#CPIToResetFedBets

8,9 mil. vizionează|1,6 K postare

About CPIToResetFedBets

July U.S. payrolls fell by 23,000, with May-June revised down by 103,000, initially cutting September hike bets. CME FedWatch now shows ~52% odds of no change and ~48% odds of a 25 bp hike, nearly a coin toss. Today's July CPI is the next test: headline and core CPI are forecast at 0.1% and 0.2% MoM, with annual rates easing from 3.5% to 3.4% and 2.6% to 2.5%. Cooler inflation could revive the weak-jobs case; a hot core print may reprice the dollar, Treasury yields, BTC and ETH.

CPIToResetFedBets Postări populare

Fixat
OKX 结构化产品导航站
OKX 结构化产品导航站
Trei oficiali ai Fed susțin majorarea dobânzii, numărul locurilor de muncă non-agricole din SUA a scăzut cu 23.000 în iulie, semnalele privind ocuparea forței de muncă și ratele dobânzilor în SUA sunt divergente: Observații asupra țintelor și prețurilor țintă pentru activele cu dublă monedă TradFi
⚖️ 美国经济现在同时出现两种信号:通胀仍让部分美联储官员保持谨慎,就业增长却几乎停了下来。 这组矛盾不会直接告诉市场涨跌,却会影响利率、企业盈利和风险预期。对 XQQQ、XNVDA、XSOXL、XAUT 等 TradFi 标的来说,影响路径也不一样。 📉 事实一:新增就业转负,但失业率没有明显上升 美国7月非农就业减少 2.3 万人,失业率为 4.1%。5 月新增就业从 12.9 万人下修至 6.3 万人,6 月从 5.7 万人下修至 2 万人,两个月合计少于此前估计 10.3 万人。 这说明,最近几个月的就业增长比最初公布的数字更弱。 但“新增就业减少”和“失业率稳定”并不矛盾:非农就业主要调查企业增加或减少了多少岗位,失业率则来自居民调查,而且会受到劳动参与率影响。7 月劳动参与率为 61.4%,较 1 月下降 0.7个百分点。 因此,4.1% 的失业率不能单独证明就业市场仍然强劲;-2.3 万的非农也不能单独证明大规模失业已经发生。 🧭 事实二:企业减少招聘,但暂未集中裁员 截至 8月1日 当周,美国首次申请失业救济人数为 19.9 万人,去年同期为 22.6 万人。6 月
Zentrova
Zentrova
TONIGHT COULD SET THE DIRECTION FOR BTC — CPI IS THE KEY TEST. 👀📊 CPI drops tonight at 8:30, and $BTC has spent the past week struggling to break above the $64K area. Now the market is waiting for one number to determine the next move. The community is also gearing up for tonight’s live discussion. 👀 📊 Current market expectations: • Headline CPI MoM: 0.1% • Core CPI MoM: 0.2% • Headline CPI YoY: 3.4%, down from 3.5% • Core CPI YoY: 2.5%, down from 2.6% The Cleveland Fed’s Nowcast is slightly different: • Headline CPI MoM: ~0.19% • Core CPI MoM: ~0.16% So why could CPI matter more than the latest jobs report? The non-farm payrolls report already pushed expectations for a September Fed rate cut lower, from around 60% to roughly 40%. But those odds have since recovered toward 48% over the past week. That means tonight’s CPI could be the next major catalyst for BTC, depending on whether inflation confirms or challenges the market’s current rate-cut expectations. #CPIToResetFedBets #AIInfraEarningsWatch #SECActsAsCLARITYWaits
Lio hunter
Lio hunter
🚨 CPI could decide whether crypto bounces… or gets hit again. 👀📊 Today’s US inflation report is the macro event to watch. The big question isn’t just whether CPI beats or misses expectations—it’s whether the data changes the market’s view of the September Fed decision. Markets are looking for roughly: 📊 Headline CPI: 3.4% YoY 📊 Core CPI: 2.5% YoY A cooler print could revive hopes for easier Fed policy and give risk assets some breathing room. A hotter print? 🔥 That could put rate-cut expectations under pressure and send volatility straight back into crypto. Meanwhile, BTC and ETH are still trying to stabilize after their recent pullback. Here’s the fresh short-term map I’m watching: 📉 BTC • Resistance: $64,280 • Support: $63,450 📉 ETH • Resistance: $1,925 • Support: $1,865 Right now, neither chart has given a convincing reversal signal. A bounce is nice—but volume needs to show up, and those resistance levels need to be reclaimed. So the real question after CPI is: 👉 Can BTC and ETH turn resistance back into support? If inflation comes in softer, crypto could finally get some breathing room. 📈 If CPI comes in hotter, expect traders to quickly reprice Fed expectations—and BTC/ETH could see another sharp move. 📉 And remember: macro releases rarely move in a straight line. We could get a violent spike, a reversal, and then the real move. I’m not calling this bounce a trend reversal yet. CPI first. Confirmation second. Prediction last. 👀 $BTC $ETH #DailyOrbit #CPIToResetFedBets #AIInfraEarningsWatch #Gold4400HavenBid
Felix.Crypto
Felix.Crypto
The crypto market is facing a critical test: is this a temporary reset, or the beginning of a deeper risk-off phase? $BTC is trading near the $64K area as investors await the U.S. July CPI report today. Markets are highly sensitive to the result because inflation will influence expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next moves. A hotter CPI could push yields higher and pressure risk assets, while softer inflation could revive expectations for easier policy. Yet the bullish case has not disappeared. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded roughly $853 million of weekly inflows, showing institutional demand remains present despite Bitcoin trading in a narrow range. The current watchlist: Core assets: $BTC$ETH$SOL$BNB Infrastructure & financial applications: $LINK$AAVE$ONDO$HYPE Higher-growth opportunities: $SUI$TAO$PENDLE$ENA$KAITO$SEI These projects provide exposure to some of the strongest structural themes in crypto: AI, RWA, stablecoins, DeFi, derivatives, and scalable blockchain infrastructure. Higher-beta tokens such as: $DOGE$PEPE$BONK$WIF$SHIB could explode higher if CPI comes in softer and risk appetite returns. But they could also face sharper selling if inflation surprises to the upside. For now, the market is watching one chain of events: CPI → Treasury yields → Fed expectations → Wall Street → Crypto. A soft CPI could become the catalyst for a broader recovery. A hot CPI could extend the consolidation and keep investors defensive. The key question isn't simply “Will $BTC go up?” It's “Which tokens are positioned to outperform if the macro environment suddenly turns favorable?” The next major move may arrive quickly. The investors who are prepared before the catalyst hits will have a very different position from those who wait for confirmation after the breakout. Follow me for daily insights and the latest updates on Crypto, AI, and Wall Street. #CPIToResetFedBets #BTCETHETFFlowsDiverge #IBITCutsBTCThreshold $BTC $ETH
Maugie Games
Maugie Games
Big moves frens Here's what bitcoin and ether traders are doing ahead of the binary U.S. CPI print
ChainRider
ChainRider
🚨 CPI NIGHT IS HERE — ONE NUMBER COULD WAKE UP THE WHOLE CRYPTO MARKET. 👀📊 US CPI drops tonight at 8:30 PM ET, and honestly… I’m a little nervous. 😅 Because this isn’t just another economic report. For $BTC, $ETH and $SOL, tonight’s inflation print could determine whether the market gets some breathing room—or another dose of volatility. The market is expecting inflation to come in slightly cooler than the previous reading. And that’s exactly what bulls want to see. 🟢 If CPI comes in softer: • Rate-hike expectations could ease • Liquidity expectations could improve • Risk appetite could return • $BTC could get a strong upside reaction 📈 🔴 If CPI comes in hotter: • Fed expectations could turn more hawkish • Yields could rise • Risk assets could get hit • BTC and altcoins could see another sharp move 📉 And then there’s the most boring scenario… 😴 CPI comes in exactly as expected. We might get a little pump, a little dump, a lot of chop—and suddenly staying up for the release feels like a terrible life decision. 😂 For me, the key is simple: I don’t need CPI to be perfect. I just don’t want it to come in hotter than expected. If inflation stays under control, I’m comfortable holding my positions and letting the market do its thing. Now we wait. 👀 CPI first. Market reaction second. Panic last. $BTC $ETH $SOL #CPI #Bitcoin #Ethereum #Solana #Crypto #Fed #DailyOrbit #DailyOrbit
Dr.Toxic🚩
Dr.Toxic🚩
🚨 BTC & ETH traders, tonight’s CPI could change everything. The jobs data gave the market a reason to breathe. But CPI could decide what happens next. 👀 Last week, nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23K, while May and June were revised down by another 103K combined. That should normally push the market toward lower rate-hike expectations. But it hasn’t. Rate expectations have moved back toward a near 50/50 split, which tells us something important: The market still doesn’t fully trust the weakness in employment. Jobs data may have opened the door to a pause. But inflation is still holding the key. 🔑 That’s why tonight’s CPI matters so much. 📊 Market expectations: • Headline CPI MoM: 0.1% • Core CPI MoM: 0.2% If CPI comes in cooler than expected, weak jobs + cooling inflation could reinforce the case for lower rate expectations. That could be a strong tailwind for BTC and ETH. 📈 But if core CPI comes in hot? The market could quickly price in a more hawkish Fed again—and crypto could face another round of repricing. 📉 And here’s the part I’m watching most closely: Don’t get distracted by headline CPI. 👉 The core monthly number could be the real market mover tonight. With rate expectations already close to a coin flip, expect volatility. We could see a violent move in both directions first—leveraged positions getting wiped out—before the market finally chooses a direction. ⚠️ The real question tonight isn’t simply: “Is CPI good or bad?” It’s this: Can cooling employment finally drag rate expectations lower, or will stubborn inflation keep the Fed hawkish? Buckle up. BTC and ETH could get their answer tonight. 👀 $BTC $ETH H $XAUT #CPI #Bitcoin #Ethereum #Crypto #Fed #DailyOrbit #DailyOrbit #CPIToResetFedBets #AIInfraEarningsWatch #Gold4400HavenBid
(浩泽)
(浩泽)
🚨 CPI could be the market’s next big reset — and crypto traders should be paying attention. One inflation number could completely change the Fed narrative. The U.S. July CPI report drops today at 8:30 AM ET, and after weaker-than-expected jobs data, markets have already started leaning toward a more dovish Fed. Now CPI has to confirm that story. Economists expect Headline CPI around 3.4% YoY and Core CPI near 2.5%. If inflation comes in softer than expected, the market could quickly price in a more accommodative Fed. That could mean: 📉 Treasury yields 📉 U.S. dollar 📈 Risk appetite 📈 BTC & ETH 📈 Potentially stronger flows into quality altcoins like $SOL, $BNB and $OKB But there’s another side. If CPI comes in hotter than expected, the “higher for longer” narrative could come roaring back. Yields and the dollar could rise, putting pressure on equities and crypto. And we all know how quickly crypto can react when macro expectations change. So today isn't just about the CPI number. It's about what that number does to Fed expectations. The real question is: Will CPI confirm the dovish narrative—or completely reset it? 👀 I’ll be watching yields, DXY, BTC reaction, and ETF flows more closely than the headline number itself. One report could set the tone for the next major move. #CPIToResetFedBets #BTCETHETFFlowsDiverge #AIInfraFundingDiverges $BTC $ETH #DailyOrbit
Calm Whale 🐳
Calm Whale 🐳
🎯 TWO KEY SCENARIOS TO WATCH: 🟢 PUMP SCENARIO — CPI < 3.4% Inflation cools faster than expected → More room for the Fed to cut interest rates → Potential weakness in the DXY. Impact on BTC: Buying pressure could push BTC above the $65,000 area, targeting $66,500–$68,000. Altcoins could also see a strong recovery rally. 🔴 DUMP SCENARIO — CPI > 3.5% Inflation pressure returns → The Fed may maintain a more hawkish stance → Potential strength in the DXY. Impact on BTC: Increased short-term selling pressure could break the $63,000 support, with BTC potentially retesting the $61,500–$62,000 zone. ⚠️ Get ready for high volatility tonight. Manage your risk carefully and avoid entering trades impulsively during major news releases!
Calm Whale 🐳
Calm Whale 🐳
🔥 TONIGHT’S MAIN EVENT (12/08): U.S. JULY CPI – THE KEY CATALYST FOR BTC’S NEXT MOVE! 🔥 At 20:30 tonight (Singapore Time), the U.S. Department of Labor will officially release the July Consumer Price Index (CPI). This is considered one of the most important economic reports for the market, as it could heavily influence expectations for Fed interest rate cuts at the upcoming September FOMC meeting. 📌 MARKET FORECAST: CPI YoY: 3.4% (Previous: 3.5%) CPI MoM: 0.1%
Mr. Fareed Ahmad 📊
Mr. Fareed Ahmad 📊
"Bitcoin is approaching a macro decision point." BTC has slipped below $64K as traders reduce risk ahead of the upcoming U.S. inflation data. But here's what I'm watching: Price alone isn't enough. I want to see how BTC reacts to the CPI number. 📈 Lower-than-expected inflation + falling yields could support risk assets. 📉 Hotter-than-expected inflation + rising yields could put pressure on BTC. The interesting trade may not be predicting CPI. It may be watching BTC's reaction after the data. Do you think BTC reacts more to CPI itself or the Fed-rate expectations that follow? #Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto #CPI $BTC #AIInfraEarningsWatch #CPIToResetFedBets #AIInfraFundingDiverges
SaniaETH
SaniaETH
The next big crypto move may not come from a new narrative—it could come from one inflation number. 👀 The crypto market is at a pretty important crossroads right now. $BTC is struggling around $64K, and with the next U.S. CPI report approaching, traders are watching inflation closely. A hotter-than-expected number could push Treasury yields higher, reduce hopes for easier Fed policy, and keep investors defensive. But I’m not ready to call this market bearish yet. Wall Street is still holding up. AI continues to drive major interest in tech, while crypto infrastructure keeps expanding into areas that were once dominated almost entirely by traditional finance. Solana is a good example. Stablecoins, RWA, and on-chain applications are continuing to grow, strengthening the case for scalable blockchain infrastructure. For me, the current watchlist breaks down into three groups: 🔵 Core leaders: $BTC$ETH$SOL$BNB$XRP 🟢 Infrastructure & tokenization: $LINK$ONDO$AAVE$HYPE 🟠 Higher-growth opportunities: $SUI$TAO$PENDLE$ENA$SEI$KAITO These aren't random names. They sit around some of the biggest themes in crypto: AI, RWA, stablecoins, DeFi, derivatives, and scalable blockchain infrastructure. Then you have the high-beta names: $DOGE$PEPE$BONK$WIF$SHIB If risk appetite suddenly returns, these can move incredibly fast. But the same leverage that makes them exciting can also make the downside brutal if macro conditions turn against crypto. So right now, I’m watching one chain very closely: CPI → Treasury yields → Fed expectations → Wall Street → Crypto. A softer inflation print could bring risk appetite back and trigger a broader crypto rotation. A hotter number? We could see more caution, more consolidation, and possibly another shakeout. And honestly, I think the biggest mistake right now is asking: “Which token will pump?” The better question is: “Which projects already have the strongest catalysts if the market suddenly turns bullish?” 🎯 #DailyOrbit