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After Friday's close, the commodity market showed a distinct divergence pattern amid intertwined macro tightening expectations and geopolitical supply chain concerns: silver faced systemic deleveraging and a breakdown plunge, copper prices were suppressed by risk aversion and declined consecutively, while natural gas exhibited an extreme divergence of "weak US, strong Europe" due to differing fundamentals between the US and Europe.
🥈 Silver: Macro tightening and liquidity squeeze lead to a breakdown plunge
Silver was the weakest performer on Friday. Driven by stronger-than-expected US Q3 GDP and a rebound in core PCE inflation fueling expectations of a Fed rate hike in December, the holding cost of non-interest-bearing assets rose sharply. Coupled with a global tech stock correction prompting some institutions to liquidate assets to cover margin calls, silver experienced concentrated long liquidations. Silver, with its high speculative nature and industrial attributes, saw its decline significantly amplified by weakening industrial demand expectations.
· Offshore trend: COMEX New York silver front-month contract plunged 3.37% to $52.22/oz. During the night and after-hours trading in Beijing early Saturday, spot silver further broke below the key psychological $50/oz level, hitting the lowest since November 24, 2025, with a cumulative monthly drop close to 18% in October.
· Onshore linkage: Domestic Shanghai silver front-month contract followed with a sharp drop, closing down over 6% in the day session, with the night session (contract 2612) decline expanding to 6.8%, and a single-day capital outflow of 1.025 billion yuan.
🔴 Copper: Profit-taking by bulls and macro pressure lead to two consecutive days of weakness
COMEX copper extended its previous day's high-level pullback on Friday. Under strong GDP and sticky inflation driving high interest rate expectations, US tech stock earnings disappointments suppressed overall risk appetite, prompting bulls to take profits from industrial metals in line with precious metals breaking down.
· Market data: On October 30, COMEX New York copper front-month contract opened at $6.5910/lb, dipped intraday to $6.4505/lb, and closed at $6.5095/lb, down $0.0930 or 1.41% from the previous settlement; settlement price was $6.4820/lb. This marked the second consecutive trading day of decline after copper fell from a two-week high on October 29, indicating a clear retreat by bulls amid increased macro risks.
🔥 Natural Gas: Divergent US-Europe trends, US weak and volatile, Europe tight supply-demand
Natural gas markets showed a clear cross-market divergence, with the US market suppressed by stable supply-demand and warm winter expectations, while the European market surged due to tight inventories and ongoing cold winter risks.
· US market (weak and volatile): NYMEX natural gas distant-month contracts showed limited volatility; contract 3001 settled slightly down $0.012 at $4.6990; mini natural gas contract 3010 settled slightly up $0.01 at $3.5300. US domestic production remains near peak levels, lacking upward momentum overall.
· European market (strong surge): Due to shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz affecting summer replenishment and El Niño climate uncertainties, European natural gas inventories are only about 75%, the lowest for this period since records began in 2011. Dutch TTF December futures surged 4.9% in a day to €102.78/MWh (equivalent to $115), returning to nearly a four-year high, with a monthly gain of about 36% and a year-to-date increase of 256%.
Overall, silver and copper are in a macro suppression cycle driven by high interest rate expectations and dollar liquidity contraction. Silver follows a deep breakdown and bottom-seeking weak logic, while copper is undergoing high-level profit-taking. Natural gas continues to show a structural "weak US gas, strong European gas" pattern amid ample US inventories and tight European supplies.$FIL FIL is holding a market cap of over a billion dollars, but the entire network's real daily storage revenue is only $4.
Miners' data centers have rigid fiat expenses every day for electricity and bandwidth. The mined coins, aside from being dumped on the secondary market to pay electricity bills, have no other outlet. This creates a vicious cycle: the more the business seems to run actively on the surface, the larger the sell pressure that gets dumped.
If no new money comes in off-exchange to support the price, this purely extractive supply-demand structure is doomed to a continuous decline.
#FIL
$FIL
👇After a $6.3 billion security incident, ETFs are buying, large addresses are transferring, with two opposing directions of funds
The aftermath of a certain platform's security incident is still unfolding. BTC once dipped to 76,314, now around 77,800; ETH has rebounded to 2,268; SOL is at 95–96, having fallen below 100. The Fear & Greed Index slid from 70 at the start of the month to 36.
$BTC around 77,800. ETFs had a single-day net outflow of $643 million, the largest since June, ending a four-day streak of inflows; but at the panic bottom, about $135 million was absorbed, almost the only party taking on the sell-off.
$ETH around 2,268. ETFs have had net outflows for 23 consecutive trading days, the longest streak since listing, with a cumulative outflow of about $1.61 billion in October. However, staking volume hit a record high of 43.8 million tokens, accounting for 35.9% of supply. ETFs are selling “paper ETH,” while on-chain locking of “real ETH” continues, with 2,213 as a key support level below.
$SOL around 95–96. ETFs had a single-day net inflow of about $6.12 million, totaling $12.87 million over 7 days, the only one among the three coins still receiving funds; but about 1.223 million SOL (worth $117 million) was transferred to Coinbase Prime on the 31st.
In short: The security incident was the trigger, but the money’s choices are more honest than the price — BTC’s ETF is tugging back and forth, ETH whales are locking, SOL’s ETF is receiving while large addresses are transferring. The incremental inflow has yet to come.
#加密行业协同守护资产安全 The most revealing thing about the $XRP trade circulating this week is not the entry band but the vocabulary around it. A holder who bought the top now describes each drawdown as a geological layer: a 20% fall became "mid-term sediment," a 50% fall became "long-term value across a civilization," and the present loss became a museum piece too fragile to remove from the dig. That progression is the oldest artifact in crypto, not the newest. The setup itself is narrow. Entry is set at 1.2400 to 1.2#英特尔Q4指引不及预期，股价暴跌近30% After hours, Intel released a Q4 guidance far below expectations, closing down 28.58%, marking the largest single-day drop since 1974.
The company expects Q4 revenue of $15-16 billion and adjusted EPS of $0.25, significantly below market expectations of $17 billion and $0.43 EPS. The main drag is the continued weakness in PC demand, with management warning that the PC downturn will last at least until the first half of 2027; combined with the explosion and shutdown of the Israel Fab28 wafer fab, this incident caused a total revenue loss of $600 million, with $300 million allocated to Q4, also dragging down gross margin.
The negative news dragged down the entire chip sector, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index also falling sharply. The market is asking: can the next Nvidia save the day?
The fundamentals and sectors of the two companies are basically different. Intel's core is PC and general server CPUs, with the root cause of the crash being weak consumer PC cycles; Nvidia's core business is AI data center GPUs, with revenue hardly relying on PCs.
If Nvidia's earnings report and cloud providers' capital expenditures exceed expectations, it can only stabilize sentiment in the AI computing power branch, but cannot reverse the downward pressure on PC demand, making it difficult to lift the entire semiconductor sector.
Next, focus on Nvidia's earnings report and cloud capital expenditures to see if AI computing power can withstand the sector's panic selling pressure.
⚠️Personal opinion, not investment advice. #OKX, ICE, and Trade.xyz join forces to promote perpetual contracts entering the compliant US market. Simply put, OKX, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange (ICE), and Trade.xyz have teamed up to legally operate "perpetual contracts" in the US.
The division of labor is clear: ICE handles US regulatory licensing (the toughest job), Trade.xyz provides the underlying technology, and OKX is responsible for attracting customers (using its 120 million users as a traffic source).
But this is just the beginning; the US regulatory agency (CFTC) has not yet given approval, so it's still in the planning stage.
The most important point is that even if it really happens, it definitely won't be the kind of gameplay we talked about before. Previously, people in the group would casually open high leverage positions and hold on to the end, not even knowing who the counterparty was when liquidated. In the US, there are many rules: leverage is strictly limited, identity checks are thorough, and owing money to the platform is impossible.
In short, the official authorities have taken control of the market. Want to bet $10 to win $700 or go all-in to get rich overnight? No chance. Better to be a steady, law-abiding citizen. $BTC I said, on the day $TRX was stolen at Binance @binance, how did it suddenly shoot up with a big bullish candlestick?
It turns out the hacker, before Tether froze the funds, swapped 234 million $USDT for 638 million $TRX on SunSwap.
Speaking of which, stablecoins can be frozen, but can't $TRX be frozen?
If it can't be frozen, having such a huge amount hanging overhead is a bit risky.Smart money with a cost basis of 3.77 in $VVV is selling again; if they sell all, they are expected to make about $11.79 million 😂
One address with a low cost basis of about $3.77 moved coins to an exchange again after about 19 days. In roughly 3 hours, about 100,000 $VVV were deposited into Coinbase, valued at about $2.32 million. Since June 2026, it is suspected that about $14.28 million worth of tokens have been sold. Currently, about 663,400 tokens have been moved to the exchange, with an average deposit price of about $21.53. Calculating profit based on this average price and cost, selling could yield about $11.786 million, a return of about 471.2%.
The perpetual contract on OKEx is currently around 23.23, up about 3.59% in 24 hours, with a trading volume of about $15.54 million. The cost basis is near the floor, yet it’s still climbing. It makes me envious; these kinds of trades just get better the more they sell.
Those who bought at low cost are slowly selling, while buyers are still waiting for even lower prices. This kind of accounting is often the most painful in the crypto world.
For beginners, it’s recommended to watch more and trade less; when buying coins, only buy $BTCApple itself also fell 1.2% on Friday, but still managed to take back the global No.1 spot from Nvidia.
It closed at $344.63 on Friday, having dipped to $334.35 intraday, then recovered most of the losses by the close.
Its market cap is calculated at $5.03 trillion, while Nvidia fell 4.2% that day to $204.64, with a market cap of $4.93 trillion, a difference of about $100 billion between them.
This is the first time since the end of July that Apple has reclaimed the top spot, having risen about 27% this year.
Honestly, this No.1 position feels a bit like a "misery contest."
It's not that Apple suddenly surged, but AI stocks fell even harder; Intel crashed 28.58% on Friday, and the market is starting to doubt when the AI money will actually be made.
I'm holding off for now, waiting for Apple's earnings report after the market closes on Monday.
Only if it stands back at $348.91, which was the closing price on October 29, will I feel relieved.
If it falls below $334.35, the intraday low on Friday, the claim of a bottom in this round will be invalid.
The change of the throne itself is not important; what matters is that the market has already started voting with its feet. $AAPL $NVDA $INTC
#苹果新CEO迎来iPhone18首份成绩单 #Federal Reserve officials signal rate hikes, December expectations still divided The Fed’s hand on the table says “pause,” but under the table, someone has already cocked the gun.
At the October meeting, the vote was 10-2 to hold steady, but the two dissenting votes from Cook and Harker directly called for an immediate 25 basis point hike — it’s rare for board members to vote against like this. Even more intriguing is the role reversal: previously the most hawkish, Logan and Kashkari this time supported a pause, while Logan immediately said the FOMC needs at least two more 25 basis point hikes, just “gradually.” Wash’s stance is even more straightforward: no forward guidance, no preset meeting outcomes.
In plain terms: some want to pull the trigger immediately, some want to aim a bit longer, but no one says the gun is out of bullets.
The market has already priced in a 78%–85% probability of a rate hike in December. This means that the December 8-9 meeting is already assumed by traders to result in a hike. The disagreement isn’t about “whether to hike,” but “whether to hike again after that, and when to stop.”
The asset side is already voting with its feet: gold has fallen about 29% from its yearly high, U.S. Treasury yields are stuck near 5%, and the dollar index holds at 101.9 — the noose of high rates and a strong dollar hasn’t loosened. For those holding long positions, this isn’t a “bad news fully priced in” placebo; it’s a downward-pressing blade still cutting down.
So don’t interpret “December expectations divided” as “possibly no hike.” The real signal is: the Fed is already split internally, and the market is betting on the hawks winning.
That’s what Dage said, you decide $BTC A warning before going to sleep: The sell orders above are much thicker than the buy orders below, so I’m not jumping in this round 🧱.
— Who’s stepping in? In one hour, the positions of the three major mainstream coins and ZEC all increased, SOL up by 1.24%, ZEC up by 1.37%, but prices are mixed, positions increased without price following.
— What’s stored? BTC has the densest short orders stacked between 78,400 and 78,800 above, with a 25.48 million sell wall still standing at 78,350; below, there are buy orders between 76,800 and 77,400, but only 14.97 million at 76,000.
— Why is it dangerous? Within 1% up and down, sell orders at 241 million are pressing against buy orders at 172 million, an imbalance of 16.8%. Of the 85.57 million liquidations across the network in one day, longs account for 61.8%, with 35,165 people wiped out. Among SOL liquidations, longs are 2.0398 million versus shorts at 147,200; those chasing highs are still being forced out.
— The divergence is clearer over the day: SOL positions increased by 3.54%, ZEC positions decreased by 3.56%, directions exactly opposite; cost-wise, BTC tops at 0.0099%, ETH only 0.0005%.
— Trading volume also signals: total network volume is 72.17 billion, down by half, but open interest remains at 137.349 billion. Money hasn’t left but volume is gone first, the easiest setup for a fake breakout.
— What to do now? I’m holding for now, waiting for either the upper wall to be eaten away or the lower wall to be broken through. Whichever happens first, I’ll follow that direction.
Anyway, no rush to save anyone in this game; I’ll protect my principal first 🔒.
Alright, that’s my analysis for now, lights out and good night 💤Title: $CRV Losing Its DeFi Dominance: Curve Falls Behind Uniswap $CRV is showing clear signs of losing its former dominance. Once considered a DeFi blue chip and a major player in stablecoin trading, Curve Finance now has just $104 million in 24-hour trading volume, ranking 14th among DEX platforms. Meanwhile, Uniswap ($UNI ) has recorded approximately $1.545 billion in daily volume, nearly 15 times Curve's activity. Curve remains an established DeFi protocol with a strong history, but curren$DOOD market makers are too lazy to even pretend anymore.
In the past 30 days, spot trading has directly taken away 64% of the market cap's chips. The circulating supply on the market has been drained, yet the shorts are still paying interest daily and stubbornly holding on.
Fighting to the death against such a large buying volume is purely fueling the main force's short squeeze. If this position even pulls up a bit, a chain reaction stampede of shorts will immediately break out.
#DOOD
$DOOD
👇Brent crude oil rose 13.6% in October, marking the fourth consecutive month of gains. On October 30, the December contract expiring that day closed at $117.64 per barrel, while U.S. WTI crude closed at $104.12, up 15.2% in October.
On October 30, another oil tanker was attacked in the Strait of Hormuz, raising market concerns that the conflict with Iran could escalate further after the U.S. midterm elections, potentially impacting crude oil transportation and supply.
The rise in oil prices is a primary reason for the Federal Reserve to adjust monetary policy. If oil prices remain high, energy prices such as gasoline may first push overall inflation higher, and fuel and transportation costs could gradually transmit to prices of other goods and services.
Although the core PCE does not directly include energy prices, it may still be indirectly affected by this cost transmission. Simply put, the rise in oil prices mainly increases expectations for Fed rate hikes, and unless the situation in the Strait of Hormuz is resolved quickly, it will be difficult for the Fed to return to a monetary easing policy, i.e., cutting rates.
The prevailing view is that Trump will launch a new round of strikes against Iran after the midterm elections, but how effective this will be is uncertain, especially given Iran's theocratic regime, which is unlikely to be subdued easily in one go.
Reposted from phyrexNext Week's US-Iran Situation + Midterm Elections: Several Possible Scenarios and Their Impact on Crude Oil and US Stocks Based on the current progress of the Doha negotiations, Trump's public statements, and market pricing, the following high-probability scenarios are outlined (for reference only, not investment advice): 1. Most Likely Scenario: Negotiations with Posturing, Continued Tug-of-War (Highest Probability) Both sides are unwilling to soften first; negotiations continue but conditions remain stuck (domestic pressure on whoever lifts the blockade/sanctions first). Around Wednesday, signals of "temporary restraint, continued mediation" may be released. - Crude Oil: Volatile with a slight downward bias; Brent crude may fall $5-10 from highs but large declines are unlikely (risk premium remains). - US Stocks: Increased volatility followed by stabilization and rebound; tech and tech-related stocks relatively benefit; overall neutral to slightly bullish. 2. Optimistic Scenario: Substantive Breakthrough in Negotiations, Confirmed Direct Talks or Rapid Strait Reopening Iran softens stance, US sends positive signals, mediation by Qatar and others effective, Hormuz-related plan implemented. - Crude Oil: Rapid plunge; Brent crude expected to test $80-95 range (risk premium significantly reduced). - US Stocks: Violent rebound, possibly the strongest single-day gain of the year; Nasdaq and S&P lead gains; rate cut expectations reemerge. 3. Pessimistic Scenario: "Brief but Intense" Strike Post-Election, Conflict Escalation Around Wednesday, US military strikes remaining targets; Iran expands retaliation (attacking Gulf bases or oil field-related facilities). - Crude Oil: Sharp surge; Brent crude hits $120-140 range; insurance and aviationThe most counterintuitive thing this week: the largest exchange hack in history, $6.3 billion, and $BTC only dropped about 5% in 24 hours.
The incident happened on 10/29, and the next day BTC briefly fell below 77,000, with over $1 billion in contract liquidations. On 10/30, the US spot ETF saw a net outflow of $643 million in a single day. Today, withdrawals resumed in batches, and the price is still hovering between 77,000 and 78,000. The much-anticipated "withdrawal recovery rally" did not materialize.
My review boils down to two points:
First, the reason it didn’t crash this time is mainly because the platform covered the losses out of pocket (officially said to have compensated about 95%), which doesn’t mean the risk has decreased. Hot wallets were breached, and any centralized platform could face this.
Second, about 3 hours after withdrawals resumed, approximately $2 billion worth of BTC, ETH, and stablecoins were transferred to unknown addresses. People say they trust, but their actions speak otherwise.
My reminder to myself: don’t keep all your long-term coins in one place; only keep as much as you need for trading; "the platform will cover losses" should not be your risk management strategy.
Did you adjust how you store your assets this week? Or do you still think it’s unnecessary? $UNI was set to sell 25% at 7.31 yesterday. After playing basketball, I received a notification that the trade was executed, this is part of the trading position. The overall position is close to 17% profit, which I think is a bit too fast... Let's do a swing trade, wait for Binance's gap to be filled, then buy back, while also closing the hedge position.
This is after I reduced part of my HYPE position, now reducing part of altcoins.
Next week, the US stock market is expected to rebound, but it may not reverse, and the aftershocks of 10/30, I believe, won't disappear so quickly.
Today Binance opened withdrawals, but it wasn't taken as good news, even BNB showed little movement, indicating the market is still panicking. Monday's crypto market may not follow the US stock market, probably even more panicked.
Be cautious with swing trades, I suggest not to follow blindly From a floating profit of 300,000 to a 40% shrinkage in the account, the most fragile thing has never been the position, but the human heart. Have you noticed that the ones most willing to leverage in this round are actually not the old-timers in the crypto circle? Last night I came across an account review that left a deep impression. SNDK cost 1223, floating profit over 30,000 dollars; SOXL cost 80.61, floating profit 300,000 dollars; SKHY cost 134.62, floating profit nearly 50,000 dollars—on paper, these are clearly impressive numbers. But the total assets dropped from tens of millions to over six million, a drawdown close to 40%. The problem is not in stock selection, but that these floating profits were never treated as part of the risk budget. SanDisk's Q1 revenue increased 378% year-over-year, and the Q2 guidance is also strong; fundamentally, there is no fault to find. But assets like semiconductors and crypto have never moved along the earnings line, but rather along the risk appetite line. SOXL is a triple-leveraged ETF; it acts as an amplifier when rising, and also when falling. When tech stocks start to tremble at high levels, BTC and ETH usually do not react first; the first to move are altcoins and leveraged tokens because their holders have the thinnest risk budgets. My own observation is that the cross-market rhythm these days is a bit subtle. The Nasdaq is still grinding at high levels, the AI narrative has not dissipated, but funds in leveraged products are becoming more selective, and the willingness to chase highs is decreasing. At such times, BTC often plays the role of a safe haven, ETH follows the broader market, and altcoins are the first to lose attention. The bullish path is: as long as tech stocks do not experience continuous sharp declines, crypto's risk appetite can still hold, and funds will flow between BTC and a few strong narratives.A while ago I said gold would go to 3500, now it's 3875, less than 10% left $XAU
From 5598 at the end of January to 3875 today, nine months, down 31%. $XAUT
But most people don't know the other side of gold:
In January 1980, it peaked at $850 → dropped to 252 in August 1999, down 70%, took 19 and a half years;
And it only got back to 850 in January 2008 — it took 28 years to break even.
So don't rush to shout "the bottom is in." The real risk isn't how much it falls, but how long you have to endure after the fall.DOGE's "decentralization" basically does not hold at the physical layer, this is my conclusion after reviewing the hash rate distribution.
First, look at the numbers. F2Pool takes about 36% of the blocks, ViaBTC about 23%, AntPool about 18%, the top three combined account for 77%, far exceeding the 60% threshold. In over 50,000 blocks in one quarter, only two blocks did not have merged mining marks. In other words, the machines standing guard for DOGE are almost all queued and called by mining pools.
Next, why is this the case? Merged mining allows miners to mine DOGE while mining LTC, paying one electricity bill but earning two salaries. Who wouldn't want to settle with a stable big pool? What's more amusing is that in September this year, miners took more than 36 million USD from DOGE, but only over 6 million USD from LTC block rewards. Nominally it's just a side benefit, but in reality, $DOGE is the main source of income.
Some might say mining pools are not the same as miners, and hash power can switch pools in minutes, so it doesn't count as a monopoly. That's true, but the block packaging templates are provided by the mining pools, and the control is in their hands. It's like a community mailroom with only three couriers; the packages nominally belong to everyone, but whether to deliver and whose package to deliver first is decided by them. #DailyOrbit $ETH ｜ Exchange hacks are a huge positive for ETH, with a strong rally expected within 1-2 weeks
First, the spot ETH available on exchanges is directly withdrawn, further thinning liquidity.
Hundreds of thousands of ETH have flowed out directly from exchange hot wallets, leaving the exchange spot pools. Currently, the ETH balances on major CEXs are already at multi-year lows, with ETFs continuously accumulating and institutional treasuries hoarding coins, so the spot pools are getting shallower and shallower.
This large amount of spot exiting is equivalent to a big chunk of sellable spot being removed. After market depth thins, buy orders of the same size can more easily push prices up; supply contraction is the fundamental support.
Second, the hacker’s DeFi lending position inherently carries a passive short squeeze attribute.
The hacker knows that stolen USDT can be frozen by Tether, so before the address is frozen, they collateralize the stolen USDT into Aave and borrow ETH.
The essence of this position: collateral is USDT, debt is ETH, effectively a natural short.
Every upward move in ETH increases the value of the hacker’s debt, causing the health factor to decline continuously. Once the price reaches the liquidation threshold, the collateralized USDT will be automatically liquidated, with the protocol selling the collateral and buying back ETH to repay the debt. The moment liquidation occurs is new buying pressure in the market.
The hacker is not actively going long on the market, but this position is price-dependent; when the price reaches the trigger point, it automatically triggers buybacks. #DailyOrbit Don't be fooled by the press releases about Qatar's mediation; Brent crude oil has already surged to 117, hitting a six-month high. What kind of easing is that? This is the death knell for inflation. As long as crude oil stubbornly stays high, the Fed's dream of cutting interest rates is completely shattered, and this dull high-interest knife will keep cutting into the market.
Look at $BZ crude oil: the core disputes between the US and Iran remain unresolved. The US wants nuclear concessions; Iran wants sanctions lifted. They can't reach an agreement at the table, so oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz will keep getting attacked. The Middle East situation is a constant tug-of-war of fighting and negotiating. As long as the geopolitical risk premium can't be squeezed out, crude oil won't fall deeply. At this time, don't try to short based on news headlines; underlying inventory and shipping costs are very rigid, so high oil price volatility is the norm.
Look at $BTC Bitcoin: macro pressure is too great. Oil prices won't come down, so inflation can't be suppressed, and the Fed can only stubbornly maintain high interest rates. There is no fresh liquidity off-exchange; ETFs are all short-term money without vision. Bitcoin is now propped up by sentiment, oscillating at a critical level with heavy overhead resistance.
Look at $XAUT gold: this is the truly resilient hard currency. Geopolitical conflicts are endless, combined with sticky inflation, safe-haven funds and central bank buying are firmly supporting the bottom. As long as the Middle East tension string remains taut, gold's resilience far exceeds that of the crypto world. Don't use short-term volatility to trap long-term logic.
In summary, don't trust politicians' words; just watch the legs of crude oil. #卡塔尔斡旋美伊谈判，油价仍受冲突风险支撑 BTC has rebounded, but I'm not in a hurry to call a reversal yet.
The verified quote on November 1 was about $77,866, compared to $81,274 on October 28, still about 4.2% lower. The price has risen in the past few days, but the space lost earlier hasn't been recovered. My judgment is: treat it as a recovery after a sharp drop for now, which is not enough to confirm a trend strengthening.
Next, focus on observing $78,000. Whether it can hold after breaking through is more meaningful than a brief surge. If it stabilizes, then see if it can continue to hold around $80,000; if it repeatedly surges and then falls back, be cautious of the recovery weakening again.
Below, consider around $77,200 as a risk observation zone. This is an observation level set based on recent quotes, not a confirmed support. If it breaks below and fails to recover for a long time, my judgment of a short-term recovery becomes invalid.
I prefer to wait for price confirmation before considering opportunities. Missing out on some gains is acceptable; mistaking a rebound for a new trend could be a bigger cost.
#BTC财库优先股融资升温 Binance has already replenished about 95% of the stolen assets, and the risks of a bank run and industry credit contagion are basically under control.
Some say that with such a huge black swan event, BTC still holding up shows the market is strong.
But my view is more neutral.
The stolen BTC and ETH have not seen large-scale sell-offs for now; instead, the hackers have exchanged some stablecoins and altcoins for ETH. In other words, the funds mainly changed holders and did not immediately turn into market selling pressure.
In the short term, this indeed reduces selling pressure. But these stolen assets remain potential chips, and whether they will be transferred to exchanges, OTC, or mixing channels in the future still needs to be observed. It cannot be simply understood as permanently locked.
Therefore, my judgment on BTC remains unchanged, with a high probability of continuing wide-range oscillation.
Regarding the US stock market,
OpenAI has lowered its fundraising target, and Federal Reserve officials continue to signal rate hikes, indicating the market has begun to reassess AI and high-valuation assets. In the past, everyone only looked at growth and imagination space; now, they are more concerned about a practical question:
"With so much money invested, how much can be earned back in the end?"
Google continues to expand AI and data center investments, and Intel also faces high capital expenditures, cash flow, and industry transformation pressures. AI may still be the most important direction in the future, but a correct direction does not mean any price is worth buying. Huge company investments do not guarantee corresponding returns for shareholders.
This is neither bullish nor bearish; I just feel the current risk-reward ratio is not high, making it hard to earn particularly meaningful money.
Whether to build positions on pullbacks, add positions, or keep base positions is more about psychological balance and may not significantly help overall returns.
Managing cash as wealth management is also a form of return and an active choice. When there are no sufficiently good opportunities, waiting itself is a strategy.
Keep as much cash as possible and wait for the odds to truly be in your favor.
When there is no opportunity, not participating also means no loss.
But if you can’t control yourself and buy recklessly, you will really lose everything.[Brent $BZ Approaches $118, OPEC+ Holds Steady, Will Oil Prices Keep Holding Up?]
OPEC+ has decided to keep the December production quotas unchanged. On the surface, there is no new action, but in reality, amid already disrupted supply, they are not rushing to increase output for now. The seven countries had already restored the 1.65 million barrels per day cut in September, but ongoing Middle East conflicts continue to affect exports, and most members' actual production remains below their quotas. Reuters reports that OPEC+ production is still over 3 million barrels per day less than pre-war levels.
Oil prices have already reflected this tension. Brent crude $BZ rose more than 2% last Friday, once nearing $118. The IEA expects global oil demand to decline by 2.5 million barrels per day year-on-year in Q4 2026, with high oil prices suppressing consumption; meanwhile, global inventories remain 509 million barrels below pre-war levels as of the end of September. The biggest challenge in the oil market now is weakening demand while supply has not smoothly recovered.
Therefore, this decision provides some support for oil prices, but the real factors determining future trends are whether Middle East transport can resume and how the November 29 meeting will arrange quotas for 2027. Sustained high oil prices will increase energy inflation pressure and may make it harder for rate cut expectations to gain momentum; this represents an indirect macroeconomic pressure on the crypto market.$UNI
Uniswap's evolving fee mechanism introduces a different dimension to UNI's token economics. Protocol fees are now active across all V2 pools and selected V3 pools, with collected assets used in a mechanism involving UNI burns. This creates a more direct connection between protocol activity and token supply, although actual impact depends on fee generation and usage.$SNDK 1377 made a profit of over 30,000 USD, cost 1223
$SOXL 108 made a profit of over 300,000 USD, cost 80.61
$SKHY 157.12 made a profit of nearly 50,000 USD, cost 134.62
From over 10 million USD in the account to now over 6 million USD #SanDisk Q1 revenue up 378% YoY, Q2 revenue guidance strong
Originally, the market was optimistic about SanDisk's earnings report, expectations were high, many were waiting for the earnings release to take off, and even the pre-market leaned bullish.
But who could have predicted the sudden black swan event that disrupted everything—the “wallet incident” crashed global risk assets, and the semiconductor sector collectively panicked.
In front of big money, retail investors' expectations are like open cards. The earnings good news we were optimistic about simply couldn't withstand systemic panic; the good news directly turned into a pretext for selling.
It's not that individual stocks have fundamental problems now, but the entire risk appetite has been crushed, with negative news piling up layer upon layer. You think it's the bottom, but there's still a deeper mid-mountain level below.
The best choice at this stage is to control your hands, stay out of the market and watch, wait for this wave of panic to be fully digested and for the sector to truly stop falling and stabilize, then look for opportunities again. Don't rush to catch a falling knife; patience is more valuable than position size right now.The Bitcoin discount at that major US exchange has now widened to the largest this year
A wider discount
does not mean the US buy-side has disappeared
Another major exchange recently suspended withdrawals, so arbitrage funds couldn't move through, which naturally caused this price gap to widen
Keep an eye on whether this price gap will gradually narrow once withdrawals resume
$BTC US and A-shares are falling simultaneously, with Intel and Google plunging significantly, and the VIX fear index rising rapidly. Looking back at history, there are currently three unfilled gaps in the VIX: April 14, 2025, April 8, 2026, and a newly emerged gap from yesterday. Statistical data shows that the probability of these gaps being filled within 180 trading days is about 97%.
Amid the concentrated release of panic sentiment, I choose to build positions in US stock indices in batches, with a strategy of buying more as prices fall, only holding spot positions and avoiding leverage. I understand that high probability does not mean certainty; the market always has a small chance of extreme events, and these gaps may also remain unfilled for a long time.
This is not an all-in gamble but a left-side strategy based on historical statistics, strictly maintaining position pacing and controlling each investment carefully. When the market is panicking, what is tested is not prediction but patience and risk control, patiently waiting for volatility to subside and gaps to be repaired. #美联储官员释放加息信号，12月预期仍存分歧 After Binance encountered a major security incident, a question began to attract the attention of the entire crypto market: Who will hackers target next? Will it be large exchanges like OKX, Coinbase, Bybit, or institutional custodians, market makers, or even private whales holding massive assets? I believe that what deserves caution in this incident is not only the scale of the stolen funds but also the industry security issues reflected by the attack pattern. 1. Which areas might be the focus next? From major security incidents publicly disclosed in recent years, attackers' targets are expanding from single smart contract vulnerabilities to the entire crypto financial infrastructure. Three areas deserve special attention: 1. Large centralized exchanges: Binance, OKX, Coinbase, Bybit, Bitget, etc. They manage a large amount of user assets and involve complex wallets, signatures, permissions, and internal operation systems. However, there is currently no reliable evidence indicating which one might be the next attack target. 2. Institutional custody and market makers: BitGo, Fireblocks, Wintermute, Cumberland, etc. They connect a large amount of institutional funds and trading infrastructure. If there are security issues in underlying permissions or supply chains, the potential impact could affect multiple market participants. 3. Cross-chain bridges, DeFi, and private whales: Cross-chain infrastructure, stablecoin settlement systems, and private wallets holding large amounts of crypto assets also deserve vigilance. Especially individual whales, their secu$CORE has been delisted from 27 out of 38 exchanges, and even Sun Ge has led the way in withdrawing nodes.
Now the CORE project is basically in shock.
But the most critical issue is not that no one is buying, but that there is still over 10% of the total circulating supply hanging as black market tokens. The ones stolen by hackers and leaked through vulnerabilities add up to over 100 million tokens labeled as "source unknown," which could be dumped at any time.
The daily on-chain transaction fees now can't even buy a cup of Starbucks, with no buying pressure at all. With such a dry liquidity depth, any token dump will have no one to absorb it. The core team is clever though; they arranged a control handover, which is basically just packaging the exit in a more sophisticated way.
#CORE
$CORE
👇#BTC continues to fluctuate, with subsequent trends influenced by multiple factors
BTC rapidly dropped from above $81,000 this week, reaching a low of $76,265, effectively breaking below the $78,670 iron bottom range repeatedly tested in September and October. The previous support has now turned into resistance. Daily highs continue to decline, confirming a bearish trend. The RSI hit a new low since mid-August but is not yet deeply oversold, indicating there is still room for selling pressure to ease. The $76,424 level is the last lifeline of the August uptrend.
Funding pressure is more persistent: Outflows from the US spot BTC ETF have solidified from a single-day shock into a monthly trend. The total net outflow for October reached $515 million, marking the fifth net outflow month in 2026; on Friday alone, there was a net outflow of $440 million, wiping out the cumulative inflows of the previous four days. Coinbase premiums remain negative, and institutional incremental funds have yet to return.
Currently, support appears near $76,500, with prices rebounding to around $78,000, representing a technical correction after the decline rather than a trend reversal. Buying mainly consists of contract short covering and short-term bottom-fishing funds, not a systematic return of institutional allocations. Weekend trading was light, and the sustainability of the rebound needs to be verified after the US stock market opens on Monday and liquidity returns. The $80,000 mark is a short-term dividing line between strength and weakness. $BTC $ETH On October 30, the US tech sector came under pressure, gold and silver both dropped significantly, and US Treasury bonds strengthened. This market movement sounded a warning for me: don't simply label assets as safe havens and feel at ease. Gold is influenced by interest rate expectations and capital positions, silver adds industrial demand attributes, and tech stock valuations are tied to growth expectations and financing costs. Normally, each follows its own logic, but during a round of capital adjustment, they all fall together.
Holding many types of assets does not equal risk diversification. If the underlying logic for buying is all betting on easing and waiting for liquidity to be injected, even if the assets look diverse, essentially you are gambling on the same macro direction. This time there is also the hidden risk of rising oil prices; high energy prices will drag inflation, making the interest rate problem even harder to resolve, and the comfortable trading range narrows further.
A simultaneous downturn does not directly negate the long-term value of gold allocation, but it reminds me to re-examine the underlying exposures in the portfolio and be wary of this false diversification trap. The most honest judgment of the current $ETH position is: the direction has not yet been chosen, waiting is more informative than betting. The low volatility, back-and-forth pinning consolidation structure is essentially a stalemate where both bulls and bears are waiting for the other side to make a mistake first. A rebound driven purely by liquidation usually fades quickly, and any directional position before a volume breakout has an unfavorable risk-reward ratio. The real signal will not come from the repeated tugging around 2260, but from the moment of a volume breakout above 2295 or a volume breakdown below 2170—before that, observing whether the funding rate continues to turn positive, whether ETF outflows show a turning point, and whether the long-short ratio cools down from the crowded level of 2.71 is more meaningful than choosing a direction now. $MSFT's bullish case depends on whether incremental revenue from Azure and AI products can cover capital expenditures for computing power. Tech stocks weakened on Friday due to deepening concerns over AI valuations, and the market no longer rewards simply "investing more." If cloud orders convert into revenue and gross margins remain stable, AI investments have evidence of returns; if capacity expansion leads and customers pay slowly, capital intensity will suppress free cash flow.From indirect negotiations to confirmed direct talks, the US-Iran negotiations in Qatar continue. The implementation plan for the Strait of Hormuz has been compressed from "7 days" to "2 days," but the order of execution remains a key hurdle! So far, the US and Iran have held multilateral talks in Doha, Qatar, with multiple parties continuously withdrawing. Previously, the US Secretary of State also confirmed direct dialogue between the US and Iran, which does not conflict with the earlier indirect negotiations. #卡塔尔斡旋美伊谈判，油价仍受冲突风险支撑 Clearly, the US-Iran negotiations are multi-threaded: direct US-Iran contact, intermediaries conducting indirect talks, mediation, guarantees, and private dialogues. These are conventional methods and also show that multiple parties are intensively pushing for the possibility of US-Iran peace talks. The main concern is that after the midterm elections, both sides might lose control again, especially since this loss of control could spill over the risk of US-Iran war into the Oman Strait and Saudi Arabia, making the situation even more uncontrollable. Currently, the effective optimistic information is that Iran's previously agreed condition to restore the Strait within 7 days has been compressed to 2 days, showing substantial progress. However, how both sides execute remains an issue: whoever acts first will face political pressure at home to "surrender or admit defeat," so both sides remain strong and refuse to be the first to concede. The only hope now lies with the mediating country; whoever can guarantee both sides to start implementation can break the current deadlock. Looking at the energy market pricing over the weekend, it remains high and not optimistic. Clearly, the capital market maintains a cautiously optimistic stance on the current situation, especially with the approaching November 3 midterm election failure. If negotiations break down at this time, the consequences could be severe.$PONS 1. Platform trading activity continuously declines｜October 29–31｜Clear negative impact, significant effect According to DefiLlama data cited by MemeFees, Pons platform's daily fee revenue dropped from about $363,800 on October 29 to $220,000 on October 30, then further down to $156,900 on October 31, a cumulative decrease of approximately 57% over three days. During the same period, the number of newly issued tokens per day fell from 1,475 to 894, a decrease of about 39%. This indicates a clear cooling in platform trading enthusiasm. For PONS, which relies on trading fees to buy back tokens, this is a core negative factor. 2. PONS price rebounds｜November 1｜Short-term positive, moderate impact CoinGecko data shows PONS price at about $0.247, up approximately 8.5% in 24 hours, but still about 75% below the historical high of $0.971 in September. My judgment is: currently, only a short-term rebound can be confirmed, not a trend reversal. Especially with platform fees continuously declining, the price increase lacks synchronized fundamental support. 3. Buyback and burn mechanism remains core value support｜November 1｜Long-term positive but weakening strength According to Kraken official introduction, Pons uses part of the protocol fees to purchase and burn PONS, reducing circulating supply in the market. The advantage of this mechanism is that platform usage can be converted into token buy pressure. However, the problem is obvious: with declining fee income, buyback funds will decrease. Deflationary mechanismLatest developments: The FBI has issued an attribution conclusion, identifying the Binance theft as carried out by the North Korea-linked hacker group TraderTraitor. Monitoring shows that the hackers are gradually converting the stolen funds into ETH.
USDT and USDC have contract freeze permissions controlled by their issuers, while ETH, as Ethereum's native token, does not have a single entity capable of freezing it. The FBI can currently only publicize the addresses involved with the stolen funds and calls on DeFi, cross-chain, and exchange platforms to proactively intercept the related funds.
But can decentralized protocols effectively block this money?
Stablecoins have freezing capabilities and are often criticized for insufficient decentralization; ETH cannot be frozen, yet it has become the preferred target for hackers to transfer assets.
Is the ability to freeze assets an advantage or a drawback?
$HYPE $ZEC Bithumb一纸公告，把$CORE持有者最后一点侥幸也打没了：11月30日终止交易支持，12月30日彻底关闭提币通道。这不是行情回调，这是韩国主流交易平台对某个资产的"清场式"退出。当价格已经跌到让人不愿打开K线图的时候，流动性入口却被直接焊死，问题的性质变了。 过去几个月，围绕$CORE的讨论还能落在"大盘拖累""生态进展慢"这些可修复的框架里。但交易所主动下架，是另一套语言。它意味着平台方对资产的可交易性、合规状态或项目沟通给出了否定判断。散户失去的不仅是卖出的窗口，更是"再等等看"的时间期权。这一点，比跌幅本身更伤信心。 真正值得追问的不是"为什么跌"，而是三个更硬的问题：此前项目方对交易层面的承诺兑现了吗？团队接下来有没有可验证的动作？其他交易平台会不会跟进？这三个问题没有答案之前，任何"抄底"叙事都是空转。历史上被单一市场下架的代币，往往要经历一段流动性重新定价的真空期，而真空期的长度取决于项目方能否拿出实质沟通，而非社区里的互相安慰。 我的判断是：市场可能低估了这次事件的信号权重。多数人把它读成"短期利空"，但从市场结构看，交易通道收缩会先于价格见底——因为退出成本上升，Clearly, the Binance hacker is transferring assets
SOL and will convert everything to BitcoinConclusion: $AKE dropped 21% today and 68% over the week. But the key focus shouldn't be the price, it's these three numbers.
① Funding rates have been continuously negative: 12:00 -0.335%, 16:00 -0.224%, 20:00 -0.315%, calculated every 8 hours. Shorts are paying to hold positions, and the short squeeze is intense.
② Open interest is actually rising: 08:00 was 2.8 million contracts, 21:00 reached 3.47 million contracts, +23.7%. Price is going down while positions are increasing, indicating new shorts entering, not longs retreating.
③ On OKX, $AKE only has perpetual contracts, no spot pairs: launched on September 16, with up to 20x leverage. You can't buy spot here, and there's no spot to catch the dip.
Background I checked: Akedo official has no announcement today; verifiable is the overall AI sector downturn—CoinMarketCap recorded a $2.8 billion market cap evaporation in the AI sector on 10-29, TokenPost recorded a single-day -6.69% for the AI sector on 10-28. $AKE has 22.796 billion circulating supply, total supply 100 billion, FDV 918 million corresponding to a market cap of 209 million, with 77% still unreleased.
Narrative tokens are retreating; first look at funding rates, then open interest, and finally price. Do you think this drop has hit the bottom? $BTC hackers painstakingly stole 18,000 BTC, all marked dead on-chain, not even able to enter the mixing pool, not a single coin can be cashed out.
The exchange still has to cover the full amount, this hole can only be filled by forcibly buying back from the spot market.
The black swan event didn't trigger substantial selling pressure; instead, it inadvertently created over a billion in passive buy orders.
A bunch of people are still eagerly waiting for a second dip at the order book, continuing to short at this level, which is basically handing chips to the exchange's buyback.
#BTC
$BTC
👇#加密行业协同守护资产安全
Binance security incident continues to progress, with full-chain fund interception and deep industry impact becoming apparent.
Latest update from Binance: Approximately 95% of affected assets have been replenished. BTC, ETH, and some stablecoins have initiated phased withdrawal recovery, with other assets to be gradually reopened. The platform's emergency compensation and risk-bearing capacity have withstood initial tests, but the root cause tracing of the attack, closing of security loopholes, and independent verification of reserve proofs still require subsequent validation.
After FBI classification, law enforcement focus has shifted to on-chain interception: The $6 billion stolen funds have mainly been converted to ETH. The attackers plan to launder money through DeFi protocols and cross-chain services. Law enforcement has demanded THORNode nodes, DeFi service providers, and instant exchange platforms to block involved addresses across the entire chain. Funds are currently stuck at the two main exit points: coin swapping and cross-chain transfers. This batch of tokens poses potential selling pressure on ETH, with actual price impact depending on the final interception ratio.
Additionally, nearly $100 million in suspected stolen SOL funds have been detected, currently being cross-chain exchanged to BTC via Relay Protocol to disperse paths and reduce tracking difficulty. Caution is needed regarding subsequent liquidation pressure, but on-chain transfer traces are clear, which does not equate to completed money laundering.
More importantly, there is a change in regulations: law enforcement agencies directly require decentralized infrastructure to cooperate with interception. If this becomes routine, the neutrality of DeFi will be redefined. For users, platform compensation does not equal zero risk; asset diversification management remains the fundamental security principle. $BTC $ETH November 1, 2024 Current Status: High-Risk Alert / Trust Crisis Outbreak Core Conclusion: Narrative Collapse, Selling Pressure Looming CORE's core investment logic is the "BTCFi (Bitcoin Finance) yield entry," and b14g, as the officially certified staking entry, being hacked means the core supporting wall has broken. Coupled with the official response evading key issues, market confidence has suffered a devastating blow. The current low price is not a "value trough" but a "risk discount." Major Negative Factors Analysis (Why can't you bottom-fish easily?) 1. Huge "Ghost Chip" Selling Pressure (Most Direct Risk) Data: 69 million CORE left over from the 8.31 vulnerability + 97 million CORE stolen in this b14g hack = about 166 million CORE. Proportion: This accounts for more than 11% of the circulating supply (about 1.5 billion CORE). Hidden Danger: These coins belong to "hackers" or are "of unknown origin." Once hackers start selling off in batches (dumping), there will be no buy orders in the market to absorb it. It's like a Damocles sword hanging overhead, ready to fall at any time. 2. Official Credit Bankruptcy and Governance Chaos Failed Rhetoric: The official repeatedly uses "network normal" to cover up user asset losses. This PR tactic is called "covering one's ears while stealing a bell" in the crypto circle and only accelerates the collapse of community consensus. Team Turmoil: Core contributors have resigned with no successors, and the number of validators has dropped below the safety threshold (around 20), indicating that the project team may have already fractured internally or is in the process of#美联储官员释放加息信号，12月预期仍存分歧 The price of diesel in the US market is $6.352 per gallon, nearly a 70% increase compared to $3.76 per gallon before the US-Iran conflict at the end of February this year. According to the agreement between Trump and Putin, after nearly 300,000 tons this month, the US will purchase 500,000 tons from Russia in November, with a possible additional 4 million tons depending on the situation.#OKX, ICE, and Trade.xyz Join Forces to Promote Perpetual Contracts Entering the US Compliance Market
The ICE post deletion controversy has settled: the cooperation announcement was reissued, clearly stating regulatory approval as a prerequisite. The partnership remains substantively unchanged, only adding compliance conditions. Negative sentiment around HYPE has eased somewhat, but the risk of implementation has not been fully eliminated.
Responsibilities among the three parties are clear: ICE is responsible for building a regulated independent trading and clearing system; Trade.xyz provides the underlying technology and product design for Hyperliquid; OKX distributes to retail users through a joint venture, covering a full range of 7×24 perpetual trading products. If successfully executed, this will be a groundbreaking integration of traditional financial infrastructure and crypto derivatives.
Mainstream coins show distinct benefit differentiation:
- BTC: Strongest institutional reserve asset consensus, most certain liquidity premium once compliance channels open, most stable mid-term allocation logic
- ETH: Spot ETF has launched, compliant perpetual contracts complete the leveraged trading scenario, derivative depth and capital efficiency are expected to improve
- SOL: Highest short-term sentiment elasticity, but greater regulatory uncertainty; opening trading channels should not be equated with fundamental improvement
It must be clear: approval, launch, and real capital inflow are three completely different stages, representing a long-term incremental logic. It is unwise to blindly leverage for short-term speculation based on expectations; waiting for implementation signals is more prudent.
$HYPE $BTC $ETH Seeing "144 million USDT transferred from Bitfinex to Tether Treasury," is your first reaction that the price will rise? I thought so at first too, but then I realized the direction was reversed — this money is not flowing into the market, it's going back.
Transferring funds from an exchange to the issuer's Treasury is different from moving USDT between two exchanges. The former is more like money being taken back into the pocket. So this 144 million does not count as buying pressure for now; instead, it means one less ammunition.
Will $BTC drop? Not necessarily. The positions are still there, just that new money is coming in a bit slower. The real point to watch is whether the Treasury will mint more in the coming days. In the past two days, Bitcoin $BTC has bounced from a low of 76,348 to around 78,000, a move of about 2%, with support near 76,500 initially holding.
But note: the 80,000 level has not yet been reclaimed; this rally is still a rebound within a correction window, and the trend conditions are not established.
In short: the corrective rebound has begun, but whether it can upgrade into a trend depends on two validations — the quality of support before 80,000 and the policy path after the midterm elections.
"Buying is gradually increasing" is a fact, but first distinguish who is buying: spot allocation funds, ETF channel inflows, or a combination of contract short covering and short-term bottom fishing.
Data does not support a systemic strengthening of U.S. buying: before and after the event, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs still show net outflows, and the Coinbase premium index remains negative.
Leveraged long positions have been largely cleared during the event, short positions have accumulated crowding, and once the price stabilizes, short covering occurs. This is fuel for the rebound but is tactical support, not incremental allocation capital entering the market.
Weekend volume is naturally light; whether the rebound can sustain needs to be verified after the U.S. stock market opens on Monday and liquidity returns.
If ETF flows and stablecoin channels do not improve synchronously, buying around 78,000 is more likely short-term funds rather than institutional systemic inflows.
$ZEC $ETH #BTC持续震荡，后续走势受多重因素影响 #CoinbaseQ3净利润转正，交易收入同比降43%
There is a particularly noteworthy aspect in Coinbase's Q3 earnings report: net profit growth does not mean that the core trading business is also growing.
According to data officially released by Coinbase on October 29:
Q3 net profit was approximately $719 million;
Adjusted net profit was about $77.8 million;
Subscription and service revenue accounted for 49% of net income;
Cryptocurrency trading market share reached 10.7%.
However, it is important to note that the net profit includes about $715 million in crypto asset investment gains. After excluding related adjustments, the profitability is not as impressive as the headline figures suggest.
I believe the most important takeaway from this earnings report is not the return to net profitability, but that Coinbase is trying to change its revenue structure.
In the past, crypto exchange revenues were easily affected by market conditions:
When the market is active, user trading increases and fee income may rise; when the market is quiet, trading volume drops and revenue tends to be under pressure.
Coinbase is expanding its subscription services, stablecoins, derivatives, and prediction markets, aiming to reduce reliance on spot trading cycles.
This is also the direction I think is worth watching long-term:
Can a crypto exchange gradually shift from relying solely on trading volume to a diversified revenue model?
Which growth area do you think has the most potential for Coinbase in the future: derivatives, stablecoins, or subscription services? $CT 124.82% is unrealized profit, but breaking it down into four numbers reveals the foundation of this position.
First: 6.24%. The actual increase. From 0.1394 to 0.1481, a move of 0.0087, magnified 20 times to 124.82%.
Second: 5.87%. The fallback. Converting 0.0087 back from the current price equals 5.87%. It doesn't match the 6.24% because the denominator differs—gain is calculated from the entry price, breakeven from the current price.
Third: 0.07 versus 1.28. At 0.148, it's 0.07%, at 0.15, it's 1.28%. The gate beneath is so close it almost overlaps, while the target above is eighteen times farther—this is good, indicating defense is easier than offense.
Fourth: 20. This is the sensitivity—under 20x leverage, every 1% move in CT causes my unrealized profit to jump 20%. If it fluctuates 1% around 0.1481, my profit swings between 105% and 145%. Every twitch seen on the chart is noise, none is a signal.
With these four numbers laid out, the plan is set: realize most profits, push the rest to breakeven. Reduce position if it falls below 0.14, target 0.16 if it rises above 0.15, and do nothing in between. $BTC $ETH
#OKX、ICE与Trade.xyz联手，推动永续合约进入美国合规市场