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SOL fell below 94, and my altcoin positions gave out before BTC did.
Reviewing this morning's ETF data, the clearer it gets.
BTC is struggling around 76,000, with a single-day ETF outflow of 643 million; ETH is barely holding at 2,250, with ETF outflows for five consecutive days, 156 million in a single day; SOL is the most direct, at 93.29, losing 95 support, with ETF outflows for five consecutive days totaling 71.5 million, and a recent single-day outflow of 10.74 million.
I don't hold much BTC, altcoins make up the majority of my positions. This data translates to one sentence: money is shrinking into BTC, ETH is barely holding, and liquidity is being drained from SOL and altcoins. If a rebound really comes, the leaders will recover first, not my positions. Maybe feeling uneasy
This deeply trapped bottomless position
All for profit
Continuous decline
The market is so tough
No one knows where the rise point is
Nobody can predict
what wi11 happen
The only thing to do is to desperately add positions
Swear to turn the floating loss into floating profit
Hold tight and don't let go
Keep adding positions
Shout out, this time it's definitely a win
Shout out wow! Hang in there
Until the profit is so much your hands go weak
From now on
What do you see?
Ignite my profits
A full year of gains after the midterm elections in history. I believe the direction must be up.
Historically, in the 12 months after the midterm elections, BTC rose three times, about +25%, +45%, +92% respectively. But in the weeks after each vote, it first fell for a while. This time BTC is about 76,700, still 3,000 short of 80,000, short-term grinding is highly probable
$ETH about 2,250, still falling in 24 hours. ETH needs extra verification of capital flow recovery, it can't take off right after the election ends. I don't hold ETH, but watching the 2,200 level, breaking it is an opportunity, not a disaster
$SNDK pre-market up over 2% to 1,102, storage chip stocks are rebounding. The AI capital expenditure narrative is not dead, SanDisk is the most direct ticket on this line, if fiscal expectations warm after the election, it will react before the crypto circle
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ @你的爱播Misa As of November 3, 2026, I believe Bitcoin still carries a short-term risk of further decline, and it cannot yet be confirmed that the bottom has been reached. In the coming days, I lean towards a cautious bearish view but do not rule out a strong rebound.
I analyze from three aspects: technicals, capital flow, and possible upcoming trends.
Market data as of November 3:
* BTC price: approximately $76,400.
* Past 24 hours: down about 2.2%.
* Past 7 days: down about 3.6%.
* From the 2025 all-time high of $126,080, it has retraced about 39%.
The market is clearly weak at the moment.
Why do I think it might continue to fall?
I believe there are four important reasons.
1. Continuous outflow of ETF funds
U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs:
* Net outflow of about $643 million on October 30.
* Net outflow of about $399 million on November 2.
This indicates that institutional funds have not formed a sustained buying force currently.
This is a signal I am quite concerned about.
2. Market confidence is hit
The recent Binance security incident has triggered market concerns, raising investors' risk aversion.
3. Leverage funds still pose risks
There have been long liquidations in the market, indicating some investors are still using leverage to buy the dip.
If prices fall again, it may trigger a new round of cascading liquidations.
4. Technical trend has not truly strengthened yet
Bitcoin is still under short-term selling pressure and has not yet formed a clear reversal structure.【Tether Holds 150,000 $BTC, Corporate Accumulation Begins to Carry Weight】
Tether's CEO stated that the company's Bitcoin holdings have reached about 150,000 BTC, valued at approximately $11.5 billion at current prices, accounting for about 0.75% of Bitcoin's circulating supply. A single company holding this much BTC is continuously converting circulating market chips into long-term reserves.
Tether has the capacity to keep buying, backed by solid profits. The company’s net operating profit reached $1.5 billion in Q3, totaling $4.5 billion in the first three quarters, and as early as 2023, it decided to allocate up to 15% of realized net operating profits to purchase BTC. This means its buying power is sustainable, not solely dependent on short-term market trends, adding a heavyweight player to the corporate holding sector.
However, BTC is still hovering around $77,000, and on November 2, the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of about $399 million, indicating institutional funds have not yet formed a short-term consensus. Tether’s long-term allocation and the ETF’s short-term capital flows are clearly moving in different directions at present.
The long-term accumulation of 150,000 BTC means further reduction in circulating supply; if other companies follow suit, the supply-side impact will gradually accumulate. Short-term, market capital needs to return, but in the long run, Tether is using its profits to provide sustained buying support for Bitcoin. Bitcoin's timing window is becoming very subtle.
Looking back at the timing of previous cycle bottoms:
2014: 71 days after the midterm elections
2018: 39 days after the midterm elections
2022: 13 days after the midterm elections
The next midterm election is today.#US October Nonfarm Payrolls Released: Is There Still a Chance for a Rate Cut? Regarding shorting the Nasdaq, I'm not bearish on tech; I just feel that this market tells its stories too fast, and the ledger can't keep up with the delivery speed.
This week is nonfarm payroll week. Once the data is out, rate cuts will likely be postponed further, possibly until next year when the calendar is worn out and we still haven't seen one. So recently, I've been focused on one thing: "physically cooling down" the Nasdaq.
The three-layer joke logic is as follows:
1) The AI story burns cash faster than it makes money
Hundreds of billions in capital expenditure poured in, like renting an entire floor of a data center in Las Vegas.
Looking back at the revenue side: still the same advertising fees, plus some cloud subscriptions.
Spend 100, earn 4, but the market prices it as "earning 100 next year, going public on another planet the year after."
This isn't investing; it's handing out bonuses for PowerPoint presentations.
2) Interest rates don't cooperate; the denominator is colder than before
US Treasury yields hang high overhead, rate cuts delayed again and again.
Growth stocks rely on "bringing tomorrow's cash flow to the present to pamper,"
But when the discount denominator tightens, valuations kneel first—like buying a phone on installments, suddenly the interest doubles, and you rush to sell the phone on a secondhand market overnight.Profit halved, yet the stock price is the only one rising among the seven giants.🤨🤨
10/20→11/2 close:
$TSLA A +8.1%
$NVDA -6.7%
$AMZN -6.5%
$META -12.6%
$GOOGL -18.0%
Tesla Q3 operating profit down 56% year-on-year, P/E ratio over 400 times.
What supports the price is the story: Robotaxi rolled into Fort Worth on Monday, Sweden registrations up 248% in October.
AI capital expenditure was dumped, but the autonomous driving narrative was bought? 22 million USD,
transferred out from his own wallet within a few days.
Then, he posted the tweet.
He is Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX.
On October 15th, he shouted: buy Bitcoin, buy Ethereum.
A few days later, he sold over 22 million USD worth of coins.
Today, he continues tweeting bearish:
Bitcoin will weaken further.
How long will it stay weak?
Until the Federal Reserve or banks start printing money again.
Let's get the order clear:
Sell first, then talk bearish.
Words can be said casually,
but wallets don't lie.
Why does he dare say this?
This year, the USD supply increased by 4.5%.
But the leader hasn't started.
The Fed hasn't printed money, and banks haven't lent out.
The liquidity is in the pool but hasn't flowed into crypto.
The market is playing out like this:
Global money supply hit a record high.
Bitcoin, however, fell back to two months ago.
More money, but coins don't rise.
It's not money that's lacking.
What's missing is the printing press restarting.
So don't try to guess the bottom now.
Just focus on one signal:
The Fed's balance sheet expanding again.
Here's the key point:
The day the printing press opens the floodgates.
Before that, it's all grinding.
Grinding until you can't hold on,
grinding until you can't resist chasing highs.
Wait for the signal to light up, then talk about bottom fishing. 苹果这份成绩单是分裂的：营收1,144.77亿美元、同比增12%，每股收益2.10美元、增14%，iPhone增17%、Mac增24%、服务收入316亿美元创历史新高——全超了市场预期。转头给的下一季指引就软了：营收增7%到10%、服务增8%到9%、毛利率45%到46%。服务增速比这一季的10%低，毛利率比本季的47.9%低，盘前直接砸下去4%以上。 问题不在需求端，在成本端。管理层把话说得很直：内存价格前所未见，采购承诺比6月季度多出约330亿美元，全财年研发支出457.65亿美元、同比增32.5%。Siri的AI每天被调用25亿次，云端推理的账单已经大到要琢磨塞进订阅里收钱。这不是手机卖不动，是"AI税"从成本表底下捅上来了。 政治高手的看法：这份财报卡在中期选举前两天落地，这几天科技股集体挨刀，标普跌0.5%、纳指跌1.1%。业绩超预期的公司被卖掉，说明卖的人不是在看利润表，是在腾仓位。这种时候谁在卖、为什么卖，比财报数字重要得多。 金融高手的角度，这条链条要看清楚：AI资本开支上来，内存和算力就涨价，科技公司的成本吃掉利润率，而估值分母那头——实际利率——一分没降。分子先被压，Gold $XAU has some data today that's quite worth studying🤨
The World Gold Council just released its Q3 report, cutting this year's gold investment demand growth forecast from 400 tons directly down to 200 tons
But on the other hand, global central banks net bought 321 tons of gold in Q3, a 42% year-on-year increase, and gold ETFs also recorded a net inflow of 211 tons😯
Here we see a big contrast:
Ordinary investors' enthusiasm for buying gold bars and coins has clearly cooled, yet central banks and ETF funds are still continuously allocating to gold
Especially central bank gold purchases, which have reached 675 tons in the first three quarters of this year, even surpassing the same period last year
I think this report reflects a divergence in gold demand structure:
High interest rates and a strong dollar do suppress some investment demand, but reserve diversification, fiscal risks, and macro uncertainty still support another segment of buying
Of course, heavy central bank buying doesn't necessarily mean short-term gold prices will rise
What’s really worth watching next is whether ETF funds can continue to flow in, and whether central bank purchases can offset the slowdown in private investment demand
#美股与金银同步大跌，避险资金流向分化 @OKX星球 @可乐Cola_OKX #With the US midterm elections approaching, which results are worth watching?
Analysis of the closing markets in South Korea, Hong Kong, and A-shares: The same AI, South Korean stocks are cutting losses, while Hong Kong and A-shares are shifting pockets
The semiconductor sector fell more than 3.3% overnight, with Intel, Micron, and Marvell continuing to take hits; this sentiment has yet to subside in today's Asian session.
South Korean stocks took the direct hit.
KOSPI closed at 5648.79, down 3.59%; KOSDAQ was even worse, down 4.08%. Foreign investors net sold 1.52 trillion KRW, institutions dumped another 511.8 billion KRW, while individuals bought 1.66 trillion KRW, a typical "foreign capital withdrawal, retail investors holding on hard" scenario. Samsung Electronics dropped 4.15%, SK Hynix fell 5.03%, with semiconductor heavyweights hit hard by the US AI hardware sell-off.
Hong Kong stocks took a different path.
The Hang Seng Index closed at 23,525, up 0.57%, with southbound funds net buying HKD 23.4 billion, ending 14 consecutive trading days of net outflows. But the structure was very fragmented: AI hardware and optical communications were heavily sold, with Zhongji Xuchuang down over 10%, Lenovo down over 6%; the beneficiaries were big consumer and insurance stocks, with Haidilao up over 6%, Mengniu and China Resources Beer up over 4%, and China Pacific Insurance up over 4%.
A-shares followed the same script.
The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.82% to close at 3608, with turnover shrinking to 1.72 trillion CNY. The index looked weak, but there was rotation underneath. Electronics saw a net outflow of 8.7 billion CNY, with semiconductors and memory chips being the hardest hit; CATL saw a net inflow of over 1.2 billion CNY, rising 3.8%; Kweichow Moutai surged nearly 3%, with a single-day net inflow of 2.2 billion CNY, approaching 1,500.BREAKING Bitcoin has a curious relationship with U.S. midterm elections. Historically, these political events have sometimes been followed by sharp market pullbacks and traders are watching closely as voting begins.
But history is a reference, not a guarantee. This time, macro conditions, liquidity ETF flows and investor positioning could change the outcome.
I'm watching how $BTC reacts around key support levels. Will sellers take control again or will Bitcoin break the historical pattern? The parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, ICE, has signed an agreement with Trade[XYZ] to bring the Hyperliquid perpetual futures into the U.S. regulatory framework, covering crypto, stocks, commodities, and forex. On the announcement day, October 29, HYPE jumped about 13%; as of now, the approval and launch dates are still unknown, and the price has retraced from its peak.
An agreement does not mean U.S. retail can already use it. Opponents will watch closely: no CFTC approval, no clearing member list, so the paper cooperation does not support a real channel; the price surge and retracement seem more like the market digesting expectations rather than realizing new inflows.
Consider the approval progress as a gate. If no substantial filing action is seen within three months, or if the spot price continuously falls below 80 and fails to recover, treat this as a narrative boost rather than an open channel. Snapshot around 18:07 Beijing time, Binance spot about $84.4, 24h about -1.7%.
$HYPE
#Hyperliquid #PerpetualContracts #CryptocurrencyThe U.S. midterm election voting is happening today, and there's an account in the prediction market that has already staked about $7.9 million 😂
There are roughly 100 positions in total, with the majority all bet on this election. The most aggressive bet is that the Democrats will take both the House and Senate, bought at an average of $0.30 per share, now up to $0.755. The principal is about $1.14 million, with unrealized gains of around $1.73 million.
The remaining bets are much more conservative. Three positions were bought near $0.94, approximately $1.52 million, $1.42 million, and $1.29 million respectively, betting that the Republicans won't take the House or won't sweep both chambers, which are high-probability outcomes. Each of these has only earned about $10,000 so far, roughly a 6% return on over a million dollars.
There are also losses. The bet that Republicans take the Senate and Democrats take the House, with about $700,000 invested, is now worth only around $560,000.
The entire account is currently valued at about $9.1 million, with unrealized gains of approximately $1.13 million.
On the other side, it's even more exciting. A new account registered in August made its first trade today, dumping about $176,000 within 4 minutes to bet on Republicans sweeping both chambers, bought at $0.061. The market gives this outcome less than a 5% chance, so if it hits, it would roughly multiply 16 times.
On one hand, someone is risking millions to earn small returns; on the other, someone is betting $176,000 for a 16x payoff. When the results come out tomorrow Beijing time, someone definitely won't be able to sleep.
For beginners, it's recommended to watch more and trade less; when buying coins, only buy $BTC #PalantirQ3 revenue grows 96%, stock price falls instead of rising
Palantir delivered its strongest revenue performance since going public in the third quarter of 2026, but the market voted with its feet.
Quarterly revenue was $2.313 billion, up 96% year-over-year and 20% quarter-over-quarter, surpassing the $2 billion mark for the first time. Adjusted operating income was $1.427 billion, with a margin of 62%; GAAP net income was $1.128 billion, a net margin of 49%, nearly eight times the $144 million from the same period last year. More notably, there was a structural shift: U.S. commercial revenue reached $984 million, up 148% year-over-year, surpassing U.S. government business revenue of $953 million for the first time in a single quarter. The commercial business has transformed from a past "supplement" to the "main engine" of the U.S. market. The full-year revenue guidance was raised accordingly to between $8.53 billion and $8.534 billion, an increase of about 91% year-over-year.
However, after-hours trading saw the stock price drop about 3.8% to $171.52; it had already closed down 3.08% during regular trading hours. An almost flawless earnings report was met with selling.
The reason lies not in the numbers themselves, but in how those numbers were priced. 【Capital Flow Daily Report】Past 24 Hours
Money is coming in, but no coins are going out: U net inflow to exchanges is 580 million, ammo for buying coins is accumulating
BTC and ETH zero recharge consolidation—no one is moving mainstream coins to sell
Large orders: 182 transactions totaling 152 million, selling 103 vs buying 79, pressure remains
Perpetual openings 282 vs closings 239, leverage is still increasing
Overall looks like "pressing while collecting," not a one-sided decline
Focus on two things: Has U started buying yet (look at active large buy orders); Have coins started entering exchanges yet.
Our platform: 81 large orders, 69.26 million, accounting for 45% of the top four
Abnormal: HOT fee rate -2.00%; USDT issuance increased by 4.07 billion
Noteworthy: A major exchange's ETH perpetual active buy 3.6 million; leading exchange BTC sell-off 8.19 million; perpetual addresses closing short BTC 38.38 million
Data is verifiable, does not constitute trading advice.Funding markets are telling a quieter story than price charts. $BTC is still bleeding leverage, yet the perpetual funding rate refuses to turn negative, with buyers continuing to pay for the privilege of holding longs. That stubborn premium matters more than any single candle: it signals that conviction, or at least stubbornness, has not been flushed out. A single $643 million daily outflow from spot ETFs sits alongside expanding derivatives positioning, a combination that looks less like capituInterest rates are still pressing down, money has become precious, and at this time, looking at whether a coin dares to rise is actually about whether it has real income in its pocket.
$TRX is the one that dares to rise, with stablecoin settlement fees rolling in steadily. Something that has fallen for a year is actually turning green during the event week. Assets that collect cash flow have a valuation floor during tightening periods; this logic holds true in any market. Hold the base position, don’t focus on short-term.
$ENA has fallen the hardest, over six points. Its essence is to productize interest rates, and in a high-interest-rate era, its model suffers the most; there is a reason for the drop. I won’t chase it; this kind of headwind situation waits for a turning point.
$WLD lives on narrative; the story of burning money to buy growth only works in easing periods. Now no one is willing to pay for a story five years from now. I’m watching at the low range, not participating.
Cash flow and narrative, when interest rates change, valuations swap places.Don't just focus on the price ECG line—USDC circulation growth is merely an increase in preload; what truly determines survival is whether the reserve income coronary artery can still deliver oxygen to the myocardium. Circle will release its Q3 results before the market opens on November 4, like receiving a hemodynamic report before surgery: USDC circulation and stablecoin payment expansion represent volume and collateral circulation; reserve income is perfusion pressure; distribution costs are afterload; profit is stroke volume. Only looking at circulation expansion and calling it recovery is like only checking blood pressure without looking at lactate. If distribution costs stick with scale and reserve yield is eroded by falling interest rates, marginal profit will show low perfusion: numbers grow, but myocardium is hypoxic.
Payment expansion is like building collateral circulation, which is good, but you must check if microcirculation is leaking—compliance, clearing, on-chain congestion, and counterparty risk are capillary permeability. Tokenized stocks like $xTSLA linked to stablecoins are more like crosstalk between adjacent ECG leads: you can't diagnose primary ischemia just by ST segment elevation; conduction interference must be ruled out first. The price crash before earnings is just a symptom, not the root cause; the real issue lies in reserve asset duration, rigid distribution rebates, and the true stickiness of payment scenarios. Price can pause briefly due to sentiment, but reserve income quality won't restore sinus rhythm just because of a bullish candle.
What worries surgeons most isn't bleeding but seemingly stable high output with low resistance: beautiful circulation volume but collapsed perfusion pressure. If USDC growth can't cover distribution costs and risk buffers, it's volume overload without increased ejection fraction. Watch three tubes: whether coronary blood flow of reserve income is eroded by short-duration assets; whether vascular resistance of distribution costs only rises; whether the capillary bed of payment expansion is truly repeatable. If these three don't align, growth is pseudo-filling; the prettier the report, the worse the postoperative leakage.
I care more about urine output the first night after surgery than the beautiful cardiac output on the table. If Circle's reserve income heavily depends on interest rates, it's like the heart relying on high doses of positive inotropes: pump pressure looks good, but myocardial oxygen consumption rises; withdrawal day is the real test. Distribution costs are like reperfusion injury after aortic clamping; the larger the scale, the easier it is for rebates, channels, and compliance frictions to form microcirculatory thrombosis. If stablecoin payment expansion just shuffles the same liquidity on the books without new real settlement demand, it's an arteriovenous fistula—high flow but poor tissue perfusion.
The linkage between tokenized stocks and stablecoins is like two pumps in extracorporeal circulation: flow can be borrowed mutually, but oxygenation cannot be faked. If $xTSLA volatility only triggers monitor alarms without changing USDC clearing needs, it's just lead interference, not a cardiac structural change. What really needs open-chest exploration is how much net reserve income can be squeezed per unit circulation and whether payment expansion forms a repeatable capillary bed. Until the suture knots are tied, every premature ventricular contraction on the monitor is not noise but myocardium compensating for the balance sheet. #circleq3usdcgrowth Is it time to bottom-fish $UNI?
Originally, I thought the Bn hack incident would trigger a pullback and test the October 29 low of $6.25.
In the past two days, Uniswap's trading volume and Holders Revenue have dropped significantly compared to October 29 and 30, basically returning to the levels before the BN incident.
As event-driven trading activity cools down, the protocol revenue-driven demand for UNI burn has also weakened, and UNI has pulled back again as expected.
However, part of the protocol fees generated during the event were converted into UNI burns through Uniswap's fee mechanism, permanently reducing the token supply. This burn actually happened and has somewhat improved the supply-demand structure of UNI.
Therefore, although event-driven buying is unsustainable, the burn mechanism's improvement to market supply still exists.
I believe there is likely support around $6.25, and even if it breaks below $6.25, the important support area near $5.8 is still worth watching.
Based on this judgment, I have already started placing staggered buy orders in the $6.3–$6.9 range to build a spot position.
Of course, considering that $BTC has not yet confirmed the completion of its mid-term adjustment, UNI may still be dragged down by BTC's decline.
Therefore, I will not rush to fully load my position; currently, I have only set orders for 50% of my target position and will consider further accumulation after Bitcoin confirms the completion of its adjustment. #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？
The midterm elections kick off tonight, and the market is not focused on who wins, but on how divided it will be. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives are up for election; Democrats lead polls by about 8–10 points, with over a 90% chance to retake the House. The real suspense lies in the Senate—Republicans hold a 53:47 advantage, Democrats need a net gain of 4 seats. The seven key battlegrounds—Michigan, Ohio, Kansas, Maine, Alaska, Texas—are all within the margin of error; any flip would rewrite the landscape.
The underlying issues are clear: inflation and energy bills are the top variables. September CPI year-over-year is 3.7%, gasoline prices up over 34% year-over-year. Nearly 80% of voters blame living costs on tariffs and the Iran conflict. Trump's approval rating has slipped to the 31%–37% range; the midterm penalty effect is playing out.
Three possible outcomes correspond to different pricing logics:
Democrats sweep both chambers—fiscal expansion contracts, long-term US Treasury yields decline; AI computing power and big tech face increased state-level regulation and antitrust scrutiny, putting short-term pressure on crypto assets.
Divided Congress—legislative gridlock and uncertainty clear out; historically, US stocks rise an average of 14% in the six months after midterms, making this the market’s most comfortable scenario.
Republicans hold both chambers—tax cuts and deregulation continue, deficit expectations push long-term rates higher; tech and crypto lean bullish, but the dollar’s credit is discounted.
A hidden variable is vote counting delays. Mail-in ballots concentrate in key states, some seats may take 1–2 days to finalize. The real focus is which red states flip blue in the Senate—that will determine whether Trump’s last two years are tied hands or a continued solo fight. $BTC $SOL 92.36 funding rate is still positive, longs are still paying, I won't short this and lose money
$SOL current price 92.39, down 1.67% in 24 hours, high 94.97 low 90.87, price hovering around MA7, MA25 pressing at 92.61, RSI 58.9 neither overbought nor weak, Bollinger Bands narrow between 93.2 and 91.22. In short, it's a consolidation with no clear direction yet, don't rush to get emotional.
You say the funding rate 0.0031% is positive, longs are still paying so you want to short? Brother, a positive funding rate just means longs are crowded, it doesn't mean the price will crash. The real pain is — this rate is as thin as paper, meaning longs don't have much confidence, no one is heavily positioned, shorting now will likely get chopped back and forth. Look at BTC, funding rate 0.01% is thicker, current price 77079 below MA25 77150, RSI 55.9, even BTC is weak, how tough can SOL be?
My view is straightforward: I won't short this. If you want to short, wait for SOL to rebound to the Bollinger upper band at 93.2 and for the funding rate to clearly thicken. Shorting at 92.4 now has a poor risk-reward ratio. If $SOL really falls, wait for it to break below the lower band at 91.22 before chasing; if it doesn't break, just watch the 91.2 to 93.2 range. Don't open positions emotionally over a small funding rate, you risk your own capital.Can't stop laughing, I found another piece of evidence that AI has no bubble.
The perspective from the US stock market guru is super interesting: Walmart and many consumer sector stocks have price-to-earnings ratios clearly higher than AI stocks. So where exactly is the bubble?Brother Feng put the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 on a logarithmic scale, drawing a single line, which clearly shows the difference!A logarithmic scale assumes growth is exponential;after taking the log,
removing the exponentialOn November 4th, during the quiet period before the U.S. stock market opens, Circle will lay out the score sheet on the table. The whole world is focused on one number—the USDC circulation volume. This is the amateur chess player's flaw: counting pawns but ignoring the board.
What does a grandmaster look at? The piece structure. Reserve income is the heavy piece in this game, but it is led around by interest rates. Once the interest rate is cashed out by the opponent, the midgame immediately collapses from an open position into a closed endgame, and no matter how beautiful the pawn formation is, it won't gain any advantage. So, the growth in circulation volume is essentially a battle for the center: first occupying the squares, at the cost of distribution expenses—that means sharing half the board with allies. You agree with your ally "I play white, you play black," sharing the joy of winning equally, but the loss is fully recorded under your own name.
The real watershed is whether the net piece difference has expanded. If every newly issued coin requires paying nearly proportional channel commissions, that's not expansion; it's piling a hanging piece on your own king's wing—looking like you have many pieces, but a single strike can scatter them all.
Now look at another board. Moving U.S. stock assets on-chain is like opening a different variant board next to the original one, with pieces able to jump across boards. Liquidity is the least loyal thing: it flows to whichever board has shorter move times and lower tolls. USDC plays the role of the passage pawn that everyone must pass through between these two boards—collecting a toll with every step forward, but it can never promote. This is the endgame essence of the stablecoin business: not to be the king, only the passage.
The true initiative is not in the issuance volume but in retention. When circulation growth starts to rely on subsidy-based distribution, the game shifts from offense to a draw; only when reserve income covers distribution costs with surplus can the passage pawn truly be pushed to the seventh rank. On the November 4th score sheet, I only watch two things: whether the net yield per unit circulation is widening, and whether the distribution cost ratio to reserve income is being controlled. The rest of the excitement is just applause from the audience.
The most dangerous moment for a player is never being in check, but thinking they are winning. #circleq3usdcgrowth#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ As the U.S. midterm elections approach, macro uncertainty continues to rise, increasing risk premiums and becoming one of the core variables in current asset pricing. Personally, I feel the Republican Party is highly likely to maintain its majority in Congress. If the Republicans maintain control of Congress, regulatory constraints will marginally ease. Resistance to digital asset framework bills like CLARITY will decrease, potentially clarifying the jurisdictional boundaries between the SEC and CFTC, reducing uncertainty caused by enforcement-style regulation. The market will play out valuation recovery driven by improved regulatory certainty, and risk assets will experience a round of expectation-driven beta rallies, with sentiment in the crypto sector and related concept stocks being notably boosted. However, this should be viewed objectively; this rally is more about expectation trading, with no substantial improvement in fundamentals, making it difficult to directly trigger a trend-level major rise, so excessive bullishness is not advisable. It is important to note that party division should not be the sole criterion for judgment, as there are still divisions within party members, and the bill negotiation and bargaining cycle is relatively long. The pace of subsequent bill implementation is the core factor affecting long-term valuation, so do not form a one-sided bullish expectation based solely on election results. During the election window, funds tend to reduce exposure to hedge tail risks, and the market is prone to a "buy the rumor, sell the fact" trading structure. Even if the results are somewhat positive, there is a possibility of a pullback after the good news is realized. It is strictly prohibited to heavily bet on a single expectation. From an operational perspective, it is recommended to control risk exposure, prioritize waiting for event outcomes, trade with the trend after confirming fund behavior, and strictly set stop losses to hedge against sudden volatility.These days there's been widespread talk: Binance was hacked, and the hacker withdrew ETH, so the exchange's ETH decreased. Sounds plausible, but the data tells an awkward story.
On October 29, the hot wallet did transfer out about 200,600 ETH, which is alarming. But on the same day, the exchange's address actually held more ETH, increasing by about 39,000. They transferred out 200,000, yet the balance went up—probably just moving to another internal wallet.
The real decrease happened from November 1 to 2, when about 313,000 ETH left over two days. The whole week saw a decrease of 297,000 ETH, down 5.4%. Sounds serious, but the real culprit seems to be different.After the Binance hack, a very straightforward explanation circulated: the hacker withdrew ETH, so the exchange's ETH decreased. The data only supports the first half of this.
Let's look at the total amount. From October 28 to November 2, the ETH held by major exchange platform addresses decreased by about 297,000, a drop of about 5.4%. The decrease happened in two phases, and only the first phase coincides with the hacker's withdrawal time.
The contradiction lies on the most dramatic day. On October 29, TRM Labs recorded about 200,600 ETH transferred out from Binance's hot wallet. If it was truly an exit, the exchange's inventory should have collapsed accordingly. But on that day, the ETH held by major exchange platform addresses actually increased by about 39,000. Transferring out 200,000 while inventory rises indicates this was most likely an internal address swap within the system.
The real decrease happened later. From November 1 to 2, about 313,000 ETH decreased, more than the previous five days combined, and this period was already several days after the hacker incident.
So the first phase was a stress-driven transfer triggered by the event, while the second phase was the actual inventory loss. The former affects custody structure, the latter affects available supply. Mixing these two leads to the conclusion that the hacker dumped the market, but the data tells a different story.
What is worth pondering is: since these 313,000 ETH are unrelated to the hacker, who moved them in early November? Capital flow speaks first; today's market is a bit "inconsistent" (・∀・)
$BTC | Contract net outflow of $194 million, spot net outflow of $76.36 million, both sides are pulling back, short-term looks more like existing funds moving back and forth, not to mistake the rebound for a reversal (｡•́︿•̀｡)
$ETH | Contract net outflow of $95.69 million, spot net outflow of $114 million, spot selling pressure heavier than contracts, indicating not just deleveraging but overall position reduction, weakest among the three (＞﹏＜)
$SOL | Contract net outflow of $79.49 million, but spot net inflow of $8.84 million, leverage withdrawing while spot buying in, structure relatively more stable; but the volume is small, only a local probe (•̀ᴗ•́)و
Overall, deleveraging continues. SOL is more resistant to decline, BTC and others see funds returning, ETH is weaker. Now chasing gains is not cost-effective; first watch if spot outflows narrow (๑•̀ㅂ•́)و✧
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ Looking back at the performance after the last three midterm elections: 📍2014: Bottomed about 71 days later, price around $170. 📍2018: Bottomed about 39 days later, price around $3,200. 📍2022: Bottomed about 13 days later, price around $15,500. From these lows, the subsequent gains were: 🚀 $170 → $20,000, over 100 times 🚀 $3,200 → $64,000, about 20 times 🚀 $15,500 → $126,000, about 8 times An interesting detail: the time to bottom shortened each time, being 71 days, 39 days, and 13 days re🚨 New changes in BTC historical cycles! Can the upcoming U.S. midterm elections still replicate the script of the previous three rounds?
Many are still focused on the U.S. midterm elections on November 3, but what’s truly worth studying is Bitcoin’s performance after the last three midterm elections.
Looking back at history, there is a very interesting phenomenon:
📉 2014: About 71 days after the election, BTC hit a local bottom at around $178.
📉 2018: In just 39 days, the market dropped to around $3,237.
📉 2022: This time it was even faster, hitting the bear market low near $15,500 about 13 days later.
71 days → 39 days → 13 days.
In these three cycles, the time to bottom has been getting shorter!
But what’s really worth paying attention to is the rebound afterward.
🚀 After 2014, Bitcoin surged toward the historic highs of 2017.
🚀 After the 2018 bear market ended, BTC soared to about $69,000 in 2021.
🚀 After bottoming in 2022, a new upward cycle began, reaching new all-time highs in 2025.
However, an important change occurred in 2026!
This year, Bitcoin already hit a local low of about $57,850 on July 1, approximately 125 days before the November 3 election.
In other words, the previous pattern of bottoming after the three past elections may no longer hold this time!
"Those Stuck Are Betting Yes: On the Eve of Circle's Earnings Report, the Market No Longer Buys the Story"
Before the market opened on November 4, Circle will release its Q3 earnings report. I still hold CRCL, not mentioning the cost, anyway, I'm stuck. On Outcomes, I bet Yes, here is the logic.
The bears hold a strong card: USDC circulation is stuck around over 70 billion dollars, and in the past week, it has even decreased by about 800 million tokens; reserve yields are declining, with profit margins dropping for several consecutive quarters. Without growth in scale, the story can't be pushed forward.
The bulls hold a trump card: In September, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points for the first time in three years. Circle's almost entire revenue comes from interest on USDC reserves; a one basis point increase in rates means hundreds of billions in reserves generate pure profit from additional interest. The rate hike hurt my crypto positions but fed its interest income—one gets hit, the other eats well.
The market expects EPS around $0.37, with whispers of even higher numbers; the Arc mainnet, Binance five-year agreement, and payment network volume are all cards not accounted for in the old model.
I also acknowledge the risks: expectations keep rising, and the "beat expectations but stock price falls" scenario just played out. So I bet Yes but do not increase my position—the bet is the bet, the stuck position is the stuck position, two separate accounts.
In this round of pullback, Intel, SanDisk, and Circle all plunged together; the stronger the prior rally, the more intense the retracement. Chip manufacturing, AI storage, stablecoin financial infrastructure. #Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？
$SNDK $INTC $CRCL $INTC, $AMD, and Micron are all under pressure.
This indicates that capital is starting to reassess the valuation of the entire AI industry chain.
I won't rush to bottom-fish just because of a big drop.
My approach is simple:
First, see if the sector can stop falling, then see if the leaders can strengthen first, and only then consider adding positions.
Bottom-fishing late is not a problem; the problem is mistaking a downward consolidation for a bottom.
Brothers, have you started positioning now? ⚠️ All rates are positive, bulls are holding strong, the decline is not over
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
BTC｜76646, 24h -2%
Range 78398—76386
RSI 32.4
MA7, MA25 resistance
Bollinger lower band 76322 is the lifeline
Breakdown target 75000
Rate +0.01%, bulls are still paying to hold positions
ETH｜2250
RSI 35.3
Moving averages turning down
2235 Bollinger lower band is the last support
Bulls can still hold, rate also positive, leverage not cleared
ZEC｜1131, -10.8%
RSI 20.7, bulls lying flat
Rate still positive, some are still holding hard
Thoughts
Wait for bulls to disarm and rates to turn negative before considering entry
No bottom fishing now
Do you think it will break 76322 first, or will bulls hold and counterattack?
Market observation only, not investment advice
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ The expectation of the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is driving crude oil prices down, but this time I want to look one step further: can refined oil prices also come down together?
Recently, the retail price of diesel in the United States remains significantly higher than a year ago. Crude oil is the input for refineries, but the price consumers ultimately pay is also affected by refining, inventory, transportation, and taxes. A drop in crude oil futures does not directly guarantee that gas stations will lower prices the next day.
This is especially important for observing inflation. If crude oil pressure eases but diesel and transportation costs do not come down promptly, the improvement in business costs will be slower, and the relief felt by consumers will be diminished.
As shipping through the strait gradually recovers, the speed of improvement for different oil products and regions may not be consistent. How much supply returns, how much refineries can process, and whether refined oil can be transported to where it is needed all affect the final price.
Of course, I hope this round of negotiations can bring substantial progress. Energy costs have been suppressed for so long, and both businesses and households need a breather. But judging how much economic benefit a drop in oil prices can bring cannot be based on just one crude oil curve.
Going forward, I will observe crude oil, diesel, and gasoline together. Only if end prices continue to decline can it be said that this round of easing has truly started to pass through to daily operations and household bills.
#美伊谈判推进，霍尔木兹重开方案受关注 Since 2019, the net worth of the bottom half of American households has more than doubled, a trend that sharply contrasts with the widespread recession narratives prevalent on social media. Data shows that many Americans' economic conditions are far more optimistic than what is portrayed online, and this disconnect between reality and perception is increasingly attributed to algorithms amplifying negative content, thereby influencing market sentiment. Event Overview Recent analysis reveals that the net worth of the bottom 50% of American households has surged over 100% since 2019, thanks to strong wage growth, stimulus policies during the pandemic, and rising asset prices—including housing prices and cryptocurrencies held by some groups. However, this improvement is almost absent from mainstream discussions, as social media algorithms tend to prioritize sensational negative news, creating a feedback loop of economic pessimism. The gap between statistical reality and perceived reality has significant implications for investors and policymakers interpreting consumer confidence and spending patterns. Market Impact The divergence between actual wealth growth and public sentiment may produce the following market effects: Stocks: If the financial condition of the bottom half of Americans is healthier than assumed, then non-essential consumer stocks—retail, travel, and leisure—may be undervalued. Conversely, if pessimism suppresses spending, these sectors may underperform. Investors should watch for signs of consumer spending resilience in earnings reports, especially from discount retailers and payment processors. Bonds: Stronger household balance sheets may support interest rates remaining higher for a longer period,The Fear and Greed Index rose from 34 to 37, and BTC also increased by 0.48%. Panic has eased a bit, but is the market really safe? 1. News. The latest reading of the Crypto Fear & Greed Index is 37, up 3 points from the previous 34, but still in the panic zone. BTC is priced at $78,355.7, up 0.48% in 24 hours and down 2.58% over the past week. The market continues to digest Binance's approximately $5.8 billion net outflow and progress in tracking hacker funds; prices and sentiment have improved in sync but have not completely shaken off the impact of these events. 2. Capital Impact. The latest single-day net inflow for BTC ETFs is $34.7 million, with a 5-day net inflow of $413.8 million and a 10-day net inflow of $176.9 million. The US Dollar Index is at 101.92, up 0.04% intraday, and gold is up 0.42%. Funds are still flowing in, but the latest single-day strength has diminished; the sentiment rebound seems more like a passive recovery after price stabilization rather than an active push by new funds. 3. BTC Implications. The Fear and Greed Index rising from an extremely low level usually only indicates that the most crowded panic trades are starting to recede and cannot be directly taken as a trend reversal. A reading of 37 is still below the neutral line, and as long as the price falls below 76,265 again, sentiment can easily reverse. Conversely, if the index continues to rise and ETFs maintain net inflows, the rebound has a chance to evolve from a recovery rally into a trend rally. 4. Indicators to Watch. I will focus on four indicators next: first, whether the Fear and Greed Index can rise continuously and break through 40; second, whether the single-day ETF inflow can expand again;#Apple's new CEO receives the first performance report for iPhone 18: revenue of $114.477 billion, EPS 2.10 beats expectations, yet the stock price fell 1.83% to close at 338.32 — even a beat in the earnings report couldn't save the stock price, this is the cost of a 40x PE ratio. The market reaction is very honest: strong iPhone sales, holiday season guidance exceeds expectations, but Greater China and iPad fall short of expectations, tariff refunds also propped up EPS. Three highlights: first, can iPhone 18 sales support the 40x valuation, especially after a 24% rise this year; second, is the weakness in Greater China a trend signal; third, the "non-money-burning" AI strategy was neither disproved nor credited in Ternus's first earnings report. The bulls and bears are directly divided: bulls say revenue +12%, annual profit 132.175 billion up 18% year-on-year, fundamentals are solid; bears say even with a beat, the stock fell, indicating expectations were too high. My view: this post-earnings sell-off looks more like profit-taking, not a breakdown in logic, but 338 is not far from the monthly low of 332.89, so don't rush to buy. Volatility won't be small. Do you think the Greater China gap can be filled next quarter? This is not investment advice, DYOR #Apple Q4 revenue beats expectations, next quarter gross margin guidance under pressure $AAPL The hurdle of one cent, why DOGE always stumbles here
0.1, 0.15, 0.2 — DOGE keeps tugging back and forth at these price points. My judgment is simple: these aren’t lines drawn by technical analysis, but walls built tick by tick from the psychological accounts of millions of retail investors.
The human brain only recognizes whole numbers when accounting. You set a take profit at 0.2, not 0.197; they watch the stop loss closely at whether 0.1 breaks or not. It’s like rounding up for discounts — no one calculates down to the decimal, everyone rounds to whole numbers. Buy orders queue just below the whole number, sell orders pile up just above it, and the order book’s thickness grows naturally this way.
So don’t get the cause and effect backwards: it’s not that analysts draw lines and then prices fight there; prices fight first and then lines get drawn. Around whole numbers, those trying to break even want to exit, bottom-fishers want to enter, and profit-takers want to cash out — three groups collide at the same price. What’s called support and resistance is a trace left by people, not a blueprint directing price.
$DOGE is especially subject to this: low unit price, one cent per step, many retail investors, so the volume in psychological accounts is naturally sufficient. I don’t see these levels as trading signals, but as an emotional thermometer — if volume supports it, the price breaks through; if it can’t push, it retreats to the next anchor and stays there. Anchors are man-made and can be dismantled by people too, so don’t nail your position to scales drawn by others. $XRP: Coinbase premium drops to an 8-month low, US buying interest is withdrawing
Today XRP is at 1.2555, up 0.27% in 24 hours, while BTC fell 1.32% in the same period. On the surface, it seems resilient, but the capital flow has been moving in the opposite direction these past few days.
On November 1, Ripple custody released 1 billion tokens, then locked back 700 million the same day, resulting in a net increase of 300 million tokens. These 300 million have not yet been seen moving into exchanges, but the circulating supply has indeed increased significantly.
US buying interest is shrinking; Coinbase premium index dropped to -0.16%, the lowest in 8 months. The spot XRP ETF had a net inflow of only $18.83 million in October, the lowest since January, and on Monday there was a net outflow of about $530,000.
On OKEx, buy orders account for 46.8%, with slightly heavier sell orders. The price is still suppressed below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. 1.2239 is the lower edge of the descending triangle; if it breaks down, the next reference level is the June 5 low at 1.0692.Tokenized stocks reaching roughly $3.8B after 10 consecutive record weeks is notable because product breadth is now pairing with market plumbing. Securitize's additions on Solana widen the menu, while NYSE and Broadridge's plans address voting and transfer functions that matter to holders.
That still does not prove durable trading demand. Capital may follow only if access, liquidity, and shareholder rights improve together.
#TokenizedStocksRecord Seeing BTC drop to 76,000, many people's first reaction is "The AI narrative collapsed, so altcoins dragged down the whole market." This attribution is too smooth, almost suspiciously so. What’s really worth watching is whether the derivatives side "loosens" after the price drops? First, let's look at the facts: gold remains steady around 3900, US stocks show mixed gains and losses, Oracle fell 8% due to concerns over AI investments, Bitcoin retreated to around 76,000, and AI-themed altcoins weakened in sync. On the other hand, Binance reportedly used nearly half of its SAFU Bitcoin reserves to cover losses, Mercado Bitcoin disclosed a $46 million security incident with about $11 million frozen, and Lisk directly shut down its L2 transition to focus on financial services. Putting these three pieces of news together, the flavor is actually quite different. My own feeling is that this wave looks more like a "tightening of risk budgets" rather than a collapse of a single narrative. The weakness in the AI sector is just the fuse; the real transmission is the fragility on the position side: when prices probe downward, high-leverage longs are forced to reduce positions, and if the funding rate quickly falls from positive, it indicates longs are actively disarming; but if open interest does not shrink significantly, it means shorts are taking over and the spring of squeeze is still there. Altcoins are falling faster than BTC precisely because their derivatives depth is thinner, so even a small liquidation can create a big pit. The bullish scenario also holds: if this dip only washes out overheated leverage, and open interest and funding rates cool down and stabilize, then around 76,000 could actually be an observation window after emotional clearing. But the risk that is not fully priced in is, S$ETH is structurally neutral to bearish, with the price running just below the Bollinger middle band near 2254, showing weak rebound strength. Key levels to watch: resistance above at 2282, where the upper Bollinger band overlaps with positions looking to exit; support below at the 20-hour low of 2236, and further down at the 96-hour low of 2207. Given the order situation, the current price of 2254 is a direct market sell without waiting for a rebound, because the resistance at 2282 is clear and the current price is a usable entry point. Stop loss is set at 2284, just above the upper Bollinger band; if the price closes back above this, it indicates the rebound has turned into a true breakout, invalidating the bearish logic, and the position should be exited immediately. The target is the previous low support zone around 2210, which is the first real support above the 96-hour low at 2207; breaking below this will open up a larger downside space. On the funding side, there has been a net active sell of about 38,000 units in the past 24 hours, with selling pressure not yet fully absorbed. Risk note: if the rebound strength exceeds expectations and directly eats through 2254, the short logic needs to wait for structural confirmation again. #BTC持续承压，资金与市场走势出现分歧 $IRYS This monster is about to come alive, whether you’re scalping or watching it act wild
IRYS intraday +56%, but I only dare to trade it short-term, the reason is written in the supply chart
Today I made an intraday trade on IRYS: entered around 0.0213, return +56%.
After the fun, let’s get serious—why I absolutely won’t hold this as a mid-term position.
First, what is it:
🔹 Irys, AI data Layer-1, focusing on "programmable data," EVM-compatible execution layer
🔹 Market cap 45.22 million, ranked 162 by market cap—mini cap among small caps
🔹 Down from ATH by -93%: was 0.32 on October 24, now 0.0226
🔹 Circulation rate 20%: out of 1 billion total supply, only 200 million released, 4x tokens still locked in treasury
🔹 Turnover rate 4.59%, 24h fluctuation range 0.019–0.023
I’ve seen this "supply structure" pattern five times already (CT, PEPE, BLUR, DOS, XPL), the rule is exactly the same:
Small circulating supply + AI narrative + deep dip rebound = intraday pulse paradise, but a nightmare for heavy overnight holding.
Where did today’s +12% come from? Not a fundamental turning point—it’s because 80% of tokens are locked in treasury, and only 45.22 million market cap circulating supply is on the market, so even a little capital can trigger double-digit volatility. It pumps fast and dumps just as fast, and the low-cost tokens that dump are neatly lined up on the unlock schedule.
So for this +56% intraday gain, my discipline is:
① Position sizing as "ready to zero out anytime"—this kind of coin has overnight risk far greater than overnight reward
② Take profits on floating gains without upgrading belief—intraday profits come from volatility, don’t fool yourself into thinking it’s value investing
③ When seeing AI narrative + low circulation, first check unlock schedule, then decide how long to hold
In one sentence to summarize this series: the coin’s true nature is 70% written in the supply chart.
Have you ever profited from coins that feel great intraday but crash overnight? Let’s talk in the comments.Bold prediction: within two years, it will be difficult for the crypto space to see a true bull market.
To end this long icy bear market, three tough hurdles must be crossed.
The first hurdle is the maturity of decentralized custody by exchanges, proven through practical tests, with market-confirmed solutions to custody theft risks.
The second hurdle is BTC price halving, with high-level bubbles fully cleared and massive trapped positions turned over and digested.
The third hurdle is the completion of cryptographic upgrades to mainstream underlying protocols, while resisting AI hacker attacks and withstanding quantum computing cracking risks.
Currently, centralized custody vulnerabilities are frequent, AI hacker attack thresholds are lowering, and quantum long-term risks are approaching.
Upgrading the underlying protocols of BTC and ETH is extremely difficult, and these three tasks are unlikely to be fully realized within two years.
There may be short-term thematic rebounds during this period, but those are not bull markets, just pulse movements within a bear market.
The old security system has shown cracks, the new underlying standards have not yet formed, and the icy bear market is destined to be long.
Stay calm and observe the big trend, rely on your own insight, and depend on your own security. When $TAO AI trading is congested, how can the demand for TAO prove that it is not just thematic rotation? Concerns about tech stocks' AI capital returns are rising, and related crypto themes may simultaneously face valuation compression. If TAO has sustained contributors, genuine task demand, and subnet quality, it can still be distinguished from pure conceptual assets. The opposing view is that liquidity withdrawal leads to high volatility; if contributor activity drops sharply with reward changes, long-term demand has yet to stabilize. Evaluating paid tasks versus non-incentivized usage, only repeated demand supports network value, not narrative hype. For further confirmation, I will separate news shocks, capital flows, and real usage for examination; only if at least two factors align across multiple periods will I adjust the mid-term assessment. If only short-term price or a single indicator changes, I will remain cautious and wait for subsequent data. #AMD Earnings Preview: HeliosAI System Commercialization Progress Down 26.1% in One Month, Market Cap Evaporates by $236 Billion, Stock Price at 466.84 Stuck at Monthly Low — Earnings Report to Be Released Tonight (After Market Close on November 3), Market Comes with Intel's “Meltdown” Shadow. Three Highlights: First, whether the Helios AI system commercialization can provide solid order signals, which is the core test for the “second pole of AI chips”; second, whether Intel's exposed PC weakness will transmit, AMD itself also fell 7.52%; third, Wall Street's highest target price of $1250 versus the current price of 466, the divergence is absurdly large. Bulls and bears are clear: Bulls say the AI growth story is still impressive, the pullback is an opportunity; bears say PC concerns + overvaluation, Intel has already put the industry's problems on the table. My view: This wave is a double hit of sentiment + industry contagion, not that AMD's own earnings are bad, but guidance is much more important than numbers, if Helios has no solid product yet, it still needs polishing. Volatility? The 26% monthly drop says it all. Do you bet on a rebound after the earnings, or wait for Helios orders to land? This is not investment advice DYOR #AMD Earnings Preview: HeliosAI System Commercialization Progress $AMD Today’s intraday movement was shocking again, the lowest was 76386, but it pulled back, now at 76994. Around 76500, this is already the third time the market has been supported.
The first time was 76519, the second 76265, and today 76386. Every time it drops, someone steps in to buy.
Some say this is a strong bottom, but I advise everyone not to rush to celebrate. The same level has been tested three times without breaking, which does show support, but on the other hand, every rescue costs real money, the buy orders are being consumed, and if you look at the rebounds, each one is weaker than the last. Holding the line doesn’t mean it can push higher.
Tonight, all eyes are on the US, voting is underway, and results will come out tomorrow morning. If the results are clear, US stocks will rebound, and the crypto market will catch a breather. This level might really hold. But if there’s a dispute and it drags on to a fourth time, I can’t guarantee it will hold.
So don’t bet on direction at the edge tonight. Whether this is the bottom or not, we’ll know by tomorrow morning.
How many more times do you think this level can hold?
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ $BTC $ETH
$ZEC A brief observation on midterm elections and cycles. $BTC $SOL
As the midterm elections approach, the market will most likely experience another wave of volatility.
The decline may not be drastic; it's more about temporary risk aversion in sentiment and capital.
Only after the event passes is it more worthwhile to look for signals of bottoming.
Looking back at the past three complete Bitcoin cycles:
Bottoms all appeared after the US midterm elections.
In 2014, the bottom was reached 71 days after the election.
In 2018, the bottom was reached 39 days after the election.
In 2022, the bottom was reached 13 days after the election.
The time is shortening, but the pattern itself has not disappeared.
If this still holds true this time, then the end of 2026 to early 2027 might be the time window for the next cycle bottom.
I will not heavily bet on any specific day based on this.
Just noting this position as a reference coordinate for future observation.
Events may disrupt the rhythm, but it is difficult to change the larger cycle structure.
Note:
What truly matters is never the news itself, but how the market re-prices after the news.A couple of days ago, we were particularly concerned about the market confidence indicators, so here is a quick update today.
Short-Term Holder Realized Price (STH-RP):
$BTC price dropped to a low of 76,325 but still firmly held above the STH-RP (75,740).
Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH-SOPR):
Affected by the major drop in the US stock market and the Binance hack incident, the value hit a low of 0.983 but still remained above the previously mentioned trend lower bound (0.922–0.957).
Overall, despite the interference from the US stock market and the hack incident, short-term holders' confidence remains strong, which explains why the market has not fallen despite negative news recently.
Next, we will watch the US midterm elections over the next couple of days. Once the market eliminates this uncertainty, the market can return to normal...
Also, sharing an interesting statistic:
Since 1950, in 19 midterm elections, the ratio of up to down in the election year was 12:7; but in the 12 months following the election, the ratio of up to down was 19:0.
In other words, historically, "buy this year, sell next year" has basically never lost.
Will this happen again this time?Nonfarm payrolls are coming this Friday, and BTC is about to face another macro test😯
At 21:30 on November 6, the US will release October's nonfarm payroll data; last month only added 29,000 jobs, and this time the market expects a rebound to 65,000, with the unemployment rate expected to remain at 4.2%
This is quite interesting
Last week the Fed just paused rate hikes, and even two officials advocated continuing to raise rates, indicating inflation pressure remains the policy focus;
If employment significantly exceeds expectations this time, market worries about a December rate hike may heat up again, which obviously is not good news for $BTC
But weak employment does not necessarily mean a rise; if the unemployment rate worsens simultaneously, recession concerns could also suppress risk assets
Personally, I am more wary of a hawkish shock caused by data exceeding expectations
After all, under the current policy environment, BTC still faces valuation pressure from high interest rate expectations
On Friday, focus on nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate, and wage growth to see which logic the market trades on
#美国10月非农前瞻：就业增长或牵动12月加息预期