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$HYPE "freeloaded" another sum of money from Circle: the second installment of $15.92 million has arrived
Let's clarify a basic logic:
Circle $CRCL issues USDC, users deposit dollars to exchange for USDC, and Circle uses that money to buy U.S. Treasury bonds to earn interest. So the reserve interest of USDC has always belonged to Circle. But HYPE actually snatched this piece of the pie.
How did they snatch it?
In August 2026, HYPE launched a framework called AQAv2. The rule is simple: if you want USDC to be the main margin and quoting asset on HYPE, you have to give me about 90% of the on-chain interest earned by this batch of USDC. Circle had to agree to keep tens of billions of dollars in share. If they refused? The money would all be converted to USDT.
Today, the second payment was delivered on schedule. $15.92 million USDC. That's 9.2% more than the first payment on October 3 ($14.58 million). At the current price, this money can directly burn about 190,000 HYPE tokens.
This makes HYPE the only major L1 that directly profits from USDC reserves. With the current stock, daily income exceeds $500,000.
All this money is used for buyback and burn, creating a crazy flywheel: the larger the USDC supply → the more protection fees paid → the more HYPE burned.
Using Circle's interest to boost its own market. This business is amazing!The USDT supply on TRON has reached about $94.2 billion, leaving Ethereum behind; the cumulative on-chain transactions have just surpassed 16 billion, with a daily average of about 11.56 million transactions. This is not a speculative bubble; the throughput is supported by stablecoin settlement flows.
A high cumulative transaction count looks good but does not mean all users are actively paying. Critics might argue that it includes resource delegation, idle transactions, and volume inflation, and that daily active users and real payment scenarios are the true metrics. In TRONSCAN's composition, USDT transfers account for just over 20%, so it’s necessary to compare the seven-day daily average settlement volume and active addresses, rather than focusing solely on total transaction count.
Observing over a week: if the on-chain USDT supply falls below 90 billion or the daily average transactions drop below 9 million for three consecutive days, then the 16 billion milestone should be regarded as a promotional figure, not as locked-in market share. Snapshot around 16:05 Beijing time, Binance spot about $0.321, 24-hour change about +1.8%.
$TRX
#TRON #USDT #cryptocurrencySpaceX has been quite conflicted recently. The fundamentals just delivered a strong performance, but the stock price took a hit. Let's start with the hard facts. Q3 revenue was $14.6 billion, more than doubling year-over-year, with a net profit of $4.4 billion — the first profitable quarter since going public. The most eye-catching is the AI segment (which has been renamed "Superintelligence"), generating $7.56 billion in revenue, soaring 830% year-over-year, surpassing Starlink for the first time as the largest revenue source. Starlink also did well, with $5.25 billion, up 69%. But the stock price didn't acknowledge this. On Friday, it plunged to $134, down nearly a quarter from last month's high of $176, and 40% below the post-IPO peak. The trigger is the same as the AI narrative mentioned earlier: the market is starting to question the returns on AI infrastructure spending. SpaceX's AI business capital expenditure reached $16.4 billion, more than the combined spending on aerospace and networking. Musk himself warned that over 200 new cloud service companies might face funding chain breaks. There's another point worth noting. The 15th Starship test flight is targeted for November 12, aiming to attempt for the first time to catch both the booster and the spacecraft simultaneously with the launch tower. If successful, it would be the first full recovery of an orbital-class rocket; Musk said the odds are "about 50-50 in favor." If this works, Starlink's network deployment costs could be further reduced, extending the story. So SpaceX is currently pulled in two directions: AI is making money fast, but spending even faster; Starship technology is a real breakthrough.Friday night at 21:30, the US October nonfarm payrolls will be revealed
The market expects an increase of 65,000, a clear rebound from September's 29,000, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.2%. CME's pricing for a December rate hike has already reached 72% to 75%
In the past 24 hours, $BTC long positions were liquidated again by 202.7 million, accounting for 92% of total liquidations, but open interest barely moved, and the funding rate remains at a positive premium of +0.6529%, with a long-short position ratio of 65/35, still leaning bullish
A batch of longs falls, and immediately someone fills the same price level. Leverage hasn't been cleared, just changed hands and continues to hold
If employment exceeds expectations, the December rate hike will shift from "priced in" to "confirmed," putting pressure on $BTC. If the data disappoints, it may seem bullish in the short term, but those uncleared leveraged longs on the market might get pulled up by the news only to be harvested in a reversal
The fear and greed index has dropped to 26, indicating the market is in a panic state, but panic does not equal a bottom
The real signal will be whether the funding rate falls from the positive premium and whether open interest truly contracts after the data is released
#美国10月非农前瞻：就业增长或牵动12月加息预期 SK Hynix just released a stunning Q3 report, but its stock price has been on a rollercoaster these past two days.
The performance is truly impressive. In Q3, revenue reached 104.6 trillion KRW, surpassing 100 trillion for the first time in history, more than tripling year-over-year; operating profit hit 83.3 trillion KRW, soaring 632% YoY, with an operating margin of 80%. HBM4 started ramping up, server DDR5 sales exploded, and high value-added products supported the profits.
More importantly, orders are locked in. The company has signed long-term agreements with 14 major clients, securing over half of its capacity through 2027 to 2028. The company itself says that customer demand is twice what they can supply, and the supply shortage situation could last until 2030. HBM4 is expected to surpass HBM3E as the main product in Q4.
But the stock price is far from stable. On November 2, it rose 3.8% to close at 1.47 million KRW, then plunged 5% the next day to 1.398 million KRW. The trigger wasn’t SK Hynix itself, but renewed concerns in the US about AI investment returns. Oracle plans to issue 20 billion in bonds for infrastructure, Anthropic announced nearly 900 billion in spending plans, and the market panicked at this cash burn pace. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index crashed 3.37%, and SK Hynix was hit by foreign investors selling 6.376 trillion KRW.
Another background point worth noting: Samsung is catching up quickly in HBM, narrowing the market share gap with SK Hynix from 33 percentage points in Q3 last year to 17 points in Q2 this year. SK Hynix claims demand is explosively strong, but the competitive landscape is changing.Day 62 of live trading, net value 1.14. BTC slid from 78,300 to 76,825, I reduced my long position from 60% to 30%, with a stop loss set at 75,400. Follow me, every day at 11 PM you can see this position screenshot and every stop loss order placed that day, losses included.
What really matters today isn’t BTC dropping 1.6%, but ZEC dropping 9.8%. Privacy coins are purely driven by sentiment funds this round; the retreat always leads mainstream assets by half a step. Binance processed $4.65 billion in withdrawals today and restored 28 fiat currency channels — this shows liquidity itself isn’t the problem, the issue is capital preference: it’s contracting from peripheral assets to core assets. The structure of “mainstream sideways, altcoins bleeding” is more painful than a full crash because it doesn’t give a clear signal to cut losses, it just grinds you down slowly.
On the macro side, after the NFP data release, the rate cut path is still debated. The 76,000–75,500 range is the cost-intensive zone of this round and the last line of defense for bulls. If it breaks below, I admit I’m wrong and exit; if it holds, I’ll add back to my position. Light positions don’t mean less profit, they mean you have the right to wait for the next signal instead of being forced to make decisions by the market.
At this point, do you swap altcoins for BTC to hold firm, or just clear your position and wait for 72,000?
Follow me, I disclose live trading positions and stop loss logic daily, losses included.
#OKXProphet What important data is there this week? Let's break down the tiers!
Tier 1 (Must Watch)
11/5 Thursday 20:00 Bank of England Interest Rate Decision — The only major central bank this week with a complete decision package (rate + minutes + monetary policy report + Bailey press conference).
11/4 Wednesday 21:30 U.S. Treasury Quarterly Refinancing Announcement — Directly determines the supply rhythm of long-term bonds.
11/3 Tuesday U.S. Midterm Elections — The results will decide whether fiscal expansion will be hindered in the next two years.
Tier 2 (Expectation Impact)
11/5–11/6 Intensive speeches by Federal Reserve officials (Harmak, Williams, Mouselam, Logan) — On 10/29, the FOMC just cut rates to 4%, and the market is looking for confirmation signals for the next step.
11/6 Friday 02:00 ECB Lagarde Speech — The Eurozone deposit rate has dropped to 2.5%, and the October services PMI fell from 6.1 to 5.3, indicating weakening sentiment.
Currently at a relatively low level, meaning the market is underpricing the volatility of these events this week — if any of the three Tier 1 events have surprises, actual volatility could be greater than expected. $ZEC
ZEC has been having a rough time recently. The current price is about $1140, down 11% in 24 hours and over 7% in a week. The direct trigger was some heavy selling on Kraken, combined with $13.7 million in long leverage being liquidated, nearly 90% of which were bullish positions.
But the decline isn't just technical; there are cracks in governance as well. The community grant pool ZCG holds about $125 million, and some large holders feel there's a lack of constraints from token holders on how this money is spent, leading some to liquidate their positions and leave. One whale who was long both spot and futures lost $5.84 million in a few days.
The real variable is November 5. The NU7 upgrade is set to activate, reducing block time from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, tripling confirmation speed. Sounds good, but there's a catch: the old Sprout privacy pool will be frozen, and about 22,000 ZEC still in it will become inaccessible if not migrated before the upgrade. Also, the price has already risen nearly 120% in 90 days, so whether this good news is already priced in is a topic of market speculation.
So right now, ZEC is being pulled in two directions: the NU7 technical upgrade is genuine progress, but governance disputes and leverage liquidations have scattered short-term sentiment. The $1000 level is being closely watched by many; if it breaks, there could be another wave of forced liquidations. #الرئيس التنفيذي الجديد لشركة آبل يستقبل أول تقرير أداء لهاتف iPhone18
#AppleQ4iPhone18Outlook
Market says YES 70¢ / NO 31¢ (69% implied). Real prob is lower.
Consensus $113.4B revenue is already at TOP of Apple's own guidance ($111.7-113.8B). Need to beat their own ceiling.
Add 15% iPhone 18 Pro production cut (Nikkei), memory cost spike, FX -2.5pp.
History: 8 beats in a row, but last beat was saved by tariff refund.
Fair value: YES ~60%, not 70%. NO at 31¢ has edge into Nov 2 print. #PalantirQ3 revenue grows 96%, stock price falls instead of rising $BTC $ETH Palantir's Q3 revenue grew 96%, but the stock price fell instead of rising — this report is almost flawless, yet the market voted with its feet, which itself is the most thought-provoking signal of the week. 【How impressive is the report】 Palantir (PLTR) reported Q3 revenue of $2.313 billion, up 96% year-over-year and 20% quarter-over-quarter, with quarterly revenue surpassing $2 billion for the first time, exceeding the market expectation of about $2.18 billion. Adjusted earnings per share were $0.44, better than the consensus estimate of $0.41. U.S. commercial revenue was $984 million, up 148% year-over-year, surpassing U.S. government revenue for the first time in history; GAAP operating margin was 47%, adjusted free cash flow was $1.216 billion, and the "40 Rule" score reached as high as 158%. The company also raised its full-year revenue guidance to $8.53 billion to $8.534 billion, corresponding to about 91% growth. 【Why the stock still fell】 First, order growth sharply slowed. Q3 new contract total value (TCV) was $2.918 billion, up only 6% year-over-year, compared to 49% in Q2; U.S. commercial TCV increased only 11%, down from 153% last quarter. Revenue is surging, but orders can't keep up, causing market concerns about future momentum. Second, the Q4 guidance midpoint is about $2.65 billion, higher than Wall Street's expectation of about $2.46 billion, but quarter-over-quarter growth is about 14.6%, lower than Q3's 20%. $MU Micron is the same, with weak bullish support.
The recent strong resistance is at 890; even if there is a rebound, it will most likely be pushed down at this level.
It belongs to the storage sector along with SanDisk and Hynix, like grasshoppers on the same rope. AMD's earnings report early this morning is a major risk point. If AMD gives a conservative guidance on AI storage demand, the entire storage chain will see valuation cuts together 📉
Adding to the macro downside from the midterm elections, the market expects the Democrats to control both houses, so the sentiment in the tech and chip sectors is already weak. The storage sector currently has no positive catalysts; rebounds are weak counter-moves, so the trend favors a bearish outlook.$BTC Does this current situation feel especially familiar?
Think back to when Bitcoin surged all the way up to 80,000; the shorts were acting exactly the same. At every small rebound, they thought it was the top; when it rose a bit more, they frantically added to their shorts. Always fantasizing "it can't keep going up forever," only to be squeezed out completely, leaving nothing behind.
And now? The tables have turned, showing the exact opposite scene.
Now it's the longs who refuse to believe otherwise. When it breaks below 76,000, they call it a "solid bottom"; below 75,000, they call it a "golden pit"; and if it really drops to 70,000, they'll still eagerly catch the falling knife with red eyes. Always thinking "it can't fall any further."
Human nature never changes. In an uptrend, every bearish candle is a trap for shorts; in a downtrend, every bullish candle is a trap for longs. Retail investors always try to guess the bottom, while the big players keep smashing the market in the direction of the trend.
Look at my position here, a short opened at 83,436, now the mark price has dropped straight to 76,746.
Look at the order book depth in the top right corner; at 76,742.5 there's a massive sell wall of 22.98 BTC. This is like Mount Tai pressing down! Do the bulls really think they can eat through this wall with just the small change from retail investors? That's a pipe dream. Anyone who dares to show their head gets slammed back into the abyss by big orders instantly.
The big trend is down, don't try to guess the bottom, the bottom will form naturally—let your profits keep flying. Those still fantasizing about "it can't fall anymore, time to bottom fish" will sooner or later be lining up on the rooftop.
$ZEC
$ETH #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ "Only looking at the number of accounts, not the size of positions" — what I care about most is this metric, not how lively the numbers are. OKEx Futures data shows that the $BTC long-short ratio rose from 2.20 24 hours ago to 2.77, with data updated hourly. I'm still catching up on quantitative analysis, but I have a habit: first see what the indicator actually measures, then decide what authority to give it.🤖
If I were to write a strategy, I would set a rule: if the long-short ratio rises, mark it as "account direction leaning more long," but do not automatically generate bullish or bearish signals. My judgment is that it’s better suited as a sentiment tag; using it alone to judge capital strength is somewhat overstepping.
The advantage of this rule is that it avoids an extra step of speculation. A numerical advantage in accounts does not equal a position size advantage, so you can’t directly conclude that long capital is stronger. The loophole is also very specific: a rising ratio could mean more long accounts or fewer short accounts; just looking at the result, I can’t even tell which side is changing. This is a possibility in the metric, not a statement that it has already happened.
So I’ll first put it in the observation column and won’t rush to turn it into a trigger. If you were to write this condition yourself, would you require supplementing the changes in long and short accounts separately, or position size data, before allowing it to participate in directional judgment?"[Institutions and central banks simultaneously bought 211 tons and 321 tons, the long-term gold buying has not yet exited]
In Q3, global gold ETFs had a net inflow of 211 tons, behind the historic high holding of 4,256 tons, there was also a net purchase of 321 tons by various central banks. Both types of funds increased their positions simultaneously, indicating that institutional demand for gold $XAU allocation remains very strong. Especially, central bank gold purchases increased by 42% year-on-year, with China and Poland as the main buyers, accumulating 675 tons of gold purchases this year, already exceeding the same period last year.
Gold currently faces a clear contradiction: institutions are buying, but the price has dropped about 29% from the January high of $5,595 to around $3,910 now. Rising oil prices have pushed up inflation expectations, the Federal Reserve's rate cut expectations have cooled, the US dollar and US Treasury yields have strengthened, and short-term funds are simply unwilling to ignore the opportunity cost of holding gold.
Additionally, in Q3, demand for gold bars and coins fell 19% year-on-year, jewelry consumption dropped 17%, showing that ordinary investors and physical consumption are clearly lagging behind institutional buying. My judgment is that the long-term allocation logic for gold remains bullish, with continuous central bank gold purchases providing underlying support, but it is not yet time to chase the rally in the short term. Institutions are accumulating chips while the market is still digesting interest rate pressure; this divergence will be the key to the upcoming gold market trend.#PalantirQ3 revenue grew 96%, but the stock price fell instead of rising
Palantir's earnings exploded but got hit, AI money is quietly changing pockets
After watching PLTR after-hours last night, my first reaction was the same as many others: these numbers would boost anyone, but it didn’t rise.
Q3 revenue was 2.313 billion, up 96% year-over-year, 130 million more than expected; EPS 0.44, also exceeded expectations. The full-year guidance was directly raised above 8.53 billion, significantly higher than the market’s original 8.2 billion. The strongest statement on the call was: U.S. commercial revenue 984 million, beating the U.S. government for the first time ever, sovereign AI is pushing pilots into big deals, net retention rate reached 165%.
But the stock price didn’t acknowledge it. Closed at 178.34, after-hours dropped to around 173, down 3%. The problem is not this quarter, but TCV growth only 6%, U.S. commercial TCV +11%, the slowest since 2023. Revenue is growing faster than contracts signed, the market worries about "what will renew next quarter."
As for whether AI trading has returned — it has, but with different players. Funds are moving from crowded AI semiconductor stocks to software stocks that can deliver results, with buying after PLTR, TWLO, TEAM earnings. But PLTR’s problem is it carries both "high valuation" and "slowing contract signing" stones; money is willing to come but not chase.
My move: didn’t add before earnings, not rushing to buy on the drop. Waiting for TCV growth to be digested, to see if there’s real money buying at the 130-140 level Mainstream on-chain analysis (Santiment) defines addresses holding ≥1,000 BTC as BTC whales - latest statistics: 2,044 addresses ≥ 1,000 BTC, holding about 7.17 million BTC in total, accounting for nearly 36% of circulating supply. However! Addresses ≠ Genuine and independent individuals/institutions, which is the easiest pitfall: Includes cold exchange wallets, ETF custody addresses, platform reserve wallets, not all large individual users. For example, an exchange may have several such whale addresses, which actually belong to the same institution. More detailed layering (another sub-caliber) - Sharks: 1,000–5,000 BTC - Whales: 5,000–10,000 BTC (narrow sense) ≈ over 100 addresses - Humpback whales (super whales): > 10,000 BTC, fewer than 100 addresses. This includes MicroStrategy, the US government, early tycoons, and large custodians. Two key misconceptions: 1. It's impossible to know the real "number of whales": one person can control dozens of wallets; A single wallet could also be the money of many users (exchanges), and on-chain you can only count addresses, making it hard to distinguish the entities behind them. 2. Different platforms have different entry barriers: Some media outlets are a bit more lenient, calling ≥100 BTC 'big holder,' and the number of addresses increases to nearly 20,000, so they shouldn't be confused. In short, summarize by the most commonly used in the circle: 1My first reaction wasn’t "computing power is about to take off again," but rather feeling concerned for the cloud providers. This kind of news is easily seen as a general positive for infrastructure, but what I’m more interested in is: will major clients gradually become competitors?
According to the updated prospectus this time, Anthropic’s revenue in Q3 was $16.96 billion. While signing long-term agreements with Amazon, Google, and Microsoft, it is also directly purchasing chips, participating in data center construction, and even seeking power and facilities from cryptocurrency mining companies.
Thinking about it the other way around, I judge this as a warning for the bargaining power of cloud providers. One reason is that when clients get involved in construction themselves, they have more options beyond cloud services; another reason is that if this path succeeds, cloud providers may gradually shift from being providers of full-service packages to suppliers selected by clients on demand. This is my speculation and does not mean it has already happened.
Do you think Anthropic is supplementing computing power or weakening its dependence on cloud providers? Opposing views are welcome for debate.Sony's Q2 report will be most useful for showing whether recurring digital revenues can carry weight across both PlayStation and music. Software, subscriptions, streaming and licensing each reward engagement, but they do not move in lockstep.
I will be watching for the balance between those lines, not simply their growth. The release may clarify how diversified Sony's consumer ecosystem really is.
#SonyQ2GamingAndMusic 🔥Don't be tempted by the screen full of green bars; looking only at a few hours of K-line can easily mislead you into thinking a major rebound has started. Extend the timeframe to a month, and the dog trader's chain of traps has long been set.
$BTC short-term four-hour chart shows spot and futures contracts flowing in simultaneously, making the market look hot. But on a 30-day scale, futures have a net outflow of 10.1 billion, and spot has lost nearly 1.8 billion. Short-term funds are hyping the market themselves, while big capital has quietly withdrawn. Jumping in now to chase longs means catching the chips the main force is distributing.
$ETH's scheme is even more obvious: 24-hour futures inflow of 135 million creates a false V-shaped reversal illusion. Over 30 days, futures outflow 9.4 billion and spot loses 2.8 billion. Heavy selling pressure above means this rally is essentially paving the way for unloading, full of traps to lure buyers—don't get caught up.
Only $SOL shows a different signal: although short-term futures are being dumped, spot has continuous net inflows from 12 hours to 30 days, accumulating over 36 million in 30 days. Large holders are slowly accumulating at the bottom. Unfortunately, with weak overall market sentiment, it's hard to see an independent trend in the short term; patience is required.
In short: short-term green is bait; the 30-day capital flow is the trump card. Big money is strategically retreating; retail investors shouldn't rush in as cannon fodder. For now, watch more and act less, protect your principal.
With long-term funds continuously bleeding, will you just lie flat and play dead, or use the rebound to reduce your position?
#NonFarmPayrollsIncoming, will December rate hikes change?One address has accumulated a loss of 38.19 million USD, then completely closed out its position.
The on-chain action is very straightforward: 0x1f25...f925 reduced its BTC short position by 7.66 million USD, fully closed the position at an average price of 76,804 USD, and after closing, the account no longer holds any BTC position. This is not a halving, not a portfolio adjustment, but a full liquidation.
What’s most worth noting here is not the 38.19 million figure, but the gap between 7.66 million and 38.19 million. This closed position was only 7.66 million USD, but the account’s cumulative loss is 38.19 million. In other words, this short position is not the entire source of the loss; there were other drains before. After losing 38.19 million, the final choice was to recognize the remaining 7.66 million all at once and exit.
The average price of 76,804 USD is both the exit price and the market price at which this batch of shorts was absorbed. Shorts actively exit not because they suddenly turn bullish, but because the cost of continuing to hold has exceeded what they can bear.
So this closing is more like a stop loss rather than a judgment call.
What’s interesting next is that this address no longer holds any BTC position. It no longer has any directional exposure; price rises or falls no longer concern it. Meanwhile, the market has just absorbed a 7.66 million USD short squeeze at this price level.
The real question is not how much he lost, but how many others like him are still holding on.$ARB dropped 5.4% today, with Coinglass reporting around 0.152. It's been hot this week because the Arbitrum Security Council did something chilling.
On October 30, the council, with a 9/12 multisig, temporarily changed the Inbox contract on Ethereum, impersonated the Binance hacker's address, and transferred 8,425 ETH and 74.56 million ARB, about $30 million, without touching private keys, then reverted the contract back to its original state. The funds are locked in a frozen address and can only be moved by a DAO vote. KelpDAO did a similar ETH move during its April hack. The problem is there are no on-chain rules limiting which addresses they can target.
In September, thanks to Robinhood Chain $HOOD, fees surged, pushing ARB to 0.22. It rose 86% over 90 days but gave back 24% in 30 days, with a net spot outflow of $139 million over 30 days. Contract trading volume hit 160 million in one day, while spot was only 20 million, with holdings at 198 million, accounting for 19% of market cap. Funding rate is 0.01%, OKX long-short ratio is 1.93, with 600,000 liquidations in one day, almost all longs.
The frozen 74.56 million ARB was a looming sell pressure, comparable to the 92.65 million tokens unlocking on November 16. Bulls betting on controversy don't hurt Robinhood Chain's revenue; fees remain stable, and the 0.13 dip in September found buyers. What could really break it is if exchanges or whales withdraw assets from Arbitrum due to this impersonation; no one will pick up the tokens unlocking on the 16th.Before S&P adjusted Meta's credit outlook, warning signals had already appeared in the credit market.
On October 22, Meta's five-year credit default swap rose to a record high at the time, about 114.79 basis points. This indicator roughly reflects the cost investors pay for protection against debt default risk. This only refers to the change at that time and should not be taken as today's latest quote.
What I find noteworthy is the timing: investors' concerns about AI spending and future funding needs were already priced in before the rating outlook adjustment.
Of course, rising protection costs do not mean the company will default immediately. The credit market is also influenced by liquidity, trading demand, and overall risk appetite. But it reminds shareholders that creditors have started to price expansion plans more seriously.
Stock investors can expect a business boom in a few years, while creditors will repeatedly calculate payment, financing, and debt repayment arrangements. For the same company, the two types of capital worry about different key points.
I am still willing to see how Meta turns AI investment into business results, but I will no longer focus solely on advertising revenue and user growth. If future financing becomes more expensive, the costs required for expansion may also increase.
As this round of AI competition progresses, beyond technology launches, the bond and credit markets are equally worth watching. How long funds are willing to support and how much return they require are influencing how fast expansion can proceed.
#Meta信用展望转负，AI投资信用风险受关注 TRON has a strange position. The network operates as a payment rail for the dollar: about $94.37 billion in stablecoins, 97.85% of which are USDT (DefiLlama, November 2, 2026). And the $TRX token is priced around $0.32 with a market cap of $30.03 billion. There are roughly three times more stablecoins on the network than the token itself is worth. Hence the main question: how much of this activity benefits the TRX holder? The answer is not obvious. Fees are burned, but issuance continues, and there is no direct income distribution to holders. For context: on October 29, 2026, there was a#US Midterm Elections Are Approaching, Which Results Are Worth Watching?
Today is the US midterm election, and the results will directly determine the survival line of the Bitcoin and Ethereum we hold next year. Don’t just focus on the market; keeping an eye on congressional seats is the key.
Big players in the circle really went all out this time, donating $233 million in political contributions in one go. Simply put, they want to get a few crypto-friendly lawmakers into Congress.
This actually has a bigger impact on ETH than BTC. What ETH fears most now is regulatory crackdowns. If legislation can clearly define it as not a security, those off-exchange institutional funds would have already rushed in.
However, current polls show the Democrats are still leading in key districts. I’m quite worried they will hold onto their seats because the current regulators have always been unfriendly to us, frequently issuing subpoenas, which really messes with people’s mindset.
In the last bear market, I held on stubbornly without understanding the tightening regulatory signals and ended up losing badly. This time I’ve learned my lesson and am keeping my positions light.
If the Republicans can take key seats, Bitcoin has a good chance to surge to new highs by the end of the year; if it ends in a stalemate, we should just watch quietly and not rush in recklessly. $MRVL just took a quick bite to eat, then came across this post by a cultivation master and the MRVL K-line chart, and I almost sprayed my screen with my noodle soup. This metaphor is on par with "Ma Huateng wanting to pay salaries with Q coins"—a god-level analogy, hitting the nail on the head!
【Hardcore review of this "getting something for nothing" move】:
Look at the daily chart in image 2, dropping straight from 278 to 171, a nearly 40% decline! All moving averages are in a bearish alignment, MACD dead cross deep in the water zone. This drop is totally justified.
Marvell, with a market cap of 200 billion, acquired the 100 billion old bread (Lumentum) without paying cash, instead playing a crazy stock issuance game of "4.5 shares for 1 share." This is akin to paying salaries with Q coins—the essence is using one’s "virtual chips" during a high valuation period to exchange for solid core assets.
The market voted with its feet, showing capital what "faith collapse" means. You exchange paper for real assets, so everyone can only smash the market to crush your "paper" back to its true form. The meme in the picture saying "hold for 10,000 years and see" is a perfect piece of dark humor.
【My advice】:
Using the most virtual stocks to buy the hardest assets ends with the harshest smash. Before elections, all funds are running away; never catch a falling knife in targets with deteriorating fundamentals and valuation restructuring. Let this "Q coin-style" acquisition’s bitter fruit be digested slowly by itself.People tend to mistake the ability to quote prices on weekends as a risk control upgrade, but I am actually a bit cautious: having an additional price signal doesn't necessarily mean more stability.
Chainlink states that Aave Horizon uses perpetual contracts to provide weekend pricing for stock collateral. Thinking about it the other way, I don't consider it a safety net: first, I speculate that if contract noise enters the valuation, it could amplify collateral pressure; second, the quotes don't guarantee that there will be someone to take the seized assets. I am more interested in how it filters noise rather than just whether the quotes are online.Still relying on institutional accumulation news to justify going long?
BTC is currently at 76827.6, with MA20 at 80468.8; if the resistance isn't broken, all the positive news could just be a facade. Strategy spent 65.5 million to add 811 BTC, but repurchased preferred shares at a cost of 208 million.
Each treasury has completely different approaches. Metaplanet is increasing its position in BTC, BitMine is aggressively acquiring 8573 ETH, bringing its holdings to 6.06 million.
Institutions building positions in batches doesn't mean they'll pump the price immediately.
ETH has no independent trend. When BTC drops sharply, ETH falls even harder; when the market recovers, it can only follow along to gain.
Many only see accumulation but overlook the underlying debt and financing costs. Companies have their own cycles; they aren't here just to support retail investors.
The previous low at 74896 still hangs below. If the positive factors can't hold, the decline won't be gentle. $BTC $ETH #Strategy回购规模超购币三倍，财库策略转向？ Does $OP's multi-chain security anxiety weaken the expansion efficiency of the OP Stack? Sharing the tech stack can reduce deployment costs, but the security responsibilities and liquidity between different chains still need to be clarified. If new deployments bring new users, fees, and developers, the collaborative value of the OP ecosystem is enhanced. The opposing view is that an increase in the number of chains causes asset fragmentation; if new chains rely mainly on subsidies and users do not stay, expansion actually increases maintenance costs. Evaluating the activity and cross-chain settlement quality of each chain is necessary; the number of deployments cannot be equated with network revenue. When further confirming, I will separate the impact of news, capital flow, and real usage for examination; only if at least two of these remain aligned across multiple periods will I adjust the mid-term judgment. If only short-term price or a single indicator changes, I will remain cautious and wait for subsequent data. #US Midterm Elections Are Approaching, Which Results Are Worth Watching?
Tonight Americans vote not for a person, but for who will hold power for the next two years.
Today is November 3rd. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives are up for election, 35 of the 100 Senate seats are contested, and 36 states are electing governors. Before the election, Republicans hold 218 seats in the House, just a majority, Democrats have 214 seats; in the Senate, Republicans have 53 seats, Democrats plus allied independents have 47 seats.
The most important to watch is the House of Representatives. Democrats need a net gain of just 3 seats to reach 218 seats. Polls and ratings lean more seats toward Democrats. The Senate requires a net gain of 4 seats to achieve a majority, which is much more difficult, so the possibility of a House flip is greater than the Senate.
For the market, the key is not who wins a slogan, but whether Congress is divided or unified. If Democrats take the House, it will be harder to advance legislation in the president’s second term, policy uncertainty will rise first, and capital often waits and watches, setting direction after results are certified and the new Congress is sworn in.
Early voting has already set records. As of the morning of November 2nd, about 54.8 million votes have been cast by mail and early in-person voting, exceeding about 45.9 million in 2022. The Cook Political Report’s October 23rd rating lists 219 seats leaning Democratic, 198 leaning Republican, and 17 toss-ups. The average congressional vote poll shows Democrats leading by 8.9 percentage points.
The market does not fear the results, only the wait without results.$ZHIPU
A while ago, I said the AI sector hadn't peaked yet. Today, the Zhipu token dropped 8.1% in 24 hours, trading at 56.69, just over one point above the daily low of 55.66. My face hurts a bit.
On the same day, Wall Street was arguing among itself. On one side, asset management giants warned that AI is a bubble; on the other, investment bank executives said spending in this area could reach $15 trillion over the next decade, and the Blackstone president also said computing power demand far exceeds supply.
After listening to both sides, I don't really believe either. They're debating something that will only have answers ten years from now; what I care about is tonight's market.
The Zhipu contract market is too small, with open interest only $3.14 million, fee settlement at -0.046%, shorts paying, yet the premium is still positive at 0.44%. I don't believe this market reflects smart money; a few hundred contracts can move the price by two or three points.
An 8% drop doesn't mean institutions are exiting, and a rebound doesn't mean they're coming back.
This month, I've changed my stance on this sector so much that I'm annoyed with myself. I'll just keep quiet and watch the market. I'll talk about direction again when open interest reaches tens of millions of dollars.
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ Bitcoin is trading near $76,813, and the market cannot agree on what that number means. Galaxy reads the move back above the 50-week moving average as evidence that the bottom is in. Rekt sees the same chart and reaches the opposite conclusion: resistance at $78,500 has held, the downtrend remains valid, and the next level below is $76,000. Two credible desks, one price, two irreconcilable verdicts. That divergence is the real story, because it tells you positioning is still unresolved rather th$SNDK
Nasdaq will switch to 23-hour trading starting December 6. This news was buried among a bunch of AI headlines today; I had to read it twice.
The SNDK token is currently priced at 1091.2, down from 1178.7 24 hours ago, a 7.4% drop, and only about $20 above today's low of 1069.2. On the same day, SK Hynix fell 5.3% in 24 hours, while SK Group's Chey Tae-won is proposing that South Korea and Japan collaborate on AI and semiconductors.
The news is positive, but the market is cold. At times like this, I usually ignore the news and watch the market.
Token holdings are at $123 million, down from $137 million at midnight, a decrease, but no one is really dumping. The fee rate is still at +0.015%, so longs are still paying. The problem isn't the drop, it's that no one wants to take the other side.
Once Nasdaq truly switches to 23-hour trading, the only selling point for token stocks—that "I can still trade after US stock market close"—will fade. People buying this now are betting on the time difference, not the company.
I'm done with this direction. When the day comes, we'll see whose positions remain.
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ The ChiNext Index hit a new low, but the historical pattern hasn't been broken yet. Currently, the main decline in the market is still in semiconductor and technology-related stocks, while the main gains are in the old leading stocks. For example, Kweichow Moutai has risen up to 28% from its low at the end of June. Mindray Medical has risen up to 44%, which was the main theme of the last bull market, having fallen for 5 years and recently started to perform.
If you want to bottom-fish, I don't recommend technology-related stocks; prioritize indices first, then old leading stocks.
The index rebound might be driven by the old leading stocks, so if you pick the wrong sector, you could still lose money even if the index rises.
The polarization in the A-share market is very severe; a 10% loss requires a forced stop-loss. Although this often results in mistakes, it definitely prevents major losses.
Regarding gold, based on previous performance around midterm elections, the gold market is expected to start after the midterm elections, which is on November 3rd Eastern Time, 13 hours later than our time. From a technical perspective, gold is also oversold, but after the drop, it hasn't risen in the morning, indicating the central bank hasn't intervened. The central bank usually acts in the morning. However, starting to dollar-cost average at this position likely won't lose money before the end of the year.There's something quite divisive: Nvidia's B300 chip rents for $7.56 an hour, about 56% more expensive than at the start of the year. With such high demand, companies involved should be snapped up, right? Yet the hottest trade in the market is buying their decline.
CoreWeave's stock price is $55, and the hottest options are puts expiring in 2028 with a strike price of $35. The cost of default insurance for Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta has also hit its highest level since 2021. $BTC is just watching from the sidelines, barely moving.
So is computing power just too expensive, or is everyone afraid it won't be worth this price in the future? The risk of this AI wave was first priced not in stock prices, but in bond insurance.
The cost of debt default protection for Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, and Oracle has risen to the highest level since 2021. Investors and tech companies themselves are buying options and CDS, hedging against debt default and computing power depreciation.
Look at a specific trade. CoreWeave's hottest option is a put option expiring in 2028 with a strike price of $35, while its stock price is about $55. The strike price is twenty dollars below the current price, which is not short-term protection but insurance bought for two years later.
The contradiction lies on the other side: Nvidia's B300 rental price has risen about 56% this year to $7.56 per hour. Computing power prices are still rising, indicating demand hasn't collapsed; but capital is buying downside protection, indicating concern not about no business now, but about prices dropping after high-priced contracts expire.
Jump Trading has even set up a computing power trading department to help clients hedge against computing power depreciation. With derivatives on computing power, it becomes a commodity that can be priced bidirectionally. $BTC and $ETH are priced by liquidity and are actually more stable than AI in the short term.
The signal is not that AI is over, but that valuations are constrained by debt costs: a 56% rent increase signals demand, while record-high default insurance signals financing; both appearing simultaneously means expansion relies on more expensive money. Once computing power can be shorted, the pricing logic of coins like $TAO will inevitably change.Conclusion first: The $ARB Security Council just proved one thing — on Arbitrum, your money is not entirely protected by your private key. In the early hours of November 3rd, without obtaining the hacker's private key, it froze and moved $30 million. Some media described the entire process as taking only 10 minutes. This was the fastest on-chain response in the recent $6.3 billion Binance hack, and also the most chilling.
On the same day, Binance began the second phase of withdrawal recovery, with net outflows estimated by media between $3.6 billion and $5.8 billion; the FBI accused North Korea, which denied the allegations; analysts said hackers laundered $242 million through Tron, and the FBI is interrogating THORChain.
But $ARB's market did not price in this "good news": current price is 0.1531, down 4.6% in 24 hours, down 24.9% in 30 days, with a market cap of only $1.05 billion, and $ARB perpetual positions on OKX are only $13.14 million.
My view: Being able to trace stolen funds on-chain is certainly a skill, but the premise of this skill is a multisig that can bypass your private key. When your money is on L2, "impossible to be taken away" was never a promise.
Would you put your assets on a chain where "if something goes wrong, they can move your money for you"? $ARBThis week's macro analysis part three: The U.S. midterm elections, who will control Congress? Republican vs. Democrat, different outcomes bring different short- and medium-term risks! The voting phase of the U.S. midterm elections officially ended on November 3. Next comes about a month of vote counting, tallying, election result certification, and the transition between outgoing and incoming legislators. As of now, statistics show that in the two chambers of the U.S. Congress, the probability of the Republican Party becoming the majority in the House of Representatives is only 5%, and the probability of majority in the Senate is only between 20%-25%. Currently, the Democratic Party clearly holds the advantage, and that advantage is expanding. Trump's situation is very unfavorable at present. From 8:00 AM to 2:00 PM Beijing time on November 4, voting in all U.S. states officially ended. Before that, Trump still had several swing states to contest in an effort to improve Senate victory chances; otherwise, he faces the painful prospect of losing control of both chambers of Congress. #U.S.midtermelectionscoming, which results are worth watching? Current swing states: South Carolina, North Carolina, Maine, Arizona, Iowa, Texas, Wisconsin. Among them, Iowa, Maine, South Carolina, Wisconsin, and Arizona are currently held by Republicans, North Carolina by Democrats, and Texas is temporarily vacant. In this election, Trump faces these swing states. Except Wisconsin and Arizona, which are not up for re-election, the other states should be prioritized based on their weight: Texas, Iowa, Maine, South Carolina, and North Carolina. Texas + Iowa, one is a Republican stronghold, the other has Democrats leading by only 1%, these twoETH continues to weaken, and the market is generally bearish, which is the result of multiple factors resonating across macro liquidity, fundamentals, capital flow, and technical aspects. The core reasons can be broken down into the following points:
1. The deflationary engine of the token economy has directly stalled
Currently, the base fee on the Ethereum mainnet is only 0.06 Gwei, far below the "burn-mint balance line" of 13.63 Gwei. The entire network has a net daily issuance of about 2,954 ETH, corresponding to nearly $7 million in new selling pressure. The once "scarcer with more use" deflation narrative has completely failed. On-chain activity seems stable, but the token burn per transaction is close to zero, breaking the transmission chain between network usability and token scarcity.
2. Core upgrade benefits fall through, ecosystem enters reshuffle period
The highly anticipated Glamsterdam upgrade (which planned to raise the mainnet Gas limit from 60 million to 200 million) was directly halted due to contract vulnerabilities found during security audits. The December mainnet launch window has closed with no new clear timetable. Meanwhile, the L2 ecosystem is broadly declining, with TVL of leading projects shrinking significantly, flagship applications migrating back to the mainnet, and the incremental narrative of the Layer 2 ecosystem completely failing, leaving no new demand to absorb selling pressure.
3. Institutional funds continue net outflows, buying support completely absent
The US Ethereum spot ETF saw net redemptions exceeding $1.6 billion in October alone, with daily outflows peaking over $100 million. Institutional funds continue to withdraw from ETH, instead flowing into BTC, which has clear buying support. #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 Seeing traditional assets being put on-chain again, I have a bit of a sense of déjà vu from the last cycle: everyone is talking again about what else can be supported on-chain besides native assets. This time, at least there are concrete data: Solana disclosed that the tokenized stocks of SK Hynix have reached a trading volume of $500 million so far, with over 10,000 holders.
I prefer to see this as a validation of on-chain asset supply rather than the engine of a new cycle. Unlike just talking about on-chain space, this time both trading volume and holders have scale; but the transaction amount is not net inflow, so we cannot judge that new money has arrived based on this. The popularity of a single asset does not directly prove that the entire tokenized stock sector is running smoothly.
In my view, this news is more significant for the asset issuance side than for the overall market sentiment. If more assets can continue to generate trading in the future, then the logic of on-chain as an asset distribution channel will be more solid. I will first see if this demand can be replicated and am not in a hurry to call for a cycle shift.Historically, the Nasdaq and S&P have delivered excellent returns after the US midterm elections.
Recently, the US stock market experienced a sharp decline, and the fear index reached an extreme level. From a technical perspective, the Nasdaq's 200-day moving average can be simply used as a long-term entry reference point.
The original plan is to buy Nasdaq spot in batches, extending the cycle. No one can predict where the bottom is. If you avoid the decline, you will most likely miss out on the subsequent surge. Choosing to buy those assets that will definitely rise later during the decline is the easiest way for ordinary people to make money. Crypto Market Three-Line Observation: Rates, Whales, and Forks (¬_¬)
$BTC is currently at 77,783, with a fear index of 30. ETF net outflow in a single day is $643 million, while derivatives exposure has actually expanded, and the funding rate remains at +0.0074%, meaning longs are still paying. Deleveraging is not over; the rebound looks more like short covering rather than new capital attacking. The upper target is 78,000 for recovery, 76,000 is the bottom line, and next we watch when the funding rate will "give up" (｡•́︿•̀｡).
$ETH is at 2,266. Spot ETFs have had net outflows for 23 consecutive days, setting a new record; however, a giant whale withdrew 34.69 million USDC from Kraken and bought 15,216 ETH on-chain at an average price of 2,279. At the upper level of 2,347, there is $477 million in short liquidation, while 2,143 is a minefield for longs. Whale buying pressure and ETF selling pressure—who will blink first? (ง •̀_•́)ง
$ZEC is at 1,243. The NU7 hard fork activates on November 5, reducing block time from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, but the price dropped from 1,400 to 1,243, a typical "buy the rumor, sell the fact" scenario. 1,200–1,180 is recent support; breaking below that points to 1,100–1,050.
In short: BTC watches the funding rate, ETH watches 2,143, and ZEC watches whether 1,200 holds. Don't rush, the market is forcing answers (￣▽￣)ノ
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ 🔥 In this round of BTC decline, who is making money and who is bearing losses? Smart money position data provides a very intuitive answer: currently, shorts dominate and longs are clearly under pressure.
📊 Statistics show that there are 2,930 traders in BTC USDT perpetual contracts, with a nominal long-short ratio of 21.82%. There are 1,120 longs holding 693.03M USDT, with an average entry price of 84895.68, and a profit ratio of only 7.76%; there are 1,810 shorts holding 3.17B USDT, with an average entry price of 76143.25, and a profit ratio of 73.14%.
📉 The gap between the two sides is very obvious: the proportion of profitable longs is low, while the proportion of profitable shorts is high. Short-term shorts temporarily hold the initiative. However, this is only the current platform's statistical sample and cannot be directly equated to the real capital distribution of the entire market.
🐳 Another detail worth noting: when a large number of shorts are already in profit, if there is a concentrated take-profit afterward, the market may also see a rapid rebound. So while being bearish, one cannot ignore the risk of reverse volatility.
🎯 BTC short-term focus is on 76000 support and 79000 resistance. My strategy is to treat it as a range-bound market first, not blindly chasing orders, nor holding positions for a long time lightly. The truly effective direction requires price to break through key areas for confirmation.
The market is not about who has the largest position winning for sure; those who can control drawdowns are the ones who last. Do you think the next step will test 76000 first or push to 79000? #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ The meme circle was flooded with a dinner event this week, but prices didn't rise; instead, they fell. DOGE, PEPE, TRUMP—one is working on products, one is burning out on sentiment, and one is cutting supply. All three are retail sentiment thermometers, but there's a huge difference in who has something to hold onto people.
$DOGE is the "most product-active" among the three. MyDoge released V3, added swap and DogeOS entry points, and merged the three into Dogecoin Labs. The DogeOS testnet is still being pushed; it has the thickest liquidity in the meme sector and acts as the ballast stone of the segment. Stable but not flashy, it’s slowly building with products, more reliable than pure sentiment plays.
$PEPE is still propped up by high turnover, but its momentum has cooled. Its trading volume stands out even against big tokens, but high turnover doesn’t equal lasting demand. The strong rebound after Binance was hacked on October 29 has already faded. PEPE has popularity but lacks functionality; it pumps up quickly but dumps just as fast. I don’t chase short-term spikes that rush too hard.
$TRUMP is the "most bottomless" of the three; even the dinner event can’t save its price. The second dinner is set for November 22, with a snapshot on November 12, but after the announcement, the price didn’t rise and instead fell about 8% from the rating starting point. Circulation is only 282 million, accounting for 28% of the total supply; the rest is released by affiliated companies on schedule, leaving very little from its historical highs. My stance: TRUMP is a supply machine, the dinner is just hype, and I won’t touch it.
For meme tokens to rise, it depends on who has products to hold people. For something like TRUMP that only leaks supply without holding, the dinner event is useless. Big Brother Maji is back at the table, this time putting his entire net worth on a long position in Ethereum. Leveraged to the max, his lifeline hangs just a step away from the current price. This kind of on-chain open card is worth watching more than any indicator.
According to Hyperbot data, he is currently holding a 25x long position of 2,725 ETH, with an average entry price of 2,263, a mark price of 2,250, an unrealized loss of $35,000, and a liquidation price of 2,227, less than 1% away. What does this have to do with me? It’s exactly the position I’ve been repeatedly talking about these past two days: I only consider adding to my position if ETH holds above 2,300, and Big Brother’s lifeline at 2,227 is just below this support. He’s not my weather vane; he’s the first domino blocking my buy point.
The impact is direct: the whole network can see his position, and the bears will definitely hunt for 2,227. If it really drops there, the chain reaction of liquidations will cause a spike, ironically delivering a spot buy opportunity right to me; if he holds through, the short squeeze fuel increases.
So my strategy remains unchanged: hold the spot base position, don’t chase above 2,300; never gamble with contracts on his life, wait for the liquidation cascade to finish and the right side to stabilize before entering. Others bet direction with 25x leverage, I only profit from his volatility, not follow his position.
No need to guess with an open card, just wait.#On-chain tokenized stock scale hits new high, traditional financial institutions accelerate layout
The leader has something to say
The circulation scale of on-chain tokenized stocks has reached about $3.8 billion, breaking records for 10 consecutive weeks. On the product side, Securitize added 13 tokenized US stocks on Solana, covering McDonald's, Disney, and Uber. On the infrastructure side, the NYSE partnered with Broadridge to provide on-chain shareholder voting and transfer services for tokenized stock platforms.
I believe this marks the transition of RWA from hype to real infrastructure implementation. The comment section mentioned that Ethereum-based tokenized stocks grew 170% year-on-year to $827 million. Wall Street is moving the core mechanisms of equity rights and clearing transfers onto the chain. Once the infrastructure is complete, the entry barrier for traditional financial capital will be completely removed.
But don't expect a short-term pump. Infrastructure building is a slow variable. Today SOL rose slightly by 0.12%, SECZ fell by 0.79%, and capital reacted calmly. BTC is still fluctuating between 77,000 and 80,000, with all funds waiting for this week's Nonfarm Payroll and CPI.
Let's see if BTC can retake 80,000. If it can't hold, expect a deeper correction, with resistance above at 84,000 to 85,000. Don't chase the rise or kill the dip; set your orders with stop-loss properly.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; orders must have stop-loss set. Good luck. $BTC $BTC $ZEC $OFC This fw project team, the entire Polymarket collaboration, issued 25 million coins, distributed to 16,000 people, and 10,000 people have not received theirs yet. After checking, basically all were sniped by bots, dropping the price from 0.008 to 0.005 like that. There are pictures and evidence. The airdrop was also stolen by bots, rewards were stolen too, trash.After the US midterm elections, $BTC fell in the first three times.
In 2014, it dropped up to 46% within 71 days
In 2018, it dropped up to 50% within 39 days
In 2022, it dropped up to 15% within 13 days
The 2026 election day is coming again
Will history repeat itself? #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？
Today’s midterm election is a short-term sentiment amplifier for the crypto space, not a direct reversal button.
The market is already weak, and volatility will increase around the election results.
Short term: mostly disruption, risks remain
Bitcoin continues to be weak today, around $76,600, hitting a more than one-month low.
The market is currently under three layers of pressure: election uncertainty + ongoing impact from the Binance large-scale hack + weakness in tech stocks.
Mid term: key focus on the CLARITY Act and control of Congress
This midterm election mainly decides control of both houses of Congress and will not directly change the White House.
If the Democrats expand control, progress on crypto market structural bills like the CLARITY Act may slow, making regulatory-friendly legislation more difficult.
If the Republicans maintain control of Congress, the Trump administration’s push for crypto-related legislation will proceed more smoothly.
However, the stablecoin framework GENIUS Act has already passed, so the short-term regulatory direction won’t reverse overnight.
Market outlook
Don’t treat the election as a "guaranteed bullish signal." Historically, Bitcoin has rebounded after midterms, but this is more related to the four-year cycle, liquidity, and ETF fund flows, not simply the voting results.
In the short term, watch fund flows and key levels:
Support zone at the lower side around $74,800–$77,000;
On the upside, Bitcoin needs to reclaim $80,000 and see ETF funds flowing back to confirm sentiment recovery. $BTC $ETH I believe Circle's Q3 earnings report will not exceed expectations, mainly for four reasons:
1. Revenue expectations are too high. The market consensus is about $790 million, a 12% increase from Q2's $701 million, requiring significant business growth to achieve.
2. The scale of USDC is key. Circle mainly earns interest from USDC reserves; even if on-chain transactions become more active, it doesn't mean revenue will grow proportionally. At the end of Q2, USDC circulation was $73.3 billion. If the average scale in Q3 does not rebound significantly, revenue growth lacks support.
3. Limited contribution from interest rate hikes. The 25 basis point rate hike in mid-September only affects the last two weeks of Q3 revenue. Based on a $73 billion reserve scale, the additional interest income is about $7 million, which is hard to fill the nearly $90 million revenue increase.
4. New businesses are temporarily unable to play a major role. Other income in Q2 was about $34 million, less than 5% of total revenue. Although Arc and the payment network have long-term development potential, commercialization takes time and is unlikely to bring significant revenue contribution within one quarter.
#Circle財報在即，穩定幣成長能否轉化為收益？ Here's a different way of thinking:
What if the Democratic Party wins both chambers? What happens next?
Common thinking: It's over, crypto legislation is completely dead. The Democrats in power will push through many bills, including impeaching the president, investigating Musk, and a series of priority bills and policies favoring Democrats and attacking Republicans.
My thinking: In the next two years, none of the bills or policies proposed by the Democrats will pass. They will all be vetoed by Trump, who will become the veto president and is capable of making that happen. The only crypto bill will ironically be the breakthrough point. Ultimately, this will force Democrats and Republicans to sit down and negotiate.