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$BTC BTC fell below $76,000, the real danger is leverage
On November 5th, BTC fell below $76,000, with about $1.08 billion liquidated in the market within 24 hours, including about $954 million in long positions.
This drop is not just a story within the crypto circle. The US tech stock sector weakened simultaneously, risk appetite quickly cooled, and leverage liquidations amplified the volatility.
I want to focus on three things: whether spot buying can hold, whether contract leverage is fully cleared, and whether trading volume keeps up during price rebounds.
The decline is just the result; the capital structure is the clue. The first bullish candle after a crash does not necessarily mean a trend reversal. Rather than rushing to guess the bottom, it's better to first see if the market can stabilize. 🚨Observation: Payment gateways, on-chain transactions, institutional assets—who will realize value first?
Whenever the market gets good news, it shouts "take off," but right now I want to see real users and revenue. These three directions happen to reveal different progress stages in the crypto industry.
First, look at SOL. On November 5, the Solana Foundation confirmed that Samsung Wallet has opened on-chain USDC accounts to eligible U.S. Galaxy users, supporting sending, receiving, and holding. This is a live feature, not available on all phones. Next, watch active payment addresses and transfer retention; the risk is that although the gateway is large, actual usage may be insufficient.
Next, look at UNI. On October 29, Uniswap launched the TJAR on-chain fee conversion scheme, allowing apps to convert fees from different assets into designated tokens. This is an infrastructure tool and does not mean automatic UNI dividends. We need to observe actual integration numbers, fees, and protocol value capture; the risk is slow developer adoption and that transaction growth may not benefit token holders.
Finally, look at LINK. On October 29, Chainlink and Hanwha Investment & Securities officially announced cooperation, with the latter choosing its data standards and CCIP to support the RWA platform. The partnership is confirmed, but specific asset issuance and revenue still need verification. Focus on launched assets, cross-chain messages, and fees, and beware of institutional narratives prematurely overpromising expectations.
These three routes respectively compete for payments, transactions, and institutional assets. Which do you think will generate sustainable revenue first?
#SOL #UNI #LINK
Not investment advice$BMNR
I see this sharp drop in BMNR, but let's not rush to interpret it as a problem with Ethereum treasury logic. Jinse News reported that it fell 10.7% in 24 hours, which is just the stock price performance, not evidence of changes in the company's coin holdings.
OKX's BMNR perpetual contract is currently at $19.13, opening at 21.51 and hitting a low of 18.50 in 24 hours; the position size is about $3.5 million, with a fee rate of 0.0124%, and longs are still paying. The drop and fee rate are both significant, but the position pool is small, and a few trades could distort the reading, so don't take it as the consensus of the entire market yet.
The fee rate is slightly positive in the small pool, but the price is clearly below the opening. The narrative of the company buying coins and the token market are not aligned; we still need to see the details of its disclosed holdings and whether the spot market follows.
#美股遭大幅抛售：费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅 The NEAR flush did not happen. Longs are still paying.
NEAR -5.46% on $20.9M spot, yet $48.4M perp OI - 2.3 times the tape - funding positive. That means spot-led, not a leverage unwind. UNI -4.81%, WLD -5.60%.
Before the open I am staying out. One number: $48.4M OI. I flip if it drops under $42M.
Full book, no bottom.
Wait for the flush, or front-run it?
Crypto is high-risk. Personal observation only, not investment advice. DYOR.
$NEAR $UNI $WLD
#NEAR #OKXOrbit #Crypto #Altcoins This long position was entered at 52.87, capturing the impulsive surge driven by the market's absorption and strengthening after a dip, along with short covering. The actual gain is about 4.62%, magnified 25x to over 115% profit, which is a volatility realization and not suitable to hold as the main trend's primary rise.
The area around 55.3–55.8 is a dense short-term resistance zone. Stocks like $INTC don't have the explosive volatility of altcoins, but a 25x leverage pullback can still hurt. If it breaks below 54.6, unrealized profits will shrink rapidly.
It is recommended to take a large portion of profits to secure principal, and move the stop loss of the remaining position to 54.0–54.3 as a risk-free anchor; do not chase the tail end of the rally, wait for a pullback near 54.5 to see if there is support. Exiting a position always takes priority over new targets. $BTC $ETH #IREN加速转型AI云，业务收入环比增长182% 🚨 The crypto market's battle between bulls and bears is intensifying! After reviewing this position data, it really makes you sweat!
First, look at $ETH, the situation is quite severe. In just 4 hours, about $150 million worth of positions were liquidated, and the total market liquidation amount reached $870 million, with both bulls and bears undergoing a brutal shakeout.
The funding situation is also not optimistic:
ETFs have seen net outflows for 7 consecutive days.
According to statistics, BlackRock also sold about $100 million in assets.
On-chain USDT holdings dropped by 14.35%, but leverage rose to 0.79.
Funds are starting to shift to Tron’s low-fee channel, with on-chain USDT on Tron surpassing $25 billion, hitting a new high.
Looking at $BTC, the price has fallen back to around $76,000. Trump's media is reportedly almost fully liquidating the previously held 4,259 BTC, a move worth close attention.
$SOL is also facing continuous troubles:
Loanscale was attacked, and the platform suspended related services.
DEX weekly trading volume has shrunk significantly, nearly halving.
Disputes have arisen between co-founder Toly and the foundation.
Famous trader Ansem has even opened a 20x leverage short position.
📉 What about the mid-term market outlook?
Currently, the three major mainstream assets BTC, ETH, and SOL are all facing varying degrees of pressure. Coupled with a sharp sell-off in the US tech sector, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index recorded its largest single-day drop since March 2020, increasing overall risk $BTC
Strive made a book profit of $509 million this quarter, but its main revenue was only $2.696 million. This contrast is more telling than the phrase "company making big profits."
In Q3, the company bought 8,136 BTC at an average price of $78,885; by the end of September, it held a total of 28,000 BTC, which looks much better on the books than at the start of the year. However, the net profit mainly comes from $534 million in unrealized gains, not operating cash flow; the profit on the financial statements is not the same as the cash available for operations.
OKX currently has BTC spot around $75,988, with a 24-hour low of $75,200; perpetual positions are about $2.645 billion, with a funding rate of 0.007%. I don't treat the corporate treasury as a bottom-line guarantee; the price is still near the intraday low, so first let's see if the spot market has real buyers.
#美股遭大幅抛售：费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅 Overall View of the U.S. Stock Market Q3 Earnings
The 2026 U.S. stock market Q3 earnings season shows a pattern of structural divergence, strong earnings, and weak growth. Overall corporate profits remain at a high growth level, with most companies' revenues and profits exceeding market expectations. U.S. stock market profits have maintained high double-digit growth for three consecutive quarters, indicating strong market fundamentals.
The biggest feature of this earnings season is the clear rotation of hotspots. Growth of traditional tech giants is slowing, AI sector growth is declining, and capital is gradually shifting from high-valued tech stocks to consumer, pharmaceutical, and cyclical sectors. Among them, biotechnology performed outstandingly; Moderna's Q3 revenue surged 29% year-over-year, successfully turning a profit. The new mRNA vaccine has secured overseas orders, and the company raised its full-year earnings guidance, driving a significant rebound in its stock price.
Overall, the U.S. stock market's bull market earnings support remains, but the growth acceleration cycle has basically ended, and most companies' Q4 earnings guidance is cautious. The market no longer blindly chases high-tech leaders but places more emphasis on real cash flow, secured orders, and cost control. At this stage, the U.S. stock market has entered a report-driven volatile phase, where the strong get stronger and weak stocks continue to fall. From an operational perspective, it is more suitable for swing trading rather than blindly loading up to chase gains. #美股遭大幅抛售：费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅 Atlassian's earnings beat expectations but the stock dropped about 15%, so don't catch the falling knife pre-market.
Here's what I see: Q1 revenue was $1.772 billion, up 24% year-over-year, and adjusted EPS was 1.65, both beating consensus estimates.
However, the full-year revenue growth guidance is only about 13.75%, and subscription ARR growth guidance is about 18.5%, noticeably slowing from the 23% in the quarter.
Nasdaq is around 155 pre-market, down about 15% from yesterday's close of 183.29; OKX perpetual is around 154, with an intraday low near 147.
My take: This is a typical case of "numbers beat but growth story cut"; the market just crashed, so catching the falling knife is even more dangerous.
What I'll do: Watch and don't catch. First, see if it can hold above 150 after open and recover 160; if it breaks the intraday low near 147, this observation fails.
Are you more worried about continued selling at open, or do you think the guidance is already fully priced in?
$TEAM $CRM $MSFT
#美股遭大幅抛售：费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅 #非农今晚揭晓，美股大跌后市场如何押注12月加息？$SNDK The US stock market is crashing, and those who rush in first to bottom-fish often die the fastest!!!
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Brothers, don’t mistake a crash for a discount, and don’t think bottom-fishing is a skill! SanDisk fell from 1300 to 800; you might think a 500 drop is cheap enough, but the market might still want it to fall to 600; Intel dropped from 300 to 50, you think you found gold, but you might have just caught a falling knife that’s still dropping. A big drop doesn’t mean it’s hit bottom; a large decline doesn’t mean the valuation is reasonable. Behind the stock price could be a reversal in earnings expectations, continuous capital withdrawal, or changes in industry logic. A truly mature trader isn’t excited by a big drop but first judges whether the decline has ended. Without a stop signal, capital inflow, or trend reversal, so-called bottom-fishing is just gambling on luck. The market never lacks cheap things; it lacks confirmation signals of a reversal!
If you bottom-fish correctly, it’s called insight; if you get it wrong, you’re just taking the bag. Don’t use your own capital to prove the market has fallen enough!
$BTC #美股遭大幅抛售：费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅 $SNDK
Previously, our post also mentioned a profit-loss ratio issue, specifically in the storage sector, where the goal is to pull the highest multiples in the shortest time. In one year, the US stock market surged 100 times, unprecedented and unlikely to be repeated, so I have been shorting because the profit-loss ratio is stronger. So far, this approach seems correct.
Last night, when I was free, I also browsed the Orbit; basically, everyone was bottom-fishing storage stocks, meaning the price is cheap enough, but very few truly understand the US stock market and some broader environmental factors. The Democratic Party won, the market reversed and rose, then consolidated sideways all day, and by this morning's close, it recorded a historic -6.89% drop.
So will it fall further? Personally, just my personal opinion, I think it will continue to fall until mid-month. How will it fall? It will rise a bit then fall a bit, so you won't feel it's a big drop. It won't be a big rebound either; it will just be torturous. #DailyOrbit #美股遭大幅抛售：费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅 AI Data center regulatory concerns are the most direct trigger. Many chip stocks' valuations are based on the assumption of "continuous rapid expansion of data centers." Once the market starts pricing in approval slowdowns, energy consumption limits, and environmental constraints, the AI computing power chain will be the first to have its valuation cut.
Storage chips have fallen especially hard, for example, SanDisk dropped over 22%, Micron and Western Digital fell about 17%, because storage is most sensitive to data center expansion and had high gains and volatility earlier.
Asian semiconductors on the A-share market are also under pressure simultaneously: South Korea's KOSPI once fell over 8% intraday triggering a circuit breaker, Nikkei dropped over 6%, with SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, SoftBank, and others falling sharply.
On the A-share side, on November 6, the ChiNext Index fell 3.96%, with communications, electronics, CPO, optical modules, semiconductor equipment, and related sectors leading the declines, but the Shanghai Composite's drop was relatively smaller, indicating more of an overseas AI hardware chain sentiment shock rather than a synchronized collapse of all assets.
The key things to watch next are:
Whether the US AI/data center regulatory proposals will really be implemented and how strong they will be;
Whether cloud providers will lower their subsequent capital expenditure guidance;
Whether orders and prices for storage, optical modules, and computing hardware show substantial weakening.
If the follow-up is just sentiment and leverage sell-offs, recovery may be quicker; if capital expenditure growth is truly suppressed by policy, the AI hardware chain's valuation system may enter a more stringent repricing period.The Philadelphia Semiconductor just crashed last night, and today the South Korean stock market plunged directly, triggering a circuit breaker.
As a result, the South Korean Ministry of Finance hurriedly convened experts for a meeting and concluded: don't panic, AI demand has not shrunk, and the medium to long term outlook remains optimistic.
To be honest, the market is not trading on "fundamentals" right now, but on "panic sentiment."
When US tech stocks crash, global capital rushes to escape; who still cares about the medium to long term need for AI chips? This is a typical case of "short-term capital violently beating long-term fundamentals."
Looking at our crypto circle, these days Bitcoin has been dragged down along with US stocks, the same principle applies. When the macro environment tightens, capital runs faster than anyone else.
The South Korean official statement is just a psychological comfort in the short term. If you really want to bottom-fish tech stocks or Bitcoin, don't pay attention to what the news says; watch for when capital outflows stop.
$#美股遭大幅抛售：费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅 When big players pour money into prediction markets, I first ask: are they changing the odds, or can even the settlement price linked to the coin move? Ordinary trading focuses on price ups and downs, but here you also have to see how the question is judged. Thinking the other way around, if betting on Bitcoin to close higher one day, buying more "will rise" doesn't necessarily mean Bitcoin is truly being pushed up. The odds skewing might just mean there's more money on that side, not necessarily more accurate information. If the question targets a small coin with very thin liquidity, I get a bit suspicious— is this person guessing the outcome, or preparing to create the outcome themselves?#美股遭大幅抛售：费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅 The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged sharply, signaling a concentrated valuation sell-off in the AI computing power sector. On one hand, tonight's stronger-than-expected nonfarm payrolls have led the market to reprice the Federal Reserve maintaining high interest rates for longer. High-valuation tech and semiconductor stocks are most sensitive to interest rates, prompting capital to exit early. Coupled with the recent U.S. midterm elections, the market worries that the Democratic Party will tighten regulations on computing power and chips, suppressing long-term demand expectations for HBM and data centers.
South Korean semiconductor stocks also fell sharply in tandem, with Samsung and SK Hynix weakening, further dragging down global memory and chip sentiment. This sector had seen huge gains previously, accumulating a large amount of profit-taking positions. Once expectations reverse, stop-loss orders flood out, amplifying the decline. The market is beginning to doubt the sustainability of AI capital expenditures and no longer blindly assigns high premiums to the computing power chain.
In the short term, this is a double hit of sentiment and valuation, but it does not mean the semiconductor cycle is completely over. The follow-up depends on the nonfarm payroll results; if employment data cools and yields fall, the sector has a chance to recover; if employment remains resilient beyond expectations, the adjustment may continue. Meanwhile, keep tracking HBM prices and capital expenditure guidance from overseas major manufacturers. $BTC $ETH $SNDK Yesterday, I decisively closed my $BTC long position near $80,400. Looking back now, this move indeed avoided a major pullback!
At that time, BTC rebounded strongly from $76,000, breaking through $81,000 with strong momentum. Market sentiment clearly warmed up, and many were expecting a new round of rally. Who would have thought the market would suddenly turn, with a big bearish candle pushing the price back down near $76,000.
For me, the most fortunate thing this time was not selling at a very high price, but securing profits in time.
After trading for so many years, I understand one truth more and more: making a profit is just the first step; the real skill is turning paper profits into your own money.
This round of decline is not just a simple technical correction.
The US midterm election results changed market expectations on crypto regulation and AI industry policies. The US tech sector then faced sell-offs, AI hype cooled down, and risk assets overall came under pressure. Coupled with the recent Binance security incident causing market panic, over $1 billion in crypto derivatives liquidations occurred in the past 24 hours, and bulls suffered heavy losses again.
Next, I will temporarily choose to wait and watch, not rushing to bottom-fish.
📍 Key levels to watch closely:
$75,500: First short-term defense level.
$74,780: Next important support area.
$78,000: Only if the price stabilizes here again should we reassess the strength of the rebound.
If support holds, the market might still gather strength for another push.$ESNT
In mortgage insurance business, is it more important to watch premiums or losses?
Essent Group appears on the November 6 earnings calendar. The scale of premiums reflects the business base, but unemployment, home prices, and delinquencies will affect future claims. Current profits may not yet fully reflect changes in the credit cycle.
If new delinquencies and claims remain manageable and capital buffers stay stable, the defensive capability is stronger; if employment weakens accompanied by rising delinquencies, I would raise my expectations for future losses. #Báo cáo tài chính Q3 của Moderna sẽ tiết lộ xu hướng doanh số vaccine 💉 MODERNA Q3 2026: VACCINE HỒI SINH – MRNA BÙNG NỔ? 🚀 Moderna vừa công bố kết quả Q3 vượt kỳ vọng thị trường! 📊 SỐ LIỆU ĐÁNG CHÚ Ý: • Doanh thu: 1,31 tỷ USD (+29% YoY) • Lợi nhuận ròng: 162 triệu USD, đảo chiều từ khoản lỗ 200 triệu USD. • EPS: 0,38 USD/cổ phiếu. • Nâng dự báo tăng trưởng doanh thu 2026 lên 15–25%, từ mức tối đa 10% trước đó. • Tiền mặt & đầu tư: 8 tỷ USD. 🔥 3 ĐỘNG LỰC TĂNG TRƯỞNG: 1️⃣ Vaccine COVID: doaLook at this xSKHY chart. The price sits at 129.70 dollars showing a 6.99 percent bounce today. Looking at old trends, past drops saw the price fall from 182.80 down toward 120.50 before finding support. Much like previous major up and down cycles in October and early November, high volume spikes often signal a rebound after steep selling. My best prediction is that the price will stabilize near support and test the 140 to 145 moving average resistance level next. What do you think will happen $BTC has pulled back from a high level, fluctuating around 75,900. Can the bulls make a comeback?
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BTC current price is 75,914.6, almost flat intraday with a slight drop of 0.11%. It has fallen steadily from the high of 87,374.3, with a nearly 9% decline over 30 days. The MA5, MA10, and MA20 moving averages are all pressing down from above, showing clear resistance.
The previous surge had fully boosted market sentiment, with many hoping to break through 90,000 and 100,000 thresholds. However, the bulls lacked momentum afterward, and selling pressure kept coming. Now, after dropping to around 75,000, it has briefly stabilized, entering a tug-of-war between bulls and bears.
There is support below, but the rebound strength is weak. Multiple attempts to move upward have failed to break through the resistance of the moving averages above. This position is the most frustrating: those bullish see this as a pullback to gather strength, waiting for a new rally; those bearish view the rebound as a selling opportunity, expecting deeper corrections ahead.
BTC is the barometer of the entire crypto market. Without BTC choosing a direction, altcoins and other major coins find it difficult to develop independent trends. Currently, the market sentiment is cautious, and funds are hesitant to enter aggressively.
If the support near 75,000 holds, there is a chance to challenge previous highs again; once this level is broken, the downside space will open up.
Everyone is waiting for a clear signal from BTC now. Do you think the BTC pullback is over and ready to counterattack, or is the correction not yet complete? #美国新旧国会交接或影响美伊局势 $BTC half an hour before the US non-farm payrolls, Binance spot stuck around 75,930, then surged to 76,290 at 4 PM and pulled back again, down about 4.6% in 24h, with highs and lows at 79,865 / 75,208; $ETH around 2,239, down about 6.2% in 24h.
Volume clearly shrank: the total BTC trading volume over the last 3 hourly candles is about 75 million USDT, roughly half of the previous 3 hours. OKX perpetual BTC open interest is about 2.65 billion USD, funding rate slightly positive (around 0.0069%), ETH funding rate is slightly negative.
The Fear & Greed Index remains at 28. In about twenty minutes, the US non-farm payrolls will be released, with market expectations of around 60,000 new jobs. My view is that volume leads, price moves sideways, and the non-farm data will decide whether to break below the 75,000 level again. No need to rush now.
$BTC $ETH$ETH #AAOIQ3RevenueUp128% 4H MARKET SETUP
Current Price: 2,236.87
ETH is showing limited price movement. Neither buyers nor sellers have established a convincing directional advantage.
SHORT: 1H bearish structure shift with a confirmed 4H support breakdown.
LONG: Bullish 1H CHoCH followed by a successful 4H resistance reclaim.
Wait for a clear market structure shift.Nonfarm payrolls are coming tonight! How much further can BTC drop? Do the bulls still have a chance to turn things around? 🔥
Recently, as the US stock market fell, market sentiment also panicked. Large funds behind the scenes have clearly started to be cautious, and holding Bitcoin is no longer attractive, with selling pressure increasing. BTC keeps dropping, and ETH is also under pressure.
So the question is, after the nonfarm data is released tonight, will BTC continue to crash down, or can it use the data to trigger a rebound?
This week is already in its final days, and tonight is also the last trading day for US stocks this week. For the bulls, what they most hope to see now is BTC holding above $75,000 and ETH holding above $2,200, without breaking down further. If these two levels can't hold, the pressure ahead will only increase.
Looking at the current market, the rebound strength is indeed weak. News of Trump selling has added fuel to the fire, spreading panic further, and the willingness of funds to enter and catch the dip is clearly insufficient. The hourly chart keeps declining, with each rebound peak lower than the last, so short-term bears still have the advantage.
The bottom isn't confirmed just by falling; at least for now, no clear stop signal has appeared. Rather than rushing to catch a falling knife, it's better to wait for a rebound opportunity and try short positions lightly in the short term for a better risk-reward ratio.
#非农今晚揭晓，美股大跌后市场如何押注12月加息？ This long position was entered at 184.9, capturing the short-term rally after the order book showed strong support, not waiting for daily confirmation to act. At 189.68, the unrealized profit is 129.25%. Using 50x leverage amplifies the approximately 2.58% gain into a doubled return, which is a typical volatility realization.
$NVDA is a major stock; near the 190 round number, there tends to be quantitative selling pressure and profit-taking. With 50x leverage, a false breakout and pullback can quickly wipe out unrealized gains. @大勇干短线（互动）
It is recommended to take a large portion of profits to secure principal, and move the stop loss on the remaining position to 187.5–188.2 as a risk-free anchor; do not chase the late-stage rally, wait for a pullback near 187 to identify support again. The exit strategy is more important than new targets. $BTC $ETH #IREN加速转型AI云，业务收入环比增长182% $SNDK | 4H MARKET SETUP
Current Price: 890.4
SNDK is showing strong upside momentum with a 9.72% gain. After a sharp move, price stability and a confirmed structural breakout become important.
SHORT: Failed breakout followed by bearish 1H CHoCH and 4H support breakdown.
LONG: Bullish 1H BOS followed by a successful 4H resistance retest.
Avoid entering after an extended rally without confirmation.Altcoins may be approaching the final stage of their correction.
$ARB is showing the first signs of a breakout.
After briefly sweeping below its recent low against BTC, it recovered quickly.
The structure is turning bullish, and momentum appears to be shifting.
A potential 20–30% upside move could be next for $ARB.
#AAOIQ3RevenueUp128% $ZEC | 4H MARKET SETUP
Current Price: 1,312.71
ZEC is showing positive momentum with a 2.49% gain. Buyers need to maintain bullish structure to support further continuation.
SHORT: Bearish 1H CHoCH followed by a confirmed 4H support breakdown.
LONG: Bullish 1H BOS followed by a successful 4H resistance retest.
Watch for sustained buying pressure.$ZEC | 4H MARKET SETUP
Current Price: 1,312.71
ZEC is showing positive momentum with a 2.49% gain. Buyers need to maintain bullish structure to support further continuation.
SHORT: Bearish 1H CHoCH followed by a confirmed 4H support breakdown.
LONG: Bullish 1H BOS followed by a successful 4H resistance retest.
Watch for sustained buying pressure.For medium to long-term investors:
The defense at $75,000 is the most valuable information in the current structure. Despite experiencing 240,000 liquidations and $1.2 billion in deleveraging, Bitcoin has not broken below the low set in September and closed above the 50-week moving average; the head of Galaxy Research clearly pointed out that while US and Asian stocks broke key supports, Bitcoin showed remarkable resilience. This means the current crash is driven by liquidity squeeze caused by margin calls in US stocks, rather than deterioration in crypto fundamentals.
Right-side signal: It is necessary to see IBIT outflows narrow to the tens of millions level, FBTC stop dumping, and price **volume-supported hold at the $75,000 defense level, which is structurally more significant than any short-term rebound magnitude. $BTC $ETH $SNDK #韩股KOSPI暴跌触发熔断，半导体集体重挫 #非农今晚揭晓，美股大跌后市场如何押注12月加息？ Tonight at 21:30, the non-farm payrolls report will be released, the first major employment data after the election. For long-duration growth stocks like storage and semiconductors, the core focus is not on employment quality but on U.S. Treasury yields.
Three scenarios to clarify simply:
✅ Data is hot: employment exceeds expectations, wages remain strong → rate hike expectations rise, U.S. Treasury yields go up, Nasdaq, SanDisk, Micron under pressure, high-valuation growth stocks face valuation cuts;
➡️ Neutral as expected: 50,000-80,000 range, market fluctuates, funds will refocus on post-election industrial policies and NAND supply-demand cycle, no extra disturbance on the interest rate side;
❌ Data is weak: employment weakens, rate hike expectations cool down, yields decline, creating a sentiment rebound window for the storage sector.
But one key point to remember: non-farm payrolls are only a short-term disturbance and cannot change the big NAND price increase cycle.
Even if weak data causes a rebound, don’t treat it as a trend reversal; even if hot data causes a sell-off, the long-term logic of supply contraction remains.
Also, a pitfall to avoid: if employment collapses sharply, the market will trade recession, demand panic will outweigh rate hike benefits, and storage will still be under pressure.
Trading reminder: liquidity is poor and false breakouts are common right after the non-farm release, don’t rush to act on the first candlestick, wait 15-30 minutes for pricing to stabilize before observing.
Risk warning: this is only a scenario analysis and does not constitute investment advice.*Not every surge is an opportunity; sometimes it's just a trap!*
The Meme market is heating up again, but the logic behind the rises of $ARB, $PEPE, and $DOOD is completely different—don't chase blindly!
*🔹 $ARB – Supply shock is imminent*
The community has passed a staking proposal, locking *100 million ARB tokens* in staking, directly reducing circulating supply! The positive news is real, but don't blindly chase the price; wait for price confirmation.
*🔹 $PEPE – The hype is back*
Rumors that Justin Sun holds a large amount of PEPE + technical rebound have instantly ignited sentiment! Remember: the faster the hype pumps, the faster it can crash.
*🔹 $DOOD – Riding the NFT wave*
With NFT hype rising, Doodles benefit from brand dividends. But without stronger fundamentals, this wave is just a high-volatility gamble!
*In short:* ARB depends on supply, PEPE depends on sentiment, DOOD depends on hype. Before chasing the rise, ask yourself: are you chasing logic or FOMO?
$ARB $PEPE $DOODI've always been puzzled: Bitcoin halves every four years, so why is the mining output dropping even without a halving? Looking at BitFuFu's data for October, it becomes clear—they mined 137 coins this month, 18% less than in September, because the overall network difficulty increased by 11.8%. Halving is a rule that cuts the reward sharply, while difficulty rises because more machines compete for the same reward. Both reduce output, but only the halving gets attention. So mining companies now compete not by having more machines, but by cheaper electricity and newer machines—they've improved energy efficiency from 16.7 to 16.3 J/TH for this reason. They still hold 1,454 $BTC, which looks better than just the production numbers. On the $ETH side, staking rewards are also thinning out; the whole industry is tightening its belt.Tonight at 21:30 Beijing time, the U.S. Department of Labor will release October's nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings data. Key indicators to watch tonight Market expectations Previous values Nonfarm payrolls increase About 65,000 29,000 Unemployment rate 4.2% 4.2% Average hourly earnings monthly rate 0.3% 0.1% Transmission logic to the crypto space Currently, the crypto market is more sensitive in the short term to USD liquidity, interest rate expectations, and risk asset sentiment rather than a single political event. - If data is strong: new jobs significantly exceed expectations, or wage growth accelerates → USD and U.S. Treasury yields may rise, rate hike expectations heat up → Bitcoin and Ethereum face short-term pressure. - If data is weak: new jobs fall short of expectations, but unemployment rate does not spiral → rate hike pressure eases, risk assets may rebound → generally positive for crypto. - If data is very weak: employment significantly below expectations accompanied by rising unemployment → market may shift from "rate cut expectations" to "recession concerns," short-term may not directly benefit, possibly increased volatility first. - If data is close to expectations: market may initially fluctuate up and down, then continue to watch U.S. stocks, USD, and ETF fund flows. Order to watch tonight 1. 21:30 Nonfarm payrolls + unemployment rate + hourly earnings: hourly earnings are also critical; strong wages amplify rate hike expectations. 2. 22:10 Fed's Mussailem speech: may influence rate expectations. Unexpectedly, the first person to be "named and summoned" by Congress is Jensen Huang. The chairmen of three committees in the U.S. House of Representatives jointly sent a letter to the Nvidia boss, inviting him to attend a closed-door hearing in Congress — quite a big deal, with an invitation as solid as a graphics card heatsink.
The core task is: to ask Mr. Huang to clarify his relationship with Alice Huang. The reason is quite dramatic: this female boss, whom he had previously been in close contact with, has been identified by intelligence agencies as a "beauty spy." Wow, the plot accelerates, turning from a press conference straight into a Washington thriller.The top three gainers today are all ruthless bull traps that leave nothing behind. Currently, macro high interest rates are tightly suppressing the market, non-farm payrolls are about to disappoint, and there’s not a drop of fresh capital outside the market. At this moment, any pump is pure money giveaway.
First, look at $AKE AKE, which surged 94 points today—a typical pump-and-dump by a capital pool. The 15-minute chart shows a spike followed by a clear volume contraction and sideways movement; the manipulative whales are controlling the market heavily. As soon as a little capital enters, they immediately spike the price up and down to liquidate high-leverage positions violently. This is brutal liquidation. In this situation, only low leverage should be used, or better yet, avoid it altogether. High leverage in such a market is just handing your head to the market makers; never hold a position.
Next, look at $ONE ONE, this stagnant pump coin. It rose nearly 40 points today, an old, worn-out L1 with no ecosystem or capital foundation—just short-term speculators emptying each other’s pockets. Such pump coins are designed to trap fools chasing highs. Don’t be tempted by the red bars; if you touch it, you won’t even get the bones left. Whoever buys it dies.
Finally, look at $AEON AEON, which rose 18 points. Although the 15-minute chart shows a steady push up, the MACD red bars are shortening, indicating obvious high-level stagnation. This is a sign of a pump to distribute chips, with heavy trapped positions above. Charging in now likely means becoming the bag holder for the whales lying in wait. Once it crashes, you won’t even get a chance to escape.
In summary, the current altcoin market is like looking for food in a meat grinder; all the capital inside is just mutual cutting. Don’t gamble with high leverage on these bottomless pump coins. Surviving with low leverage is better than anything.It is said that about $1.1 billion flowed out of ETFs in the past 7 days. Let's first look at how the latest complete trading day breaks down. On the latest complete trading day for Farside, the total was −430.2, and not a single spot Bitcoin ETF recorded inflows that day.
At first, I also thought only IBIT was withdrawing. After reviewing the full table, FBTC and ARKB also had outflows; all ETFs with numbers showed negative values, truly no inflows across the board.
The previous trading day still had a positive total; the inflows were mainly due to IBIT outflows and FBTC inflows offsetting each other. Today's data is not yet available.
Last Wednesday, I said I didn't see new money stepping in and didn't believe everyone was running away. I was wrong to say FBTC and ARKB both had net outflows on the same day. On the latest complete day, these two both had outflows, so I admit I was wrong there. On a zero-inflow day, don't combine weekly totals with single-day figures.
Next time if at least one spot Bitcoin ETF records net inflows on a complete trading day, I'll come back and admit that I was too absolute about zero inflows in this post. #比特币承压，ETF近7日净流出约11亿美元 When the “Blue Wave” Collides with AI Faith: The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index's Biggest Drop in Six Years — Liquidation or Misjudgment?
On November 5, the U.S. stock market hit the pause button on the narrative of the “AI perpetual motion machine” with an almost vertical plunge. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 12.25% in a single day, closing at 9,011.14 points, marking its largest one-day drop since the pandemic panic on March 16, 2020, and ranking second in the historical drop list since the index was established in 1993. None of the 30 component stocks were spared: SanDisk fell 22.26%, Micron and Western Digital dropped over 17%, AMD declined 17.26%, Nvidia plunged 9.26%, wiping out nearly $450 billion in market value in one day, with the stock officially entering a technical bear market. The Nasdaq Composite Index plunged 5.52%, retreating more than 10% from last month's high into correction territory, while the S&P 500 lost about $2.9 trillion in market value in a single day. The fear index VIX surged 70% at one point, with traders describing the day’s market as a “meat grinder.”
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index’s largest one-day drop in six years and seven months is less a declaration of the end of the AI narrative and more a long-overdue stress test: as politics begins to set boundaries for technological expansion, the market must learn to reprice the true value of every chip between the old dream of “unlimited computing power” and the new normal of “constrained growth.”
What do you think about the upcoming nonfarm payroll data?
I think it will open low and then rise.
#美股遭大幅抛售：费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅 A monthly report from a listed mining company lays out the mining situation in Q4. BitFuFu produced 137 BTC in October, about 18% less than in September; during the same period, the overall network mining difficulty rose by about 11.8%. The drop in output is not due to machine failure, but because the same computing power is earning fewer coins in a more difficult network.
Breaking down the structure: of the 137 BTC, 70 came from cloud mining and 67 from self-operated mining, averaging 4.4 BTC per day, almost evenly split between the two. The total managed computing power is 19.5 EH/s, with only 3.7 EH/s owned directly; the other 15.8 EH/s comes from third-party suppliers and hosted clients. The computing power they manage is more than five times what they own, essentially making them a computing power operator rather than a heavy-asset miner.
Efficiency is actually improving: the average energy efficiency of mining machines dropped from 16.7 J/TH in September to 16.3 J/TH, with a power capacity of 317 MW. Getting more computing power for the same electricity cost is one of the few proactive moves possible during a difficulty increase cycle.
More noteworthy is the inventory. As of October 31, they held 1,454 BTC, a 4.8% month-over-month increase. Output is falling, but inventory is rising, meaning not all mined coins are being sold. For $BTC, this signals a temporary lack of selling pressure from miners.
Don’t read a single monthly report as a trend. If the next difficulty jump comes, the machines at 16.3 J/TH will be under pressure. What really needs watching is when the 1,454 BTC inventory stops growing. Holders of $ETH and $SOL face the same issue: output is shrinking, but is the narrative still intact?AI regulation is starting to tighten, and I am prepared to continue being bearish on the three storage giants!
This time, the signal released by the US Democratic Party deserves attention: next year they may push for AI regulatory legislation, focusing on data center expansion, AI model review, and tech company responsibilities.
What does this mean? The AI industry has relied heavily on the continuous expansion of data centers, and once data center construction slows down, the demand for GPUs, HBM, and storage chips is expected to be affected.
Yesterday, the US stock market already reacted: SanDisk plunged more than 20%, Micron dropped over 17%, and SK Hynix also saw a significant pullback. Although there was a rebound in pre-market trading today, I think it's still too early to bottom-fish.
Currently, Yan Yan is focusing on three targets:
SNDK (SanDisk): target 820
SK HYNIX: target 800
MU (Micron): target 660
My approach is: do not blindly chase shorts; prioritize waiting for a weak rebound and resistance pressure before considering short positions.
Of course, AI demand has not disappeared; what really needs reassessment is the growth rate of future data center investments. If regulatory news continues to ferment, the storage sector may still undergo another round of valuation adjustments.
Do you think this is short-term panic, or is the AI storage market truly starting to cool down?
#美股遭大幅抛售：费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅 $ETH has been in a correction since September 22, lasting 38 days with a maximum drop of over 22.5%. Has the correction ended? Where is the target for the next upward move?
Key support: Green Gann 2/1 (2290)
As long as this line is not broken again, this correction is very likely to have bottomed out and ended by October 30.
Short-term resistance: Red Gann 2/1 (2450)
This line is drawn from the high and low points of 2807 and 2174. Last night, the price hit this level and was rejected, representing the current minor strong resistance.
A valid breakout above 2450 and a new high above 2470 are needed for the bullish structure to be considered stable;
If it repeatedly fails to break through, the risk remains: the rise from 2174 is just a rebound, and the correction period will be extended.
On the larger structure, it is basically certain that the decline starting at 2807 is a correction after an uptrend, not the start of a new bear market. As long as the 1897 bottom line holds this month, it will not evolve into a larger-scale decline.
Once this correction is confirmed to be officially over, a new weekly trend upward will begin:
First target: 3230
Second target: Green Gann 4/1 line in Figure 1, 3496 A friend asked me to move $ETH from the mainnet to layer two
Said the fees are cheaper over there
I didn’t rush after hearing that
First, I went through tutorials for several bridges
The more I looked, the deeper it seemed
Some pages looked exactly like the official site
Only one letter difference in the domain name
I stared carefully for a long time to avoid clicking wrong
The first time I bridged, I only dared to transfer a tiny amount
Double-checked the network and address several times
My palms were a bit sweaty during those few minutes of confirmation
Only relaxed after the funds arrived
Later, I tried another route with $USDC
The process was similar
But fees and waiting times were different
I took notes to compare
$ARB arrived faster
I still didn’t dare to transfer everything at once
Split it into two transactions
Kept some on the original chain
In case the bridge has issues, not everything gets stuck
Now whenever I cross chains
I always say start with a small amount
Then check the domain and contract address
Don’t mind the hassle
Bridges are convenient
But one wrong click can cause a big headache#美股遭大幅抛售：费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅
#美国新旧国会交接或影响美伊局势
#比特币承压，ETF近7日净流出约11亿美元 Looking at this Solana chart, the price is sitting around ninety dollars after a steady drop from one hundred sixteen dollars over the past month. Similar to past market cycles where major drops led to sharp bounces from support levels, this downward trend shows sellers slowing down near the eighty eight dollar low. If history repeats itself, we could see a strong recovery back toward one hundred dollars soon. What do you think will happen next week? #ModernaQ3 earnings report will reveal vaccine sales trends Why is it so strong? It's all thanks to overseas COVID-19 vaccines
Domestic sales in the U.S. reached 780 million, and the international market contributed 533 million. Growth mainly relies on overseas COVID-19 vaccine sales, along with long-term government orders from the UK, Canada, and Australia being delivered. Simply put, the COVID-19 vaccine overseas hasn't completely cooled off yet, and government orders are supporting the core business.
Full-year guidance significantly raised
The company raised its full-year 2026 revenue growth forecast from "up to 10%" directly to 15%-25%. Year-end cash guidance was also increased from 4.7-5.2 billion USD to 8.1-8.3 billion USD. With more cash on hand, short-term concerns about burning money can be greatly eased.
Market reaction
U.S. stocks jumped about 10% in pre-market trading. Keep in mind this stock has already risen more than 7 times this year, mainly driven by expectations for the cancer vaccine in collaboration with Merck. This earnings report adds another layer of support to the high valuation.
But there's a risk to mention
The norovirus vaccine's Phase 3 interim analysis did not meet early success criteria, and no new study cohorts will be added this quarter. The pipeline isn't all good news, so don't just blindly rush in based on revenue alone.Over $1.2 billion liquidated overnight, 238,600 traders wiped out, crypto market awash in blood.
BTC: Macro sentiment abruptly reverses
Bitcoin currently at $75,746, -0.23%. The Democratic Party's midterm election landslide victory sparked fears of tighter AI regulation, leading to a concentrated sell-off in US tech stocks. Bitcoin briefly broke below $76,000. ETF net outflows reached $430 million in a single day, with analysts warning "don’t rush to call a reversal."
ETH: Correlated decline, longs liquidated
ETH at $2,232.49, -0.76%. 24-hour liquidation volume hit $181.8 million, with longs accounting for $149.7 million. RSI fell back to 40, bearish momentum regained dominance. $2,204 is a key short-term support; a break below could lead to further downside.
SOL: Regulatory risk strikes
SOL at $89.86, -0.26%. Solana’s offline event in Shanghai was urgently halted by the central bank, which clearly stated it will investigate the involved parties. This incident adds extra pressure on SOL’s short-term sentiment; policy risk escalation should be closely watched.
Summary: Macro risk appetite contraction combined with regulatory uncertainty leaves the market in a fragile balance. $75,000 for BTC and $2,200 for ETH are short-term bull-bear dividing lines. Sanjin 11.6 Gold Evening Analysis
Today, gold opened high but continued to face pressure and fell back. The intraday high was 4106.98, the low dipped to 4035.86, and it is currently fluctuating around 4060. After the previous surge, bullish momentum has weakened, and the market has entered a high-level oscillation and correction phase, with intensified tug-of-war between bulls and bears.
Key Levels
Resistance: 4080-4095
Support: 4035-4020
Strategy Reference
If the rebound tests the 4080-4095 resistance zone and faces pressure, a further decline can be expected, with the initial target at 4035. If it breaks below effectively, look further down to 4020;
If the pullback holds the 4035 and 4020 support levels, there is a short-term chance for stabilization and rebound, then retesting resistance upwards.
Pay attention tonight to the impact of US employment-related data, which may increase volatility and cause repeated fluctuations. Strictly control position size and set stop losses. #Gold# $ZEC This spike made me stop watching the chart for a moment. A hard pull-up with no correction for three months—who exactly is footing the bill? I just saw an almost vertical daily candle; ZEC has been pushed up again. It's not a slow climb but a move against the trend inside a big bearish candle, looking more and more like someone wrote the script in advance. The poster is very emotional, calling it a pump-and-dump coin, pulled hard for three months without letting go. I understand the exhaustion from being repeatedly played, but beyond emotions, I want to see clearly what this wave is really trading. First, let's restore the facts: ZEC has been strengthening continuously for about three months, with almost no decent pullback, and even took advantage of a market crash window to break out against the trend and grab attention. This rhythm itself is very telling—it’s not following a risk appetite recovery but using panic to do an "event repricing." When others are forced to deleverage, it becomes one of the few assets still able to make moves, attracting short-term funds, momentum buyers, and passive attention flows all at once. From a derivatives perspective, I care more about the structure than the gains. No washout for three months means unrealized profit positions have piled up thickly; long positions and leverage are likely already high. Once funding rates turn positive or rise, the price is more easily pushed by a "squeeze" logic: shorts are forced to cover, covering pushes the price, which looks strong but is actually fragile. The weak point of this market is not fundamentals but positions—if new buying can't keep up, the pullback will be sharper than the rise. A bullish scenario also exists: if funding rates remain mild, positions are not extreme, and volume holds during pullbacks A single US data point was enough to strip the market of its rate-cut fantasy. When initial jobless claims landed on November 5, large holders rushed for the exits and the bulls offered almost no resistance. The selloff was swift, mechanical, and broad. But the session was only the appetizer; the nonfarm payrolls report the following evening is the real test. Once a downtrend takes hold, even the strongest hands struggle to reverse it. $BTC fell 5.80% to 75,635, a heavy candle that sliced throug#ModernaQ3财报将揭示疫苗销售趋势
1. COVID-19 Vaccine
After the pandemic dividend fades, the COVID-19 vaccine has become a seasonal chronic disease vaccine, no longer experiencing explosive sales.
Key points to watch: the vaccination penetration rate of the new mNEXSPIKE, pharmacy purchase volumes in the U.S., comparison of market share with Pfizer, and overseas government orders.
Risk factor: the continuous decline in public willingness to vaccinate is the biggest factor suppressing revenue.
2. RSV Vaccine mRESVIA
This is Moderna's first commercialized non-COVID vaccine, which has previously underperformed expectations in volume.
Focus on: penetration rate among the elderly, pricing, competition with rival products, and verifying whether mRNA technology can be replicated for other respiratory viruses.
3. Combination Vaccine mCOMBRIAX
A single shot that protects against both flu and COVID-19, this is the company's future core storyline. Watch orders, approval progress, and commercialization expectations to determine long-term valuation. $SNDK Did you see that? SanDisk looked like crap, it was smashed down to 793.7 in the early session, and now it’s been dragged up nearly 10 points. This is a classic "dead cat bounce"! Don’t get hyped just because of one big green candle, thinking the bottom is in and a reversal is coming—that’s pure nonsense.
Why the bounce? The previous waterfall drop was brutal, leveraged longs were wiped out early, now it’s purely short sellers taking profits and covering positions, plus a short-term panic-driven oversold rebound. Look at this chart, that orange box from 1100 to 1200 is packed with trapped souls from earlier losses, and the moving averages are all pressing down there—that’s a very strong resistance zone. This rebound barely touched that area at best, and trying to push higher? Nearly impossible.
I’m telling you straight, short-term dead cat bounce, but on the bigger scale—weekly and monthly charts—I’m absolutely bearish! The price increase logic has long been disproven, institutions are frantically retreating, and the tough days of destocking are still ahead. Once a strong cyclical sector turns down, even gods can’t save it. Don’t expect one or two green candles to flip the trend.
So, take my advice: this rebound is just a chance to lightly enter and grab some quick profit, then run. Just think of it as getting some blood back. Don’t get greedy and hold long-term. 1000-1100 is the ceiling; once it hits there, get out fast. Whoever gets greedy dies. The big cycle bearish trend hasn’t changed. Don’t throw your hard-earned money catching a falling knife halfway up the mountain—that’s pure stupidity.
#美股遭大幅抛售：费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅
⚠️Market observation only, not trading adviceTrump sold all Bitcoin? Don't believe it yet! My friend also liquidated following that!! Unbelievable! What a big fool!
I almost reposted it too, luckily I verified first!
The media made it sound terrifying: Trump Media cleared out all Bitcoin, liquidated 99.99%!
I checked the blockchain and documents: the transfer is real but selling out completely is false, the 99.9% figure is a misleading concept swap.
At 02:17 AM on November 5, the wallet marked by Arkham transferred 4,259 BTC to Crypto.com in two transactions, 2,140.03 BTC plus 2,119.31 BTC, worth $343.67 million. Only 1.3 BTC remained in the wallet.
The wallet's name: 2028 convertible bond collateral.
The company's June 30 document clearly states the collateral is 4,260.73 BTC. The 4,259 BTC transferred is the entire collateral.
The 99.99% cleared refers to this collateral wallet.
Emptying one drawer doesn't mean the whole house is emptied.
Transferring to an exchange doesn't mean selling.
Why did they transfer it?
The post said "coinciding with Democratic investigation"—I didn't check the timeline, just speculation.
In summary:
The coins were indeed transferred, $344 million, on November 5.
They cleared the collateral wallet, not everything, only about 30% was moved.
Watch: $BTC to see if it moves again before November 30; $DJT to see if Trump Media's stock price keeps falling; $ETH to see if it can hold above 2300 after tonight's nonfarm payrolls.