Orbit Post Sitemap
Liquidations tell you who was crowded 📊 Over $1B wiped out in this crash, mostly longs — and $BTC dominance climbed to 57.45% as money hid in BTC, not alts. When dominance rises into a selloff, alts bleed first. Support: $75,000. Resistance: $77,770. Are you rotating into BTC or hunting alts at the lows? 👇 #Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto#AAOIQ3 revenue increased by 128% year-over-year, hitting a new high for six consecutive quarters. The impact of this earnings report on the crypto market is bearish rather than bullish, due to the macro window in which the report was released:
The earnings report itself: revenue exceeded expectations, but forward guidance was entirely below expectations. AAOI's Q3 revenue was $269.9 million, slightly above the consensus of $268.1 million, but the Q4 revenue guidance midpoint of $402.5 million was significantly below analysts' expectations of $427.3 million; the company also warned that U.S. capacity expansion would be delayed due to power supply and other issues. The stock price fell about 10% in after-hours trading. This means that even though current demand for AI optical modules remains strong, the market is more focused on the signal of a marginal slowdown in future growth.
Simultaneous macro shock: AI regulatory panic triggered a synchronized crash in tech stocks and the crypto market. From November 5 to 6, after the U.S. midterm elections resulted in the Democrats controlling both houses of Congress, the market quickly priced in the risk of tighter AI data center regulation. The Nasdaq plunged more than 5% intraday, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 12% in a single day, Nvidia dropped 9%, and Micron fell over 17%. Panic sentiment rapidly transmitted across asset classes to the crypto market, with Bitcoin falling below $76,000, Ethereum dropping to around $2,200, and over $1 billion in leveraged positions across the network being liquidated. The crypto market's decline that day was directly characterized by market participants as "because Bitcoin is too much like AI stocks"—the trigger was not internal to crypto but rather the collapse of regulatory expectations for AI tech stocks.ETH weakened today following the broader market, mainly due to last night's sharp decline in U.S. tech stocks triggering risk-off sentiment, combined with a concentrated liquidation of long leverage positions, leading to a collective sell-off in the crypto market. ETH showed greater volatility, with a deeper drop than BTC.
Macro origin: Panic selling in U.S. tech stocks
Last night, the Nasdaq plunged 5.52%. The market is worried about tighter AI regulations and reduced capital expenditure on computing power, causing funds to withdraw from high-risk assets. The correlation between crypto and tech assets increased, directly triggering the crash.
Derivative chain liquidations amplify the downtrend
A large amount of long leverage had accumulated previously. Once the price broke key levels, it triggered a chain of forced liquidations. The network's long positions were liquidated en masse, intensifying selling pressure and accelerating the decline.
ETH's inherent attribute: higher volatility
ETH is a riskier asset and typically underperforms BTC during systemic risk-off events, experiencing larger pullbacks. This time, there was no negative news specific to Ethereum; the correction is systemic.
Capital aspect: ETF outflows, institutional risk aversion
Spot ETF funds flowed out, and institutional investors reduced their crypto exposure in the short term, resulting in a lack of buying support to sustain prices. SNDK unrealized profit is about $6.36 million, INTC about $4.03 million, SOXL about $2.33 million, MU about $2.25 million, with total unrealized profit exceeding $30 million — this is the account of a certain whale shorting US tech stocks in AI/semiconductor sectors.
Lookonchain monitoring: This address heavily shorts US stocks, especially those related to AI, semiconductors, and memory chips. Most positions are currently in profit, with total unrealized gains exceeding $30 million. At the time of writing, BTC≈75777, ETH≈2233.
I actually think: all the positions are profitable, more like a comprehensive short bet on the "cooling down of the AI narrative" rather than betting on a single chip stock.
Do you think this short position will continue to increase the total unrealized profit, or will it peak and retrace around $30 million? If you want to see the follow-up, please follow.
$MU $INTC $SOXL Micron at $710, are you bottom-fishing or catching the falling knife?
It dropped from 1255 to 656, down more than 40%. Taiwan factory shutdown, DRAM market share lost, semiconductor sector collectively collapsed—but just now, the perpetual contract bounced hard from 650 back to 710. Is this wave a deeply oversold rebound escape opportunity, or the last pump by manipulative traders before the AI memory narrative collapses?
First, look at the surface: bad news hit hard, but the price stopped falling.
On November 4-5, Micron plunged 17%, getting bloodied along with the Nasdaq. The $3-4.5 billion HBM factory in Taoyuan, Taiwan, halted construction due to labor disputes, DRAM share dropped from 26% to 21%, with Samsung and SK Hynix chasing behind.
But look at the market—after closing at 656 with a big bearish candle, it jumped pre-market straight to 710.
First point: a 40% drop is not a risk, it’s finally your chance.
From the all-time high of 1255 on June 25, it fell to 656 with almost no decent rebound in between. Halved in half a year, retail investors cut losses, institutions complained.
But have you calculated the valuation?
FY2026 revenue 133 billion, net profit 85 billion, gross margin 87%. After the drop, PE (TTM) is only 8-11x, even lower forward.
A company earning 85 billion annually, valued at 8x PE. Tell me this is a bubble?
Analysts’ target prices are generally above $1500, strong buy ratings unchanged. What fell was the stock price, not the business.
Second point: HBM sold out until 2027, yet you worry about one Taiwan factory?
That Taiwan factory won’t start production until 2028; the labor dispute stopped future capacity, current operations are normal. The market took a variable three years out and smashed a current quarter earning hundreds of billions.
This is emotional selling, not fundamental selling.
What’s the real fundamental? HBM capacity is basically sold out, strategic customer agreements locked until 2030, supply chain tightness expected to continue through 2027-2028. AI data center memory demand is not slowing, it’s fundamentally insufficient.
Worried about AI spending slowdown? Micron’s Q1 FY2027 guidance is revenue 61.5 billion ±1.5 billion, EPS 38.15 ±1. The company’s own guidance is much firmer than the market’s scary stories.
Third point: technically between 650-710, bulls and bears are arm wrestling.
Daily chart dropped over 40% from ATH, entered a clear downtrend channel, now it’s an oversold rebound after the second leg of the bear run.
Support: 650-670 recent lows + psychological level, 600 stronger
Resistance: 750-780 rebound highs + dense volume area, then 800-850 higher
RSI rebounded from oversold but no confirmed bottom reversal. Volume increase shows real selling pressure but also shows buyers stepping in.
The key is one thing: can it hold above 750? Hold above, rebound turns into reversal; fail, 650 will be tested again.
Bull vs bear, you decide:
Bulls:
Earning 85 billion annually, PE only 8-11x, valuation at historical lows
HBM capacity sold out, customer agreements locked to 2030
Analysts strong buy, target price far above current
650-670 support zone tested multiple times, oversold rebound started
AI memory long-term shortage logic intact
Bears:
Taiwan factory shutdown, capacity expansion uncertain
DRAM share dropped from 26% to 21%, real competitive pressure
Fed not cutting rates, possibly hiking, high-valuation tech stocks pressured
Mid-term downtrend channel intact, technicals still bearish
Beta as high as 2.4-3, it shakes three times when the market shakes once
Key levels
Resistance above: 750-780 → 800-850 → 1000
Support below: 680-700 → 650 → 600
Trading strategy
Short-term players:
Wait for pullback to 680-700 to stabilize, then enter lightly, stop loss below 650, target 750-780 to take half profits. If volume breaks below 650, don’t bottom-fish, watch or lightly short to test 600. Perpetual leverage no more than 5-10x, monitor funding rate and liquidation risk yourself.
Swing traders:
Build long positions gradually in 650-700 range, stop loss at 600 or channel lower edge. First target 800-900, second target 1000+. Add positions after holding 800 and breaking above downtrend channel upper edge.
Mid to long-term:
AI/HBM logic intact, 40% drop brings value. Dollar-cost average or accumulate in batches, target to revisit previous highs. Watch December earnings, Taiwan labor progress, memory spot prices, Fed decisions. Fundamentals have your back, but don’t expect 1255 tomorrow.
Micron now is like semiconductors at the end of 2022—
99% think “AI spending will collapse, memory cycle peaked,” but once HBM shortage hits, the stock price flipped several times from the bottom.
$BTC $ETH $MU 民主党拿下关键席位后，政治格局发生变化，市场马上开始担忧监管收紧，而最敏感的方向就是AI数据中心建设、算力扩张、大型科技公司，都可能面临更严的审视。过去这轮美股牛市里，AI是最强的上涨主线，一旦这个预期被打上问号，抛售便随之启动。于是传导链条很清楚隔夜纳指跌近6%，创下单日点数跌幅纪录；费城半导体指数重挫超12%；恐慌指数VIX突破25，单日涨幅超过45%。资金的动作也很直接不是从一只股票换到另一只，而是撤出风险资产，转向短期美债避险，美国货币基金规模冲到8.016万亿美元的历史新高。钱并没有消失，只是不愿意再冒险。今早开盘后，这股情绪迅速跨过太平洋。韩国股市跌超8%，直接触发熔断，KOSPI跌破5000点，三星电子跌9.98%，SK海力士跌11.7%；日经也逼近技术性熊市。加密市场跟随下探到75200，并不令人意外。不过说实话，选举只是引线。不少公司依赖持续举债扩产。在高利率环境下，靠借钱烧出来的增长最先被抛售，这也是这轮AI交易集体退潮的根本原因。随后就是踩踏。抛售从芯片股扩散到整个科技板块，资金大规模转向短期美债，说明这不是普通调仓，而是风险偏好的撤退。属于是人为戳破AI泡沫了。#Anthropic November IPO plan may face uncertainties
The leader has something to say
I looked at this news together with yesterday's 5.5% drop in the Nasdaq, and the picture became clear: Reuters reported that some potential IPO investors in Anthropic feel the $1.5 trillion valuation is still too high and want a more attractive pricing; previously, the market expected a roadshow and listing in November, but now it may be delayed, with fundraising possibly shrinking from the original scale to about 80 billion, and valuation cut from 2 trillion to 1.5 trillion. The company is still losing money and carries huge commitments for computing power purchases.
My interpretation is: this is not just about Anthropic, the AI IPO window is closing. Yesterday, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 12%, and IREN and AAOI just released earnings reports; the market's tolerance for "burning cash to chase growth" is rapidly declining. Even the brightest star in AI has to renegotiate valuation, indicating that risk appetite in both primary and secondary markets is tightening simultaneously. For the crypto space, this is an emotional warning: if the AI narrative is disproven, high-beta assets will be repriced together.
BTC current price is about 75200, I continue to stay out of positions and wait for the 21:30 Nonfarm Payrolls. My approach: IPO delay won't directly crash BTC in the short term but will amplify panic; watch if 75000 holds, if broken look down to 73000. Before tonight's Nonfarm Payrolls release, all positions should be reduced to a level that allows you to sleep.
The above analysis is time-sensitive, please stay safe. $BTC $ETH $SNDK $XLY
How do employment data translate to discretionary consumption?
Tonight's report will update on jobs, wages, and unemployment. Household purchasing power comes from employment stability and real income, but high interest rates also suppress financing or large purchases like cars and travel. Nominal wage growth alone cannot represent consumption health.
If employment is stable, wages outpace living costs, and consumer credit pressure eases, demand assessment improves; if delinquency rates and reliance on promotions increase, I would lower expectations for profit margins.$DOGE Folks, listen to my advice, DOGE is eerily quiet. 📉 The order book is a dog-eat-dog battle, volume suddenly shrinks to a thin line, the dog whales have been holding their sickles high for a long time, just waiting for retail investors to cut losses. Damn it! I've been watching the 0.0724 level for three days, the previous low support is repeatedly tested, a typical end of a shakeout. Don't chase the highs, buy in batches on the pullback between 0.0720-0.0724, keep your position under 20%, stop loss at 0.0708. This market is really something, no news outside, purely forced by capital, let's quietly ambush following the dog whales' footprints. 🧘♂️
👇👇👇#非农今晚揭晓，美股大跌后市场如何押注12月加息？
Don't bombard my account tonight anymore!
The US October nonfarm payroll report, to be released at 21:30 Beijing time, is at an extremely perilous market juncture: the Nasdaq index just suffered a 6.4% crash on Thursday in the "AI trading meltdown," and quantitative CTA funds have started net selling. At this moment, the US stock market is trapped in the classic "good news is bad news" paradox—a strong nonfarm report not only fails to act as a market savior but instead triggers a "December rate hike" interest rate bomb on the wound of the "AI valuation faith collapse."
Nearly 100% expectation of a December rate hike, a comprehensive sell-off in US tech stocks, plus a major political shift after the midterm elections.
The worst data tonight
Hawkish hit (additions > 85,000, or unemployment rate drops to 4.1% / hourly wage MoM ≥ 0.4%): The most dangerous scenario. US Treasury yields and the USD/JPY index violently surge (USD/JPY may break above 159), the probability of a December rate hike approaches 90%+, "AI logic collapse + rising rates" form a Davis double whammy, and the Nasdaq and high Beta risk assets (including crypto) face a new round of liquidity tightening sell-off 🐻3 trillion dollars lost in one day, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index hit its largest single-day drop since March 2020, the Korean stock market directly triggered a circuit breaker, and last night the worst hit was not the crypto circle, but the world's toughest AI trade
There's a detail I don't know if everyone noticed: the Nasdaq dropped 5.52%, BTC dropped 5.28%, almost the same. In the past, when crypto fell, it was several times worse than the US stock market, but this time they are equal. What does this mean? It means the crypto bubble has already been squeezed out in advance; the biggest bubble is not here, but on the AI side
Some are still asking if the money will go to healthcare or arms, don't overthink it. This time it's a full withdrawal, running out of the crowded AI trades to hide in cash. It's not switching tracks; there is no track to switch to
On the crypto side, BTC is at 76047, last night’s 75200 was not broken again, considered stable, but ETFs have had a net outflow of about 1.1 billion in the past 7 days. This hidden worry remains. We can only say it’s not falling, not that it’s getting stronger
So how to look at the future? Don’t watch anything else, just watch when semiconductors stop falling. If they don’t stop falling, no one can be stable. When they stabilize, BTC at this level can be considered truly supported
Do you think this is the peak of AI, or a golden pit?
#美股遭大幅抛售：费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅 $BTC $ETH $SNDK # Tonight's Nonfarm Payrolls, I actually think it's not so easy to make money on either side.
21:30, US Nonfarm Payroll data release.
My view is: the real danger tonight is not whether the data is good or bad, but that the market has already priced in too many expectations.
If employment data is stronger than expected, the market may worry again about the Fed slowing rate cuts, with US Treasury yields and the dollar strengthening, and tech stocks and semiconductors possibly continuing to be under pressure.
If employment data is significantly weak, while rate cut expectations may heat up, we also need to be cautious of another scenario: the market starting to price in a US economic recession.
This is the most interesting part tonight.
**Good news may not lead to a rise, and bad news may not lead to a fall.**
Especially after yesterday's tech stocks collectively plunged, I think the most important thing to watch tonight is not the first 5-minute candlestick, but whether the Nasdaq, dollar index, and US Treasury yields can form a consistent direction after the data release.
Personally, I tend to wait and see first, not rush to bet on a direction.
After all, the market's favorite thing to do is to make everyone who thinks they are smart stand on the wrong side at the same time.
What do you think tonight?
Will Nonfarm Payrolls exceed expectations or fall short?
Do you think US stocks will rebound tonight or continue to plunge? #IREN accelerates transformation to AI cloud, business revenue grows 182% quarter-on-quarter
"IREN completely cuts off mining bets on AI cloud"
Former mining giant IREN dropped a bombshell in its Q3 financial report. AI cloud business revenue surged 182% quarter-on-quarter to $200 million, accounting for nearly 90% of total revenue, with a gross margin peaking at 86%.
Mining business revenue plummeted 58% to only $28 million, with computing power falling below 9 EH/s. Management clearly stated a full exit from large-scale mining by the end of 2026, reallocating plant power entirely to NVIDIA GPUs.
IREN sells all daily token output for cash, holding zero tokens on the books. Next steps include complete clearance of mining machines and computing power delivery by the end of December. $BTC $SNDK Recovery weak? Don't worry!
SanDisk was really fierce yesterday, the Democratic Party strictly prohibits regulating AI, storage plummeted in response, but finally caught up before the market opened today. Bottom-fishing funds have entered the market and it has begun to stabilize. Bears have already set their defense around 970-1000.
Sister Wen believes that recovering above 1000 should not be a big problem, but that level is not visible today. On Friday, funds mainly focused on defense, with little aggression.
After these violent declines in recent days, funds have clearly shrunk in volume, many bulls were liquidated, the downward space is no longer large, short positions have accumulated above, and there is significant room for upward movement.
The pre-market has already caught up, as long as it holds steady at the close tonight, Monday should see a wave of upward momentum, with a high probability of surpassing 1000 above. #非农今晚揭晓，美股大跌后市场如何押注12月加息？ What’s worth remembering about this FinTech Week in Hong Kong is not who spoke the most, but that three established institutions talked about the same thing.
HSBC’s timeline is practical: by 2027, it will establish a global AI and emerging technology research institute in Hong Kong to cultivate talent in artificial intelligence, blockchain, and quantum cryptography. The focus is on the research institute, not launching a token product. The bank is hiring, and the cycle is measured in years.
Standard Chartered talks about pipelines. Wintoss says the potential of stablecoins and tokenized deposits should be leveraged, while strengthening “interoperable market infrastructure and regulatory frameworks.” The key is interoperability: the ceiling for stablecoins is not issuance volume but whether banks can recognize each other’s accounts. $USDT’s circulation depends on its integration into the clearing process.
Franklin Templeton supplements the asset side: Gloria Zhuang believes blockchain and tokenized money market funds can improve payment and settlement efficiency. Trying tokenization with the most conservative products shows asset management seeks scenarios that can pass compliance reviews. Once the asset side is operational, the entry points for $BTC and $ETH won’t have to rely solely on ETFs.
Pakistan talks about incorporating digital assets into a secure regulatory environment, and the Thai SEC discusses a gradual path to integrating them into capital markets. The discussion is not about banning or allowing, but about how to integrate.
Connecting the dots: banks are hiring talent, the clearing layer is improving interoperability, asset management is enhancing assets, and regulators are defining pathways. These four things are happening simultaneously, pushing not emotions but processes.
What really needs attention is that the entire narrative is built on “stablecoins as infrastructure.” If the premise changes, the first to move won’t be prices but these pipelines under construction.In prediction markets, when people say things like "the coin is going to be listed, I have insider information," it sounds a bit off to me. Would someone who truly has insider info be so eager to share it with strangers?
When trading contracts, the main focus is on the price, and here you also have to consider under what conditions the event is considered to have occurred. If the odds go up, it means someone is willing to pay a higher price, but you can't tell if they really have insider knowledge or if they just heard the same rumors.
While I'm still scrutinizing the wording in the settlement terms, the comment section is already discussing it as if they've been in the project team's meeting room.The Democratic Party swept both the House and Senate, and the market immediately began pricing in expectations of tighter AI regulation, leading to a direct repricing of high-valuation compute power chains. $BTC $ETH $SNDK Trump came out to deflect blame saying "it wasn't us," which is half true and half false. After the Democrats took control of both chambers, Trump's tax cuts and fiscal stimulus plans are likely to be blocked, and the expectation of tighter AI regulation directly smashed the valuation of compute power chains. But calling this a "warning to the Democrats" is a bit conspiratorial. The market won't play along with anyone's script; the severe drop this time is essentially due to three overlapping factors: First, the AI sector's valuation was already very high, with giants like Nvidia having negative free cash flow, and the market had long been worried about investment returns. Second, after the Democratic victory, governors in key data center states like Texas also switched to Democrats, making the expectation of tighter local approvals a reality. Third, concentrated liquidations of highly leveraged long positions amplified panic, causing a stampede. So this is not a "warning," but a concentrated clearing caused by a sudden shift in political expectations combined with a valuation bubble. However, JPMorgan also said that the Democrats do not have the votes to override a presidential veto, so radical federal restrictions are unlikely to pass; the real risk is concentrated in local approvals. This level of panic selling might actually be an opportunity for chip exchange. The key is whether the Nasdaq can hold steady at critical levels in the coming days. #美股遭大幅抛售：费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅 Tonight at 21:30 (Beijing Time), the US October Nonfarm Payrolls will be released. The consensus expects an increase of 59,000 jobs, compared to only 29,000 in September; from January 2025 to this September, the monthly average increase was only 35,000, with seven months of negative growth. The unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 4.2% — the labor force has shrunk by nearly one million since last September, so the numerator is weak, and the denominator is retreating first as a courtesy.
The backdrop was already set last night: the Nasdaq dropped 5.52% into a correction range, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 12%, marking the largest single-day drop since March 2020, with concerns over AI capital expenditure compounded by regulatory expectations following the Democrats taking control of both chambers.
Currently, CME pricing shows about a 68.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in December. Most economists believe this report won’t change the December decision. The awkward situation is: if the data is too strong, rate hikes become more justified; if the data is too weak, recession narratives take over. Volatility is inevitable either way, so be cautious around the release.Nonfarm payrolls night coincides with SanDisk breaking down, oversold rebound possible, but it's too early to talk about a reversal
Dear shareholders, tonight at 21:30 is the nonfarm payrolls report. $SNDK hit a low directly breaking below 800 last night (touched 793.7), now the price has pulled back near 880, with extremely volatile intraday swings.
Let's talk about nonfarm first. The market expects an increase of only 60,000, but the ADP and ISM data from the past two days were actually not weak. Don't treat tonight's nonfarm as a signal for rate cuts—the data being too weak will first trigger hard landing panic; if the data is too strong, it will directly raise rate hike expectations, causing US Treasury yields to spike and the Nasdaq and crypto markets to get hammered. Tonight will most likely be a meat grinder with sharp up and down spikes.
Now about SanDisk. Why did it break below 800? Because of the Nasdaq's plunge, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index's heavy drop, plus concerns about tighter AI regulation after the Democrats took both houses, dragging the entire sector down. SanDisk's Q1 earnings were actually very strong (revenue 11 billion, EPS 49.51 beating expectations), completely dragged down by macro sentiment overreaction.
My judgment: oversold pullbacks can be watched, but definitely don't treat it as a reversal.
The moving averages above are still diverging downward, and trend pressure remains heavy. The real medium-term turning point is the 1-for-8 stock split on November 19; before that, any sentiment recovery can only be considered a rebound, not a reversal.
With nonfarm landing tonight, I will stay on the sidelines in my live trading and not catch a falling knife. No matter how much rebound there is, I won't go heavy without seeing a right-side stable candlestick. This is not investment advice. Shareholders, do you think 800 can hold tonight? $XLRE
Non-farm cooling, when will the real estate sector truly benefit?
Tonight's employment report may affect expectations for financing costs. Real estate requires both lower capital costs and tenants' ability to pay. The interest rate cut expectations triggered by weak growth may come with pressure on occupancy rates and rents.
I am focusing on financing spreads, rent collection, and occupancy rates. If costs decrease while operational demand remains, recovery has a stronger foundation; if tenant pressure expands first, valuation rebounds will still need to be discounted.$ETH Last night's market action was not a pullback, it was a liquidation.
All three major indexes recorded their largest single-day drop since April 2025. The Nasdaq retreated 11.9% from its October 6 high, officially entering a technical correction.
🎯 The trigger was not economic data, but a single statement
After the Democrats swept both chambers, Arizona federal representative Ansari publicly stated: the top priority for the next Democratic Congress is to pause the development of advanced artificial intelligence, implement regulations, and impose a ban on super artificial intelligence. Senator Sanders simultaneously posted that the vast majority of voters in his district support pausing AI data center construction.
This statement hit an extremely vulnerable spot. The valuation anchor for AI trades over the past two years has been the linear extrapolation that "capital expenditure can expand indefinitely." The more data centers built, the more chips purchased, the higher the valuation given. The Democrats' signal directly tells the market: the approval channel for expansion may narrow, and the sustainability of capital expenditure needs to be repriced. The regulatory uncertainty brought by the midterm elections precisely hits the most fragile link in AI trades—the sustainability of capital expenditure.
Semiconductors are the hardware layer of AI infrastructure and are most sensitive to changes in policy direction and capital expenditure expectations, so the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell more than twice as much as the broader market. This does not mean AI demand has disappeared; the market is repricing the political friction around AI expansion.
$BTC $SNDK
#美股遭大幅抛售：费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅 #ModernaQ3财报将揭示疫苗销售趋势 #ModernaQ3财报将揭示疫苗销售趋势 Moderna was still stuck at a few dozen dollars at the beginning of the year, but after the phase 3 data for the melanoma vaccine came out in August, it forced a short squeeze, rising more than sevenfold within the year. Yesterday, it even surged to a historic intraday high of 261 — but the day before the earnings report, it dropped 6.5%, with profit-taking faster than anyone else.
For tonight's pre-market Q3 earnings report, I think the real focus isn't whether EPS can beat expectations. It has beaten 7 out of the past 8 quarters, and 94% of the community has bet Yes; this kind of "beat expectations" has long been priced in. What I want to see are two numbers: first, as Q3 is the peak vaccination season, whether the COVID vaccine is still selling well — this revenue has been shrinking every year, and whether the full-year guidance can hold; second, how long the cash on hand can last. As for the stock price, it has already surged 75% above the average analyst target price, so any slight disappointment in the earnings report will cause significant volatility.
I personally took a small position on Outcomes with a Yes bet, just for the sense of participation. Chasing with real money at this level is out of the question; the earnings report feels more like opening a blind box.Last night at 23:40, the BTC long position at 79,200 was liquidated, and my account retraced 6.8% in this round, while friends who were fully leveraged retraced over 18%. I reduced my leverage to 1x at 82,000, the cost being missing out on much of the upside, but the benefit is that I still have available funds.
Follow me and you can see two specific things: daily public real-position ratios and set stop-loss prices, as well as post-mistake reviews without deleting posts.
At the 76,000 level, I don’t look at charts but at the source of funds. US stocks have been weakening continuously, and risk assets are deleveraging overall. In such times, the crypto space is never a safe haven, just the one with the highest leverage. ETH dropped 7.6%, 2.3 points more than BTC, indicating funds are contracting into the hardest assets; QNT’s -6.8% is just passive following, so don’t rush to buy without an independent narrative.
Binance has resumed partial asset withdrawals, which some see as positive news. My view is that this is just the end of a liquidity event and does not generate new buying pressure. What really needs watching is whether the perpetual funding rate turns negative and when stablecoin net inflows return to positive. Until these two signals appear, my position cap is 30%.
So the choice is straightforward: do you wait for the funding rate to turn negative before entering your first position, or start averaging in at the 75,000 price level?
Follow me for daily public real-position ratios and stop-loss logic, and I write honestly even when losing.
#OKXProphet #美国新旧国会交接或影响美伊局势
Seeing this news, four words immediately popped into my mind: taking advantage of a crisis. This is not just a simple international news story; it directly touches the lifelines of crude oil, US stocks, and the crypto market with a macro hidden thread.
1. The "Power Vacuum" Struggle
The Democrats have won but haven't handed over power yet, leaving a dangerous time window. The Trump administration still retains the option to take military action against Iran during this period, which is a form of strategic maneuvering. If a conflict breaks out in the Middle East, crude oil $BZ, which has risen 1.38%, will surely surge instantly. Once geopolitical risk sentiment ignites, gold will rise, and risk assets (Bitcoin, tech stocks) will definitely face a sharp sell-off.
2. The Hidden Thread of "Computing Power Being Choked"
Look at the community opinions below; they are extremely critical! After the Democrats take control of Congress, they will most likely target environmental protection and regulation, tightening data center approvals. What does this mean? It means the computing power expansion of cloud giants like Nvidia and Amazon will be directly restrained! Coupled with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index just plummeting yesterday, the valuations of tech stocks and the AI sector will be severely hammered by policy in the short term.
3. My Trading Iron Rule
The current macro environment is: rising geopolitical risks + heavy regulatory pressure on tech stocks + shrinking risk appetite. Under such macro conditions, absolutely avoid heavy bets on one-sided moves, and never blindly bottom-fish tech stocks.
I will closely watch the crude oil trend; once geopolitical tensions worsen, the rebound of Bitcoin and US stock tokens will be an excellent opportunity to short at highs.After reading, I noted three things. My first reaction was not to directly translate the election headline as market direction. Political news easily confuses "winning seats" with "policy implementation," so I need to make a checklist for myself.
1. According to PANews citing QCP Capital, the Democrats took both chambers of Congress, with the Senate currently leading 54 to 44 seats, and the House at 253 to 155 seats, but without reaching a two-thirds majority, so they cannot override Trump's veto. My judgment is that this signals intensified policy bargaining rather than a confirmed policy shift.
2. I am more cautious about risk appetite resonance: on Thursday, the S&P 500 fell 4.36%, the Nasdaq dropped 5.52%, and Bitcoin fell 5.5% to $76,036. $BTC and U.S. stocks fell together, at least reminding me not to focus solely on crypto narratives, but also not to attribute all the declines on the same day solely to the election.
3. AI infrastructure is a line I will continue to follow. QCP mentioned approval delays and reduced tax incentives, which are still possibilities. If these measures do advance, then the construction pace and cost expectations of related projects may be under pressure. This is my speculation, not a realized outcome.
My checklist in one sentence: distinguish seats, policies, and market reactions. What would everyone add as a fourth point—veto power struggles or AI infrastructure approval progress?30 hours of short positions, 9 price differences, a floating profit of 5000 points on paper, this is not bragging, but a position record to review. The real question is: was this drop driven by news, or was it a leverage-induced stampede? On November 5, ADP private employment increased by 86,000, higher than the expected 69,000, and the ISM services index continued to expand. The data itself is not explosive, but it is a precursor to the non-farm payrolls, and the market immediately priced in a full December rate hike. When I was watching the market, the most obvious feeling was not panic, but that expectations were brought forward onto the table. When the non-farm payrolls are released, the market might not have much room to fall further. The capital side is also cooperating. The US spot Bitcoin ETF has seen net outflows of about $1.16 billion over three consecutive trading days, with BlackRock's IBIT alone outflowing $734 million, accounting for more than 60%. This indicates that the selling pressure is not retail sentiment, but positions with significant volume reducing exposure. ETF outflows often lag behind price movements but will affect the strength of any rebound. Leverage acts as an accelerator. The 24-hour total liquidations across the network approached $1 billion, mostly long positions, with BTC long liquidations around $87.49 million. The 81300 level was repeatedly tested but not held, the daily chart shows a head and shoulders pattern forming, EMA30 is pressing down, and MACD remains below the zero line. After breaking the level, automatic sell orders took over, amplifying the decline. On the bullish side: after squeezing out leverage, floating positions become lighter, and if the non-farm payrolls disappoint, short covering could be quick. On the bearish side: ETFs are still seeing outflows, the rate hike narrative is not over, and rebounds are likely to become windows for reducing positions. My adjustment: take profits on short positions in batches, do not try to guess the bottom; if 813Oil prices took a rollercoaster ride this week. Brent $BZ dropped more than 8% in one day on Wednesday, falling below $100 for the first time since early October, then rebounded consecutively on Thursday and Friday, reporting $99.9 this morning. WTI hovered around 91.7, still down about 12% for the week.
Two things pulled it back. After the midterm elections on Thursday, Trump held his first Iran meeting, saying a decision on whether to "go further" would be made soon, and admitted 18 US soldiers have died. Attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz have not stopped; the Maritime Information Center reported four attacks within 96 hours as of November 5.
Many institutions are betting. Rapidan's McNally gives an 80% probability of resuming military action, believing both oils will exceed $100. Lombard Odier says the lame-duck period before the new Congress swears in January gives Trump a window.
On the negotiation side, Reuters reported Iran submitted a nuclear proposal via Qatar, but the US must first meet "seven demands," including lifting port blockades and releasing assets, in exchange for Hormuz passage; the US insists nuclear issues must be discussed from the start. Vance said the Republicans lost because of this battle; he has been pushing for negotiations.
The sharp drop on Wednesday was a bet that there would be a way out after the election, with most of it recovered in two days, showing the market does not trust the Qatar line. Next week, the House will vote on impeaching Hegseth; Trump's "soon" depends on passing Congress first. If Brent holds above 100, the 80% probability of a rate hike in December becomes harder to ease; if the US concedes on one of the seven demands, Wednesday's low could return. $CL $QQQ The bull market is about to end!
Elizabeth Warren is very likely to become the chair of the Senate Banking Committee, and the crypto community should be cautious!
After the midterm elections, with the Democrats taking the Senate, Elizabeth Warren is highly likely to become the next chair of the Banking Committee. She has long been known as the "Wall Street nemesis" and is one of the toughest opponents of the crypto industry.
Everyone knows what she has done over the years: she led the establishment of the CFPB after the financial crisis, has consistently advocated for breaking up big banks and strengthening regulation; publicly criticized crypto for being prone to money laundering, sanction evasion, and fraud; has long opposed the CLARITY Act; and has repeatedly written letters demanding investigations into the Trump family's World Liberty Financial and the funding sources of stablecoins.
Her latest move was on November 3rd, publicly opposing the CFTC's approval of US stock perpetual contracts, saying this effectively turns the stock market into a 24-hour high-risk casino, which could amplify volatility and insider trading.
Personally, I think that once she becomes chair, crypto regulation will likely tighten, especially regarding stablecoins, exchange compliance, and leveraged products. It won't be an immediate big move, but the policy direction will clearly harden, and market sentiment will be affected.
So I didn't panic sell or add positions because of this news; I’m keeping my position controlled and focusing on her upcoming specific actions on stablecoins and perpetual contracts.
What do you think? After Warren takes office, will crypto really be suppressed, or is it just talk?
#比特币承压，ETF近7日净流出约11亿美元 The Nasdaq fell 5.5% last night, marking its largest single-day drop in a year and a half. The crypto market followed suit, enduring a full day of losses, with the Fear and Greed Index dropping from 50 to 28. On Thursday, spot ETFs saw an outflow of $530 million, and the three major coins today are competing to see which falls the least.
$BTC is around 76060, with 75000 as the last barrier.
It dropped 5.3% in 24 hours, hitting a low of 75463 on Thursday, breaking below the 50-week moving average. ETFs had an outflow of $430 million in one day, with BlackRock's IBIT withdrawing funds for five consecutive days, totaling over $1 billion since October 30.
$ETH is around 2238, the worst performer among the three 📉
It dropped 7.3% in 24 hours, returning to its lowest level since August. Liquidations reached $210 million in one day, with long positions accounting for $179 million. Spot ETFs also saw nearly $100 million in outflows. Contract open interest shrank from nearly $16 billion at the end of September to $11.4 billion.
$SOL is around 90.1, sitting on the 200-day moving average.
It dropped 6.7% in 24 hours, hitting a low of 88.83 on Thursday, with the 200-day moving average at 88.93. This is the first time since August 20 it has touched this level. Spot ETFs have had net outflows for four consecutive weeks.
Bitcoin is the most stable; van de Poppe bets that once it sweeps through 75000, it will hit bottom. However, the Nasdaq is not only falling, and IBIT continues to bleed funds, so this bottom may not hold. Ethereum is the most precarious; leverage has retreated but ETFs are still running, and if 2200 is lost, the next target is 2000. SOL has 9 days left until the Breakpoint conference; those waiting for the conference to save the market should first watch whether it closes above or below 88.93 this week. #非农今晚揭晓，美股大跌后市场如何押注12月加息？ The US stock market has taken a severe hit this time, with Wall Street losing $3.2 trillion in a single day, and the Nasdaq plunging 5.52%. $BTC $ETH $SNDK
Trump quickly came out to distance himself, blaming the Democrats on social media, saying this was done by "stupid Democrats," not the Republicans.
Someone did the math: this $3.2 trillion loss is roughly equivalent to one-sixth the size of the A-share market. The result of the American people's choice is that the global market bears the burden together; Japan and South Korea plunged right at the open, and South Korea even triggered a circuit breaker.
The biggest question now is: is this the start of a new round of decline, or will the market turn bullish after this emotional release?
From the market perspective, this sell-off hit AI and semiconductors. After the Democrats took control of Congress, the market fears tighter regulation and a slowdown in data center construction, causing the high-valuation computing power chain to be repriced. But AI demand itself hasn't disappeared; it may just be delayed. Panic selling at this level is often when the most intense chip exchanges happen.
The key is whether the market can hold steady at critical levels in the next few days. If the Nasdaq can stop falling near the 10-day moving average, it means funds are still present, and the shakeout will actually be healthier. If it continues to break down, a reassessment will be necessary. #美股遭大幅抛售：费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅 The market after extreme panic often hides the most dangerous battles!
Looking at this pain point chart, there are several very strong signals:
1. $BTC trapped in a symmetrical minefield: current price 76061. A 1.49% drop triggers 75 million in liquidations, a 1.49% rise triggers 93 million in short liquidations. The main force can easily choose any direction and consume huge liquidity.
2. The "deep V" temptation of US stock tokens: SOXL, $SNDK have fallen deeply, but note their gravitational direction is all "upward." The short profits above are very thick, once a rebound occurs, it can easily trigger a short squeeze.
3. The extreme bias of $DOGE: 93% upward, only 1.22% away from the short pain point. This means Dogecoin's downside is limited now, but the upward short squeeze momentum could erupt at any time.
Strategy: Now is definitely walking a tightrope at high altitude.
Don't bet on a one-sided move. Either wait for the short positions above to be fully liquidated and then follow the trend to go long, or wait for the long positions below to be cleared to catch the bloodied chips.
In the middle zone, keep your hands off!
#非农今晚揭晓，美股大跌后市场如何押注12月加息？ #美股遭大幅抛售：费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅 Seeing this news, I took a sharp breath. A 12% plunge in a single day, with a market cap evaporating by 3 trillion, this is not a mere correction; it's a systemic deleveraging stampede, and panic has completely spread.
The most ironic thing is, while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index crashed terribly, the $SOXL token actually rose over 7%. This extreme divergence in the market indicates very poor liquidity in US stock tokens. The slight rebound after the crash is purely a short-term recovery from oversold sentiment, with the main players using this bounce to wildly lure in buyers and trap them.
From the underlying logic, concerns about stricter policy regulation and the bursting of high valuation bubbles remain unresolved; the long-term cycle trend has completely deteriorated. The high probability for the future is a weak rebound followed by a deep secondary bottom test. Entering the market at this point has no margin of safety; I absolutely will not blindly bottom-fish. Patience to wait for this induced rally to end, then follow the trend to short on the right side, is the way to survive.
When the tide goes out, you find out who’s been swimming naked. The address starting with FGjDGz just dumped about 674 million PUMP.
Lookonchain detected: about 674.32 million PUMP sold around 7 hours ago, exchanged for approximately 2.59 million USDC, realizing a loss of about 409,000 USD. At the time of writing, PUMP is about 0.00395, BTC about 75666, ETH about 2229.
I will keep an eye on one point: whether this kind of dumping at the scale of hundreds of millions is a one-time clearance or if there will be a second wave later. The amount is not large but the quantity is scary; short-term market is most afraid of consecutive sell-offs.
Do you think PUMP will be dumped again by whales, or has the selling pressure been cleared?
Stay tuned, I will continue to monitor this selling pressure chain.
$PUMP European asset management giant moves 600 stock index funds onto Ethereum?
According to a report on November 6, Europe's large asset management company Amundi, in cooperation with CACEIS, launched a tokenized fund share on the Ethereum public chain.
The corresponding fund tracks the STOXX Europe 600 index, covering about 600 large, medium, and small listed companies in Europe.
There is a point that can be easily misunderstood here: it is not that 600 companies each issued on-chain stocks, but that the fund tracking this index added a tokenized share category.
Previously, when people talked about assets going on-chain, they might have thought of stablecoins and government bonds.
Now even traditional stock index funds are exploring this approach.
However, tokenizing fund shares does not necessarily mean the ETH price will rise.
What do you think will be the real breakout point for RWA in the future: tokenization of government bonds, or stocks and index funds? $BTC #美股遭大幅抛售：费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅 Is the pre-market surge in semiconductors a rebound or a real reversal?
Last night’s big bearish candle didn’t fully play out, and this morning the semiconductor chain started climbing on its own before the market opened. On OKX, Marvell Technology xMRVL is at 143, +8.29%, 24h range 130.29-155.56; it hit a low near 130 yesterday, then pulled back to 10 o’clock level today, but still below the previous high; Nvidia xNVDA is at 189.22, +4.53%, and the triple-leveraged xSOXL is up +15.45%, the whole chain is bouncing together.
Key position: 143 is just below MA5 at 143.48 and MA120 at 144.20, both moving averages pressing down; MACD is -0.20, RSI 53.89, recovering only from oversold to neutral. Support at 131.69, resistance at 149.19. In short, this is an oversold recovery, not a trend reversal to bullish.
The broader environment is colder: total crypto market cap down -3.94%, ETF net outflows. The rebound is only in US stock tokens; spot market hasn’t loosened liquidity, so the fuel looks more like short covering.
In my view, a 5% drop last night and an 8% pre-market bounce today is normal. Whether this is a bottom depends on holding the 144 MA120 level and whether there’s volume to break through 149.19. If it can’t hold 144, it’s an opportunity for bulls to exit.
Watch the opening volume and MRVL’s behavior around 144.
#MRVL #Semiconductors #USStockTokens
Personal observation, not investment advice, DYOR. Trump Coin dropped 20%, $BTC touched 81,000
On the same day, two politically related coins went in opposite directions.
Trump Coin dropped 20%, $BTC touched 81,000.
The difference lies in ownership: Trump Coin's traffic is borrowed.
$BTC's ledger can't be shut down no matter who takes office.
Who provides the hype: Trump Coin's price is supported by one person's name.
The name's hype will fade, and once it does, no one will take over.
Who owns the ledger: $BTC is not controlled by any government administration.
Change the person, change the party, the chain keeps running.
Borrowed hype must be repaid when due.
#比特币承压，ETF近7日净流出约11亿美元
#$BTC $SOXL Watching this market, I couldn't help but gasp! The 3x leveraged semiconductor ETF has surged sharply from the bottom at 38.82, jumping over 8%, trampling the moving averages above, looking extremely bullish in the short term.
But when I glanced at the data panel, I instantly sobered up—the long position ratio has terrifyingly soared to 86.82%, with a long-short ratio as high as 6.59! This clearly shows retail investors' extreme greed written all over their faces. With shorts almost completely wiped out, what reason does the main force have to lead such a huge and crowded follow-up rally? This is very likely a trap to lure buyers in a rebound after an oversell.
Although there is a short-term bullish divergence repair and a golden cross in indicators, this is merely a secondary pullback in a weak cycle. The major bearish pressure still exists and is close to a strong resistance zone above, where a bull stampede could happen at any time. Entering at this position has extremely low safety margin, and the risk-reward ratio is completely unattractive. I absolutely will not chase the high; I will patiently wait for this false rally to fade, confirm the top with a weak rebound, and then short on the right side following the trend.The most noteworthy aspect of Binance's $6.3 billion incident is not the number itself, but the undisclosed parts so far: internal controls on hot wallet management, signature mechanisms, and transaction limits.
Co-CEO Richard Teng said on October 30 that the attack affected the exchange's own hot wallets, with most customer assets stored offline in cold storage and only transferred to hot wallets upon withdrawal. The Tuesday report admitted that attackers accessed the internal wallet signature service, bypassing the normal withdrawal process to transfer funds. The cold storage was unaffected; the issue occurred at the step of transferring funds into the hot wallet during withdrawal.
CertiK analyst Jonathan Riss added that the $6.3 billion is the cumulative value of affected assets across 10 blockchains, not a single transfer. On Ethereum, attackers repeatedly drained the hot wallet as new deposits arrived, exploiting a vulnerability that could be triggered multiple times.
On-chain records cannot verify the internal signature architecture and limits, as this part is off-chain. Riss judges that application-side limits can be bypassed when the system is compromised, but the independently executed signature system might still be effective. What truly prevented losses was not the interface numbers but the signature process's own safeguards, which are invisible externally.
Idan Ofrat from Fireblocks provided a reference: hot wallets usually hold only a few days' worth of withdrawals, accounting for a low single-digit percentage of managed assets. Coinbase, Gate, and Upbit disclosed their cold storage ratios afterward, but Binance did not.Technical Aspect: 77,500-$78,000 is the "Recovery Threshold"
Category Key Position Meaning
Recovery Threshold $77,500 - $78,000 Analyst consensus: Only by reclaiming this area is there room for recovery; otherwise, the rebound remains weak
Short-term Bull-Bear Boundary $78,117 (Bollinger Middle Band) 4-hour level bull-bear boundary line, price operates below it
Key Resistance (Moving Average) $78,188 (EMA90) Daily EMA90, also a key resistance level; above $80,000 is a psychological integer barrier
Last Defensive Line $75,150 - $75,000 The last important defense area for bulls; if lost, the downside targets $73,000-$74,000
Intraday Low $75,200 Rebound triggered here today, highly overlapping with the $75,000 defense line
Bollinger Lower Band $75,023 The last procedural technical defense line
Essence of Technical Signals: The daily K-line shows a very long bearish body, breaking below EMA15, 30, and 60 moving averages, currently barely standing above EMA90 (77,140); MACD bearish momentum is still releasing, Bollinger Bands open downward with three bands, price closely running along the lower band. On the 4-hour level, price is below 78,444 and EMA30 ($80,749), indicating a weak rebound structure; the mid-term trend has not reversed yet.
Order Book Liquidity is Extremely Thin: The top five bid volumes total only 0.0104, while ask volumes reach 0.3081, showing a severe imbalance between buy and sell. Concentrated buy orders near $75,700 are very small in absolute volume, making support relatively weak. This means any directional push could be amplified by the shallow liquidity.
$BTC $ETH $SNDK #美国新旧国会交接或影响美伊局势 Diary of November 6
Stop Loss
Loss aversion leads to avoiding stop losses, and borrowed money ignores position management, always thinking there are still bullets left.
The scariest thing is that it causes unwillingness to miss any opportunity,
ignoring risks, and loss aversion simultaneously amplifies losses.
When entering a good position or a place allowing phased building of positions, one wishes to go all in at once, resulting in taking profits at slight gains and enduring losses far beyond those gains.
I hope everyone puts their full effort into going long in life.周四的长阴，尽数回吐了周三选举落地带来的乐观行情。市场并非重新消化民主党掌控国会的结果，而是开始重新定价AI资本开支的扩张空间。 标普收7353.73，下跌4.36%，单日跌幅重回去年4月关税冲击级别；道指下跌1833点至51523，跌幅3.44%；纳指跌5.52%至24315，较10月高点回撤超10%，进入调整。罗素2000跌4.45%，费城半导体指数大跌超12%，逼近2020年3月跌幅记录；VIX上行至28.18，单日涨幅近70%。 芯片为杀跌主线：英伟达跌9.26%，美光、AMD、Marvell跌幅接近17%，SanDisk跌超20%。科技板块整体下行约7%，标普全部行业收跌。行情由数据中心产业链向外扩散，存储、光模块、算力租赁、电力相关标的同步走弱。 当前市场定价的核心，是数据中心扩张节奏。民主党掌控两院后，交易预期转向项目审批收紧、用电成本上行、资本开支放缓。周三阳线是政治不确定性消退带来的修复，周四阴线，则是新增政策约束进入估值模型，二者逻辑截然不同。 预期重估不会转瞬结束。数据中心赛道逻辑难以在单季度内反转，但“无上限扩张”的估值溢价会率先被压缩。本周英伟$BTC – BEARISH SIGNAL 📉 $BTC is showing a short-term recovery, but the overall 1H trend remains under pressure as price is still below the EMA20 resistance near $76,450.
A rejection around $76,200–$76,450 could create a SHORT opportunity. 🎯
Targets: $75,800 – $75,400 – $75,150.
🛑 Stop Loss: $76,850. Wait for bearish confirmation before entering.
Manage risk carefully, as a breakout above resistance could invalidate this setup.
#DailyOrbit @OKX 结构化产品导航站 🚨 BTC short storm is coming! Don't rush to bottom fish this time!
Bitcoin's downward pressure is intensifying! On November 5th, the US spot BTC ETF saw a single-day net outflow of about $430 million, with funds withdrawing for multiple consecutive days, totaling a net outflow of about $1.51 billion over five trading days. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq experienced its largest single-day drop since April 2025.
Capital outflows, stock market plunge, and liquidity tightening — triple pressures are suppressing BTC.
My view: firmly bearish in the short term! The rebound lacks capital support, and the bearish trend continues. The $75,000 level is facing a test, and the downside risk should not be underestimated.
Don't blindly bottom fish; in the face of the trend, sentiment is worthless! $BTC $ETH
#BTC #Bitcoin #OKX #ExclusiveBearishAnalysisThe market maintained a range-bound oscillation between 76300-75200 during the day, with downward support.
Friday evening:
Near 75700-75200↑, target 76700-77200-77700.
Near 2220-2200↑, target 2255-2275-2295.
Oscillation range 765-750, fluctuating 500-1000 points up and down; posture range 2210-2250, fluctuating 15-25 points up and down. The market is highly volatile, pay attention to risk control, and secure profits within the range swing to be safe.
$BTC $ETH $XLF
Is rising interest rates a help or a burden for financial stocks?
Tonight's employment data could change the yield curve. Banks might benefit from higher asset yields but could also face pressure from deposit costs, bond valuations, and credit losses. The entire financial sector cannot be explained by a single interest rate direction.
If net interest margins improve and credit losses remain stable, the profit logic is healthier; if the yield increase comes from inflationary pressure and loan quality deteriorates, I would downgrade the sector outlook. The central bank specifically named Solana for advertising in Lujiazui, and this brand promotion has hit a snag.
A responsible official from the People's Bank of China stated that they have monitored Solana placing advertisements in Shanghai's Lujiazui area through relevant domestic entities, promoting virtual currency marketing under the guise of brand promotion. The central bank has jointly launched an investigation with local financial regulators, public security, and market supervision departments. This is a rare explicit statement from regulators targeting virtual currency marketing activities within the country, directly focusing on Solana's public chain brand promotion.
The judgment leans bearish but mainly targets Solana and all public chain teams still conducting offline brand exposure within China. There is no direct impact on the pricing of mainstream assets like BTC and ETH. Domestic virtual currency trading speculation has always been under strict control, and advertising is the easiest target to be caught. Once classified as marketing promotion, all domestic entities, agents, and venues involved in the advertising will be implicated. The price of SOL is still mainly driven by U.S. tech stock sentiment, ecosystem activity, and ETF funds. This news is more of a narrative-level suppression and may trigger short-term preemptive sell-offs.
Observation 1: If the project parties subsequently withdraw similar offline advertising, it signals that the brand promotion space is narrowing and the industry has taken note.
Observation 2: If SOL fails to hold at key support levels, it indicates that short-term sentiment is pricing in ahead of fundamentals. Are you more concerned about the withdrawal of advertising or the support level holding?
Source: Wu ShuoCurrently, our overall operational approach mainly remains a range-bound bias with a slight bullish tilt, as it is no longer suitable to blindly short after a sharp short-term drop. At this stage, we continue to rely on key support levels below to buy the dip and play for a rebound, with a focus on observing the new directional choices of the market after the release of the non-farm payroll data. The volatility in the evening session is expected to increase significantly, and all short-term ups and downs are normal range switches. We need to patiently wait for the market to break through the various upper and lower ranges before following the new trend accordingly.
The specific trading points in the evening should be grasped sequentially based on the breakthrough of the key levels analyzed in the article. The exact entry opportunities will depend on the further breakout situation of the market after the non-farm payroll data is released. At that time, I will also provide real-time monitoring and guidance to each live trading client. Last night before Micron's sharp drop, someone just opened a MU long position worth about $31 million.
Ember monitoring: This address took a long position at about 775.25 for approximately $31 million nominal around 11 PM last night, before MU started to fall; subsequently, MU dropped about 17% overnight, hitting a low near 650, with an unrealized loss reaching about $5 million at one point. The current price has rebounded to around 700, narrowing the unrealized loss to about $3.12 million. At the time of writing, BTC≈75984, ETH≈2234.
My judgment is: the entry point was just one second before the cliff, the numbers speak for themselves — what matters more than slogans is whether to hold on or cut losses next.
Would you choose to hold on until a rebound, or cut this $31 million nominal position first?
If you want to see what happens next, hit follow.
$MU Elon Musk lost nearly eighty billion dollars in net worth in one day, with Tesla and SpaceX combined market value evaporating by more than four hundred billion dollars after the midterm elections.
Tesla closed down nearly 11% last night, and pre-market rebounded by more than two points tonight.
Elon also said that Cybertruck production will stop next year mid-year at the Texas Gigafactory, with the production line being freed up for Cybercab. Since its launch, this vehicle has gone through recalls, quality issues, and price cuts, and now it has come to the point of production halt, quite awkward~
There is also the non-farm payroll report tonight, which is expected to stir up the market again. A very promising asset!
$SOL is currently priced at 90.05, down 6.9% in the last 24 hours.
The recent trend of this coin has started to get interesting. From the previous high of 313.38, it has fallen all the way down to a low of 78.25. After such a long period of adjustment, it has finally shown some improvement recently, rebounding 15.1% from the low point.
The daily MACD has already shown signs of warming up, the price has returned above the Bollinger middle band, and the trading volume has shown some activity. Although it is still far from the previous high, at least some positive changes can be seen at the moment.
What makes this coin most attractive is that sometimes the market hasn't really noticed it yet, but the price has already started to change quietly.
Will $SOL become a dark horse later? What do you think about the potential of this coin? #币圈