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Bitcoin jumps 5%, then wipes out the gains. Who’s really controlling this game?
From panic to recovery and then another brutal dump, retail traders keep getting caught on the wrong side. The next two weeks could bring even more volatility as fear rises and liquidity remains weak.
My view: another correction is possible. Don’t chase pumps or blindly buy dips. Protect your capital first.
Survive the storm. The next opportunity will come.
#DailyOrbit Whale's large short positions exposed! Mainstream coins all shorted
A perpetual contract position worth a total of 500 million USD has surfaced, with the whale simultaneously shorting BTC, ETH, and SOL, all using 5X cross margin. Currently, all positions are floating in profit and continue to collect funding fees.
📊 Position details
- BTC | Short, 5X cross margin
Position: -2024.92 BTC, position value 150 million U
Entry price: 77991.0 U
Unrealized P&L: +3.8921 million U
Margin: 30.8067 million U
Funding fee income: +3.2205 million U
Liquidation price: 122962.47 U
- ETH | Short, 5X cross margin
Position: -33,600 ETH, position value 75.3273 million U
Entry price: 2375.08 U
Unrealized P&L: +4.539 million U
Margin: 15.0655 million U
Funding fee income: +3.4611 million U
Liquidation price: 5050.6 U
- SOL | Short, 5X cross margin
Position: -242,200 SOL, position value 21.8747 million U
Entry price: 91.4221 U
Unrealized P&L: +268,900 U
Margin: 4.3749 million U
Funding fee income: +560,900 U
Liquidation price: 477.74 U There's something I've never understood: the news is clearly positive, yet the coin price drops.
On November 4th, the result came out, BTC surged all the way above 80,000, and 320 million in shorts were liquidated within half an hour. Everyone on social media was shouting about a bull comeback. But the next day, it was 76,000.
Later I realized, that spike up wasn't because someone was buying, it was because someone was forced to liquidate. After the shorts were squeezed out, the buying pressure disappeared, and the price naturally fell back.
So don't get excited just by the liquidation numbers; the bigger the number, the more it shows leverage is moving, not money entering the market. $ETH weakening along with it is the same principle.Good evening, everyone! Here's the evening Yellowfish update from Yingying!
After surging to 4081, it faced resistance and fell back, weakening with fluctuations. The non-farm payrolls report is about to be released, and short-term bears have the upper hand.
Resistance: 4071-4081
Support: 4051, 4041
The rebound is likely to be blocked near the 4071-4081 resistance zone, so it can continue downward. Place stop-loss above 4088, with the first target at 4051; if broken, expect further decline. $XAUT $XAU Tesla and SpaceX lost about $456 billion in market value over two days, causing risk asset sentiment to falter. ZEC struggles to remain unaffected; I judge the short term to be more sideways consolidation. The four-hour and one-hour trends are upward, but there is still a pullback from the highs. The 24-hour trading volume of 147 million shows limited willingness to chase higher. The current price is 1291.85, with 1212.26 as intraday low support and 1333.52 as resistance; the top 10 order book buy-sell ratio is 17.02, with buy orders clearly dominant. The funding rate of 0.01% is slightly neutral, and the open interest of 135,000 coins shows no crowding. Strategically, a light long position can be tried on a pullback to 1275.4, with a stop loss at 1258.6 and a target of 1318.7; if it rises to around 1326.3 and faces pressure, a short position can be taken with a stop loss at 1339.8 and a target of 1288.5. Single position size should not exceed 10% and must strictly include stop loss.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you successful trading. —
$ZEC #Bitcoin under pressure, ETF net outflow of about $1.1 billion in the past 7 days
#Tesla and SpaceX lost about $456 billion in market value over two days
$ZEC On November 4th, the result landed, and BTC once rebounded above 80,000, with $320 million worth of shorts liquidated within 30 minutes. Many people took this as the start of a new market cycle. One day later, the price dropped back to 76,000.
First, let's look at what the $320 million was. It wasn't buying pressure pushing the price up; it was leveraged shorts being forcibly liquidated. A short squeeze can instantly create a big bullish candle, but it doesn't generate follow-up buying power. Once the positions are cleared, the driving force disappears, which is why the pullback was so quick.
Next, why did the price fall despite the positive news? The news itself had already been priced in before it landed; what really determines the direction is liquidity. Stablecoins are shrinking, ETFs continue to see outflows, and there is no new capital on the exchange to support this bullish candle. An unsupported rise just shifts leverage from one side to the other.
There is still a mid-term factor unfinished: the Clarity Act renegotiation. The uncertainty of the regulatory framework hasn't disappeared because of this result; it has just been postponed. In the short term, the market trades on "checks and balances," while in the mid-term, it trades on rules.
My judgment is that 76,000 is the real watershed at present, and the non-farm payroll data is the next trigger. $ETH has not shown an independent trend, indicating this is still a liquidity issue, not a sector-specific problem.
One point worth pondering: if regulatory benefits and liquidity tightening happen simultaneously, which will the market price in first? Historical experience shows liquidity always wins out first.The progress of the CLARITY Act is hindered, and the SEC's regulatory authority may expand, putting short-term pressure on the crypto market. BTC weakened accordingly. I judge that this round of decline is more of an emotional sell-off rather than a trend reversal. From the capital perspective, the 24-hour drop reached 5.2%, with a trading volume of only 16,657,000, indicating low volume and that selling pressure is not decisive; the order book's top 10 buy-sell ratio is as high as 9.57, with buyers clearly dominating depth, while the funding rate remains positive at 0.0043%, and coin-margined positions are 35,000. The bulls' willingness to pay has not retreated, and the bears' suppression seems more like a short-term raid. Strategically, one can lightly try going long at 75,865 with a stop loss at 74,835 and a target of 77,785; if the rebound faces resistance at 78,325, one can reverse to short, with a stop loss at 79,215 and a target of 76,255, keeping single position size within 20%.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wish you smooth trading. —
$BTC#《CLARITY法案》推进受阻，SEC监管权限或扩大
#《CLARITY法案》推进受阻，SEC监管权限或扩大
$BTC On the eve of the non-farm payroll release, I set a few rules for myself. If I missed anything, please help me check? 🤔
Options positions are still bullish, with BTC bullish at 56.19%, but 24-hour trading has reversed to bearish, with bearish at 53.03%. My words and actions are conflicting. Before the release, I set a few rules for myself to avoid shaking my hand and risking my principal. Tonight, winning is not about being bold, but about steady hands.
1. Mindset: No chasing orders before the release.
BTC is hovering around 76065, ETH dropped 7.41% in one day, and SOL also dropped 6.48%, which is not light. Chasing in before the direction is clear is just giving money to volatility. 📉
2. Practice: Only act when conditions are met.
I will add the first position only after BTC stands back above 77000; if it falls below 75000, I will cut half the position. I won’t move ETH until it stands back above 2300; I won’t take SOL if it can’t hold 90, and if it breaks, I accept it. 💡
3. Capital bottom line: Total position no more than 30%, single coin no more than 10%.
ETH position dropped 6.31% in one day, SOL dropped 7.86%, ZEC dropped 8.80%. The heavier the position, the more painful the hit. On the release night, first reduce leverage. If I really act, it will only be the first position; the rest will wait until after the release settles.
ETH is also conflicted: positions are bullish at 62.57%, but bullish trading is only 56.76%. There are still optimists, but the hands placing orders are hesitant. Before the 21:30 release tonight, I will follow these rules.
Rules are the only guardrail on release night. If I hold them, I will have the right to continue sitting at the table tomorrow. ✅$ZEC outperformed $BTC by 3.35 percentage points in the last 24 hours.
My first reaction wasn’t excitement, but to confirm: is this a market rebound, or are a few contracts stealing the spotlight?
① As of now, among the top 5 by 24h trading volume, $ZEC rose -1.82%, closing at 1291; $BTC -5.16%. The trading volume threshold limits the observation scope, so don’t treat this list as a thermometer for the entire market.
② The leading gainers are $BTC -5.16%, $SOL -6.30%, $ETH -7.33%. $ZEC’s strength didn’t appear synchronously in these assets, more like a local standout rather than a broad rally.
③ $XRP -9.16%, differing from $ZEC by 7.34 percentage points. Such a large gap at both ends of the same observation window means focusing only on the top can overlook volatility at the other end.
My judgment: this is useful for identifying divergence but not enough to confirm an overall rebound. The list provides trading volume but not changes in liquidity, so the quality of the rise is still unclear.
When you look at these gainers and losers lists, do you focus most on the percentage change, relative strength to BTC, or changes in trading volume? Let’s discuss in the comments #CryptoCommunityOn October 31, 2026, at 09:29 UTC, an attacker stole approximately 97.05 million CORE from 91 b14g staking orders through a single transaction. They achieved this by requesting to withdraw 0 CORE from each order. The way Core's staking contract handled zero amounts changed, and combined with the b14g contract lacking protection against this change, each "withdraw 0" request released the entire staked amount of the order. No keys were stolen, and no new code was pushed to b14g's smart contract. The attacker used the normal withdrawal path, but the input was unexpected. BTC staked through b14g was unaffected and remains on the Bitcoin chain. Only $CORE was deducted. After the attack, we suspended contract signing. On November 2, 2026, through a Core hard fork, about 70% of the stolen CORE (68.15 million) was recovered. Another approximately 12 million CORE were reported frozen on exchanges. How b14g works Core is a blockchain that rewards Bitcoin holders for locking their BTC. If CORE is staked together with BTC, the rewards are higher. This is called double staking. b14g facilitates agreements between transaction parties. BTC holders initiate orders, CORE holders fulfill orders with CORE, and both share higher rewards. Each order is an independent smart con$ETH $BTC Nonfarm Payroll Night, could it be a Black Friday?
$BTC
After $BTC surged to 81K the previous day, it quickly fell back to 76K, with bullish sentiment cooling rapidly. The market has reached a critical decision point.
This morning, a left-side long entry strategy was suggested in the 74500–75300 range, which is a strong support zone; if this range is effectively broken downward, the next target is 72500. If 75K is further lost, the 70K FVG gap will become the next target, and there is even a possibility of dropping to 69K to clear liquidity and trigger a bear trap. But remember: breaking down does not mean the trend immediately reverses; a bottom confirmation requires buying pressure to return and reclaim key levels.
Complete trading strategy:
✅ Left-side play: try longs near 74500–75250 with a stop at 74000; deeper positions can be layered in at 72800–73500; rebounds to 78000–78600 are suitable for short positions.
✅ Right-side follow-up: if volume supports a hold above 76215 and the hourly chart stays above 76250, add longs targeting 77250–78200; if volume breaks below 75236 and the rebound fails to recover, follow the trend with shorts targeting 74220–72800.
Volatility will sharply increase on Nonfarm Payroll Night; support and resistance are only references, and there is no guaranteed winning direction. The key is to wait for capital confirmation signals from the market and avoid heavy positions or stubborn holding.$OKLO
Oklo's financial report: Why should milestones be reviewed before profit growth?
The company's investor relations page lists the event schedule for November 6. The value of early nuclear energy projects depends more on licensing, engineering execution, fuel, and financing, rather than treating future letters of intent as realized sales.
If licensing and project progress show verifiable advancement, there is a basis for reducing risk discounts; if the timeline is delayed or financing dilution increases, future revenues need to be re-discounted. 🔥The crypto market getting hit this time might just be paying the price for Wall Street's AI bubble worries! From last night to today, BTC has dropped steadily to 75,200, ETH hit a low of 2,205, and over 220,000 liquidations occurred in the market. On the surface, it looks like a collective plunge in the crypto market, but digging deeper, it's a sign that global capital is starting to reassess risk.
🇺🇸After the U.S. midterm elections, the Democrats secured key seats, raising market concerns that AI regulation and data center construction might face more obstacles. Note, this doesn't mean regulations have been implemented yet, but investors are repricing uncertainty in advance. The sectors that rose the most in the past tend to see the harshest sell-offs once expectations loosen.
📉The Nasdaq dropped about 5.52% that night, semiconductor stocks plunged sharply; South Korea's KOSPI fell over 8% intraday, triggering a circuit breaker, with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix also seeing significant sell-offs. The panic in U.S. stocks didn't stop at Wall Street but spread all the way to Asian markets.
💰The size of U.S. money market funds rose to about $8.016 trillion, indicating heightened demand for safe havens. But fund flows can't be simply interpreted as all investors selling stocks to buy short-term debt; the market still needs more data to confirm.
⚡So when watching the market today, don't just focus on a single candlestick. U.S. tech stocks, the dollar, U.S. Treasury yields, and BTC spot buying are all worth observing together. Do you think this is a cooling off of the AI narrative, or a concentrated deleveraging of global risk assets? #美股遭大幅抛售：费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅 🔥The most dangerous market condition is not a rapid drop, but when you think only the crypto market is falling! Last night BTC dipped to 75200, ETH hit a low of 2205, and according to your data, over 220,000 liquidations occurred in the market. Many contract traders are still looking for internal bearish factors in the crypto space, but they overlook that the real pressure may come from a sudden shift in global market risk appetite.
🌐After the US midterm elections, the Democrats secured key seats, and the market began to worry about stricter regulations on AI data center construction and related investments. The AI sector had previously accumulated a lot of optimistic expectations, and when policy and profit outlooks become uncertain, capital will first withdraw from overvalued assets.
📉The Nasdaq dropped about 5.52% in a single day, with the semiconductor sector plunging; South Korea's KOSPI fell more than 8% intraday triggering a circuit breaker, with Samsung and SK Hynix sharply down at one point. This is no longer an adjustment in a single market but a risk sentiment spreading globally.
💵The size of US money market funds rose to about 8.016 trillion dollars, signaling a need for caution regarding safe-haven demand. For the crypto market, external market instability means rebounds may be volatile, and you shouldn’t blindly buy the dip just because prices have fallen a lot.
🛡️Today, it is more important to control your position size and reduce leverage, wait for BTC to show signs of stopping its decline and capital inflow before considering the next move. The market won’t reverse just because you want to recover your losses. Will you choose to wait and watch now, or enter after confirmation? #美股遭大幅抛售：费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅 🔥Don't just focus on that big bearish candle on BTC! The pressure behind this round of sharp declines may be coming from Washington, not from within the crypto circle. Last night BTC dipped to 75200, ETH hit a low of 2205, and according to your data, the number of liquidations in the market has exceeded 220,000. The real fear isn't how much a certain coin has dropped, but that global risk assets are cooling down simultaneously.
🧨 The US midterm election results changed market expectations. After the Democrats secured key seats, investors began to worry whether AI data center investments will face more regulatory restrictions. AI was once one of the strongest growth stories in the US stock market. Once the market doubts the investment returns and expansion speed of this sector, tech stock valuations could be repriced.
📊 The Nasdaq fell about 5.52% in a single day, with the semiconductor sector facing a fierce sell-off. The South Korean stock market dropped over 8% in early trading, triggering a circuit breaker, with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix intraday declines approaching double digits. The Japanese market is also under pressure, with panic spreading quickly from the US to Asia.
💵 What’s more noteworthy is that the size of US money market funds has risen to around 8.016 trillion dollars, indicating a clear demand for safe-haven funds. When risk appetite declines, BTC also finds it hard to stay unaffected.
🧭 Don’t rush to bottom-fish today. First, see if US tech stocks can stop falling, then observe whether BTC can reclaim key levels. Do you think this round of decline will end first in the US stock market, or will the crypto circle rebound first? #美股遭大幅抛售：费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅 🔥This time, the crypto market crash's real trigger might not be the exchanges but Washington! From last night to today, BTC once dipped to 75,200, and ETH even dropped to 2,205. According to this market data, over 220,000 people were liquidated across the entire market. Many people's first reaction is that there's a problem in the crypto space, but what truly ignited the panic was the sharp adjustment in the US stock AI sector.
□□After the US midterm elections, the Democrats secured key seats, and the market began to worry about stricter AI regulations and a slowdown in data center construction. The important narrative that had supported the US stock rise suddenly became uncertain, causing funds to retreat first from overvalued tech stocks, and risk appetite quickly cooled.
📉The Nasdaq fell about 5.52% that night, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was heavily hit, and the VIX fear index surged significantly. The South Korean market also couldn't hold up, with the KOSPI dropping over 8% intraday, triggering a 20-minute circuit breaker, and Samsung and SK Hynix sharply declined at one point.
💰Meanwhile, the US money market fund size rose to a historic high of about 8.016 trillion USD, with risk aversion sentiment heating up. It's not surprising that the crypto market followed the decline today; what is truly worth watching is that global capital is reassessing risk.
⚠️But don't rush to conclude that a bear market has arrived. Next, we need to see if the US stock market can stabilize and if funds will flow back. Do you think this is a short-term panic or the start of a new round of risk asset adjustments? #美股遭大幅抛售：费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅 The profit is just a few U, but the liquidation and holding the position is hundreds to thousands? Why is that?To trade, the first step for everyone who wants to make money is to reduce junk trades and patiently wait for volatility opportunities
Enter the market when there is a profit-loss ratio
Compound trading
Slow is fast
About Nonfarm
Actually, in this kind of volatile market, options trading is friendlier than contract leverage
This is also OKX's advantage: options have better liquidity
At high leverage, it is better to switch to options trading to avoid the risk of sharp price spikes, and choose the date one to two weeks later. The starting leverage of options is equivalent to more than 30x contracts, and leverage above 30x cannot bear a spike risk of more than 3%
At the same time, options allow multiplier strategies, rather than Martingale anti-position
For example, buying a November 20 call option for 100u at BTC 75000. If it crashes to 68000, you can buy 200u. When it rebounds, it will reduce the loss of the 100u option and gain far more than 100u on the deep option at 68000
If it is contract Martingale, opening more than 30x leverage at 75000, at 68000, it will face a 280% floating loss. At this time, adding 2x positions can only lower the average price to 70333, which may not present enough profit space
On the other hand, as a hedging tool, if holding spot, you can buy put options when expecting a decline to offset the floating loss of the spot #Anthropic November IPO plan may face uncertainties With non-farm payrolls approaching, can employment data strengthen expectations for a December rate hike?
My US stock pre-market diary (November 5, 2026): Major players are dumping SNDK, SpaceX, SOXL — should you short or lay low?
Looking at the pre-market volume leaderboard, don’t be fooled by the “slight dip in the three major indexes.” S&P futures only fell 0.06%, while SOXL is down 6.93%, SNDK down 2.93%, SpaceX down 1.06% pre-market. This is not a broad sell-off, but a concentrated fund dismantling of AI hardware plays.
The reasons for the declines in these three stocks are completely different.
SND’s revenue surged 372% last quarter, but next quarter’s guidance missed expectations, and gross margin remained flat, showing signs of peaking.
Texas policy changed, with the governor proposing a pause on new data center construction; Goldman Sachs estimates this affects 45% of expansion capacity nationwide.
SOXL is a 3x leveraged ETF, dropping from 79 to 62.36, triggering passive liquidations and stop-loss driven exits.
SpaceX’s mission was delayed due to oxidizer leakage, and its government contracts are under review.
Software platform giants did not decline in sync; funds are shifting from compute power narratives to cash flow certainty plays, not exiting the market.
SNDK -14.37%
Open your holdings list and check stop-loss levels on compute-related stocks.
$BTC $ETH $SNDK BEAT is rising, but music and computing power are not accounted for in the same way
$BEAT contract is quoted at 0.10387 USDT, up 1.0% in the past 24 hours. It first fluctuated around 0.10, then pulled above 0.103. At least this time the rise has actual price momentum, not just colors on the gain/loss board. The project incorporates game participation, music creation, and content voting into token incentives. The most interesting divergence in trading is whether these activities can make rewards be reused for consumption, rather than just being taken away as rewards.
Looking at $RENDER, quoted at 1.528 USDT, down 5.9% in the past 24 hours. Rendering tasks can be priced in fiat currency, then exchanged for the corresponding amount of tokens for payment and burning. So for the same computing power order, when the token price is low, more tokens may be consumed. Burning more tokens does not necessarily mean customer orders increase proportionally; analyzing demand here should first measure workload, then payment amount, and finally count tokens.
$SOL is quoted at 89.72 USDT, down 7.3% in the past 24 hours. Its fees are accounted for differently: half of the base fee is burned, and the priority fee goes entirely to validators. When congested, users are willing to pay more, but the additional part does not necessarily all become token burning. The base fee is charged per signature, while the priority fee relates to users competing for processing order. When total fees rise, it is necessary to distinguish whether there are simply more transactions or users are paying higher prices to queue. The former is closer to usage expansion, while the latter mainly reflects resource scarcity, resulting in quite different effects on burning.On the surface, tech stocks are bleeding, but underneath, a different script is playing out. Guess what—will tonight's crypto market crash along, or quietly find its own rhythm? Before going to bed yesterday, I glanced at the US stock market and almost thought my phone was broken. The Nasdaq dropped 5.3% in a single day, the S&P 500 fell 3.5%, marking the worst day since April 2025. The worst hit were chip stocks; the PHLX Semiconductor Index plunged 11.2%, and if this holds at close, it will be the steepest single-day drop since March 2020. The tech sector’s bloodbath is truly painful to watch. But I kept an eye on BTC’s chart and realized it’s not that simple. A sell-off of this magnitude in US stocks usually drags risk assets down with it, yet BTC’s reaction last night was relatively restrained, with no proportionate panic selling. What does this mean? It means the market is trading not just on "tech stock valuations being too high," but is repricing the entire risk appetite structure. My understanding is this: the chip stock crash superficially looks like the AI narrative is being cooled off, but deeper down, capital is starting to question whether the logic of "high capital expenditure for high growth" can still hold. If this doubt is valid, it will transmit along two paths. First, the risk premium on tech stocks will be repriced upward, capital will withdraw from high-volatility assets, and BTC will be treated as a risk asset and reduced in the short term. Second, if the market believes this is a "localized bubble deflation" rather than a "systemic recession," some capital might instead view BTC as a relatively resilient alternative position. These two paths are... Haven't seen such a big crash in the US stock market for years, down 5%, almost triggering the circuit breaker. Even on October 11 last year, the US stock market only dropped 3.5%.
Going back a bit further, on August 5, 2024, it only fell 3.6%. This time, the US stock market dropped much more than those two previous times, but the crypto market hasn't been as dramatic as before. I feel like the Asian session this morning might see another drop.
After this drop, the bull market should officially start. The frequent shakeouts are probably meant to weed out weak hands.#IREN加速转型AI云，业务收入环比增长182%
IREN's AI cloud commercialization has crossed the revenue validation threshold, marking true profitability self-sufficiency and scale realization, with the window expected within fiscal year 2027, but it heavily depends on the synchronized achievement of ARR targets and external financing.
Revenue growth is real: AI cloud quarterly revenue reached $200 million, a 182% quarter-over-quarter increase; operating ARR has hit $1 billion, with a backlog of $20.3 billion. Microsoft and NVIDIA together account for about 64%. However, the delivery timeline has been pushed back: the $4 billion ARR target has been delayed from the end of 2026 to January 2027, possibly as late as the end of February, due to Microsoft's request for network design changes.
Capital constraints are more urgent than revenue growth. Remaining capital expenditure for FY27 is $15 billion, of which $6 billion financing is yet to be secured; net loss still reaches $263 million, with SG&A, equity incentives, and financial expenses all rising simultaneously. Unlike the previous two companies that only needed to overcome a single regulatory or capacity bottleneck, IREN faces triple pressures of delivery delays, financing gaps, and cost inflation.
Only when the ARR target is met on schedule and the remaining $6 billion financing conditions are controllable, both achieved simultaneously, will IREN truly enter the "commercialization harvest period." The core variables lie not in demand (orders are already locked in) but in capital costs and delivery execution.昨晚这一跌，我一开始以为是特朗普搞事情，说他把手里的BTC全卖了。 后来翻了下，真实情况是：特朗普媒体集团把4259枚BTC转进了Crypto.com关联地址，价值约3.4亿美元。 这批币差不多是公司拿来抵押可转债的全部BTC，但只占之前披露总持仓的30%左右。 转进交易所不等于卖了。 现在没有成交记录，没有买家信息，公司也没发公告说已经砸盘。可能只是换托管地址，也可能是在处理抵押物。后面真卖也有可能，现在谁也说不准。 所以这条消息算利空，也确实吓到了不少人。但昨晚的跌，不能全算在特朗普头上。 我捋了一遍。 中期选举一结束，市场开始担心民主党会收紧AI、数据中心和加密行业的监管。芯片股涨得最猛，机构抱得最紧，自然先被卖。 英伟达跌9%，AMD跌17%，费城半导体指数跌超12%，纳指跌5.52%。机构开始降杠杆，程序化交易跟着砍，最后整个美股一起踩踏。 美股一崩，BTC也被当成高风险资产卖了。从8万美元上方砸到7.5万美元附近，大量多单爆仓，爆仓又带出新的卖盘，越砸越快。 特朗普媒体转币那条消息，确实又添了一把火。但看看当晚的盘面，市场抛售的范围远远不止BTC。芯片、存储、光通信、云计算#AAOIQ3 revenue increased by 128% year-over-year, setting a new high for six consecutive quarters
AAOI has crossed the commercialization threshold from "0 to 1," achieving truly sustainable profitable scale, with the validation window in 2027. Q3 revenue was $269.9 million, up 127.5% year-over-year, GAAP net profit was $6.3 million turning profitable, but there is still a significant gap to stable profitability.
Capacity is the biggest hard constraint: Phase II of the Texas factory was delayed by several months due to power connection and construction delays, and the 80G/1.6T monthly production capacity target by the end of 2026 was lowered from 650,000 units to over 500,000 units. Management clearly stated that "the state of demand exceeding capacity will continue until mid-2027." Profit quality remains fragile: non-GAAP gross margin was 28.7%, below its own guidance of 29%–30.5%, with a high proportion of low-margin 400G products directly dragging down results. Customer concentration risk cannot be ignored: the top ten customers account for 99% of revenue. Although the newly signed 1.6T long-term contract locks in $1 billion to $1.5 billion in revenue over three years, customers have not committed to capital investment, and actual purchase volumes have significant flexibility.
Only when capacity expansion is realized in 2027, the proportion of high-margin 1.6T increases, and the second-supplier major customer agreements are fulfilled simultaneously, will AAOI truly enter the "commercialization harvest period." The core variables are not in demand, but whether supply chain bottlenecks such as power and DSP can be cleared on schedule.In the current cycle, I pay more attention to the depth of the pullback rather than stubbornly sticking to the timeline progress.
The scariest thing about historical cycle models is not that they suddenly fail, but that they "slowly fail." By the time you wait for the model's "major bottom timing," the market may have already taken off.
Why do I focus more on the decline percentage?
Because the market structure has changed. Previously, retail investors dominated, bull markets were crazy, and bear markets crashed 80%. Now institutions have entered, ETFs are approved, and volatility has clearly decreased. In this round, Bitcoin only pulled back a maximum of 54%, and Ethereum about 70%. If you are still stubbornly waiting for an "80% drop to bottom buy," you will most likely miss out perfectly.
So my view is: don't use the old measuring stick to gauge the current market.
Time cycles can be used as a reference to help us see the big picture. But they absolutely cannot be used to precisely predict prices.
How should you operate in practice?
Focus on how much it has dropped. When the decline is deep enough and the price enters the hitting zone, start building positions in batches. Don't always think about precisely bottom-fishing.
Better to slowly buy on the left side than to go all-in at once. Save your bullets and enter in batches to survive longer in this changing market.
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 #Oklo核能供电布局距离商业化还有多远？
Oklo's actual window to achieve commercial electricity revenue is about 2–3 years, with the company's official target narrowed down to 2028. However, "2028" is an ambitious goal, not a guaranteed delivery date.
Regulatory side: The first Aurora-INL is following the DOE approval path, having completed only two of five steps; the remaining three steps are still pending; the NRC commercial operation license is also still in progress.
Fuel side: The first core depends on DOE-allocated recycled HALEU; commercial HALEU delivery, according to the letter of intent, will not start until 2029, posing a rigid constraint.
Demand side: The Meta agreement locks in up to 1.2 GW of development capacity in Ohio but clearly states that power generation capacity will form "no earlier than 2030," indicating customers are also preparing on a later timeline.
Before 2028, Oklo will not have commercial electricity revenue; isotope business may generate a small amount of revenue in the first half of 2027; the real power sales model activation will earliest occur after the first core is commissioned in 2028. The core variables lie not in demand but in whether the remaining regulatory steps and first core execution can be fulfilled on schedule.I've always been puzzled: I'm trading crypto, so why is the first thing I do every morning to check Nvidia's stock price?
Tonight is a typical example. Before the US market opened, chip stocks all rose—Nvidia up 5%, AMD 8%, SanDisk 12%. My social circle immediately started spreading "AI is back." But when I checked my holdings, $BTC was still at the same price, and $ETH was still stuck in place.
The chip stock rally is someone else's business; whether money flows into crypto is another matter. They buy computing power orders, we buy a story. There are several layers in between, and every time I get excited following along, in the end, I'm just adding drama for myself.
But I still check; I don't feel at ease if I don't.Before the U.S. stock market opens tonight, chip stocks collectively strengthened. Nvidia rose over 5%, AMD rose over 8%, and SanDisk rose over 12%. Seeing these three names together is quite interesting.
First, let's talk about the data itself. Nvidia is the largest player in this sector, up 5%; AMD is second, up 8%; SanDisk, which focuses on storage, is up 12%. The gains and sizes basically move inversely, with money flowing to areas with greater elasticity rather than blindly buying the leader. This kind of structure usually appears in the early stages of sentiment recovery, not after a trend is established.
Next, the mechanism. Liquidity is thin during pre-market hours, so the same buy orders can push prices to fluctuate more, naturally amplifying pre-market gains. This reflects expectations, not actual transactions. The real signal comes after the market opens, within the first hour, to see if the gains can hold.
Regarding crypto, the logic is straightforward. Chips are the physical foundation of the AI narrative; chip stocks strengthening means the market is willing to keep paying for computing power, raising risk appetite accordingly. At this point, $BTC and $ETH often follow for a while, and high beta assets like $SOL show even more pronounced elasticity. But the correlation is not constant; it only noticeably rises on days when the overall direction is clear.
The judgment is: the direction is somewhat bullish, but today's numbers are not enough to confirm it. It's not surprising if SanDisk's 12% pre-market gain falls back to 5% after the open.
One question remains: is this wave driven by earnings expectations, or is it simply a rebound from overselling? The sustainability of the two is on different scales. The Nasdaq always rebounds after a sharp drop. Can the US stock market make a comeback tonight after the non-farm payrolls release?
Last night, the US stock market fell heavily. The Nasdaq dropped 5.52%, the S&P 500 fell 4.36%, and the Dow Jones dropped 3.44%, all marking the largest single-day declines since April 2025.
More importantly, the Nasdaq has fallen 11.9% from its historic high on October 6, officially entering a technical correction. So, can it rebound tonight? Beichen’s conclusion first: the probability of a rebound is not low, for three reasons:
First, the drop was too sharp. A single-day drop of 5.5% is not uncommon in Nasdaq’s history; most of the time, there is a technical rebound in the following days because short-term funds need to close positions and shorts want to take profits. This kind of rebound is called an oversold technical bounce, not a reversal.
Second, there is a catalyst tonight. The US October non-farm payrolls will be released at 21:30. If the data is weak, rate cut expectations will return, giving tech stocks a reason to rebound; if the data is strong, the rebound will be weak.
Third, the level has been reached. The S&P 500 has fallen to 7353, a level with technical buying support. If it holds, there will be a rebound; if not, a new round of decline will follow.
But Beichen wants to remind you: a rebound and a reversal are two different things. The root cause of this drop is that AI valuations are too high and capital expenditures are being questioned; this is not something a single non-farm payroll report can fix. Even if there is a rebound tonight, it only provides an opportunity to reduce positions.
For the crypto market, the US stock rebound will bring some recovery to Bitcoin but the magnitude will be small. $BTC is now at 76000, with 75000 as the bottom line; if it breaks, it will follow the US stock market down.
As for trading, don’t chase the rally; wait to see the direction after the US market opens.
#非农今晚揭晓，美股大跌后市场如何押注12月加息？ $SOL No matter how strong the fundamentals are, it is difficult to have an independent rally in the current environment.
Unlike UNI, which benefits from sustained buying driven by Binance's secondary market buybacks, and PEPE, which also has OTC channels to support it; $SOL lacks this kind of passive capital backing, so its strength or weakness is highly tied to overall market sentiment.
On-chain ecosystem data is indeed solid and forms the support for long-term value, but it is not enough to counter the pressure from continuous capital outflows. Without incremental funds specifically entering the market, it is hard to go against the trend and achieve an independent rise, so short-term pressure is expected.
Tonight's non-farm payroll data is an important turning point. After significant deleveraging in the US stock market, this data will reshape market expectations for the December rate hike and directly determine the short-term direction of crypto risk assets. #非农今晚揭晓，美股大跌后市场如何押注12月加息？ $AKE US market pulled up more than 70 points, then quickly broke below the intraday new low, a move that hit both bulls and bears.The U.S. nonfarm payroll data is about to be released. The crypto market currently behaves more like a macro asset sensitive to interest rates rather than an independent asset. Bitcoin ($BTC) is currently at 76403, Ethereum ($ETH) at 2263; both have previously surged and then pulled back, with upward momentum clearly weakening before the data release. The logic chain is very clear: stronger employment data will reinforce market expectations for a December rate hike, pushing up the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, thereby suppressing risk assets. In this environment, $BTC may retest the previous low near 75500, while $ETH will test support at 2225. If the employment data is weaker, cooling rate hike expectations, the market will move in the opposite direction, with Bitcoin likely approaching 78000 and Ethereum targeting 2320. There is an asymmetrical market characteristic here: prices have already fallen from the highs, indicating the market has priced in a hawkish outcome in advance. The pullback space caused by strong data may be limited, as many weak funds have already exited; conversely, if the data disappoints, cautious funds entering the market could easily trigger a stronger rebound. From a medium-term perspective, macro data drives short-term market moves, rather than the market driving macro expectations. Rather than heavily betting on direction before the data release, it is better to wait for the data to come out and the market trend to stabilize before adjusting positions. The focus of trading needs to be on the dollar, front-end yields, and core employment data. The volatility of $BTC and $ETH mainly comes from interest rate shocks, not the employment numbers themselves. The current question is whether this nonfarm report can still move a market that has already adjusted in advance Two Lookonchain posts flag that Pump.fun just deposited 76,111 $SOL (about $6.85M) in fee revenue to Kraken. Trackers count these deposits as sales: one puts the cumulative total at 5.627M SOL (~$893M), the other at 5.554M SOL (~$882M), both at an average price near $158.8. Key points: Implied price: $6.85M over 76,111 SOL works out to roughly $90 per SOL, about 43% below the ~$158.7 average sale price. Steady cadence: this is another in a series of transfers, so the market may have largely pricSanDisk's rebound is an opportunity; Haitang has already taken a short position out of respect! 😎🔥
Family, don't think the bottom has been reached just because the price has bounced a little! With the current trend, the biggest fear is rushing in to catch the bottom after just a few rebounds, only to get trapped again.
Haitang's approach has always been clear: the storage sector hasn't shown obvious improvement yet, and this drop in SanDisk is not just a simple technical correction.
Looking at the data first, a single-day plunge of 22.26%, trading volume exceeding 30.76 million shares, far above the recent average. In just a few trading days, the stock price has pulled back significantly, and market sentiment has started to change.
Although SanDisk's Q1 revenue reached $11.03 billion, a year-over-year increase of 378%, which is indeed impressive, the market is now looking beyond just revenue growth. Consumer business revenue declined 29% quarter-over-quarter, and with Kioxia's cautious outlook on next quarter's profit growth, funds are starting to worry whether the pace of storage price increases can be maintained.
Looking again at November 5, trading volume exceeded 30 million shares, about three times the recent average. The volume-driven decline indicates a clear increase in the divergence between bulls and bears, meaning some profit-taking funds are retreating.
More importantly, the Nasdaq dropped 5.5% in one day, the semiconductor index fell nearly 12%, and the entire tech sector is under pressure. The market is beginning to reassess the investment returns of AI data centers; as risk appetite declines, stocks like SanDisk, which had significant prior gains, naturally become vulnerable.
Therefore, Haitang does not believe that a slight rebound now can change the overall weakness Conclusion first: $SOXL (3x Semiconductor ETF) dropped -38.7% in a single day yesterday, while the underlying stock $SOXX only fell 12.1%. The single-day 3x leverage matches, but over three days it doesn't: SOXX dropped -12.8% in three days, while $SOXL went from 68.17 to 40.87, a -40.0% drop, which is even worse than 3x — this is volatility decay, which eats into principal.
Perpetual contracts are even harsher. On OKX, $SOXL perpetual contracts traded 47.96 million contracts in 24 hours on November 5, with a notional value of $2.36 billion; the intraday low was 38.82, 4.4% lower than the underlying's low of 40.59 — perpetuals are worse than the underlying because they never sleep in 24 hours. Before the crash, longs were still paying funding fees, with the highest funding rate at +0.0935% per 8 hours (about 0.28% per day). The perpetual leverage cap is 20x, while the underlying itself is 3x.
This morning before the market opened, the underlying rose 19.3% (40.87 to 48.76), and the perpetual was at 48.7. The 3x ETF resets daily, so your entry price determines whether you are paying down debt or making a profit. South Korean retail investors bought $4.3 billion worth of US stocks, with media specifically naming $SOXL, but it has already dropped from its June high of 302 to 40.87, a -86.5% decline.
My approach: only trade small positions, only when the direction is clear, and don't exceed leverage limits. Do you think today's rebound is to help trapped holders get out, or is it a trap for those chasing longs?On Nov. 5, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 12.25%, the Nasdaq fell 5.52%, and the Nasdaq 100 dropped 6.4%, wiping roughly $2.5T from its market value. Three pressures converged: fears of tougher data-center scrutiny after the US midterms, weaker chip-company outlooks, and doubts that massive AI spending will deliver sufficient returns. But tighter rules or delayed permits do not automatically mean AI demand is disappearing. The real test: will hyperscalers keep spending, and can tha$BTC $ETH Is the sharp drop in US tech stocks really because the Democratic Party is tightening AI regulations? Wanwan believes this might just be an excuse for the market decline!
First, Texas not being able to build data centers doesn't mean other US states can't; AI infrastructure expansion hasn't completely stopped because of this.
Second, Democratic lawmakers proposing stronger AI regulations is currently just a policy suggestion and doesn't mean it will be implemented immediately.
What really deserves attention is why institutional funds have also seen massive sell-offs this time?
Tech giants like MU, Micron, and Nvidia have a high proportion of institutional holdings, so the entire drop can't be explained by retail panic alone.
Wanwan thinks we also need to consider the political struggles after the midterm elections. The stock market relates to the wealth of the American people and also influences public opinion for the next presidential election.
If the market continues to fall, Trump could very well take the opportunity to criticize the Democratic Party and then boost market confidence through subsequent policies.
Of course, there is currently no evidence proving Trump is colluding with institutions to dump stocks; this is just a political struggle angle worth observing.
So brothers, don't be misled by surface-level news! What really matters is when institutional funds will stop flowing out and when tech stocks will stabilize again. #美股遭大幅抛售：费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅 No crash eight times, one fatal
August 8, 2011 (S&P downgraded US sovereign rating to AA+), QQQ fell 6.02%, rebounded 4.82% the next day, rose 0.53% the third day, and rose 4.96% the fourth day.
March 9, 2020 (OPEC+ negotiation breakdown, Saudi price war, oil price dropped about 25% in one day), QQQ fell 6.95%, rebounded 5.45% the next day, rose 0.85% the third day, and turned down 8.39% the fourth day.
March 12, 2020 (WHO declared COVID-19 a global pandemic), QQQ fell 9.17%, rebounded 8.47% the next day, fell 4.52% the third day, and rose 2.72% the fourth day.
March 16, 2020 (Federal Reserve emergency cut to zero interest rate and restarted QE), QQQ fell 11.98%, rebounded 7.58% the next day, rose 4.31% the third day, and rose 4.94% the fourth day.
April 4, 2025 (reciprocal tariffs implemented, China announced countermeasures), QQQ fell 6.21%, nearly flat 0.24% the next day, fell 1.56% the third day, and rose 10.25% the fourth day.
Out of 9 times, QQQ rose the next day 8 times, the third day 6 times, and the fourth day 6 times. Brothers, I didn't expect AKE to bring some action today 😂
A 93% increase in 24 hours, a trading volume of 353 million U, bringing some long-lost excitement to the dull crypto circle.
But interestingly, it has dropped 73% in the past 7 days and 81% in the past 30 days. So I tend to see today's surge as a strong rebound after overselling, rather than the start of a new upward trend.
Here's my own judgment: I am optimistic about the market heat it brings, but I won't chase the price at this level.
The short-term increase is too large, profit-taking could happen anytime, and previous trapped chips need to be digested. Especially after surging near 0.005, if it can't effectively break through with volume, a pullback or even a quick retreat would be normal.
My strategy is clear: don't chase this big bullish candle, wait for a pullback to see if it holds. If it can stabilize at key levels, then consider if there's a second chance. If it breaks support with volume, then just wait and see.
I'd rather earn less than buy the dip at the peak of excitement for others. 😂
#非农今晚揭晓，美股大跌后市场如何押注12月加息？ $AKE $XLU
Can the electricity consumption narrative of data centers offset the interest rate sensitivity of utilities?
Tonight's employment data may reprice long-term interest rates. New electricity demand requires construction and financing; capital expenditures, regulatory returns, and cost recovery cannot be skipped. Increased demand may initially translate into financial pressure.
If projects are approved for cost recovery and financing structures are sound, long-term returns become clearer; if capital expenditures expand faster than confirmed returns, the industry narrative may also suppress short-term cash flow.$SNDK Do not chase the highs, wait to fill the gap before taking action｜Direction: rebound, but not a reversal Yesterday's candle was a typical panic sell-off: volume tripled, closed at the lowest point, RSI 24; today's pre-market 10% rebound is a short-covering bounce. But 806 is just a parabolic market retracing to the 71% level, the next real support is at 647 (78.6% retracement). If it gaps up tonight then fills the gap and falls back below 860, it's a standard one-day rebound, don't mistake it for a bottom. Why did $SNDK drop so sharply (three reasons combined) 1. Cycle peak expectation, not a performance issue
Q3 revenue 11.031 billion (YoY +378%), gross margin 85.1%, EPS 49.51 all exceeded expectations, guidance also exceeded expectations. But the market is buying the "second derivative of growth" — NAND average price QoQ: Q2 +70% → Q3 +20% → Q4 guidance ≈ 0%. The price hike engine has stalled. 2. Kioxia's guidance is the key trigger
On 10-30 Kioxia announced revenue of 2.48 trillion yen, next quarter guidance about 2.5 trillion — almost no QoQ growth. SanDisk and Kioxia are joint partners producing NAND, the market directly took this guidance as the top signal for the entire NAND cycle. 3. Sector-wide sell-off on 11-05
Tre$ETH The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plummeted 12.25%, with all 30 component stocks declining. SanDisk dropped over 22%, Micron and Western Digital fell more than 17%, Nvidia declined 9.26%, and Tesla dropped nearly 11%.
This is not an ordinary post-election fluctuation; it is a concentrated liquidation triggered by political signals targeting the AI capital expenditure narrative.
🩸 Why did BTC crash along with it? Because this time its role is as an "AI proxy."
BTC fell sharply from above 81,000 to around 75,600, dropping over 5% in 24 hours, with more than 210,000 liquidations across the network, 90.9% of which were long positions.
But here is a key detail: the stock side’s decline was even more severe than BTC itself. This indicates that the selling pressure mainly came from leveraged liquidations on the stock side, not structural sell-offs by on-chain holders. There were no signs of major whales dumping, surging net inflows to exchanges, or massive stablecoin redemptions—signals that would indicate fundamental deterioration in crypto itself.
What really happened is that hedge funds were forced to liquidate long AI positions and needed the fastest liquid asset to cover margin calls. The 30-day rolling correlation coefficient between BTC and the Nasdaq 100 is in the 0.6-0.69 range, historically high. When AI stocks crashed, BTC was liquidated as a high-beta AI proxy. It’s not that crypto had bad news; BTC was treated as an ATM amid liquidity shocks.
$BTC $SOL
#美股遭大幅抛售：费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅 $TAO
I don't really consider the term "post-quantum wallet" as a reason to buy tomorrow. The wallet launched this time by Bittensor supports post-quantum signatures and automatic key rotation, which indeed addresses long-term security, but there is still a long way to go from product feature launch to user migration and network adoption.
TAO spot is about $225.3, 24-hour low at $212.02; perpetual positions are about $15.14 million, funding rate about 0.0061%, slightly higher than common benchmarks. It dropped about 4% in one day, but the position leverage is not heavy, at least it doesn't look like derivatives funds are crowded on one side for now.
I prefer to record this as a technical advancement rather than write it as token demand. Whether the wallet can truly be used by the ecosystem depends later on integration and migration data; the announcement itself ends here for now.
#美股遭大幅抛售：费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅 #非农今晚揭晓，美股大跌后市场如何押注12月加息？ After the recent sharp decline in the US stock market, how is the market betting on the December rate hike tonight? The prior drop in US stocks has already priced in high interest rate pressure and a valuation correction in the AI sector. The focus of capital competition is on tonight's non-farm payrolls, especially the two key indicators of new employment and wage growth. Currently, the interest rate market maintains a relatively high probability of a December rate hike, but there is significant divergence. Traders are on one hand worried that employment resilience supports inflation, while on the other hand wary that continued stock market weakness will force the Federal Reserve to be cautious.
If non-farm payrolls and hourly wages significantly exceed expectations, it indicates the labor market remains hot, inflation decline is hindered, and the probability of a December rate hike will quickly rise. US Treasury yields will increase, and growth stocks, crypto, and gold and silver will continue to face pressure. If the data significantly weakens, combined with a rise in unemployment, rate hike expectations will cool rapidly, and the market will trade on a "pause in tightening," giving tech stocks and gold a recovery window.
If the data falls within the expected range, the market is likely to fluctuate repeatedly, and the Federal Reserve will continue to remain on the sidelines without giving clear signals. Attention should also be paid to revisions of previous data; a downward revision indicates actual employment is weaker, while an upward revision will amplify hawkish interpretations.
The recent sharp drop in US stocks has already released some pessimism, but if non-farm payrolls exceed expectations, selling pressure will continue; only sustained cooling in employment can alleviate valuation pressure caused by high interest rates. $BTC $ETH $SNDK #非农今晚揭晓，美股大跌后市场如何押注12月加息？
Tonight, the non-farm payrolls are likely to slightly exceed market expectations, with the highest probability that the unemployment rate remains at 4.2%. Overall, this indicates a moderate recovery in employment but not yet overheating.
ADP has grown for two consecutive months, and initial jobless claims are near historic lows, indicating that U.S. companies have not significantly expanded layoffs. However, new hiring remains slow, so I believe a moderate non-farm payrolls figure slightly above expectations is more reasonable than a strong increase of over 200,000. ADP should not be directly used as a forecast for the official non-farm payrolls.
For investors preparing to watch stocks like $SOXL, $AAOI, and $IREN tonight, I think the ideal outcome is an increase of 50,000–80,000 in non-farm payrolls, unemployment holding at 4.2%, and wage growth not exceeding expectations. This neither implies a significant downturn in the job market nor further strengthens expectations for Fed rate hikes.
But don't overlook next Tuesday (November 10) when the U.S. October CPI is released: if employment is moderate tonight and inflation is also below expectations next week, it is more likely to create macro conditions for a sustained rebound in tech growth stocks.In a recovering market, the ones that rise first are not necessarily the ones that can hold the money
$BTC has returned above $81,000, with mainstream coins moving first.
Outsiders might think the one that rises along is the most worth buying.
What does this number mean: protocol revenue buyback and burn, which means the project uses the money it earns to buy back its own tokens from the market.
The bought-back tokens are directly invalidated, reducing the circulating supply.
The money doesn't go into anyone's pocket; it disappears into thin air.
Who places orders here: only tokens with real income have the money to do this.
Tokens pushed up solely by sentiment rise quickly but have nothing to support them when cooled down.
Looking backward, whether buybacks can be sustained depends on income, not on price increase.
Rising early does not equal holding on.
Buyback money comes from income, and income does not increase because of a single bullish candle.
#比特币承压，ETF近7日净流出约11亿美元 $BTC When a hardware wallet has issues, it's often not because the private key was stolen, but because the App fails first.
Keystone's Nexus App recently experienced a network attack on some of its services, causing some users to be unable to use it normally. The team stated that server security has been strengthened and no user assets or personal information have been found to be affected so far. The attack targeted the server side, not the private key itself.
What’s more notable is the dual-platform timing. Version 1.3.7 is already available on Google Play, while the iOS version is still waiting for App Store review. Android can be patched immediately, but Apple users have to wait in line, creating a window of risk.
The official fallback is: before the iOS version goes live, users can switch to third-party wallets supported by Keystone for signing. The device remains usable; only the cloud-based supporting service is interrupted.
The original purpose of buying a hardware wallet is to take trust back from exchanges into your own hands. The private keys for $BTC and $ETH are indeed stored offline on the device, but broadcasting, querying, firmware, and supporting Apps are all still connected to the internet. The keys are locked in a safe, but the access control system is on someone else’s server.
The official also specifically reminds users to confirm the developer as Yanssie HK Limited before installation. Such a prompt is rare and indicates that counterfeit packages do exist.
The real question is not whether coins were lost this time, but: when the supporting App is completely unusable, can you still sign a transaction?Regarding the upcoming 38u operation
Currently, BTC support is between 76,000-74,000. There's no need to segment levels like 75,500 or 75,000 during this sideways phase as most people do.
The possibility of a spike down to break 72,000 cannot be ruled out. For the time being, the 74,000 level is a strong 2-day moving average support and also the short-term holder cost line support. If this range is broken, it will face a chain reaction of stop-losses from short-term holders leading to a further decline.
Regarding non-farm payrolls
With the realization of the rate hike expectations, BTC usually rebounds about 30%, which is around 78,000. If there is a downward spike and a V-shaped recovery, consider taking profits in batches between 77,000 and 78,000.
Currently, based on funding rates, the annualized funding rate has dropped from about 10% this morning to around 3%, indicating a significant withdrawal of long positions.
For small capital positions, consider building positions in batches to avoid missing out and to prevent liquidation from high leverage all at once.
This 38u will open a 10u position at 76,000 with 20x leverage,
Add the first 10u at an accelerated spike near 74,000, and in an extreme spike to 72,000, add the remaining 18u.Key variables tonight: Three scenarios for Nonfarm Payrolls
ADP has already signaled a slightly stronger trend: October ADP new jobs at 86,000, higher than the expected 69,000; ISM Services Employment Index rose to 51.4, expanding for the second consecutive month; ISM Services Price Index remains high at 73.0, inflationary pressure has not truly eased. Market expectations for a December rate hike have reached about 79%.
Scenario Conditions Potential impact on BTC
🟢 Mildly weak/close to expectations (most favorable) New jobs near 65,000, cooling wages Soft landing narrative strengthened, Fed no need for excessive tightening, most favorable for risk assets, bullish
🟡 Significantly above expectations (bearish but limited impact) Strong employment + strong wages Reinforces rate hike pricing, short-term pressure, but this logic is familiar to the market, impact may be relatively limited, watch for rebound after initial sell-off
🔴 Significantly below expectations + rising unemployment Large employment shortfall Beware market shifting from "rate worries" to "growth worries," US stocks may continue to fall, BTC also under pressure
Key reminder: Do not chase the first candle before and after data release, wait for 15-minute/1-hour candle close confirmation, use light positions, low leverage, and preset stop losses. Nonfarm Payrolls is the only catalyst tonight capable of breaking the stalemate of "weak recovery after a sharp drop." $BTC $ETH $SNDK #比特币承压，ETF近7日净流出约11亿美元