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11.6 SOL Morning Analysis:
SOL is gradually selling off in batches around 90.0/92.0, targeting 87.0/85.0
The SOL market surged to 98.16 but faced resistance and weakened, then continuously declined to test the low at 88.24 before stabilizing and rebounding, forming a corrective consolidation structure after a major drop.
After the new low was hit in the downward move, the selling pressure eased, with support at the low level, and the rebound gradually lifted the lows, indicating a recovery phase after the major drop. There is no rush to chase the rebound, nor to hastily follow the trend; wait for structural confirmation before looking for suitable signals.
The market changes rapidly, and the trend can break the current rhythm at any time. Trading must control positions carefully; without clear signals, remain on the sidelines. $SOL #非农今晚揭晓，美股大跌后市场如何押注12月加息？ $BTC delivery hasn't arrived yet, staring at the big coin's trend, I quietly swallowed my saliva. It dropped straight from 81199 to 75143, this roller coaster is indeed fierce, but now it's stuck around 76140, about to stir things up again.
【Hardcore Review】
Switching to the 15-minute chart, MACD formed a golden cross below the zero line (DIF -60.4, DEA -107.4), and the price is just stuck between MA20 and MA60. Looks like an oversold rebound, but it's actually a classic "dead cat bounce."
【The Battle Behind the Data】
Looking at the data in Chart 2, I gasped sharply—bulls account for as high as 73.61%, long-short ratio 2.79!
What does this mean? Retail investors are so bearish, yet they're all frantically bottom-fishing! Combined with the saying we often use, "the short is the long, the long is the short," this 73% bulls are "human fuel" in the eyes of the big players. From behavioral finance perspective, this is loss aversion; retail investors always think the bottom is reached, but the main force will never let so many people break even together.
【My Operation Plan】
This position is extremely awkward now, neither up nor down.
1. Absolutely no chasing shorts: 15-minute MACD just formed a golden cross, there's still room for a short-term rebound, don't get trapped halfway up the mountain.
2. Patiently wait for the right side: keep a close eye on the upper MA60 (76735) and previous resistance levels. As long as the rebound is weak or a small-scale bearish divergence appears, that's my best chance to short with the trend.
3. No shooting the eagle without seeing the rabbit: as long as this 73% bulls are not completely crushed, the big coin won't rise.#美股遭大幅抛售：费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅
$BTC $ETH $SOXL
Recently, the US stock market experienced a sharp sell-off, with the technology growth sector weakening across the board and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index closing significantly lower. It recorded the largest single-day drop since March 2020, marking a deep correction in the current strong rally of A-chip stocks.
This major decline was triggered by multiple negative factors resonating simultaneously. First, strong US economic data quickly cooled market expectations for rate cuts, US Treasury yields rebounded, and high-valuation technology and semiconductor sectors came under clear pressure, with capital fleeing from high levels. Second, the previously hot AI industry chain showed signs of demand slowdown, leading top companies to issue earnings guidance below expectations, and the market’s optimistic sentiment for long-term high growth in A-chip stocks rapidly faded.
On the market front, leading chip stocks collectively plunged, AI chips, memory chips, and computing power-related stocks led the Nasdaq decline, and panic spread quickly, driving a sharp pullback across the entire technology sector. High-valuation growth stocks that had risen continuously on A-chip themes faced valuation corrections and bubble clearing.
This sharp drop signifies a complete style shift in the US tech market. The one-sided rally has ended, and the sector has entered a phase of high volatility and adjustment. This round of correction also delivers an important warning to the market: thematic speculation cannot support stock prices long-term, and valuations detached from fundamentals will inevitably return to rational levels. Investors must respect market risks and be cautious about chasing highs. The market often says that the darkest times are usually just before dawn. Brother Babai and many top influencers have already cut losses and exited. Recently, the market has been in a one-sided sell-off, hardly giving any chance for a rebound or pullback.
Anthropic is deeply tied to the storage and semiconductor supply chains, with strategic investors including SK Hynix and Micron. If Anthropic's upcoming earnings exceed expectations, it could help restore market demand expectations for HBM and AI storage, leading to a sector recovery; conversely, if earnings fall short, it will further suppress the sector's valuation.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index recorded its largest single-day drop since March 2020. SOXL, SanDisk, and SK Hynix all experienced violent sell-offs, with concentrated selling pressure released. Many bulls couldn't withstand the pressure and chose to cut losses. In the short term, market sentiment has entered an extreme panic zone.
From the market perspective, after continuous sharp declines, there is a slight short-term resistance rebound. Currently, it is a phase of concentrated panic selling.
Based on market characteristics, there is a probability of entering a bottoming range, but it cannot be confirmed as the bottom yet.
Market panic selling and capital hesitancy to enter are common features of a bottom,
but risks remain: AI regulation and expectations of reduced capital expenditure will continue to suppress the sector.
Don't be overly frightened by consecutive large bearish candles; you can observe in batches and selectively buy on dips rather than going all-in at once.
The long-term logic of the semiconductor storage sector has not been completely disproven. This round of sharp declines is mainly due to emotional stampede and valuation cuts, but also be aware that if AI capital expenditure continues to be downgraded, fundamentals will remain under pressure.
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 Pushing patients who haven't had preoperative consultations directly into the operating room where cardiopulmonary bypass is ongoing—that's the harsh reality most newcomers face when entering this market.
The essence of this announcement is a collective preoperative education. It calls on those who have already undergone thoracotomy to lay out complications, nights of suture breakage, and the panic in the postoperative ICU on the table. I've practiced cardiac surgery for twenty years, and what I value most has never been reports of successful cases, but rather mortality and complication conferences—beautiful presentations only prove the surgeon's steady hands; only failed cases can reveal the true heartbeat curves.
But the biggest misjudgment of novices is treating "there are no stupid questions here" as a disclaimer. On the operating table, a silent assistant is more fatal than bleeding. Asking questions is preoperative assessment, lab tests, coronary angiography; not asking is like going on stage with an undiagnosed aortic dissection—once blood pressure fluctuates, there is no window for rescue.
Look again at the linkage between tokenized US stock targets and their parent stocks, like a xenografted heart valve: homologous in hemodynamics, but rejection comes from the clock. The parent stock's open and close are regular sinus rhythms, but on-chain it's 24-hour atrial fibrillation with no true diastolic phase. Placing stop-loss orders on the other side at night is like waiting for a defibrillator to charge during cardiac arrest—before the shock, the myocardium is already irreversibly damaged.
The price crash is just a symptom. What really needs biopsy is perfusion: ventricular wall thickening caused by leverage, decline in flow perfusion pressure, autonomic nervous system disorder under extreme market conditions. The community inviting top traders for Q&A is like senior doctors teaching juniors, but teaching can never replace intraoperative judgment—the hands are yours, the forceps are yours.
The most dangerous patient is never the one who asks questions, but the one who says "I'm fine" while their ECG already shows ST-segment elevation.
Those who survive on stage are not the ones who ask the most questions, but those who hear blood flow changes before the monitor alarms. #newherestarthere$BTC After the US midterm elections landed this time, the market initially responded positively because the uncertainty about who would be in power was eliminated, so it rose first. But then the market started to do the math: the Democrats won big, and Trump's Republican Party lost both the House and Senate. The new Congress tends to end the Middle East war quickly, so oil prices plummeted; at the same time, the new Congress also tends to reduce AI data center construction, so US AI hardware stocks weakened. The result is that the election only solved "who is in power," but did not solve "what will sustain economic growth next." The market quickly shifted from the post-uncertainty rally to concerns about weakening investment expansion and aggregate demand. Growth concerns amplified, and the market turned down again. Bitcoin's short-term intraday support is near 75,000, with short-term resistance near 77,000.
$SNDK The essence of this storage plunge is that the chain "AI data center unlimited expansion → storage permanently scarce → price increases perpetual" was simultaneously cut by political risks and capital expenditure concerns. SanDisk, because of its high data center revenue proportion and valuation based on optimistic supercycle assumptions, became the most concentrated outlet for emotional venting. As for whether this is a deep correction within the supercycle or a signal of the cycle peaking, there is still significant divergence. JPMorgan still expects that by 2027, AI capital expenditure by hyperscale cloud providers will increase to $1.5 trillion. The long-term demand story is not dead, but the market clearly requires evidence that "commitments turn into construction sites" before it is willing to reprice.$SNDK At 11 AM, watching SanDisk's trend, I wiped a cold sweat. Just yesterday I shouted "SanDisk at 800," and last night it precisely dropped to 793.7! But today's deep V-shaped rebound pulled back directly to 876, a rise of over 5%, practically stuffing flies into the bears' mouths.
【Hardcore Review and Theoretical Deduction】
From the 1-hour chart in Figure 1, the MACD stubbornly formed a golden cross below the zero line, with the red bars expanding. From the perspective of Chan theory, this is a "central pivot pullback confirmation" triggered after breaking below the 1000-level pivot and rapidly probing downward. But this is definitely not a reversal, because the MA20 and MA60 above (838/866) still press down like Mount Tai, diverging downward.
What makes my scalp tingle is the data in Figure 2: the proportion of long positions soared to 87.39%, with a long-short ratio of 6.93!
Combined with behavioral finance, this is an extreme case of "loss aversion" causing collective blind bottom-fishing. After the drop to 793 last night, retail investors all thought "it's the bottom" and crazily caught the falling knife. How could the main force, seeing this 87% fat meat, directly push the price up? This rally is very likely to fatten these longs and simultaneously wash out the floating short positions chased last night.
【My Operation and Reflection】
Looking at my own operation marks in Figure 1, that -7.32 stop loss is vivid in my mind. This is the lesson! The violent rebound after an oversell is the most deadly. According to Kelly formula position management, I admitted my mistake and exited.
Now I'm not in a hurry, strictly executing right-side trading. I keep a close eye on the 900 whole number resistance and moving average pressure above; as long as the rebound is weak, in operation $BEAT Damn, is it still not dropping? 0.1 has been stable for so long. The 4-hour moving average is very steady. Is it still going to surge? Should I keep holding the position?
OKX BEAT Long-Short Ratio (Core Structure)
Retail investors: ↓ 2.06 → Bullish
Number of large holders: ↓ 1.30 → Bullish
Large holders' positions: ↓ 0.88 → Bearish
Main force inclination: Bearish
On-chain (Arkham) observation
Major holdings are highly concentrated: TransparentUpgradeableProxy address holds about 30%, multiple Proxy addresses together hold over 50% of the supply.
Gate cold wallet, Genesis Sale Proxy, etc. also have significant holdings.
Around the 1st of each month, about 17–22M BEAT (about 5–6% of total circulation) unlock, involving Community, Advisors, Foundation, Team.
There will be continuous pressure in December and January.
Project progress: There is a token burn mechanism, but supply pressure remains
$BTC $ETH #美股遭大幅抛售：费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅 The structural transition layer fears not the load, but the change of the general contractor. The period from the end of 2026 to January 2027, during the U.S. Congress handover, is a vacuum window where the global risk asset skyscraper is being stripped of its formwork, but the new supervisor has not yet arrived.
The Democrats have taken both chambers, but will not officially take office until January 2027. In our industry terms: the blueprint changes have been issued, but the construction orders have not yet taken effect—this transitional phase is where structural accidents are most likely to occur. The Trump administration still retains the option to take further military action against Iran during this window; this is a temporary edge support, usually inconspicuous, but once political pressure exceeds limits, it becomes the stress concentration point of the entire building. After the new Congress takes office, tightening the bolts on Iran policy through appropriations review and oversight hearings will gradually replace this temporary edge support with formal components: the structure becomes more stable, but the construction pace slows, uncertainties increase, and scheduling becomes more difficult.
I have reviewed blueprints for thirty years, never trusting renderings, only three things: foundation survey reports, reinforcement drawings, and third-party testing data. Applied to the U.S.-Iran situation, the foundation is the physical supply of oil and the Strait of Hormuz, the reinforcement is the actual engagement of congressional appropriations and oversight, and the testing is the market’s pricing depth of tail risks. If any of these three lacks strength, no matter how beautiful the facade, it is just a curtain wall blown by the wind.
Now consider products like $XPL that turn U.S. stocks into on-chain prefabricated components and cross-border hoisting—the prefabricated approach itself is advanced, with short construction times and quick turnover, but the Achilles' heel of prefabrication has never been the components, but the joints. The joints are the clearing paths, compliance reviews, and market-making depth. When geopolitical tremors occur, the first to fail is never the main structure, but the welds at the joints. So when I evaluate it, I don’t look at how many meters the narrative layer rises, but at the residual load-bearing capacity under severe volatility: slippage, spreads, order book depth—these are its actual measured deflections, the true instruments to read whether this building will crack under dynamic loads.
The handover period is not a market window, but a structural verification window. Treating this period as a peak construction season for adding floors is equivalent to piling rebar directly on an uninspected floor slab. #uscongressiranoutlookLast night, the Nasdaq dropped nearly 5%, and the semiconductor index plunged 11%, causing a lot of panic, but it's really unnecessary.
$SNDK $SKHYNIX
Let's first look at the most critical indicator—gold. Recently, there was talk that when the stock market falls, people sell gold to cover margin calls. However, this time, despite the Nasdaq dropping so much, gold remained completely steady, directly indicating that there is no liquidity crisis at all; it's just a normal market valuation reset.
Such volatility is very common in the history of the US stock market. In 2020 and 2022, a 10% drop was routine. Tesla also experienced consecutive sharp declines back then, and Luckin Coffee and New Oriental even fell 90% in a single day. This time, the Nasdaq dropping 5% is really nothing. The AI market has been rising for over two years, accumulating a large amount of profit-taking positions, so an adjustment is very normal.
Many people blame the drop on the Democrats controlling both houses of Congress, thinking it will affect Trump's AI infrastructure bill, but this is an overinterpretation. Even if Trump fully controlled Congress, the bill's progress would face resistance. If he wants to push it through quickly, he would likely resort to unconventional means like emergency powers and vetoes. The bipartisan struggle's impact on AI's long-term trend is far less significant than people think.
#美股遭大幅抛售：费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅 #AAOI高速光模块放量，Q3财报能否超预期？ The high-altitude trough of December rate hike expectations is descending, the nonfarm cloud cluster has yet to land, and the wind shear on the U.S. Treasury yield curve has already sounded the alarm. Employment data from Automatic Data Processing, the services employment sub-index from the Institute for Supply Management, and initial jobless claims—all three sets of sounding data—have simultaneously returned: U.S. labor conditions show marginal improvement, with warm and moist airflows thicker than previous rounds but still insufficient to declare the entire atmosphere clear. The November 5 U.S. stock sell-off swept through risk appetite like a dry cold front, causing the dew point to drop sharply and visibility to shrink, forcing the market to revise the December rate hike probability and subsequent interest rate path. The October employment report will be released on November 6 at 13:30 UTC, with forecasts indicating about 60,000 new jobs and an unemployment rate holding at 4.2%; if this data deviates from the consensus forecast mean, expectations for Federal Reserve rates, U.S. Treasury yields, and the dollar index will undergo a pressure gradient realignment.
From a meteorological perspective, Automatic Data Processing employment and the ISM services employment sub-index are near-surface observations, initial jobless claims are hourly automated stations, and October nonfarm payrolls are the official sounding. Short-term improvements do not equal a seasonal transition, especially after the November 5 cold front passage, when pressure rises but sea temperatures remain high, making it easy for convective fluctuations to develop again in the boundary layer. The tokenized U.S. stock asset $XPL is on the same weather map: it follows the U.S. stock risk air mass and is not an isolated microclimate; when the dollar and Treasury yields rise, the liquidity thickness of the tokenized market is thinned by wind shear, and volatility rapidly expands like the top of a cumulonimbus cloud.
Current radar echoes show employment improvement is only a shallow high-pressure ridge; the cold pool left by the November 5 sell-off remains, and risk appetite recovery requires confirmation over two consecutive forecast periods. If October employment data is around 60,000 and the unemployment rate holds at 4.2%, December rate hike expectations will not immediately clear, but gusts in the dollar and yields will intensify, and $XPL’s linked elasticity will depend on the main U.S. stock air mass rather than its own cloud system. If new jobs are significantly stronger, the interest rate path’s front will quickly push south, and tokenized asset prices are likely to first reflect discounts and liquidity gaps; if data is weak, cold air may instead supply warm moist air to rate cut expectations, but risk appetite may not recover simultaneously. The data release timing is a strong convective window; bid-ask spreads, trading depth, and volatility surfaces will all realign simultaneously, with shorter forecast validity leading to more frequent revisions.
Forecasters only look at soundings, echoes, and ensemble probabilities, making no promises of clear or rainy weather. That radar echo has not yet landed, but the wind shear is already enough to tear open a gap in December expectations. #usjobsdecemberratewatch 涨的时候最怕看到的，不是利空，是没人接棒。 这波反弹，到底是风险偏好回来了，还是只是一场空头葬礼？ 很多人把 BTC 从 75,600 拉到 81,100、24 小时涨超 4%、全网市值回到 2.7 万亿，当成"情绪回暖"的信号。我第一眼也差点信了，直到把跨市场那条线摊开看，才发现剧本不太对。 先看最扎眼的反差：美国现货 BTC ETF 连续三天净流出，累计 11.57 亿美元，光 BlackRock 的 IBIT 就撤了 7.34 亿，占了六成多。价格在涨，机构却在减仓。这不是风险偏好扩散的样子，更像是有人在用空头的尸体铺一条看起来很美的路。 数据一：24 小时内全网衍生品平仓 9.36 亿美元，其中空头被埋 5.33 亿，BTC 单独爆掉约 3.7 亿空单。听着很爽对吧？但真正的问题在后面。 数据二：价格涨 4%，未平仓合约 OI 反而缩了 4.36%，掉到 3,477 亿。翻译成人话就是，涨的过程里仓位在减少而不是增加。新多没进来，老空在平仓离场。同时成交量放大 44.37%，量增仓减，这不是建仓，是清场。 数据三：ETF 三天流出的节奏是 6.43 亿、3.99 亿、1.16 "Lifetime profit" does not equal immediate safety. I want to use this message to explain the difference between position size and principal to newcomers. An Hyperliquid trader monitored by Onchain Lens lost $8.01 million in 30 days but still has a lifetime cumulative profit of $9.18 million; currently holding leveraged long stock positions worth $32.91 million, with an unrealized loss of $7.92 million.
📌 Dividing 7.92 by 32.91 gives about 24%, but you can't say his "principal lost 24%": position value is not the same as margin, and without account equity, leverage, and other info, you can't infer the liquidation distance. I believe the most useful takeaway from this message is risk education, not using the profit leaderboard to pick copy-trading targets.
He made $1.21 million shorting $BTC two hours ago, but that doesn't prove the stock position is safe: different positions carry different risks, and one profit won't automatically offset other exposures. Newcomers often mistake "still making money" for "able to hold through." What else do you not understand: how to distinguish position value from margin, or how to interpret liquidation distance? Leave a comment to discuss.#ModernaQ3财报将揭示疫苗销售趋势
Moderna's core dilemma in Q3: the tension between short-term pressure on vaccine sales and long-term valuation transformation toward oncology.
COVID-19 vaccines remain the foundation, but with declining vaccination rates in the U.S., growth shifts to international long-term agreements in the UK, Canada, and Australia. The U.S. revenue share dropped from about 62% to 50%, only partially offsetting structural contraction. Although the flu vaccine is approved, it missed the U.S. procurement contract cycle, so substantial revenue is expected only in the second half of 2027; RSV faces mature products from GSK and Pfizer, limiting incremental growth.
The real pricing anchor lies in costs and pipeline. R&D guidance is about $2.9 billion, declining for three consecutive years, with a cash balance of $4.7–5.2 billion providing a safety cushion. The melanoma Phase III tumor vaccine co-developed with Merck reduces the risk of recurrence or death by 42%. If the data is realized, valuation could shift from a "vaccine cycle" to an "oncology platform option."
Conclusion: The key in Q3 is not sales exceeding expectations, but controllable cash burn and maintaining full-year guidance, supporting cash breakeven by 2028.The darkest moment for AI trading: your diversified investments might just be the same trade
After the plunge in US stocks, the Korean market opened with a circuit breaker, and the night session saw a slight rebound. Global funds are collectively reducing AI holdings, and the most painful truth is: diversification suddenly fails during a crash.
Overnight, SanDisk fell 22%, Micron dropped over 17%, Nvidia declined about 9%; today, South Korea's KOSPI fell more than 8% within just 3 minutes of opening, triggering a circuit breaker.
Buying Nvidia, Micron, along with Samsung, Hynix, and optical modules, seemingly spanning multiple markets, is actually betting on the same assumption: AI infrastructure investment will continue to grow rapidly. Once this assumption is shaken, no matter how long the portfolio list is, it’s just different versions of the same trade.
Selling pressure thus transmits across markets. Even funds controlling volatility that still favor AI can only reduce positions first. Long-term optimism and short-term selling can happen simultaneously.
The slight rebound in the night session is mostly due to oversold support and short covering, which does not indicate that institutional selling has ended. Next, the market needs to differentiate strength: if quality companies stabilize first, panic can be considered to have subsided; if prices still rise and fall uniformly, the overall increase or decrease in AI exposure still dominates the market.
True diversification depends on what the assets earn from. Holding ten stocks might still be a bet on just one future. 7 million USD, let me pour some cold water first: this money goes into the company's financing account, not the buying pressure of stablecoin-related assets. Takenos, this Latin American stablecoin financial platform, completed an additional seed round of financing, with total funding reaching 12 million USD. My bearish stance is not on the business direction itself, but on interpreting the financing news directly as a reason for the sector's price increase.
I am stuck on two points. First, financing proves that someone is willing to take early-stage risks, but it does not prove to users that the product is good; since no operational data was provided, I won't fill in the narrative of "demand explosion" for it. Second, there is still a value transmission gap between company development and benefits to token holders. If the platform uses stablecoins to build its services, the profits may remain on the business side and do not necessarily translate into demand for related assets. This is my reasoning, not a confirmed result from this news.
Of course, the bulls might be right; early financing can indeed help the product gain ground. If we later see users continuously using the product and business revenue covering service costs, I will raise my evaluation of the platform; if we want to judge the token price, we need to see where the demand actually flows. Don't rush to get excited, nor dismiss the application just because of bearishness. Regarding whether this financing can drive the stablecoin sector's market, are you bullish or bearish? Share your reasons why you believe the funds can or cannot be transmitted.SanDisk dropped by half, but that doesn't mean it's half the price
$SNDK fell from 2382 to 969, cutting the price by more than half.
What does this number mean: it's not just the price that dropped, but three supports loosened simultaneously.
Demand expectations were pushed down, the price increase range shrank from 70% to just over 20%, and consumer-end revenue dropped 29% month-over-month.
What was actually done: first put in a little over 10% position from 960 to 1000, if it falls below 960 then look at 900 to 920.
The third batch is not rushed, waiting for the data center business to cover the consumer side.
Positions are added step by step, not all at once.
A big drop just means a big drop, not a bottom.
#美股遭大幅抛售：费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅 $SNDK Let me first do a straightforward calculation: how much are the saved fees, how much does redemption cost, and can the exit be smooth? Without understanding these, even if it carries the label of being on-chain, I wouldn't feel it's more cost-effective.
Uniswap announced the launch of the first permissioned asset on AMM. GromaCorp, through v4's Hook, directly integrates real estate issuance and redemption into the protocol and performs compliance checks at the protocol level. However, Groma's tokenized securities are only available to qualified U.S. investors and users outside the U.S.
I think this is a positive development for compliant asset integration, but it doesn't mean ordinary players have a guaranteed profit path. Embedding compliance checks into the protocol helps reduce onboarding friction; however, participation has thresholds, and being on AMM doesn't guarantee sufficient liquidity. If redemption is not smooth, on-chain transactions, no matter how convenient, are hard to trust. I would first carefully review the eligibility, fees, and redemption rules to be more cautious. Would you wait for the mechanism to stabilize for safety, or are you willing to try and take risks under the premise of meeting eligibility?After the 2018 midterm elections, BTC dropped from $6,400 to $3,200 in less than 40 days, exactly halving.
This week's post-election movement in the US stock market is almost identical to back then: a big surge the day after the election, followed by a 5.5% drop in the Nasdaq in one day, the largest single-day decline in 18 months. BTC reversed from 81,000 back to 76,000.
In my last analysis, the scenario was: after the election, a surge to around 80,000, then a pullback after the positive news was fully priced in. That step is now complete.
But a few things this week have made me downgrade my outlook:
The rebound was pushed back before reaching the 50-day moving average;
ETH has already broken below its previous low first;
The Federal Reserve's probability of a rate hike in December remains around 75% after the US stock market plunge;
And a historical pattern after rate hikes: in two samples, BTC dropped to a price 20% lower than the rate hike day price.
So in the detailed article, I did several things:
Mapped the 2018 timeline onto this year;
Recalculated the probabilities of four possible scenarios;
Clarified why $40,000 is worth using to test position sizing but not worth waiting for as a buy point.
The conclusion is here first: the timing window for the final drop remains unchanged, from mid-November to mid-December, but the price range has shifted down a notch, prepare for $60,000 to $73,000.
The first test will be whether $75,900 holds at the weekly close at 8 AM next Monday.
The full analysis is in the referenced long article, worth sharing.$BTC $ETH
Yesterday's big dip in BTC was basically caused by over-leveraging, leading to a self-inflicted crash.
Looking at the market, BTC quickly dropped from above $80,000, breaking below $76,000 directly, with over $1 billion liquidated in 24 hours, mostly long positions. This kind of drop isn't a slow sell-off but more like a chain reaction of forced liquidations among bulls.
The trigger was unusual on-chain activity. TRUMP transferred over 4,000 BTC to exchanges, and the market's immediate reaction was to sell, instantly tightening sentiment.
The real amplification of the drop came from the futures side. Previously, long leverage above $80,000 was stacked too densely; once the price broke the key level, forced liquidations had to sell, pushing prices lower and triggering more liquidations, creating a death spiral.
Now, the $75,000-$77,000 range is a short-term critical zone; if it holds, it's a consolidation, but if it doesn't, the price will look for support lower.
$SOL #美股遭大幅抛售：费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅 Conclusion first: Yesterday at 23:00, the 1H candle for $PONS had a trading volume of 4.89 million USD, which is 6.5 times the median of 740,000 USD for 100 1H candles. It opened at 0.2059, dropped to 0.1856, and closed at 0.1899. In 24 hours, it fell by 18.5%, with the current price at 0.1867.
Three figures indicate this is a bull retreat, not new short entry:
① Open interest dropped from 9.64 million USD to 7.54 million, down 21.8%;
② Funding rate has been stuck at the floor price of 0.00005 for 14 consecutive periods, bulls are paying but the amount is minimal, shorts are not crowded;
③ Perpetual 24-hour volume is 25 million, spot only 4.9 million, and the top 20 spot buy orders total only 70,000 USD — perpetual sets the price at 5 times the spot.
Looking at fundamentals: Robinhood Chain officially announced yesterday that TVL surpassed 1 billion USD. But the launchpad fees are the real buyback wallet — Pons V2 daily fees peaked at 11.05 million USD on September 5, averaged 520,000 USD daily in October, and 220,000 USD daily in November, down 98%. During the same period, the token price dropped from the ATH of 0.971 to 0.1867, down 80.8%.
The chain is rising, the token is falling, the wallet is shrinking. Do you think 0.15 is the bottom, or will you only dare to buy when daily fees return to 500,000? $PONSThis time, it's not the gamblers who are dumping.
Those trading contracts blew up 1.08 billion in two days and have already left the game.
Now, the ones selling coins are the spot holders.
The day before, they were still buying:
Net buying of 141 million in one day.
The next day, they turned hostile:
Sellers outnumbered buyers by 10%, the fiercest in a month.
Forced liquidations are people being pushed out,
Selling coins is people leaving on their own.
So, the latter is more frightening.
There's also an unresolved risk:
A wallet related to Trump media
Transferred 4,259 bitcoins into an exchange, about 340 million USD.
Although it's not confirmed they intend to sell, they have a debt due on November 30.
Currently around 76,000.
If it falls below 75,000, the next target is 73,200.
In the next two days, watch two things:
Whether those holding real coins will keep selling.
Whether the 340 million in the exchange moves.
Do you think they've finished selling?#ModernaQ3财报将揭示疫苗销售趋势 ⚠️ Forward-looking analysis only, not investment advice
Moderna (MRNA) Q3 is the seasonal sales window for respiratory vaccines this quarter. The market expects revenue of about $890 million, still maintaining a loss, but the loss is expected to narrow compared to Q2 (net loss of $800 million). The core revenue focus is on the increased administration of COVID-19 and RSV seasonal vaccines, which forms the short-term performance base.
The company continues to strictly control expenses and optimize costs. The cash burn rate is a key observation point, as it relates to the sustainability of pipeline R&D. The long-term main focus remains the tumor mRNA vaccine Intismeran, developed in collaboration with Merck, with market attention on regulatory submission pace and commercialization plans.
Short-term vaccine demand remains weak with considerable competitive pressure; the core catalyst for the stock price is not vaccine revenue but progress in tumor therapy implementation. If vaccination falls short of expectations or cash burn exceeds expectations, valuation will be under pressure. A brief analysis of BTC short-term trends (strategy suggestions) from Dow Theory, Chan Theory, Wave Theory, volume-price relationship, order flow, and price action
Comprehensive judgment
Dow Theory confirms a bull trap #2 followed by an accelerated bearish trend
Chan Theory's first buy at 75,607 was falsified, downward stroke continuation
Wave Theory's C wave 5th sub-wave is extending, target 72,000-74,000
Volume-price relationship - 3.905 billion/32.6 billion = capitulation #2, intensity over 10-30 times
Order flow extremely oversold + vacuum, risk-reward ratio biased bearish
Price action bull trap #2 + epic crash, complete bearish structure.
Six-dimensional synthesis: The "ultimate shakeout + V reversal" on 11-04 was falsified as bull trap #2, C wave 5th sub-wave decline accelerates, target 72,000-74,000. 75,448 is the last defense line; breaking it opens the abyss; holding and breaking out above 78,000 with volume may end the six-week decline. Currently in a recovery phase after capitulation #2, buying has not yet entered.
$BTC #星球日报 November 6, 2026, Issue 114 Aspirin Data Scientist's Perspective on Cycle Analysis In the previous issue, I bet on a scenario, in which the second step was written as follows: After the election results come out, BTC surges to 79,500 to 80,600, then the positive news is fully priced in and it pulls back. What actually happened this week was: On the night of the election, the highest point touched around 81,000, a bit higher than expected; on Thursday, the US stock market dropped 5.5% overnight, and BTC fell back to 76,000. The second step of the scenario was completed. I have to admit, on Wednesday, the day oil prices fell below 100 and the Dow Jones surged, I once raised the probability of "direct strengthening." But just one day later, the US stock market gave the answer. This also reminds me that one day's news is not worth changing a week's judgment. This issue puts together the changes before and after the election, the 2018 template, several new historical experiences, and on-chain data to update the roadmap for the next five weeks. 01 What exactly happened in these three days? November 3 was the midterm election. According to multiple media reports, the Republican Party lost, and the Democratic Party took control of both houses of Congress. On November 4, the market first traded on the "good news." The reason was straightforward: a change in Congress means added constraints on the executive branch, reducing the likelihood of the Iran war escalating. Brent crude oil fell from the October 23 high of $116 to below $100, intraday down to around $94; US stocks surged; BTC liquidated about $378 million in shorts within an hour, and the spot ETF also ended a three-day streakToday's institutional fund movements $BTC Huang Licheng has been liquidated again. This time, the operation path is worth everyone's attention: he sold 15 NFTs, raised $223,000, and exhausted it all within 4 days; meanwhile, the act of selling these NFTs itself resulted in a book loss of $505,000.
First, look at the numbers. Raising $223,000 to last 4 days means the position consumes over $50,000 margin daily. For these 4 days, he paid a liquidation discount of $505,000 — the cost is about 2.3 times the funds raised, in exchange for just four days.
Next, look at the loss distribution. Hyperliquid has accumulated losses of $37.4 million, papertrade_xyz losses of $909,000. The former can no longer be explained by "bad luck"; it is the result of long-term, repeated, leveraged directional bets.
The mechanism is clear: on-chain perpetuals have no buffer zone. NFTs are among the least liquid assets; order execution takes time, and the liquidation engine only looks at margin ratio, cutting positions as soon as the time comes. Using slow assets to cover fast liabilities, the time difference itself is a source of loss.
For high-volatility assets like $HYPE, being right or wrong on direction is only half the story; the other half is whether your replenishment speed can keep up with the liquidation speed.
One point worth considering: a person can lose tens of millions of dollars continuously on a public ledger, and the entire process has almost no impact on market sentiment. On-chain transparency brings observability, not early warning.#AAOI高速光模块放量，Q3财报能否超预期？ Revenue $269.9M, within guidance range and close to market consensus (slightly near the median), not a significant beat; data center revenue significantly increased year-over-year, 800G achieved expected sequential growth, 1.6T shipments started in small quantities at the end of Q3, contributing very little this quarterYesterday, the US stock market looked quite uncomfortable.
The Nasdaq dropped more than 5 points, chips fell even harder, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index lost 12% outright. This was because the Democrats swept the midterm elections, and the market suddenly felt that data centers might not be as easy to build.
Texas changed leadership, local areas complain about high electricity costs and disturbances, so the previous story of unlimited expansion no longer holds. The AI sector is overcrowded again, so any slight disturbance causes a sell-off.
I personally think this wave of emotion is overdone. Data centers will slow down and become more difficult, but I don't believe they will be stopped outright. The US won't be foolish enough to cut computing power themselves. What really got hit was the previously overheated premium; when crowded trades collapse, it happens this fast.
On the other hand, the A-shares actually rose a bit yesterday, with solar and related sectors quite active. Domestic funds haven't completely followed the frenzy.
This doesn't mean AI is finished; it's just that the previously smooth gains have been forcibly pressed down. Chips with real demand and barriers, if they just slow down rather than go to zero, will have a cleaner pullback; those relying purely on new construction stories carry greater risk. The relatively independent sectors like new energy in A-shares might feel more comfortable.
Don't rush to bottom-fish or scare yourself. First, watch whether approvals actually happen and whether companies really cut capital expenditures. Volatility will continue, so first sort out the most crowded parts.
#USStockEarningsSeason Short-term sentiment VS long-term fundamentals, I will analyze this news separately. At the close of the US stock market, the Nasdaq dropped 5.52%, the VIX fear index rose 69.66%; AI concept stocks generally fell, Astera Labs dropped 19.62%, AMD fell 17.26%. Just looking at these numbers, it does make one a bit anxious.
But my judgment is: the short-term risk alert is more justified than the conclusion that "AI's long-term logic has failed." On one hand, the broad market and AI stocks falling together indicates the pressure is not concentrated on a single company; on the other hand, a single day's drop cannot replace fundamental evidence such as orders and profits. Mapping this to the crypto AI sector, my speculation is that if risk-off sentiment continues to spread, projects lacking business support and mainly relying on narratives may face more pressure, but it cannot be directly assumed they will fall in sync.
I will first observe whether sentiment continues to deteriorate, then look at business evidence. Facing this decline, do you lean towards focusing on short-term risks first, or on the long-term realization of AI companies' profits?#Oklo核能供电布局距离商业化还有多远？ Groves Isotope Test Reactor (Texas): First criticality achieved on 2026-08-05
◦ It is a low-power test reactor, not the power-supplying Aurora unit, mainly used to gain operational experience and isotope business (aiming for isotope business revenue near 2027, which is Oklo's early cash flow). Isotopes can be sold separately (medical, industrial isotopes), representing a commercial revenue stream reached earlier than power generation.#IRENQ1AICloudDelivery Roberts says "a wider spread barely moves the economics" because customer prepayments of ~50% combined with GPU-backed financing at ~8% have covered 96% to more than 100% of GPU costs on recent deals with paybacks of ~2 years#软银重金押注OpenAI，Q2财报能否交出亮眼成绩？ From April to June 2026, the group's net profit was ¥347.3 billion, down 18% year-on-year, but significantly higher than the market expectation of ¥166 billion. What supported the market was not the AI core business, but Intel's shareholding unrealized gains of about ¥1.3 trillion — a one-time revaluation, not replicable.
The real main line is the Vision Fund: pre-tax profit was only ¥5.43 billion, a year-on-year plunge of 98.8%; investment income was ¥255.8 billion, down 64.8% year-on-year. OpenAI's cumulative book investment is $44.6 billion, with a fair value of $89.6 billion, but since the valuation remained unchanged from the end of March, there was zero profit or loss contribution this quarter.
Here lies the problem: Masayoshi Son has bet all chips on OpenAI, with cumulative commitments raised to $64.6 billion, but the assets are unlisted and illiquid, while SoftBank must rely on bond issuance and Arm equity pledges for continuous capital injection. As of November, the five-year CDS approached 383 basis points, a three-year high; S&P outlook is negative. The market worries not about "whether OpenAI is worth it," but "whether SoftBank can wait it out."
Arm is the only ballast: Q1 revenue was $1.29 billion, up 22% year-on-year, with a gross margin over 93%, but SoftBank has pledged its shares, effectively leveraging certain assets to back uncertain ones.
So the conclusion of this earnings report is very clear: the AI narrative remains intact, but financial quality is weakening. $SOFTBANK Last night, the Nasdaq dropped 5.5% overnight, and this morning Japan and South Korea also fell over 5%, with Bitcoin simultaneously down 5.8%.
Don't panic yet, take a look at these two charts before deciding whether to sell 🔥 Worth 1 million USD
First, look at the Nasdaq: it follows the US election cycle (Nasdaq data since 1971)
1. The year before the election is the strongest: out of 13 times, it rose 11 times, averaging +30%
2. The midterm election year is the weakest: out of 13 times, it only rose 7 times, which is this year
3. It strengthens right after the election: in the 6 months after the midterm election day, it rose all 13 times, median +15%
Next, look at Bitcoin: since 2020, it has followed the Nasdaq
4. When the Nasdaq falls, Bitcoin almost always follows: in 12 months when the Nasdaq dropped over 5% in a single month, Bitcoin fell in the same month 11 times
5. When the Nasdaq rises, Bitcoin doesn't necessarily rise: so far this year, Nasdaq is +4.6%, Bitcoin is -13%. Also, since 2017, in 6 major tops and bottoms, Bitcoin always turned before the Nasdaq
This kind of single-day drop over 5.5% in the Nasdaq last night has occurred 14 times since 1971 (rounds less than two months apart count as one): 10 rounds saw the Nasdaq close higher six months later; the other 4 rounds coincided with economic recessions.
The scenario to be most cautious about is 2018: also a midterm election year, the Nasdaq peaked at the end of August then dropped 24%; Bitcoin fell from $6,400 on midterm election day to a bottom of $3,200 on December 15.From a fundamental perspective, the company posted a net loss of about $800 million in Q2, with demand for the COVID-19 vaccine continuing to decline. The RSV vaccine faces competition from Pfizer and GSK, and its volume ramp-up is slower than expected, resulting in considerable short-term commercial pressure. However, 93% of market traders are betting on the earnings report to beat expectations. The core logic is not about blockbuster vaccine sales but two points: ongoing cost control and expectations for the mRNA oncology treatment pipeline.
Q3 is the peak season for respiratory vaccine vaccinations in Europe and the US during autumn and winter, a traditional sales window. The market will focus on actual shipment data for updated strain COVID-19 vaccines and RSV vaccines, which are currently the only segments contributing cash flow. If vaccine revenue exceeds analysts' consensus expectations and the loss narrows, the stock price will receive short-term support; conversely, if vaccination demand falls short of expectations, revenue continues to weaken, and losses widen further, the stock price is likely to come under pressure.
Overall judgment: The short-term trading nature is very strong, representing a "distress reversal expectation" scenario. Its profitability cycle is still far off, making it unsuitable for heavy long-term positions at this stage and more suited to event-driven trading. If vaccine sales rebound and cost control takes effect, combined with positive news from the oncology pipeline, the earnings report is likely to beat expectations and push the stock up; but if any one of these falls short, speculative funds will quickly exit. On the risk side, fierce competition in respiratory vaccines, clinical trial failures, and ongoing cash burn are potential negatives, so participation requires strict position management and stop-loss measures. #ModernaQ3财报将揭示疫苗销售趋势 $BTC
The quantum attack scheme was brought up again today, but I don't think it should be conflated with the current sharp drop. Bitcoin Core developers are discussing plans to defend against future quantum attacks, which is worth monitoring, but it is not the sudden selling pressure that appeared tonight.
OKX spot BTC is around $76,049, with a 24-hour high of $80,843 and low of $75,200, down about 5.6% from the opening; perpetual positions are about $2.65 billion, with a funding rate of 0.00276%, not yet at a level where bulls are clearly paying a high premium. The drop is severe, but positions have not given a consistent panic signal.
I put the quantum issue on the long-term risk list; in the short term, let's see if there is sustained volume following the sell-off. The technical approach can be debated slowly, but positions should not use worries from ten years later to find direction today.
#美股遭大幅抛售：费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅 $TAO has dropped 80%, but is the Bittensor ecosystem really getting worse?
TAO has retraced more than 80% from its peak, and the price indeed looks bad. But interestingly, the commercial revenue of the Bittensor ecosystem is still continuously growing.
According to SubConnect data, the annualized external revenue of the Bittensor subnet increased from about $35 million in early September to around $50 million in October, and is now close to $70 million, doubling in just two months.
The revenue mainly comes from computing power leasing and AI inference services, indicating that the ecosystem is gradually moving from pure hype to real commercial applications.
Of course, don’t rush to call a reversal yet. Currently, the ecosystem’s revenue still has a significant gap compared to the over $300 million in annual token releases. What really matters is not just revenue growth, but whether this revenue can continue to expand and ultimately be reflected in the value of TAO.
#美股遭大幅抛售：费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅 #Oklo核能供电布局距离商业化还有多远？ Oklo's first Aurora fast reactor has already started construction at the Idaho National Laboratory, and the company's own goal is to achieve first operation by 2028, assuming smooth regulatory approval and construction. That means there are about two years left from now; the real revenue-contributing project is the 1.2 GW site in Ohio, with phase one earliest operation in 2030.
But on the books, it’s still "burning money for the future"
In the first half of this year (up to the end of June), Oklo's total revenue was only $1.2 million, mainly from engineering consulting services, with a net loss of $81.6 million; fortunately, it holds about $3 billion in cash and almost no long-term debt, so burning cash for a few years is not a problem. Strictly speaking, it is currently a "pre-commercial" company: power revenue is only expected after the first reactor starts generating electricity in 2028.
How to view this distance
The three biggest variables on the path to commercialization are: first, whether the NRC Combined License Application (COLA) can be approved on schedule, which is a hard threshold; second, the scale supply of HALEU fuel, as the US supply chain is still very weak; third, Switch's 12 GW is only an intention, and whether it can turn into binding orders depends on project milestones. The positive side is that policies are clearly loosening, and real cash prepayments from companies like Meta have also alleviated capital expenditure pressure for expansion. Market Observation: Short Covering Dominates, Key Resistance Awaits Verification
$BTC: Rebound Driven by Liquidations, Increment Still Insufficient
BTC rose about 4.3% in 24 hours, with approximately $320 million in short positions liquidated within 30 minutes early morning, pushing the price back above $80,000. This rally appears more like passive buying from short stop-losses rather than sustained new long entries. ETF net outflow over three days totaled $1.16 billion, indicating continued pressure on capital. Until $81,300 is effectively reclaimed, the rebound is considered a correction.
$ETH: Sharp Rise Enters Trapped Zone
ETH rose about 6% in 24 hours, climbing from $2,172 to $2,428, showing strength on the 4-hour chart. However, the $2,430–$2,450 range is a previous dense trapped zone with heavy sell pressure from unlocking positions above. RSI is around 55, Stochastics have reached 85 in the overbought zone, reducing short-term upside risk/reward. Support is first seen at $2,411, with attention on how the $2,430 area digests supply.
$ZEC: Upgrade Pending, Shorts Squeezed First
ZEC rose over 14% in 24 hours. The NU7 upgrade is expected to activate around 9:30 PM Eastern Time, reducing block time from 75 seconds to 25 seconds. Approximately 12,000 Sprout pool ZEC will become permanently unspendable. #美中期选举后AI数据中心监管分歧引发行情波动 #非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 I almost got carried away by the intuition that "capital withdrawal means bearish sentiment." Most people interpret net outflows as negative news at first glance, but I want to ask: how well does this measure really reflect how bad the sentiment is?
According to Farside Investors data, the US Zcash spot ETF had a net outflow of about $11 million on November 5th Eastern Time. Thinking about it the other way, I consider this a negative signal for the ETF's capital flow, but it's not enough evidence to judge $ZEC as weak overall.
First, the data doesn't provide the total fund size; the same outflow amount can have very different impacts depending on the proportion. Second, the reason for redemption is missing, so directly interpreting the capital movement as a loss of confidence in the privacy sector skips the causality verification. This is my judgment, not an excuse for the outflow.
If you could only add one piece of data, would you choose fund size or redemption reason? I welcome those who think this is enough to determine bearishness to debate.11/6 Today I'm here to warn about risks for $BTC:
Please prepare mentally in advance, take it step by step.
Although BTC finally went up in a V-shape,
it probably isn't a V-shaped reversal; the bullish structure hasn't formed yet.
The sharp rise is to set up for a sharper drop, to re-accumulate sufficient liquidity.
This wave is about the election results landing, with the Democrats sweeping both chambers. Many rushed in to short BTC, and the market makers pushed the price up to squeeze shorts.
If nothing unexpected happens, the market makers' script for BTC this wave should be: break through 818-820, then lure bulls with a few days of oscillation, creating a false breakout of the trendline. After bulls enter on the trendline breakout or MACD golden cross, there will be a big drop, breaking below the 750 low point completely.Don't treat the Democrats taking both chambers as a bull market starting gun. Expectations have already been fully priced in; the actual outcome is more like a window for realization, with the real test being political tug-of-war and regulatory details.
Look at $BTC: the election market sentiment has been overdrawn in advance. The pattern of a shakeout followed by recovery after the election cannot be ignored. The executive and legislature check each other, bill progress is slow, and policy uncertainty is rising; once market sentiment weakens, bulls are prone to a stampede, and new lows are not impossible.
Look at $ETH: it acts more like an amplifier of risk appetite. Expectations of tighter regulation will suppress capital sentiment, and the previous high-cost lobbying effects will also be discounted. The ecosystem lacks new narratives; once risk-off sentiment rises, the decline could be amplified with limited resistance.
From a macro perspective, a divided Congress means limited fiscal stimulus space. Don't treat the election as a talisman; non-farm payrolls and inflation are the next hurdles. The high interest rate environment remains unchanged, and data volatility can disrupt the market at any time.
Look at $XAUT: with fiscal obstacles, sticky inflation, and central bank buying, safe-haven funds still have reasons to allocate here, and resilience is likely stronger than in the crypto space.
Summary: The election outcome marks the start of volatility, not a safety net. Resistance above remains; chasing highs is risky. Position control and guarding against spikes are paramount.$SPCX moved quite decisively this round. The idea given yesterday was to short on a rebound at 137–138. I was initially worried the position was a bit high, but it directly touched the range overnight and then reversed, hitting a low of 129, which is a few dollars more than my original target. Today it bounced back to 134.
I thought about this part: after the sharp drop, short positions were closed en masse, pushing the price up a bit, but this wasn’t due to anyone actively going long. However, the 134 level just can’t hold; the chips trapped above want to escape as soon as they break even, and buyers can’t hold them.
So, I’m still not bullish in the short term. I’ll consider entering a position again if it rebounds between 136–137, with the target still below 130. The non-farm payrolls report is imminent, and if the data really pushes up the probability of a December rate hike, this rebound could be wiped out at any time.
Nothing else much, just don’t push the volume too high—after a drop, a surge is usually just to get people on board.Everyone is hoping for an interest rate cut, thinking that once money loosens, crypto will rise.
But in the past eight years, there have been eight rate cuts,
and one month later, Bitcoin fell four times,
three times dropping more than 15%.
After the rate cut in September 2019, it dropped 35% in three months.
After the rate cut in September 2024, it rose 72% in three months.
Both were rate cuts, but one fell and the other rose.
The difference lies in two things.
First, look at whether Bitcoin moved before the news came out.
In June 2019, Bitcoin first surged to 13,970.
One month later, the Federal Reserve cut rates.
The good news had already been bought up; when the cut actually happened, it was time to sell.
So in July, September, and even October that year, with rate cuts,
Bitcoin kept falling until the end of the year.
Next, look at why the cut was made.
In March 2020, the cut was made because of a crisis.
The pandemic hit, and interest rates were slashed to zero.
When the news came out, Bitcoin first dropped 6%, then 22% a month later.
It took several months for money to slowly increase,
so it only rose back over 70% three months later.
September 2024 was different.
The economy wasn’t bad, and the Fed loosened a bit early.
With nowhere else to go, money ran to the riskiest place.
In three months, Bitcoin rose 72%.
The same rate cut,
one was due to a crisis, the other was a preemptive cut without crisis.
Now the market is betting on a rate hike on December 9.
What will happen on December 9? Don’t look at that day, look at November.
If Bitcoin has already fallen once before then, December 9 will just be a formality.
If it stays flat, that day will really hurt.
Currently, the probability of a prior drop is relatively high.The income from someone shouting a short position might be half of their short-selling profit. This matter itself is more worth watching than the direction.
Trader Ansem shorted SOL on Pump, with a Callout reward of about $36,000. The total viewpoint reward given by the platform to him is roughly equal to half the profit of this trade. Earning from the trade once, and earning from the viewpoint again, shouting calls has turned from a side job into a main business.
Rewards should be given for "good content," but once linked to "viewpoint validation," shouting calls becomes an independent business. This also explains a phenomenon: the more extreme the market, the more people publicly shouting calls, and the more absolute their tone.
His technical basis is well laid out: bearish engulfing on the monthly chart, simultaneous breakdowns on daily and weekly trends, plus a layer of bearish retest on Nasdaq futures. All three point to the same thing—not just a single coin weakening, but risk assets being drained together. So what he is shorting is not just SOL locally, but mainstream assets.
How to explain the recent rise? He himself says it’s a short squeeze. Shorts are too concentrated, prices pushed to key resistance levels, stop losses triggered in a chain reaction, which looks like a reversal but is actually fuel burning. His observation points are whether the daily chart can reclaim the weekly range and whether it will fall below $96.
Here is an uncomfortable question: when the viewpoint itself can be sold at a price, is the analysis you read a judgment or a position? The longs and shorts of the same person, and the longs and shorts they are willing to make public, are not necessarily the same thing. US Stock Sector Update: Energy Weakens, Pharmaceuticals Remain the Last Line of Defense Before the sharp decline in US equities, only the energy and pharmaceutical sectors managed to maintain relatively strong upward momentum. However, energy has now started pulling back, while pharmaceuticals continue trading near elevated levels, becoming the market's last remaining defensive sector. If pharmaceuticals also begin to weaken, it could provide a clearer signal that the broader market retreat is dIn my spare time, I checked the data for BTC, ETH, ZEC, and SOL again. Three of the four coins are trending down, with only ZEC turning green. This morning, I only followed the position of this one.
Have the three major mainstream coins all fallen? Not entirely. BTC dropped 5.51% in one day, but its position only decreased by 2.07%, making it the most resilient among the three; ETH fell the hardest, down 7.63%, with its position decreasing by 5.94%; SOL's position dropped the most deeply, 7.53%, with the price down 6.28%. If I were to say who will recover first, I’d look at BTC first, as its position is the most stable and it’s closest to 76,000, just half a step away from reclaiming.
Why is ZEC the one? It rose 0.82% in one day, with its position increasing by 2.82% in one hour. Its capital cost of 0.0201% is the highest among the four coins, and those chasing it are still bidding up aggressively 🔥; NU7 is still 45 blocks away, opening in less than an hour.
Fear and greed at 27, previously 51 in the last round, directly falling into the fear zone; despite the fear, the entire network’s position only decreased by 3.84% in one day, meaning money hasn’t fled. Sentiment moves faster than price, but positions haven’t followed suit.
Tonight at 21:30, the non-farm payrolls will be announced, with expectations of an increase between 59,000 and 65,000; yesterday’s ADP actual was 86,000, stronger than expected. If non-farm payrolls also come in strong, the hawkish tension will tighten again. The second proof from a certain An has not yet been released; it only arrived at the window during the day, so I’ll wait for it to land before commenting.
Thinking in reverse is the same: if non-farm payrolls exceed expectations, BTC will first test whether 75,600 can hold; if weaker, I’ll first look at the 77,200 area, following position and price, not sentiment 🎯Many people are still waiting for $BTC to retest the bottom in Q4, but I believe this time, it might not be necessary to wait.
From historical trends, BTC experiences three significant lows in each cycle.
The bottom structure in 2023 is almost identical to the pattern formed this year, especially the last two lows, both completed through liquidity sweeps.
What does this mean?
From a technical structure perspective, this market cycle may have already completed its bottoming process, and the bear market is over.
Currently, BTC has retraced about 13.5% from its all-time high, more like a synchronized deleveraging of risk assets influenced by the decline in U.S. stocks and the Nasdaq.
There are two prevailing market views right now:
Believe in seasonal patterns and wait for another bottom retest in Q4.
Believe in market structure and think the bottom has already formed.
I choose the second.
Seasonal patterns may change, but market structure is more reliable. I do not think BTC will create a new low in Q4.
If I am wrong, I will bear the corresponding losses.Storage stocks take a hit: the price hike tailwind begins to slow down
$SNDK fell more than 10% in 24 hours, AXTI also dropped over 10%, with U.S. semiconductor hardware stocks mostly in the red. The problem is not with the overall market but with the storage sector, which was overheated in the previous rally: the price hike story was too smooth, and once marginal expectations loosened, institutional profit-taking concentrated. Kioxia is also signaling that the momentum for flash memory price increases is weakening, and the consumer side is starting to resist high prices.
Coupled with the midterm election results, with the Democrats taking control of both chambers, expectations for stricter tech regulation are rising, and semiconductor hardware with high valuations is the first to be hit. $BTC $ETH remain relatively independent, but risk appetite contraction will still have a transmission effect.
This round of storage is moving from "storytelling" to "realization," so be cautious about chasing highs and first see if the price hikes can hold.
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 $BTC's recovery speed is accelerating.
It took 67 days to return to the price level before FTX's bankruptcy; but only 6 days to recover to the level before Binance was hacked.
The market's ability to absorb negative news has clearly strengthened, which also gives reason to believe that the bottom of this cycle may have already appeared.