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Order Book Strength Ranking 5-minute median slippage, estimated by order book After amplifying orders for both tokens, slippage for both buying and selling increased significantly, with the highest simulated slippage for $UVXY at the 100,000 scale. $UVXY simulated slippage for 10,000 scale buy/sell is 0.22%/0.17%, and for 100,000 scale is 0.86%/0.74%. This is a cost table, not a direction; simultaneous increase in cost on both buy and sell sides indicates overall shallow depth. $SNXX simulated slippage for 10,000 scale buy/sell is 0.08%/0.08%, and for 100,000 scale is 0.34%/0.36%. Both sides becoming more expensive suggests initial volume reduction or order splitting.This morning CoinGecko ranked #5 in hot searches, $HYPE had about $1.41 billion in 24h trading volume across the network, with a market cap of about $18.6 billion, ranking 11th. OKX spot price is currently about 77.8, down roughly 8% from the 24h open at 84.5, with a daily range of 76.3–84.6 (data as of approximately 10:10 Beijing time). Today coincides with the unlocking node: the public schedule states nearly 10 million tokens, but the team says only about 180,000 tokens are actually distributed to core contributors. The day before, platform priority fees hit a record of about $521,000; additionally, a Hyperliquid Strategies subsidiary submitted an FCM registration intent, aiming to offer perpetual contracts to US users. While the overall market is dropping, HYPE's traffic hasn't declined, and the actual unlocking volume and compliance narrative will continue to be closely watched. $HYPE$AAOI delivered a strong Q3, recording $269.9 million in revenue and returning to GAAP profitability. Its Q4 revenue forecast of $385–$420 million also points to strong growth expectations. Demand for 800G and 1.6T optical products remains a major opportunity, but the sharp post earnings sell off makes me cautious. My prediction is NO because strong business performance doesn't always translate into an immediate stock price gain. #AAOIQ3800GOutlook Every time the US stock market crashes sharply, even plummets, it eventually recovers and reaches new highs. However, as investors, can we accept the preparation for a long-term battle? A few months of decline really isn't much. If we encounter something like the 2000 internet bubble, with continuous steep drops for three years, cutting the value in half, would we still have the confidence to keep buying and holding? Probably not, because at that time, negative news would be everywhere, and countless people would be forced to cut losses and exit. The financial market is that ruthless. Right now, I am mentally prepared for a long-term battle. I am very patient. I don't trade US stocks, but US stocks are the parent of Bitcoin; if US stocks perform poorly, Bitcoin will also suffer. If US stocks continue to fall, Bitcoin will most likely follow. I will buy Bitcoin below 60,000 and definitely will not try to catch the bottom with everyone else at 75,000. If it doesn't drop below 60,000, then I will keep waiting. Low prices represent higher probability, better risk-reward ratio, and odds, meaning sufficient margin of safety. If you want to know why this round of sell-off is so fierce, save this first! Nasdaq: -5.1% S&P 500: -3% $MU: -17% $SNDK: -18% This looks more like a broad-based passive sell-off rather than a problem in a single sector. From financial stocks to AI infrastructure, almost all assets are falling. Even high-quality companies like $MU, $AMZN, and $NVDA have been hit hard because when funds urgently need cash, the easiest assets to sell are often the most liquid ones. But the fundamentals of AI have not disappeared because of this: AMD’s earnings guidance exceeded market expectations. SMCI’s single-quarter revenue reached $19.9 billion. $MU and $SNDK reportedly have their production capacity booked for the next several years, with contracts including margin guarantees. The real issue is the macro environment: the Iran war is pushing up oil prices, inflation is under renewed pressure, and market expectations for Federal Reserve policy have changed. My view is: short-term charts may look bad, but that doesn’t mean the AI industry logic has ended.Pal $BTC Market Morning Report -11.6 Today there is quite a lot of text; if you don't want to read, just skip to the conclusion at the end. If you want to follow along with the analysis, please be patient. 1. K-line Chart 1) Daily Chart Situation (Figure 1) 1) Here we go again, drawing a good gate. Currently, the market is completely controlled by emotions and news. On Wednesday, the market believed that a Democratic victory could check Trump, so it rose, but on Thursday, due to a Democratic super AI ban, market fear intensified directly. This is somewhat like in ancient times when someone claimed to have 1 million troops after leading 10,000, causing the enemy to abandon the city immediately. However, for us, the decline is a buying opportunity at the bottom, not a reason to distrust. Because after a single-day plunge of 5%, it is often followed by short covering or an oversold rebound (for example, the top 20 largest single-day gains in history almost always closely follow the top 20 largest single-day losses). Two consecutive trading days with drops over 5% each day is an extremely rare black swan event, which has only happened twice in history. (I will write a dedicated article at noon.) 2) From the K-line perspective, this is maintaining the 75-81 range I mentioned, just that this oscillation is very unpleasant. Actually, BTC is still relatively strong compared to the US stock market; it just gave back Wednesday's gains. Currently, 81-82 is a short-term important resistance level. Below that, 749 is waiting to be plundered. Then look at positions around 732 and 71, or more accurately, the current bottom is around 70-75. Unless the US stock market continues with black swan events, dropping 5% consecutively.Today, the $3.5 trillion sell-off is facing two major obstacles behind AI suppression concerns: January and Trump's veto power. The U.S. stock market lost over $3,500,000,000,000 today, with the Nasdaq 100 index recording its worst day since March 2020. According to Reuters, chip manufacturers plummeted due to fears of stricter AI regulations after the Democrats took control of Congress. The biggest decliners today include: Nasdaq 100: −6.4% S&P 500: −4.4% Dow Jones: −3.4% Chip Index: −12.3% The cryptocurrency market lost nearly $200 billion, with liquidations exceeding $1 billion. All three Trump family tokens hit historic lows, and the VIX fear index surged 63%. But the Democrats' AI plan cannot advance yet: - The Democrats will only control Congress after the new members are sworn in on January 3. - Even then, Trump can veto any bill they pass. - Overriding a veto requires a two-thirds majority in both the House and Senate, far exceeding the majority seats won by the Democrats. AI concerns are not the only pressure: according to Reuters, Federal Reserve officials also hinted at further interest rate hikes.NU7 upgrade countdown. $ZEC worth $160 million in the Sprout pool, after today, even private keys won't save it. The Zcash NU7 upgrade activates today (November 6) at 10:30 AM Beijing time, at block height 3,543,405. Block time is compressed from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, tripling the speed. But the cost is that an old path is completely cut off: version 4 transaction format is disabled, and this was the only way to spend tokens in the Sprout pool. Before the upgrade, there are about 12,226 ZEC in the Sprout pool, valued at approximately $16 million at $1300 each. Once the upgrade activates, even with valid private keys, these coins will be unusable. ZIP 2003 leaves a "possible future recovery" option, but it clearly states: it may never be re-enabled. ZEC rose 6% today, breaking through 1300. But NU7 is not a bullish event landing; it is a hard reset of chip structure. The frozen $16 million is unrelated to circulating supply, but it changes who dares to hold ZEC overnight after the upgrade. #非农今晚揭晓,美股大跌后市场如何押注12月加息? Circle's revenue exceeded expectations, but USDC circulation is shrinking. Seeing on-chain transaction volume up 49% while the seven-day circulation decreased by about 800 million looks a bit contradictory. There's no issue with the transaction volume. A 49% growth rate indicates that USDC is indeed being frequently used in settlement and exchange scenarios, and Circle's fees come from this volume, which aligns with the revenue exceeding expectations. Circulation is moving in the opposite direction. The seven-day decrease of about 800 million, despite such a large increase in volume, hasn't pulled the issuance side back, indicating that most of the on-chain money is turnover of existing stock, with little new money coming in. Binance's USDC on the ETH chain just resumed withdrawals, and the first batch of people to move once the channel opened were already looking to relocate funds. Some in the community moved Binance's USDC to OKX to participate in simple earning; this kind of movement only changes where the funds are held, not the total amount, and does not help net increase on the issuance side. The condition for both sides to align is for circulation to stop declining while transaction volume growth remains above 40%; if volume continues to shrink, the 49% figure will only reflect turnover contribution. $USDC #CircleQ3营收超预期,USDC链上交易量增长49% BTC and ETH showed a slight hourly recovery, but volume dropped nearly 50%, suggesting buying pressure remains weak. $BTC is around $76,310, facing resistance at $76,430–$76,560. A breakout could open the way toward $76,810–$77,010, while losing $76,035 risks retesting $75,200. $ETH is near $2,245. It needs to reclaim $2,250–$2,270 to strengthen recovery; otherwise, $2,236 and $2,206 remain key supports. $BTC $ETH #CircleQ3USDCVolumeUp49% $SNDK Why have AI giants plummeted so much? Let me explain, what's the current situation? The funds in a reservoir are limited. Now there are two groups needing this money: one is the U.S. government to fill the fiscal gap, and the other is AI giants frantically building data centers, also requiring cash flow. But the money in the reservoir is finite. This is something I mentioned a long time ago. Before the midterm elections, the Democrats began publicly stating that if they win, they would restrict the construction of data centers. But when exactly will the construction of data centers be allowed again? That depends on when the Federal Reserve starts cutting interest rates and injecting liquidity into this reservoir. In the short term, the funds in the reservoir probably won't flow to AI anymore, because no one can guarantee future performance. However, buying 5- or 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds yields at least 5-10%. Got it? Nonfarm Payrolls Arrive After a Sharp Drop: Will the Data Amplify Volatility or Bring Recovery? After last night's plunge, those watching the market probably felt uneasy. U.S. tech stocks faced sell-offs, and BTC and ETH also retreated; even more frustrating, the nonfarm payrolls report hasn't come out yet tonight, and the market must face another test of interest rate expectations. My view: There is a chance for recovery after a big drop, but we can't assume a rebound just because the drop was large once the data is released. Let's look at the downside first. If employment and wages are clearly strong, the market will worry about rate hikes again, U.S. Treasury yields will rise accordingly, and BTC and ETH's rebound may face pressure again. For BTC, watch around 75200, and for ETH, around 2206—these are their recent 24-hour lows. If the 1-hour candlestick breaks below and fails to recover after the rebound, I will consider continued weakness as the short-term scenario and avoid buying for now. If employment cools moderately and rate pressure eases, both coins may see recovery. But I won't chase after just one bullish candle: first observe if BTC can reclaim 77000 and ETH can reclaim 2300, then wait to see if the pullback holds. These two are key round-number levels for observation, not guaranteed support. There is another scenario that can mislead people: if the data is too weak, U.S. Treasury yields fall, but the market starts worrying about growth, coin prices may not rise accordingly. Conversely, even if the data is strong, as long as both coins hold their lows and reclaim the observation levels, I will adjust my cautious stance. $BTC $ETH #非农今晚揭晓,美股大跌后市场如何押注12月加息? A company earned 1.178 billion USD in one quarter, and you might think it went crazy mining. Actually, its main business only brought in 233 million, the rest is a large portion from the valuation increase of warrants held, recorded on the books. At the same time, another veteran did the opposite: sold all 2,520 $BTC, got 192 million USD in cash, basically cleared reserves, and said it will sell any mined coins in the future, using the money to build AI data centers. One keeps the coins on paper turning them into profit, the other converts coins into cash and leaves. Both make sense, but it looks a bit surreal. Meanwhile, $TRX is still slowly buying, adding another 155,000 coins.Republican coins: BTC, BNB, JUP, DOGE, XRP, TRUMP, WLFI Democratic coins: ETH, XLM, LINK, SOL, UNI, PEPE, ZEC Although it's just a meme, the Democrats won, ETH and SOL rose, and BTC also increased. The real losers are TRUMP and WLFI, because their value is tied to Trump's political influence, and the premium was taken away. XRP didn't crash along; it follows its own regulatory narrative. BTC relies on ETFs and interest rate expectations, while ETH and SOL seem more like oversold recoveries. What to buy next still depends on cash flow, supply structure, and position in the sector. Just yesterday morning, it had just bounced back to 80,000, but today the US stock market slapped it back down to 76,000, and the momentum didn't hold. BTC is around $76,222 this morning, down 5.3% in 24 hours, ETH down 7.3% back to $2,242. Last night, the US stock market was the main battlefield: the Nasdaq plunged 5.52% into correction territory, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 12%, Nvidia dropped 9%, AMD, Micron, and Marvell fell 17%. The trigger is still the midterm elections; after the Democrats took both chambers, the market worries that AI data center expansion will be tightened. Once that narrative loosened, the crypto market got hit along with it. When BTC broke below 77,000, about $370 million in leveraged positions were liquidated, mostly longs. Honestly, yesterday's surge was just shorts covering and being squeezed out; no one really took the baton, and 80,000 never held. My plan: 75,000 is a line that has held multiple times since August. If it drops near there, I'll look in batches; if it breaks, I'll admit the mistake and exit. I won't add positions until it bounces back above 80,000. Tonight at 21:30, the Nonfarm Payrolls report is the next test, with an expected increase of 65,000. I won't make any moves before the data comes out. Before Nonfarm, trying to bottom-fish in this kind of drop is just handing money to the shorts. $BTC $ETH $SOL $WLFI I will first discount the buyback announcement. WLFI said it plans to use USD1 reserve income and other funds for token buybacks, with initial funds to be activated first, and the scale and speed to be adjusted later based on ecosystem growth and governance participation. It sounds directional, but there is currently no clear amount or pace, so the "planned buyback" cannot be directly counted as an already active buy order. OKX spot is currently quoted at $0.04722, with a 24-hour low of $0.04355 and a high of $0.04887. It has bounced about 8% from the low during the day but is still some distance from the high. Perpetual positions are about $8.42 million, with a fee rate of 0.005%, lower than the common 0.01% benchmark; contract volume is not small, but positions are not heavy, indicating more short-term turnover. I prefer to wait for the buyback details to be finalized before making a judgment. The announcement can support sentiment, but whether it can truly support the price depends on the money and execution. #美股遭大幅抛售:费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅 Just yesterday morning, it had just bounced back to 80,000, but today the US stock market slapped it back down to 76,000, and the momentum didn't hold. BTC is around $76,222 this morning, down 5.3% in 24 hours, ETH down 7.3% back to $2,242. Last night, the US stock market was the main battlefield: the Nasdaq plunged 5.52% into correction territory, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 12%, Nvidia dropped 9%, AMD, Micron, and Marvell fell 17%. The trigger is still the midterm elections; after the Democrats took both chambers, the market worries that AI data center expansion will be tightened. Once that narrative loosened, the crypto market got hit along with it. When BTC broke below 77,000, about $370 million in leveraged positions were liquidated, mostly longs. Honestly, yesterday's surge was just shorts covering and being squeezed out; no one really took the baton, and 80,000 never held. My plan: 75,000 is a line that has held multiple times since August. If it drops near there, I'll look in batches; if it breaks, I'll admit the mistake and exit. I won't add positions until it bounces back above 80,000. Tonight at 21:30, the Nonfarm Payrolls report is the next test, with an expected increase of 65,000. I won't make any moves before the data comes out. Before Nonfarm, trying to bottom-fish in this kind of drop is just handing money to the shorts. $BTC $ETH $SOL $BTC $ETH $XAU #非农今晚揭晓,美股大跌后市场如何押注12月加息? 1. The Strait of Hormuz handles about 20% of global oil transportation. If the route is blocked, oil prices will rise rapidly. Rising oil prices will push up global inflation, directly suppressing expectations for a Fed rate cut and even increasing the possibility of a rate hike. The strengthening of US Treasury real yields is bearish for interest-free risk assets like BTC. ​ 2. Capital risk aversion reallocates Capital will flow in layers: gold and US Treasuries are traditional safe havens; high-risk assets like US tech stocks and cryptocurrencies will be sold off first. Many people have a misconception: war does not equal a crypto market rally. Currently, BTC is classified as a risk asset, and at the outbreak of conflict, risk appetite usually declines and capital flees. ​ The upcoming market will be volatile. Brothers, what are your thoughts? Yesterday, crypto concept stocks took two completely opposite paths, perfectly exposing the industry's current most awkward situation. First, look at Core Scientific. Q3 revenue was $233 million, net profit $1.178 billion. This difference wasn’t mined; it’s the change in the fair value of warrants recorded in the profit and loss statement. The same machines, the same electricity costs, but the book profit is inflated fivefold by Wall Street’s pricing rules. On the other hand, Keel Infrastructure, formerly Bitfarms, sold 2,520 BTC all at once, cashing out $192 million, basically clearing out reserves, and announced that future output will be sold immediately, with all proceeds invested in AI infrastructure. The logic is straightforward: AI data centers can now get higher valuation multiples, and $BTC is the easiest asset to liquidate on the balance sheet. Selling coins doesn’t require issuing debt or new shares, making it the cheapest form of financing. Tron Inc. is doing the opposite, still dollar-cost averaging, this time adding 155,000 TRX, bringing total reserves to 722 million. While mining companies exit, the ecosystem side is supporting, so the $TRX chip structure relies more on a single entity than $BTC. What’s really worth watching isn’t that $1.178 billion, but who is actually selling coins for real money. The profit and loss statement can be polished, but cash flow doesn’t lie.$ETH A security update has been released, but ETH's market hasn't responded favorably. MetaMask stated that in the validator node incident in September, all affected nodes have exited, and there is no sign that wallets or wallet infrastructure were compromised; about 0.385 ETH in staking rewards were transferred, not users' principal. This distinction must be clear—don't confuse validator node rewards being redirected with wallets being hacked. However, ETH is now around $2240, having dropped nearly 8% in 24 hours from $2429 to $2206. About $1.5 billion in perpetual positions remain open, and the funding rate is nearly zero. The security incident itself isn't major; clearly, there are other factors weighing on the price right now. I will treat this as a risk background, not an independent trading reason. Let's first see if the market can absorb this drop. #美股遭大幅抛售:费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅 A $97.02 tower, with the upper structure only 0.2% away from the upper Bollinger Band, yet the bulls treat the 1.97% daily gain as a topping ceremony — this 0.2% eccentricity is enough to cause the most beautiful facade to crack under wind vibration. The foundation of $JITOSOL is the Solana staking architecture; the load-bearing wall of liquidity derivatives lies in the validator set and redemption mechanism, not in the whitepaper's design diagram. The short-term RSI has reached 66.4, surpassing the sell threshold of 64; the 1-hour RSI signals not an overbought frenzy but the start of seepage at construction joints. The short-term Bollinger Band price position is 87%, 1.4% above the lower band and 0.2% below the upper band, a precursor to plastic hinges forming at beam ends before node yielding. The mid-term Bollinger Band position is 51%, 3.2% above the lower band and 2.9% below the upper band; the core tube is temporarily stable, but the upper structure has entered a nonlinear response. The 24-hour gain of 1.97% is merely facade decoration; the load-bearing system has not been simultaneously reinforced. Entry at 98.38, 1.4% above the current price, is waiting for the beam to rebound to the preset sell point, not chasing load increases at the tower tip; targets at 94.55 and 94.03 represent declines of 2.5% and 3.1%, corresponding to a structural unloading at the support zone near the lower band +1.4%. The stop loss at 108.25, +11.6%, is seismic redundancy to prevent sudden foundation overload. 📉 Short: Entry: 98.38 (current price +1.4%) Take Profit 1: 94.55 (-2.5%) Take Profit 2: 94.03 (-3.1%) Stop Loss: 108.25 (+11.6%) This trade only dismantles the excessive tension in the upper structure without touching the core tube; when the price is only 0.2% from the upper band, chasing longs is like cutting holes in the load-bearing wall.Haha, Trump’s move directly crashed his own Meme coin 😂 In the midterm elections, the Republican Party underperformed, and the Democrats took control of both the House and Senate. Trump's political prospects took a big hit, and the $TRUMP coin with the same name suffered as well. Yesterday, TRUMP hit a low of $1.215, setting a historic low. Compared to its peak of over $70, it has dropped more than 98%! The funniest part is, BTC has started to slowly rebound, but this coin keeps plummeting. To be clear, this coin’s hype isn’t based on technology at all; it’s purely propped up by Trump’s political heat. Now that the Republicans lost Congress, it will be extremely difficult for him to push crypto-related policies, and the Democrats might even start investigating his family’s crypto businesses. The story they hyped before is basically dead. The most valuable thing for a Meme coin is consensus. Once everyone loses confidence, the drop can be brutal. Trump still has two years in office, but those holding TRUMP probably don’t want to stick around with him anymore. #US stocks suffer heavy sell-off: Philadelphia Semiconductor Index posts largest single-day drop since March 2020 The boss has something to say I went to bed with no positions last night, and the first thing I saw this morning was this: On November 5, US stocks experienced a heavy sell-off, with the Dow down 3.44%, the S&P 500 down 4.36% to 7353, and the Nasdaq down 5.52% to 24315, having retraced nearly 12% from the October 6 high, entering a correction zone; the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 12.25% in a single day, marking its largest drop since March 2020, and S&P 500 constituents lost about $3 trillion in market value in one day. The trigger was the midterm elections where the Democrats took control of both houses, and the new governor of Texas promised to suspend data center approvals—Goldman Sachs calculated that Texas accounts for a quarter of all data center expansion in the US. My interpretation is: this is not an ordinary correction; it is the first time the “AI infrastructure narrative” has been directly stabbed by policy. The market’s concern is not about demand disappearing, but that the switches of approvals and power are being held down, limiting new computing power supply, and the entire high-beta chain is being devalued together. Last night I stayed out and watched AAOI and Oklo earnings reports; looking back now, that was the right move—at this level of sell-off, any leveraged long position is a life-risking bet. BTC fell along this morning, breaking below 76000, just smashing below the 78960 support line I mentioned a few days ago. My approach: don’t catch the first down candle, wait for panic selling to subside; first see if 75000–75800 can hold $BTC $ETH $ZEC The Nasdaq plunged 5.5% in one day, wiping out $2.5 trillion in market value! Just yesterday, people were celebrating the rebound, and today tech stocks got hammered badly. The worst hit were semiconductors, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropping over 12%. Popular stocks like AMD and Micron didn't escape either. This time, it’s really not just market panic to blame. After the US midterm elections, the market started worrying that AI data center construction will face more obstacles. Power, water usage, approvals — it was already complicated, and now policy uncertainty has increased. What’s worse, many data center companies rely on borrowing to expand. If projects get delayed, revenue can wait, but interest payments won’t. So there’s a notable change in this round of declines: the market is starting to reassess AI companies with large orders but insufficient cash flow. With such a big drop, is it time to bottom-fish? Short term, the bias is still bearish; no rush to buy. The Nasdaq has entered a technical correction zone; first, watch if the semiconductor sector can stop falling. If chip stocks keep leading the decline, even occasional rebounds in the broader market might not last long. Conversely, if semiconductors stabilize and financing pressure eases, then consider gradually building positions in companies with real profit support. AI demand hasn’t suddenly disappeared, but the days when just telling an expansion story could drive prices up might be over. With this tech stock crash, do you think it’s an overreaction or is the AI sector really bursting a bubble? $SNDK $SOXL #美股遭大幅抛售:费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅 Looking at this headline feels like seeing two people dining together and spending over a thousand, only to find upon checking the bill that one ordered a full Manchu Han Imperial Feast while the other just had a bowl of soup 😂 According to SoSoValue data, on November 5th Eastern US time, the US ZEC and NEAR spot ETFs had net outflows of $10,994,100 and $773,800 respectively, totaling $11,767,900. I think the main caution with this news is the emotional misinterpretation caused by the "total" figure, rather than labeling both coins uniformly as bearish: the outflow is clearly concentrated in $ZEC, and the redemption pressure on both sides cannot be equated; ETF fund flows are just one channel and cannot directly represent the overall capital movement of the coins. If this total outflow is interpreted as both sectors falling out of favor simultaneously, I believe the evidence is insufficient. If you were to write the headline, would you highlight ZEC or put both coins side by side—should NEAR's bowl of soup share the bill of the full Manchu Han Imperial Feast?$OFC has already died prematurely. The project team continuously rewards workers and fans with coins without a clear unlocking schedule or fixed circulation. The endless airdrops make big investors hesitant to come in and manipulate the price easily. Looking at it now, 99.99% of the accounts are small retail investors who think that with such a low market cap, big money can easily pump it tenfold or a hundredfold, but little do they know there are no big holders at all. If there are any, they are stuck inside and can't move, not foolishly pumping the price to let you profit. The only way out is for the platform to delist it, and everyone suffers together inside. Better to cut losses and leave early than to die inside.Pal $BTC Market Morning Report -11.6 Today there is quite a lot of text; if you don't want to read, just skip to the conclusion at the end. If you want to follow along with the analysis, please be patient. 1. K-line Chart 1) Daily Chart Situation (Figure 1) 1) Here we go again, drawing a good gate. Currently, the market is completely controlled by emotions and news. On Wednesday, the market believed that a Democratic victory could check Trump, so it rose, but on Thursday, due to a Democratic super AI ban, market fear intensified directly. This is somewhat like in ancient times when someone claimed to have 1 million troops after leading 10,000, causing the enemy to abandon the city immediately. However, for us, the decline is a buying opportunity at the bottom, not a reason to distrust. Because after a single-day plunge of 5%, it is often followed by short covering or an oversold rebound (for example, the top 20 largest single-day gains in history almost always closely follow the top 20 largest single-day losses). Two consecutive trading days with drops over 5% each day is an extremely rare black swan event, which has only happened twice in history. (I will write a dedicated article at noon.) 2) From the K-line perspective, this is maintaining the 75-81 range I mentioned, just that this oscillation is very unpleasant. Actually, BTC is still relatively strong compared to the US stock market; it just gave back Wednesday's gains. Currently, 81-82 is a short-term important resistance level. Below that, 749 is waiting to be plundered. Then look at positions around 732 and 71, or more accurately, the current bottom is around 70-75. Unless the US stock market continues with black swan events, dropping 5% consecutively.I've always been puzzled by one thing: the crypto world talks every day about how scarce and valuable AI computing power is, yet several newly inaugurated governors in the US have announced they won't allow new data centers. Ohio, Georgia, and Texas are among them. Cleanview says 40% of the planned capacity is stuck in these states, and 17 referendums have outright rejected large data centers. So is it really a shortage of computing power, or is it that no one wants a data center near their home? $TAO and $FET represent the former, while the votes represent the latter. I haven't figured it out yet, so I'll just watch for now. The expansion of data centers in the United States has been held back by votes for the first time. The newly elected governors of Ohio, Georgia, Michigan, New Mexico, and Texas have publicly pledged to stop or delay statewide data center construction; the new governors of New York and Oregon have promised to extend existing moratoriums. This is not opposition from some small towns, but a change in stance at the state level. Cleanview's statistics clarify the scale: about 40% of the planned data center capacity in the U.S. is slated for these states. The most certain new computing power supply has 40% stuck in approvals and referendums. Additionally, 46 local referendum measures have passed or are expected to pass, with at least 17 directly banning the construction of large data centers. This is a hard constraint, not a delay. Why? The electricity and water bills for data centers are local expenses, noise and electricity price increases are borne by residents, while the profits go to distant cloud providers. Once the votes are in, local politics immediately respond. The bottleneck for AI computing power is shifting from chips to power access and land permits. For the crypto world, tokens like $TAO, $FET, and $RENDER, which rely on the AI computing power narrative, must face an uncomfortable short-term reality: the other half of the story is being held back, causing a pullback in sentiment. But demand hasn't disappeared, supply is limited, and the price for renting computing power may actually become firmer. The real beneficiaries are players who already have electricity and grid connection quotas. $BTC and $ETH are unrelated to this trend. One point worth considering: in the past two years, the race was about who could buy cards faster; going forward, it may be about who can secure electricity.SpaceX (SPCX) Weekly: Returned to the IPO price of 135 for the second time since listing. Real data (Yahoo, as of 11-04): Four trading days this week -6.4%, +1.2%, +3.6%, -3.81%, closing at $135.92, giving back the pre-election rebound; intraday on 11-04 once broke below 135 to 133.14, then pulled back above the IPO price at the close—there is clear buying defense around 135. Expanded to 64 trading days since listing: IPO price 135, highest 176.42 (10-21), lowest 105.11, currently +0.7%, completing two full rollercoaster cycles. This week's decline is macro-driven: the midterm election blue wave materialized, tech and AI repriced, Tesla down 10% the same day, with both companies losing about $37 billion in market value over two days. Event catalysts on 11-12: Starship Flight 15's first dual recovery; success could lead to valuation re-rating; combined with $40 billion off-balance-sheet chip financing (Goldman Sachs/Apollo syndicate, buying Nvidia leaseback) to expand computing power footprint. Technically, 135 is the lifeline: holding it confirms a double bottom, breaking it points to around 120. #美股遭大幅抛售:费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅 $BTC $SNDK $SOXL My first reaction when I saw this message was: Opening a store in a mall doesn't mean there will be daily foot traffic. Business is about input and output; I think the same applies to ETFs. Having a channel is good, but where the cash flow goes is the daily ledger that needs to be reviewed. According to SoSoValue data, on November 5th Eastern US time, the US ZEC and NEAR spot ETFs had net outflows of $10.9941 million and $0.7738 million respectively, totaling $11.7679 million. Among them, the Zcash ETF (ZCSH) had a net outflow of $10.9941 million, while the historical cumulative net inflow of the ZEC spot ETF remains $207 million. My judgment is that this is a short-term negative sentiment for funds, but not enough to sentence the long-term demand for these two assets. The outflow this time mainly focused on ZEC; summarizing it as both tracks falling out of favor is too rough an estimate. Single-day net outflow is the income and expenditure of that day, while cumulative net inflow is a longer-term account; the two cannot be mixed. My guess is that if outflows continue, the pressure on fund absorption needs more caution; looking at just one day is like seeing many returns in a store on a single day and directly concluding the business can't continue. For me, this message is a reminder that risk reserves cannot be skimped on, and ETFs should not be treated as faucets that automatically flow in funds. How would business friends view this kind of risk: would you wait for several consecutive days of cash flow, or judge based on asset scale and cumulative inflows?过去24小时,$BTC 从76000一路拉到80500附近,但真正值得盯的不是涨幅,而是爆仓结构里那个刺眼的反差:总爆仓7.4亿美元,空单占了4.9亿,多单只有2.5亿。价格往上走,被抬出场馆的却是押跌的一方。这不是普通的逼空,这是一次由事件驱动的仓位再定价。 把这条线索接上当下的市场叙事,逻辑就清楚了:中期选举落地,小非农数据同步公布,两件事叠在一起,把$BTC此前积压的观望情绪一次性释放。资金不是在赌方向,而是在赌不确定性消失。空头恰恰站在了“再等等看”的那一边,于是成了这轮行情的燃料。市场往往低估这种“事件真空期”的杀伤力——当压制价格的不是基本面而是犹豫,一旦犹豫被数据抹平,反弹的斜率会比多数人预期的更陡。 更值得注意的是价格行为本身。$BTC 冲到80500后没有继续加速,而是横盘震荡。这说明推动力来自空头回补而非新增多头建仓,属于仓位结构的修复,不是趋势资金的全面进场。换句话说,这轮上涨的“质量”需要下一根火柴来验证,而周五晚间的非农数据正是那根火柴。就业数据若强化12月加息预期,风险资产的估值逻辑会被重新拧紧;若数据偏软,当前这种空头回补的动能反而可能延续。两种情形下,8#AAOI high-speed optical module volume surge, can the Q3 earnings report exceed expectations? After 75543 broke down, there was no panic selling; instead, it was bought back to 76000 — even more notably, BTC fees have turned negative, with short positions clustering on two major coins simultaneously. Following up on Friday morning. First, the judgment: 75000 is temporarily defended by some, but it is not a confirmed stabilization; open interest remains at 610 million contracts, and leveraged positions have not been cleared. Continue short positions in the simulated market, watching two key levels today: a volume surge back above 77000 indicates short covering and the start of a short squeeze, so lightly follow with a quick position; if it cannot break above 77000 and 75162 breaks again, the next target is directly the 200-day moving average at 73169, with no mid-level scalp trades. A bit of background: last night the US semiconductor index fell 12%, the worst night since March 2020, with over $1 billion in liquidations across the network. The root cause of this decline lies in the weakening AI narrative, not an issue within the crypto space itself. Negative fees mean shorts are so crowded they have to pay longs; last Wednesday's squeeze was a prerequisite for this. But in a downtrend, squeeze rebounds are often just escapes for trapped longs, so don't mistake a rebound for a reversal. The two most dangerous moves in a downtrend are: bottom-fishing immediately after a drop, and only believing in a reversal after a rebound. $ETH $SNDK #闪迪MSCI调仓生效,NAND估值受关注 Yesterday, Sandisk experienced significant volatility, dropping sharply from 1100 to a low of 800, hitting a new phase low. Many are puzzled: wasn’t there an official announcement of a 1-for-8 stock split? Why did the stock plunge despite the split expectations? First, clarify a key point: a stock split does not equal positive price movement. A stock split is merely a division of shares, effective November 19, aimed at lowering the price per share to facilitate retail investor participation; the company's intrinsic value and shareholding proportions remain unchanged. This plunge is not caused by the stock split itself but by a collective weakening sentiment in the storage sector, combined with a loosening of long-term demand expectations for flash memory, leading to concentrated capital outflows and triggering this deep correction. Positive news turning negative—markets always price in expectations ahead of time. The storage sector is highly volatile; be cautious when chasing highs. Woke up from a sleep, and the group chat exploded again. This time, it's not just the crypto circle; even the US stock market took a heavy hit! The most direct trigger was: in the midterm elections, the Democratic Party took control of both the House and Senate and the Texas governor. The new governor promised during the campaign to suspend data center approvals. Goldman Sachs calculated that Texas alone accounts for a quarter of all data center expansions in the US. Previously, the core story behind the AI rally was that computing power could expand infinitely. Now that expansion expectations are being suppressed, the underlying logic supporting the AI rally is shaken, and computing power and semiconductor stocks were hit first. The crypto market also fell along with it. Many mining companies have long transformed into AI data centers, and many institutions hold AI computing power stocks and crypto assets in the same portfolio. When funds flee computing power stocks, they prioritize selling the most liquid $BTC and $ETH. This time, the billion-level liquidations were mostly long positions, representing a leveraged stampede that amplified the decline, not new negative news. In my view, this restrictive policy still needs to go through procedures and legal battles, but the market has already priced in this negative news in advance, representing a preemptive sell-off. #美中期选举后AI监管分歧引发行情波动 It's only been two days since the election results came out, and the side effects have already appeared. 76% of voters oppose building data centers in their communities. Even Meta has said that building new data centers will be more difficult in the future. Previously, AI was criticized for burning money, but now they simply won't let you build. Public opinion has become a new variable. So if you look at the US stock market, cloud service providers are rising, while data center stocks are falling. The same AI is now being hit in layers. Looking at our side, BTC is at 76237, last night it dipped to 75200, ETH at 2244, quite soft. The pressure from interest rates hasn't eased, AI regulation is back, buying power is still weak, three big mountains pressing down. So what happens next? Tonight at 9:30 is the non-farm payrolls report, the short-term judge. If the data is strong, expectations for rate hikes will heat up, and 75200 might be tested again, some are even calling for 73000. If the data is weak, there might be a bounce, but don't consider it a reversal. The current bearish factors are not just one line, but a bundle of lines. So my advice is, don't take sides before tonight. Betting on the data is the least profitable trade. Wait for it to land and see clearly before making a move. What do you think about tonight's non-farm payrolls? Is it a lifeline or the last straw that breaks the camel's back? #非农在即,就业数据能否强化12月加息预期? $BTC $ETH $ZEC $MU Previously, our posts also mentioned a profit and loss ratio issue, specifically in the storage sector, where the goal is to pull the highest multiples in the shortest time. Pulling 100x in a year on the US stock market is unprecedented and unlikely to be repeated, so I have been shorting because the profit and loss ratio is stronger. So far, this approach seems to be correct. Last night, when I was free, I also browsed Orbit; basically, everyone was bottom-fishing storage stocks, meaning the price is cheap enough, but very few people truly understand the US stock market and some broader environmental factors. The Democratic Party won, the market rallied inversely, then traded sideways all day, and by the morning close, it recorded a historic -6.89% drop. So will it fall further? Personally, I think, purely my personal opinion, it will continue to fall until mid-month. How will it fall? It will pull up then drop down, so you don’t feel it’s a big drop. It won’t be a big rebound either; it’s just tormenting people.#Oklo核能供电布局距离商业化还有多远? ⚠️Not investment advice OKLO: • Demonstration reactor (INL) expected to connect to the grid in 2028, small-scale power supply implementation; Meta data center nuclear power project expected to start scaled power supply by 2030 • Positives: Obtained NRC design criteria approval, Meta framework intention, isotope business can be monetized earlier • Challenges: No commercial operation license, HALEU fuel shortage, advanced reactor construction schedules prone to delays, most agreements are frameworks rather than formal power purchase contracts In short: Small demonstration about 2 years away, AI data center scaled power supply at least 4 years away, approvals and fuel are the biggest variables. $SNDK Previously, our posts also mentioned a profit and loss ratio issue, specifically in the storage sector, where the goal is to pull the highest multiples in the shortest time. In one year, the US stock market pulled 100 times, unprecedented and unlikely to be repeated, so I have been shorting because the profit and loss ratio is stronger. So far, this approach seems correct. Last night, when I was free, I also browsed Orbit; basically, everyone was bottom-fishing storage stocks, meaning the price is cheap enough, but very few people truly understand the US stock market and some broader environmental factors. The Democratic Party won, the market reversed and rose, then consolidated sideways all day. By the morning close, it recorded a historic -6.89% drop. So will it fall further? Personally, just my opinion, I think it will continue to fall until mid-month. How will it fall? It will rise a bit then fall a bit, so you won't feel it's a big drop. It won't be a big rebound either; it will just be torturous. $CORE btcs.sa has already exited the core business, you can check espiebi. Also, not sure if it's a coincidence or has deeper meaning, this company holds 68.3 million core, and in the b14g theft incident, the hacker left about 68 million recovered, quite interesting The previous article questioned whether it was a true continuation or a short squeeze finale. The sharp drop in US AI stocks gave a direct answer: the entire market liquidated over $1 billion, $ETH plunged 7.98% to 2,230.05, while only $CAP rose against the trend by 12.66% to 0.10865. During the sell-off, ETH saw a net inflow of 45,385 coins into exchanges in a single day, open interest dropped by 14.8%, the active buy/sell volume ratio was only 0.86, but the long/short ratio surged from 1.35 to 3.21; the speculative capital shifting to CAP was supported by a high funding rate of +0.0613% and 2.9 times volume. We held a long ETH position for 21 hours and stopped out at -34.9%; CAP long positions were successively liquidated at -19.9% and -61.2%, then a reopened CAP long is now +21.6%, with a stop loss at 0.10141, 7.0% away from the current price. ETH must reclaim the 4H EMA50 (2,310.73) to stabilize; breaking below the 7-day low of 2,171.52 would mean further downside; CAP continues to attack after surpassing the 7-day high of 0.11281, but breaking below the 4H EMA20 (0.0904935) would indicate weakness. Despite the surge in ETH long/short ratio, spot inflows are seen—can retail bottom-fishers withstand the selling pressure this time? #ETH #CAP #MarketAnalysis Personal observation, not investment advice, please assess risks independently.Forgive my jinx, but unfortunately, it came true. The rebound is not a reversal, but there’s no need to worry too much! Since the midterm elections in 2006 when both chambers switched to the opposing party, the US stock market mainly experienced fluctuations rather than a major drop. Although the Democratic Party controls Congress and there are frictions with Trump, there is no friction between the two parties themselves. I believe AI stocks are not a bubble burst. First, human nature is similarLast night, the US stock market experienced a major correction, with the Nasdaq plunging 5.5%. The market had rebounded the day before due to the midterm election results, but the gains were completely wiped out in just one day. The crypto market was not spared either; Bitcoin fell from around $81,000 to below $76,000. $BTC This downturn was not without warning, with the most direct cause being market concerns about the investment prospects in the AI industry. Over the past two years, AI has been one of the most important drivers of the US stock market's rise. Whether it’s chip companies like Nvidia or cloud service giants like Amazon and Microsoft, they have all been continuously increasing their AI-related investments. However, as data center construction continues to expand, capital is starting to focus on another issue: when will such massive investments actually translate into real profits? Data center construction requires huge amounts of capital, and chip procurement, power supply, and infrastructure support are also driving up corporate capital expenditures. Some companies have even begun to rely more on debt financing. The scale of investment is growing, but the profitability of AI businesses still needs time to be proven, causing the market to reassess previously overly optimistic growth expectations. As a result, the semiconductor sector has become a major sell-off zone, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropping sharply, and tech stocks like Nvidia and AMD also experiencing significant pullbacks. The midterm election results have also brought uncertainty to the market. After the Democrats gained an advantage in the elections, investors began to focus on the future attitudes of Congress and local governments toward AI infrastructure construction. Data centers not only involve corporate investment but also relate to power supply, water usage, and residents' living costs. For example, the new governor of Texas... Woke up in the middle of the night and found that options, institutions, and liquidations don't match up. Options show 58.35% bullish positions, but liquidations show 64.2% short positions. The directions on both sides simply don't align. Let me break it down first. The bullish bets pile up on paper, but the positions don't follow through—that's what I mean by not matching. Only after breaking it down do I realize the hype is fake. 🤔 BTC: Positions haven't moved in 24 hours, a ballast stone; no movement means everyone is waiting for it to move first. ETH: Positions increased by 4.02%, volume surged by 30.59%, the hottest in the market and the only real position increase among the four coins. SOL: Positions only increased by 0.54%, following along, no own opinion. ZEC: Positions increased by 0.47%, but volume dropped by 21.90%, turnover cooled off significantly. 😅 Let's cross-check the three layers again: Liquidations show 64.2% short positions, those chasing shorts are still getting hit; options show 58.35% bullish positions, bets lean long; institutional CME positions at $7.52 billion, increased by 5.79%, institutions moved first. The three layers each tell a different story: liquidations are squeezing shorts, options are betting long, institutions are adding positions, directions are completely opposed. With conflicting directions, chasing either side risks getting hurt. ZEC upgrade follows block schedule, expected early November. I treat it as a long-term hook, not a current reason. When things don't match, my only approach is to wait. Wait for options and positions to align before deciding whether to follow. CME moved first, but that doesn't mean the whole market moved. If alignment doesn't come, I'd rather miss out than chase wrongly. Before the three layers align, I won't leverage, just wait for positions to show their stance first.GMX has expanded the coverage of its stablecoin vault to seven markets at once: BTC, ETH, NEAR, ZEC, HYPE, XRP, SOL. The USDG deposited will be distributed across all these markets, with earnings coming from the trading volume of these markets, withdrawable at any time, and a launch promotion running until November 30. What’s truly worth noting is not "supporting seven coins," but the structure of "one vault simultaneously capturing the trading volume of seven markets." Previously, stablecoin yield farming was mostly single-pool single-coin; you chose a pool and only bore that pool’s risk. Now, the same USDG is spread across seven markets, and the yield becomes a weighted result of the trading volumes of these seven markets. Mechanically, this type of vault acts as the counterparty and liquidity source for these markets, earning from the fees paid by traders. The more active the trading, the more you earn; if the market cools down, the yield drops. It doesn’t sell fixed interest but packages the activity level of seven markets into a share that can be entered and exited at any time. For retail investors, the threshold is indeed lowered: no need to individually provide liquidity or monitor liquidation lines of single pools; a single deposit automatically diversifies. For $GMX, a larger vault supports the overall asset scale of the protocol. One point to consider: the volatility and liquidity of ZEC and HYPE are not on the same level as $BTC and $ETH, and the announcement does not specify how weights are allocated. Diversification sounds safe, but if weights are equal, the risk is determined by the weakest market. Check the allocation ratio before depositing.表面都在涨,真正能接住的却没几个。 这波到底是追涨窗口,还是又一次假热闹? 我先把节奏定一下:现在更像消息落地后的情绪修复段,不是全面进攻段。选举不确定性消退、政策担忧缓和,BTC 回到 81,000 美元上方,主流币先走了一步。但盘面给我的感觉是,指数热闹、承接分层,追高和低吸的体感完全不一样。 真正值得看的是跨市场联动这条线。美中期选举后 AI 监管分歧带来的波动,会先传导到风险偏好,再传导到加密内部的板块选择。也就是说,市场现在交易的不是"坏消息没了"这么简单,而是在提前计价"政策能见度变高之后,资金敢不敢回到有真实收入的标的"。BTC 稳住是情绪底座,ETH 和山寨能不能跟上,要看资金愿不愿意从防守位往进攻位挪。 偏多的一面:政策不确定性下降,确实会改善风险偏好;BTC 站回 81,000 美元,给了市场一个可以讲修复故事的锚。HYPE 这类有协议收入、回购销毁闭环的 DEX 资产,容易被拿来当"真现金流"样本;UNI 的改革费和销毁挂钩、v4 多链和 Hooks 继续吸流动性、没有大额解锁包袱,属于估值重看但不宜追高的类型;LINK 连接 RWA 和机构上链需求,弹性不炸裂,#美中期选举后AI监管分歧引发行情波动 $BTC Last night was the direct trigger: the Nasdaq plummeted, dragging down risk assets and hitting cryptocurrencies $ETH Last night BTC dropped from 80,800 to 75,500, ETH fell over 7%, driven by four combined negative factors: US tech stocks crash: Nasdaq -5.52%, Philadelphia Semiconductor Index -12%, AI spending concerns intensified, BTC sold off as a high beta asset; Leveraged liquidations chain reaction: over $1.08 billion liquidated in 24h, 88% long positions, a long squeeze triggered after breaking below 78,000; Weakening liquidity: ETF net outflow of $201 million, Coinbase Premium turned negative, insufficient institutional buying; Pre-nonfarm risk aversion: market cut positions ahead, waiting for tonight's data to set direction. Summary: Macro deleveraging, non-crypto sector defaults. Support at 75K, but unable to hold 80K means weakness persists. Short term focus on tonight's nonfarm: hot data → retest 75K; cold data → recovery towards 79K-80K. Trading strategy: no chasing shorts, no catching falling knives, 75K-76.5K is the critical zone, break below targets 73K. Historical data shows that in past cycles studied, Bitcoin's premium relative to this cost basis has reached at least 85%. Based on the current real market average, this corresponds to approximately $142,260. We regard this as a reference level to observe the trend of this bull market, not as a minimum target or final peak: historically, prices have continued to rise after surpassing this level, but whether a similar trend can recur remains uncertain. Historical experience indicates that bull markets only peak after Bitcoin's premium relative to this cost basis (the percentage by which market price exceeds average cost) reaches at least 85%. Based on the current real market average, this corresponds to $142,260. We view this as the minimum trigger threshold for the bull market to start pushing toward the peak, not a ceiling, and certainly not the final peak: historically, prices usually continue to rise significantly after surpassing this level. As Bitcoin rises and turnover (chips changing hands between old and new holders) increases, the average holding cost will rise accordingly: some holders take profits, new buyers enter at higher prices, and this process itself pushes the target level higher, meaning the peak of this bull market should be above $142,260. #交易之声:你的经验值得被听到 $BTC After the midterm elections, the AI regulatory narrative has started, first let's see if Clarity-type legislation is progressing. At first, I also thought that if the Democrats took both chambers, crypto legislation would quickly be implemented. Looking at NBC exit polls, 76% oppose building data centers in their own communities, and 57% believe AI does more harm than good to society. Public sentiment is quite firm on this. On the legislative side, The Block cited Digital Chamber saying: Democratic control of Congress does not mean comprehensive crypto legislation is completely dead, but the old way of bypassing moderate Democrats no longer works. They specifically named Warren as a leading candidate for Senate Banking Chair and identified this committee as one of the biggest obstacles to Clarity. The September Senate procedural vote on Clarity failed, and no new bipartisan timetable has been posted since. Don't interpret the Nasdaq or crypto pullback as regulatory bills having already been passed. If next time the congressional calendar shows bipartisan hearing dates for Clarity or similar market structure bills, I'll admit I underestimated this situation. #美中期选举后AI监管分歧引发行情波动 After 9 years of struggling independently, Zilliqa finally admits defeat: it will transform itself into Ethereum's Layer 2, specifically serving regulated institutions. The ZIL token will not disappear; holders don't need to take any action for now and should wait for the official announcement of technical details. From another perspective, the original chain lacked sufficient usage, capital, and liquidity, and security incidents further drove up maintenance costs. So they decided to hand over settlement to Ethereum, embedding identity verification and compliance mechanisms to create a permissioned market for compliant players. Simply put, they are moving themselves from an "isolated island" into Ethereum's "big family," hoping to leverage the large ecosystem to solve liquidity and security issues. After all, the total market cap of stablecoins has reached nearly $300 billion, with a 1.65% drop over 7 days, and on-chain liquidity is tightening. Do you think this move can help Zilliqa regain its footing? #OrbitTech