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📊 Daily Brief｜November 5, 2026
① 📊 Market Overview
Total crypto market cap is about $2.7–2.76 trillion, BTC around $80.5K, up about 3%–4% in 24h, basically flat over 7 days; BTC dominance about 59%–60%. 24h trading volume about $80.5 billion. BTC ETF net inflow on 11/4 was $74.6 million, ending 3 consecutive days of outflows, but still net outflow about $752 million over the past 7 trading days, and about $516 million outflow in October; institutional funds have not truly reversed yet.
② 📈 Phase Assessment
Early weak bull / bottom confirmation period. Bull Score 56/100; Altcoin Season about 47. BTC reclaiming 80K is a positive signal, but ETF mid-term flows remain weak, altcoins have not fully started.
③ 🎯 Operation Suggestions
⬆️ Holding above 82.8K turns strong; breaking through 86.5–87K increases position; breaking 90K clearly confirms main uptrend probability.
⬇️ Watch at 78K; first add position at 75K, second add at 70K, key add at 65K.
④ 🚀 Potential Coin PONS
💡 Quote of the day:
"80K is a rebound, 82.8K is turning strong, 87K is confirmation; the most valuable now is not the courage to chase the rise, but having bullets left even if it falls below 75K." #Tether旗下XAUT黄金储备增长59%
Tether Gold (XAUT) gold reserves have increased by 59% this year, rising from about 16.2 tons at the end of 2025 to 25.7 tons, with a market value reaching $3.44 billion, setting a record.
The specific figures are as follows: reserves were 520,000 ounces at the beginning of the year, increasing to 827,000 ounces by the end of the third quarter, an addition of 766 gold bars, all stored in Switzerland and compliant with London Good Delivery standards. User holdings have increased by 73% this year, with a net increase of over 9 tons of gold exposure.
Interestingly, despite significant gold price fluctuations this year, XAUT holders have consistently increased their positions. Tether CEO Ardoino states this reflects a long-term belief in gold rather than chasing short-term prices. The World Gold Council estimates that the tokenized gold market could unlock approximately $700 billion in potential demand.
However, it should be noted that this data comes from a report issued by Tether itself; third parties only conduct sample inspections rather than auditing each individual gold bar. Transparency is stronger than many projects but still falls short of a "fully independent audit."The shadowless surgical light above the operating table has been turned on: a new stent called tokenization is being implanted into the aorta of the traditional custody system. Morgan Stanley is among the first twenty institutions entering the catheterization lab, and DTCC made the incision on October 28, covering compliant US stocks, ETFs, and government bonds, initially handling only thirty-four vessels.
But there is a number on the monitor that must be clearly seen: $30 trillion is the total cross-sectional area of "qualified vessels," not the actual blood flow perfusion volume. Currently, only $3.8 billion worth of tokenized stocks are truly circulating on-chain, equivalent to just a small amount of contrast agent pumped into the entire circulatory system. Qualified ≠ activated; this is the essential difference between an angiography report and real hemodynamics—the plaques remain, but the catheter is already in place.
The market linkage of XTSM cannot be treated as a "positive news sell-off"—that is outpatient thinking. What must be observed are the three anastomoses: inter-institutional transfer, on-chain settlement, and collateral management. If any one of these anastomoses leaks, the entire surgery must be converted. The essence of tokenized stocks circulating on-chain is connecting the extracorporeal circulation machine to the original autologous circulation, requiring heparin anticoagulation—insufficient anticoagulation causes thrombosis, excessive anticoagulation causes bleeding, and the $3.8 billion pool depth simply cannot support a large dose injection.
The real lesion is not in tokenization itself but in the rejection reaction of the custody infrastructure. DTCC is the immune system, tokenization is the foreign blood vessel transplanted in, and Morgan Stanley and these institutions are the first successfully matched recipients. But between the $30 trillion qualified donors and the $3.8 billion actual implantation, there is a long tissue compatibility window period. No matter how well the preoperative assessment is done, whether blood pressure drops during surgery depends on anesthesia depth and volume responsiveness.
What I see is a mismatch in vital signs: the on-chain settlement frequency is jumping, but the blood flow in the custody layer has not caught up. This is early postoperative low cardiac output—not that the heart is not beating, but the preload is insufficient. Once the collateral management venous pathway is unobstructed, perfusion pressure will naturally be reestablished; but before that, any monitoring data that reads "qualified asset size" as "actual trading depth" is looking at a false image.
The premise of immediate postoperative extubation is that the heart can beat on its own. What I am watching is the thin line of $3.8 billion on the monitor, weakly and stubbornly pulsating on the $30 trillion vascular bed. #morganstanleyjoinsdtccAfter an $86.5 million move, the opponent quietly withdrew eight percentage points of exchange value from the board — this is the most dangerous kind of "false initiative" in the midgame. It looks like the pawns have crossed the river, but in fact, the rear flank is already restrained.
First, look at the pawn structure. Revenue increased by 17% year-over-year, but net profit only rose by 5%. In chess terms, this is called "high piece activity but low effective threat." USDC on-chain transaction volume surged by 49%, equivalent to stacking four pawns in the center, controlling the entire d4, e4, and f4 squares — a beautiful control of the board, but controlling squares does not equal capturing pieces. Reserve income actually fell by 8% to $658 million, which is the real pain point: your central pawns have no reinforcements, and the cruiser-like income engine (reserve asset yield) is sinking, while the opponent is slowly exchanging pieces on the rear flank.
What really holds this position? A lone pawn — the token presale on the Arc chain contributed $182 million, almost shouldering the entire increment of "other income." A grandmaster would immediately recognize this as a tactical sacrifice for an attack; it looks good short-term, but long-term depends on whether subsequent piece deployment can be replenished. Once the lone pawn is blocked, the entire diagonal line is lost.
Next, look at the linkage on the $xQQQ flank. The tokenized US stock targets and stablecoin cash flows do not coexist on the same chessboard; their linkage is essentially "two variations within the same opening system," sharing liquidity temperature but each with its own timeline. When reserve yields decline, the narrative focus shifts from "interest spread" to "on-chain traffic + new chain issuance," marking a formation change — from a closed layout to an open layout. The initiative remains in hand, but the margin for error narrows significantly.
My judgment is clear: transaction volume is space, net profit is substance, and this season’s game has space winning, substance holding steady, and time favoring the opponent. The decline in reserve yields is a chronic restraint, while presale income is a one-time check — a check does not equal checkmate; if the opponent blocks one step, you have to recalculate twenty moves.
The deadliest illusion on the board is mistaking "positional advantage" for "winning position," then continuing to add pawns when it’s time to exchange pieces. #CircleQ3USDCVolumeUp49% Looking at Bitcoin's weekly chart today, I found a pretty interesting detail!
In the early bull run of 2023, after $BTC broke above the 50-week moving average, it took a full 182 days before it came back to retest this moving average. But this time? Only 49 days!
Even more striking, the lowest point this week dropped to $75,645, while the 50-week moving average was at $75,614, just $31 apart—almost as if measured with a ruler! Then Bitcoin was pulled back to around $80,600. Last time it took half a year to retest, this time it was done in less than two months, clearly a much faster pace.
I actually think an early retest isn't necessarily a bad thing. After such heavy selling pressure, being caught at a key level is definitely not easy. Of course, the week hasn't closed yet, so it's a bit early to celebrate. I just wonder, after this retest is complete, will it start another big rally like in 2023?
This bull may have a bad temper, but its retests are pretty punctual!Sony's net profit this quarter is ¥449.6 billion, while Wall Street estimated ¥349 billion, exceeding expectations by 29%. The full-year revenue, operating profit, net profit, and dividends have all been revised upward. I don't see much to criticize about this quarter's figures; what to watch tonight in the US stock market is whether the ADR's 6.7% gain at opening can hold until the close. The money is made from movies and games. This year's "Spider-Man" global box office exceeded $2.5 billion, and the movie segment's operating profit this quarter is about seven times that of last year. The gaming segment's operating profit increased by 83%, and even after excluding last year's one-time loss of ¥49.8 billion, it still grew by 29%. However, PS5 sales this quarter were only 2.6 million units, compared to 3.9 million units in the same period last year. The "Wolverine" game released in September sold over 2.4 million copies. CFO Toru said that after so many years of investing in entertainment, they finally have blockbusters every year. The full-year guidance has been significantly raised. Operating profit was revised from ¥1.72 trillion to ¥1.87 trillion, and net profit from ¥1.21 trillion to ¥1.33 trillion. The full-year profit guidance for gaming, music, movies, and image sensors has all been raised, and the annual dividend was also increased to ¥35. There are also some less clean aspects. Operating profit exceeded ¥1 trillion for the first half of the year; the company said part of this includes US tariff refunds and some demand coming earlier than expected. For image sensors, there is concern about rising storage prices, and the conference call mentioned that the smartphone market is down about 20% year-over-year. Over in Tokyo, 6758 Before inserting satellite antennas into the city's load-bearing walls, first check if the foundation has reserved settlement joints for billion-level connections—this long-term agreement between Qualcomm and SpaceX is not just another beautiful rendering, but a covert transformation that integrates the space-based network into the ground 5G structural layer.
When I review drawings, I fear two things most: a stunning facade with a structural calculation book as thin as a napkin; nodes densely packed, yet no one can clearly explain the load-bearing paths. This collaboration bundles the Dragonwing chip, software, Starlink Mobile ground 5G network, and satellite links into a hybrid structure. Deployment only begins in 2027, followed by the rollout of tens of thousands of base stations over several years. This timeline is not a marketing calendar but a construction organization design: the chip is the embedded part, software is the connection node, the base station is the pile foundation and column, spectrum and backhaul form the beam and column system, and satellite coverage is the rooftop truss. If any layer lacks stiffness, the entire building will creak under wind loads. Financial terms are undisclosed, effectively rolling the cost list into the drawing tube—laymen only look at height, experts first ask where the foundation bearing layer is and whether cash flow can cover the construction period.
Stock tokens like $xAMZN are more like glass curtain walls hanging outside the main structure: highly reflective and conductive, but not load-bearing. Market linkage can amplify news into short-term interlayer displacement but cannot replace fundamental acceptance. User growth is live load, revenue is operational cash flow, and base station deployment progress is the main acceptance node; without all three in place simultaneously, the deformation joint between satellite and ground networks will shift from a technical issue to a valuation problem. What truly determines the lifespan of this "integrated space-ground-air" building is not the lights at the press conference but whether the first batch of base stations in 2027 can be constructed according to plan, whether chips and software can mesh within existing network nodes, and whether the subsequent expansion reserves an extensible column grid.
When I look at projects like this, I first examine underground, then the skyline; first the nodes, then the curtain wall. If the base station columns in 2027 cannot be installed on schedule, the deformation joint between satellite and ground networks will appear first in valuation models, not in renderings. #spacexqualcomm5gdealOn the radar echo, a cloud system originally judged as weak convection suddenly erupted into a strong single cell over Tokyo Bay—Sony's second-quarter revenue rose 10.3% year-on-year, reaching ¥3.43 trillion, and operating profit surged 45.1% to ¥622.3 billion, directly surpassing the forecast upper limits of various numerical models. This is not a slowly rising stratocumulus; it is explosive convection formed by warm, moist air colliding with a high-altitude jet stream, with vertical speeds far exceeding expectations.
Looking at the sounding curve, the lifted condensation level was lowered by two warm, moist airflows: the gaming and film & TV business segments simultaneously transported moisture upward, releasing latent heat of condensation, igniting the entire atmospheric instability energy at once. Management immediately raised the full-year operating profit guidance to ¥1.87 trillion and net profit attributable to the parent company to ¥1.33 trillion—equivalent to further lowering the central pressure of the entire weather system, revising the circulation intensity upward, and extending the warm ridge further in the medium-term forecast.
However, the wind speed at ground observation stations is not determined solely by the local overhead atmosphere. $xORCL, a US stock tokenized asset, has a remote correlation with Tokyo's surface pressure: the earnings report is a short-term strong convection, but the token market is the visibility that determines whether you can safely take off and land. What needs attention now is not the impressive profit growth figures, but the liquid water content in the market—whether the liquidity thickness is sufficient to support the precipitation intensity of this emotional wave, and whether the temperature-dew point spread between price and net asset value is narrowing; the wider the spread, the more it indicates an inversion cap near the surface layer, suppressing the updraft, making the rise prone to dissipate after forced lifting at the boundary layer top.
More attention should be paid to the shear line. The single quarter's unexpected outperformance is essentially an isolated convective cell, with a lifespan usually only a few hours to a day; it does not equal a seasonal transition. The real circulation adjustment depends on three things: the precipitation efficiency of the guidance fulfillment, the yen exchange rate as the underlying moisture channel, and the sea surface temperature anomalies of the hardware cycle. If the sea temperature does not cooperate, even the strongest convection will quickly collapse after the invasion of dry cold air, leaving only a short-term strong wind at the surface.
No need for disclaimers; the meteorological agency only issues forecasts and is not responsible for flight losses.
The current judgment is: the strong single cell over Tokyo Bay has entered maturity, with echo tops approaching the tropopause, short-term precipitation efficiency extremely high, but signs of dry intrusion at the periphery have already begun to appear on satellite cloud images. #sonyq2profitup45%$ACU is trading at $0.12297 (+5.12%), strengthening within its 24h range between $0.11414 and $0.12383.
Price is holding above MA5 ($0.12275), MA10 ($0.12205), and MA20 ($0.12143), after bouncing from the 24h low at $0.11414.
Driven by $431.11K USDT in daily turnover and 3.50M $ACU in 24h volume, holding above $0.12297 could open the way for a push back toward the $0.12383 high.
@OKX成长学院 #DailyOrbit A major market move may be coming, and the Democratic Party is very likely to do the following:
1. Restrict the political and business power of Trump and his family
2. Launch a congressional investigation into crypto projects related to the Trump family
3. There are already internal voices pushing for Trump's impeachment
4. Re-examine Trump's pardon of CZ
The Republican loss in the midterm elections has become a turning point for this market trend. The closer to the bottom, the more unsettled the last three to four months become. $BTC $ETH $SNDK #非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ Sentiment and Short-Term Observations
The Fear and Greed Index rose from 26 on Monday to 34, still within the "Fear" range; BTC Dominance remains around 60%. Whales continue accumulating during ETH's decline: over the past two days, they have bought a total of 320,000 ETH (approximately $1.12 billion), and a single address has built a position exceeding $14.76 million in ETH within three days, at an average price of about $2,352. However, it remains uncertain whether whale buying can offset the contraction in incremental liquidity (stablecoin supply decreased by about $7.5 billion in October, and DeFi TVL dropped by 10.87%).
In the short term, three lines need close monitoring: whether BTC can hold above $80,000—if it continues to fail, the downside will be the next liquidation zone rather than traditional support; whether IBIT outflows persist—if Fidelity's purchases are insufficient to cover BlackRock's redemptions, the ETF's "stopgap" may be just a one-day noise; and the movement pace of stolen funds on THORChain—Elliptic believes the stolen funds have not yet been cashed out on a large scale, and off-exchange gradual liquidation is the next phase to watch.
#非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ $SKY is preparing to take control of the stablecoin cross-chain channel. The Osero Spell on November 19 includes a batch of adjustments, with the core being the interoperability of the Osero liquidity layer between Ethereum mainnet and Base, and $USDC cross-chain using Circle's CCTP.
It's worth mentioning the mechanism of CCTP: it doesn't lock an amount on one chain and then issue an IOU on another chain; instead, it burns on the source chain and mints natively on the target chain. There is no wrapped asset in the middle, so there is no risk of "I trust this bridge won't run away." The money paid across chains is essentially the premium for this trust.
The proposal involves 7 adjustments across two chains: enabling CCTP on both, configuring cross-chain limits, setting permission management on the Base side, and integrating the USDC vault. The vault on the Base side is managed by Gauntlet, running on Morpho Vault V2, initially configured with $USDC.
The logic is consistent: first establish a native channel, then put the transferred funds into a strategy-managed vault to earn yield. Users don't need to find bridges themselves; the path is paved by the protocol.
This is not just a feature update; it's making "cross-chain plus yield" a standard component. Idle $USDC on the $ETH mainnet now has a smoother exit.
One question remains: since cross-chain limits and Base-side permissions are written in, who adjusts the limits and how often? That is the real on/off switch for this channel.GRVT fell nearly 10%, but contract open interest did not show a significant decline.
On OKX from 20:00 to 21:00, the spot price dropped from 0.21478 to 0.21041, with a trading volume of $137,300, which is 2.4 times the average of the previous six hours. In the same hour, the open interest decreased from 14,119,100 contracts to 14,065,400 contracts, a reduction of only 0.38%. As of 22:30, the spot price was about 0.20697, with an estimated funding rate of approximately -0.0277%.
My judgment is that the decline has not been accompanied by a significant reduction in open interest, so subsequent volatility may continue to increase. The open interest figures do not distinguish between longs and shorts, and the negative funding rate does not prove that new short positions are increasing.
If the hourly candle later closes back near 0.21, with trading volume falling and open interest significantly decreasing, I will lower this assessment.
$GRVT $AAVE
Stani said that cooperating with Kraken's parent company Payward can bring Aave to more retail and institutional investors. The announcement was made at 22:02, and Kraken itself bought tokens first. I only half believe this.
The market did move. At 22:00, this 1H candle rose from 130.91 to 133.72, closing at 133.16, with 543,000 contracts worth $7.19 million; the previous candle had 99,000 contracts worth $1.29 million, more than five times.
But the magnitude doesn't match. The 24h range was only from 130.84 to 133.06, a 1.7% increase. 136.94 was the high left at 23:00 last night, then it slid all day to 129.6, and at 20:00 it even dipped to 130.04. Positions increased from 14.69 million at 19:00 to 15.01 million, up 320,000 or 2%—volume increased more than fivefold, but positions only rose by two points, spot side is buying, no new leverage coming in.
The pool is also shallow. Within 1%, 510,000 bought and 480,000 sold; 24h turnover was 43.52 million against 15 million positions, nearly thirty times turnover, all short-term. Fee rate 0.0069%, 69%, pulled a bit but more than 70% of longs didn't rush to raise prices. A 15 million pool, can it accommodate Kraken's institutional narrative?
#非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ $SOL
Samsung Wallet connects to USDC accounts on Solana, 82 million devices, breaking news at 21:51. The numbers look big, but what goes in is the USDC ledger, not the SOL wallet. The channel and the buying side are two different things.
The market is more straightforward. At 20:00, the 1H candle traded 900,000 contracts, $86.03 million, dropping from 96.47 to 94.84. At 21:00, 300,000 contracts; at 22:00, 140,000 contracts, shrinking by six and a half times. The price is grinding between 94.9 and 95.6, now at 95.1, three points below last night’s 98.13 candle.
Positions are decreasing. At 19:00, 3.505 million contracts; at 20:00, 3.462 million, down $8.5 million, 2.5%, and basically unchanged in the last two hours. The fee rate is 0.006%, only 60% of the 0.01 benchmark, with a perpetual discount of 4 basis points. It’s not new shorts pressing down; it’s longs deleveraging themselves.
This afternoon I said upgrades are the market makers’ business; I still don’t count this wallet news as short-term gains. To move it, watch if 96.5 can be reclaimed; the 82 million figure can’t push the price.
#非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ The moment the market suddenly lifted together, my first reaction was not to chase the price, but to check if the derivatives side had tightened first. Is this wave really a short squeeze, or has new money truly entered the market? BTC is reported at $80,693, up 4.66%, ETH at $2,429, up 7.18%, SOL at $95.98, up 4.18%. All three bounced together, the rhythm very much like a concentrated position cleanup. ETH's gains lead the way, which usually indicates a marginal recovery in risk appetite, but from the derivatives perspective, what concerns me more is: before this rally, were leveraged longs already worn down, and have short positions piled up to a level easily squeezed? If the rise is mainly driven by short covering and passive buybacks, it may come quickly and retreat just as fast, making chasing the high less cost-effective. The bullish path is actually clear: as long as the funding rate does not spike simultaneously, it means this rally hasn't been overly polluted by leverage, and spot support is more solid. There is then a chance for the market to move from sentiment repair to trend continuation, with ETH leading the rally and potentially driving a catch-up in altcoins. But the risk is also hidden here—if the price rises while open interest quickly accumulates and funding rates turn positive or even overheated, that is a typical crowded long scenario, where a small pullback can trigger a chain of liquidations, erasing the gains. Looking at the news, Circle's Q3 revenue exceeded expectations, and USDC on-chain transaction volume increased by 49%. This kind of stablecoin-side activity is a warm underlying tone, indicating that on-chain settlement demand has not flattened; meanwhile, in the U.S. midterm elections, the Democrats have taken#CircleQ3 revenue exceeds expectations, USDC on-chain trading volume grows 49% 80000, nonfarm payroll expectations push the market up early
Nonfarm employment data for October will be released on Friday, BTC rebounds from 75000 to hold steady at 80000, ETH surges to 2400, with a noticeably stronger rebound. This round of rise is just funds betting early on policy expectations, not indicating that the rate cut path is locked in.
There is heavy selling pressure accumulated between 82000 and 85000; weak employment data will open up upside space for the market, while strong data will suppress risk assets. This set of game theory will become invalid if BTC effectively breaks below 75000.
$BTC $ETH $SOL Lorenzo Valente, Head of Digital Asset Research at ARK Invest, pointed out that since 2018, the crypto industry has suffered annual losses from hacks averaging 24 basis points (0.24%) of the total market capitalization. Valente describes these losses as a hidden cost ultimately borne by users, which undermines trust and returns in the industry. Continuous Drag on Returns The annual loss of 24 basis points may seem small, but compounded over time, it represents billions of dollars stolen. Based on recent crypto market capitalizations fluctuating between $1 trillion and $3 trillion, this translates to annual losses of $2.4 billion to $7.2 billion. These losses stem from exchange breaches, DeFi protocol exploits, cross-chain bridge attacks, and private key leaks. Valente's analysis emphasizes that security remains a systemic issue rather than isolated incidents. Although individual projects may recover, the cumulative effect continuously drags down industry reputation and poses a barrier to broader institutional adoption. Who Bears the Cost? Ultimately, users bear the burden through multiple channels: Direct losses: Funds stolen from wallets and protocols are rarely recovered. Higher fees and insurance costs: Platforms pass security expenses onto customers. Declining confidence: Repeated breaches hinder retail and institutional participation, suppressing valuations. Regulatory backlash: High-profile hacks trigger stricter regulations, with increased compliance costs also passed on to users. The decentralized nature of many protocols often means there is no central entity to compensate victims, leaving users Hello everyone, I am Mosheng, making profits in the crypto circle and earning 10,000 U
The global semiconductor sector is linked; when US storage and semiconductor stocks fall, Korean storage stocks follow with a chain reaction plunge; market concerns over AI regulation and macro risks further amplify panic, even triggering the Korea Exchange to pause programmatic sell orders, creating a short-term stampede effect
The previous AI storage rally pushed SK Hynix's valuation very high. Once expectations loosen, a large amount of profit-taking will concentrate on exiting, causing a very sharp pullback. Even if the earnings report continues to set historical profits, it cannot stop the capital from slashing valuations#非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ $SKHYNIX BTC rebounds to 80,000, ETH is stronger, so why did HYPE fall?
There is a detail worth noting in today's market: $BTC is around $80,160, up about 2.3% in 24 hours; $ETH is about $2,413, up about 4.3%; but $HYPE has dropped about 3%. The overall market is rebounding, but funds are not evenly distributed, and a divergence between strong and weak has appeared.
Looking at the capital structure: BTC futures open interest remains near $53.4 billion, with no significant expansion during the rebound. The US spot BTC ETF had a net inflow of $74.6 million on November 4, but the cumulative net outflow over the last 7 settled trading days is still about $752 million. A single-day inflow does not mean institutions have resumed sustained buying.
My judgment is that this rebound includes short covering and risk sentiment repair, and it cannot yet be directly considered the start of a new comprehensive upward trend. Next, the focus is on whether BTC can hold $80,000, whether ETFs can have continuous inflows, and whether ETH's relative strength can continue.
If the overall market continues to rise but only a few coins strengthen, would you chase the strong coins or wait for BTC funds to truly return?
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 #非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ The nearly 20% correction in crude oil this round is a very suitable case to understand the value of "technical analysis."
In fact, since crude oil started to correct at the end of October, there has been no real reconciliation between the US and Iran, attacks on commercial ships by Iran continue, and the situation in the Middle East has not substantially eased, yet crude oil has corrected nearly 20% from its high.
What was even more unexpected was that the US midterm election results (the Democratic Party's big win itself was already somewhat beyond expectations) further changed the market's expectations about the direction of the Iran war, leading to a nearly 10% single-day drop in oil prices.
The difficulty of fundamental analysis lies here:
It is very hard to quantify in advance the weight of different factors on price, and even harder to know which factor will suddenly become dominant.
Even if all the logic in the analysis framework is correct, it does not mean you can accurately judge the price trend.
Technical analysis chooses another path.
It does not try to explain why the world changes, but directly observes what changes have already occurred in the market.
After crude oil broke below the upward trend line since July, it quickly experienced a significant sharp decline.
We may not be able to predict in advance how much the midterm election will affect oil prices, but the market's volume-price relationship and trend structure can help us identify changes happening in supply and demand.
The market will not wait for you to figure out all the reasons before it starts to fall. $BTC Developments within 24 hours: $BCH rose 4.99%, current price 288.92
This update has not yet provided suitable short-term indicators to confirm a breakout or loss of support.
The daily MACD indicator has closed below the signal line. The bearish gap has not further widened, but no clear reversal signal has appeared yet.
Both the 4-hour and daily charts show an upward trend. However, the EMA indicator on the daily chart has not yet reflected this trend.Because BTC trades 24 hours, there are many opportunities. If there is no pattern or entry point that fits your own understanding, the most rational approach is to wait patiently.
Currently, from the 4-hour view, BTC is still within a descending channel. You can consider shorting near the upper edge of the descending channel, around 82500, to see if it can reach that level. $BTC $SNDK This long-short account ratio has reached 9:1, I wish I could sell the whole company to you in one go BNB Chain surpasses $ETH, leading the tokenized ETF market!
The tokenized ETF market is rapidly growing, increasing from $164 million at the end of 2025 to $687 million on November 2, 2026.
Notably, the $BNB Chain is rising and is expected to become the top-ranked blockchain:
Tokenized ETF/ETP values:
- BNB Chain: $309 million (was $2 million at the beginning of the year).
- Ethereum: $229.2 million.
- Total market value: $687 million.$SNDK Sigh, Sandisk Queen (female big, pure live streamer) @山寨女王露西 I wish you good luck to get through this crisis. You rely on Sandisk, hope there is no second half of the sentence. Wish you good luck! But you opened a 50x long position, entered long at 1450, the position is not small. Given your capital strength and your faith in Sandisk, it can't be said to be definitely wrong, because there were 2200 and 1900 before, so opening long at 1450 may not be wrong. It's just that you shouldn't have added positions at 1366, nor at 1131. Sigh, because didn't you see the previous low on 7/30 was 972? Adding positions must at least be near 972, and the 1000 big level can only be a small test with 1/10 of the funds (after leverage, the number cannot exceed 10%)... Always guard against risk. 972 is not cheap, I can't say 960.1 is a hard bottom, there is a possibility to continue down to 860, 760, 660. Before storage boomed last year, the price might have been only 200, 300, 400, so when it just dropped to 972, I only bought 2.43u, after 4x leverage, bought 9.72 (actually 9.72/4=2.43). I will continue to add positions at 900, 813, 734, 668 to lower the average cost. My total principal is 2200+, currently only invested less than 4u, with 4x leverage it's 16u, 16/2200=0.007273, only 0.73%, steady Evening pullback of three coins: I don't see it as a reversal, but as a signal that the rebound within the downtrend has ended
From a bearish perspective, the weakness of BTC and ETH in the evening looks more like profit-taking after a rebound rather than a trend reversal. On November 5, BTC spot was about 79,444 USDT, down 1.32% intraday; ETH about 2,382 USDT, down 1.77% intraday; ZEC about 1,299 USDT, slightly up 0.19% intraday, not falling in sync with the first two.
Technically, BTC's daily MACD is still in a death cross state, the super trend is downward, and volume is only 0.63 times the 7-day average, so the rebound lacks volume confirmation; ETH just showed a golden cross but the super trend remains downward, with large capital outflows, indicating short-term recovery alongside medium-term pressure. ZEC's moving average structure is relatively strong, MACD golden cross, but it is also in a downward super trend zone with currently weak volume.
Yesterday's public information shows the market is still disturbed by policy and election-related news, causing significant risk appetite fluctuations. I will watch whether BTC can hold the recent low area, whether ETH's capital flow continues to weaken, and whether ZEC's rebound is accompanied by volume expansion. The targets you proposed—76,500, 2,260, 1,170—can be used as observation points under a bearish scenario, not as definite paths; if the market strengthens again with volume expansion, the bearish narrative needs to be reassessed promptly. #非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ On Friday, the nonfarm payrolls are very likely to further solidify the expectation of a rate hike in December; what could truly change market pricing is not "whether there will be a rate hike," but "whether there will be more hikes and if rates will stay high for longer."
The market has already highly priced in a December rate hike
As of November 5, CME FedWatch shows about an 81.5% probability of the Fed raising rates by 25 basis points in December, with the probability of no change dropping to 18.5%. This means the market has taken the December rate hike as the baseline scenario rather than a low-probability event. $XAU $BTC #Sony Q2 Operating Profit Grows 45%, Raises Full-Year Performance Guidance
#Sony's Earnings Exceed Expectations! Operating Profit Soars 45%, Has the Real Money-Making Machine Changed?
Sony has delivered a rather impressive report card.
In the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, revenue increased 10% year-over-year to ¥3.43 trillion; operating profit rose 45% year-over-year to ¥622.3 billion, and net profit grew 44%.
More importantly, Sony directly raised its full-year operating profit forecast to ¥1.87 trillion.
But I believe the most noteworthy aspect of this earnings report is not the 45% figure, but the source of the profit growth.
Operating profit from the gaming business increased 83%, and operating profit from the film business surged 568%. The box office contribution from "Spider-Man: A New Day," combined with growth in PlayStation Network services and game software revenue, is turning Sony's content ecosystem into a profit engine.
This indicates a trend: in the future, Sony may no longer just sell TVs, cameras, and game consoles, but will continuously harvest content value through games, movies, music, and IP.
However, don't overlook the concerns: PS5 shipments this quarter dropped to 2.6 million units, down from 4 million units in the same period last year. With hardware growth slowing, whether content can continue to take over is the key for the next phase.
My view is: Sony's true value lies not just in hardware, but in the content assets it holds that can be monetized repeatedly. #Stripe stablecoin payments cover more than 160 markets
The boss has something to say
I view this news separately from tonight's market: Stripe's Global Payouts now supports US companies sending USDC and OUSD stablecoins directly to crypto wallets in over 160 markets, still in public preview; Visa is promoting USDC cross-border prepaid, Mastercard is expanding fiat and stablecoin settlements. Interestingly, the initiators behind OUSD are Coinbase, Mastercard, Shopify, Stripe, and Visa themselves—this is not just one company trying out a new toy, but the entire traditional payment circle working together to make stablecoins the default track for corporate payments.
My interpretation: this is a signal of infrastructure development, not a switch for market trends. Minute-level settlement, transparent fees, coverage of 160 markets solve the real pain points of cross-border B2B payments; but the bigger the stablecoin, the more it shows that on-chain settlement is becoming as essential as utilities like water, electricity, and gas, rather than indicating BTC will rise tomorrow. If you want to watch something, watch on-chain stablecoin settlement volume and Stripe's actual GMV after public preview, not the news headlines.
$ETH
BTC fell back below $80,000 tonight, I continue to stay out and watch. My approach: the $80,000 round number has shifted from support to resistance, wait for stabilization between 79,000–79,500 to buy more, continue waiting if it falls below 78,960. The stablecoin story is a slow money story, and I manage my position accordingly; $BTC $ZEC The simultaneous evening decline indicates a continued downtrend! $BTC is on hold for now, $ETH short positions are still held, and $ZEC has opened 5 new short positions to keep going! Let's go, short army brothers!
The evening market turned weak, BTC is currently at 79369.95, up 1.24% in 24 hours; ETH at 2379.76, up 2.60%; ZEC at 1301.76, up 1.76%. I still maintain a bearish perspective, but it looks more like an intraday pullback after a previous violent rebound, so we can't take a single bearish candle as proof of a "continued downtrend."
BTC daily MACD is still a death cross, the super trend is at 82920.26 and pointing downward, and near 79300 it has returned between the 7-day moving average at 78208.95 and the 25-day moving average at 80589.43; ETH has pulled back but its MACD just formed a golden cross, and the price remains above the 7-day moving average at 2301.31. ZEC is even stronger: MACD golden cross, bullish moving average alignment, and net capital inflow intraday, which differs from the capital outflows of BTC and ETH.
Therefore, I regard 76500, 2260, and 1170 as observation zones to see if weakness expands, rather than fixed "small targets." If BTC and ETH rebound but volume continues to shrink and short-term moving averages are lost again, the bearish structure will be more convincing; if ZEC continues to outperform the market, the logic of all three coins "falling together" will be weakened. Public news still revolves around reserve proof expansion, Hong Kong's crypto asset reporting framework, and risk appetite fluctuations caused by US political events.Coincheck announced that due to a failure in an external on-chain analysis service, processing of cryptocurrency deposit and withdrawal requests has been delayed since 0:04 on November 5 Japan time. The platform has suspended accepting new withdrawal requests; some pending requests have been canceled, while others will be retained for re-review after the system is restored.
If I were to write a strategy, I would set a rule: if the platform restricts withdrawals due to an external service failure, trigger an "abnormal fund availability" observation rather than immediately labeling it as insolvent. As I am new to quantitative analysis, I must remind myself that triggering a condition is not equivalent to a conclusion. 🤖
I believe this is a negative signal for the platform's service reliability and has a more direct impact on users needing to transfer assets out. The fact that the blockchain itself can operate does not mean the platform's deposit and withdrawal channels can function; external analysis services can also become bottlenecks, which is an item I would add to the risk checklist.
The advantage of this rule is that it shifts attention from price back to whether funds are available. The flaw is obvious: suspending withdrawals alone cannot explain the severity of the failure, and canceling some requests may increase the cost for users to confirm their status; we cannot just focus on the word "recovery."
My subsequent observation conditions will be: whether new requests are reopened, how backlog requests are handled, and whether the cause of the failure is explained. If you were to write this condition yourself, would you treat "reopening withdrawals" as clearing the alert, or wait until the backlog requests are also processed?$TAO has dropped 70% from its peak, but Bittensor subnet revenue has doubled in two months:
1. According to SubConnect statistics, the subnet's external revenue annualized increased from about $35 million in early September to about $50 million in October, and now about $70 million;
2. The growth mainly comes from subnets selling computing power and inference, with Lium, Targon, and Engy ranking top three, accounting for about 80% in computing power and infrastructure categories;
3. Compared to the annual $300 million+ TAO issuance, current revenue only covers less than a quarter, and SubConnect expects the annualized revenue to possibly exceed $100 million by the end of the year.#SpaceX业绩大增，与特斯拉合并能否推进？
The market turmoil is still entangling SpaceX.
After the midterm election results came out, the stock price came under pressure, and the uncertainties around regulation and merger have been amplified.
ARK made a counter-trend move to increase its position, which gave some investors a bit of confidence.
But short-term sentiment is hard to reverse all at once; the follow-up still depends on policy direction and the pace of financing progress.The jobs report is about to give the market another reason to rethink its rate expectations.
With December hike odds already above 70%, a strong payroll number could reinforce the hawkish outlook, push Treasury yields higher and put fresh pressure on Bitcoin, gold and growth stocks.
But the headline number won't tell the whole story. Wage growth and unemployment will be just as important in determining how the Fed interprets the labour market.
#USJobsReportInFocus The midterm outcome has delivered a clean natural experiment in political-risk pricing. Democrats won control of both chambers, and the market did not treat it as a broad crypto verdict. $BTC held near eighty thousand dollars, a show of resilience that suggests the bearish scenario was already in the price. Funds had concluded that no immediate anti-industry bill would land, and with US Treasury yields falling, the wider market rebounded. The damage was concentrated where the narrative had been $12 million market cap, ranked beyond 700 — Is CORE turning into a "zombie coin"?
Once hailed as the BTCFi leader, CORE's circulating market cap has now dropped to about $12 million, with its coin ranking falling to around 700. More and more investors are starting to discuss: is it heading towards zombification? ❌ Major signs of zombification
First, value capture ability is almost ineffective. On-chain gas revenue is extremely low, unable to provide positive support for the token; tokens have been continuously released for 81 years, causing long-term inflationary pressure. The original burn mechanism was adjusted, and the project's promised buybacks are not contractually guaranteed. Second, the sector is squeezed by competitors. Babylon and Merlin are capturing BTCFi sector funds and users, while CORE's decentralization controversy with only 21 validator nodes persists, and institutional funds continue to withdraw. Third, liquidity continues to shrink, some exchanges have delisted trading pairs, order book depth has thinned, and large trades suffer huge slippage. Although the public chain can still produce blocks normally, ecosystem activity is sluggish, with weak growth in on-chain users and TVL.
Zombie coins do not mean immediate zero value. As long as there is some trading and DEX channels for circulation, the token will maintain weak transactions; but the biggest risk is the long-term lack of buyers, gradually falling into a state of having value but no market, making exit costs increasingly high. 💡Insight Many confuse "whether the public chain can operate" with "whether the token has investment value." After the narrative fades, no cash flow support, long-term inflation, and liquidity exhaustion are typical characteristics of a project turning into a zombie.A slightly different perspective: At the end of 2023, Trump's successful election did indeed bring a peak to the cryptocurrency market, but this peak ended in 2024. Trump did not bring any real benefits to the crypto industry afterward; instead, his recklessness caused a major market crash.
For example, the 2024 trade war, also known as the tariff war, caused both the stock market and cryptocurrencies to plummet wildly. It was around that time that TACO gradually emerged. 2025 was originally looking good, but then this guy got arrogant again and provoked Iran.
If we talk purely about the cryptocurrency field, many of Trump's previous promises did not materialize. The only real achievement was having SEC, CFTC, and a group of White House officials who were relatively friendly to cryptocurrencies. That is true, but these people did not make any actual contributions. It was precisely because Trump treated cryptocurrencies as a cash cow that not only the Democrats but also many within the Republican Party became dissatisfied.
He also said he would make the US have the lowest electricity prices to support mining, but now many Bitcoin mining farms in the US have switched to AI, and the US's computing power is continuously declining.
Regarding strategic reserves, it is true that the US has not sold $BTC in the past two years, but this is not the reason many companies use Bitcoin for strategic holdings. The main reason is that $MSTR is too simple, and the entire DAT became popular. As a result, only a few have survived until now, and those that have are doing reasonably well but are not many. $XAUT US market analysis: Gold, this morning's early session relied on 4146 for consecutive gains, moving upward. The European session showed high-level fluctuations. After the US market opened, the unemployment claims report was bearish. The planned short at 4126 successfully dropped to 4114 for profit-taking. Then it dipped to 4111 before rebounding to close positive. The market showed good resilience against declines. The original plan was to go long at 4100, but it seems there won't be an opportunity. Being a bit more aggressive in the US session, I went long directly at 4122, with a stop loss at 4107 and a target of 4146-50!For short-term ETH trading, pay attention to the rhythm of "breakout—pullback—then increased volume" rather than chasing on the first bullish candle.📉 $ZEC : Leaning Short Into NU7 (small size)
NU7 goes live in hours. ZEC already pumped ~9%, so "sell the news" is possible. 1H rejected at 1,351, 15m resistance at 1,308–1,313. ETF assets fell $1B ➜ $710M.
🔴 Entry: 1,306–1,315
🛑 SL: 1,340 (1H close)
🎯 TP: 1,287 / 1,276 / 1,250
🟢 1H close above 1,340 = I'm wrong, I exit.
⚠️ 4H trend is still bullish. Low leverage, risk 1%.
Breakout or pullback? 👇
Not financial advice. #ZEC #USJobsReportInFocus $ZEC $APT — Aptos
Blockchain scalability is not simply about processing more transactions; reliability and developer experience matter equally. Aptos uses the Move programming language and focuses on high-performance execution. Its ecosystem development deserves monitoring through developer participation, application diversity, network activity, and sustainable adoption.MRNA 盘子的线是GAAP每股-1.28。Alpha Vantage汇总的15家平均是-1.2829，跟线几乎一样，FactSet是-1.10，Zacks是-1.37，线正好夹在中间。 一季度那份财报里，有一笔跟Arbutus、Genevant的诉讼和解，摊到每股2.22，那季GAAP亏到了3.40。7月公司付了9.5亿现金，CFO Jamey Mock在二季度电话会上说，这笔会体现在三季度的现金余额里。费用一季度已经记过，三季度利润表里只剩每季几百万的摊销。 费用才是这季的变数。不算诉讼那笔，全年GAAP费用指引是47亿，上半年花了18.6亿左右，下半年还剩28.4亿，比上半年多五成多。三季度要是花12.8亿左右，每股在-0.91上下。花到14.2亿，就是-1.26左右，已经贴着线。营收再只有8.3亿，就掉到线下面。 几处小账都是帮忙的。公司说今年的税negligible，9月交割的30亿可转债是零利率，几乎不加利息成本，员工行权让股数多了一点，亏损摊得更薄。 尾部风险在和解本身。和解里还挂着一笔或有款，最多再付13亿，要看一项上诉怎么判，还没判。这季要是计提，这条线就守不住。 两$BTC is approaching a key supply zone, with $81,500–$82,000 becoming the focal point of the bulls and bears battle!
Bitcoin is currently testing an important supply area above, where strong selling pressure exists, potentially becoming a significant resistance for short-term gains.
For the bulls, this is a critical test.
If BTC can break through $82,000 with volume and successfully hold above after the breakout, the market is likely to enter a new upward phase.
But if it encounters selling pressure again, caution is needed for a possible price pullback.
Key points to watch next:
* $81,500: initial resistance.
* $82,000: key breakout level.
* Volume breakout and hold: bulls gain further control.
* Breakout failure: beware of false breakouts and corrections.
Don't chase the breakout moment; waiting for a close confirmation is crucial.
Do you think BTC can successfully break through 82K this time?
#BTC #Bitcoin #CryptoMarket #TechnicalAnalysis #OKXOrbitTopics ETH short-term volatility has increased, but ETF funding is not yet fully stable, so the sustainability of the rebound should be viewed cautiously.80,000 gained and lost, sideways for a day, the direction chosen is down
BTC 79,508, stayed above 80,000 sideways during the day, broke down at night; ETH 2,385, SOL 95.2, all three coins moving down together.
The push is before the market opens. Semiconductor stocks are all down: Qualcomm down nearly 10%, ASE down over 8%, SK Hynix and ARM down over 6%, Nasdaq futures down 0.77%. Two underlying reasons: after Democrats took Congress, AI regulation may tighten; Goldman Sachs says 45% of data center expansions face policy risks; monetary policy is tight, no hope for rate cuts.
Morningstar puts it bluntly: post-election optimism is fading.
But don’t rush to one-sided conclusions. Dow futures are still up 0.5%, funds are rotating from tech stocks to blue chips, so it’s not a full panic; BTC support at 78,713 with 15.2 million not broken, tomorrow’s nonfarm payrolls may be weak and could pull it back.
$BTC C 79,508, support at 78,713 with 15.2 million, further down at 76,526 with 35.3 million.
$ETH 2,385, support at 2,367 with 11.7 million, further down at 2,302.
$SOL 95.2, next support at 93.77.
Tomorrow’s big nonfarm payrolls, the test is just beginning.
#非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ BTC/ETH Evening Observation on November 5
At 22:00 Beijing Time, $BTC at 79645, $ETH at 2388. Both coins' hourly charts show increased volume and have fallen below the 7 and 20 moving averages; the four-hour chart is still closing on a pullback.
ETH's full daily candle remains above the 20-day moving average, while BTC is still suppressed by this line.
In the next 24–48 hours, the trend is likely to continue digesting gains:
BTC first targets 79500; if the four-hour candle closes below, then look at 78700;
ETH first targets 2380; if it closes below, then look at 2358.
If each consecutively closes two hourly candles back above BTC 80400 and ETH 2420, it indicates selling pressure has eased, then look towards 80960 and 2451.
The above represents only personal observation and prediction, for reference only, and does not constitute investment advice. #非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ $TON — Toncoin
Blockchain adoption increasingly depends on applications that people can access without complicated technical processes. TON benefits from its connection to Telegram's application ecosystem. The key indicators to follow are developer activity, application engagement, network reliability, and meaningful onchain transactions rather than attention alone.IREN's GAAP EPS is -0.46, and printing -0.45 or better counts as a beat. This number looks like Wall Street's expectation, but it's actually the adjusted figure. Zacks' adjusted estimate 30 days ago was exactly -0.46, now it's -0.49. Others are worse: FactSet's GAAP estimate is -0.72, Seeking Alpha is -0.76 without specifying the basis, Koyfin's adjusted is -0.67, and the most optimistic one in Alpha Vantage is only -0.51; none reach -0.46. There's a big gap between adjusted and GAAP. According to Alpha Vantage's recorded adjusted actuals, IREN's GAAP EPS in the past three quarters was even lower by 0.49, 0.58, and nearly 1.4 in June. That quarter alone recorded a 450 million impairment, and the fair value of mining machines dropped by another 100 million. Roughly calculated with 395 million shares, to print -0.45, the net loss this quarter must be less than 180 million. FactSet's -0.72 corresponds to a loss of about 285 million, so it needs to beat by over 100 million. Factors pushing upward include Bitcoin rising from 58,559 at the end of June to 83,554 at the end of September, an increase of over 40%, possibly replenishing some fair value of mining machines for sale. Cash on hand was 7.6 billion at the end of June, with interest income roughly tens of millions per quarter. The number of shares increased due to issuance and acquisitions, so the same loss spread over more shares results in a smaller per-share loss. Pulling downward are expenses. The company said this quarter's cash outflow... Evening session on November 5 | The 80,000 level lost, retreating before the non-farm payrolls
BTC 79,447 (-1.02%): After surging to 81,199, it fell back losing the 80,000 mark; MA20 (80,293) has turned into resistance, with 79,000 as short-term strong support. 21shares states BTC volatility is now lower than Tesla's, indicating cautious capital competition.
ETH 2,380 (-1.85%): Broke below the 2,400 level, with clear resistance at 2,416 above. The key defense line below is 2,313. Polygon plans to integrate a security council to unify multisig, and ecosystem development is still ongoing.
ZEC 1,304 (-0.13%): NU7 upgrade activated at block 3,543,405, reducing block time to 25 seconds. However, after the positive news, the market stagnated; resistance above at 1,352, short-term defense below at 1,308, beware of a "sell the fact" pullback.
On the macro side, after the midterm elections, the market enters a "buy the expectation, sell the fact" phase, focusing on Friday's non-farm payrolls; if the data is hot, it will strengthen rate hike expectations. BTC briefly reclaimed and lost 80,000, ZEC's upgrade day saw stagnation, will you dare to hold positions overnight before the non-farm?
Defense bottom lines: 79,000 (BTC), 2,313 (ETH), 1,308 (ZEC).
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？