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For short-term ETH trading, pay attention to the rhythm of "breakout—pullback—then increased volume" rather than chasing on the first bullish candle.📉 $ZEC : Leaning Short Into NU7 (small size)
NU7 goes live in hours. ZEC already pumped ~9%, so "sell the news" is possible. 1H rejected at 1,351, 15m resistance at 1,308–1,313. ETF assets fell $1B ➜ $710M.
🔴 Entry: 1,306–1,315
🛑 SL: 1,340 (1H close)
🎯 TP: 1,287 / 1,276 / 1,250
🟢 1H close above 1,340 = I'm wrong, I exit.
⚠️ 4H trend is still bullish. Low leverage, risk 1%.
Breakout or pullback? 👇
Not financial advice. #ZEC #USJobsReportInFocus $ZEC $APT — Aptos
Blockchain scalability is not simply about processing more transactions; reliability and developer experience matter equally. Aptos uses the Move programming language and focuses on high-performance execution. Its ecosystem development deserves monitoring through developer participation, application diversity, network activity, and sustainable adoption.MRNA 盘子的线是GAAP每股-1.28。Alpha Vantage汇总的15家平均是-1.2829，跟线几乎一样，FactSet是-1.10，Zacks是-1.37，线正好夹在中间。 一季度那份财报里，有一笔跟Arbutus、Genevant的诉讼和解，摊到每股2.22，那季GAAP亏到了3.40。7月公司付了9.5亿现金，CFO Jamey Mock在二季度电话会上说，这笔会体现在三季度的现金余额里。费用一季度已经记过，三季度利润表里只剩每季几百万的摊销。 费用才是这季的变数。不算诉讼那笔，全年GAAP费用指引是47亿，上半年花了18.6亿左右，下半年还剩28.4亿，比上半年多五成多。三季度要是花12.8亿左右，每股在-0.91上下。花到14.2亿，就是-1.26左右，已经贴着线。营收再只有8.3亿，就掉到线下面。 几处小账都是帮忙的。公司说今年的税negligible，9月交割的30亿可转债是零利率，几乎不加利息成本，员工行权让股数多了一点，亏损摊得更薄。 尾部风险在和解本身。和解里还挂着一笔或有款，最多再付13亿，要看一项上诉怎么判，还没判。这季要是计提，这条线就守不住。 两$BTC is approaching a key supply zone, with $81,500–$82,000 becoming the focal point of the bulls and bears battle!
Bitcoin is currently testing an important supply area above, where strong selling pressure exists, potentially becoming a significant resistance for short-term gains.
For the bulls, this is a critical test.
If BTC can break through $82,000 with volume and successfully hold above after the breakout, the market is likely to enter a new upward phase.
But if it encounters selling pressure again, caution is needed for a possible price pullback.
Key points to watch next:
* $81,500: initial resistance.
* $82,000: key breakout level.
* Volume breakout and hold: bulls gain further control.
* Breakout failure: beware of false breakouts and corrections.
Don't chase the breakout moment; waiting for a close confirmation is crucial.
Do you think BTC can successfully break through 82K this time?
#BTC #Bitcoin #CryptoMarket #TechnicalAnalysis #OKXOrbitTopics ETH short-term volatility has increased, but ETF funding is not yet fully stable, so the sustainability of the rebound should be viewed cautiously.80,000 gained and lost, sideways for a day, the direction chosen is down
BTC 79,508, stayed above 80,000 sideways during the day, broke down at night; ETH 2,385, SOL 95.2, all three coins moving down together.
The push is before the market opens. Semiconductor stocks are all down: Qualcomm down nearly 10%, ASE down over 8%, SK Hynix and ARM down over 6%, Nasdaq futures down 0.77%. Two underlying reasons: after Democrats took Congress, AI regulation may tighten; Goldman Sachs says 45% of data center expansions face policy risks; monetary policy is tight, no hope for rate cuts.
Morningstar puts it bluntly: post-election optimism is fading.
But don’t rush to one-sided conclusions. Dow futures are still up 0.5%, funds are rotating from tech stocks to blue chips, so it’s not a full panic; BTC support at 78,713 with 15.2 million not broken, tomorrow’s nonfarm payrolls may be weak and could pull it back.
$BTC C 79,508, support at 78,713 with 15.2 million, further down at 76,526 with 35.3 million.
$ETH 2,385, support at 2,367 with 11.7 million, further down at 2,302.
$SOL 95.2, next support at 93.77.
Tomorrow’s big nonfarm payrolls, the test is just beginning.
#非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ BTC/ETH Evening Observation on November 5
At 22:00 Beijing Time, $BTC at 79645, $ETH at 2388. Both coins' hourly charts show increased volume and have fallen below the 7 and 20 moving averages; the four-hour chart is still closing on a pullback.
ETH's full daily candle remains above the 20-day moving average, while BTC is still suppressed by this line.
In the next 24–48 hours, the trend is likely to continue digesting gains:
BTC first targets 79500; if the four-hour candle closes below, then look at 78700;
ETH first targets 2380; if it closes below, then look at 2358.
If each consecutively closes two hourly candles back above BTC 80400 and ETH 2420, it indicates selling pressure has eased, then look towards 80960 and 2451.
The above represents only personal observation and prediction, for reference only, and does not constitute investment advice. #非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ $TON — Toncoin
Blockchain adoption increasingly depends on applications that people can access without complicated technical processes. TON benefits from its connection to Telegram's application ecosystem. The key indicators to follow are developer activity, application engagement, network reliability, and meaningful onchain transactions rather than attention alone.IREN's GAAP EPS is -0.46, and printing -0.45 or better counts as a beat. This number looks like Wall Street's expectation, but it's actually the adjusted figure. Zacks' adjusted estimate 30 days ago was exactly -0.46, now it's -0.49. Others are worse: FactSet's GAAP estimate is -0.72, Seeking Alpha is -0.76 without specifying the basis, Koyfin's adjusted is -0.67, and the most optimistic one in Alpha Vantage is only -0.51; none reach -0.46. There's a big gap between adjusted and GAAP. According to Alpha Vantage's recorded adjusted actuals, IREN's GAAP EPS in the past three quarters was even lower by 0.49, 0.58, and nearly 1.4 in June. That quarter alone recorded a 450 million impairment, and the fair value of mining machines dropped by another 100 million. Roughly calculated with 395 million shares, to print -0.45, the net loss this quarter must be less than 180 million. FactSet's -0.72 corresponds to a loss of about 285 million, so it needs to beat by over 100 million. Factors pushing upward include Bitcoin rising from 58,559 at the end of June to 83,554 at the end of September, an increase of over 40%, possibly replenishing some fair value of mining machines for sale. Cash on hand was 7.6 billion at the end of June, with interest income roughly tens of millions per quarter. The number of shares increased due to issuance and acquisitions, so the same loss spread over more shares results in a smaller per-share loss. Pulling downward are expenses. The company said this quarter's cash outflow... Evening session on November 5 | The 80,000 level lost, retreating before the non-farm payrolls
BTC 79,447 (-1.02%): After surging to 81,199, it fell back losing the 80,000 mark; MA20 (80,293) has turned into resistance, with 79,000 as short-term strong support. 21shares states BTC volatility is now lower than Tesla's, indicating cautious capital competition.
ETH 2,380 (-1.85%): Broke below the 2,400 level, with clear resistance at 2,416 above. The key defense line below is 2,313. Polygon plans to integrate a security council to unify multisig, and ecosystem development is still ongoing.
ZEC 1,304 (-0.13%): NU7 upgrade activated at block 3,543,405, reducing block time to 25 seconds. However, after the positive news, the market stagnated; resistance above at 1,352, short-term defense below at 1,308, beware of a "sell the fact" pullback.
On the macro side, after the midterm elections, the market enters a "buy the expectation, sell the fact" phase, focusing on Friday's non-farm payrolls; if the data is hot, it will strengthen rate hike expectations. BTC briefly reclaimed and lost 80,000, ZEC's upgrade day saw stagnation, will you dare to hold positions overnight before the non-farm?
Defense bottom lines: 79,000 (BTC), 2,313 (ETH), 1,308 (ZEC).
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ Many Meme coins plummet like free fall because during the drop, they can only rely on the project team's verbal promise to buy back, and the scale of funds and whether it is executed cannot be verified. $HBTC deducts a 2% maintenance bounty from the buyer and seller fees, and the remaining 98% is fully invested into Burn Net, placing seven layers of passive buy orders below the market price, roughly corresponding to 5%/10%/15%/20%/30%/40%/50% below the pegged price; the pegged price is taken as the lower of the "last closing price" and the block TWAP, and will only adjust downward, never upward. It only places orders and does not chase prices, so it will not actively create volatility. How much ETH remains in the wall, where the pegged price is, and the coverage rate are all publicly verifiable numbers!BTC fell back to $79,000 tonight, and the daytime strength is being reassessed!
On the evening of November 5, the latest BTC quote was $79,404, up 1.32% in 24 hours, with a high of $81,196 and a low of $78,320.
One detail worth noting:
During the day, BTC was still repeatedly contesting above $80,000, but now it has fallen back to around $79,400.
From the 24-hour high, the retracement is close to $1,800.
This means that although the 24-hour gain is still positive, the advantage of short-term buying has clearly weakened.
What is most worth watching now is whether effective support can form around $79,000.
If the price continues to probe lower and breaks below the low near $78,300, short-term adjustment pressure may increase further.
But if it can quickly recover above $80,000, it indicates that there is still capital willing to buy on the dip.
Personally, I am not in a hurry to judge bull or bear now, but more focused on the nature of this pullback.
Is it a normal profit-taking during an uptrend, or a trend weakening after a failed rally?
The upcoming price performance will provide more clues.
The most worth discussing question today: BTC breaking below $80,000 again, is it a buying opportunity or a risk signal?
$BTC $BTC 从75690的深坑里爬出来，只用了一根V形反弹就把价格重新推上81000上方，最高触及81199——但真正值得琢磨的，不是这波反弹本身，而是市场在“民主党横扫两院”这个结果落地后，先砸盘再拉盘的顺序。选举结果公布那一刻，$BTC一度跌破76000，随后却被迅速买回，这种“先卖消息、再买回来”的走法说明一件事：交易者真正定价的不是选举胜负，而是加密监管立法会不会因此被拖入更长的扯皮周期。风险回来了，政策的不确定性却没有走。 这一轮里，77300和76188两笔提前挂好的买单先后成交，第二笔甚至是在价格下探到75690附近后才被吃掉的。这个细节比任何指标都诚实：最悲观的时候，没人知道下方还有多深，而分批建仓的计划恰好把“猜底”换成了“接货”。现在两笔仓位都浮盈，真正的考验从“敢不敢买”切换成了“守不守得住”。1小时布林带中轨在78993、上轨在81420，价格已经重回强势区，但也正贴着上轨的压力边缘走——这种位置最容易让人产生“大阳线来了就追”的冲动，而这恰恰是浮盈变浮亏的经典路径。 我的判断是：这波行情的核心矛盾不在多头能不能冲，而在81000上方有没有足够的换手来消化获利盘。For BTC, the $81,300–$82,000 region is now an important test.
Reclaiming that zone with sustained spot demand would strengthen the recovery argument. Getting rejected there could leave this as another relief rally within a broader corrective structure.
The election uncertainty has faded, but the market still needs fresh demand to turn this rebound into something more sustainable.
Price recovery is one thing. Trend confirmation is another.
#DemocratsWinHouseSenate Put option demand remains high; the market is trading the rebound on one hand while maintaining defense on the other.My first reaction when seeing this was: 60% of adults' money can be frozen just like that.
What we usually fear is the coin dropping; if it drops, at least it's still in the account and you can wait. A bank closing is a different matter — the numbers remain, but the door is gone.
So when something like this happens, $USDT always gets snatched up first. It's not that everyone suddenly favors stablecoins, but at least they can be transferred out. The same goes for $BTC; whether it rises or not, the fact that it isn't controlled by anyone is valuable in itself.
The word "custody" is convenient on normal days, but on the day something goes wrong, it becomes a critical vulnerability.All liquidations were longs, but the price didn't crash?
$BTC: Grinding all day, easing up in the evening
$79,778, 24h +1.76%, long-short ratio 1.63 (1.55 4h ago), open interest $2.7B. In the last 4h, long liquidations of 3.817M U, short liquidations 42K U. Broke below $80,000 at 20:00, bottomed at $79,538, longs liquidated but price didn't collapse; if $80,000 isn't reclaimed, momentum won't pick up.
$ETH: The leader, softened in the evening
$2,389, 24h +2.92%, long-short ratio 1.58 (1.56 4h ago), open interest $1.55B. In the last 4h, long liquidations 2.204M U, short liquidations 20K U. Evening retraced between $2,385–$2,421, failed to reach $2,450.79; if $2,380 doesn't hold, expect a drop to $2,350.
$SOL: Grinding all day, followed downward in the evening
$95.43, 24h +2.56%, long-short ratio 3.14 (3.05 4h ago), open interest $330M. In the last 4h, long liquidations 453K U, short liquidations nearly zero. Evening low $94.92, $95 still holding; losing it would look bad.
Summary: 6.518M liquidations in last 4h, longs 6.474M, shorts 44K.
Liquidations heavily skewed to longs, price steady; let's see if anyone steps in tonight.
For market record only, not investment advice
$BTC $ETH $SOL #非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ The SNDK/USDT game essentially pits the “AI storage long-term logic” against the “NAND cycle peak concerns.” The bulls’ cards are clear: data center SSD volume growth, long-term contract lock-up, buybacks plus 1-for-8 stock split, forward PE compressed to single digits, combined with expectations of NAND supply-demand tightness continuing through 2027–2028, with funds stepping in on sharp dips.
The bears are well-armed: the stock price’s several-fold increase over the past year has already priced in the boom, consumer demand is weak, Kioxia/Changjiang Storage are expanding capacity, supply loosens after 2027, and long-term contract floor coverage is limited. Any signal of “price increase slowing” will trigger valuation cuts. On the contract side, there is also the added pressure of high funding fees on USDT perpetuals and crowded longs—liquidations during rebounds are more severe than in spot.
The current price range ($1000–1100) is not black or white: both sides are waiting for the next catalyst—NAND spot prices, next quarter guidance, and liquidity after the stock split. In the short term, it’s a tug-of-war between “oversold recovery vs. downtrend continuation”; in the mid-term, the fate hinges on whether the unit price can hold in 2027. The conclusion of the game: the long-term logic remains intact, but marginal pricing power lies with the bears. Until the rebound breaks key resistance, don’t treat contracts as if they were equity to hold to death. The market has moved quite a bit since this was posted, and BTC's reaction is becoming clearer.
After briefly dropping to around $75,600 following the election results, Bitcoin has recovered above $80,000, with ETH pushing above $2,400 and SOL reclaiming the $95 area.
A few things are driving this recovery:
#DemocratsWinHouseSenate Sixty percent of a country's adult population's deposits turned overnight into a string of inaccessible numbers.
Paraguay's Ueno Bank closed due to a solvency crisis, freezing user deposits and sparking public protests. It's not a small institution—about 60% of Paraguayan adults have had accounts there. So the problem isn't just one bank failing, but that the payment channels for most people were cut off simultaneously.
Let's look at the mechanism. The direct consequence of frozen deposits isn't a book loss, but zero liquidity: salaries can't be received, bills can't be paid, merchants don't get money. The system is stuck here, and people need to survive, so they must find a clearing path that doesn't rely on this bank. Historically, every such event pushes some people toward two things—USD stablecoins and self-custody wallets.
Now the transmission. $USDT was grabbed first because it serves a payment function, not an investment function. $BTC lagged behind; it serves an exit function. Their rhythms differ, so the first day's trends often don't follow the same curve. $ETH comes later, benefiting from ecosystem spillover rather than acting as a safe haven itself.
My judgment: this kind of market movement is a pulse, not a trend. The real variable isn't price, but where Paraguayans will open accounts and exchange currency next. If within a week there is a public quote showing an over-the-counter premium for stablecoins, that would be a structural signal.
One question remains: when a bank's solvency can drop to zero overnight, is the portion of your money that you think you can "withdraw anytime" really available anytime? $HBTC Many Meme coins crash like free fall because during the decline, they can only rely on the project team's verbal promise to buy back, and the scale of funds and whether execution occurs cannot be verified. $HBTC deducts 2% from the buyer and seller fees as maintenance bounty, and the remaining 98% is fully invested into Burn Net, placing seven layers of passive buy orders below the market price, roughly corresponding to 5%/10%/15%/20%/30%/40%/50% below the pegged price; the pegged price is taken as the lower of the "last closing price" and the block TWAP, only adjusting downward, never upward. It only places orders and does not chase prices, so it does not actively create volatility. How much ETH remains in the wall, where the pegged price is, and the coverage rate are all publicly verifiable numbers.$VVV — Venice
Privacy is becoming an important consideration in decentralized AI. Venice focuses on private AI access, while VVV provides a staking mechanism connected to API inference capacity. Its longer-term relevance depends on actual developer usage, demand for private inference, and sustainable ecosystem participation. $BTC Nonfarm payrolls are imminent. Can the employment data strengthen the expectation of a December rate hike?
The market currently treats this nonfarm report as a key litmus test for a December rate hike, but in my view, a single employment report is unlikely to directly determine a rate hike; it more so shifts the short-term balance of expectations. If both new jobs and wage growth exceed expectations while the unemployment rate remains low, it will directly confirm the strong resilience of the U.S. economy, indicating that wage inflation pressure has not eased. The CME rate hike probability will quickly rise, U.S. Treasury yields will climb, risk assets will come under pressure, and BTC and growth stocks will likely face a round of profit-taking. However, if employment falls significantly short of expectations and wage growth cools, the market will immediately lower its rate hike bets and may even reprice for a longer period of unchanged rates, giving risk assets some breathing room.
There is an easily overlooked point here: the Federal Reserve currently prioritizes inflation, with employment serving only as supporting evidence. Even if the nonfarm report is strong, as long as the core PCE does not rebound simultaneously afterward, officials still have reason to choose to wait and see; conversely, if employment weakens slightly but inflation remains stubborn, hawkish statements will not disappear. Additionally, attention should be paid to revisions of previous values; often, the surface data looks mediocre, but the upward revisions to labor market heat are what truly influence the Fed's judgment. #非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ $BTC is bouncing, but is the recovery real?
$BTC is back above $80K, while $ETH jumped 7% in a day. Everyone is calling the bottom, but the volume tells a different story.
Prices are rising, yet trading volume remains weak. This suggests the move is driven more by short liquidations than fresh buying pressure.
Simply put, this looks more like a short squeeze than a confirmed trend reversal. Without strong volume, the rally could lose momentum just as quickly as it started.
#DailyOrbit AAOI reported a GAAP loss of $22.8 million in Q2, but a non-GAAP profit of $5.5 million. The adjustments added back include $4.86 million for stock-based compensation, $4.7 million combined for two discontinued product-related items, $4.74 million for non-recurring expenses, and the largest item is the "tax impact of the above items," which added back $14.26 million, translating to $0.18 per share. The press release only described the calculation for this item, using the estimated full-year effective tax rate. On the August conference call, the CFO said that the quarter was better than guidance, mainly due to overseas tax incentives and a small amount of government subsidies, with more expected in subsequent quarters. Roughly calculated, excluding this tax item, the non-GAAP pre-tax figure was actually a loss of about $7.5 million. Therefore, for this adjusted profit, the first thing to look at is the tax. The market focus is on non-GAAP, with a line at 0.08, aiming to print 0.09. The company’s August guidance for Q3 was non-GAAP EPS of 0.11 to 0.26, based on 92.8 million shares, implying net income of $10.1 million to $24 million. The share count used is higher than the guidance. On October 5, the company announced that it sold a total of 5,694,845 shares in the market during this round; based on timing, most were sold within the quarter, so the diluted share count for Q3 is roughly estimated between 94 million and 96 million. Using 95 million shares, the non-GAAP net income needs to be about $8.1 million to print 0.09, which is 20% below the lower end of guidance. To fail to print 0.09, several factors must be off together, such as revenue falling to the lower end of $255 million and gross margin dropping to 29%.[Pharaoh's Market Watch]
Today Pharaoh sipped coffee while watching a spectacle: AI giant Anthropic is planning the "largest IPO in history," but Wall Street institutions slapped the valuation down from nearly 2 trillion to 1.5–1.6 trillion USD. A price cut of 400 to 500 billion, Pharaoh exclaimed like a pro: this isn’t an IPO, it’s like Pinduoduo’s hundred-billion subsidies being slashed onto AI.
Why the cut? Just look at the financials. Q3 revenue was $17 billion, with quarter-over-quarter growth dropping from 144% to 47%, a halving of growth; compute spending soared to 9.9 billion in a single quarter, with every $1 invested in compute generating only $1.72 in revenue, worse than last quarter. Even scarier, there are already $895.4 billion in compute purchase commitments signed, with $69.8 billion due in the next 12 months alone.
The causal chain is clear: AI valuations get pressured ➡️ market cracks the faith in "infinite money burn for growth" ➡️ tech stock risk appetite cools further ➡️ incremental funds hesitate to rush into the most crowded AI track. But here’s a subtle reversal — over the past year AI has been a black hole, sucking all liquidity into compute infrastructure. If AI valuations start to recede, marginally it might squeeze some funds out of the "AI faith," forcing them to seek the next narrative. Not necessarily bad for BTC, but it will take time, not something to realize tonight. $BTC $SOL #Anthropic潜在IPO投资者建议估值降至1.5万亿美元 Is this really a market recovery, or just a short squeeze?
$BTC has climbed back above $80,000, and $ETH has surged 7% in a single day. Many in the market are already claiming the bottom has formed, but the trading volume tells a different story.
Prices are rising, yet trading volume remains weak. This could mean that this rebound is driven more by shorts being forced to cover than by a large influx of new capital.
A short squeeze can indeed push prices up quickly in a short time, but without strong volume to back it, such a rally may be hard to sustain.
Don’t be fooled by the screen full of green candles.
A true market reversal requires confirmation from price, volume, and capital flow together.
Do you think this is the start of a bull market reversal, or just a brief short squeeze?
#BTC #ETH #ShortSqueeze #CryptoMarket #DailyOrbit Is this really a market recovery, or just a short squeeze?
$BTC is back above $80K, while $ETH has gained 7% in a day. Everyone is calling it a bottom, but the volume tells a different story.
Prices are rising, yet trading volume remains weak. This suggests short sellers are being forced to close positions rather than fresh money entering the market.
A short squeeze can push prices up quickly, but without strong volume, the rally may not last.
Don't get fooled by green candles.
#DailyOrbit [Pharaoh's Market Watch]
Last night, Pharaoh watched helplessly as crude oil bulls were "liquidated with one click." The Democrats swept both chambers in the midterm elections, and Vice President Pence directly blamed the defeat on the Iran war. The market instantly bet that "the war is ending soon"—Brent crude gave back over $20 in three days, breaking below $95, and WTI also dropped to around $87.
The causal chain is clear: midterm election shift ➡️ war funding cut off ➡️ geopolitical premium trampled and given back ➡️ oil price plummets ➡️ inflation expectations cool down ➡️ easing pressure on rate hikes ➡️ risk assets catch a breather and rebound. Bitcoin briefly followed the US stock market back above 81,300 on Wednesday, with the logic being "oil price drop = inflation easing = Pharaoh softens." But note, oil prices erased most of the war premium in two days; the market priced in a "ceasefire" all at once, so if negotiations drag on, rebounds will come quickly.
Back to the 79,600 level: short-term looks like a recovery rebound, but don’t mistake "good news" for a "reversal."
Tomorrow night’s nonfarm payrolls are the main event: tonight’s oil price boost is "emotional level," real liquidity pricing is at 21:30 tomorrow. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
Follow Pharaoh, and your wealth won’t get lost! #美国中选改变美伊预期，布伦特跌破95美元 $BTC Looking at this weekly chart, I, the old pig, really feel a chill in my heart. It has fallen below 79,500; the repeated warnings we made before that “if 82,000 can’t hold, it will have to drop” have now all come true. This trend is no joke; the daily-level correction has completely escalated.
Look at these consecutive bearish candles on the weekly chart. The previous surge to 87,374 completely drained the bulls’ enthusiasm, and now it’s all trapped positions crushed from above. The price is barely holding on the precarious defense line between EMA50 (78,583) and EMA100 (78,950), but anyone with eyes can see that the bulls can’t organize an effective counterattack, and volume has shrunk terribly. This is not a healthy shakeout; it’s a real withdrawal of funds.
At this position, the orange box below (roughly between 64,000 and 74,000) is the harsh reality we have to face next. It’s both the middle band support of the weekly BOLL (around 73,829) and the bottom of the previous consolidation box where chips were densely exchanged. If this week can’t reclaim the 78,500 moving average defense line, testing the orange box is a high-probability event.
The old pig says: this wave of short covering impulses is completely over; now it’s a long, slow decline back to value. Don’t think it’s cheap just because it’s dropped to the seventy-thousands; until the trend is over, every rebound is just a chance to escape. Be patient, wait until it hits the orange box area, and see if it can stabilize with volume.
⚠️Market observation only, not trading adviceBitcoin is now just over 80,000, but miner Riot is massively selling off Bitcoin to shift to AI business. Is industrial capital retreating while retail investors are taking over? Bitcoin's V-shaped reversal in this wave shows a clear increase in call option buying in the options market. Traders are betting on a post-election rebound and have bet correctly.$BTC $SOXL
Let's review this order: you must stick to your own view and not be influenced by external factors, following your inner thoughts. Also, let's study in more detail:
✅ Current winter time:
US stock main board regular trading: Beijing time 22:30 - next day 05:00
Pre-market: 17:00-22:30, after-hours: 05:00-09:00
SOXL is divided into two parts, which is very important:
US native SOXL ETF: only 22:30–05:00 is real trading, liquidity is poor in pre-market and after-hours.
SOXLUSDT perpetual contract on OKX: can be traded 24 hours anytime, no suspension.
👉Correlation rules:
During the day (when US stocks are closed): SOXL contracts mainly follow BTC and Nasdaq futures, with weak correlation and small volatility, often driven by crypto;
Once 22:30 hits and US market officially opens: that's when the strong correlation happens! At this time, US chip stocks and Nasdaq spot move, SOXL's real price emerges, which in turn drives BTC and ETH, this time period has the strongest resonance.
In short:
During the day, BTC leads SOXL contracts; after 22:30 when US market opens, SOXL returns to its own chip stock trend, with strongest correlation and largest volatility.
⚠️Reminder: When US market is closed, SOXL contracts tend to disconnect from US stock spot and slippage increases.xSOXL (Semiconductor Bull 3X ETF token) is trading at $xSOXL 59.22 (-9.94% today) in a heavy downtrend.
* Past Ups & Downs: Price hit a high of $xSOXL 108.72 before falling down to its current 24h low of $59.22.
The asset is down -33.18% over 7 days and -64.02% over 30 days.
* Short-Term View: Selling pressure is high as price breaks lower supports.
A short-term relief bounce could target $xSOXL 70–$75, but momentum remains bearish. Bitcoin's volatility is increasing, but the supply of stablecoins is shrinking, and the Federal Reserve is still in a tightening cycle. The overall environment hasn't truly improved yet.The two sides of Circle's financial report: revenue exceeds expectations, but the quality is yet to be tested
Circle's Q3 revenue was $865 million, a year-on-year increase of 17%, with CRCL rising 2.77% pre-market, showing a seemingly good performance. However, a closer look reveals the report is not entirely positive.
Side A is the core business: USDC on-chain transaction volume surged 49% year-on-year, indicating that the payment and usage scenarios of stablecoins are still genuinely expanding, which is a commendable highlight.
Side B concerns profits: net profit only increased by 5%, clearly lagging behind revenue growth. More critically, reserve income was dragged down by the decline in U.S. Treasury yields, falling 8% year-on-year to $658 million, putting pressure on the interest-earning model.
Why did revenue still exceed expectations? Mainly due to a one-time contribution of $182 million from the pre-sale of Arc blockchain network tokens. In other words, new business "filled the gap" to support growth, but sustainability is questionable.
The market in the short term only trades on "revenue exceeding expectations," but tends to overlook profit quality and one-time increments. After CRCL's surge, caution is needed as institutions reassess the financial report structure, bringing a risk of "good news fully priced in," so short-term blind chasing is not advisable.
$CRCL $xCRCL
#CircleQ3营收超预期，USDC链上交易量增长49% $BTC has fallen below eighty thousand dollars. Moving forward, I am more focused on whether it can recover rather than how much it has dropped before a rebound. Kraken's public quote is about 79,484 USD, with the UTC daily low around 79,458, indicating the lower boundary is still being tested. A halt in the decline cannot be judged solely by a single rebound.
Rego views the 78,950–79,400 range as a potential support zone but requires a strong reaction first before considering a short-term rebound. He also reminds that a recovery needs sustained genuine buying. This is his conditional judgment; the related capital flow claims have not been independently verified, so I do not take them directly as evidence of a rebound.
My market view is: I will first observe whether the support zone stops the low points from moving lower, then wait for the hourly close to recover above 80,000 and for the pullback to hold, before raising my assessment of a recovery. If it breaks below the lower edge of the support zone and the rebound fails to recover, the support assumption fails. I will not rely on averaging down to drag a short-term plan into a long-term one.
The core contradiction now is whether the rebound can turn into a recovery; the price is still on the lower end. I am temporarily not chasing the first surge, nor am I writing the order placement area as a certain opportunity. Would you first watch for the low point to stop moving down, or must you wait for the hourly close to recover the threshold? For discussion only, not investment advice.Sleeping giant whale awakens: ETH rebound triggers a wave of large-scale selling
A violent rebound not only ignited market sentiment but also awakened the long-dormant on-chain giant whales.
According to on-chain data monitoring, the well-known X account polypol's associated wallet address (0x52ee...FAAE3) has been very active in the past 10 hours. This address was the first to redeem a large amount of tokens from the Aave protocol, then quickly executed sell orders on the on-chain market.
Data shows this whale has cumulatively sold about $6,357,000 worth of ETH and stETH, with an average transaction price fixed at 2428. This move indicates that after a year of silence, faced with the recent price surge, some early holders have chosen to take profits and secure gains. The awakening and exit of the giant whale may signal that selling pressure is accumulating above, and market competition will become increasingly intense. #非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ The Binance 6.3 billion hacker incident didn't knock Bitcoin down, and the midterm elections also failed to sustain a sell-off, indicating that the bottom is indeed quite solid. xQQQ dropped from its peak of $759.78 down to around $xQQQ 685.49 after finding support near $xQQQ 671.22. Just like classic tech index pullbacks in 2022 and 2024, deep drops in the Nasdaq ETF often flush out panic sellers right before a strong tech-led recovery.
Best Prediction Ever: Driven by heavy AI expansion, xQQQ breaks past its previous $xQQQ 759.78 high and surges up to $xQQQ950 for an all-time high! 🚀 索尼CFO陶琳在电话会上先讲了一个纪录，上半年营业利润第一次过了1万亿日元。 for the first time in history for either half of the fiscal year 紧接着她又补了一句，这里面有美国关税退款和需求提前的贡献。这一季的数，要带着这两样去看。 7到9月归母净利4,496亿日元，同比多44%。游戏营业利润2,201亿，看着涨了83%，去年同期有一笔498亿的一次性损失，剔掉以后是29%左右。娱乐科技那块利润641亿，涨5%，主要来自美国退回来的关税。没掺水的是电影，营业利润926亿，差不多是去年的7倍，影像与传感1,546亿，单季纪录。 全年营业利润指引从1.72万亿调到1.87万亿。退款和提前的需求不会每季都有，剩下两个季度要靠游戏和电影接着撑。 娱乐节目，不构成任何投资建议。Core Risk Warning
1. 79,500 is the most immediate "touchstone": it is the defensive zone being tested. If the daily close falls effectively below it, then 78,500 → 78,000 will be successively exposed. 80,000 is the passing line; only a recovery above it can be considered a repair.
2. The funding rate turning negative to a nine-month low is clear evidence of a "short squeeze" driver: while shorts are concentrated in liquidation, the rate turns negative, indicating that leveraged longs have not regained pricing power, and surviving shorts are paying to hold positions. Historically, this combination often corresponds to short-term emotional extremes, but extremes do not equal reversals; it only means the odds for chasing shorts are worsening.
3. ETF outflows of 1.16 billion over three days are a hard constraint on the sustainability of the rebound: the "fuel" for short liquidation is one-time, while ETF net outflows are continuous. Until ETFs turn to net inflows, any rebound lacks "spot confirmation."
4. The whale split structure of "spot accumulation, contract shorts": 3.03 million spot holdings is a positive signal, but the contract side turning net short and swapping into ETH indicates large funds are hedging rather than making unilateral bets. The market's default narrative of "whales bottom-fishing" is not consistently confirmed by current on-chain data.
5. Tomorrow night’s nonfarm payrolls present asymmetric risk: December rate hike pricing remains high, and the downside from better-than-expected employment data is greater than the upside from worse-than-expected data. Heavy bets on direction before data release are gambling on the data, not trading the structure. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #美国中选改变美伊预期，布伦特跌破95美元 XRP maintains an upward trend against the market, while BTC and ETH face selling pressure
$XRP is currently trading around $1.306, slightly up 0.08%, becoming one of the few large-cap crypto assets still able to sustain gains.
In contrast, $BTC has dropped 0.89%, and $ETH has fallen by 1.32%.
Although XRP's increase is not significant this time, its relative strength is worth continued attention.
Next, the key is whether buying pressure can further strengthen. If XRP can maintain its upward momentum, it will more clearly indicate that buyers are gradually entering the market.
Do not chase the rise; focus on subsequent trading volume and price performance.
#XRP #BTC #ETH #CryptoMarket #OKXOrbitTopicsThe Democratic Party controls both houses of Congress, which is not a short-term positive for Bitcoin. However, the separation of executive and legislative powers actually reduces the risk of extreme policies.#Nonfarm payrolls are imminent, can employment data strengthen the expectation of a December rate hike?
With nonfarm payrolls approaching, the market is already trading with the December rate hike as the baseline scenario—CME pricing shows a 72%–83% probability of a 25 basis point hike. Although the October FOMC held steady, there was a 10-to-2 vote split, with two hawkish members voting against and favoring a rate hike.
The current expectation is for October nonfarm payrolls to increase by 65,000, higher than September's 29,000, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.2%. Stronger-than-expected data signals to the Federal Reserve that "employment is not slowing down." Against a backdrop of 3.7% year-over-year CPI and 3.6% year-over-year PCE, hawks gain further ammunition to tighten policy, solidifying or even increasing rate hike expectations. If the data weakens significantly, for example, new jobs fall below 30,000 and unemployment rises, then "employment risk" will outweigh "inflation risk."
For BTC and ETH, the logic is straightforward: strong nonfarm payrolls = confirmed rate hike = pressure on risk assets. BTC at 80,000 and ETH at 2,280 will face renewed tests; weak nonfarm payrolls = rate hike uncertainty reopens = repair window opens. However, high-beta assets like SOL only show resilience if BTC and ETH first stabilize.
The current market feels like braking in fog; nonfarm payrolls are the foot deciding whether to "keep braking hard or ease off." Are you betting on stronger-than-expected data confirming a rate hike, or weaker data reopening December uncertainty? $BTC $ETH $ZEC 84 million USD, gambled down to 500 USD.
Forced liquidated 60 times in half a year, yet he’s still gambling.
40x leverage shorting Bitcoin.
40x means: if the price moves against you by 2.5%, your principal is gone.
This person is called James Wynn,
working on contracts at Hyperliquid,
positions fully public, anyone can check.
Famous for: betting direction with dozens of times leverage, admitting losses publicly.
Last night and early this morning, Bitcoin went from 78,000 back to 80,000, and his short positions at 78,244, 79,361, 80,677 were liquidated three times in a row.
20 minutes later, he opened another short position.
Liquidation price 81,376.
If Bitcoin rises another 2%, he’s out.
Who pushed him up? It’s the funds.
Yesterday, Bitcoin funds had a net inflow of 74.57 million,
Sounds like money came back.
Let’s break it down:
Fidelity alone put in 237 million,
all other funds combined withdrew 162 million.
So it’s not money coming back, it’s one fund buying while others are running away.
Although money came in,
he still says: Bitcoin will fall a lot more.
So he continues shorting Bitcoin, what do you think?#美股AI板块走势分化：云服务商走强、数据中心股承压
The boss has something to say
I was watching the market tonight, and the divergence is even more striking than the news: Microsoft's stock price hit a record high, Amazon rose 1.8%, but the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 3.13%, hitting a six-month low; Micron dropped 7%, Seagate fell 8%, CoreWeave nearly 10%, and data center stocks like IREN dropped 5.9%. After the midterm elections, the market is repricing — the Democratic Party leans toward environmental protection and tighter approvals, narrowing the path for new data centers. Cloud giants with existing data centers and power resources have become scarce assets.
My interpretation is: this is not the AI story breaking down, but a reshuffling within AI. Approval freezes suppress new supply, creating a premium on existing data centers and power resources, benefiting giants who have already built them, while operators relying on new projects to tell their story face headwinds. For the crypto world, there are two takeaways: first, high-beta momentum stocks are being hit, so risk appetite will cool down; second, companies like Hut 8 and IREN, which are "mining farms transitioning to computing power," are under pressure, indicating that power and approvals are becoming hard constraints. This is a long-term supply-side positive for miners but a short-term sentiment negative.
BTC's current price has fallen back below $80,000, confirming my daytime judgment to stay out and wait for a pullback. My approach: after losing the $80,000 key level, the next defense line is 78,960. I will only re-enter long positions if the 7,900–7,950 range stabilizes; if it breaks below 78,960, I will continue to wait. With earnings season and policy season overlapping, volatility will increase, so being out of the market is itself a position.
$BTC $ETH This wave of Bitcoin's rise is essentially driven by short sellers covering their positions, not new funds entering the market. Don't get carried away by the gains; be cautious about chasing the highs. 🔥 Nonfarm payrolls expected just over 60,000, previous value was only 29,000!
Friday 21:30 Beijing time, US October nonfarm payrolls released
According to foreign media summaries, the market roughly expects an increase just over 60,000, unemployment rate holding at 4.2%, average hourly earnings rising about 0.3% month-over-month; September's figure was only 29,000, unemployment rate 4.2%, hourly earnings rose just 0.1%
During my years at the futures company, nonfarm night was the one night I dared not sleep
The data itself isn't scary, what's scary is the first minute after release, which way the market swings
If the numbers are too strong, with new jobs far exceeding expectations and hourly earnings hot, interest rate expectations will be revised upward, growth stocks and Space Chain may shake briefly, and SPCK can't avoid it either. If too weak, risk appetite warms up, SPCX is more likely to rise along.
If basically in line, just quietly watch your own levels, no move if levels hold
$SPCX perpetual is around 133.8 now, down about 1% in 24 hours. Hold long term, no short-term rush before data, after nonfarm lands and stands back above 135, still bullish
#美国10月非农前瞻：就业增长或牵动12月加息预期