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Why are we bearish on $SPCX? Can Tesla and SPCX still merge?
1. A few days ago, before the earnings report was released, funds had already positioned themselves to bet on positive earnings, driving a rally based on the earnings news, providing an exit window for those early positions. After the earnings release, no additional positive surprises exceeded market expectations, causing buying to quickly dry up and the positive sentiment to turn negative. The October unlocking batch has been fully completed, and the selling pressure from previous unlocks has been fully released, so it is no longer the main cause of the current decline.
2. The market is speculating on the potential merger between Tesla and SPCX, but after the earnings report, there is no new information to support this narrative. With the U.S. midterm elections approaching, the election results could bring potential regulatory uncertainties to the merger approval process, creating ongoing disturbances that make investors hesitant to aggressively push prices higher.
3. From the chart structure, after the high of 166 was retraced, every rebound has been weak, consistently failing to break through resistance above. The price center of gravity continues to shift downward, and a downtrend has formed. There is a large amount of trapped positions above, and bulls lack the momentum to free high-level chips. Most rebounds are traps to lure buyers.
The positive earnings have already been priced in, with no new catalysts to follow. Coupled with regulatory uncertainty from the elections suppressing risk appetite, the market shows clear signs of weakness. Therefore, we are bearish and prioritize shorting on rebounds! I will share my thoughts simultaneously on Crab Roe Castle, okay!
#美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高 The market pulls back one step, altcoins retreat three steps.
BTC down 3.4% in 24h. TIA down 12.8%. PYTH down 12.7%. ZAMA also dropped 12.5%. In the same wave of pullback, the decline varies by more than three times.
TIA slid from 0.532 to 0.4635, PYTH dropped from 0.0696 to 0.0608, with even uglier intraday lows. Once popular infrastructure and oracle projects are all getting hit today.
But after checking around, I didn’t see any confirmed negative news at the project level. Multiple reports blame the overall risk-off sentiment and altcoin sell-off. CoinStats mentioned a recent large unlock of TIA, but the timing and scale vary by source, and it’s not confirmed as the direct cause. I won’t speculate on this.
High beta old coins probably just have this fate. When the market shrinks slightly, they’re the first to be thrown off the bus. The narrative is still hanging, but the buying has fled. TIA has already dropped over 90% from its historical high just above $20 😅
So I want to ask everyone: Is this wave priced in early due to unlocks, or is it simply being dumped along with the market? #波动雷达：币种异动观察 $TIA $BTC Brothers, Intelligence Bro is here to review this brutal liquidation wave, the data is shocking!
In the past 24 hours, 238,800 people across the network were liquidated, totaling $1.53 billion. Long positions liquidated $1.29 billion, accounting for 83.8%, basically wiping out the previously accumulated long leverage.
By coin:
$BTC liquidated $499 million after dropping below 80,000, with high-leverage longs cutting losses as the core factor;
$ETH liquidated $358 million, with sharper declines and intensity, weak capital support, and rebounds likely to face selling pressure;
$SOL liquidated $82.6 million, close to one-sided liquidation, with around $100 becoming a key battleground between bulls and bears.
From Intelligence Bro's perspective: after concentrated clearing of long leverage, a short-term oversold rebound may occur. Considering the high-interest-rate environment, don't rush to catch falling knives, control your positions, and wait for sentiment to clear before making moves!
#加密行业协同守护资产安全 The emergence of the Hormuz reopening plan has driven oil prices down, and the risk appetite recovery is a short-term positive for highly volatile coins like BCH, but the market has not shown a unilateral strong trend. The 4-hour level is still in an upward structure, but the 1-hour has weakened. I judge that the current situation is a high-level consolidation after a rebound rather than a trend reversal.
The 24-hour amplitude exceeds 11%, with the price stabilizing at 283.53 after falling from the high of 293.35, only 4.82% above the 1-hour low, indicating decent support below. However, the order book's top 10 buy-sell ratio is only 0.05, with 2055 sell orders against 110 buy orders, showing clear selling pressure dominance. The funding rate of 0.01% indicates mild bullish sentiment, and the open interest of 79,000 shows no significant increase, with weak volume-price coordination.
Strategy-wise, a light long position can be tried on a pullback to 278.65, with a stop loss at 273.85 and a target of 290.35; if the rebound meets resistance near 292.15, a short position can be taken with a stop loss at 296.45 and a target of 284.85. Single position size should be controlled within 20%, and exit strictly on a breakout.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wish you successful trading. —
$BCH#霍尔木兹重开方案浮现，油价回落能否持续？
#霍尔木兹重开方案浮现，油价回落能否持续？
$BCH #SanDisk Q1 revenue up 378% year-on-year, strong Q2 revenue guidance Storage demand surge boosts tech risk appetite, but ZEC did not follow the rally, I tend to be cautiously bearish. Price has fallen from the high of 1397.77, down 8.8% from the peak, buy-sell ratio only 0.06, heavy selling pressure, funding rate 0.01% shows bulls are still paying to hold positions, open interest of 114,000 coins indicates crowding. Rebound momentum is insufficient, chasing longs is risky. Strategy: light short positions can be tried on a rebound to 1279.6, stop loss at 1321.8, target 1158.3; if it pulls back to 1181 without breaking, short-term long positions can be taken, stop loss 1164.5, target 1243.7. Single position size controlled within 5%, strict stop loss, no adding to positions.
——This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wish you successful trading.——
$ZEC#Amazon Q3 revenue slightly below expectations, AWS growth rate at nearly five-year high
#SanDisk Q1 revenue up 378% year-on-year, strong Q2 revenue guidance
$ZEC After Google's earnings report, the stock price plummeted, raising doubts about AI investment returns. The contraction in risk appetite has spread to the crypto market, with BTC under pressure and weakening today. I judge that the short-term correction is not yet complete but is close to the oversold zone. The four-hour chart shows a drop of over 8% from the high, while the one-hour chart is only 0.61% above the low. The short-term downtrend is easing, creating a divergence with the long-term downtrend; 76,472 is a key support level, and 81,944 is a clear resistance above. The buy-sell ratio of 0.84 indicates sellers are dominant, and the funding rate remains positive at 0.01, meaning bullish sentiment has not been fully cleared. Strategically, one can lightly go long at 76,985 with a stop loss at 76,240 and a target of 79,310; if the rebound meets resistance at 79,860, one can reverse to a short position with a stop loss at 80,420 and a target of 77,150. Single position size should not exceed 20%.
——This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you successful trading.——
$BTC#谷歌财报后股价大跌，AI投资回报受关注
#谷歌财报后股价大跌，AI投资回报受关注
$BTC Market rumors triggered a chain reaction, but ETF funds made the opposite choice
A certain platform's wallet activity drew market attention, triggering about $628 million in position adjustments within an hour, with the total network scale approaching $1.5 billion within 24 hours, long positions accounting for about 97%. BTC dipped to a six-week low of $76,675, currently around $77,000; ETH hit a nearly two-month low at $2,238; SOL fell below 95.
Capital flows are opposite to price direction: BTC spot ETF net inflow of 1,684 BTC in one day, about $135 million, totaling about $424 million over three consecutive days; ETH ETF net outflow of 21.11 million, continuing for four days; SOL ETF net outflow of 27.69 million, with one product alone accounting for 23.68 million.
$BTC around 77,000. 76,675 was the recently tested low; only a rebound above 80,000 can be considered a stop-loss. ETFs are accumulating, but the price has not yet caught up.
$ETH around 2,250–2,320. Large addresses sold about 160,000 ETH over several days, platform balances increased by about 100,000, support at 2,385 lost, technicals point to the $2,000 range.
$SOL around 95. Limited connection to the event itself, but thin order books amplified the decline, ETFs have had net outflows for four consecutive days.
In short: volatility comes from rumors, but the money’s choice is honest—BTC ETFs are accumulating, ETH and SOL are withdrawing.
For record-keeping only, not investment advice.
#加密行业协同守护资产安全 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 在币圈这些年，我会毫不犹豫地选择观望。 但是这里的观望绝不是指死死拿着重仓不动，而是指清空大部分风险敞口，以绝对中立的姿态退场，直到冲突解除。在极端且互相冲突的宏观信号面前，任何形式的重仓降仓，本质上都还带着赌方向的执念；而真正的观望，是彻底放下执念，向市场认怂。 一 宏观冲突的本质是逻辑失效，而非打折促销。 很多新手交易员有个致命误区，认为宏观信号冲突时，市场大跌就是抄底机会”，或者大涨就是逃顶时机。但多年经验告诉我，宏观信号冲突，意味着市场原有的定价模型失效了。 币圈虽然常被冠以独立行情的称号，但其底层资产依然高度受制于美元流动性。当宏观叙事陷入自相矛盾时，大资金都在重新评估模型，此时市场的波动率会剧烈放大。在这种神仙打架的混沌期，你连对手盘是谁、他们基于什么逻辑在交易都看不清。此时如果仅仅是降仓，哪怕只留了10%的仓位，一旦遇到极端双向插针行情，这10%的杠杆仓位也可能瞬间灰飞烟灭。观望，是对抗逻辑失效期最安全的护城河。 二 币圈的高杠杆特性$ETH The more the market hesitates, the greater the opportunity might be.
Tonight, many are bearish, thinking that with such low market sentiment and it being Friday, funds are definitely retreating.
However, from the data, Sister Wen sees that long positions are quietly flowing in, and buy orders at the 2200 rebound level are increasing. Sister Wen estimates that at the 2200 rebound level, the bulls will definitely launch an attack, delivering a heavy blow to the bears.
Sister Wen thinks it’s possible to go long around 2200-2210, with a steady take profit at 2260, and aggressive take profit targets at 2280 or even 2300. If it falls below 2150, stop loss promptly. #OKX、ICE与Trade.xyz联手，推动永续合约进入美国合规市场 79,220这条线，BTC今天是第四次测试。前三次都守住了——第四次还会吗？ 先说新闻。价格侧：BTC报80,113.5美元，24小时 -0.55%、近一周 -1.92%；20日区间79,220.1到84,899.6——79,220是第四次测试的支撑。资金侧：ETF最新单日净流入1.499亿（连续第二天）、5日净流入9,260万、10日净流入2.929亿。情绪侧：恐惧贪婪指数51。宏观侧：美元102.11（-0.08%）、黄金4,076.6（+0.62%）、标普500 7,743.98。 再看资金影响。前三次测试时，ETF资金分别是流出、收窄、流入——卖压在递减，买盘在增强。今天是第四次，资金仍在流入（1.499亿）。这是支撑有效的核心证据。 对BTC的含义：如果第四次守住，79,220会成为这轮调整的确认底部；如果跌破，说明前三次只是延缓。关键看日线收盘和资金是否继续流入——两者同时满足，才叫守住。 我接下来盯四个指标：一是79,220的日线收盘；二是ETF能否连续第三天流入；三是美元指数102.11的方向；四是恐惧贪婪指数是否跌破45。 所以问题留给你：第四次测试会守住吗？扣 1，DOGE sits at $DOGE 0.0758, sliding from $DOGE 0.097 down past moving averages. Crypto always moves in waves: old bull runs saw massive crashes before hitting all-time highs near $DOGE 0.73. This dip mimics past cycles where panic shook out weak hands before explosive pumps. Will Dogecoin bounce back and ever break its all-onio time high record again? #IntelQ4OutlookMiss
Oct 30 Q3 Actual Revenue $16.51B +21% YoY In-Line vs $16.5B EPS $0.52 +126% YoY +30% Beat vs $0.40 GAAP $0.60 DCAI $7.318B +78% YoY Beat +$650M Strongest 15y Profit $3.039B Foundry $6.7B +58% Beat CCPG $8.097B -5% Miss -$700M FCF $1.6B Miss vs $3B Q4 Guidance $15-16B $15.5B mid Miss vs $17.06-17.3B -$1.6B EPS $0.25 Miss vs $0.43-0.45 -42% Gross 38% -5pp -600bps Reasons PC -12% -10% 2027 Memory surge Israel explosion $300M Q4+Q1 Stock $92.07→$68-26% Earnings Oct 29 Catalyst #Bisakah pertumbuhan tinggi bisnis penyimpanan SanDisk berlanjut? Brothers, tonight's situation looks scary, I see the hidden lines have changed flavor.
📊 Hidden lines before the draw
There is also an employment cost data release tonight. I won't guess the outcome, just looking at the position changes one hour before the draw: all four coins' one-hour positions turned positive, BTC up 0.65%, ETH up 0.92%, SOL up 0.31%, ZEC up 0.59%. My judgment is that someone reached out before the landing, not waiting for the draw to act.
🪙 SOL's hidden worries
But looking longer term, SOL shrank the most severely, with a 13.34% reduction in 24-hour positions, ETH shrank 4.96%, ZEC 2.21%, BTC only 1.25%. SOL dropped 3.39% today, similar to others, but its positions fled fastest. My judgment is that SOL's leverage is moving faster than its price; the short-term positive flip is just to stop bleeding, not to recover.
⚔️ Position battles
Price-wise, BTC dropped 2.98% near 77752, ETH dropped 3.26% near 2247, SOL dropped 3.39% near 97.03, only ZEC rose 0.09% near 1263.75. Cost layering: BTC's position cost tops at 0.0094%, ZEC at 0.0096%, ETH only 0.0028%. My judgment is that adding positions during the drop and renewing at high costs means those taking over are not retail traders but are positioning ahead of the draw.
So tonight I won't chase shorts, only half-step follow; if this round of adding positions doesn't continue, I'll admit my mistake and exit, not holding on."Intel Plummets 22%: Storage 'Eating Meat', PC 'Getting Beaten', Don't Catch the Flying Knife!"
Friends, Intel's situation is truly brutal this time, plunging 22% after hours, with executives all complaining bitterly.
The underlying logic here is harsh: AI data centers are voraciously consuming resources, while traditional PCs can't even get a sip and are taking hits. The "storage super cycle" we talked about recently is now showing all its aftereffects. Upstream giants like SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron are making huge profits, but downstream PC manufacturers and chipmakers are crushed by the high memory costs. They produce but no one buys, and costs won't come down—how can this business survive?
So, don't get itchy to bottom-fish this declining sector just because it dropped 22%! A deep rebound in a declining sector does NOT equal a trend reversal; where the money flows in the industry chain is the key. AI computing power is still aggressively drawing capital, and the hard times for traditional hardware are far from over.
Speaking of storage, look at $SNDK as an example. While upstream price hikes benefit it, the chill of shrinking end-user demand will inevitably spread. Capital is extremely selective now, only recognizing the core computing power dividends.
Operational approach: Recognize reality and follow the trend. Don't stubbornly fight a downtrending industry chain; stabilize your positions, control your impulses, and absolutely don't get carried away!
#英特尔Q4业绩指引低于预期，股价大跌
$SNDK $HBAR
Enterprise adoption is an important part of Hedera's broader positioning. Its hashgraph technology offers an alternative to conventional blockchain architectures, while its governance model distinguishes it from many permissionless networks. Nevertheless, institutional interest should not automatically translate into token demand. The critical question is how much real network usage develops and whether that activity creates lasting economic value for HBAR.$OP
The Superchain concept makes Optimism particularly interesting from an infrastructure perspective. Instead of treating every Ethereum Layer-2 as an isolated competitor, the OP Stack creates an opportunity for multiple chains to share a common technological foundation. The important question is how much economic value this expanding ecosystem eventually creates for OP governance and its wider network.$BTC To be honest, I feel the market is a bit strange after the biggest hack in history.
BTC and other major coins only dropped about 6%, which is less than half of Google's decline due to a slightly missed earnings report (though still ridiculously strong).
The market's reaction is eerily calm; the market response to the Bybit hack was much more severe.
Theoretically, for a black swan event of this magnitude, it would be quite reasonable for BTC to drop below 60k. I'm curious whether I overestimated the impact of this crisis or the market underestimated its severity?
My personal view is that a powerful force (who could it be?) held back the sell-off and firmly defended the price today. But I am not optimistic about the subsequent market trend.$SNDK
SanDisk had its price target cut by two firms in one day: Bank of America cut it from 2500 to 2000, and Melius was even harsher, slashing it directly from 3600 to 2600. The stock price continued to fall overnight, and the SNDK token contract on OKX dropped from 1372 all the way down to 1201 before stabilizing, now hovering around 1216, down 11% in 24 hours.
Interestingly, the earnings report was not bad. Last quarter's revenue was $11 billion, and earnings per share were 49.51, both exceeding the upper guidance limit. The next quarter's guidance of 12.2-12.6 billion is also not low. This stock has risen 580% in a year, but now institutions are starting to mention the phrase "late cycle," and insiders have sold $120 million worth of shares in the past 90 days.
My view: The performance isn't bad; the price just moved ahead first. The price target cuts affect valuation multiples, not shipment volumes. I don't think the long-term logic for storage is broken, but the rhythm now has to give way to sentiment. On days like this, I'm not in a hurry to reach out.
#美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高 180,000 liquidations, $1.1 billion vanished into thin air. Binance hot wallet exposed about $3.5 billion in fund anomalies, combined with hawkish moves from the US, Europe, and Japan, market panic ignited instantly.
BTC ($77,296, -5.38%): Double blow. The Binance security incident was the trigger, but the root cause is macro — the Fed's December rate hike probability surged, the Nasdaq weakened simultaneously, and BTC, as a high-beta asset, was sold off first. If the $76,675 low point doesn't hold, the next watch level is around $76,500.
ETH ($2,232, -5.65%): More troublesome than BTC. Besides the market drag, ETH faces structural selling pressure: whales sold about 160,000 ETH (over $348 million) within days, exchange balances increased by 100,000 ETH simultaneously, combined with upgrade delays, the key support at $2,385 has been breached.
OKB ($111, -2.21%): Relatively resistant to decline, but don't mistake it for strength. OKB closely follows BTC, buy orders are noticeably thin during rebounds, support near $109 is being repeatedly tested, showing fragility. The platform coin's buyback logic is not a shield against liquidity contraction.
This is not a single negative factor, but a triple resonance of security anxiety + macro tightening + tech stock sell-off. Panic selling has not yet cleared; right-side signals are more worth waiting for than just "it has fallen a lot".
#美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高 An insider of AXIS took 76 million tokens from the multisig wallet, dumping them to cause a 40% drop, and someone cashed out 5 million USDC. The tokens were sold via DEX, with some transferred to the Bitget exchange $AXIS When I saw this message, what came to mind was a flywheel spinning faster and faster. But I’m used to first looking for the brakes before listening to the story of acceleration.
According to Bitcoin Treasuries quoting Strategy's Michael Saylor, the amount of $BTC purchased by Bitcoin treasury companies has reached 1.6 times the miners' output. The story he describes is: companies buy coins to push up the price, credit and equity conditions improve, then they refinance to buy more coins; companies thus help each other.
I think this is somewhat positive for demand, but the "supply shock" cannot be confirmed solely based on this ratio. New miner output does not equal all market-available chips, and existing holders may also sell. My speculation is that if financing conditions weaken, the ability to continue buying coins will also be limited. The flywheel can accelerate, but that doesn’t mean it can keep spinning on its own forever.
What do you all think? Will this story end with continuous absorption of chips, or will financing capacity hit a ceiling first? $PEPE Brother Sun's associated address just withdrew 50 million dollars worth of PEPE from the exchange.
They directly transferred it into a cold wallet, holding nearly 3% of the entire network's spot supply alone.
A huge chunk of on-exchange liquidity has been forcibly pulled out.
The sell orders are so thin, the short sellers' borrowing costs will be forced up sooner or later.
All the chips are locked in the hands of a big whale, clearly aiming for a short squeeze.
#PEPE
$PEPE
👇$DOOD DOOD, the market looks increasingly strange.
In just one month, the net inflow into contracts has directly reached over 10 million dollars, equivalent to 46% of the total market cap.
The most incredible part is that the fee rate is actually negative; the short sellers are paying interest every day to hold on, making the market appear calm on the surface.
Nearly half of the market cap's funds are stuck in contracts paying interest, purely serving as fuel for the main players to squeeze the shorts.
As long as the buying pressure pushes through a bit, these shorts will instantly become the fuel that drives the price up.
#DOOD
$DOOD
👇$CORE $CORE The last excess of 69 million tokens was exposed, and the gang's explanation was a node vulnerability. This indicates that the project never locked the total token supply, leaving a backdoor, meaning it can issue unlimited tokens. Last time, the exposed excess was 69 million, but over the years, many more 69 million increments may have been issued without being exposed.The overall network $ETH long-short ratio has surged to 3.20, and this number itself is a silent alarm: when almost everyone is on the same side, who is left on the opposing side in the market? 😳 The real tension is not about whether the direction is right or wrong, but that your current empty position is being torn by two forces simultaneously — the constant flood of profit screenshots in the group chat, and the dull pain of the price stubbornly refusing to pull back to your preset buy point. First, understand the structure. A long-short ratio of 3.20 means the size of long positions is more than three times that of short positions, which is a typical signal of crowded sentiment. It does not predict price rises or falls but reveals an imbalance in position distribution: once the price experiences a rapid pullback, the stop-loss chains of high-leverage longs will trigger more densely than usual, creating a self-reinforcing downward impulse. In other words, crowding itself does not create a top, but it amplifies the slope of any fluctuation. The trend of $BTC remains the macro anchor for $ETH; if $BTC first shows stagnation or a sharp drop, the long liquidation on the $ETH side will be magnified exponentially. Next, consider the human nature aspect — this is where most people truly lose money. You clearly set your buy conditions, the price hasn’t reached them, and your plan hasn’t been triggered, yet your hands start itching as group members show off their profits one by one. The root of the problem is not that you misjudged the direction, but that your frame of reference has quietly shifted — you slide from "Is my plan valid?" to "Am I missing out?". Friends making money, trending topics flooding the chat, sudden price surges — among these three, the most damaging is often not the market itself, but the social pressure of "others have already gotten on board." It makes you enter the market prematurely before conditions are met, turning the memoSharing a small strategy for earning points on Outcomes. I tested it last week and made it into the top 1000.
I don't have time to monitor it myself, so I'm sharing it: brothers who have time or AI tools can use this strategy and should have a chance to get into the top 100.
The gameplay is to provide liquidity for some events: taking the event in Figure 1 as an example, the mainstream prediction market currently shows a 90% probability for "No," but here you can buy at 66%, and the recent sell orders are at 87%, leaving a 20% gap in between.
That means if you buy at a 67% limit price and sell at an 86% limit price, your points can increase by 30% in one go. That's the kind of operation I did last week to accumulate points.
But because there are too many competitors, people often snipe my orders. Since I don't have time to watch the market, I basically only completed one transaction per day last week. Brothers who have time to monitor or have AI tools can reliably get into the top 100 using this method. $BTC $005930, semiconductor profits hit a new high, will the drag from the consumer business continue? Samsung's Q3 revenue set a record, with strong revenue and operating profit in the DS division, but the DX division posted an operating loss, showing a divergence between memory market conditions and end-user demand. AI storage demand supports profits, while mobile phones and consumer electronics are affected by costs and competition. If HBM supply and advanced product mix improve, and DX returns to profitability, the profit structure will be more balanced; if the consumer side remains weak and memory prices decline, high prosperity in a single business will struggle to sustain overall growth.October 30 Evening Session | 80,000 Lost, Capital Support Fails
BTC 77,800 (-3.5%): Fell below the 80,000 mark during the day, hitting a low near 76,495. The 80,000 level has turned from support into resistance. The 76,500-77,500 range is a key defense zone; losing it accelerates the drop toward 75,000. Resistance for the rebound is at 79,100. Despite continuous ETF inflows, prices did not rise but fell, casting doubt on the support effect.
ETH 2,210 (-4.2%): Broke previous support, with intensified whale selling and continued deterioration of capital conditions. Immediate support is at 2,176; losing this opens the 2,000 level. Resistance lies between 2,323-2,354. ETFs have cumulatively lost over 1.3 billion in October.
ZEC 1,230 (-1.5%): Relatively resistant but structure has weakened. Strong support is at 1,189; losing it tests 1,160. Resistance band for rebound is 1,249-1,280.
On the macro front, the Federal Reserve remains hawkish and on hold, tech earnings drag down the Nasdaq, and overall risk appetite is under pressure. The divergence between capital inflows and price is the core current contradiction; relying solely on inflows is insufficient to reverse the weakness.
Defense bottom lines: 76,500 (BTC), 2,176 (ETH), 1,189 (ZEC).
$BTC $ETH $SOL #美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高 $MSTR Q3 earnings report released, overall in line with expectations, confirming the previous judgment that the Bitcoin rebound significantly improved the company's profits.
First, the core data: Q3 revenue was $125.4 million, down about 3% year-over-year; net profit reached $19.53 billion, with diluted earnings per share of $44.75. The company recorded $20.91 billion in Bitcoin fair value gains, which is the main reason for the substantial profit increase.
As of the end of Q3, Strategy held approximately 848,500 BTC, continuing to expand its holdings. Meanwhile, the company's USD asset reserves reached about $5.07 billion, which, based on current interest and preferred stock dividend expenses, can cover about 3.4 years.
Although the company holds more BTC, due to financing and share issuance factors, the number of BTC per share has decreased. This means that growth in holdings does not necessarily translate to proportional gains for common shareholders.
My view is that this earnings report basically fulfills the performance expectations brought by Bitcoin's rise. In the short term, attention should be paid to BTC's subsequent trend, MSTR's financing costs, and the market's attitude toward its valuation premium.
MSTR essentially remains a Bitcoin investment vehicle with leverage and financing structure. When Bitcoin rises, it may gain higher elasticity; but when the market reverses, volatility and risk are also amplified.
#MSTR再卖1638枚比特币，规模腰斩 "A 1.39% buffer, with a 100x leverage shake on $XAU — this is the most dangerous aspect of this position."
$XAU 100x short, 4036.4→3981.1, +137.00%. Conversely: it only needs to rebound about 1.39% for this 137% gain to vanish completely.
What does 1.39% mean on $XAU? A normal upward spike, or even a large order pull-up in the order book. In other words, this position doesn't require any negative news to fade, no trend reversal, nor anyone deliberately going long — just a technical rebound is enough to wipe it out.
100x leverage magnifies 1.39% into 137%, but it also magnifies 1.39% into zero. It offers huge profits but is always ready to take them back.
The market itself is stable: price is running low. But the key resistance above is not far away.
So I never decide to close based on "how much profit" but only on how far it is from the cost line. 1.39% looks like a buffer, but market fluctuations never make sense.
Only one action: push to break even, at worst lock in zero, and do not expand exposure further. $BTC $ETH #美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高 Seeing this, I felt the familiar vibe from the previous round: traditional finance moving onto the blockchain, and the market easily pulling out the "institutions are coming" script. But this time, I'm more interested in how the business integrates rather than how big the brand is.
Standard Chartered stated that it already provides digital asset custody in Luxembourg and DIFC, with LMAX's mandate covering its Luxembourg entity and Dubai branch. Another collateral connection arrangement will allow clients to use bank-custodied tokens as collateral for trading.
My judgment is that this is more like infrastructure catch-up within the cycle, not necessarily indicating that incremental funds have arrived. Compared to just custody, this time it also involves how assets participate in trading: custody solves the storage part, while collateral connection may improve asset utilization efficiency. If the connection is actually implemented, I speculate institutional clients will benefit more directly than ordinary retail investors. I'll first observe business usage and won't rush to count it as a market catalyst.Binance was hacked for $6.3 billion, with $1.5 billion liquidated overnight, yet BTC only dropped to a low of 76,642.
It just hit the 21-week moving average, only 30 dollars short.
Honestly, I was quite surprised to see this candlestick. Such a major bearish event couldn't break through, which indicates someone is buying at the bottom. But I don't think the bottom has been reached yet; volume hasn't picked up, and panic hasn't set in.
So I reviewed all the cycles, on-chain data, moving averages, and macro factors I've been watching these past two weeks and wrote a long article.
What concerns me most is a coincidence: three completely unrelated methods all point to the same range, 70,000 to 74,000. After doing cycle analysis for so long, this is rare.
My judgment is that it will hold first, then drop. It will likely hold before the election, possibly even rebound near 80,000, but the final drop may not be over. The timeframe I’m focusing on is November 16 to 21, the week Anthropic goes public.
Of course, I could be wrong. So in the long article, I clearly explain how to respond to each possible scenario and when to admit being wrong.
The first test point is the weekly close at 8 AM next Monday; whether 75,900 holds is critical.
If interested, you can read the referenced long article, and feel free to debate.
This does not constitute investment advice. Is it a good time to bottom-fish now? Looking at the patterns before previous midterm elections, some insights can be drawn,
✅ Commonality: In the past three midterm elections, after the election results were finalized, the bottom of the bear market for that cycle was reached within several dozen days, but in the short term (within 1 month) there was mostly decline or consolidation; over a 12-month horizon, all ended up with gains.
❌ Differences: In the 2014, 2018, and 2022 cycles, on election day, BTC had already dropped 69%~77% from the cycle peak, already deep in a bear market;
But 2026 is different: the current pullback from the peak is smaller, and the environment with ETFs and institutional funds is completely different from the previous three times, so the old playbook cannot be directly applied. However, it is still not recommended to go all-in bottom-fishing on the day of a sharp drop, as this indicates the downtrend has not yet stopped. $BTC $ETH $SOL Seeing institutions and companies putting Bitcoin on their balance sheets, I don't think retail investors have no place. It's true that research and capital put you at a disadvantage, but I don't have to report quarterly results, nor do I have to force trades just to prove I'm working. Dollar-cost averaging should follow a pace you can bear; there's no need to increase positions just because of company buy announcements. Yet every time I talk about holding coins long-term, someone always asks me what I think about next week—ah, does that also come with a short-term forecast?$FIL's long-term logic in the decentralized storage sector holds imaginative potential, as the AI wave continuously drives massive data storage demand, with clear industry growth. Filecoin, as a representative project in this sector, aims to build an open distributed storage market, differentiating itself from centralized storage providers like Alibaba Cloud and AWS, reducing the risk of single-platform lock-in, and theoretically better aligning with the vision of large-scale, decentralized data storage.
However, there is an unavoidable core contradiction in this sector: a large amount of idle computing power and storage capacity in the network does not equate to real, sustainable business demand. Currently, node supply is expanding rapidly, but much of it is space provided by miners for mining purposes, not storage orders generated spontaneously by market demand.
Therefore, the key issue boils down to one point: can Filecoin continuously incubate stable, reusable real storage demand, allowing storage providers to earn stable income, rather than relying solely on token incentives to maintain operations? Only if real demand is realized can the entire ecosystem have a foundation for long-term self-sustaining profitability; if demand does not keep pace with supply, the huge idle capacity will continue to suppress returns and extend the project's realization cycle.Core logic behind $BTC's deep correction this round
Many attribute this drop of Bitcoin simply to exchange security incidents, but this is only the trigger, not the fundamental cause. Platforms have already responded quickly. The deeper selling pressure comes from multiple macro and capital factors resonating.
US stock earnings reports landed early morning, tech sector collectively weakened, overall market risk appetite quickly declined, Bitcoin followed risk assets under pressure. This earnings season often shows a pattern of initial rise followed by suppression. International crude oil remains volatile at high levels, inflation concerns rise again, the market begins to reassess the timing of Fed rate cuts, US Treasury yields strengthen, continuously suppressing high-volatility crypto assets. Previously, a large amount of profit-taking accumulated above the 87,000 high point, spot chips bought at low levels are concentrated for realization, combined with ETF capital outflows and institutional phased withdrawals, there is a lack of large buy orders around 80,000 to support. After breaking key support, long leverage cascades liquidate, accelerating the sell-off. Many investors rush to bottom-fish at short-term lows, easily getting trapped again.
The key retracement range this round is 75,000‑78,000. Currently, the 76,500 spike has not stabilized, likely to test the bottom a second time. Focus on support at 74,500‑75,800. Tonight, watch if the 78,187 resistance can be broken; failure to hold above will continue the downtrend. 78,187 and 77,475 serve as short-term bull-bear dividing lines to judge the subsequent market direction. $BTC $ETH #美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高 #英特尔Q4业绩指引低于预期，股价大跌
Intel (INTC) had a "paper-strong" Q3, but once the Q4 guidance was released, the stock plunged over 20% in after-hours trading—a classic case of "past beats expectations, future repriced."
Intel is now an "AI CPU cyclical stock + heavy asset turnaround stock," not a pure AI narrative stock.
The long-term logic remains intact: server CPU demand is expected through 2027–2028; the short-term logic has been disproven: capacity, gross margin, and PC segments are all under pressure, 2027 is still an "investment year," and free cash flow turning positive is unlikely. This drop is not a kill on performance but a kill on the "recovery pace." The previous rise was based on expectations; now the market has pushed those expectations back by two quarters. There are only three observation points: 18A mass production yield, Intel 3 supply ramp-up, and when PCs will stop declining. Until these are seen, don’t mistake the plunge for a golden opportunity—at best, it’s a "left-side observation pool."$xSNDK Nobody expected it. Despite the earnings report, stock split, and buyback all being positive, Sandisk still took a direct hit in the afternoon. Simply put, this is a typical "good news priced in" scenario — the stock had already risen significantly, and a bunch of investors who had been waiting took profits as the news landed. On top of that, some institutions downgraded their target prices, the entire tech sector weakened collectively, and with several forces combined, the price was pushed down directly, dragging the whole storage sector into a dive. The shorts took a bite and also casually went all in on XP for fun haha😄
This is easy to understand in the crypto space too: cold wallets and node archives all rely on storage. If this wave signals that people are starting to worry about the storage cycle peaking, then not only chip stocks but also the crypto infrastructure line could easily get dragged down.
Here's a thought: this decline doesn't mean the story is dead; it's more about cooling off overheated sentiment at the top. Don't rush to stubbornly hold or bottom-fish; first see if key support levels can hold. If storage prices and cloud vendor orders remain stable afterward, there's a chance to rebound. But if it breaks down all the way, then this market cycle will need more time. $SNDK #闪迪Q1营收同比增378%，Q2营收指引强劲 $XAU vs $XAG
Short sellers are having a pretty good week.
Almost every short on gold and silver is sitting in profit, while longs are getting absolutely crushed.
And here's the problem with trying to catch the bottom: fresh money is still leaning toward selling.
Silver looks more vulnerable to me, while gold is holding up a little better.
I'm bearish on both for now, but I wouldn't get too comfortable opening fresh shorts here. A wave of profit-taking could trigger a nasty bounce.#StrategyQ3 net profit hits a single-quarter record high, with significant contribution from digital asset income. Strategy's earnings report is truly surreal.
Net profit reached $19.5 billion, looks intimidating, right? But if you look closely, its software main business only earned $125 million, down 3%. This $19.5 billion profit is entirely supported by a $20.9 billion unrealized gain from holding Bitcoin.
To put it plainly, this is no longer a software company; it's a Bitcoin super whale disguised as a software company, wildly leveraged.
The earnings report reflects past gains. Now Bitcoin is hovering around the 80,000 mark; if the market weakens, this huge unrealized profit can quickly turn into a floating loss. This stock is no longer about fundamentals; it's just a Bitcoin amplifier—just watch the show. $MSTR $BTC BNB fell below $750, currently at 749.99, a 0.22% drop in 5 minutes.
The drop is small, but the level is critical. 750 is a recent battleground between bulls and bears; the level itself has no magic, the magic lies in the stop-loss orders stacked just below it. Once it breaks through, programmed sell orders and manual stop-losses trigger simultaneously, causing short-term volatility to exceed what fundamentals would justify. This time it's only 0.22%, so selling pressure hasn't been released yet; it looks less like a panic sell and more like probing below the level.
$BNB's movement is tightly linked to the exchange ecosystem. The strength or weakness of the platform token often precedes overall market sentiment changes—trading volume, listing pace, on-chain activity all eventually reflect in the price. So after breaking 750, what matters isn't the 0.22% drop itself, but whether it can recover in the next few days. If the market is still rising but BNB can't reclaim this level, it indicates funds are moving away from the platform token to elsewhere, which is the real signal.
At this level, neither side is comfortable. Bulls have lost the key level, which is a psychological setback; bears haven't confirmed accelerated decline either, as a single bullish candle can repair the pattern. At times like this, it's best to avoid heavy bets on direction in the middle ground.
Watch two things: whether it can reclaim 750—standing back above means a false break, failure means the consolidation range will shift lower; and volume—declines on low volume usually mean grinding, but declines on high volume require caution. Let the market give the answer itself. Watch BTC together; when platform tokens diverge from the main coin, BNB often moves first.1.953 billion USD — As soon as the granary door opened, the grains poured out with a rush, but I squatted by the field and grabbed some soil; the soil was cool.
This season's accounts show a huge harvest on the surface: a net profit of 1.953 billion, which breaks down to 44.75 per share of rent. But the old hands all know you have to split the granary in two. Half is the batch of green shoots stored in the cellar, worth 2.091 billion, which is the surplus value created by price increases; the other half is the real work done in the field, sweating it out — the software field had a 3% drop in yield year-on-year, leaving only 125.4 million.
When you calculate it this way, it becomes clear: this is not a harvest dug out by hoes, but a harvest inflated by the granary itself. Old farmers who have worked the land all their lives fear mistaking the floating price in the granary for actual food. Crops that haven't left the ground, haven't been dried, and haven't been weighed are called green shoots, not grain. When prices rise, the ledger magically shows a bigger granary; when prices fall, the grain in the granary shrinks by itself — the scale hasn't moved, but the numbers deflate first. Now that the market outside is cooling and the soil moisture is worsening day by day, future harvests on the books will depend entirely on whether the heavens smile, not on skill.
What really worries me is that field with reduced yield. Three ridges, a 3% drop means the plowing effort and fertilizing timing didn't keep up. The granary's price increase is luck; harvesting grain in the field is skill. Accounts propped up by luck will have to pay back principal and interest if an early frost hits. The old saying goes "low grain prices hurt farmers," but actually, floating profits hurt farmers too — they make you mistakenly think there's grain in the granary, so you prematurely use next year's seeds.
As for those tickets fluctuating with this field, frankly, others are putting your green shoots on the scale for you. When grain prices ring, the scale weight wobbles; you watch the numbers jump, I watch the soil moisture — the topsoil is dry, but underneath it's still damp. Whether the harvest will succeed depends on checking the ears after autumn; just seeing yellow tips doesn't count.
I don't chase trends with this field, only the solar terms. No one wants to go to the field at planting time, but everyone wants to join at harvest. Right now, other granaries are full, but my seedlings aren't all in yet; no rush, no scramble; if moisture is insufficient, wait for rain; if no rain, wait for next season. The land doesn't lie, but the accounts can fool you for a whole year.
Besides, the full granary's grain is calculated at market price, not weighed. Market price flips with the wind; last night it was golden, this morning it's green. When it really comes time to use the grain, only the software field with a 3% yield drop can be cooked; the rest are green shoots stored in the cellar, never seeing light.
The granary stores floating prices; the field grows the real food; floating prices can fill the granary overnight, but can also empty it overnight. #strategyq3profitsurgesThe very first move was a sucker punch: Alphabet dropped 12.64% in a single day, wiping out $500 billion in market value from the board in one trading session, with free cash flow negative $9.1 billion, marking the second consecutive quarter of negative cash flow. This is not a black swan event; it's a deliberate sacrifice — but the player making the move has yet to prove that sacrificing the piece will lead to an open line.
I've played chess all my life, and what I fear most is not a fierce opponent, but one who makes a move that "looks like a mistake but is actually a long-term calculation." The market's current interpretation is: the pawn chain of the old mainstay, search advertising, is loosening, while the cloud front is advancing rapidly but has committed a large number of pieces along the AI computing power diagonal, leaving the center empty and the cash flow statement empty. The material is lagging, and what is gained is only "space" — data centers, racks, parameter scale. Whether this spatial advantage can be converted into an offensive depends on moves three steps ahead, not the current turn.
The real key is not the drop in price but the rating structure: three major banks have lowered target prices but maintained positive ratings. This is a typical "disagreement in position evaluation" — they understand the pieces are unbalanced, but no one dares to concede defeat at the opening of the midgame. Both the side sacrificing pawns and the side receiving pawns are still calculating; the outcome is undecided, and volatility is the most expensive thing during this calculation period.
Now look at the linked tokenized asset tied to the AMD ecosystem. It resembles a pawn formation in the endgame: one side collapses, and the knight on the other side immediately loses position. When liquidity, this "empty square," is withdrawn, the value of all pieces must be re-evaluated; it's not that its own fundamentals have changed, but the board has shrunk. Many think they are making directional bets, but they are actually just betting on the opponent's clock running out first.
My calculation habit is: before making a move, first calculate whether the king's wing will be safe twenty moves ahead. Twenty moves ahead in this game looks like this — AI capital expenditures must be realized step by step over the next four to six quarters; any realization below expectations will become a second check along the same diagonal; and continuous negative cash flow means exposing one's king on the open line with no buffer squares. This doesn't mean you can't play, but you can't play heavily. The most dangerous move in a sacrifice game is to push the queen forward before the opponent has responded.
A chess player's discipline has only one rule: do not raise the stakes in a position you cannot clearly calculate. The part of the current position that can be calculated is very short; the part that cannot is very long — and that's enough. #googlepostearningsdrop$UNITREE Yushi Technology released its first quarterly report after listing, with revenue of 665 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 69.93%, but net profit attributable to the parent company was 113 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.37%, significantly below market expectations, showing a situation of revenue growth without profit growth. The profit pressure mainly comes from a significant increase in R&D expenses, coupled with a decline in gross profit margin.
Fundamental data is somewhat bearish, but the market shows obvious contention: UNI contracts continue to maintain negative funding rates, requiring shorts to constantly pay funding costs. Even if the bearish direction is correct, they are prone to forced liquidation due to continuous fees, and the buy orders from liquidations support the price, causing the market to quickly rebound after hitting lows.
At this stage, the financial report is a medium- to long-term fundamental variable, while the funding rate is the core factor driving short-term market trends. Short-term contract battles are more influenced by funding rates.A $500 billion market cap isn't slowly eroding; it's like a whole ultra-tall glass curtain wall being blown off by wind pressure during the first full trading session, with shards raining down. When I look at this kind of earnings report, I first check the foundation, not the rooftop neon lights. Free cash flow in Q3 was about negative $9.1 billion, negative for two consecutive quarters. This isn't just decorative lines on the income statement; it's a continuous basement water backflow, a signal that the sump pump is still working overtime. No matter how fast cloud business grows, it's just a newly added tower; search advertising is the old building's load-bearing wall. When the load-bearing wall slows, the inter-floor displacement of the whole building becomes apparent. AI capital expenditure is like continuously adding underground floors and a core tube on the existing structure; cranes haven't been removed, load paths aren't closed, and rebar and formwork are consuming cash first, while the payment cycle is still stuck on the renderings. UBS, JPMorgan, and Goldman lowered target prices, yet some maintain positive ratings. In engineering terms, this is called a punch list with reservations: it's not undeliverable, but the node stresses haven't been fully calculated. The market's divergence on AI investment returns isn't emotional volatility; it's structural calculation without a unified model. For mapped targets like $xGOOGL, the price is more like the glass curtain wall's reflection—showing cloud growth by day and negative cash flow by night; the single-day 12.64% drop is just the sound of the curtain wall shattering. What really needs watching is whether the core tube continues to eccentric load. Capital expenditure rising while free cash flow is negative means adding floors while pumping out foundation water simultaneously; no pretty narrative can fix this settlement difference. More troubling is that the search advertising old load-bearing wall carries most of the vertical load; cloud and AI are the new core tube, but the new core tube isn't topped out yet, and the old wall already has cracks. Construction management can't just talk about speed. The liquidity of mapped targets is like an elevator shaft—usually smooth up and down, but when sentiment reverses, negative pressure can pull prices into overshoot. I don't look at curtain wall color differences or single-day reflections; I look at whether the nodes connecting cash flow, capital expenditure, and ad revenue lines close. My judgment is firm: the curtain wall can be rehung, but the eccentric compression of the core tube won't disappear just because of rating reservations. #googlepostearningsdropDamn, held a long position on BTC for 4 months, finally cashed out this afternoon 😂
There’s an address holding about 1000 $BTC, bought around 62,354 on July 6, 2025, and fully sold around 78,182 at about 3:42 PM today. This trade made roughly $15.83 million in profit. Held for about 4 months, finally cashed out.
The account’s cumulative profit once hit about $32.62 million on October 7, and when exiting, it still had around $19.95 to $20.55 million left, meaning it gave back over $10 million before leaving. Also cleared a few other long positions along the way, and that’s the story.
Diamond hands held for 4 months, gave back over $10 million from the peak but still walked away with about $20 million. In crypto, only those who can take profits and exit count as truly winning. I’m relieved just watching this; such patience is really rare.
For beginners, I suggest watching more and trading less. When buying coins, only buy $BTC Conclusion first: $CC peaked at 0.1051 in the last 24 hours, currently at 0.0958. The day with the loudest institutional narrative, yet the coin price is green.
On October 29, Nasdaq-listed Canton Strategic Holdings (CNTN) announced a partnership with TSV to start tokenizing and trading its own stock on the Canton network from November 2, with on-chain transfer agent Fairmint issuing the tokens. On the same day, the Canton Foundation granted RedStone 15.8 million CC (about $1.55 million) as an open-source pricing standard.
Three wallet numbers:
First, on-chain scale. According to DefiLlama, Canton chain TVL is only $13.24 million, while $CC market cap is $3.83 billion.
Second, this batch of 15.8 million CC gifted is less than one-third of the daily perpetual $CC trading volume on OKX (5.45 million).
Third, leverage hasn’t caught up. Perpetual 24h volume is 5.45 million, spot 3.24 million, ratio 1.7x; open interest only $2.71 million; funding rate -0.000009%.
The news triggered a 1H spike to 0.1051, then dumped back to 0.0947 at 4 AM.
The narrative is for institutions, $CC is for retail buyers. Which do you believe? I even suspect that Binance is orchestrating this whole thing! $BTC $BNB
Here's the script scenario:
- Dump down to 71-73k to complete accumulation
- Election benefits realized, price rebounds back near 80k
- After the election settles, another dump occurs, completing the transfer of chips from retail investors to exchanges/institutions.
The market may not follow this script exactly, but this possibility cannot be completely ruled out. Ethereum $ETH: The weakest among the mainstreams, be cautious of further declines
ETH fell below 2,300, dropping over 5% in 24 hours, with a nearly 13% decline in the past 30 days, marking the weakest October performance since 2018.
Core logic: Besides the overall market drag, ETH faces two internal issues: whales are continuously selling (reducing about 160,000 ETH within a few days), and exchange balances are simultaneously increasing, indicating more sellable chips. Meanwhile, the testnet "Glamsterdam" upgrade has been delayed, removing a short-term catalyst from the market. Analysts' downside targets point to around $2,000.
Key levels: 2,385 has shifted from support to resistance; failing to reclaim it makes stabilization difficult; below, watch 2,200 first, with an extreme case at 2,000.
Today's decline is primarily driven by liquidity panic triggered by the Binance hack, not by any fundamental issues with a specific coin. But in a panic market, "cheap" is not a reason to buy; "stop-fall signals" are. The long positions in your screenshot generally have costs above the current price. The immediate priority is to control position size and leverage, then wait for $BTC to hold 76,500 and for a clear reduction in market liquidations before judging whether it is a rebound recovery or a weakening trend.
The above is a market review and logical analysis, not investment advice. Contract trading carries very high risk; please control your position size carefully.
$SOL #加密行业协同守护资产安全