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After the 75,690 spike: Don’t rush to celebrate "catching the bottom," first see clearly who is paying for you
In the early hours of November 4 Beijing time, Bitcoin dipped to a low of 75,690.2 USD, then violently rebounded to 79,073 USD. Over 90,000 people were liquidated within 24 hours, totaling 419 million USD. This article does not repeat the trade reports but breaks down this spike into three layers: market facts, narrative traps, and real drivers. Combining the follow-up of Binance’s 6.34 billion USD theft case, the Fed’s hawkish interest rate path, continuous ETF outflows, and derivatives leverage structure, it provides key levels, validation signals, and executable risk control frameworks for the current market.
Additionally, such assets are not legally protected; in cases of theft, exit scams, or platform incidents, there are almost no remedies—Binance’s ability to cover 98% with its own funds this time is an extremely rare event, not the industry norm. This statement does not become invalid because of a correct market call, nor does it become unimportant because "we caught a 2,500-point move."
The 75,690 spike was real, and the rebound was real.
What’s worth remembering is not "we precisely caught the bottom," but that: in a market where over 400 million USD was liquidated in a single day, exchanges just lost 6.3 billion USD, central banks are still tightening, and institutions are still redeeming, those who survive rely not on scripts but on position sizing. #AMD数据中心收入近翻倍，营收及指引均超预期 $BTC $ETH $SOL 2026年11月3日，美国中期选举落下帷幕。 结果出乎不少人的预期：民主党不仅夺回了众议院，还拿下了参议院。共和党失去了国会两院的控制权，特朗普政府在执政两年之后，迎来了一个非常棘手的局面。 这次选举真正值得关注的，不是民主党赢了多少席位，而是特朗普接下来还能在多大程度上推动自己的政策。 要理解这件事，必须先弄清楚美国政治制度中的一个关键问题： 总统掌握行政权，但国会掌握立法、预算、监督以及重要人事任命的制衡权。 两者不再由同一个政党控制，意味着美国未来两年很可能进入一段高度对抗的政治周期。 那么，接下来可能发生什么？ 一、特朗普的政策将面临全面阻力 首先受到影响的，就是特朗普的国内政策。 此前共和党同时控制白宫和国会，特朗普推动减税、财政预算、移民政策以及其他立法议程，相对容易获得党内支持。 现在情况发生了变化。 民主党控制众议院，可以主导委员会、举行听证会、发起调查，并通过传票要求政府部门提供文件和证词。 参议院的变化更加重要。 美国总统提名内阁成员、联邦法官以及其他重要官员，通常需要参议院确认。民主党掌握参议院之后，可以阻止、拖延或者严格审查特朗普的人事提名。 这意味着特朗普未来I am the mid-term intelligence guy
Saw a news article where Yili Hua said $BTC is expected to rise to around $82,600, first hitting resistance before making a directional judgment
A few words on Yili Hua's view. He uses trading data to make his point; BTC did bounce after hitting the 75,700 downtrend line, and the 40-day pullback demand is accounted for. Looking upward, the top channel at 82,600 is a hurdle.
But I have to add: don't just look at technicals. The midterm elections and non-farm payroll data are the real "remote controls"; macro uncertainty hasn't dissipated. Whether the rebound to 82,600 is a strong breakout or another pullback depends on volume and macro coordination.
$ETH is currently just following BTC, don't get ahead of yourself.
$SOL
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 $BTC continues the intraday deep V reversal trend on the hourly chart, rising steadily from the low of 75690 with increasing volume, reaching a high of 79650, currently oscillating around 79480. The price stands firmly above the MA5, MA10, and MA20 moving averages, with short-term moving averages in a bullish alignment and bullish momentum continuing to release, indicating a clear short-term rebound trend. The news catalyst is obvious, with positive news related to Michael Saylor boosting market sentiment and capital inflow driving the price upward. However, it should be noted that this round is a strong recovery after an oversold condition, not a one-sided rise without pullbacks. The area around 79650 is the first short-term resistance zone, and profit-taking pullbacks are likely after the surge. The short-term strategy does not recommend chasing the rise, as the risk-reward ratio for buying at high levels is poor. If the price faces pressure and stalls, light positions can be used to speculate on a pullback; if the pullback does not break the moving average support, consider buying on dips. The market is highly volatile, and contract leverage risks are extremely high, so strictly control position size and set stop losses. The market changes rapidly; the above is only a market review and does not constitute investment advice. Do you think this wave can hold above the 80,000 mark? Let's discuss in the comments.$ETH real breakout? It's happening this time!
Wow, what did I say? The first bullish MACD crossover above the zero line with strong volume, breaking through the recent resistance at EMA50. Currently, the pattern looks quite bullish. If this strong momentum continues, 2350 feels easily achievable.
The recent pullback of BTC and ETH has completed, and the 4-hour MACD has returned to zero. Let's see how this wave of bulls performs!
However, the end of the election is still a bit risky, so everyone should be cautious! #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权
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Further updates on operations will follow. Thanks for watching.Tonight, the US stock market is reshuffling internally again, but the direction is very honest: Apple is up four and a half points, Amazon up six points, and Microsoft is also pushing higher; but looking at the chip sector, Micron is down over four points, ASML down three points, even Nvidia has turned green.
Both carry the "AI" label, but the money is being selective. The ones always left behind are the most expensive, the most financing-hungry, and those with the most hyped stories. The memory sector's latest earnings numbers are truly solid, but solid fundamentals can't support stock prices that are held hostage by valuation and financing chains.
The short positions I hold are never bets on AI dying, but on the most crowded segment clearing out first. It's the same at the poker table: you don't have to play every hand, just bet heavily on the hand where others are all-in and your odds are the best.#365 Daily Ranking 25th Place, October Nonfarm Payrolls Linked to December Rate Hike Expectations
October nonfarm payroll data will directly influence December rate hike pricing. Strong data pushes up US Treasury yields, putting pressure on BTC, with ETH following and amplifying volatility, while ZEC's thin liquidity makes it prone to spikes.
When data is weak, BTC has a chance to touch the 80,000 mark, ETH will recover in sync, and ZEC is only suitable for narrative plays, not as a main strategy.
At this stage, I do not heavily bet on direction; this is a data shakeout under a high-interest-rate framework. The 3.16K profit record only represents past interval judgments.
Compare the stop-loss position of ZEC in the account and calculate its volatility exposure relative to BTC.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC $ASTR — Astar
Astar aims to connect developers with a flexible blockchain environment and broader interoperability. I’m interested in its ecosystem strategy and how it attracts real applications. Developer activity and user demand will determine whether its infrastructure gains lasting traction.$WOO — WOO Network
Liquidity and execution quality are central to competitive crypto markets. WOO Network focuses on trading infrastructure and liquidity services. I’m watching whether its products can maintain strong participation as centralized and decentralized trading platforms continue evolving.In the Hyperliquid ecosystem, a market called HIP-3 has just reached an open interest of 4.65 billion USD, a new all-time high. The previous record was set on August 16, and it took this long to be broken.
First, let's explain what this number means. Open interest is not trading volume; volume can be churned by passing assets back and forth, but open interest represents actual positions still open on the market. 4.65 billion USD means that this amount of money is currently staked in this market, waiting to be closed, take profit, or be liquidated.
Next, consider the timing. The record set on August 16 held until recently before being surpassed, indicating this was not a straightforward upward trend. There were pullbacks and sideways movements; positions were cleared out once and then rebuilt. This kind of gradual new high is more solid than one driven by a single big bullish candle because the participants have rotated, and costs are distributed.
But we must also see the other side. The thicker the positions, the harsher the liquidation cascade when closing out. With 4.65 billion USD of longs and shorts crowded in the same market, once the price moves decisively in one direction, stop losses and liquidations accelerate on their own—this happens both on the way up and down. This new high is a badge of honor for those already holding positions but a warning for those preparing to enter.
One point worth considering is that the $HYPE ecosystem is moving more and more assets into the futures market, so the position size naturally grows. What really needs attention is not whether this number can be broken again, but whether the spot side keeps pace when it does.🚨 Is the Bitcoin rebound really stable? Prices are rising, but the real buying volume in the market may not have caught up yet!
Bitcoin is currently operating near the resistance zone of $78,500–$79,500. Although the rebound strength has exceeded previous expectations, the driving force behind this rally is worth being cautious about.
📉 ETF fund flows: On November 4, Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of about $95 million, indicating a temporary lack of strong buying interest from institutional funds.
📊 Futures market signals: During Bitcoin's decline, open interest in futures contracts actually increased by 12.1% to 694,728 BTC, and the annualized funding rate once rose to 17%. This means leveraged trading activity is heating up.
⚠️ Key issue: The current rebound relies more on passive buying and derivatives funding, while genuine active demand from the spot market is still insufficient.
My view is: Don't rush to be bullish just because of a few green candles. A truly healthy rebound requires continuous spot market capital inflow, not just leverage pushing prices up.
Remember: A price rebound does not equal a trend reversal; what truly determines how far the market can go is the quality of the capital!
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#Bitcoin #CryptoMarket #BTCAnalysis #ETFFlows #CryptoTrading
#DailyOrbit The ETF outflows in the last week of October have made me a bit uneasy. The numbers are there, but the excitement belongs to others. Are institutions really pulling back, or just taking a breather? Watching the market, on October 30 alone, BTC spot ETFs had a net outflow of $643 million; last week, BTC overall lost $203 million, and ETH fared worse, losing $432 million. For the entire October, BTC had a monthly net outflow of $515 million, the first negative turn since June. The only bright spot was FBTC, which bucked the trend by attracting $6.7 million, tiny like a candy in the dark🍬. My own approach is simple: if capital flows don’t reverse and BTC doesn’t reclaim 80181, I won’t chase. The real trading happening now is actually the hidden cross-market linkage. When US dollar interest rate expectations tighten, risk appetite contracts first, and crypto, as a high-beta asset, is the first to be reduced; ETF outflows are not isolated events—they are three facets of the same issue along with the tech sector’s weakness in US stocks and the slowdown in stablecoin growth. On the surface, BTC is falling, but deeper down, marginal buying is retreating, and altcoins’ trading volumes shrank earlier and more quietly. Many only focus on BTC’s candlesticks, ignoring that the depth of smaller coins has already thinned💫. The bullish scenario also holds: the net inflow in FBTC shows not all institutions are withdrawing simultaneously. Once macro pressure eases and ETFs turn positive, suppressed risk appetite will quickly rebound, and ETH’s oversold condition may bring elasticity. But the risk not fully priced in is—if this is just a pause, not the end, subsequent redemptions will be transmitted through market makers toEvening reminder $SNDK operation strategy: (Buy on dip)
Stabilize and go long in the 1055-1085 range, stop loss below 1040, target around 1150
The actual market stopped falling and stabilized near 1060, then rose to around 1122. Total rise over 60+
Those chasing highs are always looking for reasons, those who follow discipline are always waiting for signals.
$SNDK #AMD数据中心收入近翻倍，营收及指引均超预期 #CircleQ3营收超预期，USDC链上交易量增长49%
Circle's earnings report is tonight, Bitcoin is rebounding, US stocks are rebounding, and Circle has all the favorable conditions; there's no reason for it not to rise $BTC's momentum is quite strong, aiming to hit 80k?!
Currently at 79k, if it can hold steady, then things look good; if not,
it's just a normal market correction after a recovery, nothing special to see.
Check the market again in a couple of days; it's an uptrend with increased volume.
This means it can still drop, but it depends on the strength of the recovery.
US stocks are falling, gold and other precious metals are starting to rally, worth noting.
The downward trend of $BTC hasn't completely stopped and may fluctuate repeatedly.
#美国10月非农前瞻：就业增长或牵动12月加息预期 Still coming #CircleQ3营收超预期，USDC链上交易量增长49% Today's close, the biggest feeling is not the lack of opportunity, but that risks keep coming one after another.
BTC is up 2.5% today, at 79,308. ETH +4.0%, rebounding but volume is questionable.
Strong $ZEC +10.8%, weak $HYPE -0.6%, serious divergence, don't chase the highs.
The real suppression is macro: high interest rates, sticky inflation, and repeated expectations of rate cuts. Price volatility is superficial; confidence and liquidity are hit even harder.
Next to watch closely:
· Nonfarm payroll data (first Friday of each month)
· CPI inflation data (mid-month)
· Fed meeting minutes (three weeks after the meeting)
· PCE price index (end of each month)
· ETF fund flows (every evening)
My advice: reduce leverage, diversify positions, don't put all your chips on one direction. Let's discuss in the comments which event you are most focused on next week #cryptoEveryone is paying 76c for $SONY Yes. 75% chance to beat.
I'm not buying it.
PS5 hardware -36%. Sensors +125% last Q, but Sony itself expects H2 drop.
Kumamoto earthquake hit in July - impact STILL not in forecast.
And Zacks ESP is 0.00%. No beat predicted.
Yen helped last Q. Now it's reversing.
Beat is not guaranteed. No at 25c has value.
You taking Yes or No?
$SONY
#SonyQ2GamingAndMusic Just about to organize the evening trading ideas, the market suddenly surged quickly with a big bullish candle. BTC followed the momentum to rise near 79,400, and ETH simultaneously pushed above 2,350.
The overall major trend still favors going long, but after the short-term rally, a pullback for correction is needed. Wait for the pullback to confirm support before continuing to look upward. The long-term target remains around the 80,000 mark.
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权
Evening trading suggestions: $BTC wait for a pullback to the 79,000-79,300 range to go long, with a stop loss at 78,200, target 79,800-80,300; $ETH buy on pullback near 2,350-2,360, stop loss at 2,310, target 2,390-2,430Current Market Overview: Exceeding the rebound target zone, but the "fuel" quality is questionable
Dimension Current Status
Current Price 78,500-$79,500 Resistance Range
Intraday Reference Today's Low Around 3,600
ETF Funds (November 4) **Net Outflow Leading at 95 Million
Futures Signal (Key Divergence) During the price decline, open interest in futures actually increased by 12.1% to 694,728 BTC, with funding rates reaching an annualized 17% during the sell-off
Bitfinex Qualitative Assessment The rebound mainly relies on passive absorption and derivatives buying, while active spot demand remains insufficient $BTC $ETH $ZEC #美国10月非农前瞻：就业增长或牵动12月加息预期 BTC current price 79202, moving averages dead cross pressing down, RSI weak, MACD green bars shrinking, rebound momentum indeed weak. Below 78850 there is a large amount of long liquidation piled up, this level is short-term strong support; above 80000 short positions are thin, once it rebounds it can easily spike up.
Overall judgment: first see if 78850 to 79000 can hold, if it holds there will be a rebound repair, if not it will directly go down to 78500 to sweep longs.
Just pushed open a crack in the guardhouse window for ventilation, night breeze comes in, mind clearer.
In operation, do not chase shorts, wait for a pullback. Light long positions can be taken in the 78850 to 79000 range, take profit first looks at 79800 to 80000, stop loss set below 78600, if broken then exit without holding. Shorts only considered near 80000 when stagnation occurs, take profit at 79300, stop loss at 80300. Binance resumed withdrawals, total market cap rose 1.02% to 2.83 trillion, sentiment is short-term warm, but don't mistake the rebound for a reversal, control your position.
$BTC
#CircleQ3营收超预期，USDC链上交易量增长49%
@OKX星球 Bitcoin's Pullbacks Are Getting Smaller — Can the Market Maintain Its Upward Momentum? The market continues to offer opportunities for long-position traders, and the latest price movement is worth paying attention to. Bitcoin has managed to maintain its upward momentum, with the latest pullback reaching only around 13 points. Compared with previous market movements, this relatively small correction could indicate that short-term selling pressure is becoming less aggressive. Another interesting d$ZEC's recent independent strength is very distinctive. Against the backdrop of an overall weak market, the short-term peak rally reached nearly 17.8%, and the short positions entered at previous highs have been fully pressured.
This round of gains is not simply a passive rebound following BTC and the overall market sentiment; the core driver is its own narrative: NU7 network upgrade, expectations in the quantum-resistant privacy sector, combined with capital games following the midterm election results.
The Democratic Party winning both houses in the midterm elections is a double-edged sword for crypto:
Short-term bearish expectations have been realized in advance, with the US dollar and US Treasury yields weakening, providing a brief respite for risk assets; however, in the medium to long term, the market will reprice the possibility of tighter crypto regulations, and the privacy coin sector itself is a regulatory focus, which will be the biggest implicit suppression going forward.🚨 At 10:55 PM, the market surged dramatically! The shorts were completely bloodied!
📊 Looking at the latest liquidation data, it's extremely brutal. BTC current price 79,053, within 1 hour short liquidations reached 45.35 million, long liquidations only 3.02 million! In 24 hours, shorts were liquidated by 120 million. ETH is even worse, 1 hour short liquidations at 43.99 million, 24 hours crazily liquidated 76.78 million. SOL also saw 5.97 million short liquidations in 1 hour.
💥 Looking at the liquidation map, the short pain points above BTC, ETH, and SOL were completely pierced, data even dropped to zero! This sharp rally is purely a precise hunt by the main force, a chain short squeeze triggering a massive stampede.
🎯 Practical strategy:
🔸 BTC: Current price 79,053, since it strongly stands above 79,000, if the pullback does not break 78,500, light long positions can be taken, target directly at the 80,000 mark.
🔸 ETH: Current price 2,343, very strong trend, can buy near 2,320 on pullback, target 2,380 above.
🔸 SOL: Current price 94.33, performance is weak, rebound near 95 may face resistance, can try shorting at highs.
⚔️ Summary: Shorts are being ground down, do not blindly chase shorts! Did you avoid this wave of liquidations tonight? Are you holding longs or shorts? Report your position in the comments, I'll help you assess the risk! #美伊谈判未突破，油价为何单日跌逾7%？ QQQ's Counterattack or a Bull Trap? The Nasdaq 100 Just Entered a Correction Zone, Yet Today It Signals a Reversal! $QQQ
Just as the market confirmed entering a technical correction, buying suddenly returned.
This could be one of the most notable reversals in the U.S. stock market in early November 2026.
Over the past few trading days, the Nasdaq 100 index has been under continuous pressure, AI tech stocks faced sell-offs, and investors began to question whether the massive AI capital expenditures could deliver sufficient returns.
But on November 3, the U.S. stock market saw new changes.
Chip stocks regained strength, with large tech companies like NVIDIA, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon rebounding. Meanwhile, the U.S. midterm election results further altered market expectations for the future policy environment.
Entering November 4, market sentiment shifted again.
The question arises: Is this the start of a new tech stock rally, or just a brief pause in a downtrend?
Today, we break down the market logic behind QQQ again.
1. The Most Important Signal: QQQ Has Entered a Correction Zone
First, let's look at the market background.
The Nasdaq 100 index hit a historic closing high of 31,224.47 points on October 6, then steadily declined.
As of November 2, the index closed at 27,989.82 points, down more than 10% from the all-time high.
This means the Nasdaq 100 has officially entered a technical correction zone.
This is not just a one- or two-day pullback but a market reassessment of tech stock valuations, earnings expectations, and capital allocation.
Previously, the rapid development of the AI industry drove tech stocks higher.
However, as more companies invest huge sums in building AI infrastructure, investors began to focus on one question:
How much actual profit can these investments generate?
Capital markets never reward growth expectations alone; they care about whether growth can be realized.
This is a key reason tech stocks have been under pressure recently.
However, entering a correction zone does not mean the long-term bull market is necessarily over. What truly matters is whether the index can regain sustained buying support.
2. November 3 Rebound: Chip Stocks Become Market Leaders Again
On November 3, the U.S. tech sector saw some recovery.
Key index performances were as follows:
Index November 3 Closing Performance
Nasdaq Composite +0.83%
S&P 500 +0.36%
Dow Jones -0.38%
Nasdaq 100 +0.68%
Among them, the semiconductor sector's performance was especially notable.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose about 3%.
NVIDIA rose about 2.3%, Microsoft about 2.7%, Meta about 2.4%, Amazon about 2.1%.
But Apple fell about 1.9%.
What does this indicate?
Capital did not simply return broadly to tech stocks but rather reallocated within the tech sector.
Market focus on AI chips, data centers, and cloud computing remains strong, but demands for corporate profit margins, costs, and future investment returns are also rising.
The tech stock story is not over, but the market is no longer willing to unconditionally buy all tech companies.
3. Today's Biggest Variable: U.S. Midterm Elections Change Market Expectations
On November 4, the market faced a major macro event.
The U.S. midterm election results showed the Democratic Party gained control of both chambers of Congress.
This outcome quickly influenced investors' judgments about the future policy environment.
On Wednesday, U.S. stock index futures strengthened significantly, with Nasdaq 100 futures rising about 0.93%, and large tech stocks gaining support.
Subsequently, U.S. stocks continued to rise in early trading, with the Nasdaq index rising about 1.7% at one point.
Why do election results affect QQQ?
Because the development of tech giants depends not only on the companies themselves but also on the policy environment.
Especially the AI industry.
Data center construction, power supply, chip exports, tech regulation, and large enterprise competition policies could all impact future capital investment in the tech industry.
Democratic control of Congress may mean new policy discussions on tech regulation and data center expansion reviews.
But it is important to note that a change in congressional control does not mean all policies will change immediately. There remains uncertainty about how policies will ultimately be implemented.
Therefore, today's rise more reflects the market's repricing of policy uncertainty rather than the complete disappearance of tech industry risks.
4. QQQ's Biggest Bullish Logic: The AI Industry Still Has Growth Potential
If we look for the core support for QQQ's long-term development, AI remains an unavoidable theme.
From an industry chain perspective:
First layer: Chips and computing power.
Companies like NVIDIA and AMD benefit from AI computing demand.
With growing needs for large model training and inference, advanced chips remain a crucial foundation for industry development.
Second layer: Cloud computing and data centers.
Companies like Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet continue to expand cloud computing and AI infrastructure.
AI commercialization requires not only chips but also massive computing resources and data centers.
Third layer: Applications and commercialization.
Meta, Alphabet, and other software and internet companies are trying to integrate AI into advertising, search, office work, and content ecosystems.
This means AI is not a growth story for a single company but an industry chain involving multiple sectors.
But it must be emphasized:
Industry growth does not necessarily mean stock prices will rise.
When the market has already priced in substantial future growth expectations, even good corporate performance may not lead to stock price increases and could even cause declines.
This is the core contradiction QQQ currently faces.#ETH#SOL continue their upward trend, with capital and on-chain demand resonating. The next wave opens a short position above 97 with a stop loss, take profit around 100 at 92 or break through 91, and 88 can be seen.$HYPE has held an 8-day short position on HYPE, here’s my plan for adding to the position
I’ve been watching it since the peak at 98, shorted at 92 with 50U, now holding at 86.
【Why I dare to hold】
1️⃣ From 98 to 75 dropped 23%, the rebound to 96.87 didn’t even touch the previous high, showing weakness on the right side
2️⃣ Futures positions are 78% long, so many people crowded on one side, which fuels the downside
3️⃣ On November 6th, 180,000 tokens will be distributed, adding selling pressure overhead
【My plan】
I’ve moved the stop loss on the old position down to 91 to lock in profits; this trade can no longer lose.
When the price rebounds to the 89-90 resistance zone, I’m ready to add to the position—but the stop loss is tricky: setting it at 91 is too tight and could be triggered by a wick; setting it above the previous high at 96.87 makes the risk/reward ratio unfavorable. Currently leaning towards waiting for a 4-hour candle with a long upper shadow to confirm stagnation before acting, with added position not exceeding the base position.
The medium to long-term first target is 75-76, the low on October 25 plus the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern. If it really breaks down, the next target is 62.
【One honest truth】
86 is actually the middle of the range, so both bulls and bears are possible. I dare to share my plan because the stop loss is fixed—the loss amount was set before opening the position, that’s the essence of discipline.
What do you think about the stop loss at 91, is it too tight or just right? $HUMA Bearish: Dropped 21% in one day to $0.0173, with 478 million tokens pending unlock by the end of the month
Current price of HUMA is $0.01727, down 21.3% in 24 hours, intraday low at $0.01721, basically closing at the daily low, with a trading volume of about $3.37 million
Breaking it down, it was around $0.0295 at the close on November 1, dropping about 41% in three days, while BTC rose 2.5% in the same period, indicating this decline is largely unrelated to the overall market
The biggest pressure is on supply. According to Tokenomics data, 478.6 million tokens will unlock on November 26, accounting for 4.8% of the total supply, with 33 more unlocks afterward, totaling about 70.9% of the total supply
In the past 7 unlocks, the maximum drawdown within two weeks averaged about 16%
The circulating market cap is only about 17% of the fully diluted valuation. Without new demand news to offset, each unlock will continue to dilute holders.Tonight at 22:30, $BTC used a 15-minute K-line with 807 lots to break the double top at 78,718.
Now at 79,484, it is stuck at the gate where the daily EMA21/55 and Fibonacci 61.8% converge.
Has the bull market started?
Let's first look at 5 hard conditions; currently, only 1.5 are met. First, some cold water:
Distance from the all-time high 126,200 — -37%
Year-over-year — -24%
Year-to-date — -12.6%
Fear & Greed Index — 34 (Fear)
The bull market will not be declared at this position. This looks more like May 2019 or January 2023: the first wave of recovery after a bear market. Condition ① Price structure: 4H has turned bullish (above EMA55 78,472), but the daily is still below EMA21/55 79,819 and MA20 80,213.
The weekly is above the 50-week line 75,629 for the 7th week.
Score 0.5/1. Condition ② Capital structure: ETF outflows on 10/30 -643 million, 11/02 -399 million, 11/03 -21 million.
Outflows are decaying but have not turned positive. USDC circulation is flat year-over-year.
Score 0/1 — this is the most critical and most lacking condition. Condition ③ Leverage: Funding rate +0.01%, positive for 10 consecutive times, never negative.
Tonight$BTC $ETH tonight's market! btc tech stocks rise
1. US midterm election results finalized
Democrats win control of the Senate and House.
The market begins to reassess US fiscal policy for the next two years:
The Trump administration faces increased difficulty in further expanding fiscal spending.
Large-scale tax cuts may be restricted.
Concerns about further expansion of the US fiscal deficit have eased.
This drives funds to buy US Treasuries, lowering Treasury yields.
2. US Treasury yields fall, dollar weakens
This is the macro transmission chain I think you should pay most attention to.
US political uncertainty repriced
Funds buy US Treasuries
Treasury yields fall, dollar weakens
Nasdaq rises
Valuation pressure eases
BTC rises
Dollar pressure eases
3. Market shows low-level buying
BTC previously fell due to concerns that Democrats might strengthen crypto industry regulation, once dropping below $76,000.
But as election results become clearer, investors start buying back previous losses, and BTC retakes $79,000.
Note, do not interpret this rebound directly as the start of a new bull market. After the leverage retreat: The second round of the crypto market game is just beginning
Bitcoin dipped to a low of $75,690, Ethereum touched $2,225, both breaking previous lows simultaneously. However, more intriguing than the price is the position divergence: BTC perpetual contract open interest dropped about 2.1% in 24 hours, ETH declined about 6.2% over the past 7 days, and total market open interest fell in sync — old leverage is still exiting.
On the other hand, OKX coin-margined positions quietly rebounded from lows, with BTC increasing about 0.4% and ETH about 0.8%. While some are retreating, others are betting; the market is not simply "clearing out after a drop" but is repositioning. Whether the new positions are bottom-fishing longs or trend-following shorts is still unclear.
More caution is needed regarding funding rates: BTC remains near +0.01%, ETH has cooled but is still significantly above the 7-day average. Prices have broken down and total open interest has contracted, yet the remaining longs hold high-cost positions — this structure is unstable.
Looking ahead, focus on two points: whether BTC can hold $75,690 and whether ETH can reclaim $2,236. If prices continue to fall while total market open interest shifts from decreasing to increasing, it will indicate that new directional funds have officially taken over. For now, it looks like the first round of clearing has ended, and the second round of the game has just begun.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权
#美国10月非农前瞻：就业增长或牵动12月加息预期
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 Waking up, as expected, Brother Chuan lost both chambers consecutively. Let's not talk about the dust settling or anything else yet; this is actually a good thing. The market no longer needs to be tangled in big ZC direction fluctuations. The person who least wants to see this situation is actually Musk; others are more or less fine. As I predicted when discussing the results of the two chambers, in fact, my article a few days ago only focused on analyzing the outcome of the Democrats winning both chambers. So here, let's restate and reorganize the biggest risk, which still lies in data center construction. Especially this time, the Democrats not only took both chambers but also won the gubernatorial elections in the two most important states here: Texas and Georgia. Those who often watch my videos know that these two states have been very frequent players in past data center construction. In fact, AI data center investments and projects in these two states account for about one-third of related projects in the U.S. According to the Democrats' nature, they will implement stricter restrictions on data center construction in the future, which will affect the entire AI supply chain construction process. Of course, the Americans often change their banners; if these restrictions are not continuous, they only defer the income of related companies somewhat. Under Democratic control of both chambers, as mentioned in the previous article, they can't just do whatever they want; after all, the president is still Brother Chuan, and the Democrats find it difficult to bypass the president's veto power to unilaterally push major new legislation. Conversely, if Brother Chuan wants to continue pushing his new fiscal stimulus, tax incentives will also be constrained by Congress. Here Last night, a fan asked me in the comments: "What if the Democrats win?" I said: short first, then long.
Today, $BTC's price movement just formed a "deep V," and I guess many people got liquidated again.
The drop happened from 7:30 to 11:00, hitting a low of 75,738; then from 11:15 it started to rebound, and now it's back up to 78,400.
This round of decline basically coincided with the announcement of the US midterm election results. The Democrats took both chambers, and the market worried that US crypto regulations would tighten again and the CLARITY Act would be harder to advance, so there was an initial sell-off.
✅ But once the results became completely clear, the market started trading on a different logic: Democratic control of Congress does not mean control over everything.
Trump still holds executive power and veto rights, and the US has entered a state of "checks and balances between the White House and Congress." Crypto-friendly bills are harder to pass, but aggressive anti-crypto policies are also difficult to implement.
When the worst expectations are priced in and election uncertainty disappears, combined with BTC being oversold earlier, bottom-fishing funds and short covering together pulled the price back up.
The "short first, then long" prediction I made last night was exactly how the market actually played out.Can't rise nor fall, both sides hurt?
$BTC: Grinding sideways at a high level
$78,355, up 1.14% in 24h, high $78,726, long-short ratio 1.74 (1.93 4h ago), open interest $2.775 billion. In the past 4h, liquidations: longs $476K, shorts $866K. After hitting $78,726 at 19:00, it pulled back; the 20:00 low of $78,006 held, stuck around $78,300 in the evening.
$ETH: Pulled back after a rally, grinding
$2,318, up 1.24% in 24h, high $2,339, long-short ratio 1.60 (1.72 4h ago), open interest $1.55 billion. In the past 4h, liquidations: longs $766K, shorts $550K. At 19:00, $2,339 failed to hold, grinding around $2,310 in the evening, with gains narrowing compared to the afternoon.
$SOL: The only one of the three coins to close down
$92.93, down 0.50% in 24h, high $94.17, long-short ratio 3.20 (3.21 4h ago), open interest $341 million. In the past 4h, liquidations: longs $245K, shorts $68K. At 19:00, $94.17 failed to hold, sliding back to around $93 in the evening, the only one of the three coins to close down.
Summary: 2.971 million in liquidations in the past 4 hours, longs 1.487 million, shorts 1.484 million, split almost evenly.
No clear direction yet, chasing on either side risks getting cut.
For market record only, not investment advice
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 The posted profits are unrealized gains, not money in hand.
Someone posted account numbers, going from zero to one million.
The screenshot only shows the balance, no positions.
What does this number mean: unrealized gains on the books; if the coins aren't sold, it doesn't count as realized.
$SNDK goes up when it goes up, and falls when it falls.
What did he actually do: most likely heavily bet on one direction and guessed right.
Position size and leverage multiplier are not shown in the screenshot.
From one million to two million, doubling is enough.
A pullback of half from one million happens at the same speed.
The moment it’s posted is usually the best moment to post it.
#BTC现货ETF资金流出，企业财库增持放缓
#$SNDK $xTSLA/USDT update: Trading at $xTSLA 383.66, down -3.23% today. 24h range: $xTSLA 374.32 - $xTSLA 403.58 with 3.96K volume ($1.53M turnover). Moving averages show MA5 at 396.90 and MA10 at 398.68.
#DemocratsWinCongress $BTC LONG 🔥🎯
entry: 77,900 to 77,000
tp1: 80,700
tp2: 82,360
tp3: 87,400
stop: 75,500
BTC bounced off the 99-day average near 77,000 and buyers look like they're stepping in. If the dip holds, I'd expect a move toward 80,700 first, then 82,360. A close below 75,500 and the idea is wrong.
Not chasing here. Patience for the entry, keep size small and always use your stop.
#DemocratsWinCongress
#BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto#CircleQ3USDCVolumeUp49%
A 49% increase in Circle’s USDC volume is an important development for the stablecoin market. Rising activity highlights growing interest in reliable digital dollar transactions. Circle continues to benefit from the expanding adoption of blockchain-based payments and financial services. The average withdrawal price is about $83.5, the current price is about $85, and if this batch is realized in the past five days, it could yield about $1.08 million more.
Ai Auntie monitoring: The largest external entity of HYPE, an a16z-related address, has again deposited 32,862 HYPE tokens into the exchange; in the past five days, a total of about $15.02 million worth of HYPE has been transferred to the exchange. Since July 15, this entity has withdrawn about 3.75 million tokens from major exchanges and market makers combined (only counting withdrawals, not including re-deposits), with an average withdrawal price of about $83.5; at the time of writing, HYPE≈85.07, if this batch of deposits is sold in the past five days, it is estimated to earn about $1.08 million more.
In my opinion, what really needs to be watched is the "average withdrawal price vs. re-deposit rhythm" — whether it looks more like locking in profits or just inter-exchange portfolio adjustment depends on whether this batch of coins will be further dispersed.
Which side do you lean towards: does this batch in the past five days look more like profit-taking from selling, or inter-exchange portfolio adjustment?
If a16z-related holdings move again, I will continue to analyze, so hit follow.
$HYPE BTC / ETH｜Brothers who followed the rhythm in today's wave caught it!
This morning, I gave the range idea in advance: go long near BTC 76000, go long near ETH 2230.
So far, BTC has risen about 3000 points at its highest, and ETH has also gained about 120 points. I repeatedly reminded that before the market truly weakens, don't rush to short; at least wait to observe opportunities near BTC 79000 and ETH 2350.
Now both coins have broken above the original consolidation range, so the previous high-sell low-buy strategy needs to be readjusted.
The most important thing in trading is not guessing daily ups and downs, but planning ahead and executing properly, then timely adjusting after market changes. Dare to go long when it's time, be patient and wait when needed. $BTC $ETH $SOL #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 $POL (Polygon Ecosystem Token)
POL IS SHOWING RELATIVE STRENGTH TODAY!
$POL appeared among November 4's leading large-cap gainers, posting an approximately 8.3% daily increase in the available market snapshot. Such moves deserve attention, but a single session cannot establish a lasting trend. Volume confirmation and subsequent price stability remain important.
#Polygon #POL #Ethereum #CryptoAnalysis #OKXOrbit*🚀 SCHRODERS BRINGS TRADITIONAL BONDS TO SOLANA*
🏦 The global asset manager Schroders, with $1.1 trillion in assets under management, tokenizes an emerging markets bond strategy on the Solana blockchain.
🔗 The initiative, developed together with Centrifuge, represents a new step forward in integrating traditional finance with blockchain technology.
#Solana #SOL #RWA #Tokenización Top market cap does not equal most active trading; these rankings should be read separately
According to Token Terminal's criteria, the combined stock tokens of three platforms total about $1.7 billion, with Binance bStocks accounting for the majority at about $1.4 billion, Robinhood at $175.7 million, and Coinbase at $38.4 million
The turnover ranking is a different list. Bitquery statistics show that in October, six issuers had on-chain turnover of $10.3 billion, with Robinhood at $2.61 billion and Coinbase at $2.49 billion
The key lies in the criteria: buying once and selling once counts as two transactions. Trades within apps and centralized exchanges are not counted at all. Robinhood's lead also includes many robot-driven back-and-forth trades; counting each round trip as one transaction reduces the lead to about $11 million
Market cap reflects stock; turnover reflects flow. Comparing turnover to market cap is like comparing foot traffic to shelf value
#bStocks #Tokenization #Binance #Robinhood #Coinbase#AMD数据中心收入近翻倍，营收及指引均超预期 AMD's data center revenue nearly doubled this quarter, with both revenue and earnings guidance exceeding market expectations. The data center business has become its core pillar. Growth mainly comes from the fifth-generation EPYC server CPUs and MI450 AI accelerator cards ramping up. The Agent intelligent system drives CPU computing power demand, helping AMD form a CPU+AI card combined solution to capture market share in computing power. Relying on TSMC's foundry, it has strong production flexibility, and cloud vendors' procurement demand is robust. However, risks are also prominent: growth is constrained by TSMC and HBM production capacity, NVIDIA's ecosystem barriers are strong, competition from Intel and cloud vendors' self-developed chips is intensifying; meanwhile, the company's revenue heavily depends on the AI computing power track, PC business is weak, and valuation already reflects optimistic expectations in advance. Continued performance exceeding expectations will be needed to maintain high growth.#Marvell plans stock swap acquisition of Lumentum, intensifying AI optical communication layout
The leader has something to say
Marvell plans a stock swap acquisition of Lumentum, intensifying AI optical communication layout—The AI race has shifted from "buying chips" to "buying capacity and bottlenecks," which is an emotional spillover for the crypto circle, not an independent main theme.
On November 2, it was officially announced as an all-stock acquisition, with each LITE share exchanged for 4.5 MRVL shares, implying an enterprise value of about $115 billion and approximately $1132 per share, a premium of about 23.9% over rumors, expected to complete in the first half of 2028; MRVL shareholders will hold about 67%. On the same day, LITE disclosed FY27 Q1 revenue of $1.263 billion, up 136.5% year-over-year, slightly exceeding expectations. The all-stock deal does not consume cash, combining DSP and laser transceivers, betting on AI data center interconnect bottlenecks.
Two transmissions to the crypto circle: The AI prosperity narrative supports risk appetite, and tokenized US stocks like LITE and xLITE enrich the RWA shelf; however, token and underlying stock rhythms are not synchronized, and short-term price differences come from secondary liquidity, so do not treat it as an on-chain fundamental signal.
Back to BTC: current price about 78,500, resistance at 78,960 above, support at 75,795 below, intraday rebound of about 3.6% still considered oversold recovery. Optical communication mergers and acquisitions do not change BTC macro pricing—the spot ETF has not turned positive, the fear index of $ETH and $ZEC is only 26, AI benefits first favor the US stock narrative, and capital inflow back to BTC still requires ETF net flow to turn positive.
$BTJust a quick update
After seeing Binance hacked last Saturday, the market didn't continue to break down, so I closed all short positions. The plan was to close positions first to sort things out and pave the way for the upcoming rebound across various markets. I had been mostly short, but now to take the opposite direction, I need to switch my mindset.
Starting with crypto, I subjectively think it's currently in a position that's neither up nor down.
- On one hand, I don't dare to keep being bearish. I've been making money shorting for the past year, but I don't believe I can keep profiting from a single strategy. Although shorts have still been profitable in recent weeks, the holding experience has been terrible, feeling like walking a tightrope every day.
- On the other hand, I'm not bullish either. US interest rates are high, and no new funds are coming in. Many are hoping for a breakthrough and pullback in 2023, but it seems the current capital preference is different. Just look at Robinhood's last quarter earnings report to see how cold crypto is, and there's no sign of improvement for now.
- So, I remain on the sidelines in crypto, but of course, if a huge bullish candle appears, I will change my view immediately.
Regarding US stocks, I haven't made any moves either. Semiconductors haven't found a bottom yet. I'm waiting for a new volume-supported low in QQQ and memory stocks; if it doesn't come, I'd rather give up on this rebound. For bottom-fishing AI, there are two approaches: one is to find those with big drops, the other is to find those with good recent earnings. I haven't decided yet.
For A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, I mentioned last night on X that I bought CQQQ and KSTR. Looking back today, I almost bought at the lowest point and have already made some gains. #AMD Financial Report Outlook: Progress in Commercializing the HeliosAI System AMD数据中心收入近乎翻倍，苹果营收超预期却毛利率指引承压——同一周两份财报，市场给出完全不同的定价。真正被交易的从来不是已公布的数字，而是“过去”与“未来”之间那道预期裂缝。📊 财报季里最容易被混为一谈的两件事：已实现的经营结果，回望过去，回答公司上一程实际跑得如何，包含营收、净利润、EPS、毛利率这些既成事实；业绩指引，眺望前方，回答管理层预计下一程怎么走，涵盖下一季度或全年的收入、EPS、利润率与CapEx，可以是具体数字、区间，也可以只是趋势判断。前者是账本，后者是承诺。 博弈发生在两者与市场预期的交叉口。四种组合决定叙事方向：结果与指引双双超预期，资金追涨；结果过关但指引失速，涨幅回吐；结果失手却指引亮眼，可能低开高走；双双不及预期，杀估值与杀情绪同步上演。苹果本季正是“结果过关、指引承压”的样本——营收超预期，但下一季毛利率指引迫使市场重新定价未来，$AAPL 的波动不在过去而在前瞻。AMD站在另一侧，数据中心收入近翻倍，营收与指引均超预期，$AMD 拿到的是过去与未来的双重确认。 这里藏着一个常被低估的机制：达标不等于股价不动。市场定价的是实际结果与先前预期之间的落差，Event window landed, BTC shows a deep V rebound on the 15-minute chart, approaching 79,500, with shorts fiercely attacked above 78,000: As the price rapidly surged, a large number of short positions hit the liquidation line, forcing the new risk line to move above 79,000. The price is sprinting, shorts are liquidating, but product-side funds continue to bleed.
$BTC: 79,500. A 24-hour surge of over 2.3% from the low of 75,690. Related products continue to see net outflows, with leading institutional funds still withdrawing, and inflows in a few products being negligible. This rapid rise is mainly driven by short covering and leverage liquidations in the derivatives market; spot active buying has not significantly increased.
$ETH: 2,356. Also showing a strong V-shaped rebound, with a single-day gain of 2.52%. Related products continue to experience outflows. However, exchange reserves remain at historic lows, with some institutions accumulating on dips. Funds are withdrawing on the product side, locking on-chain, and the chip battle is intensifying.
$SOL: 94.84. Reached a high of 95.07, up 1.21%. Related products show signs of net inflows, one of the few directions still receiving funds recently. But on-chain data shows large addresses continue to deposit SOL into exchanges. Supply-side selling pressure remains, testing the resilience of the rebound.
For record-keeping of the market only, not investment advice.
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 $GRT (The Graph)
BLOCKCHAIN DATA INFRASTRUCTURE DESERVES MORE ATTENTION!
$GRT represents an important part of decentralized blockchain infrastructure. The Graph's migration of production query traffic toward its decentralized network strengthens its utility narrative. Traders should monitor actual network usage and demand for indexing services instead of focusing exclusively on short-term price fluctuations.
#TheGraph #GRT #DeFi #Web3 #OKXOrbit