Orbit Post Sitemap
Oracle stock price rebounds, but the market still needs to verify AI investment returns
A screenshot from November 4 shows Oracle-related assets rising about 1.7%, indicating the market still recognizes the growth potential of AI cloud business. However, I would not interpret a single-day increase as the disappearance of financing pressure.
The company expects capital expenditures to peak from FY2027 to FY2028, and hopes to achieve over $30 billion in free cash flow only by FY2029. The investment cycle is long, during which interest rates and bond financing conditions may change.
If cloud business growth exceeds capital costs, expansion is valuable; if customer demand and cash flow realization are slower than planned, the market will reassess valuations.
I will watch whether risk appetite for $BTC and tech stocks improves in sync, but I do not take Oracle's stock price changes as an indicator of the crypto market direction.
#甲骨文AI云业务高速增长，拟融资200亿美元支持扩张 #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 #CircleQ3营收超预期，USDC链上交易量增长49% On November 3, the Ethereum Foundation announced the launch of a dedicated public infrastructure website aimed at governments, international organizations, and NGOs, designed to promote Ethereum's applications in digital identity, public services, and humanitarian aid. The Foundation uses Bhutan's National Digital Identity (NDI) system as an example to demonstrate Ethereum's practical implementation capabilities in national-level digital identity systems. Bhutan NDI: A Model for Sovereign-Level Applications Bhutan's NDI system is built on Ethereum, allowing citizens to autonomously control their identity data and conveniently access public and private services. For the Foundation, this is not only a technical showcase but also a signal that Ethereum is capable of supporting sovereign-level deployments. The website offers case studies, technical documentation, and implementation guides to lower the barrier for institutions exploring blockchain, positioning Ethereum as an open, neutral infrastructure serving the public interest. Why Public Sector Adoption Matters Government adoption is expected to accelerate blockchain's mainstream legitimacy. Digital identity is a key entry point: once a state issues credentials on-chain, it will drive demand for wallets, verifiable credentials, and privacy-preserving tools. Humanitarian aid is another high-impact area, where transparent and traceable fund distribution can reduce fraud and enhance accountability. However, challenges remain. Public sector deployments require strict privacy protections, interoperability with legacy systems, and clear legal frameworks. The Ethereum Foundation's move shows its willingness to confront these complexities rather than cede this space to permissioned chains or competing public chains. Competitive Landscape Ethereum faces competition from other public chains as well as enterprise-level solutions positioned as more compliant and scalable1. First, separate the two issues (very important) Issue 1: The stock price "becoming three digits" is 100% certain — but this is a stock split, not a decline. The company has announced an 8-for-1 forward stock split: Record date 11/9, new shares issued after market close on 11/19, trading at split-adjusted price starting 11/20. Calculated at the current price of 1,036.55, post-split price = approximately $129.6. This is an arithmetic change; market capitalization and shareholding proportion remain unchanged. Issue 2: Will the price really fall below 1,000 before the split? Current price 1,038, only 0.4%-3.5% away. My judgment: probability 60-65%. Last night’s intraday low was 1,032.66, only 3.3% away from the lower boundary of four digits. Today it has already broken below all moving averages and the lower Bollinger Band — this is not a question of "if it will break," but "when it will break." Today -7.86% (1,038.02) one-sided decline Intraday low 1,032.66, a 60-day low Distance from 52-week high -55.9% (2,354.39), already halved YTD still + about 480%, previously rose too much EMA8/21/55 1,221 / 1,351 / 1,473 bearish alignment, price 15-30% lower MA200 1,266 broke below today for the first time, weekly level weakening RSI14 34.0 near oversold, but no bullish divergence MACD DIF -116.6 / histogram -42.It's almost midnight, I just finished showering and was about to shut down my computer and relax, but when I switched back to the market screen, I saw this straight-line surge. Did it bury a lot of short sellers directly? 🤣 This sudden surge is a sneak attack; the market manipulators really have dark hearts!
First, look at $BTC, current price 80240, the highest directly hit 81199! This surge is indeed fierce, but look at the 4-hour long-short ratio, it actually crashed to 1.38! What does this mean? The bulls who stubbornly held at the high levels before are now all taking advantage of this rally to frantically close their positions and run! This is not new money entering the market; it's clearly a short squeeze where the bulls fled first. Chasing the price now is most likely to catch the falling knife.
Next, look at $ETH, current price 2423, surged over 5 points, the long-short ratio is even more ridiculous, directly smashed to 1.19! This is purely a short squeeze market; once the shorts are dead, the buying power instantly dries up. Charging in now is definitely serving the market manipulators a midnight snack.
The funniest is $SOL, current price 96.6, although it also surged, the 4-hour long-short ratio stubbornly holds at a high 3.29! This shows that the stubborn bulls under this asset are still insanely numerous, pulling the price up while crazily baiting more buyers.
In summary, these late-night short squeezes are often just a facade for deleveraging. Don't chase the price at the emotional peak; preserving your principal and sleeping soundly is the safest.
Tonight's midnight rally, were your short positions precisely blasted, or did your long positions successfully feast on the big gains?
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 Gold ETFs saw renewed inflows in Q3, as investors began reallocating to safe-haven assets again
According to data from the World Gold Council, global physically-backed gold ETFs increased their holdings by about 211 tons in Q3, pushing total gold ETF holdings to a record level of approximately 4,256 tons.
This contrasts with the outflows in Q2, indicating a shift in allocation attitudes among institutions and investors. Gold is supported not only by central bank purchases but also influenced by factors such as fiscal sustainability, inflation, and geopolitical risks.
However, ETF inflows and central bank gold purchases represent different types of demand. The former can change rapidly with market sentiment, while the latter more reflects medium- to long-term reserve management choices.
I will be watching whether gold ETFs continue to see net inflows, and whether the US dollar and real yields align accordingly. Gold tokens like $XAUT also require attention to their underlying reserves and trading liquidity, not just the spot gold price.
#全球央行Q3购金321吨，金价为何持续承压？ #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 #CircleQ3营收超预期，USDC链上交易量增长49% The voting for the 2026 U.S. midterm elections ended on November 3 local time. #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 $BTC $ETH $SOL The Democratic Party achieved a major victory, regaining control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate, creating a power balance with the White House controlled by the Republican Party and Congress led by the Democrats. This election involved all House members, some Senators, and 36 state governors. Inflation and living costs were the core factors driving changes in the election. Voter dissatisfaction with high prices caused the Republican Party to lose in several traditional red states, with the Democrats even winning seats in long-time Republican strongholds like Texas and South Carolina, which the media called a "blue wave."
With the Democrats controlling both chambers of Congress, the Trump administration's governance over the next two years will face significant constraints. Its bills, budgets, and personnel nominations will require negotiation with the Democrats, and Congress will strengthen oversight and investigations of the executive branch. The election results reflect ongoing polarization in American society, deepening partisan divisions, and the early start of a new round of political competition, profoundly affecting the direction of U.S. domestic policy and future election strategies.📉 xAMD/USDT Update
* Current Price: $xAMD 482.28 (-6.51%)
* 24h Range: $xAMD 472.22 – $531.02
Short Prediction:
Downward momentum remains strong below moving averages. Holding above $472 support could spark a brief relief bounce toward $500, but a breakdown targets $460 next.
#Crypto #Trading #xAMD Order Book Strength Ranking
5-minute median slippage, estimated by order book
After amplifying orders for CARDS and AKE, both buy and sell slippage increased significantly, with CARDS showing the highest simulated slippage at the 100,000 scale.
$CARDS simulated slippage for 10,000 scale buy/sell is 1.23%/1.25%, and for 100,000 scale is 49.18%/47.48%. Do not linearly extrapolate the slippage at the 10,000 level to the 100,000 level; read the levels according to the actual order volume.
$ARX large buy cost decreased. Simulated buy slippage at 100,000 scale dropped from 2.62% to 1.80%. Depth improved, increasing feasibility for large orders.
$AKE simulated slippage for 10,000 scale buy/sell is 0.34%/0.33%, and for 100,000 scale is 1.48%/1.17%. Depth is not continuous at smaller scales; the 100,000 level is the real execution constraint. $ETH It's almost midnight, I just made a bowl of noodles, staring at the 15-minute ETH chart, I sneered coldly. After 12:00, those saying the bull is back will be crying.
【Hardcore review of this “Midnight Bell”】:
Look at Chart 1, a big bullish candle sharply pulled up to 2451, leaving such a long upper shadow. The 15-minute MACD red bars are almost off the screen, seriously overbought. Then look at Chart 2, the long-short ratio is 1.25, with 55.57% of accounts bullish. This is clearly a trap set by the whales using the guise of “exhausted bad news” to lure retail investors into chasing highs late at night shouting “bull is back.”
【Unique insight: Why will they cry at 1 or 2 AM?】
It’s late at night, European and American markets are watching, liquidity is extremely poor. The manipulator uses a very small amount of money at this time to push the price above the previous high, just to blow up the short positions above and simultaneously lure the bulls in. After 1 or 2 AM, when the retail bulls have fully loaded their positions, the whales flip and smash the market, delivering a “Heaven and Earth Pin,” leaving no chance for the bulls to escape.
【My suggestion】:
Watch with the coldest detachment and observe the worst liquidations. Chasing highs now is purely because you have too many underwear left. I placed a short near 2422 with a stop loss above 2455, betting on the liquidity vacuum and washout in the late night.
Those shouting “bull is back, return quickly” are probably still adding positions now. When the real crash comes late at night, their tears will be tonight’s appetizer for us shorts!Trump loses both chambers, will the crypto market fall first then rise? A comprehensive overview
Key conclusions: Short-term pressure first, mid-term enters a tug-of-war, long-term depends on whether the "regulatory deadlock" can turn into a breathing room. It’s neither a one-sided crash nor a one-sided bull market. Trump was originally crypto-friendly, and the market expected the Republican-controlled Congress to push for relaxed bills; now with the Democrats taking both chambers, the legislative direction turns stricter, but the president’s veto power remains, so both sides will check each other.
Scenario 1: News hits and expectations are killed first (short-term)
The expectation of "accelerated friendly bills" is dashed, funds worry first about stablecoin restrictions and intensified SEC enforcement, $BTC and $ETH may quickly dip. This is mostly emotional trading, volatility will amplify.
Scenario 2: Veto power vs legislative power (1–4 weeks, mainstream scenario)
Democrats can push stricter regulatory bills but can’t gather two-thirds to override veto; Trump wants to push relaxed legislation, but Democratic-controlled chambers won’t cooperate. The result is bills hard to pass, market repeatedly trades on expectations.
Scenario 3: Deadlock turns to breathing room (low probability long-term)
After the two parties deadlock, new legislation is hard to come by, SEC and other agencies’ enforcement may marginally ease, the industry remains in a gray area. After digesting the negative news, if risk capital returns, the market has a chance to recover.
For market review reference only, does not constitute any trading advice.
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权
#BTC现货ETF资金流出，企业财库增持放缓 Tonight, the bears are sleepless.
$ETH was sluggish around $2226 during the day, and no one expected it to suddenly surge at 10 PM.
A poor employment report, a Democratic election victory, and a soft dollar woke up the funds.
What really ignited it were those betting against it:
At 23:04, a $38 million short position at $2429 was forcibly liquidated, and throughout the night, $177 million worth of short positions were successively liquidated. ETH surged straight to $2450, rising more fiercely than BTC and SOL.
Is it exhilarating? Yes. But if you think calmly, this move was driven by emotion and leverage; ETH itself didn’t have any new positive news. ETFs are still seeing continuous outflows, and stolen coins still hang overhead.
The bears were caught off guard tonight; whether it can hold steady by tomorrow morning depends on whether there is real money continuing to buy.
#ETH强势拉升，空头清算超11亿美元 $ZEC From the daily chart perspective, ZEC previously formed a very standard "double bottom" (W bottom) pattern and successfully broke through the neckline resistance, showing very strong short-term momentum.
However, it is important to note that currently, after the price rebounded to the previous dense chip area (i.e., the strong resistance zone above), the upward momentum has clearly weakened, and the candlesticks show obvious signs of stagnation and pullback. This is a typical "oversold rebound within a prior downtrend." The price is now close to a strong resistance level, making it an excellent position to speculate on a pullback and short.
Trading suggestion: Short at 1260-1220 with target at 1200-1130 #ZEC institutional funds entering, high-level leverage starting to clear out The cash market opened for half an hour, $ETH rose from 2316 to 2445, and the 15-minute trading volume surged from two to three million to fifty to sixty million. The spot price is still fluctuating between 2420–2430. The number of contract-held coins dropped from about 2.367 million to 2.359 million, and the long-short account ratio went from about 2.09 to 2.06 — price rising while positions shrink, more like shorts being squeezed rather than new longs accumulating positions. Meanwhile, the $SOL long-short account ratio remains stuck around 3, with no clear structural change.
This bullish candle should be seen as a short squeeze; do not chase above 2400. Wait for volume to shrink in tomorrow's early session and for positions not to accumulate again before deciding whether to follow with a small amount of spot.#Прогноз финансовой отчетности AMD: прогресс коммерциализации системы HeliosAI $AAVE
Aave V4's Equities Hub has listed SpaceX's tokenized stock SPCXc as collateral, only for collateral use, and only USDC can be borrowed.
The parameters are very conservative. Collateral ratio is 55%, cap at 37,000 tokens, calculated at the closing price of 147.79 on October 20, which is about $5.47 million.
Holding SpaceX shares allows borrowing stablecoins without selling, which sounds appealing. What I’m watching is that cap—$5.47 million, not even enough for a medium-sized altcoin’s daily volume.
Risk advisor LlamaRisk also warns that the SpaceX stock batch is about to unlock, and if SPCXc suddenly plunges, liquidators will have to dump the collateral on the spot. Those who understand the depth of the order book for this on Base know what that means.
AAVE rose 4.7% in 24 hours, touching 136.94 from 123.14, with 460,000 contracts traded in the 23:00 1-hour candle, while previous candles only had around 100,000 to 200,000. The market is buying, but no one is talking about this.
My view is the opposite; this is not good news. It’s using the worst liquidity period of private equity to support an on-chain liquidation line.
If something really goes wrong, the slowest part won’t be liquidation. It will be discovery.
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 #AMDQ3DataCenterUp97% AMD Q3 2026 Earnings: Data Center revenue jumps 97% to record highs! 💻🚀
#AMDQ3DataCenterUp97% trends at No. 3 with 2.06M views!
Highlights: Q3 revenue jumped 45% YoY to $13.377B (adj. EPS $2.09), beating Wall St estimates. Data Center sales surged 97% to ~$8.5B. AMD guides Q4 revenue to ~$17B, while CEO Lisa Su projected ≥80% growth in 2027.
Assets: $AMD (-6.38%) 🔴 | $xAMD (-6.46%) 🔴
Will strong AI & Data Center momentum spark the next rally? Share below! $BTC
At 22:10 I was still writing that shorts were reducing positions and longs were unwilling to pay a premium, but an hour later people were pressing faces to the ground.
At 22:00, that 1-hour candle went straight from 78339 to 81199.9, with 2.81 million contracts traded. The previous candle had only 260,000 contracts, ten times less.
Liquidations came layer by layer. At 22:53, statistics showed 135 million liquidated in one hour across the network, 90% were shorts; by 23:30, in that one hour, 466 million were liquidated, with shorts accounting for 379 million. More than tripled in half an hour.
My mistake was not the direction, but the timing. Shorts reducing positions is not admitting defeat; they just moved their stop losses higher. US stocks Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon rose 5 to 8 points in one day, Nasdaq rose over 2 points, and once risk appetite returned, leveraged short positions became fuel.
Now at 80460, the upper shadow of 81199 candle still presses overhead. Open interest is 2.76 billion, as thick as two hours ago, and the fee rate returned to the 0.01% baseline. After one round of liquidations, no new money came in to take over.
I won’t chase longs at this level.
Waiting for a pullback.
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 ETH｜$2,425, up 5.60% intraday: the strongest rebound among the three coins, short-term bullish bias. Rebounded from 2,223 to a high of 2,448, clearly surpassing the previous resistance zone of 2,300—2,315. Next, focus on whether 2,375—2,390 can turn into support; if it holds and breaks through 2,445—2,450, watch 2,475—2,500 above. If it falls below 2,375 and fails to recover, first look at 2,335—2,350.The US nonfarm payrolls are about to be released, and what the market is really waiting for is whether employment has strengthened.
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release the October employment report at 8:30 AM Eastern Time on November 6. Market forecasts generally focus on an increase of 50,000 to 65,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate expected to be around 4.1% to 4.2%.
September nonfarm payrolls only increased by 29,000 jobs, indicating that hiring remains moderate. But this does not mean the labor market has stalled; the latest JOLTS data shows there are still 7.5 million job vacancies.
I am more concerned about whether both job growth and the unemployment rate improve simultaneously. If job growth significantly exceeds expectations, the market may revise upward its pricing for the Federal Reserve maintaining high interest rates.
For $BTC, the nonfarm data affects the US dollar and funding costs, not directly determining price movements. Before the report is released, I will not bet on a direction based on a forecast value.
#美国10月非农前瞻：就业增长或牵动12月加息预期 #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 #CircleQ3营收超预期，USDC链上交易量增长49% $BTC On November 5th (tomorrow) at 20:15 Beijing time, the US October ADP employment figures will be released, followed by the ISM Services PMI at 23:00. These two data points are the most direct short-term variables for tomorrow. The logic chain is clear: if both employment and service sector prices are simultaneously overheated, expectations for the Fed to maintain a tight stance will be reinforced, causing the dollar and US Treasury yields to suppress BTC; conversely, moderate or cooling data may provide BTC some breathing room. The current market pricing for a December rate hike is already hawkish, which means the risk of an unexpected "overheated" data surprise tomorrow represents a bearish asymmetric exposure for BTC. An address starting with 0xf08 holds about $101 million worth of $BTC, $ETH, $HYPE, and $ZEC long positions on Hyperliquid.
The day before, it was near the liquidation line, and now it has a floating profit of $4.06 million.
Where did the money come from? Breaking it down, the $BTC position contributed $1.754 million, and the $ZEC position contributed $1.245 million; together, these two make up the vast majority. This is not a mild overall market rise with all four coins going up together, but rather two positions dragging the entire order from underwater to profit.
What’s even more notable is the volatility. The address’s daily P&L swing exceeded $5.78 million. For the same position to flip from near liquidation to profitable within a day shows it stayed very close to the liquidation price, with a very thin safety buffer.
The mechanism is very typical: cross margin, high leverage, multiple coins bet simultaneously. If any one coin moves against it for a stretch, it could break through the entire position’s buffer; conversely, as long as one position rebounds quickly, the whole order can be rescued together. The gains and risks are amplified by the same leverage; the money it makes and the risk it takes are the same thing.
So this kind of address is suitable as a sentiment thermometer, but not as a directional indicator. It can go from near liquidation to a $4 million floating profit in a day, and then reverse back within the next hour.
One point worth pondering: are you seeing that it now made $4.06 million, or that it almost went to zero the night before?The US stock market really made me laugh these past two days: the better the earnings report, the less you can blindly chase? 😭
$AMD delivered last night, with Q3 revenue of $13.4 billion, and data center business soaring 97% year-over-year! This time, Lisa Su is really not just painting a rosy picture; AI chips and server CPUs are selling well. But what I fear most is that the results are so good that everyone knows in advance, and rushing in turns you into a bag holder. (꒪⌓꒪)
$CRCL also released its report today: revenue and reserve income of $865 million, up 17% year-over-year, with adjusted EBITDA up 85%. Sounds great, right? But looking closely at the report, reserve income actually dropped from $711 million to $658 million, and they also confirmed about $182 million in ARC token presale income. Don’t just see total revenue growth and assume the USDC business is fully taking off; the revenue structure is key. ╭(°A°`)╮
$AAPL is another kind of painful. Quarterly revenue of $114.48 billion, not bad, but dragged down by rising storage chip prices. The company expects holiday season gross margin to drop to 45%–46%. Turns out in the AI boom, some make money selling shovels, while others feel the pain buying them. 😭
Now the US stock market isn’t without opportunity, but capital is becoming picky: who can sustain growth, and who is just a one-time looker. Are you more willing to hold AMD, or waiting for CRCL and Apple to drop to create opportunities?
#AMD #CRCL #AAPL #USStocks
Not investment advice.ZEC is once again leading the crypto market rally.
On November 4th, ZEC recorded a gain of about 14%, while BTC's increase during the same period was noticeably smaller.
More notably, ZEC's open interest in contracts grew by approximately 25%, significantly exceeding the price increase, with active buying also leading among major coins.
This indicates that ZEC's recent rise is accompanied by new contract positions being established, and market trading activity is rapidly picking up.
However, the funding rate has turned positive, and more traders are starting to hold long positions.
If the price continues to rise, it may attract more trend-following capital; but if it suddenly falls back, the crowded leveraged longs could amplify the decline.
I remain optimistic about ZEC's long-term potential.
In the short term, watch whether it can hold steady around $1,300; if it can break through $1,400, there is a chance to challenge $1,500 again in the next phase.
Compared to other altcoins, ZEC's current relative strength is still worth paying attention to. $ZEC $ETH $BTC Trump has directly entered a lame-duck status. The most direct consequence might be the "death sentence" for the CLARITY Act. TD Cowen's conclusion is very straightforward: the probability of passing in the next two years is zero; if it isn't resolved before the new Congress opens in January next year, it will have to start over. The Senate Banking Committee will most likely replace Elizabeth Warren, and the House Financial Services Committee will replace Maxine Waters, both of whom are not friendly towards crypto. Today $BTC fell below 76,000 before rebounding; the panic index rose from 26 back to 34 but remains in the fear zone. On November 4, the US spot ETF saw net outflows for the third consecutive day, with $115.6 million withdrawn. $BTC bounced back to 78,500 due to overselling, but the ETF continues to bleed. Next, it depends on the 76,000 line—how many times it can hold under outflow pressure. #USMidtermElections: Democrats won control of both chambers of Congress Latest Long and Short Position Battle
Brother Maji currently increased his position to 3,214 $ETH long orders, valued at about $7.47 million, with 25x full margin, opened at $2,284, liquidation price at $2,279... but the market was ruthless and liquidated it. $CORE can persistently do the opposite like this, definitely making huge profits.
On the contrary, the short army leader's largest position is a $ETH short order, holding about 6,068 ETH, valued at approximately $13.76 million, using 25x leverage, with an average opening price around $2,274, liquidation price at 6,021, accounting for over 60% of this leader's total unrealized profit. This ETH long order uses a full margin mode.
#AMD数据中心收入近翻倍，营收及指引均超预期 Data center revenue surged 97%, but AMD only rose about 8% after hours.
After hours on November 3, AMD reported Q3 revenue of $13.38 billion, a 45% year-over-year increase, exceeding the market expectation of $13.09 billion.
Adjusted earnings per share were $2.09, also higher than the expected $1.95.
The real driver was the data center: revenue of $8.55 billion, up 97% year-over-year, a record high, accounting for 64% of total revenue.
Even more impressive was the guidance.
Q4 revenue guidance is about $17 billion, higher than the market expectation of $16.2 billion, and the CEO expects overall revenue growth to exceed 80% by 2027.
Keep in mind this stock has dropped about 23% in the past month, with three consecutive days of decline before the earnings report.
I believe this is evidence that AI infrastructure demand has not cooled off, not a sign of a bubble burst; watch without chasing; the failure point would be if Q4 guidance falls short or data center growth drops below 50%.
Do you think this is the second wave of AI demand, or just a last flash after the earnings report?
$AMD $NVDA
#AMD数据中心收入近翻倍，营收及指引均超预期 The shorts have been completely wiped out, so what’s next? There are still two tough battles this week.
Tonight, the shorts were bloodied. $BTC broke 80,000, $ETH surged to 2450, with 415 million liquidated in one hour, shorts contributing 330 million. The funding rate is still positive, indicating this was a short squeeze, not new inflows.
How far this rebound can go doesn’t depend on how many shorts were liquidated tonight, but on two variables ahead:
① The "expectation gap" of the midterm elections: The market has priced in a full Democratic victory, but whether the crypto-friendly policies of the Trump administration will be blocked is the next point of contention;
② ETF capital flow: A net outflow of 859 million in the past 6 days, when it turns positive is the real signal of institutional return.
Short clearing is good, but if no spot buying follows, 80,000 will just be another resistance level. My fully short position is now laid flat; I will only watch for signals and not take action.
$ZEC
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 Approved on November 3rd, sued on November 3rd: US stock perpetual contracts just became legal in the US, and Wall Street immediately took it to court that same day.
CFTC Chairman Selig announced that individual stock perpetual contracts can be traded on regulated exchanges, approved as securities futures, jointly regulated by the SEC.
On the same day, the Capital Markets Alliance, supported by Cboe and Citadel, filed a lawsuit in the Southern District Federal Court of New York, requesting to revoke the approval and freeze trading during the litigation, arguing that this falls under SEC jurisdiction as securities swaps, not futures.
The first batch has already launched: Kalshi rolled out four individual stock perpetuals that day—Amgen, McDonald's, Qualcomm, and Costco.
The most interesting beneficiary: Hyperliquid’s technology is entering the US market under ICE’s shell. Six days ago, when the news broke, HYPE surged 21% in one day to $97.74, then retreated to about $85.5 on Wednesday, still holding above the $78 support.
I think this dispute is not about the product but about "who calls the shots," with the failure point being the court approving a freeze on trading or the SEC publicly taking over.
What do you think—will US stock perpetuals land first in the US, or will they be held down by the court first?
$HYPE $ICE
#CFTC approved US stock perpetual contracts sued on the same dayContinue to build positions in batches; subsequent entries are decided by myself.
Currently, my holding cost is 307, with a position size of 28%.
Why choose to build positions at this level?
1️⃣ Technical aspect: Daily, weekly, and monthly charts have all entered oversold zones, indicating a clear rebound demand. The price has retraced about 33% from the previous high. Whether for medium to long-term allocation or short-term trading, the current price offers a certain cost-performance advantage.
2️⃣ AI long-term logic: If the development direction of the AI industry is correct, Google still has a world-class technical team and a huge user base. Once AI Agents are widely implemented in the future, leveraging the search ecosystem and existing traffic, the growth potential is considerable. What really needs caution is the bubble risk in the entire AI industry.
3️⃣ Market sentiment: Currently, market sentiment is very pessimistic, with funds continuously withdrawing. Google, once highly favored, is now heavily sold off. Such extreme sentiment often deserves our close attention.
4️⃣ My trading plan: I am not in a hurry to go all-in at once. I will gradually lower my holding cost through swing operations, wait for the right opportunity to free up funds, and then shift part of the position to seek opportunities in the crypto market.
Investment is about rhythm; there is no need to chase the rally or blindly bottom-fish.
Friends who are optimistic about this direction are welcome to communicate and join!😀
#DemocratsWinCongress $META Direction: Long
· Entry: Buy on a pullback and stabilization around 625 - 630 (near the support just below the current price).
· Stop Loss: Firmly stop loss if it breaks below 605 (below the previous low).
· Take Profit: First target 644 (previous high), second target 650.
⚠️ Note: Overall in a consolidating uptrend, with a short-term pullback after a spike. MACD is running above the zero line, waiting for a pullback to confirm support. Do not chase the price higher directly; use light positions with stop loss.#CircleQ3 revenue exceeds expectations, USDC on-chain transaction volume grows 49% ⚡ Three core disputes tearing the market apart
Dispute 1: Will the "yield distribution" channel of USDC be directly shut down by legislation? The draft "CLARITY Act" proposes to prohibit paying yields on stablecoin balances and explicitly blocks arrangements "economically equivalent to interest." Coinbase distributes reserve yields to users through "USDC Rewards," which is a key driver of USDC holding willingness. If this channel is closed, users' yield from holding USDC will drop to zero, and demand contraction will transmit along the path of "weakened retail holding motivation → slower circulation growth → slower reserve pool thickening → weakening Circle's revenue growth story." Whether legislators strictly limit stablecoins to pure payment tools rather than interest-bearing assets will directly determine USDC's demand elasticity.
Dispute 2: Is Circle "financial infrastructure" or "shadow banking under regulatory arbitrage"? The bearish core accusation is: Circle's profits do not come from commercial efficiency but from the institutional arrangement where regulators prohibit issuers from directly passing Treasury interest to users. Once policies loosen or competitors indirectly bypass restrictions through rebates, staking, etc., Circle's interest margin space will be directly hollowed out. Whether the "compliance premium" can convert into sustainable pricing power or is merely aApple's latest financial report reveals a noteworthy phenomenon.
In the fourth fiscal quarter, revenue reached $114.48 billion, surpassing market expectations, with iPhone revenue at $57.58 billion.
However, Apple also warned that the gross margin for the next quarter may decline from 47.9% to 45%–46%.
The issue lies with memory chips.
As global AI data centers continue to expand, demand for memory chips has surged, and related costs are being passed on to the smartphone and computer industries.
Even a tech giant like Apple finds it difficult to completely avoid this.
This means the AI investment boom is triggering a chain reaction:
data centers are willing to pay higher prices for chips, supply chain resources are being reallocated accordingly, and procurement costs for consumer electronics companies may also rise.
Apple can alleviate pressure by raising prices, adjusting product mix, and managing the supply chain, but whether these measures can fully offset rising costs remains to be seen in future financial reports.
The money earned by the AI industry may be turning into costs for other tech companies. $AAPL $BTC $ETH November 4 Cryptocurrency Hotspot Quick Review
1. BTC stages a "deep V" drama
Dropped below 76,000, rebounded to 78,000, 90,000 liquidations in one day, $419 million evaporated. Both bulls and bears suffered, leveraged gamblers are the biggest losers again.
2. Binance "insider leak" continues to ferment
An engineer's laptop was hacked by social engineering, $3 billion frozen on-chain. SAFU covered the losses, but trust is something that diminishes with each incident.
3. Midterm elections shake the whole situation
Democrats flipped the Senate blue, the market fell first then rose. Political turnover plus regulatory changes, what the crypto world fears most is not bad news, but uncertainty itself.
4. Gold breaks 4000, BTC can't rally
Both are "safe-haven assets," gold surged $90 in a day hitting a new high, Bitcoin is still 38% below its all-time high. In this macro narrative, BTC looks more like a risk asset.
5. October curse strikes twice
Second consecutive year of October closing down, monthly drop of 7.3%. Four-year cycle theorists say "the bottom is in November"—but the market never follows the script.
In a nutshell: Election night + liquidation wave + Binance security incident all happening simultaneously, today's crypto world is not short of stories, but short of certainty.
Want me to help you dig deeper into the macro drivers and shifts in capital preference behind the divergence between Bitcoin and gold trends? #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 $BTC $ETH Where the future advantage lies: There is a moat, but with a premise. Circle's true structural advantage is not in "scale," but in compliance admission qualifications. After regulatory implementation, stablecoin competition shifts from "who is bigger" to "who can be institutionally integrated into the mainstream financial system." USDC holds over 55 global compliant financial licenses, including the U.S. OCC national trust bank charter, and was among the first in Europe to fully pass MiCA review. Banks, payment companies, and compliant exchanges tend to treat USDC as a "whitelisted asset," which is a regulatory barrier that USDT is unlikely to replicate in the short term. Data also supports this: in Q3 2026 institutional cross-border settlements, USDC accounts for 72%, USDT only 18%; USDC's share of on-chain USD stablecoin transaction volume once approached 80%. But realizing this advantage has a critical premise: profits must shift from a "spread model" to a "network model." Circle's management clearly stated in the Q3 earnings call that CPN (Circle Payment Network) annualized transaction volume grew more than 15 times year-over-year as a core narrative and expects substantial contribution by 2027. If CPN can convert USDC's flow from a "transaction medium" into a fee-based infrastructure for high-frequency payments and clearing, revenue will no longer be 100% tied to interest rates. Before CPN's revenue share substantially rises, the compliance moat still protects an interest rate-sensitive asset, not a true platform company.
#CircleQ3营收超预期，USDC链上交易量增长49% Bullish: Bitcoin erases the entire mid-term uncertainty sell-off, rebounding 4% from below $79K to reclaim $81K.
In the past 4 hours, $386 million worth of short positions have been liquidated.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index also climbed from the "Fear" zone to "Neutral" today. $ETH That recent surge was really exciting. The price shot up from around 2320 to about 2440. But looking at the contract data, open interest actually shrank. The 1-hour open interest dropped by about 1%, which is a bit surprising.
The price jumped so much, yet on-exchange open interest decreased. This wasn’t driven by bulls actively opening positions. It’s purely a chain reaction triggered by forced liquidations. Shorts were forced out, pushing the price higher. The market lacks sustained buying power to follow through. Funding rates remain at a normal level of one ten-thousandth. No new money is flowing in from outside.
Switching to the 4-hour chart, EMA20, EMA50, and EMA100 still show a bearish alignment. The dominant control on the larger timeframe remains with the bears. The current price just touched the 4-hour resistance near 2440. This is a previous high that has been tested multiple times but never broken.
Looking ahead, I’m bearish. The 4-hour strong resistance overhead is capping the price. The rally driven by forced liquidations lacks momentum. Without large volume to break out, I expect a downward correction first.
$BTC $SOL #Anthropic潜在IPO投资者建议估值降至1.5万亿美元 $BTC This rally, is it driven by Trump's narrative or a technical breakout?
On the 1H chart, BTC quickly rose from the low of 75,690 to 81,199, an increase of about 7.3%, and the current price has pulled back to around 80,589.
News:
Trump's recent midterm election-related remarks lean towards a "pro-crypto" narrative, with the market taking the opportunity to trade on expectations of "US election/regulatory friendliness." But note—such remarks usually first boost contract sentiment; true sustainability depends on whether spot/stablecoin volumes follow.
Technical:
After breaking above MA60 (77,565), acceleration occurred, short-term trend turned stronger;
MACD golden cross upward, momentum still present;
But RSI6 has reached 88.55, 1H is in severe overbought territory, chasing highs carries significant risk;
Volume expansion is concentrated at the rally peak, currently pulling back to 80,500; if it cannot hold, it may fill back to 78,400/77,600.
Key levels:
Upside: Can it hold above 81,200?
Downside: 80,000 round number → 78,400 → MA60/77,600;
If the pullback does not break MA60, the structure remains strong; if it breaks down with volume, it may be a false breakout driven by news.
Conclusion:
Trump's remarks ignited the move, the technical breakout confirmed it, but with RSI overbought and a sharp rise followed by a pullback, it is better to wait for a pullback confirmation rather than blindly chasing the highs. #CircleQ3 revenue exceeds expectations, USDC on-chain transaction volume grows 49% 🔻 Can it be bearish: bearish reasons are "stronger" than the bullish narrative
First, Circle is essentially not a tech company but a quasi-bank "earning interest spread," and interest rates are moving in the opposite direction. Its revenue almost entirely comes from interest on USDC reserves (cash + short-term U.S. Treasuries). During high interest rate periods, theoretical annualized interest income can reach the $3.5 billion level. But if rates fall from 5% to 3%, revenue under a $70 billion scale directly evaporates by about 40%. For every 100 basis points cut, reserve income shrinks by about $800 million to $1 billion, nearly 30% of current revenue. The so-called 49% transaction volume growth does not change the fact that profits are determined by Federal Reserve rates, not on-chain activity.
Second, before profits reach Circle, most have already been taken by channels. Distribution costs reach $448 million, accounting for 60% of revenue. According to the revenue-sharing structure, about 61% of profits go to Coinbase, and Coinbase’s own USDC holdings’ earnings are 100% theirs. Growth in circulation does not equal a simultaneous increase in net profit margin; the larger USDC grows, the more Coinbase takes, making Circle’s "platform" narrative pale in the face of profit distribution structure.$BTC just pushed above $80,000 with strong volume, reaching $81,199. Buyers are firmly in control, but the sharp move could bring a retest before continuation.
Entry: $79,900-$80,200 (Long)
SL: $79,300
TP1: $81,200
TP2: $82,000
TP3: $83,000
Momentum context: Strong breakout with expanding volume. $80K is the key support to defend.
Conviction: High$XRP hackers dumped 233 million coins, and with the unlocked tokens, other altcoins would have already crashed.
But $XRP not only didn’t crash, it actually rallied 3.3% against the trend.
The most amazing part is that exchange inventories keep dropping, and all the coins coming out are being swallowed by large spot holders.
The funding rate hasn’t spiked at all; this rally is purely driven by spot buying, with no leverage involved.
After the biggest selling pressure nuke has been dropped, what do the shorts have left to push down?
#XRP
$XRP
👇$ETH ETH simply can't be pushed down at the 2290 level.
The Ethereum inventory in exchanges has dropped to 14.5 million coins, hitting a historic low since 2016.
Whales are continuously withdrawing spot ETH into their own wallets, basically sweeping out all the sellable spot on the market.
The chart looks stagnant and dead silent, but in fact, the bears have long run out of ammunition.
With the chips locked up like this, the bulls just need a slight push to trigger a breakout.
#ETH
$ETH
👇Ethereum surged to 2449, with over 99 million in short position liquidations within an hour. The Democratic Party's sweep has created short-term sentiment pressure and increased medium-term regulatory uncertainty for Ethereum, but the market has partially digested this. The price reaction mainly showed a "fall first then rebound" pattern, without a crash. ETH's trend still depends more on macro factors and its own fundamentals rather than a single election result. Follow-up focus includes new congressional committee appointments, the fate of the CLARITY Act, ETF fund flow changes, and Federal Reserve policies.
Currently, bulls hold the initiative, targeting 2500, a significant resistance level. Whether it can hold above remains to be seen. The $80,000 mark has been reclaimed. The gap caused by the sell-off on the night of the issuance was filled overnight and then some.
The 24-hour range pulled from $75,695.41 to $81,003.70, reporting $80,531.92 at 23:34.
After 9 PM, it sharply rallied from around $78,000, breaking through the $79,500 resistance in one go.
On the same side, the US spot Bitcoin ETF still had a net outflow of $116 million on November 3, totaling about $1.16 billion over three consecutive days.
The price moved ahead first; institutional money hasn't returned yet. Consider this rebound as an emotional recovery, not a trend reversal.
#Bitcoin #Crypto #ETF #MidtermsBTC suddenly surged! From $75,700 to $81,199, what happened?
Today BTC staged a V-shaped rebound! Previously affected by the US midterm elections, BTC once dropped to around $75,700, then quickly rallied, reaching a high of $81,199, a rebound of over 7%, but then it fell back.
There are three main reasons for this rise:
1. Election results settled, market panic eased
The US midterm election results gradually became clear, political uncertainty eased, market risk appetite recovered, and BTC saw an oversold rebound.
2. Increased bullish bets in the options market
According to CoinDesk, BTC large options trades reached a notional amount of about $660 million, of which about $420 million were call option purchases, indicating some funds are betting on a rise.
3. Short covering amplified the surge
Previously accumulated short positions were forced to close during the rapid price rebound, combined with leveraged liquidations, further driving BTC up.
Why did it retreat after reaching $81,199?
Mainly due to obvious selling pressure above, with previous trapped positions and short-term profit-taking concentrated selling, bulls temporarily failed to continue the breakout.
My trading view: short-term bearish, looking for shorting opportunities on the rebound.
This rise is more driven by sentiment repair and short covering; whether spot funds can continue to enter remains to be seen.
My approach is not to chase longs nor blindly chase shorts, waiting for the rebound to meet resistance before considering shorting. If volume increases and it stabilizes above $81,200, the bearish view needs to be reassessed.
$BTC $BTC repeatedly emphasized not to short, and the BTC75865 long position from yesterday's public strategy has now successfully taken off #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 $BTC $ETH The whole world is shouting bull comeback, but I opened a short
BTC surged from 76,300 to 81,000 overnight, ETH rose 6%, and the homepage is full of "bull comeback". I reversed and opened a short.
【First, why the surge is so strong】
1️⃣ Election settled: Democrats swept both chambers, uncertainty cleared, gold stood back at 4,000, global assets broadly rose
2️⃣ Short squeeze: After breaking 77,800, stop losses for shorts triggered in a chain reaction, shorts covered turning into buying pressure — today's main force behind the rise is forced liquidated shorts, not new money
3️⃣ Fear index at 26 pressed to the limit, a spring rebound must be strong
【Then why do I still dare to short】
The reason for the rise is "uncertainty settled," not "bull comeback." Two issues remain unresolved: The Fed is still in a rate hike cycle (3.75-4%), all 16 officials want to hike; Democrats took the Senate, Warren's regulatory hammer just raised. 80,000-81,000 is a resistance zone, the positive news is fully priced in, "buy the rumor, sell the fact" is a classic script.
【My discipline】
Stop loss fixed: If the 4-hour close stabilizes above 81,000, admit the mistake and exit, never hold the position. If it falls back below 79,996 (daily EMA20), this wave is a textbook false breakout, then the shorts' home court will come.
Bull comeback or not, let the price speak for itself. I can afford to lose this trade and admit quickly. On the eve of positive news realization, the most dangerous thing is often not the negative news
but rather "the story is over, but the money hasn't followed."
The entire network is focused on the countdown to the NU7 upgrade on November 5th, but the vast majority overlook a fatal detail: ZEC has pulled back from 1159 to 1319, the price has risen, yet contract open interest has decreased by nearly 5%.
What does this mean on the market? It's called short covering, not new longs aggressively attacking.
The funding rate is hovering around +0.01%, almost zero; the bulls don't even have the enthusiasm to celebrate wildly, and the shorts are not panicking.
This structure is like someone has set up a stage, but the audience seats are not full; once the lights go out, the crowd disperses faster than anyone.
Looking at the news, NU7 is indeed a hardcore upgrade, reducing block time from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, tripling transaction confirmation speed.
But the problem is, the positive news has long been public, and the market has been speculating in advance for a long time.
More subtly, co-founder Sean Bowe recently proposed stopping the automatic allocation of 8% of newly issued ZEC to community grant projects, revealing internal governance disagreements.
The disconnect between improving fundamentals and market sentiment is now out in the open.
I’m not betting on the fireworks at the moment the upgrade lands.
My long position average price is 1156, current price 1319, floating profit 419%, stop loss has long been moved above cost.
The resistance zone above is 1225-1250; if it can’t break through 1250, I will consider locking in some profits first; only if volume increases and it stabilizes above 1285 will it indicate real incremental capital entering, then we can talk about a trend reversal.
Positive news is meant to be realized, not blindly believed.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#CircleQ3营收超预期，USDC链上交易量增长49% This afternoon's pullback was much weaker than expected.
The key support at the four-hour level never broke effectively; the Bollinger middle band combined with the previous platform formed a strong support zone. The bears tried to break it twice but failed, with volume gradually decreasing—a typical fake breakdown shakeout pattern. As expected, the 80,000 level was broken tonight, pocketing 27,000 in profits. Tripling in three days, the bulls really had a big feast tonight.
Trading is never about betting on direction but waiting for the market to give the answer before getting on board. "Strong grass is known in the wind, loyal ministers are recognized in turmoil." Support that holds is the opportunity worth seizing. $BTC #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 🔥In-depth analysis of Big Brother Maji's latest 80 million position:
Why is he shorting BTC at 78,000 but holding onto HYPE stubbornly??
Studying Big Brother Maji's positions, I found several very interesting trading logics worth brothers' deep reflection:
1️⃣ The “inverted pyramid” trap of adding to ETH positions
Look carefully at the chart, he only has about 3,600 long contracts at ETH 2269 (base position), but added over 9,800 long contracts at 2427 (heavy position).
⚠️ Lesson: This is a typical “inverted pyramid add-on.” Once the market pulls back, the profits at the bottom are instantly eaten up by the heavy positions above. Currently, ETH has an unrealized loss of 1.3 million dollars, paying the price for this adding method.
2️⃣ HYPE's “value investing style” short
Short cost at 72.8, unrealized loss of 3.46 million dollars. But he only used 5x leverage.
Logic: He might believe HYPE is seriously overvalued, so he shorts long-term with low leverage. But this ignores the irrational exuberance of the crypto market. In a bull market, undervalued can get even lower, and overvalued can get even more absurd.
3️⃣ BTC's 40x leverage gamble
Opened a 40x short at 78,104, which is an extremely high-risk “left-side trade.” He is betting on a BTC double top or pullback. Currently slightly profitable, indicating timing is okay, but once it breaks 80,000, this position will be very dangerous.
Summary: Even top whales make mistakes like “holding against the trend” and “heavy positions at highs.” We learn from his thinking but must avoid his traps! $BTC $ETH #US Midterm Elections: Democrats Gain Control of Both Houses of Congress The market's previous pricing of Republican tax cuts, fiscal expansion, and crypto easing expectations has rapidly faded. Although the Democrats control the legislative agenda in both the House and Senate, the president holds veto power, so there will still be tug-of-war over major bills, with the biggest change being increased authority for investigations and regulatory scrutiny.
On the fiscal side, large-scale tax cut stimulus is difficult to advance, deficit expansion expectations cool down, long-term bond yields come under pressure, and the dollar weakens temporarily. However, subsequent debt ceiling and budget battles will increase, likely causing repeated disturbances in the bond market. In the industry, technology and AI face stronger antitrust scrutiny, and high-valuation growth stocks are under short-term pressure; expectations for tighter crypto regulation are rising, and BTC is easily suppressed by sentiment; traditional oil and gas policy benefits weaken, while new energy receives more support.
On the geopolitical front, Congress can constrain unilateral military actions by the White House through budget appropriations, reducing the probability of a full-scale conflict in the Middle East and causing the geopolitical premium on oil prices to decline. The election will only bring short-term policy premiums; the medium- to long-term main themes remain nonfarm payrolls, inflation, and Federal Reserve interest rates, and currently, this is only media speculation, with market volatility likely to increase during vote counting. $BTC $ETH $ZEC