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Do you know what the most surreal thing these past two days is?
It's not that HYPE rose 13% against the trend. It's that the people who were shouting "Altcoins are dead" in the group last night cut all their positions at the lowest point early this morning.
BTC dropped below 80,000, ETH is just over 2,200, SOL can't even hold 100. The panic index is 30.
I've been watching for a while, and in one sentence: this drop isn't caused by news, it's because some people just don't want to play anymore.
Even Ansem has turned bearish. Despite the US stock market rising so much without a proper correction, he says we're near the end of the macro cycle, cutting longs and opening shorts, targeting BTC at 70,000.
My $ZEC short is still open, entered at 739, now over 1,200, losing money. It dropped 6% today, the loss is smaller but still far from breaking even.
Honestly, I'm not happy at all, because holding on until now is purely because it hasn't risen again.
As for your question about stop loss? I know I should stop, but I haven't yet—that's human nature.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC The Federal Reserve held steady overnight, keeping rates at 4%. Don't be fooled by the "no rate hike" 😐: 2 of the 12 members voted for an immediate hike, the statement used tougher language on growth, and Walsh emphasized that inflation is far from 2% with no room to back down. This is not a dovish turn, but a hawkish pause — no move in October, with pressure already on the table for December 🦅.
The market also gave an answer. Bitcoin hovered around 80,000 and Ethereum near 2,320 without any decent rebound, instead grinding down even weaker than overnight 📉. Those hoping to "buy the dip because no rate hike" were most likely schooled by the market today.
The reason is straightforward: the no rate hike was priced in two weeks ago; the real new variables are the 2 dissenting votes and Walsh's tough stance, all pointing to a possible hike by year-end. Funding costs remain at 4%, no new money is coming in, and the positive factors have been fully priced — what else can drive a rally? 🤔
I remain bearish: if Bitcoin breaks below 80,000, next support is 76,000; if Ethereum falls below 2,240, look for 2,200. No chasing rebounds, holding cash, waiting for the market to give its own answer 💵. #美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高 #OKX、ICE与Trade.xyz联手，推动永续合约进入美国合规市场 Funding rate is -0.0022% per hour. Let me pour some cold water first: this is not a "shorts are too many, rebound is imminent" pass. I tend to treat it as a gauge of bearish sentiment rather than a bottom signal. The $NEAR in the material experienced a sharp short-term drop, with trading volume and open interest also listed. The data comes from Hyperliquid perpetual contract public market data, so don't directly extrapolate it to the entire market's condition.
I'm not in a hurry to bet on a reversal for two reasons. Negative funding rates usually mean shorts pay longs, but paying doesn't mean shorts immediately collapse; if the price continues to weaken, this holding cost may not necessarily force liquidations, that's my speculation. Another point is that open interest is just the stock; it doesn't reveal whether these positions are directional bets or hedges. Just shouting "shorts are crowded" based on negative funding rates lacks sufficient evidence, and you can't treat potential short covering as actual buying yet.
Of course, those betting on a rebound might be right. If the price stops making new lows later, shows sustained support, and the funding rate gradually returns to neutral, I would downgrade the bearish view; that would look more like selling pressure being absorbed rather than just an overextended drop. For this volatility, are you long or short? State your reasons: do you value the potential short covering from negative funding rates, or do you find the price weakness more convincing? As soon as the barn door was pushed open, the full granary pressed down on the wooden beams, making them creak, but the old farmer reached out, lifted and weighed it, yet his brow still furrowed into a knot—this is exactly the situation with Samsung's books this season: revenue of 19.53 trillion KRW, operating profit of 10.74 trillion, net profit more than quintupled compared to the same period last year. The ears of grain are full, but when weighed, the weight still falls a little short of the market's expected scale.
Farmers never judge the harvest by just one season's yield. Storage is the staple of this land; HBM4 is the improved variety newly planted this year. With good seeds sown, the seedlings are uniform and tillering is vigorous, pushing memory revenue and profits to historic highs—this means the soil fertility has been restored, not just a superficial gain from a single rain. What really makes the old farmer squint and look far ahead is the phrase "investment in AI infrastructure will hit a record by 2027": this is not chasing a single crop's fertilizer, this is digging irrigation channels. The channels will take three years to dig, with earthworks piling up year after year, and only then will water slowly flow into the fields. Whose land gets water first, whose seedlings will fill the grains first.
Looking again at the supply and demand moisture: demand is growing faster than supply, not just a little faster, but like the urgent arrival of spring floods before the drainage ditches are finished digging. In such a year, two things are most to be avoided—one is hastily harvesting just because the seedlings grow vigorously, causing green grains to shrivel when dried; the other is abandoning your own field because it grows slowly to chase after neighbors' fields that are already heading. The land has a temper; if you rush it, it will fool you.
Nowadays, city folks divide this land's harvest into small portions, turning them into notes traded on the price board, with rises and falls depending entirely on overnight clouds. But clouds cannot decide soil fertility; the solar terms are the hard truth. Net profit has quintupled year-on-year yet is still "below expectations"—in the field, this means: the millet is clearly abundant, but grain prices have not kept up—high yield does not equal a good harvest, a full granary does not equal a full pocket, with a whole drying yard and a grain station's inspection in between.
The old farmer squats on the ridge finishing this cigarette, recognizing only one thing: before the channels are dug through, any talk of a good harvest is just numbers on paper; while the seedlings are still filling grains, the sickle must hang on the wall. #samsungq3recordprofitBinance was hacked for 5.6 billion, the entire network liquidated 1.1 billion, a bloodbath? Wake up, you've been fooled by the dog whales' script again.
Brothers, in the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $1.112 billion, with long positions liquidated at $930 million, $BTC once dropped to 78,906.
The whole network is shouting "Hacked dump, run fast."
Think about it: if the stolen coins really became selling pressure, would the dog whales let you know immediately?
Coinkarma revealed the bottom line: the stolen BTC is worth over a billion, but without Tornado's deep mixing pool, all addresses are tagged, and the liquidation cycle is measured in "years," so short-term selling pressure is almost zero.
Even more counterintuitive, if Binance uses the SAFU fund to compensate and replenish Bitcoin, this would actually become a super buying force!
Where is the real thunder? In $ETH. A large amount of tokens converted to ETH then funneled into Tornado, making it hard to track.
The real short-term dump threat is those billions in ETH, not BTC.
Understand now? Of the 1.1 billion liquidations, 930 million are long positions; the ones dying are leveraged traders chasing pumps and dumps, not Bitcoin itself.
The dog whales used one piece of news to wash out leveraged longs, tricking you into handing over blood-stained chips at 78,000.
The stolen coins belong to Binance, but those buried are the short-sellers. BTC's selling pressure is locked on-chain, your positions are locked on the floor. $BTC slid from above 80,000 down to around 77,000, with over 240,000 people liquidated in 24 hours, longs accounting for the majority of the liquidations[reference:0].
$ETH followed with a nearly 6% drop; withdrawals on Binance have not yet resumed, the hot wallet issue hasn't been fully resolved, and leverage ended up hurting itself first.
But the real interesting part isn't in the crypto circle.
The A-share market dropped over 4% yesterday in the dual innovation sectors, while Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and China Construction Bank hit new all-time highs again, with the total market value of the big four banks surpassing 10 trillion.
In the US stock market, Google fell 12% in one day, the Nasdaq was dragged down by doubts over AI returns, but Eli Lilly surged over 6% against the trend thanks to weight loss drugs.
The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong lost 23,000 points, tech stocks took a hit, while domestic banks and insurance stocks were supporting the market.
Money hasn't disappeared; it just moved from the place where "the story is told the loudest" to the place where "you can sleep well tonight."
$BTC and tech stocks now share the same nerve: they shout together when rising, and when falling, no one can run first.The most dangerous move on the chessboard is never the opponent pushing the queen to g7, but rather when you capture it and then see that diagonal line. Azure's revenue growth of 48%, exceeding expectations, is just a bait; the real move in Microsoft's quarterly report is the OpenAI-related commercial revenue reaching $10 billion, approaching 11% of quarterly revenue. This is not a pawn probe, but a central control—if you don't move, it pressures your pieces; if you move, it changes your structure.
In the opening phase, the market only looks at revenue of $9.228 billion, a 19% year-over-year increase, like watching who moves the elephants first. But a grandmaster doesn't count pieces on the 8th move; I count pawn structure. Azure's next quarter guidance of 49% to 50% constant currency is a waiting move: not rushing to checkmate, but forcing the opponent to show their hand first. The 2026 calendar year capital expenditure of about $170 billion is more like sacrificing three pawns to seize open lines; the short-term books look bad, but the trade is for long-term diagonal control. Free cash flow turns positive in fiscal 2027, indicating there is still a rook left in the endgame, not just relying on the king's wing to attack.
Those who truly calculate the position twenty moves ahead will break down the $10 billion related revenue: it is both a piece and a point of control. The deeper the revenue sharing is tied, the more Azure's growth resembles a passed pawn—looking like it can promote, but behind it must be enough pieces protecting it. The $170 billion capital expenditure is not a cost but an investment in the position; however, if Azure's growth drops a notch, this expenditure immediately turns from an "open line" into a "decoy tactic" backlash point. The AI credit spread is the weak square on the back wing that no one notices, silent in normal times but deadly when exchanging pieces.
The linkage with $xCRCL should not be seen as a simple piece exchange. Tokenized assets linked with giants like Microsoft follow the endgame passed pawn logic: the stronger the parent, the more valuable the passed pawn; the heavier the parent’s capital expenditure, the more the passed pawn fears being cut off from behind by a rook. The market is now focused on the 48% checkmate, but I focus on the time advantage behind the 49% to 50% guidance—whoever exhausts variations first, miscalculates first.
The winning move in this game is not in the beautiful tactical combinations of Q1, but in the 2026 calendar year endgame, where capital expenditure and free cash flow compete to convert pieces first. Those who treat the $170 billion as a cost will miscalculate by the twelfth move; those who treat it as a sacrificed piece can see the central square. #microsoftq1azuresurges #IntelQ3TerafabFoundry AI is competing for TSMC's advanced process capacity, and prices for regular PC processors are also moving accordingly. The Commercial Times today (October 12) cited the supply chain: Intel has been raising prices on multiple generations of PC processors since September—high-end Panther Lake by about 15% to 20% (mainly models equipped with TSMC N3E high-end GPU cores, not the entire lineup); Meteor Lake and Arrow Lake by about 5% to 10%. Bitcoin dropped sharply this morning from around 81,000 to about 77,800, roughly -4.3% in one day. This isn't a slow decline; it's leverage liquidations.
I think three things stacked up. The Fed held steady on Wednesday, keeping rates pinned at 3.75%–4%, with the chair's tone hawkish, pushing December rate hike expectations back up; Alphabet and Samsung earnings missed expectations, causing tech stocks in Asia to crash first, dragging risk assets down; on the contracts side, multiple data sources show about 350 million in positions were liquidated, with longs suffering more. Spot ETFs have actually been seeing inflows over the past three days, totaling about 400 million, but that couldn't stop the derivatives stampede. Today about 10.9 billion in options expire, with the biggest pain point near 78,000 — which has already been trampled.
The levels I'll be watching aren't chasing the current price. The next solid support is around 76,300 to 76,500 (September lows and daily moving average zone), then below that is the 75,000 whole number. If I want to try going long near there, I'd only use low leverage, about 2 to 3 times: stop loss about 2 points away, so even a 3x loss would only cost a few points of the account, avoiding a liquidation. Stop loss would be set if the daily close breaks below 75,000 or clearly breaks the 76,000 structure — cutting on structural failure, not just a random percentage.
Only when it reclaims 80,000 will this panic ease. If it breaks 75,000 and you stubbornly hold high leverage, you're just making things harder for yourself.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高 $ETH funding rates have all turned negative; ETH is about to be completely drained by BTC. Look at these rates: on major exchanges like Binance, Bybit, OKX, and Gate, ETH funding rates have all turned negative, meaning shorts are paying longs. What about BTC? Its rate is still positive at +0.0026%/8h, although it has dropped, it hasn't turned negative.
This is a classic divergence—within the same market, BTC longs are still holding strong, while ETH shorts have already taken the lead.
In October, ETH dropped more than 15%, while BTC only fell just over 4%. The ETH/BTC exchange rate has been declining steadily. Capital is truly moving from ETH to BTC. On Binance, ETH dropped 5%, BTC dropped 4.9%, roughly the same magnitude, but since ETH's base is smaller, the leverage impact is harsher on ETH.
What's more frustrating is that today is options expiration; ETH's Max Pain is at 2000, while the current price is 2332, a 14% downward pull in between. The selling pressure on expiration day won't be small.
Honestly, last time ETH was weaker than BTC, I switched to BTC but missed out because ETH rebounded faster. This time, I plan to try a different approach—not rushing to switch, but first seeing if the funding rate divergence can be corrected within a day or two. If ETH funding rates stay negative but the price doesn't fall, it means shorts are only making a short-term bet, not a trend exit, which would actually be a buying opportunity.
But right now, with negative funding rates plus options expiration pressure.
What do you think? How far do you think ETH will crash this time? Revenue of 127.58 billion, a year-on-year increase of 25%, yet still below consensus, with net profit shrinking by about a quarter — this is not a building collapsing, but a mismatch between the load-bearing wall positions on the blueprint and the actual pouring. From the perspective of a structural engineer looking at these numbers, the most glaring issue is never the few percentage points of year-on-year growth, but the 25% drop in profit: it’s like a rework caused by a design change, with all the costs dumped into "equity investment losses," a non-structural load. In other words, the main framework is intact, but the non-load-bearing infill walls have already cracked.
What really makes me want to spread out the floor plan is Google Cloud’s 103% growth. This is the only core vertical shaft in the entire report that stands straight — running directly from the foundation to the top floor, linking computing power, storage, and model services all in one vertical component. The search business revenue falling short of expectations is the most typical problem in old building renovations: the original column grid is still bearing pressure, but the newly added equipment floors can’t find a proper load transfer path.
The annual capital expenditure guidance of $195 billion to $205 billion remains unchanged, with a clear plan to significantly increase it by 2027 — this is the structural soul of this news. Outsiders see this as spending money; insiders see it as pre-pouring the floor, pre-embedding pipelines, and driving foundation piles. Whether a hundred-meter-high building can be raised to two hundred meters depends on whether the pile foundation eighteen meters underground has been arranged in advance. What Google is doing now is presetting all the "superstructure loads" for the next three to five years into today’s foundation. The short-term unattractive net profit is because the costs of the foundation and basic steel structure are all accounted for in the current period, while their true load-bearing allocation will only start to be realized as the upper floors are successively topped out.
Applying this logic to linked assets like $XCH makes the judgment even clearer. The linkage between on-chain assets and equity targets is essentially a corridor hanging beside the main building — when the main building shakes, the corridor’s node plates and anchor bolts bear the stress first. These components do not have independent load-bearing capacity; their safety factor entirely depends on whether they are firmly embedded into the main structure. When looking at them, don’t focus on how pretty their design is, but whether their connection nodes are welded tightly to real computing power demand and real cash flow.
The white paper is the blueprint, the financial report is the completion acceptance certificate, and capital expenditure is the roar of the pile driver. With these three laid out together, what I care about most is whether that roar continues — because once the foundation pouring stops, no matter how high the building is, it’s just a rendering. #googleq3mixedresults#Strategy财报前瞻：BTC账面收益大幅反弹 MSTR's impressive earnings report essentially reflects unrealized gains from Bitcoin price increases, not operating income. The book gains are just paper numbers, and the high-leverage coin hoarding model's risks persist. The current decline is a typical case of buying on expectations and selling on facts, with significant uncertainty in the subsequent market.A warm and moist airflow from the upper echelons of traditional asset management is forcefully pulling Bitcoin from the top of the convective layer into the boundary layer of multi-asset portfolios. VanEck has launched a multi-asset product that places stocks, bonds, gold, and Bitcoin on the same weather map, aiming to allocate only 2% cloud cover to Bitcoin, with an adjustable range between 1% and 5%, implemented through spot Bitcoin instruments. This is equivalent to embedding a scalable thunderstorm cell within a high-pressure ridge—its energy is modest, but its position is sensitive. Franklin Templeton’s two products are more straightforward, initially targeting about 95% U.S. stocks plus 5% Bitcoin exposure, using stock dividends reinvested to increase Bitcoin’s weight. Dividends act like stable precipitation replenishment, while Bitcoin’s weight swings slowly like a front within a pressure gradient.
From dividend reinvestment to multi-asset portfolios, asset management institutions are integrating Bitcoin from isolated convective cloud clusters into the regular climate state. A 2% allocation is like a thin high-altitude cloud that doesn’t block the sun but is enough to alter the radiation balance; the adjustable range of 1% to 5% resembles the amplitude of a cold front’s oscillation, seemingly mild but actually determining the subsequent cyclone’s path. The real signal lies not in the proportion but in traditional strategies beginning to incorporate extreme weather into business forecasting: no longer questioning whether tomorrow will be sunny, but assuming heavy rain will come and reserving parameters in the model in advance.
When a 2% Bitcoin allocation shifts from experimental sounding to finalized business practice, it is no longer an isolated thunderstorm cell on the weather map but written into the multi-cloud background of the climate state. Asset managers increasing Bitcoin exposure through dividend reinvestment is equivalent to repeatedly triggering localized strong convection at the edge of the subtropical high; individual precipitation amounts are limited, but continuous echoes leave traces on the monsoon scale. Once Bitcoin opens a gap in the boundary layer of multi-asset portfolios, subsequent frontal activities no longer require additional authorization. #vaneckfranklinbtcetfsBinance had an incident in the early morning, and Bitcoin fell below 77,000 overnight — at times like this, I definitely don’t catch falling knives.
Around 4 a.m., Binance's hot wallet experienced abnormal withdrawals, with an estimated multi-chain transfer of about $5.5 billion on-chain. Based on the coin prices at that time, this is not the final confirmed loss figure.
Binance itself said that user funds are safe, and it will cover all losses, with deposits and withdrawals temporarily suspended. Tether and Circle have already frozen over $2.4 billion worth of related stablecoins.
When I checked, BTC was around $76,979, down 4.8% in 24 hours, just over $200 above today's lowest point.
BNB fell even harder, to $696, down 7.6% in 24 hours, and ETH also returned to around $2,212. Honestly, with platform tokens falling like this, the market fears not just the price but trust.
There was $1.11 billion in liquidations across the network in 24 hours, with longs accounting for 84%, and over 180,000 people liquidated.
I’m just watching, not chasing.
I’ll wait until it stands back above 80,000 to talk about stopping the decline; if it falls below 76,760, today’s judgment is void. Before the exchange incident news is confirmed, bottom fishing is just gambling on the news, which is much harder than guessing prices. $BTC $BNB $ETH About a 2.79% price difference, combined with 10x leverage, roughly calculated based on initial margin, the return is about 27.9%, before fees. This $HYPE short position has been fully closed, realizing a profit of $52,100. Calculating the account, I focus not on how much was earned, but on how much the leverage amplified this small price difference.
My judgment is: this trade ended well, but 10x leverage itself is not very stable. If the price moves about 3% in the opposite direction, roughly calculated, it would consume about 30% of the initial margin. The same amplifier is used for both profit and loss; just because this time it made money doesn't mean this risk is easy to bear; the material also didn't provide a stop-loss arrangement, and I won't make up a risk control story for it.
If it were up to me, I would rather have less amplification and leave room for judgment errors. Next time I see a large profit, I will first calculate how much it would cost if it goes the other way, then decide if it's worth admiring. Strategy's Q3 earnings report is out, with a single-quarter operating profit of $20.9 billion, a record high, but the stock fell more than 2% after hours.
The reason is simple: this $20.9 billion is all unrealized gains from BTC appreciation, not actual cash. Even more awkwardly, the BTC amount per share actually dropped by 3.7%—total holdings rose 26% to 848,500 coins, but during the same period, $21.2 billion worth of shares were issued, diluting faster than coin purchases.
What’s really worth watching is the shift in financing strategy.
Previously, it was a "stock issuance to buy coins" perpetual motion machine; this quarter the focus shifted to repairing the balance sheet: repurchasing $2.04 billion of STRC $MSTR preferred stock, piling up $5.07 billion in USD reserves—enough to cover 3.4 years of dividends and interest. They also started "daily dividends," with STRC dividends paid daily starting November 1.
In plain terms, Strategy is spending money to buy time—repurchasing preferred stock to reduce future dividend burdens and hoarding cash to withstand interest pressure during downturns. The cost is dilution for common shareholders; Clear Street bluntly said: "Financing improvements come at the expense of common shareholders."
As for $BTC, the pace of buying tens of billions weekly seen in the first half of the year won’t return in the short term. They now prioritize preserving cash flow and reducing leverage rather than mindlessly increasing holdings. $BTC has ETF support around 90,000, but the marginal buying from the "largest bulls" is weakening; this rally can no longer rely solely on Strategy to provide a floor. #Strategy财报前瞻：BTC账面收益大幅反弹 Computing power demand is the narrative; the financial report is the verification. The key point I focus on is whether the cloud business can match the claims, without prematurely betting on one side. #AWS算力需求旺盛，亚马逊Q3财报有哪些看点？ $OKB's market looks dead, yet OKB has actually risen for three consecutive days to 113.69.
Platform tokens have their own rhythm, completely ignoring BTC's mood.
Behind this is actually the big game jointly invested by OKX and ICE. Combining the compliance resources of traditional financial giants with on-chain perpetuals, they are preparing to catch big opportunities under the US regulatory framework.
Although this level of positive news hasn't materialized yet, funds are already rushing ahead.
Once the big cake of compliant perpetuals is opened, the dozen-dollar pullback on the chart is nothing at all; the main force's intention to quietly accumulate is very obvious this round.
#OKB
$OKB
👇$SOL ETF saw a record single-day outflow of $19.16 million, and on-chain whales dumped 1.02 million SOL over 5 days.
Normally this would have crashed the price early, but the market stubbornly stayed sideways.
The bearish pressure can't move it down, clearly big money is holding strong below.
The obvious selling pressure can't shake the market; once the shorts run out of ammo, even a small spark will send it soaring.
#SOL
$SOL
👇A position of $82,800 does not mean you put in $82,800 of principal. Looking at this new $HYPE long position, the main point I want to clarify for newcomers is this difference: the material shows 10x leverage used, holding 929.3 units, but the total account funds are not given, so you can't judge how heavily they are betting based on this.
📌 Roughly calculating initial margin by dividing nominal value by leverage, the initial margin corresponds to about $8,279. If the price moves against the position by $1, the unrealized loss on this position is about $929, which is roughly 11% of the above margin, excluding fees for now. Leverage reduces the margin required to open the position, not the profit or loss amount for the same position size.
I do not recommend judging risk solely by "how many times leverage" is used. Newcomers often mistake margin for position size and overlook that the entire nominal value actually bears the volatility risk. My reminder to myself is: first calculate how much you would lose if the price moves one step wrong, then talk about how accurate your directional view is.Oil bounced from $89 to above $100 this month. Gold slid from 4,400 to 4,017, below the 4,053 level it never reclaimed. Strange, with Iran tensions unresolved? Not really. With 84% odds of a December hike and the 10Y near 5%, gold’s real competitor isn’t fear, it’s yield. Oil is pricing the war. Gold is pricing the Fed. Right now the Fed is winning. NFA.$XAU ☀️ Crypto & Financial Markets – Morning Briefing | October 30 Overnight Market Highlights: ① $BNB Security Incident: Binance has confirmed a theft involving one of its hot wallets, with further details still awaited. ② US Economic Data: Q3 US GDP annualized growth came in at 3.4%, stronger than both Q2 and market expectations. September PCE inflation reached 3.6% year-over-year, while core PCE stood at 3.1%, highlighting the combination of solid economic growth and persistent inflation. ③ ECB U$BTC Binance incident freezes $2.54 billion, yet BTC drops to 77,000! How many more hidden risks are there?
This morning's news is really intense: Binance is investigating a potential security incident, with related assets frozen totaling $2.54 billion!
Don't rush to shout "2.54 billion stolen." Freezing assets does not equal final loss; institutions like Tether and Circle participated in the asset freeze. Binance temporarily suspended deposits and withdrawals, stating user funds are safe; Zhao Changpeng said it looks like a hacker attack.
Now look at $BTC. CoinGlass snapshot this morning was about $77,138, down 4.63% in 24 hours. More strikingly, the 24-hour BTC contract forced liquidations were about $475 million, with open interest still around $53.05 billion; contract volume about $107.1 billion, spot about $8.08 billion.
This is the contradiction I care about more: the official side is trying to control the situation, but the contract market is still highly volatile. Note, frozen assets are not the liquidation amount, nor do they prove that the $475 million forced liquidations were all caused by this event.
My judgment: short-term bearish bias, but do not chase shorts at this level. If withdrawals resume and BTC reclaims $80,000, the bearish logic must be reassessed; if security issues persist and price continues to break down, beware of a secondary crash.
Which scenario are you betting on: a quick rebound after official clarification, or a second wave of sell-off triggered by a crisis of confidence? #美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高 "A Certain Anre Wallet Emptied, Losing $6 Billion"
This morning upon waking up, a shocking major incident happened with a certain Anre next door. Data captured by on-chain detectives shows that eight public chain hot wallets were completely emptied, with the total outflow reaching a staggering $6 billion.
The most outrageous operation was just after 5 a.m., when 200 million stablecoins were transferred out. The hacker completed the splitting and transfer within 72 seconds, then quickly swapped the coins on decentralized exchanges to launder them.
Currently, the founder states that an emergency investigation into the anomaly is underway, and the entire network is closely monitoring whether the cold-hot separation defense line has truly held. $BTC $UNITREE Yushu-style contracts, even the cost-effectiveness of short selling in the big A market is higher than doing contracts here. The annualized fees are in the thousands, the price anchor has deviated so much that the horses have all fled, the capacity is small, and there are no real benefits. It's only suitable for small funds to come here and take a gamble 如果昨晚那两根上影线只是试探，那么接下来要盯的就不是方向，而是杠杆往哪边挤。 BTC 四次上攻 Vegas 通道都被压回，这到底是空头最后一次体面，还是多头在蓄力？ 早上翻 4 小时图的时候，我第一反应不是兴奋，是有点警觉。BTC 价格上方的 Vegas 通道开始换位，这通常意味着趋势结构在悄悄松动，但昨夜两次冲关都被打下来，说明上方还压着一层真实的卖盘。这种位置最容易被误读成"突破在即"，可我更愿意看衍生品那边：永续的未平仓量没明显退，资金费率也没被压到极端，多头是在扛，不是在追。扛着的仓位遇到假突破，清算会比想象中快。 这也是我这两天偏谨慎偏多的原因。若真能第三次顶上去并站稳通道上沿，追多的成本其实比现在低，因为结构确认后空头回补会替你把价格推一段；反过来，如果再次被摁回，下面那批高杠杆多头就是第一波燃料，回踩会比前两次更深。我在 MSTR 上先放了一笔，本质是拿股票端的 beta 去换 BTC 突破的期权感，而不是赌今晚就飞。 ETH 这边节奏明显慢半拍，离 Vegas 通道还有距离，像在趋势线下方慢慢磨。它现在的角色更像滞后补涨的备选，而不是领涨的旗手。2220 到 2270 "Not your keys, not your coins" — this phrase flooded the screens again today during the Binance incident.
SAFU was shouted countless times, and this time many people panicked.
Is this Binance hacking incident the death knell for centralized exchanges?$AT $APR Damn, APR's shakeout this round is really fierce. I've been watching the 0.0572 level for a long time; the candlesticks show volume contraction and sideways movement. The dog whales are clearly accumulating quietly. From a pure technical perspective, the daily-level bullish divergence has already appeared, and the smart money's quiet entry is very obvious. No rush, wait for the signal, gradually build positions around 0.0572, keep position size under 20%, and set stop loss below 0.052. Don't chase the highs; wait for a pullback confirmation before acting. If you want to follow, check the real-time order book on the token market card below, don't just listen to me shouting.📉
The above is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency is highly volatile; please make decisions cautiously.
👇👇👇Nearly 50 million $HYPE tokens were burned, accounting for 4.99% of the total supply. This is not a small matter. Burning is burning; the supply side has genuinely decreased.
There’s also significant activity on the ETH side. BlackRock deposited nearly $200 million worth of ETH into Coinbase over two days, and an OG wallet that had been dormant for three years suddenly woke up, depositing 2,119 ETH directly. When an old wallet like this moves, my first thought is—are they preparing to sell? Not necessarily, but it’s worth keeping an eye on.
On the $BTC side, about $11 billion worth of options expire on October 30, and with the U.S. midterm elections approaching, volatility is very likely to be high. Australia is tightening regulations on prediction markets, and Polymarket has reportedly been blocked. Also, an address deposited 2,000 $XAUT to Binance, which might result in a loss if sold at the current price.
In the end, it still comes down to this: whether money flows in or out, and whether $BTC can hold its key positions. Until these two points are clear, everything else is just noise. If it weren't for Binance being hacked in the early morning, would the price not have dropped? Personally, I think it might not have dropped that much, but most likely it still would have.
First, the US stock indices (S&P 500, Nasdaq) continue to decline, and many investors will prioritize hedging; even if they don't sell crypto, they hedge. Second, the potential risks mentioned repeatedly in this week's live streams—the weekly chart still doesn't meet reversal criteria, so there's a high probability it will go down further to form a base before there's a chance for better bullish conditions.
Looking forward to November, always respect the market, and make plans that you can execute well within your capabilities! $ETH Gold Morning Analysis for October 30:
Last night, with the release of PCE and GDP data, inflation stickiness became evident and economic resilience exceeded expectations. Market expectations for rate hikes further intensified, leading to a simultaneous strengthening of the US dollar and US Treasury yields, putting pressure on gold prices to decline. Coupled with the Fed's previously hawkish stance, short-term bulls are clearly under pressure.
After a brief surge in the early session, prices quickly weakened. From the one-minute Bollinger Bands structure, it is clear that after touching the upper band, upward momentum was insufficient, unable to sustain the rally, and prices directly reversed downward, showing weak short-term bullish attacks.
Trading suggestion: Short in the 4000-4020 range, target 3960; if broken, continue to look down near 3880.$ETH 走势偏跌 主判断 优先推演先有反弹但难越过急跌后反弹高点，随后跌破最新一小时低点，再试最新日线低点。日线回升已被明显收跌打断，一小时反弹高处连续降低，当前下跌证据更强。 时间范围：数据截点后 12 小时 · 信心：中（非统计概率） 重点观察 • 最新一小时低点：2247.03 • 急跌后反弹高点：2293.22 事前阶段目标 最新日线低点：2230.41 复核口径：从群内完整送达后开始，先出现主推演的收盘确认，再在更晚的十五分钟收盘达到该目标；原有效期内先失效则不算兑现。仅核验价格路径，不代表全部结构或因果解释正确，也不是交易收益。 周线与日线的大方向 周线：周线近期仍偏跌。最近连续收跌，高点、低点和收盘逐周降低，最新完整周线收在整周偏低处。此前上涨后的回落仍未结束，最近日线短暂回升没有改变这一背景。 日线：日线由短暂回升转回偏跌。最新日线高点低于前日，低点明显下移，大幅收跌并收在最近完整周线低点下方。此前连续抬高低点的回升已被打断，当前优先考虑下跌延续，而不是沿用震荡判断。 当天的盘面走势 日内偏跌，反弹尚未扭转下行。四小时回升未越过此前高处，随后明显收跌并创出近期新低。一【Stolen 5.9 billion, why did it only drop 5%?】$BTC $ETH #Railway安全事件波及多链资产安全
In the past decade, there have been 6 exchange thefts, ranging from 40 million to 5.9 billion, a span of over 100 times, but the drop on the day was almost always between 4%–20%.
Mt.Gox lost 450 million → BTC -10%, followed by a two-year bear market
Bitfinex lost 70 million → BTC once dropped -20%, recovered in a few days
Bybit lost 1.5 billion → ETH -4%, recovered within a week
This time lost 5.9 billion → BTC -5.2%, BNB -9.9%, ETH -6.7%
So the market pricing has never been about "how much was lost," but rather "whether the funds can still be redeemed."
There are three paths:
A｜Redemption collapse (Mt.Gox type) — continuous decline
B｜Short-term dip then recovery (Bybit type) — back to normal within a week
C｜Systemic risk — weak rebound, range-bound decline
Look at three checkpoints:
① Whether full redemption is possible — He Yi has promised full coverage
② How long withdrawal takes to resume — over 48 hours, trust repair slows down
③ Is there a second affected party — Bybit / KuCoin / Lido have all denied involvement
Passing the first two leads to path B; failure at any leads to path A. Stuck in the middle is path C.
The risk may not be the 5.9 billion itself, but the panic itself #Strategy财报前瞻: BTC book gains rebound sharply Strategy earnings preview, book gains rebound with BTC is just an accounting illusion, not an improvement in operating profit. Under the new accounting standards, unrealized gains on holdings are directly included in the financial report; this gain is a paper number without real cash flow. The market is easily attracted by unrealized gains, but the core focus is not profitability, but whether the company will use the book recovery to continue issuing shares to raise funds and increase coin holdings. Debt pressure and preferred stock dividend costs still exist. Once BTC price turns down, huge unrealized gains will quickly be given back. Essentially, it is a leveraged Bitcoin ETF, and the financial report is just a mirror of BTC price. This round of rebound repairs the balance sheet, which is beneficial for short-term financing and coin purchases, but the risk is highly concentrated on the coin price. Book unrealized gains should not be mistaken for a strengthening of the company's fundamentals. The $1.45 billion Bitcoin theft that cannot be recovered confirms Professor Gu's prophecy of Bitcoin going to zero is credible, accelerating the arrival of quantum computer risks analysis
1. Two warnings brought by the event itself (custody risk is an explicit pain point)
1. Even huge assets, as long as private keys are entrusted to third parties such as platforms or mining pools, face the risk of theft and difficulty in asset recovery. Hackers attack the key management system and server permissions, not the Bitcoin blockchain ledger itself. The Bitcoin network continues to produce blocks and the ledger is immutable; only the custodian's internal control defenses have failed. Such major cases repeatedly occur, continuously shattering the shallow consensus that "Bitcoin is secure digital gold," making the market realize that the security of daily BTC holdings largely depends on centralized institutions rather than the chain itself.
2. Large asset thefts and the difficulty of tracking and recovering expose the inherent traceability shortcomings of crypto assets. Once hackers complete coin mixing and transfers, the probability of fund recovery is very low. Continuous major theft incidents deepen market doubts about the entire Bitcoin ecosystem's security system, laying an emotional foundation for the long-term quantum risk narrative.
2. Why many people associate this incident with Professor Gu's zero prophecy and quantum risks
1. Logical connection: Frequent custody security incidents make the market start to reflect that Bitcoin's security is layered. Currently, the custody layer keeps having incidents, and in the long term, there is an even more fatal hidden risk in the underlying cryptography.
One of Professor Gu's core arguments is that Bitcoin's underlying elliptic curve cryptography has a fatal quantum vulnerability, making network-wide upgrades extremely difficult, and the long-term value foundation unstable. Consecutive large thefts lead some traders to believe: with continuous exposure of upper-layer security vulnerabilities and an underlying quantum time bomb, the dual risks accumulate, and the zero prediction logic is gradually being realized.
2. Amplification of market sentiment: Ordinary investors find it hard to distinguish between "platform wallet theft" and "cryptographic algorithm quantum cracking." Under panic, these two risks are merged in interpretation: Bitcoin's security system is full of weaknesses; today exchanges and mining pools are hacked, and in the future, when fault-tolerant quantum computers mature, they will directly break the underlying signatures, allowing massive BTC assets with exposed public keys to be stolen directly. At that time, even self-custodied cold wallets will no longer be safe.
3. Views from Sun Yuchen and others continue to reinforce this main line: AI accelerates quantum algorithm iteration and fault-tolerant quantum routes, continuously compressing the window for Bitcoin to complete post-quantum upgrades. Custody incidents act as repeated rehearsals, training the market's panic sensitivity to "BTC asset theft risk."
3. Key dialectic: This event cannot directly prove Professor Gu's zero prophecy is credible; there is an essential gap between the two
1. The attack targets are completely different
This hacker attack: breaches human management, servers, and hot wallet permissions, belonging to traditional network security issues solvable by classical computers;
Quantum computer threat: uses Shor's algorithm to directly solve the ECDSA elliptic curve mathematical problem, deriving private keys from the cryptographic root, a protocol-level destructive risk.
Historically, multiple billion-level thefts like Mt.Gox and Bybit occurred, yet the Bitcoin network continued normal operation, consensus repaired, and prices rebounded. Custody thefts are industry normal black swan events, not equal to the underlying cryptography becoming invalid.
2. Zero is an extreme conclusion requiring multiple conditions simultaneously
To go to zero requires: ① Large-scale fault-tolerant quantum computers capable of stably breaking ECDSA; ② Bitcoin community, miners, nodes, and exchanges fail to reach consensus and cannot complete post-quantum upgrades; ③ Massive exposed public key assets are centrally stolen; ④ Institutional funds continuously and strategically withdraw, and consensus completely collapses.
Relying solely on exchange/mining pool theft only satisfies negative sentiment and cannot trigger the collapse of underlying cryptography.
3. Bitcoin is not without countermeasures
The Bitcoin community already has multiple post-quantum signature upgrade BIP proposals, but governance coordination is very difficult. If a soft fork upgrade is completed before practical quantum computers arrive, the underlying cryptographic risk can be resolved.
4. The real market impact of this main line: capital preference will accelerate switching
1. Continuous security incidents plus long-term quantum narratives resonate, causing long-term capital allocation to stratify: some completely leave the crypto track, turning to gold and government bonds; others stay in the track, prioritizing native quantum-resistant layers based on hash assumptions and flexible iterative signatures with account abstraction (such as STRK).
2. Valuation logic changes: future capital evaluation of a public chain will no longer only consider liquidity and ecosystem TVL; the weight of underlying cryptographic security will continue to rise. BTC's "digital gold premium" will remain under pressure, and valuation centers will continuously decline.
3. Short-term market: such major cases easily trigger panic selling and cascading liquidations, quickly driving BTC deep down; but as long as the underlying protocol is not broken, after a big drop there is still the possibility of consensus repair and rebound, not a one-step zero.
5. Summary in one sentence
The $1.45 billion theft incident is a strong warning of major risks in the crypto custody system, amplifying market anxiety about security vulnerabilities and making Professor Gu's zero view easier to be accepted and spread; but it itself is not a quantum attack and cannot serve as empirical evidence that "Bitcoin's underlying cryptography is about to fail and the zero prophecy is fulfilled." The truly decisive watershed is whether fault-tolerant quantum computers can stably run Shor's algorithm and whether Bitcoin can complete post-quantum upgrades within the window period.Binance "hacked" video goes viral, withdrawal gates closed — are you still asking if it's time to buy the dip?
Hot wallet abnormal outflow at midnight, on-chain estimates range from $2.5 billion to $5.8 billion, all deposits and withdrawals halted, USDT/USDC quickly froze over two billion.
The market immediately voted with its feet: BTC smashed through 81,000, directly probing 76,000, BNB flash crashed, DeFi chain liquidations in succession!
Additionally, latest data shows US 10-year Treasury yield dropped 8.5 basis points to a seven-week low of 4.902%, 2-year Treasury yield dropped 8.7 basis points to a seven-week low of 4.5648%.
Therefore, our trading suggestions are as follows:
⏳️BTC: short at 78,100-78,600, target 76,000, break below watch 75,000
⏳️ETH: short at 2,230-2,250, target 2,170, break below watch 2,000
So with these buffs stacking, we expect another wave of decline! Let's watch together! $BTC $ETH On October 29, Binance confirmed it is investigating a potential security issue. Industry companies have frozen approximately 2.54 billion USD in assets related to suspicious transactions.
What needs to be clarified:
2.54 billion USD is the amount of assets frozen, which does not mean that all of that money has been stolen.
Binance states that customer assets remain safe.
The cause and the final scale of the damage still need to be verified. $BTC 走势偏跌 主判断 优先看反弹受限于末根一小时高点，随后跌过最新日线低点，向前期强反弹日低点延伸。关键理由是日线回升已被跌回，四小时明显低收，一小时反弹高点继续降低。 时间范围：数据截点后 12 小时 · 信心：中（非统计概率） 重点观察 • 最新日线低点：77871.2 • 末根一小时高点：78997.1 事前阶段目标 前期强反弹日低点：76923 复核口径：从群内完整送达后开始，先出现主推演的收盘确认，再在更晚的十五分钟收盘达到该目标；原有效期内先失效则不算兑现。仅核验价格路径，不代表全部结构或因果解释正确，也不是交易收益。 周线与日线的大方向 周线：周线偏跌，是此前上涨后的回落。最近连续收跌且低点下降；最新完整周线虽越过前周高点，最终仍收在较低处。后续最新日线已收在最近完整周低点下方，但尚不能称为周线收盘跌破。 日线：日线转为偏跌，前两天的回升已被最新大阴线全部跌回。最新一天先越过前日高点，随后收在前日低点和最近完整周低点下方，并接近最新日线低点。上冲没有保持，今天优先观察下跌是否延续。 当天的盘面走势 日内优先看下跌延续。四小时上冲后连续收跌，末根跌穿此前整理低处，并接#Strategy财报前瞻：BTC账面收益大幅反弹 1The bulls have been completely defeated, basically wiped out, with $1.49 billion evaporated. The total open positions at the peak of the entire market were 141 billion, and now only 136.2 billion remain. Could this be related to the cancellation of spot leverage? I think it has something to do with it.40x leverage reminds me of the tension of watching for margin call notifications in the futures market: the direction hasn't been disproven yet, but the account can't hold on. This time, I monitored a newly opened $BTC long position in a wallet, with a nominal value of about $500,500.
I'm more concerned whether this position has preset exit rules. Roughly calculated at 40x, the initial margin is only about 2.5% of the nominal position; a reverse fluctuation of about 2.5% could wipe out this margin portion; actual forced liquidation also depends on margin mode and maintenance margin requirements, so it can't be equated directly. With leverage this high, even if the direction is judged correctly, it might not last until realization.
Traditional commodity futures have market closures, but crypto markets trade 24/7. I think risk control can't wait for people to wake up to handle it. For those who have also transitioned from traditional markets, when adapting to 24/7 trading, is it harder to change your habit of watching the market constantly, or to set exit conditions in advance?$TRUMP Three Major Reasons for the Sharp Drop of Trump Coin
1. Team-Linked Wallets Transferring to Exchanges, Market Fears Sell-Off
This is a recent negative factor worth close attention.
On October 7, CoinMarketCap reported that wallets linked to the team cumulatively transferred about 81.87 million TRUMP to exchanges, involving platforms such as Binance and OKX.
Note: Transferring to exchanges does not mean the coins have been sold yet, but the market worries about subsequent selling pressure.
2. Continuous Unlocking, Increase in Circulating Supply
One of the biggest structural problems of Trump Coin is token allocation.
Currently
* Total supply: about 1 billion.
* Circulating supply: about 282 million.
* A large amount of tokens have not yet entered circulation.
* Next unlocking: November 18, 2026.
* Expected unlocking: about 28.69 million.
This batch accounts for about 2.9% of the total supply.
Moreover, the next batch to be unlocked belongs entirely to insiders.
3. Decoupling of Trump’s Political Expectations and Coin Price
Previously, market speculation on Trump Coin mainly came from:
* Trump’s personal influence.
* Expectations of U.S. cryptocurrency policies.
* Trump-related political activities.
* Events such as large holder dinners.
But the problem is that political influence does not necessarily mean sustained growth in token demand.
When the market realizes the lack of new funds and ongoing application scenarios, speculative capital may withdraw. My current mindset, to put it nicely, is slowly recovering my losses; to be honest, I'm a bit afraid of taking a wrong turn again. Seeing the word "panic" still makes my heart tighten, but I'm also practicing: don't carry the market's emotions all on yourself.
According to Alternative.me data, today's crypto fear and greed index dropped to 30, whereas yesterday it was 51, a "neutral state," and now it has shifted to a "panic state." The label changed within a day, which really reminds me how unstable emotional security is.
My judgment is that this news means more of a stress test for ordinary people rather than a notification of a bargain. The index describes market sentiment; the source doesn't provide valuation basis, so you can't just assume it's a good deal because of "panic." When emotions turn clearly cold, people tend to rush decisions; if you don't have a plan to cope, following the mood on the spot can easily turn anxiety into action.
The lesson I want to remember is: recovering losses can't rely on seeking reassurance from the market every day. Rather than guessing tomorrow's numbers, I should figure out what level of volatility will affect my life.
For friends still on the road to recovery, don't lose heart even if you go slow 💪 How have you been lately? The index dropped from 51 to 30; what bothers you most, account fluctuations or the urge to keep checking the market repeatedly?The market is falling but it’s surging, $PARTI is pulling up against the trend, so I opened a small short position 👊
Today the market is all red, but this one went straight from 0.031 to 0.064, now at 0.058, up 67 points against the trend. Looking at the 15-minute chart, it made a strong surge at dawn and then consolidated at a high level. After hitting 0.06408 it couldn’t go higher, now it’s broken below the short-term moving average, and the MACD has formed a death cross. Volume is 2.1 billion, turnover 123 million, after the volume spike to push it higher, the volume is clearly lagging now. STOCHRSI dropped to 22, showing clear signs of bulls running out of steam.
The market is falling, and it’s pulling hard against the trend at this time. Either there’s some big news we don’t know about, or the whales are using the chaos to pump and dump. Definitely not daring to chase longs now, it’s been consolidating at a high level for so long, a correction could come at any time.
I opened a small short position, betting that if the market crashes, it will dive with it. Stop loss set above 0.062, position size is small. This kind of counter-trend monster coin can only be traded quickly in and out.
Any brothers in the comments think it can keep rising? Or do you think a correction is due? 🙈#波动雷达：币种异动观察 📊 In-depth Review: Binance Hack Incident, Why Is the Selling Pressure on $BTC Almost Zero?
Regarding the Binance hack, Coinkarma founder Benson Sun provided a very counterintuitive on-chain data analysis.
The public expectation was massive selling pressure, but the actual market logic might be completely the opposite.
Here are some key points:
1. Frozen and Remaining Assets
The official confirmation is that about $2.5 billion (half of the total) has been frozen, with the remainder mainly in BTC and ETH.
2. BTC: Almost No Short-term Selling Pressure, Possibly Even Buying Pressure
The stolen BTC is worth over a billion dollars, but due to the lack of deep pools like Tornado Cash, the related addresses are flagged industry-wide. Based on past cases, liquidation is extremely difficult and takes years.
More importantly, if Binance uses the SAFU fund to compensate and replenish BTC, it would actually create substantial buying pressure in the market.
3. ETH: The Real Potential Selling Pressure
A large amount of ERC-20 tokens have been converted into $ETH and then entered Tornado Cash, making tracking difficult.
The real short-term market selling pressure likely comes from this billion-dollar scale of ETH.
Conclusion:
In a black swan event, emotions often amplify panic. But considering the difficulty of on-chain tracking and institutional replenishment expectations, the underlying support for BTC is actually stronger, while ETH and the ERC-20 ecosystem face real capital outflow pressure in this wave. Current BTC Market Highlights
Price is roughly fluctuating around $80,000–$81,500.
Short-term rebound faces resistance near $81,500–$81,900.
Key support below is at $79,400–$80,000; if volume-driven break occurs, the next target could be $78,000–$79,000.
Stronger resistance above lies at $82,500–$83,000, and the long-term holder cost zone near $85,000.
On the macro side, the Federal Reserve maintains interest rates unchanged, but there is still an expectation of a rate hike in December. U.S. Treasury yields remain high, putting pressure on risk assets.
Long Position Strategy
If price pulls back to around $79,500–$79,800 and shows clear signs of stopping the decline, a light long position can be tried; if it breaks below $79,400, it indicates support failure and long entries should be stopped.
Short Position Strategy
If the rebound cannot hold near $81,500–$81,700, a light short position can be tried; if price climbs back above $82,000, the risk of short positions will significantly increase.
Situations to Watch
Volume-driven break below $79,400 may give bears the advantage.
Volume-driven rise above $82,000–$82,500 could signal short-term strength.
Before breaking through $85,000, there is considerable resistance from trapped positions above, making chasing longs risky.
Cryptocurrency leveraged trading carries high risk; the above is only directional reference based on current market information and does not constitute investment advice. It is recommended to strictly control position size, set stop losses, and avoid heavy positions, full exposure, and chasing rallies or panic selling. Awesome, woke up and the neighbor immediately suspended withdrawals due to theft 😅6666#Strategy Earnings Preview: BTC Book Profits Rebound Sharply Seventy-nine million staked before the announcement, betting that no one will sell first
Before the FOMC announcement, one address put seventy-nine million dollars into long positions.
$BTC accounts for seventy-two million five hundred thousand, $ZEC accounts for six million two hundred thousand.
Where did this money come from:
Both positions were opened with borrowed money, not fully bought with spot.
Unrealized profits are close to one million, indicating the price did rise after opening the positions.
How this number is calculated:
Seventy-nine million plus is the nominal value of the positions, not the principal.
Based on common leverage multiples, the actual cash only accounts for part of it.
If the price moves against the position slightly, the loss is limited to the principal portion.
Leveraged long positions earn floating profits and bear the liquidation line.
At the moment the announcement comes out, the direction is not determined by the position holders.
#美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高
#$BTC $ZEC $SNDK earnings exceeded expectations but still fell; everyone had too high expectations for the earnings report
Support and resistance: Currently testing the 24-hour low support at 1261.6; if broken, look down to 1250-1200. Dense resistance above: short-term resistance at 1278 (EMA8), then 1291 (EMA20), strong resistance at 1313-1317 (EMA50 and SuperTrend red line overlap zone).
Trading direction: The overall trend is very weak (moving averages in bearish alignment), but RSI has fallen into the 30 oversold zone, MACD green bars are shortening, and a "B" buy signal has appeared on the chart, indicating a short-term technical rebound demand. Strategy: do not chase shorts, stay cautious and observe the whole market or wait for a rebound to 1278-1291 to meet resistance before shorting; aggressive traders can lightly buy above 1261.6 to bet on a rebound with a strict stop loss.
Why did it fall despite good earnings:
1. Expectations were too high: guidance exceeded expectations but did not "crush" them; the market "buys expectations and sells the facts."
2. Sentiment drag: Alphabet's plunge triggered concerns about AI capital expenditure, combined with Samsung's earnings missing expectations, leading to systemic selling in the storage sector.
3. Structural concerns: decline in consumer business overshadowed the halo of data centers, funds took profits on the good news.
#闪迪存储业务高增长能否延续？ $HYPE
In Big Brother Maji's Hyperliquid account, there is now only $1.5 left.
This morning I saw a breaking news flash that he was liquidated 8 times in 6 hours. Let's review this downhill path: a year ago he earned over 44 million on Hyperliquid, in August this year he rolled 150,000 up to 12.25 million, on October 15th he was liquidated overnight down to just over 20,000, on the 27th he had 4,517 left, and today only 1.5. In between, he also sold mutant apes at a loss to raise margin, selling over 60 NFTs in half a year and losing more than 1,000 ETH.
Ironically, on the platform where he was liquidated, HYPE rose 13% against the trend today. On a day when the whole network saw $1.1 billion liquidated in 24 hours, ETH dropped below 2200, and Binance hot wallets were hacked in a bloodbath, HYPE surged from around 80 to 97, now fluctuating at 91, with a volatility of nearly 20 points.
The news is that Druckenmiller tweeted he invested in trade[XYZ], plus ICE is launching Hyperliquid perpetual contracts in the US, the institutional narrative directly pushed the platform token to be the strongest on the market.
The platform token rises, the star trader goes to zero, on the same day, on the same platform, it's not contradictory at all—the casino never fears someone losing money, it only fears the table closing.
#美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高