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Trump concept coins dropped about 7% in one day, while the DeFi index rose about 5%.
The election results are in; it's not the "whole market" that's rising, but a shift in sectors.
After the Democrats took control of Congress, BTC briefly dropped to about 75,600, then pulled back to about 78,300. The market looks green, but the contracts are more painful: trading volume rose about 27%, open interest only rose about 3%—mostly position flipping, not fresh capital entering aggressively. The weekly options volatility dropped from about 41% to about 34%, and the pre-election "insurance buying" is cooling off.
Retail investors, don't rush to treat the rebound as a trend confirmation. Take away these three steps:
1) Check if open interest keeps up with price (price rises without OI support tend to be false)
2) Distinguish who's rising: DeFi/ETH-related vs political concept coins, don't chase both mixed
3) Watch Friday's non-farm payrolls—election drama is over, macro data is the next trigger
The election narrative will be noisy for a few days, but what really matters is: first distinguish between "position rotation" or "position increase." Is your current position following the narrative or the capital?
$BTC $ETH #crypto market $AMD just swallowed a cold meal, watching AMD's 15-minute chart break through the 500 mark from 534, with MACD forming a high-level death cross, chilling the heart halfway. The earnings report clearly exceeded expectations in both revenue and profit, so why is it moving like this?
The problem lies in the details. The Q4 gross margin guidance is slightly low, and more critically, to stockpile Helios, free cash flow plummeted from 1.5 billion to 554 million. At a high valuation of 125 times P/E, the market demands "perfection," and the crack in cash flow directly triggers a trust crisis.
Technically, the moving averages above are like a mountain pressing down, and around 490 below is a dense area of bearish options, making the short-term outlook extremely dangerous. We just suffered losses catching falling knives on AKE, so don't blindly bottom-fish. Wait for solid Helios shipment data, stabilize on the right side, then get on board. For now, watch the show to stay safe! $AMD
#AMD数据中心收入近翻倍，营收及指引均超预期 Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？ This hot topic reflects the market's scrutiny of capital flows in the crypto ecosystem. As SOXL is a highly volatile asset, current capital sentiment is clearly cautious. My overall judgment is short-term pressure, with a rebound needing sentiment recovery.
From the perspective of capital and positions, the 24-hour trading volume is 15,623,000. Although the price rose 2.9% to 73.92, the buy-sell ratio in the top 10 order book levels is only 0.34, with sell orders at 9,591 outweighing buy orders at 3,225, showing a clear seller-dominated pattern; the funding rate of 0.0321% indicates longs are still paying a premium. The open interest of 859,000 coin-margined contracts, combined with a downward trend on both the 1-hour and 4-hour charts, and a 31.27% drop from the 4-hour high, indicates leveraged longs are being gradually squeezed out.
In terms of operation, aggressive traders can wait for a rebound near 76.85 to lightly short, with a stop loss at 79.45 and a target of 68.35; if the price pulls back to 66.52 and stabilizes, one can reverse to a short-term long, with a stop loss at 65.13 and a target of 71.28. Position size should be controlled within 20%, and it is crucial not to hold positions during the double downward trend.
——This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you smooth trading.——
$SOXL#Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？
#Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？
$SOXL $CXMT current price is $6.577, up 11.9% in 24 hours. The underlying stock Changxin Technology closed today at ¥44.09, up 13.63%, with a market cap of ¥2.99 trillion, topping the Greater China region (Phoenix Finance). But three numbers are more important.
① Discount 0.5%: Based on 6.6715, the underlying stock equals $6.61, while the perpetual contract at $6.577 is actually half a cent cheaper.
② A-shares closed at 15:00, perpetual contracts did not stop: the 15:00 candle closed at 6.509, now 6.577, rising 1.05% after close—this overnight risk no one bears for you.
③ No leveraged longs taking over: at 13:00 and 14:00, two 1H candles saw volume expand to $2.75 million and $5.2 million (4x and 7.5x), open interest only rose from 3.71 million to 3.76 million; funding rates for four periods dropped 0.116%→0.054%→0.034%→0, long position cost zeroed out.
Wallet: OKX has no CXMT spot pair, only a 20x perpetual contract entry, with 24-hour volume of $19.3 million and open interest only 3.79 million; the 20-level order book has just $40,000, so liquidation slippage is the cost. The buyback cap was raised to 5 billion, setting a record on the STAR Market; HBM3E samples have been sent, but Morningstar warns of cyclical risks.
Do you think this is the start of a super cycle or the last leg?看着ETH在2300下面反复磨，真的有点心累🌙 是不是很多人也在这个位置被来回甩过？ 前两天我就是那个把七成仓位压在ETH上、等它突破2300的人。结果呢，曲线横着走，插针倒是来得勤快，账户先亏了15%。说不难受是假的，但冷静下来复盘，我发现这波真正值得看的不是"ETH怎么还不涨"，而是市场在重新给事件定价。 2300这个位置本身没变，变的是围绕它的预期。之前大家把突破当成大概率，仓位提前压上去，等于把一部分上涨空间先吃掉了。现在价格反复磨，其实是在消化这批提前进场的筹码。多头逻辑还在：ETH作为风险偏好回升时的核心资产，一旦真突破，空头回补加上追涨盘，弹性会很大。但风险也明摆着——预期被提前计价之后，如果迟迟等不到催化，耐心会先于价格崩掉，杠杆仓位被磨出局，反而给下方制造压力。 这个传导会往下走。ETH横着，山寨就更难拿到溢出资金，短线交易节奏从"追突破"变成"等确认"，风险偏好是在收缩而不是扩散。BTC那边相对稳，说明钱没有离场，只是变得更挑剔了。这层变化很多人容易忽略：不是没钱，是钱不愿意在不确定的位置先动手。 所以我现在的判断是，2300没站稳之前，重仓等突破性价比不高，突破Let's talk about NEAR ($NEAR) tonight.
As of 20:08 Beijing time on November 4, NEAR is trending on CoinGecko's hot search list. OKX spot price is about $4.05, up about 4.8% in 24h, with a total network transaction volume of about $698 million and a market cap of about $5.3 billion.
The hype comes from inflation reduction: On November 2, House of Stake passed HSP-029 with over 99.9% approval. The maximum annual issuance rate will be reduced from 2.5% to 1.6% over 24 months, and daily issuance will drop from about 89,500 to about 57,300 tokens.
My view: Less dilution is definitely a good thing, but it still needs to pass the Security Council review, a 90-day buffer period, and validator upgrades. The first reduction will most likely happen in early 2027. The current price increase is based on expectations. I am more concerned whether NEAR Intents cross-chain transactions can support real transaction fees—that is the real confidence.
$NEAR$SOL $BTC 🔥 The dust has settled! The old man lost, the Democrats took both chambers, uncertainty is resolved, funds are starting to flow in, but do not mistake the rebound for a bull market
$BTC $ETH $CRCL
The election suspense that lasted for many days has finally been resolved, no more prolonged disputes and tug-of-war. The market's biggest fear, uncertainty, has been directly eliminated, and funds have chosen to enter first: Bitcoin surged to 78,549, ETH reached 2,330, with a short-term increase of nearly 3%, and gold returned above 4,000; MSTR closed up 3.72% last night, Circle rose 4.36%, clearly showing capital inflow in the market.
But warming up does not equal a trend reversal. This rally is essentially an emotional recovery after clearing uncertainty plus a short-term short squeeze. The bullish momentum has been rapidly exhausted. The 4-hour indicators have entered the overbought zone, and the 15-minute cycle shows a bearish divergence. The price seems strong, but the incremental buying below has long been unable to keep up. The short squeeze lacks follow-through and can easily dissipate quickly.
There are still two major tests to watch:
✅ Tonight's Circle earnings report: As a core stablecoin sector stock, it will show whether the stablecoin narrative can translate into real profits, directly affecting capital preference in the stablecoin sector;
✅ Friday's non-farm payroll data is still lurking ahead, which is the next major variable in this round of the market and a potential risk point.
My judgment: Short-term emotional warming is a fact, but one bullish candle does not mean a bull market. Bitcoin must firmly hold the 78,000–79,000 range to be considered truly stabilized; before that, it can only be defined as news-driven.$ETH $BTC 🔥 The dust has settled! Trump lost, Democrats took both chambers, uncertainty is resolved, funds are starting to flow in, but don't mistake the rebound for a bull market
$BTC $ETH $CRCL
The election suspense that lasted for days has finally been resolved, no more prolonged disputes and stalemates. The market's biggest fear—uncertainty—has been directly eliminated, and funds are choosing to enter first: Bitcoin surged to 78,549, ETH reached 2,330, with a short-term increase of nearly 3%, and gold returned above 4,000; MSTR closed up 3.72% last night, Circle rose 4.36%, clearly showing capital inflow on the market.
But warming up does not equal a trend reversal. This rally is essentially an emotional recovery after clearing uncertainty plus a short-term short squeeze. The bullish momentum has already been rapidly exhausted. The 4-hour indicators have entered the overbought zone, and the 15-minute cycle shows a bearish divergence. Although the price looks strong, incremental buying from below has long been insufficient. The short squeeze lacks follow-through and can easily dissipate quickly.
There are still two major tests to watch:
✅ Circle's earnings report tonight: As a core player in the stablecoin sector, it will show whether the stablecoin narrative can translate into real profits, directly affecting capital preference in the stablecoin sector;
✅ Friday's non-farm payroll data is still looming ahead, which is the next major variable in this round of the market and a potential risk point.
My judgment: Short-term emotional warming is a fact, but one bullish candle does not mean a bull market. Bitcoin must firmly hold the 78,000–79,000 range to be considered truly stabilized; before that, it can only be defined as news-driven.#CFTC首次放行美国个股永续期货
"US Stock Perpetual Futures Approved, Castle Securities Files Lawsuit"
CFTC has just approved US stock perpetual futures, with the first batch being Nadex's filings for Apple, Nvidia, and Tesla, cash-settled and with no expiration date.
Now the traditional market makers can't sit still.
Cboe and Citadel teamed up the same day to sue the regulators, fiercely challenging the product's regulatory classification. Traditional Wall Street has enjoyed decades of options expiration day profits, but now it looks like the crypto world's perpetual model is about to disrupt that. $BTC Before you panic sell or bottom-fish, here’s what you need to know:
1. Nasdaq futures fell 1.35% overnight amid the Texas governor race. Futures. Light trading. 2 AM.
2. Fear: A new governor in the state "freezes" data center construction. What the governor alone can do: pick grid regulators (must be confirmed by Texas Senate), push grid operators, veto bills.
3. What requires the legislature: cancel data center tax incentives, rewrite grid laws, any moratoriums. Earliest to become law: around September 2027.
4. Texas had already started squeezing data centers before tonight. Grid access for large new loads was suspended months ago.
5. SpaceX’s launch licenses are federal, not Texas.
6. xAI’s computing resources are in Tennessee and Mississippi. Both red states. Not Texas.
7. Congress is very likely to overturn this too. A blue Congress can hold hearings on SpaceX. Without presidential signature, they can’t cut SpaceX’s funding. Overriding the president requires two-thirds majority in both chambers.
8. SpaceX executed 161 of 195 FAA-licensed launches last year. 83%.
Headline risk is real. Most business risk is noise.
Washington may change. But demand for SpaceX won’t.
If it opens green, that’s a discount, not a change in the argument. Always hold ✊$SPCX Circle Q3 report released: total revenue plus reserve income reached $865 million, up 17% year-on-year. USDC's average daily circulation for the quarter was about $73.3 billion, ending at $73.9 billion; on-chain transactions totaled $13.9 trillion, up 49% year-on-year.
Don't just focus on total revenue. Of the other income of $207 million, about $182 million came from the one-time ARC token presale. Reserve income was $658 million, down 8% year-on-year, dragged down by falling interest rates. The numbers look good, but that doesn't mean the surge in float has already supported all the profits.
If USDC circulation falls below $70 billion within two weeks, or if other income significantly shrinks next quarter and reserve income continues to decline, treat this as a presale pulse rather than a fundamental shift in USDC. Snapshot around 20:02 Beijing time, Binance USDC about $1.001.
$USDC
#USDC #Circle #stablecoinCore data analysis of BTC whale positions, 79200 is the key level, bears gather!!!
BTC perpetual current price 78445.60, increase of 1.98%, total whale traders 1239, total positions 3.92B, nominal long-short ratio 23.54%.
There are 300 long whales holding 747.74M, average entry price 84449.85, unrealized loss of 57.23 million USD, profit ratio 54.33%, high-level trapped positions remain heavy.
There are 939 short whales holding 3.17B, position size far exceeds longs, average entry price 75996.95, after this round of price rebound, short unrealized loss expanded to 99.13 million USD, profit ratio dropped to 39.29%.
As the price rises, short pressure increases rapidly, a large number of low-position ambush shorts are trapped; although longs are also at a loss, this rebound slightly alleviates the trapped pressure. Whale camp shows obvious divergence, shorts have a large base but are now passively pressured, longs have high costs with limited upward breakout momentum. The short-term market enters a key battle position, with short liquidation liquidity stacked above, the sustainability of the rebound requires continuous observation of volume, chasing highs risk gradually rises, not suitable for aggressive opening.
For market review reference only, does not constitute any trading advice🚨 Bitcoin doesn't care who wins the election; what it truly cares about is the flow of funds!
On election day, Bitcoin couldn't even hold above $78,000. Now, BTC is hovering around $77,000, and the market is sending a signal that can't be ignored. ⚠️
📉 Fear and Greed Index: 33 — Fear
💥 Total liquidation amount: $282 million
🔻 Long liquidation amount: $211 million
But what really deserves attention is...
Everyone is focused on the U.S. election, debating whether the Democrats or Republicans are better for the crypto market.
The fact is: a political victory doesn't automatically mean funds will flow into Bitcoin.
The CLARITY Act remains stuck in political deadlock. Even if control of Congress changes, crypto regulatory issues won't be resolved overnight.
Meanwhile, institutional funds are sending different signals:
🔴 In nearly 6 trading days, Bitcoin spot ETF funds have seen a net outflow of $859 million.
🔴 BlackRock IBIT had a single-day outflow of $233.7 million.
🔴 Since 2026, the cumulative net inflow of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs has turned negative.
Whales may be buying, but institutional investors remain cautious.
🔥 The key level BTC really needs to watch next:
The $76,000 support zone is critical.
If BTC holds this level, a rebound to $78,000–$80,000 is still possible.
#DailyOrbit Hong Kong today opened up the ledger of crypto transactions but did not add new taxes
The Legislative Council passed the CARF bill on November 4. Crypto service providers associated with Hong Kong must register with the tax authority and report customer transaction information annually starting January 1, 2027
From 2028, this information will begin to be automatically exchanged with partner jurisdictions. The revised CRS will take effect the same year
The key point is no new tax types are added, only increased visibility. Transactions previously hidden in exchanges will now be reconciled annually
The cost of compliance is registration and reporting; the cost of non-compliance is being seen by the whole world together
#HongKong #CARF #Crypto #TaxOracle's AI cloud business is growing rapidly and plans to raise $20 billion for expansion, indicating that AI computing power capital expenditure is still accelerating, indirectly supporting Tesla's autonomous driving computing narrative. However, in the short term, funds prefer cloud and chip targets that benefit directly. I maintain a cautious bearish view on TSLA. The price has dropped from 409.17 to 377.38, down 6.2% in 24 hours, running close to the low point on the 1-hour chart. Although the 4-hour chart is still in an uptrend structure, it has given back more than half of its gains; the top 10 order book shows 39 buy orders and 9 sell orders, with a buy-sell ratio of 4.45 indicating support at low levels. The funding rate is 0.0000%, and open interest is 43,000, showing a cool leverage sentiment and no overheating of bulls. Operationally, one can lightly try going long at 378.24 with a stop loss below 374.65 and a target of 391.83; if the rebound stalls near 391.83, reverse to short with a stop loss at 396.42 and a target of 377.85. Keep single position size within 20% and strictly stop loss.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wish you successful trading. —
$TSLA#甲骨文AI云业务高速增长，拟融资200亿美元支持扩张
#甲骨文AI云业务高速增长，拟融资200亿美元支持扩张
$TSLA Tonight's key focus is the ADP small non-farm payrolls, a critical juncture. The market generally expects new job additions to drop to around 70,000. Data below 70,000 is bullish for gold, potentially triggering a direct surge towards 4080. Data above 70,000 is bearish for gold, likely causing gold prices to spike then retreat, with a secondary dip testing support near the previous low of 3842. If the trend meets expectations, it will likely return to technical consolidation, and the market will quickly enter a wait-and-see mode ahead of Friday's major non-farm payrolls.
The four-hour rebound momentum is quite sharp; avoid blindly opening positions before the data. If bullish and it breaks through 4080, wait for a pullback and stabilization before entering. If bearish, a direct decline is possible. Risk control remains paramount. This coincides with the winter time release at 21:15, when spreads tend to widen and volatility increases, so strict stop-losses are essential. $BTC $XAUT $ETH #AMD数据中心收入近翻倍，营收及指引均超预期 #Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？ #Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？ 10 月 9 号那一轮，全网爆仓 11.91 亿。我拉了币种明细，愣了一下：ETH 自己就占了 3.56 亿，BTC 才 2.98 亿。 ETH 市值大概是 BTC 的五分之一，爆仓额却比 BTC 还多 0.58 亿。这数字反常识，但想一层就通了。这跟跌多少没关系，跟上面压了多少杠杆有关系。 BTC 你敢开三倍五倍，ETH 敢开十倍二十倍。倍数越高，离强平线越近。跌的时候，先死的总是杠杆最挤的那个。我记得 21 年那轮，自己也犯过这个错——当时觉得 ETH 是老二，应该比那些小币稳，后来才明白，一个币稳不稳，跟它排第几没多大关系，看的是它上面压了多少杠杆。 有人算过那轮的账：按市值折算，ETH 每 10 亿市值被清掉约 120 万美金，BTC 才 18 万，差了差不多 6 倍。说白了同样一千亿的盘子，ETH 里爆出来的水是 BTC 的六倍。 这事儿今天也没结束。 过去 24 小时，全网又爆了 3.8 亿，其中多单 3.4 亿，占快九成。也就是说，这轮被强平的主要还是杠杆多头——现货那边反而在观望，没怎么砸。 但有个细节更值得盯：未平仓The top 1 and top 6 whales on the $ETH Hyperliquid leaderboard have directly lost nearly 300 million USD worth of ETH short positions.
With such a huge position pressing down, it's clear they are betting on the spot buying drying up.
The funniest part is that the funding rate is still positive now; the longs are all holding on desperately, paying interest to these shorts every day.
Currently, the market doesn't even have a decent rebound, relying solely on the previous low at 2171 to hold strong.
As soon as this level breaks, it will trigger a chain liquidation of longs, and below will be a vast ocean, just enough for the whales to eat well, close their positions, and leave.
#ETH
$ETH
👇$UNI hacker smashed all 7.02 million stolen UNI into ETH, forcibly creating a nearly $40 million spot gap.
The most extreme part is that the victim now has no choice but to grit their teeth and buy back on the secondary market to replenish the inventory. On the market, there are large buy orders hanging stubbornly at the 6.8 level every day, the hacker's selling pressure has just been eaten up, and this tens of millions of rigid buyback demand is about to take over and enter.
The shorts have been hammering on this iron plate at 6.8 for a long time without success, and they still have to face the obvious rally buying behind it. Once forced into a liquidation stampede, this level could bounce up in minutes.
#UNI
$UNI
👇$HYPE USDT — Hyperliquid
HYPE is trading at $86.778, up 1.97%, with a 24-hour high of $87.90 and low of $80.92. Price is above MA5 at $86.348, MA10 at $85.089, and MA20 at $81.799, suggesting improving momentum.
Next Move: A breakout above $87.90 could target higher resistance, while losing $84 may weaken the setup.
TG1: $88.00
TG2: $92.00
TG3: $97.00#SonyQ2GamingAndMusic A message that looks like a "loss" actually didn't rule on anything.
The U.S. Second Circuit Court of Appeals dismissed the injunction requests from Coinbase Financial Markets and Kalshi. An injunction is not a judgment; it is a temporary relief: you have to prove "irreparable harm if not stopped," and the court found this step was not met. The dismissal means procedurally there is no need to hit the brakes, not a substantive decision on who is right.
The court clarified: this ruling made no decision on the substantive issues of the appeal, nor did it require the platforms to stop trading or close existing positions. Trading continues as usual, positions remain, accounts will not be frozen. For position holders, the real impact is close to zero.
The real battlefield is at the state level. This round of cases involves enforcement of prediction markets by Connecticut and New York, involving Coinbase in Connecticut, and Kalshi in both Connecticut and New York. State regulators classify prediction markets as "gambling," while platforms insist they are derivatives; this classification dispute is the real line between life and death. The injunction dismissal only means the tug-of-war will continue for a long time, not that anyone has won.
For large assets like $BTC and $ETH, this news hardly constitutes a pricing factor. What really needs attention is the platform-side business model: whether prediction markets can be compliant and launched in the U.S. determines the ceiling of this sector for the next few years.
The same product is called gambling in two states, treated as derivatives at the federal level—who will make the final call?20261104
5. People are starting to get scared, how much will this wave see?
1. A couple of days ago, BTC was around 77400, and on the same day the fear index dropped from 51 to 30, the lowest since mid-August. 51 means not panicking, 30 means starting to get scared.
2. The sentiment has changed, so the target must change too. Originally, this wave was targeting 75800, now it’s adjusted to 73000, moved down a bit.
3. 75800 is the first line; if it falls there, it might not hold. If it doesn’t hold, then it’s time for 73000, only about 3 points difference in between.
4. Around 73000 is the average buying price for everyone in the past six months. If it falls there, everyone who entered in the past six months is at a loss on paper, and those losing are the most likely to sell.
5. 30 is just fear, not the worst fear yet, so first watch if 75800 can hold; if it can’t, then look at 73000.
6. Saylor says the Bitcoin bull market has arrived, do you believe that?
1. This year, the coins he holds increased by 26%, about 840,000 coins in total, but the coins held by those who can buy his shares decreased by 3.7%. Coins are increasing, shares are decreasing. Because the money to buy coins comes from printing new shares, newcomers share together, the pie hasn’t grown, your slice just gets diluted.
2. Don’t take the 20.9 billion profit on his report seriously; that’s a paper number calculated from coin price increases, no coins have been sold.
3. The core: the more coins he buys, the more diluted your slice becomes.$HYPE SHORT SETUP
HYPE is showing negative momentum near 84.450. Failure to reclaim 84.70 could favor further downside.
Entry: 84.45–84.75
TP1: 83.80
TP2: 83.15
TP3: 82.50
SL: 85.30
Confirmation: Bearish CHoCH and resistance rejection.#SonyQ2GamingAndMusic $COIN
Will industry security concerns bring market share opportunities or shared pressure to Coinbase?
Users might re-evaluate custody and compliance capabilities, or overall reduce crypto trading. Relative trust advantages do not necessarily mean industry revenue will grow.
If net inflows improve while subscriptions and custody remain stable, resilience is stronger; if trading volume and client assets shrink together, relative advantages may still be offset by cyclical pressures, so benefits cannot be inferred solely from competitors' troubles.#CFTC首次放行美国个股永续期货# This regulatory breakthrough is favorable for risk appetite and aligns with Bitcoin's macro linkage logic. I judge the short-term bias to be bullish, but the upside is constrained by the four-hour downtrend. Bitcoin current price is 78459.4, up 1.9% in 24 hours. After holding the low at 75690.1, it is still 7.16% below the four-hour high. The one-hour downtrend remains unchanged, indicating a corrective rebound; the top 10 bid-ask ratio of 2.56 shows buyers dominate the order book, the funding rate of 0.0071% is neutral, open interest at 36,000 shows no overheating from chasing longs, sentiment is cautious. Strategy: lightly go long on a pullback to 77685, stop loss at 76840, target 79360; if it rallies to 79620 and stalls, consider reversing to short, stop loss at 80240, target 78310. Single position size should not exceed 20%, exit immediately if broken.
——This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wish you successful trading.——
$BTC#CFTC首次放行美国个股永续期货
#CFTC首次放行美国个股永续期货
$BTC The election results are out, the Democratic Party took control of both chambers. Without discussing who is good or bad, at least the "uncertainty" is over.
The market reaction was very direct: BTC at 78,549, ETH at 2,330, both up nearly 3%, gold also pulled back above 4,000, MSTR rose 3.72% last night, Circle up 4.36%, money is starting to move.
What people feared before was not who would win, but the deadlock, the fear that no result would come out. Now that the result is clear and clean, with uncertainty gone, funds dare to enter the market.
There is still a small test tonight: Circle's earnings report. It is one of the few companies in the crypto space with real revenue. Whether the stablecoin story can turn into profit is worth watching, as it concerns whether the stablecoin sector can continue to be viable.
My own view is that there is a recovery, but don't call it a bull market just because of one bullish candle. BTC needs to hold above 78,000 or 79,000 to really be considered recovered. Let's see if it can hold in the next couple of days.
How many days do you think this recovery can last?
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 $BTC $ETH $CRCL $XAUT From the current market situation, gold continues to rise relying on a strong bullish candlestick. The long position strategy given publicly at 4010 in the afternoon has been steadily realized, successfully securing a 40-point profit. The market has formed a consecutive bullish structure with strong upward momentum, currently in a slow rising phase, and no tail volume signals have appeared yet. However, supported by continuous bullish candles, a volume surge and accelerated upward movement are expected later. Slow rise is also an increase; short-term priority is to be bullish.
The 4-hour bullish rhythm is steady. After each short pause and slight pullback, a new stage high can be created. The stepwise upward movement gradually recovers previous decline space, and bullish momentum is released steadily. After consolidation, the market shows no obvious weakening, maintaining a short-term strong pattern with room for further gains. The trading approach remains unchanged, continuing to wait for pullback opportunities to go long.
Evening gold trading strategy: buy on pullback between 4030-4020 with a direct target at 4100 According to on-chain investigator ZachXBT, an EU entity's accounts across multiple exchanges were hacked, resulting in losses of up to $106 million. The stolen funds are being rapidly converted into Ethereum (ETH) and Monero (XMR), a common tactic used by attackers to obfuscate the flow of funds. This incident highlights the increasing complexity of attacks targeting high-net-worth individuals and institutions. Method of attack: Exchange accounts compromised Although details are limited, the pattern suggests that the attackers may have organized intrusions into the entity's exchange accounts through phishing, SIM card swapping, or credential leaks. Funds were quickly moved into ETH and Monero, indicating a well-prepared money laundering strategy. Monero's privacy features make it an ideal choice for concealing illicit funds, while ETH offers deep liquidity for further exchanges. ZachXBT's involvement underscores the growing importance of independent blockchain investigators in tracking illicit funds. Their public disclosures often prompt exchanges and law enforcement to act swiftly, but once funds enter privacy coins, recovery becomes extremely difficult. Industry impact: Security vulnerabilities and regulatory scrutiny This incident has raised serious questions about the security status of centralized exchanges and whether their KYC/AML controls are adequate. Even with strict KYC, attackers can exploit account takeover vulnerabilities. The EU's MiCA regulation imposes stringent requirements on custody and operational resilience, and this case may become its first major test. Exchange responsibility: Will exchanges compensate victims? Most terms of service disclaim liability for stolen accounts, but reputational damage may forceTrezor CEO says buying BTC ETFs is not the same as truly owning BTC. As ETF sizes grow, is this a warning about risks or a denial of institutionalization? 1. News. According to public reports, Trezor CEO Matěj Žák stated that BTC ETFs offer convenience, but investors do not have control over private keys, so it differs from directly holding BTC. Meanwhile, Mercado Bitcoin confirmed a security incident involving about $46 million and suspended withdrawals, prompting the market to again discuss the risk boundaries between custody and self-custody. BTC is priced at $77,091.9, down 4.3% in the past week. 2. Capital impact. The latest BTC ETF disclosure shows a single-day net inflow of $34.1 million, a 5-day net inflow of $406.5 million, and a 10-day net inflow of $173.6 million. ETFs remain an important channel for institutions to enter BTC, and the capital scale has not disappeared; however, ETF shares, custody arrangements, and redemption mechanisms mean investors bear product structure risk rather than direct coin-holding risk. 3. BTC implications. Institutionalization has increased BTC accessibility but has not eliminated counterparty risk. Exchange incidents remind the market that convenience, liquidity, and control cannot all be maximized simultaneously. ETFs suit funds that require securities accounts and compliant channels, while self-custody suits holders emphasizing control; these are not the same risk products. 4. Observation indicators. I will next monitor four indicators: first, whether core ETFs continue to have net inflows; second, ETF premiums and redemptionsCapital and Macroeconomics
The core driver of this rebound is sentiment recovery rather than capital returning. The expectation of a Democratic Party sweep in the midterm elections has eased regulatory concerns in the crypto industry. Trump has stated he will respect the election results, the market holds hope for the resumption of peace talks with Iran, and 10x Research head Thielen bluntly said, "Bitcoin is currently oversold and should rebound." However, Democratic control of Congress is unfavorable for pro-crypto legislation, and regulatory uncertainty remains unresolved.
The order book structure remains a risk: previously, the 15-minute buy-sell ratio dropped as low as 0.22, with sell orders clearly dominant. The sell order at 77,327 accounts for 49.1% of the total sell volume, and the shallow order book amplifies short-term volatility. Whether the volume of the V-shaped rebound is genuine depends on sustained buying above 78,500 to confirm it. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #BTC现货ETF资金流出，企业财库增持放缓 Last night, there was a direct major turnaround in both houses of Congress. Wall Street has actually already started quietly pricing in the new rules. Do you think the market is scared or secretly relieved by this change of power?
To put it simply, the White House will find it much harder to pull off big moves going forward. The previously biggest concerns about reckless borrowing and blind tax cuts are very likely to be blocked, and the Federal Reserve's independence is actually preserved. This kind of bipartisan gridlock, although it slows policy progress, at least helps the financial market avoid many of the worst pitfalls.
What’s next?
The US stock market definitely won’t just crash unilaterally; it will become polarized and fragmented. AI computing power will face stricter scrutiny in the short term, so things might get tough. But sectors relying on policy support like new energy and medical insurance subsidies might actually rebound.
The crypto space will suffer. With the Democrats controlling the Senate Banking Committee, the previously hoped-for regulatory easing is completely off the table. Compliance costs will only rise, so don’t expect any policy tailwinds to boost the market anytime soon. The market mainly depends on whether the macro faucet opens or not.
As for the turnaround in US Treasury yields and the surge in gold, it’s all capital seeking safe havens. Since policy frictions are increasing, physical assets definitely look more attractive.
Do you think the Federal Reserve will speed up or slow down rate cuts because of this election?
DYOR
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 The cost of taking the wrong political side is that the market votes with its feet.
In this election, Musk spent heavily supporting the Republican Party. Now, the Democrats have taken control of both chambers. What does this mean? This is called "a new official's first three fires," and most likely, this fire will burn Musk. $SPCX $TSLA
As shown in the picture, before the election, the Democrats had already hinted at investigating him and government contracts. Now that they hold power, Tesla's FSD (Full Self-Driving) will inevitably face stricter regulatory scrutiny, and those high-value government contracts between SpaceX and the Department of Defense will likely be examined under a magnifying glass.
Capital fears this kind of uncertainty the most. Even if the market is recovering, funds will first avoid such "high-risk targets." So while others rebound, he plunges—this is entirely due to the surge in regulatory risk premium.
This also serves as a reminder for us: the same applies in the crypto world. Now that the Democrats have full control, whether our over 200 million in political donations will buy us goodwill is still unknown, but the expectation of tighter regulation is definitely on the way. Don't catch these politically risky flying knives; keep your cash steady and wait until the overall environment becomes completely clear.For the crypto community, BTC is the most sensitive to liquidity expectations. Often, prices will trade in anticipation of interest rate cuts or easing before the actual funds have truly entered. Conversely, if employment data is strong and rate hike expectations rise again, short-term volatility will also be significant. #Solana稳定币卡月消费额创新高 Data shows that the monthly spending volume of Solana ecosystem stablecoin cards reached $141 million in October, a sevenfold year-on-year surge, setting records for four consecutive months, indicating continuous acceleration in on-chain payment adoption. The core advantage lies in Solana's fast transfers and low fees, making it suitable for stablecoin daily payments. Combined with multiple crypto card products and cashback promotions attracting users, it opens channels from USDC and USDC to Visa/Mastercard merchants, allowing on-chain assets to be directly used for offline consumption, representing a genuine user adoption signal.
However, the market needs to distinguish that this spending volume mainly flows to card issuing service providers and will not directly convert into SOL block rewards. The short-term benefits are more emotional. At the same time, regulatory variables must be faced; if US crypto regulation tightens, such payment services are likely to face compliance constraints. Additionally, industry competition is fierce, with Ethereum and Polygon also developing similar payment cards, so the growth is not an exclusive benefit.
In terms of market trends, this data is a long-term fundamental positive factor but is unlikely to independently drive a major surge in SOL price. The price mainline still follows the overall market, interest rate expectations, and capital sentiment. Future focus will be on tracking user retention, transaction frequency, and regulatory policy changes to judge whether the payment sector can continue to scale.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC The most dangerous thing when a rebound approaches the next barrier is to treat the target price as a pass.
Caleb expects $BTC to first test liquidity near 79,000, then possibly face resistance and retest 77,600; he will not change the overall plan until the daily candle closes back above 81,000. This is his conditional path, not a sequence of three price levels that will all be realized, nor is it a market movement that has already occurred.
Kraken quotes about $78,527, which has not yet reached his mentioned upper observation level. My personal market observation is to not write the latter half of the market story yet: if after a spike the hourly close cannot hold and the rebound lacks strength, I will increase caution for a retest; if the upper level is effectively reclaimed and the pullback holds, then "inevitable resistance" can no longer be used as a reason. Larger cycle adjustments require looking at daily conditions separately.
My judgment is that short-term continuation of the rise and mid-term strengthening require different evidence. For now, I do not chase untriggered targets, nor do I prematurely short just because a retest might happen. Repeated boundary tests most easily consume capital; I prefer to do less rather than maintain original judgments by expanding tolerance. When reaching the observation level, will you first look at the hourly close or wait for the pullback to be supported? This is just for exchanging views and does not constitute investment advice.Old Leek Observation｜$RUNE: Rebounded nearly 15% after halt, is this a bottom-fishing opportunity?
THORChain recently experienced a multi-chain transaction suspension. On October 31, Ethereum underwent a block reorganization, causing an issue with THORChain's refund logic where a 10 ETH deposit was refunded twice, triggering automatic risk control and suspending multiple cross-chain transaction routes.
On November 4, after the v3.21.1 update, most cross-chain transactions resumed, and RUNE rebounded accordingly.
Market snapshot: price around $0.63, 24-hour increase about 13%, 7-day performance still nearly flat
Market cap about $207 million, 24-hour trading volume about $191 million, TVL about $62.37 million
This rebound has clear catalysts, but I do not think it can be directly interpreted as a fundamental reversal.
There are three reasons:
First, recovery does not mean full recovery.
Currently, networks like $ATOM, BSC, and $SOL are still suspended, and some nodes have not completed upgrades.
Second, THORChain's transaction volume needs quality assessment.
Q3 cross-chain transaction volume was about $3.82 billion, but some transactions were affected by hacker fund flows. Abnormally large funds cannot be directly counted as healthy user growth.
Third, RUNE's value capture mechanism has changed.
The protocol's own liquidity receives 20% of system revenue distribution, while RUNE's direct burn ratio has dropped from 5% to 1%.Judging the cycle phase, the best signals are: bullish moves that can't push higher and bearish moves that can't push lower.
Bullish moves that can't push higher:
Trump's SOL token issuance, volume increases but price doesn't rise, then peaks;
Micron reports nearly 90% gross margin, cycle peak surges then falls back.
Bearish moves that can't push lower:
FTX collapse, ETH holds previous lows;
MSTR sells BTC, slight dip then price holds;
US tech stocks collectively crash + major exchange hacker black swan, BTC only drops 5%.
The reason is simple: sellers are exhausted
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 As a leading stablecoin company, Circle's core foundation is USDC, relying on interest from reserve assets as its main source of income. This third-quarter earnings report exceeded overall expectations, with revenue, net profit, and adjusted EBITDA all showing positive growth, and on-chain ecosystem activity continuing to rise. This quarter, the average circulating supply of USDC was $73.3 billion, up 8% year-over-year, and on-chain transaction volume surged 49% year-over-year. Institutional trading demand remains strong, the company's overall profitability has significantly improved, short-term fundamentals are resilient, and market sentiment is supported.
However, beneath the surface of high growth, the core issue in the earnings report is very clear: the main business revenue growth is weak, and high growth relies on one-time income to support it. Core stablecoin reserve income declined 8% year-over-year, impacted by falling U.S. Treasury yields. Even with USDC scale expansion, it cannot offset the profit pressure caused by interest rates, and the traditional stablecoin profit model continues to weaken. The exceptionally high EBITDA growth this quarter mainly depends on a one-time income of $182 million from the ARC token presale, not sustained growth from the main business, so the real profit quality is far less impressive than the data suggests.
Overall, declining interest rates suppress core profit, the company's performance heavily depends on non-recurring income, making valuation difficult to sustain at higher levels, but there is some short-term upside potential. $CRCL #Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？ $CRCL
864.9 million USD revenue, 226 million net profit, USDC on-chain transaction volume up 49% year-over-year. Circle's Q3 report looks impressive no matter the year.
The pre-market reaction in US stocks is +3%.
On OKX, the CRCL token is moving more aggressively than the underlying stock. It opened at 72.61 and is now at 77.03, up 6.1%. The 19:00 hourly candle had 121,600 contracts, compared to just 26,000 in the previous one, a volume increase of four and a half times that pushed the price from 76.26 up to 78.17.
I'm more concerned about two other numbers. The position size is only 33.17 million USD, and this single volume traded nearly 30% of the chips. The fee rate is 0.0359%, which is three and a half times the 0.01% baseline, indicating bulls are paying up to chase.
A thin pool plus high fees means the price rises fast but also falls fast. I don't touch this kind of stock. It's not that I don't believe in Circle's business, but I can't stand a market where nearly 30% of the position turns over in one candle.
I trust the financial report, but I won't chase the price.
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 $BTC
Washington fired two shots at crypto today, yet BTC actually touched the daily high.
The probability of the CLARITY Act passing in its current form is now close to zero, and the Senate Banking Committee might even fall under Warren's control. On the other side, the list of issuers opposing tokenization has grown to 59, including Apple, Home Depot, and GE Vernova. A $64 million political donation also couldn't stop Sherrod Brown from being elected.
Three months ago, these news would have been enough to crash the price by $2,000.
The order book is at 78,651, 24-hour high at 78,725.5, +1.9%. At 7 PM, there were 157,000 contracts, at 6 PM, 254,000 contracts; volume shrank by 40% but the price still pushed up. Open interest is 2.793 billion, slightly higher than 2.76 billion at 6 PM. The fee rate is 0.0073%, below the 0.01% benchmark.
Price recognizes money, not legislation. The legislative path is dead, but leverage is not.
At 8 AM, the price dropped to 75,690; I took it as a one-time election panic pricing and didn't move after writing. Now it seems it didn't fall further, but I don't have the courage to add positions either. This kind of uneventful market is the easiest to make people impulsive.
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 Here's something about the carved boat analogy
Historically, every major Bitcoin dip bottoms out shortly after the midterm elections
2014: Bitcoin bottomed 71 days later, at a price of $170
2018: Bitcoin bottomed 39 days later, at a price of $3,200
2022: Bitcoin bottomed 13 days later, at a price of $15,500
From $170 to nearly $20,000 in 2017: an increase of over 100 times.
From $3,200 to $64,000 in 2021: a 20-fold increase.
From $15,500 to $126,000 in 2025: an 8-fold increase.
Just looking at this data alone, it does seem true and factual, and you might think it's impressive.
But if you break down each instance carefully, you'll find that the direct cause of each bottoming has basically nothing to do with the midterm elections.
For example, the bottom 13 days after the 2022 midterms was directly caused by the sudden collapse and bankruptcy of FTX the day after the election, triggering a chain of liquidations.
The fundamental driving force behind Bitcoin is the "four-year halving cycle," not the midterm elections.
However, this data actually implies another more important trend:
The returns are sharply diminishing (from 100x → 20x → 8x), and with the introduction of Bitcoin ETFs, volatility is significantly narrowing. The market structure and the pattern of the previous three one-sided crashes through the end of the year are no longer exactly the same.
So, what do you think will happen after the 2026 midterm elections?The boot has dropped. The election is one-sided, the opponent has conceded, and the biggest question mark in the market is gone.
Many people see this day as a positive: uncertainty eliminated, risk appetite returning.
But that's not what I see. The end of the election is not the end of risk, but the beginning of a logic re-evaluation. What was priced in over the past two years was "political noise"; what will be priced in next is the speed at which the new government takes action.
The first part is liquidation.
When a new government takes office, the first batch to be dealt with is often not external opponents. Companies deeply tied to old policies and living off policy arbitrage, especially certain targets in tech and energy, will face compliance reviews, fines, and executive reshuffles. This kind of risk doesn't show up in financial reports, nor will it give early warnings on the K-line; the only way is to avoid it.
I won't touch it. It's not bearishness; it's that this money isn't mine to make.
The second part is geopolitics. The old government's cards have been played; during the handover period, external conflicts might cool down, and the war premium on crude oil might dissipate. But don't be too sure—the handover period is precisely when "one last gamble" is most likely, with volatility jumping first and prices following.
The third part, and the core this time: AI.
The new government's base is lawyers, doctors, and traditional media—those hit hardest by AI. They voted and expect returns, so policies to restrict AI are an open secret.
But here's a deadlock: if they really clamp down, the current AI valuations in the US stock market can't hold—that's not a correction, it's systemic risk; if they don't act, the base won't accept it.
So don't expect overt "AI suppression" policies. More likely is no ban, but a slowdown in R&D and capital expenditure pace.
The most dangerous thing is not policy, but expectations.
As soon as the market starts to believe "AI investment will slow down," the Nasdaq bulls will stampede themselves first. This stampede has nothing to do with fundamentals but with leverage—after two years of gains, positions are heavy; whoever runs first survives.
So my move isn't to guess policy but to protect the bulls first. Buying put options and making collars—the cost is certain, but liquidation is uncertain. I'm willing to pay that price.
Where will the money go?
If Western AI R&D really slows down, the beneficiaries won't be the American second-tier AI companies telling stories, but those with fewer compute constraints, lower costs, and still committed to open source. The path of domestic large models in recent years is clear: not competing on parameters, but on efficiency.
This sector will receive excess liquidity. Conversely, those overseas second-tier AI companies with exorbitant costs, surviving on rounds of financing, constrained compute, and no fundamental breakthroughs will have to reprice. Repricing means downwards.
The last scenario I don't want to write but must prepare for.
If the power transition is unstable or extreme confrontation occurs, it's no longer about sector rotation. Gold and long-term US bonds move first, volatility goes crazy, then risk assets are indiscriminately sold off.
In such times, cash is not conservative but ammunition. After the liquidity crisis passes, the first to pick up assets will be those who still have money.
One thing I've learned these years: staying alive is more important than being right.
The market never pays those who "understand"; it pays those who "survive."
Control your hands. Wait until policy direction is clear—domestic large models, unrestricted technology, traditional defense—then increase positions; that's far more valuable than guessing now.Order Book Strength Ranking
5-minute median slippage, estimated by order book
$DGAI Large sell order cost decreases, buy order cost increases. Simulated buy/sell slippage for 100,000 scale changed from 0.61%/2.89% to 0.77%/2.38%. Both sides are divided.
$AKE Sell cost for two levels decreases simultaneously. Simulated sell slippage: 10,000 decreased from 0.28% to 0.18%, 100,000 decreased from 1.09% to 0.90%. Compared to the previous window, large transaction costs are decreasing.近4小时，HYPE、ZEC、XRP同步收涨，合约资金占比也都偏向多头。作者的判断是，当前多头占优仍属温和格局，价格拉升后仍需留意获利盘回踩。 HYPE价格为86.886，涨幅+1.98%；做多资金2.5亿，占54.91%，做空资金2.1亿，占45.09%。三者相比，HYPE的多头占比最高，但多空差距仍有限。 ZEC价格为1308.69，涨幅+2.59%；做多8.2亿，占52.67%，做空7.4亿，占47.33%。它的涨幅最大，资金倾向却没有明显拉开。作者将这轮弹性与前面大规模空单清算的数据联系起来，这一解释仍要结合后续资金变化观察。 XRP价格为1.2917，涨幅+1.11%；做多1.9亿，占52.34%，做空1.7亿，占47.66%，多头优势在三者中相对较弱。 💡 我的看法。 这组数据更像是上涨过程中的偏多情绪，而非压倒性的单边拥挤。多头占比不能直接推导后续涨跌，尤其当价格已经上行时，短线获利了结可能让回踩更快出现。接下来可重点看多空占比是否继续扩大，以及价格上涨时资金是否同步增强。你会更关注ZEC的价格弹性，还是HYPE相对更高的多头占比？Circle delivered an almost flawless financial report, yet its stock price only rose 3% in pre-market trading. This reaction is more telling than the numbers themselves.
Q3 total revenue and reserve income reached $864.9 million, up 17% year-over-year, beating the expected $776.7 million. Adjusted EBITDA was $317 million, up 91%, surpassing the expected $202.8 million. Net profit was $226 million, compared to the expected $91.6 million.
Note the growth gap: revenue increased by 17%, while EBITDA surged 91%. The extra profit didn’t come from collecting more money, but from costs not rising accordingly. The marginal cost of stablecoin issuance is close to zero; once scale is established, every additional dollar of revenue translates into a higher proportion of profit. This is a rent-collection business, not a trading business.
$USDC’s reserve income essentially comes from interest on the underlying dollar assets, with flexibility depending only on two factors: circulation scale and interest rate environment. Neither is determined by crypto market trends. Whether $BTC rises or falls does not affect how many dollars back each USDC.
More importantly, management maintained their performance guidance unchanged. Achieving more than double the expected net profit in a single quarter but refusing to raise the full-year forecast usually indicates that this quarter includes unsustainable elements—the reserve income boosted by high interest rates has a ceiling.
So the real question isn’t how much Circle earned this quarter, but what will support $USDC’s profit curve once interest rates decline.Some say that when a company buys Bitcoin, it's gambling. I think it depends on what money they use to buy it. If it's employee salaries or payments owed to suppliers, and those funds are still needed, yet they claim it's a long-term hold, I don't believe they can really hold on to it. I can understand hoarding coins with money that temporarily doesn't affect operations, and accepting the losses, but you can't use "long-term" as an excuse to silence shareholders. I'd actually like to review the announcements—if the company really runs short of operating funds, who has the authority to decide to sell the coins? When they bought, it was all fanfare; why hasn't anyone elaborated on this part?$BTC Today's Bitcoin trend really embodies the phrase "frustrating," let me share some solid market insights with you:
Right now (19:42), the price has touched $78,486, up 2% in 24 hours, but during the day it just climbed up from a low of $75,700. Intraday, it has spiked up and down nearly $3,000, with longs and shorts both triggering stop losses back and forth. Many who shorted in the morning got trapped by the afternoon.
The whole market is basically stuck:
- Liquidations on contracts are down by one-third compared to the previous day; no one dares to use high leverage, longs and shorts are almost evenly split, and no one is willing to bet heavily.
- Although Binance covered the $6.3 billion hack themselves, people are still uneasy and reluctant to put more money on exchanges, causing buy orders to shrink significantly.
- The Fed's December rate hike probability is nearly 80%, and the dollar is still strengthening. Everyone is holding cash, waiting for the U.S. nonfarm payroll data on November 6th, and no one dares to bet on the direction early.
In short, it's "neither falling nor rising." There is solid support around 76,000, but to hold above 78,000 and push higher, no new money is coming in to catch the dip. In the next two days, it will most likely oscillate between 76,000 and 79,000. Until there is a volume breakout, anyone calling a big move is just talking nonsense. The trends of three altcoins are diverging; bottom-fishing requires caution
$LIGHT
Currently, the daily chart shows signs of stabilization, entering a phase of oscillating upward movement. However, bearish momentum is insufficient, and the driving force for a rally is limited. If the price reaches a certain level without enough bears entering, there is a significant risk of a direct dump, indicating a failed bear trap.
$USELESS
At present, bearish profits are ten times those of bulls. Although it rebounded 15% today, the overall trend has not reversed and can only be considered an oversold rebound for now. Do not blindly bottom-fish due to short-term gains; it is safer to wait for the trend to truly develop before acting.
$AKE
This coin currently shows no clear hope for a rally. Bearish profits have reached $1.35 million, with a 1350% drop in just 12 days. Even if the drop adds another zero, it does not mean it has bottom-fishing value. Blindly catching the falling knife can easily lead to further losses.
The biggest fear with altcoins is thinking they are cheap after a big drop, then mistaking a small rise for a reversal. Patience is more important than bottom-fishing before the trend emerges.[Pharaoh's Market Watch]
Brothers, Wall Street institutions recently did something ruthless—they directly slashed Anthropic's IPO valuation from $2 trillion down to $1.5–1.6 trillion, chopping off four to five hundred billion in one cut. Pharaoh sips coffee watching the drama unfold in the heavens: wow, Claude hasn't even rung the bell yet, and he's already been broken by his own people.
Why the cut? Three words: no confidence. Tech stocks were just bloodied last week, AI sector funds are overly concentrated, and data centers are facing political resistance. Worse, Anthropic itself disclosed a $895.4 billion compute power expenditure commitment, with $69.8 billion due in the next 12 months alone. What about revenue? Q2 quarter-on-quarter growth exceeded 100%, but Q3 dropped directly to 45%, halving the growth rate.
The causal chain is clear: AI valuations are being marked down ➡️ market faith in "AI's unlimited spending" cracks ➡️ risk appetite for tech stocks continues to cool ➡️ incremental funds dare not rush into the most crowded places. But here’s a subtle twist—AI has been a massive liquidity black hole over the past year, with OpenAI cutting financing and AI company debt piling up to $655 billion, all eaten up by compute infrastructure. If AI valuations start to retreat, marginally it might actually squeeze some funds out of the "AI faith," forcing them to look for the next narrative. This isn’t necessarily bad for BTC, but it will take time; it won’t be realized tonight.
$BTC $ZEC #Anthropic潜在IPO投资者建议估值降至1.5万亿美元