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The minor non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations but no one cared, while the crypto market softened during this time
The two minor non-farm payroll reports came out: October ADP added 86,000 jobs, higher than the expected 69,000, showing no slowdown in employment. However, the market reaction was muted, as everyone is focused on the elections, leaving the employment report sidelined.
US stock futures rose cheerfully, Dow futures surged 1.8%, and the dollar continued to fall. Switching back to crypto, Bitcoin didn’t rise but fell, dropping from 78,556 to 78,273; Ethereum touched 2,327 but was pushed back to 2,315; SOL softened to 92.8.
This divergence is worth pondering. Strong employment means the Federal Reserve has even less reason to ease up; high interest rates will remain, and crypto, which is most sensitive to liquidity, can’t hold up. While others use the election narrative to push prices up, crypto can’t even break resistance, which itself is telling.
$BTC at 78,273, with resistance at 79,056 and 79,251 backed by 21.8 million, and support at 77,099 with 28.8 million is the recent key level.
$ETH at 2,315, 2,327 has already been tested and failed, next resistance at 2,344, support at 2,286 and 2,245.
$SOL at 92.8 remains the weakest, with a wall at 95.1 and above.
There’s a major non-farm payroll report on Friday; continue holding short positions, no chasing.
#美国10月非农前瞻：就业增长或牵动12月加息预期 #On-chain tokenized stock scale hits new highs, traditional financial institutions accelerate layout
The leader has something to say
The scale of on-chain tokenized stocks has hit new highs, and traditional financial institutions are accelerating their layout—this is a long-term foundational signal, not a short-term starting gun.
According to market statistics, the circulating scale of on-chain tokenized stocks is about $3.8 billion, breaking records for 10 consecutive weeks. On November 2, Securitize added 13 new tokenized US stocks on Solana (including ExxonMobil, Disney, Uber), bringing the total to 25; the NYSE partnered with Broadridge to provide on-chain voting and transfer services, but implementation still awaits regulatory approval. The compliance channel is getting longer and more stable, which is a trend worth noting.
But be clear: $3.8 billion is only about 0.15% of the total crypto market cap of approximately $2.58 trillion. The new high is mainly driven by the number of listings; on-chain depth, liquidity, and arbitrage efficiency remain unverified; the issuer blacklist is expanding, and resistance has not disappeared. This benefits the SOL ecosystem narrative (SOL current price about $93, slight intraday rise), but it does not mean a full market capital inflow.
Back to BTC: current price about 78,500, resistance at 78,960, support at 75,795, intraday rebound about 3.6% is still an oversold recovery. RWA is a slow variable; BTC's short-term rhythm is still determined by ETF net flows, US dollar interest rates, and risk appetite; ETF has not turned positive, fear index only 26, no matter how good the foundation is, don't go all in early.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC 美国 CFTC 主席 Selig 11 月 3 日发声明：以单只股票为标的的永续合约（Equity Perps），从当天起可以在 CFTC 注册的交易所上市交易。这是继今年 5 月放行比特币永续之后，永续合约第一次扩展到传统证券。 怎么批的：CFTC 依据 Regulation 40.3 视为“已批准”，并把它们定性为“证券期货产品”。也就是说，同时受 CFTC 和 SEC 监管，商品法和证券法都要遵守。只有同时在 SEC 做了证券期货 notice 注册的交易所才能上。 还没确定的：声明没有点名交易所，没说哪些股票，也没给开盘日期。Coinbase 衍生品交易所 9 月已提交个股永续申请（走的是 Regulation 41.23(b)），Kalshi 和 Bitnomial 也有类似申请，但声明没说这次批的是不是它们。所以“今天能交易”目前更像是开了门，谁先上架仍未确认。 风险点：CME 6 月已就比特币永续的批准起诉 CFTC，CFTC 申请驳回，案子还在走。另外 11 月 4 日民主党拿下国会两院，后续监督和立法态度可能变化。 接下来盯什么：第一家正式上架的交易所和标的清单；资金The market today went back and forth through the midterm election sentiment. After the news that the Democratic Party took control of Congress, BTC first dropped below $76,000 overnight, then rebounded in a V-shape to about $78,300, ETH around $2,317, with DeFi leading gains; CoinDesk's DeFi index rose about 5%.
My judgment: this looks more like a rebound after an emotional relief, not a trend reversal yet. The drop was due to political uncertainty, and the rebound was the fading of that uncertainty. The harder issue lies ahead: a Congress controlled by the blue camp means crypto legislation will need Democratic votes, and the industry's legislative agenda will have to be re-examined.
Don't just look at prices, watch the capital flows. This week, spot BTC ETFs are still seeing outflows, about $116M outflow on Tuesday alone, and previously about $398.6M on November 2. This means this rebound started before new ETF funds flowed back in. Analysts agree: for a sustained rise, ETFs need continuous net inflows and decisively break above $82,000; on the downside, the $76,000–$76,600 support must hold.
The next catalyst is Friday's US nonfarm payroll report. Before that, I consider $78,000 as the dividing line between rebound and bottoming: only above $82,000 do bulls have a case; below $76,000, the midterm election drop might just be the first leg. #Bitcoin Title: $BTC Long Positions Keep Growing Despite the Market Decline Since October 14, Bitcoin has dropped approximately 6%, yet Binance Open Interest has increased by 10%, reaching a 30-day high. Funding rates also remain positive. This suggests that traders are continuing to open long positions even as $BTC moves lower. The growing leverage against a declining price raises concerns about potential long-liquidation pressure. If buyers fail to defend key support levels, another downside move coulI always thought the money on-chain was moving everywhere, but I was proven wrong: less than 10% of stablecoins and tokenized assets are actually deposited into DeFi.
In other words, the majority of $USDT is just lying dormant in wallets, and the same goes for $USDC. We watch TVL rise and fall every day, chase after pools with high annual yields, but in the end, only a very small amount of money is actually playing.
It's a bit like a community swimming pool—looks lively, but out of thousands of people, only about twenty are actually swimming.
What is the rest of the money waiting for? Probably for a reason not to have to constantly watch the liquidation line every day.How much money is actually working on-chain? Token Terminal gives a rather unflattering answer: less than 10%.
This figure refers to the proportion of stablecoins and tokenized assets deposited into DeFi protocols. In other words, over 90% of $USDT, $USDC, and other dollar substitutes that are minted daily just quietly stay in wallets, exchanges, and custody accounts, without becoming lendable funds in lending pools.
This is not a new problem, but it is especially glaring now. The total amount of stablecoins has been rising continuously, and tokenized assets have been repeatedly described as a trillion-dollar track, yet new money coming in has not flowed through the pipeline into old protocols like $AAVE and $UNI. The money is piled up at the door, but the door hasn’t been opened.
Why doesn’t it go in? First, the returns are insufficient; when funds are abundant, lending rates are suppressed very low; second, custody inertia—most money prefers to stay where the counterparty is clear; third, tokenized assets are still in the early stages, with no standards on whether collateral is accepted or how liquidation is handled.
So the meaning of this data is not "DeFi is unused," but that the next round of incremental growth is not inside the crypto circle, but in that 90% of money that hasn’t moved yet. Whoever can make tokenized government bond assets into standardized collateral that can be liquidated will capture this increment, and the infrastructure for assets like $LINK going on-chain is also here.
Is 10% a ceiling or a starting line? No one can answer that. But one thing is certain: relying on shuffling existing coins between protocols leaves very little room.The "ID cards" of on-chain AI Agents have already been issued 1.88 million times, but the more I look at this number, the calmer I become.
According to agenteconomy statistics, as of November 3, about 1.88 million Agents have been registered across 24 chains in the ERC-8004 identity registries. Among them, the $BNB chain alone had 392,000 on October 26, with over 15,000 new registrations in one week.
Sounds impressive, but don't overlook two details: the statisticians themselves state this is just a "lower bound," as a single operator can batch register many IDs; the $BNB chain's count includes test, duplicate, and abandoned registrations, so it doesn't indicate whether an Agent has funds or is actively working.
My view: it's normal for the identity layer to lead, like phone numbers being issued before anyone makes calls. What really matters is "among Agents with identities, how many are continuously paying and taking orders." Until that ratio emerges, the ID count is more like an easily inflated metric. The risk lies here: projects that tell stories based on registration numbers will see their data collapse once the hype fades.
What do you think it takes for an Agent to truly be "working on-chain"?$BTC $BTC This rebound is more of a recovery after overselling and does not mean the risk has been cleared.
Previously, the price dropped to 75690, hitting a nearly seven-week low, followed by short-term buying that pushed it back up. However, it is worth noting that institutional funds remain cautious; on November 3, the spot BTC ETF still saw a net outflow of about $405 million, with long-term funds continuing to withdraw.
To confirm the sustainability of this rebound, three points need to be observed: the price stabilizing in the current range, ETF funds shifting from outflow to stable inflow, and trading volume increasing simultaneously. Until these conditions are met, it can only be defined as a rebound, not a trend reversal, and risk control should not be relaxed in operations. #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 The leader has something to say
US Midterm Elections: Democrats win control of both chambers of Congress — crypto prices initially shocked then stabilized, reflecting the tug-of-war between regulatory expectations and liquidity expectations.
Voting on November 3, the Democrats secured at least 218 seats in the House and took control of the Senate. When the results came out, BTC briefly dropped 2.8%, as the market worried about tighter consumer protection legislation and obstacles to CLARITY-type bills; but after uncertainty faded and the dollar weakened, BTC made a V-shaped rebound, returning above $78,000, rising about 2% intraday.
Looking at history over a longer term: after the 2014, 2018, and 2022 midterms, BTC fell in the weeks following election day but was higher than on election day one year later, with an average 12-month gain of about 54%; the bottom timing was not fixed (71 days, 39 days, 1 day), so “post-election must rise” can only be a long-term reference and does not help short-term positions.#US Midterm Elections: Democrats win control of both chambers of Congress
BTC current price is about 78,500, rebounding about 3.6% intraday from the low of 75,795, with resistance at 78,960; only a stable break above this level will extend the rally; if 75,795 is lost, the rebound may still be a bull trap. Coupled with continuous net outflows from spot ETFs and a fear index of only 26, the political good news has not translated into capital inflows.
Heartfelt words: Elections are just the weather, the capital flow is the season. Don’t treat one result as a trend signal; position according to levels and data, not emotions $ZEC
$BTC $ETH We are currently in a phase where accumulation and game theory intertwine; this is not a window for chasing rallies. Are the long positions you hold following the structure or the sentiment? I reviewed the price movements after the 2018 and 2022 U.S. midterm elections, and BTC indeed experienced significant pullbacks post-election. But this time there is a key difference: in those two instances, the price was close to the previous year's lows, whereas now BTC is about 33% above the year's low. The position is different, and so is the derivatives structure. This is what truly concerns me. During high-level consolidation, perpetual contract open interest tends to be thicker than at lows, and funding rates are more easily pushed positive by bullish sentiment. Once the price stagnates, the holding cost of long leverage starts to bite, and even a slight downward wick can trigger a layer of forced liquidations, creating a self-reinforcing squeeze. Conversely, if the funding rate remains neutral or slightly negative and the price refuses to drop, shorts become the vulnerable side, and any upward breakout can easily turn into a short squeeze fuel. Therefore, historical charts can only serve as background noise. What really determines the rhythm are the open interest distribution, funding rates, and liquidation concentration zones. The bullish path lies in: after digesting overheated leverage during high-level consolidation, spot buying supports the price, and funding rates return to neutral—this kind of accumulation is actually healthy turnover. The risk is: if funding rates remain persistently high while the price fails to make new highs, the crowding of longs will accelerate the decline, and altcoins usually experience more exaggerated pullbacks than BTC. My current judgment is that this period is better suited for monitoring structure rather than guessing direction. Watch if open interest cools down, watch if funding rates shift fromBored, I went to check Brother Maji's open positions and found that he has an ETH inverted pyramid plus BTC short combination.
I feel like every single order here maxes out the fault tolerance; if the market doesn't cooperate even a little, the first thing to collapse is the structure, not the judgment.
The ETH position is the most typical. At the low of 2269, he only dared to put in 3600 as the base position, but when it rose to 2427, he heavily added over 9800, an inverted pyramid add-on, pushing the average price to the most uncomfortable spot. Once it pulled back, the base position's profit was completely wiped out, and there was still a floating loss of 1.3 million. This kind of addition is equivalent to blocking the retreat path first.
The second position is a 5x long-term short on hype, opened at 72.8, with a floating loss of 3.46 million. Betting on valuation reversion logic is not wrong, but in a bull market, overvaluation can still rise more ridiculously; holding hard on the left side, time is on the opponent's side.
The BTC 40x short was opened at 78104, currently with a small profit, but 40x leaves no room to hold the position; if it really stabilizes above 80,000, this position will be the first to be forced out.
On the news front, tonight ADP has already been released and is hotter than expected; at 23:00, ISM data is still pending; the election results flipping the two chambers have just come out. The short-term market is a hedge between data and sentiment. In terms of market status, BTC is still grinding above the threshold, ETH rose then fell back, SOL is sideways and relatively weak, and ZEC is still the one that can run the most.
Going forward, I’m watching two triggers: one is BTC stabilizing above 80,000, educating the bears first; the other is whether ETH can hold its average price zone. My view remains unchanged: add positions only after a pullback confirmation; the inverted pyramid that gets heavier as it rises—whoever copies it pays the tuition first.Reserve certification is about 100,000 coins, CEO verbally about 150,000 coins, a difference of about 50,000 BTC.
CoinDesk quoted Paolo Ardoino at the Lugano Plan ₿ Forum saying: Tether holds about 150,000 BTC; estimated at about 78,340 at the time of writing, approximately $11.75 billion. Q3 reserve certified BTC line is about $8.37 billion (at about 83,621 then), implying about 100,060 coins, about 50,000 less than the verbal figure — the company previously stated that investment holdings and stablecoin reserves are separate.
Honestly, what really needs to be watched is which ledger the discrepancy falls into, not whether the verbal number is big or small.
Which do you trust more: the missing approximately 50,000 coins are in the investment holdings, or were they actually already counted in the reserve narrative?
Whenever the stablecoin giant updates its coin hoarding numbers, I break it down, so don’t miss out.
$BTC Trump said in one sentence, "We have done our best," basically declaring the overall situation settled.
What does it mean? The control of Congress is lost, and the previously hyped crypto-friendly bills and crypto capital plans are directly blocked and hard to advance.
The Democrats have taken both the House and Senate, a rare big win in forty years, but the biggest risk for the crypto community is not just the bills being stalled. The worst fear is sudden geopolitical news after election losses. Once news of military action in the Middle East breaks out, it will cause a double-sided shock, hitting both bulls and bears, and no one can escape.
The market has already priced in pessimistic expectations in advance, with Bitcoin showing a bearish pattern on the daily chart, ETFs continuously seeing outflows, and $ETH ETH ETFs bleeding even longer, making its rebound inherently weaker than $BTC BTC. Those who have recently doubled their gains are advised to take profits first and not to chase the tail end of the rally.$BTC
The nonfarm payrolls came out higher than expected. US stocks are all green pre-market, Trump Media down 10%, Tesla down 5.4%, Nasdaq futures have turned negative.
Normally BTC should have dropped along. It didn't. 78262, 24h still +1.4%, just 463 dollars below the 24h high of 78725.
I'm watching the volume. At 13:00 the 1H candle had 599 coins, 15:00 446, 18:00 312, 20:00 288, 21:00 222, steadily shrinking. The price is actually pushing up, the lows are raised step by step from 77264.
Open interest is also retreating. When I wrote at 19:53 it was 2.793 billion USD, now 2.767 billion, down 26 million. The fee rate is 0.0096%, not even reaching the 0.01% benchmark, premium -0.0476% still at a discount.
Shorts are reducing, longs are unwilling to pay a premium. This market is the most passive—it's not being pushed by anyone, no one is selling.
I never add positions at a top formed by shrinking volume. I'll wait for a volume surge to hold before considering.
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 This crude oil market is really interesting.
When prices rise, they talk about war risks.
When prices fall, they say supply is recovering.
A few days ago, people were worried about not being able to buy oil.
Now, it's the opposite.
Is there almost no one willing to hold at $100 anymore?
Brent crude was previously above $110.
Now it has directly fallen below $100,
with a single-day drop of 3.6%📉
Earlier, the Middle East situation was tense,
and the market feared transportation disruptions.
This added a layer of war premium to oil prices.
Now that transportation is gradually recovering,
and concerns about supply interruptions have eased,
the risk premium that was previously driving prices up
may naturally be squeezed out slowly.
But the drop in oil prices
is not necessarily all good news for Bitcoin.
If the decline is due to supply recovery,
energy costs decrease,
and inflationary pressure may ease,
potentially giving the Federal Reserve more room to cut rates.
However, if the drop is due to weakening economic demand,
and people are using less oil,
then falling oil prices might actually be bad news.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC The $UNI exchange has disabled UNI withdrawals. After 7.02 million tokens were dumped, the reserve hole on the exchange's account has been fully exposed.
ETH in the same wallet has long been available for withdrawal, but UNI is stuck and can't be moved, clearly showing there is no spot inventory available.
The dumped tokens won't magically reappear; the exchange will have to go to the secondary market to buy them back to make up the shortfall. This obvious rigid buy order is holding down the market here, making it hard for the price not to rebound in the future.
#UNI
$UNI
👇#AMD数据中心收入近翻倍，营收及指引均超预期
AMD's Q3 results broadly exceeded expectations, yet the stock experienced a high open followed by a decline, initially rising 7.5% pre-market to $518 before quickly falling below the $500 mark. Under high valuation, the margin for error in performance is extremely tight.
Fundamental highlights are clear: total revenue reached $13.38 billion, up 45% year-over-year; adjusted EPS was $2.09, up 74% year-over-year, both surpassing market consensus. The core growth driver, the data center business, generated $8.55 billion in revenue, soaring 97% year-over-year and accounting for nearly 64% of total revenue. The AI computing power growth attribute continues to materialize, further widening the fundamental divergence with Intel.
The decline trigger came from marginal flaws: Q4 gross margin guidance at 55%, slightly below the market expectation of 55.3%; to stockpile the next-generation Helios products, free cash flow plunged from $1.5 billion to $554 million. At the current high pricing of 125x PE, the market demands near-perfect earnings reports, and any detail falling short of expectations triggers concentrated profit-taking.
Significant sector divergence is evident, with storage-related stocks performing relatively strong, Qualcomm and Nvidia showing mediocre performance; Tesla-related stocks continue to be weak due to political risk drag.
$AMD $FIL's decentralized storage sector inherently has a unique narrative appeal, but upon closer examination, the tokenomics of this network still have many aspects worth considering. Filecoin has built an open decentralized storage trading market that connects global storage providers with users who need storage.
Whether it can sustain long-term success depends not just on the concept but on real-world implementation: whether there is continuously growing commercial paid demand, if data retrieval is stable and reliable, whether pricing can compete with centralized cloud storage, and at the same time maintain the motivation for all network participants to stay engaged long-term. Ultimately, the value of this infrastructure must be realized through genuine on-chain usage; relying solely on incentive subsidies is unlikely to support lasting value.
⚠️ This is only a market perspective and does not constitute investment advice. 11.4 Pre-market: Blue Wave Sweeps, Initial Drop Then Rally, Crypto and Stocks Follow Same Script, Tonight's Data Sets the Tone
Election results landed harsher than expected — Democrats swept both chambers of Congress, flipping Texas and Kansas blue. But the market panicked only briefly: Asia markets first dropped then recovered, Nasdaq 100 futures rebounded from -2%, Bitcoin bounced from a low of 75,700 to above 78,000, all driven by the same logic — Trump still holds veto power, a divided government = policy gridlock = all bad news priced in. Now, US pre-market dips again, hardware stocks underwater, not due to fundamentals worsening but because the market switches back to the economic script: tonight's ADP + ISM, Friday's nonfarm payrolls, and four earnings reports all beating expectations just prove — AI demand is real, the drop was sentiment, not performance.
【This Election Game】 Senate at least 54 seats, 7 states flipped blue (Taralico first Democratic senator from Texas since 1988, Kansas first since 1932). House over 245 seats, Jeffries to become first Black House Speaker. The surprise was the Senate sweep, causing a few hours of panic, but "veto power = nothing gets done" is the most familiar script: Korean Composite Index reversed from -4% to positive, gold back above 4000, US Treasuries strengthened across the board. The biggest rally was in clean energy (Hanwha +22%, ENPH +7.8%, FSLR +9.4%) — this is the real trade theme of the Blue Wave.
【Why the Pre-market Dip Again】 ① Risk-off ahead of data: ADP/ISM coming tonight. ② AI regulatory shadow: tighter approvals + return controversies pressuring valuations, but Trump can veto AI regulation bills, strategists say this is an overreaction. ③ Individual heavyweight stock troubles: AAPL down consecutively (memory price hikes squeezing margins), TSLA -5%, SpaceX -7%. Meanwhile, the AI chain is actually diverging — all four earnings beat expectations.
【Four Earnings Reports: AI Demand Is Real】
AMD: $13.38B (+45%), data center $8.55B (+97%), Q4 guidance $17B, 2027 growth over 80%, after-hours up 9%.
SMCI: $19.9B (about 3x), full-year raised to $72-82B, after-hours +11%.
ALAB: $585M (+154%).
ANET: $3.66B (+58.5%), first 2027 guidance $18.5B, AI network doubled to $7B, after-hours +15%. INTC miss due to own supply chain issues, not industry demand.
【BTC/ETH: Crypto and Stocks Same Script, Drop Then Rally】 On election night BTC peaked near 78,000, then plunged to 75,700 (7-week low) after vote counting, rebounded this morning above 78,300 (+2,300 from low), ETH recovered from 2,260 to around 2,300.
Three logics: ① Result clarified within hours = uncertainty cleared.
② Divided government = crypto-friendly legislation blocked, but aggressive bad legislation also stalled, market loves gridlock.
③ Oversold + options bottom fishing (election date options traded $660M, $420M calls).
Headwinds: BTC down 41% from October highs, ETF outflows continue (year-to-date -$1.84B), after Binance hack last week ETF net outflow $884M, Democratic sweep shadows "Clear Act" legislation, anti-crypto Senator Brown from Ohio returns, legislation in January tougher.
【Tonight's Outlook】 BTC support at 76,800 (50-week MA)/76,000, resistance 78,000-79,000. If Nasdaq stabilizes at 22:30 US open, BTC follows up; weak data means both fall. Only above 78,000 bulls win, below 77,000 reduce risk. ETH tracks BTC, 2,300 key, above that target 2,400, below 2,250 turns weak.
【AI Chain Segment Strategy】 Tone: Regulatory shadow ≠ fundamental damage, earnings king, pick validated names, avoid high leverage.
① Storage (MU/SNDK/Western Digital/SK Hynix/Samsung): price hike logic independent of election, most resistant to regulation. Apple said memory price hikes squeeze margins = strong demand, insufficient supply. Asia session Samsung/SK Hynix down only 1%, pricing power intact. Pullback is opportunity (not this week).
② Chips (AMD/AVGO/NVDA/INTC/MRVL): only trust earnings-validated. AMD nailed AI chip demand, INTC's problem is internal. MRVL down 12% due to LITE merger, waiting for completion.
③ Optical comms (COHR/LITE/AAOI): network demand validated by ANET, avoid pair undergoing integration.
④ Equipment (AMAT/LRCX/KLA/Teradyne): semiconductor equipment beta, trade swings not faith.
⑤ Cloud vendors (CRWV/ORCL/MSFT/GOOG): regulatory hotspot. CRWV over 10x leverage most vulnerable, Microsoft and Google self-build + diversified impact smaller, avoid short term.
⑥ Cybersecurity (PANW/CRWD): hidden election beneficiaries, tighter regulation → more security spending, CRWD pushes AI "kill switch" + acquired Fiddler AI, cybersecurity trio outperform hardware.
⑦ Counter trade: clean energy + gold are true election beneficiaries, AI chain funds rotate, watch the seesaw.
【Tonight's Data + Next Days】 ADP expected 69-75K (prior 90K): low = easing heats up, high = soft landing, ISM expected 54.8: watch price 74 and employment sub 50.1, after-hours Qualcomm + SEZL earnings. Thursday initial claims (expect 197K), Friday nonfarm = make or break: expect +59K, prior +29K, unemployment 4.2%.
Script: 50-150K and no spike in unemployment = soft landing supports earnings.
Another surprise miss = recession trade returns, hardware hit again, cybersecurity advantage clearer.
Big beat = high valuation growth stocks get hit first.
【Positions】 PANW: election slightly positive, catalyst 11/18 earnings, hold + wait. CRWD: best AI regulatory play, healthy above 225. SEZL: earnings tonight after market = first position event this week, watch ① revenue growth ② bad debt provisions ③ holiday season guidance, no add before earnings, stop loss if broken, otherwise hold.
$BTC $ETH $AMD $TSLA $ALAB Brothers, although the market is jumping up and down, remember one thing: Dr. Sun's place is not without food! No matter how bad this market is, as long as the direction is right, there will still be meat to eat.
Look at the current $ETH chart, Ethereum is hovering around 2317, and 82% of retail bulls are still rushing in crazily. That short position I entered at the high of 2354 is now comfortably holding a 4.63% profit. Why so stable? Because the 422 buy orders below are just bait, the 105 sell orders above are the real main force suppression. That 82% bulls are the meat we talk about!
The trend hasn't changed, keep holding the short position steadily. No matter how the market tosses and turns
$ZEC $BTC #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 Brothers, has gold taken off as expected on this long-term run? $XAU
When it previously broke down, it scared everyone, but I said early on that was just a shakeout, the foundation is still there, letting everyone accumulate in batches at low levels. Feeling good now, right!
From 3870 straight up to breaking 4051, the logic of safe-haven demand and central bank gold purchases has fully played out. Those who held without selling are enjoying big gains today!
However, there will be resistance around 4050 in the short term, so some consolidation and shakeout is needed. Everyone should take profits in batches first, pocket some cash to feel secure, and keep stop-losses on the rest. We'll continue to wait for 4180. The long run is a marathon, don’t rush to sprint. For those who haven’t gotten on board yet, don’t stubbornly chase the highs—wait for a pullback! $BTC $ZEC #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 #AMDQ3DataCenterUp97%
$SOL is trading around $92.99 after dropping from the $103–$104 zone. Buyers recently defended the $89.89 support, pushing price back toward $93. Now, all eyes are on $94.62. A breakout above this level and the descending trendline could open the way toward $97.11 and $100.38
My DCA approach is to accumulate gradually around $92–$93, with additional entries near $90.50 and $89.90. No need to rush!
Entry: $92–$93
TP1: $94.62
TP2: $97.11
TP3: $100.38
SL: $89.50. TeraWulf secures Google credit support, endorsing the Justified data center campus in Hawesville, Kentucky, corresponding to a long-term lease commitment of approximately $19 billion with Anthropic.
Google provides contractual credit support for the anticipated debt financing, with Alphabet's senior unsecured debt currently rated AA+ by S&P and Aa2 by Moody's. The project is expected to begin phased delivery by the end of 2027, continuing through the second quarter of 2028. Source: PANews.
Two points to observe: whether Google's credit support can translate into low-cost debt financing; and the actual delivery and payment schedule of Anthropic's lease. If financing is secured and installation proceeds on schedule, WULF's valuation flexibility will open up; however, construction period or tenant risks could amplify volatility. The involved stock is WULF, with a bullish bias, but it is a U.S. stock rather than a crypto-native asset, so it does not directly catalyze prices of mainstream coins like BTC, but rather reflects cross-market sentiment in computing power.
Are you more focused on the financing being secured or the delivery schedule? $DOGE For Dogecoin, the community itself is its most precious moat. It well demonstrates one thing: internet meme culture and spontaneous community resonance among ordinary people can continuously bring traffic and popularity to the asset.
But popularity is ultimately just a bonus and cannot replace fundamentals. Even with the most active community on the entire network, relying solely on sentiment and consensus still makes it difficult to sustain a long-term stable trend. When trading DOGE, understanding market sentiment and reading collective behavior is far more important than simply betting on "faith". 🚨 BITCOIN IS RECOVERING… BUT IS THIS THE REAL BREAKOUT?
$BTC is back above $78K after dipping below $76K. 📈
ETF outflows are slowing, but bulls still need to prove their strength.
🎯 $80K is the key resistance to watch.
No FOMO. Wait for confirmation. Protect your capital!
Bullish breakout or another bull trap? 👀
#Bitcoin #BTC #CryptoMarket #Trading
#DailyOrbit #CircleQ3营收超预期，USDC链上交易量增长49%
Circle's Q3 earnings exceeded expectations: total revenue and reserve interest income combined reached $865 million, a 17% year-over-year increase; adjusted EBITDA hit $317 million, soaring 85% year-over-year, significantly enhancing profitability.
USDC ecosystem shows structural growth: average circulation was $73.3 billion, up only 8% year-over-year, but on-chain transaction volume surged 49% to $13.9 trillion, accounting for 79% of the total stablecoin market transactions, up 13 percentage points from last year. Quarterly minting and redemption totaled a record $208 billion, with an average daily turnover of about $2.3 billion, confirming that USDC is shifting from a yield-bearing holding tool to a high-frequency medium for payments, settlements, and DeFi.
New business accelerates simultaneously: Over 100 institutions have built applications on the Arc mainnet; CPN payment's annualized transaction volume surged 15 times year-over-year, currently exceeding $58 billion; over 99% of x402 proxy payments are settled in USDC.
It should be noted that revenue still heavily depends on U.S. Treasury interest; if entering a rate-cutting cycle, growth in scale alone may not fully offset the pressure from narrowing interest spreads. The long-term highlight lies in the GENIUS Act coming into effect, where compliant digital dollars will penetrate enterprise-level payments and global settlement infrastructure, potentially reshaping valuation logic.
$CRCL So far in this wave of rebound, we haven't seen any huge short-term chips rushing into Coinbase yet.
However..... just one hour ago, there was a transfer of 2200 BTC. I wonder if this counts as large?
Reposted from MurphyRecently, the overall crypto market has entered a period of high-level volatile consolidation. Bitcoin (BTC) has been repeatedly tugging between the range of 77,000 to 80,000 USD. At this critical psychological and technical level, the movement of institutional funds has become the core variable influencing market sentiment. Latest data shows the market is facing a dual challenge of "spot ETF fund outflows" and "slowing corporate treasury accumulation." Core data insight: ETF massive outflows and MicroStrategy's differentiated actions According to SoSoValue data monitoring, the US spot BTC ETF experienced a cumulative net outflow of approximately 1.042 billion USD during October 30 and November 2, with total net assets subsequently falling to about 98.1 billion USD. This phenomenon reflects that under macro expectation adjustments or profit-taking at high levels, some traditional funds have chosen to withdraw temporarily. Meanwhile, as an important "buyer" in the market, corporate treasuries are still accumulating but the scale of coin purchases has been significantly limited. Specifically: · Strategy (MicroStrategy): Last week, it spent 65.5 million USD to increase holdings by 811 BTC. However, it is worth noting that during the same period, it repurchased about 208 million USD of preferred stock. This action indicates that MicroStrategy is adjusting its capital structure, maintaining its BTC base holdings while allocating some funds to support the company's own stock price and balance sheet, rather than recklessly going "all-in" on Bitcoin.Is the current $ETH market a bull trap or a real reversal?
In short: After bottoming at 2172, the bulls are climbing step by step — look at the lows at the bottom, each one higher than the last, this is an ascending channel, this is buyer control. The price just surged to a high of 2338, many are starting to get weak in the knees, asking: can 2300 hold?
From on-chain funds perspective, capital is continuously flowing in, the main force's intention is clear: to shake out the unsteady retail investors with volatility. Now as long as 2300 holds effectively, there is a lot of room above!
Current price is 2310, although bullish, do not chase the highs directly to avoid short-term shakeout losses. A prudent approach is to wait for a pullback to the 2295–2305 range (around the 2300 whole number level, which is a repeatedly confirmed step support), stop loss at 2280, target 2340–2380.
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 Mainstream coins are still consolidating, but privacy coins are surprisingly holding up well this round
This morning when I checked the market, BTC dipped to around 75,600 at its lowest, then rebounded to about 77,800. ETH hovered near 2,270, and SOL was at 92. There was no dramatic crash, yet there was hardly any decent sustained buying.
In contrast, ZEC and XMR have been relatively resilient during this correction, even showing some rebounds. The market isn’t completely out of funds; rather, risk appetite is diverging—some capital prefers to hedge or follow anti-censorship narratives instead of continuing to leverage mainstream coins.
With the Democrats taking both chambers, regulatory expectations have intensified, making privacy coin narratives easier to revive. But such divergence usually doesn’t last long; either funds flow back to mainstream coins or the overall market continues to face pressure.
One pitfall is mistaking short-term resilience for an independent trend. Privacy coins are more volatile and less liquid, so rebounds come easily but pullbacks hurt just as much.
What’s your current view on privacy coins?
Do you hold ZEC or XMR? With mainstream coins consolidating and privacy coins relatively resilient, are you holding on, adding more, or have you already reduced your position? Share your reasoning.
$ZEC $XMR $BTC #PrivacyCoins #MidtermElections #CryptoMarketScroll and Gnosis both change direction.
Scroll proposes to leave the versatile zkEVM model to focus on AI network and privacy.
Gnosis plans to shift from an independent L1 to the Ethereum Economic Zone in spring 2027, aiming to save 7–10 million USD in annual operating costs.
Two different directions but both reflect a trend:
Blockchain doesn't have to do everything. Finding the right niche and creating real value can be more important than racing to become the next L1.Details of the $ETH Binance hack have come out, and it really was a man-made disaster...
The operations engineer was phished by a fake recruiter from a big company, used the company computer for the interview, and to pass the second round, actually directly downloaded and installed the "test code repository" provided by the other party, resulting in being infiltrated for a whole month to figure out the permissions.
No matter how strong the security system is, it can't withstand the heart of an employee wanting to change jobs.$SOXL's semiconductor movement in the US pre-market today was like a roller coaster. SOXL hit a low of 65.53 this morning before bouncing back, rising continuously for six hours to reach 79.28.
By evening, the situation reversed again, with SOXL dropping all the way to 70.58. The bulls have really had no luck; these past two weeks have been terrible for them 🤒After $BTC retraced, the short reference at 78,585 became invalid, which is more worth watching first than the distant target.
JONZi's short plan uses about 78,429 as the entry reference and 78,585 as the stop loss, looking down toward approximately 77,333. These are his conditions and risk boundaries, not an order I recommend copying; especially with a tight stop loss plan, slippage, fees, and execution timing can all change the actual outcome.
Kraken quotes about $78,209, below the entry reference of this plan. This snapshot cannot prove that his order is still active, nor can it be used to calculate his actual profit. My personal market view is not to chase shorts after a retracement: first see if the rebound can recover the entry reference; if it further stabilizes above the invalidation reference, the assumption of resistance and retracement should be withdrawn. If the rebound is still pushed back, then observe whether the support below loosens.
My comprehensive judgment is that being closer to the target does not mean the risk-reward of a new entry is better. I will first confirm where I can still admit a mistake, rather than chasing to prove the direction just because others have already moved a bit. When boundaries fluctuate repeatedly, reducing attempts is more important than loosening stop losses. Would you first watch the rebound close or whether the support below can hold? This is just an exchange of views and does not constitute investment advice.The French National Assembly has done something rare in Europe: it has included self-custody wallets in the tax form.
The amendment requires taxpayers to declare self-custodied crypto assets worth at least 100,000 euros, with 150 votes in favor, 44 against, and 8 abstentions. The value is calculated as of December 31 of the tax year.
The key is "self-custody." Previously, regulatory focus was on exchanges—real-name verification, travel rules, tax forms—all targeting custodians. This time, it bypasses platforms and directly asks individuals: how much is the asset corresponding to the private key you hold worth? This acknowledges that on-chain assets can bypass intermediaries, and regulators can only go after holders.
The 100,000-euro threshold is worth noting. It’s not zero reporting; it draws a line: small amounts are exempt, while mid-to-high net worth individuals are named. This is more practical than full reporting, with lower costs and fewer disputes. But once the threshold is set, lowering it becomes the norm.
It is not yet in effect. It is only an amendment to the 2027 finance bill and must be retained in the final text to count. The National Assembly must complete the first reading by November 17, and the Senate will start debating on November 20. Any stage could rewrite it.
There is no direct short-term impact on $BTC and $ETH. The real change is the demonstration effect: core EU countries making self-custody reporting routine, and other countries’ finance ministries will follow suit.
One question worth pondering: with the reporting obligation falling on individuals, is self-custody still a low-cost option? Once compliance costs become explicit, some people will return to custodial platforms—which is exactly what regulators want to see.420,000 ETH Disappearance Mystery: How Did the Hacker Bypass Binance's Defenses?
It wasn't a private key leak, but "permissions were borrowed."
The hacker lurked for 5 months: fake interview to poison the development machine → tampered with pyenv/Homebrew components → stole wallet deployment tokens → took control of the signature service container. Ethereum side dealt another blow: pre-signed 50 EIP-7702 authorizations, betting on one nonce, temporarily "delegating" Binance's hot wallet to the cleaning contract. Suspending withdrawals was useless; newly incoming coins would also be automatically swept.
The 420,000 ETH didn't vanish: stablecoins were frozen, ETH was dispersed via THORChain/Relay cross-chain, sent to hundreds of new addresses, some converted to BTC, visible on-chain and untouchable by CEX.
Essence: MPC wasn't broken; what was broken was "the terminal and permissions that allow signing." The chain is normal, the people are not.#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权
The Democrats swept both chambers of Congress, breaking the market's prior consensus expectation of a "divided Congress." The policy focus shifts from fiscal expansion to fiscal restraint, causing differentiated impacts on major asset classes and the crypto market.
Short-term regulatory uncertainty rises on the crypto side: the industry-backed CLARITY Act is likely to stall, delaying the legislative timeline. However, Trump still holds presidential veto power, so an extreme strong regulatory scenario may not materialize. On the market front, BTC hit a seven-week low of $75,690 before a V-shaped rebound, driven mainly by short-term oversold recovery rather than election benefits; ETH has pulled back nearly 20% from its high, with ETF net outflows for seven consecutive days, institutional funds have yet to return, and no trend reversal signals have appeared.
At the major asset level, U.S. Treasuries are the clearest beneficiaries, with yields tending downward; the dollar is under short-term pressure, gold is relatively strong; U.S. stock sectors are increasingly differentiated, with AI tech sectors under pressure and healthcare sectors relatively favored.
The election impact is relatively short-term; the current rebound is tentatively an oversold recovery, and whether it upgrades to a reversal depends on the sustainability of ETF funds. The mid-term main themes remain anchored on Federal Reserve policy, AI industry trends, and geopolitical risks.
$BTC $ETH Uniswap is down 0.42% while several major assets are trading higher.
It’s a reminder that a broader crypto recovery doesn’t automatically lift every sector at the same pace.
DeFi tokens still need their own demand and momentum. UNI’s next move will be worth watching.#AMDQ3DataCenterUp97% #Solana stablecoin card monthly spending hits a new high
The leader has something to say
Today, bought long at 75800, took profit and exited at 78000, pocketing 2200 points, about 2.90% on spot. This trade was rewarded for the position, not the market.
First, about entry. Today's low was 75736–75795, entering at 75800 right at the bottom of the day's most panicked dip, buying the leveraged longs that were liquidated, not based on trend conviction. Over 90,000 people liquidated about $419 million in 24 hours, with longs about $290 million; the fear and greed index was only 26. The colder the sentiment, the higher the odds for a dip buy, provided stop loss is well set.
Next, about exit. 78000 is about 1.2% below today's high of 78960, an active realization before the resistance zone, not greedy for the last leg. At the close, the coin price rose near 78500, about 500 points above the exit price but did not break 78960; spot ETFs still had net outflows, with $643 million redeemed on 10/30, and further outflows of $399 million and $200 million on 11/2 and 11/3 respectively, indicating funds do not support chasing longs. This trade was not sold at the highest point but sold before the risk-reward ratio turned unfavorable, which is discipline.
BTC review: current price about 78500, intraday rebound about 3.6% from the low, structure still an oversold recovery rather than a reversal. The upper resistance is 78960; only if it holds above and breaks through will the recovery extend; the lower support is 75736–75795, the bottom of the dip; breaking below means the support fails, risking a second dip.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC NVDA current price $206.69 (24h +2.29%, 7d +2.50%, 30d -5.00%). Short-term resistance $150, support $132, volume breakout bullish, breakdown bearish. Data for reference only.It's often said that platform tokens rely on burning to support their valuation, but when I actually looked into the cash flows of BNB, HYPE, and OKB, I found they are quite different. $BNB is the one with real income. Q3 network revenue was $54.2 million, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 54%, but daily active addresses dropped 14% to 2.1 million. Tokenized stock trading volume was $25.6 billion, which looks large, but 80% is concentrated in just one product, QQQB. There were 37 burns totaling 1$XAG is in the same family as gold, but silver is much more volatile, rising more aggressively than gold and falling more sharply as well.
First, to answer the most pressing question: Will it fall below the previous low of 48.73 again?
From the current market situation, after holding at 48.73, it pulled up a large bullish candle, which signals a bottoming and stabilization; the probability of breaking the previous low again in the short term is low.
However, this does not mean it is absolutely safe. The non-farm payrolls report on Friday is a big risk. If the data significantly exceeds expectations, the rate cut expectations will cool down immediately. Silver is highly volatile, so there is a possibility of a second test of this low point.
Can you go long?
Yes, you can, but remember, silver is a highly elastic asset, so your position size should be lighter than gold! Prioritize buying on dips.S&P 500 Market Analysis & "Prediction of All Time"
The provided S&P 500 charts show a strong, upward-trending bull market, currently trading at historic highs near 6,000. For over two years, the trend has been a clear case of "higher highs and higher lows," showing excellent market momentum.
This powerful rally didn't happen in a vacuum, though. The charts show us that corrections are a normal Why Did Bitcoin Rise Despite Trump's Midterm Election Defeat? Understanding the Power of Second-Level Thinking! A follower recently asked an interesting question: If Trump's midterm election defeat is negative for the crypto market, why did $BTC rise instead of continuing to fall? The answer lies in understanding the difference between first-level and second-level thinking. 1. The Market Had Already Priced in the Bad News Markets don't simply react to whether news is good or bad. They react to tBrazilian cryptocurrency exchange Mercado Bitcoin recently suffered a sophisticated hacking attack. According to blockchain analysis firm Chainalysis, the loss is estimated at approximately $49 million, involving 17 different blockchains. The exchange separately stated that it intercepted $11 million of the stolen funds and promised that customers would not suffer any financial losses. Service access remains suspended at present, and investigations are ongoing. Scope and Response This attack targeted multiple chains, highlighting the increasingly complex security threats faced by centralized exchanges. As one of Latin America's largest crypto platforms, Mercado Bitcoin has yet to disclose more details about the nature of the breach or the specific assets affected. The exchange's assurance regarding customer fund security may help mitigate immediate reputational damage, but the service suspension has raised questions about operational resilience. Chainalysis attributes the $49 million loss to 17 chains, underscoring the cross-chain footprint of modern crypto theft. Attackers are increasingly leveraging cross-chain bridges and multi-chain infrastructure to obfuscate fund flows, making recovery efforts more challenging. The interception of $11 million indicates that some centralized intervention is possible, potentially through stablecoin issuers or exchange blacklists. Industry Impact This incident serves as a harsh reminder that even mature exchanges remain vulnerable to sophisticated attacks. With crypto adoption growing in emerging markets like Brazil, security and trust420,000 ETH Suspense Case: $2.85 Billion Frozen, $2.4 Billion Outflow, Ethereum's "Unfreezable" Original Sin Exposed
The total impact of Binance's recent hack is approximately $6.34 billion, with about $2.85 billion frozen on-chain, mainly in freezable stablecoins like USDT and USDC. Of the remaining roughly $3.3 billion, the attacker has converted most into native assets such as Ethereum and Bitcoin, holding about 420,000 to 467,000 ETH and around 18,000 BTC, totaling approximately $2.4 billion in value.
This exposes the fundamental difference in crypto assets: stablecoins can be frozen by issuers, while native assets, once moved out of custodial wallets, are almost impossible to reverse. The attacker's strategy is clear—convert what can be frozen into what cannot, then launder in batches through mixers and DEXs.
For ETH, this is not a protocol vulnerability but a failure at the custody layer. However, the unresolved 420,000 ETH still represent potential selling pressure, which will form a continuous sell-off as hackers gradually launder the funds. The industry's lesson is clear: self-custody of large assets and regularly revoking approvals are the long-term security baseline.$NVO
There is strong demand for weight loss drugs. What questions does Novo Nordisk still need to answer?
The company is entering this week's earnings window. Demand fulfillment requires the cooperation of production capacity, accessibility, payer coverage, and net selling price; prescription volume alone cannot explain all profit changes.
If competition or discounts cause revenue growth to lag behind prescription growth, profit expectations need adjustment; if supply improves while maintaining reasonable prices and retention, the quality of commercialization is more solid. R&D and regulatory outcomes may also change the competitive landscape.$XAU Why has the recent gold trend almost mirrored Bitcoin's rise and fall❓ Is it a good time to go long now❓
Because the market is mainly focused on 【US Treasury real interest rates and rate cut expectations】, which act like a single master switch controlling the market
When interest rates go down, gold and crypto both rise; when rate expectations tighten, both adjust together, so their rhythms sync up
Gold's major trend is currently upward, suitable for buying on dips
First key level around 4020, with strong support at 3990–4000
Take profit target for long positions is initially 4100; if broken, look for a further rise of 50~100 USD👀 Looking back at history, $BTC experienced significant drops after the 2018 and 2022 US midterm elections.
But there is a key difference:
In both instances, BTC was near the low point of the past year.
Right now, BTC's price is about 33% above the annual low.
Currently, there is no clear indication that this time will repeat the previous downward pattern.
History can be referenced, but not directly copied.
$BTC