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Strategy shareholders approved an amendment allowing daily dividend accrual for $STRF, $STRC, $STRK and $STRD, with preliminary results showing 99.3% in favor. A notable step for Strategy's preferred stock lineup.Tonight's Federal Reserve meeting focuses not on interest rates, but on whether there will be another rate hike in December.
Strictly speaking, the results will be announced at 2:00 AM Beijing time on October 29, with a press conference at 2:30 AM. This meeting does not include a dot plot; the current interest rate range is 3.75%—4.00%. The market expects about a 90% probability of rates remaining unchanged and about a 10% chance of a 25 basis point hike.
Therefore, holding steady itself is unlikely to drive a sustained rally; the real market driver will be the post-meeting statements.
If rates are held steady while emphasizing that inflation remains high and a December hike is still possible, this would be a "hawkish pause." The US dollar and Treasury yields may strengthen. BTC key level to watch is 80000, with support at 79200 if broken; ETH targets 2320, SOL targets 100.
If rates are held steady and the market downplays the likelihood of a hike, the market will trade as if it's good news. BTC holding above 81600 could challenge 82500—84500, ETH targets 2400, SOL targets 103—106.
If there is an unexpected rate hike, short-term volatility will increase significantly, and BTC may quickly retest around 78000.
I think a rate hike is unlikely tonight, but the tone will not clearly turn dovish. The market is more likely to rally first and then reprice based on the press conference, so it is not advisable to take heavy directional bets before the results are announced.This UBS report is a typical case of hindsight bias; Brent crude has already hit the $110 mark, and only then did they sluggishly raise the target price. The speed of revising the research report simply can't keep up with the pace of crude oil's rally. $CL $BTC $ETH
But there are indeed some scary data points hidden in the report. Freight rates for tankers shipping oil from the Middle East to China have soared to $30 to $40 per barrel, with shipping costs nearly half the price of the oil itself. What’s being transported isn’t just crude oil; it’s practically liquid gold on the move. On top of that, global inventories have dropped by 500 million barrels in one go, and storage facilities at the producers’ end are running low.
Currently, the crude oil market is being propped up solely by the tension in the Middle East and the outrageous freight costs. There’s no short-term solution in sight. Brent crude at $110 may not be the peak, but chasing higher prices requires caution against sudden sharp drops. #10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 #SK海力士Q3营收首破100万亿韩元 #RobinhoodQ3营收增长，净利润下降 $INIT This coin is making such a big move this time. The first reaction when the network opens is to run. It's normal for the whales to pump a bit and stabilize community sentiment, but that doesn't represent the true market sentiment.#SKHynixQ3RevenueKRW100T SK hynix has officially shattered records by reporting a massive Q3 2026 revenue of KRW 104.62 trillion ($78.86 billion), marking the first time in the company's history that quarterly sales have crossed the monumental KRW 100 trillion threshold.It's almost midnight, brothers, was this roller coaster ride tonight thrilling? Just now, BTC's line shot straight up to 81800, did someone rush in shouting for a bull comeback? Then suddenly it drew a door for you, so brutal!
$BTC current price 80600, the 4-hour long-short ratio just dropped from 2.38 to 1.66, now back to 2.03. This rapid spike up and down clearly shows the main force violently shaking out the market, sweeping all high-leverage positions. The load is a bit lighter now, but the trapped positions at 81800 above still remain, so don't blindly chase the highs.
Looking at $ETH now at 2334, it's really hopeless, the long-short ratio slid from nearly 3 at its peak down to 2.0, now barely pulled back to 2.58. The key point is open interest is dropping! This means bulls can't hold and are cutting losses to close positions. The current rebound is all due to shorts taking profits, with no active buying at all.
Finally, $SOL at 101, with the market so volatile, its 4-hour long-short ratio is stuck tightly at 3.22, open interest remains high, all clustered stubbornly around the 100 mark. This is like a powder keg; once it breaks below 100, a spectacular chain liquidation will definitely happen.
In summary, the current market is in a phase of sweeping and shaking up and down, the main force is tricking back and forth. Plus, with the big event of the Fed at midnight, don't recklessly open positions at this turning point. Guessing longs or shorts now is the easiest way to get cut from both sides. Control your hands, watching empty-handed is the safest, wait until the leverage is cleaned out before making a move.
#10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 #SK海力士Q3 revenue surpasses 100 trillion KRW for the first time; storage sector remains highly prosperous, but upward momentum slows
SK Hynix's Q3 revenue reached 104.62 trillion KRW and operating profit 83.33 trillion KRW, both setting quarterly records, with net profit soaring 216% year-on-year, though falling short of analyst expectations, dampening short-term sentiment. The core of this performance is driven by AI-fueled explosive demand for HBM and server DRAM, with high-end storage price hikes boosting gross margins.
The company expects memory supply-demand tightness to continue until 2030, with over half of the 2027-2028 capacity already locked in by long-term contracts, ensuring strong profit certainty. Investment will increase in 2027, prioritizing capacity for high value-added AI storage, avoiding reckless volume expansion that could pressure prices.
In the short term, high-end storage price support remains, maintaining strong performance; however, net profit below expectations and long-term contract price caps weaken spot price elasticity, likely causing the market to fluctuate at high levels. Mid-term, as new capacity ramps up, the supply-demand gap will marginally narrow by 2028, gradually reducing the benefits of price increases.
Risks include AI capital expenditures falling short of expectations, competitors expanding capacity beyond forecasts, and weak end-user demand. Overall, storage has shifted from purely cyclical price increases to AI-driven structural growth. Going forward, key focus will be on HBM shipment progress, cloud providers' capital expenditures, and expansion pace of Samsung and Micron!🔥The Fed gives its answer tonight, but the market may not follow expectations!📉
Many people interpret "no rate hike" directly as good news, but the market trades on the expectation gap: if unchanged rates have already been priced in, what really affects the market could be the statement, the press conference, and whether future policies become more hawkish.
🐻 My short-term script is bearish: if BTC rallies near 82000 and then faces resistance, it may further test below 76000; if ETH breaks below 2300, watch for a drop below 2150.
📈 But don't forget another possibility: if the Fed signals a dovish tone, BTC firmly holds above 82000, and ETH regains key levels, the bears could face a short squeeze.
🛡️ The most important thing tonight is not to guess the first candlestick, but to wait for direction confirmation, control position size, and set stop losses.
Brothers, do you think this will be a "good news realization" or a bearish misjudgment? #10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 $IRYS The recent wave of liquidation selling looked fierce, but it didn't even break through 0.033.
All the sell orders dumped on the market were quietly absorbed.
The shorts are bearing the interest costs every day, holding on hard, and just now a position was liquidated.
With such strong support at the bottom, this kind of money-losing stubborn shorting will sooner or later be pushed up and called out one by one.
#IRYS
$IRYS
👇🔥Tonight's Federal Reserve decision, the real risk may not be whether to raise interest rates, but how much upward momentum the market has left after the positive news is priced in!📉
📊 The market generally expects rates to remain unchanged, but funds are more concerned about future policy guidance. If no rate hike has long been priced in, simply maintaining the current rate may not be enough to drive the market higher.
🐻 My bearish scenario is: BTC first tests around 82000, then watch for selling pressure; if the rebound fails, pay attention below 76000. If ETH breaks below 2300, then watch below 2150.
⚠️ But this is not a certain trend. If the Fed takes a dovish stance and BTC breaks out with volume and holds above 82000, the bearish logic needs to be reassessed.
Brothers, are you going long or short tonight? Let's chat in the comments, and you can also check out my pinned post! #10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 Bitcoin spent most of October fluctuating around $80,000 😐. On-chain data provides a straightforward explanation: this price level is exactly stuck between two key cost lines.
The resistance above comes from spot ETF buyers. Glassnode shows that the weighted average holding cost of spot Bitcoin ETFs across the U.S. is about $81,500. Every time the price rebounds to this area, it encounters a batch of holders who want to "break even and exit" — they entered at highs from late 2025 to early 2026, have been underwater for months, and are eager to break even 😮💨. There are two layers of support below: the real market average price is about $77,500–78,000; short-term holders (holding less than 155 days) have an average cost of about $74,600. The $80,000 level is sandwiched in the middle, facing selling pressure above but not yet touching the defense line below.
Zooming out, the underlying structure is actually more stable 📊. The realized price across the entire network is about $54,000, and long-term holders (holding over six months) have an average cost of only about $49,000. The short-term tug-of-war is a battle of cost lines, but the long-term support remains at a much lower level. #10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 #SK海力士Q3营收首破100万亿韩元 $BNB 我自己发了个币做实测。
结果 40 秒内进来的 23 笔转账，第 1 秒就有 7 个地址同时买入，每一笔正好打满 1% 的单钱包上限。买完持仓几秒就卖，纯纯的脚本在抢开盘。
40 秒后数了数，真正的小额散户只有 4 个。我以为我在发币，其实是给机器人发了一张入场券。
更搞笑的是两个半小时后的盈亏：25 个持仓地址里 24 个浮亏，唯一赚钱的那位，赚了 4 美分。
链上现实就是这样，机器人第一秒抢完抬高价格，散户进来接盘，最后全员给夹子送钱。你自己发过币吗？第 1 秒进来的到底是人还是脚本？The night before the Federal Reserve: Good news already priced in, should you reduce positions before the rebound?
At 2 a.m. Thursday, the Federal Reserve's decision will be revealed⏰. Interest rate futures have priced in a "hold steady" at over 90%, up from just 50% two weeks ago — this good news has long been fully digested🍽️. At the moment of the announcement, how much incremental buying power remains?🤔
Yet the data offers no dovish escape: durable goods orders rose 1.8%, the strongest in five months; consumer confidence at 91.7 far exceeds 81; the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield touched 4.997📈. With the economy this strong, if Powell mentions a rate hike in December, current pricing will have to be reshuffled🔄.
$BTC is hovering above 80,000, during the day testing 79,300, with 80,500–81,000 already broken. Every retreat to 80,000 feels like loosening trapped positions, creating the illusion that it "won't fall"; if 78,500–79,000 breaks, the next support is around 76,000⚠️.
$ETH is weaker, consolidating between 2,310–2,335, with 2,346 suppressing multi-million short positions; 2,246 and 2,235 are the real tests, breaking 2,240 points to 2,200📉.
Interest rates remain between 3.75–4.0, so capital is not cheap💸. At this level, if there is a rebound, consider reducing positions first; don't rush to chase🚫. #10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 #SK海力士Q3营收首破100万亿韩元 #RobinhoodQ3营收增长，净利润下降 Event: Tonight's Federal Reserve decision: Inflation keeps heating up, but will rate hikes be paused? Washington faces a credibility test. Let's lay out the original information first: According to the latest Reuters survey, among 100 economists interviewed, 94 expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.75%-4.00% tonight. The implied probability of a rate hike this time from CME Fed Funds futures is only about 10%, and Goldman Sachs' equity volatility division estimates the swap-implied probability even lower at 7%. However, inflation data does not support this stance: September's core CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month, higher than the market expectation of 0.2%, with the annual rate rising to 2.6%; the three-month annualized growth rate of core CPI surged from 2.0% to 3.4%. After the September CPI data release, the probability of a rate hike in October briefly rose to about 50%—this sharp swing itself reflects the market's deep uncertainty about the Fed's path. Bank of America Securities is currently the most notable dissenter on Wall Street; its economist team maintains the October rate hike forecast, believing the inflation data provides sufficient reason. BofA rate strategist Mark Cabana warned in a report that if Washington chooses to pause without a clear explanation, there is a risk of repeating the "dovish mistake" from the July press conference, which could put significant pressure on the dollar and the Treasury yield curve. Event-driven market moves usually unfold in two phases: the first phase is sentiment, and the second phase is the fundamentals taking over; Current market coordinates: · BTC current price 80,568.30, 24h +0.21% · ETH current price 2 At 2 AM tonight, Bitcoin options are outrageously expensive.
The "implied volatility" in the quote is 36.1,
Simply put: the market charges you as if it will fluctuate 36% over a year, but recently it only fluctuated 26.9.
The extra 9.2 is the "surprise fee" paid in advance.
This contract is half betting on price movement, half betting on "something big happening tonight."
Once 2 AM passes, regardless of price movement, the "something big" half will instantly evaporate.
So if the coin price rises, the contract actually falls.
You’re not seeing things; it’s the surprise fee being refunded.
Don’t chase before the event.
Buy after it lands; the same bet will be over 30% cheaper.SOXL current price is 104, with a floating profit just over 20%.
First, let's talk about the fuel behind this surge. Since the night of October 27, two large accounts have net covered about $7.22 million SOXL short positions, reducing shorts from 103,500 shares to 25,000 shares, a 75.8% cut. While SOXL surged, the total on-chain positions decreased by 30%, mainly due to short covering rather than retail investors chasing at the top; it's the shorts conceding.
A few days ago, SOXL broke below 92 million, and I exited with a floating profit above 101. My cost basis was at the bottom of that panic sell-off.
But currently, shorts haven't fully exited; about $125 million in short positions remain pressing at the top, with retail investors' long-to-short ratio at 6.91:1.
On fundamentals, TSMC's CoWoS advanced packaging price increased by 10%–20%, and customers "place orders as long as delivery dates can be promised." Bank of America raised Nvidia's target price to 500, with AI data center TAM reaching 17 trillion by 2030.
Price hikes, target price upgrades, and short covering—all three drivers are present simultaneously. I think holding on a bit longer is fine.
#Meta融资增至975亿美元，英伟达认购30亿
#英特尔代工转型迎来Terafab新变量
#聪明钱追踪The Federal Reserve is meeting these days, and the group chat has started reciting the script again: if they cut rates, it goes up to 85,000; if not, it crashes to 75,000. Those two sentences together cover both rise and fall, which means they say nothing.
It all depends on where it stands now: 80,600, up 0.25. Today it’s been hovering between 80,000 and 81,500 all day, with volume even smaller than last night’s wave. This kind of low-volume wait-for-news pattern doesn’t look like someone is grabbing chips; it looks more like everyone is hiding.
After the result, I guess two scenarios: if good, it will surge, breaking 81,500, then we’ll see if the pullback holds; if bad, it will first crash, and the 80,000 round number will probably be tested. I won’t bet on direction in advance; I’ll wait to see which side the closing price stands on. If it holds, I’ll move; if not, I’ll stay short.A major whale is sitting on millions in unrealized losses across $BTC , $ETH and $SOL shorts, yet funding income is providing some cushion.
$BTC: $10.59M loss | $3.17M funding earned
$ETH: $1.55M loss | $4.30M funding earned
$SOL: $4.77M loss | $3.83M funding earned
Over $11.3M in funding collected, but the positions remain underwater. A reminder that even large players can endure serious drawdowns, and funding alone doesn’t remove liquidation risk.#SKHynixQ3RevenueKRW100T OKX BTC 24-hour liquidation heatmap core data analysis, those looking to pick up chips should take a look!!!
Upper liquidity range:
Large amounts of long position liquidity waiting to be liquidated are concentrated around 82335, 83592, and 84789. The higher the position, the denser the liquidation layers are distributed. Breaking upward requires consuming a large amount of buy orders to sweep the upper long positions.
Lower liquidity range:
The areas around 79822, 78565, and 77309 gather thick short position liquidation zones. The liquidity brightness near 79822 is the highest, serving as the core support liquidation position below. Once broken, multiple layers of short positions await liquidation further down.
Current price position:
The current price is oscillating around 81078, caught between two large liquidity zones above and below. After a daytime surge touching the upper liquidity area, it quickly fell back, with frequent spikes and washouts. Both long and short liquidation pools are waiting for the market to trigger them.
Market logic:
Currently in a sandwich oscillation pattern, moving upward means harvesting high-level long positions, moving downward means smashing lower short positions. As the FOMC meeting approaches, funds are temporarily unwilling to choose a direction, grinding back and forth within the range, waiting for the news to land before deciding which side to harvest liquidity from.
For market review reference only, does not constitute any trading advice #10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 #SK海力士Q3营收首破100万亿韩元 #BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ $BTC $ETH $ZEC Recently, I've been closely following the rhythm of $DOGE. After a period of low-level consolidation, selling pressure has gradually been absorbed, and signs of stabilization in the market are slowly emerging, with short-term funds starting to flow back in. Entered long positions after confirming the support level is effective, using 50x leverage, currently floating with a profit of 108.10%.
DOGE is a highly sentiment-driven asset, so fluctuations during the rally are quite frequent, with back-and-forth shakeouts testing patience. There's no need to exit hastily on minor pullbacks; just follow the plan and take profits in batches.
A wave of upward movement has already occurred, and resistance above is gradually approaching. Using 50x leverage carries very high risk, so strict risk control is essential. Once bullish momentum weakens or signs of stagnation appear, reduce positions promptly and avoid blindly chasing highs. $SOL $ETH #10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 $CRCL Two major banks took opposite views on the same day: Mizuho sees 43, Bernstein sees 145, a difference of more than three times.
Mizuho's bearish reason is quite fresh.
They tested with an AI assistant, asking where to put idle money. The AI mostly advises you to go for interest-bearing bank accounts and doesn't really recommend holding USDC idle without interest.
Circle almost entirely relies on reserve interest for income; if USDC decreases a bit, it earns a bit less.
After reading this, I found it somewhat reasonable but also a bit funny.
Most people holding stablecoins around me use them mainly for transfers and moving in and out of exchanges, not really for that little interest.
If you let AI manage your finances, of course it will advise you to save in banks.
The stock price is now around 80, with earnings coming out next Wednesday.
I'll keep an eye on this one first and wait to see if the USDC circulation volume rises or falls in the earnings report.
Do you usually hold your stablecoins to earn interest, or just use them as transit money?
$CRCL $COIN
#WillAIAdviseYouNotToHoldUSDC?Q: A $43,400 ZEC short position, did they really risk that much principal? A: You can't equate the two. Roughly calculated with 7x leverage, the corresponding margin is about $6,200, but the actual amount depends on the margin mode.
Q: Then how should I interpret this short position? A: The amount doesn't represent confidence; I'm more concerned about the ability to withstand adverse moves. If the price rebounds 1%, the unrealized loss would be about $434, which is already around 7% of the margin mentioned above, not including fees. I will watch if they reduce the position later and won't measure confidence by nominal amount.🧩 $ENA: Opportunities and Risks Behind Synthetic Dollar Innovation
Ethena is exploring a synthetic dollar system different from traditional bank deposit models, building a new digital dollar solution through crypto market mechanisms and hedging strategies.
🔍 Three key aspects to watch:
🔹 Stability Mechanism: Understand how the protocol maintains the price stability of the synthetic dollar and whether it can continue operating during severe market volatility.
🔹 Collateral and Hedging Risks: Price fluctuations of crypto assets, hedging position performance, and counterparty risks may all impact the overall system stability.
🔹 Redemption and Liquidity: Whether the redemption mechanism is reliable and if liquidity is sufficient under extreme market conditions are critical to assessing the protocol's resilience.
⚠️ Core Insight: Price stability does not mean no risk. What truly deserves study is not just whether the synthetic dollar can maintain its peg, but whether the entire mechanism can withstand stress when the market faces pressure.
For $ENA, long-term development requires sustained real demand, robust risk management, and transparent operational mechanisms.
Don’t just look at returns; pay attention to where the risks come from. DYOR.
#ENA #Ethena #DeFi #SyntheticDollar #CryptoMarket #RiskManagement$ETC is gearing up for a powerful bullish reversal as support holds firm.
Price structure is compressing tightly for an aggressive upward expansion.
EP
7.500 - 7.561
TP
7.850
8.150
8.500
SL
7.320
Sellers are losing traction rapidly while aggressive buyers accumulate positions near the lows. As long as this crucial defense line remains intact, a sharp impulsive breakout toward upper targets is locked in.
Let’s go $ETC $XRP whale holdings have reached their highest level since late 2022, yet the price continues to struggle. That contrast deserves more attention than the headline figure itself.
Whale concentration alone doesn't tell us whether investors are accumulating or simply moving existing tokens between wallets. Without stronger ETF inflows and clear evidence of fresh demand, it's difficult to interpret this as a bullish signal.
#StrategyQ3BTCGains 📊 Key Shift in BTC Exchange Fund Flows: Is Selling Pressure Brewing?
The 30-day average net inflow of $BTC to exchanges has turned positive for the first time since September 21, warranting close attention.
🔍 Core Data:
- 📈 October 28: 30-day net inflow average reached +182 BTC
- 📉 October 18: Still at -3,950 BTC
- ⚖️ In just 10 days, the indicator reversed by about 4,132 BTC
- 🛡️ During this fund flow shift, BTC price has held above $80,000.
Previously, during the downturns in February and June, exchange net inflows remained around 4,000–5,000 BTC daily for several consecutive weeks, after which BTC fell from $88,000 to $63,000 and from $81,000 to $60,000 respectively.
⚠️ The key difference this time: the current net inflow average is only +182 BTC, not yet reaching the levels seen during previous large-scale sell-offs.
The trend of holders moving assets to exchanges is changing, but this does not necessarily mean these BTC will be sold immediately.
🎯 Next signals to watch:
- Net inflow average surpassing +2,000 BTC: potential selling pressure on exchanges deserves further caution.
- BTC breaking below $80,000#SK海力士Q3 revenue surpasses 100 trillion KRW for the first time, with both revenue and operating profit greatly exceeding expectations. Q3 revenue reached 104.62 trillion KRW, a year-on-year increase of 328%, marking the first time in history that a single quarter exceeded 100 trillion; operating profit was 83.33 trillion KRW, up 632% year-on-year, with an astonishing operating profit margin of 80%. This operating profit is about 16% higher than JPMorgan's forecast, and revenue is about 7% above consensus, constituting a "double beat".
However, net profit is a clear contrast. Net profit was 39.78 trillion KRW, up 216% year-on-year but sharply down 58% quarter-on-quarter, and significantly below the market expectation of about 59.66 trillion KRW. The drag came from non-operating areas: exchange rate-related losses of about 11.63 trillion KRW, and valuation losses on Kioxia-related investment assets of about 22.92 trillion KRW, together reducing pre-tax profit to 50.71 trillion KRW, about 33% below consensus. In other words, the operational profitability is extremely strong, but non-operating financial items created a glaring gap.
The stock price reaction indicates the market chose to prioritize pricing the operational segment's outperformance rather than the net profit miss. The Korean stock rose more than 10% intraday, closing at about 1.487 million KRW;The Federal Reserve's rate decision is tomorrow early morning. The high probability of no rate hike mainly depends on how Waller will express his stance. Multiple Fed officials' intensive statements in October have been sending a signal: to proceed with tightening at a pace of "hiking every other meeting"—meaning a hike in September, skipping October, and hiking again in December.
Previously, New York Fed President John Williams clearly stated "no urgent action needed in October" and hinted that there would be only one more rate hike this year; Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said policymakers might need more time to assess the data; Governor Waller summarized this position as: rate hikes "do not need to occur at consecutive meetings but should be done within a reasonable timeframe." The September FOMC meeting minutes also confirmed this framework: all 19 officials supported the September hike, and "most" officials thought one more hike this year was appropriate.
So, it is highly likely that the FOMC will not hike this time, but Waller's view on December's action could be key: 1) Does Waller need to explain to the market how he views the inflation trend?
2) Will he emphasize more that inflation will strengthen curve flattening and push short-term rates higher; or will he emphasize more that tightening financial conditions might cause the curve to steepen again?
3) Will he say something like "any further rate adjustments will depend on data trends, outlook evolution, and risk balance," or remain completely silent on the policy path?
If the Fed indeed does not hike this time and is vague about the December path, the market will start focusing on the present. Tomorrow early morning, there are also earnings reports from Microsoft and Google; if the earnings show faster AI commercialization acceleration than market expectations,
then indeed we can expect a rally before the Anthropic roadshow.
Reposted from qinbafrank$GRVT could face a short squeeze if crowded short positions start getting liquidated. Forced buybacks can accelerate upward moves, especially in a low-float token.
But a squeeze isn’t guaranteed. Limited circulating supply can amplify volatility in both directions, so chasing either side carries risk.
Watch funding, open interest, and price action closely. Avoid forcing entries, and keep risk controls tight.The three major mainstream coins show a divergence in capital flow, with spot buying beginning to take over
In the past 24 hours, the capital flow trends for BTC, ETH, and SOL have shown similar characteristics: a decrease in contract-side funds and an increase in spot-side buying. Compared to previous markets driven by leverage, the current capital structure is becoming more stable.
BTC stands out the most, with a net outflow of $155 million in contracts and a net inflow of $14.78 million in spot, accumulating a total spot inflow of $381 million over the past 3 days, indicating that funds continue to absorb chips during the pullback.
ETH has a net spot inflow of $13.26 million in the past 24 hours and a cumulative inflow of $110 million over the past 3 days, showing signs of short-term recovery. However, there is still a net spot outflow of $542 million over the past 30 days, indicating that mid-term capital pressure has not been fully relieved.
SOL has a net spot inflow of $4.51 million, but a cumulative contract outflow of $62.47 million over the past 3 days. Spot buying has begun, but participation willingness in the derivatives market remains insufficient.
Overall, BTC's capital structure is the most stable, ETH is in a recovery phase, and SOL requires more incremental funds for confirmation. The current stage resembles a repricing after leverage cool-down rather than a clear trend reversal.#Strategy Earnings Preview: BTC Book Gains Rebound Significantly ✅Core Background
Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), as the world's largest enterprise-level BTC holder, holds over 840,000 bitcoins with an average cost of about $75,400. According to the new crypto asset accounting standard FASB ASU 2023‑08, profits must be recorded quarterly at fair value based on coin price. During the previous coin price correction phase, huge unrealized losses were recorded, but with BTC price recovery, this quarter's book gains have seen a significant repair, and the balance sheet has clearly improved.
✅Earnings Highlights
1. Book Gains Recovery
The rising coin price drives huge unrealized gains, causing net profit in the earnings report to rebound significantly. Note this is book profit, not realized cash profit; as long as BTC is not sold, gains can fluctuate and retract with coin price.
2. Balance Sheet Improvement, Financing Capacity Opens
After the pressure of unrealized losses eases, the company's net asset value rises, facilitating further capital raising through stock or bond issuance, creating conditions for continued BTC accumulation. The company has also been repurchasing preferred shares to reduce long-term dividend payment pressure and optimize financial structure.
3. Market Sentiment Indicator
As the BTC "enterprise hoarding benchmark," strong earnings will positively boost bullish sentiment in the crypto market. Many traders view MSTR as a high-beta proxy for BTC. $BTC $ETH $ZEC $xQQQ $SAK
Just finished scanning the market, today's行情 is really fierce! Especially STAK, traversing the current market volatility, one realizes that infrastructure public chains are inherently unsuitable to have their value measured by short-term market fluctuations.
The twists of macro expectations and the tides of market sentiment will carry most emerging assets up and down with the waves. Amid the noise, most people are accustomed to using short-term price changes as a yardstick, hastily judging a project's success or failure, rarely pausing to examine the track the project chooses to cultivate.
STAK anchors on privacy decentralized infrastructure; the narrative fulfillment of this track is never an overnight explosion but a long-term foundation building. When the tide recedes, it is precisely the window to weed out the chaff and identify the project's long-term resilience.
Rather than chasing fleeting market swings, what is more worth continuously tracking is the trajectory of its technological iteration, the sedimentation of node ecology, and whether the initial concept can be realized step by step into verifiable results.
True underlying infrastructure must go through multiple bull and bear cycles to reveal its true quality. There is no need to be swayed by the current market noise; extend your vision and patiently await the ecological narrative and practical implementation to resonate in sync. #10月FOMC利率决议即将公布
The FOMC meeting from October 27 to 28 is approaching, and the market is pricing in a 92.8% chance of a pause in rate hikes. However, inflation is not very good, and the 10-year US Treasury yield is still around 5%.
It's best not to treat the pause as good news right now. If the expectation for a rate hike in December worsens, the Nasdaq will definitely plunge, and BTC will follow.
Currently, inflation expectations are rising, employment is too strong, and long-term yields cannot go down. Any one of these exceeding expectations will tighten conditions even if there is a pause. On the crypto side, don't get carried away just because ETFs are seeing inflows; before liquidity returns, all rebounds could be illusions.
$ETH $BTC $ZEC #Can Robinhood's trading business growth continue? Robinhood's trading business growth can continue, but only if diversification plans succeed and strict regulatory hurdles are overcome. Wall Street analysts see the company's future growth no longer relying solely on commissions and traditional retail trading, but linked to its ability to transform into a comprehensive financial platform.$ETH brothers, check out this massive on-chain short squeeze!
BTC, ETH, and SOL are all shorted together, with a total position value of $715 million. Just BTC+ETH alone have $460 million in short positions—such a huge capital scale is terrifying.
The entry points aren't low either, and the current floating losses have already been pulled up.
It feels like they're deliberately suppressing the price, forcibly holding it down.
On one side, there are nearly $200 million worth of ETH longs chasing the price, and on the other, this massive short whale with terrifying volume. It's a battle between two giant whales on both sides.
Now with election regulation news hanging overhead, both sides are gambling on whether the longs will be liquidated first or the shorts will be squeezed. This market situation is really exciting to watch.
⚠️ Market observation only, not trading advice
Feels like they're deliberately suppressing the price $ETH $ETH #10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 Since the U.S. stock market opened, it has shifted from rising to index decline. This is not because the AI narrative is weak, but as I mentioned earlier, approaching the second half of the U.S. stock market, the guiding narrative has shifted from AI earnings reports to Fed policy. The market has basically priced in no rate hike in October, and even a hawkish pause in October has been fully anticipated by the market. Therefore, there is not much room for a hawkish tone in tonight's speech by Waller. So the upcoming rhythm of the U.S. stock market is very simple: before the Fed rate decision and Waller's speech, risk markets will remain cautious with slight declines, which can be seen as respect and caution toward Fed policy. After Waller's speech, as long as the hawkish tone does not exceed expectations, the U.S. stock market is very likely to rebound. Moreover, with good earnings expectations from Microsoft and Google, the U.S. stock market may very well rebound and close higher at the end of the day. As for Waller's speech, there is actually not much room to exceed hawkish expectations. The mainstream market expectation is a pause in October and a rate hike in December. Currently, the probability of a December rate hike is 77.9%, which has been preliminarily fully priced in. This means maintaining the current rate with inflation still high and the committee ready to further tighten policy if necessary is within expectations. Therefore, Waller has limited room to be more hawkish than expected unless, besides pushing for a December hike, he also pushes for more hikes in the future, which would be an unexpectedly hawkish stance. Regarding Waller's speech, we can categorize it as follows: #October FOMC rate decision is about to be announced Pause rate hikes + emphasize data dependence = dovish Pause rate hikes + inflation still high + keep rate hike option = basically expected hawkish pause Pause rate hikes + clearly/imply December canThe cryptocurrency industry has spent about $176 million in the midterm elections, participating in over 100 congressional races.
As of October 20, the largest crypto industry super PAC, Fairshake, and its affiliated organizations have spent approximately $150.8 million. This money is mainly used for advertising to support crypto-friendly candidates or oppose candidates considered unfriendly by the industry.
The main backers behind Fairshake include Coinbase, Ripple, and a16z. Public disclosures show Ripple donated about $48.5 million to Fairshake and its affiliates, Coinbase donated at least $25 million to Fairshake, and a16z-related funds amounted to about $24 million.
In the House elections, Fairshake supported both Republican and Democratic candidates. However, after Democratic senators blocked the advancement of the crypto market structure bill, the CLARITY Act, Fairshake chose to support only Republican candidates in this Senate race.
However, Coinbase also directly donated about $2 million to Republican-related organizations and about $2.2 million to Democratic-related organizations in this election cycle. These direct donations did not go through Fairshake.
Overall, the disclosed donations from crypto companies to related political action committees total about $206 million, while total donations from non-crypto industries amount to about $646 million. The cryptocurrency industry accounts for at least one-third of the total donations in this midterm election.
Of course, the crypto industry’s investment is not because Republicans are more attractive, but to gain more supporters in Congress to promote crypto regulatory legislation. Comparatively, Republicans are indeed somewhat more supportive of cryptocurrency.
Reposted from Phyrex#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到
Under what conditions do you take partial profits on your floating profit positions?
There are several scenarios. One is for long-term floating profit positions, where you might consider taking partial profits as the price keeps hitting new highs.
For example, previously buying $HYPE, where news or capital frenzy drove it up, and there were also KOL calls.
Due to high psychological expectations and continuous rise reaching over 70, the expectation might be that it could reach 100, so the expected price also rises accordingly. But later, because Hayes publicly sold, it was sold around 68 shortly after the call 🤔
Another type is for fast-rising floating profits, similar to the previous $RAVE, etc., where you reduce your position by 20-30% with each price increase until fully sold.
For mainstream coins like $ETH and BTC, it’s roughly similar to hype; the previous high is generally around the historical high point where you consider taking partial profits.
Additionally, if the "fundamentals" are decent, you consider taking 20-30% profits when moving from floating loss to floating profit. If the fundamentals are weak, you consider taking 50% or more profits when moving from floating loss to floating profit 📉 $SKDD Technical Analysis: Bearish Trend Continues, Watch Key Support!
$SKDD is currently hovering around $8.146, with an overall weak trend. If the price effectively breaks below $7.859, selling pressure may increase further, testing lower support zones.
🔻 $SKDD Short Trade Plan
- 🎯 Entry Range: $8.10–$8.25
- 🛑 Stop Loss: $8.65
- ✅ Target 1: $7.85
- ✅ Target 2: $7.65
- ✅ Target 3: $7.40
- ✅ Target 4: $7.00
📊 Key Observation:
If the $7.859 support is effectively broken, bears may gain further downside room; if the price strengthens again and approaches $8.65, this bearish view needs to be reassessed.
⚠️ Risk Warning: This is a high-risk trading idea, not a certainty prediction. Pay attention to volume and breakout confirmation before entry, strictly control position size, and avoid blind shorting.
Discipline first, act after confirmation. DYOR.
#SKDD #Cryptocurrency #FuturesTrading #ShortStrategy #TechnicalAnalysis #DailyOrbit$BTC is only 3 hours away from the Federal Reserve's latest interest rate decision. Market sentiment has clearly started to turn cautious.
During the day, Bitcoin peaked at 81,820 but failed to hold that level and has now fallen back to around 80,700. Objectively, this indicates very strong resistance near 82,000, and bullish momentum has weakened. Technically, the KDJ indicator has formed a death cross pointing downward, signaling a short-term need for a pullback and correction.
However, there is a solid long-term positive news: Thailand's Supreme Court has officially ruled Bitcoin as "property" in the legal sense. This adds fuel to the compliance of cryptocurrencies. But in the face of a major macro event like the Fed's decision, short-term positives are easily overshadowed by market sentiment.
Looking at the correlation, ETH, SOL, and ZEC are all following Bitcoin's lead, oscillating and waiting for direction.
The last 3 hours are often a period of intense shakeout, with the biggest risk being a "buy the rumor, sell the fact" dump. Avoid heavy bets on one-sided moves at this critical moment; watch more and act less. Wait for the Fed's clear signals and the market's reaction before responding!$BTC Tonight this wave dropped continuously from above 81,000. Just now, the bearish candle smashed down to around 80,000, dropping this deep was a bit unexpected. The afternoon's gains were basically all retraced. But after this sharp dip, the downward momentum did not continue to accelerate.
Looking at the bigger picture on the 4-hour chart, the recent days' support lows have been gradually rising step by step. The 1-hour candle in the afternoon broke upward with increased volume, structurally forming a BOS. Although this recent sharp drop looks fierce, it did not break below the previous starting point of the rise. The pattern of rising lows remains intact, essentially a normal correction.
Looking at the specific position, the recent lowest point just touched the previous daily low near 80,000. This area has seen multiple previous turnovers, with buy orders hanging below. On the 15-minute chart, after two large bearish candles, the volume immediately shrank. The bears did not follow up with large sell orders, and the price was supported at the low point.
My outlook is bullish. The price has held the daily structural support on the pullback, the upward trend of the bottom on the larger timeframe remains unchanged, and it is highly likely to stop here and rebound upward.
$ETH $SOL #美伊缓和与军事风险并存，油价持续回落 $ETH brothers, look at these two ETH long positions!
The combined long positions of the two major holders are close to 200 million USD, really shocking.
The positions were opened above 2500, with the liquidation zone concentrated around 2170.
This is a solid chase of longs, just watching it makes you sweat.
Now with election regulatory bearish pressure on the market, it's hard not to suspect whether the main force will push down to hit this concentrated liquidation zone.
The bulls are betting on the upside, but at this position, the risk is visible to the naked eye, better to watch the show. #10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 $ETH $BTC Learn about one coin every day, today we are learning about the coin—DOS
Shady Coin Index: 5🌟
Growth Index: 2🌟
Trading advice: Another low-quality coin, it rose for some unknown news. Not recommended for long-term holding, no growth potential. You can wait for another rise, then short a small position when it surges sharply, be cautious of risks.
Let's briefly understand this coin: DAPPOS is an AI-based Web3 Intent-Centric AI Operating System network, aiming to lower the usage threshold of decentralized applications (dApp). $DOS SanDisk earnings report is about to be released! Brother Baibai: I still firmly believe in the future of storage chips!
Breaking news! SanDisk (SNDK) is set to announce its fiscal 2027 Q1 earnings on October 29 U.S. time. This time, I believe it’s not just an ordinary earnings report, but an important moment to test the global super boom cycle of storage chips!
Why has Brother Baibai always been optimistic about SanDisk? Because I have always believed that in the era of artificial intelligence, the value of storage chips is being redefined!
Let’s first look at last quarter’s data: SanDisk’s revenue reached $8.965 billion, a 51% quarter-over-quarter increase and a 372% year-over-year increase! Among that, data center business revenue hit $2.977 billion, a 103% quarter-over-quarter increase!
What does this mean? It shows that the storage demand driven by AI has truly been reflected in the company’s performance!
More importantly, the company previously forecasted this quarter’s revenue to reach $10.3 billion to $10.8 billion, with adjusted earnings per share expected to be $44 to $46.
If this earnings report once again exceeds market expectations, then the market will have to reassess SanDisk’s future profitability.
Why am I so optimistic about the storage industry?
Because AI servers need storage, cloud computing needs storage, and data center expansion also requires storage. The stronger the computing power and the more data there is, the greater the demand for high-performance storage!
In my view, SanDisk is no longer just a traditional storage company, but a key enterprise to watch in the AI infrastructure industry chain.
$SNDK $PEPE
A wallet that had been dormant for who knows how long moved tonight. 2.27 trillion PEPE, equivalent to 10.19 million USD, dumped into the exchange all at once.
I remember the last time PEPE had such a large abnormal movement, it took at least more than a week to recover. When an old wallet on-chain moves like this, it’s basically not to give warmth; most likely it’s to sell off, or at least to test if the market can hold.
Let me share a facepalm moment. I got burned once on PEPE last year, thinking the bottom was in as volume shrank, I added positions halfway down the slope, and cut losses near the lowest point. It was ugly. So this time I’ve learned my lesson: better to earn less than to guess the bottom.
The current price is 0.000004869, up about ten percent in 24 hours. While it’s rising, a huge whale is moving coins to the exchange. Think about this combination carefully. I tend to wait and see, let it digest on its own first.
#10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 $SKHYNIX Direction: Short
· Entry: Short when the rebound is resisted around 1130 - 1135.
· Stop Loss: Firmly stop loss if it breaks above 1140 (above previous high).
· Take Profit: First target 1100, second target 1080.
⚠️ Reminder: Intraday increase exceeds 10%, stagnation appears at high levels, beware of profit-taking retracement. This is a counter-trend top fishing, do not enter early, be sure to trade very lightly and exit quickly. Binance and Coinbase can be described as polar opposites
Binance spot market is dominated by active buying, while Coinbase spot market is dominated by active selling; the investor behaviors on both sides are completely opposite.
When BTC retraced to $79,500, Binance's BTC balance suddenly decreased by 15,436 coins; at the same time, Coinbase's balance increased by 5,686 BTC.
This indicates a clear divergence of funds in different regions under the current environment. One part is actively absorbing chips, while the other part is still seeking to exit.
Could this be the legendary "East-West confrontation"?
Following this trend, the direction depends on whether Binance's buying can continue or when Coinbase's selling pressure will weaken.
If Coinbase's selling pressure gradually exhausts and Binance's buyers remain strong, then $79,500 could become an important node for a new round of supply and demand relationship changes.
The formation of a bottom can start when someone is willing to absorb selling pressure; but a trend reversal requires more capital to form consensus.
After all, relying on the buying side of only one market makes it difficult to resist the continuous pressure released by another market in the long term.
Reposted from Murphy$XAU Direction: Short
· Entry: Short when rebound is resisted near 4060 - 4065.
· Stop Loss: Firm stop loss if it breaks through 4080.
· Take Profit: First target 4040, second target 4020.
⚠️ Note: Short-term is in a fluctuating downtrend, MACD dead cross with expanding green bars, wait for rebound resistance confirmation, do not chase shorts directly, use light positions with stop loss.The Federal Reserve is very likely to hold steady; the real risk lies in December
The market's expectation that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged tonight is already very high, with probabilities once approaching 90%.
But what truly determines subsequent pricing is not whether there is a move tonight, but the hints about the December path after the meeting.
Since rates were just raised in September, a pause in October is not surprising. However, if Powell still emphasizes inflation stickiness and remains open to further tightening during the press conference, the market will reprice for "high rates lasting longer."
For BTC, the real risk is not a single pause, but the liquidity environment being extended again.
A common pitfall is to interpret "very likely no change tonight" directly as all bad news priced in, then heavily betting on direction before the announcement.
Events that are already fully priced often see a reverse move right after the news breaks. Leveraged positions are most vulnerable during this window.
Reduce your positions first, wait for the volatility to pass, then see if capital continues to stay in AI and chips or starts to spread into crypto.
How are you preparing now?
If the post-meeting tone is hawkish, do you plan to reduce your holdings or keep them? What is your reasoning?
$BTC #FederalReserve #FOMC #Macroeconomics #OKXPlanet$TSLA Direction: Short
· Entry: Short when the rebound is resisted around 406 - 408.
· Stop Loss: Firmly stop loss if it breaks through 413 (above previous high).
· Take Profit: First target 398 (previous low), second target 392.
⚠️ Note: Heavy volume plunge at high level, MACD dead cross near zero line with expanding green bars, strong bearish momentum. Wait for rebound to confirm resistance, do not chase shorts directly, use light positions with stop loss.