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ETF Weekly Settlement
💰 BTC ETF had a net inflow of $301 million last week! A rollercoaster week, ending two weeks of outflows
📈 Farside: Last week BTC spot ETF net inflow was about $301 million, ending two weeks of net outflows; from Monday to Wednesday, inflows were about $1.08 billion, while Thursday and Friday saw outflows of about $774 million (Cointelegraph).
📉 The previous two weeks had outflows of about $228 million and $680 million respectively; October cumulative is still a net outflow of about $314 million.
🔷 ETH spot ETF had a net outflow of about $221 million last week, marking the 4th consecutive week of net outflows.
🧮 The outflows on Thursday and Friday wiped out about 72% of the inflows from earlier in the week (my own calculation).
A positive weekly figure does not mean buying has stabilized; I am not sure and might be mistaken.
📍 What I am watching:
• Whether ETFs continue to have net inflows this week
• Whether October cumulative can turn positive
Do you think ETFs will continue net inflows this week or reverse again?
$BTC $ETH #BTCETHETFOutflows #OctFOMCDecisionThisWeek $BTC $ETH $ZEC This weekend, retail investors and whales moved in opposite directions. The speed at which retail investors transferred coins to exchanges hit a six-month high. Meanwhile, whales were pulling back.
In the past 30 days, retail investors' deposits of $BTC to Binance rose from about $5.5 billion to about $10.75 billion. Whales' deposits dropped from about $5.9 billion to about $3.8 billion, a decrease of about 36%. Now retail investors' deposits are about 2.8 times those of whales. Depositing does not equal selling; it just means moving coins to a place where they can be sold. This looks more like retail investors seeking an exit during the rebound, not whales dumping. This is just speculation, not confirmed.
Regarding $BTC ETFs, the inflows and outflows were alternating. From Monday to Wednesday, net inflows were about $1.08 billion. $BTC touched a weekly high of about $84,777. On Thursday and Friday, net outflows were about $774 million. For the week, net inflows were about $301 million, breaking a two-week streak of outflows. But overall in October, net outflows were about $314 million. Research also shows ETF investors are not bottom-fishers. In 7 out of 8 major drops, there were net outflows.
At 00:26, $BTC was about $80,228. The Fed decision on Wednesday is the key point; the probability of no change is high, and the market is focused on a rate hike in December. A recovery above about $82,500 would restore buyer confidence. Institutional cost is around $81,500 nearby. So I’m not rushing to define this week’s trend. Retail investors are active, institutions are waiting, so I’ll wait along with them.#谷歌云业务增长82%，AI投入回报如何？ Don't just focus on the candlestick chart, the "position swap door" of GDOG has opened 🚪
Grayscale has enabled physical subscriptions for products like the Dogecoin Trust ETF (GDOG). This news isn't explosive but is very important 🔍. Previously, institutions wanting to acquire shares often had to first sell DOGE for fiat, then subscribe, which involved high friction and tax costs; now qualified institutions can directly exchange spot DOGE for trust shares, shortening the path and making it smoother for compliant funds to enter.
The key is not "an additional subscription method," but that the flow of chips has changed 📦. Institutions no longer need to dump on the secondary market to get cash but gradually move on-chain spot DOGE into the trust's cold wallet. The freely tradable $DOGE in circulation is being "stockpiled" bit by bit, with selling pressure absorbed upfront, potentially amplifying the price elasticity of marginal buying later.
Retail investors panic over a few cents of fluctuation, while institutions are using institutional channels to settle chips 🧊. This is not a trading call; the market structure is quietly shifting gears. Don't get shaken out by short-term noise, nor blindly chase highs; understanding the capital flow channels is more important than guessing a single candlestick. Going forward, volatility may be more about rhythm 🎢. #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ #中东原油运输恢复，油价为何仍居高位？ 航道只是恢复通行，地区冲突根源没有解决，霍尔木兹、红海仍存在再次扰动的风险，市场持续保留地缘风险溢价，不敢轻易看空油价。 ✅ 全球原油库存偏低 前期大量消耗战略储备与商业库存，缓冲空间不足，一旦出现短期供应扰动，很容易推升价格，低库存给油价较强支撑。 ✅ 航运、保险成本居高不下 冲突过后，油轮保险、航运运费没有明显回落，运输端成本抬升，传导至原油现货价格。 ✅ OPEC+减产托底+成品油偏紧 OPEC+维持减产策略，控制供给；同时全球柴油等成品油供应紧张，炼厂端缺口反向支撑原油需求，带动油价维持高位。 ✅ “能通航≠完全复产” 部分油气设施受损，产能修复缓慢，实际可稳定输出产量还没回到冲突前水平，供给并没有完全放开。 📌小结：运输通道恢复只是缓解最极端断供危机，但地缘隐患、低库存、高航运成本、减产约束多重因素叠加，油价继续维持高位。#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ October 28 is just around the corner, and SK Hynix's Q3 earnings report is definitely the highlight of this week's semiconductor circle. The current market sentiment is basically a "clear bet" on bullishness, so let's analyze the logic.
The core is all about HBM4. With AI server demand booming, everyone is counting on HBM4 mass production to boost unit prices and profits. A community member put it bluntly: as long as AI inference demand can push HBM4 shipments up, it can completely offset the weakness in traditional memory business.
How crazy is the funding from the data? Related tokens ($SKHYNIX, $SKHY)
But rational analysis means watching the risk points: first, whether production capacity can keep up; second, yield issues—don’t ship a lot but have gross margin dragged down. As long as this wave of HBM4 volume and price rise stabilizes, hitting a historic high is not a dream; if the performance slightly misses expectations, the previously soaring sentiment will likely teach you a lesson in no time.Generally, this kind of giant IPO usually first involves thematic hype before the bloodletting. Based on $SPCX's experience, the decline will start at the latest one week before the IPO.
From SpaceX's S-1 filing (May 20) to pricing (June 11), the early period was thematic speculation, and the last week was the squeeze.
Mapping this to Anthropic: before November 9 is the thematic period, from November 10 to pricing (the week before Thanksgiving) is the bloodletting period, with the peak 3 to 5 trading days before pricing. The midterm elections from November 3 to the roadshow on November 10 only have 4 trading days and are sandwiched by the big non-farm payroll data on November 6. Between this week and the midterm elections, it is more likely to be a pricing anchor rather than bloodletting.
At the same time, Anthropic's S-1 is possibly positive for this week's Microsoft/Google/Amazon earnings reports. The logic is that Anthropic's expenses are evidence of the necessity of capital expenditures by cloud providers. The primary funds raised from the IPO will ultimately flow back into the revenues of these three companies and chip manufacturers, so this bloodletting is a drain on the overall market but a transfusion for cloud providers. However, this returns to the paradoxical "left foot stepping on right foot" spiral ascent ladder cloud mode, raising the question of whether the market can still (pretend to) accept it.
Before SPCX's opening week, the crypto market once lost 180 billion in market cap. Anthropic might have a similar effect this time, meaning for short-term swing traders, if there is a rebound in early November, they should exit quickly to avoid risk and re-enter after the market stabilizes.The market looks a bit interesting 😅 Everyone was holding back waiting for a lower price during the dip, but as soon as it bounced back, BTC and ETH futures saw a net buy of 430 million in 24 hours, and spot also saw net inflows. Those without positions think the drop isn't enough, while shorts think the rebound is too much. I want to see if this wave of buying can push through 81,000.
I'm more inclined to go long. The 430 million might not all be new money, but the shift to spot buying makes me willing to wait. Planning to enter BTC around 80,600, the 15-minute 20 moving average is at 80,500, so don't let the pullback break it directly; stop loss if 80,380 is lost, reduce at 81,000 first, and hold the rest aiming for 81,400. The worst is sideways grinding, just closed a position and it rallies, chasing feels uncomfortable 😮💨
ETH is the priority. Buy if it stops falling between 2,340–2,345, admit a mistake at 2,328, take profit first at 2,370, and try for 2,385 with the remaining. The previous dip didn't break the low, 2,350 has been reclaimed, so no desire to short for now. Don't let it just break below the 20 moving average at 2,339 right after entry; if the pullback turns into a downtrend, it will be painful 😣
SOL is later, only looking at 101.3, exit at 100.7, reduce above 102.5. Not opening all three at once, ETH first. I guess the rebound isn't over, but chasing directly is uncomfortable, and placing orders risks missing out. For now, no action, watching the selling pressure at 2,370 📈📉Brothers, something's off in the active group chat, everyone is shouting to go long, saying a surge is about to happen!
The shorts are about to get bloodied. Is shorting really that dangerous right now?
Look at the market, $BTC is around 80181 now, although the group is shouting long, shorts still make up 52%.
My position—BTC short, entry price 83436.2, current price 80182.9, holding steady with +11.69% profit, not worried at all.
Why don’t I run when everyone’s shouting long? Because in this market, sentiment often goes the opposite way. The more retail rushes into longs, the less likely the big players will pump the price to save you. They’d rather use the long positions as fuel to smash the price down, isn’t that better?
Look at the candlesticks, after a big bearish candle slammed down, the rebound is weak as hell, moving averages are pressing down hard, no sign of reversal at all.
Those shouting long are gambling with their lives, we’re just picking up money by following the trend and shorting. Of course, if there’s a sudden pump, I’ll admit it. But with the current market, shorts still hold the fishing spot firmly.
Brothers, the busier the group chat gets, the calmer you need to be. Do you think this move is a strong pillar, or a bull trap set by the big players preparing to smash it again?
$ETH $ZEC #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Institutions have been continuously revising upwards before the earnings report: consensus operating profit expectations rose from 74 trillion → 76.8 trillion → Citigroup sees 81.3 trillion (about 8% higher than the original consensus)
Strong drivers: HBM4 long-term contract price lock + DRAM/NAND price increases + AI inference KV-cache demand, profitability visibility is very strong
History: consecutive quarters of beats, Q2 already set a record, Q3 is a "cycle + AI" double hit, numerically the easiest to exceedRetail investors are busy exiting, but whales are not following suit
After BTC fell below $80,000, an interesting contrast appeared on-chain: the amount of BTC transferred by retail investors to exchanges rose to a nearly 6-month high, while the scale of whale deposits clearly declined.
Data shows that the scale of BTC transferred by whales to exchanges dropped from about 5.9 billion at the end of August to 3.8 billion, a decrease of approximately 36%.
What does this indicate? The selling pressure from retail investors may be increasing, while large holders have not yet shown the same level of willingness to sell.
However, transferring fewer coins to exchanges does not necessarily mean bottom-fishing, nor does it directly prove that whales are accumulating. What’s more worth watching is whether BTC can hold steady around $80,000 and whether the flow of funds continues to change.
When panic sentiment rises, don’t rush to make decisions based on the crowd.
$BTC $ETH
The above is an interpretation of on-chain data and does not constitute investment advice.
#OctFOMCDecisionThisWeek The market caps of animal Meme coins like DOGE, SHIB, and PEPE are already very large, so their potential for further growth is limited. RVN has a smaller market cap, combines BTC's PoW hashrate and fixed total supply characteristics, and also has ETH's on-chain asset issuance capability, giving it stronger long-term growth potential.美股科技巨头的财报是本周宏观三大主线之一，并且直接影响美股AI行业叙事的信心，尤其是目前宏观压力如此之大，信心就变得更加重要 本周值得关注的财报有7个， 10月28日的海力士，Robinhood #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ 10月29日的谷歌与微软 10月30日的亚马逊、英特尔、闪迪 其中，最为关键的就是全球AI超级云厂商巨头 谷歌、微软、亚马逊，在上周，AI企业验证逻辑正式进入现金流验证环境，之前比花钱，现在比赚钱，虽然Q3财报季对AI企业的赚钱效应还不够严苛，但是很显然AI企业的结构正在加速分化 为何我说这三家最重要？核心就是三家全球头部云厂商，占据了AI产业链中的核心枢纽地位，可影响上游AI基础设施的订单与需求，同时可以影响下游可以AI模型、应用等，更是目前测试AI投资者信心的“试金石” 对于这三家财报，整体上看四大叙事，营收+AI资本支出+自由现金流+2027年指引，其中现金流是当前财报的核心验证点 最好的组合=营收增长+资本开支上调+自由现金流回归增长趋势，商业逻辑闭环，现金流验证成功 中性组合=营收增长+资本开支上调+自由现金流增长缓慢，市场要考虑A- 万附近的 BTC 看着很热闹，底下其实还在拔河 可这真是大户在护盘，还是只是把情绪吊住的临时舞台？ 这两天盯盘有一种很微妙的感觉：价格黏在 80000 附近，来回试探，表面像在蓄势，底层却更像筹码在换手。链上数据把这层反差放大了，长线地址悄悄吸了约 7.7 亿规模的筹码，短线资金却往交易所塞了约 5.59 亿，像是一边在收、一边在备着随时走。我更愿意把这理解成资金偏好还没统一，而不是简单的多空对峙。 从趋势阶段看，现在更像分歧段，不是干净的启动，也还没走到全面派发。80000 是本周最要紧的心理支撑，下周二的会议大概率不调整政策，押重注赌方向性价比不高。真正被交易的不是某个 headline，而是"支撑能不能守住"这件事本身，以及守住之后风险偏好会不会从 BTC 往外溢。 偏多路径：如果 80000 稳住，政策落地后资金可能从 BTC 扩散到平台币和基础设施板块，节奏上会先看到补涨而不是全面开花。潜在风险：短线那批随时准备出的筹码一旦集中释放，低市值、浅流动性的小币会最先被抽走买盘，跌起来会比想象中快。 资金偏好这个镜头下，我关注的是钱更愿意停在确定性高的地方，还是开始往弹性大的方Looks quite lively, but not many people are putting in real money.
Current price is $0.42, up 3.14%, with a trading volume of only 10,000,000U.
Open interest is 121,500,000 contracts, down 0.95%. Fee rate is 0.0044%.
This is stock interconnection, not driven by new money. Don't rush to chase, wait until the open interest really picks up. $ONDO Staring at the screen for ten minutes, I seriously suspect that Tom Lee and I live in two parallel universes.
He just posted that Ethereum is expected to rise to $62,000 in the next cycle.
But on my screen, the number is 2319.
The gap between these two is more surreal than falling directly from outer space into the Mariana Trench.
In this giant quantum collider called the "market," retail investors' emotions are like particles accelerated to the extreme.
Look at the 4-hour chart, falling from 2778 straight down, without even forming a decent resistance zone, crashing directly to 2282.
Now it has slightly rebounded to 2319, and countless people think "the bottom is here."
But the truth is the main force has already set up a "Truman Show" above 2300.
They beat the drums and tell you "the future is beautiful," making you catch those blood-stained chips here.
Look up at those three EMA lines pressed down tightly, then listen to the death cross sound of MACD underwater—that's the machine running wildly, devouring liquidity with a roar.
As for me? I built a safe cabin for myself in the eye of this storm. My short position averaged at 2583, now floating with a 1027% profit.
The forced liquidation price is far away at 2773, with a vacuum zone of over four hundred dollars in between, enough time for me to watch a whole sci-fi movie.
You guys using high leverage to go long below are like walking a tightrope; a slight gust (a spike) will shatter you.
As for me, even if the main force tries to spin the $62,000 story and pulls up a few hundred dollars, it’s just a hologram in a sci-fi movie to me, not hurting the real body at all.
For the next script, I think there’s no need to use common sense to speculate.
That previous low at 2282 is like the edge of a black hole that could leak air anytime. As long as it dares to rebound to 2400 to create illusions for the bulls, that’s the perfect spot for me to keep filling the black hole.
Don’t challenge the bottom line of capital with carbon-based logic, and don’t believe those grand macro narratives that paint big pictures.
All you NPCs, how long do you plan to stubbornly hold on in this virtual world?
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ 🌌 Early Tuesday morning, the real positions of three on-chain protocols before the decision
$HYPE 76, the on-chain exchange dropped from 80 and hasn't returned ⚡
Hyperliquid builds its order book on a self-developed L1, and protocol fees flowing back to token holders is a long-term logic. 76 is still some distance from the previous high of 80, and $ENA rose 8 points yesterday but it didn't follow, indicating that funds chose an interest-earning direction rather than the on-chain exchange. Thin trading at dawn, don't bottom-fish this kind of coin early.
$ENA 0.205, after rising 8 points yesterday, it is sideways today 🚀
USDe is backed by short-term US Treasury bonds earning interest; the market preemptively traded rate cut expectations yesterday, pushing it up 8 points. Today it holds steady at 0.205 without further surge, indicating that chasing funds have temporarily stopped. The decision is early the day after tomorrow, with an 84.5% probability of no change. If the rate cut expectation fails, these 8 points could be given back, so don't chase.
$ASTER 0.698, multi-chain contract DEX still idle 🛰️
Perpetual contracts are deployed on several chains, with fees and market-making rebate pool rules all set, but trading volume is only a few hundred thousand USD. Funds are chasing coins with interest rate stories; this kind of new chain without catalysts is overlooked and needs events to attract users.
This article is for market analysis only and does not constitute investment advice.
#Coinbase整合Deribit，Q3收入能否改善？ #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？
Hynix Q3 Earnings Preview: Profit Side to Exceed Expectations Again, but the Real Variable for Stock Price Is the HBM Market Share Battle
Citigroup expects Q3 operating profit of 81.3 trillion KRW, about 8% higher than the market consensus of 75.5 trillion KRW, a year-on-year surge of 614%; revenue is expected to be 101.2 trillion KRW, up 314% year-on-year. Operating margin approaches 80%, setting a record for the sixth consecutive quarter. The driving force is clear: AI inference demand drives DRAM average prices up 28% quarter-on-quarter, NAND up 24%, and eSSD demand is expected to grow 52.9% by 2027. As a major supplier of high-density QLC NAND, Hynix directly benefits.
If actual figures are close to Citigroup's forecast, exceeding expectations is almost certain. However, whether the stock price will rise depends on two signals from the earnings call: first, the pricing and volume ramp of HBM4. The company has entered Nvidia Vera Rubin's supply chain, and the price increase of HBM4 is key to continued margin expansion; second, shareholder return measures. The market expects the company to announce increased dividends or buyback cancellations at the earnings meeting, having previously completed a 40 trillion KRW buyback.
The risk lies in: Bernstein data shows Samsung's Q3 HBM revenue is about $8.7 billion, surpassing Hynix's $7.6 billion, with HBM market share dropping from 64% to 50%. If the market interprets the market share loss as a weakening of competitive barriers, the better-than-expected profits may be offset by a "valuation kill".Bitcoin’s Midterm Election Curse: Will $73K–$75K Be the Ultimate Test?
Bitcoin hasn’t escaped the midterm election curse in any of the past four cycles.
📉 Historical drawdowns: ▪️ 2010: -72% ▪️ 2014: -65% ▪️ 2018: -52% ▪️ 2022: -27%
Q4 has been equally brutal. Three of the past four midterm election years ended the quarter in the red, with losses of 16.7% in 2014, 42% in 2018, and 14.75% in 2022.#DailyOrbit 🔥 BTC midterm election curse draws attention again! $80,000 lost, the real key support may be at $73,000–$75,000!
🔴 Historical warning: In past US midterm election years, Bitcoin has experienced significant pullbacks, with some bear market lows appearing after the elections. But the sample size is limited, and historical patterns do not guarantee a repeat this time.
🟠 Cost zone battle: If short-term holders’ cost is around $73,000 and Strategy’s average holding cost is about $75,446, the $73,000–$75,000 range deserves close observation. If a rebound is supported after a dip, the market structure still has a chance to recover; if it breaks down effectively, deeper pullbacks should be watched for.
🟢 Key price levels: After losing $80,000, first watch the $79,000–$78,000 area, then focus on the core support at $73,000–$75,000. The liquidation heatmap only reflects potential risk concentration zones and does not guarantee the price will necessarily reach them.
🔵 Personal judgment: The election may amplify volatility, but macro liquidity, ETF funds, and market cycles are more important variables. Don’t just focus on the “election curse,” pay more attention to whether the support holds.
⚠️ Risk reminder: Historical data and cost estimates need verification; key price levels do not equal absolute bottoms. Control leverage and be cautious when bottom-fishing!
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $BTC $ETH $SOL $AAVE
In the afternoon, I saw a peer's complaint saying that DeFi has completely gone silent this round, and old protocols like Aave are waiting to be forgotten.
No sooner had they spoken than the news came out: Aave V4 deposits exceeded $1.5 billion, hitting a record high. Real money is flowing in; this number can't be faked.
Looking at the coin price, AAVE is currently at 136, fluctuating between 139 and 133.58 in 24 hours, basically standing still. Deposits hit a new high, but the coin price is dozing off—this mismatch is quite interesting.
I understand that this round of incremental funds is going straight for yield, rarely detouring to buy governance tokens. This is the common problem of old DeFi: the protocol makes money, but the token suffers. No one knows when this problem will be fixed; anyway, I’m not betting on it.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Holding the integer threshold does not equal a completed breakout. My personal market observation is: the more $BTC oscillates around eighty thousand dollars, the easier it is for people to mistake a brief stabilization as trend confirmation. For now, I am not chasing this move.
Kraken's public quote is about $80,125; DB's original judgment places the threshold for structural strengthening between $81,000 and $81,500. The price has not yet reached his confirmation zone, so we cannot say "not yet triggered" means the bulls have already won, nor can we substitute floating profits from other coins for validation of the main market.
I pay more attention to whether it can hold after breaking through at the close, and whether selling pressure weakens on the pullback. If these conditions appear simultaneously, I will overturn my judgment of not chasing the rise; if it falls back below $80,000 and fails to rebound above, the current assumption of stabilization fails, and it is more appropriate to continue waiting rather than guessing the bottom.
My comprehensive judgment is: the integer level only provides an observation coordinate; the follow-through after the breakout determines whether the judgment is upgraded. Risk is controlled first by invalidation conditions, not by adding leverage to compensate for insufficient confirmation. Would you prioritize the close after the breakout, or the pullback follow-through? This is only a personal observation and does not constitute investment advice.@天晴 ETH 这场最明显的矛盾，是他嘴上不断抱怨以太坊弱，方向上却仍然坚持看多。半导体相关持仓开始反弹，以太坊还在磨，他承认这种强弱差异，也没有因为短线表现难看，就宣布原来的多头判断已经结束。 对$ETH，他反复提到的参与位置是2300附近做多。他说，下午围绕这个位置参与，曾经有过向2330附近反弹的过程。这里说的是他当时的交易思路和已有行情，不是后来任何价格都可以无条件追进去。 他希望看到2400、2450，但这两个数字在直播里的表达，更接近对反弹的期待，而不是一套已经完成确认的突破计划。只记住目标，忽略价格是否真正摆脱弱势，会把他的方向判断误读成短线确定性。 他自己也看到了问题：以太坊对比特币的汇率持续偏弱，同一阶段里，BTC和半导体相关标的表现更好。也就是说，他的多单判断，并不是建立在ETH已经成为最强品种的前提上，恰恰相反，他是在承认弱势的情况下，继续等待修复。 为什么还愿意拿？天晴在后段把目前区域理解为日线级别的中枢或启动前整理，认为此前从低位上涨后的回踩，并不必然意味着后面没有空间。他据此选择分批参与，而不是只看一两根短周期K线，就不断改变方向。 但这仍然是他的结构理解。🔥 BTC falls below $80,000, ETH drops under 2300! After the weekend's broad decline, will the market continue to test the bottom?
🔴 Reasons for the decline: Rising US Treasury yields, cooling rate cut expectations, combined with outflows from spot ETFs, putting pressure on risk assets. Weekend liquidity was weak, and after key supports were broken, leveraged liquidations further amplified the drop.
🟠 Short-term trend: It is currently unwise to hastily conclude a market reversal; most likely, consolidation is still needed to digest selling pressure. If the Federal Reserve signals a neutral stance and outflows slow down, BTC and ETH may see an oversold rebound, but resistance remains strong above, and a rebound does not equal a trend reversal.
🟢 Key observations: Focus on the upcoming FOMC decision, ETF fund flows, and changes in US Treasury yields. If policy signals turn hawkish and outflows continue, the market still faces further downside risk.
🔵 Personal judgment: We are currently in a high-volatility game phase; first observe whether selling pressure weakens before judging if the rebound can continue. Do not blindly bottom-fish due to continuous declines, nor recklessly chase gains on short-term rebounds.
⚠️ Risk reminder: Control position sizes and leverage, strictly stop losses on short-term trades, and build long-term positions in batches to avoid betting all at once on one direction!
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $BTC $ETH $ZEC Today BNB rang the bell at Nasdaq. OKX has been busy all day cutting OKB for compliance, basically removing all the empowerment of OKB, making a complete mess, and as a result, BNB directly rang the bell at Nasdaq! How ironic 😰
Now US fund managers can enter $BNC in their brokerage accounts to get exposure to $BNB.
This is the first time $BNB has had an official entry point to communicate with Wall Street.
OKX has been thinking about listing and splitting OKB all day, but BNB Chain snatched the opportunity 😅😅😅
Part of today's bell ringing is also for these people.#HOODQ3TradingGrowth
Robinhood’s blockchain trading volume and social sentiment have declined since mid-September, while on-chain lending and trading deposits are rising. Its blockchain business is shifting from meme-driven hype toward diversified platform growth. #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ SK Hynix Q3 Earnings Report Approaching: Profit May Break Records Again, but HBM4 Becomes a "Semi-Finished" Engine
On October 28, SK Hynix will release its Q3 2026 results. Market consensus expects revenue of about 98 trillion KRW, operating profit around 77 trillion KRW, and an operating margin close to 78%—if realized, it would mark the sixth consecutive quarter of record-breaking performance.
On the surface, the AI memory cycle remains frenzied, with general DRAM price increases and HBM inventory demand pushing profits to historic highs. But the real focus is on HBM4: the company began mass production shipments in Q2, and volume was expected to accelerate in the second half of the year. However, Korean media and industry sources indicate that Q3 shipments have fallen below expectations for the second consecutive quarter. The delay of Nvidia's Rubin platform and time-consuming mass production tuning have caused some capacity to shift back to traditional DRAM.
More critically, the competitive landscape is changing. Institutions like Bernstein estimate that Samsung's Q3 HBM revenue may have already surpassed SK Hynix's, with the market share gap rapidly narrowing from over thirty percentage points. SK's first-mover advantage remains, but the "one dominant player" situation has loosened.
Therefore, this quarter's record-breaking results rely more on old momentum, and the real boost from HBM4 depends on specific figures from the earnings call: shipment pace, customer long-term contract implementation, and 2027 capacity planning. High profits are a fact, but the market wants to confirm—how stable is the next growth engine really?#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ Low volume tug-of-war, don't rush to reach out yet
After this round of BTC's dip, it was pulled back again, hitting a low of 79,431, then returning near 80,000. The pattern indeed looks like a shakeout. ETH also fell below 2,300 before climbing back, indicating some support below, but the strength of that support is not strong yet. Among mainstream coins, ZEC is relatively resilient; although it fell back today, the weekly chart still shows an uptrend, making it one of the few directions still worth watching.
The fundamentals currently don't provide much stimulus. Standard Chartered's stablecoin is not rushing to advance, institutional funds still need time to enter, so it's hard to expect external incremental support in the short term. More importantly, the trading volume: BTC's single-day volume is only 16.2 billion, clearly shrinking, and the rebound lacks follow-up buying, more like internal funds competing with each other.
At this stage, chasing highs or selling lows is most to be avoided. My judgment is simple: if BTC can't reclaim 80,500 and ETH can't hold above 2,350, it's still garbage time, and entering now risks getting hit from both ends. The low-volume slow decline is the most wearing; just hold on for now and wait for the trend to become clear before making a move.
Personal opinion, not investment advice.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #HOODQ3TradingGrowth
In terms of data, Robinhood's blockchain trading volume has declined since mid-September.
From the user sentiment perspective, people are also discussing the Robinhood market less on social platforms, and sentiment is declining.
There is a positive trend as deposits in lending and on-chain trading apps have increased over the past week.
Robinhood's on-chain business is also evolving; the Meme phase that attracted attention has passed, and now is the period of building a diversified platform.
$xHOOD $BTC briefly fell below $80,000 in the short term, but fortunately, the daily candles in the past few days have all closed above $80,000. If it can still close above today, it still leans toward weak consolidation, with a volume breakout above 81,000 targeting 82,600.
If the daily candle falls below 80,000, then look toward 78,000 or even lower.
The $BTC pullback that started after 8 AM on Thursday continued to pressure various markets and tech stocks on Friday, causing declines.
My personal analysis is that the trigger was AI trading investors beginning to question the returns on massive AI investments, leading to pressure on tech stocks and crypto being classified as risk assets, thus falling along with them.
At the same time, ETF funds experienced a sharp reversal, with over $1 billion inflow at the start of the week, but $770 million was withdrawn directly over Thursday and Friday.
On the other hand, oil prices remain high, putting pressure on risk assets.
In the short term, the macro and leverage pressures over Bitcoin are very real.
Risk appetite is indeed contracting in the short term, but the contraction is not a full retreat. The counter-trend capital inflow into $ZEC shows that as long as the story is sufficiently independent, there are still people willing to buy at this point.
#BTC Market Analysis #AI Tech Under Pressure$ETH is currently leaning bearish, but it's not a reckless short; it's a short after a rebound meets resistance, with small positions and stop-losses.
Technically, the ascending channel has already been broken, selling pressure remains active, long-term holders are also offloading, and the Glamsterdam upgrade has been delayed again. The bearish logic is consistent. However, there is support around 2,250, and the ETF just saw a single-day net inflow, so shorting at the support level is not advisable.上一轮牛市里，$BTC 一共出现6次大幅回调，每次幅度都落在20%–30%区间；而上一轮熊市的最大回撤是77%，本轮熊市至今回撤53%。这两个数字放在一起，指向一个容易被忽略的结构性变化：波动率正在逐轮收敛。📉 收敛带来的直接后果是，想复制过去的收益率，市场必须加更大的杠杆。这也解释了为什么如今一次看起来"平常"的波动，爆掉的$BTC 多头仓位就能和上一轮大级别下跌时相当——不是行情变凶了，而是仓位变脆了。清算量已经成为观察真实杠杆水平的窗口，而不是价格的附属指标。 按同样的收敛逻辑推演，本轮牛市阶段的单次回调幅度应落在10%–15%区间。这个区间比历史更窄，意味着两件事：一是深度回调的"上车窗口"会越来越短，等大跌的人可能等不到；二是杠杆清算的触发门槛同步下移，小幅波动就足以完成过去大幅波动才能做到的仓位清洗。 当前正处在这轮调整的末段。这个判断的关键不在于价格是否还会再探低点，而在于波动收敛这条主线是否延续——如果后续回调继续被压缩在10%–15%以内、且清算量维持高位，说明市场结构仍在按收敛路径运行，调整接近尾声的推论就成立；反之，若回撤突破这一区间，则收敛逻辑本身需要重新审视From the current structure, recent market participants overall remain in a floating profit state, and the short- to medium-term cost structure is still relatively positive. Historically, when the market is in an uptrend, the realized price by traders often acts as support when BTC retraces close to that level. If the price can hold this cost line, it indicates that the recent participants' holding costs may still provide support to the market; conversely, if BTC breaks below this level, some traders in a floating loss state might sell when the price rebounds close to their cost, turning this position from support into resistance. Additionally, attention should be paid to the upper band of the indicator historically: when BTC price approaches the upper band, it is often accompanied by increased profit-taking pressure and may lead to a short-term pullback. Therefore, if BTC continues to rise, the market reaction near the upper band deserves close observation; if BTC pulls back, focus should be on whether the traders' realized price can provide effective support. It is emphasized that the upper band does not necessarily mean the market has peaked, and the traders' realized price does not guarantee BTC will rebound; neither should be seen as an automatic trading trigger but rather as reference indicators to judge at what price levels recent market participants might change behavior. Currently, BTC is still trading above the traders' realized price, and the overall cost structure remains positive; if a deeper correction occurs later, whether this indicator can continue to provide support will be an important observation point. #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $BTC Bitcoin fell below 80,000, and almost all the liquidations were longs.
According to CoinGlass data, 95.7% of liquidations in the past hour were leveraged long positions, with shorts barely affected. However, during the same period, large wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC have increased their holdings by about 110,000 BTC over the past four to five weeks, marking the fastest accumulation rate this year.
What happened? The price drop was driven by forced liquidations of leveraged longs, not active selling by whales.
Why is this noteworthy? If whales were dumping, we would see large transfers into exchanges on-chain; but the data shows the opposite — high-leverage retail positions were liquidated, and large wallets were accumulating below.
Which observation is more supported? It supports the "leverage liquidation" narrative rather than "trend selling." But this does not confirm a bottom; it just means the chip structure is rotating.
Next, watch two things: the Federal Reserve meeting on October 27–28 for its tone on risk appetite, and whether weekly ETF net inflows can continue. Either the whales’ patience or the leverage’s patience will run out first — which do you think it will be? Share your thoughts in the comments. $BTC #BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？
"Bitcoin ETF Net Outflow, Institutional Divergence Intensifies"
Bitcoin has been tugging back and forth around the $80,000 mark these past two days. After surging to $84,500 on October 21, it faced large sell-offs for several consecutive days, even dropping below $80,000 on October 24.
Spot ETF funds on the market are no longer buying unilaterally; many institutional arbitrage traders are busy closing positions and exiting. Daily trading volume has steadily declined from $550 million, with spot buying clearly shrinking.
The battle around $80,400 remains intense. If heavy redemption pressure persists, it will be difficult for the market to quickly organize a decent rebound in the short term. $BTC $FIL has been lingering at the bottom for a long time. The real issue may not be the lack of project progress, but rather the token's insufficient value capture ability.
Storage infrastructure continues to upgrade, and paid services are gradually being implemented, but customers are more accustomed to settling in fiat currency, and service providers may sell FIL immediately after receiving it. Coupled with linear issuance, spot selling pressure from exchanges, and crowded market bulls, improvements in fundamentals are difficult to directly translate into sustained buying pressure.
FIL does have long-term value; the real key lies in whether the network can shift from a computing power narrative to genuine paid storage demand.
To break out into an independent market trend, several conditions need to be met:
• Establish a true FIL payment and settlement closed loop
• Continuously reduce circulating supply to ease supply pressure
• Coordinate with bull market capital rotation to attract incremental funds
Before these conditions are gradually fulfilled, FIL is more likely to continue experiencing bottom consolidation and repeated tug-of-war.
Being optimistic about long-term development does not necessarily mean short-term price increases. For FIL, the hardest part may not be price decline, but the long wait and repeatedly tested patience.
#SKhynixQ3HBM4Earnings #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ Obviously notBefore the FOMC, don't bet on direction
$BTC: Repeated battles around the 80,000 level
• Dipped to 79,280, four consecutive daily declines, 80,000 shifted from support to a contested zone
• 24h total network liquidations about 578 million, bulls account for 91%
• Retail long-short ratio 0.4861, liquidations increased, but open interest rose against the trend
• ETF weekly net inflow 301 million, outflow of 773 million in the last two days of the week
• Key level: 79,200 is the defense line, only above 82,000 can recovery be discussed
$ETH: Bullish exposure not yet fully cleared
• Low at 2,276, currently around 2,320, cumulative October drop over 12%
• Long liquidations account for 74%; ETH ETF lost 1.18 billion in October
• Hayes liquidated ETH holdings, upgrade delayed, sentiment under pressure
• Long-short ratio still 2.46, more downside fuel than BTC
• If 2,300 breaks, look to 2,220; open interest over 30 billion, may amplify liquidations
In short
BTC is being minced, ETH is clearing accounts. Before the FOMC release, surviving volatility is more important than betting on direction.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 🚨 $TSLA Tesla Q3 earnings released! Profit plummeted nearly 43%, pre-market stock price dropped 4.6%, but is this earnings report really all bad news?
Brothers, first look at the most eye-catching data:
📉 Net profit down 42.99% year-over-year! Revenue about $27.8 billion, growth sluggish, but profit sharply shrank. No wonder the market's first reaction was to sell first, after all, investors' expectations for Tesla have never been just about selling cars.
But looking further down, things aren't that simple! 👇
📈 Auto business shows signs of improvement Excluding regulatory credits, automotive gross margin rose from 16.3% to 17.98%. In a fiercely competitive pricing environment, the gross margin rebound is noteworthy, indicating cost control may be taking effect.
💰 Free cash flow turns positive, cash generation ability draws attention Free cash flow reached $1.531 billion, which helps us better assess the company's cash situation than just looking at net profit. However, whether this improvement can be sustained still needs to be verified in subsequent quarters.
🔋 Energy storage business shines Energy storage deployment reached 13.68 GWh, with a gross margin of 33.33%. The energy business is becoming an indispensable part of Tesla's earnings report.
🤖 The real long-term focus: FSD and Robotaxi FSD paid users exceed 1.71 million, and projects like Robotaxi and Cybercab remain future growth directions that the market is watching. But how much revenue and profit these businesses will ultimately contribute still depends on commercialization progress.Americans no longer believe that prices will come back down.
Latest survey from the University of Michigan:
Prices will continue to rise for the next several years—3.5%.
This is higher than any month in 2019 or 2024.
High prices, just raise interest rates.
But people's mindset has changed, no solution.
The same goes for crypto:
The price of crypto is not determined by inflation,
but by those "willing to take risks."
But the number of risk-takers is decreasing.
Bitcoin has dropped 2.42% in 7 days, 4.64% in a month.
My view:
The drop is not surprising.
It's not that something is wrong with the crypto,
it's that fewer people want to buy.
Until people come back, the decline will continue. $PI has three ways the market values it
$BTC is valued through scarcity, liquidity, and its potential role as a crypto reserve asset. Institutional flows are important.
$ETH is valued through on-chain activity: stablecoins, decentralized finance, fees, and ecosystem capital.
$SOL carries a growth narrative: users, transactions, applications, and liquidity must expand to support higher valuations.
Same market, but different frameworks. Price is the outcome; capital flows and real activity require confirmation. Model tracking high-frequency data leans toward a high growth of 3.5%; professional institutions consistently expect it to fall within the 2.2%–2.8% range, with a midpoint of 2.5%.Filecoin’s proposition is straightforward: decentralized storage should offer useful alternatives for storing and retrieving data. The harder question is commercial demand. Storage capacity alone does not establish that customers are paying for services at sustainable rates. Assessing Filecoin means distinguishing network supply from actual utilization, while considering retrieval performance, pricing, and competition from conventional cloud-storage providers.📉 The $ETH weekend market finally got through! The real test might only start next week!
Brothers, this weekend's crypto market was really exhausting, with light trading and limited volatility. I wonder if you guys made profits or got tormented by the market these past two days?
⚠️ There are several key variables next week that must be closely watched!
1️⃣ The trend of the US stock market may determine the short-term direction of the crypto market.
This week, the crypto market was generally under pressure, and the volatility of the US stock market also affected market sentiment. With the development of stock tokenization and leveraged ETFs like SOXL, KORU, MUU attracting trading funds, some risk capital has more allocation options. However, whether funds continue to flow out of the crypto market still needs to be judged based on actual data.
2️⃣ The technical positions of BTC and ETH have already diverged.
From the Fibonacci retracement structure, BTC has not even touched the 0.5 retracement level yet, and its overall structure is relatively strong; while ETH is gradually approaching the key 0.618 area.
This indicates a difference in the adjustment range between the two, but we cannot conclude that ETH is continuously losing funds based on this alone. What needs to be observed next is whether the key positions can hold and whether there is volume support during rebounds.
3️⃣ The opening of the US stock market on Monday is an important observation window.
If the US stock market stabilizes and rebounds, the crypto market might have a chance to recover; if the US stock market continues to drop, both BTC and ETH may face further pressure.
Especially ETH,Samsung's Q3 profit is expected to increase nearly 8 times. A warming risk appetite often drives crypto assets to rise, but this wave for ZEC looks more like a structural opportunity. Overall, I am cautiously bullish. The current quote is 1245.09, up 2.9% in 24 hours. The bullish momentum remains but it is no longer cheap. The four-hour chart shows 17.90% above the low and -8.22% below the high. The short-term risk of chasing highs is considerable, so position sizing must be carefully considered before deciding direction.
The top 10 buy orders total 1439 against 866 sell orders, with a ratio of 1.66, favoring buyers, but the turnover is only 94.187 million, indicating volume is not solid; the funding rate is 0.0070%, which is neutral. The coin-margined positions total 114,000, indicating leverage sentiment is not overheated. The upward resistance is at 1258.63, and the support to watch on pullback is 1203.47. If volume breaks below this level, the short-term structure weakens.
Strategy-wise, accumulate long positions in batches on pullbacks to 1218.35, set stop loss at 1196.82, and target 1256.47, with a risk-reward ratio of about 1.8. Do not chase if it surges directly; wait for pullback confirmation. Control single trade positions within 20%, exit immediately if stop loss triggers, do not hold losing positions or add to average down.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wish you smooth trading. —
$ZEC #SK Hynix Q3 earnings are coming, can HBM4 boost profits?
#Samsung Q3 profit expected to increase nearly 8 times, full earnings report coming soon
$ZEC This week is quite critical. On October 28, the Federal Reserve decision; on the 29th, the September PCE—two events back to back, so BTC and ETH volatility is inevitable.
But I don't think there's any suspense about the interest rate itself. The market bets the probability of no change this time is over 90%, with rates likely to stay between 3.75% and 4.00%, which is basically a known fact. What we really need to listen to is what Waller says at the press conference. On October 16 at the IMF, he said, "I won't predict the meeting outcome," which directly dropped the odds of a rate hike in October from over 25% to about 15%. If he continues this tone, risk assets can catch a breather; but if he suddenly emphasizes inflation risks, US Treasuries and the dollar will rally, and high Beta assets will get hit again. Regarding the PCE, the market expects the core annual rate at 3.1% and the overall at 3.6%, both slightly higher than previous values. If it just meets expectations, the damage will be limited; what we really need to guard against is a core PCE significantly exceeding expectations, which would reignite expectations for a rate hike in December.
I won't repeat too much about the price levels. BTC 80,000 is the short-term defense line; only after reclaiming 82,000 to 82,500 can we talk about structural improvement. ETH 2,290 to 2,300 is the key battleground between bulls and bears; if it can't reclaim 2,360 to 2,400, the short-term remains weak.
In such an event-packed week, the direction will most likely be given only after the data is released; betting in advance has low cost-effectiveness. It's more reliable to wait until Waller finishes speaking, the PCE is released, and the market has chosen sides before making moves, rather than guessing now.
$BTC $DOGE $ETH
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 80,431 is the upper edge of the contested zone pulled back from 79,330, not a firm hold above 80,000. Four consecutive daily declines + 4-hour bearish alignment + ETF losing 770 million in two days + perpetual longs "paying to hold"—these four facts point to the same conclusion: this wave is a correction, not a reversal. 81,029 is the momentum improvement line, and $82,000 is the real confirmation level. Before the FOMC decision, shorting on rallies is following the trend, chasing longs is against it. Those with positions should defend 79,300 well; those without should wait for the decision to provide direction. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ The two lifelines of the public chain giants: SOL ecosystem's hot coin price cools down, BNB quietly resists the drop the most
First, look at SOL. $101, down 48% in a year, still 65% below the all-time high of 295.
But all ecosystem news is positive: Alpenglow upgrade reduces transaction confirmation to 150 milliseconds; Samsung Wallet's 82 million Galaxy devices will support Solana on-chain USDC transfers by the end of this month; Securitize has brought Apple and Nvidia stock tokens onto SOL; MoneyGram has come to be a validator. Coin price and ecosystem are going their separate ways.
Now look at BNB. $738, market cap $102.2 billion, firmly in fourth place, only down 5% this month—during the same period SOL dropped 17%, DOGE dropped 22%.
The logic is straightforward: BNB is backed by real cash flow from the exchange, with buyback and burn as solid support; SOL relies on ecosystem narrative, which is least valuable during a rate hike cycle.
In a bear market, look at cash flow; in a bull market, look at imagination. The data has already told you what kind of market it is now.
In your holdings, do you have more cash flow or more imagination? $SOL $DOGE $BNB @BTC星辰 这场最大的变化，不是从多头变成空头，而是从想把反弹拿成一段行情，逐步转向反复强调防守。闪迪上去又下来，美光相对更强，他开始明确表示：如果要减仓，优先减掉最弱的那个，而不是因为已经开了多单，就把所有标的一起扛到底。 先说清最终状态。星辰下播时仍然表示，多单还在，主要持仓包括英特尔、美光、闪迪和海力士。因此，不能把他中途说过的“想平掉”“拿不住了”，写成已经全部离场；也不能只留下最后一句“继续拿”，删掉中间不断变得谨慎的风险提示。 闪迪是全场压力最大的一笔。他多次提到，自己的持仓成本在1270附近，价格回到成本一带时没有退出，随后又承受了一轮回落。他原本想多拿一段，但弱势和反复震荡，让这笔交易从等待反弹，变成必须盯住防守条件。 开场阶段，他给出的新参与参考是1250附近，也谈到1250至1260一带可以考虑，止损先参考1220。这是这场的新说法，不应直接把上一场的入场计划搬过来。 随着盘面转弱，他又多次要求已有闪迪仓位的人，在1230附近设置止损。到后段，他同时提到1220、1230都可以作为防守参考，并且强调不要硬扛。更准确的整理，是他把1220至1230视为需要认真执行防