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#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？
Market attention is focused on SK Hynix's Q3 earnings report. Many see HBM4 as the key to turning around performance, but a crucial point must be recognized: it is difficult for Q3 profits to be significantly boosted by HBM4.
HBM4 is still in the early validation stage, with limited shipment volume in Q3. Real volume ramp-up is expected in Q4. Profit support this quarter still comes from long-term HBM3E contracts and traditional DRAM price increases.
Risks are also prominent: Samsung is rapidly catching up in HBM, continuously squeezing market share; meanwhile, AI customer capital expenditure rhythms fluctuate, and if computing power purchases slow down, storage prices can easily come under pressure.
My view: The focus of this earnings report is not current profits, but management's guidance on HBM4 yield rates, customer certifications, and next year's capacity. If guidance exceeds expectations, the storage sector will sustain momentum; if HBM4 deployment falls short, earlier gains will quickly be given back.
Impact on the crypto market: AI storage prosperity will indirectly affect tech stock risk appetite, thereby driving BTC and ETH volatility.
Contract strategy: Reduce heavy positions before the earnings report. After the report, if guidance exceeds expectations, lightly try going long on storage-related targets; if guidance is weak, prioritize watching or lightly try shorting, strictly stop losses, and avoid heavy bets on the data.Damn, brothers, before the US stock market opened I was hoping for money to come back, but after the open it almost sent people away. BTC dropped to around 79,400 then recovered back to 80,000, ETH just dipped below 2,300 then bounced back to 2,321. Looking at these needles, I really want to curse. When it goes down, I think it can still fall, but when it pulls up, I feel like I should have bought earlier. Just watching the market can make you anxious.
If I had to choose now, I'd rather focus on SOL. BTC is at 80,025, still hasn't touched the 15-minute 20 moving average at 80,235; ETH is also stuck below 2,324. SOL has already reclaimed 101.47 and climbed to 101.74. They've all taken a hit, but SOL is recovering faster, so I'm more willing to reserve some of my long positions for it.
But I don't want to chase at 101.7, it just turned down near 102, and if I buy now, there might not even be room to breathe. I want to see if it can hold between 101.3 and 101.5 for a while, so it doesn't just reclaim the moving average and then fall through again. If it really drops, I guess I'll hesitate because I'm afraid this strength might be fake. I'll buy a little first; if it can't hold 101, I'll exit. No more talking about catching rebounds only to get stuck and start analyzing long-term value again. Around 102.2, I want to take profits, at least to grind through the previous sell orders.
For now, I'll watch BTC; the 80,000 line is busy enough tonight. It's still struggling below the moving average. I don't want to buy BTC, ETH, and SOL all at once, only to watch all three positions drop together on the same bearish candle. #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #谷歌云业务增长82%，AI投入回报如何？
Google Q2 cloud business revenue reached $24.8 billion, up 82% year-over-year, with a profit margin of 35.6% and unfulfilled orders totaling $514 billion. The growth rate is even stronger than search, with incremental gains already surpassing search.
The cost is also obvious: Q2 capital expenditure was $44.9 billion, doubling, and free cash flow turned negative for the first time (about -$5.9 billion). The full-year capital expenditure guidance was raised to $195-205 billion.
So for the Q3 earnings report after the market closes on October 28, the focus is not on whether cloud will continue to grow, but whether the spending is worth it:
• Can cloud growth rate reach over 90%
• Can profit margin continue to expand
• Will capital expenditure be raised again
With orders and profit margins rising, I tend to believe AI investments are starting to pay off. The real risk is cash flow, not demand.With a principal of $250, a bot generated a profit of $13,000. The author said that not a single line of code was written from scratch; it was an open-source project found on GitHub, cleaned up with AI for a few hours, modified in a few places, and then let it run on its own.
He originally thought the account would be wiped out within an hour. Instead, he minimized the terminal to do other work, and when he came back at night, the $250 had turned into over $600. Since then, the logs have been displayed on a secondary screen to monitor trades.
The strategy relies entirely on time windows. For each 5-minute BTC session, it only acts in the last 2 minutes. By then, most of the volatility has passed, and the direction is basically clear. It checks if BTC has moved unilaterally by $70 to $100 in this round; if so, it follows the trend to buy contracts priced between $0.80 and $0.99, which settle at $1 after a few minutes.
Doing the math makes it clear what kind of money is being made. Buying at 0.95 and settling at 1.00 yields a 5% profit each time. Winning ten times accumulates half a position, while losing once almost wipes out the entire principal. It doesn’t rely on prediction but stacks thin profits through a high win rate.
The technical threshold is already very low; the real challenge lies ahead: you have to read the open-source code yourself, never hand over private keys to unknown versions; three consecutive losses halve the account. Others show off the $13,000 profit, but they don’t reveal how many drawdowns they can endure or how many parameters they adjusted along the way.#Coinbase整合Deribit，Q3收入能否改善？ Coinbase's Q2 revenue dropped about 18%, but subscription services reached 555 million. On October 29, Q3 results will be released, and everyone is watching: can spot trading recover, and can derivatives and USDC support a new story after integrating Deribit?
The community puts it more bluntly — cramming spot, derivatives, and stocks into one app to break through; on the USDC side, rumors say Circle only keeps 7 cents of every 1 dollar revenue, with the bulk going to Coinbase, relying on compliance barriers for thin profits.
It's like running a nightclub that keeps expanding: when there were few people at the door, it relied on membership cards, and now it has also entered the derivatives arena. Whether revenue improves depends on whether trading volume returns, not just on adding a few logos. $BTC 80,000, broken
Just tonight, Bitcoin fell below 80,000 USD, hitting a low near 79,500.
Once this level breaks, the nature changes. 81,500 is the average cost line for spot ETFs, and now the coin price is running below the institutional cost line—institutions buying ETFs are overall at a floating loss. Glassnode's previous warning is coming true: effectively breaking the cost line, the next support to watch is 77,600.
The market had actually given signals early: ETFs had a net outflow of 773 million USD last week, whales were accumulating while exchange balances declined, and bulls and bears have been tugging at the 80,000 mark for a full ten days. Tonight, the bears take the first win.
Ethereum is even more spineless, drifting down near 2,350 USD, with the ETH/BTC rate continuously weakening—falling harder than the big brother when dropping, rising slower when climbing, this is ETH's awkward situation now.
But pay attention to the time window: Thursday at 2 AM, the Federal Reserve interest rate decision. 79,300 is the iron bottom of the past 30 days; whether 79,287 holds or not will decide if this drop is a fakeout or a real breakdown. Big money is all waiting for that shot, tonight's drop looks more like a pre-clearance.
Where is your stop-loss set? $BTC $ETH Liquidity is back, but why are the first to return the ones dumping? BTC plunged to around 79,400, then pulled back to 80,025; ETH almost broke through 2,300, now at 2,321. Damn, I was hoping for some action before the open, but now that it’s really moving, I don’t dare to jump in.
I’m not in a hurry to catch BTC. The 15-minute 20 moving average is at 80,235, still pressing down, and the MACD hasn’t recovered. Buying near 80,000 now means if it bounces 200 points, I’d have to struggle with whether to sell or not, which is awkward. I’d rather wait to get it back at 80,250, hold if it pulls back, then try a bit more. If I get in and it drops back to 79,900, I’ll leave—I don’t want to get stuck in another plunge. I do want to test 80,500, but since it hasn’t even reclaimed the moving average, I won’t think too far ahead yet.
ETH looks even more frustrating this round. It ground sideways all afternoon, then a few candles after open got dumped back down. The 20 moving average at 2,324 hasn’t been reclaimed, and 2,330–2,338 is where it just fell from, so I’m not keen to trade it for now. Especially around 2,300, it dipped down then recovered, which looks like an opportunity, but if I buy on the spot, I’d probably hesitate again. Let it reclaim 2,330 first; I’m okay with losing ten bucks on this.
On the other hand, SOL pulled back from around 100.5 to 101.74, and the moving average has been reclaimed, so I’m more willing to watch it now. But it just turned down near 102, so chasing here feels late. If it can hold around 101.4, I might try a small position; if it drops below 101, I’ll exit. If it can get back to 102.2, I’ll want to sell—no need to mess around all night, it’s hard-earned profit and I don’t want to give it up.#Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？
Robinhood will release its Q3 earnings report after the market closes on October 27 Eastern Time (around 5 AM Beijing Time on the 28th).
Q2 trading revenue was $776 million, up 44% year-over-year, with the biggest contributor being the prediction market: event contract revenue reached $156 million, increasing more than tenfold year-over-year, already surpassing stock trading revenue. Conversely, crypto revenue fell 38% year-over-year, marking three consecutive quarters of decline.
The market expects Q3 revenue to be about $1.41 billion, with an EPS of 0.54. Crypto trading volume rebounded in August and remained strong in September, so crypto revenue is expected to stop declining.
The key points to watch are: whether the prediction market can continue its high growth and whether crypto can recover. If both legs stand firm, trading business growth can continue; relying on event contracts alone won't sustain the valuation for long.#France's 10-year government bond yield surpasses US Treasuries for the first time since 2013 Intraday, the French 10Y government bond yield surged, exceeding the US 10-year Treasury yield for the first time since 2013. This is a very significant market signal, indicating that the market is assigning a higher risk premium to French sovereign debt, making France the risk focus in the Eurozone bond market.
✅Why has the French bond yield overtaken?
1. Fundamental fiscal weaknesses (core)
France's public debt is about 119% of GDP, with a deficit rate long significantly above the EU's 3% limit. The high welfare system makes it difficult to cut spending, and there is huge resistance to increasing revenue. The market does not believe the government can meet its fiscal consolidation targets. Rating agencies have already downgraded or issued negative outlooks, and investors demand higher interest to compensate for the risk. Large-scale bond issuance is planned for 2027, with many old debts maturing requiring refinancing, creating huge supply pressure.
2. Political uncertainty at its peak
Parliament is divided, street protests are frequent, fiscal budget progress is blocked, and with elections approaching, it is difficult to implement strong austerity policies. The market fears policy deadlock and stalled fiscal reforms.
3. Capital flight, foreign investors withdrawing
Long-term overseas funds from Japan and others have been continuously reducing holdings of French bonds. As their own domestic yields rise, the attractiveness of holding French bonds declines, and selling pressure further pushes yields up.
4. Resonance of both market trends causing the crossover
On one side, French bonds are being continuously sold off, pushing yields higher; on the other side, temporary safe-haven funds flow into US Treasuries, causing US yields to slightly fall. This push and pull completes this historic crossover $BTC #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？
On October 28, SK Hynix will release its Q3 earnings report. The market consensus expects revenue of about 98.2 trillion KRW and operating profit of about 77 trillion KRW, with a profit margin close to 78%, a significant increase from Q2's 60.5 trillion, likely setting a new record for the sixth consecutive quarter.
However, the stock price has recently weakened, and the issue is not with profits but what lies ahead:
• Samsung's HBM yield is catching up, narrowing the market share gap
• Nvidia's Rubin has been delayed, so the ramp-up of HBM4 volume may be slower than expected
I am more focused on three things in the earnings call: HBM4 shipment proportion, long-term contract pricing, and Q4 guidance. As long as HBM4 doesn't fall behind, this profit scale is hard to ignore.
I currently hold a long position in SK Hynix and will not add before the earnings report; I will decide based on the guidance. What are your thoughts?Today, two shadows appeared on-chain, pointing in opposite directions. Shadow one: The exchange saw a single-day outflow of 169,770 ETH, a four-month high. Santiment compared it to June 5th—when 223,800 ETH flowed out, followed by a strong price rebound. The available supply is decreasing; the shadow is leaving the exchange. Shadow two: An ancient address from 2015 that acquired 100,000 ETH at $0.311 moved for the first time in 11 years. 5,000 ETH were transferred out, and 1,500 ETH have already entered a CEX. Chips that have been dormant for eleven years are starting to move; the shadow is heading toward the exchange. There is also a third shadow, not on-chain but in the ETF subscription and redemption reports. From October 1 to 22, the ETH spot ETF recorded a cumulative net outflow exceeding $1 billion. In 16 trading days, 14 days saw outflows. This is not derivative noise; it is the shadow at the spot level systematically exiting the system. Three shadows, two pointing to supply, one pointing to demand. The directions have not formed a unified force. In 24 hours, liquidations totaled $44 million, 74% of which were long positions. Leveraged longs are being cleaned out, but funding rates show longs are not crowded—this means the cleanup may not be over yet, but the cost-effectiveness of continuing to short is also decreasing. My long position cost is $2,300, stuck in the middle of the liquidation range. First, I will watch which side the price hits—if it hits 2,444, then watch the volume; this middle section is uncertain. Purely by intuition, I think this wave’s amplitude will exceed 2444 and may break 3000. What do you think about those 1,500 ancient ETH entering the CEX, is this 【$20 Billion Sold in Two Weeks, Is This What AI Fears Most Finally Happening?】
Global tech stocks saw a net sell-off of about $20 billion over two weeks, reaching an extreme level; the Nasdaq $QQQ 100 dropped 5.5% last week, marking its largest weekly decline since April 2025. The market is starting to pour cold water on the AI boom: with so much money poured in, when will it actually pay off?
The pressure isn't just from valuations. JPMorgan estimates that the five major US cloud service providers will have capital expenditures of $697 billion in 2026, with AI infrastructure increasingly reliant on external financing. Rising financing costs and slow project repayments mean that if GPU operators face cash flow issues, the pressure could cascade up the financing chain.
However, selling $20 billion doesn't mean AI demand has collapsed, nor does it imply that all tech companies are unworthy of investment. The upcoming earnings reports from Google, Microsoft, and Amazon will be the real test: capital expenditures can continue to rise, but revenue and cash flow must keep pace. If performance can't support the investment, the sell-off may not be over; if profits materialize and credit spreads stabilize, this round of adjustment will look more like position clearing rather than an AI bubble burst.October 28 is not an earnings report day; it is a mandatory step: SK Hynix pushes the queen of fourth-generation high-bandwidth memory to the center line, forcing a complete reevaluation of the entire memory cycle's valuation. True strategists first look at the pawn chain, not the pile of pieces—the Q3 figures are just the score sheet, while the mass production rhythm of fourth-generation high-bandwidth memory forms the skeleton of the game.
The expansion of AI server demand is like the opponent pushing the central pawn right in front of us. If Hynix can simultaneously control shipments, pricing, and profitability, that is true piece coordination: shipments represent activity, pricing is the central square, and profit margin is the material advantage. Only increasing volume without protecting price is like sacrificing pawns without opening lines; only protecting price without increasing volume is like stacking wings but leaving the rear flank exposed. The market watches whether quarterly profits can break records again; I watch what those records are exchanged for—is it the promotion of pawns along the path, or trading future two moves for one square now.
The mass production advancement of fourth-generation high-bandwidth memory resembles a breakthrough on the rear wing. If the breakthrough succeeds, the minor pieces remain active; if it fails, weak pawns are exposed, and inventory and capital expenditures will counterattack from both wings. Customer certification is the path pawn, yield rate is the bishop’s diagonal, and contract price is the rook’s open line; if any link is blocked, profit records are just a beautiful illusion. Even strong AI demand cannot replace piece coordination; strong demand only grants initiative, it cannot finish the endgame for you.
In my view, position management is not just adding or subtracting numbers, but piece deployment: first see if the center can be held, then decide whether to press the rook on the seventh rank. Rushing before the earnings report is like an unprotected general—loud but opening the king’s gate. True positioning is calculating the opponent’s responses before the news lands: if volume increases and price holds, the endgame has many pawns; if profits rely on price hikes, the endgame mostly has mismatched bishops, with harmony hidden inside. The climb of fourth-generation high-bandwidth memory takes two or three moves to reveal the true situation; a single quarter’s record is just a capture, not a checkmate.
Looking at that US stock token, it is not on the same color square as the memory cycle: one feeds on risk appetite, the other on capacity and price. But mismatched bishops in the endgame will also be forced to exchange pieces. Record performance may promote sentiment; if shipments increase but pricing fails, the linked token will be checkmated first, then the valuation will follow to patch the leak. The worst in the midgame is shouting attack while leaving the king in the center.
My judgment is simple: this is not a performance reading test, it is forcing the position. Whoever mistakes the mass production rhythm for emotional noise is handing the rear wing to the opponent’s bishop in the midgame. #SKhynixQ3HBM4Earnings ETH bulls are getting worn down: Is the 81.58 million U unrealized loss just the beginning?
In this ETH downturn, the hardest hit are not the newcomers but the old bulls who bought above 2890 and have been holding on stubbornly until now. The unrealized loss on the books is about 81.58 million U, equivalent to a quarter of the current position already wiped out. This is not an ordinary pullback; it's a real bleeding.
More importantly, these positions haven't been massively liquidated yet, which means either the leverage is low and they're enduring the pain, or they're continuously adding margin to stay alive. But every time the price dips further, the hole to fill gets bigger; once someone can't add margin, forced liquidation will trigger passive sell-offs. These stubborn long positions on the market are essentially a queue waiting to trigger a chain reaction.
On the other hand, short positions mostly have costs near the current price, so their pressure is much lighter and they can act proactively. The bulls have already lost a quarter of their principal; if the price gets pushed down further, stop-loss and liquidation orders could easily cause a stampede. Buying longs now is like carrying the burden of trapped holders; shorting along the trend actually fits the current game better.
In short: ETH bulls' wounds are still widening, so don't rush to be a hero. Until the market shows signs of a bottom, going with the trend and shorting is more comfortable than trying to catch the bottom.
This is market observation only and does not constitute investment advice. $BTC $ETH Just after finishing lunch around 1 PM, you open the market screen and feel like BTC is now oscillating up and down, seemingly stabilizing, and your hands itch to jump in and buy the dip? Don’t rush to act yet!
Look at the green bars for $BTC earlier on the chart: there’s indeed a net inflow of fifty to sixty million in the 1-hour and 2-hour windows. Retail investors think the opportunity has arrived and rush in hard, but if you shift your view to the right and check the long-term data, the 30-day contract net outflow is as high as 7.682 billion, and spot has also seen an outflow of 1.237 billion. The short-term inflows are all designed to lure retail investors to take the bags; big money started a frantic retreat a month ago.
Now look at $ETH — this data is even more painful! In the short term, just over 80 million flowed in within 1 hour, but over 30 days, contract funds have fled 8.595 billion, and spot outflows reached 3.784 billion. The capital loss in ETH is even more severe than BTC. Every short-term rebound is providing liquidity for big players to unload.
Finally, $SOL is somewhat more resistant to decline, but even its 30-day contracts have seen nearly 2 billion outflow. The overall trend remains outflow.
Summary: Don’t be fooled by the green bars in just a few minutes; this is called giving you a little sweetness in the short term while hollowing out your principal in the long term. Big money is cashing out crazily on the rebounds. Without real money propping it up, what will drive the price up? I firmly stay out of the market and watch the show.
#BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ A building whose foundation piles haven't even been completed yet has already fully booked entire floors for 2028. What Seattle is presenting is not a performance forecast but a construction progress schedule marked with concrete grades.
Let's start with the foundation. Computing capacity for 2026 is sold out, 2027 is basically fully booked, and more than half of 2028 is locked in—there's only one explanation in real estate development: this is not a demand forecast, it's a presale of capacity. Pre-selling units three years ahead means the blueprints have been worn out from constant reference. Anyone who has built supertall buildings knows that the presale rate never equals the delivery rate; it only determines whether you can secure the next development loan.
The real bearing point lies in the core tube. Computing power is the foundation and vertical transportation, while AI inference demand is the floor load stacked layer by layer above. The current problem is that the climbing formwork speed of the core tube can't keep up with the floor slab pouring speed. Sold out in 2026 means the existing load-bearing walls have reached the design load limit and new structures must be erected immediately; and from rebar tying, formwork, pouring, curing to inspection, there is an uncompressible physical cycle. Capital expenditure is concrete—once poured, it solidifies in place and cannot be undone.
Thus, the free cash flow issue shifts from a financial item to a structural mechanics problem. Concrete curing periods prevent formwork removal. Every penny spent on expanding capacity is locked in the formwork and cannot be released. Those staring at the blueprints only calculate floor area ratio, not curing costs; they count the increasing number of floors, but no one asks—has the wind resistance level been rechecked?
What I really care about is prestressing. To extend the span to 2028, the steel strands have been tensioned to the design limit. Short-term stiffness has indeed increased, and the facade looks polished; but long-term creep and microcracks only gradually appear after the structure is topped out. If even a 2% settlement occurs on the demand side, the entire building will settle unevenly. The biggest fear for supertall buildings has never been wind, but the foundation moving first.
As for the linked asset, it is the curtain wall hanging on the main facade. Curtain walls always feel wind loads before the main structure; when the structure sways, the curtain wall reacts first. But the noise from the curtain wall never indicates whether the structure is good or bad, only that the wind has arrived.
The 2028 floors have already been sold, but the seismic fortification intensity on those blueprints still hasn't been signed off. #amazonq3awsoutlookThe "False Boom" of L1: Behind High TPS, Who Is Gaming Incentives to Fake Orders?
A common market misconception: as long as a public chain has high TPS, active transactions, and many ecosystem projects, its native token will definitely rise. But beneath the data facade, many high-frequency interactions are actually "witch attacks" and "token incentives" creating fake demand.
$NEAR
Cross-chain intended trading volume appears huge, but its monthly inflation issuance (about $13 million) is still more than 6 times the buyback scale. Moreover, the repurchased tokens enter "permanent capital instruments" without being burned, causing net supply to continuously expand. Many of the so-called high-frequency interactions are driven by ecosystem incentives, while real net retained income remains relatively small.
$ARB
TVL has long topped the charts, but the large amount of on-chain fee income flows entirely into the DAO treasury, and the token currently serves purely as a governance symbol. Once airdrops and ecosystem incentives stop, real retail interaction frequency often experiences a cliff-like drop, with massive unlocks hanging like a sword overhead.
$RAY
High-frequency trading on the Solana chain is not entirely fake orders; genuine Meme enthusiasm and liquidity demand bring abundant fees. Raydium uses 12% of daily fees to buy real assets on the secondary market (though retained in the treasury and not burned), at least providing substantial buy-side support.
Conclusion:
TPS without real external demand support is just server idling. When looking at public chains and trading hubs, don’t be fooled by surface data and interaction counts. 目前，比特币 $BTC 在79,400至80,500美元之间窄幅震荡，以太坊 $ETH 则在2,295至2,335美元之间谨慎波动。 表面上看，市场似乎进入了平静期，但数据背后，一场多空力量的较量正在展开：一部分交易者开始防范下跌风险，另一部分交易者仍然坚信反弹即将到来。 这就像一场尚未结束的国际象棋比赛，每一方都在等待对手犯错，而一次关键的突破或跌破，都可能改变整个市场的局势。 一、巨鲸正在行动，但市场并没有形成统一方向 数据显示，40个新钱包提取了9,458枚BTC，价值约7.71亿美元。 这一行为可能意味着资产积累，也可能只是钱包之间的转移。因此，仅凭这组数据，还不能确定这些比特币全部来自新的买入行为，更不能直接认定机构或巨鲸已经全面看涨。 与此同时，一位大型交易者正面临不小的压力，其多头仓位规模约为4亿美元，ETH仓位的清算价格为2,181美元。 昨夜，ETH最低跌至2,282美元，距离该清算价格还有101美元。这意味着，如果价格继续下跌，该仓位可能面临更大的风险，追加保证金或主动降低仓位的重要性也会随之上升。 另一个值得关注的数据是，大户多空比为0.77。按照该指标的常见解释FOMC, PCE, $11 billion options settlement
$BTC, $ETH tug-of-war repeats, three events this week will concentrate pricing on the short-term direction
October 29 FOMC decision and press conference
The Federal Reserve is very likely to maintain 3.75%—4.00% unchanged, with CME pricing the probability of no change at about 91%. The real trading variable is not "whether to hike or not," but the chairman's wording on the December path—the market has priced in nearly an 80% chance of a rate hike in December, and any hawkish confirmation will push up real rates and suppress risk assets. Wintermute warns that the current implied volatility is low, and the market may be underestimating the volatility risk around the decision
October 29 PCE + Q3 GDP
September PCE is the inflation indicator the Fed truly anchors on, released the day after the FOMC meeting. If core PCE continues the previous cooling trend of 3.0%, it is slightly favorable for BTC; if it remains sticky and exceeds expectations again, the "higher for longer" narrative will directly suppress rebound space
October 30 about $11 billion BTC options monthly settlement
Deribit's monthly options nominal expiration scale is about $10.97 billion, with call contracts about twice the number of puts. But nominal scale does not equal directional signal—the market makers' hedging adjustments before and after expiration often amplify short-term volatility, with the $83,000—$85,000 range as the short-term battleground
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 October 26, 2026 · Monday Fourth Quarter · Issue 110 Aspirin · Cycle Analysis from a Data Scientist's Perspective At 8 a.m. this morning, BTC's second weekly candle closed below 83,000. My judgment is clear: this breakout is a false breakout, and there will be one last drop in Q4. BTC's low point will appear around December 10, near 60,000, just before or after the Federal Reserve's rate decision; gold will bottom and rebound before BTC, while silver is the weakest. Below is the full script, timeline, and key levels. 01｜Why is the false breakout confirmed? 83,000 is the May high. One weekly candle closing below this can be considered a pullback; two consecutive ones confirm falsification. The current price is about 80,000, and the daily chart has also broken below the 50-day moving average (around 81,700). Historically, several false breakouts cleared quickly. In 2015 and 2020, it took only two to three weeks from the second weekly candle break to the bottom. So the upcoming move will not be a slow decline but a concentrated, rapid drop. Another signal: Nasdaq, S&P, Dow Jones, ETH, and altcoin total market cap have all retested the bull market support zone; BTC is the last one not yet tested. I don't think it will be an exception. 02｜Macro is pushing in the same direction The Federal Reserve will hold steady this week, with the market pricing in about 94%, so the real focus is the wording about December in the statement. If the September PCE is hotter than expected, the market will confirm: there will be another rate hike in December. The 10-year US Treasury yield is now about 4.99%; I believe it will return to 5.3% then; Brent crude oil original韩媒今天爆出，公司打算派发约16万亿韩元的特别股息，钱来自卖掉铠侠股权的收益，预计周三跟着Q3财报一起官宣。 公司那边回应说方案还在讨论，没最后拍板。$SKHYNIX $BTC $ETH 但市场已经先嗨起来了。再加上Solidigm IPO暂缓、AI存储需求持续火爆，这轮预期确实够猛。 几个关键数据摆在这儿： - Q3营业利润市场预期约77万亿韩元，同比暴增近5倍，大概率创历史新高 - 16万亿韩元特别股息相当于常规年度股息的15倍以上 - 当前市盈率仅约3倍，外资持股比例跌到金融危机以来最低 - 股价从6月高点已经腰斩，估值确实杀到了地板上 所以木头姐明确看涨，目标1050。逻辑很直接：业绩炸裂、股东回报超预期、估值便宜到离谱，三重利好叠加。 不过也得留个心眼，周三财报才是真正见真章的时候。如果特别股息金额不及预期，或者HBM4出货指引偏保守，短线情绪可能会反噬。但中长期看，AI存储这条主线没变，海力士作为HBM龙头的地位也没动摇。 今晚直播可以重点聊聊这个，存储板块最近跌得太狠，反弹动能正在蓄积。#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？"A 2.34% buffer against the daily fluctuations of $PUMP — this is the most dangerous aspect of this position."
PUMP 50x leverage, 0.004162→0.004262, +120.13%. Conversely: if it falls back just 2.34%, that 120% gain disappears entirely.
What does 2.34% mean on PUMP? A normal wick, or even a large sell order on the order book. In other words, this position doesn’t require any negative news, trend reversal, or even intentional shorting — a purely technical pullback is enough to wipe it out.
50x leverage magnifies 2.4% into 120%, and likewise magnifies 2.34% into zero. It gives you the fastest profits, but also the shortest survival time.
The market itself is holding up: price is running high. But the key support below isn’t far away.
So I never decide to close based on "how much profit" I’ve made, only on how far it is from the cost line. 2.34% is too close.
The only move: push to break even, at worst lock in zero, and don’t increase exposure. $BTC $ETH #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ 📊 $BTC current price $79,730, WAIT, I am not adding to my position. I hold long positions with an average price of $83,030.
The position volume rose 4.0% in 24 hours, price dropped 1.13% in 24 hours, indicating shorts are adding positions, short-term risk leans downward.
A) If it breaks below the ascending trendline at $79,608 (still pushing up), the next level is $79,378. Within 48 hours, $79,740–$79,980 saw $5.72 million liquidated, 69% of which were longs, with thin buy orders below. Holding above $80,768 invalidates this.
B) The $80,768 level has been tested 7 times on the upside, pulled back 6 times, and broken through once. Holding above it targets $81,009; breaking below $79,608 invalidates this.
If it rebounds near the cost price of $83,030, I will first reduce half of my long positions and move the stop loss to the cost price.
Do you think the $79,608 line can hold? #OKXTraderVoices SanDisk Earnings Test: 76% Betting on Beat, Beware of a Market Crash After Good News Is Fully Priced In!
SanDisk ($SNDK) will report after the U.S. market close on October 29. According to prediction markets, 76% of funds are betting its earnings will beat expectations.
On the surface, the logic is sound: AI data center demand is expanding, NAND flash prices are rising, and the company’s own revenue guidance is $10.3 to $10.8 billion. But I have to pour cold water on this — a 76% betting ratio means expectations are maxed out; this hand is almost an open card. At this point, the market isn’t really looking at how much was sold last quarter, but whether next quarter’s guidance can continue to blow out.
Haven’t we had enough bloody lessons from recent tech earnings seasons? Previously, Western Digital beat expectations and had good guidance, yet its stock price still fell. If SanDisk’s guidance even slightly hints at peak profit margins or a slowdown in NAND price increases, that 76% of funds will quickly turn into the main sellers, and a stampede could happen at any time.
Semiconductors are the global tech stock barometer; this earnings report will directly impact our broader market. If the report beats expectations and the market can withstand selling pressure and move up, tech stock sentiment will stabilize, and BTC can breathe easier. But if earnings explode yet the stock price is slammed, it means Wall Street’s valuation logic for AI hardware has flipped, and BTC will definitely be drained of liquidity with extremely heavy selling pressure above.
Don’t just focus on beating expectations; beware of the chain reaction of good news being fully priced in! $SNDK $BTC
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Before the Super Week, three capital statements
$ETH: The foundation-related wallet sold 2,785 coins within 1 hour at $2,304 each, exchanging for USDS; over 7,000 coins transferred out cumulatively in two weeks. On the same day, about 170,000 ETH left exchanges, staking volume rose above 43.7 million coins, accounting for over 35% of supply. ETH spot ETFs saw a net outflow of over $1 billion in October.
$BTC: Around $80,000, weekend low at 79,398. ETF weekly net inflow was $301 million, but October still had a net outflow of $314 million, with a combined loss of $773 million last Thursday and Friday. On-chain, 40 new wallets withdrew 9,458 BTC from market makers, about $770 million; whale holdings rose to 3.03 million coins, with the 30-day accumulation speed the fastest since February this year.
$SOL: Around $99.9, repeatedly contesting $100. On October 21, the Alpenglow upgrade went live, reducing finality from 12.8 seconds to 150 milliseconds; spot ETFs had net outflows for 11 consecutive trading days, with about $60 million redeemed in October. RWA tokenized funds had a weekly inflow of $453.5 million, accounting for 73% of the top ten blockchains' total inflows.
On the macro side, September core PCE expected at 3.1%, Q3 GDP expected at 3.1%, 90% probability FOMC holds steady, 68.9% probability of rate hike in December. All three prices are stuck at critical levels, with chips changing holders, addresses, and narratives.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Срез: 24-26 октября 2026 года. Метрики разных агрегаторов отличаются, поэтому рядом с цифрами указываю период и источник. Uniswap ($UNI ) один из старейших и самых заметных протоколов децентрализованной торговли. Он построен на автоматизированном маркет-мейкере (AMM): вместо книги ордеров пользователи торгуют против пулов ликвидности. Главный конфликт проекта: продукт востребован, а связь между этим успехом и токеном UNI остаётся непрямой. Токен нужен для управления, но не для обычного использов$XLM
Weaker than XRP, why can't the payment sector have a unified valuation?
In this morning's spot snapshot, XLM's 24-hour price change was -2.78%, ranging from 0.16681 to 0.17248 USDT.
XRP fell 1.46% on the same basis, with XLM experiencing a larger pullback, indicating that similar use cases cannot eliminate differences in supply and liquidity. Industry enthusiasm does not guarantee that each generation of tokens will simultaneously gain demand.
If the relative gap continues to widen, the assumption of a catch-up rally should be lowered; if actual usage increases and the relative price stops falling, then the assessment of recovery should be raised again. #中东原油运输恢复，油价为何仍居高位？ Because there are still uncertainties #CerebrasQ3AIChipOutlook
Q2 BEAT: Core $210M vs $191M +103% YoY, GAAP $180M +70%. But stock -14% after — GAAP loss $450M vs $350M est, OpEx $503M vs $89M YoY (SBC $377M). Q1 also beat $193M vs $174M.
Why YES:
WSE-3 = 58x NVDA B200 wafer = fastest inference. Cloud +281% to $126M. OpenAI $20B 750MW deal + Altman "close partner". Core guide $880-890M FY (was $855M). Backlog $25.4B RPO, cash $8.6B. EPS loss est improved -$0.32→-$
Call: 75% REV BEAT but selloff risk — needs core >$220M + GM >40% The Federal Reserve will decide the day after tomorrow whether to raise interest rates.
But the inflation data they are going to look at this time,
one-third of it was not collected.
Last month, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics was supposed to collect prices for a batch of goods and services. They were supposed to collect 100 items but only got 66.
More than 30% missing.
What about the missing part? They estimate it.
They use prices of similar goods,
use prices from nearby regions to fill in.
So that year-over-year 3.7% inflation figure,
some of it is estimated.
Is it accurate?
The Bureau of Labor Statistics itself doesn’t dare to guarantee,
only said:
There is no evidence of overestimation, nor evidence of underestimation.
But the Fed can’t wait, and won’t wait.
On the 28th, they will announce as scheduled.
The market is already betting: the probability of a rate hike in December is close to 80%.
Bitcoin is now at $80,185, right above 80,000.
Why is this line critical?
Two things happen to converge here:
The average cost of ETF buyers is 81,300.
The 50-day moving average is also here.
A bunch of people’s costs are all piled up at this level.
Last time CPI was released, Bitcoin dropped from 83,800 to below 82,000 within a few hours.
My attitude:
To put it simply:
If inflation is high, you know how to hedge.
If the numbers are inaccurate, you don’t even know where to hedge.
80,000, see you on the 28th. Expected Value Hunter | Today's Expected Value October 26, 2026 80,000, touched again. On Monday during the Asian session, BTC dipped to a low of 79,330, approaching the lowest level since mid-September. Then it bounced back again to 80,320, just like it has done every time in the past nine days. If you opened the market today and saw the 80,000 figure tested countless times, you probably wouldn't feel much anymore. It's not numbness, it's fatigue. Dip down, pull back, dip down, pull back. Every time it feels like a direction is about to be chosen, but every time it isn't. But today, one thing is different from the past few days: the two groups driving this market are moving in opposite directions. First, let's look at the data on Binance. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost released a flow report today, separating retail investors and whales. Over the past 30 days, the amount of BTC transferred by retail investors to Binance rose from $5.5 billion to $10.75 billion, nearly doubling and hitting about a six-month high. Transferring coins to exchanges is usually not a buy signal. Darkfost's judgment is straightforward: retail investors are treating this round of rebound as an "exit window," closing positions at prices they find more acceptable to relieve previously accumulated psychological pressure. Meanwhile, whale deposits to Binance dropped from $5.9 billion at the end of August to $3.8 billion, a decline of about 36%, continuing a nearly two-month downward trend. Darkfost's conclusion is: no signs yet ofFinally seeing hope again! The market turnaround might really be coming! 🌈
The current market is becoming increasingly clear: the linkage between crude oil prices, global stock markets, and cryptocurrencies is strengthening.
🛢️ Oil prices falling gives risk assets a chance to breathe.
On October 26, international oil prices retreated from recent highs, and the market is also watching whether US-Iran diplomatic talks can make progress. However, shipping security in the Strait of Hormuz remains uncertain, oil prices are still high, and the subsequent trend depends on how the situation develops. Meanwhile, global stock markets have slightly rebounded, and market risk appetite has improved.
For the crypto market, if oil prices can continue to decline, easing inflationary pressure and reducing concerns about further interest rate hikes, then risk assets like BTC, ETH have a chance to perform better.
Of course, a drop in oil prices does not mean a bull market will start immediately; next, we need to watch capital flows, trading volume, and whether key price levels cooperate.
ꉂ(ˊᗜˋ*)
₿ $BTC Bitcoin
BTC has experienced a round of correction recently, and the market is currently searching for a new direction. The fall in oil prices does help ease macro pressure, but for Bitcoin to truly strengthen, continuous capital inflow and confirmation of price structure are still needed. £22 billion on-chain? Actually only £50 million
On October 26, UK asset management giant Aviva launched tokenized shares of a pound liquidity fund on XRPL.
The parent fund is about £22 billion, but the actual tokenized initial investment is only £50 million — a 44 times difference.
Aviva uses a "digital twin" structure: only share rights are recorded on-chain, while the underlying holdings, custody, risk control, and regulation all remain in the original system, with assets still at BNY.
It's like our factory didn't change equipment or processes, just added an electronic certificate channel to existing goods: production capacity and yield remain unchanged, what changes is whether the goods can be accepted by the new system.
1. The first step of tokenization is money market funds, not stocks or real estate. Shares are already cash equivalents, and after tokenization they can be settled and used as collateral.
2. "On-chain" is overused. What changes are the issuance, recording, and transfer steps, not moving the asset itself onto the chain.
For friends in finance, how do you judge if a tokenization project is "truly implemented" or just "announced"? What indicators do you look at?10月26日，美国货币监理署（OCC）做了一件标志性的事：公开鼓励社区银行考虑申请成为支付稳定币发行商，并指向GENIUS法案的许可框架。对于一家受保险的国民银行，路径是通过子公司申请，而非银行本体直接发行。距离2027年1月18日“无牌不得发行”的截止日，还剩不到三个月。 但戏剧性的一幕是：监管在鼓励银行入场，银行却在担心被稳定币掏空。 美国银行CEO Brian Moynihan此前警告，在某些监管情景下，高达6万亿美元、约占美国商业银行存款30%至35%的资金，可能流向稳定币。美国独立社区银行家协会（ICBA）的测算更具体：若支付型稳定币广泛普及，未来社区银行的贷款规模可能至少减少8500亿美元。 矛盾的焦点在“收益”。OCC的最终规则保留了禁止发行方直接付息的核心禁令，但删除了草案中“推定第三方奖励安排非法”的条款，改为逐案判断。银行体系担心的是：即便发行方不直接付息，平台和第三方的奖励计划依然可以把存款从社区银行抽走。美国银行家协会已迅速对规则提出批评。 这不是“利好落地”，而是一场存款争夺战的开端。 OCC的鼓励姿态，本质上是承认稳定币已成为美国"Trading volume 49.2 billion, market cap 2.68 trillion"
Today's overall market numbers are a bit strange.
Total market cap is 2.68 trillion USD, 24-hour spot trading volume is 49.27 billion USD. Calculating turnover rate: 1.84%. Bitcoin trading volume is 16.13 billion, accounting for one-third.
This ratio is relatively low. The normal spot turnover rate in the crypto market is between 3% and 5%, so 1.84% indicates almost no one was trading today.
What’s even stranger is the price reaction. With such low trading volume, the market cap still dropped just over 4%. Among the top 30, 4 rose and 25 fell; SUI fell 3.46%, XMR fell 3.2%, ADA fell 2.91%; only ENA rose 6.43%, the strongest in the market.
On one hand, extremely low trading volume; on the other, a significant drop — these two together have only one explanation: marginal funds are withdrawing, not circulating existing holdings.
The consequences of these two situations are completely different. Circulating holdings means some are selling and some are buying; prices fall but chips don’t disappear. Marginal withdrawal means both buy and sell orders thin out, so prices can be moved with very little money. Today's 4% drop may have used only one-third of the usual funds.
The most dangerous aspect of this structure can be seen in the options market on October 30. That day, 140,844 BTC expired, nominally about 10 billion USD, with the biggest pain point at 78,000. When market depth thins, market makers’ hedging positions are amplified because the same hedge volume causes greater price impact in a thin order book.
And these three days are fully packed: October 28 interest rate decision (market pricing for rate hike probability dropped from 27% to below 15%), October 29 Q3 GDP and PCE, October 30 options settlement.
In other words: the market now is like a spring compressed to the limit, not because of bullish or bearish sentiment, but because no one wants to bet before the events unfold. Low turnover means collective wait-and-see; waiting means reactions will be more concentrated and intense when events land.
Discussion: Does low turnover mean "no one wants to trade" or "no one dares to trade"?
I think it’s the latter, and this difference determines next week’s direction. The former is indifference, prices will slowly drift down; the latter is tension, prices will jump as soon as events happen. Today’s funding rate is still +0.0054%/8h, longs are still paying — someone is waiting, and paying to wait.
Poll: Among the three major events in three days, which do you think is most likely to trigger volatility — A. October 28 interest rate decision; B. October 29 PCE; C. October 30 settlement; D. None, continue grinding.
I choose B. The rate decision is basically priced in, settlement is technical, only PCE is truly unknown.
Not investment advice, risk on yourself. #MarketAnalysis $BTC#RocketLabQ3Neutron
Why YES on Rev:
13/19 beats (68%). Electron 17 contracts Q3, >20 launches yr. SpaceX Q3 +161% $14.6B lifted space. Space Systems mix.
Why NO on Neutron:
First launch slip 2026→2027 — tank redesign, carbon fiber defect. Stock -28% 1M, -33% 6M, $53 off $151 high. Iridium $5.9B deal
Valuation: $31B mcap, P/E N/A, beta 3.19, EPS -$0.37. Avg PT $122 = 130% upside. Cantor Buy.
Call: 75% REV BEAT, 50% EPS — needs >$265M + backlog >$2.5B + Neutron pad Q4 timeline to reclaim $65.#SpaceX业绩大增，与特斯拉合并能否推进？
Musk announced that SpaceX completed $40 billion off-balance-sheet debt financing to buy GPUs, but the pricing has not yet been agreed upon. More awkwardly, xAI's similar operation last year was deemed "invalid" by accountants, and about $13 billion of debt was ultimately brought back on the balance sheet.
AI revenue is indeed exploding: Q3 Super Intelligence segment revenue reached $7.56 billion, a year-over-year increase of 830%, profitable for the first time, already surpassing Starlink. But the faster the computing power expands, the more it relies on this off-balance-sheet structure to maintain its rating.
The problem is that the market is precisely watching whether this money can truly be "off the books." The revenue explosion and financing fragility are currently two sides of the same coin.Core Risk Warnings
1. A volatility compression to 6% has historically ended in explosive moves: a 9-day consolidation box, with the 30-day price spread shrinking from 13% to 6%. Once the direction is chosen, the magnitude could far exceed the $2,100 implied by the current ATR. Avoid heavy directional bets at the end of the compression.
2. 82,700 is the "invalid line" for the medium-term bearish pattern: until the daily close breaks above this area, the objective signal is bearish and range-bound, not a bull market trend. All short-term moving averages are above the price, which is a technical fact that cannot be ignored.
3. ETF "IBIT unipolar inflow" is fragile support: 566 million this week. If IBIT inflows slow or reverse, net inflows across the market will quickly turn negative. The recent 774 million outflow over the past two days has already demonstrated this fragility.
4. The FOMC (10/27–28) is the biggest variable within 48 hours: a pause in October is priced in, but the real risk lies in any hawkish hints from Waller regarding December. If December rate hike expectations strengthen, the lower boundary of the $79,200 box will face a severe test.
5. The "chaotic combination" of $117 oil prices + falling US Treasury yields: the market is pricing in an AI recession rather than oil-driven inflation. Bitcoin has no clear beneficiary path in this combination—oil price gains do not transmit, while weakness in tech stocks drags it down.
6. Divergence between taker sell volume at 0.67 and 67% net long accounts: positions are bullish but actions are selling. If price is resisted near $82,300, passive long covering may turn into selling pressure. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Order placing is exhausting! $247 rolled to $936 in 15 minutes, this bot really knows how to wait 😂
There is a bot specifically trading Bitcoin 15-minute up/down markets. Since last December, it has run about 169,700 markets and accumulated roughly $354,200 in purchases. It doesn't guess price direction; it places buy orders at every cent price point, waiting for people to panic sell recklessly.
Today there was an even crazier window. Someone smashed about $10,000 on a buy order, and the price instantly dropped from around 65 cents to 5 cents. The bot's buy orders were all filled, costing about $247, and settled in 15 minutes for about $936, nearly 3.78 times the cost. Out of 313 days, 213 were profitable, and in the last 30 days it quietly gained about $6,950.
Retail traders rush during those 15 minutes, but the bot waits for your slip-ups. The fastest in this game is often the one with programmed orders.
Newbies are advised to watch more and trade less; when buying coins, only buy $BTC $MSTR MicroStrategy has paused buying coins! Instead, it spent $205 million to repurchase preferred shares. Is the market panicking?
Brothers, MicroStrategy's recent moves are worth paying attention to. Logically, MicroStrategy should continue increasing its $BTC holdings, but this time the capital allocation has changed: it spent $205 million repurchasing its own STRC preferred shares, while only $22 million was spent buying BTC.
The money spent hasn't decreased, but the focus has shifted!
Don't rush to say BTC is too expensive to buy; the key might be the cost of capital. STRC preferred shares have an annual dividend of about 12%, and continuous financing means bearing significant dividend expenses. Repurchasing preferred shares may help control future capital costs and cash flow pressure.
This indicates that MicroStrategy's capital arrangement deserves a fresh look, but we can't conclude that Saylor has completely changed the strategy just because of buying less BTC for a week.
Looking at market performance, BTC has fallen below around $80,000, the FOMC meeting is approaching, risk-off sentiment is rising, and MSTR's stock price is also under pressure.
The real question is: if BTC continues to weaken and MicroStrategy slows its buying pace, can MSTR's valuation premium hold?
Next, focus on three signals: whether BTC can stabilize, whether MicroStrategy will continue buying coins, and the financing and repurchase arrangements of STRC.
Brothers, do you think this is MicroStrategy proactively adjusting its capital structure, or is market pressure starting to show? #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ $ETH #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？
$xMETA Here's a drama from last night. The earnings report came out, revenue blew past expectations, over 40 billion USD, profits steady like an old workhorse. But AI is a bottomless pit that burns money, so they immediately decided to raise 35 billion USD.
Investors calculated: more shares issued, dilution, pre-market sell-off, stock dropped over 4%. Almost losing their minds.
Then a divine reversal happened. Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom—three chip giants—stepped up and said they would put 5 billion USD into buying its stock. Pre-market, the drop of over 4% was pulled up to a 1.12% gain.
My takeaway: the money shortage is fake, but the ranking is real. Among this huge financing, the three hardware giants willing to pay 5 billion to buy in is basically telling you—on the AI chain, no one is helping for free. Its stock price is tied to the crypto nerve; when one side moves, the stocks and tokens on the other side also get unsettled. $xMETA #SoftBankQ2AIReturns
AI goldmine — OpenAI $2.15T gain Q2, $79.6B FV vs $34.6B cost = $45B unrealized. Nvidia exit 32.1M shares $5.83B Oct, Arm + telecom stable. Vision Fund + OpenAI $500B val (was $300B Mar). Final $10B tranche done Oct 1 → total $64.6B = 13% OpenAI.
Valuation: $15.4, $169B mcap, P/E 5.2x, 78% run Sep Q (+best since 2005), now -25% off high. ROE 26%, margin 62%. Debt ¥5T, EUR 405M note redeemed.
Call: 90% BEAT needs >¥3T profit on OpenAI markup + no impairment to hit ¥7,000.Bitcoin will either plunge or surge significantly
After the past two midterm elections, BTC experienced sharp declines:
▪️In the post-election phase of 2018, BTC's maximum drawdown reached -50%
▪️In the post-election phase of 2022, BTC's maximum drawdown reached -25%
The next midterm election is on November 3.
History does not simply repeat itself, but both post-election periods shared the commonality of deep corrections.
Do you think the market will replay this historical scenario after this election?
❗This is only a summary of public historical data and does not constitute any trading advice $ETH $ZEC $SOL Is $BTC Bitcoin saved? Oil prices have started to fall, is a rebound coming? Let's talk about the current trading opportunities.
1. Have you noticed that to trade crypto well, you have to be like a eunuch! Constantly pondering the emperor's will, guessing the next move of King Trump.
2. Over the weekend, US crude oil CL soared to 105, reaching a price Trump couldn't tolerate, so he immediately crashed the market, saying he wouldn't attack Iran today. Oil prices plummeted 5%, and both the crypto market and US stocks finally began to recover.
3. So what will Bitcoin do next? Actually, from Trump's actions above, we already have a conclusion. Trump doesn't ignore the market; if it falls too much, he will back down or soften his stance. So I believe the downside risk is relatively limited, and since there has already been a significant pullback recently, buying on dips can be considered. Those who have bottomed out can wait patiently.
4. I don't know if you've noticed, but recently there have been so many negative factors in the market—US-Iran, Saudi Arabia, Yemen—so many bad news, yet Bitcoin hasn't dropped much. It was around 82,000 before, now 80,000, only about a 2% drop, which is actually a relatively strong signal, at least compared to the US stock market.
5. So now the market is such that despite negative news, it doesn't fall much, or it falls and then rebounds. And what if there is good news later? Just think about it, something big will come! Besides the US-Iran conflict, there might also be positive inflation data. We just need to wait patiently now and pay attention to the strong support around 78,200. Buy when it reaches that level, if not, then forget it.Binance launched 4 TradeFi perpetual contracts all priced in USDT today, with liquidation handled on Binance RCH, and the launch times staggered by 5 minutes each.
EIDOUSDT at 17:00, EQTUSDT at 17:05, STMUSDT at 17:10, ABBVUSDT at 17:15. EIDO and EQT track US and European stock ETFs, STM is STMicroelectronics, ABBV is AbbVie; all four contracts are well-established traditional assets.
This pace is worth noting. Previously, launching a new product required the platform to warm up for several days, but now 4 are queued within 15 minutes, showing the variety pool is expanding faster than user education.
For contract traders, there are three practical impacts. First, liquidity is thinnest in the 15 minutes before opening, spreads and spike risks are high, so avoid rushing in immediately. Second, these assets don’t have the 7×24 sentiment of crypto markets; prices follow US and European trading hours, with possible no movement overnight and gaps at daytime open. Third, USDT pricing means no need to swap coins, but funding rates and margin rules must be reviewed carefully—don’t apply crypto parameters directly.
The platform bringing traditional finance into contracts is essentially competing for a bigger pool. The more varieties, the more stories to tell, but what really determines your profitability are the old questions: position size, leverage, and when not to enter.The biggest buyer didn't buy this week: Strategy spent $205 million elsewhere
The article at dawn said institutional buying couldn't keep up with mining, and by evening there was a ready-made footnote.
According to Monday's SEC filing, Strategy neither bought nor sold a single $BTC last week, nor did it touch the ATM issuance; it spent the entire $204.9 million on repurchasing its own preferred stock STRC, buying back 2.07 million shares in one week. This is the first time it paused after buying coins for four consecutive weeks — the amount spent on buying coins had shrunk from $140 million to below $30 million over the previous three weeks.
The accounting goes like this: since October, Strategy has spent about $664 million on STRC repurchases, only about $72.3 million on buying $BTC, acquiring 851 coins. Holdings remain at 848,517 coins, with an average price of $75,446, current price about $79,980 (Beijing time 22:13), still positive on paper.
Comparison group: in the same week, Strive made its largest coin purchase ever, over $510 million. One paused, one increased — there is significant internal disagreement among institutions about the 80,000 level.
There is a reason for the buyback: STRC once fell below $98 last Monday, under the $100 par value, only recovering above $99 on Friday. Whether to stabilize its own preferred stock first or continue to increase $BTC holdings, Saylor chose the former this week.#Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ Robinhood will report after the market closes on October 27. Honestly, market expectations for this earnings report are quite high. After all, Q2 numbers were outstanding: revenue surged 32% to 1.31 billion, and net inflows hit a new high of 22 billion USD. But with expectations set so high, Q3 is somewhat "riding a tiger".
The analysis shows two main points of contention: first, trading activity. Q3 saw a choppy market in both US stocks and crypto, so has retail investors' "gambling nature" been suppressed? Whether trading volume and commission income can sustain the baseline is a big test. Second, the growth of new business. Relying solely on the old core business is no longer enough; it depends on whether new products like derivatives and retirement accounts can actually monetize.
My personal view is that $HOOD is currently going through a "breaking out of the circle" growing pain phase. The inflow volume shows the user base is solid, but future revenue can't just rely on luck (dependence on trading volume). If this earnings report can prove that new business contributes substantially, then the stock price will have a new story to tell. #AAOIQ3800GOutlook
Guide $255-290M / $0.11-0.26 EPS. Q2 BEAT: $191.9M vs $190.5M, EPS $0.06 vs $0.01 (+0.22 YoY). 5th record Qtr.
Why YES:
800G transceiver ramp, 1.6T orders, TX fab expansion. Datacenter AI optics = Nvidia rack boom. Rev 5Qs up. Gross margin improving.
Valuation: $102, $5.7B mcap, 52W $18.5-$233.7, -30% off high, RSI 30 oversold, below 50/200 SMA ($106/$132). P/E -87x, beta 3.85.
Call: 70% BEAT — needs >$280M + EPS >$0.20 + 1.6T guide to reclaim $135. Miss <$250M = $85.$HYPE has a real trading ecosystem as support, but the recent decline indicates that sentiment remains cautious. It cannot be assumed to have bottomed out just based on the pullback; continue to observe platform revenue and capital flow to see if the price can stabilize again at 78-80 9%回调被说成"牛市中正常洗盘"，可衍生品那边真这么轻松吗？ 这波到底是在洗浮筹，还是在悄悄堆挤压的引线？ 昨晚盯盘时我第一反应不是价格，而是资金费率和持仓量那两条线：BTC 从高点回撤约 9%，情绪上大家开始等"更低的低点"，但永续端并没出现那种彻底去杠杆的干净感。有个知名交易者说这只是牛市里一次不错的调整，建议未来几周继续定投 BTC，中线逻辑没坏。我认同他"别被短期恐慌带偏"的部分，但衍生品视角下，我更在意这轮回撤里谁在扛单、谁在等更便宜的筹码。 现场信号大概是这样： - 价格回撤约 9%，属于牛市里常见的调整幅度，但市场普遍在等"极端低点"重演 - 上次那种插针式清算，是多条坏消息同时引爆的结果，眼下并没有同等密度的利空 - 四季度买家还在等更低的位置进场，现货买盘偏犹豫 - 永续持仓和资金费率没有出现彻底出清，说明杠杆还在场内 - ETH、ZEC 这类高 beta 标的跟跌，风险偏好短线偏防守 我的理解是：现在市场交易的其实是"回撤够不够深"这件事，而不是趋势有没有坏。中线逻辑还在，定投思路本身没错，但衍生品层面有个容易被忽略的点——如果杠杆没洗干净，价格再往下探一次，触发的