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SanDisk's drop this time is really quite severe, falling from 1908 to 1238, a 35% retracement, and after reading its financial report, I actually want to continue being bearish.
This company's performance is actually quite strong, with revenue growth of 175% in fiscal year 2026, and last quarter's revenue was 8.97 billion, a 51% quarter-over-quarter increase. But there's one number that has always bothered me: about two-thirds of last quarter's revenue growth came from price increases, and only one-third from volume.
I really don't dare to look at profits alone in the storage chip industry. When NAND prices rise, profits can multiply rapidly, but once supply and demand loosen, performance can reverse just as quickly.
Recently, news about technological progress from Chinese memory manufacturers hit the whole sector hard. Although ChangXin mainly makes DRAM, which is different from SanDisk's NAND, funds are clearly unwilling to differentiate so finely now.
What's more troublesome is the October 29 earnings report. SanDisk previously gave a gross margin guidance as high as 83%–85%, which is an exaggerated figure. The market is now worried about how many quarters this pace of profit-making can be sustained.
Mizuho gave a target price of 2050 just a few days ago, but the stock price still fell. Institutions may be bullish, but the market simply isn't buying it.
The daily MA5 is at 1316, MA20 at 1458, and MACD is still below zero. I'm not shorting for now; I'll wait to see if the rebound is resisted between 1300–1325 before considering it, with a stop loss at 1360, first watching 1216, and if broken, then 1150. Of course, if the earnings report continues to exceed expectations, the bears might get hammered. #AI需求支撑存储市场，芯片股行情反复 $BTC fell below 81,000 USDT in the early morning, currently around 80,990, slightly down for the day. What’s more noteworthy is that this is the first time since August that it closed below the 50-day moving average, ending a 66-day streak above the line. The fear and greed index remains steady at 51, a neutral state—no panic, but no one dares to rush in either.
The on-chain situation isn’t peaceful either. An institution investing in both Aave and Worldcoin transferred $33.18 million worth of ETH, WLD, and AAVE into multiple CEXs an hour ago, with WLD plunging nearly 14% in a single day. Such moves in a choppy market are hard not to raise suspicions.
On the macro front, the 10-year US Treasury yield is approaching 5%, oil prices remain high, and risk assets are generally under pressure. Ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting, bulls are unlikely to act recklessly. #中东原油供应风险再起，油价持续走强 ETF is buying, but the market is selling off. The ones dying are those who least want to get off.
In the past 24 hours, $466 million liquidations occurred, with $319 million from long positions, and 179,000 people were directly taken off the table. BTC fell below 81,000, and $ETH long liquidations accounted for as much as 82.6%. When you check the ETF data—IBIT had a weekly inflow of $565 million, and the overall weekly net inflow was still $300 million. Then you look at the candlesticks, one after another pressing down.
This sense of tearing apart is what you really need to understand today.
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Who is dumping? Not the ETF, but the leverage itself.
Many people take “ETF inflows = market should rise” as common sense. But this week’s data strips that notion bare: IBIT alone took in $566 million, Fidelity’s FBTC had a net outflow of $116 million, ARKB outflowed $99.6 million, and Grayscale’s GBTC outflowed $51.8 million. The ETF “net inflow” is just a facade propped up by IBIT alone, while a group of institutions quietly withdraw underneath.
On the derivatives side, leveraged positions chasing longs at high levels have piled up too thickly. $BTC long liquidations accounted for 96.6%, $ETH longs 91.6%. This is not a “natural market decline,” it’s a targeted detonation. The main players never focus on the trickle of ETF inflows; they watch where the longs are stacked, where stop losses hang, then push down to let leverage kill itself. ETF buying is slow money; liquidation selling is instantaneous. Slow money can’t catch the fast blade.
External markets are also delivering blows. On October 22, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped 6.72% in one day; Nvidia, AMD, and TSMC were all hammered. Hedge funds are reducing tech stock holdings at the fastest pace in at least a decade. AI chip stocks have had valuations slashed, and hot money is pulling out of risk assets faster than anyone. Crypto is not an isolated market; it’s the nerve at the extreme end of risk appetite. When tech stocks shudder, this side convulses immediately.
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The most dangerous move now is called “catching a flying knife.”
$BTC is tugging at the 80,000 level; large on-chain addresses are indeed supporting near 80,000, with no signs of panic selling. But “no panic” does not mean “the bottom is in.” The daily EMA is bearish, 81,800–82,000 is short-term resistance, 85,000 is strong resistance, and below that 79,500 and 76,500 are the next decent support levels. $ETH is weaker than the broader market; 2,350–2,380 is the defense line, breaking that means 2,300–2,250 next.
FOMC is on Wednesday. The market prices only about a 10% chance of a rate hike in October; a pause is almost consensus. But consensus itself doesn’t move markets; the Fed Chair’s press conference is the wildcard—if he subtly leaves the door open for a December hike, risk assets will have to squat down again. At this point, longs have just been bloodied, liquidity is thinnest, sentiment is most fragile, and a false breakout can sweep stop losses again.
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In real trading, one sentence: before FOMC, keep your hands still.
Watch one signal—that ETF inflows can shift from “IBIT monopoly” to “broad diffusion.” If next week IBIT still carries it alone and other funds continue outflows, then the tug-of-war at 80,000 isn’t over, and the bottoming process will last longer than most can endure.
Liquidation data has already written the answer on the face: this round is not killing “those who bet wrong,” but “those who are over-leveraged.”
Control your hands, wait for the wind to stop.
$BTC $ETH #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ #Mistral AI获三星与欧盟基金领投30亿欧融资
This article is only a personal market review and does not constitute any investment advice. Leverage is a knife; whichever side you hold, it will cut your hand.As of October 24, 2026, information from the core regional ambassador reveals: the number of independent validator nodes has dropped from 31 to 16. According to its consensus rules, if the number of validators falls to 15 or fewer, the network faces a "fatal risk" of consensus stagnation or even a complete halt in block production. The remaining validators are highly tied to the project team, seriously calling into question the network's decentralization. Nearly zero-cost 69 million "ghost chips" could flood the market at any time, potentially wiping out value overnight. Large-scale exchanges continue to delist, with the number of exchanges supporting CORE sharply reduced from 34 to only 13, and as many as 21 have already delisted it. After official nodes withdrew due to "unprofitability," the flagship product SatPay (BTC debit card) has been confirmed delayed with no clear launch date, meaning the narrative of buying back tokens through ecosystem revenue cannot be realized in the short term. Furthermore, the project team has yet to release a complete technical post-mortem report on the vulnerability, remaining evasive about key information such as the duration of the vulnerability and the list of involved nodes. This lack of transparency exacerbates the risk of the token's value dropping to zero.Tonight's rebound, I glanced at the market depth and didn't even have the desire to chase. It's not that I don't want to go long, but the volume looks terrible, it simply can't fool anyone.
$BTC is stuck at 80,722, the daily MACD death cross is still hanging, and the price is tightly suppressed by MA7 and MA25. What's even more annoying is—the rebound volume is only 0.37 times the 7-day average. What does 0.37 times mean? It means someone is shouting "taking off, taking off," but there's not even a single supporter underneath. Even more divided is the Fear & Greed Index hitting a three-month high of 46, retail investors are FOMOing, while smart money shorts account for 61.8% at the 78,000 resistance level. Institutions are treating retail's "ceasefire celebration" as an exit liquidity event; this trick is too familiar.
$ETH makes my back chill even more. At 2,369, down over 11% in 20 days, the super trend is firmly downward. But look at the liquidation data—over the past 24 hours, Ethereum longs were liquidated for $74.09 million, shorts only $9.02 million. The bulls have been ground down all the way, tonight's small rebound looks more like the last of the defeated catching their breath, not reinforcements arriving. Coinglass's liquidation map shows: above 2,425 there are $1.141 billion short liquidations stacked, below 2,199 there are $612 million long liquidations. The price is now stuck at 2,369, still some distance from the short graveyard above. If new funds were really entering, volume wouldn't shrink to this pathetic state; if shorts are covering, the rally near 2,400 should fizzle out. I bet on the latter.
$SOL at 101.6, RSI 26 oversold, but oversold is never a stop-fall signal. The LH/LL downtrend structure remains intact, 84.44 is the last cover for this wave, breaking it means a new low. Oversold + capital outflow + MACD bearish expansion, triple kill.
The news side needs another hit. SK Hynix's earnings set a record but missed expectations, US stocks after-hours dropped 9% at one point, Korean semiconductor stocks followed suit, global tech risk assets collectively shuddered. If the AI narrative-driven risk appetite starts to contract from here, high Beta crypto assets won't be spared. Don't just focus on the candlesticks, the macro water level above is dropping.
So tonight I'm bearish, but not blindly so. I'm watching if 2,400-2,425 can hold with volume. If it can't hold, the end of short covering is the start of a second dip. If $BTC 80,000 doesn't turn into support within 12 hours, the target of that "magic candle" below is no joke.
Don't mistake a rebound for a reversal. Volume doesn't lie, liquidation data doesn't lie, institutional shorts definitely don't lie.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ #加密财库分化：买币还是回购？ #10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ ETH: Fundamentals have progressed, but the price hasn't cooperated
$ETH has been acting quite awkward this week
It briefly touched 2527 midweek, but by the weekend it fell back to around 2360, going in circles with basically no net gain
However, the news has been quite lively:
On Monday, JPMorgan announced the expansion of JPM Coin to the Ethereum mainnet, offering on-chain USD deposit settlements for institutional clients, as traditional finance continues to move closer to public blockchains;
Then on Thursday, the Ethereum Foundation announced a delay in the Glamsterdam upgrade on the Hoodi testnet due to some gas fee adjustments that might affect existing smart contracts
There’s also some not-so-good news: ETH spot ETFs saw a net outflow of about $220 million this week...
So, how to put it, there is indeed progress on the application side, but the capital side hasn’t given equivalent support yet; next week I’ll first watch if 2500 can be reclaimed—if it can’t hold this area, don’t get your hopes too high for further gains 😇
#波动雷达：币种异动观察 BTC outflow of $331 million, slight inflows for ETH and SOL. This is not simply "abandoning the big to catch the small," but a position shift on the derivatives ledger.
Data shows BTC outflow of about 331 million (heaviest selling pressure), ETH net inflow of 9.42 million (spot shows resilience), SOL net inflow of 520,000 (tentative position building).
Core judgment: This round of BTC outflow looks more like concentrated deleveraging by high-leverage longs rather than a retreat of long-term funds. If selling pressure comes only from contract-side deleveraging, the drop is sharp but recovery is also quick; if spot also suffers outflows simultaneously, that is the real risk. Currently, ETH serves as a capital safe haven, while SOL is a minor probe.
The market is currently trading "structural resilience" rather than a full risk-off.
Bullish path: After BTC deleveraging completes, mainstream capital returns with ETH leading the rally;
Bearish risk: BTC spot outflows expand, and ETH's strength is only a delayed prelude to a catch-up drop.
Summary: Don't be misled by single-day flows; focus on whether "spot follows the outflow" and whether "contract positions continue to shrink." Capital outflow is superficial; leverage structure is the essence.🔥 Public blockchains are getting hotter, but why don't token holders necessarily make money?
Recently, looking at the ecosystems of ETH, SOL, and OKB, I increasingly feel that the market is re-examining one thing: even if a public blockchain develops well, what exactly does that have to do with token holders?
📊 A chain's transaction volume can grow, active addresses can increase, and ecosystem projects can continuously expand, but these numbers don't necessarily directly bring token buying pressure.
The reason is not complicated.
User transaction fees might be very low, and the revenue earned by applications may not necessarily flow back to the native token. Some trading activities might also rely on reward subsidies, and once the subsidies end, the funds will leave.
This is why when I look at X Layer now, I not only focus on new projects and activities but also pay more attention to the actual usage demand for OKB.
💰 The same logic applies to ETH and SOL, only their fee structures, staking, and value capture mechanisms differ.
In the next round of public blockchain competition, what I value more is not who announces how many partnerships, but who can turn real usage into sustained token demand.
Ecosystem prosperity is a good thing, but it cannot be directly equated with token price increases.
$ETH $SOL $OKB
#PublicChainCompetition #ETH #SOL #OKB #XLayerIRYS: $IRYS intraday volatility fully stretched, rapid capital turnover signal interpretation
Current price $0.0723, 24-hour increase +159.32%, 24-hour trading volume approximately $108 million, meeting the 24h trading volume threshold of over ten million.
Contract open interest steadily rising, long-short ratio 1.61, bulls dominant but no extreme skew. Funding rate +0.012%, slightly positive, indicating short-term leveraged longs entering, heat not yet in the crazy premium zone.
24-hour liquidations total $1.28 million, with short liquidations accounting for 72%, the rally mainly squeezing shorts, no concentrated long liquidations so far.
Market rhythm: rapid surge in early session followed by consolidation and digestion, persistent high-level selling pressure. 7-day overall increase close to 170%, short-term gains have already overextended some expectations.
Its core narrative revolves around decentralized storage bandwidth settlement; this round is a capital clustering driven by news catalysts. Such assets typically exhibit rapid volume bursts and quick realization, with very strong capital inflow and outflow rhythms.
From the data perspective: clear long advantage, shorts continuously liquidated, but funding rate is low, incremental leveraged capital follow-up is limited. High-volume consolidation at highs means divergence has widened, not suitable for chasing gains.
Risk points are straightforward: huge short-term gains, once support weakens, pullback could be severe; prioritize waiting for a secondary signal after volume contraction, avoid heavy positions directly. SKhynixQ3HBM4Earnings
Many people previously said that the mass production of HBM4 meant the good news was over, but in the second quarter, SK Hynix only delivered a small amount of product, achieving quarterly profits exceeding 60 trillion KRW with a profit margin of 76%. How can this prove that the good news is over? Obviously, the new profit cycle is just beginning. Now in the third quarter, HBM4 production is officially accelerating, regular DRAM contract prices are still rising, both parties' financial performance is improving, and the shipment fluctuations of the previously smaller new Nvidia graphics cards are also decreasing. #谷歌云业务增长82%，AI投入回报如何？ Google Q3 Earnings Preview: AI is strong, but ultimately it depends on whether it can make money
This time analyzing Google's earnings, the focus is not on how hot AI is, but whether these investments can truly convert into revenue and profit.
Last quarter, Alphabet's revenue was $119.8 billion, up 24% year-over-year; Google Cloud revenue was about $24.8 billion, up 82%; search ads grew 17%, YouTube ads grew 13%.
I am overall optimistic about this quarter, mainly bullish on three aspects:
First, Google Cloud. Deploying AI requires computing power, models, and data platforms. Google's Gemini, TPU, and cloud services have the opportunity to form synergy, and cloud business may continue to be a growth engine.
Second, search ads. AI search won't necessarily destroy traditional search. If it can increase user queries and improve ad efficiency, it might actually create new commercial value. But more AI usage by users does not necessarily mean ad revenue will grow in sync; this remains to be verified.
Third, YouTube ads and subscription business can support overall revenue.
However, data centers, chips, electricity, and depreciation all require heavy investment. Even if revenue grows, if profit margins and cash flow are under pressure, it cannot be considered a perfect earnings report.
My judgment: Google has a chance to exceed expectations this quarter; the biggest highlight is Cloud, and the biggest test is whether AI investments can convert into profit.$ENA is really weak today 😮💨
It surged to 0.2134 in the early morning, now hovering around 0.189, down more than 11% from the high, nearly 9% down intraday, ranking among the top decliners in major coins.
At 3 PM, the high-volume bearish candle smashed through the 0.1935 level, and since then it has been grinding within the small box of 0.1887-0.191, with very weak rebounds. Open interest dropped from about 16.2 million USD at 4 AM to 14.7 million, longs are retreating, but the funding rate is still positive at 0.01%, indicating some are still holding long.
My plan: no short chasing, wait for a rebound.
Direction: short
Entry: 0.1932-0.1945 (the platform smashed through this afternoon, now resistance)
Stop loss: 0.1975 (above the 2 PM rebound high)
Target 1: 0.1850, Target 2: 0.1810
If it doesn’t rebound and breaks below 0.1885 directly, I won’t chase, better to miss out; if it rallies back above 0.1975 with volume, it means my judgment was wrong, I’ll cut losses and exit, no stubborn holding.
BTC is still hovering around 80,700, altcoins are weak accordingly. What do you think about ENA here—is it a shakeout or not done falling yet?
Just my personal view, not investment advice, DYOR
#ENA #ContractStrategy #AltcoinsBefore next Wednesday, 92.8% of people think this exam is settled
FOMC is scheduled for the 27th and 28th, and the market's bet on a pause in rate hikes once reached 92.8%, almost unanimously. But looking at the latest data, I feel a bit uneasy; the October PMI is still strong, and the probability of a pause has started to decline.
This is the most dangerous spot. The pause itself has long been priced in. If it really pauses, everyone will just applaud and be done with it. But if the statement includes a few hawkish remarks, 92.8% of people will try to rush through the same door simultaneously.
Looking at the market, funds have already signaled in advance. Bitcoin slid quietly over the weekend to 80,600, with a low of 80,458—80,000 is right in sight. Ethereum is at 2,364, SOL dropped to 101, and ZEC shrank from 1,368 to 1,154. This isn’t panic; big money just doesn’t want to bet before the exam.
Next week’s tests are still piling up: MSTR’s earnings report will show if it’s still buying crypto; Hynix’s earnings will test if HBM4 can hold the storage sector; French government bonds are still hanging at a 24-year high. Any one of these flunking is enough to shake the market.
My strategy is not to add positions before the exam. Whether 80,000 holds or not, let the market decide. I’ll act once the answer comes out. Being late by a day isn’t shameful; getting stuck halfway up the mountain is.
What do you think? Will this FOMC land safely or will there be a hawkish surprise?
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ $BTC $ETH $SOL $ORDER perpetual 20x short position, opened at 0.07718, currently 0.0719, unrealized profit +136.82%.
The logic is very simple: repeatedly testing resistance near 0.07718 without breaking through, the upper shadows are getting longer, and buying pressure is clearly weakening. Once volume increases and it breaks below short-term support, confirm on the right side, then enter short. 20x leverage, stop loss at 0.08. This drop was extremely smooth, giving no chance for a rebound, profits took off immediately.
Now moving the stop loss to 0.075 to lock in profits. If it breaks below 0.065 with volume, can consider holding a bit longer. $IRYS $SNDK #10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ Extreme reversal captures profits! $IRYS short position grabs 229% profit!
Review of 20:54 data: opened at 0.08156 to mark price 0.06287. The short logic is based on IRYS being driven by AI data chain narrative, with a previously low circulating market cap experiencing a large surge, followed by a short squeeze rally that completely exhausted momentum, a buying gap triggering a high-level crash, and a timely short position precisely capturing the main downtrend wave.
Recent market: On October 24, IRYS surged then fell sharply, rising over 280% before crashing, with long positions in the contract market heavily swept out, causing extreme market fragmentation.
Next focus on 0.06 support. If volume breaks below, holding is advised; if it stabilizes and rebounds, partial profit-taking is recommended. Contract volatility is very high, strictly control position size and set stop losses.
$BTC $ORDER
#AI需求支撑存储市场，芯片股行情反复 Mainstream coins under $ETH liquidation squeeze: Which side will break short-term first?
BTC, ETH, and SOL are currently squeezed between two liquidation zones above and below, with prices closer to the lower long liquidation line. A slight short-term pullback could trigger concentrated liquidations.
Looking below, BTC's largest long liquidation is at 79786.1U, with a liquidation volume of 36.0328 million U, only -0.91% from the current price; ETH at 2352.1U, liquidation volume 17.3226 million U, -0.48% away; SOL at 101.02U, liquidation volume 3.7034 million U, -0.39% away. Among the three, ETH and SOL's lower liquidation zones are especially close to the current price, leaving very little room for pullback.
Above is the short pressure zone. BTC's largest short liquidation is at 82273.98U, liquidation volume 42.3178 million U, +2.18% from current price; ETH at 2400.35U, liquidation volume 17.6441 million U, +1.56% away; SOL at 103.09U, liquidation volume 3.3562 million U, +1.64% away. The short liquidation zones are a bit farther, but once broken, stop-loss orders may accelerate the release.
Overall, the market is in a "close below, distant above" liquidation structure: downward moves are more likely to trigger long liquidations first, while upward moves require stronger momentum to reach dense short zones. In the short term, a break below the lower liquidation levels could cause a quick spike down; holding steady and pushing above the upper liquidation levels could lead to a short squeeze rally. Currently, it is more suitable to focus on reactions after key level breakouts. $BTC $BTC In the past 12 weeks, the 12 days with the largest amplitude did not include a single weekend day.
OKX spot data (8/1–10/23, by UTC day):
Saturday average amplitude 1.07%, Friday 3.89%
Weekend trading volume is less than 40% of weekdays
Staying up late watching the market on weekends mostly means watching a flat line. Real big fluctuations almost always wait until the US stock market and ETFs open.
What beginners should most guard against on weekends is not sharp rises or falls, but the urge to place random orders out of boredom: with such thin volume, a small bullish candle looks like a breakout, but this kind of low-volume "breakout" is the least able to withstand volume confirmation on Monday.
Weekend market trends can be observed, but placing orders should be left to the volume confirmation on Monday.
Not investment advice | Data: OKX BTC-USDT spot daily #BTC现货ETF连续流出 #谷歌云业务增长82%，AI投入回报如何？ 谷歌Q3财报前瞻：为什么我继续押注GAAP EPS超预期？$GOOGL 10月28日美股盘后，$GOOG 将公布2026年第三季度财报。这次我在OKX星球的Outcomes预测中，依然选择了GAAP EPS超预期的Yes。 目前华尔街对谷歌Q3的EPS预期大约在3美元附近，而去年同期为2.87美元。这个预期并不低，但从上一季度的经营数据来看，谷歌的盈利增长还有继续超出预期的可能。 第一，搜索广告业务没有被AI削弱，反而还在增长。 此前市场一直担心ChatGPT等AI产品会分流谷歌搜索用户，进而影响广告收入。但至少到Q2为止，这种担忧还没有体现在财报上。 Q2谷歌搜索及其他业务收入达到632.7亿美元，同比增长17%，YouTube广告收入同比增长13%。 搜索业务最大的优势在于利润率高，而且商业模式已经非常成熟。只要搜索量、广告点击和广告定价没有明显恶化，这部分业务就能持续贡献大量经营利润。 Gemini、AI Overviews等产品也在逐步融入谷歌原有的搜索生态。AI确实增加了推理成本，但同时也有机会带来更多搜索需求和广告展示机会。 这如果周六的平静只是假象，那么下周的利率决议就会把仓位管理变成一场情绪考试。 你现在手里那几个仓位，是真的有逻辑，还是只是舍不得空仓？🌙 BTC 挂在 82300 附近，刚好卡在多空都不太舒服的平衡区。决议前猜方向，性价比其实很低，我更在意的是周末缩量里谁在悄悄减仓。周六不折腾仓位，留足现金等周二，是我今天最想执行的纪律；已经有仓位的，少盯几次报价，反而能省下不少无谓的手续费和情绪消耗。这里偏多的路径是决议落地后不确定性释放、风险偏好回补；风险则是量能继续萎缩，平衡区往下破，山寨跟跌会很快。 ENA 现价 0.1927，很多人把 USDe 和 USDT 混为一谈，这其实是认知差。前者靠抵押资产组合加上合约对冲赚价差再分给持有者，不是现金储备型稳定币。买 ENA 本质是在买这套收益引擎的弹性，不是单纯避险，所以它涨得动也跌得动，仓位别按稳定币的心态去拿。 HYPE 80 这个位置，看的是链上订单簿的真实撮合体验。价值来自平台手续费分成，链上交易越热，代币越有支撑；反过来说，热度一降，估值就会先于数据回落，这是我没敢重仓的原因。 SOL 104，生态热点不在 DeFi，而在 meme 和小#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ 1. Core positives (reasons supporting the 73% probability)
- DRAM and NAND contract prices continue to rise in Q3, HBM (High Bandwidth Memory, AI core) orders are full, cloud providers have locked in long-term contracts, the proportion of high value-added products continues to increase, and profit margins keep rising.
- Latest forecasts from institutions like Citibank: Q3 operating profit is expected to reach 81.3 trillion KRW, about 8% higher than the market consensus, which is a relatively clear upward revision.
- Production capacity is prioritized for AI server storage, with reduced share for consumer mobile phones and PC storage, resulting in a very good overall profit structure.Short-cycle up-and-down markets have become the decisive factor in the competition for leadership in prediction markets.
Kalshi's momentum far surpasses Polymarket, mainly because the BTC 15min and its Combo markets contribute the majority of the trading volume; the BTC 15min market is even subtly about to surpass the non-combo sports market.
Polymarket's growth is not as continuous as Kalshi's, partly because its short-cycle 5min and 15min markets are entangled in competition with Predict Fun.
Predict Fun, leveraging lower fees and continuously improving liquidity, has caught up with Polymarket in trading volume, number of trading users, and number of trades in the 5min market.Brothers, next week is the FOMC, and the market now almost unanimously expects a pause (probability over 90%). But don’t get too happy too soon; "pause" does not mean "giving out candy." There are three variables to watch closely:
First, oil prices. Brent crude is still holding above 110. Any slight stir in the Middle East keeps inflation sticky. The Fed can hold steady, but it can’t pretend inflation is already solved.
Second, Wash’s speech. The market’s expectation for a December rate hike has already reached 67%. If he leans hawkish at the press conference, US Treasury yields will spike, and the crypto market will get hit again. If he leans dovish, the 80,000 level might be a short-term iron bottom.
Third, hawkish dissenting votes. Watch people like Harker closely. If the decision includes dissenting votes supporting a rate hike, that’s an early signal for a December hike.
A couple of words: BTC is currently struggling around 86,000, with 82,500 as the short-term lifeline—if it breaks, look for 70,000; on the upside, 87,000 is a strong ceiling. The current strategy is: don’t chase shorts, don’t blindly bottom-fish, wait for the news to settle and see how the main players shake out the market.
Brothers, do you think after the news drops BTC will take off or get smashed first? Let’s chat in the comments👇
$BTC $ETH $IRYS
#OctoberFOMCApproaching What variables remain for the Fed’s pause on rate hikes? I expect to be very busy next week, so let's talk about some miscellaneous things this week.
First, the altcoin market has recently seen many speculative coins. From what I've observed, they are all pure Ponzi schemes strongly controlled by the manipulators, with price movements almost entirely controlled. In my experience, if the manipulators want to go against you, you are almost guaranteed to fail. However, the price trends are relatively predictable. I won't mention specific coins to avoid riding traffic here. My personal advice is to avoid playing with them; after the pump-and-dump, short squeeze arbitrage, and chasing the long positions, almost everyone gets wiped out.
Next is the $BTC Bitcoin trend. It has reached the 80,000 level again. In the short term, there is a chance it will hold here. According to a rather traditional structural analysis method, the current bullish structure has not been broken yet, so you can try entering the market again. The risk-reward ratio is good (if the purple line breaks, I don't recommend entering). The short-term signal is also shown in Figure 1, indicating an entry opportunity.
For the mid-term elections, we can be sure there will be many fake news and market manipulations. I'm not very confident about the trend. (Don't believe any definitive statements; both bulls and bears have prepared corresponding news and will release whatever they want.)
The US stock market $SPY, semiconductors, storage, and AI sectors are performing very poorly. You can clearly see a double top pattern (see Figures 2 and 3). Don't try to bottom-fish here; it's a classic trap to cut retail investors. Wait for at least a period of bullish candles before considering entry... (Someone in the group discussed this a week ago as a warning; now I'm reminding again, although it's a bit late).$BTC At this time tonight, the most worth watching is not the candlestick chart, but the 10% in interest rate futures.
The market only gives a 10% probability of a Fed rate hike next week. But the probability of a cumulative 25 basis points increase in December is 75% or higher. These conflicting numbers make traders not even believe themselves.
I was watching 80100 all morning, and the trading volume was less than 80% of usual. The price did drop, but no one really dumped. Now sitting on the couch watching the market, the price is touching around 80,600, and the volume is still half-dead, confirming what I said this morning — this kind of drop means no one is really selling, it's just that no one is buying.
What's interesting is the macro side. Previously, everyone hoped for rate cuts and a bad economy, because only when the economy is bad can there be easing. Now the economy is strong, and the Fed has the confidence to keep tightening. A good economy doesn't mean crypto is good; experienced traders have suffered losses from this before. $BTC #10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？
Although the market predicts a pause in rate hikes in October (over 80%), the crypto space's liquidity turning point still requires caution regarding four major variables:
💡 Secondary inflation pressure: Oil prices and service sector inflation remain sticky, making macro liquidity unlikely to ease in the short term.
💡 Hawkish Pause: If Powell hints at a rate hike in December, risk assets will face a secondary repricing shock.
💡 US Treasury yield squeeze: High risk-free rates continue to divert capital from the crypto market, putting altcoin liquidity under pressure.
💡 US stock/crypto correlation: Repeated rate hike expectations can easily trigger short-term high-leverage liquidation cascades.
💡 Trading approach: Don’t just focus on "whether there will be a hike in October"; pay attention to the tone of the press conference. If hawkish signals are released, guard against liquidity pullbacks in BTC and high-beta altcoins. $ETH $BTC That suggests capital hasn't disappeared at the same pace as speculative volume.
The challenge now is turning that capital into sustainable usage instead of relying on the next memecoin wave.
Tokenized equities and other RWAs could become a stronger foundation, especially given Robinhood's existing retail distribution and financial infrastructure.
With its October 27 earnings call approaching, I'm watching for signs that Robinhood can convert its massive user base into real onchain demand.For context, Solana is generating roughly $4M in daily app revenue, with $5.8B in DeFi TVL compared to Robinhood Chain's $1.138B.
Pons, one of the chain's biggest growth drivers, has also seen revenue fall to around $35K to $55K daily. That is a major cooldown from the explosive activity that briefly put it ahead of established launchpads like Pump .fun
But I wouldn't write the chain off just yet.
The more important detail is that TVL has held up better than trading activity.#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ SK Hynix will release Q3 results on the 28th. Consensus operating profit is about 77 trillion KRW, with a profit margin reaching 78%, marking a sixth consecutive quarter of record highs, supported by HBM4 volume growth and DRAM price increases.
Bernstein estimates Samsung's HBM revenue this quarter at about $8.7 billion, already surpassing SK's $7.6 billion. Rubin's delays have pushed shipments back, and there are reports that backend equipment orders have been postponed to next year.
The profit figures look good, but the real focus should be on actual HBM4 shipments and yield rates; catching up in market share is the next challenge.I have a small habit when calculating my position size: for coins that move up and down together, I group them to see how much they occupy, rather than allocating limits by coin name separately. Especially for coins within the same narrative, each individual position might not be large, but combined they could be quite heavy. I used to think that switching to a different coin was diversification, like changing a variable name in code and calling it a new feature. Now, when I want to add a coin to my watchlist and also buy it, I have to check my holdings page first—why is it always the same group again?This sharp drop is not due to internal issues within the crypto circle, but because global liquidity is being indiscriminately drained!
Spot gold has fallen below 4000, and French government bond yields have hit a 24-year high. What does this mean? It means that safe-haven assets and traditional bond markets are both experiencing severe turbulence. Wall Street funds are withdrawing from all high-volatility assets to cope with uncertainty.
The crypto market is under pressure simultaneously. In the past 24 hours, there have been liquidations totaling 490 million across the network, with long positions accounting for 350 million. Nearly 200,000 people have been forcibly liquidated, and Binance's largest single ETH liquidation exceeded 4.77 million USD. This is not simply a technical correction but a massive leverage liquidation triggered by external macro resonance. Long positions are too crowded, and even a slight drop causes a chain reaction of stampedes.
On the funding side, although ETFs are seeing moderate inflows, they cannot hold the bottom against the huge selling pressure from derivatives.
Practical insight: Before the macro environment stabilizes, do not blindly try to bottom-fish on the left side. This round of adjustment is not over yet; wait for the FOMC to fully conclude and provide direction before considering entry.
This article is for market analysis only and does not constitute investment advice. #10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ #现货黄金跌破4000美元关口 #法国国债收益率创24年新高，债市风险会否外溢？ $BTC $ETH $XAU Lying in bed, I glanced at the overall market data and it hit hard. I stared at these numbers and couldn't recover; winners and retail investors are standing on completely opposite sides.
First, let's look at the three major mainstream coins: BTC is hovering around 80,750, down 1.03%, but positions increased by 0.23% to 54.171 billion. ETH is moving near 2,369, down 1.15%, with positions shrinking by 1.01% to 30.814 billion. SOL is grinding around 101.63, down 2.70%, with positions shrinking by 0.45%, leaving only 6.344 billion.
The winners' numbers are even more striking 😮, on a 24-hour basis: long positions 140 million, short positions 2.98 billion, shorts account for 95%. On a 7-day basis: longs 255 million, shorts 3.21 billion, shorts account for 93%. This morning, same basis: longs 299 million, shorts 1.90 billion, shorts account for 86%, with shorts up 57% and longs down 53% in 8 hours.
Comparing to retail investors' performance, the whole network blew up 494 million in one day, up 48.42%, with longs liquidated by 353 million, accounting for 71.4%, and shorts only liquidated 142 million. The largest single liquidation was still an ETH long, 4.77 million at 2,368.
To be clear, this is just a sample of the top 100 winners. On down days, winners naturally lean bearish, so this can't be equated with the entire market being bearish. But putting the two sets of numbers together is very straightforward: winners are profiting on the short side, retail investors are buying on the long side, and the position difference is today's biggest divergence 😬.
BTC account numbers: 54 long, 174 short.#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ The OKX earnings season is heating up this week, and my core prediction logic is simple: don't blindly trust paper data; the macro environment is the real driver.
For example, SK Hynix—I directly bet that the stock won't rise after the earnings report (buy No).
The reason is straightforward: with interest rate hike and cut expectations looming, the market is steadily declining every day, and funds are seeking safety.
Looking at the semiconductor industry's real situation, leaders like Micron and SanDisk are weak, and China's ChangXin Technology has evaporated trillions in market value. Simply put, there is overcapacity and weak demand now.
Without substantial demand support, no matter how good the earnings data looks, the market will ultimately reject it.
I applied the same logic to on-chain points contracts.
I was bearish on SpaceX all along and profited following the market; conversely, I went against the trend to bottom-fish and go long on gold, only to get stuck. This again proves that going against the macro trend often leads to losses.
Currently, I earned a 10U reward for this week's prediction, ranking 597th.
Looking at the newly released Gameweek leaderboard, a 41% return still hasn't made the list; there are too many experts this week, with 4 days left to keep pushing!
In summary: pay more attention to the market and interest rate hikes or cuts; following the trend is the hard truth.
@OKX星球 ETH whale sells another 3,000 coins, OG secures profits
According to on-chain analyst Ai Yi's monitoring, ETH OG with a cost as low as $18.82 continues to sell 3,000 coins, with expected cumulative profits exceeding $15.74 million. The associated address 0xa4c…F02D0 recharged 3,000 ETH (approximately $7.23 million) to Kraken 10 hours ago. The timing of the position opening, source of funds, and recharge method all match previously tracked addresses. If belonging to the same entity, it is suspected to have sold 6,000 ETH since August 2025, totaling about $15.85 million, with an average recharge price of $2,642.42 and a return rate exceeding 139 times.
Low-cost chips continue to flow to exchanges, short-term selling pressure should be noted; however, whale profit-taking does not equal a trend reversal. The key lies in the actual sell orders after recharging and the market's absorption.ETFs appear to be buying on the surface, but the market is crashing—who is frantically dumping?
In the past 24 hours, the entire network saw liquidations totaling $490 million, with long positions accounting for $350 million, and 196,000 people directly wiped out. The worst part is that despite ETF funds showing net inflows, the market was still smashed through.
This reveals a harsh truth: the mild inflows from ETFs are nowhere near enough to fill the huge selling pressure pit in the derivatives market. Earlier, long leverage was too crowded, and too many chased highs. The main players at this point are exploiting the divergence in capital flows to selectively clear out these high-leverage longs. BTC liquidations exceeded $95 million, ETH liquidations exceeded $63 million—these are all bloodied chips.
Looking externally, AI chip stocks are weakening, tech stocks are having valuation cuts, and hot money is fleeing faster than rabbits.
Practical trading insight: longs have just been bloodied; jumping in now to catch falling knives is just giving your head away. Watch closely if ETF funds can increase volume; if inflows remain mild like this, the market will continue to bottom out. Before the FOMC, keep your hands off.
This article is for market analysis only and does not constitute investment advice. #10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ #BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ #AI需求支撑存储市场，芯片股行情反复 $BTC $ETH Mainstream coins under liquidation squeeze: which side will break short-term first
BTC, ETH, and SOL are currently squeezed between two liquidation zones above and below, with prices closer to the long liquidation line below. A slight short-term pullback could trigger concentrated liquidations.
Looking below, BTC's largest long liquidation is at 79786.1U, with a liquidation volume of 36.0328 million U, only -0.91% from the current price; ETH at 2352.1U, liquidation volume 17.3226 million U, -0.48% away; SOL at 101.02U, liquidation volume 3.7034 million U, -0.39% away. Among the three, ETH and SOL's lower liquidation zones are especially close to the current price, leaving very little room for pullback tolerance.
Above is the short pressure zone. BTC's largest short liquidation is at 82273.98U, liquidation volume 42.3178 million U, +2.18% from the current price; ETH at 2400.35U, liquidation volume 17.6441 million U, +1.56% away; SOL at 103.09U, liquidation volume 3.3562 million U, +1.64% away. The short liquidation zones are a bit farther, but once broken through, stop-loss orders may accelerate the release.
Overall, the market is in a "close below, distant above" liquidation structure: downward movement is more likely to trigger long liquidations first, while upward movement requires stronger momentum to reach the dense short zone. In the short term, if the price breaks below the liquidation level, a quick spike down may occur; if it holds and pushes up to the upper liquidation level, a short-covering rally may happen. Currently, it is more suitable to focus on reactions after key level breakouts rather than betting on direction prematurely.$ZEC
ZEC is having a rough day: in 24 hours it dropped from 1258 to 1141. I pulled OKX spot price at 1160 tonight, down nearly 6%, Binance's low was 1141.72, almost the same as OKX.
The positions side is even more interesting. Coinotag statistics show that the total network OI dropped by 12.45% in 24 hours, OKX perpetual positions are now at $131 million, with leverage rapidly being cleared. The fee rate is still positive at 0.0001, retail investors haven't switched to short.
There are two pieces of news. One is the NU7 upgrade around November 5th; the old pattern is that funds always pre-position before and after upgrades; the other is that the 2746 ZEC stolen from Bitget was transferred into a shielded pool, making its on-chain flow untraceable.
The expectation of the upgrade combined with the shadow of the theft, I prefer to see this sell-off as a leverage cleanup. If you really want to buy in, wait until OI and price stabilize together; it's pointless to catch a falling knife now.
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ $BTC
I just said two hours ago that I was leaning towards the ETF side, but the data on Thursday slapped me in the face: the US spot BTC ETF had a net outflow of $635.6 million, the largest single day since June 25, returning about 60% of the $1.07 billion inflow from the previous three days.
Breaking it down, IBIT outflow was $254 million, FBTC $217.5 million, ARKB $109 million, mainstream funds are all withdrawing. The cumulative total for October has therefore turned negative, about -$176 million. However, on a weekly basis, there was still a net inflow of $443 million, with buying in the first three days of the week.
I casually pulled the market data: OKX current price 80,775, 24-hour high 82,047, low 80,390, Binance low point 80,404, both matching. Fee rate 0.01%, perpetual positions $2.47 billion, no obvious shrinkage.
When money flows in, the price doesn't move; when money flows out, the price doesn't crash either, still stuck between those two Bitwise lines. This time I'm not in a hurry to change my stance; one day of ETF red candles doesn't indicate direction, but if 80,000 really can't hold, I admit it.
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ Mainstream Coin Traps: BTC Longs Liquidated for $440M, ETH Whales Accumulate but Price Stalls, SOL Upgrade Launch Backfires
The top three mainstream coins on the heat chart are telling three completely different contradictory stories
$BTC: Fell over 3% in 24 hours. After failing to break through the 84,800-85,000 resistance, it quickly retreated, briefly dropping below 81,000. $441 million worth of liquidations occurred across the network in the past 24 hours, with longs accounting for 90%. 80,000 is the key support level that has repeatedly provided buy orders; holding it could form a double bottom, breaking it would open the way to lower levels.
$ETH: The decline was about 1.3 percentage points worse than BTC. The contradiction lies in the fact that whales are accumulating, with 133 addresses increasing holdings by over 426,000 ETH, and staking hitting a record high of 43.8 million ETH. However, the RSI is only 42, indicating bearish momentum still dominates. A break above 2,400 is needed to talk about recovery; breaking below would test 2,300.
$SOL: The Alpenglow upgrade went live overnight, reducing finality from 12.8 seconds to 150 milliseconds, yet the price dropped 2.4%. A typical case of good news already priced in. The 95-100 range is the last demand zone; breaking below it opens downside space.
Summary: For BTC, watch if 80,000 holds; for ETH, watch the 2,400 support and when whale accumulation turns into buying pressure; for SOL, watch the 95-100 defense line. The "news" on the heat chart often makes it easier for people to buy into rallies when good news hits than with less popular coins.
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ SNDK at $1240, are you bottom-fishing or catching a falling knife?
3 days countdown to the earnings report, your finger hovers over "Buy"—is this trade bottom-fishing AI storage, or handing your head to Wall Street?
Hold on before you click.
Look at the candlestick: from the June high of 2354, it has been smashed down to 1240, a 47% retracement. 30-day drop of 30%, 7-day drop of 5%, still slowly declining in the last 24 hours.
Some in the group shout "AI storage is forever the god," while others quietly share liquidation screenshots.
First thing: AI's meat is in data centers, your meat is on liquidation orders
SanDisk is a top global NAND flash supplier. AI data centers need storage and computing, NAND demand is exploding. Last quarter revenue surged 372% YoY, gross margin hit over 70%, data center revenue doubled quarter-over-quarter. TrendForce says NAND will still rise in 2026.
Is the fundamental strong? Yes.
TTM PE only 17x, forward estimates partly 5-6x, analyst target price midpoint 1800-2200, some call for 3000+.
But the painful truth—
The stronger the fundamentals, the fiercer the earnings night.
On October 29 earnings, company guides revenue $10.3-10.8B, +357% YoY, EPS 44-46 cents. Market expectations are maxed out.
Beat expectations, price may recover to 1400-1600; miss expectations, or if data center guidance is a bit soft, a further 20-30% drop is not a scare.
Heavy bets before earnings are not investing, they are paying market makers' fees.
Second thing: A 47% drop is not cheap, the market is asking if you dare to catch a falling knife
Now at 1240, right at strong support of 1200-1230—near the 200-day moving average, previous lows, and 30-day low at 1232.
RSI daily near 30, oversold, with rebound momentum. MACD bearish but momentum weakening.
Sounds like an opportunity?
But you must see clearly: daily/weekly charts have broken the ascending channel, forming lower highs. Short term is oversold in a downtrend, not a trend reversal.
Resistance above: 1280-1300, then 1350-1400, and further up 1500+.
Support below: 1200-1230. If broken, next stop 1100-1150.
Oversold can get more oversold, support is meant to be broken—until it really holds.
Third thing: Macro is draining liquidity, AI bubble talk is fermenting
CPI about 3.7%, inflation is on the hot side. Fed meeting on October 27-28, hawkish stance continues to pressure high-valuation tech stocks.
AI financing costs rise, big players like Meta have free cash flow pressure highlighted, semiconductor sector overall retracts.
SNDK has contract lock-in and shortage logic, relatively resilient, but it has high Beta, when it falls it won’t talk fundamentals.
Bull vs bear, you decide
On one side:
Structural explosion in AI data center NAND demand
Revenue +372% YoY, gross margin 70%+, net cash
Long-term contracts lock future revenue
Valuation not expensive relative to growth, most analysts buy
RSI oversold, strong support at 1200-1230
On the other side:
47% retracement from ATH, trend still bearish
Earnings expectations extremely high, miss means double hit
Fed may be hawkish, semiconductor sector under pressure
Tokenized perpetuals have poor post-market liquidity, prone to spikes
Memory cycle attribute not gone, ASP peak is a landmine
Trading strategy
Before earnings (1-5 days):
Around 1240 try light long positions, stop loss 1180-1200, target 1280-1320, must reduce or exit before earnings.
If breaks 1200 with volume, no add-ons, switch to short or wait, watch below 1150.
After earnings (1-4 weeks):
Bias to long but wait for confirmation.
If earnings beat, data center guidance strong, gross margin stable, confirm reversal then add, target 1400-1600 or higher.
If guidance weak or macro worsens, don’t catch, wait for 1100-1150 or lower.
Long term (quarterly level):
AI storage shortage logic intact, contract lock-in + high cash flow is the bottom.
But scale in gradually, don’t go all in. If you can’t handle volatility, you won’t get the meat of the AI mega cycle.
SNDK now is like Nvidia in 2022—
Everyone knows AI is the future, but the stock price first halved, then halved again, then finally rose back.
Knowing the direction is right doesn’t mean you can endure that 47% drawdown.
The market always rewards the patient, punishes those who gamble on earnings night.
$BTC $SNDK $NVDA #Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ Trading business growth not only continued but accelerated; new businesses (prediction markets, Bitstamp) also delivered incremental results beyond expectations. Overall performance fully exceeded Wall Street expectations, but the stock price still fell in after-hours trading following the earnings release, reflecting market doubts about the sustainability of high growth.
Trading Business: Significant Acceleration in Growth
Q3 trading revenue surged 129% year-over-year to $730 million, a substantial leap from Q2's 32% year-over-year growth rate:
· Options: Revenue of $304 million, up 50% year-over-year, the largest source of income.
· Cryptocurrency: Revenue of $268 million, up over 300% year-over-year, mainly driven by Bitstamp consolidation and active trading, but slightly below some analysts' expectations.
· Stocks: Revenue of $86 million, up 132% year-over-year.
New Business Increment: Prediction Markets as the Biggest Highlight
· Prediction Markets: Q3 trading volume reached 2.3 billion contracts, doubling quarter-over-quarter; October monthly trading volume already hit 2.5 billion contracts, exceeding the entire Q3 total. Annualized revenue surpassed $100 million in less than a year, becoming the fastest business line in the company to reach this milestone.
· Bitstamp: After acquisition completion in June, fully consolidated in Q3, contributing about $100 million in annualized revenue combined with prediction markets.
· Robinhood Gold: Subscription users reached 3.9 million, up 77% year-over-year, driving other revenues to double. I’m not bearish on storage this cycle, but I’m also not rushing to call for a doubling.
First, the consensus: AI training and inference push data volumes to the sky, and cold and warm data ultimately have to land on NAND; edge AI makes phones, PCs, and cars start from 128G and move up to 512G; if HBF really lands, it will be the second layer of video memory for AI accelerator cards. There’s almost no dispute on the demand side— the more humans develop, the more data they store.
But high demand doesn’t equal high stock prices. Storage is the most typical "demand grows every year, stock prices are a roller coaster" industry. In 2018 and 2022, demand was rising but prices crashed first because none of the five or six big manufacturers wanted to cut production first.
So SanDisk’s valuation depends not on demand but on two things:
1. Whether the market is willing to revalue it from a "cyclical stock" to an "AI storage stock." It’s the world’s only pure NAND play with the greatest elasticity; the BiCS joint venture with Kioxia secures cost control; enterprise SSD plus HBF shifts sales from chips to solutions.
2. Whether Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron, and Changcun’s capacity expansions will get out of control again. This is the most sensitive early sign of a cycle peak.
My approach: the long-term logic holds, and I manage position size according to the cycle table. I watch three signals—monthly NAND contract price month-over-month, major manufacturers’ capex, and quarterly gross margin slope.
Are you treating it as a ten-year holding or playing it as the elasticity of this cycle?Is Elon Musk now paying 8%–9% interest just to borrow money to buy chips? $SPCX is negotiating a $40 billion financing deal to purchase Nvidia chips through a special purpose vehicle to support AI business expansion. Names like Goldman Sachs, Apollo, and Pimco have appeared, making the lineup truly prestigious, but the money is not cheap at all.
Some of the previously discussed yields on subordinated debt were already in the 8%–9% range, and now with fluctuations in the AI market, investors want to renegotiate the price.
What does $40 billion mean? Assuming an 8.5% interest rate across the board, that's $3.4 billion in interest per year. Of course, the actual financing may be divided into different tranches, so it can't be calculated directly like this, but this cost of capital is already quite frightening.
I've always acknowledged Musk's influence. Whenever he casually talks about space AI or data centers, the market is willing to give astonishing valuations. SpaceX indeed has technology and business; there's no need to deny that. But when will these AI projects actually recoup their investments?
Especially this time, they are considering putting the debt off the balance sheet, partly to maintain SpaceX's own credit rating. The debt not being directly on the company's balance sheet doesn't mean the economic risk disappears.
Normally, the better the financing terms, the stronger the company's negotiating position. Now even Musk's projects have to face such high subordinated debt yields, making it hard for me to remain blindly optimistic about the entire AI capital expenditure cycle.
I remain bearish on SPCX. Musk can convince investors about stories ten years from now, but creditors want to receive interest payments on time every year.$DOGE vs $HYPE : Two Crowded Short Trades
Both assets face bearish pressure, but their positioning reveals different risks.
DOGE shorts are sitting on substantial profits, suggesting sellers remain firmly in control.
HYPE looks more interesting. Short exposure is nearly 12 times larger than longs, creating significant squeeze potential.
My view: DOGE remains structurally weak, while HYPE could experience a sharper reversal if buying momentum returns.
The bigger the short concentrationIs borrowing money this expensive for Musk now? Some debt interest rates are talked up to 8%–9%, and I really don't quite understand it.
$SPCX is preparing a $40 billion financing round to buy Nvidia chips to develop AI, and they even set up a special purpose vehicle to keep the debt off the books, trying not to affect their investment-grade rating.
Goldman Sachs and Apollo are in talks, and Pimco might also participate. But after a recent shakeup in the AI market, investors started complaining that the previously discussed interest rates weren't high enough and are preparing to renegotiate.
I just wonder, isn't Musk's influence big enough now? SpaceX, Tesla, Starlink—any of these names alone would attract investors. Yet when it comes to borrowing $40 billion, creditors still have to calculate carefully.
I've been bearish on SPCX for a while, and this is why. Musk is great at storytelling, and many of his stories actually come true, so the market is especially willing to give valuations in advance.
But the speed at which AI is burning money now is just crazy, right? The chips haven't even been bought yet, and who dares to guarantee that future revenues can cover the financing costs?
Especially this off-balance-sheet financing operation—it just doesn't sit well with me. The debt can be placed under whichever entity they design, but ultimately someone has to pay it back.
Now I'm even less interested in chasing SPCX at a high price. Musk's appeal is indeed strong, but I always feel the market has already paid for several years of his future stories in advance.
If someday AI capital expenditures start to cool down, these highly valued stocks will probably be the fastest to run.#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ Q3 Earnings: Will It Exceed Expectations?
Conclusion: Operating profit exceeded expectations, but revenue slightly missed forecasts
Operating Profit: Actual 11.38 trillion KRW, higher than the market estimate of 11.23 trillion KRW, setting a record high (operating margin about 46.5%), a core highlight of consecutive beats
Sales: Actual 24.45 trillion KRW, slightly below the forecast of 24.51 trillion KRW, still a 39% year-on-year increase.
Brief Comment: The slight revenue shortfall was mainly dragged down by weak prices in traditional memory (such as NAND), but strong shipments of high value-added HBM and server DRAM effectively drove overall profit beyond expectations, confirming the market logic of "AI inference demand hedging traditional memory weakness"
HBM4 Core Progress
HBM4 is not only a technological iteration but also SK Hynix's "moat" for maintaining high profitability
Pricing Power Advantage: Negotiations with NVIDIA for HBM4 completed, unit price about $560, over 50% higher than the previous generation HBM3E (about $370), exceeding the industry's previous expectation of $500, demonstrating strong bargaining power
Mass Production and Shipments: HBM4 development completed and mass production started in September, shipments begin in Q4, with full sales expansion in 2026.
Future Profit Guidance: Industry forecasts SK Hynix's HBM business sales to reach 40-42 trillion KRW in 2026, with an operating margin of about 60%, contributing approximately 25 trillion KRW in operating profit from this business alone$BTC The last U.S. midterm election was in November 2022. I recall it was also a bear market then. That cycle saw BTC drop from 69,000 to 15,000. In November, it fluctuated roughly between 17,000 and 20,000. The market only stabilized about half a year later in 2023.
Looking further back for similar times, November 2018 comes to mind. That was also when I accelerated my losses. It was when BTC and ETH both tested new lows again. By early 2019, BTC had dropped 85%, and ETH had fallen 95%.
Going further back, my memory is less clear. November 2014 was during a super bull market for the A-shares and big financial stocks. I’m not sure if that was related to the U.S. midterm elections at the time.
The market is likely influenced by more than one factor. I’m just trying to search for similar scenarios from my trading records to review and see if I can find better ways to respond today $ZEC $DOGE 📉 Market Consolidation or the Calm Before the Next Rally? The first bearish monthly candle after a bear-market bottom can mark an important phase in the market cycle. Historically, markets have often moved through periods of sideways consolidation before establishing their next major trend. What's interesting this time is that these consolidation phases appear to be getting shorter and tighter, with relatively milder volatility compared with previous cycles. 🚀 What to Watch Next: - $BTC : A co#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ 【ETF Alert】ETF: As of October 23 (partial data, 1 not yet released) net outflow of $137.9 million, outflow for 2 consecutive days, cumulative net outflow nearly $248.7 million over 3 days → Bearish (main basis); ① US 10-year Treasury yield at 4.988% (+4 bps, approaching 5%) + crude oil WTI $103.27 (+3.82%), interest rate and inflation double pressure on risk assets; ② Market BTC $80,602, 24h -1.33%, about -0.08% in the last hour, funding rate +0.01% neutral, ETF outflow aligns with price drop, no bearish dampening; ③ Sentiment turns bearish: foreign media say Bitcoin faces a do-or-die weekend, crash concerns intensify (Beijing 19:05), zeroing theory fermenting, weekend liquidity thin, volatility likely amplified; ④ Swiss Bitcoin ETF launched (Beijing 16:29), marginally bullish but small scale; Geopolitics: USS Washington carrier possibly rearming for action against Iran, increased Balochistan attacks (Beijing 17:32), has pushed oil prices up, tail risk → Net: bearish. Recommendation: Treat as bearish, do not chase rebounds, watch the $80,000 level and whether ETF turns to net inflow, consider switching only if ETF inflow occurs and 10-year yield falls below 4.9%; no change in strategy and allocation.Brothers, the most fatal thing in the crypto circle is never a sudden crash, but the itchy hands and reckless operations under a grinding market!
Currently, BTC is at the critical 80,000 mark. Institutional Wintermute clearly defines the core range: if it effectively breaks below here, the market will follow down to test the 76,000 level; only by standing firm on support again can it have conditions for a recovery rebound. The 87,700 level above is the concentrated cost zone of trapped positions before the New Year, with a pile of floating loss chips, making it a solid strong selling pressure level. Major institutions expect a year-end bullish target of 100,000–125,000, with the premise of holding the core 80,000 range.
My practical approach is very clear: 80,000 is the dual support of ETF cost and the psychological defense line of 80,000, serving as the short-term defensive bottom line. If it holds, expect oscillation and recovery; once broken, never blindly bottom-fish, patiently wait to redeploy at the 76,000 value center. Stick to not chasing highs or guessing bottoms, only trade the right-side confirmed market.
The market is very torn: in the past month, whales have accumulated nearly 90,000 BTC, but ETF funds have continuously flowed out in October. Big money quietly hoards coins while on-exchange channel funds withdraw; the oscillating shakeout is specifically designed to discipline frequent traders and itchy-handed retail investors.
Oscillating declines grind the mind and are the easiest way to lose principal. At this stage, just closely watch the key 80,000 level, control your hands, and quietly wait for the FOMC to deliver a clear direction!
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ #AI需求支撑存储市场，芯片股行情反复 #中东原油供应风险再起，油价持续走强 $BTC $ETH $IRYS #10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？
The Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting on October 27-28 is just around the corner. On the surface, the market generally expects no change in October, but brothers, take a close look at the underlying data in this chart—there are strong undercurrents beneath the surface.
The latest preliminary October S&P Global Composite PMI hit 57.6, with the Manufacturing PMI soaring to 56.0, marking a 53-month high. Even more critical, the increase in corporate selling prices is the fastest since August 2022. What does this mean? It means the U.S. economy is not in recession but rather heating up, and the root of inflation has not been removed.
The community comment at the bottom of the chart hits the nail on the head: "Pause is not a dovish pivot; 92.8% of pricing hides a December rate hike knife, the real signal is in the wording."
The trading strategy in recent days is very clear: before the meeting results are released, absolutely do not heavily bet on a one-sided move. If you hold long positions, take profits during this rebound; if you are out of the market, closely watch the post-meeting statement and capital flows. If Powell (or Waller) comes out hawkish and the market rebound is weak, we will follow the trend to short and take profits on the pullback. Don't be cannon fodder before the news lands; wait until the boot fully drops, then enter to pick up cheap chips. Keep cash in hand and wait for the wind to blow. $BTC