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History says $BTC bottoms AFTER midterms.
2014: -58%
2018: -84%
2022: -77%
2026: -23% so far.
This is NOT the same drawdown. Weak hands already flushed.
My take: The bottom is IN, pre-election. The midterm dip everyone is waiting for? Already happened.
You still waiting for $70k or you buying fear?
$BTC
#USMidtermsPolicyOutlook 🚨 THE CRYPTO MARKET IS UNDER PRESSURE — AND THE NEXT MOVE COULD GET WILD!
Bitcoin, Ethereum and Zcash are facing fresh selling pressure as ETF outflows and shifting liquidity keep traders on edge.
📉 Key Market Levels:
🟠 BTC: Short zone at $77.7K–$78.1K
SL: $78.6K | Targets: $76.5K → $75.8K
🔵 ETH: $2,305 is the key support to watch.
SL: $2,345 | Targets: $2,230 → $2,200
💎 ZEC: Down 7.4%, breaking below EMA20 and EMA50.
#USMidtermsPolicyOutlook #BTC #Trading
#DailyOrbit 6.3 Billion Hacker Mystery and Midterm Election Day: The Major "Trust Discount" Shakeup for BTC, ETH, and OKB
On November 3rd, Midterm Election Day, the crypto market lacked directional catalysts. Instead, under the dual shadows of Binance's $6.3 billion hack (with $3.24 billion still in hacker wallets) and the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates, the market showed a fragile "localized recovery."
$BTC closed at 77,522 (+0.95%). As the most defensive in the eye of the storm, it only fell 7.8% in October, but ETFs saw a single-day outflow of 643 million, with the 80,000 resistance level holding firm and lacking independent upward momentum.
$ETH closed at 2,291 (+1.71%). Leading in gains but fragile, a large amount of ETH in hacker wallets creates implicit supply pressure, compounded by six consecutive days of ETF outflows, causing a serious disconnect between price and capital.
$OKB closed at 108.56 (-0.69%). The only one with negative gains, reflecting real changes: Binance outflowed 7 billion, while OKX led inflows against the trend with 445 million. The slight decline indicates capital movement leading price, with the market showing a lag in pricing the "trust premium."
Summary: The three form a "defense-fragile-beneficiary" spectrum. The current core contradiction is the repricing of the "trust discount," with the Fed's balance sheet expansion so far only causing a frictional rebound. Keep a close watch on BTC's range-bound oscillation and ETH's hacker-related anomalies.
#苹果Q4营收超预期，下季度毛利率指引承压 🔥 Attention! There might be an interesting pattern between the US midterm elections and the historical trend of $BTC.
Looking back at the performance after the last three midterm elections:
📍2014: Bottomed about 71 days later, price around $170.
📍2018: Bottomed about 39 days later, price around $3,200.
📍2022: Bottomed about 13 days later, price around $15,500.
From these lows, the subsequent gains were:
🚀 $170 → $20,000, over 100 times
🚀 $3,200 → $64,000, about 20 times
🚀 $15,500 → $126,000, about 8 times
An interesting detail: the time to bottom shortened each time, being 71 days, 39 days, and 13 days respectively.
Historically, the most panic in the market often also breeds the opportunity for the next cycle.
Will $BTC repeat this pattern this time? 👀Why was Binance hacked, but the ones that died were other small and medium exchanges?"Unlocking the calendar is not a sell button"
$ENA and $HYPE were consecutively flagged by third-party calendars, tightening market sentiment initially. But "unlocking" is merely a supply observation, not a sell signal. There is a gap between quota, arrival, and placing sell orders involving execution and motivation; a single screenshot cannot determine a short position.
For ENA, the initial rule is that core contributors hold 30%, locked for one year and vested monthly; the platform has differences in batch criteria, and November 5 is just an observation point. More attention should be paid to actual on-chain transfers, net inflows on exchanges, and whether the USDe scale remains stable. Having real product demand does not mean new chips will be automatically absorbed.
For HYPE, the official confirmation is that the team has no external financing, and the token still carries staking functions; staking to spot usually takes 7 days. Third parties list November 6 as the team allocation observation day, but the estimated upper limit is not a confirmed sell volume. The focus is on the real distribution of team addresses, spot market depth, and whether the buy orders formed by protocol fees can absorb the supply.
I will not blindly short just because of "unlocking," nor will I ignore supply because the project is strong. Are you more worried about the new chips themselves, or that no one will take the other side? #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ #苹果Q4营收超预期，下季度毛利率指引承压 #PalantirQ3营收增长96%，股价不涨反跌 It's 5:30 PM, just about to pack up and get off work. I switched back to the market screen and wow, the main force is harvesting so thoroughly, they don't even plan to leave a root. All the leverage below is lining up to be sacrificed.
First, look at $DOGE, current price 0.074. The 4-hour long-short ratio has shot up to an outrageous 5.23. Despite the drop, there's a whole bunch of bulls stubbornly holding on below. The leverage is stacked like a fortress. The main force must be grinning at this data. Without a big bearish candle to completely wipe out this group, there's no way to pump the price.
Next, $SUI, current price 0.87, is steadily declining with no sign of stabilization. But the long-short ratio stubbornly stays at 2.8. Retail investors keep buying more as it falls, the old bad habit unchanged. The open interest remains high. This is clearly like boiling a frog slowly, grinding down the bottom-fishing leverage bit by bit. Don't catch the falling knife.
Finally, $PEPE, current price 0.0000047, is the harshest. The funding rate has directly dropped to negative 0.15%. Bulls have been tormented into submission and are now paying to beg for mercy. The long-short ratio has fallen from the morning's high, indicating many can't hold on and are cutting losses. When panic selling hits, there might be a short-term rebound, but the overall trend remains weak.
In summary, until the main force is full, any rebound is a bull trap. Control your hands, don't use real money as cannon fodder.
How are your positions? Have you cut losses and fled, or are you planning to hold on to the end?
#美国10月非农前瞻：就业增长或牵动12月加息预期 #Báo cáo tài chính của Circle sắp ra mắt, liệu sự tăng trưởng của stablecoin có thể hiện thực hóa lợi nhuận không? Devcon 8 opens today in Mumbai, Nov 3-6 at Jio World Centre — 300+ speakers including Vitalik, and the big one for me is tomorrow's Nov 4 debate on $ETH issuance (EIP-8363). No Glamsterdam mainnet date yet, so I won't trade the hype. $ETH is $2,285 — my line is $2,200 support, $2,300 to flip bullish. Do you think Devcon moves ETH this week? #Ethereum #Devcon$ETH $BTC Midterm Election Timeline
House of Representatives: Basically determined around noon Beijing time on November 4, with an error margin of no more than one day.
Senate: If North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas are clear that night, conclusions will be available by the afternoon of November 4; if it depends on Pennsylvania or Maine, wait until November 5–6; if it depends on Alaska or triggers a runoff, it will be delayed until mid-November or even early December.
Official certification (state certify results) is separate and usually takes 2–5 weeks, but that does not affect market judgment. Therefore, for the market, the real risk window is the gap period of "Senate undecided" from the afternoon of November 4 Beijing time until before the non-farm payroll release on November 6.$WLFI
Sun Yuchen went to court again, but this time the dispute isn't about the coin, it's about the shareholders' nationalities.
Someone in the group saw "motion to sanction WLFI" and shouted that the market would turn. Let me pour some cold water on that; this motion doesn't mention price at all.
The matter itself is simple: his lawyer submitted a sanction motion yesterday, claiming World Liberty reported shareholder identities late. Initially, only Florida was listed, but after months of litigation, 22 entities were added, including Florida, Delaware, Puerto Rico, and the UAE. Nationality is not a trivial matter in the U.S. federal court; it determines whether the case can proceed.
So this move shifts the battlefield from smart contracts to procedural grounds. The frozen amount is still those 4 billion tokens, bought for $45 million, currently valued at over $200 million at 0.0513 each on the books, but not a single token can be withdrawn. The more impressive the numbers, the more it shows he wants unlocking, not market movement.
The market indeed hasn't taken it seriously. Last night at 8 PM, it surged to 0.05213, then fell back to 0.0513 within two hours, rising less than 3% in 24 hours, with contract positions only at $6.9 million. What really prices it is whether those 4 billion tokens will be dumped all at once someday. As for when—I don't know, nor do I intend to guess.
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ $SNDK
SanDisk surged to 1153 then dropped back to 1117, the contract here finished early
The semiconductor sector is really strong at the US market open. SanDisk closed at 1075 previously, hit a high of 1153 intraday, up 7% at one point, now back to 1117, still holding 3.9%.
But OKX's SNDK contract finished at the 10 o'clock hourly candle. Volume spiked to 205,000 contracts touching 1155.8, slightly higher than the underlying stock; two hours later at 1119, volume dropped to only 27,000 contracts, down 80%.
Open interest tells more. At 20:00 it was still increasing, up 5.3% in one hour to 128 million; at 22:00 during the spike it directly decreased 4.9%, now 119 million. The spike was from reducing positions, not new longs. Funding rate is 0.0023%, longs aren't even willing to pay a premium.
I believe in this semiconductor recovery, but tokenized stocks have an old problem: the underlying stock closes but the token keeps moving, and after US market hours late at night it’s easiest to get exaggerated moves. This upper shadow tonight, judging by turnover, I don’t consider it a breakout.
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ 🚨 Don't rush to bottom-fish! $SNDK might not have finished falling yet; the real risk could still be ahead!📉
After last night's opening of the US stock market, it plunged all the way down. Many people's first reaction might be: the opportunity has come, time to bottom-fish!
But I don't think so right now.
Market weakness has spread across multiple sectors. The US dollar continues to weaken, crude oil is down, and even gold hasn't provided enough safe-haven support. In comparison, mainstream US stocks and $ETH have fallen more sharply.
What really worries me is that the market currently lacks enough buying support. Panic sentiment keeps rising, and institutions seem to be reducing their risk exposure. If selling pressure continues to increase, it will be hard to find enough funds to catch the fall.
Less than 24 hours remain until the US election results are announced. In such a highly uncertain environment, off-market funds will likely be more cautious and unwilling to take risks easily.
My current approach remains primarily short-selling; I'm not in a hurry to bottom-fish.
Remember: a market decline doesn't mean the opportunity has arrived. Sometimes preserving capital is more important than rushing to catch the bottom!
#SNDK #ETH #USStocks #CryptoMarket #MarketAnalysis #TradingStrategy
#DailyOrbit AMD 还没出财报，股价已经先跌了 19%。周一收在 466.84，三个交易日跌掉的，比周三到期的期权押的 9% 还多出一倍。而且这 19% 大半不是它自己的事，是英特尔给的指引太差。 英特尔 10 月 29 日盘后给的四季度营收是 150 亿到 160 亿美元，华尔街估的是 170 亿左右。它还说电脑市场要冷到明年上半年，今年出货少 12%，明年再少 10%。英特尔第二天跌了 28.6%，三天跌了 37%。AMD 也做电脑 CPU，周五跟着跌了 10.9%，周一又跌了 7.5%，两天一共跌了 17.6%。可同样这三天，英伟达只跌了 6%，半导体 ETF SMH 跌了一成左右。 其实电脑芯片在 AMD 身上已经没那么重了。上季它营收 115 亿美元，数据中心占了 58%，电脑芯片只占四分之一出头。英特尔这次反倒是服务器 CPU 做不出来那么多。Cantor 的分析师说，它在服务器上明显在把份额丢给 AMD。摩根士丹利周一也说，AMD 的服务器 CPU 很强，至少能把电脑的拖累补回来。Lisa Su 8 月的电话会上也打过招呼，内存和零件在涨价，她已经按电脑市场走软来做计划了。 出数以后$NIGHT
Control situation: The top 100 on-chain addresses control over 98%, with retail circulation only about 5%. The project parties (two major entities) collectively hold more than 50% of the tokens with no lock-up restrictions, maintaining absolute control. Coupled with the selling pressure left by the historically stolen cross-chain bridge, the chip structure is extremely fragile.
Price point analysis: The current price is about $0.0427. Resistance is in the 0.043-0.044 range (recent high near 0.043159); only a volume-backed close above 0.044 can open upward space; support is first seen at 0.040-0.041 (near EMA20/50), with strong support at 0.039 (previous low 0.039522). The 15-minute chart shows MACD volume contraction and RSI falling to around 65, indicating short-term momentum weakening and a need for a pullback.
Trend judgment: In the short term, it is highly likely to surge and then fall below 0.044, testing lower support; in the mid-term, as long as the control structure remains unchanged, any rally is more of an "emotional pulse" rather than a reversal, with heavy overhead resistance and high risk in chasing highs. In terms of operation, short positions near resistance require strict stop-loss to prevent a short squeeze; if volume breaks through 0.044, reassess again. 🚨 BITCOIN CONFIRMS BREAKDOWN ON THE MONTHLY CHART
$BTC closed the candle below last month's bottom, wiping out the September uptrend. The FVG zone around 75,000 dollars is becoming the focal point.
Scenario:
- 75,000 dollars → important FVG zone
- 70,000–72,000 dollars → deep liquidity sweep
- Reclaim structure → start recovery
- Break above 87,000 dollars → strengthen uptrend
- Next target → 96,000 dollars
If BTC holds the FVG after the sweep, the recovery potential will be reinforced.🔥Midterm Election Storm Approaching
$BTC $ETH $SOL
The midterm election market is expected to drop again,
but it won't fall too much.
After this event passes,
the market will start to bottom out.
The bottom of the past three Bitcoin cycles
all appeared after the US midterm elections:
2014: 71 days after the election
2018: 39 days after the election
2022: 13 days after the election
If this pattern repeats,
the end of 2026 to early 2027
could be the time window for Bitcoin's next cycle bottom.
If you find this review useful, please give a like!
Press 1 if it drops first then bottoms out, press 2 if it reverses directly.
This is only a market review and does not constitute investment advice.
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ SanDisk is more than 10% below the long-term average price, and HYPE is also shrinking in scale
$HYPE 82.95, down 6.0% in the past 24 hours, contract open interest decreased, and price is also weak 🪁
During a completed 12-hour period of the corresponding contract, open interest fell by 1.3%, contract price dropped 3.5%, both open interest and price are contracting.
Scale has shrunk, but price pressure has not disappeared; spot price is also near the low of 82.59, recovery position remains low.
I am cautious; a rebound requires position improvement and cannot interpret the reduction in contract open interest directly as the selling pressure having ended.
$SNDK 1089.12, down 8.7% in the past 24 hours, the gap with the long-term average price is larger than the daily drop 💾
SanDisk's 20-day closing average price is about 1275.52, quoted about 14.6% lower, the long-term gap remains large, 1100 has not yet been reclaimed.
This gap has accumulated over multiple trading days; one or two upticks do not necessarily mean the recovery is complete, short-term rebounds do not equal longer-term recovery.
I see this as a partial rebound during adjustment; the longer-term area has not been recovered, evaluation should not be based solely on rebound speed.
$NEAR 3.808, down 11.8% in the past 24 hours, heavy decline, trading has not calmed down 🌱
In the past two full hours, it dropped 1.6%, trading volume increased by 87.6% compared to the previous two hours, the decline corresponds to active expansion, trading has not decreased.
The quote of 3.808 is only about 0.5% higher than the low of 3.79, the rebound is still at a low level, around 4 has not been reclaimed.
This performance is weak, activity needs to be seen in which direction it falls, more trading does not automatically bring a higher position.$XTZ offers an example of blockchain governance designed to support protocol evolution over time. Upgrades can improve performance and introduce new capabilities, but their impact depends on developer adoption and practical use. Governance participation, application growth, network activity, and the quality of implementation deserve attention.#AMD财报前瞻：HeliosAI系统商业化进展 Currently, AMD is priced with extremely high expectations, with a forward P/E ratio as high as 144 times, and the options market implies a single-day volatility ranging from 8.95% to 10.85%. If the Q4 revenue guidance (consensus around $16.29 billion) fails to meet aggressive investor expectations, it is very likely to repeat last quarter's scenario of "earnings beating expectations but still plunging after hours." The odds of beating expectations remain very high, but the stock price is unlikely to escape a post-market plunge Evening session on 11.03: Triple negative factors resonate, rebound is a short opportunity!
Currently, the market is steadily declining. $BTC is priced at 76410, the weekend rebound to 78831 was brutally rejected, with both 1-hour and 15-minute moving averages in a full bearish alignment. The 78000-78800 range above feels like a heavy mountain pressing down. $ETH is at 2242, having plunged nearly 17% in 30 days, weaker than BTC.
Looking at liquidation data, it's a battlefield. The dense liquidation zone above BTC at 76966 is the first critical resistance for a rebound; ETH faces even tighter suppression above 2289. The most dangerous is that the current price is close to the liquidation zone below; once it breaks effectively, a chain reaction of liquidations will trigger an accelerated decline instantly.
The news side brings a "triple kill" resonance:
1. Big players exit: Arthur Hayes clearly stated he has sold $22.28 million in crypto assets and is now watching from the sidelines.
2. Institutional retreat: ETF net outflow on October 30 reached $643 million, the largest since June.
3. Macro risk aversion: AI tech stocks are weak, compounded by geopolitical risks in Iran, severely suppressing risk appetite.
Large capital bearishness + institutional withdrawal + macro suppression leave bulls powerless.
Trading strategy (firmly short on rebounds):
BTC: Short in batches on rebounds between 76800-77300, stop loss above 77600, target first at 75800, break below targets 74708
ETH: Short in batches on rebounds between 2260-2290, stop loss above 2310, target at 2220, break below targets 2180 $ENA is linked to Ethena's synthetic dollar ecosystem, which uses crypto-market mechanisms rather than conventional bank deposits alone. Its model requires careful assessment of funding rates, collateral, liquidity, and counterparty exposure. Understanding how the system behaves during stressed markets is more useful than judging it solely by yield opportunities.$BTC $ETH $SOL
Multiple on-chain data indicate that recently, the holdings of long-term BTC holders have been continuously rising, with circulating chips on the market steadily consolidating and selling pressure steadily decreasing. Under the uncertainty of the election, short-term speculative funds have exited, while institutional funds with a long-term perspective continue to accumulate at low levels, continuously strengthening the bottom support of the market.
From a historical cycle perspective, the stage of high chip lock-up is often the accumulation phase for a new major market rally. In the short term, market fluctuations are limited due to macro sentiment disturbances, but the support below is extremely solid, systemic crash risk is very low, and the market is waiting for the macro benefits catalyzed by the US election to trigger a new round of upward recovery.U.S. Midterm Elections + Nonfarm Payrolls
$BTC +$ETH Market Trends
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ Two major macro events resonating will dominate the subsequent trends of BTC and ETH. Different midterm election outcomes will directly change the U.S. Treasury and dollar liquidity environment, indirectly affecting the crypto space.
If the Republicans take both chambers, fiscal expansion expectations will push up U.S. Treasury yields and strengthen the dollar, putting pressure on BTC and ETH; if the Democrats control both chambers, fiscal constraints will apply, U.S. Treasury yields will decline, benefiting crypto assets. The market is most likely to see a divided government, with both parties checking each other, making major policy changes unlikely, leading to wide-range market fluctuations. If the election results are disputed, risk-off sentiment will surge, causing crypto prices to quickly plunge.
#美国10月非农前瞻：就业增长或牵动12月加息预期 Overlaying the October nonfarm preview: stronger-than-expected employment data will reinforce December rate hike expectations, tightening liquidity and suppressing Bitcoin and Ethereum; weaker-than-expected employment will cool rate hike expectations, creating rebound opportunities.
BTC and ETH are highly sensitive to U.S. Treasury yields. Before these events unfold, avoid heavy one-sided bets, prioritize observing U.S. Treasury and dollar signals. Under a divided government scenario, volatility will intensify; high leverage must be risk-controlled, waiting for clear signals before positioning accordingly.
$BTC $JUP is associated with Jupiter's trading ecosystem on Solana, where efficient token discovery and execution are important to users. A competitive interface can attract traders, but retaining them requires reliable routing, liquidity, and useful features. Platform activity does not automatically translate into proportional economic value for token holders.Let me make one thing clear early in the morning: the second phase of asset-by-asset release by Mouan does NOT mean the market has warmed up. The release means assets are being checked one by one; the withdrawal channels have loosened, but that doesn't mean the buyers have returned. Don't equate these two things.
The evidence from the market is actually the opposite: in 24 hours, BTC positions dropped 0.95%, ETH dropped 2.14%, SOL dropped 0.56%, ZEC dropped 4.63%; none of the four coins' positions went up. In 1 hour, only BTC rose 0.13%, ZEC rose 1.35%, while ETH and SOL continued to fall. The slight uptick can't even cover the gap for a whole day.
What’s even more painful is the cost basis of positions: BTC is still holding at 0.0102%, ETH at 0.0081%, SOL at 0.0075%, ZEC loosened to 0.0033%. Long positions are still paying to hold, but positions are getting lighter day by day. The number of people paying to stay is decreasing, not increasing.
So my direct judgment: the release is just the channel reopening; position recovery is the real signal. The data on position vacancies overnight is already behind us; the market has digested a wave, and I don’t take it as directional evidence. Those who rushed in chasing the release news are betting that the channel equals sentiment, but the reality is positions are still going down. The channel loosened, but positions haven’t returned. Before positions stop falling within 24 hours, don’t rush to read the release as positive news, and don’t chase the uptick to add positions. Wait for positions to stabilize first, then talk about direction. Which coin’s position do you think will stop falling first? 👀#Circle財報在即，穩定幣成長能否轉化為收益？ From the current market expectations, Circle's upcoming earnings report is likely to barely meet revenue expectations, but exceeding them won't be easy. Although the overall scale and on-chain activity of USDC have continued to grow, the decline in reserve yields caused by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts has been eroding their profit margins. Coupled with a recent miss last quarter, the market remains cautious about its profitability performance. The key will be whether USDC's growth rate can offset the impact of falling interest rates. A simple trap set by the manipulator scared a bunch of retail investors.
Brothers, tonight's rebound—how many of you are shouting that the reversal is here, that the bull market is about to start again?
Look closely, $ETH only touched 2308 at the highest before immediately softening, not even breaking through the dense moving average resistance above.
Looking further down at the bottom volume, this rebound has no capital follow-through at all; it's all shorts taking profits and retail investors chasing longs creating a false illusion.
This is a classic case of "low-volume bull trap."
Why do many brothers panic as soon as they see a rise?
Because they are fully invested, heavily leveraged, or even close to forced liquidation prices.
But in trading, you focus on the bigger trend and risk-reward ratio.
Look at my short position at 2671, the profit has already been securely taken at 1438%.
The major downtrend structure hasn't changed at all; the highs have dropped step by step from 2579 to 2538, then to tonight's 2308.
The next plan remains clear: once this wave of emotion is vented, as long as the rebound can't push through the 2300 - 2310 resistance zone, it's an excellent shorting opportunity.
Looking further down, once it breaks below the 2236 consolidation low, it will most likely test the previous low at 2174 directly.
Don't be scared by the manipulator's little tricks, recognize the big trend, hold your bottom chips firmly, this meat is ours to eat.
$BTC
$ZEC
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ 🔥 TRENDING ON OKX TONIGHT — Fearful, But Dip-Buying!
Mood: Fear & Greed 26 = fear. Yet $BTC holds its key level + traders keep buying dips. That's not panic, that's positioning.
Trending:
$BTC/USDT $77,641.20 +0.16% — holding
$ETH/USDT $2,298.49 +1.09% — leading
$OKB/USDT $109.01 -2.38% — cooling
Educational: In fear, smart money watches flow, not feelings. Capital rotating toward OKX = liquidity + confidence.
Watch $BTC hold, $ETH follow-through. Risk: fear can flip fast, size small.Circle 这季的每股收益，我看多半能到 0.38 以上。让我这么想的，不是 Circle 自己说了什么，是 Coinbase 上周四发的三季报。 Circle 的钱，主要是 USDC 背后那几百亿美元储备买国债吃的利息。可这笔利息有一大半要分出去，分得最多的就是 Coinbase。二季度它拿走的，占 Circle 全部分销成本的将近八成。Coinbase 三季报材料的第 36 页，把这一块列得清清楚楚。 Coinbase 写的三季度 USDC 平均市值是 730 亿美元左右，二季度是 770 亿，少了 5% 左右。Coinbase 从 USDC 拿到的钱是 3.28 亿，只比二季度多了 800 万。这笔钱，基本就是 Circle 付给它的分成。按 Circle 8 月给的全年指引倒推，下半年分出去的比例要涨不少，利润率要掉一截。照 Coinbase 这个数，三季度掉得没那么多。 再加上它账上还有 1 亿多美元的币，都按市价记账。三季度 HYPE、比特币、以太坊涨了 40% 到 70%，可最大的一块 Canton Coin 跌了一成左右。粗算合起来，有 1,000 多万美元的收益。两Whether the rebound can continue now seems more driven by news; looking at the K-line alone is not enough (｡･ω･｡)
With the US midterm election results window approaching, the composition of Congress affects crypto regulation, fiscal spending, and risk appetite; tonight's JOLTS and Friday's nonfarm payrolls combined with December rate hike expectations may increase macro volatility.
BTC spot ETF saw a single-day net outflow of $643 million, institutions are still reducing risk; BTC is relatively resilient, but funds have not continuously flowed back, which only indicates strong support but no confirmed reversal yet.
ETH spot ETF had a single-day net outflow of $156 million, totaling about $1.61 billion over the past 30 days, showing the most significant mid-term capital pressure; contract sentiment is bearish, but if BTC stabilizes, ETH might trigger short covering (๑•̀ㅂ•́)و✧
SOL spot ETF had a single-day net outflow of $10.74 million, about $144 million over the past 30 days; the team advises validators to guard against a Linux kernel vulnerability, with no evidence of breach and not a Solana code issue, but short-term sentiment is disturbed.
From another perspective, BTC is relatively stable, ETH offers a recovery-driven short-covering opportunity, and SOL is the most aggressive with the lowest tolerance 😊
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ 🚨 If Bitcoin drops to $74,700, I might really take action! 👀
Having observed BTC for so many years, I've gradually found that the 120-day moving average on the daily chart is often an important support area worth watching.
If $BTC falls back to around $74,700, I will definitely seriously consider going long. After all, there aren't many obvious support levels nearby right now, so this position deserves close attention.
Shorting BTC might seem like the trend, but I personally remain cautious. For retail investors, shorting can sometimes become a trap, and if the market suddenly rebounds, the risk can quickly escalate.
From here on, it's best to proceed carefully. Managing leverage well, practicing good risk management, and avoiding blindly chasing highs or selling lows are the keys to long-term survival.
If BTC really drops to $74,700, would you choose to buy the dip and go long, or continue waiting for confirmation? 👀
#BTC #Bitcoin #CryptoMarket #BitcoinTrading #美国中期选举
#DailyOrbit When others panic, Strategy keeps accumulating! $BTC
Strategy purchased another 811 BTC between October 26 and November 1 at an average price of $80,800. Its total holdings have now reached 849,327 BTC, acquired at an average cost of around $75,500.
Despite market uncertainty, the company continues its long-term Bitcoin accumulation, backed by approximately $4.9B in cash reserves. 💰
#USMidtermsPolicyOutlook $CL
Recent crude oil plunge is mainly due to the concentrated squeeze-out of geopolitical risk premium.
With the US and Iran simultaneously signaling easing through negotiations, market bets on a supply disruption in the Strait of Hormuz have quickly cooled, leading bulls to exit en masse; combined with limited OPEC+ production cut constraints, increased Middle East exports, and downward revisions in demand expectations, the weak fundamentals have been exposed, and programmatic selling has amplified the decline.
There is significant divergence in the outlook. Bears believe that after the geopolitical logic is disproven, oil prices will return to fundamentals with further downside potential; supporters emphasize low inventories, insufficient supply elasticity, and OPEC+ support, with Goldman Sachs even raising oil price forecasts.
Currently, a short-term phase of high-level wide-range oscillation and increased volatility is more likely: after the geopolitical premium is given back, a new fundamental anchor needs to be found, but conditions for a sustained deep decline are insufficient; if negotiations stall or conflicts reignite, a rapid rebound could be triggered. The probability of a smooth one-way decline is limited, so key focus remains on US-Iran negotiation progress and on-site Middle East frictions.
#伊朗授权政府谈判，霍尔木兹重开能否提速？ #加密行业协同守护资产安全 The heat remains, but the 24-hour volatility continues to compress?
DOGE is stuck at 0.0733, community narratives persist, but the 0.070 defense line shows no capital support signal.
ETH has dropped to 2240, the 2300 resistance has not been absorbed, and the linked volatility is weak.
The December rate hike expectation remains undecided, making this time window prone to locking volatility.
Volatility contraction will not last forever; the non-farm payroll release will trigger its expansion again.
Open your position list and check if your stop-loss can withstand the impact after volatility rises.
Focus on the 77000 level today.
$BTC $ETH $DOGE The altcoins are moving in tandem with Bitcoin, both weakening with synchronized fluctuations. After a short-term upward test, pressure caused a pullback. The resistance above is obvious, and there is a lack of sustained upward momentum after the rally. The market is tugging back and forth between bulls and bears; do not blindly chase longs. Wait for the rebound to reach the resistance zone before following the trend to look for a pullback.
Trading advice
Rebound pressure is expected in the 2295-2310 range; follow the trend to set up shorts, with targets initially at 2270-2250. If broken, continue to look down toward around 2230. #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ $BTC $ETH Toncoin ($TON)
📱 Messaging platforms and blockchain technology could create new ways for people to access digital services. Toncoin is connected to an ecosystem with a strong focus on Telegram-related applications. The challenge is turning a large potential audience into active blockchain users. Could messaging apps become the easiest gateway into crypto?BTC is currently at 77379.9, with MA20 at 80260.1.
Pressure hasn't broken; it's too early to talk about a reversal.
Strategy bought 811 BTC for 65.5 million USD, then used 208 million USD to repurchase preferred shares.
Where the money comes from and where it goes is very clear.
The treasury strategy has already split.
Strive increased holdings by 124 BTC, backed by 15% annualized SATS preferred share financing.
BitMine acquired 8573 ETH, bringing holdings to 6.06 million.
Metaplanet repaid 50.64 million USD debt, raising the coin purchase budget to 212 million.
Some are borrowing to expand the balance sheet, others are reducing burdens first.
They are not collectively pushing the market up; each is making their own allocation.
ETH is now down -0.52%, BTC down -0.37%.
Ethereum is weaker, and this is no coincidence.
Institutions are accumulating, but the market may not follow the rise.
When BTC turns, ETH usually crashes first; when BTC rebounds, ETH mostly follows.
It currently has no independent mainline, only dependency. $BTC $ETH #Strategy回购规模超购币三倍，财库策略转向？ The strength or weakness of the $BTC US dollar is the core anchor affecting BTC's medium- to long-term trend, and this US election will directly determine the future tone of US dollar monetary policy. If subsequent loose fiscal policies are implemented, it will likely suppress the US dollar index, benefiting BTC and other non-US scarce assets to rise; if it leans toward tightening regulation, it will temporarily suppress risk asset valuations.
Currently, the market is in an expectation game phase, with small fluctuations in the US dollar index driving BTC to oscillate back and forth, and the market's ups and downs completely follow macro sentiment. Compared to short-term fluctuations, more attention should be paid to the policy $ implementation pace after the election, which will determine BTC's overall trend direction in the fourth quarter. $ZEC $SOL CoinMarketCap's report says Bitcoin open interest contracts have dropped to a 12-month low of $284.1 billion
It sounds like the market has lightened up, but the remaining batch of longs are still paying an extremely expensive "toll" — the funding rate remains stuck at a 90-day high (about 0.93 basis points), even higher than the previous week
The total leverage has decreased, but the remaining position costs have become more expensive, and as soon as some fall, others immediately fill in
Spot $BTC ETFs have seen outflows of $859 million over nearly 6 trading days, with BlackRock's IBIT alone experiencing 10 consecutive days of outflows, totaling over $2.24 billion
However, whales are adding positions against the trend, with total holdings rising to 3.03 million coins, the fastest pace since February this year
The most critical level now is $76,000
This is the average cost line for short-term holders, whose unrealized gains are currently only about 2%. If these holders shift from slight profits to losses, it could easily trigger sell-offs
As long as the $76,000 barrier is not broken, the market will continue to grind within this narrow range; once broken, the next deep support zone is between $73,000 and $74,000
$BTC #BTC range consolidationSei ($SEI)
⚡ Trading-focused blockchain infrastructure is an interesting niche in the crypto market. Sei has been designed around performance and applications that need fast execution. Its long-term opportunity depends on active users and sustainable applications. Would you choose a specialized trading chain over a general-purpose blockchain?Staring at the K-line for half a day is not as useful as looking at today's news mentioning the "NU7 developer controversy".
This is the real reason behind ZEC's sharp drop.
Technical breakdowns can be charted, but a fundamental trust crisis is fatal.
The community is bickering over the developers' interests, and big investors seeing this kind of news react by retreating without regard to cost.
Look at the market: the price has plunged directly from the high of 1398 to 1195, with the moving averages above pressing down hard. Every very slight rebound is just supplying bullets to the bears.
Currently, 65% of the market is shorting, which shows that the smart money has long understood this game and is following the trend to push the price down.
The current 1195 is definitely not the bottom, just a resting point in the downtrend.
As long as it dares to weakly rebound, that will be our best opportunity to enter a high short position.
Face reality and don't fight the trend.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ $BTC The current BTC market has entered a typical policy-driven phase, with technical trends fully following the fluctuations of U.S. election public opinion and policy expectations. The crypto-friendliness of the campaign camps, attitudes toward digital currency regulation, and the direction of White House fiscal policy directly influence the institutional capital's position timing.
Historical cycle data shows that during the U.S. election window, global risk asset volatility tends to decline in phases, with capital preferring to lock in profits and reduce aggressive speculation. This is the core reason why BTC has struggled to break out of its range recently. In the short term, the market lacks clear negative catalysts to trigger a sell-off and also lacks strong catalysts for a breakout rally. Overall, it is mainly consolidating to digest positions and waiting for macro developments to materialize. $ETH $ZEC #Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？ As of Q2 2026, USDC circulation reached $73.3 billion, a 19% year-over-year increase; on-chain transaction volume hit $14.8 trillion, soaring 151% year-over-year. The numbers look impressive. But total revenue and reserve income in Q2 were only $701 million, up just 7% year-over-year.
Transaction volume rose 151%, but revenue only increased by 7%. The issue lies in the revenue structure: about 95% of Circle's income comes from interest on USDC reserves invested in short-term U.S. Treasury bonds, while transfer fees in Q2 were only $5.3 million — $14.8 trillion in transaction volume generated just $5.3 million in revenue. USDC has grown, but Circle still earns money from "U.S. Treasury bond coupons," not from the "stablecoin network effect."
The real profit bottleneck: distribution costs consume nearly 60% of revenue
In the first half of 2026, Circle generated about $1.4 billion in revenue, of which $819 million (nearly 59%) was directly paid to distribution partners and transaction costs. This means that for every $1 of revenue, only about 7 cents remain as net profit.A full review of my ICNT one-hour triple trade strategy: suitable for oscillation breakout + up-and-down retracement cycle trades
1. First, we can see the big trend is a box range oscillation. When I saw ® a large volume bullish candle breaking out of the box, I predicted this bullish candle wouldn't be a one-time explosion. After the breakout, there might be a chance for a pullback order block, so I prepared to place a long order in advance at 0.2243 (this position is the breakout order block/upper edge support of the box).
2. After placing the order, I noticed the price quickly surged, giving no chance for a pullback to place orders, so I immediately chased long at market price to ensure I didn't miss out.
BOS breakout, time to take profit!
3. After entering the long position: when the price hit a new high, I set a take profit for half the position to secure some gains—now I could confidently set a stop loss on the remaining half to ride the trend; just as I thought, it surged to a high then exhausted, showing a shooting star (which I've noticed several times while watching the market these days), a sign of stagnation, so I reversed to short and continued to profit!
4. Set the short target properly! It just hit the key support at 0.2243 again, took profit and exited perfectly; and this position was also where I had placed a long order in advance, so I entered long again.
Yay!
5. Finally, reviewing the trades, ICNT had three consecutive profitable waves: breakout long, high position short, support long again—three smooth transitions with good profits.
Dear friend! Follow me to take profits, have you learned it well?#Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？ Circle (CRCL) Short, Medium, and Long-Term Outlook
✅Short term 0–1 year: Interest rate competition dominates, fundamentals await earnings verification
The short-term focus is on Federal Reserve interest rates, USDC circulation scale, and cost control. The company's revenue heavily depends on reserve interest; in a rate cut environment, growth in USDC circulation is needed to offset declining yields, and distribution cost control is key to profitability. USDC's compliance advantage can retain institutional clients but faces fierce competition from USDT. The Q3 earnings report is a crucial test.
✅Medium term 1–3 years: Success depends on the second growth curve
The next 1–3 years are a transition window. Circle cannot remain just an interest-earning stablecoin issuer; the focus is on whether businesses like CPN payments, on-chain infrastructure, and real asset tokenization can take off to increase non-interest income share. Successful new business will lead to valuation reshaping; slow progress will firmly cap valuation, while also needing to guard against competition from traditional financial giants entering the space.
✅Long term 3+ years: Competing for digital dollar infrastructure influence
The long-term space comes from the trends of digital assets, cross-border settlement, and asset tokenization. Circle's biggest moat is its first-mover advantage and compliance qualifications, aiming to become the global digital dollar underlying infrastructure. The biggest risks come from various countries' CBDCs, large banks' proprietary stablecoins, and diverse regulatory policies worldwide. Whether it can solidify ecosystem standards will determine its long-term value. Celestia ($TIA)
🧩 Blockchain modularity is changing how developers think about building networks. Celestia focuses on data availability, allowing other blockchain systems to build with more flexibility. The idea could support a wider range of specialized chains. Do you believe modular blockchains are the future of Web3?There is a glaring short position of 250,000 $SOL on the $SOL chain, with the liquidation line at 123.
Below, large funds keep supporting the spot market, making it impossible to crash.
Such a huge target hanging overhead—how could the main players on the market possibly ignore it?
The shorts are still holding hard; as soon as there's a slight pull-up touching the edge, triggering forced liquidation, 250,000 buy orders will chase the market price to repurchase, all becoming fuel for an upward surge.
#SOL
$SOL
👇👇#Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？
Circle will release its earnings report before the market opens on November 4, with the core test being whether USDC's scale growth can translate into profits. Growth remains strong: USDC circulation is about $73.3 billion, up 19% year-over-year, with a market share of about 25%, driven by compliance and payment scenarios. However, the revenue side faces dual pressures: about 95% of income comes from reserve interest, with reserve yields having dropped from 4.16% to 3.5%. In Q1, circulation increased by 39% but reserve income only rose by 17%; distribution costs are high, with $405 million paid to partners in Q1 (about $330 million to Coinbase). In Q2, distribution costs accounted for 46% of revenue, leaving only about 7 cents net profit per $1 revenue in the first half of the year. Market expectations for Q3 revenue are $789 million to $797 million, with EPS of $0.38 to $0.40. Morgan Stanley is cautious, with a target price of $34 and a reduce rating, believing that slowing growth and rising distribution costs outweigh the benefits of forward yields; optimists also think a significant beat is unlikely, with the main theme still being "volume up, profit not up." Therefore, the key is not whether USDC's scale expands, but how much profit remains after incremental interest covers yield declines and revenue sharing; if scale growth slows, the vulnerability of the single-interest model becomes more prominent, making transformation progress more worth watching.U.S. stock perpetual contracts no longer need to be viewed only through offshore platforms.
The U.S. CFTC has approved the compliant listing of U.S. stock perpetual contracts in the U.S., marking the first time stock perpetuals enter the U.S. regulatory framework. For traders, compliance with margin, clearing, and investor protection is simultaneously accessible, which may increase the willingness of institutions and market makers to participate.
In the short term, the first-mover advantage of offshore platforms relying on listing stock perpetuals to attract traffic will be weakened, and similar contracts on platforms like Bitget may face diversion in trading volume and funding rates; in the medium to long term, the official acceptance of perpetuals as a leverage tool in the U.S. is a positive factor for the crypto derivatives narrative. Tokens without direct benefits should watch the scope of the first approved contracts, leverage limits, and launch timing.
If only the framework is approved but products are delayed, the hype will quickly fade. Are you more concerned about the list of underlying assets in the first batch of contracts, or whether compliant venues can build sufficient depth?
Source: BlockBeats