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History Will Not Simply Repeat: BTC's Midterm Election Narrative Anchored on Liquidity, Not Votes
BTC is currently trading around $76,700, about $3,300 short of the $80,000 mark; just a few trading days ago, the US spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a single-day net outflow of $643 million, the largest since late June. The convergence of election day and institutional capital "bleeding" in the same window forms the core tension in current pricing.
BTC bottoms after the last three midterm elections indeed occurred between two to two and a half years after halving, highly overlapping with bear market cycles. This means the so-called "election effect" itself cannot be causally inferred from these three samples. Bitwise's research director bluntly stated: so far, no statistically significant impact of midterm election probabilities on mainstream crypto asset performance has been found; by contrast, tightening financial conditions, inflation, and AI trading risks are more important variables.
The real transmission chain is not about who wins, but "Congress control → fiscal deficit path → interest rate expectations → US dollar." Glassnode data shows BTC's inverse correlation with the dollar is at its most negative level on record, and the dollar's strength is historically suppressing BTC. Bloomberg surveys confirm this: even under the "most crypto-friendly regulatory" blue wave scenario, most respondents do not believe BTC can break $100,000; and in the scenario of a Democratic sweep of both chambers, the year-end price median forecast is only $76,450. #Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？ USDC确实在长大，但长大的果实不全归Circle
As of Q2 2026, USDC circulation reached $73.3 billion, a 19% year-over-year increase; on-chain transaction volume hit $14.8 trillion, soaring 151% year-over-year. The numbers look impressive. But total revenue and reserve income in Q2 were only $701 million, up just 7% year-over-year.
Transaction volume rose 151%, but revenue only increased by 7%. The issue lies in the revenue structure: about 95% of Circle's income comes from interest on USDC reserves invested in short-term U.S. Treasury bonds, while transfer fees in Q2 were only $5.3 million — $14.8 trillion in transaction volume generated just $5.3 million in revenue. USDC has grown, but Circle still earns money from "U.S. Treasury bond coupons," not from the "stablecoin network effect."
The real profit bottleneck: distribution costs consume nearly 60% of revenue
In the first half of 2026, Circle generated about $1.4 billion in revenue, of which $819 million (nearly 59%) was directly paid to distribution partners and transaction costs. This means that for every $1 of revenue, only about 7 cents remain as net profit.$ETH in this market, just when I thought I could catch a breather, it immediately tests my mindset again.
I entered a long position nearby. Honestly, it's not that I think this is definitely the bottom, but since it rebounded from 2273.72, I was wondering if it could move further after a pullback. But looking at the market, ETH has returned to around 3.008, and this trade hasn't yet produced the rebound I wanted.
The 4-hour chart is more intuitive: it dropped from 2280 all the way down to 2245, rebounded to 2245 but was pushed down again. Now the price is around 3000, the Bollinger middle band is about 2260, and the lower band is about 30%. The price is still below the middle band, indicating that the short-term trend hasn't truly strengthened. First, let's see if it can hold around 2120; 3300 is the previous low. To recover, it needs to at least retake around 2245.
The news hasn't completely settled either. After the Binance security incident, although withdrawals have gradually resumed and the platform claims to have replenished most of the affected assets, issues with capital outflow and market confidence remain. Upcoming US employment data, political situations, and tech stock performance may also cause volatility. What I fear most now isn't a drop, but sudden spikes up and down triggered by news, shaking out both sides.
I don't want to stubbornly hold this position just by willpower. 2273 is my entry price, but that doesn't mean the market must rebound here. Whether it can retake 2245 and whether the rebound is sustainable are far more important than a few points of unrealized profit or loss. If the previous low breaks again, I definitely need to reassess and can't keep adding just because I'm unwilling to accept it.Conclusion first: $MVLL dropped 34.5% in 27 hours (19.89→13.03). The pitfall is not the drop itself, but in three numbers.
It is the GraniteShares 2x daily reset Marvell ETF perpetual. The underlying stock MRVL closed at 171.41 on 11-02 (-12.72%), and the ETF dropped 22.0% that day.
① Before the US stock market opened, the perpetual surged to 19.89, 10% higher than the ETF’s previous close of 18.05, with a volume of 2.32 million contracts worth about 41 million USD; one hour later, the ETF opened at 17.29 and closed at 13.49. When the underlying stock market is closed, the perpetual prices itself.
② During the crash, the funding fee still collected money from the longs: on 11-03, three periods were +0.019%, +0.024%, +0.036% (8 hours per period).
③ Position size increased against the trend: from 743,000 USD at 20:00 on 11-02 to 1,264,000 USD at 10:00 on 11-03 (+70%). Even after a 20% drop, new longs are entering.
2x daily reset × 10x leverage contracts, intraday volatility about 20 times the underlying stock; 480,000 contracts traded in 24 hours worth about 6.5 million USD, with only 37 contracts at the best bid of 13.45.
Despite such a drop, people still pay a 0.036% funding fee to chase longs. What exactly are you aiming for?#Circle財報在即，穩定幣成長能否轉化為收益？ $CRCL Q3 earnings report is about to be released, and this time I chose NO, meaning I am betting the earnings will not meet market expectations.
My core judgment is: revenue may not be bad, but there could be pressure on the profit side. $SOL Everyone is hyping $PLTR's revenue surge of 96%, but who noticed that new signed contracts (TCV) only increased by 6%?📉
To put it bluntly, is this really a high-margin AI giant, or just a "customized consulting company" disguised as software? Even big short-seller Burry believes that after stripping out the cost of on-site engineers, it simply can't justify a 155x PE.
Don't be fooled by the surface-level high growth. Looking at the technicals: the daily chart has already broken below the moving averages, 180-182 is the ceiling for any rebound, support below is at 165-169, and breaking 160 will lead straight down to 100.
The earnings beat expectations is just a "graceful retreat" for the bulls. Jumping in now is likely to catch a falling knife.🔪
Bulls see this as the "sovereign AI revolution," bears see it as "swimming naked when the tide goes out." What’s your take?👇
$PLTR #PalantirQ3营收增长96%，股价不涨反跌 Just canceled the limit order at 77,200 placed last night: BTC is now at 77,626, up only 0.1% in 24 hours, while on-chain active addresses and spot trading volume are both shrinking. This kind of "price unchanged, volume moves first" pattern, I've seen three times recently in this position algorithm—twice were tightening before false breakouts, once was sideways before a real drop. So today I proactively reduced my BTC position from 40% to 20%, and moved the stop loss from 75,800 up to 76,400—not bearish, just don't want to catch chips for others at this level.
ETH is relatively more worth watching: 2,298, up 1.0% in 24 hours, outperforming BTC by nearly one point. Among altcoins, BMT is +21.2% in a single day; I basically don't chase these pulses, my own record is 3 wins and 7 losses when chasing, no need. If I really want to participate, I'd rather see if ETH can hold above 2,340 before deciding to add.
The key divergence here isn't price direction, but "whether to reduce position during volume contraction." My answer is to reduce, because the algorithm only recognizes volatility, not stories. The review at 06:00 this morning showed a 1.8% account drawdown, and I'm writing honestly.
At this level, are you reducing positions waiting for a pullback, or adding to bet on a breakout?
Follow me for daily public real-position and stop loss logic, losses included, all honestly shared.
#OKXProphet #BTCSpotETFOutflows
High probability of $BTC rising by November 8.
Despite this, we have 2 camps: those who support the concept and those who are for price dumping.
So far, the gap is not large. #闪迪业绩超预期并宣布拆股，股价跌逾13% Behind the 6.3 billion turmoil, still holding chips worth one billion 😂
On one side, news of a 6.3 billion loss spreads; on the other, holding shares originally bought for 500 million, now worth 1 billion, with no plans to sell.
The price surged to 142.22 but couldn't hold, falling back to hover repeatedly around 137.
The root cause of this round of adjustment is not petty disputes but the collective weakness of US tech stocks.
It's hard to decide at this position now; need to wait for tonight's US stock market direction.
Open the position list, check the distance from the pending order to the 137.57 level.
$BTC $ETH $SOL Why keep government bonds just sitting in the account when you can move them onto the blockchain?
Société Générale in France gave a straightforward answer: $10 million in U.S. government bonds were transferred to the counterparty as collateral through DTCC's tokenization service. The business lead said it plainly, just one sentence: "It demonstrated that tokenized collateral can be transferred among market participants."
It sounds like nonsense, but it's actually the key point. The hardest part about collateral isn't having it, but that it can't be moved. Locked in a custodian bank, if you want to use it for another transaction, you have to go through a whole process; after tokenization, it becomes a certificate that can be directly transferred.
On the other hand, native assets like $BTC are simple—they are inherently transferable. The real hassle is always with the old money assets dressed in suits.最脆弱的一环从来不是价格，是杠杆叠得太满的衍生品仓位。 这波下跌，究竟是谁在被迫交出筹码？ 这两天看盘有一种很微妙的感觉：现货还没彻底慌，衍生品那头已经先绷不住了。$BTC 一度跌破 76,500，触发约 11 亿美元已实现亏损，短线持有者基本是举白旗的状态。更关键的是，美国现货 BTC ETF 单日净流出 6.432 亿美元，10 月累计回撤 7.3%，是 2016 年以来最弱的一个 10 月。资金偏好在变，不是慢慢转，是带着情绪地撤。 我盯的不是跌幅，是结构。稳定币供应在收缩，意味着场内的"子弹"变少了；而黑客把数千万美元 $SOL 换成 $BTC 的动作，又给价格添了一层说不清的抛压来源。这种时候，资金费率一旦转负、持仓却还堆着，就容易出现挤压：空头爽一阵，但任何反抽都会被放大成踩踏式回补。 $ETH 那边同样矛盾。后量子升级预期排到 2029 年，链上还托着过半稳定币，基本面故事不差；可现货 ETH ETF 连续 23 天净流出，资金成本一路走低，卖方明显在押注更深的回撤。FBI 把黑客指向朝鲜，被盗资产又往 ETH 上搬去洗，叙事和筹码搅在一起，短期很难给干净的方向。 $SO① BTC 76,000 is the watershed level; breaking it points to 73,000. Holding above maintains consolidation; breaking below may trigger short-term holders' stop-loss selling. The fee rate hasn't turned negative, deleveraging isn't complete, so the mid-level remains unchanged. Short scenario reference: around 76,100, take profit at 71,485.
② ETH 2,170 is the support below, 2,390 is the resistance above. Current price 2,253 is stuck in the middle, chasing shorts has a poor risk-reward ratio. Short scenario reference: around 2,150, stop loss at 2,200, take profit at 2,015. Long premise: volume-driven stop of decline at 2,200 + BTC holding 76K.
③ Macro dual variables: midterm elections + Friday's nonfarm payrolls. JPMorgan baseline scenario: Democrats sweep probability 66%, S&P 500 reaction between -0.25% and +0.5%, market already priced in, don't bet on surprises. Fidelity expects 25bp hikes in December and March next year. Friday's nonfarm payrolls are the real pricing anchor this week.
In short: The election result is already priced in by the market; nonfarm payrolls are the real test. Don't chase shorts before 76,000 breaks; don't bottom-fish before 2,200 holds. Wait for data, wait for signals. $BTC $ETH$BTC Market Analysis
After the decline, Bitcoin confirmed the highs and lows. The high of 78776 was touched yesterday. If the low of 76270 is pierced today, there is one more long opportunity. It is currently at a wave point low and near daily support, making going long more cost-effective than going short.
Resistance levels above: 78776, 79500
Support levels below: 76270, 74800$BICO/USDT is fighting against its own momentum.
$BICO/USDT - Bearish · Confidence 95% 🟢
Trading plan:
Entry: 0.01507 – 0.01511
Stop Loss: 0.01525
TP1: 0.01497
TP2: 0.01489
TP3: 0.01477
Why choose this setup?
- 1D trend is bearish, but 15m RSI is neutral at 51.18.
- MACD histogram is fading while price is above the lens.
Discussion:
Should we target TP1 here or wait for TP3?
$BICO
#BICO $BTC
⚠️ For personal market analysis only. Not financial advice - please manage risk and do your own research. The derivatives tape is telling a more interesting story than spot prices. $BTC is holding near $77,799, down 0.11% over 24 hours and pinned between a $78,866 high and a $77,600 low, yet its buy-sell ratio has climbed to 2.36 from 2.23 four hours earlier. Open interest stands at 33,494 coins, roughly $2.606 billion. In the last 75 minutes, 100 liquidations split into $488,000 of longs and $339,000 of shorts — buyers, not sellers, are being flushed. That asymmetry matters. When longs get wrung ouSociété Générale transferred $10 million of U.S. Treasury bonds to a counterparty through DTCC's tokenization service, with Canton Network providing the network. The amount is not large, but this is the first time a systemically important bank has truly moved Treasury bonds as on-chain collateral.
Why is this noteworthy? The old problem in the collateral market is "illiquidity." Treasury bonds are the highest quality collateral globally, but once they are held in a custodian, moving them to serve as margin for another transaction requires a full process of reconciliation, confirmation, and settlement, and cross-institution exposure is unclear.
Tokenization turns these bonds into on-chain certificates. When the certificate moves, ownership moves simultaneously, and the status can be checked in real time. So the seemingly plain statement from Salim Nemouchi, Head of Americas Global Equity at Société Générale, is key: this transaction demonstrates that tokenized collateral can be transferred between market participants. Transferability is what creates liquidity.
Canton Network's statement is also worth noting: the service initially focuses only on U.S. Treasury bonds held by DTCC members and custodied at DTC. The scope is deliberately narrow, starting with the most standardized and legally clear instruments before expanding outward.
Compared to native assets like $BTC, the difference is this: coins are inherently on-chain, while Treasury bonds must first be converted into an on-chain format. No one facilitates this step for traditional funds, so they cannot enter. The $10 million is a low-cost pilot; the highlight will be the scale of the next transaction.In the past 7 days, Binance platform has had a total withdrawal of 15.1 billion USD. $BNB
In the past 24 hours, the inflow of funds has slightly decreased by 2.4 billion USD.
This is a huge number, but still not as high as during FTX in 2022, when confidence in CEX exchanges plummeted.
Binance's total assets still remain above 100 billion USD, reaching 124.83 billion USD.The overlooked trio, each with its own storyline (￣▽￣)~*
The market has indeed been quiet these days; no one is paying attention to the ups and downs of $STRK, $NEAR, and $BCH, as if they've been forgotten in a corner (´･ω･`)
STRK is hovering around its yearly low of 0.10–0.11. Breaking away from Ethereum to become a quantum-resistant L1 sounds grand, but essentially it's a long-term gamble (｡•́︿•̀｡). The short-term on-chain incentives are just a little sugar that can't satisfy the selling pressure; with no organic buying, the price can only lie flat.
NEAR is relatively tougher. Accounts can directly upgrade to quantum resistance, and the AI Agent has partnered with NVIDIA, so the storyline isn't bad (ง •̀_•́)ง. The price is holding support around 4.00–4.20, with RSI just above 40, but no sign of a bottom yet. The technicals are more honest than the price—if 4.00 doesn't break, consider it still range-bound; the drop is due to macro factors, the logic remains intact (￣ω￣).
BCH is the most boring, grinding around 284. CME futures are up, the BCHG spot ETF S-3 filing is progressing, institutional channels are being paved one by one, but it has the worst elasticity (－_－) zZ. No get-rich-quick narrative here; it's fine for allocation, but don't expect it to lead a charge.
In this overlooked market, each has its own way to endure. STRK bets on the future, NEAR holds support, BCH lays the groundwork—who will break out first? No one knows, but at least none have collapsed (◔‿◔)The price surge of $BTC to 78,000 tonight was so exciting. The trading volume of that one 1-hour candlestick reached 46,000. However, it closed as a Pin Bar, leaving a long wick above. Despite such a large volume, it couldn't hold the price, indicating a high-level volume stagnation. The price not only failed to stay high but also gave back most of the gains.
In the past few hours, the price tried to push up again. Several 15-minute bullish candles moved upward, but the trading volume kept shrinking. The price was rising, but the volume was decreasing, showing a mismatch between volume and price. A rebound lacking volume support cannot sustain the follow-up bullish momentum. Even a slight selling pressure makes it hard for the price to advance.
Looking at the daily chart, the 78,000 level is exactly a daily resistance. The 4-hour EMA lines are also in a bearish alignment, with major resistance above. The recent volume surge failed to break through, and now with shrinking volume, it's even harder to overcome the pressure.
I personally lean bearish. The current price is hitting key daily resistance with heavy selling pressure above. Without volume to absorb large sell orders, breaking resistance is difficult. I expect a high probability of a downward pullback next.
$ETH $SOL #AMD财报前瞻：HeliosAI系统商业化进展 Tonight, the crypto world might face an epic case of "paying to suffer."
I just took a quick look at the real-time odds for the midterm elections, and I really feel for the industry bigwigs.
Not long ago, the crypto industry painstakingly raised $176 million in political donations, spending heavily on lobbying everywhere, hoping that after the elections the CLARITY Act would pass, giving us a more relaxed regulatory environment.
But before the results come in tonight, reality just slapped us hard: prediction markets show the Democrats' chance of taking the House has soared to 95%.
What does this mean? Bloomberg did the math directly: if the Democrats sweep both chambers, the median year-end Bitcoin price prediction crashes to 76,450; if it's a split Congress, it's 84,100; only if the Republicans win outright can it reach 90,800.
$176 million in cold hard cash spent, and it looks like we're buying the worst-case scenario.
Bitcoin is still below 80,000 now, just one breath away. I haven't opened a single position yet—not because I'm not tempted by this volatility, but because I'm afraid that after tonight's results, there will be a straight guillotine cut.
$SOL $BTC $ETH #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ $FIL brothers, FIL looks really weak this round, stuck at 0.885 and can't break through no matter what, clearly under heavy pressure, might even have a big drop coming, brothers.
This rally looks more like a brief bull trap. Looking at the whale data, bears dominate the majority, short positions massively outweigh longs, and the bears are currently very strong.
Based on this trend, the first target is 0.8. Even if it falls to this level, it will probably be hard to hold. Most likely, it will just briefly consolidate and shake out before continuing downward, first testing 0.7. If support fails there, 0.6 is also possible to reach.
This coin has been steadily declining recently, with very weak rebounds. Every pump just gives bears an entry opportunity. The bulls' confidence has long been lost. Now, following the trend to be bearish is completely reasonable. Small and large non-farm payrolls are coming, and the market is waiting for the data
The rhythm this week is clear: small non-farm on Wednesday, large non-farm on Friday, and the rate decision on December 13. CME currently prices about a 75% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike in December. To change this probability, we need to watch these two data releases.
$BTC at 77622, dipped to 76450 during the day, climbed back at night, just shy of 78000. But at 78204, 16.8 million is at 0.75%, with layers of resistance at 78786 and 79174, no new volume, so 78000 is hard to hold. Underfoot, 75681 has 51.8 million waiting at -2.5%.
$ETH at 2301, back above 2300, but fluctuated several times today at this level. 10.6 million is pressing at 2376, with support at 2244 and 2215. It’s oscillating within the range, indecisive, fully dependent on Bitcoin. The fear and greed index is still at 26, just one point away from extreme fear; sentiment hasn’t recovered.
$SOL at 93.77, bounced back from around 91, 90 hasn’t broken for now, but 6 million is pressing at 97.29, so the rebound space is limited.
With data not yet released, I don’t consider this grinding upward rebound a reversal to chase.
#美国10月非农前瞻：就业增长或牵动12月加息预期 Behind BEAT's Slight Rise: Financing Costs Quietly Increasing 📈
BEAT is currently trading around 0.10121, with a 3.0% increase drawing many people's attention to the "bull continuation," but they overlook the changing holding costs. The latest financing rate is 0.0125%, up from the previous 0.0115%, meaning that for every additional period a long position is held, higher fees must be paid. 💸
This does not directly negate the price increase but will slowly wear down the bulls' patience. If the price continues to rise and the financing rate keeps climbing, be wary of the falsification signal of "price can rise but holding becomes exhausting." ⚠️
In terms of operation, don't just look at the candlesticks. Open the position list, check the size of BEAT long positions, calculate how long the ongoing financing costs can be sustained, and then decide whether to reduce positions or set proper exit conditions. 🧾✅Maywell plans a stock swap acquisition of Lumentum to strengthen AI optical communications, indicating that tech capital is still leaning towards computing infrastructure. This mildly supports risk appetite, but the coin price has not yet followed suit. I judge the short term to still be a zero-sum game. The four-hour level is weak, down 8.07% from the high; the one-hour is rising but only 1.14% below the peak; current price 77682.7, slightly up 0.2%, with a turnover of 7.207 million, relatively light. The top 10 bid-ask ratio is 3.37, with noticeably strong buy orders; the funding rate of 0.01% shows lukewarm bullish sentiment. You can lightly go long at 77385 with a stop loss at 76940 and a target of 78460; if it rises to around 78490 and stalls, go short with a stop loss at 78920 and a target of 77720. Single trade risk should not exceed 1.5% of total funds; exit immediately if broken.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wish you successful trading. —
$BTC#迈威尔拟换股收购Lumentum，加码AI光通信布局
#迈威尔拟换股收购Lumentum，加码AI光通信布局
$BTC 🚨 BTC Touched $76,400, But Where Are The Buyers?
Bitcoin hit the retracement level I mentioned yesterday, but I'm not celebrating just yet.
Yes, we saw a few bullish candles around $76,500. But look closer — where is the volume? Where is the strong buying pressure?
A few green candles and a long wick don't automatically mean a real recovery.
Right now, the market feels like you're waiting for a reply and all you get is a dry "hmm." 😂
#BTC #ETH #ZEC #CryptoMarket #Bitcoin
#DailyOrbit $BTC is experiencing positioning issues.
Spot buyers are involved.
But derivatives traders are still selling.
Latest data from Glassnode:
→ Spot CVD: -$78.6 million → +$25.3 million
→ Perpetual funding subsidy: -$381.7 million → -$564.8 million
→ Funding for long positions: +40.5% to $3.1 million/day
This is contradictory:
Spot demand is improving, while leveraged traders remain in a defensive stance.
Is AI wrong?
Let's see if spot buying can absorb the ongoing sell-off—or if crowded long positions will become the next forced liquidation source.The intraday market continued the downward momentum from Monday, falling back to around 76400 before breaking above to around 77800, perfectly fulfilling the 1200+50⚡️ range during the day.
Early Wednesday:
Around 77300-76800↑, targeting around 78300-78800.
Around 2278-2258↑, targeting around 2325-2355.
$BTC $ETH $BTC hackers dumped the market, exchanges withdrew 4.7 billion, and even the ETF dumped 640 million in one day, which normally would have crashed the market to who knows where.
But BTC stubbornly held at 77,000 and couldn't be pushed down.
The bears threw out all the nuclear weapons they could use, yet the price still hovered mid-level. This kind of market that can't be pushed down is a typical case of bad news fully priced in, and the funds bottom-fishing off-market are probably squeezing their hands to bits.
#BTC
$BTC
👇Leverage long-short ratio is 22:1, how should this signal be interpreted?
Bitcoin borrowed for long positions is 1507.55 coins, while borrowed for short positions is only 68.89 coins; for $SOL, the disparity is even greater, with 129,900 coins long versus 3,148 coins short. Dividing these gives 22 times and 41 times respectively.
The calculation is simple: borrowed coins used with leverage to buy means going long; borrowed coins sold immediately expecting a drop means going short. Dividing the two yields the degree of crowding.
The real meaning of this calculation is not in the numbers themselves, but in the chip structure. A one-sided long position indicates that basically all the leverage funds that could enter the market have done so. Without new buying support following, if the price shakes a bit, the first to exit will be those who borrowed money to open positions—they have the highest cost and the most fragile psychology.
But note, this crowding cleans out leverage, not spot holdings. Long-term holders don’t need to move their positions because what gets shaken out is borrowed money, not your coins. Clearing leverage actually makes the base more solid.
What really needs caution is: when everyone thinks the direction is certain, the damage from reverse fluctuations is greatest. It’s not that the direction is wrong, but that the crowding on the vehicle is too dense, and those who can’t keep their balance when braking are the first to fall out. #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ #PalantirQ3营收增长96%，股价不涨反跌 Order Book Strength Ranking
5-minute median slippage, estimated by order book
$APR Large buy order cost decreases, sell order cost increases. Simulated slippage for 100k scale buy/sell changed from 3.21%/0.66% to 2.02%/0.77%. Compared to the previous window, one side's cost rises while the other's falls.
$PONS Large buy order cost increases, small buy order cost remains almost unchanged. Simulated slippage for 100k scale buy increased from 0.87% to 0.99%. 10k buy remains about 0.12%. When costs worsen, adjust order size, not directional view.
$AKE After amplifying orders, slippage on both buy and sell sides significantly increases. Simulated slippage for 10k scale buy/sell is 0.17%/0.12%, for 100k is 0.90%/0.81%. This is a cost table, not direction; simultaneous cost increase on both sides indicates overall shallow depth.Tomorrow is very likely to be a typical "event-driven spike day." $BTC $ETH $SNDK
The midterm election vote counts will come out gradually; the critical window is from the morning to noon Beijing time on November 4, but the Senate swing states may not be clear for a few days. During this "undecided result" phase, volatility itself is the biggest product.
BTC options implied volatility has already jumped to 43.5%, indicating the market is buying hedging insurance rather than betting on a single direction. Coupled with ongoing ETF outflows and the lingering effects of the Binance hack, liquidity is thin, so spikes up and down to sweep stop losses will be frequent.
In terms of the election, the Democrats have a high probability of taking the House, while the Senate remains uncertain. If a "split Congress" forms, major bills won’t pass, and policy uncertainty will actually decrease, which historically isn’t bad for the stock market. But for the crypto space, crypto-friendly legislation will slow down, and short-term will be more about emotional volatility.
Operationally, don’t chase spikes tomorrow. After the spikes up and down, see if demand can hold; if it stabilizes, then talk about a rebound; if not, continue treating it as a range-bound market. Leave room in your position and wait for the results to become clear before making moves. #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ Why can hackers breach Binance, Bybit, and Bitget, but never touch Coinbase? 🧵👇
They have securely stored 959,000 bitcoins, worth as much as $103.31 billion, safely for 14 years without incident.
1. No giant honeypot: 69.8 million independent user deposit addresses
Most exchanges, to speed up withdrawals, consolidate tens of billions of funds into a few hot wallets.
Once hackers breach operational permissions, they can sweep all assets at once.
Coinbase’s logic is completely different. It uses MPC (Multi-Party Computation) security, with no complete private key existing; private keys are split into fragments and stored separately in independent hardware chips.
The 69.8 million addresses are not wallets storing Coinbase’s own funds but are exclusive deposit addresses assigned individually to users.
Coinbase’s real funds are still centrally stored in official hot and cold wallet systems.
But this mechanism remains unbreakably secure:
In October 2026, hackers breached Binance’s operational computer, hijacked hot wallet signing permissions, and stole $6.36 billion in 20 minutes.
However, at Coinbase, even if hackers infiltrate employee computers, they only get fragmented, invalid key shards, making it impossible to sign and transfer assets.The pattern of the last three midterm elections has been broken by Bitcoin this year
$BTC
Tonight, American voters head to the polls. The first vote counts will be released during the Asian trading session on Wednesday.
While waiting for the results, let's talk about a data pattern that few people have noticed.
In the last three U.S. midterm election days (2014, 2018, 2022), Bitcoin was always below the 200-day moving average—35%, 9%, and 22% below this line respectively. To translate: Bitcoin was in a bear market during the past three midterms.
This year is different. Currently, BTC is about $76,900, 5.2% above the 200-day moving average (around $73,169). The long-term trend line is still underfoot.
All three historical samples showed "weakness before the election," but the fourth time shows "strength before the election"—is this a change in the pattern or just noise? Don't rush to conclusions; let's break down the data.
First, let's look at the reason for the "anomaly"
This year's bear market looks different from the previous three: the drop was shallow and early—mainly concentrated in January and February, after which the price center repeatedly built between $70,000 and $80,000. By election day, the price had already climbed halfway out of the pit, naturally standing above the 200-day moving average.
In other words, it's not that the price surged this year, but that it fell early. Different positions lead to different starts.
Now, let's look at the truly valuable part of the pattern
Martin Lee, head of research at DWF Labs, reviewed a more interesting statistic: in the first few months after midterm elections, Bitcoin usually oscillates or leans slightly bearish; but in the following 12 months, it rose in all three cases.
There is clear logic behind this script: elections bring policy uncertainty → capital waits on the sidelines → uncertainty disappears after results are finalized → liquidity reprices risk assets. No matter how Congress changes, the landing of the boot itself is positive—the biggest enemy of the market is uncertainty.
Two possible vote outcomes, two scripts
- Republicans hold Congress: crypto-friendly legislation (such as the "Clarity Act") continues to advance, regulatory discount improves, benefits are directly realized
- Democrats flip control: short-term suppression of risk appetite, but the market also has another interpretation—the policy focus may shift to ending geopolitical conflicts, lowering oil prices and inflation, which may not be entirely negative for risk assets
Note, neither script is one-sided. This is why election night often sees "initial spikes followed by direction setting"—algorithms and short-term funds first sweep out stop losses on both sides.
My view
Short term: volatility on election night is certain, direction is uncertain. The $73,000 level (200-day moving average) below $77,000 is a position bulls must defend; if broken, the "strong start" story falls apart.
Mid to long term: although the sample of three elections with 12 months of subsequent gains is small, the logic is consistent. If prices dip then rebound after this election, the historical pattern will likely rhyme again.
Data won't make decisions for you, but it can help you know what to watch when others panic.
Do you think Bitcoin will replay the "oscillate for a few months, then rise for 12 months" script after this election? Leave your judgment in the comments.
(Personal opinion, not investment advice.)
#BTC #MidtermElection #HistoricalPattern #MarketAnalysis今天宇树暴涨 18%，我的多空策略也赚了一点点，我是怎么操作的呢？（喂饭教学） 和做多 Tesla 做空 SpaceX 一样，我是做多宇树，同时等额做空长鑫存储，原因如下： - 和之前分析的一样宇树和长鑫的流通比例差不多，短时间内没有新的流通盘，但是看空情绪严重，从上市跌了 60%，跌无可跌了 - 长鑫不一样，他是在高点横盘很长一段时间，但是明年初就要解锁了，这就是强撑，而且还被 AI 大盘拖累 所以做多宇树，做空长鑫比较舒服，也可以加个几倍杠杆，资金利用效率贼高BTC dropped to 76400 intraday, but I really can't get excited at all. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
The retracement level I mentioned yesterday was hit, but take a close look at today's market. That strong demand on the smaller scale simply hasn't appeared.
It feels like what? Like you're waiting for a reply from someone, but all you get is a "hmm."
There were indeed a few bullish candles around 76500, but what about the volume? Not much. Don't shout rebound just because of a wick; the demand hurdle He Yipiao revealed a figure: In 2026, Binance's security team intercepted 57 suspected cyber threats linked to North Korea.
Notably, the methods were not technical vulnerabilities. Fake recruitment, malware, malicious packages and browser extensions, fake video conferences, social engineering—none of these five categories involved on-chain attacks; they all targeted people. Attackers don't need to crack private keys, they just need to convince an employee that the other side is a recruiter.
This is the real state of security battles at exchanges today. Over the past decade, the industry has focused budgets on cold wallets, multisig, and code audits, which are relatively mature; but the scale of 57 incidents shows the remaining gap lies with people. A fake interview link or a backdoored meeting software can bypass all cryptography.
For ordinary holders, the criteria must also change. Don't just look at how much reserve an exchange announces; see if it manages "people" as risk assets: whether internal permissions are tiered, employee devices are isolated, and social engineering drills are routine.
Another point worth considering: the state-level background of these attacks means they won't end after a single interception. The 57 cases are interception counts, not occurrence counts. Security has shifted from a one-time project to a long-term operational cost—whoever bears this cost more robustly will have a more stable market in the long run.$BTC This midterm election essentially represents the market's pricing of the Trump administration's fiscal, regulatory, and geopolitical policies, with the core focus on the power structure of Congress. Three scenarios correspond to completely different asset logics. Priority should be on the control of both chambers: the House of Representatives is widely expected by the market to be taken by the Democrats, while the Senate remains more uncertain. The vote counting pace in swing states like Alaska, Maine, Ohio, and Texas will directly stir the market. If Democrats only take the House and Republicans hold the Senate, this is the most familiar split Congress scenario for the market: fiscal expansion is blocked, new tax cut bills are unlikely to pass, US debt supply pressure eases, and debt ceiling brinkmanship risk rises. Historically, this environment tends to favor US stocks, with moderate tech regulation pace. If Democrats sweep both chambers, expectations for investigations, AI regulation, and tighter corporate taxes will quickly rise. Computing power and AI growth sectors may come under pressure, while there will be expectations of a softer stance on Iran, causing geopolitical premiums on oil prices to further decline. Conversely, if Republicans hold both chambers, fiscal stimulus, tariff increases, and energy deregulation policies will face little resistance, inflation stickiness expectations will rise, reinforcing a hawkish Fed pricing, and US Treasury yields are likely to rise. Beyond Congress, the results of swing state governors should not be overlooked, as they will determine the rules for immigration, energy, and industry implementation in each state over the next two years and will also serve as a barometer for the 2028 presidential election. Attention should also be paid to tail risks such as voting disputes and delayed counting; if disputes arise, short-term safe-haven buying will push up the dollar and gold. #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ $BTC Everyone is still hoping Strategy will keep buying to support the price, but this big player is running out of money.
The available cash on hand has sharply dropped to 130 million, and the remaining reserves are all locked up to pay high interest.
At the current burn rate, they can hold on for at most two more weeks before stopping.
Once the largest buy-side ammunition in the market is cut off, relying solely on retail liquidity is nowhere near enough to absorb the selling pressure, so don't expect the price to hold up anymore.
#BTC
$BTC
👇Not just "metaphysics": Looking at the midterm election $BTC cycle bottom from a technical structure perspective
Many posts treat "bottoming after the midterm election" as a rule, but I think it's more worthwhile to analyze the underlying market structure and liquidity logic. Putting 2014 / 2018 / 2022 together, you can actually see a clear chain:
Election uncertainty → Risk premium rises → Leverage liquidation/liquidity exhaustion → Rapid bottom search → Macro liquidity shift → New round of expansion.
From a technical perspective, these types of bottoms usually share common characteristics:
1. Weekly RSI extremely oversold with divergence
It's not just about falling a lot, but the decline slows down and momentum no longer hits new lows.
2. Volume structure: high volume sell-off → low volume sideways → high volume reversal
After panic selling releases, if selling pressure quickly dries up, the bottom is often near.
3. Key moving averages/on-chain cost zone support
The $3,200 in 2018 and $15,500 in 2022 are not random numbers; they correspond to miner costs, long-term holder costs, and liquidity concentration zones.
4. Extreme market sentiment
Around the midterm elections, macro narratives combined with regulatory/fiscal expectations tend to create a "final drop." U.S. stocks are on a big bargain sale 😹 Last night, fortunately, Brother 800 escaped a disaster, but this morning, the triple-leveraged Philadelphia Semiconductor index dropped another 10% $SOXL, and Brother 800 chose to go long at 69.59 after hours 🙀🙀🙀 Hopefully this time it's really a solid bottom. In a few days, there's also the AMD earnings report, which is related to semiconductors. Personally, I think it's somewhat positive #AMD财报前瞻：HeliosAI系统商业化进展
$SKHY 147.75,
$SNDK 1090.9.
The previous surge to 82.93 was a classic bull trap. At that time, seeing the sector warming up, many bulls rushed in to lay ambushes, but now the bears are dumping with volume, and everyone is trapped.
The movements of the three are highly correlated. SOXL is triple-leveraged, so the decline is magnified; Hynix and SanDisk, as core storage stocks, are weakening in sync.
This is now a downward continuation pattern with heavy resistance above: SOXL's first resistance is 78.76, Hynix's resistance is 154.96, and SanDisk's resistance is 1143.2.
Short-term support: SOXL 69.36, Hynix 147.66, SanDisk 1090.2. Once support breaks, a new round of downside space will open.
Previously, we always hoped earnings would bring positive surprises, but the market no longer buys into positive logic. Macro pressures are weighing on tech stocks, and all good news is treated as an opportunity to sell. In this kind of market, high-leverage long positions have very low error tolerance; rebounds are more opportunities to cut losses and exit. Don't rush to add positions to lower your cost.Midterm elections might be the last leg???
$TRUMP
From the historical high of $83 down to now, a drop of over 96%, nearly a million wallets have cumulatively lost $3.8 billion, while Trump himself cashed out over $600 million. Is this data heartbreaking enough?
Essentially, it's selling a narrative, and narratives have a shelf life; once expired, they're worthless. Previously, Mar-a-Lago dinners, airport renaming—each time it was buying the expectation and selling the reality, pumping then dumping.
Tomorrow is midterm election day. Regardless of who wins or loses, once the shoe drops, the breath supporting the price will dissipate. History has proven this countless times, so manage your positions reasonably.Prices haven't moved, yet SOL has the most liquidations
The three coins' price changes are all within 1%, long-short ratios all declined, but SOL has the most liquidations.
$BTC: Slight drop, long-short ratio falling
Current price $77,610.6, down 0.36% in 24 hours. Long-short ratio 2.63, 4 hours ago 2.75, decreased. Open interest about 2.588 billion U. In the last 130 minutes, 100 liquidation orders: longs 219,000 U, shorts 141,000 U.
$ETH: The only one in the green, largest drop in long-short ratio
Current price $2,296.76, up 0.38% in 24 hours. Long-short ratio 2.11, 4 hours ago 2.36, largest decrease. Open interest about 1.472 billion U. In the last 108 minutes, 100 liquidation orders: longs 95,000 U, shorts 169,000 U.
$SOL: Price dropped slightly, most liquidations
Current price $93.65, down 0.51% in 24 hours. Long-short ratio 3.32, 4 hours ago 3.39, decreased. Open interest about 336 million U. Funding rate -0.0004%, shorts pay longs. In the last 206 minutes, 100 liquidation orders: longs 573,000 U, shorts 642,000 U.
Commentary: Long-short ratios all declined, SOL remains above 3.3, liquidations split evenly between longs and shorts, with the largest amounts.
Summary: Prices are stable, liquidations concentrated in SOL—are both sides taking hits, or are longs not fully squeezed out yet? Watch if 90.87 holds. For record-keeping only, not investment advice.
#加密行业协同守护资产安全 🚨 Stop using past bear market patterns to predict Bitcoin in 2026! $BTC
Recently, there's been a saying in the market: after the US midterm elections, Bitcoin tends to decline, so now is not the time to touch contracts, let alone use leverage.
But I think judging future trends solely based on historical years has significant problems.
What really matters is not whether BTC rises or falls after the election, but what differences exist in the market structure during each cycle.
📉 Looking back at the past three cycles:
2014: Bitcoin was in a long-term downtrend, the 200-day moving average kept declining, and the price was always suppressed by the moving average, with no clear reversal signals.
2018: The market was also in a deep bear market, the downtrend remained unchanged, buying lacked sustainability, and the overall structure was still weak.
2022: The downtrend was still obvious, the long-term moving average was not recovered, and the market did not show strong enough trend reversal signals.
So, what about 2026?
This is the most worthy topic for discussion!
🔥 This year's market structure has shown notable changes:
Bitcoin once broke through the key downtrend line and climbed back above the long-term moving average, indicating the market structure is not exactly the same as in previous bear phases.
Of course, a breakout does not necessarily mean entering a bull market, and a retest of the annual moving average still needs to be observed for effective support.
What I pay more attention to are three signals:
1️⃣ Can effective support form near the annual moving average? #Circle財報在即，穩定幣成長能否轉化為收益？ 💰 USDC 持續成長，Circle 財報就一定會超預期？
Circle (CRCL) is about to release its Q3 earnings! This time, I'm more focused not on the scale of USDC issuance, but on whether growth can truly translate into profit.
📊 Three key points to watch:
① Can the continuous expansion of USDC circulation drive revenue growth?
② Will interest rate changes and profit-sharing costs squeeze profits?
③ Can the Arc blockchain and payment business create new revenue streams?
🔍 My view:
Growth in the stablecoin market does not necessarily mean profits will increase in tandem. The real decisive factors in this earnings report are USDC scale, reserve income, and distribution costs!
⚠️ If revenue grows but profit margins cannot be maintained, the market may reassess CRCL's valuation.
🔥 Currently, about 40% of the community expects an earnings beat, while 60% are pessimistic.
📣 Do you think Circle will deliver a surprising earnings report, or have the positives already been priced in?
#Circle #CRCL #USDC #穩定幣 #美股財報季 #OKXFrom late October to early November 2026, XPL underwent a severe deleveraging. The drop within 24 hours reached 12%–13% at one point, with 30 candlesticks showing a volatility amplitude of about 24%, making it one of the most volatile assets in its category. Trigger factors included coordinated margin withdrawal by related wallets (over 2 million USDC), long position liquidations causing liquidity to dry up, and an instantaneous price plunge of about 18%.
Technical indicators entered a typical oversold + sentiment bottom combination:
RSI dropped to the 30–33 range, approaching or entering the oversold zone;
The Fear and Greed Index fell to 26–34, within the “Fear” range;
Price hovered near the lower Bollinger Band, but the MACD histogram showed signs of turning positive in some time frames, indicating a weakening downward momentum.
However, one detail is worth noting: despite the sharp price drop, the funding rate remained positive (+0.0050%), meaning longs were still paying to hold positions, and bottom-fishing sentiment had not cleared. This could prolong consolidation or trigger a secondary squeeze. The consensus among several analysts is that the current structure is better defined as an “oversold rebound” rather than a “trend reversal.” Multiple trading plans strictly set stop-losses below the lower Bollinger Band, exiting positions once broken. A market observation from Gate Square also characterizes the state as “neutral consolidation, accumulation zone,” with weak volume and no confirmed breakout yet.Gold has fallen to a one-year low; there are no safe-haven assets left in this world.
Last night's market shattered my understanding built over more than a decade.
The Middle East is still in turmoil, major US tech stocks are crashing collectively, and according to the old script, funds should be rushing to gold for safety, right? So what happened? COMEX gold futures fell below $3900, hitting the lowest in a year; silver is even worse, dropping below $50, nearly halving in value.
Why are safe-haven assets no longer safe? I read a report that analyzed this thoroughly: everyone has lost too much in stocks, leverage is about to blow up, so they are forced to sell the gold that is still making money to cover margin calls. When all assets are falling, liquidity squeezes turn gold into an ATM.
Yesterday, I saw a brother in the group say, "I don't dare trust anything now, I just want to hold cash." I think he’s right. At this stage, the best safe-haven assets are stablecoins and staying out of the market.
#美股与金银同步大跌，避险资金流向分化 $BTC $ETH $SOL $SNDK My strongest heart is a bit weak now
Is this a bull trap?
The earnings report is so strong, why is it still plummeting 🤧
The market keeps crashing, can it hold on!
The better the performance, the more the market falls, indicating that the market trading is no longer just about current profits, but about expectations for future growth!
SanDisk's next quarter operating profit forecast is only 2 trillion yen, lower than the market expectation of 2.35 trillion yen.
More importantly, the price increase of NAND flash memory has significantly slowed down, with about a 70% increase last quarter, and the latest quarter's increase dropped to just over 20%, cooling down expectations for future price rises as well!$BTC votes in the midterm elections today, what is the outlook?
First, the judgment: The Republican election situation is passive, dragged down by the Trump factor, BTC is very likely to have another drop, with support levels first seen at 76000 and 75500.
Currently, the trend is unfavorable to the Republicans, the Democrats have a higher probability of retaking the House, while the Senate remains deadlocked. After the results are finalized, regulatory expectations may cool down, risk aversion sentiment will rise, and funds tend to withdraw from high-risk assets first.
ETF funds are also weak: In the past few trading days, BTC ETF single-day outflows reached up to $643 million, with about $800 million in cumulative outflows from crypto ETFs over the past 7 days, indicating institutions are reducing positions in the short term. Yesterday's outflow was close to zero, more like a wait-and-see after failing to push prices down, not a bullish counterattack.
The market is consolidating with low volume, rebounds lack volume, and the bearish structure remains intact. If it falls below 76000 tomorrow and fails to recover, the next support level to watch is 75500.
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ $UNI is very strong
1. Because Binance still hasn't opened withdrawals, it means the missing coins haven't been fully replenished yet. Once withdrawals open, the strong opportunity will disappear and it will follow the overall market.
2. UNI and ETH share the same wallet code. ETH withdrawals are already open, but UNI's are not, which supports my judgment.
3. Looking at the UNI spot order book, there really isn't enough buying power.
7.02 million tokens were stolen, worth over 50 million dollars. The 2% depth is only about 2 million. The average price hackers sold at was 5.45. If Binance quickly buys back from the secondary market, it will directly pull the price up sharply, so it mainly depends on OTC. The secondary market can only absorb a little, but OTC dealers mainly buy slowly from the secondary market.
So, you know, if the coin replenishment happens too fast and the price rises too high, I will reduce some positions to contribute a small amount to easing liquidity tension 😀At 11:30 PM, the US stock market was volatile at midday, BTC continued to grind at 77600, and risk aversion sentiment tightened again.
Just checked the latest on-chain tracking: a hacker incident triggered over $1.5 billion in leveraged long liquidations; although Binance resumed withdrawals and provided backstop coverage, net outflows have exceeded $3.6 billion; market makers' defensive order cancellations caused order book depth to plummet by over 50%, spot buy orders are severely fractured, and the price is firmly suppressed at 77600.
$BTC: 77600 repeatedly tugged back and forth, $3.6 billion outflows suppressing rebound
Previous reference price was 81500. After the crash, bulls are severely weakened, 78500 has completely turned into strong resistance. Order book support is extremely fragile; if the night session fails to reclaim 78200, beware of further probing down to the critical defense line at 75500 due to liquidity shortage.
$ETH: 2220 weak consolidation, huge stolen chips hanging overhead
Previous reference price was 2450. The attacker’s position liquidation pressure remains, and institutional funds are accelerating withdrawal. Currently retesting 2220 with tug-of-war; if the 2180 defense line breaks, a faster bottom test at 2100 is feared.
$SOL: lost the 100 mark, retreating to weak tug at 93
Previous reference price was 105. Dragged down by market deleveraging, it broke below the 100 integer mark. Order book depth sharply reduced, chips loosened obviously, and rebounds are prone to trigger secondary sell-offs.
Summary: Tens of billions in capital outflows severely damaged order book depth; BTC is stubbornly holding low, altcoins have even weaker support. Prices and funds are still searching for a bottom at low levels.
Until market depth is restored, the true stable bottom has yet to emerge.
#苹果Q4营收超预期，下季度毛利率指引承压