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Bitcoin and Ethereum show strong V-shaped rebound after the second probe
Be patient and hold positions. The base positions entered at 81000 can all be kept without moving. Observe whether the resistance at 84200 can be broken later.
If it can't break through, you can try shorting for a short term.
Overall, still mainly favor low long positions.$BTC is currently hovering around 83450, down 0.35% in the last 24 hours, with an overall bearish trend. But I've been watching the funding rate for a while, and it's ridiculously low, indicating that both bulls and bears are cautious, and no one is willing to pay interest.
This kind of market is the most deceptive. If you short expecting a drop, it can spike up at any moment; if you go long expecting a bottom, it will slowly grind down on you. I once lost 200,000U in this kind of situation—seeing a drop and shorting, only to be taken out by a rebound without even having time to set a stop loss.
Now my strategy is simple: a small 5000U position, lightly going long near the 83090 support, with a stop loss at 82800, and the first target at 84000. If it breaks below 83000, I switch to short without holding the position.
When the funding rate is extremely low, it often signals an upcoming market reversal. Don't bet heavily on direction; try small positions to test, and add more once the trend is clear. Never hold a losing position without a stop loss—staying alive is more important than anything. $ #September CPI announcement is imminent, and Hamak says further rate hikes are still needed Bitcoin has formed a typical deep V-shaped bottoming rebound pattern, with a rapid dip followed by short-term capital replenishment and short covering driving the price back up.
This rebound was anticipated early on and is a technical correction after overselling during the downtrend, not a bottom reversal. The overall bearish trend rhythm remains unchanged.
The deep V pattern easily creates the market illusion of "the price can't fall further and must reverse," but essentially it cleans out low-level panic selling and some short-term short positions.
After the rally, heavy resistance still exists above. This rebound only provides an opportunity for a second high short position. After consolidation, the bearish trend will continue to unfold!
Brothers, after covering shorts at 82700, it should be around 83000 now. Still hold on! Target is a break below 81000!#Microsoft Releases Next-Generation AI Chip, Stock Hits Yearly High
Microsoft is truly determined this time, unveiling its next-generation self-developed AI chip Maia 300.
Announced officially on October 12, with plans for large-scale deployment starting in 2027. Microsoft claims that the AI inference efficiency per unit of power is about 40% higher than leading GPU systems, and rack-level throughput can reach up to 7 times that of the previous generation. Upon the news, Microsoft's stock rose 1.14% that day, closing at $541.15, setting a new historical closing high.
What’s the impact?
First, the computing power market landscape is changing. Microsoft developing its own chip aims primarily to reduce dependence on external GPU suppliers and lower computing costs. Major companies are moving away from Nvidia, which in the long term could diversify computing power supply and make prices more reasonable. But in the short term, since leading players’ self-developed chips are not yet widely deployed, external GPU procurement will still be competitive, and hardware costs won’t drop immediately.
Second, the AI concept in the crypto space will further accelerate its differentiation. Look at giants like Microsoft, investing real money into self-developed chips, steadily moving toward the computing power infrastructure. Those AI concept projects that only write white papers and have no actual products will die off even faster. Capital will increasingly concentrate on targets with real computing power and practical applications.
What’s your take?
$BTC $ETH Institutions are scooping up, so why is BTC still sluggish? 🤔
Institutions focus on the “future,” while short-term traders watch the “intraday.” Morgan Stanley’s MSBT Bitcoin ETF has already accumulated 10,639 coins, about $880 million — this isn’t surfing, it’s long-term seed planting. 🌱
So why is the price still under pressure? Three cold winds are blowing together:
🌍 Unfavorable macro environment: Middle East pushes oil prices up, Brent crude once surged to $102; U.S. Treasury yields skyrocketed, 10-year at 5.36%, 30-year at 5.73%, both hitting 24-year highs, squeezing risk assets hard.
💸 ETF hemorrhaging: On October 7, Bitcoin ETFs saw a single-day net outflow of $485 million, the largest since June 25; from October to now, BTC and ETH ETFs combined have nearly $1 billion outflow, funds are clearly withdrawing.
🦅 Fed hawkish tilt: September minutes show most officials think another rate hike may be needed before year-end, with AI investments and energy prices fueling inflation.
To translate: institutions are betting on fiat depreciation in three to five years, hedge funds are profiting from this month’s price spreads. Some watch fiscal deficits and sovereign credit, others watch U.S. Treasury yields and rate hike paths. BTC is caught in the middle: short-term drained by macro factors, long-term supported by institutions. 📉➡️📈ETH bounced back from 2407 to 2512, but the ETF has been selling for ten consecutive days
Earlier it was still at 2407, and in the blink of an eye, it returned near 2512. ETH made quite a strong rebound. However, looking at the 24-hour period, it is still down overall. A rebound that pulls people out of the water doesn’t mean they’ve already reached the shore.
More strikingly, yesterday the Ethereum spot ETF had a net outflow of about $85.4 million, marking the tenth consecutive day of outflows. The contract fee rate is almost zero, and the open interest decreased by about 1.4% in one day. It currently doesn’t look like bulls are crowding in; it seems more like selling pressure has temporarily eased.
This Thursday, developers will discuss the upgrade directions for Glamsterdam and Hegotá. It’s a discussion about the roadmap, not an immediate upgrade deployment. There is hope in the news, but the funds have not yet cast their real votes with actual money.
Whether it can hold steady around 2500 and whether ETF outflows will stop are more worth watching than a sudden sharp rebound. For those trading contracts, do you dare to treat 2500 as an observation point now, or will you wait for the capital flow to turn first? $ETH The big coin keeps going back and forth, what is it trying to do? It looks easy to trade, but once you do, it fails, right?
The big coin retraced all the way down to 80985, then recovered above the 81270 support level, and immediately started a rapid rebound. Doesn't this scene and feeling seem very familiar?
The last round was exactly like this! It also recovered like this! What we need to do is find relative patterns! Last round, I bought more around 82000–82500, and this round too. Damn, I held it back... floating ball, but luckily this time it came back quickly with no casualties!
So for today's intraday trend, here’s how we see it:
Key levels: 83132–82180, just use these as a reference!
Trading advice:
Go long near 82000–82500,
Targets: 83766–84583
If no opportunity is given, then we take a retracement. Remember, it must be a retracement, don’t be greedy! The range is 84300–85000, place a short order! After finishing, run with your pants up! Don’t hesitate, if you get caught, it will be very painful! $BTC "Three Candlesticks, One Slap"
At midnight, $BTC was still at 84,200. I thought waiting a few more seconds could earn me a bit more. But then a big bearish candle slammed 82,480 onto the screen, dropping 1.4%. The unrealized profit just now was like a cooked duck, flapping away, and it even snatched some of my rice along the way. The profit and loss line rose from my feet to my head; I stared at it like staring at my own greed.
$SOL was even more straightforward. Sliding down from 116, I thought it was a step, reached out to catch it, placed a limit order at 112.5, current price 110.8, down 2.3%. Missed the cheap catch, ended up with a handful of flying knives. The market maker may not know me, but the candlesticks seem to.
$ETH is still the same, 2,515, down 0.5%. It touched 2,560 then softened back, added two more hands, just following the market's breath. It doesn't kill me, just grinds me down.
In the end, the market punishes greed and slowness. Next time with unrealized profits, take half off the table first, push the rest to breakeven. Meat on the bone can't be let fly again.
For personal review only, not investment advice.
#CPI and PPI announcements are imminent, interest rate hike expectations face a test
#Institutions continue to position, why does BTC still face pressure?
#Voice of Trading: Your experience deserves to be heard BTC fell below 81,000 then pulled back to 83,000, ETF is still withdrawing
The scariest moment in the Asian session: BTC once dropped below 81,000, then quickly pulled back above 83,000. The Korean stock market fell over 6%, chip stocks were all green, Nasdaq futures were weak, but the crypto market didn’t seem to dive along this time.
But don’t rush to call a reversal. Yesterday, the US spot BTC ETF still had a net outflow of $65.4 million. The price bounced from the low point, but institutional funds didn’t turn positive simultaneously. Contract rates were slightly positive, and open interest decreased by about 1% compared to yesterday, more like leverage was pulling back a bit first.
Tomorrow the US CPI will be released, and oil prices and inflation expectations are still causing disruption. 81,000 was the recent low, and there is resistance above 84,000. Let’s first see if it can hold, no rush to conclude a rebound.
If you hold contracts, will you keep positions before CPI or reduce leverage first? $BTC Having lunch at noon, a group friend suddenly threw out a question: Can I get on board with RSR?
I was a bit stunned. This coin just appeared on the hot list, up 25% in 24 hours, with trading volume 27.8 times the usual, current price 0.00207. But when you ask what it actually does, none of the usual daily tipsters in the group can give a proper story. No narrative, no new features, purely a fund-driven gamble inside—whoever is slow to catch it gets hit.
I replied: First tell me why you want to buy it. He said because it’s rising. Alright, I know that reason well; I thought the same three years ago and paid my tuition.
This coin’s 24-hour rise on the hot list is really good, and it’s up 20.9% over 7 days with obvious volume increase. But remember how those speculative coins trapped you last year—a surge with volume, then a half-year slow decline without even a rebound. If you want to play, use money for a meal, treat it like buying a lottery ticket, don’t bet heavily. I’m holding back, saving bullets for when there’s a real story. $RSR Is there at least one more weekly-level pullback for Bitcoin and Ethereum? It's really too early to bottom-fish now!
Inflation data hasn't been released yet, but the market has already taken a hit in advance. BTC has yet to reclaim 85,000, ETH is under pressure simultaneously, and the rebound is weak. The biggest danger now is not missing out, but blindly bottom-fishing.
Three signals to watch out for:
Macro pressure: Middle East tensions are escalating, oil prices and inflation risks are intensifying, U.S. Treasury yields remain high, combined with hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve, risk assets continue to be under pressure. CPI and PPI have not yet been announced, so uncertainty remains in the market.
ETF continuous outflows: From October 1 to 9, BTC spot ETFs had a cumulative net outflow of about $386 million; ETH had a cumulative net outflow of about $645 million as of October 12, indicating weak spot buying support.
Concentrated long liquidations: Approximately $785 million liquidated across the network in 24 hours, 172,662 people forcibly liquidated, longs account for about 88%, with a long-to-short liquidation amount ratio close to 9:1. Concentrated leverage clearing may further amplify the downtrend.
With the triple pressure of macro, capital, and liquidations overlapping, whether the weekly-level correction has ended still needs confirmation.
Better to miss a rebound than to rush to catch a falling knife. Wait for price stabilization, volume improvement, and spot buying to return before considering the next move. $BTC $ETH $SOL
#SeptemberCPIReleaseImminent Hamark says further rate hikes are still needed #TSMCQ3RevenueHitsRecordHigh ProfitPerformanceToBeRevealed #BTCandETHSpotETFOutflowsSimultaneous HasInstitutionalDemandWeakened? When blood pressure drops to 2.19, family members often still ask, "Is it a cold?" It's not a cold. It's cardiac output failure, and what I see is a valve at 95% of the Bollinger Band position already torn—this is the most dangerous image that intraoperative ultrasound can capture: the price is stuck at the upper band, with only 0.4% margin above, while the mid-cycle Bollinger Band reading of 116% means the vessel wall has been stretched beyond anatomical limits, and the clamp position at -1.1% is right overhead.
A 24-hour fluctuation of 5.09% is not ordinary arrhythmia. This is a precursor to ventricular fibrillation. The 1-hour RSI has surged to 68.1, the long cycle to 61.8, both channels simultaneously entering the sympathetic storm zone, and the trading signal clearly says SELL—when myocardial oxygen consumption and perfusion pressure begin to diverge, only amateurs continue to administer inotropes. A short-cycle RSI over 64 indicates insufficient anesthesia depth, and a long cycle approaching 62 means extracorporeal circulation cooling is too slow; combined, these two indicators mean what we call "looks okay, but actually sliding irreversibly on the table."
Diagnosis: This is acute right heart overload failure, not ischemia. Shorting is the only surgical approach.
📉 Short:
Entry: 2.26 (current price +3.4%, wait for pullback to confirm valve insufficiency)
Take Profit 1: 1.98 (-9.5%, first assistant sends pathology)
Take Profit 2: 2.00 (-9.5%, simultaneous ventricular closure)
Stop Loss: 2.51 (+14.6%, immediate release if major bleeding occurs)
Why place the stop loss so far at 14.6%? Because in cardiac surgery, the worst is premature hemostatic clamping that turns a repairable tear into an un-sutureable necrosis. 2.51 is the safe boundary for aortic occlusion; if breached, the entire surgical field floods. The target range of 9.5% space exactly matches the complete perfusion drop from the current price to the lower Bollinger Band—this is not speculation, but an anatomical path already mapped by preoperative CT.
Don't perform extracorporeal circulation in an emotional state. Price decline is just a line on the ECG; the real lesion is the short-term compensatory failure of systolic blood flow. Those who hesitate while hemodynamics are still stable will have no second chance when cardiac tamponade occurs on the table.
Suture complete, close the chest.$ZEC SPIKED TO 1,349.09, DUMPED TO 1,123.33, THEN BOUNCED TO 1,217.20 ON THE 1H CHART. Today shows +4.29%, yet 7D still reads -10.97%.
I won't let one green day erase a red week. Can the 1,123.33 wick hold as a floor, or was it just a flush?Bitwise那只狗狗币ETF今天最后一天交易了，明天开始清算，22号把钱退给剩下的人。资产从250万种子资金掉到只剩72万5千。
我看到这个新闻的时候，第一反应是完了，是不是要崩。
但多看了两眼，发现一个有意思的事。美国市场还有别的狗狗币ETF在跑着，灰度的GDOG、21Shares的TDOG都没关。而且整个狗狗币ETF上周还净流入了32万7千美元，连续第三周往里进钱。
一家关了门，别家还开着。
真正让我愣住的是另一个数据。狗狗币现货流向过去一周从净流入翻成了净流出，周环比变化599%，大约5700万美元从交易所提走了。一帮人看到这个数字就喊跑，但你想想，如果真有5700万美金的DOGE往市场上砸，价格早就崩了。它没有。钱大概率是从交易所挪到了冷钱包，换个地方待着。
$DOGE 我盯着这个信号。Short position earned 928%, not because the direction was right
$SNDK has held this short position for a long time.
Several times in between, it almost closed at 1600.
What does this number mean:
928% is the leveraged return, not that the coin price dropped 928%.
With several times leverage, this percentage is amplified by that multiple.
How is this number calculated:
Shorted from 1769 to 1547, the price dropped just over 12%.
Multiply by leverage, it becomes 928%.
The direction was right, leverage is the amplifier.
The reason for the drop is not complicated.
Next quarter's performance did not meet expectations, the hype from the flash memory price increase is basically over.
Once the news came out, the storage sector dropped together.
Now the news has been digested, and funds have returned.
1547 is the key support for this wave.
The hourly chart shows signs of stabilization.
If it breaks below, the decline will truly continue.
#SanDiskMicronDecline, ChangXinTechnologyProgressUnderFocus $SNDK Core drivers of the decline: concentrated release of geopolitical risks
① Ukraine energy ceasefire “verbal agreement” falls through
Trump previously announced a suspension of attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, but Zelensky later clearly stated he was unaware of any ceasefire news. The market has serious doubts about the actual implementation of Trump’s statement, and geopolitical risk premiums have been re-priced into oil prices.
② Oil tanker attacked in the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices surge
Iran reported that an oil tanker was attacked and caught fire in the Strait of Hormuz. WTI crude oil broke above 107.25, reaching a new high since September 16. The surge in oil prices directly pushed up inflation expectations, strengthening market concerns about the Fed continuing to tighten policy. Former Goldman Sachs chief FX strategist Robin Brooks pointed out that current oil prices have priced in too many geopolitical risk factors; although the volume of crude transported through the Persian Gulf has declined, it is still better than the most tense period in March-April.
③ US-Iran tensions escalate, suppressing risk appetite
The escalation of US-Iran tensions combined with the crude oil rebound directly lowered risk appetite, with BTC quickly pulling back 0.34% within 15 minutes. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #Microsoft releases next-generation AI chip, stock price hits yearly high $BCH TAGGED 257.5 AND SNAPPED BACK TO 272.2. The 4h shows a long lower wick after a steep slide. Today is +2.52%, yet 7D still reads -12.72%. One green candle isn't a trend;
I need follow-through. Can BCH reclaim 288.8, the 24h high?📊 加密市场情报 · 2026-10-13 📉 当日整体情绪：看跌 中东地缘风险急升推高油价，半导体/存储板块回调，加密市场ETH多单遭清算，整体偏防御 💬 微信群聊总结：看跌 窗口内行情先热后崩：12日下午 Upbit 连上 RSR、GTC 等老币带来枯坐打新机会，W、STRK 等老登币集体异动；晚间 CZ/何一与徐明星隔空开撕，大盘走弱，13日早间韩股与美股半导体（海力士）暴跌带崩币圈，BTC 跌到 8.1w，PONS 持续新低，RH 链生态几近熄火。Papertrade(PAPER) 挖矿分红是少数赚钱的事。 • Upbit 密集上小市值老币（RSR/GTC），机器人秒拉，枯坐仍有肉 • PONS 持续新低到 0.2x，RH 链不上自家现货，群内普遍套牢 • 10-13 早盘全线暴跌，韩股熔断+海力士/存储崩，BTC 8.1w • 何一 vs 徐明星再度开撕，群内共识：一吵架就跌，做空胜率高 • PAPER 刷量挖矿成本已降至 0.004-0.006，头矿者靠分红回本 • BSC/SOL meme 流动性枯竭，上 Alpha 门槛降至约 10-15M 🎯 叙事 / 主题聚$BTC
The 30-year US Treasury yield has already broken 5.6%. Although the Treasury's two rounds of long-term bond auctions were barely supported, that was achieved by "attracting buyers with high yields." If the upcoming CPI data isn't too bad, or if Wash's speech on Friday is milder than expected, risk assets might collectively catch a breather, and BTC could very well rebound accordingly. I don't want to short near 83,000; I'd rather wait for a rebound to the 84,500-85,000 range before considering adding positions.
My trading idea (personal opinion only):
82,500 is the bottom line, not the target. If the weekly close confirms a break below this level, I will hold shorts without hesitation aiming for 77,000, which is the cost zone with the densest positions according to on-chain data. But if the price stabilizes above 83,500 again and holds for several hours, I will reduce my position and observe, not stubbornly fight the market. The CPI on October 14 is the biggest risk this week; I won't heavily bet on direction before the data is released.$BTC
To put it simply, shorting BTC this week is not about betting that Bitcoin itself has problems, but betting that macro sentiment will crush risk assets. I have only one feeling: the old monster called inflation has not been killed.#SeptemberCPIcomingsoon, Hamak says further rate hikes are still needed #BTCandETHspotETFs see simultaneous outflows, is institutional demand weakening? #Tokenizedassetsaccelerateexpansion, how far is large-scale implementation? Hello brothers and sisters, I am Coin Brother!
Damn! What kind of market is this! BTC jumped directly from 80961 to 83330 in a V-shape, gaining over 2300 points!
Just now near 81000, I saw a bunch of people shouting that if it breaks below 80,000, it would go to 78,000, but then a big bullish candle completely buried the shorts. The manipulator’s tactic is really tricky: first smash down to clear longs, then pump up to blow out shorts, harvesting back and forth.
Now the 30-minute MACD red bars have surged, indicating a strong short-term rebound. But with the CPI coming tomorrow night, whether this V-shaped rebound is a real reversal or a bull trap, no one can say for sure.
Brothers chasing longs, be careful, there is often a second pullback after a V-shaped rebound. Don’t get carried away, control your position size.
#September CPI announcement imminent, Harker says further rate hikes still needed #TSMC Q3 revenue hits record high, profit performance to be revealed #BTC and ETH spot ETFs see simultaneous outflows, is institutional demand weakening? $BTC $ETH $ZEC #TSMC Q3 Revenue Hits Record High, Profit Performance Yet to Be Revealed
The boss has something to say
TSMC's Q3 revenue reached 1.49 trillion New Taiwan Dollars, a 50% year-over-year increase, setting a new historical high. But with the revenue record already announced, the real focus now is whether profits can grow in tandem.
The market is watching the full financial report on October 15. The key point is not revenue, but gross margin. The company itself expects 65% to 67%, lower than Q2's 67.7%. Strong demand for AI chips and high utilization of advanced process capacity are positives, but depreciation and cost pressures from capacity expansion are also rising. Inventory is also critical; if inventory turnover days lengthen, it indicates demand might not be as tight. Some comments suggest flipping the inventory page first, which is the right approach.
The impact on crypto is indirect. If TSMC's profits exceed expectations and AI hardware remains strong, funds will continue to stay in chips and cloud infrastructure, drawing liquidity away from Bitcoin. If gross margin falls short of expectations, the semiconductor sector will pull back, risk appetite will shrink, and Bitcoin will come under pressure. Both scenarios lean bearish.
I hold long Bitcoin positions at 83,000 and short positions at 86,500, hedging both sides with a light position. No one-sided bets before CPI data. Long position stop loss at 81,500, target 86,000. Short position stop loss at 87,500, target 84,500 to 85,000. Whichever target is hit first, reduce that side first.
TSMC's earnings report is an industry validation, not a directional switch. Don't chase the rally or panic sell; set stop losses properly. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
The above analysis is time-sensitive; positions must have stop losses set. Good luck.SOL is trading near $109.6, down around 3.1%. After retreating from $115, I expected buyers to step in and deliver a decent bounce. Instead, the recovery stalled, and selling pressure returned. What looked like a discount turned into another uncomfortable position. I'll be watching the $108–$110 zone closely; losing it could invite further weakness, while a sustained move back above $112 would offer some relief.⚠️ $SNDK SanDisk: How far can the rebound go? $1504 is the key!
Although SanDisk is more resistant to decline than Hynix, after hitting the lower edge of the $1860–$2350 resistance zone, it still experienced a pullback. Meanwhile, OpenAI's revenue fell short of expectations, reigniting market concerns about AI investment returns, and the storage hardware sector has started to come under pressure. Warning signs have appeared.
Next, don't get swayed by short-term fluctuations; focus on $1504.
If this level is broken down with high volume and the price fails to recover promptly, this rebound may be coming to an end. Conversely, if the support holds, with volume shrinking on the pullback and expanding on the rebound, there is still a chance to challenge the upper resistance zone again.
Ultimately, investing is not about chasing explosive gains every day. Many people always think about how to grow their wealth quickly but overlook a fundamental truth: it's very difficult to consistently earn money beyond one's understanding. Even if you occasionally make a lucky profit, without judgment and risk awareness, you may end up giving the profits back to the market.
Market ups and downs are normal. Instead of frequently chasing hot trends, it's better to cultivate your financial mindset, understand why you buy, where the risks lie, and under what circumstances you should exit.
Whether SanDisk continues to rebound or weakens depends on whether $1504 can hold. If the support is effective, keep watching for upward opportunities; once a breakdown is confirmed, adjust your expectations promptly. Investing is not about short-term luck but about cognition, patience, and risk management.
#TradingVoice: Your experience deserves to be heard Heavy positions in US stocks have plummeted, can the Wall Street big shots pull the market up? Can't hold on much longer!!!
SNDK current price 1442, 15-minute timeframe still below all EMA lines, indicating a weak recovery after a sharp drop, RSI6=50, no clear bullish reversal signal. Resistance above at 1471 (EMA55), short-term support at 1427, currently just a slight rebound after overselling, rebound priority is to test resistance levels, not suitable for chasing longs directly.
SK Hynix current price 1083, down 6.21%, bears are stronger, price far from short-term moving averages, RSI6=25.3 entering oversold zone, DIFF remains below DEA, downward momentum has not fully exhausted. First resistance above at 1139 (EMA55), support below at 1080, oversold does not directly mean bottom, risk/reward ratio for bottom fishing is low.
Looking at BTC linkage, BTC has rebounded quickly in the short term, RSI is close to overbought, there is a risk of a pullback later, storage assets themselves are highly elastic, the market will face pressure again once it falls back.
Overall strategy: heavy long positions are not recommended; if you want to speculate on short-term longs, wait for a stable hold above moving averages with volume confirmation before trying small positions, strictly use stop loss. $BTC $SNDK $SKHYNIX
The above is only a market review and does not constitute any trading advice. #September CPI announcement imminent, Harmak says further rate hikes needed #TSMC Q3 revenue hits record high, profit performance to be revealed #BTC and ETH spot ETFs see simultaneous outflows, is institutional demand weakening? 虽然早上发帖让大家以太2450接多，扛仓40点，但是回涨到现在已经吃了60多点了，也算是舒坦了🤑$ETH Testnet shutdown is not an exit scam, it's a map change.
Neura has shut down the v1 testnet and Neuraverse together to move to the next phase.
Many people's first reaction is "the project is dead."
I think we shouldn't jump to conclusions just yet.
The key lies in the snapshot.
Points, leaderboards, tasks, event history—all have been saved.
What does this mean?
It means the previous gameplay is ending, but your records haven't been wiped.
Simply put, the old map is no longer active, and the new map hasn't been announced yet.
What we should focus on now is not what has been shut down, but what will be introduced in the next phase.
If the new content connects well, this shutdown is an upgrade.
If not, the snapshot is just a commemorative photo.
As an old holder, I have a conditioned reflex when I see the word "snapshot."
First, take a screenshot to save it, then talk about faith.
#Tokenized asset acceleration expansion, how far is large-scale implementation? $ETH 📊BTC卡在83,400，CPI前夜别急着动手！
现价83,407，24小时涨0.83%，但4小时图仍处于下行通道，84,000-85,000是密集压力区。市场情绪明显降温——恐惧贪婪指数从67回落至56，重回中性区间。资金面也在退潮：BTC现货ETF昨日净流出6,540万美元，贝莱德IBIT居首。
链上信号值得警惕：某巨鲸累计卖出837.8枚BTC，换仓买入27,500枚ETH，价值约6,968万美元。另有远古巨鲸沉寂多年后转出全部4,582枚BTC，价值3.77亿美元。
关键点位：下方82,500是本周重要支撑，上方83,400是短线阻力。10月14日CPI预期同比3.7%，10月15日PPI数据紧随其后，这才是决定方向的分水岭。
轻仓等数据，别赌方向。你觉得CPI是热还是冷？评论区聊👇#9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 $BTC W从0.02971高位回落到0.01936，小时线连续阴线，均线拐头向下，MACD绿柱还在扩张，RSI进入超卖但没有止跌信号。盘口显示0.01936下方堆积大量多头清算，价格一旦击穿0.01890容易触发连环强平，这个位置不接多。
刚才拎着餐盒爬完六楼，声控灯没亮，手机在兜里震得腿麻。
短线等反抽做空更稳。反弹到0.02040至0.02090区间，只要滞涨就进场，防守放在0.02220，第一止盈0.01760，第二止盈0.01580。如果直接放量跌破0.01890，不抄底，反抽0.01930继续空，止损0.02030，目标0.01600。
$W
#PIMCO警告10年期美债收益率或达6%
@OKX星球 前阵子被同事拉进一个群
天天有人晒单
我看多了就手痒
扔了几百块进去试
第一笔买了 $BTC
买完就阴跌
跌得我外卖都挑便宜的
后来又去摸 $ETH
链上东西多
手续费也狠
一笔操作半天白忙
再后来听人说 $SOL 快
转点小钱去试
快是真快
坑也真坑
有的项目说没就没
亏过几回才学乖
不追热点
不跟喊单
不碰看不懂的
私钥自己抄好
谁问都不给
陌生链接不点
空投再香也不乱连钱包
现在只拿亏了不心疼的钱
放着就放着
涨了不飘
跌了不慌
这行机会多
坑更多
活得久比赚一波重要
别借钱
别上头
别信稳赚
剩下的交给时间#台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓
#BTC与ETH现货ETF同步流出，机构需求转弱了吗？
#微软发布新一代AI芯片，股价触及年内高点 #aavev4 deposits on Arc surpass $300 million
[Old Leek Observation] $AAVE V4 deposits have surged past $300 million, the money is coming in, but the real test is yet to come
Aave V4's deposit scale on Arc once exceeded $300 million, which is a development worth noting. But I think more important than the deposit number is: what will be done with this money after it comes in?
In DeFi, a large deposit scale does not necessarily mean the protocol is profitable. Funds coming in only indicate that users are willing to put assets into this market; if borrowing demand does not keep up and capital utilization remains low, no matter how many deposits there are, it may not bring corresponding protocol revenue.
Conversely, if deposits grow while borrowing scale, capital utilization, and active users also continue to increase, that indicates the market is not just attracting funds but truly forming borrowing demand.
So this time I won’t rush to call it a positive for AAVE. Getting a wave of capital attention after the new network launch is the first step; whether this batch of funds can be retained and both deposits and borrowings grow together is what needs to be verified next.
For Aave V4, $300 million is a good starting point, but it’s not the final answer.
When you look at DeFi protocols, do you pay more attention to TVL (Total Value Locked), or borrowing scale and actual revenue?Tom Lee警示：韩国股市暴跌或引发加密市场连锁反应，短期阵痛难免
10月13日，Fundstrat联合创始人、以太坊财库公司 BitMine 董事长Tom Lee 发出预警，指出韩国股市的大幅下挫正成为加密市场的新风险点。
Tom Lee认为，韩国投资者作为加密货币的重要持有群体，其本土证券市场的剧烈波动极有可能通过资金链条传导至币圈。
Lee分析，韩国股市下跌或将触发券商保证金清算。部分投资者为填补股票账户亏损、补足保证金，会被迫卖出加密资产，从而给币价带来抛压。
他甚至直言，这场跨市场的流动性冲击，或将让加密市场在短期内承受"阵痛"。话虽说得克制，指向却很明确：
即，韩国股市去杠杆效应不止影响股票。一旦保证金清算压力传导至韩国散户重仓的加密资产，抛压会跨市场扩散，加密行情短期难以独善其身。
本次预警始于 Bull Theory 帖文观点称，受韩国综合股价指数（KOSPI）盘中暴跌5%的影响，韩国交易所已紧急暂停程序化交易5分钟。
值得注意的是，这也是近两个月来韩国股市首次触发此类熔断机制，显示出资本市场的恐慌情绪正在迅速蔓延。
#韩国股市暴跌#9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息
美股盘面分析：财报季前夜，能源航运抢跑，芯片股遭突袭
周一美股又玩起了“指数打架”，道指涨0.38%，纳指跌0.44%，标普基本收平。最扎眼的是成交量，只有126亿股，创下2003年以来非节假日的最低水平，大家都在等银行财报揭幕。
宏观上出了个黑天鹅：长鑫存储宣布下一代DRAM架构取得突破，直接剑指AI服务器高毛利内存。 美光应声跌破1000美元，闪迪、SK海力士、英特尔全线下挫，费城半导体指数跌了2.7%，创三周新低。
另一个方向是中东。 胡塞武装周末袭击沙特机场，霍尔木兹海峡附近油轮接连遇袭，油价涨超2%。资金立刻涌向能源和航运，XLE能源ETF和BOAT全球航运ETF双双创历史新高。黄金和比特币被美元走强压得喘不过气，黄金跌0.6%，比特币回落至8万3附近。
总结一句：财报季前的安静里，资金已经选好了边。 芯片被中国竞争和技术迭代压着，能源航运被地缘政治推着，两边剪刀差越来越明显。等财报出来，波动率一放大，方向就更清晰了。中午好兄弟们
500U起步复利，现在第48天，总资产2800U上下，最高到过3100U。
说下ETH这一单，前天开的多空，昨天下午多单止盈，顺势加了3倍空。
一加仓行情就猛往上冲，直接打到2576，我的止损设在2580，差一点点就被扫，当时真的吓坏了。
好在后面跌下来，这一单回血大半。
下跌的时候胆子比较小，提前止盈大部分，现在手上只剩七分之一仓位，保本损挂上，已经没什么压力。
最近跟着高手学了一套新策略，后面边研究边慢慢回血。
兄弟们记住，慢即是快。
这种高博弈的单子尽量少碰，太折磨心态了。
⚠️个人实盘分享，不构成投资建议，合约风险
#9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 Ethereum spot ETF has had net outflows for 10 consecutive trading days, totaling about $780 million 📉
Yesterday (Oct 12, Eastern Time), another $85.4 million left.
Some numbers👇
🔹 Since September 29 in this round, about $697 million flowed out in the first 9 days, plus about $783 million including yesterday
🔹 Yesterday, BlackRock's ETHA saw an outflow of $75.07 million, accounting for about 88% of the day's outflow; another product outflowed $10.33 million, the rest were zero
🔹 Total ETF net asset value is $15.86 billion, about 5.15% of Ethereum's total market cap
🔹 Historical cumulative net inflow is still $13.17 billion
My view:
1️⃣ $780 million is about 6% of the $13.17 billion cumulative net inflow. Ten consecutive days sounds scary, but the bulk of existing funds remain.
2️⃣ Outflows are concentrated in one product; focusing only on "consecutive days" may overestimate panic, looking at amount and concentration is more accurate.
3️⃣ ETH is now around $2,500, similar to last Saturday. Fund flows and price don’t necessarily move in sync, so don’t just watch the ETF indicator.
How many days do you think this round of outflows will last?
The above is just my personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency prices are highly volatile; please be cautious.
$ETH
#Ethereum #ETF #FundFlowsAfter yesterday's post was sent out, it directly crashed to 2409 in the early morning, just 3 points away from the previous low of 2406.
Those who said I was stubborn in the comments should be quiet now.
But the story isn't over yet.
$ETH plunged at dawn, then was pulled back to 2512. This is not a reversal; it's the main force testing the depth of the buy orders below.
If it detects someone catching it, it will bounce accordingly.
If it finds no one catching, it will continue to crash down.
The volume on the 4-hour chart already tells the story: volume shrinks on the rebound and expands on the decline. This is not a sign of a rise; it's searching for the next position to offload.
The fundamentals haven't changed.
BitMine has stopped increasing holdings, validators are still queued to exit, interest rate hike expectations hang overhead, and liquidity will only tighten further.
None of these logics have changed because of the early morning rebound.
I’m still holding my short at 2671, with an unrealized profit of 597%.
If it dares to charge 2550 again, I will add to my position.
The support at 2406 is the previous low; if broken, it will go to 2300.
Don’t ask if you can short; ask yourself if you dare to pull the trigger when others hesitate.
$BTC
$ZEC
#September CPI announcement imminent, Hamaak says further rate hikes are still needed
#TSMC Q3 revenue hits record high, profit performance to be revealed The most fragile link in the account has never been getting the direction wrong, but rather the itch to trade after making money with a small position. Have you ever had this moment: clearly holding the right position, but because you bought too little, you want to gamble bigger? I was losing for several days and felt a bit down. These past two days, ETH almost doubled, but I only put in a small position purely as stress relief. The money came back, but so did the regret—if I had gone heavier at the start, would things be different now? But honestly, if the position was really big, I might not have held on and could have been shaken out midway. This kind of dilemma is more tormenting than losses. Looking at the market now, the rally is indeed a bit breathless. ETH’s slope this time is too steep, short-term sentiment is very stretched, and BTC and ZEC are also getting restless. CPI and PPI are about to be released, and interest rate hike expectations need to be repriced; this is the most direct variable right now. On the other hand, rumors of a Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire are still floating, TSMC’s Q3 revenue hit a new high, and the October 15 earnings report is also noteworthy. These cross-market signals together actually tell the same story: risk appetite is being driven by macro data, and the crypto market is not an isolated trend. Data snapshot: - ETH’s short-term gains are close to doubling, sentiment is overheated - BTC follows but hasn’t simultaneously made a stronger high - ZEC’s movement indicates funds are looking for catch-up gains and privacy narratives - CPI and PPI releases are imminent, interest rate path awaits adjustment - Energy ceasefire rumors and TSMC earnings affect cross-asset risk appetite Momentum signals: ETH leads, altcoins follow, market willing to pay narrative premium. Risk signals: gainsETH fell from $2738 to $2406, a cumulative drop of about 332 points. After a day and a half of rebound, the price only recovered over 100 points, indicating that the overall recovery strength is still limited. Why is $2550 a key level? $2550 is not only an important round number but also a critical area when bears entered the market for the second time. Previously, the drop exceeded 330 points, but now the rebound is less than half, showing that buying pressure has not yet demonstrated enough sustainability. Key price levels to watch next: 📉 Resistance above: - $2550: Short-term key resistance level. - $2557–$2565: Recent main resistance range. - $2580: Location of the 7-day moving average, which may further suppress the rebound. 📈 Support below: - $2500: First important support. - $2484: If $2500 fails, attention should be paid to the support here. - $2406: Previous low point; if broken again, the market may face further downward pressure. Core judgment: A rebound does not equal a reversal. This rebound is still weak compared to the previous decline, and buyers have not yet proven they can sustainably take over the market. If ETH cannot effectively break through the $2557–$2565 resistance zone, the downtrend cannot be easily considered reversed. Positioning short near $2550 essentially bets on the rebound being blocked, but whether it will materialize depends on actual price performance; decisions should not be made based on a single price level. Trade without guessing the bottom, 🔥 In the past 24 hours, leveraged funds in the crypto market have been continuously adjusting, and the liquidation concentration zones for BTC, ETH, SOL, and ZEC have gradually emerged. Next, which side is more likely to be harvested by the market? 📊 BTC: Long-short game, choose direction cautiously Current price is about $83,889. Around $84,705 above, there is approximately $29.23 million in short liquidation volume; around $82,188 below, there is about $40.31 million in long liquidation pressure. From the data, the long liquidation scale below is larger, meaning longs face relatively higher potential risk. But the short liquidation zone is also close at hand, so short-term bidirectional sweeps still need to be guarded against. 📊 ETH: Close liquidation zones above and below, volatility may intensify ETH is currently trading near $2,544. Around $2,568 above and $2,509 below correspond to liquidation volumes of about $22.79 million respectively. The liquidation volumes on both long and short sides are basically balanced and close to the current price. Once the price breaks out in either direction, it may trigger a chain liquidation of leveraged positions, so short-term volatility deserves close attention. 📊 SOL: More obvious short liquidation pressure above SOL is currently about $111.54. Around $113.37 above, short liquidation volume is about $5.22 million; around $108.39 below, long liquidation volume is about $3.26 million. Currently, the potential liquidation volume above is larger. If the price continues to strengthen, it may trigger concentrated stop-loss and liquidation of shorts. However, this does not yet indicateThe crypto market downturn has intensified, with the three major mainstream coins BTC, ETH, and SOL all hitting recent lows simultaneously. ETF funds continue to withdraw, and market sentiment is clearly under pressure. Next, focus on the US CPI data and wait for macro signals to guide the market direction. 📊 Mainstream Coin Market Tracking 🔸 BTC｜Around $81,803 The total open interest across the network is about $55.05 billion, increasing by 1.28% in 24 hours. While the price is falling, the open interest is rising, indicating some funds are still adding positions, and bearish forces may be strengthening. Regarding funding rates, Binance is +0.0019%, OKX is +0.0066%. Both bulls and bears are still competing, but judging from the current price performance, bears temporarily hold the initiative. Caution is needed for volatility risks caused by continued leverage accumulation. 🔸 ETH｜Around $2,445 ETH has broken below the previous whale fund defense zone's lower boundary, with short-term momentum weakening further. Next, $2,401 is a key level bulls need to defend. If this level is lost, the potential chain liquidation scale of long positions could reach $553 million, which may further amplify price volatility. Binance funding rate is -0.0033%, OKX is -0.0017%, negative rates reflect a strong bearish sentiment in the market, with bears currently having the upper hand. 🔸 SOL｜Around $105.78 SOL's liquidation amount in the past 24 hours is about $10.89 million, with long positions accounting for as much as 94% Brushing away three layers of ash, what is revealed underneath is not rebirth, but fracture lines identical to those before the collapse of Pompeii's walls in BC. There is nothing new under the sun; every sharp plunge in the K-line is merely a replication of the human panic recorded countless times in historical chronicles.
Holding a probe shovel to peel through the cultural layers of $SUI, the current market is in the Quaternary glacial retreat period. When the price approaches around 1.055 USDT, the lower Bollinger Band forms a clear rammed earth support layer near 1.009. Many retail investors are crying apocalypse, but in the ancient book "The Madness of Crowds," I see the psychological cycle of predecessors repeatedly cutting losses at panic extremes and buying at feverish highs.
I observe my own heart rate and fingertip temperature; loss aversion is secretly releasing toxins in the brain's limbic system. This instinct urges people to flee the "seemingly dangerous" ruins, but rational academic training tells me: when the public undervalues an unearthed artifact due to bias, that is the golden window for contrarian excavation.
Stratigraphic profiles do not lie; the compression in the oscillation range is accumulating energy. The upper Bollinger Band at 1.128 is the high point of the previous civilization relic and also the carbonized layer left by the battle between bulls and bears. Following stratigraphic logic, establish an archaeological specimen excavation position at the junction of the rammed earth layer and bedrock, cutting emotional bonds with discipline.
- Target: $SUI 🟢
- Entry: 1.045 - 1.060
- TP1: 1.115
- TP2: 1.128
- SL: 0.998
The stratigraphic dating is set; a breakdown means foundation collapse. Only by sealing the site can there be no compromise.
#CoinMoveAlertFirst, let's reconcile the accounts. Yesterday at midday, I said that if it broke below 82,800, the breakout judgment would be invalidated. As a result, in the evening, a single spike directly pierced down to 81,032.8, truly breaking the invalidation line; the post-market statement "If it doesn't break 82,957, the rebound is not over" was also invalidated. Both predictions were completely wrong, I accept it and won't make excuses. Today’s market looks mild, BTC is down 0.26% at 83,303, but the combined upper and lower shadows total 3,300 dollars: 24h high 84,361.6, low 81,032.8, all spikes. SOL was the most volatile, down 3.43%, first dropping to 101.63 then rebounding to 107.7, a 6% V in one day. ETH is down 1.37% at 2,510, with fees flat near the floor. What's interesting is the fees. BTC fees are +0.0043%, bulls are still willing to pay; SOL fees are -0.0033%, turning negative, shorts are paying. BTC total network open interest is 29,315 contracts, shrinking compared to yesterday: this rebound is supported by short covering, not new money entering. Simply put, after a big drop, a natural rebound occurs, don’t mistake it for a reversal. Judgment: from this afternoon to tonight, if BTC holds 82,800 (the line broken yesterday, now acting as support), the rebound will continue with a slightly strong consolidation. The falsification condition is fixed: if it falls back below 81,600 during the day, 81,032.8 is not the bottom, the rebound fails, and tonight we directly look to retest 80,400. CPI data drops tomorrow at 20:30, chasing highs today is like crossing the street blindfolded. CPI 📉 🌍 Oil & Fed: Middle East tensions have pushed WTI above $93, reigniting inflation concerns and strengthening expectations of a hawkish Fed. Rate-cut hopes remain under pressure. 🇰🇷 South Korea Stocks: Heavy selling in Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix triggered a trading-sidecar mechanism, highlighting rising volatility in tech stocks. ₿ BTC: Bitcoin is consolidating around $83,000–$83,600 as leveraged positions unwind. Without stronger support from macro conditions and fund flows, a sustaiAlthough I really don't want to say it, the $4Stock market is basically out of control. Let's take a look at the data!
Data changes of the top 40 $4Stock holders on 2026.10.13:
Alpha: inflow of 8.8 million tokens
gate1: inflow of 450,000 tokens
kucoin2: inflow of 6 million tokens
Burn address: burned 1.9 million tokens
mexc: inflow of 2.47 million tokens
New entries in top 40: 6 people total, 3 increased positions, 2 transferred in, 1 normal entry
Dropped out of top 40: 6 people total, all 6 cleared their positions
Top 40 increased positions: 5 people total, all 5 increased, 2 addresses suspected to be gate on-chain addresses
Top 40 decreased positions: 0 people
Daily key summary for $4Stock:
Among the 6 new entries in the top 40, only 3 increased their positions. The 6 addresses that dropped out of the top 40 all cleared their positions, with a large amount cleared. Among the top 40, 5 addresses increased positions and none decreased, but 2 of these addresses appear to be gate's on-chain transfer addresses. Overall data fluctuations are large, with a clear continuous selling pressure. Looking roughly at these sell-offs, part comes from Alpha, part from gate, with on-chain sales of about 30 million tokens. The token price has dropped about 45% since the last statistics, nearly halving. On-chain selling pressure alone cannot explain such a large price drop, so selling pressure from Binance Alpha and gate must also be very significant. Although I really don't want to say it, the overall market has turned into a one-sided decline, and many front-row addresses are now trapped in losses.The year before last, my colleagues kept posting screenshots in the group chat.
I got curious after seeing so many,
so I put in a few hundred bucks to try.
My first purchase was $BTC.
After buying, it just slowly dropped.
It dropped so much that I had to order the cheapest takeout.
Later, I tried $ETH.
There are many things on the chain,
and the fees are expensive.
One operation wasted half a day.
Then I heard people hype $SOL as fast.
I transferred a little money to play.
It’s really fast,
but the traps are real too.
Some projects disappear just like that.
After losing a few times, I learned my lesson:
Don’t chase hot topics,
Don’t follow tips blindly,
Don’t touch what you don’t understand.
Write down your private keys yourself,
Don’t give them to anyone who asks,
Don’t click on unknown links,
No matter how tempting the airdrop is, don’t connect your wallet recklessly.
Now I only hold money I won’t mind losing.
Just leave it there.
If it goes up, don’t get cocky.
If it goes down, don’t panic.
There are many opportunities in this field,
but even more traps.
Surviving longer is more important than making a quick profit.
Don’t borrow money,
Don’t get carried away,
Don’t believe in guaranteed profits.
Leave the rest to time.#TSMC Q3 revenue hits a new high, profit performance to be revealed
#BTC and ETH spot ETFs see simultaneous outflows, is institutional demand weakening?
#Microsoft releases new generation AI chip, stock price hits yearly high [Pharaoh's Market Watch]
Bitcoin just dipped to 80,961 then bounced back to 83,300. Can you chase the long now?
Pharaoh says straight up, don’t rush. 83,300 is just the "mid-slope" — chasing in now risks getting crushed by yesterday’s trapped sellers. Today's script is: first surge higher, then pull back. Whether there’s a second rebound depends on CPI’s mood.
First, why did it bounce back yesterday? Oil prices, US Treasury yields, and the dollar all fell together. The 10-year Treasury yield dropped 5 basis points, the dollar fell 0.2%, Brent crude dropped 1.4%, loosening the noose around risk assets’ necks. Plus, there were indeed buyers near 80,961, and the 2-hour and 4-hour MACD started to recover, so it bounced to 83,300.
But Pharaoh must warn you, the short term is overheated. The 15-minute RSI hit 86, like Pharaoh running in the desert for three days gasping for breath. The 1-hour chart is above the moving average, but 83,590 to 83,800 is a resistance zone, capped by the daily moving average band from 83,800 to 84,100. No reversal has been confirmed.
So how to play today? Watch the 82,800 line closely.
Holding 82,800 gives a chance to push to 83,600–83,800. Staying above 83,800 qualifies for a look at 84,100 to 84,350. Breaking below 82,700 weakens the rebound, likely pulling back to 82,300 or even 81,800.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC The funding rate in a perpetual futures contract is a periodic payment between long and short holders, not an OKX fee. A positive rate means longs pay shorts; a negative rate means the opposite. It helps keep the contract price close to the spot price but does not itself predict market direction. Before holding a position, check the rate sign, calculation interval, and the amount of the next payment: the size of the entire position matters, not just the margin posted.#blur plans to disable the blur.io frontend on November 12
[Old Leek Observation] $BLUR Even the official website is shutting down, the NFT market is really changing
There is still one stubborn opensea that has yet to issue tokens
On November 12, Blur will disable the blur.io frontend, and its NFT lending protocol Blend will also stop matching new loans on the same day.
To be clear, not all on-chain contracts will be shut down. Blur's marketplace protocol will continue to operate, but the official trading entry point most familiar to ordinary users will be withdrawn.
This reminds me of the NFT market boom a few years ago. At that time, platforms competed on trading volume, points, and airdrop expectations. Traders frequently bought and sold for rewards, and lending leverage made the market even more lively.
But liveliness does not equal real demand.
When trading volume drops and rewards are no longer enough to attract users, platforms ultimately face a problem: how many people are willing to keep trading without incentives?
Blur's monthly trading volume once reached about $1.43 billion, while The Block data shows that monthly trading volume fell below $7 million in March this year. This gap explains the issue more than just shutting down a website.
Of course, disabling the frontend does not mean the on-chain protocol disappears, and BLUR cannot be judged to be worthless in the future based on this news alone. But for the NFT industry, the real question might be how many genuine users remain from the activity built on incentives.$BTC price has been rising steadily from around 81,000 this morning, which got me really excited. It closed several bullish candles consecutively on the 1-hour chart, MACD formed a golden cross below the zero line, and the red bars started to appear. The recent few candlesticks rebounded quickly, releasing quite a bit of short-term bullish momentum.
But this rally slowed down near 83,500. This level happens to be the 4-hour swing high, which it has tested three times before without breaking through. After the price touched this area, the trading volume on the 15-minute candles also shrank.
Looking at the 4-hour chart, the MACD DIF line is still below zero, the previous candle just formed a death cross, and the histogram remains green. Although the 1-hour rebound momentum has kicked in, the 4-hour indicators are still trending downwards, meaning the larger-scale bearish momentum is not over yet.
Currently, my bias is bearish. The resistance at around 83,500 on the 4-hour chart is right above, and the 4-hour MACD is in a death cross below zero. There is significant resistance here, and without volume expansion, it’s hard to break through, so it will likely pull back first.
$ETH $SOL #September CPI announcement is imminent, Hamark says further rate hikes are still needed #TSMC Q3 revenue hits record high, profitability to be revealed #BTC and ETH spot ETFs see simultaneous outflows, is institutional demand weakening? The upward trend lacks new capital support, so its sustainability is questionable.
$BTC is currently at 83650, with short-term momentum weakening. 84177 is the resistance above, and 83457 is the support below. ETFs continue to see outflows, and on-exchange funds are competing with each other, making it difficult for the rebound to continue.
$ETH at 2534, $ZEC at 1279, their trends are starting to diverge. ZEC shows stronger elasticity but also an increased risk of a high-level pullback.
In a stock market, price increases do not necessarily mean stronger buying. The real key is whether new capital is taking over.
#BTC #ETH #ZEC
#SepCPIHikeWatch #TSMCOct15Earnings #BTCETHETFOutflows #9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 $BTC 本周全球市场最大焦点，美国通胀数据马上登场，美联储官员近期集体放鹰，市场博弈进入白热化阶段。
克利夫兰联储票委最新表态：通胀压力扩散，必要时需要继续收紧货币政策，快速小幅加息，避免后续更大力度紧缩。叠加此前FOMC纪要，多数官员保留年内再加息的选项。
10月议息会议基本确定按兵不动，博弈核心在12月是否再加一次息。CME利率期货显示，12月加息概率已经抬升，一切等待CPI、PPI来验证。
两个核心数据看点
✅ CPI（周三）
- 整体CPI：受油价拉动，存在反弹可能
- 核心CPI（重中之重）：剔除能源食品，看服务通胀粘性，是美联储判断通胀能否回到2%目标的关键
✅ PPI（周四）
生产端先行指标，反映上游企业成本。PPI走强，意味着后续消费通胀有延续压力；如果回落，则代表通胀压力逐步缓解
🔴 通胀超预期走高：12月加息预期升温，美元、美债收益率上行，股市、贵金属承压
🟡 数据符合预期：市场维持震荡，等待更多就业数据佐证
🟢 通胀明显降温：年内加息预期直接降温，风险资产迎来修复窗口
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