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#TSMC Q3 Revenue Hits Record High, Profit Performance Yet to Be Revealed
Q3 revenue is clear, the real battle is this afternoon
Q3 revenue reached NT$1.49 trillion, up 50.9% year-on-year, marking the sixth consecutive quarter of record highs, and even exceeded the company's own guidance (actual about $46.7 billion vs. guidance upper limit of $45.8 billion).
But revenue is just the first half. The real suspense lies in the gross margin: Q3 guidance is 65%-67%, lower than Q2's actual 67.7%—the 2nm ramp-up is expected to dilute by 3-4 points. Whether net profit can outpace revenue growth depends on this.
There is a conference call at 2 PM today, focusing on three points: gross margin level, Q4 guidance, and capex (whether the $60-64 billion will be raised again).
A bit of cold water: the stock price just hit a historic high, and the revenue beat is likely already priced in. The decisive factor this afternoon is not revenue, but whether the profit margin can withstand the 2nm ramp-up.
Withstand = truly beat expectations; fail to withstand = all good news priced in.
This is not investment advice, results will be revealed this afternoon. CPI 利空已經明牌了，為什麼我反而開始注意 BTC 的反彈??
昨天通膨數據超出預期BTC跟著下殺 市場又開始擔心接下來會不會繼續跌。
但我覺得現在有個問題比CPI數字更重要。
當大家都知道是利空的時候幣圈常常出現一種情況消息明明很差，價格卻沒有繼續破底甚至開始反彈。
這不代表利空消失 而是市場可能早就提前反映了一部分。
所以接下來我會特別留意幾個訊號!
空單回補帶動價格上漲 現貨成交量跟上反彈的可信度就會提高。
能不能止跌?
如果BTC回穩ETH$卻繼續走弱代表市場可能還是不願意承擔太多風險。
OI 降下來價格能不能守住?
如果大量槓桿已經被清洗 價格卻沒有再破底反而是值得觀察的訊號。
相反地如果價格繼續跌OI 又快速增加，就得小心新的槓桿部位正在累積。
我現在比較在意的不是猜 BTC 明天漲跌，而是這次利空究竟讓市場變得更脆弱，還是已經清掉一部分過熱的槓桿。
有時候真正的機會不是在利多公布時 而是在利空出來後，市場卻跌不下去的時候!
你們覺得 BTC 這次是準備止跌，還是反彈之後還有下一波呢?#美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期 $BTC $ETH $OKB #TSMCOct15Earnings الإيرادات البالغة 1.49 تريليون مجرد معلومة معلنة، انظر إلى هذه الثلاثة أمور في تقرير الأرباح يوم الخميس
إيرادات TSMC في الربع الثالث بلغت 1.49 تريليون دولار تايواني جديد، بزيادة سنوية +50%، وهو رقم قياسي تاريخي — لكن هذا كان معلناً بالفعل الأسبوع الماضي. العرض الحقيقي في تقرير الأرباح يوم 15 أكتوبر هو هذه الثلاثة أمور أدناه.
أولاً، هامش الربح الإجمالي. التوجيه بين 65%-67%، بينما كان في الربع الثاني 67.7%. مورغان ستانلي يقدر مباشرة 67.5%، والسوق كلها تراهن على الحد الأعلىConclusion first: Whether it can hold depends on $2,400, but today it fell harder than BTC, making it one of the weakest major coins. ETH dropped from $2,508 yesterday to a low of $2,401, closing at $2,423, down 3.41% for the day, with a trading volume of $297 million. CPI was higher than expected, and high Beta assets fell more sharply; ETH is a typical example—it dropped 3.4%, while BTC only fell 2.1%. Look at the structure. Spot price is $2,423, perpetual contracts are aligned with no de-peg. Open interest is about $1.53 billion; funding rate is +0.0087%, slightly positive. Note this detail—price is falling but funding rate is still positive, indicating bulls haven't given up yet. If it continues to fall, there is room for this leverage to be cleared, so watch out for subsequent deleveraging. Look at the position. Currently at $2,423, it has broken below the 7-day moving average ($2,491), 14-day ($2,566), 30-day ($2,608), and 60-day ($2,512)—all four moving averages broken. The 14-day low is $2,401 (yesterday's low), and the 30-day low is $2,358. In other words, it is standing on the previous low of $2,401, which is a short-term lifeline. Market cap is $295.7 billion, ranked 2nd. ETH's fundamentals in DeFi, stablecoins, and RWA remain, providing medium-term support. But the short-term structure has clearly weakened. What about the short-term trend? In the next 1-2 weeks: pessimistic (35%) break below CPI出来后，黄金跌了1.6%，白银跌了3.4%，纳指跌了0.72%。比特币只跌了1.5%，跟黄金差不多。
黄金市值28.7万亿，白银3.2万亿，比特币才1.7万亿。市值只有黄金的十七分之一、白银的一半，跌得却没它们狠。
小市值的东西，抗跌得跟黄金一个水平。这韧性确实有点东西。$BTC is watching one key level today: $81,500
$BTC is currently at $81,345, $ETH at $2,370. The aftershocks of yesterday's CPI 3.7% exceeding expectations haven't faded yet, and the probability of a rate hike in October jumped from 22% to 49%, so the macro headwinds remain. But $BTC is sitting right on the average cost line of US spot ETF holders at $81,500, a level that has already supported two rebounds.
The funding side tells the same story: last week, ETF net outflows were $679 million, the largest since the end of June; but on Tuesday, there were reports that IBIT and FBTC returned about $176 million (source unnamed, to be verified). Some ran when prices fell, others stepped in when they came back.
If $81,500 holds, there is still room to fight today, with the rebound first targeting around $84,000; if the hourly close falls below $81,500, the next target is $77,500. Until the headwinds clear, don't chase the rebound high. 2335止盈一秒打穿，二饼这波空单，吃麻了
兄弟们，刚刚这一根针，空单的都吃麻了吧？
$BTC 直接砸到80000出头，二饼更狠，一口气干到2310。
晒个单：我2511开的ETH空，止盈挂在2335，刚刚一根线直接给我打穿，176点到手，都不带犹豫的。
说实话，我笃定这波要跌，但真没想到跌这么快、这么干脆。
逻辑一点不复杂：昨晚核心CPI 0.3%、整体3.7%，双双超预期，降息剧本当场改成加息。CME显示，2027年1月底前至少加两次的概率冲到73.7%，10月加息概率从21.6%飙到43.7%，维持不动的概率只剩1.2%。数据前还在喊"利空出尽、满仓抄底"的，这一夜全成了燃料，大饼84000就是多头最后一冲的诱多陷阱。
可以看我昨天帖子，我一直说，数据前别追多，反弹是给空头送点位，趋势一旦被宏观掉头，踩踏起来比谁都快。
吃到这波的兄弟，评论区报个喜，让我看看有多少人吃麻了。
没吃到的也别急，加息周期里反弹还会有，机会不止这一次。但记住，第一根针别接飞刀。
以上仅为盘面观察，不构成交易建议。
#美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 巨鲸是怎么操作的？从这次ETH精准做多到CPI后平仓说起
一个巨鲸8月19日以约1936美元开立2万枚ETH多单，持仓超过56天，最高浮盈约1700万美元，最终在CPI偏热引发回落后平仓，锁定约893万美元利润。
这波巨鲸的典型操作，背后却是真正的交易圣经：
·低位提前布局而非追高；
·中线持仓，能扛住浮盈大幅回撤；
·以明确宏观事件（CPI）作为退出信号，而非死扛目标价；
·优先锁定确定利润，不追求完美卖点。
昨天的CPI确实有点爆冷，
同比3.7%高于预期推升美债收益率与加息预期，
BTC从近84000回落至81500附近，ETH跌至2410–2430区间，多头清算增加。
我判断：
$BTC 下方支撑81000–80500，失守或看向80000；
上方压力82500–83000，强压84000。
$ETH 支撑2380–2400，失守可能测试2350；
上方压力2480–2500，强压2550。
短期宏观仍主导，巨鲸选择落袋而非继续赌反弹，体现了风控优先。
关注后续通胀数据与Fed表态。#美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 Good morning, the crypto market today is not a "rollercoaster of sharp rises and falls," but more like institutions rearranging the table, gamblers exchanging chips, and regulators tightening access controls. 1. Market overview: BTC hasn't collapsed, ETH is a bit tired BTC is grinding in the 77,000–78,000 range, the fear and greed index has dropped back to "neutral to slightly cold," and the options market is not very excited in the short term. ETH is weak in following the rise and even fell compared to the previous period; the market no longer trusts the old script of "ETH will soon surge to previous highs," focusing more on whether staking income and L2 fees can support the valuation. Total market cap is about 2.6 trillion USD, with trading volume declining compared to the previous period, indicating this is not a bull frenzy but a selective washout. 2. Regulation: Licenses abroad, source blocked domestically China continues to clamp down on virtual currencies and RWA tokenization as illegal financial risks: currency exchange, matching, pricing, token financing, and domestic RWA intermediaries all cross red lines; issuing RMB stablecoins recklessly is also forbidden. Overseas, regulation is more about "incorporation": Thailand allows BTC and ETH spot ETFs to trade on exchanges starting 10/16; the UK is revising payment rules to accommodate tokenized deposits; Singapore's OCBC issues tokenized gold on ETH/Solana; Russia has passed the first reading of a crypto legalization framework. In short: the West is pushing crypto into "securities/funds/payment pipelines," while the East treats crypto as "money laundering and espionage funding risks" to be blocked. 3. Major industry events: Money flows to places "explainable to regulators" Tokenized gold/funds/government bonds are becoming attractive: Legal & General#台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓
台积电Q3营收同比大增50%创新高，但市场并未追捧，核心焦点不在已落地的营收，而在盈利与未来指引。
公司给出Q3毛利率65%-67%，较Q2的67.7%环比下行，扩产带来的资本开支抬升是主要压力。营收高增由AI代工订单驱动，但扩产成本会侵蚀利润。
当前股价下跌2%属于“买预期、卖事实”，营收利好已被提前消化。财报真正看点：一是实际毛利率靠近区间上沿还是下限；二是Q4营收指引，验证AI需求能否延续；三是资本开支是否进一步上调。
若毛利率接近67%、Q4指引强劲、开支可控，股价有望修复；反之贴近65%下限、指引疲软、开支大增，则会继续承压。AI产业链景气度也可借这份财报侧面印证。$UNI #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 Uniswap V4重大升级解读
Uniswap正式上线搭载VolatilePair Hook的全新ETH/USDC交易池，实现买卖双向差异化费率，打破传统DEX统一手续费的固有模式。
传统AMM机制费率固定，极端行情下，套利机器人会快速攫取波动收益，流动性提供者持续承担无常损失，收益严重被稀释。
依托V4可编程Hook智能合约，新池子可实时识别市场趋势：顺趋势交易低费率，逆势大额冲击交易加收动态手续费，有效抬高机器人逆向套利成本，抑制高频恶意套利。
此次升级核心是重塑链上交易利益结构，保护LP收益、降低无常损失，将行情波动价值留存生态内部。
这也是Uniswap V4可编程生态的关键落地，标志DEX从基础代币兑换，正式迈入智能、可风控、可策略定制的链上金融新阶段。#TSMCOct15Earnings Doanh thu quý 3 của TSMC bùng nổ, nhưng ngày 15 tháng 10 mới là kỳ thi thực sự
1,49 nghìn tỷ Đài tệ, tăng trưởng 50% so với cùng kỳ, mức cao kỷ lục lịch sử — doanh thu quý 3 của TSMC đã được chốt sớm và vượt mức dự báo tối đa. Nhưng con số này không còn quan trọng nữa, kỳ vọng thị trường đã được đẩy lên rất cao, những gì ban quản lý nói trong cuộc họp pháp lý mới quyết định giá cổ phiếu sẽ tăng hay giảm.
Bốn câu hỏi quyết định hướng đi
$TSM #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓
#台积电Q3营收创新高，10月15日财报还有哪些看点？
你觉得台积电这次财报还能再刷纪录吗？
最新数据看，台积电三季度营收飙到1.49万亿新台币，折合约467亿美元，同比大增51% $TSM
市场预测净利润达7463亿新台币，真落地就是连续六季盈利创新高。在AI这波行情里，它依然是稳坐钓鱼台的卖水人
相比三季度成绩，大家更关注两个变数
▶️毛利率与指引
上季毛利率67.7%，官方预估三季度在65%到67%。在3纳米被英伟达和苹果抢爆背景下，看管理层会不会上调全年营收增速和追加资本开支
▶️得州建厂这出戏
马斯克抛出Terafab芯片园区计划，台积电或只是承租。亚利桑那州厂还没搞定，跑去德州并不紧迫，像是2030年后的远期布局或地缘博弈筹码
相比芯片制造，真正卡脖子的是先进封装CoWoS，封测产能跟不上，AI芯片照样交不出货
后期预计
▶️短线谨防利好出尽
即便数据拉满，若毛利率指引放缓，股价短期可能震荡回踩
▶️长期护城河极深
巨头自研芯片短期离不开其技术与良率，未来几年它仍是AI红利最大受益者 #MetaQ3AISpendingOutlook #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓
其实现在财报营收亮眼，然后市场不买账，下跌这种次数也越来越多了。主要原因还是，第一点是利好出尽，因为在这个财报公布之前，大家就都有判断出来，台积电业绩肯定很好，毕竟还是一家独大，他负责代工很多芯片之类的。目前还没有一个老二能挑战他。。第二个原因还是整体的这个半导体板块重挫，尤其是三星海力士，他们的巨幅下跌也会影响台积电的走向。所以这次，其实台积电依旧是可以考虑逢低买入的，经济危机 2027 年下半年最早来，所以还有差不多半年一年左右的时间可以操作。台积电刚砸出来的这份 Q3 成绩单，如果只看营收和净利润双创新高，对经常看盘的老手来说其实没啥新鲜感，无非是 AI 算力需求还在主板上疯狂撕裂产能。
其实是它在面对海外建厂成本失控和 2nm 早期吃产能的“吞金”压力下，毛利率居然还能直奔指引上限去。这说明先进制程对于下游芯片巨头的议价权，比大家想象的还要霸道。
说白了，无论是英伟达还是苹果，根本没有第二个选择。只要你的算力芯片想在能效比上压死对手，就只能老老实实给台积电交过路费。
很多人担心管理层大幅砸钱提高资本开支会拖垮短期的现金流和利润率，但我反而觉得这是最硬核的护城河打法。在晶圆代工这个极其吃重资产和技术壁垒的赛道里，逆周期和顺周期疯狂扩产的本质，就是用海量资金砸出下一代节点的绝对垄断。
华尔街维持买入评级其实逻辑很简单，他们看的不是一两个季度的折旧成本波动，而是整个 AI 基础设施建设潮里，谁才是拿走最确定性利润的真正庄家。
只要下游算力叙事没有彻底熄火，台积电这种靠工艺领先锁死下游定价权的逻辑就不会变。成本压力是真的，但通过定价权转移成本的能力也是真的。
#台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 CPI数据落地，整体通胀超预期，核心通胀同步走高，美联储那个“仅靠能源涨价”的借口彻底被撕碎了。市场应声大跌，下一步走势该怎么看？
数据出来后大饼$BTC 直接跌破8.2万，ETF资金本来就在往外跑，现在宏观预期一收紧，买盘更不敢进来了。如果今天守不住8万，下面就是7万8。
以太$ETH 最惨，它本来就是三个里最弱的，ETF持续失血，质押收益又跑不过美债，机构在下面根本不接盘。大饼一软它跌得最狠，今天又是持续下跌，估计短时间很难企稳。
黄金$XAUT 也大跌，现货金跌了将近2个点。核心通胀超预期推高了实际利率，美元和美债收益率一起往上顶，不生息的黄金短期只能挨捶。但黄金今天迅速反弹，因为ETF配置盘还在持续流入，央行也没停手。它跟大饼最大的区别在于，大饼的接盘方是链上巨鲸，黄金的接盘方是央行和主权基金。后者的资金属性和耐心，完全不在一个量级。
大饼和以太现货底仓拿稳，短线杠杆全卸。黄金短期承压，但底子比大饼硬。#美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 @OKX星球 台积电Q3营收创历史新高，真正的看点或许在Q4
台积电即将公布Q3完整财报。
从此前公布的月度数据来看，Q3营收约1.49万亿新台币，同比增长约50%，创下历史新高。
但对于投资者而言，营收创新高只是第一步，真正值得关注的，是这份业绩能否继续支撑市场对AI产业链的乐观预期。
我认为，接下来有三个关键观察点：
1️⃣ 毛利率能否维持高位
市场关注的毛利率指引约为65%—67%。如果营收持续增长，但毛利率出现明显回落，就需要进一步观察先进制程扩张、资本开支及成本变化对盈利能力的影响。
2️⃣ Q4业绩指引能否超预期
股价交易的不只是已经发生的业绩，更是未来的增长预期。
当市场已经充分计入AI需求增长时，单纯交出一份漂亮的财报，未必足以推动股价继续上涨。真正重要的是，公司对未来的判断是否比市场预期更乐观。
3️⃣ AI需求能否转化为持续的盈利增长
AI产业的长期逻辑仍然值得关注，但投资者也需要区分两个问题：AI需求是否真实存在，以及当前股价是否已经充分反映了这种增长。
好公司，不一定时时刻刻都是好价格。
#台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 #NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 台积电2026 Q3营收创出历史新高，营收1.49万亿新台币（约467亿美元），同比+51%，超市场预期。
核心驱动力来自AI高性能计算订单，5nm/3nm先进制程满载，苹果手机业务回暖形成支撑，毛利率维持高位。
⚠️风险：业绩高度绑定AI资本开支周期；美国建厂推高成本，地缘、行业竞争存在不确定性。
重点看后续四季度业绩指引，财报数据亮眼不代表股价一定上涨，利好容易兑现回落。#台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 台积电今天发财报，结果盘前先跌2%。
现在从484的高点已经跌了12%。MA5、MA10、MA20全在头上压着，跟BTC一模一样。
Q3营收涨50%是明牌，上周就知道了。市场现在就赌一件事：毛利率能不能撑在67%以上。
昨晚CPI刚爆，今晚还有PPI和零售数据。这种时候发财报，就算数字好看，大盘要是接着跌，台积电也扛不住。
之前期权市场押注财报后波动±5%，过去四次平均才2.87%。预期拉满了，这种位置最怕"利好兑现"？指引稍微软一点，股价照样砸。 #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 还挺有意思的#台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓
The 10-year US Treasury yield is approaching 5%, but the market still seems skeptical.
The Treasury is buying back long-term bonds, theoretically providing support to the market, yet yields continue to rise.
I feel the market's focus is no longer just on whether interest rates are high, but on how much debt the US will issue in the coming years.
Inflation hasn't been fully suppressed, fiscal spending hasn't stopped, and the debt scale keeps growing. Looking at these factors together, it's hard for long-term capital to feel completely at ease.
This is actually a rather interesting phase for the crypto market.
On one hand, US Treasury yields nearing 5% will indeed divert some risk capital; on the other hand, if the high yields reflect increasing debt pressure, some funds will seek alternatives outside of US Treasuries.
Gold has been performing well recently, and $BTC is also doing fine. I think this is somewhat related to this macro backdrop.
In the past, people liked to compare BTC with the Nasdaq, but now more and more are starting to discuss BTC, gold, and US Treasuries within the same framework.
This shift itself might be more worth paying attention to than short-term price fluctuations.$ETH $BTC
1小时爆仓4.6亿，多头遭遇血洗
刚才一小时全网爆仓4.6亿，
几乎全是多单被抬走，
ETH和BTC同时跳水，
持仓量断崖式往下掉，
说明是多头踩踏，
不是正常回调。
当前价格仍受压于均线下方，
MACD死叉未改；
若无法快速收复失地并站稳支撑位，
空头趋势将延续。
市场处于极度弱势，
短期依然看空，
但需警惕超跌后的报复性反弹。
建议等待反弹至关键阻力位受阻后再顺势操作，
严控杠杆，
防范插针风险。 #TSMCOct15Earnings TSMC's revenue has already exceeded expectations, so what is the Thursday earnings call really about?
TSMC's Q3 revenue was actually announced early, about $46.7 billion, higher than the company's own forecast of $44.6 to $45.8 billion. The Thursday earnings call isn't about revenue, but about the costs behind that revenue.
The first hurdle is gross margin. The Q3 guidance is 65% to 67%, with a midpoint of 66%, which is 1.7 percentage points lower than Q2's 67.7%, Capital inflow ≠ reversal! Don't be fooled by the first bullish candle (｡•́︿•̀｡)
$BTC 83,314, ETH 2,496, SOL 106.61.
The single-day ETF data looks pretty good: BTC net inflow of 176 million, ETH 24.8 million, SOL is still quietly slipping away. But looking at the 7-day span — overall still bleeding. One day's inflow is at best a drowning person surfacing for air, not meaning they've reached shore (￣▽￣)*
The market language is more honest: BTC is resistant to falling, ETH and $SOL are weak-legged. Without capital forming a united front, where is the full-scale attack?
Tonight's September CPI release is the real touchstone. Before the data is announced, I don't care who jumps first — those rushing to run often get buried in false breakouts (╯﹏╰)
My verification logic is simple:
🔸 Only BTC rises → partial recovery, don't get excited
🔸 ETH and SOL rise together → then the rebound is credible
Real opportunities never lie in the first sharp rising candle but after the market has folded (๑•̀ㅂ•́)و✧
Is this inflow a prelude to reversal or a continuation of the downtrend? We'll know tonight. Don't rush to bottom-fish; wait for the market to show its cards first. #US September CPI YoY rises to 3.7%, core inflation exceeds expectations #TSMC Q3 revenue hits record high, profit performance to be revealed #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 台积电今天发财报，结果盘前先跌2%。
现在425，从484的高点已经跌了12%。MA5、MA10、MA20全在头上压着，跟BTC一个德行。
Q3营收涨50%是明牌，上周就知道了。市场现在就赌一件事：毛利率能不能撑在67%以上。
问题是大环境不对。昨晚CPI刚爆，今晚还有PPI和零售数据。这种时候发财报，就算数字好看，大盘要是接着跌，台积电也扛不住。
之前期权市场押注财报后波动±5%，过去四次平均才2.87%。预期拉满了，这种位置最怕"利好兑现"——营收创历史新高又怎样？指引稍微软一点，股价照样砸。
而且你看最近这走势，财报前先跌12%，像是有人提前跑了。Revenue of 1.49 trillion is just the obvious card; watch these three things in Thursday's earnings report
TSMC's Q3 revenue hit 1.49 trillion New Taiwan dollars, up 50% year-on-year, a historic high — but this was already known, announced last week. The real highlights of the October 15 earnings report are the following three points.
First, gross margin. Guidance is 65%-67%, while Q2 was 67.7%. Morgan Stanley directly estimates 67.5%, and the market is fully betting on the high end. Whether人来了，币就一定有人买吗？
$DOGE 我觉得最容易被忽略的，是支付和持有其实是两回事。
拿它买东西的人多了，当然有助于使用，但商家收到后如果马上换回现金，买入需求也可能很快变成卖出。
它每年仍有约50亿枚新增供应，只是新增部分占总量的比例逐渐下降。
所以我更想看，热闹过去以后，还有多少人愿意保留余额。能花出去是一种用途，愿意留下来又是另一层需求。
$WLD 也得拆开看，身份验证有用，不代表使用者都需要买币。
World ID、应用和WLD属于同一个网络，但各自解决的问题不同，不能把验证人数直接当成代币购买人数。
我的判断标准很简单：一个人验证完身份以后，还有什么事情需要持续用到WLD？
这个问题说清楚，用户增长对币价的意义才好判断。
$RENDER 的关系更直接一些，计算任务付费会对应代币销毁，但网络同时也有奖励发行。
所以只看销毁数字也不够，还得看客户是否反复付费、订单能不能延续。一次大单可以让数据好看，持续回来的客户，才更能说明这门生意有没有站住。#台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓
说我的预期，分三层看：
已经基本成定局的：营收
台积电每月公布营收，三个月加总已经出来了：Q3 合计约 1.494 万亿新台币（约 467 亿美元）、同比 +51%，已经超过公司自己给的 446–458 亿美元指引区间，也高于分析师平均预期的 1.46 万亿。所以营收这块没有悬念，是"已知的好"。
大概率落点：利润和毛利率
市场共识：净利润约 7,400 亿新台币上下（同比约 +65%）、每份 ADR 盈利约 4.4 美元。毛利率公司指引 65%–67%（二季度是 67.7%，指引本身就预告了环比稀释，来自 2nm 爬坡和海外厂）。我的预期是落在指引中上沿——需求和产能利用率摆在那儿，真正的考验是稀释幅度别超预期。#美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验
一小时4.76亿美金爆仓！多头踩踏复盘+盘面思路
✅爆仓核心原因
1. 根源：CPI超预期的宏观利空
美国9月CPI、核心CPI双双高于预期，市场重新定价美联储加息概率，美债收益率上行、美元走强。加密属于无息风险资产，大资金先选择减仓避险，BTC、ETH现货ETF本来就在持续净流出，没有足够买盘承接抛压。
2. 连锁：多头集中止损触发踩踏
前期很多资金博弈CPI利好，提前挂了多单，支撑位附近堆积大量多头仓位。价格下破关键位置后，止损单被批量触发，止损单本身又变成卖盘，进一步砸低价格，形成负向循环（越跌越爆、越爆越跌）
3. 结构：ETH是重灾区
ETH弹性远大于BTC，杠杆资金更喜欢在ETH上加仓做多，所以这次ETH爆仓金额（1.99亿）超过比特币，跌幅也更深（24h -5.54%）。
📌接下来盘面怎么理解 & 操作思路
盘面信号解读
1. 短时间大额多头爆仓，短期会释放一部分抛压，但不等于马上见底反弹
爆仓是被动强平盘，强平盘砸完之后会短暂缺少集中卖盘，容易出现小幅反抽；但宏观利空逻辑还在（加息预期抬升），反抽大概率是弱反弹，很难直接反转走大涨。
2. 重点盯之前说的两道防守支撑
• BTC：第一防守81500，强支撑80000
• ETH：第一防守2400，强支撑2300
当前ETH已经跌破2400第一防守线，现在正在测试2300一线；如果2300被有效砸穿，会开启新一轮杠杆踩踏。
3. ZEC这类小盘隐私币：大盘杀多头的环境下，山寨币风险更大，下跌空间更容易失控，支撑参考意义会变弱。
分持仓情况给思路
🔹如果你现在持有多单：
• 没有设置止损、仓位很重：不要盲目扛单，宏观利空没消失，一旦跌破强支撑，会迎来新一轮爆仓潮；小幅反弹优先减仓控风险。
• 轻仓多单：反弹不要急于加仓，把止损下移到新的低点下方，严格控损。
🔹如果你是空单：
• 现在属于利空兑现阶段，短期已经集中爆仓一波，不适合追空！
追空很容易踩“利空落地、超跌反弹”的短期反转插针，容易被扫止损；可以等反弹到压力位再看机会。
🔹空仓观望：
优先观望为主，CPI这个宏观利空需要时间消化。等两个信号再考虑进场：要么价格守住强支撑、止跌横盘；要么美联储官员表态缓和，加息预期降温。不要去猜底、抄底。
#韩股盘中跌近8%，全球科技股集体承压
$BTC $ETH $SNDK 币圈赚大钱的公式，我已经越来越有自己的思考了。做好这5点，基本上资金就能实现复利，一步一个台阶，赚的利润也越来越多。首先得选好标的，币圈很容易选，只有大饼和以太，然后就是耐心等待它俩的暴跌。
我说的暴跌，指的是高点跌下来至少50%，然后分批挂单买入，争取买成重仓。然后就是长期持有，无论什么样的回调和利空，就是不下车，坚定待在车上。最后便是在情绪高昂时，市场都在喊永恒牛市的时候，分批出货，保住利润。
周而复始，何愁拿不到大结果。事实上我入圈经历的两轮牛市，走的就是这个路数。2020年均价8000，长期持有到2021年5.4万卖出，2022年1.8万均价长期持有，2025年11到12万分批卖出。
这次2026年其实我也是类似路数，大饼12.6万跌到6.3万开始分批建仓。只是这轮熊市，跌的有点太少，我才买了两层仓位，就大v天龙了。我现在也只能继续耐心等待机会的出现了，让我追高fomo8万以上的大饼，是不可能的。无非是踏空而已，踏空又不亏钱，何况还有两成仓在车上和8成仓在理财，心态其实也还好。#TSMCOct15Earnings Doanh thu quý 3 của TSMC thực ra đã được công bố từ lâu, khoảng 46,7 tỷ USD, cao hơn dự báo của công ty là từ 44,6 đến 45,8 tỷ USD. Cuộc họp báo cáo tài chính vào thứ Năm không phải để kiểm tra doanh thu, mà là chi phí đằng sau doanh thu.
Thử thách đầu tiên là tỷ suất lợi nhuận gộp. Dự báo quý 3 là từ 65% đến 67%, trung bình 66%, thấp hơn 1,7 điểm phần trăm so với 67,7% của quý 2, nguyên nhân là do việc tăng công suất 2nm làm loãng khoảng 3 đến 4 điểm phần trăm.After the US CPI data was released yesterday, US Treasury bonds initially plunged, with yields rising to near historical highs. However, as the stock market fluctuated and declined, Treasury bonds instead oscillated upward, eventually closing near the day's high, forming a V-shaped reversal.
This market movement is quite interesting. The initial drop in Treasury bonds was due to the CPI month-on-month exceeding expectations, which reignited market concerns about the Fed raising interest rates again soon. But the subsequent rise was more likely driven by a flight-to-safety effect (i.e., the safe-haven attribute of US Treasuries returning). This also reflects the market's overall acceptance of the current yield levels (combined with recent Treasury auction results, it is evident that primary market demand for Treasuries is significantly improving).
The midterm election period is approaching, during which the US stock market is unlikely to perform well. Instead, AI hardware stocks are facing downward adjustment pressure after repeated declines, so funds are flowing into US Treasuries. Whether the Fed continues to raise rates in the short term or not will not change this capital flight to safety.
Finally, there is, of course, another possibility: when the global economy faces a recession, stocks fall and bonds rise, which is normal. However, there is currently insufficient evidence for this assumption (the high CPI itself is one sign of an overheating economy). #USCPI exceeds expectations, rising to 3.7%, and tonight PPI faces another test Nearly $200 million flowed back in a single day—Is the bull market coming back? Don't rush to celebrate yet—$BTC is reported at $83,314, $ETH at $2,496, and $SOL at $106.61; none of the three major mainstream assets have experienced a full-blown breakout rally. The ETF data for the day looks impressive: $BTC net inflow of $176 million, $ETH net inflow of $24.8 million, while $SOL saw a slight net outflow; but looking at the 7-day picture, all three remain under pressure. This is the most worth pondering contradiction right now: ETF funds are flowing in, but $BTC prices are retreating. This divergence itself is the answer. A single day of capital inflow never equals a trend reversal; it is more like a breather, not a trumpet call. What truly determines the direction is whether the funds can form sustained resonance, not just a good number on one day. Structurally, $BTC's resilience to decline is clearly stronger than $ETH and $SOL, the latter two being less elastic, indicating that funds have not yet launched a full-scale offensive. This differentiation sends a very direct signal: the current situation looks more like a consolidation during a downtrend, not the start of a new trend. Only when $ETH and $SOL follow suit can the recovery be credible; relying solely on $BTC's solo rise can only be defined as a local rebound. Tonight, the US September CPI data will be released, with core inflation exceeding expectations, and the Fed's rate hike path divergence still to be digested. Before the data release, guessing who will lead the rally is meaningless; after the data release, what really needs to be watched is whether the three major coins can increase volume in the same direction. This is the hard indicator to verify fund resonance. Opportunity Gold seems to have stabilized, but Bitcoin has been moving downwards. Why?
Bitcoin has already broken below the lower boundary of its consolidation range first, but we can see that besides Bitcoin, most other major altcoins have also broken below their recent consolidation ranges.
So Bitcoin has more followers, continuously moving down in this downtrend flood. Although Bitcoin is still relatively strong compared to other major altcoins and remains around the 80,000 high level, when all major altcoins roll down along with the Nasdaq, it also can't hold up.
Additionally, have you noticed that since the Nasdaq 100 index runs around the clock, Bitcoin and gold now tend to follow the Nasdaq 100 more closely, with less relation to the S&P so far. And the US index I watch the most is the Nasdaq 100.
Gold still has some support from national reserve funds and institutional capital, but personally, I feel that without a substantial reversal candlestick, this support will also face selling pressure, especially if the Nasdaq index continues to probe lower. $XAU $ETH I'm firmly bullish, not shorting.
2412, red candle, amplitude only 0.24%, the market looks dead like a still pond. But the quieter it is, the more it feels like someone is quietly accumulating chips underneath. From 2725 it was smashed down, the two rebounds at 2580 and 2540 both failed to hold, MA30 pressing at 2467, the structure indeed looks bad—I won't pretend otherwise. But the 2400 level has been stepped on countless times, each time pulled back, never truly broken. Today's low was 2401.37, again holding close. If it were really going to crash, it wouldn't stop exactly here every time.
The rapid sell-off and quick pullback indicate selling pressure is being vented, not continuous dumping. The ones taking over are not retail investors; retail investors don't have the patience to repeatedly place orders at the same price.
My strategy: enter in batches between 2400-2408, add a position on a wick down to 2385, cut position size in half, and lower leverage. No chasing highs, no getting impulsive over a big bullish candle. Stop loss at 2372, exit immediately if broken, no holding or averaging down—I've learned that lesson the hard way from previous forced liquidations.
Take profit in three stages: sell one-third at 2440, which is the dense area of the previous sharp sell-off; sell another third at 2467, the MA30 hurdle to watch the candle's reaction; leave the rest until 2510, if it goes up, consider it market's reward.
Is the rebound a bull trap? Possibly. But I'd rather take a small loss at support and stop out than chase shorts on a break and get slapped back. Direction is bullish, pace is slow.Yesterday, Yaoyao choosing to bottom-fish at $ETH 2480 was a huge mistake, but fortunately, the stop loss at 2450 was timely, resulting in a loss of nearly 2000u😡😡
How will the September CPI impact crude oil and US Treasury trends?
US Treasuries: Inflation is off the charts, US Treasuries are being sold off, and yields are soaring! A stronger dollar means pressure on the stock market, crypto market, and gold. The shadow of high interest rates weighs heavily on the market again. As long as yields remain high, a major market rebound is unlikely.
Crude Oil: Much of this inflation is driven by rising oil prices. On one hand, high inflation strengthens rate hikes (bearish for oil prices); on the other hand, Middle East geopolitical conflicts support oil prices, creating a contradictory market. Short-term, expect high-level volatility. Geopolitics remains the main variable for oil.
Crypto Market: With rising rate hike expectations, ETH plunged straight from 2523 to 2411! BTC crashed from 8400 to 8151, and altcoins fell even harder. Do not try to bottom-fish in the near term! #USCPI exceeds expectations, rising to 3.7%, PPI test tonight #TSMC Q3 revenue hits record high, profit performance to be revealed #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes a new focus # US CPI Surpasses Expectations to 3.7%, PPI Faces Another Test Tonight
CPI exceeding expectations triggers a sharp drop, decline logic + defensive support levels
Core reasons for the decline
1. US September CPI and core CPI both exceeded expectations, raising rate hike expectations and pushing US Treasury yields higher, putting pressure on the valuation of non-yielding crypto assets;
2. BTC and ETH spot ETFs continue to see net outflows, institutional funds are already withdrawing, lacking buying support;
3. The decline triggered a chain of leveraged liquidations, with forced sell-offs further accelerating the price drop;
4. ZEC is a privacy small-cap coin; when risk appetite declines, funds prioritize abandoning thematic altcoins, amplifying the drop.
Defensive support by coin (First defense = short-term first lifeline, breaking it tends to accelerate the decline; Second defense = strong support, multiple dense chip zones)
✅ BTC Bitcoin
• Short-term first defense: 81500, the first line of defense for short-term bulls; holding here will lead to a consolidation bottoming process;
• Key strong defense: 80000 (round number + dense options support)
• After breaking 80000, the next target range: 77000-78000, selling pressure will significantly increase
✅ ETH Ethereum (more elastic, falls faster)
• Short-term first defense: 2400
• Key strong defense: 2300, this is a previous chip concentration area
• Breaking below 2300, look down to around 2180, where DeFi staking and leveraged positions are concentrated and prone to liquidation
$BTC $ETH $ZEC TSMC's Q3 revenue hits a record high, what are the key points to watch in the earnings night?
TSMC will release its full Q3 earnings report and hold a briefing on October 15. According to the disclosed monthly data, Q3 revenue is about NT$1.49 trillion, a year-on-year surge of 50%, directly setting a new historical revenue record. The company previously guided a Q3 gross margin of 65%-67%.
With revenue data already confirmed, market focus shifts to whether profits can be realized simultaneously. The core driver of this high growth is AI computing demand; orders for Nvidia chips, ASICs, and CoWoS advanced packaging remain robust, serving as the main engine driving performance.
Notably, despite the record-high revenue, TSM and xTSM stocks have already seen a pullback, as capital is preemptively trading on earnings expectations. If gross margin falls short of expectations, a sell-off triggered by "good news being priced in turning into bad news" could occur.
Tonight's earnings focus will be on gross margin, capital expenditures, and the outlook for subsequent AI orders. The high AI market sentiment remains, but the stock price has already priced in most of the positives in the short term. Avoid blindly chasing the rally and be especially cautious of volatility risks after the good news is realized.
#TSMC Q3 revenue hits record high, profitability performance to be revealed Today $BTC is hovering around 81,500, grinding close to the 50-day moving average (about 81,100-81,200).
The four bear-to-bull turning points you mentioned do look quite similar: after breaking above the 50-day MA, it almost always comes back to test it around 40-50 days later, with a roughly 30% gain during that period. History loves to repeat this script.
But the key difference comes afterward: • In 2015 and 2019, after the retest, it didn’t break below and then directly surged at least 50%; • In 2023, it first broke below, scared some people, then quickly recovered, and still went on to gain 50%.
At this position now, it depends on whether it wants to do the “elegant retest” like the first two cases or the “scare first then recover” version like 2023.
Recently it dropped from 84,000-86,000, just enough to test the 50-day MA, then bounced back. The short-term RSI is around 46, neither hot nor cold, and the short MAs are still pressing down, a bit grinding. But the mid-term structure remains intact, with the 50-day still above the 200-day, so the big picture is not broken.
Currently, it looks more like the “standard retest script is playing out” rather than the trend turning bearish. Whether it rallies directly or breaks down first then recovers, history offers two possibilities, and the market hasn’t chosen a side yet.
Don’t rush to open positions betting on the script; first see if it can hold steady around here. If it stabilizes, then look up to 84,000-85,000; if it breaks, then consider if it’s the 2023 pattern. This grinding back and forth at this level is the easiest way to wear people out, but historically, after the grind, there’s often a play.
(The above is pure speculation and not any advice; don’t blame me if you lose money.)01 An impressive report card also brings a tougher question. A quarterly revenue of $16.8 billion, adjusted profitability achieved, and a target valuation exceeding $2 trillion. Anthropic, the company behind Claude, is pushing the AI company IPO story to a new scale. According to Reuters on October 14, citing sources attending an investor meeting, Anthropic's third-quarter revenue reached $16.8 billion. The Financial Times reported the same, stating the company told investors it was profitable on an adjusted basis for the quarter. This information was obtained from the meeting and cannot yet be considered a public audited financial report. Seeing these numbers, it's easy to conclude: AI has finally moved from burning cash to making money. But on the other hand, confidential IPO documents previously reviewed by Reuters show the company has at least $518 billion in commitments for computing power and infrastructure spending over about ten years. What I want to understand more is: can the money customers pay in outpace the money the company promises to pay out? This issue concerns not only one company's IPO but also how we understand the entire AI industry chain's excitement. 02 $16.8 billion is important, but don't rush to multiply it into the future. $16.8 billion is quarterly revenue, not an annualized run rate derived from a single month's income, nor is it profit already in hand. For AI business observation, this is a significant distinction. It means discussions can finally focus more on paid demand: some are willing to pay for model capabilities. But this revenue report card still doesn't answer how long customers used the service or the priceAre shorts becoming fuel again? (╯°□°）╯︵ ┻━┻
The harshest thing about this market isn't the drop, but how it punishes stubbornness. Just when you accept the downtrend, shorts get lifted; the more it falls, the braver the shorts get, and just when you add to your position, a rebound knocks on the door.
Midday liquidation: 1H 5.6 million, shorts 76%; 4H 20.19 million, shorts 71%; 24H BTC 32.85 million, shorts 78.7%, ETH 63.5%. This isn't ordinary stop-loss, it's a chain short squeeze: price bounces → shorts cover → buying pushes price up → next batch forced liquidations, accelerating the cycle (๑•̀ㅂ•́)و✧.
But don't mistake the rebound for a reversal. ETF net outflow this week is 679 million, ETH outflow 542 million; Coinbase premium once turned negative, indicating spot buying didn't keep up, more so passive derivative covering. Korean stocks fell 5.5%, CPI is looming, volatility will only get crazier (｡•́︿•̀｡).
Now just watch the pullbacks: BTC 81300–82000 (400-day moving average) must hold; ETH 2480–2495, especially 2494 cannot be lost. Only if someone steps in is it real buying; if no one steps in, it's just a false fire. $BTC $ETH $ZEC ##Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes a new focus
Sister U 10.15 Thursday $ETH strategy
Entry conditions: Rebound rises back to the 2440-2460 range, 1-hour candlestick shows a long upper shadow after a spike, rebound momentum gradually weakens, confirm stagnation before attempting short.
Stop loss position: Price effectively holds above 2480, bulls strongly counterattack, abandon short strategy and exit.
First take profit target: 2400
Second take profit target: 2350
Market logic: Last night’s CPI data exceeded expectations, Ethereum quickly plunged from the short-term high of 2529, bottoming near 2401, with a sharper decline compared to BTC. After the concentrated release of bearish power, it is currently consolidating sideways at a low level between 2420-2440, the market turning from strong to weak, in a phase of shock digestion after a big drop. The short-term overall strategy is mainly high short positions, supplemented by low buys. Prioritize shorting rebounds at resistance zones to bet on a second decline, do not pre-place short orders early, wait for confirmation of stagnation candlesticks before entering to avoid short-term false bullish rebounds triggering stop losses. US September CPI year-on-year 3.7%, month-on-month 0.6%, overall in line with expectations; the real surprise is the core CPI, month-on-month 0.3%, year-on-year 2.6%, both higher than expected and rising for three consecutive months — inflation excluding oil prices is still climbing.
There are three driving factors: energy is the strongest, gasoline rose 9.1% month-on-month, contributing more than half of the increase, due to US-Iran conflict, Brent crude surpassing $100, and diesel prices hitting a record high;
Food is stable for now, but high diesel costs are transmitting, Pepsi has already raised prices; the most troublesome is the spread of core price increases, with housing, medical care, leisure, transportation, used cars, and IT goods all accelerating month-on-month, only communications declined.
Market: The US dollar index rose to 102.53, an 18-month high; the 10-year US Treasury yield broke 5.3% intraday and closed at 5.188%; Nasdaq fell 1.88%, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 4.3% for six consecutive days, Apple rose 0.5% against the trend becoming the second $5 trillion company;
Gold fell below $4100, silver dropped over 6%. Asia-Pacific under pressure, Hang Seng Index opened down 0.8%, Hang Seng Tech fell 2.21%.
Policy: The probability of a rate hike in October jumped from 21.6% to 43.7%, but Federal Reserve officials generally say there is no rush to act — long-term rates have exceeded 5%, the dollar broke 102.
Financial conditions have already tightened, and September nonfarm payrolls were only 29,000, with the previous value revised down by 60,000. The mainstream expectation: no change in October, another 25 basis points hike in December.
The key is watching Wash's speech Thursday night in Bangkok (the last window before the blackout period), September PCE and oil prices. Conclusion: data changes the pace, not the direction, the decisive factor remains oil prices. #CPI and PPI cooling simultaneously, rate hike divergence expanding #US September CPI YoY rises to 3.7%, core inflation exceeds expectations
This morning's abnormal market movement of "gold rising, crude oil falling" can be summed up in one sentence: the market was scared by last night's US inflation data and the early morning crash of the Japanese and Korean stock markets. What everyone is now fearing is not "war," but "economic stagflation."
Last night, the US released the latest CPI inflation rate, which surged directly to 3.7%, surpassing everyone's expectations. The market's first reaction was "it's over, the Fed will raise interest rates again at the end of the month." The US dollar and US Treasury yields surged in response, dragging gold down harshly. Gold prices fell more than 1.5% last night, even failing to hold the 4100 USD level.
But why did gold suddenly rebound from around 4080 USD to above 4140 USD early this morning?
This morning, the Korean stock market directly hit circuit breakers, and the Japanese stock market plunged over 2000 points. Asian institutional funds fled from chip stocks and tech stocks, and the money that came out had to find a safe place to stay. Naturally, gold prices, which had just fallen into a pit last night, became the first choice.
The panic over rate hikes has already been vented. After gold broke below 4100 USD, long-term allocation funds and central bank buying considered the price appropriate and directly entered the market to support the price.
Prices are still rising, but high interest rates are hammering tech stocks and the real economy mercilessly. In this "high prices, poor economy" stagflation environment, stocks and industrial goods both get hit, and only gold is the best bulletproof vest.$SOXL has dropped to 105, but I believe the semiconductor downturn is far from over!!!
SOXL fell all the way from 158.91 to around 105, a significant drop, but I still remain bearish through Friday.
What truly solidifies my bearish stance is not how much the price has fallen, but that the positive catalysts simply can't hold!
ASML has already signaled strong AI equipment demand, which should theoretically bring buying to semiconductors, yet the entire sector continues to be sold off. This shows the market is simply unwilling to pay the previous valuations for AI's high growth anymore. After CPI exceeded expectations, this pressure has become even more evident.
Even if TSMC delivers strong earnings next, I don't think it will reverse the situation. The market already expects it to be strong; merely proving AI orders are sufficient is no longer enough.
Personally, I remain clearly bearish, expecting SOXL to close around 97–103 on Friday, focusing on whether there is real support near 100 after breaking 105.
Even if it rebounds to 114–118 on Thursday on TSMC news, as long as NVDA, AMD, AVGO, and equipment stocks don't have sustained buying, I still consider that a rebound, not a reversal.
Only if TSMC significantly exceeds expectations, PPI eases, major semiconductor weights regain sustained support, and SOXL holds above 120.83 and further recovers 127.57, will I change my bearish view.
Until then, I remain firmly on the short side!My judgment: The bottom of this round may have already passed.
$BTC is like this, and altcoins are the same.
For me, a pullback is no longer something to fear, but a time to seriously consider positioning.
Of course, this is just a personal opinion, not a definitive conclusion.
$BTC 84000 just touched and was pushed back, once the CPI came out, it directly dropped below 82000.
September core CPI month-on-month was 0.3%, expected 0.2%; overall year-on-year 3.7%, also higher than expected. Just this 0.1 difference pushed the probability of an interest rate hike at the end of October from about 20% to over 40%. Interest rates will continue to rise, and BTC, which yields no interest, is the first to get hit. Around the US stock market close, it hovered near 81800, ETH looked worse, around 2430, down just over 3%.
Frankly, this wave is not caused by problems within the crypto circle itself, but being pressed down by macro factors. On October 7 and 8, spot ETFs saw outflows of over 700 million USD in two days, and only 170 million returned on the 13th; institutions have not yet recovered from this.
I think 80,000 is the key point this round. The spike on October 8 reached near 80300 but was pulled back; most long stop losses are likely piled below. If it holds, it will probably continue to oscillate between 80,000 and 87,000; if it breaks down with volume, the 75,000 area is not impossible. Resistance is between 83,000 and 87,000, several attempts at the start of the month failed to break through.
Next, watch two things: daily ETF flows and the interest rate meeting on October 27-28. If officials come out hawkish before the meeting, don’t expect a decent rebound.
Be cautious with leverage; the scene of over 1.1 billion USD liquidated in one day last week was just a few days ago. $BTC #USSeptemberCPIYearOnYearRisesTo3.7%,CoreInflationExceedsExpectations September CPI released, with core inflation exceeding expectations: core month-on-month +0.3% (expected 0.2%), year-on-year 2.6% (expected 2.5%). Overall year-on-year 3.7%, also higher than the expected 3.6%. However, Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs have finally started to flow back in; on 10/13, Bitcoin inflow was $176 million, Ethereum inflow was $24.8 million, and Ethereum ended a 10-day streak of net outflows. It's still possible to buy at the bottom, which means even if the correction continues, the depth will be limited, and the probability of returning to a bear market is relatively low. During this decline, contract positions increased, indicating that short positions are still being opened, so the correction may not be over. If you want to buy, buying between 75-80k is better, which also falls within the normal correction range of a bull market.
Next, watch two time points: tonight at 20:30 retail sales and PPI (Producer Price Index, consensus month-on-month about +0.5%) will be released; tomorrow morning at 11:30, Federal Reserve Chair Warsh will have a public dialogue at the IMF annual meeting, an important statement before the FOMC. If retail sales and PPI also come in hot, BTC pressure will continue.
Currently, the probability of a rate hike in October is about 54%, and the probability of at least one hike before December exceeds 95%. Crude oil rose 9.1% in a single month, and all costs are rising, so as long as oil does not fall, crypto and US stocks are unlikely to rise directly. $BTC $ETH $SOL