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$PAXG Support Bounce Bullish Momentum Building.
Leverage: 10x Max
Trade Setup: Long
Entry: 3955 – 3980
SL: 3905
TP1: 4025
TP2: 4065
TP3: 4110
Price rejected the 3889 low with strong buyer absorption and is now holding the 3940–3960 zone as support. Momentum has shifted to the bulls with consecutive green 4H candles, giving high probability of continuation toward the next resistance cluster.
Buy and Trade $PAXG #PalantirQ3 revenue grew 96%, but stock price fell instead of rising Palantir's core summary of the Q3 fiscal 2026 report is as follows:
1. Record performance: Q3 revenue was $2.313 billion (up 96% year-over-year), net profit was $1.128 billion (up 137% year-over-year), both exceeding expectations.
2. Historic milestone: U.S. commercial business revenue ($984 million) surpassed U.S. government business ($953 million) for the first time, becoming the primary growth driver.
3. Guidance significantly raised: Full-year revenue guidance raised to $8.53 billion, Q4 revenue guidance (about $2.65 billion) far exceeding market expectations.
4. Stock price "dies in the light": Despite the strong performance, the after-hours stock price dropped nearly 3%.
5. Core reasons for the decline:
- Overvaluation: With a price-to-earnings ratio exceeding 140 times, the market demands "stunning" results rather than just "excellent"; the beat has already been priced in.
- Leading indicators slowing: Total contract value (TCV) declined quarter-over-quarter, and the pace of acquiring long-term orders slowed, raising concerns about the sustainability of growth. I've never understood one thing: when coins in institutional wallets move from one address to another, why does the whole network immediately start shouting about a crash?
Today, BlackRock transferred out 7,244 $BTC and 63,595 $ETH, worth over 500 million and over 100 million dollars respectively, totaling 700 million. The comment section is full of "It's over." But these 700 million worth of coins just changed addresses; not a single coin has entered an exchange.
The real selling only counts when it reaches the exchange; before that, it's just moving house. To put it bluntly, when we transfer money ourselves, no one thinks we're going bankrupt.I browse crypto prediction markets, and now I usually first check if there's someone to take over when I want to exit. It's quite different from the usual buying and selling of Bitcoin; besides judging whether an event will happen, I also have to consider whether to wait until settlement. Some markets have odds that look quite certain, but the bid-ask spread is very wide, so I don't dare to treat that probability as market consensus. Even if I'm right, I might not be able to exit early at the price shown on the screen; I have to stick with it until the result, and hardly anyone pays attention to the orders placed.Last night I came across a set of numbers: BlackRock transferred out 7,244 $BTC and 63,595 $ETH within one day. Based on that day's market price, that's $558.3 million and $144.2 million respectively, totaling over $700 million for the two transactions combined. The same institution, the same time window, two transactions in the same direction.
Breaking it down is even more interesting. The BTC transaction is over half a billion, the ETH one over a hundred million, both in the hundred-million range. This shows it’s not just casually moving a small amount, but two major assets moving together.
However, the term "outflow" is easily misread as a sell-off. On-chain, what we see is just address transfers. Custodial wallets moving to another address could be product redemption settlements, a change of custodian, or just internal consolidation. Real selling pressure only counts when coins enter exchange hot wallets.
One notable point is the synchronicity. $BTC and $ETH moved simultaneously, both over a hundred million. Individual large clients rarely rebalance this neatly; this scale looks more like product-level operations rather than a spontaneous decision.
My judgment: In the short term, don’t interpret this as a dump signal, nor dismiss it as noise. It indicates that holders of this scale can relocate positions massively within a day, and market depth isn’t as stable as imagined.
A point worth pondering: If custodial coins can quietly move over $700 million like this, how much reference value do those whale holding rankings we usually watch really have? In the next 48 hours, watch the next hops of these two addresses.The recent rally in the US stock market is just handing the bears a gift, $BTC can't get above 77670 to 78254, it's just a paper tiger, $ETH at 2294 with RSI already at 73, why chase it? $ZEC at 1199 with negative fees clearly shows no one wants to catch the falling knife.
About this US stock rally, I have one thing to say: it's a gift to the bears. BTC current price 77665, only up 0.01% in 24 hours, hasn't even touched the daily high of 78254, is this a breakout? It's a fake revival. RSI is only 65, not high, but the price is stuck just below the Bollinger upper band at 77484, MA7 and MA25 are both hovering around 77000, bulls have no strength to push higher. If it can't get above 77670 to 78254, it's just a paper tiger, don't be fooled by this small bullish candle to chase longs.
ETH is even more ridiculous, current price 2294, RSI directly hits 73.1, it’s stomping on the Bollinger upper band at 2283, overbought, 24h high only 2304, chasing longs now is just handing the chips to the main players. The fee rate is still positive at 0.01%, bulls are extremely crowded, any slight disturbance will trigger a chain of liquidations. ZEC at 1199 with negative fees, obviously no one wants to catch the fall, bears are pressing down hard, don’t bottom fish, if you do, you’re catching a flying knife.
My stance is clear: BTC rebound in the 77700-78254 range is a shorting opportunity, if it can’t hold above 78254, don’t talk about bulls; I won’t chase ETH longs when it’s overbought, wait for a pullback to 2260-2270 to see if there’s a chance to buy the dip. At this position, chasing longs is for suckers, chasing shorts is smart.#Anthropic's revenue surged 1127%, can it support a high IPO valuation?
Anthropic's IPO cut down to 1.5 trillion: Is the market out of money?
Last week's tech stock sell-off directly changed the script for Anthropic's IPO pricing. Institutional investors have been saying these days that the valuation at listing by the end of the month shouldn't aim for 2 trillion, 1.5 to 1.6 trillion is about right. It sounds like a price cut, but it's actually a reflex after thoroughly scrutinizing the prospectus.
Q3 revenue was 16.956 billion, a quarter-on-quarter increase of only 47%, while Q2 quarter-on-quarter was 144%. ARR rose from 65 billion to 67 billion and then basically leveled off.
On the other hand, computing power costs soared 77% quarter-on-quarter to 9.9 billion, of which 5 billion was short-term computing power bought at a temporary high price, directly turning operating profit from Q2's +974 million to Q3's -567 million. The total computing power commitment is 895.4 billion, with about 69.8 billion to be paid in the next 12 months.
Is it a change in risk appetite or a slowdown in growth?
Both. Risk appetite is the hand pulling the trigger, growth slowdown is the bullet. The Nasdaq fell 5.3% in October, and the patience of funds for "burning money to buy growth" is visibly shrinking.
But fundamentally, this Q3 ledger makes the "retreat price" of 1.5 trillion not look cheap — it still corresponds to a price-to-sales ratio over 40 times the past four quarters' revenue, a multiple that very few IPOs in history can sustain.
My view is simple: you can consider the new listing, but don't take the "first-day jump" as a fundamental turnaround#Triển vọng báo cáo tài chính Palantir: Tăng trưởng cao có thể hỗ trợ định giá cao không
The future development of Palantir centers on the speed of switching its growth engine and whether it can outpace valuation contraction.
On the growth side, the engine is shifting from government to commercial. In Q2 2026, U.S. commercial revenue grew 149% year-over-year; at this growth rate, Q3 commercial revenue will surpass government revenue for the first time. CICC raised its 2026/2027 revenue forecasts to $8.22 billion/$11.77 billion; Citigroup expects 53% revenue growth in 2027 and 67% growth in the commercial segment, both above Wall Street consensus. The U.S. Army's Maven contract increased by $618 million, and NATO's sole-source procurement was secured, indicating the government base remains stable.
However, valuation remains the biggest constraint. The current stock price corresponds to about 61 times 2026 revenue and 40 times 2027 revenue. RBC bluntly states "leaves no room for disappointment." CICC's target price implies only about 3% upside, maintaining a "neutral" rating.
In the next 1–2 years, Palantir's revenue is very likely to continue high growth, but the stock price is more likely to "buy time to gain space" rather than further expand valuation.Affected by the U.S. midterm elections, the crypto market is experiencing severe volatility due to the dual impact of macro-political uncertainty and net capital outflows.
The deep impact of the midterm elections on the market mainly manifests in three dimensions:
1. Macro and market dynamics: expectation digestion and sentiment realization
1. Historical patterns and risk release: On the eve of the election, driven by risk aversion sentiment, the market often experiences a defensive pullback of 5%–10%. Long leverage liquidations are part of a reshuffle process under extreme uncertainty.
2. Prediction markets and the boot dropping: Prediction markets have priced in the political landscape with high probability. After political uncertainties are resolved, short-term risk aversion sentiment release is conducive to phased market recovery.
3. Cycle and macro mainline resonance: Midterm elections usually occur in the mid-to-late stages of the Bitcoin halving cycle. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate path, global liquidity, and U.S. stock risk appetite have a more decisive effect on medium- to long-term trends than a single political election.
2. Capital and technical aspects: capital redemption and key defensive lines
1. ETF capital flows: Large single-day net outflows from spot ETFs reflect institutional cautiousness before the election. The key is whether ETF capital can resume net inflows after the voting day.
2. $BTC key structural support: The $70,000–$71,000 range is the mental defensive line maintaining the overall bull market structure; the $75,000–$76,400 range is the key support of moving averages and lower bounds. Losing this may trigger a secondary bottom test.
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ Chart spread out, count the lights yourself
$BTC support at 76,260, which is the bottom of the lower shadow on 10/30 and also the floor of the recent box; if it really breaks, look down for a deep retracement to 74,735, that's the second boot. Overhead resistance at 81,944, the top of the long upper shadow on 10/29, it tries to break through but gets pushed back each time. The chart also shows two rebound paths: T1 79,383, T2 81,125 — note, these are escape routes drawn for the bulls, not your buy points.
The moving averages are the most interesting part today. MA3 at 77,417, MA5 at 77,473, both above the current price of 76,822, short-term moving averages pressing down on the price, this is called a bearish alignment just starting and not yet finished. So as long as the rebound touches the 77,400-77,600 range, that is the battleground between the moving averages and the previous day's close, and also the most comfortable platform for short positions.
There is also the descending pressure line, connecting 81,944 on 10/29 to 78,831 on 11/01, today pressing down near 78,388. The price has been hovering below it for four days; on 11/01 it surged to 78,831 once but was pushed back, indicating someone is really defending this line. The stop loss for short positions is set at 78,250, just inside this line — if hit, it means the opponent held the line, and you admit defeat and exit.#美国10月非农前瞻：就业增长或牵动12月加息预期
Nonfarm payrolls are coming this Friday. The market expects an increase of 60,000 to 65,000 jobs, a clear rebound from September's 29,000, with the unemployment rate steady at 4.2%. If the data falls within this consensus range of 60,000 to 65,000, employment is neither strong nor collapsing, which is the most comfortable scenario for the Federal Reserve—neither bad enough to abandon rate hikes nor good enough to accelerate them. The probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in December remains between 75% and 85%, and this figure is likely to hold. What would really loosen rate hike expectations is data significantly below expectations, such as dropping below 30,000; conversely, if it surges above 100,000, rate hike expectations will be further cemented. So nonfarm payrolls are not the referee for "whether to hike or not," but the weight tipping "which way expectations lean."
On the crypto side, the market will likely continue to consolidate before the data release. BTC is around 77,000 to 78,000, with 76,000 as a short-term key support; breaking below that points to 75,000. The resistance zone is between 78,000 and 80,000, and only reclaiming 80,000 would indicate structural improvement. ETH is near 2,280 to 2,300, with 2,250 as the short-term lifeline. Resistance layers from 2,320 to 2,350 are pressing down; a rebound without volume is a correction, not a reversal. SOL is in the 92 to 94 range, with 90 to 95 as a critical area to watch. If it doesn't hold above 96.9, the bearish structure remains unchanged.
Do you think this nonfarm payrolls report will fall within the consensus range or surprise the market? Let's discuss in the comments $BTC $ETH $ZEC $SNDK 【SNDK Deep V Reversal, Be Cautious When Chasing Long!】
Pre-market bulls are strong, pulling from 1069 all the way up to 1135, directly forming a V-shaped reversal to reclaim lost ground.
Looking at the 15-minute chart, the price has hit the upper Bollinger Band (1137), and the KDJ indicator has entered a severe overbought zone (K=81). Although the SAR indicator is turning upward, showing strong support, the short-term deviation rate is large, indicating a need for a pullback and correction.
Strategy: Do not chase the price at current levels; be cautious of a spike followed by a drop. The first resistance is at 1144, with support at 1128 and 1112 (middle band). Wait for volume to shrink and a stable pullback before considering entry, with a stop loss at 1104.
Did you catch the bottom of this deep V? 👇 #SNDK #USStocks🔥#美国10月非农前瞻：就业增长或牵动12月加息预期
Brothers, the nonfarm payrolls are coming soon, and this data will directly affect the expectations for a rate hike in December 👀.
Currently, the market pricing for a 25 basis point rate hike in December is between 72% and 85%, with expectations quite high. The October nonfarm payrolls are expected to add about 65,000 jobs, compared to the previous 29,000, and the unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.2%. In short, as long as the data doesn't disappoint, or even slightly exceeds expectations, the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields will be supported, which will suppress risk assets like BTC.
Right now, BTC is hovering around 77,000 to 78,000, with 76,000 to 77,000 as the core bottom support, and whether 78,600 can hold is the short-term dividing line. At this kind of nonfarm payrolls node, the biggest fear is a double-sided spike around the data release, cutting both longs and shorts. If you have positions, don't just focus on betting on the direction based on the data; leave enough room for error 💡$BTC 🔷 CryptoX-ray #28: $EDGE −91% from peak, volume 6%
Cap ~$20.5M, FDV ~$75M, circulating 27.4% of supply.
Red flag: team (27.21%) and investors (14.64%) have 12-month cliff and 24-month linear vesting.
Aggregators show buyback and income to holders, but this does not grant payout rights.
Verdict: discounts exist, demand not proven. Waiting for confirmed buybacks. Ready for −30%.
Will discounts hold the price or will vesting crush it? 👇After this Binance hacker incident, there's a number I only noticed today.
Its user protection fund SAFU,
has already spent half of its BTC.
In February this year, the fund had about 15,000 BTC.
Now only about 7,500 remain.
At BTC's current price of around $77,000,
the remaining BTC is worth about $580 million.
In other words:
To handle this $6.3 billion hacker incident, Binance has really started tapping into its “safe.”
What's even more interesting is,
Binance had previously set a rule:
If the SAFU fund's value falls below $800 million due to BTC price drops, it must be replenished.
Now the fund is below $800 million.
But this time it's not because BTC dropped in value,
it's because the money was actually spent.
So next, I'm quite curious about one question:
When exactly will Binance replenish this fund back to around $1 billion?
That says more than just shouting “It's back to normal.”
#BTC #Binance #SAFU #Bitcoin #CryptoCommunity Brothers, I don't know if you were scared off, but I certainly wasn't.
I'm still holding tightly onto this wave of long positions on the big coin.
Last night's sharp drop, $BTC fell straight from 68000 to around 65000, that plunge was extremely fierce. I guess many long traders got liquidated by that big bearish candle and ran away.
But I posted at the time saying this was definitely a violent shakeout by Wall Street's main players!
Looking back at the 1-hour candlestick, a super deep V reversal pulled back directly to 66800, with MA20 and MA60 firmly supporting the bottom, the daily bullish trend is completely intact!
And looking at the data, ETF funds are still continuously flowing in, macro expectations for rate cuts remain, and the big trend is still upward.
On the news front, Bitcoin's ecosystem and Layer 2 underlying technologies are still being continuously developed.
The fundamentals haven't broken, the technical shakeout is over, what do we have to fear?
My long position entered at 64800, held from start to finish, is now steadily earning +30% profit (with leverage).
Next strategy: hold the longs tightly, get ready to welcome new highs!
Set the defensive bottom line to 65500, lock in profits.
The first target above is a breakthrough at 67500; if it holds, we directly look at the 70000 milestone!
The horn of the bulls' counterattack has already sounded, hold your chips well, let's keep flying!
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ $ETH $SOL What's going on with the market these days?
Let's set the background first. The Hang Seng Tech Index rose 2.25%, with lithium battery and AI concepts both jumping. The US stock market isn't so lucky; AI return anxiety flared up again, with the Nasdaq down 1.07% and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropping 3%. Tech stocks have been lined up to get hit since 10/30.
Back to the crypto world. $BTC fell 2.23% in 24 hours, currently priced at 76,822, with a 7-day range of 76,260-81,944, basically giving back the gains from the long upper shadow on 10/29. $ETH was more obedient, down 2.58% at 2,249, with a range of 2,171.52-2,391.16.
We need to break down the sentiment here. $BTC funding rate daily average is +0.0095%, latest +0.010%, meaning longs are still paying shorts daily — this isn't a sign of prosperity, it's like a crowd stuck at the door unable to get out. On the position side, it's more straightforward: open interest is 3.63 billion USD, with a net outflow of 116.6M in the latest day, but a cumulative net inflow of 297.1M over ten days. The price dropped from 81,944 to 76,260, yet positions increased by nearly 300 million, indicating that the added positions are shorts, not buyers stepping in.
Two extra uncertainties: the US midterm elections vote is tomorrow, and Apple, AMD, and Qualcomm are releasing earnings reports this week. With risk events piling up, don't overleverage.I've always had a question: On-chain accounts keep shouting "whale transfers into exchanges" every day. Does transferring in mean they want to sell?
Today is the same, 7,244 BTC and 63,600 ETH moved into Coinbase Prime within an hour, worth 700 million USD, looks scary.
But Coinbase Prime is an institutional custody channel. Money from firms like BlackRock naturally goes through this line; subscriptions, redemptions, and portfolio adjustments all happen inside. Retail investors deposit coins to sell, institutions move funds into custody—who knows.
If they really want to dump, you look at the order book and trades, not just a transfer screenshot.One hour, 700 million USD. BlackRock transferred 7,244 BTC and 63,600 ETH into Coinbase Prime. As soon as the numbers came out, the first reaction in the group was "They're about to sell." Hold on, this situation needs to be analyzed on two levels.
First, look at the structure. 7,244 BTC equals 558 million USD, 63,600 ETH equals 143 million USD, roughly a four-to-one ratio. This position movement is mainly in $BTC, with $ETH just a small portion. If they were really liquidating, concentrating the heaviest chips into one address doesn't make much sense.
Next, consider the channel. Coinbase Prime is not a retail account; it provides custody, settlement, and subscription/redemption services for institutions. BlackRock's products require buying coins when subscriptions come in and sending coins out when redemptions occur. Changes in ETF shares ultimately reflect as inflows and outflows in the custody address. So a single "transfer in" record could mean preparing to sell or just completing a purchase.
What can verify the direction is not the transfer itself, but the subsequent traces: whether spot net inflows continuously increase, whether there are large orders above the market, and whether funding rates turn positive. Right now, there is only one transfer.
This should be read more as "institutional positions are moving," not "a drop is imminent."
What’s worth pondering is: why is the same transfer more often treated as bearish news than bullish? We are sensitive to "inflows to exchanges" but numb to "outflows from exchanges." This bias itself is a cost.Is the $COIN security incident a trust opportunity for Coinbase or an industry-wide contraction risk? Exchange accidents highlight the importance of compliant custody, potentially granting COIN a relative trust premium; however, security concerns may also reduce user trading and holdings. If institutional custody, subscription services, and market share remain stable, business resilience strengthens. The opposing view is that a market downturn suppresses transaction revenue; if assets and trading volume both shrink, the relative advantage is still inevitably affected by the cycle. Tracking custody assets, net inflows, and non-trading income, the security narrative cannot replace verification of the revenue structure. When further confirming, I will separate market expectations, revenue realization, and cash flow quality; at least two of these must align over multiple subsequent reporting periods before adjusting the medium-term judgment. If there is only a one-time message or single-quarter fluctuation, valuation recovery still needs verification. Good evening everyone, let's talk about the market.
It seems quite a few people are very concerned about the midterm elections.
Well, I think there's no need to be overly worried.
This afternoon, I analyzed the market background of $BTC price movements during every midterm election.
For this year's midterm election, sticking rigidly to old methods seems a bit foolish to me.
Be bold in your positioning; what you need to do is focus on the technicals.
We are still watching the 76000 and 75000 levels; as long as they are not broken, fantasizing about the market is useless.
I've already entered half of my long positions in $MSTR and $PURR.
Today, I continue to add to my Purr position.
Why add more? Because the price is still moving within my bullish logic, and when it dips, it gives an opportunity, so I add more.
Pay less attention to the news; with that time, you'd better improve your technical analysis skills.
Alright, the market is still moving as we expected, so there's not much to explain. Whether it starts with 76 or 75, I think it's okay to add positions.
Note, the range is a bit small; we still need to see a price breakout above the trendline to confirm an upward trend.Nearly 100 million "ghost chips" looming: The real culprit behind CORE's continuous decline is not the market, but a collapse of trust
As of November 3, 2026, CORE is priced at about $0.012, with a 24-hour drop of approximately 11.5%, a 7-day drop of about 29%, a circulating market cap of around $12.48 million, and a 24-hour trading volume of about $3.09 million, having retraced over 99% from its historical peak. What truly crushed the price is not the market, but nearly 100 million ghost chips. At the end of October, the Bitcoin dual staking protocol b14g was attacked, affecting about 97 million CORE. On November 3, the Core network executed a hard fork, recovering about 68.15 million tokens, approximately 70.2% of the affected amount. However, the recovered tokens have not yet been distributed to affected users, exchange-frozen funds have not been returned, and there is currently no official compensation process. Earlier in September, the Core network urgently hard forked due to a validator reward vulnerability, with the top five exchanges including Coinbase simultaneously suspending deposits and withdrawals. The official approach is to upgrade forward without rolling back the ledger; key data such as the scale of over-issuance and whether tokens have entered the secondary market have not been fully disclosed to date. The two incidents combined directly undermine the BTCFi narrative. The premise of Bitcoin on-chain finance is security and trustworthiness, but with CORE repeatedly experiencing reward vulnerabilities, protocol attacks, hard fork recoveries, and unclear distributions, the market naturally questions: can on-chain assets truly be protected? More troubling is the total supply of 2.1 billion tokens, a circulation rate of about 48%, and mining rewards that decay annually and will be released over 81 years, meaning supply pressure will persist long-term. Today I'm putting my words out there: I've always believed in shorting. Even with the mid-move rebound, I never considered taking profits to buy the dip!
Brothers, look at the current $BTC order book, the big coin has softened again, the current price directly dropped to 77331! This rebound from the bottom is all bark and no bite, it can't even touch the ironclad 78000 level, purely a pump-and-dump trap by the dog whales.
Look at the data, long-short ratio is 65% to 35%, on the order book above from 77332.6 to 77331.1, sell orders are still heavily stacked, with 8.05 units directly placed at 77331.1. The bulls are stubbornly holding on to buy the dip, but above is dense selling pressure, the main funds have no intention to come in and save it. Against the absolute bearish trend, these 65% retail bulls are our best fuel.
Our short position laid out at the high of 78054 is now steadily holding a 2.80% floating profit, with 0.65U already taken. The worst thing in trading is being a fence-sitter; since we've identified the big trend is down, all the deep V reversals and quick bull rebounds are just noise to ignore.
Don't blindly buy the dip, catching longs now is like catching flying knives. Hold the shorts tight, let the profits keep flying, we'll just wait for this bull run to completely collapse and see how deep it can fall!
$ETH $ZEC #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ But here's the real question: Even if the prediction comes true, can you actually make money from the journey? Trading is never just about predicting a future price. It's about having the courage to make a calculated prediction, building a strategy, and executing it with discipline. The market rewards you when you're right. When you're wrong, your job is to control the damage, protect your capital, and stay in the game. Bold predictions are easy. Managing risk while waiting for them to happen is如果把这轮中期选举只当成新闻看，可能会错过一次风险偏好的重新定价。你注意到没有，市场已经在提前交易"政策组合"了？ 这两天翻数据时有点小感慨：加密行业这次不是站在场外看戏。三个超级PAC往国会选举里砸了约1.7亿美元，这个数字本身比"谁赢谁输"更值得盯，因为它说明行业在用真金白银买立法环境的确定性。众议院435席全部改选，参议院约三分之一换届，权力结构一旦变化，财政、税收、数字资产监管的推进节奏都会跟着变，而节奏才是价格最敏感的变量。 我更在意的是传导路径，不是结果本身。选举→国会控制权→立法预期→风险偏好。这条链条里，市场往往先交易"预期差"，而不是等政策落地。如果结果指向分裂政府，短期可能被解读为政策不确定性上升，波动率抬升，BTC和ETH先承压，山寨更明显，因为它们的估值更依赖叙事和边际资金；但如果分裂意味着激进监管难推进，中期反而可能给加密留出更温和的生存空间，资金会从防守型大盘慢慢试探高beta板块。反过来，若一边倒控制两院，政策推进更顺，但监管方向也可能更明确、更快落地，这种"确定性"对风险资产未必全是好事。 容易被忽略的一点：1.7亿美元的投入已经把"利好立法"部分提前计Stablecoin Market Cap Plummets: On-Exchange Ammo is Decreasing
CryptoQuant data: The total market cap of stablecoins has shrunk continuously from the May peak of about 278 billion, recently accelerating its decline, falling below 262 billion, hitting a new phase low.
Many people only focus on the K-line and ignore this line.
Stablecoin market cap = inventory of on-exchange purchasing power. Its decline means real money is leaving — not rotating from BTC to altcoins, but converting back to fiat and withdrawing from this market.
Looking at BTC again: it has fallen from 85K in October to around 77K. Price drops and ammo decrease simultaneously, a double confirmation of weakness, not a shakeout.
Can the next rebound be trusted? Don’t look at sentiment, just focus on one number:
Total stablecoin market cap stops falling and starts to rise.
If the ammo doesn’t return, any rebound is just an empty shot. Even if the price is still bottoming, ammo returning means real money is re-entering.
Hold your hands, wait for the ammo reserve to be replenished first.
#BTC #Stablecoin Macro Background: This Week is a "Minefield of Events"
The midterm elections on November 3rd are the first variable. The election results directly affect the prospects for advancing crypto regulatory legislation (especially the CLARITY Act), and changes in the congressional landscape will reprice regulatory uncertainty.
The November 6th non-farm payrolls report is the real "switch" this week. Several Federal Reserve officials (including Logan) have clearly stated that at least two more 25bp hikes are expected this year, and the market pricing for a December rate hike remains above 70%. Employment data here presents an asymmetry of "pain either way": strong employment → high rates suppress valuations, weak employment → recession hits risk assets. Before the non-farm payrolls release, the 76K–78K range of oscillation is very likely to continue.
The Fear and Greed Index has fallen from a high level back into the fear zone, and emotional recovery also requires time.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #加密行业协同守护资产安全 $BTC $ETH
BlackRock ETF large transfer of coins into the exchange, withdrawing coins to the exchange at this time, before the US stock market opens?
Could it be that institutions have foreseen a downward trend?
The BlackRock ETF-related address transferred 7,244 BTC and 63,600 ETH to Coinbase Prime in a short period, with a total value of up to $702.25 million
Such a large-scale asset transfer into the exchange, the next move is hard to predict
Pay attention to the possibility of subsequent fund cash-outs, especially before the US stock market opens
For those who haven't entered long positions, I suggest waiting a bit longer; those holding profits can cash out some first and keep some to continue participating in market fluctuations. Those trapped should pay attention to risk control and stop-loss points
#加密行业协同守护资产安全 When I look at the prediction market for Bitcoin's price fluctuations, I always wonder: when big money comes in, is it changing the odds or the actual outcome? When there are few orders, a large order can skew the odds, but that doesn't mean the event is actually very likely to happen. Unlike directly buying the coin, here there are cutoff times and settlement conditions. Money can push the odds, but it doesn't necessarily move Bitcoin's price. But what if the prediction happens to be the coin price at a certain point in time, and a whale goes to influence the spot market? Can that result still be considered a pure guess?$BTC 各位韭菜们，今天美国中期选举正式投票，摩根大通已经把四种可能结局都算明白了，我给大伙说白话。 第一种，民主党直接拿下参众两院，概率66%，是最可能出现的情况。但这个结局反而不一定涨，标普最多涨0.5%，甚至可能小跌0.25%。民主党全面掌权后，AI行业监管大概率会收紧，数据中心扩张也可能被卡住，科技股短期容易承压。不过也别自己吓自己，真要出台法案，也未必能推翻总统否决，回调反而可能是进场机会。另外财政开支会收紧，美债长端收益率往下走，债券相对走强。还有一点，跟特朗普有资金往来的企业高管，后面可能会面临不少国会调查。 第二种，两党分家，民主党拿众议院，共和党守参议院，概率26%。这种局面基本就是政策僵局，谁也没法随便出大招，市场反而比较稳，标普能涨0.5%到1%。美债收益率同样会往下走，但企业被调查的风险还在。 第三种，共和党守住两院，概率只有7%，但这是对美股最友好的情况。一旦出现，标普大概率拉涨1%到1.25%，科技股也能松口气，因为新增监管压力不大。但坏处是财政支出可能继续放大，美债收益率走高，中东局势也容易再起波澜。 第四种，反向分家，共和党占众议院、民主党占参议院，概#Pratinjau Laporan Keuangan Palantir: Apakah Pertumbuhan Tinggi Bisa Mendukung Penilaian Tinggi apakah ini akan menjadi sejarahTether's CEO said they hold about 150,000 BTC, worth roughly $11.5 billion at current prices. Interestingly, the company's Q3 reserve report only accounts for about 100,000 BTC; the missing 50,000 BTC were not disclosed where or when they were purchased, so this does not equal "newly bought 50,000 BTC".
My view: don't rush to see this as bullish news. When the market is trending down, statements like "we are very rich" are most easily used as emotional comfort. What’s more worth noting is that the excess reserves in the report rose from $4.1 billion to $7.95 billion; this buffer is more concrete than just saying "honest work."
A note for ordinary people: verbal figures from stablecoin issuers and numbers in audit reports should be viewed separately.
#Bitcoin #Stablecoin#苹果Q4营收超预期，下季度毛利率指引承压 Apple Q4 revenue exceeded expectations, with hardware sales holding steady and the new CEO's first revenue report passing muster. However, the market is focused on risks, as next quarter's gross margin guidance is under pressure, mainly due to rising prices of memory chips, combined with increased Siri AI cloud computing costs, and the near end of low-cost component inventory consumption. Revenue looks good, but profitability is under pressure. Going forward, the key focus will be on product price increases, supply chain cost control capabilities, and the resilience of the services business, which are crucial for valuation.The U.S. midterm elections officially kick off today. According to the latest data from Kalshi, the Democratic Party has a 76% chance of taking the Senate and an even higher 94% chance of winning the House of Representatives. If this prediction comes true, it would mean a fundamental reversal of the political landscape in Washington, with the crypto industry standing right in the eye of the storm. First, the legislative pathway will be completely frozen. Over the past two years, the Republican-led Congress passed the GENIUS Act and pushed the CLARITY Act through the House, but the latter has stalled in the Senate due to controversies over stablecoin rewards and ethical provisions. If the Democrats regain the Senate, Elizabeth Warren will become chair of the Banking Committee, and her sharpest weapon will be subpoena power. Wintermute's policy director expects she will focus on scrutinizing the OCC's approvals of new bank charters for Ripple, Coinbase, and World Financial, which is supported by the Trump family. More critically, in the Ohio race, Fairshake PAC has invested $30 million to support pro-crypto Republican Hustad. If former Banking Committee chair Sherrod Brown wins and moves to chair the Agriculture Committee, related crypto legislation could be directly shelved. Second, the market has already voted with its feet in advance. Bitcoin fell below the $77,000 mark today, hitting a 24-hour low of $76,335, and Ethereum dropped to $2,247. This is not panic but a typical wait-and-see volume contraction. HTX #苹果Q4营收超预期，下季度毛利率指引承压
Apple's Q4 revenue exceeded expectations, with next quarter's gross margin guidance under pressure
Apple's fourth fiscal quarter revenue reached $114.48 billion, EPS $2.10, both surpassing market expectations. iPhone and Mac revenues outperformed consensus, service revenue was basically in line with expectations; Greater China revenue was $17.54 billion, slightly below market expectations. After-hours stock price initially rose then fell, with core pressure coming from holiday season profit guidance.
The company provided guidance for next quarter revenue growth of 7%-10% year-over-year, but gross margin is expected to be only 45%-46%, down about 2 percentage points quarter-over-quarter, significantly below market expectations, marking the main negative in this earnings report. Two main drags: first, rising prices of storage chips, with low-cost inventory about to be depleted, leading to increased procurement costs; second, full rollout of Siri AI, with cloud computing power investments continuously eroding profits.
Overall, Apple's hardware consumer base remains solid, with upgrade demand and ecosystem foundation supporting long-term value; however, rising supply chain costs and profit pressure during the AI investment phase will be the core challenges for the upcoming peak season.
$AAPL #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？
Voting day begins, BTC drops nearly 2% intraday, market sentiment is cautious, the election is not only a political game but also directly affects the direction of crypto regulation.
The crypto industry has cumulatively invested over $200 million in political donations, playing a key role in pushing regulatory bills like CLARITY. The current market widely expects the Democratic Party to likely take the House of Representatives, while the Senate outcome remains uncertain. If a divided Congress forms, fiscal expansion will be limited, amplifying risk asset expectation gaps.
Historical patterns show that BTC fell 48%, 37%, and 16% respectively before the last three midterm elections, with an average 12-month post-election increase of 53.7%; and the bottoming point gradually approaches the election day (71 days after → 39 days after → 13 days after). However, this time the interest rate hike cycle pressure is superimposed, so historical patterns are only for reference and should not be directly used as trading signals.
Asset impact differentiation: BTC is primarily anchored to fiat credit and macro liquidity, with midterm logic unchanged; ETH is more sensitive to regulatory policies and ETF capital, showing greater volatility elasticity.
Going forward, focus on tracking Federal Reserve policies, ETF capital flows, global liquidity, and post-election regulatory developments. It is recommended to watch more and trade less before implementation, prioritizing position control.
$BTC $ETH Binance had 200,000 Ethereum stolen.
On the same day, the exchange actually had 39,000 more Ethereum.
Because withdrawals were suspended.
Coins could come in, but couldn't go out.
Withdrawals only resumed two days later.
On November 1st and 2nd, 313,000 were withdrawn.
From October 28th to November 2nd,
the exchange's Ethereum decreased by 5.4%, nearly 300,000 coins.
Seeing this number, the first reaction is always: fewer coins, price will rise.
But the price didn't cooperate.
It was still 2800 in October, now 2264.
There are only two possibilities when coins decrease.
Those optimistic are withdrawing coins back to their own wallets.
Those fearful don't want to keep coins on the exchange anymore.
One is bullish, the other is hedging; the data looks exactly the same.
To separate them, just look at one thing:
When coins leave, does the price rise?
This time, the price is falling.
So these 300,000 coins weren't stolen, someone is hiding.
Coins left, but no money came in.
This is not a price surge, it's a relocation.
Is your ETH in the exchange or in your own wallet?
$ETHThe valuation anchor of the “true public chain” has shattered: dissecting CORE’s “structural gradual decline,” why are all rebounds traps?
As of November 3, 2026, CORE is priced at about $0.012, down approximately 11.5% in 24 hours, down about 29% over 7 days, with a circulating market cap of about $12.48 million, and a 24-hour trading volume of about $3.09 million, having retraced over 99% from its historical peak. It is not simply dragged down by the overall market; rather, its valuation anchors are breaking apart. Valuation anchor one: The BTCFi narrative was pierced by security incidents. After the September validator over-issuance bug, five major exchanges including Coinbase simultaneously suspended deposits and withdrawals; at the end of October, the b14g protocol was attacked, affecting 97 million CORE tokens. On November 3, a network hard fork recovered about 68.15 million tokens, but these have not yet been allocated to affected users, and the exchanges’ frozen funds have not been returned. The core premise of BTCFi is “Bitcoin assets securely on-chain,” and these two vulnerabilities directly undermined this premise. Valuation anchor two: Buyback and burn cannot outpace unlocking. The total supply is 2.1 billion tokens, with a circulation rate of about 48%, and mining rewards are released with annual decay over 81 years. Although the 2026 roadmap plans to use BTCFi’s real revenue for buyback and burn, the current protocol revenue scale is too small to offset long-term selling pressure. Valuation anchor three: Liquidity exhaustion.
The trading volume is only about $3.09 million; a large sell order can trigger a liquidation cascade, and rebounds lack supporting buy orders. Valuation anchor four: Governance handover brings uncertainty, as control is transferring from the core team to the community, and the decision-making direction remains unclear ETFs are withdrawing, but whales are accumulating.
In the past 6 trading days, Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen a cumulative net outflow of about $859 million. Just BlackRock's IBIT has had outflows for 10 consecutive days totaling $2.24 billion, corresponding to nearly 36,000 BTC redeemed. However, during the same period, on-chain large holders excluding exchanges and mining pools have increased their holdings to about 3.03 million BTC, with the 30-day accumulation rate hitting the fastest since February 2026. The panic index dropped from 37 to 26 in one day, and long positions liquidated $340 million — yet whale addresses continue to accumulate amid the panic.
Why is this worth attention? ETF outflows reflect passive allocation funds reducing positions ahead of macro events, while on-chain accumulation represents mid-to-long-term behavior of self-custodied funds. The opposite directions indicate that BTC's marginal pricing power may be shifting from "paper exposure that can be quickly redeemed" to "spot chips that are not easily moved."
Which observation is currently more supported? The data favors chip rotation rather than pure capital flight. But whales are not unified internally; some are accumulating, while others are swapping BTC for ETH, and combined data masks this strategic split.
Next, focus on one thing: can the whales' 3.03 million BTC absorb the ETF redemption slope? If they can, the structure will change; if not, panic will continue to be priced in. What do you think about this wave of rotation? Let's discuss in the comments. $BTC $ETH 【On-Chain Trading Update｜HYPE】
Monitored address 0x940a opened a long position:
▪ Execution price: $84.85
▪ Transaction amount this time: $637,719.02
▪ Leverage: 10x
Do you think opening a long at this position is early or not?
Note: This address has earned over $64,000 in profit in the past 30 days, with a return rate of +68.48% $MU
Chasing single stock tokens based on 'pre-market gains,' I get it wrong seven out of ten times. Today Micron rose over 4% pre-market, but the token still shows -3.6% over 24 hours.
The 1-hour candle at 8 PM really pulled up. Opened at 850.96, closed at 867.57, volume 11,900 contracts; the previous three hours only had five to six thousand contracts each. Daily low was 831, now at 867.
The fee settlement is stuck at 0. Holding over 43,000 contracts, which translates to 38 million USD.
The pre-market sentiment did come through, but not a penny of leveraged money entered. This product moves with the underlying stock but is much thinner; the underlying stock keeps moving after close, but the moves are just directionless spreads.
I’ve been watching a zero-fee-rate contract for half a day; this is a task I chose myself.
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ $CORE is probably hard to recover, with a large amount of players' funds trapped, whereabouts unknown, no support or pump, slow or even halted development progress, many node operators withdrawing at a loss, and a large amount of coins concentrated in the hands of a few.
Internal management is not open or transparent, and the coin price is trending downward day by day.$BTC
Breaking news says Bitcoin has broken the "midterm election must fall" pattern this year. I checked the moving averages; 77,357 is still 5.6% above the 200-day moving average of 73,223.
This cushion is worth a look. In previous election cycles, the price would drop three to five points a week before the election to break through that line, but this time it didn't.
There are also intraday details. At 20:00, the 1-hour candle rose from 77,074 to 77,395 with a volume of 385,000 contracts, while the previous few hours hovered around 200,000. After 21:00, volume shrank to 40,000 but the price didn't drop. The daily low was 76,360, now at 77,350, a rebound of 1,000 points. Open interest is 2.611 billion, and the fee rate is still at +0.01%.
I don't think this is a real strength shift. A true strength shift would show the fee rate rising and open interest increasing. Now the price has returned, but leverage hasn't.
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ Ajian writes three scenarios for Friday's nonfarm payrolls:
Scenario 1: The data is clearly stronger than expected, for example, surging above 100,000, with wages also heating up. The market won't interpret this as good employment but rather that the Fed has more reason to keep interest rates high or even raise them further. The dollar strengthens, US Treasury yields push higher, and $BTC along with growth stocks come under pressure. In such cases, the harshest reaction is when good news is fully priced in because the market trades the good news directly.
Scenario 2: The data is clearly weaker than expected, for example, falling below 30,000, with unemployment rising. Then rate hike pricing will quickly retreat, thoughts of rate cuts resurface, and risk assets get a breather. But Ajian reminds friends that this situation has a hidden pitfall: if the weakness is due to collapsing demand rather than a soft landing, then the rebound is a chance to exit, not to chase. The specific way to distinguish this is to watch consumption and initial jobless claims data over the next two weeks, rather than drawing conclusions on nonfarm payroll night.
Scenario 3: The most frustrating kind, where data is close to expectations, neither up nor down. The market gets no new information and can only grind on, with volatility pushed to other events after Friday. The implication for positions is: don't preemptively take heavy directional bets based on a high-probability bland data release.
In summary, the main value of the nonfarm payrolls is whether it can move December rate pricing, which will determine at least three months of position logic. So the order to watch on Friday night should be: first look at changes in interest rate futures pricing, then the dollar, then Bitcoin. Reversing this order makes it very easy to be misled by the first fake move.
That's all, DYOR #US October Nonfarm Preview: Employment Growth May Influence December Rate Hike Expectations $BTC
The U.S. Treasury needs to replenish its cash reserves, and the market worries that funds will be drained away, meaning there will be even less money for Bitcoin by the end of the year. After reading this, I don't really think the long-term logic of the crypto industry is broken; it seems more like a temporary cash crunch. But this "short term" is quite annoying, dragging on until the end of the year, making the market still tough. What I want to focus on now is the subsequent fiscal spending—after the money goes into the account, when will it be spent again?CHZ, STX, CFX have unlimited supply with continuous issuance diluting tokens, facing heavy resistance for long-term price increase.
RVN, DOT, OP have capped total supply, with scarcity value continuously increasing over time.
RVN is a native asset minting, DOT enables multi-chain interoperability, OP is Ethereum Layer 2 low-cost scaling.
CHZ, STX, CFX have an annual inflation rate roughly between 3%–10%.Really picking up｜Top 5 Altcoins by Gains Today (21:00)
$AXIS +13.33% (24h +12.41%) 1h price -0.72%, volume +1.47%, turnover +17.74%, 4h volume +7.78%, volume 1.47M, turnover 13.6M, volume ratio 9.3. Volume surged in the hour but price didn't follow, small volume
$IRYS +13.20% (24h +15.45%) 1h price +4.89%, volume +6.99%, turnover +11.51% all rising together, 4h volume +12.75%, volume 2.45M, turnover 23.66M, volume ratio 9.7. Long-term volume accumulation pushing price, small volume
$PIEVERSE +12.20% (24h +11.28%) 1h slight movement, 4h sideways, volume 5M, turnover 37.68M, volume ratio 7.5. Large volume stable
$BOME +8.70% (24h +8.53%) 1h price +4.82%, volume +10.18%, turnover +23.30% all rising together, 4h volume +12.87%, volume 1.41M, turnover 4.47M, volume ratio 3.2. Hourly rise together, long-term volume accumulation 12.87%, small volume
$H +7.32% (24h +6.55%) 1h price +2.00%, volume +7.90%, turnover +17.96%, 4h volume +13.24%, volume 1.08M, turnover 2.24M, volume ratio 2.1. Hourly rise together, long-term volume accumulation 13%, micro cap#Strategy repurchase scale is three times the amount of coins bought, is the treasury strategy shifting?
Strategy spent more than three times on repurchasing STRC last week compared to buying coins, yet it didn't stop buying, still purchasing over 800 coins.
I checked its 8-K report from Monday, and the source of funds is quite clear. The money from selling MSTR common stock: 40% goes to buying coins, 60% replenishes cash; the $208 million used to repurchase STRC all comes from cash.
At first, I thought it had shifted the money for buying coins to support preferred stock. That doesn't add up; the amount for buying coins hasn't decreased, but the cash line has dropped. A week ago, there was $242 million, but by last Sunday only $133 million remained, and the replenishment didn't cover it. At this week's repurchase pace, the remaining cash won't last a week.
Also, the over $4 billion reserve is specified in the 8-K as reserved for paying dividends and interest, so don't count it as ammunition for repurchases.
Therefore, in next Monday's 8-K, first look at the cash line; it reveals the tightness of funds earlier than how many coins were bought. I guess next week either repurchases will shrink, or more money from selling stock will be used to replenish cash. If repurchases remain around $200 million and coin purchases increase compared to this week, I'll admit I was wrong.Many brothers start to get nervous as soon as the market rebounds, fearing their short positions will be trapped.
But take a close look at the current market: this rebound can't even touch the 2300 level, the highest point only reached 2303 before immediately softening. What's there to panic about?
Look at the 4-hour chart, the facts are right in front of you:
First, the highs are continuously moving lower. From the previous 2579, to 2538, then recently 2318 and 2303.
Each rebound's high is lower than the last, this is a classic descending channel, the overall trend hasn't changed at all.
Second, volume is extremely thin.
This small bullish candle rising from 2236 has pitifully low trading volume underneath, indicating no major funds are stepping in to catch the fall.
A volume-less rebound is a typical technical bull trap.
It's like a patient who just had the tubes removed and can't even stand steadily—do you expect him to run a marathon right away?
The bulls currently have no strength to break through the dense short squeeze zone above 2300.
The next trading logic is very clear:
Don't chase shorts at the bottom; just wait for it to make a false show of strength upwards.
As long as the rebound reaches the 2300 - 2318 resistance zone and can't push higher, that's an excellent point to add to short positions.
Looking downwards, if it breaks below 2236 again, this decline will accelerate.
Trading is about structure and the big trend, not staring at a few red and green bars on the intraday chart and scaring yourself.
$BTC
$ETH
$SOL
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ $ETH just surged very sharply this time. The 15-minute chart has consecutive bullish candles, and the price surged above 2280. Seeing it suddenly pull up such a long bullish candle startled me. The short-term surge was very fast, but the subsequent trading volume has started to decrease.
Although the small-scale moving averages were pulled up, and the price crossed the 15-minute EMA20 and EMA50, the 1-hour chart shows several moving averages trending downward, with EMA100 still near 2270. The short-term moving averages below haven't caught up yet, so no upward support has formed.
Looking at the 4-hour chart makes it even clearer. EMA20, EMA50, and EMA100 are all pointing downward, with the long-term averages pressing down on the short-term ones. The current price is just touching the 4-hour resistance near 2290. Just above is the 4-hour EMA50, and the larger moving averages are all pressing down overhead.
Overall, I am currently bearish. The price has hit key resistance on the 4-hour chart, and the larger moving averages above are still pressing down. Without volume expansion, it's hard to break through, so the short-term is likely to pull back downward first.
$BTC $SOL #加密行业协同守护资产安全