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A rather complicated issue: Americans have the world's largest capital market, but if they want to trade perpetuals, they have to go to offshore exchanges, and if something goes wrong, there's nowhere to appeal.
CFTC Chairman Selig made it clear this time that approving stock perpetual futures is to provide U.S. traders with a regulated alternative to those offshore, usually unregulated trading venues. Note the wording: it's not "adding a new product," but "replacing".
Perpetuals have always been a gray area in the U.S. There is real demand for the product, but regulators pretend not to see it, so funds can only flow offshore. Now the authorities themselves have acknowledged this loophole, effectively admitting that offshore practices have taken volume that should have stayed domestic.
For old perpetual products like $BTC and $ETH, this is not good news in the short term. Once U.S. users have compliant stock perpetuals, they can use the same margin to trade U.S. stocks instead of crowding into crypto contracts. The liquidity pool is limited; opening another channel means the original level will drop.
But the real signal is not in stocks, but in the official recognition of the word "perpetual." Today they approve stock perpetuals; tomorrow there will be a reference framework for regulating crypto perpetuals. Compliance is never achieved in one step; it starts by legalizing one category and then expanding outward.
What’s worth pondering is: if the U.S. domestic market really develops perpetuals, what will offshore exchanges rely on to retain users? Low thresholds, high leverage, or 24/7 uninterrupted service? Regulators will not allow any of these three.$BTC 在78600一线的空头仓位至今没有撤退，价格最低被压到76600附近，而79000这道强阻力在被短暂击穿、扫掉78700上方流动性之后迅速回落——这种“假突破+快速收回”的组合，往往比单边下跌更能说明问题：上方并不缺卖压，缺的是承接。目前仓位不重，76000是必须盯住的关键支撑，一旦失守，75000甚至更低都会被摆上台面。 真正的看点不在BTC本身，而在它和$ETH的分化。$ETH本轮最高冲到2318后同样快速回落，但跌到2240附近就止住了，明显比$BTC更抗跌。2200是下一个观察位，若被击穿则要回测2100；不过现阶段仍应定性为区间震荡，上下空间都不小，节奏上更适合低买高卖，当前位置以观察为主。这种“$BTC弱、$ETH相对硬”的结构，恰恰是资金在主流资产内部做再平衡的信号，而不是全面撤退。 更值得警惕的是$SNDK的走势。它已经完全走弱，1200根本摸不到，价格连续下滑，最低已到1169，试探1000下方的意图相当明确。上方1160是阻力，下方1000是支撑，市场只能一步一步跟着验证。而当前仍有仓位在逆势硬扛——这恰恰是最容易被行情教育的位置。当一类资产连反弹都组织不Canary is submitting an ETF application for $PEPE, and I specifically verified it; the news is true!
Looking at it this way, PEPE indeed has a new potential positive catalyst worth paying attention to. No wonder Sun Ge made a big move to increase his position; it's hard not to speculate that he might have gotten the news in advance.
Recently, everyone witnessed the $ZEC ETF market rally firsthand. Once the ETF news came out, it surged violently, teaching everyone a lesson.
But there is a key point to be clear about here: after submitting the S-1, the SEC has no fixed approval timeline, and the launch time is completely unknown.
Submitting an application ≠ guaranteed approval, and Meme coins inherently face greater difficulty passing regulatory review.
So this positive news can only be considered an expectation, not a done deal. Don't treat it as a certainty to heavily bet on.
The news-driven market is highly volatile, and chasing highs carries high risk. Everyone should manage their positions carefully.
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ The US dollar is very strong today, as expected with the anticipation of an interest rate hike. So a lot of funds have exited the crypto market today.
Although the overall market has dropped, $BTC remains the strongest in the entire market. It is holding the key round number at 77,000, with the 20-day moving average pressing down at 80,500 above, and the 200-day moving average overlapping at 76,000 below?
The Bitcoin BTC spot ETF had continuous net outflows last week, totaling over 1.1 billion dollars, making it the token with the largest capital outflow.
BTC's fundamentals are not weak now; liquidity is being drained. After the midterm elections end, the money should come back.
$ETH is still the most battered high-beta asset, strong on-chain but weak institutional support. It is grinding around 2,300, with 2,200 as last year's low point; however, the spot ETF is still bleeding, with October seeing the largest net outflow of the year, and holders' profits are almost wiped out.
ETH is falling because institutions are withdrawing, not because no one is using it. If 2,300 doesn't hold, I consider it a bull trap.
$SOL is a strong fundamental asset that was wrongly punished, waiting for the wind to come. It is fluctuating around 95, RSI is about to enter the oversold zone, but on-chain adoption hasn't stopped; after the Alpenglow mainnet activation, active addresses still hover around 1.88 million, SkyAI's corporate treasury has fully liquidated, and the pending selling pressure is gone.
SOL and BTC's drop is driven by macro factors; when risk appetite returns, SOL should lead. No need to flee now.🔥Hardcore insider signal from veteran traders: When retail investors collectively turn bullish, it's a precursor to a market reversal! Precisely triggered tonight!
BTC order book divergence is completely torn apart, with retail long-short ratio soaring to 2.64, showing a frenzied crowd leaning bullish, while the large holders' ratio is only 0.52, quietly turning bearish. The number of longs and shorts are completely opposed, and the market's undercurrents have already shifted.
Capital movements don't lie; mainstream coins are all reducing positions and pulling back: BTC down 2.04%, ZEC sharply down 5.92%, ETH down 1.15%, SOL down 1.41%. At the peak of bullish noise across the network, retail positions have already fled first—a classic emotional bull trap shakeout.
The logic of large holders' manipulation is extremely clear: very few bearish holders, but heavy positions are raised counter-trend to 2.17. Total network open interest fell 1.56% to 135.3 billion, while trading volume surged 36.39% to 174.9 billion. Positions shrink but volume increases, chips are rapidly rotating, indicating a clear shakeout intent.
Position cost further confirms the pattern: BTC position cost at 0.0104% remains the highest, with main holders' base positions unmoved; ZEC only 0.0064%, retail cheap chips are fleeing wildly. Large holders never compete by number, only control the market with heavy positions, prioritizing liquidation of trend-following bulls when the market starts.
At 11 PM tonight, the vacancy data will be released heavily, expected at 7.10-7.22 million, previous value 7.08 million. Before the data release, resolutely avoid retail positions; do not bottom-fish while heavy longs remain uncleared! Follow the break and trend with shorts, wait for capital to return to the bull camp, then reverse position!
Never follow emotional trends; where it's lively, there are traps!
$BTC A major event overshadowed by AI headlines: oil prices have been crashing like a stone these days, even soybeans have fallen for six consecutive sessions, approaching $12.
Iran is still verbally claiming "we are in a state of war," but the market no longer believes this card: oil tankers keep having accidents, yet oil prices continue to collapse. Remember this transmission chain: geopolitical tensions should push oil prices up, raise inflation, and force central banks not to cut interest rates; this is what risk assets truly fear. Now that oil prices have softened first, it's like removing half of the "inflation + rate hike" thorn.
Logically, this is good news for risk assets. But look at $BTC, even with oil crashing, it doesn't rise because its root problem is not macro but the leverage on itself. Don't expect a macro stimulus to save your long positions.
Do you see this oil price crash as a positive or a warning?Today, the Wall Street Fear and Greed Index reads 20, stuck firmly in the "Extreme Fear" zone.
Many longtime bears get excited when they see this number, thinking the crash is finally coming and rush to short. This is exactly where beginners are most likely to lose money. Extreme fear + deep oversold conditions + more and more shorts piling up—these three combined often signal not an accelerated drop, but fuel for a rebound.
My bias is bearish, but bearish doesn't mean chasing shorts at extreme fear levels. $BTC is now hovering around 77,000 with volume shrinking to almost nothing. At this point, I'd rather wait for it to bounce, let those who need to sell get cleaned out first, and then make a move from a more comfortable level. The biggest mistake a trader can make is pushing chips in when they're most excited.
Is extreme fear a signal for you to add to your position or to exit?The next bull market will definitely not be a broad-based bull market, but an extremely structural bull market.
In the past, our crypto trading logic was simple: hold through the bear market, wait for the halving, then wait for Bitcoin to rally, and then altcoins would broadly rise. But now, this approach has completely failed.
Why? Look at the current environment: all the funds have been sucked up by AI giants to build computing power centers, US Treasury yields are tightly capped, and there is simply not that much new money flowing into the market. Meanwhile, projects are launching faster than retail investors can keep up, and old coins are constantly unlocking and dumping. With this limited amount of capital, how could it possibly free all the trapped altcoin positions?
Therefore, funds can only cluster together. Bitcoin and Ethereum have become exclusive games for institutional ETFs and treasury companies, while those worthless altcoins with no real business, relying purely on storytelling, will, even if a bull market comes, slowly have their liquidity drained and gradually decline to zero.
In the past, we thought that as long as we survived the bear market, we could wait for spring. But you are right, many people might actually die in the bull market. Because they picked the wrong assets, watching Bitcoin hit new highs every day while their "value coins" remain stagnant like dead water, their mentality completely collapses, and they can’t help but cut losses to chase highs, only to become the bag holders again.
I have always emphasized to you that in this cycle, Bitcoin and other mainstream assets will dominate absolutely. Stop fantasizing about hundredfold or thousandfold altcoin miracles; even if they exist, the odds are lower than winning the lottery—why would it be you?
The industry is indeed getting better, but the trend toward fewer retail investors is also real. For ordinary people to survive in this market, the first rule is not to go against the trend. #US stocks and gold & silver fall sharply in sync, risk-averse capital flows diverge This round of simultaneous weakness in US stocks and gold & silver breaks the traditional risk-hedging logic. The core reason is the rise in real interest rates combined with cross-market deleveraging. The market is repricing the Fed's hawkish bias expectations, US Treasury yields are rising, and the holding cost of non-yielding assets like gold and silver increases; meanwhile, many multi-asset portfolios and leveraged accounts face unrealized losses and are forced to sell gold and silver to free up margin for replenishment, causing risk assets and precious metals to fall together.
Risk-averse capital has not disappeared but has chosen to diverge: it no longer floods into gold but shifts to US dollar cash and short-term Treasuries, which are currently the strongest safe-haven assets. Silver, with its industrial attributes, tends to experience more severe volatility than gold during liquidity squeezes, making its declines more pronounced.
The essence of this market is that liquidity pressure outweighs geopolitical risk demand. In the short term, if US Treasury yields continue to rise, the pressure on gold and silver is unlikely to reverse; only when rate hike expectations cool down and yields turn will gold regain its hedging value.
Going forward, focus on two signals: real US Treasury yields and the US dollar index. As long as yields remain high, the risk of synchronized declines persists, and volatility across major assets will stay elevated. $BTC $ETH $ZEC Only Bitcoin is the strongest.
Among mainstream coins, ETH is the only one above the MA5.
$ETH is now 2,286.19, up 0.55%, opened at 2,273.64, highest 2,308.9, lowest 2,237.42.
Looking at the positions of the four mainstream coins together: ETH 26.1%, DOGE 15.9%, BTC 9.9%, SOL 6.2%. ETH is the only one above 20%.
More importantly, the moving averages. ETH's MA5 is at 2,260.67, with the price above it; BTC's MA5 is 77,594, with the price still 270 dollars below; SOL's MA5 is 94.49, with the price 1.1 dollars below.
But there are two issues.
First, the volume ratio is only 0.83. It's rising, but on shrinking volume.
Second, the 4-hour position is already at 80.5%, RSI 55.4. It's not cheap in the short term.
The resistance above at 2,560.21 has been tested 4 times, with 12% space left.
My judgment: slightly bullish, but only on ETH. How far the volume-shrinking rise can go depends on tomorrow's volume. Now it's about catching the dip to go long on Bitcoin, buying the dip, catching the dip!
The above is only a personal record and does not constitute investment advice.
$ETH #ETH强势拉升，空头清算超11亿美元 This morning, this chart is much more interesting than the overall market index: Nvidia rose 3%, reclaiming the top market cap spot, while Apple dropped 3.6%, giving up its throne.
The index looks stable, but underneath, there's actually a reshuffling going on. The money isn't "flowing in"; it's just moving from one giant to another. Within the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, Lattice Semiconductor jumped 13% in one day, AMD rose 6%. Such large fluctuations indicate no one really has confidence; it's all just positions being shuffled back and forth.
The market is propped up by a few super heavyweight stocks, which is the most deceptive: it makes you think the risk has been cleared, but in reality, the risk just changed its name and remains. What you really should watch isn't how many points the Nasdaq moves up or down, but where the money is hiding and how anxious it is about hiding. By the way, $BTC hasn't followed the rise or fall these past two days, shrinking its volume and cutting itself off, which is the same problem: no one dares to move.
Do you trust Nvidia more now, or the cash in your hand more? Brothers, a major week is ahead for the crypto market! With the US midterm elections, major economic releases, and Nonfarm Payrolls data approaching, Bitcoin could experience significant volatility. Any one of these events could trigger a 2,000–3,000-point move in $BTC . We have already seen how quickly markets can react to geopolitical headlines, with even a single development involving Iran creating noticeable price swings. During periods like this, some traders will capture profits while othe#对冲基金首次低配AI，科技巨头资金压力升温
"Hedge Funds Reduce Positions, Tech Giants' Cash Flow Turns Negative"
Morgan Stanley data shows that hedge funds have underweighted AI overall for the first time since 2023.
Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Oracle's free cash flow turned from a positive $143.5 billion to a negative $14 billion in the first three quarters, with buybacks down 83% year-over-year.
Previously, Meta's credit outlook turned negative. The market is closely watching the next earnings report to see if cash flow can support continued expansion. $BTC There’s something I’ve never quite figured out.
My coins have never been hacked, my wallet never lost, and I never took screenshots of my mnemonic phrase. Yet, over the years, the $BTC and $ETH in my hands have inexplicably decreased.
Later, I saw a saying: Crypto hacker attacks are a hidden transaction tax. Since 2018, the industry’s average annual market value loss due to hackers accounts for 24 basis points of the total market value; at US banks, deposit losses caused by fraud are 1.7 basis points.
That’s a 14-fold difference.
In other words, even though I did nothing, just paying the tax for others being hacked is more than ten times higher than bank users. So, while I study K-lines every day, my biggest opponent is some neighbor who forgot to back up their private key.#苹果Q4营收超预期，下季度毛利率指引承压 受整体消费环境能力下滑，我并不看好apple的未来表现Yesterday, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped 3.3%, but it bounced back 3.5% at today's open. Nvidia reclaimed the $5 trillion mark and took back the top spot in global market cap. A bunch of people see this V-shaped rebound and are ready to shout "AI correction is over, hurry up and get in."
First, let's clarify one thing: what has recovered is the price, but the fundamentals have not. What crashed this round was never profits, but the financing chain and valuation: OpenAI just cut its funding target by 10 billion last week and lowered its valuation, and Oracle's bonds dropped nearly 9% on the day they were issued. A one-day rebound can't fix the hole on the balance sheet.
This kind of day-to-day flip-flop market is exactly what I like most: it's not inviting you to bottom-fish, but giving shorts a more comfortable exit point. I don't chase this rebound; I wait for it to bounce to the level where I want to enter before making a move.
Do you see today's move as a reversal or a gift? $BTC#苹果Q4营收超预期，下季度毛利率指引承压 Apple’s Q4 revenue and profit exceeded expectations, showing strong product demand resilience. The pressure on next quarter’s gross margin guidance is mainly due to short-term disruptions caused by rising storage chip costs, not a weakening of fundamentals. Apple’s product moat remains solid, its service ecosystem continues to deepen, and with AI features gradually being implemented, the long-term growth logic remains unchanged. Short-term fluctuations actually present opportunities for positioning, and the outlook for future development is optimistic.$BTC $ETH #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ At noon I wrote here, below $BTC the 76,353.8 level only has 0.87% left; if it breaks, look at 62,395. Today's low hit 76,386, 32 dollars short, no break. Now at 77,324.1, down 0.25%, opened at 77,514.1, highest 77,884.6. The real body accounts for only 12.7%, it's a doji. Position reading 9.9%, still near the daily Bollinger lower band. RSI 14 period 31.6, 6 period 25.2, weak but not weaker. Volume ratio 1.12, no volume surge. This is key—breakout without volume means it's not panic selling, just no buyers. The 4-hour chart is a bit better: position 35.6%, RSI 41.7, bandwidth only 2.55%, heavily compressed. Support at 76,353.8 has been tested 4 times. Resistance at 81,918, still 5.9% away. My judgment: bearish turning to consolidation. Holding does not mean strength, but at least no crash today. Tomorrow we'll see if it can stand back at 77,885. #AMDQ3HeliosRevenue HUMA -20% in 24h, near $0.019. Not catching it.
Slid from $0.024 to ~$0.0193 on OKX.
Low $0.01906 this evening.
Last week's bounce to $0.0287 is gone.
~332.5M HUMA unlocks Nov 26.
I think this is selling ahead of the unlock.
Just watching.
Holds $0.019? A base can form.
Loses $0.0176? Lower.
Priced in early, or more pain into Nov 26?
$HUMA $BTC
#Crypto #Altcoins$INTC's AI semiconductor sector has been weakening recently. The earnings reports released by Google and Intel are the critical triggers driving this round of sector revaluation. The market is no longer simply buying into the AI narrative; it is starting to focus on capital expenditures, free cash flow, and subsequent earnings guidance. Once expectations fall short of imagination, funds will quickly cash out and exit, thereby causing the entire computing power chip chain to come under pressure simultaneously.
Whether the sector can stop falling and reconsolidate bullish sentiment largely depends on the earnings reports of several leading chip manufacturers, especially the performance outlook provided by management. You can mark these key dates:
Tonight at midnight, AMD will report; Qualcomm will follow tomorrow at midnight; and the most watched and sector-influential Nvidia is scheduled for November 17.
These earnings reports will directly affect capital judgments on AI computing power demand, gross margins, and order momentum, which can easily trigger significant sector volatility. Whether you hold positions or plan to enter, it is recommended to mark these dates and prepare in advance to avoid sudden shocks caused by news releases.
Risk warning: This is only a personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice. Technology earnings season is highly volatile; please pay attention to position risk control.ETF Funds "Tug of War": Are Institutions Actually Withdrawing or Buying?
The market is quite interesting:
$ETH is more divided: On November 2, it finally ended five consecutive outflows with a net inflow of 3.2 million, but looking back one day,
$ETHA just recorded a net outflow of 138 million.
On the $SOL side, the record of five consecutive days of net inflows just hit a new single-day high for the year, followed immediately by a cumulative five-day outflow of 63.4 million.
With the same set of data, both bulls and bears can find ammunition. This is precisely the most authentic signal right now: institutions are not acting in unison, and funds are repeatedly testing the waters.
In terms of price, BTC is hovering around 77,000, facing short-term pressure after losing 78,000; ETH is holding at the 2,260 level, with 2,300-2,310 as the first resistance; SOL has support near 93, but above 96 is a resistance zone, and a true bullish turn requires reclaiming 100.
On the macro side, the Federal Reserve held steady on October 28, keeping rates at 3.75%-4%, with the next meeting scheduled for December 8-9. In the short term, no major macro variables will break the deadlock, so the tug of war in funds will be more directly reflected in prices.
Whoever’s ETF fund flow can maintain net inflows for three consecutive days will have the real conditions for a bullish turn. A single day of gains doesn’t count; continuity is the attitude.
This is just a market record and does not constitute investment advice. Who do you think will first show continuous ETF fund flow in this round, BTC or ETH?
#苹果Q4营收超预期，下季度毛利率指引承压 UBS's take this time seems to be pretty spot on! Let me explain it in plain language, using the crypto world as an example. Even if we look at the big picture and think the future economy will be bad, and expect $BTC to still drop. But do you really dare to short it?
Shorting at this stage is very risky, mainly because liquidity is too low. It's quite abnormal that $BTC can maintain this price with such low liquidity.
Therefore, if there's even a bit of uncertainty around the midterm elections, it could easily trigger the market and lead to a short squeeze! The fear is $BTC funds flowing back in, which with such low liquidity can easily cause a big price surge!
Right now, the biggest fear is the uncertainty of the midterm elections!
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ One number is worth all crypto holders stopping to take a look: 24 basis points.
Lorenzo Valente, Head of Digital Asset Research at ARK Invest, states that since 2018, the average annual market value lost to hacks in the crypto industry accounts for 24 basis points of the total market cap. By comparison, the US banking system's deposit losses due to fraud are 1.7 basis points. The difference is about 14 times.
24 basis points sounds small, but intuitively it’s not: if you hold core assets like $BTC or $ETH this year and do nothing, you still pay for others' private key management mistakes, and this cost is directly deducted from the valuation of the entire asset pool.
Why is it so costly structurally? Because there is no deposit insurance on-chain, transactions are irreversible, and theft is final. Banks have insurance, recourse, and regulatory backstops when defrauded, which socializes the cost down to 1.7 basis points; on-chain theft must be borne entirely by holders, so it remains priced in as a discount over the long term.
Valente calls this an implicit transaction tax, which is an accurate description. It’s not a black swan event from a single incident but a structural cost of this asset class—so long as code remains the sole law, a security premium must be factored into pricing.
A point worth considering: if 24 basis points is the norm, then security itself should become a factor that can be priced, rather than a narrative only recalled after an incident occurs. #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？
Behind the ballots, voters' demands are very clear: inflation, housing, oil prices, and healthcare costs are the core issues of this election. The high cost of living continues to suppress voter confidence and is the biggest campaign focus for the Democratic Party.
Besides congressional seats, there are two other directions worth continuous tracking. First is the industrial policy: the two parties have huge differences on new energy subsidies, chip export controls, and trade policies with China; the election results will influence the direction of subsequent industrial legislation. Second is the results of state governors and referendums; governor seats will determine each state's energy, immigration, and labor policies, which will have a long-term impact on the industrial chain layout.
This election will not immediately change the global landscape but will continuously send signals over the next two years: the pace of US fiscal, trade, and regulatory tightening or loosening will be set by this round of voting.
$BTC $ETH Historical pattern of $BTC: In the year following the first three U.S. midterm elections, it always rose
24.5% in 2014, 44.9% in 2018, and even reached 92.3% in 2022. Today, midterm election voting begins, and many are hoping for another bullish rally.
This data is calculated from the closing price on election day to the closing price on the same day one year later. However, history does not equal direct replication; in 2018, there was a sharp drop in the first month after the election, and even though a big rally followed, the interim volatility was unavoidable.
Rather than betting on the outcome by staring at historical data, I am more concerned about how changes in congressional seats will affect crypto policy. Previously, the CLARITY Act was stuck in the Senate, and the post-election seat distribution will determine whether there is room to advance this bill.
Going forward, the focus is on two things: whether policy expectations can ease a bit and whether U.S. Treasury yields can cool down. Combined with continuous inflows of spot funds, the market will have the confidence to sustain an upward trend. If inflation and oil prices continue to rise and interest rate expectations suppress the market, short-term rebounds will struggle to go far.
My view: As long as no new lows are made after the election, bulls have a chance to stabilize.
Once policy expectations and capital form a synergy, BTC will find it easier to achieve a decent rally.
History can only be used as a reference; never treat it as a guaranteed signal.
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ $CORE Core's market situation is quite ironic.
There were 34,000 transactions in one day, but the total DEX trading volume was less than $150, and the daily fees were just over $1.
The chain is moving fast, but it's purely empty turnover to inflate the data. The buy-side depth has long been exhausted, and there’s basically no one taking orders below.
If any tokens leak down from above, they can easily break through the buy orders. This kind of trend without any capital support means even a little selling pressure is a bottomless pit.
#CORE
$CORE
👇ETF saw an outflow of $399 million in one day, Binance experienced a net withdrawal of $4.72 billion within two days of resuming withdrawals, and Bitcoin still failed to hold $77,000.
On Monday, the US spot Bitcoin ETF had a net outflow of $399 million, marking the second consecutive day of outflows.
BlackRock alone saw an outflow of $405 million, the largest single-day outflow since June, exceeding the total market net outflow.
On the same side, Binance had a net outflow of $4.72 billion after resuming withdrawals on Sunday, accounting for about 3% of the platform's assets, but at the same time, $2.7 billion flowed back in, and withdrawal volume has been declining.
Bitcoin briefly dropped to $76,300 during the session, with a 24-hour total liquidation of $383 million across the network, a sharp increase of 171% compared to the previous day.
Money is flowing out, prices are dipping, but it hasn't reached a panic sell-off stage; outflows account for only 3%, so it's not a bank run.
I think this round is a normal bleed during a trust repair period, not the start of a new crash. Observe without chasing or catching falling knives.
Invalidation point: If the ETF has consecutive outflows for two more days with single-day outflows exceeding $500 million, or if Bitcoin breaks below $75,000 on high volume, this judgment is void.
Which do you think will stop bleeding first, the ETF or Binance withdrawals?
$BTC $IBIT
#BitcoinETF single-day outflow of $399 million #BTC现货ETF三日流出近4.5亿美元 The US stock market can now trade perpetuals, and it's a compliant entry.
This time, the CFTC didn't approve it by voting; it automatically passes after a 45-day review window.
Only exchanges registered with both the CFTC and the SEC can list them.
Kalshi's application on September 18 listed 58 contracts, including Apple, Tesla, Nvidia, and Microsoft.
Previously, these products were only available on overseas platforms; now they've moved into the US regulatory sphere.
The highlight isn't just the addition of a new product but that the perpetuals, a crypto-style trading method, have officially entered US stock market rules.
Regarding margin, don't just look at the low threshold; Kalshi requires a 15.5% margin to hold positions and will automatically liquidate during sharp drops.
#CFTC #Kalshi #Perpetuals🚀 $ETH SURGES INTO 2,300 ZONE – LEVERAGE PLAY ON FIRE! 🟢
Entry: 2,287-2,294 ⚡
Target: 2,319 / 2,445 🚀
Stop Loss: 2,150 ⚠️
📊 Smart money has been gobbling liquidity around the 2,280‑2,300 band, and sellers are finally flashing red. 🦈 The order flow on the 4H shows a clean break, with volume spiking as bulls flip the script. ⚡ With 70× leverage, the upside can rocket if the next wave holds. $MEW is coiling up tightly near major support for an explosive recovery.
Smart money is absorbing the dip with strong buying conviction.
Buy Zone
0.0003720 - 0.0003848
Ep
0.0003760 - 0.0003841
Tp
0.0004100
0.0004400
0.0004750
Sl
0.0003600
Selling momentum has completely stalled out at the demand zone. Expect a rapid bullish impulse to ignite shortly.
Let's go $MEW
#OKXOrbitTopics . 【Binance Net Inflow Turns Positive: +$2.3 Billion】
On November 3, Binance's 24-hour net inflow turned positive to +$2.3 billion—on the third day after withdrawal resumption, deposits began to flow back, reversing the massive outflow from the previous day. During the same period, OKX recorded a net inflow of $445 million (it had been the main recipient in the previous days). Why it matters: This is the first hard indicator of "trust repair" since the Binance incident. The narrative for the previous three days was "$5.8 billion outflow, stress test"; turning positive means some of the withdrawn funds have started to return. The real recovery curve will take weeks, but the appearance of this turning point is more convincing than any official statement.$HMSTR is charging forward with unstoppable green momentum.
Price action is breaking through key local hurdles cleanly.
Buy Zone
0.0001320 - 0.0001374[span_13](start_span)[span_13](end_span)
Ep
0.0001340 - 0.0001371[span_14](start_span)[span_14](end_span)
Tp
0.0001460
0.0001550
0.0001660
Sl
0.0001270
The order book shows heavy demand stacking up underneath the current price. Continuation higher is heavily favored.
Let's go $HMSTR
#OKXOrbitTopics . $xAAPL Negative news: Apple itself says memory costs will continue to rise, holiday season gross margin will be pressured
Apple's stock fell 3.9% pre-market after earnings, the company warned that memory chip costs will keep increasing, putting pressure on holiday season gross margins
iPhone sales are a highlight, but Greater China revenue fell short of expectations, growth could not offset cost pressures
OKX XAAPL reported $331.52, down 2.67% in 24 hours, intraday dropped from 347.08 down to 322.03
Nasdaq 100 closed Monday more than 10% below its all-time high, entering a correction zone, big tech AI spending returns are being reassessed, and Apple's gross margin guidance hits this critical point.
#苹果Q4营收超预期，下季度毛利率指引承压 CRV is now at 0.2643, having fallen below the MA200.
This doesn't look like a sentiment-driven sell-off; it seems to be driven by fundamentals.
Down 20.4% in 7 days, down 28.5% in 30 days.
Down 98.3% from the all-time high.
All moving averages are overhead.
MA200 is 0.2692, and the price is below it.
MA20 is 0.3348, MA50 is 0.3477.
At first, I thought a 28% drop would trigger a rebound, but after checking TVL, I changed my mind.
Curve's TVL is currently 1.088 billion.
7 days ago it was 1.167 billion, down 6.8%.
30 days ago it was 1.295 billion, down 15.9%.
One year ago it was 2.208 billion, down more than half.
The key point is this: price is falling, and TVL is also falling.
This is not just a shift in token holders; money is actually withdrawing from the protocol.
There is a figure for valuation.
Market cap is 418 million, TVL is 1.088 billion, ratio is 0.38.
Looking at the ratio alone, it’s not expensive.
But the denominator is shrinking.
TVL has been halved, so this ratio is passively becoming cheaper.
So I look at two things for the direction.
Whether TVL has stopped falling.
Whether fees can hold: 2.13 million in 7 days, about 300k daily on average.
Do you think Curve is at a cyclical bottom, or has it been replaced by more efficient stablecoin venues? $CRV #AppleQ4MarginPressure Are the U.S. midterm elections definitely bullish for Bitcoin? Historical data might not be that straightforward.
- U.S. Stocks: Since 1950, after 19 U.S. midterm elections, the S&P 500 has risen one year later, with an average increase of 15.1%. However, the largest pre-election drawdown this year was only about 9%, far below the historical median of 16%, indicating a different market starting point. $BNB Sun Ge strikes again, really high.
Everyone is saying Sun Ge overnight pledged TRX, minted USDD, and scraped together 140 million to pump into Binance.
Do you think he just wanted to grab the 10% cashback after Binance was hacked, simply to earn interest?
Wrong, he first safely stored his own money in Binance, then went back to Huobi to launch a 10% promotion to attract users to deposit money.
The funds users deposit, he doesn’t need to put up principal for, the interest is just supplemented by Binance.
His principal is lying with the counterparty earning interest, your principal is being used by him as deposited funds.
This is what real “attracting deposits without spending your own money” looks like 😂Funding rate 0.01%, looks like a small fraction, but many beginners get worn down slowly by this “small fraction.”
Tonight on OKX, the funding rate for $BTC perpetual contracts is 0.01%, settled every 8 hours, with BTC price around 77,000 USD. Let's do the math: at this rate, opening a 10,000 U long position means paying 1 U every 8 hours, 3 U per day, about 90 U per month. If you use 10x leverage, the margin is only 1,000 U, and the funding fees alone eat up 9% of the margin in a month. Even if the price doesn’t move a cent, you’ve already lost.
A few points that are easy to confuse:
· The rate is calculated based on position value, not margin; the higher the leverage, the more expensive it is relative to margin;
· Positive rate means longs pay shorts, negative rate is the opposite; this money is not taken by the exchange;
· Fees are only paid if you hold the position at the settlement moment; the rate changes every period and is not fixed.
My view: 0.01% is a neutral level, it doesn’t indicate whether the price will rise or fall. But if you plan to hold contracts for weeks, you should consider it as a holding cost, not just focus on the opening fee.
Do you check the funding rate before opening a contract? November fear could become the catalyst for Bitcoin's next rally. Historically, midterm election uncertainty has created periods of panic that turned into attractive $BTC accumulation opportunities. Bitcoin may have already established a cycle bottom around $58,000 in June, with this cycle showing less downside compared to previous midterm years. However, more volatility and uncertainty could still be ahead. If you're investing with a 2–3 year outlook, periods of extreme fear may present opportBitcoin Drops Below $77,000 as ETF Outflows Shake Market
Bitcoin ($BTC) fell below $77,000, hitting around $76,300 as investors pulled money from Bitcoin ETFs. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded nearly $399 million in outflows on November 2, adding pressure to the market. Traders are now watching whether Bitcoin can recover or face further losses.
#Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto #BitcoinETF #CryptoMarket#AMD财报前瞻：HeliosAI系统商业化进展 The real determinant of AMD's valuation ceiling in this earnings report is whether Helios AI can move from concept to orders, rather than just whether revenue exceeds expectations. If management can provide clear customer deployments, delivery schedules, and revenue recognition, the AI narrative has a chance to be repriced; if there is only a roadmap without commercialization evidence, any post-earnings rebound will be hard to sustain. Currently, the YES position is slightly down 1.17%, and what I am waiting for is the earnings report to turn the “story” into “numbers”. $SOL continues to show strong ecosystem development, especially in the Real-World Asset (RWA) sector and overall network activity. However, this growth still needs to translate into consistent demand for the token itself. Meanwhile, the upcoming US midterm elections are introducing additional uncertainty around policy and regulation, potentially keeping market volatility elevated. At this stage, Solana’s fundamentals appear stronger than overall market sentiment. What the market needs next is a[The US and Iran negotiate while exchanging fire, $100 oil price begins trading on ceasefire expectations]
Trump threatens that if necessary, he won't hesitate to cause Iranian casualties, while the US military launches limited strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island; meanwhile, Qatar is pushing both sides to review plans to end the conflict. Oil prices initially fell, with Brent $BZ retreating to around $100, as the market clearly starts betting on a cooling of tensions.
The core of this decline is the expectation of the Strait of Hormuz reopening. Once the US lifts the blockade and Iran resumes shipping, the risk premium on crude supply will be squeezed out, and the oil price buildup caused by the war will naturally be given back. This is positive news for energy-importing countries and global inflation.
However, it is still too early to declare the war over. Qatar confirmed that both sides are still reviewing mediation plans, but Iranian officials told Reuters that there is still a significant gap before a US-Iran agreement; nuclear issues, sanctions, and control of the strait remain tough challenges.
In the short term, oil prices continue to face pressure from ceasefire expectations, but the $100 level will see repeated tug-of-war. Prices fall when negotiations progress and rebound when military conflict escalates. Going forward, the real factor determining oil price direction will not be Trump's tough rhetoric, but whether the Strait of Hormuz can restore stable navigation.SanDisk surged 5% at the open.
But the earnings report isn't today's event.
The earnings report was released after the market closed on October 29, and the data looks great.
Revenue was 11.03 billion, expected 10.68 billion.
Adjusted EPS was 49.51, expected 46.27.
Data center revenue was 4.8 billion, up 61% quarter-over-quarter.
Gross margin was 85.1%, higher than last quarter.
They also announced a 1-for-8 stock split on November 19.
Then it dropped 5.32% that day, and another 3.8% after hours.
So today's rally has nothing to do with the earnings report; it's driven by the sector.
SK Hynix was +7.79% pre-market, Micron +3%, SanDisk +4.73%.
There's a figure going around: the combined Q3 operating profit of the five major storage manufacturers exceeded that of the five major U.S. tech giants, up 10 times year-over-year.
Even more contrasting was yesterday: Kioxia dropped nearly 15%, a six-month low.
U.S. storage stocks didn't follow at all.
At first glance, I also thought these numbers would lead to a higher open, but the stock fell on the earnings day.
The token surged to 1,155.64 after the open, 8% higher than the overnight low.
Trading volume in the first hour was 270,000 lots, 2.5 times that of the previous hour.
The market isn't buying this performance; it's buying into the fact that "storage prices are still rising."
Is this storage rally a real cycle change, or has AI prematurely priced in the valuation? $SNDK Chainlink has expanded its low-latency data streams to cover the five major Asia-Pacific core stock markets: Mainland China, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Hong Kong, and has taken the lead in launching on leading protocols such as Jupiter, Lighter, and Predict.
Leveraging Solana's high throughput, after introducing Asia-Pacific stock data, Jupiter Perps is very likely to launch on-chain perpetual contracts for core tech stocks in Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, directly meeting the high-leverage trading demands of Asian retail investors.
Lighter has demonstrated that the on-chain CLOB model is capable of supporting traditional stock-level high-frequency market making.
In addition to directly going long/short on stock prices, Predict's stock data streams can provide decentralized automatic settlement sources for earnings season speculation, index point forecasting, and macroeconomic event hedging.
In the past, in the low-latency Pull oracle field, Pyth Network occupied a large share of the Perp DEX market due to its first-mover advantage in Solana's ecosystem and high-frequency pricing for US stocks/forex. Chainlink's direct entry into core platforms like Jupiter with stock market data from five Asia-Pacific regions is not only a positive counterattack in the high-frequency derivatives oracle market but will also convert fees generated by high-frequency trading directly into real revenue for the Chainlink network through per-call billing, revenue sharing, and the SVR mechanism.
$LINK #Perspectives of Palantir's financial report: can strong growth justify a high valuation salutePreviously, perpetual contracts were criticized as offshore gambling, but now the CFTC has directly approved Perp for US stock individual shares.
Back then, the old money scoffed at the mechanism of no delivery and hard pegging through funding rates, but now they've directly brought this system into US stock individual shares.
Once compliant individual stock perpetuals launch, with funding rates and liquidation bots entering the scene, how can the traditional rule of weekend market closure still hold? Who is assimilating whom after all? 📈
$BTC
$ETH $IRYS IRYS's rebound looks impressive, but the order book is actually extremely weak.
The price was forcibly pushed up by 64.8%, but the trading volume shrank by 85.2%.
It's clear the main players never intended to take the goods; they just pushed up a couple of orders because the order book was too thin.
The buy side has long dried up; above are all trapped positions.
This kind of volume-less forced rise will fall back the same way as soon as there's any selling pressure.
#IRYS
$IRYS
👇Seeing a large order, I also get tempted first. Core Trader 90 opened a long HYPE position with 10x leverage, with a notional value of about $171,600.
I'm more concerned about the leverage: a roughly 10% adverse move could approach liquidation, depending on the margin situation. The party involved might fear missing out, but onlookers tend to take large positions as bullish evidence and selectively focus on positive news, which is confirmation bias.
This trade hasn't concluded yet. I remind myself: don't take someone else's risk exposure as a source of your own confidence.🚨 WALL STREET IS STACKING BITCOIN — IS THIS A BIGGER SIGNAL THAN WE THINK? 🏦₿
While the market stays under pressure, corporate giants are still adding to their Bitcoin bags.
Strategy and Strive have purchased another 934 BTC worth $72.6M, strengthening Bitcoin’s place in corporate treasury strategies.
Here’s what matters: Every BTC absorbed by long-term holders means less supply available for the market. 👀
#Bitcoin #StrategyBuys811BTC #CryptoMarket #InstitutionalAdoption
#DailyOrbit ZEC gave the believers a lesson again today! OKX spot dropped nearly 6% in 24 hours, with the price back around $1170. We were just discussing the value of privacy coins recently, and now with a single bearish candle, I guess many people are starting to question their lives again. I've always thought some people in Orbit are really interesting. When prices rise, they talk about technological revolution; when prices fall, they talk about long-termism; once trapped, they start researching faith! ZEC's privacy technology is valuable, I don't deny that. But valuable technology doesn't mean it's reasonable to pay any amount of money for it! Don't confuse a good project with a good price, and don't mistake being trapped for long-term investment! 🔥 Holders of ZEC in the comments, speak up! Were you trapped at a high price this time, or are you preparing to buy the dip? I want to hear how the truly profitable people operate. Also welcome those who lost money to share their experiences, so the comment section isn't just full of profit screenshots! Let's discuss together! $ZEC #ZEC hits new highs again, valuation re-evaluation draws attention