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In the afternoon when discussing oil prices, my biggest concern was that the market might prematurely treat a ceasefire as positive news, and if the news fails to materialize, what would support the rebound? By evening, this risk had already started to show.
Trump claimed that Russia and Ukraine agreed to stop attacking energy facilities, but Ukraine reported continued attacks on energy facilities, and Russia only said relevant contacts were ongoing without confirming the implementation of any agreement. Meanwhile, Saudi airports were attacked, and risks to oil tanker transportation have not disappeared. Brent crude briefly fell to $103 during intraday trading, then bounced back to around $106.
In my view, the market is being pulled by two expectations: the possibility of easing the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the hope for increased Russian diesel supply, but supply and transportation risks in the Middle East remain. With oil prices fluctuating, inflation concerns are hard to truly dissipate.
Looking at Bitcoin $BTC, it surged past 84,000 during the day but retreated to around 83,000 at night; Ethereum $ETH touched 2,580 before falling back. I wouldn’t say oil prices directly caused the crypto price drop, but the brief positive news did not lead to sustained gains, and the daytime rebound hasn’t fully stabilized yet.
So tonight, I’m more cautious about the rebound than in the afternoon, leaning towards a wait-and-see approach in the short term, but I’m not rushing to call it a bull trap.$CLSK raised $2.276 billion to build that data center.
To conclude: this money is not for hoarding coins, it's for building the facility.
In September, they mined 529 coins, sold 702 coins, with an average selling price of $72,928.
Holdings also dropped by 173 coins, leaving 13,530 coins.
Simply put, miners are no longer playing the "hold to death" game; they cash out as soon as they mine, focusing on survival first.
What really caught my eye is Meta's lease agreement, generating $6.6 billion in revenue.
The mining farm is pivoting to become a landlord; this story sounds better than mining.
But don't get ahead of yourself, the money comes in over several years, not all at once tomorrow.
Veteran investors feel one thing when seeing this kind of news: exhaustion.
Miners are starting to seek support, indicating that pure mining days are indeed tough.
This wave is rather neutral, not chasing it.
Just want to ask: how many miners are still holding on hard?
#InstitutionsKeepPositioning, WhyIsBTCStillUnderPressure?
#TradingVoice: YourExperienceDeservesToBeHeard $ETH $RSR 晚间这波反弹行情如期兑现，0.002402进场的多单，价格稳步向上推进。
当时小周期底部形态成型，多次下探都没能创新低，资金承接力度走强，判断短线具备反弹空间顺势开仓。
每一笔单子，提前规划好出场方案。
持仓继续保留，动态调整防守点位锁定收益。
高位不建议追单，等待回调企稳再评估。合约波动较大，任何时刻都不能忽视风控管理。$ETH $BTC #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 Can we chase this ETH rebound? My judgment: short-term recovery is relatively strong, but trend reversal still needs confirmation.
According to the screenshot, ETH is around $2546, with 4-hour MA5, MA10, and MA20 approximately at 2531, 2518, and 2504 respectively; short-term moving averages have already formed a bullish alignment. 🪙ETH Market Forecast
⬆️ Bull Scenario: The price stops falling near 2510, no new lows are made, and the 1-hour chart climbs back above 2550. The market will retest the high around 2580. However, the daily large cycle is weak, so even if there is a second rally, it is likely a rebound that will fall back, making a direct reversal into a major bull market unlikely.
⬇️ Bear Scenario: The 4-hour candlestick closes below 2515 with increased volume, signaling the end of this rebound. The market will continue to test the 2500 level; if 2500 breaks, it will retest the low at 2410.
$ETH
#CPI and PPI announcements are imminent, interest rate hike expectations face a test #Russia-Ukraine may reach an "energy ceasefire" agreement, progress pending confirmation Sorry, Lord $SNDK, I overestimated you!
Can you drop back below 1700,
so I can get out of my position before it falls further!
It's all because US debt and the dollar are too high.
It's putting pressure on my tech stocks!
I've been supporting you to get back to 2000,
but you pulled a big mess,
which really disappointed me!
Whether it's $MU or $SKHYNIX,
storage is on the decline.
Brothers are long like workhorses,
this is the conclusion I've come to.
Short storage is better than long storage!STRK dropped 7.7% in the 21:00 hour, with spot trading volume expanding to 2.4 times that of the previous hour.
The full hourly K-line on OKX shows the price closing from $0.10385 to $0.0959, with about $3.98 million traded. At 22:00, it dipped to $0.09192; by 22:29, it rebounded to $0.0948, still down about 16.1% over 24 hours.
My judgment remains bearish. The pullback has not yet reclaimed the 21:00 closing price, and the hour of decline had clear volume support. Checking the order book within ±1%, there are about $57,000 and $53,000 respectively, indicating depth is not very ample.
An increase in volume cannot be directly interpreted as sellers dominating, as buyers stepping in can also increase volume. If the subsequent full hour closes back above $0.0959 and volume does not noticeably shrink during the rebound, I will revise my view; if it breaks below $0.09192 again, then it depends on whether volume continues to expand.
$STRK 100x leverage is both a devil and an angel. When $SOL hovered at 111.42, I sensed the bulls' fuel running out.
Decisively went full leverage short, every small bearish candle was replenishing my account.
155.26% profit secured, mark price at 109.69.
There is no margin for error under 100x leverage; the bearish momentum still persists, but I am always ready to close the position with one click and take profits, never greedy.
$BTC $ETH #Russia-Ukraine may reach an "energy ceasefire" agreement, progress pending confirmation $OKB, although valued at 25 billion, doesn't seem to have made much profit.
On October 4th, OKX and the NYSE parent company ICE's joint venture OKXICE filed with the SEC to tokenize 63 US stocks on X Layer, including Nvidia and Apple. On October 7th, Circle, Ripple, and SC Ventures made strategic investments in OKX, valuing it at 25 billion USD.
However, these two events did not add any direct utility to OKB. The raised funds went into OKX's balance sheet, and the tokenized stocks use stablecoin trading pairs; OKB neither participates in settlement nor in profit sharing. Its only role is as Gas on X Layer—the busier the chain, the more it benefits, but "will be busy later" and "is busy now" are two different things.
The advantage of this coin is stability, and its disadvantage is also stability: its ceiling will always equal the ceiling of the exchange's traffic.This time, OP doesn't need to rely on a catch-up story
$OP I will put it at the top of the watchlist among these three. It has risen about 6.8% in the past week, about 46% in the past month, and only a slight increase of about 0.7% in the last 24 hours this afternoon; the phase achievements still stand.
What makes it worth watching is that you don't need to assume first that "it’s lagging, so it’s its turn to rise." The price has already shown upward performance; what needs to be tested next is whether it can continue, not to find a reason to start for it.
Of course, past gains do not mean the buying cost can be ignored. I will pay attention to how much it retreats during adjustments and whether it can continue to push up when recovering. If it starts to repeatedly fall back to the original position, the previous strong rating must be revised.
$AAVE is still in repair for now; you can't just look at the project's reputation. Around 168.3 this afternoon, up about 1.4% in 24 hours, but still down about 7% in the past week.
This rebound shows improvement, but more strength is needed to fill the intra-week pullback. I want to see it continuously reclaim lost ground. The project is worth studying; whether the short-term price deserves higher expectations needs to be judged separately.
$WLD I will slightly retract the positive evaluation from last night. Around 0.551 this afternoon, both 24-hour and past week have slightly declined; the upward momentum has not continued for now.
The drop is not large, not enough to be directly pessimistic. But since the advance has stopped, there is no need to keep using the previous optimism. First, see if it can resume active upward movement; don’t keep giving it extra credit just because it was previously watched.这单$SNDK 做得极其顺畅。
1648.4开空，逻辑很纯粹：高位三次摸顶不过，量能逐日萎缩，典型顶部衰竭。
75倍杠杆，止损1680。现1472.7浮盈799%，1450附近先减仓锁利润，余仓看1430。
到位置看盘口深度再定去留，不提前脑补。$BTC $ETH #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 Brothers, Bitcoin is now at 82,877, down 1.17% in 24 hours. The 15-minute chart is very clear: the price has broken below the Bollinger middle band (83,135) and is moving close to the lower band (82,453), showing short-term weakness. Three technical signals: SuperTrend (83,123) is pressing overhead, the rebound is weak; MACD has a death cross below the zero line, but the green bars are only -26.5, with obvious volume contraction; SAR is at 82,456, forming double support with the intraday low of 82,419. Why the sideways decline? CPI and PPI are about to be released, market trading is thin, and big money is watching. Volume has shrunk to 32.98M, neither buyers nor sellers dare to make the first move. For operations, Lao Mo gives direct advice: Those with positions, set stop loss below 82,400, don’t hold through the dip. Those without positions, don’t blindly buy at 82,800. Either wait for a pullback to 82,400 to stabilize and go long with a target of 83,500; or wait for volume to pick up and break back above 83,200 before chasing on the right side. Before the data release, controlling your hands is better than anything. Protecting capital is the priority before the direction emerges. What do you think about this market move? Let’s chat in the comments. If you think Lao Mo’s analysis makes sense, give a like and follow. I’ll alert you first at key levels $BTC $ETH $ZEC 别人还在幻想$ZEC 崩盘，我的多单已经赚了238.25%。50倍杠杆，1223.29精准开多，现价1281.58，这就是专业。
很多人看不懂这波拉升，但我看得很清楚：ZEC的链上活跃地址数在过去两周增长了约40%，说明真实需求在流入。同时，合约市场未平仓量稳步上升，而价格突破时并未出现资金费率极端化——这意味着上涨仍有支撑，不是纯投机。我在1223.29位置果断介入，跟随大资金吃到了这波红利。
不过，交易不能只有进攻。1小时MACD出现死叉迹象，且1300附近存在历史套牢盘。50倍杠杆下，一次深度回调就可能让利润大幅缩水。
我的计划：立即止盈一半以上，剩余仓位挂1242止损。行情可以继续涨，但我必须保住到手的胜利成果。$BTC $ETH #ZEC跻身前十，机构化进程提速 $SPCX 这单做得很顺。
169.06开空，逻辑就一条：前高反复摸不到，量能一天比一天小，典型的顶部衰竭。75倍杠杆，止损放172，给足容错。
现在163.46浮盈248%，160附近先减仓锁利润，余仓看158。到位置看承接力度再决定去留，不提前设预期。$BTC $ETH $STRK 这空单真是越拿越有惊喜！
0.10546附近进场，现在已经跌到0.09342，50倍杠杆浮盈翻了5倍多，价格累计回撤超过11%，这段下跌确实给足了空间。
前面一直关注STRK的反弹力度，这种波动比较大的币，一旦上方抛压占据主动，买盘又迟迟跟不上，价格就容易连续往下走。
现在0.095已经跌破，接着就看0.09整数关口。如果这里也失守，空头可能继续扩大优势。
不过利润已经相当可观，准备先减掉部分仓位，把前面的成果锁住。剩下留个底仓继续观察，能不能再往下走，就交给市场了。#俄乌或达成“能源停火”协议，进展待确认 #贝森特拟查扣10亿美元伊朗相关加密资产 $STRK UNI:利好消息
芝商所CME即将上线UNI合规期货（10月19日）
芝加哥商品交易所确认，计划10月19日推出UNI期货，分标准合约（10000 UNI）、微型合约（1000 UNI），受CFTC监管，意味着传统机构资金获得合规参与UNI的工具$GRASS
GRASS surged over 20%, how does data demand translate into token holding value?
This morning's 24-hour spot observation window: range 0.6628—0.8798 USDT, change +26.02%, trading volume about 4.35 million USDT.
A large price increase draws attention but does not prove data business revenue. Data demand, paying customers, costs, and token equity need to be examined together; usage activity may only represent the first step, price cannot replace cash flow.
If there is no evidence of customer payments and the price retraces mid-range, it weakens the business explanation; if net income and equity transmission are clear, and after breaking 0.8798 it maintains higher lows, then sustainability improves.In the evening, I also wrote that BTC wouldn't break 82,957 and that the rebound wasn't finished. At night, it went straight down to 82,595, with a low of 82,567; both 82,957 and the morning session's 82,800 lines were broken together. Once invalidated, it's invalidated—no compensation. ETH's low was 2,501, just 3 dollars away from 2,498, so this lifeline is still alive. There's not much information left on the market, just enough to sting. BTC charged above 84,200 three times during the day, reaching a high of 84,362, but never held steady; at night it dropped over 1,700 dollars, yet the funding rate climbed from negative in the morning to +0.0083%. Even while falling, people are paying to take it, so I'll treat it as a trap for now. SOL's funding rate peaked at 0.01%, and the price still rose 0.65%; ETH's funding rate is only 0.0016%, rising 0.87%, one crowded, one cold. OI of 2.464 billion USD hasn't withdrawn; the chips are still on the table and haven't dispersed. Tonight's judgment is just two sentences: if volume breaks 82,567, look at 81,600; if it recovers and holds above 83,500, the bearish judgment is invalid. Before Wednesday 20:30 CPI release, I won't treat daily ups and downs as a trend. This might also be my misjudgment; we'll see the reconciliation tomorrow. What do you think—is this a failed breakout, or just a washout before CPI?$SNDK 晚上这单美股布局75x在1553.9开的空，现报1474.6浮盈378%。4小时看，1620见顶后连阴下杀，单日跌8.42%，末根放量长阴破位，新币高位筹码彻底松动，多头踩踏延续，量能288M放大印证出逃。开空逻辑：高位滞涨转一致下杀，1553破位即确认。
现逼近1474低点，下方1400是下一承接。75x极高杠杆浮盈丰厚，核心就是保命：底仓拿住让利润跑，反弹1553-1560压力带绝不加仓，站稳成本区直接止盈。高倍空单最怕V返，浮盈再多不如实盈。活下来比什么都重要，赚多少是市场给的。后续盘感继续记笔记，欢迎交流。ETH Is Being Called a Stablecoin, but My 5x Long Remains Open
ETH is hovering around $2,530 amid ETF outflows, negative funding, and weak market sentiment. Yet crowded bearish positions could create a sharp short squeeze if momentum reverses.
My view: If rate cuts are confirmed, capital may flow into BTC first and then ETH. But the timing remains uncertain.
My Strategy: Isolated margin, 5x leverage, no impulsive additions, and strict risk management.
Patience matters, but leverage BTC opened at about $83,500, fluctuating upward in the first hour to around $84,050, close to Sunday's high of $84,145, showing a mild rebound pattern. The 24-hour increase is about 1.17%, with short liquidations across the network accounting for 65%, and short covering being the main driving force.
Technically, the price has risen back above the EMA(60) moving average, the MACD green bars continue to shorten, indicating weakening short-term downward momentum, but the previous high at $84,177 forms a key resistance; only a breakout with volume can confirm the continuation of the rebound. The short-term support range is between $83,350 and $83,500. On-chain data shows that $84,000 to $85,000 is the most concentrated cost range for holders, with about 53% of positions having a cost basis above the current price; whether it breaks through or not will determine the rebound space.
Capital pressure is significant: Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $681 million last week, the largest scale since June, with institutional sentiment tending to be cautious. The core variable this week is the US CPI data on October 14, with the market expecting core CPI year-over-year at 2.5%. If the data is stronger, it may suppress risk assets; if moderate, it could open up upside potential. $BTC shows a bearish state.
However, in the past 24 hours, short positions have been liquidated for a few hundred million, while long positions only saw about 50 million liquidated.
It was previously advised that short positions should wait until the 4-hour level reaches near overbought, which means the RSI value is around 65.BTC current price is around 82937, with hourly resistance at 82968. The moving averages are converging downward, MACD has formed a death cross and bearish momentum continues. Although RSI is in oversold territory, it has not yet turned up, so the short-term trend is still dominated by bears. On the liquidation map, there is massive long liquidation pressure around 83639, and above 84000 is the area where shorts accumulate, indicating that price rebounds are prone to triggering a chain of forced liquidations, limiting the rebound space.
Just finished climbing to the sixth floor and delivering an order, but the debt collection calls on my phone haven't stopped, my hands are shaking.
Therefore, do not catch oversold rebounds here, only short on the pullback. Entry range is set between 83200 and 83600, with a stop loss above 84100. Take profit is first targeted at 82000, and reduce positions if it breaks 81500. If it breaks below 82500 with volume, you can lightly chase shorts, with a stop loss at 83100 and a target near 81000. In the current low-volume environment, liquidation-driven shocks will amplify volatility, so position size must be controlled.
$BTC
#TSMC Q3 revenue hits a record high, what other highlights are there in the October 15 earnings report?
@OKX Planet ETH opened at about $2,530, quickly surged to the intraday high of $2,578 in the first hour, then retreated under pressure to around $2,545, showing a spike-and-fall inverted V pattern.
Technically, the 1-hour price remains above MA-20 (2,540) and MA-50 (2,518), but the 15-minute MACD has formed a death cross, and RSI has fallen from the overbought zone to 33.8, indicating a short-term profit-taking phase. The $2,558 to $2,578 range is the resistance zone for this small peak, while $2,490 to $2,500 below serves as strong support for the rebound.
Capital pressure is significant: Ethereum spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $542 million last week, with BlackRock's ETHA leading with a net outflow of $477 million for the week, marking nine consecutive trading days of net outflows. The key variable this week is the U.S. CPI data on October 14, with the market showing strong wait-and-see sentiment, likely maintaining a short-term oscillation between $2,490 and $2,578. $ETH $STRK 这单50x在0.10373开空，现报0.0937，浮盈489%。
回头看这笔单子，开仓逻辑其实不复杂。0.1268那根顶部K线出来之后，盘面给我的感觉就是"不对劲"——拉升末期量能跟不上，追涨的人越来越少，但价格还在硬撑。这种状态维持不了太久。果然消息面一配合，代币解锁加上网络活跃度下降，直接成了压垮多头的最后一根稻草。
连阴下杀，单日跌幅21%+，量能持续放大。这说明什么？不是散户恐慌，是持仓大户在集中兑现。0.10这个心理关口跌破后几乎没有像样反弹，说明下方接盘意愿极弱，筹码在加速重构。
现在价格逼近0.09，我处理很简单：底仓继续拿，这是利润垫最厚的时候，让子弹再飞一会儿。但反弹到0.10附近我绝对不加仓，站稳0.1037直接止盈走人。如果往下破0.09，下一个看0.069的支撑区。抓住$W 这波趋势行情，0.02102布局多单，价格走出大幅上行。
前期底部震荡洗盘，浮动筹码清洗充分，承接力量充足，才选择顺势布局。
做交易要沉下心等待优质机会，减少频繁开仓的损耗。
持仓继续持有，移动止损保住现有利润。大涨之后不适合追入，想要参与等待回调机会。
杠杆交易波动剧烈，预留安全空间，理性看待行情机会。$ETH $BTC #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 $ARB is directly pumping today. Up 6.97% in 24 hours.
Why is it moving? Because real money is coming in.
Robinhood Chain has again allocated a portion of its ecosystem revenue to the Arbitrum treasury. This chain is built on Arbitrum Orbit, and since the mainnet launch in July, its daily fees once surged to $1.9 million, usually only $100,000, a 19-fold increase in a week. According to protocol rules, 10% of net revenue flows back to the Arbitrum ecosystem, 8% goes to the DAO treasury. In two months, $1.3 million has been distributed; the DAO earned $6.19 million in the first half of the year with a 97% gross margin. The RWA narrative really supports this.
However, some of the volume on Robinhood Chain is generated by launchpads and trading bots, not genuine equity trading, raising suspicions of wash trading. Also, this script was played out once in September; credibility will be discounted if it happens again.
Additionally, this Friday, 139.2 million ARB tokens will unlock, worth $28 million at current prices, with concentrated releases from September to October. Be cautious of selling pressure $SPCX Opening trade strategy execution day five
Today at the open, both long and short positions were hit hard, with extreme volatility!
Formed a bearish engulfing candlestick
The long position was stopped out shortly after opening; breakout trades are most vulnerable to choppy markets. Stay flat for a short time and wait for tomorrow.
Detailed strategy:
Only trade within the first four hours of the US stock market open. Determine high and low points based on the 15-minute candlesticks before and after the open. Enter trades on price breakouts: go long on a breakout above the high, go short on a breakout below the low. Place stop losses at the breakout candlestick’s high or low; if the stop loss is too tight, place it at the previous candlestick’s high or low. Use a 1-2 risk-reward ratio.
SPCX has high interest, sufficient liquidity at open, and large volatility, making it a very good candidate for breakout trades. [In-depth Analysis of ZEC Contracts｜Price successfully broke through the key $1253 sell wall (previously a strong resistance overlapping with the average entry of short whales) and swept the liquidation cluster near $1340. The number of short whales dropped from 212 to 124, and position size shrank from 135.7 million to 76.9 million. The current average cost is already below the current price, with an unrealized loss of about $4.7 million—a typical characteristic of shorts passively reducing positions after being trapped. Smart money quickly flipped to 78% long, while retail traders are only 39% long, showing a clear divergence. Historically, this kind of structure where whales lead and retail lags often accompanies an increased probability of further upward liquidity sweeps. There is still about $18.3 million liquidation cluster (10.9M + 7.4M) in the $1442-$1463 range above, becoming the next main target zone, more attractive than the $1110-$1184 cluster below. Key observation: If the price falls back below the short whales' cost line, the current bullish narrative will be significantly weakened, and a retest of lower support may occur. The current price is around $1330; watch whether it can hold and attempt to test the $1440+ area.] #Securitize launches 12 on-chain US stocks
The boss has something to say
Shorted Bitcoin at 84,000, sold at 82,800, pocketing a 1,200-point profit.
The logic behind this short position is straightforward. 84,000 is the upper edge of the previous dense chip area, ETFs have had net outflows of $731 million over two consecutive days, 30-year US Treasury yields at 5.7%, oil prices high, macro pressure remains. The rally is just an opportunity to short. The target is set at 82,800, the lower edge of the previous support area; exit once reached, no greed.
Still holding a long at 83,000 and a short at 86,500, hedging both sides. The 83,000 long is currently at a floating loss, but the position is light; hold as long as the stop loss at 81,500 is not broken. The 86,500 short is still active, target between 84,500 and 85,000. The three positions have different directions but share the same logic, trading high and low within the range.
Next, watch the CPI. Before the data release, Bitcoin will likely fluctuate between 82,000 and 85,000. There is dense resistance above and support near 82,000 below. The short-term strategy remains unchanged: short on rallies, reduce positions at support. Do not chase highs or panic sell lows. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
Control your position size well, set stop losses properly, do not hold through heavy losses.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; positions must have stop losses set. Good luck.$PUMP chips are being accumulated into the hands of a few. The ratio of large funds' holdings relative to retail investors rose from 2.988 to 3.014, meaning the portion that retail investors let go is being picked up by someone. Current price is 0.005643, moving only +0.45% in 24 hours, still 17% below the 90-day high. All the volume sold has been absorbed, and the price is holding very steadily. Despite such a deep pullback, there are still buyers willing to spend money to take it; this setup looks very comfortable to me. I am bullish on $PUMP for the next 24 hours, expecting the base to lift upward, with pullbacks shallower than the rises.$RSR is not recommended to short now, brothers. The daily trading volume of this coin was too low in the early stage, and it pumped too fast. The manipulator hasn't really profited much yet, just a simple pullback that killed a small wave of longs. The shorts haven't been eaten much at all. With so much effort, they still need to eat two more waves of shorts. It's expected to be like the previous "soon"—it will have to pump for another one to two days, or at least consolidate sideways for two days to absorb fees.84,276, the first attempt to break through was blocked. At noon, $BTC shot straight up to 84,276, but couldn’t hold and pulled back. Some are already calling it a "fakeout." #CPI and PPI announcements are imminent, and interest rate hike expectations face a test. Don't rush yet. The 84,000 level is holding down all last week's trapped positions; it's normal to be blocked on the first try—kicking it open on the first attempt would be unrealistic. The real test is below: can it hold near 83,000 on the pullback? If it holds, that’s a buildup—there’s still a row of short orders above 84,700, which will fuel the next move; if it doesn’t hold, that’s a false breakout, and you should exit. I’m currently +25% from my entry in the pit, with my stop loss set at cost. So I’m not guessing, just watching it move—tonight will tell. Do you think it can break through 84,000 this time? Let’s discuss in the comments. Risk reminder: personal live trading record, not investment advice, leverage risk is very high, please do not copy trades.$7 to $100M Challenge 🚀 | Day 52
Starting capital: $7
Current balance: $3,750
Living expenses: $2,950
Available funds: $800+
Ran 5 km yesterday and felt amazing. Now I’m adding squats, glute bridges, and push-ups to the routine. Your body is your personal server — keep upgrading it to survive the bull market!
But the financial side is getting tougher. On Day 35, I had $1,900 available. Now I’m down to just $800. With daily expenses around $60, that gives me roughly 13 days. For long-term large positions (core positions):
1. Don't miss the main upward wave; it remains the primary goal now. The lowest price is not the primary goal.
2. Not adding any on-exchange leverage is the first risk control; off-exchange leverage can be added.
3. Going all-in in the bottom area is the first strategy. Don't fantasize about optimizing your cost after entering the bull market; that's as hard as climbing to the sky. The first all-in should at least constitute 90% of your profit $DOS remains above MA10 and MA20 despite cooling from $0.3038. A higher low around the current area would keep the intraday climb alive.
Long entry: $0.284–$0.288
SL: $0.2775
TP1: $0.2953
TP2: $0.3000
TP3: $0.3038
Support: $0.2783
Resistance: $0.2953
Educational only not financial advice.
#CPIPPIHikeWatch #RussiaUkraineTruceWatch #TSMCOct15Earnings Folks, Trump is out again stirring the pot.
He said Russia and Ukraine reached an "energy ceasefire," stopping attacks on each other's energy facilities, effective immediately. But if you look at the actual situation, Zelensky says Russia must comply first, and Russia hasn't officially confirmed it yet. Even more contradictory, after announcing the ceasefire, Russia continued attacking Ukraine's energy facilities. We've seen this script too many times: talk ceasefire, but no follow-through in action.
Meanwhile, the Middle East isn't idle either. Houthi forces attacked a Saudi airport, and over the weekend, oil tankers were attacked again in the Strait of Hormuz. The risks to energy transportation remain fully intact.
To put it plainly, the global energy lifeline is still tight, oil prices won't come down, and inflation hangs over us. CPI and PPI data are coming next week, and if energy prices push inflation higher, expectations for Fed rate hikes will heat up again, pushing U.S. Treasury yields above 5.5%. Bitcoin is hovering near 83,000, basically being held back by this rope.
As for trading, stick to the usual rules. Geopolitical news changes daily, so don't blindly bet on one side. Hold your low-position chips steady, and if you're out of position, wait for next week's inflation data to drop, then gradually buy in once the direction is clear. Save your ammo; don't get shaken out during volatility. What do you all think? Let's discuss in the comments. $CL $#TSMC Q3 Revenue Hits New High, What Other Highlights to Watch in the October 15 Earnings Report? 🔥
Brothers, the semiconductor sector is at a critical moment again! $SNDK
TSMC's third-quarter revenue has already reached a new high, but what really impacts the stock price are the upcoming profits and future outlook. $MU
Focus on these 4 points:
1️⃣ Can net profit beat expectations?
Good revenue is just the first step; the key is how much profit is ultimately made.
2️⃣ How long can AI demand sustain?
Demand for advanced chips from companies like Nvidia remains a major growth driver for TSMC, so pay close attention to follow-up orders and capacity.
3️⃣ Will Q4 performance be even stronger?
If TSMC raises its performance forecast, it could continue to boost market confidence; if it falls short, be cautious of the positive sentiment being priced in.
4️⃣ Is there an improvement in profit margins?
Expansion and advanced process technology require huge investments; whether revenue growth can translate into more profit is equally important.
Summary:
This time, don’t just focus on record-high revenue; pay more attention to profits and future guidance!
Good performance doesn’t necessarily mean the stock price will rise; if the market has already priced it in early, the stock might spike then pull back after the earnings release.
On October 15, the key is whether performance beats expectations and if the stock price can gain volume and strength!
#CPI and PPI announcements are imminent, and interest rate hike expectations face a test Brothers, this isn't how you hold a position, right?
Although I think $NEAR and $STRK are being hyped up by forced anti-quantum narratives without technical or product validation, and I don't recommend chasing the highs, I also strongly advise against shorting against the wind.
Right now is the peak of the hype; $NEAR's RSI is 74.6 and heating up, the technicals keep hitting new highs, and even the leveraged positions have maxed out with $159 million in open interest. Shorting against the trend is basically like dancing on a tightrope.
Don't underestimate the power of web3 hype; every short squeeze teaches impatient brothers a lesson. If it weren't for everyone's crazy enthusiasm for the hype, which even made me start doubting my own judgment, I wouldn't have dreamed the day before yesterday about missing out and breaking my leg 😂
That's why I said after careful consideration the day before yesterday, I won't buy into a narrative I don't understand and have decided to stay away from it. Long and Short Crowding List｜Last 15 Minutes
$RSR price drops with negative funding rate accompanied by increased positions. Price -1.31%, position volume +3.69%; current funding rate -0.5955% (2-hour cycle).
$S continues to rise and increase positions under negative funding rate. Price +0.1%, position volume +9.05%; current funding rate -0.0153% (4-hour cycle).炸裂！$OPG 这波空单简直踩在多头坟头上，0.1537精准开空，20倍杠杆直接爆赚+211.84%！这位置就是前期反弹的密集压力区，套牢盘叠加获利盘，多头往上冲直接撞墙，承接彻底断层。
信号面上，从0.1537砸到0.13742，价格阶梯式下滑，反抽软绵绵，低点不断破，卖压持续碾压。盘面不是弱，是多头节奏完全断裂，空头牢牢控盘。
操作面上，现在核心就是守利润！防守提到0.145-0.148区间，0.137附近破位可继续看延续；若放量拉回0.1537开仓区，结构直接废，认错撤。20倍浮盈虽厚，别让一根插针全吞，移动止盈锁死！$STRK $ZEC #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 $SNDK 永续75倍空单，1591.3开，现1479.8，浮盈+525.51%。
思路很朴素：顶部横盘缩量到极致，波动率压到地板，说明筹码准备派发。一根放量阴线直接把价格从 1591.3 砸下来，典型的破位信号，追空不追多。75倍杠杆，止损 1650。走势一路向下，不给任何舒服的下车位，盈利直接起飞。
这位置我打算先减一半仓位落袋，剩下的一半止损提到 1500 让利润跑。1450 能放量跌破就继续拿，跌不破就全平走人。$BTC $ETH #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 $BTC 剧本落地，这波拉升果然就是诱多陷阱。
早上帖子就讲清楚，80351上来的反弹只是CPI前的预期抢跑修复，不是趋势反转。缩量拉涨，没有增量资金接力，84500-85000压力摆在那里，主力就是借反弹制造止跌假象，引诱散户追多开合约。
现在行情直接砸下来，追高的多头已经被收割。
很多人看见上涨就喊牛回，把短期反弹当成反转，忽略了宏观数据的不确定性。通胀一旦超预期，加息预期抬升，这波假拉升随时会崩盘，今天已经验证。
接下来重点观察下方支撑，不要急着抄底。数据行情波动凶残，杠杆仓位务必谨慎，别被盘面短暂的阳线带偏判断。
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 $SNDK
下一次的危机，很有可能就爆发在存储上。为什么这么说？本身电脑这个东西，就不是快消品，又不是今天买了明天就坏的。保养的好。用个8-10年没问题，但是产能没有停下来，卖给谁？市场就这么大，能生产的就那么几家，互相通一气，涨价很容易。所以在非必要情况下能不换就不换，将就着用！
回归正题，目前闪迪在日线级别。能清晰的看到1826.2压力很大，前几篇贴子也有提到，下方1399.5支撑也很强，多次探底均反弹，等于说区间有400点。30%不到。很客观，那么去做15分钟-4小时的振幅还是很容易的，就是需要时间等待 $ETH 2500.86干100倍多时手抖，亏了爆仓命。结果2529.06，浮盈112.76%，吃1.1倍纯运气。
百倍拿1.1倍是鬼门关，高位震荡背发凉。大部落袋，余仓保本。2529撑2580阻，追高不陪。
$BTC $ZEC
盘面看，急拉后震荡难免，2529支撑关键，破则深调。老天赏饭得接，别贪，主线已饱。#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 $BTC total liquidation across the entire network in 24 hours is 310 million, with over 80,000 people liquidated. It is clearly visible that long positions liquidated amount to 160 million, short positions 150 million, both sides are taking heavy hits.
Especially in the last hour, long position liquidations reached 35.707 million, far exceeding short position liquidations of 4.074 million, indicating a rapid short-term decline where many longs chasing highs were harvested.
In the 4-hour and 12-hour periods, long position liquidations are also higher. This market movement is a back-and-forth tug, a two-way shakeout, making chasing orders very risky. The largest single liquidation was a BTC position worth 4.883 million. #俄乌或达成“能源停火”协议，进展待确认
俄乌能源停火这事，听着是利好，但细节全是问号。
特朗普10月11日宣布双方同意停止袭击能源设施，立即生效，但没公布具体协议内容。泽连斯基说支持，前提是俄罗斯同样遵守，还在等美方提供具体安排。俄罗斯至今没正式确认。更打脸的是，乌方说特朗普宣布停火后，俄罗斯仍对乌克兰能源设施发动了袭击。
与此同时，中东那边也没消停。胡塞武装宣称袭击沙特机场，霍尔木兹海峡周末再现油轮遇袭。两条能源线同时在冒烟。
市场反应很直接。布伦特和WTI都涨了2%左右，因为停火预期落空，风险溢价重新回来。这说明市场根本没信这个停火，油价用脚投票。
对BTC来说，短期是压力。油价反弹，通胀预期就压不住，美联储加息的紧迫性就还在。美债收益率5%以上，无息资产机会成本太高。BTC在8.2万附近震荡，上方83500到84500是阻力，下方81500到82000是支撑。油价不回落，反弹就受限。
但换个角度看，地缘风险反复折腾，法币信用的消耗反而在加速。能源供应的不确定性持续存在，最后要么通胀稀释，要么变相宽松。BTC作为非主权硬资产，吃的是这口饭。$BZ $CL Honestly, there are two pieces of news this week that I think everyone should pay close attention to. One concerns how the Federal Reserve will adjust interest rates next, and the other concerns whether the AI sector's momentum can continue. They seem like two separate issues, but both could impact BTC and the entire risk asset market.🤔 📌 First, the US September CPI data The market is watching closely to see if US inflation is truly cooling down. If the CPI is lower than expected, the market might raise expectations for looser monetary policy, providing some support to BTC and other risk assets. But if inflation again exceeds expectations, the situation changes. US Treasury yields could rise, the dollar could strengthen, and BTC may face short-term pressure. However, one thing to note: good data doesn't necessarily mean a rise; the key is how the actual result compares to market expectations. 📌 Second, TSMC's earnings report This time, I think we shouldn't just focus on revenue and profit, but pay more attention to future capital expenditures and AI chip demand. Why? Because TSMC is a crucial part of the global semiconductor supply chain. If AI-related demand remains strong, it could improve sentiment in the tech stock market. Conversely, if future investment plans fall short of expectations, it could trigger market concerns about growth in the AI industry. 💡 My view: These two events, one affects the market's judgment on interest rates and liquidity, the other affects growth expectations in the tech sector. For BTC, although there is no inevitable correlation with price rises or falls, both are worth watching. Especially around the data release, changes in market expectations could lead to increased short-term volatility $ETH Tonight's sharp consecutive drop was very rapid, crashing straight down to the previous low. On the 15-minute chart, several candlesticks fell continuously, with the short-term EMA turning downward and pressing down. The price broke below the short-term moving averages, staying entirely below them, which looked quite precarious at the time.
However, looking at the larger timeframe, the price just touched the moving averages. The 4-hour EMA20 is around 2530, with the recent candles turning upward. Meanwhile, the 1-hour EMA50 also lies in this area, with the two moving averages from different timeframes overlapping.
The recent candlestick stopped at this dense moving average zone, and the downtrend slowed here. Although the 15-minute moving averages are pressing from above, the larger timeframe moving averages are supporting from below. The bears hit the recent low but the close did not break below it, and the following candlesticks even formed lower shadows.
There is strong support at the larger timeframe level, so overall I still expect stabilization and a rebound. The 4-hour EMA20 is still rising, and the upward structure remains intact. After digesting this correction, the market will most likely test around 2570 again.
$BTC $SOL #CPI and PPI announcements are imminent, testing rate hike expectations #Russia-Ukraine may reach an "energy ceasefire" agreement, progress pending confirmation #TSMC Q3 revenue hits record high, what other highlights to watch in the October 15 earnings report? $ZEC 50倍多，1237.38→1283.86，浮盈187.81%。急拉后高位震荡，回撤概率骤升，盈亏比劣化。
执行：大部减仓，余仓止损推成本。不追多，1283支撑，1320阻力，底仓博弈主仓兑现。浮盈非钱，落袋方安。
$BTC $ETH
行情：末端震荡筹码松动，1283-1320区间震荡，量能缩需防深回踩。横盘即磨损，风控纪律至上。#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验