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Both chambers lost, Trump still has one trump card: the veto power.
The Democrats hold 54 seats in the Senate and have confirmed 240 seats in the House; overturning a veto requires 67 and 290 seats respectively, which is far off. "No cooperation means total veto" is a bargaining chip, not just empty talk.
But budgets, appropriations, and personnel all have to pass through Congress. You veto me, I block you, leaving only shutdown or negotiation. With only two years left until 2028, no one can afford a shutdown. I judge compromise is highly likely.
Crypto community, don’t wait for CLARITY; TD Cowen says no chance for two years.
Do you think they will negotiate first, or shut down first? Garcia, expected to take office as chair of the House Oversight Committee in January next year, has already warned Trump's family to "go hire lawyers"; Warren, who is very likely to take over the Senate Banking Committee, has repeatedly publicly called WLFI transactions corrupt. The main issue is that WLFI and TRUMP are indeed not clean: 1. The UAE invested $500 million to buy WLFI shares, with the money flowing directly to Trump's family. Subsequently, the US government approved the sale of advBefore the decision night announcement, let me first review these four risks
BTC liquidations reached 266 million with short positions accounting for 93.4%, but all four coins' 1-hour positions have flipped positive. The decision night hasn't been announced yet, but the shorts have already been squeezed once. 😶
It's evening now, the Bank of England's decision will land tonight, followed by the US initial jobless claims. The vote expectation is 7-2 to raise to 4.00%, and initial claims are expected at 197,000. Let me first spread out my positions to take a look.
Who's entering the market?
Short-term positions have all flipped positive: ZEC up 1.60% leading the pack, SOL up 0.63%, ETH up 0.28%, BTC only up 0.03%, the feeling is more of covering shorts than new money coming in. 📋
Who's getting squeezed?
In the last 24 hours, 706 million was liquidated, with shorts accounting for 64.9%, 99,591 people got wiped out. Of BTC's 266 million, 93% was on the short side; for ETH's 196 million, shorts accounted for 57.8%.
Where is the danger?
Prices are grinding at high levels: BTC hovering around 80,493, ETH at 2,419, SOL hasn't hit 100 yet, ZEC at 1,325. The rate hike expectation is already priced in about 90%, the real variable is if the vote doesn't match 7-2. Bulls vs bears are basically even at 49.4 to 50.6.
What am I doing now?
Positions remain unchanged, waiting for the decision to land before adjusting. If the vote matches expectations, I'll proceed as planned; if initial claims deviate too much from 197,000, I'll take action. 🔒
In the end, the decision night isn't about who is braver, but whose positions survive until dawn. Only those who survive have the right to talk about the next trade. I've already acknowledged this checklist.The Bank of England's rate decision is at 8 PM tonight, with the market fully pricing in a rate hike. The UK September CPI is 3.5%, up from 3.1% in August, mainly driven by oil prices. The rate is expected to rise from 3.75% to 4%, marking the first hike in this cycle.
In September, the vote was 6 to 3 to hold, with three members wanting to hike then. Goldman Sachs expects a 7 to 2 vote this time, with two dissenting votes favoring no change. Bailey previously said they can't wait until the second-round effects of wages and prices are confirmed before acting.
What happens after the hike is the key point. The money market is pricing in several more hikes next year, though many economists think that's too aggressive. The mainstream view is one more hike in February to cap at 4.25%. MUFG shares this view, reasoning that the UK economy is too strong to ignore the energy shock. This is a quarterly forecast meeting; Goldman Sachs estimates the new forecast will place the inflation peak in the first half of 2027, surpassing 4%.
The Fed is in a similar position. FedWatch gives an 81.2% probability of a 25 basis point hike in December. Tomorrow night at 9:30 PM, the October nonfarm payrolls will be released, expected to increase by only about 60,000, with an unemployment rate of 4.2%. ADP earlier reported 86,000.
The suspense lies in the vote split and Bailey's tone. A 7 to 2 vote with vague guidance will likely cause the pound to spike then retreat, short-term gilt yields to rebound, and the market to price back some of next year's hikes; if the new forecast shows an inflation peak clearly above 4%, the idea of capping in February won't hold. As long as nonfarm payrolls exceed 100,000, the 81% probability won't drop. $QQQ $TSLA $AAPL #非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ Seeing "banks being hacked, money converted into cryptocurrency," my first reaction isn't how skilled the hackers are, but how exactly the money was turned into crypto.
The report casually states: exchanged through a specialized platform. But why would a legitimate platform accept a transfer of over a hundred million euros? Either the transactions were split into layers, or someone turned a blind eye. The bank says it intercepted part of it and that customer funds were not lost—so what about the rest? Who is footing the bill for that?
The most ironic thing is that traditional banks preach risk control every day, yet the last line of defense is built at the deposit and withdrawal points. The $BTC price remains unchanged; the whole story happens off-chain.Seeing "banks being hacked, money converted into cryptocurrency," my first reaction isn't how skilled the hackers are, but how exactly the money was turned into crypto.
The report casually states: exchanged through a specialized platform. But why would a legitimate platform accept a transfer of over a hundred million euros? Either the transactions were split into layers, or someone turned a blind eye. The bank says it intercepted part of it and that customer funds were not lost—so what about the rest? Who is footing the bill for that?
The most ironic thing is that traditional banks preach risk control every day, yet the last line of defense is built at the deposit and withdrawal points. The $BTC price remains unchanged; the whole story happens off-chain.#Nonfarm payrolls are imminent, can the employment data strengthen the December rate hike expectations? The October employment report at 9:30 PM on Friday is the last decent labor data before the December 9th FOMC meeting. The market currently expects an increase of 65,000 jobs, an unchanged unemployment rate of 4.2%, and a year-over-year hourly wage growth of 2.9%. The pricing for a December rate hike is already between 78% and 80%—all three markets point to the same answer, with no intention of leaving room for doubt. Let me be clear: this 65,000 threshold is suspiciously low. September only added 29,000 jobs, a weak reading that requires explanation. Raising the midpoint back to just over 60,000 in two months is not an impressive achievement. What I care about is not the total number but the wage column: the month-over-month hourly wage expectation rising from 0.1% back to 0.3%. If the figure reaches 0.3%, the market will take it as a full endorsement that "wages are not out of control"; if it really hits 0.4%, the December rate hike will be indisputable. The only scenario that could reverse this is if the total number falls back below 35,000, which would for the first time put the "no hike" option back on the table. There is a counterintuitive point here. This week of midterm elections, crude oil dropped nearly 8% in one day, the dollar fell to its lowest since late September, and the 10-year yield retreated to around 4.86%—by old experience, this combination should push down rate hike expectations. But the bond market is unconvinced, pricing remains almost unchanged. The reason is straightforward: the report hasn't been released yet, and no one wants to make the first move. On the policy ledger, the arrival of votes only pushes Washington into a deadlock; deadlock does not equal easing, and inflation has not returned to A French bank's account was hacked, the money was transferred to another bank, and then exchanged for cryptocurrency through a specialized platform. The most striking part of the report is not the method, but that this route has become so smooth it needs no explanation—account, interbank transfer, exchange platform, three steps completed, and the money disappears from the ledger.
The figures are currently unclear. French sources say over 100 million euros were transferred, but the bank does not confirm and only says the amount is still being assessed; meanwhile, it claims to have intercepted some funds and is pursuing the rest, with no loss to customer funds. The Paris prosecutor's office has launched a formal investigation, and the matter will not stop at the bank's PR statements.
The mechanism deserves analysis. Interbank transfers have a clearing window, which is slow but can be intercepted; once it lands on the blockchain, whether $BTC, $ETH, or stablecoins, the recovery logic shifts from "freezing accounts" to "seeking exchange cooperation," which is a completely different scale. The key phrase in the material is "specialized platform"—this is not a spur-of-the-moment action, but a ready channel waiting for this kind of money.
So the signal is not how big 100 million euros is, but that the "bank account to crypto asset" route has been opened again. Risk control is stacked at the account level, compliance is stacked at the deposit and withdrawal level, and the middle segment is precisely the most empty.
One question remains: the bank says customer funds were not lost, so for the portion intercepted but still unrecovered, who ultimately bears the loss? If the answer is all token holders—with stricter KYC, slower withdrawals, more address tagging—then this loss is actually shared across the entire industry.Tomorrow night at 21:30, the US October nonfarm payroll data will be released. Let me briefly share my thoughts.
The market expects an increase of 65,000 jobs, with the previous value at 29,000, and the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.2%. Earlier ADP data recorded 86,000, higher than market expectations, which indirectly reflects that the current employment environment has not shown obvious signs of weakening.
Background worth noting for this data: During previous interest rate meetings, there were internal differences of opinion, with some officials expressing hawkish views. At this stage, market speculation about subsequent policy adjustments has already heated up.
If employment and wage-related data strengthen again this time, it is highly likely to further boost hawkish market sentiment, causing disturbances to major risk assets and precious metals.
My personal view: The data may show moderate recovery, but this alone may not directly change the expectations already formed in the market at this stage.
🎯 Therefore, my focus this time is not on the final numbers themselves, but rather: if the data significantly exceeds expectations, whether various assets can withstand this round of emotional impact.
Many people tend to overlook one point: related speculation has already been priced in by the market in advance. What truly causes large fluctuations is data that exceeds expectations again, reigniting concerns about an inflation rebound.
The data is just the fuse; the choice of funds in the market is the signal worth continuously observing afterward. #AAOI高速光模块放量，Q3财报能否超预期？ $ETH $BTC $ZEC In the previous cycle, I always had a sense of familiarity with news like "corporate financing to buy coins": once the funding channel moves, the market tends to factor in the subsequent buy orders in advance. Now I remind myself that there is still a step between financing and buying.
According to Bitcoin Treasuries, Strategy's Stretch (STRC) resumed related issuance after more than 170 days, and the fundraising yesterday is estimated to be enough to purchase over 120 Bitcoins. This refers to purchasing power, not actual $BTC bought, so don't confuse the two.
This time, unlike the simple narrative of just calling to buy coins, there is a fundraising result. I see it as a positive signal in the corporate coin-holding financing chain, but it is not yet evidence of an accelerated cycle: the channel resuming indicates progress on the funding side, but the scale in a single day cannot prove sustainability, and potential buy orders still need actual coin purchases to be realized. What I will focus on next is whether the financing can continue, rather than getting excited for the market prematurely.The ballots have been cast, and the market's response is the most honest kind: BTC has retraced back to the 200-day moving average, ETH surged 3.8% in one day, and the top gainers list is almost entirely filled with green. Risk assets never wait for good news, but for certainty—now that the control of both chambers is no longer in doubt, money dares to move from the sidelines into the market. What’s truly worth noting is the capital flow in ETH: spot products ended a streak of seven consecutive days of net outflows, with a single-day inflow of $53 million, the largest since September 25; the $1.6 billion withdrawal in October has been paused. At the same time, $21.5 million worth of positions were liquidated within 24 hours, with shorts accounting for $14.35 million. The sequence is clear: money just turned around, and shorts got hit. What I care more about is the quality of this rally. Funding rates are almost at zero, and open interest dropped 5.86% in 24 hours—meaning this rally wasn’t built on leverage but on short covering after position reductions combined with spot buying. In plain terms: no one was forced to add positions during the rise, so there aren’t many liquidation orders queued up during the fall. The price has returned to the on-chain average realized cost line at 2,309; this is the first time in this rally. The cost basis of the chips is here, and anyone selling at this level is at a loss. The second ticket is SOL. Its speed upgrade landed on October 21, ultimately confirmed to have reduced block time from 12.8 seconds to about 150 milliseconds, with the on-chain tokenized asset scale reaching $5.12 billion, a 30-day increase The "pressure release" logic of the election: uncertainty fades > fundamentals improve
The Democrats' sweep of both chambers appears on the surface to be negative for crypto legislation—the prospects for the CLARITY Act in the Senate will become more difficult. However, the market reaction is an increase, due to the "uncertainty itself" dissipating.
CoinShares research director James Butterfill pointed out that Bitcoin had largely priced in the possibility of a Democratic sweep before the election, and with uncertainty easing, the market has room for a pressure-release style rebound. At the same time, expectations for easing US-Iran relations have strengthened, oil prices have dropped sharply, and Treasury yields have declined, further supporting risk appetite.
But the nature of this rebound needs to be accurately defined: it is an "emotional recovery after the known negative has landed," not the "start of new positive momentum." The Democrats' regulatory stance has not changed, and midterm legislative suppression still exists, only temporarily masked by short-term pressure-release sentiment. Statistics from Bitwise analysts also provide a moderating perspective: the new Senate still has about 51 senators supporting crypto, only one fewer than before the election, and Grayscale and BlackRock also believe this outcome will not fundamentally change the long-term trends for stablecoins and institutional investment. $BTC $ZEC $ETH #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 Don't be fooled by contracts: ETF cards reveal divergence
The fierce contract rally last night doesn't mean big money is buying up. After looking at the spot ETF data, it's even clearer: contracts reflect sentiment, spot is the real money.
$BTC endured four days of outflows, finally seeing a slight net inflow of $9.63 million yesterday, but internally it's inconsistent—IBIT outflowed nearly $26 million, while FBTC inflowed $30 million to offset. This shows some institutions are tentatively taking positions, while old money is retreating on the rebound, with clear divergence.
$ETH shows a slight net inflow of 23,300 on the surface, but ETHA had nearly $100 million outflow in a single day, with Grayscale buying in and BlackRock selling out. The rebound smells strongly of distribution at highs; this rally may not last long.
The clearest is $SOL: all data points are zero. A few days ago it was still seeing daily outflows, now institutions don't even bother to act, leaving retail traders in contracts self-excited, lacking big money support.
So, don't just look at whether the candlesticks are strong. BTC ETF has stopped falling, but institutional opinions are not unified; ETH shows signs of distribution; SOL looks even quieter. Can BTC firmly hold 80,000 this time? Are you holding long or short positions now?
#非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ In the previous full hour, the price dropped 17.70%, with trading volume increasing by 103.38% compared to the previous period, but it still closed up 1.94% over the past 4 hours. In the OKX 10:28 (UTC) snapshot, $AKE perpetual contract was quoted at 0.002499 USDT, down 14.42% in 24 hours, ranging between 0.00208 and 0.00351 USDT; the trading volume for the last 24 full hours was approximately 95.0222 million USDT.
The current open interest (OI) is about 1.271 billion AKE, equivalent to approximately 3.1815 million USD, with a funding rate of -1.0000%. The sharp hourly drop and doubled trading volume indicate intensified selling pressure and leverage conflict; however, the current price has returned above the previous full hour’s close at 0.00219 USDT, and it has not turned down in the last 4 hours, so the trend cannot be judged as unidirectionally continuing based solely on this sharp drop candlestick. The OI snapshot cannot identify net long or short positions, and a negative funding rate does not necessarily prove a rebound will occur.
OKX does not have AKE spot trading, lacking spot cross-confirmation. If the full hour continues to break below 0.00208 USDT with sustained volume, be cautious of further accelerated downside; only a volume-backed recovery above 0.00277 USDT, along with a converging funding rate and controlled OI expansion, can provide a stable structural basis.
* NFA, DYOR$SNDK
Micron has halted the $4.5 billion storage plant in Taoyuan, citing labor disputes. With one less capacity on the supply side, according to the old logic, this supports storage prices.
Before the market opened, the US storage chain still fell, SK Hynix down 4 points, Qualcomm down 9 points. On OKX, the SNDK token is at 1011.5, down 12% from 1148 in 24 hours.
At 9 AM, there was a 1-hour sell-off of 101,800 contracts, dropping to 990.8. Then for nine hours it hovered between 995 and 1028, with the latest volume down to only 13,600 contracts.
The fee rate is 0.0704%, seven times the benchmark. After dropping 12%, the bulls are still holding on at a loss, not selling a single contract. Open interest is 146,000 contracts, 147 million, 2,000 contracts more than in the afternoon.
Whether the plant restarts or not is a matter for next year; today's price reflects inventory and orders, not capacity planning. Wait for spot price movements, not press releases.
#非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ Those who watch the market late at night understand this feeling best: it's not that you don't want to sleep, but the numbers in your wallet keep you awake. A long-term holder of $CORE recently revealed that what truly made him seriously consider exiting for the first time was not the price dropping again, but Bithumb suddenly stopping trading support for $CORE — this kind of "physical withdrawal" from a trading channel pierces faith more than candlestick charts. This news is worth making everyone who still holds a "wait and see" attitude stop and think. Over the past two or three years, the daily routine of $CORE holders has been like this: opening their wallets every day to see if the amount has increased, now also checking market software to see if there are new exchange announcements. From expectation to disappointment, from adding positions to hesitation, emotions pile up layer by layer, and what often breaks patience in the end is not the loss itself, but the narrowing of liquidity entrances one after another. Bithumb's move is the latest and most glaring link in this chain of withdrawals. What the market tends to underestimate is that delisting or suspension of support by exchanges is never an isolated event, but a dual signal of capital flow and narrative control. When an asset on a chain cannot even maintain trading pairs on mainstream Korean platforms, market depth, arbitrage paths, and new buying interest all shrink simultaneously, the price discovery mechanism weakens, leaving only existing chips consuming each other internally. This is not bearish talk but a structural issue — when liquidity recedes, the first thing to disappear is not the price, but the exit channels. Conversely, this also explains why $BTC $ETH $SOL continue to attract attention: it's not that theyAn on-chain record is more straightforward than a research report: a certain address closed a $56.6 million CL long position on Hyperliquid, incurring a loss of $5.82 million. Note, this is not cryptocurrency, but crude oil.
What’s more notable is that it didn’t exit. The same address still holds a $95.7 million leveraged Brent crude oil long position, with an unrealized loss of $7.06 million. The first liquidation didn’t make it exit, it just cut one leg.
Combining the two, the address’s lifetime PnL on Hyperliquid slid from a profit of $18,400 to a loss of $13.79 million. This scale no longer looks like retail trial and error.
The mechanism is not hard to understand: on-chain perpetuals have no price limits or circuit breakers; if margin is insufficient, execution happens directly at the price. The buffering mechanisms available in traditional commodity futures are realized all at once on the balance here. Crude oil and Brent are both on-chain, allowing the same macro view to be doubled down on by the same wallet.
My judgment is that the existence of such positions is more important than the losses themselves. It shows that the on-chain perpetuals’ balance sheet can already accommodate commodity leverage. $HYPE captures the flow and fees, and venues hosting $BTC and $ETH will also have to absorb cross-market sentiment.
One question remains: when crude oil views can be directly expressed via on-chain perpetuals and leverage is not constrained by circuit breakers, will the next price shock first appear on the order book or in the liquidation records of some wallet?$TRUMP TRUMP this market is interesting now. The spot market has long been tightly locked, with a pitifully small circulating supply.
But the futures market is lively, with nearly 300 short whales stubbornly holding short positions worth over 14 million USD, with an average cost stuck around 1.83.
There is basically no selling pressure in the spot market, so the market makers can even save the money for pumping the price.
As long as the price is slightly pushed up to 1.83, the buy orders from these shorts closing their positions can directly send the market soaring, purely subsidizing the fuel.
#TRUMP
$TRUMP
👇BTC's current bear market began on October 6, 2025, at its historical peak and has lasted 396 days as of this writing, slightly exceeding the average 391 days needed to bottom out bear markets since 2014. In terms of historical retracement magnitude, the 2014 bear market saw a maximum drop of about 86%, 2018 about 84%, 2022 about 77%, while the current retracement is about 53%, relatively mild. With the increase of spot ETFs, enterprises, and institutional participants such as funds, the market's position structure may become more stable, thereby reducing the extent of declines. BTC whales have been continuously accumulating since July. However, reaching the historical average cycle duration does not mean the bear market is over; BTC still needs to reclaim and maintain the $80,000 to $82,000 range to further confirm market trends. Meanwhile, recent declines in U.S. tech stocks and semiconductor sectors, capital shifts to bank stocks, as well as the Dow Jones rising and oil prices falling after the U.S. midterm elections, are taken as the backdrop, suggesting current Wall Street capital flows are unclear, and BTC may be at the tail end of the bear market cycle. #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $BTC 专注于隐私的以太坊二层网络 Aztec 已推出 Tierra 升级，引入新的 rollup，显著提升了 Aztec 与以太坊之间的消息传递速度。然而，此次升级要求现有合约重新编译，并将产生新的合约地址，这意味着开发者必须采取行动进行迁移。为缓解过渡压力，Aztec 为 V5 用户提供约 30 天的资金支持迁移服务。 Tierra 升级是 Aztec 路线图上的重要一步，旨在为以太坊带来可扩展的隐私保护。通过增强跨链消息传递，该网络旨在降低资产和数据在 Aztec 与以太坊主网之间转移的延迟，这对于 DeFi 的可组合性和用户体验至关重要。 行业分析与影响 此次升级凸显了构建先进二层解决方案所面临的挑战与机遇。虽然更快的消息传递可以解锁新的用例——例如近乎即时的跨链交换和更灵敏的隐私保护应用——但合约重新编译的需求给开发者和用户带来了摩擦。这是快速发展的 L2 领域中常见的权衡，协议升级往往需要进行破坏性更改以提升性能和安全性。 Aztec 决定为 V5 提供资金支持迁移，是一种务实的举措，旨在留住开发者社区并确保连续性。这也凸显了 L2 之间的竞争压力，不仅要创新，还要提供强大的开发者CARDS has already stirred up expectations.
Trading hasn't started yet, but the sentiment is already running ahead.
I'm standing aside: this pricing wave is hope, not realization.
Coinbase has put Collector Crypt's CARDS on its listing roadmap.
Note, it's a roadmap.
Not already listed.
No opening date given either.
If trading really opens, it still needs market-making support and technical infrastructure in place, which will be announced separately.
During this gap, the market has already started filling in the price.
OKX spot rose about 13.83% this round.
But what's more striking is the volatility.
Low at 0.2521, high at 0.354.
Relative to the open, volatility is about 39.91%.
Current price 0.2906, not holding the high.
Price went up, but that doesn't mean the news has landed.
Nearly 40% back and forth looks more like an early overdraft of the "possible listing."
CARDS is already traded on multiple CEXs including OKX.
Coinbase is not the first place to buy it.
What it brings is greater exposure.
Not a realized opening.
I don't want to count intention as a direct result.
Do you treat the roadmap as a positive realization, or as an unrealized option?
#OKX星球话题来啦 $CARDS $BTC Rushed up to 81,190 this morning, now at 80,300.
700 points short, didn't touch the 50-day moving average (81,933).
This is the first real resistance encountered in this rebound. Previously, from 76,664 upwards, there was hardly any resistance because short squeezes don't need a reason. But above the 50-day moving average is the cost zone for those who entered in the last two months, where there is real selling pressure.
Also, a figure released this morning: ADP private employment at 86,000, expected 75,000.
Employment is stronger than expected. If tomorrow's non-farm payrolls are similar, expectations for a December rate hike will harden.
The market is now betting on a December rate hike — this is a stone on top of the rebound.
Another risk few mention: Democratic control of both chambers is not friendly to crypto. They were the ones blocking the CLARITY Act before, and now they call the shots.
So my view remains unchanged: this is a correction, not a reversal.
I won't add positions before tomorrow's non-farm payrolls come out. #BTC进入摩根大通长期预测，机构配置仍谨慎 #非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？
My US stock pre-market diary (November 5, 2026): The main forces are dumping SNDK, SpaceX, and SOXL. Should you short or lay low?
Take a look at the pre-market volume leaderboard; don’t be fooled by the "slight dip in the three major indexes." S&P futures only fell 0.06%, but SOXL is down 6.93%, SNDK down 2.93%, and SpaceX down 1.06% pre-market. This isn’t a broad sell-off; someone is specifically dismantling AI hardware stocks.
Breaking it down, the reasons for the sell-off in these three stocks are completely different.
SND’s earnings report showed a 372% surge in revenue last quarter, but the next quarter’s revenue guidance of 10.3–10.8 billion is several billion below the market expectation of 11.148 billion, with gross margin guidance flat quarter-over-quarter and signs of peaking.
Adding to that, Texas has changed hands politically; the Democratic governor advocates pausing new data center construction. Goldman Sachs estimates this will impact about 45% of data center expansion capacity nationwide.
SOXL is a 3x leveraged ETF, dropping from 79 to 62.36, triggering forced liquidations and stop-loss orders concentrated exits.
For SpaceX, Crew-13 was delayed due to oxidizer leakage in the propulsion system, and Democrats are still threatening to review government contracts with Musk’s companies.
Software and platform giants haven’t been hit at all. The capital is violently shifting from the "computing power narrative" to "cash flow certainty," not exiting the market.
Don’t bet on a V-shaped rebound in trading.#CircleQ3 revenue exceeds expectations, USDC on-chain transaction volume grows 49%
The stablecoin business that earns interest—can issuing tokens really change the game?
Circle's latest financial report exceeded expectations, with total revenue of $865 million and EPS of $0.84, far surpassing market expectations. This is a major capital showdown $CRCL
The rate cut cycle has arrived, and the decline in reserve yields dragged interest income down 8% year-over-year to $658 million. The old rental model of earning interest from government bonds passively no longer works; pushing on-chain transaction volume to $13.9 trillion, a 49% increase, still can't offset the yield shrinkage.
The turning point is that the Arc token presale contributed $182 million in just one quarter.
Everyone thinks this is just a desperate cover-up to cash out, but I am optimistic about this strategic shift. If stablecoins only serve as underlying funding channels, the bulk of profits are taken by the channels and exchanges.
Issuing the Arc public chain token is not just riding the hype; it upgrades tenants to landlords, keeping the transaction fees originally given to channels directly in their own pockets.
In the short term, narrowing interest income will still pressure the stock price with volatility. But in the long run, as long as the Arc public chain and CCTP cross-chain protocol ecosystem loop is established, Circle's valuation logic will leap from a fragile financial interest-earning stock to a high-premium foundational infrastructure tech stock.
DYORThe US stock market is currently being supported by just a handful of major companies, particularly the so-called “Magnificent Seven,” while a large number of individual stocks have already suffered significant declines. The crypto market is showing a similar pattern. Bitcoin, Ethereum, $BNB , and $HYPE are providing some stability, while most altcoins continue to struggle, with many looking increasingly weak. Bitcoin and Ethereum have staged a relatively strong rebound from yesterday into todaRecently reviewing the market, I found a commonality: event-driven pulse rallies are increasingly lacking sustainability.
$PEPE is now stuck in a sideways range around 0.000005.
After the selling pressure from the previous theft was released, a single large holder directly scooped up 45.08 billion tokens.
A simple calculation: 45.08 billion tokens × 0.000005 ≈ 2.25 million USD.
This single order of over 2 million USD briefly pushed the price up, but it was just this one order.
The biggest weakness of the market lies here:
The rally depends on a single large buy order; once the funds stop, there is no incremental off-exchange volume to follow up, the heat fades, and the price quickly returns to its original state, resulting in long-term sideways consolidation.
Not only PEPE, two other tokens follow exactly the same script:
$TRUMP remains sideways around 1.58; on voting day, no new funds entered to follow up, and the positive news immediately turned negative.
$UNI has been stuck around 7 USD for a long time. The protocol itself continuously generates revenue and the fundamentals are not bad, but incremental buying has dried up, and no one is willing to actively push the price higher.
Summary:
Events bring short-term emotional rallies, but after the news cools down, there is a lack of long-term buying funds.
Off-exchange funds are now very cautious, they won’t blindly chase hot spots, mostly waiting for volume confirmation or a completely new narrative to emerge before considering entry.
At this stage, do not chase pulse rallies.
Price increases driven by single injections of funds are most prone to sharp pullbacks and trapping.
Wait for sustained volume expansion before judging whether the trend has reversed. #RationalViewOnMarketVolatility #BewareOfShortTermPulseRallies Data shows that currently long positions account for 58.75%, short positions 41.25%, with a long-short ratio of 1.42. During the previous rally phase, the proportion of long accounts surged rapidly, and the long-short ratio once rose sharply, fully igniting retail investors' enthusiasm for going long.
Recently, the long-short ratio has noticeably declined, indicating that some long accounts have actively closed positions and exited, cooling down the market's bullish sentiment, but the proportion of long accounts still holds the upper hand.
This structure warrants caution, as the retail long proportion is relatively high, indicating a crowded long position state. If the price struggles to move upward, it can easily trigger a pullback to shake out short-term trend-following long positions.
#非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ $BTC $ETH $ZEC $ARB
Arbitrum's biggest opportunity goes beyond being another Ethereum scaling solution. Its broader ecosystem gives developers infrastructure for building applications with different requirements. But competition among Layer-2 networks keeps increasing. Ecosystem expansion matters, yet sustainable growth requires active users, meaningful transaction demand, and applications that attract people without relying entirely on incentives.The wallet declaration measures have been temporarily shelved, and this detail gives me a bit of a familiar feeling from the previous round: when seeing news of regulatory easing, it's easy to first think positively. This time in France, the budget revenue part was rejected, so the stablecoin tax and wallet declaration measures were shelved accordingly, but the related provisions may still be reintroduced through Senate amendments.
What needs to be distinguished this time is that the shelving comes from budget obstruction, not a specific rejection of crypto measures. I prefer to see it as a pause in the regulatory process rather than a signal of an industry shift. For users who might be affected by declaration requirements, there is currently less urgency, but it cannot yet be concluded that declarations will no longer be required in the future.
Viewed in the cycle, I think this news has more impact on sentiment than on long-term rules. If the provisions reappear, then the current relaxed interpretation will need to be revised. I will keep an eye on subsequent provisions and am not in a hurry to label this as "regulatory easing."Since early October, the overall position focus has been continuously rising, and despite several rounds of pullbacks, there has been no large-scale capital exit, indicating that funds are continuously entering and positioning.
During the recent surge phase, positions quickly spiked, then slightly retreated after the peak. The current price corresponds to a position of 33,500 BTC, with a nominal value of 2.7 billion USDT.
This signal indicates that market leveraged funds have been continuously increasing their positions during this rebound, representing a strong structure of rising price and increasing positions. However, it is important to note that the pullback after the position spike means some short-term funds have chosen to take profits and exit.
Key focus going forward: If the price continues to rise and positions increase simultaneously, the bullish momentum can continue; but if the price weakens while positions remain high, it can easily trigger concentrated liquidations.
#非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ $BTC $ETH $ZEC #NebiusAI cloud business rapid growth faces earnings test
The leader has something to say
I view this news in the context of this week's bigger picture: Nebius will release its Q3 earnings before the market opens on November 12, a major test for the AI cloud sector. In Q2, the group revenue was $582 million, a year-over-year surge of 454%, with AI cloud revenue at $575 million, accounting for 98%, which is indeed impressive; but the community's doubts are also sharp—quarterly capital expenditure was about $5.657 billion, far exceeding revenue, EBITDA just turned positive, essentially burning cash to gain scale, and the high-yield bond market has already started closing doors to AI cloud providers.
My interpretation is: NBIS's earnings report is not a direct driver for the crypto market but acts as an emotional amplifier. The B200 spot price doubled within seven days, and new capacity was fully booked immediately, indicating real AI demand; however, tightening financing channels and capex far exceeding revenue show the business's critical issue is "whether money can continue to be borrowed." If revenue and guidance on November 12 cannot support the AI narrative, valuation cuts will spread from US AI stocks to all high-beta assets, and BTC won't escape.
BTC current price is about 80400, I have taken profits on my 30x long position today and am now watching empty-handed. My approach: no new leveraged longs before the earnings, wait for BTC to oscillate between 7900—8100; follow up if it breaks above 81190 with ETF net inflows, switch to defense if it falls below 78960. Others bet on the earnings, I first watch the results of their bets.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC Today's Market Snapshot: Election Pressure Eases with a Rebound, but the "Fuel" Remains Short Covering
Dimension Current Status
Current Price Around $80,500 - 77,890 - $81,196
Fear and Greed Index 50 (Neutral), sharply up from yesterday's 34, entering the neutral zone
Liquidation Structure Approximately $560 million liquidated across the entire market in 24 hours, dominating absolutely; single-hour short liquidations once reached $378 million, accounting for 81% of that hour's liquidations
ETF Funds (November 4) Net inflow of 1.16 billion. However, IBIT still saw an outflow of 237 million **Inflow leads
The core mechanism of the rebound is clearly written in the liquidation data: after the price broke through $80,000, shorts were forced to buy to close positions, and the buy orders from liquidations pushed the price further up, forming a short-term positive feedback loop. This means the current rise is more of a passive adjustment of the leverage structure rather than an active influx of spot demand. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ #美国中选改变美伊预期，布伦特跌破95美元 Oil prices crashed directly! Dropped eight or nine points in one day, the plot twist is faster than flipping a book. Recently, due to the tense Middle East situation, oil prices stubbornly held the $100 mark, but this week they were slapped down by political winds. Let me break down what exactly happened for you guys. The US midterm elections just ended, and the Democrats won both houses of Congress. This political change had the most direct impact on the Middle East situation. The Democrats advocate ending the conflict, and Trump also stated he will not attack Iran for the time being. Seeing this, the market immediately thought the war wouldn't happen, and crude oil supply could soon recover. So funds frantically sold off; on November 4th, Brent crude oil plummeted 8.67%, falling below $95; WTI also fell below the $90 mark. Related crude oil token assets also plunged across the board, with declines over 3%. My personal view is: this plunge is completely the result of both sentiment and fundamentals hitting at once. Two layers of logic. The first is sentiment: US domestic political pressure changed, everyone thinks the war will stop, expectations changed, and bulls rushed to take profits. The second is fundamentals: global crude oil supply was already somewhat oversupplied, and once the "war premium" is removed, pricing logic immediately returns to the reality of "supply exceeding demand." However, don't think the Middle East is peaceful yet. Iran's conditions haven't been agreed upon, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz hasn't fully resumed, and October's export data was even lower than September's. So, this sell-off is more about "trading expectations" 40x short position, I see this message as reinforcing bearish sentiment, but it is not enough to prove it follows the trend. Arkham detected James Wynn holding about 0.24 $BTC short position, with a screenshot showing an unrealized profit of about $26, that's the fact.
I have three principles for trading trends. First, look at the market direction, not who placed the order. This short position only reflects his choice, it cannot confirm the direction for the entire market.
Second, leverage does not equal certainty; 40x amplifies profit and loss sensitivity, not the reliability of the judgment. Third, unrealized profit is not evidence of a trend; a screenshot is just a moment in time. If onlookers treat high leverage as a strong signal, I speculate it will amplify short-term bearish sentiment but may not increase the accuracy of the judgment.
The trend is the best friend; I still wait for market confirmation and do not follow celebrities' positions. Facing this kind of message, do you now use price structure, volume, or other methods to judge the trend?$BTC is now around 80,400, up +2.5% in 24h, but it basically stalled between 80,270–80,800 this afternoon, with no direction since last night's big bullish candle that squeezed out shorts.
Looking at liquidation data makes it clearer: TRdesk reports BTC liquidations of about $270 million in the past 24h, 95% of which were shorts, but only $9.1 million in the last 12 hours, and just $460,000 in the last 4 hours. Shorts that needed to be liquidated have basically been cleared out.
$ETH is similar, with $136 million liquidated in 24h, only $1.2 million in the last 4 hours, price at 2,418, not far from the 24h high of 2,450.
OKX perpetual rates for BTC and ETH are both 0.01%, leverage hasn't been rebuilt.
My view is that the fuel has burned out; next, it will rely on spot and tonight's US market ETF flows to push it. Without new volume, sideways movement is more common than further rallies.
$BTC $ETH The most fragile link was actually the batch of people in the early session who "didn't dare to take it." The reversal came so quickly—is it a shakeout or has the capital preference really changed? When I was watching the market in the morning, my first reaction was not excitement but tension. The news of the Democratic Party's victory suppressed the market; the Nasdaq once fell 2% intraday, BTC followed down, and that drop below 76,000 was just a breath away from 75,000, with everyone in the group chat talking about even deeper levels. At that moment, the most fragile was not the price but the support—those willing to place orders suddenly became fewer, and the selling pressure seemed particularly heavy. But the script did not follow panic. BTC sharply pulled back from the low, ETH rebounded in sync, and high-beta tokens like SOL and Koru also bounced back quite well. What I was watching was not how much it rose, but the speed of the pullback: the decline took half a day, but the recovery only took a short time, indicating that low-level chips were unwilling to let go, and the short squeeze component was very obvious. What the market was actually trading here was not the election itself, but "who is still willing to hold risky assets after the bad news has landed." The morning sell-off priced in some policy concerns in advance; once the index stopped falling and capital preference shifted from defense back to offense, the pace became very fast. After BTC stabilized, ETH and altcoins had the confidence to follow the rise; conversely, if BTC breaks the previous low again, high-beta tokens will be the first to be sold off. The bullish side: volume recovered at low levels, panic selling was absorbed, and sentiment shifted from one-sided to hesitant, which is usually the starting point for a short-term recovery. The risk is also clear: a rebound that is too fast can be overextended, and if the Nasdaq weakens again, today's lower shadow will be retested, and those chasing highs will become the new fragile link. There's something quite counterintuitive: BTC rose 7%, but contract open interest actually dropped 6%, and ETH even more sharply, down over 20%.
Prices go up, but positions go down. It's not that everyone is rushing to buy; it's that the shorts are giving up and closing their positions. Once the shorts exit, prices naturally get pushed up.
This kind of rise is fast but not solid. When real money comes in, open interest will rise together. Now the long-short ratio has dropped from 2.92 to 1.53, and the number of people daring to go long has halved. The fear and greed index just hit 50, meaning fear is gone but greed is still far off.
So I didn't chase this wave; I'll wait until it stabilizes at 80,000 before making a move. BTC pulled from 75,736 to 81,196 USD, a 7.2% rebound. Among the top 100 assets on the entire network, 84 rose, and the fear and greed index went from 34 back to 50.
But the futures market is sending a contrary signal. BTC futures open interest is 20.54 billion USD, down 6.30% in 24 hours; ETH is even worse, down 22.29%. The long-short ratio dropped from 2.92 to 1.53.
Price rising, open interest falling, and long-short ratio dropping all point to one explanation: the main driver of this rally is short covering, not new buying. Shorts giving up and covering pushed the price up, but the money driving it did not stay in the market.
$BTC market dominance is 58.55%, rising 0.12 percentage points in 24 hours, with capital preference still concentrated on Bitcoin. But rising dominance does not equal net inflow—altcoins fell more, so dominance can rise anyway. A healthy broad rally would see $ETH follow and dominance decline.
Politically, the Democrats took both houses of Congress, and the market worries the CLARITY Act legislation will slow down. But the already enacted GENIUS Act and strategic Bitcoin reserves will not automatically become invalid, and the ETF pathway does not depend on any individual. What changes is the speed, not the existence of the system.
Technically, 80,000 is a key observation level, and 82,600 is the next hurdle. One point to consider: short covering consumes selling pressure, it does not create buying demand. If the spot market does not catch up after covering, the ground beneath is empty.#非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？
The market currently expects an increase of 65,000 jobs, with the previous figure at 29,000, better than expected, indicating that the U.S. job market has not yet shown a clear slowdown.
However, the context of this non-farm payroll is somewhat different. The Federal Reserve chose to pause rate hikes in October, with two officials even voting to continue raising rates. The market's expectation for a rate hike in December is already quite high.
If tomorrow night's employment and wage data remain strong, it may further reinforce the Fed's hawkish stance, putting pressure on $BTC, gold, and U.S. stocks.
$ETH $ZEC Heat dissipates, and the market falls into sideways consolidation
$PEPE is currently fluctuating around 0.000005.
After the previous theft incident triggered sell-offs, a fund swept in 45.08 billion tokens at once.
Simple calculation:
45.08 billion tokens × 0.000005, valued at about 2.25 million USD.
This large buy order of over 2 million USD quickly drove the coin price up in the short term.
The root cause of the difficulty in sustaining heat:
The market rally completely depends on this one-time buy order.
When this fund stops buying, subsequent transactions cannot continue, and the price quickly returns to the original range.
$TRUMP remains around 1.58, with no new funds entering on the voting day.
$UNI has been consolidating around 7 USD for a long time; the protocol fundamentals are profitable, but incremental buying continues to be absent.
The three targets show the same market characteristics: event-driven catalysts bring pulse-like rallies, but after the hype fades, there is a lack of follow-up buying.
Potential incoming funds are mostly still waiting for volume signals or new narratives to emerge.
#CryptoIndustryCollaboratesToProtectAssetSecurity
#非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ ADP data is so strong that I reversed and opened a small short position on $BTC — tonight's Nonfarm Payrolls will reveal the truth
ADP added 86,000 jobs, and the ISM Services Employment Index has risen for two consecutive months, directly crushing the market's expectation for tonight's Nonfarm Payrolls (60,000).
I have to pour cold water on myself first. Inflation is far from dead, the Fed held steady in October, and now the employment data is so robust, clearly showing the economy doesn't need saving. If tonight's Nonfarm Payrolls also beat expectations, the December rate hike expectations will surely soar. Once US Treasury yields rise, all risk assets will take a hit.
So I'm not stubborn; I opened a small short position on $BTC following the trend, with a cost roughly above 80,000. The logic is simple: with macro data like this, short-term bearish sentiment will definitely dominate. Bitcoin is already shaky around the 80,000 mark, and once the negative data is digested, the probability of a downward smash to take some profit is very high.
But I won't get carried away. The position is small, no leverage, this is just a short-term trade betting on macro data. If tonight's Nonfarm Payrolls unexpectedly disappoint and the market rallies sharply, I'll immediately admit my mistake, stop loss, and exit—no stubborn holding.
This is all my personal market feeling and plan, not investment advice.
What do you think? Will Bitcoin smash through 80,000 following the trend tonight, or hold firm at support? #非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ Bitcoin’s violent rebound has handed the market a clean, if uncomfortable, test: was the midterm-driven selloff a genuine shift in risk appetite, or simply a liquidity air pocket that gave way once the political fog lifted? $BTC broke through its prior range and climbed to 81,000, while $ETH pushed straight to 2,450. The move was as abrupt as the drop that preceded it, and the sequence matters more than the levels themselves. The source narrative points to a chain of political causality. Trump lBTC was still hovering just above 80,000 in the evening; don’t mistake the daytime recovery as a free pass before the US market opens.
Watching it climb back from around 75,000 during the day looks lively, but it’s mostly shorts covering at the top. Has real money re-entered? Spot ETF has still seen net outflows in recent days, so the market doesn’t really look like "everyone believes again." The fear and greed index jumped quickly from the low 30s to around 50, flipping sentiment too fast—this kind of comfortable sideways movement is the easiest to get carried away in.
US stocks haven’t opened yet, and the quiet sideways action in the Asian late session is the easiest way to fool yourself into thinking "it’s stable." When the US market opens tonight, that 80,000 line can break just like that. Don’t chase the green line to add positions; keep some in reserve, and don’t treat the daytime rebound as a ticket to the night session.
Are you watching first tonight, or have you already got your hand on the add position button? $BTC $ETH $SOL Net profit of 126 million USD, ABTC has turned the page on its loss story this quarter. This Trump family mining company was still losing money last quarter, but now it has turned profitable, mainly relying on gains from the fair value of digital assets, and its Bitcoin holdings have also increased.
What I care more about is where the profit comes from: appreciation of book assets does not equal a stronger mining business. My judgment is that this financial report is still insufficient to prove operational improvement. Will this story continue to be written by mining, or will it continue to be dictated by the price of $BTC? What does everyone think?Big Brother Maji has made profits again this round! But this time, the risks are getting more and more exciting!
Latest position data shows that Maji is not only continuously going long on $ETH but also constantly rolling and increasing positions. With 25x leverage, the holdings have increased from over 2,000 contracts initially to nearly 6,700 contracts, with the latest average opening price around $2366, and the unrealized profit once exceeded $460,000.
However, as the position size keeps expanding, the liquidation price has also been pushed to around $2391.
Big Brother seems very confident, but I am actually more cautious about ETH's short-term trend ahead.
Personally, I prefer to wait for a rebound opportunity near $2450 before considering setting up short positions.
Why not rush to chase longs?
1️⃣ The nature of the rebound still needs observation
After the US midterm election results were released, the market experienced a quick rebound. I tend to interpret this as short covering after uncertainty dissipated, rather than confirmation of a new upward trend.
2️⃣ There is resistance near $2450
If ETH rebounds to around $2450, it may face strong selling pressure above. If it cannot break through effectively, chasing higher in the short term is not cost-effective.
3️⃣ Risks of high-leverage longs are accumulating
When a large number of high-leverage positions concentrate in a similar direction, once market sentiment reverses, chained liquidations may further amplify the decline.
My short-term trading plan:
Rebound to $2450–$2480: Observe if short signals appear.
Break below $2350: Wait for confirmation before considering following the trend to short.
Feng$SNDK staring at this sluggish candlestick on the screen, I took a deep drag of my cigarette and cursed inwardly: "Why isn't it dropping yet? This damn manipulator is way too stubborn!"
【My current market analysis】
I opened a short position around 1008, now with a slight profit of +0.35, and the forced liquidation price is far away at 1114. Seeing it stubbornly hold above 1000, I calmly realized: the 1000 round number is the psychological barrier for retail traders. After the previous sharp drop, many shorts took profits here, plus the 15-minute MACD formed a weak golden cross below the zero line, temporarily propping up the price.
The 1-hour MA20 and MA60 still press down like Mount Tai, the main trend remains bearish. This current "stubbornness" is at most a minor pullback in the downtrend. From a behavioral finance perspective, the 90% of die-hard bulls from a few days ago haven't fully given up cutting losses yet, so the manipulator must repeatedly tug at this level to wear out impatient shorts like me and fatten the bulls bottom-fishing, before delivering a fatal blow.
【My iron-blooded operation】
I'm not panicking! According to the Kelly criterion, my position is very light, and my break-even stop loss is set just above the entry price. I'm going to tough it out! The resistance at the 1020 moving average above is closely watched; if it breaks out with volume, I'll run immediately. Below, I'm waiting for the previous low at 990.8; only a volume-driven break below that will be a true waterfall crash with big profits.
In trading, patience is more precious than gold. Don't shoot the hawk without seeing the rabbit. We'll outlast this manipulator!Nasdaq approval for listing does not mean trading can start. Canary's staked INJ ETF (ticker INJC) stated in the Form 8-A submitted on November 3: Nasdaq has approved the listing application; the fund aims to stake at least 90% of INJ, with custodian BitGo, and an annual fee of 1.10%. Both Injective official and Cointelegraph are reporting the same news.
The key issue is that the S-1 registration statement has not yet become effective. Listing approval is just the exchange's clearance; the public cannot buy shares yet, and there is no trading start date. Opponents interpret the 90% staking plan as the institutional channel being open; without an effective date, funds cannot flow in.
Until the S-1 becomes effective, treat this excitement as a document progress, not as the buy orders being in place. Wait for the SEC to announce effectiveness or Nasdaq to give a trading date, then see if funds follow. Snapshot around 18:03 Beijing time, Binance INJ about $8.35, 24h approximately +8.6%.
$INJ
#INJ #Injective #cryptocurrency Exchanges are delisting one after another, liquidity is in crisis! Has CORE's "countdown to zero" begun?
Multiple platforms have successively cleaned up trading pairs involving CORE, essentially due to the continuous depletion of liquidity. The chain reaction from exchange delistings is highly damaging: with each lost trading channel, order book depth thins further, bid-ask spreads widen, and the cost of exiting grows increasingly high.
To make matters worse, while external liquidity is under pressure, fundamental internal project issues remain unresolved: an 81-year continuous token release inflation pressure, meager on-chain Gas revenue, and a lack of rigid constraints on buyback commitments. Once large sell orders appear, slippage cascades can easily be triggered.
⚠️ But delisting does not mean immediate zero value. As long as the chain is still running, tokens can still circulate in wallets and on DEXs, though monetization becomes significantly more difficult. The real tipping point: if leading platforms follow suit with delistings and on-exchange buy orders continue to shrink, liquidity death will accelerate.
Holders must plan their exit strategies in advance and not hope for a sudden market reversal to save the day. Liquidity risk is often more fatal than a simple price drop.On-chain data doesn't lie: CORE's Gas fee revenue is only $200, what supports its tens of millions market cap?
The underlying on-chain data exposes a huge contradiction in CORE's valuation: the base Gas revenue of the entire public chain is extremely low, yet it carries a market cap in the tens of millions, revealing a clear shortfall in value support.
The meager base Gas revenue means the public chain itself cannot generate sufficient native income. Additionally, the project has adjusted its burn mechanism; transaction fees are no longer used for deflationary burns but instead flow to ecosystem and node incentives, making it difficult for Gas revenue to feed back into token value.
The buyback logic the project team hopes for requires the ecosystem to generate enough profit to be realized. But with severely insufficient base chain income, even if the application layer generates some transaction fees, whether they can be passed on to the CORE token remains unknown. Coupled with inflationary selling pressure from token releases lasting 81 years, the gap between valuation and fundamentals continues to widen.
This also serves as a warning to investors: don't be simply swayed by the BTCFi narrative. The valuation of a public chain ultimately must return to the real on-chain cash flow. After the narrative hype fades, the revenue shortfall will become the biggest drag on the token price.Can the BTCFi narrative save CORE? Compared to Babylon and Merlin, how much chance does it still have?
With the resurgence of BTCFi's popularity, many hope this sector can reverse CORE's decline, but a horizontal comparison with competitors shows that CORE faces significant challenges to break through.
Babylon firmly holds the native BTC staking track, attracting massive institutional capital, with a significantly leading TVL scale, and controls the most core BTC yield narrative; Merlin, as a Bitcoin ZK-Rollup, deeply cultivates BRC20 and inscription assets, with outstanding on-chain interaction and liquidity advantages.
CORE's advantage lies in being an independent L1 + EVM-compatible chain, capable of directly supporting DeFi needs after staking on-chain, suitable for retail investors who prefer to complete all operations on a single chain. But its shortcomings are fatal: an 81-year continuous token release causing high inflation, an unfulfilled buyback plan, and an architecture with only 21 validator nodes, raising decentralization concerns. Institutional funds tend to prefer Babylon.
The sector's recovery can bring short-term sentiment rebounds, but relying solely on the BTCFi narrative is unlikely to fundamentally solve the tokenomics issues. Only with real ecosystem revenue landing and effective inflation hedging does CORE have a chance to turn around; otherwise, it will most likely just follow sector fluctuations and struggle to achieve an independent major rally.