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Big Brother Maji has made profits again this round! But this time, the risks are getting more and more exciting!
Latest position data shows that Maji is not only continuously going long on $ETH but also constantly rolling and increasing positions. With 25x leverage, the holdings have increased from over 2,000 contracts initially to nearly 6,700 contracts, with the latest average opening price around $2366, and the unrealized profit once exceeded $460,000.
However, as the position size keeps expanding, the liquidation price has also been pushed to around $2391.
Big Brother seems very confident, but I am actually more cautious about ETH's short-term trend ahead.
Personally, I prefer to wait for a rebound opportunity near $2450 before considering setting up short positions.
Why not rush to chase longs?
1️⃣ The nature of the rebound still needs observation
After the US midterm election results were released, the market experienced a quick rebound. I tend to interpret this as short covering after uncertainty dissipated, rather than confirmation of a new upward trend.
2️⃣ There is resistance near $2450
If ETH rebounds to around $2450, it may face strong selling pressure above. If it cannot break through effectively, chasing higher in the short term is not cost-effective.
3️⃣ Risks of high-leverage longs are accumulating
When a large number of high-leverage positions concentrate in a similar direction, once market sentiment reverses, chained liquidations may further amplify the decline.
My short-term trading plan:
Rebound to $2450–$2480: Observe if short signals appear.
Break below $2350: Wait for confirmation before considering following the trend to short.
Feng$SNDK staring at this sluggish candlestick on the screen, I took a deep drag of my cigarette and cursed inwardly: "Why isn't it dropping yet? This damn manipulator is way too stubborn!"
【My current market analysis】
I opened a short position around 1008, now with a slight profit of +0.35, and the forced liquidation price is far away at 1114. Seeing it stubbornly hold above 1000, I calmly realized: the 1000 round number is the psychological barrier for retail traders. After the previous sharp drop, many shorts took profits here, plus the 15-minute MACD formed a weak golden cross below the zero line, temporarily propping up the price.
The 1-hour MA20 and MA60 still press down like Mount Tai, the main trend remains bearish. This current "stubbornness" is at most a minor pullback in the downtrend. From a behavioral finance perspective, the 90% of die-hard bulls from a few days ago haven't fully given up cutting losses yet, so the manipulator must repeatedly tug at this level to wear out impatient shorts like me and fatten the bulls bottom-fishing, before delivering a fatal blow.
【My iron-blooded operation】
I'm not panicking! According to the Kelly criterion, my position is very light, and my break-even stop loss is set just above the entry price. I'm going to tough it out! The resistance at the 1020 moving average above is closely watched; if it breaks out with volume, I'll run immediately. Below, I'm waiting for the previous low at 990.8; only a volume-driven break below that will be a true waterfall crash with big profits.
In trading, patience is more precious than gold. Don't shoot the hawk without seeing the rabbit. We'll outlast this manipulator!Nasdaq approval for listing does not mean trading can start. Canary's staked INJ ETF (ticker INJC) stated in the Form 8-A submitted on November 3: Nasdaq has approved the listing application; the fund aims to stake at least 90% of INJ, with custodian BitGo, and an annual fee of 1.10%. Both Injective official and Cointelegraph are reporting the same news.
The key issue is that the S-1 registration statement has not yet become effective. Listing approval is just the exchange's clearance; the public cannot buy shares yet, and there is no trading start date. Opponents interpret the 90% staking plan as the institutional channel being open; without an effective date, funds cannot flow in.
Until the S-1 becomes effective, treat this excitement as a document progress, not as the buy orders being in place. Wait for the SEC to announce effectiveness or Nasdaq to give a trading date, then see if funds follow. Snapshot around 18:03 Beijing time, Binance INJ about $8.35, 24h approximately +8.6%.
$INJ
#INJ #Injective #cryptocurrency Exchanges are delisting one after another, liquidity is in crisis! Has CORE's "countdown to zero" begun?
Multiple platforms have successively cleaned up trading pairs involving CORE, essentially due to the continuous depletion of liquidity. The chain reaction from exchange delistings is highly damaging: with each lost trading channel, order book depth thins further, bid-ask spreads widen, and the cost of exiting grows increasingly high.
To make matters worse, while external liquidity is under pressure, fundamental internal project issues remain unresolved: an 81-year continuous token release inflation pressure, meager on-chain Gas revenue, and a lack of rigid constraints on buyback commitments. Once large sell orders appear, slippage cascades can easily be triggered.
⚠️ But delisting does not mean immediate zero value. As long as the chain is still running, tokens can still circulate in wallets and on DEXs, though monetization becomes significantly more difficult. The real tipping point: if leading platforms follow suit with delistings and on-exchange buy orders continue to shrink, liquidity death will accelerate.
Holders must plan their exit strategies in advance and not hope for a sudden market reversal to save the day. Liquidity risk is often more fatal than a simple price drop.On-chain data doesn't lie: CORE's Gas fee revenue is only $200, what supports its tens of millions market cap?
The underlying on-chain data exposes a huge contradiction in CORE's valuation: the base Gas revenue of the entire public chain is extremely low, yet it carries a market cap in the tens of millions, revealing a clear shortfall in value support.
The meager base Gas revenue means the public chain itself cannot generate sufficient native income. Additionally, the project has adjusted its burn mechanism; transaction fees are no longer used for deflationary burns but instead flow to ecosystem and node incentives, making it difficult for Gas revenue to feed back into token value.
The buyback logic the project team hopes for requires the ecosystem to generate enough profit to be realized. But with severely insufficient base chain income, even if the application layer generates some transaction fees, whether they can be passed on to the CORE token remains unknown. Coupled with inflationary selling pressure from token releases lasting 81 years, the gap between valuation and fundamentals continues to widen.
This also serves as a warning to investors: don't be simply swayed by the BTCFi narrative. The valuation of a public chain ultimately must return to the real on-chain cash flow. After the narrative hype fades, the revenue shortfall will become the biggest drag on the token price.Can the BTCFi narrative save CORE? Compared to Babylon and Merlin, how much chance does it still have?
With the resurgence of BTCFi's popularity, many hope this sector can reverse CORE's decline, but a horizontal comparison with competitors shows that CORE faces significant challenges to break through.
Babylon firmly holds the native BTC staking track, attracting massive institutional capital, with a significantly leading TVL scale, and controls the most core BTC yield narrative; Merlin, as a Bitcoin ZK-Rollup, deeply cultivates BRC20 and inscription assets, with outstanding on-chain interaction and liquidity advantages.
CORE's advantage lies in being an independent L1 + EVM-compatible chain, capable of directly supporting DeFi needs after staking on-chain, suitable for retail investors who prefer to complete all operations on a single chain. But its shortcomings are fatal: an 81-year continuous token release causing high inflation, an unfulfilled buyback plan, and an architecture with only 21 validator nodes, raising decentralization concerns. Institutional funds tend to prefer Babylon.
The sector's recovery can bring short-term sentiment rebounds, but relying solely on the BTCFi narrative is unlikely to fundamentally solve the tokenomics issues. Only with real ecosystem revenue landing and effective inflation hedging does CORE have a chance to turn around; otherwise, it will most likely just follow sector fluctuations and struggle to achieve an independent major rally.Tonight's review has one main theme: the boot has dropped. The results of the U.S. midterm elections are out, with the Democrats taking both the House and Senate. Logically, this should be a major upheaval, but the Dow rose about 3%, the S&P 500 rose 1.6%, and BTC pulled back from a seven-week low of 75,700 to above 80,000, around just over 80,000 during the day. ETH is above 2,400, up about 6%. Why the rise? It's like dating: the worst thing is not your partner controlling you, but your partner having a different idea every day. Now that someone is in control, you can actually sleep well. The market fears not bad outcomes, but uncertainty. Another reason is technical: short positions were liquidated about $378 million in one hour. Simply put, it's a short squeeze, not a large influx of new money. The fear and greed index returned to a neutral 50. Spot BTC ETF saw a slight net inflow on Wednesday, ending three consecutive days of outflows, but the cumulative outflows from previous days remain. This is like on the third day after a breakup, the other party sends a "Are you there?" message—not necessarily a real comeback; it depends on whether there are sincere apologies over the following days. There's also regulatory talk: the CLARITY Act was already stuck, and with the change of control in both chambers, advancing it will be more difficult. The Democrats are still discussing whether to strengthen investor protections; rules may become stricter, but that's better than no rules. Don't treat this as either bad or good news—just consider the "wedding date" postponed. Don't forget the macro picture: September CPI at 3.7% was higher than expected, and the market prices in a significant chance of a rate hike at the December FOMC. Risk assets are celebrating today, but the Fed may be quietly preparing the bill on the side. Outlook for tomorrow: watch if 80,000 can hold. If it holds, it means the buying is real; if not, it's just the inertia of a short squeeze.The rebound in major cryptocurrencies is real, but it is not uniform. $BTC, $ETH and $SOL have all moved off their lows, yet the composition of each bounce tells a different story about who is actually buying. $BTC offers the clearest case of short covering. After touching $75,600, it was pulled quickly back above $80,000, a move that suggests bids remain underneath the market but also carries the fingerprints of forced buybacks rather than fresh conviction. The immediate test is whether $80,000I smell that familiar feeling from the last round when people used corporate earnings reports to talk about a bull market again.
Trump family mining company ABTC posted a net profit of $126 million in Q3, with holdings increasing to 8,427 coins. This time, I pay more attention to the holdings: the profit turning positive mainly relies on fair value gains of digital assets, which does not mean mining is more profitable.
I judge this as a magnifier of coin exposure, not yet solid proof of a mining industry recovery. Old players, seeing mining companies hoarding coins and valuation gains supporting profits, do you feel that familiar vibe from the last round?Preparing to eat dinner in the evening, I checked the futures capital flow and found a warning signal: BTC and ETH prices are both rising, but short-term funds are starting to withdraw! DOGE is even more dominated by long-term outflows. How much strength does this rebound really have?
First, look at $BTC: $80,356, up 2.42%
After the US midterm elections, the dollar weakened, US stocks rebounded, boosting risk appetite. But futures capital data shows BTC net inflow of about $130 million in the past 24 hours, yet an outflow of $19.26 million in the last 4 hours, and a cumulative outflow of $9.16 billion in the past 30 days. Short-term support is at 80,000, with resistance at 82,000 above.
Next, look at $ETH: $2,414, up 3.97%
ETH's gains lead BTC, but capital flow shows divergence. Net inflow of about $704 million in the past 24 hours, outflow of $61.85 million in the last 4 hours, and outflow of $91.59 million in the last 6 hours. This indicates short-term enthusiasm for chasing gains is still divided. Hold 2,400 and then look to 2,500.
Finally, look at $DOGE: $0.07706, up 2.49%
DOGE futures capital flow is even more worrisome! The chart shows net outflows for most of the year, and the price rebound lacks sustained capital support. Short-term support at 0.075, break through 0.08 to look for continuation.
A few final words
24-hour inflows do not mean sustained short-term bullishness; capital divergence is the key! For this wave, I prefer to wait for confirmation and am not in a hurry to chase.
#CircleQ3营收超预期，USDC链上交易量增长49% Money market funds, those things with such low returns that no one pays them any attention, are actually the first type of fund to be tokenized on the blockchain.
I always thought the first to be tokenized would be the high-growth, story-rich varieties. But it turns out that a European asset manager turned the least sexy cash fund into a token, still keeping half to sell to old clients.
Frankly, it’s a way to avoid offending either side: old clients don’t accept tokens, new clients find the process cumbersome, so they just opened both paths.
Recording shares on $ETH and having more transparent records—these terms sound great. But ordinary people only care about two things—whether there’s one less fee, or if the payment arrives a day faster? No one talks about that.
So even now, I still don’t understand who this is actually convenient for. Binance has just survived a hacker attack with losses as high as $6.3 billion and is now showing signs of recovery. Its tracked assets have increased by about $5 billion, reaching $133.12 billion. $BNB
The cash flow in the past 24 hours was positive $774 million, but the cash flow over the past 7 days is still negative $10.88 billion. Withdrawal pressure remains.
One day’s inflow is not enough to offset a week’s sell-off. Do you think Binance has regained trust? 🔥 #USJobsReportInFocus — FRIDAY DECIDES THE FED 👀
ADP October: +86K vs +69K expected. Private hiring beat.
BLS Friday 15:30 SA: +65K expected, unemployment 4.2%. September was just +29K.
JOLTS: 1.06 jobs per unemployed — still tight.
What it means for crypto:
Hot jobs = Fed hawkish = risk pressure.
Weak jobs = cut hopes = risk relief.
Don't trade the headline. Wait for confirmation, manage risk.
Your call: Hot or weak on Friday? 👇
#USJobsReportInFocus #JobsReport #Fed #Crypto #Bitcoin #OKXTomorrow night at 21:30, the US October nonfarm payroll report will be released. Let's talk about my views.
The market expects an increase of 65,000 jobs, up from 29,000 previously, with the unemployment rate expected to remain at 4.2%. Last night, ADP added 86,000 jobs, better than expected, indicating that the US job market has not yet shown a clear slowdown.
But the background for this nonfarm report is somewhat different:
The Federal Reserve paused rate hikes in October, with two officials even voting to continue raising rates. The market's expectation for a rate hike in December is already quite high.
If tomorrow night's employment and wage data continue to be strong, it could further reinforce the Fed's hawkish stance, putting pressure on $BTC, gold, and US stocks.
Personally, I lean towards a moderate recovery in employment data, but it may not be enough to change the policy expectations already formed by the market.
So the most worth watching tomorrow night is whether risk assets can hold up if the data exceeds expectations.
After all, the rate hike expectation is already in place. What the market really fears may be stronger-than-expected employment and inflation pressures 🫡
#非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ A European asset management company has tokenized the shares of a money market fund on-chain without cutting off the old channels.
Amundi, in collaboration with CACEIS, launched the first tokenized share for its AMUNDI FUNDS CASH EUR money market fund, using a hybrid distribution model: investors can either go through traditional channels or buy the tokenized shares J28 EUR DLT (C). The underlying ledger is the public Ethereum.
Why is the money market fund the first to go on-chain? Because it is most like cash: short term, low net asset value volatility, naturally suitable for collateral and settlement. Institutions are not looking to speculate on it, but to move idle cash onto a track that can settle 7×24 hours and serve as collateral.
Note the four words "hybrid distribution." It is both a convenience and a compromise—the custody, registration, subscription, and redemption still go through CACEIS's old channels; the token only adds an additional entry point, not a replacement. The official emphasized benefits are transparency and traceability, not returns or speed.
The real signal is that "public Ethereum" is written into the plan: using a regulated public chain for share registration means acknowledging this path is viable. $ETH thus gains an additional use unrelated to price, and $USDC and $ONDO will also be mentioned along the way.
What is worth considering: if after a year only this money market fund is on-chain, the resistance lies in custody and regulation; if stock funds are also brought on-chain, it will truly shift from an experiment to a channel. For now, it is just the first one. Binance was hacked, and 48 hours later, hackers continue to attack multiple targets in the cryptocurrency market!
According to CryptoCeek, days after the Binance incident, attacks continue targeting Mercado Bitcoin, EU organizations, BTCPay merchants, and 12 DeFi platforms. $BNB
Preliminary estimated losses exceed $146 million.
=> Crypto assets are not necessarily safe just because they are stored on the blockchain.
Five principles to protect your assets:
Only keep trading funds on exchanges; transfer long-term assets to wallets you control.
Do not save your mnemonic phrase as images, cloud notes, or on websites.
Prioritize using apps or hardware security keys for two-factor authentication.
Revoke access permissions (token approvals) on DeFi platforms that you no longer use.
Be vigilant about customer service messages, withdrawal alerts, and invitations to transfer assets to secure wallets.
Self-managing your assets lets you control your private keys but also means you bear sole responsibility for their security.
Do you think storing cryptocurrency on exchanges is safer, or is self-managing with a cold wallet more secure? BTC sits at $BTC 80,444.90 (-0.03%), holding strong after bouncing from its low of $BTC 75,690.10. Crypto always moves in waves: past crashes like 2018 and 2022 saw brutal dips before massive bull runs. History shows prices cooling off before smashing new highs like Bitcoin's peak near $BTC 84,876.00.
My ultimate all-time prediction is BTC hitting $1,000,000 per coin long term.
Will Bitcoin smash past its old record during the next big cycle? Trump's media coverage continues to be disappointing.
$BTC After more than three months, visiting Crypto.com again
According to data recorded by Arkham 1 hour ago, this entity's wallet has cumulatively deposited 4,259.
$BTC Worth $343 million USD Please visit http://Crypto.com
Surprisingly, this deposit amount is twice the previous two deposits combined, and it is also all of their remaining assets. They currently hold only 1.3 million.$BTC
Arkham reported that James Wynn holds a 40x BTC short position. I checked the quantity, 0.24 BTC.
At the current price of 80453, the nominal value is just over nineteen thousand dollars, with margin under five hundred dollars at 40x leverage. This even made it to the broadcast.
Last year, when he had tens of millions in positions, a single liquidation could drag the market sentiment down for half a day. Now I just scroll past this without stopping. The reputation remains, but the position is gone.
What really matters is the holdings. Two hours ago I recorded 33,597 BTC, now 33,582, down by fifteen BTC. The price moved from 80541 to 80453, just a few dozen dollars back and forth. No money came in or out.
The funding rate is still pinned at the 0.01% benchmark, no premium at all. 81199 was left at 11 PM last night, this morning at 9 AM a surge of 340,000 contracts hit 80886 with no follow-up, at 3 PM 260,000 contracts were pushed back to 80755.
The order book is somewhat interesting: within ±1%, buy orders total 280 million, sell orders 90 million, a 3:1 ratio. The buy side is thick but the price isn't pushed up, indicating orders are placed but not filled.
A 0.24 BTC short with five hundred dollars margin. Even whale reports have shrunk these days.
#非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ 🔷 CryptoX-ray #31: $AKE - cap $66M, FDV $290M
Volume ~$26.6M, about 40% of the cap. Circulating 22.8% out of 100 billion.
Red flag: November 21 unlock ~2.108 billion AKE (~9% of circulation). Burn and payments to stakers announced but not confirmed.
Verdict: there is volume, no demand for the platform seen. Waiting for verifiable payments. Ready for −30%.
Will the unlock crush the price? 👇Some existing and potential investors discussing Anthropic's valuation have lowered it from about $2 trillion to around $1.5 trillion. This is an investor valuation discussion and should not be directly written as the confirmed IPO offering price.
The drop of about 25% seems large, but it only indicates a change in the price acceptance range between both parties and cannot alone prove that it is cheap now.
What I care more about is the company's disclosed future funding arrangements: approximately $895.4 billion committed to computing power and infrastructure expenditures, of which about $69.8 billion is expected to occur within the twelve months ending September 2027.
These are cross-period commitments and cannot all be counted as current quarter expenses; however, the upcoming payment demands will affect how much financing the company needs and how fast future revenues must grow.
Demand and revenue have already shown strong momentum, but valuation still needs to consider capital costs, spending pace, and profitability. Willingness to pay a high price for growth is understandable; extending growth indefinitely easily leads to a valuation that only holds in the most optimistic scenario.
I am actually not opposed to the cooling down of valuation discussions. Investors starting to seriously talk about price and terms is more useful than just arguing over who can become the biggest AI company. The company can be excellent, but shareholder returns still depend on how much was paid and how much more needs to be invested later.
#Anthropic潜在IPO投资者建议估值降至1.5万亿美元 Gold rose 0.43%, the US dollar fell 0.28%, but BTC fell against the trend by 0.66%. External conditions are clearly favorable, so why doesn't BTC follow? 1. News. COMEX gold closed at $3,957.4, up 0.43% for the day; spot gold is about $3,946.5; the US dollar index is at 101.46, down 0.28% intraday; BTC is at $77,187.6, down 0.66% in 24 hours and down 4.18% over the past week, with a 20-day low of $76,265.2. The three show obvious divergence. 2. Capital impact. BTC ETF latest single-day net outflow is $663.6 million, 5-day net outflow is $226.5 million, 10-day net outflow is $351.2 million. Gold rising and the dollar weakening should be bullish for risk assets, but large ETF redemptions offset the macro tailwind. The fear and greed index rose from 26 to 34, but the improved sentiment has not immediately translated into BTC buying. 3. BTC implications. Gold first received safe-haven funds, while BTC is still suppressed by ETF redemptions and exchange risks. This is not simply a case of "safe-haven assets winning," but a gap in BTC's own capital flow. Only when ETF outflows narrow and BTC retakes 79,220 can it indicate that the macro tailwind is starting to transmit. Otherwise, a weaker dollar only reduces pressure, it is not an engine for a rise. 4. Observation indicators. I will focus on four indicators next: first, whether ETF single-day outflow can drop below $100 million; second, whether the 5-day cumulative can turn positive; third, whether the dollar can continue below 102; fourth, BT Sun Ge's recent moves are really baffling!
He boasts a net worth of up to $85 billion, but when it comes to raising $140 million, reports reveal he's shuffling funds around and even seems a bit strapped for cash?
First, he pledged 580 million $TRX, then issued an additional 60 million USDD, subsequently exchanging them for USDT through the official liquidity pool, and finally transferred everything to Binance to earn a 10% financial yield.
This series of operations looks like a grand financial juggling act.
On the surface, he's a glamorous figure with a net worth in the hundreds of billions, but behind the scenes, it's a complex web of pledges, exchanges, and fund movements.
The question is: how much truly free cash does Sun Ge have? Of the so-called $85 billion net worth, how much is real hard capital?
The financial story behind $TRX might be even more worth watching than the market itself!The contract price rising does not mean institutions are buying
Last night the contract surged sharply, and many thought big money had entered.
But the spot ETF data on the same day tells a different story.
How this number is calculated:
$BTC net inflow is 9.63 million, with Fidelity contributing 30 million.
BlackRock ran nearly 26 million in the same period, hedging between the two sides.
Common misinterpretations:
$ETH shows a superficial net inflow of 23,300, which looks like a positive shift.
BlackRock sold nearly 100 million in a single day, and Grayscale is buying.
This is turnover, not adding positions.
$SOL’s three data points are all zero; institutions don’t even provide numbers.
The contract side is lively, but no one is placing orders on the spot side.
Contracts reflect sentiment; spot is real money.
When several institutions turn positive together someday, that will be the bottom.
#BTC进入摩根大通长期预测，机构配置仍谨慎 $BTC $ETH Brothers, daily mainstream altcoin quick report
$XRP $1.32 |$SOL $96.8 |$DOGE $0.0771
XRP's ETF is the only one that hasn't run in this wave. Last week, Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs had a combined outflow of $634 million, while XRP ETF had a net inflow of $4.32 million, positive for the second consecutive week. The price bounced back to 1.32, up about 2.8% in 24 hours, with 71.6% of global accounts long, and 74.1% of top traders bullish. But 1.35 above is the 200-day moving average, also the first hard resistance in this rebound.
SOL is very active on-chain, but ETFs are running out. Samsung's 82 million phones will connect to Solana's USDC transfers by the end of the month, Securitize issued 12 tokenized US stocks on Solana, with 1.7 million new wallets daily. However, the US spot SOL ETF has had net outflows for four consecutive days, with on-chain activity and institutional funds moving separately. The price is 96.8, 90 is a structural breakout level, only above it is there a chance to see 100-114.
DOGE's ETF is basically gone. The Dogecoin spot ETF pool only has $720,000 left, with total trading volume in September just over $50,000, liquidity is exhausted, exit is only a matter of time. The price is 0.0771, up about 2.6% in 24 hours, but technically still bearish, down nearly 20% in a month.
Let's discuss in the comments, between XRP's lone ETF and SOL's on-chain prosperity, which do you trust this time?👇
#非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ In my spare time at work, I looked through Brother 800's open orders. Despite losing 3.81 million, he’s still adding more long positions. I think I understand this big player’s strategy.
First, look at the performance, quite scary: a total loss of over 3.81 million USD, performance -86.78%, 30-day win rate 10.9%. At his peak, four accounts lost over 30 million and are now recovering.
All positions are long, three trades totaling 4.54 million USD. Two BTC trades: the 67701 old position has an unrealized profit of 375%, the 77997 new position has 59% unrealized profit; one ETH trade at 2289 with 94% unrealized profit. Leverage ranges from 17 to 20 times, margin rate at a minimum of 943%, liquidation price left empty, far from liquidation.
The strategy is clear: left-side bottom fishing, buying more as prices fall, splitting orders and positions. Not relying on win rate, enduring nine losses in a row, relying on big trades to recover losses. The 67701 trade was picked up during a big drop and held until now.
Positioning sense and margin discipline are real skills. But the -86% performance shows the old problem remains: the curve went from earning 1.59 million to losing 3.83 million, winning but not stopping, giving back even more. One BTC trade is still full position at 19x leverage, the biggest risk is one sharp move wiping out the entire account.
The market is currently favoring his style: BTC holding around 80,000, ETH recovering, SOL weaker, ZEC the most volatile. He only trades BTC and ETH, which is disciplined. Tonight the Bank of England rate decision and initial jobless claims, tomorrow night the nonfarm payrolls. If the market really crashes, he will just keep adding. Just learn his margin rate, don’t copy the position size.The Democratic Party took control of both chambers of Congress (the "Blue Wave").
The market rebounded in the short term due to the elimination of uncertainty, but long-term concerns increased: the Democratic Party may strengthen investigations and regulations on Trump-related crypto businesses and large tech companies, and pro-crypto legislation such as the CLARITY Act may face obstacles.
The large amount of money invested by the crypto industry in the election failed to prevent the loss of some key seats. $SPCX Beichen once again provided precise entry points, nailing this wave of entry points perfectly 🤩
Yesterday, Beichen suggested a short strategy on the 137-138 rebound range. After the rebound reached that range in the evening, it was smashed all the way down, hitting a low of 129, even lower than Beichen's target point.
For why to short, you can check the blog post Beichen posted yesterday (Image 1). The sharp rebound after bottoming out yesterday was mainly due to profit-taking on short positions established during the rapid drop, which pushed the price up quickly.
Today it has pulled back again to the current 134 level, indicating that selling pressure and trapped positions above still exist, and the bulls lack momentum.
The short-term outlook remains bearish. Consider shorting on rebounds at 136-137, manage your positions well, with a target below 130! #非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ You don't need to blindly trust us; we hope you will continuously verify us.
Recently, the community has raised many serious questions: Where is the development progress? How will the eight-year plan be implemented? Can cross-border payments truly work? How should contract permissions, liquidity, and actual usage value be assessed?
These questions should not be avoided.
1. Vision cannot replace delivery.
Discussing global payments and blockchain infrastructure does not mean the related capabilities have been realized. Code repositories, test records, and phased results can help the community understand actual progress. But open code does not mean the product is complete, nor does it mean security has been fully verified.
2. Long-termism does not mean indefinite waiting.
The eight-year plan should be broken down into verifiable phased goals as much as possible. What work has been completed? What is still in progress? What evidence can the community verify?
Long-term goals are worth discussing, but trust must be built gradually at every stage.
3. Cross-border payments require real scenario validation.
Cross-border payments are not just about transferring tokens from one address to another; they also involve exchange costs, exchange rate spreads, arrival times, failure handling, recipient usage conditions, and compliance requirements.
Specific scenarios should be validated first, and then broader application prospects discussed based on actual test results. Why is it easier to find problems in a strategy when the trade records are more detailed?
Because if you only record profits and losses, you can only know the outcome; recording entry reasons, execution deviations, trading costs, and risks allows for further analysis of the causes.
Reviewing trades is not to make excuses for losses but to validate your trading hypotheses.
Do you record the entry reason for each trade?The most expensive lesson this hacker learned wasn't how to access the hot wallet, but that the stolen stablecoins could still be reclaimed by the other side. So before the freeze took effect, they quickly swapped what could be clawed back into ETH, which no one could claw back. Someone calculated this price difference to be about $119 million — marking the first time the "decentralization premium" was quantified in real money.
Originally, about 200,000 ETH were taken, but after trading, it turned into over 520,000 ETH. Tether and Circle can freeze USDT and USDC, but they can't freeze native ETH or those 18,270 bitcoins. So in the following days, the whole market debated the refill percentage; on-chain, the coins truly still alive were these ones without any on/off switch.
Do you think next time someone steals from an exchange, their first reaction will still be to move stablecoins?$ADA, with a market cap of 7 billion USD, generates less than $1,400 in daily on-chain fee revenue.
This turnover is really worse than a small village convenience store.
They keep boasting about technology preaching every day, but in reality, there’s no capital running business on the chain. The scoreboard shows locked funds, not the number of people discussing in the community. This extremely disconnected overvaluation is entirely propped up by faith-driven fans at the base.
Without real cash flow generation ability, the main players don’t even need to bother dumping; this market can bleed out bears by itself through a slow decline.
#ADA
$ADA
👇Does holding 10 types of cryptocurrencies mean your risk is diversified?
Not necessarily.
Different tokens may be affected by the same market sentiment, liquidity, and capital flows. Even in different sectors, they can face pressure simultaneously during a market downturn.
True diversification is not about increasing the number of coins, but understanding the sources of risk and the correlations within your overall portfolio.
Do you focus more on the number of coins or on risk correlation? #非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ The market has already priced in a high probability of a rate hike in December in advance. This non-farm payroll report is a key verification window. The focus is not only on new employment but also on wage growth, unemployment rate, and revisions to previous data, which have a stronger impact on expectations.
If the non-farm payrolls significantly exceed expectations, wages rise, and the unemployment rate falls, it indicates sufficient labor market resilience, household income supports consumption, and the pace of inflation decline is hindered. This will directly strengthen the pricing of a December rate hike, causing U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar to strengthen, while U.S. stocks, gold, and crypto assets come under pressure.
If the data meets expectations, it will likely maintain the current pricing with limited market volatility, awaiting further confirmation from subsequent CPI and PCE inflation data. Employment is steady but not overheated, and the Federal Reserve will remain cautious.
If the non-farm payrolls are clearly below expectations, unemployment rises, and wages cool down, it will weaken the rate hike logic, and trading funds will start betting on a pause in rate hikes. U.S. Treasury yields will decline, and risk assets will see a phase rebound.
But note: The Federal Reserve's core goal is inflation; employment is only an auxiliary signal. Even if employment is strong, if inflation continues to decline afterward, rate hikes remain uncertain. The short term is an expectation game, prone to a "buy the rumor, sell the fact" scenario. $BTC $ETH $ZEC I immediately felt a sense of familiarity from the previous round: financing to buy coins, and the market is once again telling stories around capital structure.
DDC is issuing preferred shares SAVOR, planning to raise $24 million to repay convertible bonds, reserve dividends, and increase BTC holdings, with an annual dividend rate of 13.5%.
Compared to the hoarding narrative, this time I'm more focused on the financing cost. I see this as a signal of the treasury sector competing on financing capability; it can't be fully counted as new buying pressure since funds still need to cover old debts and dividends. I'll be watching whether the cash flow can hold up. There's something that has always been quite counterintuitive: Ethereum being slow isn't because no one is trying; in a way, it's intentional. Every node has to recalculate the same transaction from scratch, preferring to be slow rather than trusting results calculated by others.
On November 5, Vitalik said that in the coming years they plan to use GPUs to turn this into parallel processing, while still ensuring decentralization. In plain language: they want speed but don't want to revert to a single server.
My first reaction was, isn't this wanting it both ways? But he said "in the coming years," which shows he knows it's not easy. $ETH holders are probably familiar with this dilemma—complaining about slowness when prices rise, but grateful for stability when it's slow.
Keep this statement in mind; don't rush to see it as a positive signal.What is most worth being cautious about right now is not how bullish the bulls are, but that the long-short leverage ratio has reached an extremely imbalanced level. The borrowed amount for buying $BTC is 1540.29 coins, while borrowed amount for selling is only 77.48 coins; for $ETH, the buy side is 15,100 coins versus 1603.49 coins on the sell side; for $SOL, the buy side is 128,000 coins versus 7401.42 coins on the sell side. The long-short lending ratios of all three point in the same direction—the market sentiment is almost unanimously betting on a rise. The key implication of this structure is often misinterpreted. Most people simply see "increasing borrowing for buying" as a bullish signal, but the essence of leverage borrowing is to amplify exposure, not to create direction. When the density of borrowed buying continuously climbs, it means a large number of positions are built on borrowed chips, and the holding cost and sensitivity to price fluctuations of these positions are much higher than spot buying. In other words, they accelerate the push up when prices rise, and accelerate the exit when prices pull back. What is more noteworthy is that this feature appears simultaneously in the three mainstream coins. $BTC, $ETH, and $SOL all show a pattern where buying leverage far exceeds selling leverage, indicating this is not a localized phenomenon of a single asset, but a consistent behavior of funds on mainstream targets. Historical experience shows that when buying density is concentrated and continuously rising, the probability of short-term concentrated profit-taking and oscillating adjustments rises simultaneously—not because the trend must reverse, but because the leverage structure itself becomes fragile, and any price stagnation may trigger a chain reaction of position reductions. The truly underestimated signal is the absolute low level on the selling borrowing side. $Once Circle's Q3 earnings report was released, the stock price surged pre-market and then fell back. My view is simple: the reason this market outperformed expectations is driven by the token issuance narrative, not stablecoins. #CircleQ3营收超预期，USDC链上交易量增长49%
Regarding the earnings report, here are answers to the three most concerned questions:
1. Did revenue really increase?
Yes, it reached a new quarterly high of 865 million. However, 182 million of that was one-time income from selling their own ARC tokens. Excluding this, the core business revenue actually declined.
2. Is there a problem with USDC itself?
The coin is normal. On-chain transaction volume has grown nearly 50% over the past year, and about 80% of all market transactions use USDC; after the incident next door, there was still a net inflow of 2.5 billion within 24 hours, so it remains relatively stable. But circulation volume is stagnant, and market share has been eroded. People use it as cash to spend, not as an asset for investment.
3. Will it rise or fall next?
USDC will always be one dollar, so asking about rise or fall is meaningless. The real question is CRCL: a company that lives off interest hitting a rate cut cycle, and in Q4 still has to give concessions to the competitor next door. The stock price has already been cut in half from its peak. This earnings report has no major negative news, but also no new narrative. I lean towards a volatile bottoming process.
Friends holding USDC now don’t need to panic; buying CRCL at 70-80 is also a good position. The project is still running, but the previous story of easy money printing has ended. On November 5th, Vitalik Buterin said something: In the coming years, Ethereum will use cutting-edge technologies including GPUs to achieve multitasking parallel processing while maintaining decentralization.
The weight of this statement lies in that it touches Ethereum's most fundamental structure. On-chain execution has long been single-threaded, with each node recalculating the same transaction. The slowness is the cost but also the confidence behind its claim of decentralization. To speed up, this structure cannot be bypassed.
But using GPUs is not as simple as just changing hardware. GPUs excel at running many identical computations simultaneously, while Ethereum processes general state updates, which don't align. A new execution and verification structure must be added in between. When he says "in the coming years," it's not just politeness; this work really will take years.
More informative is the latter half of the sentence: the Foundation will next focus only on four areas—technical level, security, privacy protection, and openness. Anything beyond their expertise will be left to users and the community to explore. This is a boundary contraction—from "the Foundation pushes everything" to "setting standards, providing tools, and letting the ecosystem grow on its own."
In terms of trading, $ETH gains a direction of certainty spanning several years, and the narratives for scaling layers $ARB and $OP are also reconfirmed. But there is no tradable timeline in the short term; the news itself is not a catalyst.
What’s truly worth considering is: once parallel processing really runs, will the node threshold capable of running GPUs be raised? Is the phrase "maintain decentralization" a promise or just reassurance?"Nonfarm Payrolls Night Attack, Don't Directly Equate Weak Employment to Rate Cuts"
ADP employment increased by about 91,000, while the market's expectation for nonfarm payrolls is only 65,000. The data divergence is amplifying market uncertainty. If nonfarm payrolls fall short of expectations, it may not be favorable for risk assets, and recession concerns could trigger sell-offs; if the data is strong, the expectation for a December rate cut may cool further, and the rebound in U.S. Treasury yields will suppress liquidity.
BTC's current rebound lacks volume support, ETF funds are insufficiently sustained, and selling pressure above remains obvious. ETH is performing even weaker, with limited capital support, so it is temporarily unwise to blindly bottom-fish.
$XAUT Gold benefits from safe-haven demand and central bank gold purchase expectations; the higher the macro uncertainty, the more the defensive value of gold deserves attention.
The boss says: Tonight's focus is not on guessing the rise or fall of nonfarm payrolls, but on observing the capital reaction after the data release. There is a high risk of spikes up and down, so do not chase gains or blindly bottom-fish, and orders must have stop-losses set.
Latest news: After the U.S. midterm elections, the Democratic Party took control of both houses of Congress. The market bets that the U.S.-Iran situation may ease, Brent crude oil briefly fell to around $94, and safe-haven and inflation expectations are being repriced. Reuters +3
$BTC $ETH $XAUT
#NonfarmDataUpcoming #FedRateExpectations #USIranSituationImpactGlobalMarkets ETF is crazily running away, but whales are bottom-fishing? The 80,000 mark has become a “empty city stratagem”!
ETF has seen a net outflow of $859 million over 6 consecutive days, but whale holdings have surged to 3.03 million coins, marking the fastest increase since February this year. ETFs are selling, whales are buying—it sounds intense, but the truth is that support below 80,000 is thinning—the large buy orders near 80,000 on Binance’s order book have been absorbed, and new orders are all clustered around 78,000; breaking below means a vacuum.
$BTC 80,367 (+0.08%). Whales are divided internally: on Hyperliquid, whale positions have turned net short for the first time since March this year, and some whales are selling BTC to switch to ETH. The 80,000 level is paper-thin, not an iron bottom.
$ETH 2,415.15 (-0.47%). One whale built a $14.76 million ETH position over three days at an average price of 2,352, with an unrealized profit of 477,000; but another whale sold $6.36 million worth of ETH and stETH within 10 hours. Big players are fighting; retail investors should not take sides.
$OKB 111.21 (+0.60%). OKX leads with a net inflow of 445 million, but OKB’s daily trading volume has shrunk to just a few million dollars. X Layer’s gas fees are not flowing back to OKB, so the story doesn’t hold.
Summary: ETFs are withdrawing, whales are rotating positions, and the 80,000 support is thinning. Do you think whales are smart money or bag holders? Will 80,000 hold tonight? Place your bets in the comments!
#ETF与巨鲸资金分化，BTC能否守住8万美元？ His core promises after taking office:
- Replace the SEC's aggressive regulatory team, stop "enforcement-style regulation," and no longer sue exchanges and project teams everywhere;
- Establish a U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserve, and the government will no longer sell confiscated BTC;
- Promote the stablecoin bill GENIUS Act to provide a compliance framework for the industry;
- Slogan: Make the U.S. the global crypto capital, friendly to the industry.
This set of expectations was an important emotional driver behind BTC's rally from the lows and institutions' willingness to enter the market. The market priced it as a certainty of positive news.
2. If he leaves office, there are two layers of impact
Short term (emotional level, fastest reaction)
The market's first reaction would be the fading of positive expectations, "Trump bull narrative falsified," which could trigger a wave of profit-taking sales and bull stop-losses, known as the "Trump trade collapse."
But a key point: laws already enacted (such as the stablecoin bill) will not be immediately invalidated by a change in president; only executive orders and White House working groups can be changed by a new president.
- Bills are passed by Congress and are slow to change;
- Strategic Bitcoin reserve and SEC's lenient guidance are executive orders that a new president can overturn at any time.
Mid to long term, the biggest variable is the stance of the successor
1) If a Democrat with a regulatory bias (similar to Biden's approach) takes office:
Highly likely to tighten SEC regulation again, restart lawsuits against exchanges, reconsider selling the government's BTC holdings, which is bearish and will keep BTC under pressure"Rebound under the shadow of regulation, how far can it go?" The Democrats swept the midterm elections, instantly igniting risk appetite, with BTC returning to 80,000 and ETH surging strongly. But the underlying tone of this rally is not clean.
BTC ($80,284): Standing above 80,000 seems strong, but two major obstacles loom: miner Riot sold 79% of its holdings in Q3 to shift to AI, and the Democrats have historically taken a tough stance on crypto regulation. This rebound looks more like short covering rather than new long entries.
ETH ($2,413): The strongest rebound, with a single-day net inflow of $53.02 million into ETFs providing real ammunition. The key is whether the $2,411 support can hold; the first target above is $2,548, but RSI is already near overbought, so chasing the rally requires caution.
SOL ($96.58): Its high beta characteristic is fully exposed. The rebound is fast, but the drop is also the deepest—SOL fell over 5% during the Binance incident, a larger drop than BTC and ETH, and the spot SOL ETF saw its largest single-day outflow. Until it recovers $100, the structure remains bearish.
Summary: This rebound is driven by fading political uncertainty, but regulatory legislative deadlock and funding concerns remain unresolved. "Sentiment repair" and "structural repair" are two different things. Do you think BTC can hold above 80,000 this time, or will it retest lower before regulatory news lands? Share your thoughts in the comments.
#非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ BTC has rebounded, has the money really come back?
Don't rush to look at the price increase, first look at the funds.
On November 4th, BTC rebounded from around $75,700 intraday to near $80,000.
But the other three sets of data are not so optimistic.
The US spot BTC ETF had a net outflow of about $1.157 billion over three consecutive days before, and although it turned to a net inflow of $35.1 million on November 4th, the scale is still very small.
Fexr data shows that as of 00:00 UTC on November 4th, the combined supply of USDT and USDC decreased by about $772 million in the past 24 hours.
On the other hand, DefiLlama data shows that on-chain RWA Active AUM is about $30.392 billion, with a 0.67% increase in 24 hours.
Looking at these four signals together:
Price has rebounded, ETF has slightly returned, stablecoin supply has contracted, and RWA scale continues to grow.
My judgment: this looks more like a price correction and cannot yet confirm a full return of incremental funds.
Next, watch whether ETF inflows continue and stablecoin supply can stabilize.
Don't take a one-day rebound as the start of a new funding cycle.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC Currently, the market's expectation for a December rate hike is close to 80%, which is already quite high.
Tomorrow's non-farm payrolls are expected to increase by 65,000, while the previous figure was only 29,000.
I think there's an interesting point this time: the market's tolerance for employment data might already be very limited.
If the data is strong, it will further reinforce rate hike expectations, and risk assets will continue to be under pressure. Before the major drop in the US stock market, only two sectors remained in an uptrend: energy and pharmaceuticals.
Currently, the energy sector has also receded, leaving only pharmaceuticals still in a high-level uptrend.
The AI chain has experienced the most severe decline. $SNDK had a rapid increase earlier, but now that it has receded, it is less stable than $SKHYNIX and $MU, the two companies working on HBM. It's quite difficult for flash memory to rebound.
Now carbon-based stocks are bottoming out and recovering, but there is no new story or new capital entering.
Even if there is a rebound, it will need to consolidate the bottom first. I still lean towards this being a rebound. The question is when the last sector hitting new highs will also be crushed.
Although I am in tech, objectively speaking, it is entering a downturn. I will sell during the short-term rebound.
Waiting for the right opportunity to reposition.
#閃迪暗盤暴跌超50%，漲價邏輯遭質疑 Across the past six trading sessions, Bitcoin ETFs have recorded approximately $928 million in net outflows, while Ethereum ETFs have seen around $455 million withdrawn. Although the November 4 rebound offers a positive signal, it is still too early to consider it a meaningful reversal of the broader trend. The biggest concern remains the lack of consistent institutional demand. While Bitcoin continues to attract occasional inflows, repeated ETF redemptions indicate that some investors are reduc#zcash NU7 upgrade expected to lock $16 million ZEC unable to be transferred
【Follow Old Chive Wealth You Have】Old Chive Observation: Zcash NU7 upgrade will lock about $16 million ZEC, the old privacy pool faces an exit countdown!
📊 What impact does this have on the market?
$ZEC: Funds in the old privacy pool cannot be transferred out, which may trigger short-term attention, but this does not mean a reduction in ZEC supply, nor can it be directly seen as bullish. The market should pay more attention to whether the upgrade goes smoothly and the compatibility of wallets and nodes.
Zcash ecosystem: Retiring old privacy technology helps reduce software complexity and maintenance burden; shortening block time also improves transaction confirmation experience. However, during the upgrade, old wallet users and infrastructure service providers need to pay special attention to compatibility.
1️⃣ About 12,200 ZEC face the risk of being unable to transfer out
In the past week, the Sprout pool balance dropped from about 22,263 to 12,226, with over 10,000 ZEC already transferred out.
2️⃣ Having the private key does not necessarily mean transfers are still possible
However, these tokens are not destroyed and still count towards ZEC supply. ZIP 2003 also retains the possibility of restoring access through future network upgrades, but this is not guaranteed.
3️⃣ NU7 not only closes the old privacy pool but also brings performance upgrades
The main changes in this upgrade include:
Block time shortened: from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, aiming to increase block production speed by about 3 times. Conclusion first: On November 4, Hong Kong's Legislative Council passed the draft "Crypto-Asset Reporting Framework (CARF)", requiring exchanges, brokers, and some crypto ATMs to collect customer information and transaction details to report to the tax authority starting in 2027, with annual exchanges based on reciprocity with other jurisdictions starting in 2028. Three key points to watch:
1. The scope is broader than you think. Crypto-to-crypto exchanges are included; "no fiat outflow, just swapping between coins" still requires record-keeping; NFTs that are payable/investable are also included.
2. What must be reported is not just the amount, but also tax residency status + Taxpayer Identification Number (TIN). This is more urgent than penalties—if the TIN is incorrect, it means transaction records are reported to another country's tax authority.
3. Coin prices have not reacted yet. $BTC current price is 80,363, 24h +2.46%; November 4 daily low 75,690, high 81,199. Hong Kong is one of Asia's most concentrated trading markets, but this move is about compliance costs first, not capital outflows; meanwhile, South Korea is pushing crypto tax deferral to 2029.
My approach: first verify the tax residency information and TIN on accounts, keep cost evidence for large transactions; for market makers and arbitrageurs, the real threshold after 2027 will be whether client identities can pass due diligence.
Which jurisdictions do you think will be on the first exchange list in 2028? $BTC #Sony Q2 Operating Profit Grows 45%, Raises Full-Year Performance Guidance Core conclusion first: This time, the "entertainment segment explosion supports the earnings report," while sensors and camera hardware are relatively weak. This is a structural strength, not a broad-based business-wide increase. The raised guidance and dividend increase justify the market's positive feedback, but there are hidden concerns.
Highlights (main drivers behind the 45% profit growth)
1. Gaming G&NS is the largest engine, with profits soaring 82.9%
PS5 hardware plus first-party games and subscription service monetization performed well. Previously, the market worried about weakness in the latter half of the PS5 cycle; this quarter directly dispelled some of those concerns. PS Plus memberships, in-game purchases, and blockbuster titles continue to contribute profits. This segment is now Sony's most stable cash cow.
2. Film business is highly elastic, profits multiplied several times
Mainly driven by the blockbuster box office of "Spider-Man 4," a single hit movie directly lifted the film segment from low profits to high contribution. However, the film business is inherently unstable, driven by single movies, representing a one-time bonus that cannot be continuously replicated.
3. Generous guidance raise and sharp dividend increase
Full-year operating profit guidance raised by 9%, and dividends directly increased from ¥25 to ¥35 (+40%), which strongly attracts long-term capital and is the direct reason for the nearly 5% pre-market surge. Management shows strong confidence in the second half of the year.
4. Music business is steady, streaming copyright income stable, serving as a slow-growth ballast with very little fluctuation.
Shortcomings and risks (can't just look at the attractive total profit)