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What is the MACD indicator? How to use the crossover of the fast and slow lines and the histogram to observe changes in trend momentum?
In cryptocurrency trading, short-term price fluctuations can easily interfere with judgment. MACD is a common trend-following indicator that helps traders analyze trend direction and momentum by observing the crossover of two lines and changes in the histogram. However, it cannot accurately predict every rise and fall, nor is it suitable for use independently of the market environment.
First, what is MACD?
MACD stands for Moving Average Convergence Divergence, with common parameters of 12, 26, and 9. It mainly includes the DIF fast line, DEA slow line, and MACD histogram, used to observe changes in price momentum over different periods.
Second, what are golden cross and death cross?
When the DIF crosses above the DEA, it is usually called a golden cross, which may indicate strengthening upward momentum; when the DIF crosses below the DEA, it is usually called a death cross, which may indicate strengthening downward momentum. However, these signals are lagging and may repeatedly appear in a sideways market.
Third, what does the histogram indicate?
An expanding histogram usually means the gap between DIF and DEA is widening; a shrinking histogram means the gap is narrowing. It can assist in observing momentum changes but cannot alone determine that the price will definitely rise or fall based on the histogram lengthening or shortening.
Fourth, how to improve judgment quality?
Combine price trends, support and resistance, and volume analysis, and observe whether signals are confirmed across different timeframes.#ModernaQ3财报将揭示疫苗销售趋势
#ModernaQ3财报将揭示疫苗销售趋势
$MRNA earnings countdown, this Q3 data significance goes beyond a single quarter's profit or loss.
In the post-COVID era, Moderna has shifted from the high-revenue pandemic phase to a stage focused on multiple respiratory vaccines plus pipeline development. The Q3 vaccine sales data directly reflect the real demand resilience for the autumn-winter vaccination season.
In Q2, there was a net loss of about 800 million, and the market continues to worry about the burn rate. Key points to track in this earnings report:
▪️ Commercial sales performance of COVID-19 and RSV vaccines
▪️ Cash reserves and quarterly cash burn levels
▪️ Clinical progress of mRNA oncology and influenza candidate therapies
Currently, 86% of the community expects the earnings to beat expectations, with the stock price having already risen 3.78%, pricing in these expectations. If the data falls short, profit-taking is likely; if the pipeline releases signals beyond expectations, there is potential for a much larger upside.【In the past 24 hours, 28,700 BTC flowed into exchanges, short-term profit-taking pressure struggles to hold above $80,000】
After $BTC reclaimed the $80,000 level, short-term holders began to cash out, with exchange inflows reaching about 28,700 BTC in the past 24 hours. This is still a large scale; some short-term funds that bottom-fished or chased the rally earlier have chosen to take profits. Every step the price moves up, chips that were previously trapped but just freed may also come out to sell.
According to CoinGlass data, total inflows from short-term holders to exchanges have indeed increased significantly recently, reaching about 28,400 BTC on November 3, approximately 63% higher than the 7-day average. Meanwhile, the US spot BTC ETF saw a cumulative net outflow of about $1.157 billion from October 30 to November 3. With short-term profit-taking and institutional funds withdrawing, the rebound naturally lacks sustained buying support.
However, BTC rebounded from the November 4 low and retouched $80,000, indicating there is still support below. Short-term sentiment is cautious; $80,000 currently looks more like a battleground between bulls and bears rather than confirmed support. If STH inflows continue to decline and ETFs return to net inflows, this rebound has a better chance to develop into a trend; otherwise, short-term funds will cash out on every rally, making it difficult to hold above $82,000.Today's BTC: The 80,000 mark lost and regained 🍕
Yesterday it was flat at 75,700, today it woke up +4%, standing back at 80,000. Looks like a bull retracement, but checking the ledger—530 million short positions were liquidated, 378 million liquidated in one hour, and open interest contracts actually decreased by 4.36%.
To translate: It's not new money buying BTC, it's shorts lining up to be forced out, pushing the price up in the process.
ETFs are more honest, with a net outflow of 1.157 billion over three days, institutions didn't take a single bite.
Now the whole community's hope rests on two things: that 80,000 doesn't fall again, and that ETFs don't keep running out. Tomorrow is Nonfarm Payrolls, next Tuesday CPI; whichever data burns, this BTC will have to be reprocessed. $BTC $ETH #非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ #ETF仍在流入，BTC为何下跌？ The most easily misunderstood point: BTC slid from a local high of about 78,450 down to around 78,000, and many people's first reaction was "the market is about to weaken." But what really matters is who fell more decisively and who is holding firm during this pullback. Guess where the strength and weakness of this sector are hidden in the price difference? My direct impression from watching the market is: this is not a broad retreat, but more like a reshuffling within the sector. The Democrats took the House of Representatives and flipped Senate seats in several key states, with gubernatorial races also likely to pass the majority. This kind of result won't immediately change on-chain funds but will first affect risk appetite—policy expectations become more predictable, and short-term funds are more willing to pick "certain narratives" rather than broad rallies. At the same time, on the 4th, ETFs saw a net outflow of 95M, and BITB inflows of 6.8M couldn't fill the gap, indicating traditional funds are still cautious and not rushing back to support the market. The strength and weakness lie here. BTC is holding steady in a high-level range with a controllable retracement, showing it remains the anchor of this round of risk appetite; ETH follows the drop but with average elasticity, more like passive following rather than leading the rally; altcoins show more obvious divergence, with tokens like ZEC that have independent narratives occasionally stealing the spotlight, but sustainability depends on whether the broader market gives them a window. In other words, the trade now is not about "whether it will rise," but "whether money is willing to move from the safest assets to riskier corners." The bullish path: if tonight at 20:15 ADP employment and 23:00 ISM services PMI do notNo, is this reasonable? The Korean stock market wiped out about 250 trillion KRW in one day, equivalent to approximately $186 billion, with the KOSPI closing down 5.28% near 5383.
SK Hynix fell about 9.5%, Samsung Electronics about 7.6%, with both markets triggering sell-off circuit breakers in turn. Foreign investors net sold about 3.4 trillion KRW in one day. After the Democratic Party took both houses in the US midterm elections, the market began to worry that data centers and AI infrastructure might be restricted, with these two Korean storage giants taking the brunt. During the session, SK Hynix's market value once dropped below 1,000 trillion KRW, and Samsung Electronics almost gave back the 200,000 KRW level.
US stock SanDisk $SNDK is also unsettled. It closed at about $1037 the day before, but the night session already touched near $1010, shaking the thousand-dollar mark. The S&P is still rising, but the storage sector is getting hit.
In the short term, I am bearish on this high-level storage and Korean semiconductor wave. After the blue wave lands, regulatory expectations have not yet been fully priced in, so volatility will likely continue to hit.
For beginners, I suggest watching more and trading less; when buying coins, only buy $BTC 【Circle Mints 10 Billion ARC, Is the Next Move Challenging $ETH?】
The Arc mainnet is now live, with Circle completing the genesis minting of 10 billion ARC tokens. Traditional financial institutions such as BlackRock, Visa, DTCC, and ICE have also participated in building the network. $CRCLB is clearly not content with being just a USDC issuer; it aims to control stablecoins, payments, trading settlement, and the underlying blockchain infrastructure.
Arc's design continues to use USDC for transaction fees, while ARC will primarily handle network security, staking, and governance functions in the future. This means enterprises do not need to hold volatile tokens additionally to use the network, lowering the barrier for traditional financial institutions to go on-chain. The Arc whitepaper plans a distribution of 10 billion tokens, with 60% allocated to the ecosystem, 25% to Circle, and 15% reserved for the long term.
Previously, Circle privately sold 807.5 million ARC tokens to institutions at $0.30 each, raising about $242 million, corresponding to a fully diluted valuation of $3 billion. What truly matters for Arc is whether it can convert USDC's payment volume into its own on-chain business. The transition to PoS in 2027 will be a critical test for ARC's value capture. Circle is upgrading from a stablecoin issuer to a financial infrastructure provider.
#CircleQ3营收超预期，USDC链上交易量增长49% There has always been a misunderstanding: people say stocks are going on-chain, as if tomorrow you could buy Apple in your wallet.
That's really not the case. This time, it's about creating digital twins of already custodied securities, 1:1 correspondence, with dividends and rights unchanged, and transfers only allowed within compliant registered wallets.
To put it plainly, this isn't a token issuance channel for retail investors; it's a railway built for institutions. With $114 trillion in custody, the initial accessible range is about $30 trillion — neither of these scales are already on-chain.
So don't rush to find which coin to speculate on; the first changes will be in collateral management and clearing—those invisible areas.Term Structure Radar
The first-level positive spread for $ETH is very small. The buy near sell far quote spread is +0.34%, with the first-level pair size about $2; at a scale of 10,000, this level only covers about 0.02%. Under small volume, impact will quickly eat up the spread.
For $SOL, the first-level negative spread of buy near sell far is deeper than the mark spread. Near-month annualized +5.51%, far-month annualized +0.48%, the near end is more expensive; mark near-far spread -0.14%, buy near sell far first-level quote spread -1.37%. Replenish the first level before trading.#Oklo核能供电布局距离商业化还有多远？ Oklo is still a whole "regulatory hell" away from commercialization: Aurora has yet to receive full NRC design certification, the 2022 combined license was outright rejected, and it hasn't even entered detailed review. The 2028 operation date seems more like a constantly postponed promise. The four main points of contention are: first, without regulatory approval, talking about commercialization is just nonsense; second, liquid sodium cooling is highly corrosive and flammable when exposed to water, and historically, sodium-cooled reactors in the U.S. have almost all failed, so the technical route has never been validated at commercial scale; third, most of those GW-level orders are non-binding letters of intent and cannot be locked in; fourth, the CEO and CFO cashed out over a hundred million dollars before commercialization, insiders are exiting faster than anyone else. So, to be blunt: no regulatory approval, no technical certification, fake orders, and executives withdrawing—2028 is not an engineering milestone, but a valuation prop.$BTC has returned above $80,000, $ETH rebounded 7% in a single day, and the market is starting to call the bottom again.
But I pay more attention to the trading volume: the price is rising, but funds have not obviously followed, and the recent rebound looks more like short sellers covering positions rather than large-scale spot fund inflows.
This kind of low-volume rebound often lacks sustainability, and once short covering ends, the price may come under pressure again.
My view is simple: don’t mistake a sharp rise for a reversal; a true bottom requires confirmation from both trading volume and capital inflow.
#USJobsReportInFocus Don't be brainwashed by the news from JPMorgan, thinking BTC is about to see a big institutional buying spree.
Farside data shows that BTC spot ETFs have had net outflows for three consecutive days, totaling 1.158 billion, with BlackRock's IBIT seeing a single-day outflow of 95 million. On one hand, forward-looking reports are built into models; on the other, real money is continuously withdrawing from BTC.
JPMorgan only includes BTC in a 10-15 year projection with an annualized volatility of 55%, and it hasn't even been included in the core allocation matrix. This is a long-term simulation, not a call for you to go long BTC right now.
ETH is even tougher. BTC has gained new institutional narrative material, but ETH lacks equivalent positive support. When BTC has small pulses upward, ETH barely follows to catch some of the rally; when BTC funds withdraw, ETH falls even faster.
BTC's current gain is only +0.36%, and the market is already very honest. BTC's long-term story is beautiful, but short-term capital simply isn't buying it.
Many people hold this report and simultaneously bet on BTC and ETH rising unilaterally, completely misunderstanding the rhythm. Institutions look at returns over more than a decade, while you trade short-term BTC and ETH contracts—the logic doesn't match at all.
Going forward, BTC and ETH will still be in a consolidation phase. Positive news is used to lure buyers, but the pressure from ETF outflows persists. BTC struggles to rally, and ETH gets repeatedly harvested along the way.
When trading BTC and ETH, don't use long-term stories as the basis for current positions. $BTC $ETH #BTC进入摩根大通长期预测，机构配置仍谨慎 The Democratic Party took control of Congress, increasing regulatory uncertainty again, but the market did not decline as expected.
$BTC broke through $80,000, but the rise looks more like short covering; ETF funds have not clearly flowed back, and there is still selling pressure around $81,300.
$ETH's rebound is weak, yet whales continue accumulating at low levels, showing a clear divergence between bullish and bearish funds.
$OKB's rise is limited; platform fund inflows have not truly converted into token buying, and capturing ecological value remains a key issue.
My view: a price rebound does not equal a return of funds. What to watch next is not who shouts the loudest, but who has real buying support.
#USJobsReportInFocus Staring at this weekly chart of SNDK, I, the old pig, can basically swear on it: SanDisk, and even the entire storage industry, the weekly and even monthly level pullback is just the beginning. $SNDK
At the 1001.4 level in the chart, the bottom of that previous orange box has been completely stripped away. The weekly moving average system has now all become a heavy burden pressing down, and the lower BOLL band at 979 simply can't hold this level of selling pressure. This big bearish candle smashing down is definitely not the usual shakeout; this is big money decisively retreating, fleeing for their lives.
Many people think that dropping to just over a thousand is cheap and want to reach out to catch it. But in my view, this is purely a misunderstanding of the harsh strong cycle. In the storage business, once the price hike story can no longer continue, the destocking process is like rubbing retail investors down to the ground repeatedly. Last quarter, price hikes still contributed two-thirds of revenue, but this quarter management has directly backed down, guiding down to 40%, with only the phrase "moderate price increases" left in their mouth. Isn't this clearly telling you the engine has stalled? Plus, with Kioxia's price increases sharply dropping and the consumer side basically unable to sell, the fundamental support at the base has already collapsed.
Even institutions like Goldman Sachs and Fuxing are continuously lowering their target prices; big money has long started to revalue. So don't think this is the so-called "golden pit"; the monthly level pullback has just begun, and the most disgusting, most exhausting slow decline is still ahead. $BTC dropped to 77,000, but it’s not because someone is dumping
BlackRock’s $BTC fund had a single-day outflow of $405 million.
More than all ETFs in the US combined.
Where did this money come from:
It’s not retail investors running, it’s institutions rebalancing.
One product alone had such a large outflow, indicating sell orders are concentrated in a few accounts.
How is this number calculated:
Long positions near 76,800 were liquidated.
When the price drops there, the system automatically sells.
Sell orders push the price down further, triggering the next batch to be sold.
In the previous cycle, before the election, there was also a 20% to 50% pullback.
Now the pullback is 39%, within that range.
But this time, what’s being sold are ETF shares, not spot.
ETF redemptions require converting back to $BTC before selling.
This step puts additional downward pressure on the price.
On-chain data shows this movement of assets.
#BTC进入摩根大通长期预测，机构配置仍谨慎 $BTC The phrase "carry forward losses within three years" made me pause even more than the delay. When I last followed policy news, that familiar feeling of first focusing on the grace period and then finding reasons for the market to rally came back. But this time, I care more about whether losses can be recognized by the tax system. Currently, the South Korean government plans to postpone the capital gains tax and is negotiating legislation with the National Assembly; loss carryforward is still just a research direction.
I think this detail carries more weight for ordinary users who hold assets across years and experience volatile gains and losses than simply delaying taxation. Profits and losses in the crypto space don’t neatly align with the calendar: if losses from the previous year cannot offset gains in the following year, then the account may not have truly broken even but could still incur tax obligations first. My judgment is that allowing carryforward can ease this mismatch, but there are still limitations on how long it can cover.
This also makes me feel that, compared to the familiar "slightly looser policy, slightly hotter sentiment" from the last round, this time it feels more like a discussion about the long-term operational rules of the industry. Delays are easily taken as short-term sentiment fuel, but how losses are handled relates to the actual costs borne by users—these two things cannot be mixed.
So I prefer to see it as a step forward in institutional discussion rather than a way to keep the market rally going. Next, I will watch whether the research direction can enter the amendment; I’m not in a hurry to treat the "plan" as an already implemented benefit. #BTC enters JPMorgan's long-term forecast, institutional allocation remains cautious $BTC $ETH BTC entering JPMorgan's long-term forecast, institutional allocation remains cautious—this sentence sounds contradictory but precisely reflects the current institutional narrative. Grayscale research head Zach Pandl pointed out that JPMorgan Asset Management, in its 2027 "Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions," for the first time outlined a return range for Bitcoin: a benchmark compound annual return of about 10% over the next decade, with an annualized volatility of about 55%. In the same framework, the assumption for US large-cap stocks is about 7.5%, gold about 5.5%, so BTC's benchmark expectation is higher; the estimated correlation with US stocks is about 0.33, providing some diversification effect under normal circumstances. However, JPMorgan still excludes BTC from the core covariance matrix for solid reasons: volatility is too high, correlation is unstable, and it is "too early" to consider it a diversification tool in a balanced portfolio. The report also provides scenario differences: optimistic annualized return about 16.6%, pessimistic about -11.2%, with terminal values possibly differing by an order of magnitude. In valuation weighting, money supply and gold substitutes account for about 95%, while network adoption only about 5%—institutions are more concerned with the "currency and store of value" narrative rather than the on-chain application story. The implication for the crypto market is straightforward: being included in the long-term assumptions is a step of institutional recognition; exclusion from the core matrix indicates that long-term funds like pensions and insurance still find it difficult to enter on a large scale. Binance currently reports BTC around $80,600, up about 2.7% in 24 hours; short-term price can follow sentiment, but mid-term valuation anchors still depend on whether more asset managers will move from " Hyperliquid's earning ability has become somewhat frightening.
In the first 10 months of this year, it has already earned $557 million, and its annualized revenue for the past three months has directly exceeded $800 million. What does this mean? Its revenue in the last 30 days is about 1.6 times that of Pump.fun, 13 times that of Aave, and 15 times that of GMX. If compared to the traditional financial market, Nasdaq's Market Services net income for 2025 is about $1.2 billion, and Hyperliquid, based on a simple annualization of the first 10 months, already accounts for 56% of that.
An on-chain perpetual contract platform has already reached the business scale of a mid-sized fintech company.$XRP XRP's strongest point in this wave is that even with 1 billion tokens unlocked and dumped, the $1.25 level surprisingly didn't break.
The buyers below clearly have something; exchange inventories are still flowing out, and chips are continuously moving into cold wallets.
This super supply flood is all being swallowed below, and the bearish pressure can't create a dip.
I'm bullish. Next, it depends on whether the $1.25 defense line can hold. The bears have already played their biggest card once.
#XRP
$XRP
👇Ethereum in $ETH exchanges is being drained by whales.
On-chain supply has directly dropped to 14.5 million coins, hitting a ten-year low. BitMine alone has locked nearly 5% of the entire network's tokens in staking pools, with no intention of releasing them back to the market.
Selling pressure on exchanges has basically bottomed out; bears can't suppress the market even by paying interest. In this spot market drought, any influx of funds can easily cause a price surge. Bears have been holding on hard until now, but they are very likely to be squeezed out one after another.
#ETH
$ETH
👇4 million ZEC were directly withdrawn from the $ZEC exchange, and the on-chain spot liquidity is almost drained.
On the chart, short accounts have squeezed up to 65%, the long-short ratio dropped to 0.54, yet large contract orders are still stubbornly propping the bottom. Shorts are enduring full interest costs daily, holding on to this position.
Only a fool would dump the price to give you free money at this moment.
Spot selling pressure is gone, and shorts are stuck in a crowded zone paying high interest. This is a double squeeze strategy combining spot and contracts.
If shorts don't run now, they will soon face a collective forced liquidation triggered by a sharp rebound.
#ZEC
$ZEC
👇BCH has recently shown a certain strength, mainly driven by the rotation logic among established POW assets. After BTC warms up, some funds look for targets within the same sector that have high recognition and greater elasticity, and BCH often comes into view. Its advantage lies in its historical reputation and the ongoing payment narrative, but the sustainability of its market depends more on incremental capital rather than simply following BTC. If trading volume remains active, the market may continue to trade on catch-up expectations; if volume quickly declines, the short-term heat will also drop rapidly. $BCH$SOL whales have been gradually depositing $149 million worth of spot assets into exchanges over the past 10 days.
The order book is completely dry on the buy side, with glaring selling pressure above. With such obvious spot selling pressure, the market makers don't even bother faking a breakout to trap buyers.
Capital simply doesn't want to play along; rushing to catch a falling knife now could mean there's a basement below.
#SOL
$SOL
👇$FET
AI and blockchain are attracting attention from two rapidly developing industries, but combining them does not automatically create economic value. Fetch.ai's proposition around autonomous agents and decentralized AI infrastructure raises an important question: can these technologies generate meaningful demand for their services? Real applications, developer participation, and sustainable token utility will be more convincing than AI-related market narratives.With the new Congress officially taking office in January 2027, investigations into the Trump family's crypto business are expected to begin as early as February 2027. Before that, the market will preemptively trade this "political negative," and WLFI and Trump-related tokens (such as $TRUMP ) will face significant emotional selling pressure.
Long-term uncertainty: Although Trump can still use his veto power to counter Democratic legislation, ongoing congressional hearings, document subpoenas, and media exposure are enough to cause irreversible damage to the credibility of his business empire. #非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ $BTC $ETH $DOGE
Dogecoin has something many newer projects struggle to build: strong brand recognition and an established community. But popularity alone cannot guarantee sustainable demand. Its longer-term utility depends partly on whether payment adoption expands beyond speculation and social-media attention. The interesting question is whether DOGE can turn cultural relevance into consistent economic activity.
3. $LTCThis round for DOGE is more like a typical sentiment recovery rally. After mainstream coins warm up, funds start to look for highly recognizable resilient targets, and DOGE naturally gets noticed. Its advantage lies in its large community size and low barrier to dissemination, making it easy to amplify discussion when the market heats up; but precisely because of this, short-term trends often depend more on overall market sentiment and capital rotation rather than on on-chain fundamentals. The key observation is whether trading volume can continue to expand. If it only follows the market rebound, it may still return to consolidation later. $DOGE#CircleQ3USDCVolumeUp49%
Circle's Q3 revenue rose 17% to $865M, but ARC token sales contributed $181.8M—masking weaker underlying performance.
USDC volume reportedly jumped 49%.
📉 Ex-ARC revenue fell ~8%, while reserve income declined 8% to $658M.
Market impact: Lower interest rates could pressure reserve income, while stronger USDC adoption could offset that weakness. The Binance hack also adds regulatory scrutiny around stablecoin controls.
$CRCL $xCRCL The new members of Congress haven't even taken office yet, but the reckoning has already begun: $WLFI and $TRUMP need to repay debts, and $BNB might even be involved.
Garcia, expected to take office as the House Oversight Committee chair in January next year, has already warned Trump's family to "go hire lawyers"; Warren, likely to take over the Senate Banking Committee, has repeatedly publicly called WLFI transactions corrupt.
The main issue is that WLFI and TRUMP are indeed not clean:
1. The UAE invested $500 million to buy WLFI shares, with the money flowing directly to Trump's family. Subsequently, the U.S. government approved the sale of advanced AI chips to the UAE.
2. Reports indicate that Trump's family profited billions of dollars from tokens like TRUMP and WLFI.
Therefore, WLFI dropped nearly 10% yesterday, with no volume or support—a typical death trend. TRUMP fell even more, by 20%, showing no rebound ability, with even whales opening large short positions.
Because of close cooperation with USD1 next door and CZ receiving a pardon, BNB might also be implicated.
Fortunately, BNB has a large market cap and strong fundamentals, so it’s not afraid of this minor negative news.
BNB is holding above the 200-day moving average at 700u, with support around 708. The RSI is about 55, neutral to slightly strong. The 730–760 range is a resistance zone, with high-level box consolidation and relatively strong resistance to market downturns.
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权
After the Democratic Party won control of both houses of Congress in the 2026 U.S. midterm elections, the AI industry faces short-term headwinds with mixed long-term impacts. Cryptocurrencies are also likely to face short-term pressure, but Bitcoin's resilience is expected to be stronger than Ethereum and other altcoins.
Main impacts:
Stricter AI regulation: Data privacy, copyright, and model security regulations may tighten, increasing compliance costs for tech companies.
Pressure on data center expansion: Electricity prices, energy consumption, and environmental reviews may become stricter, putting pressure on the high-speed optical module, server, and data center construction supply chains.
NVIDIA, AMD, AAOI: Short-term valuations may be under pressure, but AI computing demand will not disappear immediately due to election results.
Nuclear energy companies (OKLO): Stricter data center approvals may slow nuclear power project commercialization, but clean energy support policies could also bring opportunities.
Cryptocurrency legislation: The previously stalled CLARITY Act may face renegotiation, with Democrats more likely to emphasize consumer protection, conflicts of interest, and financial regulation.
Short-term headwinds for high-growth stocks like AAOI and OKLO, with relatively limited impact on leaders like NVIDIA. On November 4, U.S. stocks overall actually rose, while some data center stocks declined.
The key is Democratic control of Congress, but Trump still holds presidential veto power, so AI regulations may not be implemented quickly. CryptoBoost founder says Bitcoin bear market has lasted 396 days
According to ChainCatcher, the founder of CryptoBoost posted that the current $BTC bear market began on October 6, 2025, at the historical peak, and has lasted 396 days as of the time of posting, slightly exceeding the average 391 days needed to bottom out since the 2014 bear market. In terms of historical retracement magnitude, the 2014 bear market saw a maximum drop of about 86%, 2018 about 84%, 2022 about 77%, while the current retracement is about 53%, relatively mild. $ETH $ZEC
He stated that with the increase of spot ETFs, enterprises, and institutional participants such as funds, the market's position structure may become more stable, thereby reducing the extent of declines. BTC whales have been continuously accumulating since July. However, the cycle time reaching the historical average does not mean the bear market is over; BTC still needs to retake and maintain above the $80,000 to $82,000 range to further confirm the market trend. He also cited recent market changes such as the decline in US tech stocks and semiconductor sectors, capital shifting to bank stocks, the Dow Jones rising after the US midterm elections, and falling oil prices as context, suggesting that Wall Street's capital flow is currently unclear, and BTC may be at the tail end of the bear market cycle.On November 5th, gold surged sharply, with spot gold breaking through $4130/oz and the main contract of Shanghai gold surpassing 880 CNY/g. The core trigger was not a Fed pivot, but the clarity of the US midterm election results: the Democrats took control of both the House and Senate. The market expects a "divided government" to limit fiscal expansion, causing the US dollar index and Treasury yields to fall simultaneously, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold; oil prices also plunged, easing energy inflation pressure, temporarily loosening the "inflation–tightening" chain weighing on gold.
Fortunately, the underlying support remains: in Q3, global central banks net purchased 321 tons of gold, a 42% year-on-year increase, with the People's Bank of China increasing holdings for the eighth consecutive quarter; gold ETF holdings rose to a historic high of 4256 tons. After the sharp drop, physical buying absorbed the sell-off, providing short-term funds room to enter.
However, Jin Cheng reminds that this looks more like an emotional recovery after a sharp drop, not a trend reversal; the probability of a rate hike in December remains about 80%, Treasury yields have fallen but remain high, and the suppression of gold by real interest rates has not been systemically lifted. The next key event is Friday's nonfarm payrolls: weak data would continue the rebound, strong data might cause the event-driven gains to be given back #非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ It currently feels more like digestion after an airstrike. Yesterday, the ETF finally turned positive, with a net inflow of about 75 million — FBTC is absorbing aggressively, while IBIT is still selling; don't mistake this for institutions buying wildly across the board. Money is starting to flow back, risk sentiment has eased a bit, and the price of $BTC is hovering around 80,000 near those two daily moving averages. It doesn't feel like a bottoming process; after the squeeze, someone is absorbing and gathering strength. The mid-to-long term is very clear: buy the dip!!!The market $BTC is rising, while $TRUMP has led the decline for two consecutive days. Coinglass reports 1.26, down 16.3% in 24 hours, down 73.7% since the beginning of the year, and 98% off its all-time high. According to Seoul Economic Daily, it and WLFI are the two worst performers in the top 100, with the political meme sector shrinking 16% in one day.
The reason for the sell-off is straightforward. The Democrats took control of both chambers, and Robert Garcia, expected to serve as chairman of the House Oversight Committee, has threatened to investigate the "Trump crime family," advising them to "hire good lawyers." However, the new Congress won't convene until January, and legislation still has to pass presidential vetoes, so the current sell-off is based on expectations.
Derivatives are much hotter than spot. Contracts traded $1.04 billion in one day, while spot is only $170 million, with open interest at $168 million, nearly half of the market cap of $353 million. Binance accounts have a long-short ratio of 1.41, OKX is as high as 2.29, and the more it falls, the more people buy the dip. Liquidations in 24 hours reached $6.33 million, with longs accounting for $5.01 million; those bottom-fishing have already taken a hit.
Supply is also heavy. 73% has been unlocked, but only 282 million are circulating, with the majority still held in team wallets. About 900,000 tokens are expiring today.
What this coin lacks is not good news, but bulls giving up. The long-short ratio dropping back near 1 and open interest shrinking means the new low of 1.22 might be the bottom; if the price goes down but open interest rises, it means some are still catching the falling knife, so another round of long liquidation is not surprising. Only by climbing back above 1.49 will the election shock be considered digested. #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 The snapback in US equity futures is doing the heavy lifting across digital assets, but the move looks more like a pressure release than a new regime. Nasdaq futures swung from a loss of more than 2% into positive territory, and S&P futures clawed back a 1.4% decline. That rapid V-shaped repair pulled risk appetite back from the ledge and gave crypto an external tailwind it did not have hours earlier. $BTC is holding above its four-hour Bollinger mid-band at 78131. The immediate floor sits at 77@八佰哥爱理财 Recently, this blogger doing SOXL has become very popular, and many fans have come to ask me if he is really reliable?
Let's not talk about anything else first; let's understand the details in the two pictures:
He is trading 10x leveraged SOXL perpetual contracts, not the US stock 3x leveraged SOXL ETF. These two are completely different products with vastly different risks.
The original US SOXL is a 3x leveraged semiconductor ETF that resets leverage daily; whereas the crypto SOXL perpetual contract is a contract with 10x leverage and has a liquidation mechanism.
He is currently showing screenshots of unrealized profits, which look very attractive, and his goal is to earn 1 million USDT.
But everyone must remember one thing:
Unrealized profits in contracts do not equal realized gains. Unrealized profits are just numbers on paper; if the market quickly reverses and crashes, 10x leverage can wipe out all profits in minutes, or even cause liquidation.
He keeps shouting long on semiconductors, only showing profitable trades, and rarely talks about the corresponding risks behind them.
I'm not saying he definitely has problems, but as ordinary retail investors, we must have the ability to discern:
If someone only shows profits, exaggerates return expectations, and rarely fully discloses risks like liquidation, drawdowns, and leverage decay, you must be extra cautious.
SOXL itself is extremely volatile, and adding 10x leverage leaves very little room for error.
It's fine to speculate on a rebound, but don't just blindly follow others shouting long.
Think carefully about your stop loss and position size, and whether you can bear the losses—that is the most important.I've never quite understood: a chain run by an exchange itself has only $1.07 billion locked, so how does the cumulative trading volume reach $120.46 billion? Later I realized these two are fundamentally different. TVL is the money lying inside, while trading volume counts how many times the money circulates. Robinhood users buy stocks without mining; the money comes in, circulates once, then leaves, so the pool is shallow but the turnover is fierce. Uniswap running $100 billion in 125 days follows the same logic. What really settles is lending; $MORPHO alone has $582 million, accounting for half a chain. $UNI earns from transaction fees, $MORPHO earns from interest—two different lifelines.#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权
Asian Stock Market Breakdown (November 5, 2026): KOSPI Circuit Breaks, Hong Kong Stocks Surge, A-Share Stocks Celebrate?
Today in Asia, on the surface, markets seem to be going their separate ways, but underneath, they share the same thread: the AI hardware regulation sword is hanging overhead, but each market is digesting it differently.
KOSPI is the most honest, just lying flat.
KOSPI closed down 5.28% at 5383.80, with foreign investors net selling 3.42 trillion KRW in a single day. Samsung fell 7.57%, SK Hynix dropped 9.46%, triggering circuit breakers in both major markets.
But the money hasn't fled; entertainment and culture rose 4.7%, IT services up 4.5%, biotech collectively surged, Samsung Epis up 14%, SK Biopharmaceuticals up 12%. The funds pulled out from AI hardware flowed into defensive and storytelling sectors.
Hong Kong stocks took a different path: the index violently recovered, but southbound funds are running out.
The Hang Seng Index closed up 3.67% at 24796.98, Hang Seng Tech surged 5.55%, Alibaba up 8.45%, Tencent up 7.17%. Strangely, southbound net selling was about HKD 20 billion throughout the day, completely diverging from the index's strong rise and capital outflow.
A-shares are the liveliest, but the index is the most deceptive.
The Shanghai Composite Index only rose 0.10%, yet 4869 stocks in the entire market advanced, no limit-down stocks, with an 87% gain rate. Photovoltaic equipment surged 6.23% hitting the limit-up wave, precious metals up 5.19%, semiconductor main forces net inflow of 5.656 billion still ranked first, while communication equipment, oil & gas, and coal sectors were drained.An exchange's own public blockchain has only $1.07 billion locked in, yet the cumulative DEX trading volume has reached $120.46 billion. When these two numbers are placed side by side, many people's first reaction is that there must be a calculation error. Actually, they represent different things: TVL is the money left on the chain, while trading volume is how many times the money has circulated.
The mainnet has been online for 125 days, and Uniswap alone has processed $100 billion, accounting for over 80% of the entire chain. The structure is fragile, with traffic concentrated at a single entry point. $UNI earns fees, not loyalty. Users come to trade stock tokens, then leave after exchanging; the chain is just a channel.
What truly stays are loans. Top locked assets: Morpho $582 million, Uniswap $280 million, Lighter $112 million. $MORPHO alone accounts for more than half of the locked funds. In the phase without incentives, only scenarios with real interest can retain funds.
The official side is still adding fuel. Together with Arbitrum, they have set up a $1.8 million funding pool, a 12-week mentorship program, with a maximum of $100,000 per project, ending December 6. $ARB here is not a speculation object but a dependency of the settlement layer.
Tokenized US stocks are the real variable: the official statement says Stock Tokens are tokenized debt securities, not open to US residents, and also restricted in Canada, the UK, and Switzerland. The core assets supporting $120 billion are in a no-go zone in half of the mainstream markets.Did Team Trung sell Bitcoin after losing in the US midterm elections?
Did Trump's team sell Bitcoin because they feared investigations from the Democrats controlling the House and Senate?
An hour ago, a wallet associated with Team Trung Media transferred 4,200 Bitcoins to an exchange, worth about $350 million.
Two years ago, Trump had many supporters, but now, after two years of various troubles, many no longer like him. $BTC BitMart has been shut down since August, but it continues to be targeted by hackers. This time, there are suspicions that it is related to the Mercado Bitcoin collapse, which resulted in nearly $49 million in Bitcoin losses!
On November 3rd, founder Sheldon Xia confirmed that the exchange was hacked. Bitquery found that about $391,000 flowed from wallets associated with BitMart to an address also involved in the Mercado Bitcoin hack. $BTC
What’s even more concerning is that Sheldon himself admitted the security team is severely understaffed. Are these two exchanges targets of the same hacker group, or is it just a coincidence? What do you think?$FIL Recently, the US stock market's soxl and storage-related sectors have been bleeding heavily, but last night, major cloud service providers like Microsoft surged? Why? Because after the Democrats took control of both chambers, it will no longer be so easy to get approval for new data center construction. So the existing large service providers have become highly valuable, essentially holding a license. Similarly, fil's existing computing power and storage are aggressively seizing the opportunity to break through. 🈶 More people using it?$SNDK Looking at SanDisk (SNDK) on the screen, I gasped sharply. This is not a mere pullback; it's like being rushed straight into the ICU. As I just lamented: "Falling to this level is no longer just a valuation kill."
[Technical Aspect: Losing the 1000 mark, weak oscillation]
Looking at the 15-minute chart, the price has plummeted from 1155, crashing through the 1000 integer barrier like a waterfall, now barely clinging around 1013. The moving averages are in a bearish alignment, pressing down like Mount Tai. Although the MACD formed a golden cross below the zero line, its strength is very weak, not even reaching the 1023 (MA60) resistance above. This is purely a dead cat bounce after an oversell. If it breaks below 990.8, it’s an abyss.
[Product Cycle: AI halo fading and cycle peaking]
SanDisk is a pure NAND storage manufacturer. Recently, expectations were fully boosted by AI computing power demand, but the earnings per share (EPS) beating expectations turned into a "death sentence" upon release. The core issue lies in the product cycle: Kioxia warned early that NAND price hikes have sharply cooled (dropping from 70% to 25%), with weak demand compounded by inventory pressure, indicating the storage cycle bottom is far from reached.
[Data Game: Retail investors crazily catching falling knives]
Switching to chart 2, I felt a chill down my spine. Bullish accounts are as high as 90.22%, with a long-short ratio of 9.22! Despite the price falling like this, retail investors are blindly bottom-fishing. In behavioral finance, this is called an extreme herd effect. The market manipulators see this 90% opposing side; they will never let the price rise without completely washing them out and driving them to despair. #US Midterm Elections: Democrats Gain Control of Both Houses of Congress
Senate about 54 seats, flipped 7 Republican seats: Texas Talarico 59.2% over Paxton, Ohio Brown 48.6% narrowly defeated Husted, Maine Jackson ended Collins, plus North Carolina Cooper, South Carolina, Kansas, Iowa; Michigan El-Sayed held. House of Representatives already locked in over 219 seats, passing the 218 threshold.
The only person the crypto world really needs to watch: Warren takes over as Chair of the Senate Banking Committee. TD Cowen's judgment is that this is the worst for crypto — CLARITY will likely be delayed for two years, with hearings and subpoenas becoming routine. Ironically, the crypto sector spent $176 million this round, including $30 million in Ohio trying to block Brown, but Brown still won and may even become Chair of the Agriculture Committee.
No need to be entirely pessimistic: the GENIUS stablecoin law remains unaffected and will take effect as scheduled on January 18 next year; the SEC, CFTC, and veto power remain in Trump's hands until 2029; CLARITY still has about a 60-day lame-duck window, and if delayed until January 3 next year, it will become void.
$BTC 80620, 24h +3.3%, on election night it briefly dropped below 76,000 then pulled back above 80,000. I think I know why Hang Seng Tech has been sluggish.
You can tell just from the Wuzhen Internet Conference, whether it's the companies or the conference itself, it's like a small-town New Year celebration, getting worse year by year.
Back in 2017, what was everyone watching? It was "Dongxing Dinner Party."
At the dinner table, 16 people basically represented the top internet tycoons and investment giants in China at the time. Everyone gathered, chatting and laughing.
What do we see in 2026? Internet celebrities and actors representing the scene.
Does this have anything to do with the internet? If live-streaming sales count, okay, then maybe a little.
But compared to the Dongxing Dinner Party, can these be considered figures of the same caliber?
As for those figures back then, their vigor is long gone.
Policy pressure, industry competition, sluggish consumption—what kind of meal is that? Who has the mood to eat?
Tencent, Kuaishou, Meituan, I'm talking to you.
When there are no tigers in the mountain, monkeys become kings. If the big shots don't come to the table, isn't it just little rascals causing trouble?
So, now you know why Hang Seng Tech isn't doing well, right? Haha.Circle Earnings Report: Revenue Surges, Profit Takes a Breather, How Long Can the $182 Million "Extra Income" Last?
After Circle's Q3 release, the stock rose 2.77% pre-market. Revenue hit $865 million, up 17% year-over-year, which looks impressive on the surface. But a closer look reveals some hidden issues beneath the sweet coating.
The highlight is the core business: USDC on-chain transaction volume soared 49% year-over-year, indicating real expansion in stablecoin payment and usage scenarios.
The problem lies in profits: net profit only increased 5%, lagging behind revenue growth; more critically, reserve income was dragged down by falling U.S. Treasury yields, dropping 8% year-over-year to $658 million. The engine of earning passive interest is slowing down.
So what drove the revenue beat? The Arc blockchain network token pre-sale contributed a one-time $182 million, essentially a booster shot for the earnings report. The market is currently focused only on the "revenue beat," but tends to overlook the sustainability of this incremental income.
Short-term chasing of highs should beware of pullbacks after the positive news is priced in. For $CRCL $xCRCL, what really matters going forward is whether USDC trading activity can take over and whether reserve income can stop declining. #CircleQ3营收超预期，USDC链上交易量增长49% What can push $ETH up if it doesn't break 2450? I shorted at 2424, and my old short at 2231 is about to be freed from loss.
The 2450 line has been pressing down all day; four attempts to surge were all pushed back, with volume weakening each time. Is this a breakout? It's a bull trap to unload. Your short entry at 2424 is aggressive, almost stepping on the MA7, but the comfortable one is the old position at 2231—held for so long, finally seeing the dawn of relief. Don't rush to close it; this downward space isn't finished yet.
RSI stuck at 50.3, neither up nor down, looks neutral but actually the bulls are out of strength. The upper Bollinger band at 2467 is the ceiling area. The funding rate at 0.0095% shows bulls are still paying protection fees; no one wants to actively push the price up. This grinding top structure of ETH will likely retest the MA25 support at 2398, or even probe down to the Bollinger middle band at 2366.
My strategy: hold the short at 2424 firmly, set stop loss above 2460 without hesitation; reduce half of the old position at 2231 near 2310 to take profit, and see if the rest can reach 2280. Anyone chasing longs now is just carrying the shorts. Before 2450 breaks, any rebound is an opportunity to add shorts. Yi Lihua said that $BTC needs to strongly break through 82,600 to have a second main upward wave.
Don't look that far ahead yet; there's a closer gate ahead: 81,944.
On October 30, the day Binance was hacked, Bitcoin touched 81,944 at midnight, then dropped to 76,472 ten hours later. Starting from October 23, in 13 days it surged above 81,780 on 5 days, reaching a high of 82,048, but never closed above it on any day.
Now at 80,500, it is riding right on the 4-hour EMA200 (80,475). From midnight until now, 12 hours, it has only fluctuated between 79,903 and 80,941, with the 4-hour volume shrinking candle by candle.
On Hyperliquid, that 40x back-and-forth 0x4b62 went long at 7:25 this morning, closed the position at 10-something making $39,700 profit, then at 10:26 reversed to short 67.9 coins at 80,704.
His new liquidation price: 81,943.8.
That peak on October 30: 81,944.4.
His account was $408,000 24 hours ago, now $202,000.Rushed up to 81,190 this morning, now at 80,300.
700 points off, didn't touch the 50-day moving average (81,933).
This is the first real resistance encountered in this rebound. Previously, from 76,664 upwards, there was hardly any resistance because short squeezes don't need a reason. But above the 50-day moving average is the cost zone for those who entered in the last two months, where there is real selling pressure.
Also, a figure released this morning: ADP private employment 86,000, expected 75,000.
Employment is stronger than expected. If tomorrow's non-farm payrolls are similar, the expectation for a December rate hike will be firmer.
The market is now betting on a December rate hike — this is a stone on top of the rebound.
Another risk few mention: Democratic control of both houses is not friendly to crypto. They were the ones blocking the CLARITY Act before, and now they call the shots.
So my view remains unchanged: this is a correction, not a reversal.
I won't add positions before tomorrow's non-farm payrolls.
How much of your position do you have now?
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 Trump loses both chambers, crypto market first falls then rises? Understand it all in one article (๑•̀ㅂ•́)و✧
Conclusion first: Short-term sentiment is bearish, mid-term is more likely neutral and volatile; "fall first then rise" seems more like a rhythm, not a one-sided trend, so don't rush to bet on a big surge or crash (￣▽￣)~*
Trump was originally crypto-friendly, and the market expected the Republican-controlled Congress to push forward relaxed regulations like the "Clear Act." Now that the Democrats have taken both the House and Senate, the legislative direction is stricter, but Trump still has presidential veto power, so both sides will check each other.
Scenario 1: As the news just landed, funds worry that Democrats will tighten regulations, restrict stablecoins, and strengthen SEC enforcement, so BTC and ETH might first experience an emotional sell-off with increased volatility (｡•́︿•̀｡)
Scenario 2: The more likely mainstream scenario in the next 1–4 weeks — Democrats can propose strict bills but find it hard to gather two-thirds votes to override vetoes; Trump wants to push relaxed legislation, but Democratic Congress resists, leading to back-and-forth tugging and volatile game.
Scenario 3: (Low probability long-term path): The two parties remain deadlocked, new regulatory legislation stalls, SEC and other agencies may slow enforcement pace, the industry stays in a regulatory gray zone; after negative news is digested, if funds flow back into risk assets, the market could recover (๑•̀ㅂ•́)و✧
Reminder: The above is just a market review thought process, not any trading advice. Please view rationally and control risks~
$BTC $ETH
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权
#非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？