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Today, the top spot on Polymarket's daily leaderboard is held by an address called 0xa2, with a paper profit of $917,000. The numbers are dazzling, but it's more worth looking at another set: an investment of $609,600, a current position value of $1.48 million, of which about $860,000 is still waiting on the final Alaska result.
This is exactly where prediction markets are most easily misread. After the Democrats took both chambers, his bet that "the Republicans will not win any Senate swing states" had a position price rise to 87%. Many people take 87% as "already won," but in probability contracts, that is just the price the market is willing to transact at that moment, not the settlement result. The price dropped overnight from 87% to 70%, shrinking the paper profit, but you haven't locked in a cent.
Compare that to another of his bets: betting on the Democrats winning the Texas Senate seat, which has realized a profit of $106,100. The $106,100 is certain, the $860,000 is floating, an eightfold difference, but the risk lies with the latter.
The leaderboard itself is also misleading. The top ten daily profits all exceed $170,000, making it look like everyone is making money, but the leaderboard only shows addresses with the highest floating profits, not those who bet wrong and lost their positions. Survivorship bias is especially pronounced in probability markets because floating profits can be very high, and wiping them out only requires a small 14% probability event.
So the real highlight of this position is not the $917,000, but whether he is willing to reduce his position before the votes are counted. In the end, what you are gambling on is not probability, but luck.$NEAR NEAR The most noteworthy move this time is that a whale directly sold 2.48 million spot tokens around $4.1, cashing out about $10.28 million, and then immediately opened a short position.
This operation really says a lot. Those holding the tokens are eager to sell off, and after selling, they even press down with a short.
How much spot buying pressure is needed to hold up? The order book isn't that deep. For a short-term rebound, I currently don't see much confidence.
#NEAR
$NEAR
👇ETH is currently stuck around 2,280, unable to go up or down, the market is quite conflicted. Above, 2,309 is the on-chain average cost line; repeated probes over the past two days have been pushed back, showing strong selling pressure. Below, 2,250 is temporarily holding, but not comfortably.
What’s really interesting is the battle over capital. The US spot ETF saw a net outflow of over 1.6 billion in October, with BlackRock alone pulling out 1.4 billion, and Coinbase premiums are also negative, indicating US funds are withdrawing. On the other hand, whales are buying against the trend in the 2,270-2,290 range, with some days seeing net purchases over 34 million, and some buying nearly 63 million in 5 hours, with costs concentrated near the current price. Institutional channels are bleeding, while big off-exchange money is stepping in; neither side is yielding.
The leverage structure is unhealthy. On Bitfinex, the long-short ratio has crashed to 97 to 3, retail stubbornly going long, but some large traders have closed over 170 million long positions and opened shorts at 2,280. On Hyperliquid, two billion-level long liquidation prices are concentrated between 2,170-2,180; a further drop of about 6% could trigger liquidations. The narratives of Devcon 8 and Fusaka upgrades remain, but in the short term, the market is dominated by capital and leverage. The 2,298-2,341 range is a hard ceiling; only a volume breakout above it is worth discussing, otherwise the whales’ cost zone will be the next test.一篇持仓监测帖提到，某合约账户当前同时持有 BTC、ETH、SOL 空单，整体仓位价值约 9721.47 万，账面浮动收益持续改善，并持续收到资金费。三笔仓位的收益结构并不完全相同。 BTC 空单为 -141.7 BTC，采用 10X 全仓，仓位价值约 $1114.5 万，开仓价 $79472.8，浮动收益约 +$11.62 万，资金费收入约 +$14.61 万，保证金约 $111.45 万。 ETH 空单为 -2379.98 ETH，同样是 10X 全仓，仓位价值约 $555.7 万，开仓价 $2421.64，浮动收益约 +$20.64 万，资金费收入约 +$29.31 万，保证金约 $55.57 万。 SOL 的杠杆更高，为 20X 全仓，持仓 -4.33 万 SOL，仓位价值约 $407.48 万，开仓价 $103.9029，浮动收益约 +$42.86 万，资金费收入约 +$6.45 万，保证金约 $20.37 万。 💡 我的看法。 这组数据最值得注意的地方，是 BTC 和 ETH 的资金费收入分别高于浮动收益，而 SOL 的浮动收益明显高于资金费收入。资金费确实改善了账户表现$ZEC Short is long, long is short
[Hardcore review of this "extreme short squeeze situation"]:
Look at this 15-minute chart, it shot straight up from 1120 to 1324, now oscillating high at 1279. Although MACD shows a death cross sign at the high level and the red bars are shortening, look at the data in chart 2 — short positions account for a staggering 68.99%! The long-short ratio is only 0.45!
This is definitely a spectacle in the crypto world. Retail investors see it rising and think "it’s risen too much, time to short," crazily trying to top-fish against the trend halfway up the mountain. Coupled with negative funding rates, this nearly 70% short position is the purest "rocket fuel." The main players just need to ignite a little fire, and these shorts will cascade liquidate, forced to buy to cover, directly pushing the price to soar further.
[Macro logic and advice]:
During the US election period, big funds seek safety, and speculative capital rushes into established privacy coins like ZEC to play the short squeeze. Extreme shorts must reverse; the bulls only need a gentle push.
However, the 15-minute level is already high now, so don’t get overheated chasing longs at market price. Wait for it to pull back without breaking the moving average (around 1240) before entering on the right side, or just watch the 69% shorts get slaughtered by the main players.After the Democrats swept both chambers, Friday's non-farm payrolls become the biggest variable. I bet on a "mildly weak" outcome, with crypto first watching 76k
#美国10月非农前瞻：就业增长或牵动12月加息预期
The midterm elections concluded with the Democrats taking both chambers.
The short-term market has already recovered from the plunge, pricing in "whether Trump can still veto and that short-term policy won't change drastically."
Therefore, US stocks and crypto haven't collapsed, but this rebound is more of an emotional recovery rather than a trend reversal, with resistance still at 79.5k-80k above.
Now the market focus has shifted to Friday's non-farm payrolls.
I judge employment will most likely fall in the 50k-70k range, with unemployment rate steady, overall "neither strong nor weak."
Basis: ISM manufacturing at 55.5 shows demand is decent, but the price index remains high at 75.2, core PCE at 3.1%, employment is hard to expand strongly; meanwhile, after a large downward revision last month, the base is low, so it won't collapse again.
If data is close to or slightly stronger, the probability of a December rate hike remains high, US Treasury yields stay strong, the dollar stable, US stocks and BTC will fluctuate mildly weak in the short term, hard to sustain an upward attack.
If significantly weaker than expected, rate hike expectations will fall, risk assets will see a rebound window, with crypto showing greater resilience.
Operation advice:
Before the data, keep BTC and US stock positions controlled below 50%, avoid heavy positions.
$BTC reduce positions near current price to below 40%. Focus on 76k. Light short if it breaks below 76k, target 75k; if data is weak but rebounds and effectively holds above 76.5k, light long positions.
US stocks: reduce tech stocks on rallies, wait for non-farm payrolls to land before deciding direction, do not take heavy positions in advance. 先说结论。中期选举的悬念落地，民主党把两院都拿下了，价格先砸到 75,700，随后被买回 7.8 万上方。这个反弹我认，但比特币我不追——它现在卡在月度中枢的上半区，推它的是选举日买看涨期权的钱，不是链上真金白银在接。本轮我的仓位放在三个地方：XRP 做多、SOL 做多、ZEC 做空。 上一轮 3 选的成绩单摆这儿：BTC 做多 78,095.50 开、现价 78,150.39，+0.07% 拿着，止盈 79,506.25 止损 77,249.05 都没碰到，方向命中；ETH 做多 2,301.06 开、现价 2,320.29，+0.84%，同样没碰止盈也没碰止损，命中；XRP 做多 1.2743 开、现价 1.2828，+0.62%，命中。三笔全对，命中率 100%，一个止损都没被打掉。行情给面子的时候不多说，接着干活。 本轮 3 选第一个，XRP 做多，开仓 1.2822，止损 1.2640，止盈 1.3125。它连着两天收涨，现货产品累计吸金破了十亿，交易所存量还在往下走——筹码是真被买走的，不是杠杆堆上来的。账户多空比 2.12 没进极端区，这个位置我加一档常规仓位。 第二个，SNOW is being unreasonable tonight.
Only at 19:00 did it close at 297.6, just 0.4 away from the 24h high of 298.02, still looking like it wants to go up. At 20:00, in eleven minutes, 148.79 contracts were dumped, more than five times the 28.21 contracts of the previous full hour candle, pushing the price from 297.2 down to 278.33, swallowing the bullish candles of 18:00 and 19:00 and even going lower.
$SNOW
Current price is 282.77, down 1.06%, with the MA20 at 291.73 pressing down about nine dollars overhead. The 4.5-point lower shadow at 278 indicates some buying, but it's a quick stab, not a trend—after the dump, the price climbed back to 283 but stalled, failing to even reach 285 on the rebound.
The US stock market opens at 22:30; before that, these are just warm-up prices.
If the rebound fails to break through 286.5~287.5 and the 1H candle closes bearish with volume (≥60 contracts), short with a stop loss at 289.0 and a target of 278.33, risk-reward ratio 4.4.
If it closes above 291.73 with volume (≥80 contracts) reclaiming MA20, go long on a pullback to 290~290.5, stop loss at 288.3, target 297.80, risk-reward ratio 3.3.
Between 287.5~291.7, no action.
(Not investment advice, trade at your own risk) Trump concept coins dropped about 7% in one day, while the DeFi index rose about 5%.
The election results are in; it's not the "whole market" that's rising, but a shift in sectors.
After the Democrats took control of Congress, BTC briefly dropped to about 75,600, then pulled back to about 78,300. The market looks green, but the contracts are more painful: trading volume rose about 27%, open interest only rose about 3%—mostly position flipping, not fresh capital entering aggressively. The weekly options volatility dropped from about 41% to about 34%, and the pre-election "insurance buying" is cooling off.
Retail investors, don't rush to treat the rebound as a trend confirmation. Take away these three steps:
1) Check if open interest keeps up with price (price rises without OI support tend to be false)
2) Distinguish who's rising: DeFi/ETH-related vs political concept coins, don't chase both mixed
3) Watch Friday's non-farm payrolls—election drama is over, macro data is the next trigger
The election narrative will be noisy for a few days, but what really matters is: first distinguish between "position rotation" or "position increase." Is your current position following the narrative or the capital?
$BTC $ETH #crypto market $AMD just swallowed a cold meal, watching AMD's 15-minute chart break through the 500 mark from 534, with MACD forming a high-level death cross, chilling the heart halfway. The earnings report clearly exceeded expectations in both revenue and profit, so why is it moving like this?
The problem lies in the details. The Q4 gross margin guidance is slightly low, and more critically, to stockpile Helios, free cash flow plummeted from 1.5 billion to 554 million. At a high valuation of 125 times P/E, the market demands "perfection," and the crack in cash flow directly triggers a trust crisis.
Technically, the moving averages above are like a mountain pressing down, and around 490 below is a dense area of bearish options, making the short-term outlook extremely dangerous. We just suffered losses catching falling knives on AKE, so don't blindly bottom-fish. Wait for solid Helios shipment data, stabilize on the right side, then get on board. For now, watch the show to stay safe! $AMD
#AMD数据中心收入近翻倍，营收及指引均超预期 Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？ This hot topic reflects the market's scrutiny of capital flows in the crypto ecosystem. As SOXL is a highly volatile asset, current capital sentiment is clearly cautious. My overall judgment is short-term pressure, with a rebound needing sentiment recovery.
From the perspective of capital and positions, the 24-hour trading volume is 15,623,000. Although the price rose 2.9% to 73.92, the buy-sell ratio in the top 10 order book levels is only 0.34, with sell orders at 9,591 outweighing buy orders at 3,225, showing a clear seller-dominated pattern; the funding rate of 0.0321% indicates longs are still paying a premium. The open interest of 859,000 coin-margined contracts, combined with a downward trend on both the 1-hour and 4-hour charts, and a 31.27% drop from the 4-hour high, indicates leveraged longs are being gradually squeezed out.
In terms of operation, aggressive traders can wait for a rebound near 76.85 to lightly short, with a stop loss at 79.45 and a target of 68.35; if the price pulls back to 66.52 and stabilizes, one can reverse to a short-term long, with a stop loss at 65.13 and a target of 71.28. Position size should be controlled within 20%, and it is crucial not to hold positions during the double downward trend.
——This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you smooth trading.——
$SOXL#Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？
#Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？
$SOXL $CXMT current price is $6.577, up 11.9% in 24 hours. The underlying stock Changxin Technology closed today at ¥44.09, up 13.63%, with a market cap of ¥2.99 trillion, topping the Greater China region (Phoenix Finance). But three numbers are more important.
① Discount 0.5%: Based on 6.6715, the underlying stock equals $6.61, while the perpetual contract at $6.577 is actually half a cent cheaper.
② A-shares closed at 15:00, perpetual contracts did not stop: the 15:00 candle closed at 6.509, now 6.577, rising 1.05% after close—this overnight risk no one bears for you.
③ No leveraged longs taking over: at 13:00 and 14:00, two 1H candles saw volume expand to $2.75 million and $5.2 million (4x and 7.5x), open interest only rose from 3.71 million to 3.76 million; funding rates for four periods dropped 0.116%→0.054%→0.034%→0, long position cost zeroed out.
Wallet: OKX has no CXMT spot pair, only a 20x perpetual contract entry, with 24-hour volume of $19.3 million and open interest only 3.79 million; the 20-level order book has just $40,000, so liquidation slippage is the cost. The buyback cap was raised to 5 billion, setting a record on the STAR Market; HBM3E samples have been sent, but Morningstar warns of cyclical risks.
Do you think this is the start of a super cycle or the last leg?看着ETH在2300下面反复磨，真的有点心累🌙 是不是很多人也在这个位置被来回甩过？ 前两天我就是那个把七成仓位压在ETH上、等它突破2300的人。结果呢，曲线横着走，插针倒是来得勤快，账户先亏了15%。说不难受是假的，但冷静下来复盘，我发现这波真正值得看的不是"ETH怎么还不涨"，而是市场在重新给事件定价。 2300这个位置本身没变，变的是围绕它的预期。之前大家把突破当成大概率，仓位提前压上去，等于把一部分上涨空间先吃掉了。现在价格反复磨，其实是在消化这批提前进场的筹码。多头逻辑还在：ETH作为风险偏好回升时的核心资产，一旦真突破，空头回补加上追涨盘，弹性会很大。但风险也明摆着——预期被提前计价之后，如果迟迟等不到催化，耐心会先于价格崩掉，杠杆仓位被磨出局，反而给下方制造压力。 这个传导会往下走。ETH横着，山寨就更难拿到溢出资金，短线交易节奏从"追突破"变成"等确认"，风险偏好是在收缩而不是扩散。BTC那边相对稳，说明钱没有离场，只是变得更挑剔了。这层变化很多人容易忽略：不是没钱，是钱不愿意在不确定的位置先动手。 所以我现在的判断是，2300没站稳之前，重仓等突破性价比不高，突破Let's talk about NEAR ($NEAR) tonight.
As of 20:08 Beijing time on November 4, NEAR is trending on CoinGecko's hot search list. OKX spot price is about $4.05, up about 4.8% in 24h, with a total network transaction volume of about $698 million and a market cap of about $5.3 billion.
The hype comes from inflation reduction: On November 2, House of Stake passed HSP-029 with over 99.9% approval. The maximum annual issuance rate will be reduced from 2.5% to 1.6% over 24 months, and daily issuance will drop from about 89,500 to about 57,300 tokens.
My view: Less dilution is definitely a good thing, but it still needs to pass the Security Council review, a 90-day buffer period, and validator upgrades. The first reduction will most likely happen in early 2027. The current price increase is based on expectations. I am more concerned whether NEAR Intents cross-chain transactions can support real transaction fees—that is the real confidence.
$NEAR$SOL $BTC 🔥 The dust has settled! The old man lost, the Democrats took both chambers, uncertainty is resolved, funds are starting to flow in, but do not mistake the rebound for a bull market
$BTC $ETH $CRCL
The election suspense that lasted for many days has finally been resolved, no more prolonged disputes and tug-of-war. The market's biggest fear, uncertainty, has been directly eliminated, and funds have chosen to enter first: Bitcoin surged to 78,549, ETH reached 2,330, with a short-term increase of nearly 3%, and gold returned above 4,000; MSTR closed up 3.72% last night, Circle rose 4.36%, clearly showing capital inflow in the market.
But warming up does not equal a trend reversal. This rally is essentially an emotional recovery after clearing uncertainty plus a short-term short squeeze. The bullish momentum has been rapidly exhausted. The 4-hour indicators have entered the overbought zone, and the 15-minute cycle shows a bearish divergence. The price seems strong, but the incremental buying below has long been unable to keep up. The short squeeze lacks follow-through and can easily dissipate quickly.
There are still two major tests to watch:
✅ Tonight's Circle earnings report: As a core stablecoin sector stock, it will show whether the stablecoin narrative can translate into real profits, directly affecting capital preference in the stablecoin sector;
✅ Friday's non-farm payroll data is still lurking ahead, which is the next major variable in this round of the market and a potential risk point.
My judgment: Short-term emotional warming is a fact, but one bullish candle does not mean a bull market. Bitcoin must firmly hold the 78,000–79,000 range to be considered truly stabilized; before that, it can only be defined as news-driven.$ETH $BTC 🔥 The dust has settled! Trump lost, Democrats took both chambers, uncertainty is resolved, funds are starting to flow in, but don't mistake the rebound for a bull market
$BTC $ETH $CRCL
The election suspense that lasted for days has finally been resolved, no more prolonged disputes and stalemates. The market's biggest fear—uncertainty—has been directly eliminated, and funds are choosing to enter first: Bitcoin surged to 78,549, ETH reached 2,330, with a short-term increase of nearly 3%, and gold returned above 4,000; MSTR closed up 3.72% last night, Circle rose 4.36%, clearly showing capital inflow on the market.
But warming up does not equal a trend reversal. This rally is essentially an emotional recovery after clearing uncertainty plus a short-term short squeeze. The bullish momentum has already been rapidly exhausted. The 4-hour indicators have entered the overbought zone, and the 15-minute cycle shows a bearish divergence. Although the price looks strong, incremental buying from below has long been insufficient. The short squeeze lacks follow-through and can easily dissipate quickly.
There are still two major tests to watch:
✅ Circle's earnings report tonight: As a core player in the stablecoin sector, it will show whether the stablecoin narrative can translate into real profits, directly affecting capital preference in the stablecoin sector;
✅ Friday's non-farm payroll data is still looming ahead, which is the next major variable in this round of the market and a potential risk point.
My judgment: Short-term emotional warming is a fact, but one bullish candle does not mean a bull market. Bitcoin must firmly hold the 78,000–79,000 range to be considered truly stabilized; before that, it can only be defined as news-driven.#CFTC首次放行美国个股永续期货
"US Stock Perpetual Futures Approved, Castle Securities Files Lawsuit"
CFTC has just approved US stock perpetual futures, with the first batch being Nadex's filings for Apple, Nvidia, and Tesla, cash-settled and with no expiration date.
Now the traditional market makers can't sit still.
Cboe and Citadel teamed up the same day to sue the regulators, fiercely challenging the product's regulatory classification. Traditional Wall Street has enjoyed decades of options expiration day profits, but now it looks like the crypto world's perpetual model is about to disrupt that. $BTC Before you panic sell or bottom-fish, here’s what you need to know:
1. Nasdaq futures fell 1.35% overnight amid the Texas governor race. Futures. Light trading. 2 AM.
2. Fear: A new governor in the state "freezes" data center construction. What the governor alone can do: pick grid regulators (must be confirmed by Texas Senate), push grid operators, veto bills.
3. What requires the legislature: cancel data center tax incentives, rewrite grid laws, any moratoriums. Earliest to become law: around September 2027.
4. Texas had already started squeezing data centers before tonight. Grid access for large new loads was suspended months ago.
5. SpaceX’s launch licenses are federal, not Texas.
6. xAI’s computing resources are in Tennessee and Mississippi. Both red states. Not Texas.
7. Congress is very likely to overturn this too. A blue Congress can hold hearings on SpaceX. Without presidential signature, they can’t cut SpaceX’s funding. Overriding the president requires two-thirds majority in both chambers.
8. SpaceX executed 161 of 195 FAA-licensed launches last year. 83%.
Headline risk is real. Most business risk is noise.
Washington may change. But demand for SpaceX won’t.
If it opens green, that’s a discount, not a change in the argument. Always hold ✊$SPCX Circle Q3 report released: total revenue plus reserve income reached $865 million, up 17% year-on-year. USDC's average daily circulation for the quarter was about $73.3 billion, ending at $73.9 billion; on-chain transactions totaled $13.9 trillion, up 49% year-on-year.
Don't just focus on total revenue. Of the other income of $207 million, about $182 million came from the one-time ARC token presale. Reserve income was $658 million, down 8% year-on-year, dragged down by falling interest rates. The numbers look good, but that doesn't mean the surge in float has already supported all the profits.
If USDC circulation falls below $70 billion within two weeks, or if other income significantly shrinks next quarter and reserve income continues to decline, treat this as a presale pulse rather than a fundamental shift in USDC. Snapshot around 20:02 Beijing time, Binance USDC about $1.001.
$USDC
#USDC #Circle #stablecoinCore data analysis of BTC whale positions, 79200 is the key level, bears gather!!!
BTC perpetual current price 78445.60, increase of 1.98%, total whale traders 1239, total positions 3.92B, nominal long-short ratio 23.54%.
There are 300 long whales holding 747.74M, average entry price 84449.85, unrealized loss of 57.23 million USD, profit ratio 54.33%, high-level trapped positions remain heavy.
There are 939 short whales holding 3.17B, position size far exceeds longs, average entry price 75996.95, after this round of price rebound, short unrealized loss expanded to 99.13 million USD, profit ratio dropped to 39.29%.
As the price rises, short pressure increases rapidly, a large number of low-position ambush shorts are trapped; although longs are also at a loss, this rebound slightly alleviates the trapped pressure. Whale camp shows obvious divergence, shorts have a large base but are now passively pressured, longs have high costs with limited upward breakout momentum. The short-term market enters a key battle position, with short liquidation liquidity stacked above, the sustainability of the rebound requires continuous observation of volume, chasing highs risk gradually rises, not suitable for aggressive opening.
For market review reference only, does not constitute any trading advice🚨 Bitcoin doesn't care who wins the election; what it truly cares about is the flow of funds!
On election day, Bitcoin couldn't even hold above $78,000. Now, BTC is hovering around $77,000, and the market is sending a signal that can't be ignored. ⚠️
📉 Fear and Greed Index: 33 — Fear
💥 Total liquidation amount: $282 million
🔻 Long liquidation amount: $211 million
But what really deserves attention is...
Everyone is focused on the U.S. election, debating whether the Democrats or Republicans are better for the crypto market.
The fact is: a political victory doesn't automatically mean funds will flow into Bitcoin.
The CLARITY Act remains stuck in political deadlock. Even if control of Congress changes, crypto regulatory issues won't be resolved overnight.
Meanwhile, institutional funds are sending different signals:
🔴 In nearly 6 trading days, Bitcoin spot ETF funds have seen a net outflow of $859 million.
🔴 BlackRock IBIT had a single-day outflow of $233.7 million.
🔴 Since 2026, the cumulative net inflow of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs has turned negative.
Whales may be buying, but institutional investors remain cautious.
🔥 The key level BTC really needs to watch next:
The $76,000 support zone is critical.
If BTC holds this level, a rebound to $78,000–$80,000 is still possible.
#DailyOrbit Hong Kong today opened up the ledger of crypto transactions but did not add new taxes
The Legislative Council passed the CARF bill on November 4. Crypto service providers associated with Hong Kong must register with the tax authority and report customer transaction information annually starting January 1, 2027
From 2028, this information will begin to be automatically exchanged with partner jurisdictions. The revised CRS will take effect the same year
The key point is no new tax types are added, only increased visibility. Transactions previously hidden in exchanges will now be reconciled annually
The cost of compliance is registration and reporting; the cost of non-compliance is being seen by the whole world together
#HongKong #CARF #Crypto #TaxOracle's AI cloud business is growing rapidly and plans to raise $20 billion for expansion, indicating that AI computing power capital expenditure is still accelerating, indirectly supporting Tesla's autonomous driving computing narrative. However, in the short term, funds prefer cloud and chip targets that benefit directly. I maintain a cautious bearish view on TSLA. The price has dropped from 409.17 to 377.38, down 6.2% in 24 hours, running close to the low point on the 1-hour chart. Although the 4-hour chart is still in an uptrend structure, it has given back more than half of its gains; the top 10 order book shows 39 buy orders and 9 sell orders, with a buy-sell ratio of 4.45 indicating support at low levels. The funding rate is 0.0000%, and open interest is 43,000, showing a cool leverage sentiment and no overheating of bulls. Operationally, one can lightly try going long at 378.24 with a stop loss below 374.65 and a target of 391.83; if the rebound stalls near 391.83, reverse to short with a stop loss at 396.42 and a target of 377.85. Keep single position size within 20% and strictly stop loss.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wish you successful trading. —
$TSLA#甲骨文AI云业务高速增长，拟融资200亿美元支持扩张
#甲骨文AI云业务高速增长，拟融资200亿美元支持扩张
$TSLA Tonight's key focus is the ADP small non-farm payrolls, a critical juncture. The market generally expects new job additions to drop to around 70,000. Data below 70,000 is bullish for gold, potentially triggering a direct surge towards 4080. Data above 70,000 is bearish for gold, likely causing gold prices to spike then retreat, with a secondary dip testing support near the previous low of 3842. If the trend meets expectations, it will likely return to technical consolidation, and the market will quickly enter a wait-and-see mode ahead of Friday's major non-farm payrolls.
The four-hour rebound momentum is quite sharp; avoid blindly opening positions before the data. If bullish and it breaks through 4080, wait for a pullback and stabilization before entering. If bearish, a direct decline is possible. Risk control remains paramount. This coincides with the winter time release at 21:15, when spreads tend to widen and volatility increases, so strict stop-losses are essential. $BTC $XAUT $ETH #AMD数据中心收入近翻倍，营收及指引均超预期 #Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？ #Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？ 10 月 9 号那一轮，全网爆仓 11.91 亿。我拉了币种明细，愣了一下：ETH 自己就占了 3.56 亿，BTC 才 2.98 亿。 ETH 市值大概是 BTC 的五分之一，爆仓额却比 BTC 还多 0.58 亿。这数字反常识，但想一层就通了。这跟跌多少没关系，跟上面压了多少杠杆有关系。 BTC 你敢开三倍五倍，ETH 敢开十倍二十倍。倍数越高，离强平线越近。跌的时候，先死的总是杠杆最挤的那个。我记得 21 年那轮，自己也犯过这个错——当时觉得 ETH 是老二，应该比那些小币稳，后来才明白，一个币稳不稳，跟它排第几没多大关系，看的是它上面压了多少杠杆。 有人算过那轮的账：按市值折算，ETH 每 10 亿市值被清掉约 120 万美金，BTC 才 18 万，差了差不多 6 倍。说白了同样一千亿的盘子，ETH 里爆出来的水是 BTC 的六倍。 这事儿今天也没结束。 过去 24 小时，全网又爆了 3.8 亿，其中多单 3.4 亿，占快九成。也就是说，这轮被强平的主要还是杠杆多头——现货那边反而在观望，没怎么砸。 但有个细节更值得盯：未平仓The top 1 and top 6 whales on the $ETH Hyperliquid leaderboard have directly lost nearly 300 million USD worth of ETH short positions.
With such a huge position pressing down, it's clear they are betting on the spot buying drying up.
The funniest part is that the funding rate is still positive now; the longs are all holding on desperately, paying interest to these shorts every day.
Currently, the market doesn't even have a decent rebound, relying solely on the previous low at 2171 to hold strong.
As soon as this level breaks, it will trigger a chain liquidation of longs, and below will be a vast ocean, just enough for the whales to eat well, close their positions, and leave.
#ETH
$ETH
👇$UNI hacker smashed all 7.02 million stolen UNI into ETH, forcibly creating a nearly $40 million spot gap.
The most extreme part is that the victim now has no choice but to grit their teeth and buy back on the secondary market to replenish the inventory. On the market, there are large buy orders hanging stubbornly at the 6.8 level every day, the hacker's selling pressure has just been eaten up, and this tens of millions of rigid buyback demand is about to take over and enter.
The shorts have been hammering on this iron plate at 6.8 for a long time without success, and they still have to face the obvious rally buying behind it. Once forced into a liquidation stampede, this level could bounce up in minutes.
#UNI
$UNI
👇$HYPE USDT — Hyperliquid
HYPE is trading at $86.778, up 1.97%, with a 24-hour high of $87.90 and low of $80.92. Price is above MA5 at $86.348, MA10 at $85.089, and MA20 at $81.799, suggesting improving momentum.
Next Move: A breakout above $87.90 could target higher resistance, while losing $84 may weaken the setup.
TG1: $88.00
TG2: $92.00
TG3: $97.00#SonyQ2GamingAndMusic A message that looks like a "loss" actually didn't rule on anything.
The U.S. Second Circuit Court of Appeals dismissed the injunction requests from Coinbase Financial Markets and Kalshi. An injunction is not a judgment; it is a temporary relief: you have to prove "irreparable harm if not stopped," and the court found this step was not met. The dismissal means procedurally there is no need to hit the brakes, not a substantive decision on who is right.
The court clarified: this ruling made no decision on the substantive issues of the appeal, nor did it require the platforms to stop trading or close existing positions. Trading continues as usual, positions remain, accounts will not be frozen. For position holders, the real impact is close to zero.
The real battlefield is at the state level. This round of cases involves enforcement of prediction markets by Connecticut and New York, involving Coinbase in Connecticut, and Kalshi in both Connecticut and New York. State regulators classify prediction markets as "gambling," while platforms insist they are derivatives; this classification dispute is the real line between life and death. The injunction dismissal only means the tug-of-war will continue for a long time, not that anyone has won.
For large assets like $BTC and $ETH, this news hardly constitutes a pricing factor. What really needs attention is the platform-side business model: whether prediction markets can be compliant and launched in the U.S. determines the ceiling of this sector for the next few years.
The same product is called gambling in two states, treated as derivatives at the federal level—who will make the final call?20261104
5. People are starting to get scared, how much will this wave see?
1. A couple of days ago, BTC was around 77400, and on the same day the fear index dropped from 51 to 30, the lowest since mid-August. 51 means not panicking, 30 means starting to get scared.
2. The sentiment has changed, so the target must change too. Originally, this wave was targeting 75800, now it’s adjusted to 73000, moved down a bit.
3. 75800 is the first line; if it falls there, it might not hold. If it doesn’t hold, then it’s time for 73000, only about 3 points difference in between.
4. Around 73000 is the average buying price for everyone in the past six months. If it falls there, everyone who entered in the past six months is at a loss on paper, and those losing are the most likely to sell.
5. 30 is just fear, not the worst fear yet, so first watch if 75800 can hold; if it can’t, then look at 73000.
6. Saylor says the Bitcoin bull market has arrived, do you believe that?
1. This year, the coins he holds increased by 26%, about 840,000 coins in total, but the coins held by those who can buy his shares decreased by 3.7%. Coins are increasing, shares are decreasing. Because the money to buy coins comes from printing new shares, newcomers share together, the pie hasn’t grown, your slice just gets diluted.
2. Don’t take the 20.9 billion profit on his report seriously; that’s a paper number calculated from coin price increases, no coins have been sold.
3. The core: the more coins he buys, the more diluted your slice becomes.$HYPE SHORT SETUP
HYPE is showing negative momentum near 84.450. Failure to reclaim 84.70 could favor further downside.
Entry: 84.45–84.75
TP1: 83.80
TP2: 83.15
TP3: 82.50
SL: 85.30
Confirmation: Bearish CHoCH and resistance rejection.#SonyQ2GamingAndMusic $COIN
Will industry security concerns bring market share opportunities or shared pressure to Coinbase?
Users might re-evaluate custody and compliance capabilities, or overall reduce crypto trading. Relative trust advantages do not necessarily mean industry revenue will grow.
If net inflows improve while subscriptions and custody remain stable, resilience is stronger; if trading volume and client assets shrink together, relative advantages may still be offset by cyclical pressures, so benefits cannot be inferred solely from competitors' troubles.#CFTC首次放行美国个股永续期货# This regulatory breakthrough is favorable for risk appetite and aligns with Bitcoin's macro linkage logic. I judge the short-term bias to be bullish, but the upside is constrained by the four-hour downtrend. Bitcoin current price is 78459.4, up 1.9% in 24 hours. After holding the low at 75690.1, it is still 7.16% below the four-hour high. The one-hour downtrend remains unchanged, indicating a corrective rebound; the top 10 bid-ask ratio of 2.56 shows buyers dominate the order book, the funding rate of 0.0071% is neutral, open interest at 36,000 shows no overheating from chasing longs, sentiment is cautious. Strategy: lightly go long on a pullback to 77685, stop loss at 76840, target 79360; if it rallies to 79620 and stalls, consider reversing to short, stop loss at 80240, target 78310. Single position size should not exceed 20%, exit immediately if broken.
——This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wish you successful trading.——
$BTC#CFTC首次放行美国个股永续期货
#CFTC首次放行美国个股永续期货
$BTC The election results are out, the Democratic Party took control of both chambers. Without discussing who is good or bad, at least the "uncertainty" is over.
The market reaction was very direct: BTC at 78,549, ETH at 2,330, both up nearly 3%, gold also pulled back above 4,000, MSTR rose 3.72% last night, Circle up 4.36%, money is starting to move.
What people feared before was not who would win, but the deadlock, the fear that no result would come out. Now that the result is clear and clean, with uncertainty gone, funds dare to enter the market.
There is still a small test tonight: Circle's earnings report. It is one of the few companies in the crypto space with real revenue. Whether the stablecoin story can turn into profit is worth watching, as it concerns whether the stablecoin sector can continue to be viable.
My own view is that there is a recovery, but don't call it a bull market just because of one bullish candle. BTC needs to hold above 78,000 or 79,000 to really be considered recovered. Let's see if it can hold in the next couple of days.
How many days do you think this recovery can last?
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 $BTC $ETH $CRCL $XAUT From the current market situation, gold continues to rise relying on a strong bullish candlestick. The long position strategy given publicly at 4010 in the afternoon has been steadily realized, successfully securing a 40-point profit. The market has formed a consecutive bullish structure with strong upward momentum, currently in a slow rising phase, and no tail volume signals have appeared yet. However, supported by continuous bullish candles, a volume surge and accelerated upward movement are expected later. Slow rise is also an increase; short-term priority is to be bullish.
The 4-hour bullish rhythm is steady. After each short pause and slight pullback, a new stage high can be created. The stepwise upward movement gradually recovers previous decline space, and bullish momentum is released steadily. After consolidation, the market shows no obvious weakening, maintaining a short-term strong pattern with room for further gains. The trading approach remains unchanged, continuing to wait for pullback opportunities to go long.
Evening gold trading strategy: buy on pullback between 4030-4020 with a direct target at 4100 据链上调查员ZachXBT披露，一个欧盟实体在多家交易所的账户遭窃，损失高达1.06亿美元。被盗资金正迅速转换为以太坊（ETH）和门罗币（XMR），这是攻击者常用的混淆资金流向的手法。该事件凸显了针对高净值个人和机构的攻击日益复杂化。 作案手法：交易所账户被攻破 尽管细节有限，但模式表明攻击者可能通过钓鱼、SIM卡交换或凭证泄露等方式，有组织地入侵了该实体的交易所账户。资金快速转移至ETH和门罗币，显示其洗钱策略准备充分。门罗币的隐私特性使其成为隐匿赃款的理想选择，而ETH则提供深度流动性以便进一步兑换。 ZachXBT的介入凸显了独立区块链调查员在追踪非法资金方面日益重要的作用。他们的公开披露往往能促使交易所和执法机构迅速行动，但一旦资金进入隐私币，追回难度极大。 行业影响：安全漏洞与监管审查 此次事件引发了对中心化交易所安全状况及其KYC/AML控制是否充分的严重质疑。即使有严格的KYC，攻击者仍可利用账户接管漏洞。欧盟的MiCA法规对托管和运营韧性提出了严格要求，此案可能成为其面临的首个重大考验。 交易所责任：交易所是否会赔偿受害者？多数服务条款对账户被盗免责，但声誉损失可能迫Trezor CEO说，买BTC ETF不等于真正拥有BTC。ETF规模越来越大，这句话是在提醒风险，还是在否定机构化？ 一、新闻。据公开报道，Trezor CEO Matěj Žák表示，BTC ETF提供便利，但投资者没有私钥控制权，因此与直接持有BTC不同。与此同时，Mercado Bitcoin确认约4,600万美元安全事件并暂停提款，市场再次讨论托管与自托管的风险边界。BTC报77,091.9美元，近一周跌4.3%。 二、资金影响。BTC ETF最新披露单日净流入3,410万美元，5日净流入4.065亿美元，10日净流入1.736亿美元。ETF仍是机构进入BTC的重要通道，资金规模也没有消失；但ETF份额、托管安排和申赎机制，使投资者承担的是产品结构风险，而不是直接持币风险。 三、BTC含义。机构化提高了BTC的可及性，却没有消除对手方风险。交易所事件提醒市场，便利、流动性和控制权不可能同时最大化。ETF适合需要证券账户和合规通道的资金，自托管适合强调控制权的持有者，两者不是同一个风险产品。 四、观察指标。我接下来盯四个指标：一是核心ETF是否持续净流入；二是ETF溢价与申赎Capital and Macroeconomics
The core driver of this rebound is sentiment recovery rather than capital returning. The expectation of a Democratic Party sweep in the midterm elections has eased regulatory concerns in the crypto industry. Trump has stated he will respect the election results, the market holds hope for the resumption of peace talks with Iran, and 10x Research head Thielen bluntly said, "Bitcoin is currently oversold and should rebound." However, Democratic control of Congress is unfavorable for pro-crypto legislation, and regulatory uncertainty remains unresolved.
The order book structure remains a risk: previously, the 15-minute buy-sell ratio dropped as low as 0.22, with sell orders clearly dominant. The sell order at 77,327 accounts for 49.1% of the total sell volume, and the shallow order book amplifies short-term volatility. Whether the volume of the V-shaped rebound is genuine depends on sustained buying above 78,500 to confirm it. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #BTC现货ETF资金流出，企业财库增持放缓 Last night, there was a direct major turnaround in both houses of Congress. Wall Street has actually already started quietly pricing in the new rules. Do you think the market is scared or secretly relieved by this change of power?
To put it simply, the White House will find it much harder to pull off big moves going forward. The previously biggest concerns about reckless borrowing and blind tax cuts are very likely to be blocked, and the Federal Reserve's independence is actually preserved. This kind of bipartisan gridlock, although it slows policy progress, at least helps the financial market avoid many of the worst pitfalls.
What’s next?
The US stock market definitely won’t just crash unilaterally; it will become polarized and fragmented. AI computing power will face stricter scrutiny in the short term, so things might get tough. But sectors relying on policy support like new energy and medical insurance subsidies might actually rebound.
The crypto space will suffer. With the Democrats controlling the Senate Banking Committee, the previously hoped-for regulatory easing is completely off the table. Compliance costs will only rise, so don’t expect any policy tailwinds to boost the market anytime soon. The market mainly depends on whether the macro faucet opens or not.
As for the turnaround in US Treasury yields and the surge in gold, it’s all capital seeking safe havens. Since policy frictions are increasing, physical assets definitely look more attractive.
Do you think the Federal Reserve will speed up or slow down rate cuts because of this election?
DYOR
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 The cost of taking the wrong political side is that the market votes with its feet.
In this election, Musk spent heavily supporting the Republican Party. Now, the Democrats have taken control of both chambers. What does this mean? This is called "a new official's first three fires," and most likely, this fire will burn Musk. $SPCX $TSLA
As shown in the picture, before the election, the Democrats had already hinted at investigating him and government contracts. Now that they hold power, Tesla's FSD (Full Self-Driving) will inevitably face stricter regulatory scrutiny, and those high-value government contracts between SpaceX and the Department of Defense will likely be examined under a magnifying glass.
Capital fears this kind of uncertainty the most. Even if the market is recovering, funds will first avoid such "high-risk targets." So while others rebound, he plunges—this is entirely due to the surge in regulatory risk premium.
This also serves as a reminder for us: the same applies in the crypto world. Now that the Democrats have full control, whether our over 200 million in political donations will buy us goodwill is still unknown, but the expectation of tighter regulation is definitely on the way. Don't catch these politically risky flying knives; keep your cash steady and wait until the overall environment becomes completely clear.For the crypto community, BTC is the most sensitive to liquidity expectations. Often, prices will trade in anticipation of interest rate cuts or easing before the actual funds have truly entered. Conversely, if employment data is strong and rate hike expectations rise again, short-term volatility will also be significant. #Solana稳定币卡月消费额创新高 Data shows that the monthly spending volume of Solana ecosystem stablecoin cards reached $141 million in October, a sevenfold year-on-year surge, setting records for four consecutive months, indicating continuous acceleration in on-chain payment adoption. The core advantage lies in Solana's fast transfers and low fees, making it suitable for stablecoin daily payments. Combined with multiple crypto card products and cashback promotions attracting users, it opens channels from USDC and USDC to Visa/Mastercard merchants, allowing on-chain assets to be directly used for offline consumption, representing a genuine user adoption signal.
However, the market needs to distinguish that this spending volume mainly flows to card issuing service providers and will not directly convert into SOL block rewards. The short-term benefits are more emotional. At the same time, regulatory variables must be faced; if US crypto regulation tightens, such payment services are likely to face compliance constraints. Additionally, industry competition is fierce, with Ethereum and Polygon also developing similar payment cards, so the growth is not an exclusive benefit.
In terms of market trends, this data is a long-term fundamental positive factor but is unlikely to independently drive a major surge in SOL price. The price mainline still follows the overall market, interest rate expectations, and capital sentiment. Future focus will be on tracking user retention, transaction frequency, and regulatory policy changes to judge whether the payment sector can continue to scale.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC The most dangerous thing when a rebound approaches the next barrier is to treat the target price as a pass.
Caleb expects $BTC to first test liquidity near 79,000, then possibly face resistance and retest 77,600; he will not change the overall plan until the daily candle closes back above 81,000. This is his conditional path, not a sequence of three price levels that will all be realized, nor is it a market movement that has already occurred.
Kraken quotes about $78,527, which has not yet reached his mentioned upper observation level. My personal market observation is to not write the latter half of the market story yet: if after a spike the hourly close cannot hold and the rebound lacks strength, I will increase caution for a retest; if the upper level is effectively reclaimed and the pullback holds, then "inevitable resistance" can no longer be used as a reason. Larger cycle adjustments require looking at daily conditions separately.
My judgment is that short-term continuation of the rise and mid-term strengthening require different evidence. For now, I do not chase untriggered targets, nor do I prematurely short just because a retest might happen. Repeated boundary tests most easily consume capital; I prefer to do less rather than maintain original judgments by expanding tolerance. When reaching the observation level, will you first look at the hourly close or wait for the pullback to be supported? This is just for exchanging views and does not constitute investment advice.Old Leek Observation｜$RUNE: Rebounded nearly 15% after halt, is this a bottom-fishing opportunity?
THORChain recently experienced a multi-chain transaction suspension. On October 31, Ethereum underwent a block reorganization, causing an issue with THORChain's refund logic where a 10 ETH deposit was refunded twice, triggering automatic risk control and suspending multiple cross-chain transaction routes.
On November 4, after the v3.21.1 update, most cross-chain transactions resumed, and RUNE rebounded accordingly.
Market snapshot: price around $0.63, 24-hour increase about 13%, 7-day performance still nearly flat
Market cap about $207 million, 24-hour trading volume about $191 million, TVL about $62.37 million
This rebound has clear catalysts, but I do not think it can be directly interpreted as a fundamental reversal.
There are three reasons:
First, recovery does not mean full recovery.
Currently, networks like $ATOM, BSC, and $SOL are still suspended, and some nodes have not completed upgrades.
Second, THORChain's transaction volume needs quality assessment.
Q3 cross-chain transaction volume was about $3.82 billion, but some transactions were affected by hacker fund flows. Abnormally large funds cannot be directly counted as healthy user growth.
Third, RUNE's value capture mechanism has changed.
The protocol's own liquidity receives 20% of system revenue distribution, while RUNE's direct burn ratio has dropped from 5% to 1%.Judging the cycle phase, the best signals are: bullish moves that can't push higher and bearish moves that can't push lower.
Bullish moves that can't push higher:
Trump's SOL token issuance, volume increases but price doesn't rise, then peaks;
Micron reports nearly 90% gross margin, cycle peak surges then falls back.
Bearish moves that can't push lower:
FTX collapse, ETH holds previous lows;
MSTR sells BTC, slight dip then price holds;
US tech stocks collectively crash + major exchange hacker black swan, BTC only drops 5%.
The reason is simple: sellers are exhausted
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 As a leading stablecoin company, Circle's core foundation is USDC, relying on interest from reserve assets as its main source of income. This third-quarter earnings report exceeded overall expectations, with revenue, net profit, and adjusted EBITDA all showing positive growth, and on-chain ecosystem activity continuing to rise. This quarter, the average circulating supply of USDC was $73.3 billion, up 8% year-over-year, and on-chain transaction volume surged 49% year-over-year. Institutional trading demand remains strong, the company's overall profitability has significantly improved, short-term fundamentals are resilient, and market sentiment is supported.
However, beneath the surface of high growth, the core issue in the earnings report is very clear: the main business revenue growth is weak, and high growth relies on one-time income to support it. Core stablecoin reserve income declined 8% year-over-year, impacted by falling U.S. Treasury yields. Even with USDC scale expansion, it cannot offset the profit pressure caused by interest rates, and the traditional stablecoin profit model continues to weaken. The exceptionally high EBITDA growth this quarter mainly depends on a one-time income of $182 million from the ARC token presale, not sustained growth from the main business, so the real profit quality is far less impressive than the data suggests.
Overall, declining interest rates suppress core profit, the company's performance heavily depends on non-recurring income, making valuation difficult to sustain at higher levels, but there is some short-term upside potential. $CRCL #Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？ $CRCL
864.9 million USD revenue, 226 million net profit, USDC on-chain transaction volume up 49% year-over-year. Circle's Q3 report looks impressive no matter the year.
The pre-market reaction in US stocks is +3%.
On OKX, the CRCL token is moving more aggressively than the underlying stock. It opened at 72.61 and is now at 77.03, up 6.1%. The 19:00 hourly candle had 121,600 contracts, compared to just 26,000 in the previous one, a volume increase of four and a half times that pushed the price from 76.26 up to 78.17.
I'm more concerned about two other numbers. The position size is only 33.17 million USD, and this single volume traded nearly 30% of the chips. The fee rate is 0.0359%, which is three and a half times the 0.01% baseline, indicating bulls are paying up to chase.
A thin pool plus high fees means the price rises fast but also falls fast. I don't touch this kind of stock. It's not that I don't believe in Circle's business, but I can't stand a market where nearly 30% of the position turns over in one candle.
I trust the financial report, but I won't chase the price.
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 $BTC
Washington fired two shots at crypto today, yet BTC actually touched the daily high.
The probability of the CLARITY Act passing in its current form is now close to zero, and the Senate Banking Committee might even fall under Warren's control. On the other side, the list of issuers opposing tokenization has grown to 59, including Apple, Home Depot, and GE Vernova. A $64 million political donation also couldn't stop Sherrod Brown from being elected.
Three months ago, these news would have been enough to crash the price by $2,000.
The order book is at 78,651, 24-hour high at 78,725.5, +1.9%. At 7 PM, there were 157,000 contracts, at 6 PM, 254,000 contracts; volume shrank by 40% but the price still pushed up. Open interest is 2.793 billion, slightly higher than 2.76 billion at 6 PM. The fee rate is 0.0073%, below the 0.01% benchmark.
Price recognizes money, not legislation. The legislative path is dead, but leverage is not.
At 8 AM, the price dropped to 75,690; I took it as a one-time election panic pricing and didn't move after writing. Now it seems it didn't fall further, but I don't have the courage to add positions either. This kind of uneventful market is the easiest to make people impulsive.
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 Here's something about the carved boat analogy
Historically, every major Bitcoin dip bottoms out shortly after the midterm elections
2014: Bitcoin bottomed 71 days later, at a price of $170
2018: Bitcoin bottomed 39 days later, at a price of $3,200
2022: Bitcoin bottomed 13 days later, at a price of $15,500
From $170 to nearly $20,000 in 2017: an increase of over 100 times.
From $3,200 to $64,000 in 2021: a 20-fold increase.
From $15,500 to $126,000 in 2025: an 8-fold increase.
Just looking at this data alone, it does seem true and factual, and you might think it's impressive.
But if you break down each instance carefully, you'll find that the direct cause of each bottoming has basically nothing to do with the midterm elections.
For example, the bottom 13 days after the 2022 midterms was directly caused by the sudden collapse and bankruptcy of FTX the day after the election, triggering a chain of liquidations.
The fundamental driving force behind Bitcoin is the "four-year halving cycle," not the midterm elections.
However, this data actually implies another more important trend:
The returns are sharply diminishing (from 100x → 20x → 8x), and with the introduction of Bitcoin ETFs, volatility is significantly narrowing. The market structure and the pattern of the previous three one-sided crashes through the end of the year are no longer exactly the same.
So, what do you think will happen after the 2026 midterm elections?