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The most rampant bearish argument circulating in the $PEPE community today is "8 bearish RSI divergences detected on the 1-day chart." Honestly, divergence is a reversal signal when it appears at the end of a trend, but its reference value should be halved when in a narrow consolidation.
Looking at $PEPE's current position: the price is hugging the lower Bollinger Band at 4.95679e-06, the amplitude of the last 30 candles is only 6.67%, the absolute value of the MACD histogram is minimal, and the RSI is around 43, neither oversold nor turning down. This is not a pattern of "momentum exhaustion" but more like the price being compressed in an extremely narrow range, repeatedly grinding to shake out short-term holders. What does real distribution look like? A volume surge breaking key support, a rapid decline in holders, and a spike in exchange inflows. None of these three are present now; holders are still increasing from 600,000 to 760,000, and although volume is high, the price hasn't broken down, indicating that buying and selling are completing turnover within the same range rather than a one-sided dump.
Projects like the one on LaunchOnSF offering 3% $PEPE rewards, and $TIPE on Stonk making $PEPE the third largest pairing token, show that ecosystem-level demand is still growing outward. The short-term noise around $PEPE is indeed high, but considering the Bollinger Band compression, holder growth, and leading volume together, I am more inclined to believe this is a crouch before a jump, not the start of a plunge. 🐸Bitcoin surges to 78,700: $15.45 million worth of shorts liquidated 6 times within 2 hours, but what pushed it up was the breath of "uncertainty" disappearing
In the early hours of November 4, Bitcoin rebounded in a V-shape from a seven-week low of $75,618, reaching above $78,700 at its peak, with a daily volatility exceeding $3,000.
Within 24 hours, one address's BTC short position was forcibly liquidated 6 times within two hours after the price broke through $78,000, totaling 199.83 BTC, valued at $15.45 million. After liquidation, the address still held 70.99 BTC shorts, with a new liquidation price of $78,192, just below the current price.
In a 4-hour window, short liquidations amounted to $9.18 million, while long liquidations were only $3.1 million. In a 12-hour window, shorts liquidated $64.24 million, longs $29.41 million.
But today, we won't talk about "shorts being buried." Instead, let's discuss: what fuel was actually burned under this $3,000 V-shaped rebound, and how much thicker is the wall above $78,700 compared to $78,000. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 #Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？ #AMD数据中心收入近翻倍，营收及指引均超预期 The two major historical crashes occurred at different levels
After the 2018 and 2022 midterm elections, $BTC experienced a drop.
Both times, the price was close to the yearly low.
Currently, it is about 33% above the yearly low.
Different levels mean different room to fall.
How this number is calculated:
Add 33% to the low point, and that’s the current level.
Being far from the bottom means that to drop, it must first erase this gain.
Common misunderstanding:
Some treat the "post-election drop" as a fixed rule.
The rule only holds if the price had already reached a low at that time.
That premise no longer applies now.
History can be referenced but cannot be directly applied.
If you replace the year with the present, the conclusion changes.
#BTC现货ETF资金流出，企业财库增持放缓
#$BTC BTC heading straight to 84000? A violent rebound ignites bull market expectations, but the bears dare not easily concede. When will my iron-bottom 2231 short position break even?
After the decline, there was a sudden surge, and the market sentiment was indeed fully charged. As of 2026-11-04, BTC is currently quoted at 78584.08 USDT, up 1.88% in 24 hours, rising from a low of 75736.38 during the day; ETH is quoted at 2328.22 USDT, up 2.49% in 24 hours, with a high of 2334.11. Seeing BTC recovering towards 84000 and ETH strengthening simultaneously, market discussions about the bull market naturally heat up.
But from the bears' perspective, I won't change my stance just because of one rebound candlestick. BTC's daily MACD is still a death cross, the super trend remains downward, and the 25-day moving average at 80688.20 is still above; although ETH has just formed a MACD golden cross and the price has returned above the 7-day moving average of 2269.42, the 25-day and 99-day moving averages still pose resistance. The daily volume of BTC and ETH is only 0.65 and 0.54 times the 7-day average volume, respectively. Whether the upward momentum can continue still depends on whether volume can sustain.
On the news front, the market is digesting developments in security incident investigations and discussions on the postponement of South Korea's crypto tax, with risk appetite somewhat restored. For me, 84000 is an upper area the market is watching, not a guaranteed outcome; if volume and price continue to improve, the bears' logic needs timely reassessment, but if volume fails to keep up after a surge, the risk of repeated pullbacks cannot be ignored. In the afternoon, when the price hit 75,690, the group chat was full of wails and cries—how many people tearfully sold at the bottom?
But then, in the evening, Bitcoin directly broke through 78,710, and Ethereum also climbed above 2,330.
Confused? This is called a chain meat grinder.
In the afternoon, the market was smashed, liquidating 290 million long positions, washing out retail investors who chased the highs completely; in the evening, the price surged, forcing shorts into a squeeze and stampede, forcibly pushing the price to a new level.
The main players profit on both ends, while retail investors get hit on both sides. You think breaking the support means a bear market, but it slaps you back; you think the bull is coming back and you chase in, you might be catching the next baton.
But don’t rush to call the bull return. Look at what the real big money is doing: BTC spot ETFs have seen outflows for 3 consecutive days, withdrawing $1.157 billion; ETH has had outflows for 7 consecutive days, bleeding $656 million. What does this mean?
Institutions are using this short-covering rebound to quietly pull out overnight. The buyers below are all forced liquidations from short sellers.
What’s next, up or down? The cards are on the table:
Since 78,710 was broken, the short squeeze momentum is still in play in the short term. The upper resistance to watch is the real barrier at 79,500-80,000. For Ethereum, once it passes 2,330, the dense trapped zone above is 2,380-2,400.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 Some brothers on okx still believe that the CORE public chain is still operational, but its appearance is more like a static specimen.
Statistics show that there are about three hundred contracts registered in the CORE ecosystem list, but only a dozen or so have continuous funding, real users, and stable transactions. The vast majority are DApps quickly deployed using templates, originally created to participate in airdrop activities. Once incentives stop, users and funds quickly leave, leaving only dead contract records.
The falsity of on-chain liquidity is also very prominent: the DEX once had a large number of transactions, but the actual daily transaction amount was only 148 USD. Many addresses driven by scripts interact back and forth, blocks are produced as usual, but there is no effective economic activity.
The trend on the staking side is also worth noting: BTC staking scale has been continuously declining from its peak, corresponding to a large amount of CORE flowing out as staking unlocks, and during the same period, addresses associated with the official side transferred large amounts of tokens to exchanges. 1.16 billion ran in three days, but the pace is slowing down
The question raised in the November 2 article now has a complete answer: institutional funds did not flow back on Monday, but the running speed slowed day by day.
The numbers for the three days are here: last Friday ran 643 million, Monday ran 399 million, Tuesday ran 116 million, totaling about 1.16 billion USD in three days. The total number alone is scary, but looking at the slope is another matter: 643, 399, 116, decreasing day by day, Tuesday only left a fraction of Friday's amount.
The judgment of Bitwise's research director is: this wave is short-term risk aversion sentiment, not a structural withdrawal by institutions. He also added a survey: among 15 institutions asked during the last big drop, none reduced their $BTC ETF positions. Of course, surveys are surveys, redemptions are redemptions, who exactly is selling cannot be seen from the fund flow data itself.
There is also a contrast worth noting: 1.16 billion ran in three days, but the $BTC price actually rose, about 78,550 USD at 19:03 Beijing time. ETFs are selling, spot is rising, indicating that those taking over are not just the ETF route.
The cumulative net inflow this year has also been wiped to negative: the cumulative net inflow of $BTC ETFs in 2026 is now about negative 153 million USD, meaning the money institutions came in through ETFs this year has all been taken out again.US Midterm Election Watch: What Happens to the Market if Democrats Take Both Chambers?
A brief take on the market reaction.
If the news that Democrats take both chambers is true, the previously hyped "crypto-friendly easing" expectations will be discounted. BTC fell below 76,000, ETH also pulled back, as the market prices in a tighter regulatory environment. Hawks like Warren gaining more influence on banking committees likely means the CLARITY Act will be delayed.
$BTC still depends on liquidity, $ETH depends on whether ETF funds and the L2 narrative can withstand regulatory pressure.
Don’t rush to chase this news; this move looks more like a discounting of "uncertainty" rather than a trend reversal.
For observation and sharing only, not investment advice.
$BTC $ETH#Báo cáo tài chính của Circle sắp ra mắt, liệu sự tăng trưởng của stablecoin có thể hiện thực hóa lợi nhuận không? Many people misunderstand and think that a small market cap is easier to pump. A small market cap corresponds to small retail investors, seeing buys in hundreds. Coins with large market caps are actually easier to pump because they have hype, institutions, enterprises, and clear buying activity. There's no such thing as small market caps being easier to pump. The primary market has so many vehicles worth hundreds of thousands or millions, have they been pumped up? In the end, they all failed.The most crowded track in the past two years has been L2, but Scroll happens to say it's no longer crowded at this time.
On November 4th, a protocol upgrade proposal appeared on the Scroll DAO forum: to transform Scroll from a general Layer2 into a permissioned application-specific network focused on privacy AI, while migrating SCR to the Ethereum mainnet. If approved, the foundation will lead the upgrade and asset migration.
The new network will install the AI product stack of Compass, CENO, USX, and SCR, with directions including privacy AI interaction, secure credentials, intelligent agent workflows, payments, and computing power coordination. In short: changing from "a chain for everyone" to "a network for specific clients."
The term "permissioned" is worth paying attention to. The core narrative of general L2 is openness and anyone can deploy; switching to permissioned means actively giving up that narrative in favor of a controllable environment that can connect with enterprises. This may not be a technical choice but a client choice.
The change impacts $SCR. The supply and tokenomics remain unchanged, but governance scope extends to USX core parameters. Demand shifts from "needed for on-chain transactions" to "needed for staking and governance"—the former reflects ecosystem activity, the latter reflects how many are willing to take risks.
While everyone else is competing on TPS, Scroll has taken a different path. Being clear-headed and making money are two different things: success doesn’t depend on how beautiful the proposal is, but on whether there are real paying AI clients.Airdrop 0 passed the threshold, but 2 on-chain deposit projects are doable｜Airdrop Radar #012
In-depth review of 14 projects, 0 strong recommendations; airdrop tracks and task-based points all scored below 60.
🔥 Actions to take
1｜Two withdrawal thresholds still triggered｜For current holders
Tydro USDT0 loan utilization rate (how much of the deposited money is borrowed) estimated at 93.0%, threshold 90%, withdraw if possible; Hylo collateralization rate 146.6%, threshold 150%, follow the withdrawal process.
🧐 In-depth review ranking
🟡 Tori strUSD 73: Three non-directional betting strategies, annualized 10.11%, two audits; custodian not public, try small amounts first, 7-day redemption.
🟡 Axis sUSDx 65: Exchange arbitrage annualized 15.47%, reserves all on exchange, max $3,000.
⚪ Sky stUSDS: Terms prohibit use in China.
⏱ 6 task-based projects: Officially no points or airdrops (Tempo, Yuga, Daylight, Turnkey). The remaining two pay less than $30/hour: DAWN about $13/hour, DeBank about $8/hour, not worth it. Those who have deposited DAWN are already accumulating points through deposits.
💬 Do you calculate hourly pay before doing tasks? See you next Friday.
Not investment advice, "estimated" indicates calculated values.
#airdrop #DeFi #stablecoinThe midterm election results are in, and the macro playing field is completely reshuffled! U.S. Treasury yields have plummeted, gold is strongly accumulating, and U.S. stock sectors are extremely polarized. Looking back at the pattern since 1946, the S&P has averaged a 14.4% surge in the year following the election—this "historical dividend" must be closely watched. $ZEC
Turning to the crypto world, the scene has dramatically changed! $BTC staged an epic "deep V reversal," plunging to 75,000 before violently snapping back to 78,000; $ETH similarly shot up from 2225 in a desperate counterattack straight toward 2323. This big bullish candle is a pure shakeout to kill shorts.
With political uncertainties settled, capital is starting to reprice. Macro and candlesticks resonate together, big fish emerge in deep waters. Don’t get shaken out and left behind—keep a close eye on the market; this rally’s gains must be captured! What’s your take on this rebound? See you in the comments.#Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？ Tonight (pre-market Beijing time), Circle is releasing its earnings report, which is essentially a report card for the stablecoin sector.
Don't be fooled by the chart showing USDC circulation expanding—that's just surface level. The key is in the latter part: reserve income, distribution costs, and profitability.
Simply put, Circle's business relies on earning interest from U.S. Treasury bonds. The Federal Reserve is stubbornly holding high interest rates, so theoretically, Circle should be comfortably earning interest. But the problem lies in distribution costs—they have to pay a large sum to channels like Coinbase. The real profit that ends up in their own pocket is the core issue.
What does this have to do with BTC? Very direct.
Look at the current macro environment: the Democrats just took both houses, regulatory pressure is looming, and tonight there's the big non-farm payrolls report. BTC is struggling around 76,000.
If Circle's earnings show that the USDC supply hasn't really grown, or profits are completely eaten up by distribution costs, it means no new incremental funds are coming in off-exchange; everyone is just watching.
If even a must-have business like stablecoins is struggling to grow, it will be even harder for BTC to have an independent rally.
From a trading perspective, don't bet on a one-sided move from the earnings report. Regardless of performance, the current macro chaos is the key driver for BTC. Hold your ammo, wait for tonight's non-farm payrolls and this wave of earnings sentiment to settle, then confirm support on a pullback before making a move. Stay steady. $BTC 美军最早周三动手、中东已摆开三艘航母、其中一艘月初就得返港——这个时间窗窄得不像巧合，而市场还在用旧剧本押注。真正的风险不是战争本身，而是你下意识买入$BTC的那一刻。 过去几轮地缘冲突已经反复验证：$BTC 不是数字黄金，而是纳斯达克的高贝塔亲戚。恐慌指数飙升时，它和$ETH 往往是最先被抛售换流动性的一批，而不是资金蜂拥而入的避风港。散户的肌肉记忆是“出事就买避险”，但近几年的行情把这个教科书撕得粉碎——风险偏好一收缩，加密资产是第一批被清算的，不是最后的堡垒。 这次的不同在于节奏。选举刚结束就动手，航母部署窗口极短，说明决策层不打算给市场消化时间。这种“快打”结构对风险资产最不友好：没有缓冲期，没有预期管理，只有突然的波动率跳升。$BTC 在这种环境下的表现，历史上更接近高流动性风险资产，而非价值储存工具。 真正该盯的是美债和黄金。地缘风险是事件性冲击，不是加仓理由。如果非要在这个窗口里找信号，看的是$BTC 能否在恐慌中守住关键支撑——守不住，说明它又一次扮演了提款机角色；守得住，才谈得上叙事切换。但别把“可能”当成“已经”。 一句话记住：战争不是买入信号，是流动性测试。$BT$BCH IS +29.79% OVER 90 DAYS BUT -12.81% OVER 30. Now it's 276.20, up 0.49% today, above the 263.36 chart low. I see a bounce, not confirmation. Strong long-term numbers can mask weak short-term momentum.
Which matters more for BCH now: 90-day strength or 30-day weakness?Anthropic's third-quarter revenue was about $17 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1127%. This growth rate is astonishing, but in the same quarter, the company recorded an operating loss of about $567 million, whereas in the second quarter it had an operating profit of about $974 million.
I think this set of changes is more valuable for judgment than focusing solely on the huge net loss.
The net loss includes non-cash adjustments related to the valuation of financing instruments, so it cannot be entirely understood as cash burned in the quarter; the shift from profit to loss at the operating level indicates that cost pressures during expansion still genuinely exist.
Demand growth has been validated by revenue; the next question is whether the company can gradually stabilize profitability while providing more services and continuing R&D.
High valuations ultimately need to be supported by future profits. The larger the revenue base, the harder it is to maintain extremely high growth rates, and investors must also assess how much profit the company can retain after growth slows.
I do not dismiss Anthropic's products and business progress just because of a quarterly loss.
However, the most exciting growth figures before the IPO are also the easiest to overshadow cost changes.
This update makes me more confident in demand but still patient regarding valuation. Customers willing to pay is already a big step; making each round of new revenue bring more stable operating returns will make this business more worthy of long-term holding.
#Anthropic营收暴增1127%，能否支撑IPO高估值？ The rate of linking reserve profits to USDC growth is 25%,
but reserve revenues increased by only 5%, which reduces the profit margin $OFC
On-chain token holder address analysis:
- The top 5 combined account for about 87.4%, indicating extremely high concentration.
- The 1st and 2nd are project-related addresses (bridge contract + multisig wallet), totaling over 66%.
- The 3rd is clearly the OKX hot wallet, mainly holding user-custodied OFC.
- The 4th and 5th also tend to be exchange-related addresses.
- The top 100 together hold about 98.65% of the tokens.
The tokens are basically with the project team and OKX. The easiest place for the project team to dump is OKX, which basically means they are treating us as bag holders After the $BTC election results were finalized, the market showed a typical pattern of initial suppression followed by a rebound. BTC once dipped below $76,000, then quickly recovered in a V-shape, surging to $77,883, and ultimately closed the day up 0.5%.
Options trading related to this election was very active, totaling $660 million, more than double the previous day’s volume. The capital structure showed a strong bullish sentiment, with $420 million spent on call option purchases versus only $105 million on sales, indicating intense long-side speculation. Nasdaq futures also staged a recovery, narrowing losses from over 2% at the lowest point to just a 0.3% decline, signaling a rapid rebound in risk asset sentiment.
However, there is a crucial divergence here: this rebound is mainly driven by options speculation, while the spot market has not kept pace. Outflows from spot ETFs continue, with a net outflow of $515 million last month, and in just the first two days of this month, outflows have nearly reached last month’s level.
In simple terms, currently only speculative options funds are chasing the rebound, while spot institutions continue to reduce positions, and fundamental capital has not returned. This structure requires extra caution; short-term sentiment recovery does not equal a trend reversal. Until the spot outflow turning point appears, the foundation of the rebound is not solid. #Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？ I used to be optimistic about $XRP as well, but recently there's been a very unusual phenomenon: wallets and on-chain transactions keep exploding, yet the coin price keeps weakening. Why is that?
The core reason is that business revenue and the token are completely decoupled. Ripple's institutional business revenue cannot be shared with XRP holders, and there is no stable buyback or burn to support the price floor. After the positive news has been repeatedly realized, without continuous cash flow narrative support, funds naturally are unwilling to actively push the price up.
Another token close to traditional finance, $BCH, has real merchant payment adoption, supported by BitPay and CoinGate, with merchant acceptance ranking among the top in crypto payments. But this story is too old; from the high of $654, it has retraced over 65%. Funds have all moved to AI public chains and new RWA tracks. Plus, the spot ETF progress is very slow, institutions have little willingness to allocate, so it is likely to grind repeatedly around 284, only waiting for ETF news to catalyze.
In the end, no matter how good the on-chain usage and real-world scenarios are, it does not necessarily mean the coin price will rise. XRP and BCH are the best examples.🔥 A long lower shadow appeared on the BTC daily chart! With election uncertainty fading, could the market rebound be a reversal signal?
🔵 BTC: This time the daily candle indeed formed a relatively long lower shadow. Although it didn't reach the expected 120-day moving average, support appeared around $76,000. Then, consecutive large bullish candles on the 15-minute chart quickly pushed the price back near $78,000, indicating strong short-term buying and short covering.
🔴 Macro: The US midterm election results are becoming clearer, political uncertainty is fading, and risk appetite has somewhat recovered. US stock futures and crypto markets have also rebounded in sync.
🟡 My judgment: This may be the start of short-term sentiment repair, but it cannot yet be directly considered a bull market reversal. The key for BTC is whether it can hold above $79,000 with volume. Only if it breaks through and confirms on a pullback will there be a chance to further open up rebound space.
⚠️ Risk reminder: If the rebound lacks spot capital support, it may still be just an oversold bounce. Do not chase the rally intraday; wait for a 15-minute pullback confirmation and strictly control stop losses.
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 $BTC $ETH $SOL #美伊谈判未突破，油价为何单日跌逾7%？ Many people are puzzled: the negotiations clearly did not reach a substantive agreement, so why did crude oil prices plunge sharply? The core logic is not "conflict resolution," but rather the falsification of extreme blockade expectations, leading to a concentrated flight from geopolitical risk premiums.
A large part of this recent oil price surge was priced in as a "black swan premium" for a full blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and large-scale shutdowns. The market had previously priced in escalating conflict and a complete cutoff of the strait. Although this round of negotiations did not finalize an agreement, Qatar's mediation reopened communication channels; both sides have not closed diplomatic windows and have signaled willingness to continue dialogue and temporarily avoid full-scale war. Capital immediately judged that the most extreme blockade scenario would not occur in the short term, causing the panic premium that had been priced in early to be rapidly unwound, with bulls taking profits en masse, directly driving a deep drop in oil prices.
Additionally, constraints from the midterm elections play a role. After the Democrats took both chambers, it is significantly more difficult for Trump to launch a new large-scale military strike or request additional war funding, further reducing the probability of short-term conflict escalation and suppressing oil's risk-hedge valuation. $BTC $ETH $SNDK 🔥 BTC hits resistance breaking through $80,000! ETF outflows continue, corporate treasuries can't save the day either!
🔵 BTC: Spot ETFs have a cumulative net outflow of $1.042 billion, with total net assets dropping to $98.1 billion. Strategy bought 811 BTC, spending $65.5 million, while also using $208 million to repurchase preferred shares; Strive increased holdings by 124 BTC but relies on 15% annualized financing. Corporate accumulation does not equal large-scale new market inflows.
🔴 ETH: Funds remain under pressure, lacking independent buying support. If BTC weakens again, ETH may face greater correction pressure.
🟡 My judgment: BTC is currently oscillating between $77,000 and $80,000, with insufficient buying strength intraday. Sporadic corporate treasury accumulation temporarily fails to offset ETF outflow pressure. Without sustained spot capital inflows, $80,000 remains a key resistance.
📉 Trading approach: Do not blindly chase gains; focus on whether $80,000 can be firmly held with volume and if ETF funds turn back to net inflows.
⚠️ Risk reminder: Outflows do not necessarily mean prices will fall; beware of false breakouts and rapid rebounds. Control position sizes in contract trading and strictly set stop losses.
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 $BTC $ETH $ZEC King Dong becomes lame king
Previously, the Polly Market predicted the Republican probability of holding the Senate at 24%, and holding the House at 6%
The probability of Republicans holding both chambers simultaneously is only 4.5%
The Democrats lead by 8.9 percentage points in the generic congressional ballot (voter preference for which party to elect congressional members); Trump's support rate is 38.4%
The Democrats need a net gain of 3 House seats and 4 Senate seats.
Losing the Senate is already decided, and holding the House may be a luxury.
The one who defeats King Dong is not the Democrats, but Iran and the Houthis.#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 Within one hour, Coinbase Institutional's BTC flow opened bidirectionally.
First, 668 BTC, approximately 52.45 million USD, was transferred from Coinbase Institutional to an unknown wallet; at 17:24, 1086 BTC, about 85.08 million USD, was transferred back from another unknown wallet. One out and one in, net inflow of 418 BTC, roughly 32.63 million USD.
The volume is not large. 418 BTC added to the daily on-chain BTC flow is not a flood. What’s worth noting is the direction: large transfers out and even larger transfers in on the same day, both involving the same institutional custody channel, indicating this is not retail arbitrage but a rhythmic position adjustment.
However, a commonly confused point: transferring into an exchange does not mean immediate buying. Coins sitting in custody addresses could be prepared for sale, internal account transfers, collateral allocation, or market-making inventory replenishment; the direction can only be verified afterward. To claim institutions are bottom-fishing just by looking at these 1086 BTC is lazy.
My judgment leans neutral to slightly bullish: net inflow is positive, indicating increasing demand on the custody side; but the net amount of only 418 BTC does not support a trend-level narrative, more like a tentative position increase.
A question worth pondering: $BTC’s next move depends on the continuity of this flow line. Sustained net inflows over several days would signal a trend change; if outflows surpass inflows again, this 418 BTC is just noise.$MSFT
Is the increase in AI infrastructure supply good news for Microsoft or a new expenditure pressure?
AMD's latest announcement lists Microsoft as a partner. More supply options may improve deployment efficiency, but procurement ultimately depends on cloud service and product revenue recovery.
If the new capacity quickly turns into paid usage, the investment cycle is clearer; if depreciation and operating costs rise first and revenue realization is slow, cloud business growth may not prevent margin pressure. I am focusing on computing power utilization and cash recovery.$PEPE
0.0000051871. The highest point today appeared only for a few minutes, the 1-hour candle at 16:00 was also the largest volume of the day, with 439,000 contracts.
This morning I wrote that it was just a breath away from the previous high of 0.0000050272, at that time it was 0.0000049. Later it really broke through, closing at 0.00000509 after the break, now at 0.0000050846.
The two volumes after the breakout were 260,000 and 117,000, halving and halving again, the price did not touch back 0.0000052.
The fee rate is 0.01%, exactly on the benchmark, premium is still positive at 0.037%, perpetual is a bit more expensive than spot, bulls pay, but not heavily. Open interest is 43 million, 24-hour turnover is 280 million, one order of magnitude difference.
BONK +10.6%, SHIB +2.6%, DOGE +1.2%, meme coins really led the rise today. PEPE broke the previous high relying on that one spike, no one followed after.
The top was not smashed out, it collapsed by itself because the steps were not fully built. Let's watch first.
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 $SNDK
At noon, I said SanDisk formed a double top, and if 1075 breaks, don't buy. I was proven wrong.
At 11 o'clock, the 1-hour candle dropped to 1049.1, down 8.8%, the lowest of the day. Seven hours later, it rose back to 1145.4, up 9.2%, only ten yuan away from the 24-hour high of 1155.8.
Volume didn't quite cooperate. At 11, 60,000 contracts were sold off, at 13, 64,000 bought back, at 14, 70,000, then 32,000, 27,000, 43,000, 25,000, gradually thinning out, while the price hovered around 1145.
The fee rate was cut from 0.051% in the morning to 0.0285%. Open interest is 129 million, thicker than the 123 million in the morning. Bulls haven't fled, but no one is willing to pay extra to chase higher.
Changxin Storage is up 12% in 24 hours, KOSPI turned positive, the storage sector is not moving alone today.
If I was wrong, I was wrong, no excuses. The 1155 line is still there; whether it holds at tomorrow's open is more valuable than this sentence.
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 Let's calculate: the inverse volatility buffer for 10x leverage is roughly only 10%, which concerns me more than "going long $756,500." In the material, Core Trader 97 goes long 8,730.82 HYPE at a reference price of $86.65; I won't guess what opportunity he saw yet, but first let's see how much deviation this position can withstand.
① The nominal value is about $756,500; roughly estimating with 10x leverage, the initial margin corresponds to about $75,700. The nominal position is not the principal; the large amount doesn't mean a thick safety cushion.
② If the price moves 1% against the position, the loss is about $7,565, equivalent to 10% of the margin mentioned above. This is my simplified deduction: leverage amplifies not only gains but also narrows the room for error correction.
③ A 10% drop from $86.65 is about $77.99. This is just a risk scale calculated based on the reference price, not the actual liquidation price; the reference price cannot be directly treated as the average transaction price, as maintenance margin, fees, and additional margin calls will affect the result.
My judgment is that this long position tests risk management more; just looking at the amount doesn't reveal the odds of success. I will pay attention to whether the position and leverage increase together, reminding myself not to misinterpret a large position as confirmation of direction. Bitcoin was slammed down to 75,700 last night, then rose back to 78,300 within a few hours.
When it was falling, almost everyone who wanted to buy stayed away; the price was forcibly pushed down.
But the drop was so severe that the rebound was also quick.
Where did the money come from?
420 million worth of long orders rushed in, while shorts only had 105 million, a fourfold difference.
Short sellers were forced to cover, and had to buy back, resulting in a V-shaped market.
This V didn't bounce by itself; it was pushed up by money.
On the other side, ETF buyers withdrew 1.16 billion in three days.
While some were betting on whether the price would rise these days, others were actually selling coins.
Currently at 78,300, it is still 1,700 USD short of the 80,000 psychological level.
If it breaks through this level, then 81,300 can be discussed; if it fails, it will have to try 77,000 again.
But if it really breaks 80,000, the money in contracts alone won't be enough; real money buying coins must come in.
ETF is that source of money: as more people buy this fund, the fund company has to go to the market to buy coins back.
Only when it switches from selling to buying will this wave truly hold.Rising and rising, the leverage has been added back again
All three coins rise together, long-short ratio drops together, but positions all increase, with liquidations still mainly on short positions.
$BTC: New high, positions increased
Current price $78,497, up 2.43% in 24 hours, high 78,520, low 75,734. Long-short ratio 1.93, 4 hours ago 2.30, decreasing. Positions about 2.76 billion U. Funding rate +0.0078%. In the last 86 minutes, 100 liquidation orders: shorts 806,000 U, longs 7,861 U.
$ETH: All liquidations are shorts
Current price $2,322.8, up 2.44% in 24 hours, high 2,329.33, low 2,226.55. Long-short ratio 1.72, 4 hours ago 2.06. Positions about 1.543 billion U. Funding rate +0.0086%. In the last 75 minutes, 100 liquidation orders: shorts 905,000 U, longs 0 U.
$SOL: Most crowded longs, highest funding rate
Current price $93.09, up 0.87% in 24 hours, high 93.95, low 89.88. Long-short ratio 3.21, 4 hours ago 3.38. Positions about 343 million U. Funding rate +0.0100%. In the last 351 minutes, 100 liquidation orders: shorts 431,000 U, longs 20,000 U.
Commentary: Long-short ratio down, leverage not down: positions all increase, funding rates all positive, longs are paying to carry the rally.
Summary: How long can paying to carry the rally last? Is it fuel for continued rise or the wick for the next squeeze? Watch if 78,520 holds steady
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 The Democratic Party really took control of both chambers, Senate 51 to 49, and flipped the House
Trump directly entered a lame-duck state
The most immediate consequence might be the "death sentence" for the CLARITY Act
TD Cowen's conclusion is very straightforward: the probability of passing in the next two years is zero; if it’s not resolved before the new Congress opens in January next year, it has to start over
The Senate Banking Committee will most likely switch to Elizabeth Warren, and the House Financial Services Committee to Maxine Waters, both of whom are not friendly towards crypto
Today $BTC fell below 76,000 then rebounded, the panic index went from 26 back to 34, but it’s still in fear territory
On November 4, US spot ETFs had net outflows for the third consecutive day, losing $115.6 million
$BTC bounced back to 78,500 due to overselling, but ETFs continue to bleed
Next, it depends on how many times the 76,000 line can hold under outflow pressure
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 The most telling signal in crypto tonight isn't a price print — it's the lopsided borrow book. Across three majors, traders are paying to borrow coins to go long at a scale that dwarfs short-side demand, and one leveraged participant just used that imbalance as a reason to walk away from most of their exposure. The raw numbers make the crowding plain. On $BTC, long-side coin borrowing sits at 1,524.93 versus just 69.67 borrowed to short — a roughly 22-to-1 tilt. $ETH shows about 15,900 coins borThe bank finally admitted it, but the amount of money is still not acknowledged.
French bank Crédit Mutuel Arkéa confirmed to CoinDesk that it was attacked; fraudulent transactions are now under control.
Bitquery on-chain data only confirms $108.8 million USDC flowed out from Kraken, Crypto.com, and OKX within 21 hours. The majority was converted to Ether because Ether has no issuer-controlled freeze switch.
The bank says customer interests are fully protected, some transactions have been suspended, and authorities have been notified, but it did not specify whether the lost assets were fiat or crypto, nor how much was lost.
The bank admits the attack but not the amount. On-chain traceable amounts and reported figures always differ. The key to recovering funds is not whether the bank admits it, but what form the money has been converted into.
#Arkea #Hack #ZachXBT #USDCThe midterm election results are out, and the Democrats have taken control of both the House and Senate. Bitcoin's reaction last night was typical: it first dropped to $75,618, the lowest since mid-September, then pulled back to around $78,000 a few hours later.
I noticed two details. First, the lowest point almost touched the 50-week moving average (about $75,700), which has been supporting the price since September; second, the total long liquidations across the network were about $288 million, which is not large. This indicates panic, but not to the level of a stampede.
My view: this feels more like the "boot dropping" moment and should not be taken as a reversal signal. The uncertainty has disappeared, but regulatory bills will most likely be delayed, and there are still many sell orders above $78,000. Ordinary people should avoid chasing the rebound with leverage these days and first see if the weekly chart can hold the 50-week moving average. If it holds, this drop is just an emotional purge; if it doesn't, it's not too late to look for a lower position.
$BTC #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 $BTC $ETH
In this midterm election, Trump has basically lost completely.
Now the sentiment in the crypto circle is visibly panicked; many people have already predicted a big drop in the crypto market.
The current vote count is very clear: the Democratic Party is leading by a large margin, firmly taking the House of Representatives, and also making a reverse comeback in the Senate. Next, the new Speaker will take office, holding investigative powers, and has long made harsh statements that the first thing upon taking office will be to strictly investigate three major issues.
The most fatal of these is a thorough investigation into the financial arrangements of the Trump family.
In the past two years, he has heavily invested in the crypto sector, including WLFI, the USD1 stablecoin, and the recently obtained banking license—all are on the investigation list. This means the crypto empire he built single-handedly is now facing a comprehensive liquidation.
This is also the core reason for the market panic.
For the entire previous year, the biggest policy backing for the crypto circle was on this side; everyone was playing with relaxed expectations. Now that Congress has changed, regulatory expectations have instantly reversed, naturally putting pressure on the market.
However, there is no need for blind panic.
Historical patterns show that after midterm elections, the balance of power between the White House and Congress makes it difficult for extreme new policies or extreme regulations to be implemented.
The negative news is real, but the probability of a direct crash is not high; it is more about emotional sell-offs and washing out floating chips. Patience to endure the volatility is key.
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 $ZEC This market situation is interesting. A whale directly swept up 4 million coins and withdrew them, casually opening a 2x low-leverage long position on the contract. The spot is locked down and can't be dumped, the low-leverage long is obviously not afraid of a shakeout, it's almost like they have 'short squeeze incoming' written on their face. Plus, the old pool cross-chain locked over 20,000 coins, the bears are losing interest every day, what more could this structure need?
#ZEC
$ZEC
👇【Two extremes: AI keeps booming, $CORE don't rush to catch the falling knife (•̀ᴗ•́)و】
AI optical communication heats up again: Marvell plans a stock swap acquisition of Lumentum, giants heavily investing in underlying computing power, peripheral funds still hyped on AI infrastructure (￣▽￣)～■□～.
On the other hand, CORE's "asset recovery good news" turned into an emotional bomb. The hard fork recovered 68.15 million CORE, but the market dropped over 6% (╯°□°）╯︵ ┻━┻. The transaction was not rolled back, but the attack record is permanently on-chain — technical patches can be applied, but trust cracks are hard to mend (｡•́︿•̀｡). More critically, these tokens only went into a recovery address and have not yet been distributed to affected users, the invisible selling pressure hangs like a sword overhead.
Combined with macro disturbances from the midterm elections, sentiment is fragile. CORE holders: first verify your holdings, reset stop losses, focus only on core support; only with support can recovery happen, break it and withdraw (•̀ᴗ•́)و. Don't treat "good news" as a buy signal, funds are running, don't rush to catch the flying knife (；一_一).
#美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？ Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Networks (DePIN) are often touted as "disrupting traditional cloud services" and flourishing. But beneath the surface, many networks do not run on real demand; instead, they rely on inflation subsidies to sustain false data.
Comparing these three projects:
$FIL: The former storage giant. The total network capacity is huge, but the actual enterprise-paid storage revenue is very low. Node (SP) earnings still heavily depend on block inflation rewards. Its token value capture is extremely reliant on the realization of the future narrative of "AI data storage."
$RNDR: The leader in the computing power track. The BME mechanism (burn and mint equilibrium) has been successfully implemented, and the mechanism design is sound. But the pain point is that the absolute income scale from AI inference is not yet large enough; the buy pressure from token burns relative to its circulating market value is insufficient to create a big wave.
$HNT: The veteran in IoT communication. Initially grew through hotspot mining subsidies, now transitioning to 5G networks. Its token capture depends on real network data consumption (Data Credits), with a clear path, but limited by the overall growth rate of the IoT sector.
Conclusion:
FIL relies on "inflation subsidies and new narratives"; RNDR has a "working mechanism but a small market size"; HNT is "seeking real communication demand." When buying DePIN, the hard metric is to look beyond node counts to real external payments and see how much remains after subsidies are deducted. Whale moving 10,000 BTC—is it a sign of an impending dump?
Suppose one day there’s a large on-chain transfer of 10,000 BTC; just looking at that number is quite intimidating.
Especially when someone says “whale activity,” it’s easy to jump to the conclusion that someone is preparing to sell.
But an on-chain transfer doesn’t equal an actual trade.
If it’s just the same entity reallocating assets between different wallets, no buying or selling may have occurred at all. Even if the funds are transferred to an exchange, it only means the capital might be ready for trading, not that it will definitely be sold.
So I think when seeing whale news, besides the amount, it’s more important to check who the sending and receiving addresses belong to.
However, on-chain address labels can also be inaccurate, so it’s still hard to judge the true intent based on a single transfer alone.
When you see a large whale transfer, do you immediately worry about a dump, or do you first check the wallet addresses? $BTC #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 The results of the U.S. midterm elections are out, and the crypto industry has delivered a very poor report card.
To start with the conclusion: $64 million did not buy the desired outcome. Sherrod Brown successfully won re-election, and the money the industry spent on his opponent did not work.
Looking at the specific losses: pro-crypto representatives Bryan Steil, Zach Nunn, and Ann Wagner all lost their seats, and Mike Lawler has also conceded defeat. This is not an individual issue but a collective failure of a whole group.
Why didn’t the money work? Voters’ sensitivity to crypto issues is far lower than to pressing topics like inflation and employment. The industry spent money on advertising, but on voting day, people were thinking about other things. The $64 million bought exposure, not votes.
What does this mean for the market? Policy expectations will be pushed back. The pro-crypto forces in this Congress are weaker than anticipated, so the narrative of pushing legislation forward won’t have a timetable in the short term. Part of the pricing of $BTC and $ETH originally included a premium for regulatory easing, which now needs to be discounted. Highly volatile assets like $SOL react more noticeably when sentiment cools.
But it’s not all bad. Losing an election doesn’t mean the issue disappears; the industry’s political donation capability has been proven. What’s really worth considering is: who should this money be given to for it to be effective? If the same results keep happening over several cycles, the industry may need to change its way of engaging in politics rather than just increasing the budget.I bought $CRCL thinking USDC +25% = money printing.
I was wrong.
Reserve income only +5%. Coinbase eats >60%. Rates falling. $900M redeemed in a week.
I learned: growth without margin is just volume.
I'm still holding into earnings tomorrow, but not blind anymore.
Are you holding or selling?
$CRCL
#CircleQ3USDCGrowth Is $BTC going to be rescued by Trump again? Where exactly is the funding coming from?
The midterm election results are still unfolding, and the Republican side is under considerable pressure, causing market sentiment to fluctuate back and forth. The non-farm payroll report is just ahead on Friday, and the current rebound clearly lacks volume, so rushing to chase the highs is not recommended.
Looking at past patterns, one to two months after the midterm elections often present good opportunities for positioning. But in the short term, the focus remains on the non-farm payrolls, as this data will directly influence the market's judgment on the Federal Reserve's December interest rate decision. September's non-farm payroll added only 29,000 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 4.2%. The market now expects October's additions to be between 55,000 and 60,000.
The current market consensus is that short-term rate cuts are basically off the table; the core concern is how long high interest rates will be maintained.
However, persistently high interest rates are not set in stone. If subsequent employment and economic data continue to weaken and pressure accumulates, the Fed is more likely to adjust its policy later. The crypto market is especially sensitive to liquidity expectations; often, before real funds enter, the market already speculates on rate cuts, which can easily trap traders.
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 $ETH The big dip down to 76000 this morning definitely shouldn't be shorted; it's a very strong support. You can only short if the support fails and the rebound can't go up. I don't understand the idea behind shorting at 76000. I also said this morning that you can go long with a stop loss and a light position on $BTC $ETH #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到
【Which indicator do you value most when judging bullish or bearish data?】
I value the "Holder Cost Basis Distribution" indicator the most. Based on this indicator, long-term positions have repeatedly bottomed BTC at $17,000, with the ultimate bear bottom at $15,000.
$BTC holder price range construction: We can observe holders' breakeven points through the cost basis distribution, which groups prices according to Bitcoin's last movement.
Long-term holders (investors holding coins for over 155 days) hold a massive stake of about 4 million BTC, with purchase prices between $85,000 and $118,000, mostly bought in 2025.
More than half of the tokens they hold were bought at prices higher than the current price. If the price rebounds to around $85,000, many of these holders may sell to break even.$BTC ETF outflows reached $1.16 billion, with institutions saying it's a short-term sentiment weakness.
However, open interest rose 3.5% in 24 hours and the price increased by 1.93%, indicating new long positions are entering, not just a simple retreat.
The $79,742 level has been tested 7 times on the upside, pulled back 5 times, and broken through twice. I'm watching this level closely; if it doesn't hold, I won't chase longs.
The US nonfarm payroll data for November 4 is about to be released, and the market may not follow historical patterns. Do you think it will break above $79,742 first or pull back to $77,601 first? #Чистый отток средств из спотового биткойн-ETF в США за два дня превысил 1 миллиард долларов 🚨 Apple's earnings report seems like a big win, but the market isn't buying it! The real risk might be hidden in next quarter's gross margin.
$AAPL Apple's Q4 revenue and profit both exceeded market expectations, but the stock price dropped after the earnings release.
The question is: with such good results, why are investors selling?
The answer may be just one: the market is not looking at how much was earned in the past, but how much can be earned in the future.
What is most worth watching this time is Apple's guidance for next quarter's gross margin.
📉 1. Gross margin decline is what the market is truly worried about
Apple expects the December quarter gross margin to be 45%–46%, a clear drop from this quarter's 47.9%, and below analysts' previous expectations.
This means that even if revenue continues to grow, profit margins may be squeezed.
📉 2. Rising memory prices are transmitting cost pressure
The CFO clearly stated that memory prices are currently at unprecedented highs.
Previously accumulated low-cost inventory is gradually being used up, and cost pressures may continue in the coming quarters.
On top of that, investments related to Siri AI are starting to be accounted for, so Apple faces not only sales growth challenges but also how to maintain profit margins.
📉 3. Service business growth is slowing, another profit engine is cooling down
The service business growth guidance for next quarter is slowing to 8%–9%.
Although the service business still has relatively high profit margins, the slowdown in growth also means that Apple's hopes to further improve through the service business are diminishing 🔥The most alarming signal has appeared: both BTC and ETH are holding near critical levels, but institutional funds have not shown active inflows! BTC is hovering around 78,000, ETH is tugging around 2,300, prices have not crashed drastically, yet there is also a lack of strong upward momentum. 📉 Previously, BTC spot ETFs saw a single-day net outflow of about $643 million, and ETH ETFs have experienced outflows for several consecutive trading days, with a single-day net outflow of about $139.7 million on November 2, mostly contributed by BlackRock's ETHA.
🧠 This indicates the market is currently more in a risk digestion phase rather than having re-entered a strong buying stage. BTC's rebound may partly be due to short covering, but whether sustained incremental funds appear depends on subsequent spot trading and ETF flows. The 78,556–78,836 range is a short-term resistance zone to watch for BTC, while ETH needs to be monitored for an effective breakthrough of 2,350–2,370. ⚠️
Additionally, BTC's near-term options implied volatility has risen from about 43.5% to about 51%, meaning the market's expectation of short-term volatility has clearly increased. Policy uncertainty after the U.S. elections and employment data may continue to affect risk appetite. 🧭 Before funds truly flow back, I prefer to control positions and wait for confirmation rather than guessing which bullish candle signals a reversal. When do you think institutional funds will re-enter? #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 🔥Don't just focus on the results of the U.S. midterm elections; what’s truly worth studying is the timing overlap between them and BTC's four-year halving cycle! In 2014, 2018, and 2022, the three midterm elections all occurred during bear markets, and BTC continued to decline after the elections before gradually starting a new recovery phase. 📊 The lows were approximately 71 days, 39 days, and 13 days from election day, respectively, which on the surface suggests the cycle bottoms seem to appear earlier each time.
But this does not mean the elections are the switch for market downturns. The years 2014, 2018, and 2022 were accompanied by different industry shocks, especially the 2022 FTX collapse, which had an independent and significant impact on the market. 🧠 Therefore, the halving cycle and political cycle can be studied together but should not be conflated, nor should the three historical events be treated as an inevitable script.
⚠️ What’s most special about 2026 is that BTC’s phase low already appeared early in July, several months ahead of the November election. This could mean the market has completed part of its adjustment early, or it could indicate that the structure of this cycle has changed. Tonight, rather than guessing whether the market will drop again after the election, it’s better to focus on key lows, capital flows, and trend confirmation. Do you trust the four-year cycle more, or do you believe institutional funds will rewrite history this time? #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权