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After tonight's close, SanDisk consensus revenue is 46.7, with the company's guidance upper limit at 46, and Wedbush raised expectations to 49.04 before the earnings report.
In the past four quarters, SanDisk has always significantly exceeded guidance, so tonight the core issue is not whether it "beats consensus," but whether the Q2 guidance can continue the momentum. NAND price increases are real; contract prices rose 20%–30% in Q3, expected to rise another 15%–20% in Q4, and enterprise SSDs increased 23%–28%, making it the only storage category with accelerating price hikes. Wedbush maintains a buy rating with a $2,000 price target.
However, there is one detail worth considering before the earnings report.
The NAND price increase story is almost entirely concentrated among hyperscale cloud providers. PC manufacturers have enough inventory to last until the end of the quarter and are cutting SSD orders; smartphone brands are buying only the minimum; bare wafer prices have risen beyond what retail channels can absorb. Consumer demand is shrinking, and the entire market is supported by a single customer group. This is not a crack in NAND logic, but a crack in whether prices can continue to rise after the earnings report.
Additionally, Wedbush raised profit expectations but left the price target unchanged at $2,000. Better profits have already been priced in. The idea that "the stock price should be higher" has not yet been confirmed.
My cost basis is around 1,258, with a thick unrealized gain buffer, but a thick unrealized gain does not equal safety on earnings night. The options market previously priced in ±9.87% single-day volatility; the more the price rises pre-market, the more real the selling pressure to "realize good news."
Tonight, rather than focusing on the revenue number itself, the key points are: where the Q2 guidance lands, whether the gross margin holds at 83%–85%, and whether consumer demand outside of cloud providers continues to decline.
I won't guess the earnings report. The 1,258 cost basis provides a buffer, but discipline relies on conditions, not buffers. What do you think? Will SanDisk tonight "continue to raise guidance and push higher," or "have good numbers but the story is over"?
#闪迪存储业务高增长能否延续？ $SNDK #三星Q3营业利润创新高，净利润不及预期 Samsung's Q3 revenue reached 195.3 trillion KRW, operating profit 107.4 trillion KRW, both setting quarterly records; net profit was 75.13 trillion KRW, a year-on-year increase of 514.6%, but below market expectations. Storage business revenue and operating profit both hit new highs, with significant expansion in HBM4 sales. The company expects capital expenditure in the AI infrastructure sector to reach a historic high by 2027, with AI-driven demand growth far exceeding industry supply increases. SanDisk surged to $1400, but I'm not so optimistic about the upcoming earnings report this time
I'm leaning more towards SanDisk not beating expectations this time. The stock price has already risen too sharply in advance, and the market has long anticipated AI storage demand and NAND price increases. To deliver another surprise, the bar is quite high (the stock price is already this excited, so the earnings report better not disappoint).
SanDisk will release its earnings after the U.S. market closes on October 29, which is early morning October 30 Beijing time. Meanwhile, Google's earnings were released early this morning Beijing time, with the stock price plunging over 10% after hours. Advertising revenue and profits missed expectations, and AI investments have raised market concerns about returns. Although cloud business performed strongly, it couldn't stop the sell-off.
Data:
SNDK: surged 7.66% in the previous trading day, closing at $1404.77, officially surpassing $1400.
Company revenue guidance is $10.3 billion to $10.8 billion, with the market watching whether actual results can exceed this further.
Google: revenue of $127.6 billion, below market expectations of $128.2 billion.
Google: adjusted EPS of $2.67, also below the expected $3.02, with after-hours decline exceeding 10%.
SanDisk is in storage, which is different from Google's advertising business, but tech stock sentiment is inevitably affected.
My view remains bearish: I am not optimistic about SanDisk beating expectations this time. Good demand does not necessarily mean the earnings report will be impressive, especially since the stock price has already surged in advance. If the results are not bright enough, the stock could be hammered. $SNDK $GOOGL
#闪迪存储业务高增长能否延续？ #MicrosoftAzureGrows43
#MicrosoftQ1AzureSurges
#MicrosoftAzureGrows43 ☁️ Azure grows 43% in Q4 FY26, crosses $100B annual run rate for first time — clearest AI monetization test.
Commercial RPO $678B +84% (+25% ex-OpenAI), deep backlog, demand > capacity per mgmt. Guided 44-45% CC for Q1 FY27, actual Q1 printed 48% to $33.2B. Copilot >30M paid seats + usage billing shift.
JPM/MS/BNP targets $600-$725. Capex >$50B qtr guide, free cash flow watch. AI workloads finally converting to cloud $.$SNDK's promised operational strategy for today is here!
SanDisk's last quarter revenue increased by 372%, data center business by 437%, AI servers still have a strong demand for storage, and chip price hikes support the performance.
Although the performance looks great, the next quarter's guidance is below expectations, which is the most common pitfall in storage. The last earnings report met performance but had weak guidance, causing a sharp drop after hours.
Earnings expectations are already maxed out; regardless of whether the report meets expectations, the stock will fall. Lulu thinks the impact of sndk's earnings report on the market is minimal, at most there might be a pre-market spike, but the overall outlook remains bearish.
Lulu's bearish view remains unchanged; wait for the opening rebound to 1410 and short directly #美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 Bitcoin ETFs have seen over 400 million inflow in three days, while Ethereum ETFs are still experiencing outflows.
On Wednesday, the US spot ETH ETF had a net outflow of about $21.41 million.
The cumulative outflow in October has reached approximately $1.35 billion.
Fidelity's FETH actually saw an inflow of about $18.78 million that day, while the other firms combined had an outflow of about $40 million.
Among the six most traded ETH options on Deribit, five are puts, with strike prices ranging from 2280 down to 1500.
ETH is currently around 2300, down about 2% in the last 24 hours.
I think money is selective about coins, not completely exiting crypto.
BTC has buyers, ETH does not; this divergence is more worth watching than the price itself.
The options market is spending money on protection, indicating that big money is not rushing to bottom-fish.
At this point, I choose to observe, neither chasing nor rushing to sell.
If ETH ETFs turn to net inflows for two or three consecutive days and the price recovers above 2400, then my bearish view would be wrong.
If it effectively breaks below 2250, the next focus will be around 2000 where options are heavily concentrated.
Will you wait for ETF funds to flow back before buying, or start accumulating now in batches?
$ETH
#Ethereum #ETFfundflowsThe Federal Reserve Holds Steady, Facing Dual Tests at 80,000 and 2,300
The Federal Reserve voted 10 to 2 to keep interest rates unchanged, with even two voting members advocating for a rate hike, signaling a liquidity squeeze ahead. BTC is tugging at 80,000, ETH clings to the critical 2,300 line, and the ANTHROPIC contract is pushing the stalemate toward a dangerous edge.
$BTC: The Battle to Defend 80,000. After the decision, it dipped to 79,810 then pulled back. ETF net inflows over three days total 420 million but are highly concentrated in IBIT, with weak participation. MACD shows a bearish alignment; breaking below 80,000 targets 79,800, making a smooth one-sided move unlikely in the short term.
$ETH: 2,300 is the liquidation line. Between 2,300-2,315 lies the 200-day EMA and major whale cost bases, with about 200 million long liquidations buried below. One whale still holds nearly 79,000 long positions after liquidation, with liquidation prices at 2,299/2,286; breaking these could trigger a cascade. October ETH ETF net outflows reached 1.32 billion, putting pressure on the defense line.
$ANTHROPICUSDT: A high-leverage synthetic product. The $184.85 price is not equity but a bet on an unlisted AI valuation. It supports 10x leverage but lacks legal value, with limited depth; liquidations can be magnified exponentially when liquidity is thin.
Summary: Defense over offense. In a high-interest environment lacking incremental liquidity, 80,000 and 2,300 are clear observation lines, with focus on inflation easing and credit tightening signals. High-leverage synthetic products carry risks far exceeding those of mainstream coins.
#谷歌Q3营收增长，净利润下滑、每股收益不及预期 Microsoft's earnings exceeded expectations and should have boosted tech risk appetite, but KORU did not follow suit. I judge that funds are withdrawing from high-volatility assets despite the positive news, showing a short-term bearish bias. The price fell from 14.08 to 12.52, down 4.2% in 24 hours, with a turnover of 11.009 million indicating significant selling pressure. The four-hour chart shows a downtrend while the one-hour chart shows a rebound, indicating a weak recovery; the order book buy/sell ratio is 0.88 with sellers dominant, the funding rate at 0.0097% remains slightly bullish, and open interest at 1.087 million contracts shows no obvious reduction, so the bulls have not conceded and the game is not over. A light short position can be tried near 12.83 with a stop loss at 13.21 and a target of 12.11; if it pulls back to 12.13 and stabilizes, a short-term long position can be taken with a stop loss at 11.87 and a target of 12.79. Single position size should not exceed 20%, exit immediately if the position breaks.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wish you successful trading. —
$KORU#Google Q3 revenue growth, net profit decline, earnings per share below expectations
#Microsoft Q1 revenue growth, Azure growth rate at 48% exceeding expectations
$KORU HYPE spot trading volume at 18:00 jumped to about $17.18 million, while the previous hour was only about $240,000.
In the OKEx hourly chart, the price at 18:00 closed from 79.375 to 85.482, and at 19:00 it closed at 87.983, with the trading volume still around $12.32 million for that hour. Two consecutive hourly candles closed higher, and the volume was also much higher than before.
My judgment leans toward the short-term momentum not yet fading. The 19:00 volume was about $4.86 million less than at 18:00; just touching 88.023 intraday does not confirm the price has stabilized at a high level. The 19:00 close was still below this price.
I am more focused on whether the 20:00 close can hold above 85.482. If it falls back below, the recent continuation needs to be reassessed; if it remains above, then watch if the volume can continue to exceed about $240,000 at 17:00.
$HYPE $BTW This coin is already extremely inflated, with all the spot tokens held by the whales. The top 10 addresses hold 94%, the top 100 addresses hold 97%, not including the whales' insider trading. Retail investors basically have no tokens. The unlocked tokens are mostly given to investment institutions. Liquidity is only $1.65 million, causing extremely high slippage. The platform protocol income is only a few tens of thousands of dollars over 30 days, but the corresponding released market value is $18 billion. This kind of heavily controlled coin is just so willful; they play however they want, and no one can control it.$005930.KS, Why Does Samsung's Record-Breaking Profit Still Depend on Business Structure? Q3 revenue was 195.3 trillion KRW, operating profit 107.4 trillion KRW, with the semiconductor division contributing 106.5 trillion KRW, and the DX division recording an operating loss of 0.8 trillion KRW. AI memory demand is very strong, but profits are highly concentrated in chips. If storage profitability holds and phones and consumer electronics stabilize, breadth improves; if chip prices fall while other businesses remain weak, profit elasticity may reverse. $BTC is facing another bearish October! Spot demand has turned negative consecutively; can the bull market faith withstand the test?
$BTC has dropped about 4.2% this month, possibly marking the second consecutive year of a declining October. More concerning is that since October 14, spot demand has been negative daily, and the Coinbase premium has remained negative throughout the month.
What do these data indicate?
At the very least, they show that the current market does not exhibit particularly strong spot buying.
Many people like to watch the candlesticks, looking for support when prices fall and breakouts when prices rise. But what truly matters is whether there is sustained real demand behind the price.
If the rise is mainly driven by leverage and spot buying cannot keep up, then the rebound may lack sustainability. Once bullish confidence wanes, prices are likely to come under pressure again. $BTC
But one thing is realistic: you cannot dismiss all unfavorable data as noise just because you are optimistic about Bitcoin.
Long-term optimism and short-term caution can coexist.
Do you now believe more in BTC's long-term value, or are you more worried about the continued weakness in spot buying? #美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 #谷歌Q3营收增长，净利润下滑、每股收益不及预期 #微软Q1营收增长，Azure增速至48%超预期 It's almost 8:30 PM, and two major data points are coming out together: initial jobless claims plus the September core PCE.
The expected initial claims are between 198,000 and 200,000, with the previous value at 194,000, and the core PCE month-over-month at 0.3%.
As long as the employment data is around 200,000, it won't cause a big stir; tonight, the real market mover will be the PCE.
If the core PCE is equal to or above 0.3, inflation stickiness is confirmed, supporting expectations for a rate hike in December, and short-term pressure in the crypto market remains;
If it's below 0.3, inflation is easing, which could trigger a rebound opportunity.
My view is that the data is more likely to be strong, but there's no need to panic excessively; it's hard to push rate hike expectations to the max directly.
Remember, don't heavily bet on the data in advance; wait for the data to come out and see how the funds choose.
#美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 $BTC $ETH The evening market overall is slightly volatile and weak, with BTC currently priced at 80105.1, a slight drop of 0.52%. The market has entered a grinding phase, with bulls and bears temporarily tugging. ETH follows the broader market closely, slightly declining around 2322, showing strong correlation.
Most mainstream coins are weakening in sync, except OKB, which is slightly up against the trend, showing independent movement and resilience; SNDK has a relatively larger drop and more aggressive volatility.
Currently, there is no clear one-sided direction; it is a choppy consolidation market. This kind of back-and-forth market carries high risk of stop-loss triggers, so do not rush to heavily chase positions. Be patient and wait for a directional breakout, control your position size, maintain a steady mindset. In a volatile market, slow is fast. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 Bro, how many times has it bounced back now?｜Top 5 Altcoins by Gains Today (20:00)
$APR +21.45% (24h +28.91%). 1h price +8.08%, volume +23.80%, turnover +16.11% all advancing together, 4h volume +46.59%, volume 2.86 million, volume ratio 28.1 — the most synchronized in price, volume, and turnover.
$BEAT +20.65% (24h +22.52%). Nearly 1h price -1.78%, volume -7.28% retreating together, volume 5.38 million — money is pulling out after the surge.
$INIT +18.00% (24h +6.12%). 1h turnover -7.47% shrinking, price -1.10% falling back, 4h volume +20.32%, volume 2.89 million, turnover 133 million — taking a breather after the pump.
$BLEND +13.97% (24h +11.68%). 4h volume +235.87% looks scary, but volume is only 630k, a small volume, fee rate -0.27% pressed to extreme negative, nearly 1h price +1.75%, volume only +0.36% stagnating — small volume anomaly, just shaking.
$HYPE +10.15% (24h +8.04%). 1h volume +8.82%, turnover +35.87%, 4h volume +21.40%, volume 119 million, turnover 357 million big ticket — big ticket steady inflow."A 0.92% buffer against the daily fluctuations of $SNDK — this is the riskiest part of this trade."
$SNDK at 75x leverage, from 1354.3 to 1366.8, +69.22%. Conversely: it only needs to retrace about 0.12% for that 69% gain to vanish completely.
What does 0.12% mean for $SNDK? A normal downward wick, or even a large sell order on the order book. In other words, this trade doesn't require any fading of positive factors, a trend reversal, or even someone deliberately shorting — a purely technical pullback is enough to wipe it out.
75x leverage magnifies 0.92% into 69%, and likewise magnifies 0.12% into zero. It offers you huge returns but is always ready to take them back.
The market itself is holding up: price is running high. But the key support below is not far away.
So I never decide to exit based on "how much I've earned," only on how far the price is from my cost line. 0.92% looks like a buffer, but altcoin fluctuations never make sense.
The only move: push to break even, at worst lock in zero, and do not increase exposure. $BTC $ETH #美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 I opened a BTC long position near 80,000, and the reason is not "it has dropped too much and should rebound."
First, the bulls are not crowded. BTC funding rates on Binance are 0.0025%, OKX 0.0076%, both below the 0.01% benchmark, meaning there isn't a bunch of leveraged longs waiting to be liquidated. Going long is not a consensus trade.
Second, the shorts have fuel. Shorts account for 66.9% of the 24-hour total liquidations across the network, with BTC liquidations at 65.17 million, nearly 80% of which are shorts. Shorts are being squeezed, but the price hasn't continued to rally, indicating no forced large-scale short covering yet. Holding above 81,000, the thick short liquidation zone is near 82,000, which is a potential acceleration area.
Third, ETFs are providing support. BlackRock's IBIT received 3,441 BTC in a single day, about $277 million, with institutions accumulating near 80,000. But ETF holders' average cost is about 81,500, and the current price is just at this level, a battleground. Persistently closing below this level could bring redemption reflex risk.
My stop loss is very clear: 79,300 is the nearest dense long liquidation zone below; if broken, I admit being wrong and won't hold on. On the upside, first watch the 82,000 short zone; only after holding above that do I consider the 85,000-87,500 resistance zone.
Note, the total stablecoin market cap has shrunk by 6 billion in one month, and there is no new money off-exchange. So this is a range long, not a trend long. The long logic is "uncrowded bulls + short fuel + ETF support," not "a bull market is certain."
$BTC 18:00 With 27,980 contracts, the price was pushed from 1364 to 1381 and closed at 1378; at 19:00, only 9,229 contracts were used to pull it back to 1369 — spending three parts going uphill, but only one part going downhill, unable to hold the top.
04:00 The 87,669 contracts were the main highlight of the day: surged to 1421.2 (24h high) then smashed down to 1364 and closed at 1373, giving back 15 points of the upper shadow immediately.
09:00 Another 35,243 contracts smashed down to 1342, at 10:00 a further hit to 1338 closed at 1352 — the 24h low was hammered out, and the close was all above it.
11:00-15:00 Five bars with volumes between 6,910 and 17,662 contracts ground for five hours, no one made a move here.
Current price 1365.9 is stuck three points below MA20 at 1368.9, since 20:00 only 1,584 contracts traded.
$SNDK
1H candle closes above 1378 with volume ≥ 20,000 contracts → pullback to 1372~1375 to go long, stop loss at 1366, target 1393, risk-reward ratio 2.9
1H candle closes below 1364 with volume ≥ 20,000 contracts → rebound to 1368~1371 to go short, stop loss at 1377, targets 1346/1338, risk-reward ratios 2.9/3.9
(Not investment advice, trade at your own risk)My biggest trading lesson: never let FOMO make decisions for you. Missing a trade is better than entering blindly. Patience is a strategy, and protecting capital comes first. #AfricaTradingLessons #谷歌Q3营收增长，净利润下滑、每股收益不及预期
Google lost this No bet.
The market wanted diluted GAAP EPS to be above $3.10. The official figure came out at $2.12, far offline, so the Yes bet was dropped and those who bought No won.
Review:
Revenue was actually not bad: about $127.6 billion, roughly +25% year-over-year, and Cloud was very strong (Cloud roughly doubled in growth). Many people hearing the story might think "how could it miss expectations?"
But the contract only recognizes GAAP EPS. This quarter, other income was a loss (opposite to the huge equity gains last quarter), pulling down profit and EPS, so it couldn't reach 3.10.
At the opening, Yes was still around 60¢. The market priced "high probability to cross the line" too optimistically; the line was set at 3.10, while consensus expectations were not that high, plus investment income volatility made No more favorable.
The lesson is simple: first check if the settlement rule is GAAP or something else, then listen to the story.
Good revenue ≠ Yes for this market line. #Coinbase integrates Deribit, can Q3 revenue improve? This move is unlikely to change the short-term outflow pace of Bitcoin funds; I lean towards a bearish consolidation. Sell orders at 2434 outweigh buy orders at 1101, with a strength ratio of 0.45. The funding rate of 0.0072% shows bulls are still paying to hold positions. Open interest of 33,000 coin-based contracts has not withdrawn, more like high-level turnover rather than liquidation. Although the 1-hour chart shows a slight rise, the 4-hour chart has retraced 5.16% from the high; the rebound is a correction, not a reversal. Strategy: lightly short at a rebound to 80785, stop loss at 81265, target 78920; if it falls below 79666 with weak support, abandon bottom fishing, and keep single position size under 5%.
——This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wish you successful trading.——
$BTC #Google Q3 revenue growth, net profit decline, earnings per share below expectations
#Coinbase integrates Deribit, can Q3 revenue improve?
$BTC $PONS observation order broke the low point, first see if it can recover 0.2749
The 5-minute K-line just closed for PONS is at 0.2743 USDT, already below the reference low point of 0.2749 USDT at the time of observation. The observation order has changed from 0.296 USDT at 12:00 on 10-28 to 0.2741 USDT now, a change of -7.40%. I originally followed the high point for observation, now I need to first see if this position can hold back.
The recent 15-minute trading volume is 0.91 times the average of the previous 3-hour equal-length period, with no significant increase in activity. I do not consider this break below as trend confirmation, just that the reference range of the observation order has been broken. My choice is: if it can close above 0.2749 USDT later, I will re-evaluate; if it continues to close below, I will put this observation order aside for now. #谷歌云业务增长82%，AI投入回报如何？
My subjective judgment: The probability of a decline after the earnings report is about 55%, and the probability of an increase is about 45%. This is a subjective estimate based on current information, not the result of a statistical model.
There are three main reasons:
1. Market expectations are already high. The market expects Q3 revenue to be about $128 billion, with Google Cloud revenue expected to approach $29 billion. Even if the performance exceeds expectations, if the margin of excess is not large enough, the stock price may still fall.
2. AI capital expenditure is the biggest hidden risk. The 2026 capital expenditure guidance has been raised to $195 billion–$205 billion. If management continues to increase investment without providing clear return expectations, the market may choose to take profits.
3. Stock price reaction is more important than earnings numbers. The market looks not only at this quarter's performance but also at cloud business profit margins, free cash flow, and future guidance. The options market expects the stock price to fluctuate about 6% around the earnings report.
My trading inclination: short-term bearish, but I do not recommend heavy short positions directly. If the stock price rebounds weakly after the earnings release and breaks after-hours support, consider following the trend to short; if the cloud business significantly exceeds expectations and the stock price rises with volume, promptly abandon the bearish view.
In a word: I am more cautious about the realization of positive news rather than simply betting on underperformance. The key this time is not how much Google earned, but whether the market believes the AI investment can bring sufficient returns.美元指数升到102.43，BTC却还守在80,000上方、今天还涨了0.49%。这次谁更强？ 先说新闻。三个数字：美元指数102.43（+0.10%）、BTC 80,948.4（+0.49%、近一周 -4.25%）、黄金4,065.7（+0.68%）。资金侧：BTC ETF最新单日净流入1.115亿、5日净流出2,870万、10日净流入3.082亿。情绪侧：恐惧贪婪指数48到51。股市侧：标普500 7,722.6（+0.60%）。 再看资金影响。美元走强通常压制风险资产，但今天BTC和黄金都在涨——这说明资金流入的强度超过了汇率压力。这种情况在历史上并不常见，通常出现在美元走强来自其他货币疲软的时候，而不是美元自身需求上升。 对BTC的含义：这种韧性是积极的信号。如果美元继续走强而BTC仍能守住8万，说明买盘的结构在改善；如果美元走强导致BTC跌破79,220，那韧性就被证伪了。所以接下来的关键是：美元与BTC的负相关性能否维持。 我接下来盯四个指标：一是美元指数102.43是否继续走强；二是BTC能否守住79,220；三是ETF单日流入能否连续；四是黄金与BTC的涨幅差——黄金领先At the same table, Bitcoin is eating meat, while Ethereum doesn't even get to sip the soup.
The US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of $286 million over two days, $110 million on Monday and $176 million on Tuesday.
Last Thursday and Friday, $774 million was just withdrawn, so this rebound isn't slow; the net outflow for October has narrowed to only $26 million.
On the other hand, the Ethereum ETF had a net outflow of $149 million over two days, with a net outflow of $1.32 billion in October, marking the largest monthly outflow since November last year.
Institutions' actions speak louder than words: Bitcoin is a safe-haven position, while Ethereum is temporarily a cash cow.
I think this is not a matter of faith, but of sequence.
Money returns to Bitcoin first to stabilize above $80,000, then rotation can happen to Ethereum; if the sequence is wrong, bottom-fishing ends up halfway up the mountain.
Current price check: BTC around $81,275, up 1.8% in 24 hours; ETH around $2,361, up 2.1% in 24 hours.
Tonight, the Federal Reserve will announce the October decision; the market expects no change at 3.75%-4.00%, but the real focus is whether Powell will leave room for a rate hike in December.
If the decision leans hawkish, the recently returned $286 million might be half withdrawn first.
Source: SoSoValue data, reported by Cointelegraph on October 28; prices verified in real-time by CoinGecko, for reference only, not investment advice.
Which side are you on: wait for Bitcoin to stabilize before talking about rotation, or bet on Ethereum catching up now?
$BTC $ETH
#BitcoinETF #FedDecision The news about Sun Yuchen increasing his holdings in Mina, Celo, and RVN has already spread widely across major media and communities, but the authenticity of the news cannot be verified.
Tracing back to the source, it is his phrase "believe it exists, don't believe it doesn't." Without confirming the holdings or issuing a denial, this vague response leaves ample room for market imagination, which has been continuously forwarded and fermented, gradually spreading into a hot topic rumor across the entire network.
Mina, Celo, and RVN correspond respectively to ZK privacy, inclusive stablecoin payments, and PoW asset issuance tracks. They each have independent narratives but relatively small market caps and weak liquidity. After the news spread, it easily stirred market sentiment, amplifying the nature of capital speculation.
Before the news is confirmed, this phrase itself is the core of the entire rumor: believers take it as a positive signal, skeptics see it as hype rhetoric, and everything depends on the market's own interpretation. Weird! ETF keeps buying, but BTC can't hold above 81,000⚠️
BTC ETF inflow over three days totals 423.6 million USD
Almost all bought by IBIT, accounting for nearly 99%
Other ETFs basically have zero liquidity
On the other hand
Hedge funds simultaneously reduced about 68,000 BTC
ETF is buying, leveraged funds are selling!
Essentially, it's a turnover of existing holdings
Not new bullish capital
$ETH has outflows for three consecutive days
Totaling 170 million USD
ETF can only provide a floor and reduce volatility
Cannot support a trending market
Three days of inflows still can't fill the 200 million net outflow gap before October
Do you think this buying wave can hold the 80,000 level?
Just a personal market record, not investment advice
$BTC $ETH
#美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温
#谷歌Q3营收增长，净利润下滑、每股收益不及预期
#微软Q1营收增长，Azure增速至48%超预期 PCE data will be released at 8:30 PM. From an intuitive perspective, this data is not optimistic. For specifics, you can refer to the CPI and PPI data from two weeks ago, both of which leaned hawkish and hot narratives. After all, high oil prices have persisted for so long, especially diesel prices which affect the U.S. logistics industry and ultimately transmit to consumer goods, making it really hard to suppress.
However, thanks to the previous high CPI and PPI data that have already caused two waves of market shocks, as long as today's third wave isn't too extreme, the market can actually withstand it. It might even turn a disaster into a blessing if it's not ridiculously bad.
Currently, the market expects September core PCE to be 0.3% month-over-month and 3.1% year-over-year; overall PCE to be 0.5% month-over-month and 3.6% year-over-year. Against the backdrop of high oil prices, as long as the final published value is less than or equal to expectations, it's a victory (provided they don't play decimal rounding games).
If the PCE data is unexpectedly mild and dovish, the possible breakthrough point might occur in the processing of the airline ticket weight coefficient conversion. In any case, when the data is released, you can quickly judge the heat or coolness by checking whether the core monthly rate is 0.2% or 0.3%.
#美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 None of the three small coins made any big moves today 🤔
$HYPE 80.222, Hyperliquid is waiting for quarterly dividends 📊
Holding HYPE earns on-chain fee shares, quarterly dividends are in progress. At the 80.2 level, it bounced a bit from the low, but contract positions didn’t follow, indicating dividend expectations rather than new capital inflow. FOMC held steady, risk appetite showed no obvious change.
$BICO 0.01558, Account abstraction is waiting for killer apps 🔧
Biconomy helps users use on-chain products without remembering mnemonic phrases, 0.01558 rose 0.97% today. The direction is right but the market won’t pay for infrastructure; only when apps truly attract users will there be a chance. Risk appetite showed no obvious change after FOMC.
$BEAT 0.0798, Audiora audio copyright NFT is crashing 📉
Audiora creates audio copyright NFTs, sharing on-chain playback revenue with creators. It dropped 12.33% today because the funds that pumped it last round are withdrawing. This coin has a light market cap, so it rebounds fast but also falls fast. At 0.0798, don’t bottom fish lightly.
This article is for market analysis only and does not constitute investment advice.
#美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 $ETH Square criticizes ETH every day, saying it moves like an ECG.
Looking at the chain, Bitmine holds 6 million Ethereum, 86% of which is locked in the staking pool.
Big investors now purely treat it as an interest-bearing asset, with positions locked down and no intention to sell.
The market grinds on, but the circulating supply inside the market has actually been drained.
At this point, the shorts are completely holding on hard; when volume slightly increases one day, what will they use to cover?
#ETH
$ETH
👇The NYSE parent company is launching Hyperliquid US perpetual contracts, with HYPE rising from about 80 to around 87 in one day. The product list is still empty, so I'm not convinced by this move yet.
ICE and Trade[XYZ] are planning ICE[XYZ], building US 24-hour perpetuals on Hyperliquid infrastructure, covering stocks, indices, commodities, forex, and crypto, pending CFTC approval.
According to Trade.xyz, markets on Hyperliquid have traded over approximately $650 billion in the past year; ICE is also planning to invest, but the amount hasn't been disclosed.
Druckenmiller is also endorsing this round.
OKX current price is about 87.4, 24h high about 87.5, low about 78.2, Beijing daily open around 79.9.
The story is big, but who can trade, when it will launch, and which contracts will be listed are all still undecided.
To me, it looks more like a licensing narrative to boost sentiment first.
First, watch if it can hold around 83–85, don’t let it drop back to 80 in one breath; if 4H closes below about 80, consider this "US perpetual" story deflated for now.
Do you believe ICE entering can push HYPE’s valuation up a notch, or do you think it’s all just sentiment play before approval?
$HYPE
$BTC #美加稳定币监管推进，社区银行获邀入场 #ETF has been buying for three consecutive days, but $BTC still hasn't held above 81,000
The US spot Bitcoin ETF has seen a cumulative net inflow of $423.6 million over three days. The number alone isn't small, but BlackRock's IBIT has taken almost all of it, accounting for nearly 99%, while other products like Fidelity and Grayscale are basically zero.
Meanwhile, data from Galaxy Research shows that hedge funds have reduced their ETF exposure by about 68,000 $BTC during the same period, becoming the main force behind institutional outflows this round.
ETF is buying, leveraged funds are selling‼️
Retail investors and hedge funds are rotating holdings; ETF inflows are not new bullish capital but a reshuffling of existing chips.
At the same time, the Ethereum ETF has seen outflows for three consecutive days, totaling $170 million.
The role ETFs are playing now is that of a shock absorber; they can hold the bottom but cannot support the trend.
A $420 million inflow over three days still can't fill the previous hole compared to a net outflow of $200 million in October.
$BTC #BTC ETH spot ETFThe Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, in line with market expectations, but the statement's wording of "inflation remains high, and further rate hikes are not ruled out" put short-term pressure on $BTC causing volatility.
The core logic is simple: no rate cuts → no easing of dollar liquidity → high US Treasury yields → funds prefer "interest-bearing safe assets" over highly volatile BTC. So maintaining the status quo is not a major negative, but "higher rates for longer" will continue to suppress the crypto market until rate cut expectations truly emerge.
In the short term, BTC is likely to remain range-bound with leveraged funds sensitive and prone to sharp spikes up and down. The medium-term trend depends on two variables: first, whether US CPI, non-farm payrolls, and other data cool down; second, the flow of spot BTC ETF funds — sustained net inflows are the signal for a market restart.
In summary: no surprises or shocks, but in a "tight monetary" cycle, Bitcoin is unlikely to have an independent major rally; patience is needed to wait for a liquidity turning point.
#美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 HYPE This surge is not just in price, but a correction of valuation discount.
Hyperliquid Strategies (PURR) mNAV has returned above 1, about 1.011, representing a net asset premium of approximately 1.1%. Net asset value per share is $10.81, quoted at $10.93, corresponding to about $85.96 for HYPE.
Simply put, mNAV reflects how much the market is willing to pay for a shell holding HYPE. Below 1 means a discount, no one is willing to pay for this exposure; above 1 means buyers start to compete, marking the transition from cold to hot.
The catalyst is news: ICE, the parent company of the NYSE, plans to cooperate with Trade.xyz to introduce perpetual contracts into the regulated US market. Perpetuals are the most profitable and sensitive segment of on-chain derivatives, previously only available offshore. Now, with a mainstream exchange group willing to operate under compliance, the entire sector is being repriced, and $HYPE is breaking through $87 accordingly.
A reminder: the 1.1% premium is very thin; a moderate bearish candle can push mNAV back below 1. Returning above 1 does not mean it has stabilized. Premiums rely on sentiment, discounts on redemption pressure; repeated friction around 1 is normal. Don’t mistake a single breakthrough as trend confirmation. To follow this line, wait for a pullback near net asset value for a more stable entry.MicroStrategy (Strategy) passed a resolution on the 28th that its STRF, STRC, STRK, and STRD will all switch to daily dividends.
Among them, STRC will start on November 1, and STRF / STRK / STRD will take effect from January 1, 2027.
Dividends are calculated every calendar day (including weekends and holidays) and paid on the next business day. The annualized dividend rate remains unchanged, only the dividend frequency is adjusted.
Changing from semi-monthly/quarterly to daily is mainly to reduce price volatility caused by ex-dividend dates, allowing STRC to more stably maintain around $100, optimizing the holding experience, and making STRC closer to a high-yield USD instrument that can sustain financing.
The company currently has about $5.08 billion in USD reserves + cash, and the official website shows it can cover about 3.4 years of dividend and interest payments for $MSTR October 29 four-hour structure bottom divergence, subsequent market analysis:
The four-hour ETH candlestick is currently right at the Bollinger middle band at 2333. The most critical signal is that the MACD's DIF has already crossed above the DEA, and the red bars are starting to expand, marking the first sign of a bullish rebound at the four-hour level. But to pour cold water: the EMA30 above is at 2350, EMA60 at 2376, pressing down layer by layer, and the price hasn't even reclaimed EMA15 yet, indicating the rebound is currently just an oversold correction, not a trend reversal.
Short-term trading suggestions:
$BTC: Long near 79900-79400, target: around 80800-81600, stop loss: 500 points.
$ETH: Long near 2310-2290, target: around 2350-2390, stop loss: 40 points. $MAGIC MAGIC PRINTED A 0.16387 WICK, NOW SITS AT 0.08457. Volume peaked around that spike, then faded. Yet 30D still shows +62.47% against 7D at -8.43%. I respect how quickly timeframes disagree.
Does the 24h range of 0.08132–0.08524 reflect digestion or exhaustion after the drop? 🚨 SanDisk $SNDK surged 7.66% yesterday, but suddenly plunged pre-market today! Is the main force preparing to take profits?
This SanDisk rally is getting more and more exciting!
📈 Yesterday's close: $1404.77
🔥 Yesterday's gain: +7.66%
📉 Pre-market today: around $1370, down over 2%
Yesterday was a bull party, but pre-market today has started to give back profits!
More importantly, after the U.S. stock market closes tonight, SanDisk is about to release a major earnings report!
SK Hynix's performance is strong, AI storage demand remains hot, so SanDisk should benefit, but the stock price has already pulled back in advance.
My personal judgment: cautious short-term bearish, but not bearish on the mid-to-long-term storage industry.
What really matters in this earnings report is not just how much money was made, but the future NAND prices, profit margins, and performance guidance!
If the earnings beat expectations, the stock price could retest $1500.
But if the market has already priced in the good news, even good results could trigger a violent sell-off!
The biggest risk now is not being wrong on direction, but rushing in with high leverage to bet on the earnings report!
This time with SanDisk, I'd rather earn a little less than risk principal when the direction is unclear.
The real big move might come after tonight!
$SNDK Conclusion first: The global stablecoin total supply shrank by $60.8 billion over 30 days, with a recent single-day drop of $13 billion — the largest single-day decline in nearly 30 days. But the money hasn't left; it has moved from on-chain to ETFs.
DefiLlama daily series: On 10-29, global stablecoins stood at $300.297 billion, down $1.305 billion in one day, and down $6.079 billion over 30 days, $15.2 billion less than the peak of $315.5 billion on 5/17. The biggest shrinkage was in USDT: down $998 million in one day, $1.8 billion over 7 days, current price 0.99902.
Independent source Stablecoin Beat aligns: 30-day net outflow of $7.8 billion, USDT share 60.8%, signaling "net redemption."
On the opposite side: BTC spot ETFs have had net inflows for 3 consecutive days totaling $424 million, with October cumulative turning positive at +$111 million.
So the volume shrinkage is not funds leaving the market, but a change in the container.
For your wallet: On OKX, USDT savings yield 4.00% annualized, USDC 3.50%; USDC-USDT spot at 1.00097, USDC still at a premium of 9.7 basis points.
Do you trust the total supply or the ETF more? $USDT SanDisk $SNDK will release its earnings report at 4:30 AM. As retail investors, what opportunities can we seize?
Everyone can probably see the strong rebound in storage recently. It's very strong because the market has been speculating on the upcoming early morning expectations, which have basically met or exceeded expectations, so funds have bought in early to push the price up.
Here’s the key point: once the positive news is confirmed, there is a high probability of a significant pullback. Many retail investors might wait until after the announcement to go long and position themselves, but that’s exactly when institutional whales exit [because there’s no further speculative value]. Today’s Google is the best example. As for Hynix $SKHYNIX not falling, it’s because SanDisk is the last to report earnings; tomorrow the waterfall drop can be expected.
If you don’t believe it, just let time prove it.
The above is just a personal opinion and does not constitute any investment advice.
#霍尔木兹重开方案浮现，油价回落能否持续？ #美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 A vacuum box is drawn between 77,781 and 82,614.
$BTC current price is 79,749, falling below 80,000 once again. Liquidations in 24 hours reached 337 million, with longs and shorts evenly split 50/50, neither side gaining an advantage. But Fibonacci doesn't lie: from 62,280 to 87,363 in this rally, the 0.382 retracement is at 77,781, 0.5 at 74,821. The 0.618 level above is at 82,614; since the daily chart lost the 50-day moving average, that level has flipped from support to a strong resistance. The price is now stuck between 77,781 and 82,614, neither rising nor falling, exactly the worst odds vacuum zone.
Capital flow is undermining the market. ETF inflows over three days total 420 million, seemingly recovering, but 136 million comes from just one IBIT, leaving net inflows over two weeks at only 67 million. ETF holders' average cost is 81,500, with price lying below, and incremental buying nearly zero. Funding rates are 0.0025% on Binance and 0.0076% on OKX, both below the 0.01% benchmark; longs are not crowded, shorts haven't pressed up — both sides are waiting. Below at 79,300 there is a nearby long magnet, while above at 82,000 there is a thick short resistance.
If the daily closes back above 82,614, the 0.618 flips bullish, then space above 83,500 can be discussed; if the daily volume breaks below 77,781, the 0.382 is lost, and the 0.5 retracement at 74,821 comes directly into range. Between 79,000 and 82,000, no action.#谷歌Q3营收增长，净利润下滑、每股收益不及预期
**Google Q3: Revenue Up, Profit Down, EPS Misses Expectations**
Alphabet's Q3 2026 revenue was $127.58 billion, up 25% year-over-year but below the expected $128.22 billion; GAAP net profit was $26.17 billion, down 25% year-over-year; diluted EPS was $2.12, versus an expected approximately $3.02, a clear miss.
There are two main reasons for the profit pressure:
1) **Equity investment portfolio loss of $8.66 billion** (fluctuations in holdings like SpaceX), dragging down net profit and EPS;
2) **AI infrastructure spending is burning cash heavily**: Q3 capital expenditure was $51.36 billion, free cash flow was negative $9.07 billion, negative for two consecutive quarters.
Business differentiation is very clear:
- Google Cloud revenue was $30.71 billion, up 103% year-over-year, with an operating margin soaring to 36.2%, the biggest highlight;
- Search at $63.35 billion (+12%) and YouTube ads at $11.21 billion (+9%) both missed expectations, the advertising cash machine is starting to slow down.
After-hours stock price dropped more than 10% at one point. The market is not afraid of Google lacking growth, but fears that **AI investments keep piling up, with returns first showing in the cloud, while the core advertising business slows down**.$LIT is trading at 2.9887 (+1.72%), near 24h high between 2.7496 and 3.0772.
Price is above MA5 (2.9817), MA10 (2.9423) and MA20 (2.8958), with low at 2.7830 then steady uptrend to spike at 3.0696, followed by pullback to 2.95, bullish structure intact with volume spike on 15m.
With 15.63M volume and 46.72M USDT turnover, Today +1.72% and 7D -11.80% and 30D -23.99% vs 90D +44.42% and 180D +228.87%, holding above 2.9817 keeps push toward 3.0696 high, breakdown below 2.9423 would slow momentum.Heavy short positions! On-chain whale's triple short orders are simultaneously under pressure, continuously recovering losses through funding fees
📊 Complete position breakdown
✅ BTC short position｜5X full margin
Position: -2628.81 BTC, position value 210 million U
Entry price: 76366.1 U
Unrealized P&L: -10.0731 million U
Funding fee income: +3.3008 million U
Margin: 42.1651 million U, liquidation price: 136862.78 U
✅ ETH short position｜5X full margin
Position: -106,400 ETH, position value 250 million U
Entry price: 2322.74 U
Unrealized P&L: -463,600 U
Funding fee income: +4.4096 million U
Margin: 49.5289 million U, liquidation price: 3715.59 U
✅ SOL short position｜7X full margin
Position: -721,200 SOL, position value 72.4915 million U
Entry price: 94.3346 U
Unrealized P&L: -4.4606 million U
Funding fee income: +3.8786 million U
Margin: 10.3559 million U, liquidation price: 302.16 U
Core
This whale is simultaneously betting on triple shorts for BTC, ETH, and SOL. Currently, the market is trending upward, and all three short positions are in unrealized loss.
However, it is worth noting that all three positions are continuously collecting funding fees to hedge against unrealized losses. The leverage is not aggressive, and the liquidation prices are far from the current prices, providing a sufficient safety buffer. GDP+PCE validate the Fed policy direction during the Wash era, how much direct threat does the December rate hike trade still pose? In the early morning, Wash's speech emphasized economic resilience and inflation concerns. Tonight happens to be the release of the US Q3 GDP data and September PCE data, further consolidating the Wash era's policy guidance for the Fed! Priority is on PCE, not looking at nominal data, but at how strong the secondary transmission of past energy to September inflation is, looking at core inflation monthly rate, service sector inflation, rent increases, which will further increase the probability of a December rate hike. In his early morning speech, Wash emphasized a data-driven Fed policy framework. Secondly, Wash does not accept "soft inflation," stating the Fed will not change inflation expectations. Most importantly, Wash said the Fed can tolerate energy's impact on nominal inflation (CPI shock), but cannot tolerate secondary transmission to core inflation (PCE). According to this expectation, if tonight's GDP meets expectations and maintains growth, and September PCE rises as expected, then the probability of a December rate hike will increase again. Currently, the December rate hike probability is 85.4%. #美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 How much direct threat does the December rate hike still pose to the market? The September inflation rise has actually been anticipated by the market through previous CPI data, and the December rate hike has been priced in by the market for nearly a month. Although the previous highest probability was only 70%, the long-term, certain pricing logic has instead allowed the market to digest in advance and complete expectation pricing. Therefore, tonight's biggest Both went bankrupt
But the outcomes differ by a huge margin
BlockFi and Bittrex got back 100%
Babel and Haru still have 0 to this day
The only difference is whether your money was kept separately,
or lent out and mixed together with others' fundsTonight at 20:30, GDP+PCE will be released simultaneously. Wash's pause is just halftime — check this test paper for the December path. The market is stuck grinding at 80,000: Polymarket closing $BTC still stands above 80,000 about 60%, touching 81k about 40%, pulling back to 79k about 25%. Don't chase the noise during the event window; do you trust the threshold to hold, or will it be pressed down a bit more first? Some say that a company buying Bitcoin is just gambling. I think you can't just look at what was bought; you have to see where the money comes from. Keeping enough cash for operations and slowly accumulating is different from borrowing money to buy and hoping the price rises to pay off debt—that's a whole different story. I wouldn't increase my own regular investments just because the company bought in; the announcement can't shield me from drawdowns. But I'm quite curious—if the boss says to hold long-term, how do they discuss this in meetings when shareholders are eager for performance?$RENDER
Decentralized GPU infrastructure has a compelling use case as AI workloads expand, but the economics deserve more attention than the narrative. Render connects distributed GPU resources with rendering and compute demand, creating a marketplace whose long-term strength depends on actual workloads. The important distinction is between speculative interest in AI tokens and recurring demand for the underlying service.$ARB
Arbitrum’s challenge is no longer simply demonstrating that Ethereum can scale through rollups. The bigger question is whether its ecosystem can retain users when competing Layer-2 networks offer similar execution advantages. Developer tools, liquidity depth, and application quality matter here. Network adoption and ARB token demand are separate variables, and conflating them can lead to an incomplete view of the ecosystem.