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The Fed is not hawkish, but crypto prices are hawkish: BTC faces an 80,000 sell wall overhead, ETH ETF lost 270 million in five days, SOL's 100-dollar defense line pierced by a whale
The Fed remains on hold, but two members advocate for a rate hike, and risk appetite has not loosened.
$BTC has buy orders at 80,000, but the sell wall above is thicker
Geopolitical conflicts push oil prices to test $102, inflation expectations weigh on risk assets. 79,890 is the intraday low; if broken, the pullback deepens; only breaking above the 80,022 sell wall allows room for recovery.
$ETH broke 2,300, and ETFs are still withdrawing
Spot ETF net outflow of $276.4 million over a week, with only a net inflow recorded on the 23rd. The Fed changed its economic description from "steady" to "strong," the anti-inflation task is unfinished, and buyers are reluctant to catch the falling knife at this level. 2,275 is the next key level to watch.
$SOL lost the $100 mark, ETFs and whales are working together
On October 27, redemptions hit 19.16 million in one day, the worst day since last December. ETFs are withdrawing, whales are running, 96 to 100 is the last support zone; if it fails, the breakout narrative at 104 to 105 is completely invalidated.
Summary: BTC depends on whether the 80,022 sell wall can be eaten through with volume, ETH on whether 2,300 can be reclaimed, and SOL on whether 96 to 100 can hold against the dual selling pressure from ETFs and whales.
Falling every day, really miss the days when we ate meat and hotpot every day
#Strategy财报前瞻：BTC账面收益大幅反弹 Intercontinental Exchange is preparing to launch a Hyperliquid-based perpetual futures market in the United States. Upon the news, HYPE saw a short-term rally.
Hyperliquid is the most representative on-chain perpetual contract platform, with matching, clearing, and positions all completed on-chain. Now, an institution operating multiple established futures exchanges plans to integrate its product into a US-regulated contract market. This is not just a regular listing; it represents a positive integration of traditional derivatives systems with on-chain liquidity.
On-chain capital reacts faster than price. Within half an hour, 12 whales opened new positions worth millions of dollars: 9 longs totaling approximately $29,317,300, 3 shorts about $8,043,500, net long $21,273,800. The most aggressive address built a long position of 150,000 HYPE, valued at $12,753,600, with an unrealized profit of $383,500. This bet is not on the hype of a single news item but on the expectation that this compliance channel will remain open continuously.
On the other hand, once perpetual liquidity is diverted through regulated channels, the fee rates and token capture ability of native on-chain platforms will need to be re-evaluated. The leading premium on HYPE must face scrutiny from traditional exchanges.
In the short term, whales are backing the longs with real money; in the medium term, the key lies in licensing and genuine trading volume. News can push the price, but whether the channel truly opens is the core of $HYPE's future valuation.【Market Real-Time Quotes】$BTC fluctuates around $81,290 (+0.51%), $ETH at $2,360 (+0.45%). The Fear & Greed Index is 51, neutral. The market entered a consolidation phase after the Federal Reserve held steady, while Strategy's bold claims are pushing the narrative of “corporate coin hoarding” to an extreme test. 👇 First, the data and original statements: 📊 Holdings: Strategy currently holds 848,517 $BTC**, accounting for over 4% of the total network supply, with an overall average cost of about **$75,446, and a total investment of approximately $64 billion. 📉 Real unrealized loss: $BTC has surpassed the 2026 cost line of $78,900, but if all purchases since 2025 and sales near this summer's low are combined, the comprehensive cost is still as high as about $90,600, so the current price remains in an unrealized loss state. 🗣️ CEO's ambition: Phong Le clearly stated that Strategy's goal is to become the largest company in the world and claimed the company holds the most Bitcoin. He also said that daily dividends will help Strategy issue the “world's strongest digital credit,” improve STRC, build the best equity MSTR, thereby increasing Bitcoin holdings and Bitcoin per share (BPS). The subtext of this statement is more important than the literal meaning. A company whose main business is business intelligence software shouting to be the largest globally is relying not on products or revenue, but on the 8 on its books $OKB OKB's order book is honestly laughable.
The daily trading volume is just over $700,000, and the market makers don't even bother canceling orders anymore; they simply give up on maintaining the order book.
Big players have completely stopped playing inside, turning it into a coin no one manages. The market is purely driven by small retail orders barely moving the water; even a slight selling pressure causes a continuous decline. With liquidity drying up like this, whoever takes the position is bound to get stuck.
#OKB
$OKB
👇#The Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady, December rate hike disagreements intensify Data as of 19:45: Bitcoin 80,146, down 1.48% in 24 hours, intraday low 79,675; Ethereum 2,323, down 1.63%; LINK 11.59. On the night the decision was made, it surged from 80,600 to 81,027, then slid back during the Asian session—this back and forth isn’t because someone is choosing a direction, but because no one dares to make the first move. Here's a counterintuitive point: the central bank held steady this time, yet the pricing on the trading floor for a December rate hike was pushed to around 90%. The market isn’t betting the central bank will make a mistake, but is betting on oil prices—Brent above 111, West Texas 102, with friction in the Strait of Hormuz, the energy factor alone has changed the inflation arithmetic. Are you holding a long position waiting for the 20:30 reading, or sitting out to watch? The vote was 10 to 2, with those two votes for a rate hike—one from the board and one from a regional Fed president. The chair specifically said at the press conference: political considerations played no role in this decision, with no mention of politics or elections throughout. Things that need to be actively denied usually mean someone outside is asking. During the election cycle, the White House wants low oil prices and a quiet market, while the central bank wants to maintain inflation credibility; wanting both means real interest rates must stay high—no one will be responsible for the bulls’ positions in this. Another detail most people missed: starting next autumn, policy meetings will be cut from eight times a year to six.Thursday, 2026.10.29
The Federal Reserve interest rate decision was released, maintaining the rate unchanged. The Fed's restraint on inflation has not relaxed, and the expectation for future rate hikes remains hawkish, so the possibility of a rate hike in December still exists and the probability is increasing. Therefore, the market overall continues to decline after a rebound.
On October 28, Bitcoin ETF net inflow was 137 million, Ethereum ETF net outflow was 21.4 million. Today's ETFs are expected to turn to outflows. By the way, Ethereum ETFs have had net outflows for four consecutive days.
Market Analysis
Bitcoin rebounded to around 81,800 yesterday but then faced resistance and fell. Bitcoin has been weak recently, not following the rise but instead falling, which indicates the bears are controlling the market. The market now shows a pattern of rising one day and possibly falling within 2 hours, which fits a bearish market. Therefore, it is still advisable to sell and short on rebounds. The 75,000-76,000 range remains a strong support level.
Altcoins are not mentioned recently. In a poor market environment, even a dead cat bounce in altcoins is a trap. Now is a time to wait and observe.
Regarding US stocks, especially AI stocks, this rebound is, in my opinion, a good opportunity to exit or do T trading. Although the decline in US stocks will not be as immediate as Bitcoin's, the level reached last Friday is likely not the true bottom based on the current trend.
Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index: 43 (Neutral) Bitcoin and Ethereum are telling two different stories through ETF flows.
Between Oct. 26 and Oct. 28, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $423.6M in net inflows, while spot Ethereum ETFs recorded $170.2M in net outflows.
That creates a $593.8M flow gap in Bitcoin’s favor across the three sessions.
📊 Daily breakdown:
• Oct. 26: BTC +$110.3M | ETH −$88.6M
• Oct. 27: BTC +$176.0M | ETH −$60.2M
• Oct. 28: BTC +$137.3M | ETH −$21.4M$TRUMP Why didn't the Fed raise interest rates, yet Trump Coin plummeted?
1. The Fed did not raise rates but sent a hawkish signal
On October 28, the Federal Reserve announced it would keep interest rates unchanged in the 3.75%–4% range.
But several details are worth noting:
* Among the 12 voting members, 2 advocated for a 25 basis point rate hike.
* The Fed believes U.S. economic activity remains strong and inflation is still elevated.
* Market expectations for a rate hike in December have increased.
According to market reports on October 29, traders' probability expectations for a 25 basis point hike in December rose to about 79.8%, up from 73.4% a week earlier.
What does this mean?
The market might have originally expected the Fed to signal easing, but the result is: no rate hike now does not mean no rate hike later.
If the market believes rates may be higher in the future, investors might reduce allocations to high-risk assets.
Trump Coin is a typical politically narrative-driven meme coin, especially sensitive to market sentiment.
2. Positive news was priced in early, funds choose to take profits and exit
This is the second reason to consider.
Assuming the market had already anticipated no rate hike before the meeting, some funds might have bought in advance.
When the official announcement came:
1. The positive news was already priced in.
2. New buying pressure was insufficient to push prices higher.
3. Short-term traders began to take profits.
4. Price declines triggered leveraged long stop-losses or forced liquidations. This storage supercycle has shifted from a "broad-based price increase" to a structurally differentiated market: HBM and server-grade NAND continue to be driven by AI computing power, with supply and demand remaining tight; meanwhile, demand for consumer storage such as PC and mobile phones is weak, and the momentum for price increases has clearly slowed, which is the core reason for the recent sector volatility. Currently, DRAM and NAND contract prices still maintain an upward trend, but the month-on-month increase has significantly narrowed compared to the first half of the year, representing a high-level plateau rather than a cycle peak. Major manufacturers continue to allocate over 70% of advanced capacity to HBM and enterprise-grade SSDs, prioritizing long-term agreements (LTA) with cloud providers like Microsoft, Google, and Meta, locking in capacity for the next two years, further squeezing consumer supply and creating a "strong AI, weak consumer" pattern. Sector divergence is widening: bulls are betting on the HBM4 iteration and continued capital support from cloud providers, with the supply-demand gap lasting until 2027; bears worry about high valuations and large prior gains, fearing that if cloud providers cut storage purchases, prices and profits will quickly fall. 1. Summary of already released core financial reports SK Hynix ($SKHYNIX, before market on 10.28) Q3 revenue was 104.6 trillion KRW, up 328% year-on-year, operating profit was 83.33 trillion KRW, up 632% year-on-year, with profit margins reaching a historic high. Highlights: Signed long-term supply agreements with 14 leading cloud providers, locking in over half of capacity for 2027–2028, with HBM4 deliveries underway; also launched large dividends and buybacks, exceeding shareholder return expectations. Risks: Li$BTC surged overnight, then was pushed below 80,000 during the day and circled around there, now hovering around $80,200, down about 1.5% in 24 hours. ETH, SOL, and XRP have fallen even more 📉
Let's first review the timeline. At 2 a.m., the Federal Reserve held steady, keeping rates between 3.75% and 4%, but in the 10-to-2 vote, two members wanted an immediate rate hike, and Waller gave no clear guidance. BTC briefly surged to around 81,700, while market bets on a December rate hike heated up, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield returned above 5%.
By the Asian morning session, Samsung's chip earnings missed expectations, its stock dropped over 5%, tech stocks weakened collectively, and BTC subsequently fell below 80,000, hitting a low near 79,700. Over $300 million in liquidations occurred across the network in 24 hours, mostly longs.
Interestingly, spot ETFs still saw a net inflow of about $137 million on Wednesday, the third consecutive day, with almost all purchases by BlackRock IBIT.
Next, consider two scenarios: if BTC reclaims above 80,000, it may indicate ETF buying is absorbing macro sell pressure; if tech stocks continue to fall and U.S. Treasury yields keep rising, BTC could be dragged further down.ETH's current trend is very similar to BTC, with the overall trend still bearish, dropping and then oscillating back and forth at a low level.
The daily moving averages are all pressing down on the price, with each high lower than the last, and the major bearish structure remains unchanged. Although the hourly chart held at the 2292 low and rebounded slightly upward, the volume does not support it, so this recovery strength is very limited.
Focus now on the support zone between 2280-2290 below; if it holds, it means a long period of sideways consolidation at the bottom! If this level cannot hold, a new round of decline will begin.
The key resistance above is at 2391; only by firmly standing above this level is a decent rebound possible. For now, treat this as a consolidation market $BTC $ETH $SOL
#美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 $AMZN, tonight's earnings report: is the market more concerned about AWS demand or investment returns? Amazon confirmed it will release Q3 results after the U.S. market closes on October 29. AI infrastructure and cloud revenue will be scrutinized alongside retail profits. If AWS growth, operating profit, and cash flow all improve simultaneously, capital expenditures will be easier to justify; if investments continue to accelerate but cloud monetization falls short, revenue growth alone will struggle to support the valuation.#DTCC证券代币化服务正式上线
"DTCC Drives $30 Trillion Assets On-Chain"
DTCC has officially launched its securities tokenization service, initially offering 34 stocks, ETFs, and government bonds as a pilot, covering an asset pool of about $30 trillion.
Twenty institutions including JPMorgan Chase and Citibank have already signed on. Depository securities are converted 1:1 into on-chain tokens, preserving all rights while enabling real-time, around-the-clock transfers.
Tokens first run on Canton and private Besu chains; essentially, this is an internal Wall Street efficiency upgrade. The real highlight will be the subsequent actual settlement and collateral flow data. $BTC 2:00 AM is just the beginning, 2:30 AM is actually the $BTC candle
2:00 AM is the decision, 2:30 AM is the market
The probability of a rate hike is about 7%, and no move is almost certain. The real pricing in words and whispers: needs an explanation of "why stop now," while at the same time keeping the option "hike in December possible." The market has priced in a rate hike in December at over 70%. If the press conference considers the "pause" just a comma, risk assets will come under pressure; and if it deliberately downplays the future path, this is the marginal turning point. Also look at the opposing voices: 2Capital Flow: ETF is bleeding, Strategy is "shifting," but the underlying structure remains intact
📉 The most direct marginal pressure comes from ETFs: In October, the total net outflow of spot Bitcoin ETFs across the U.S. was about 665.2 million, driving a total market inflow of 635.5 million, marking the largest in nearly four months. The incremental buying from the ETF channel has not yet resumed as a continuous, stable positive inflow.
⚠️ The "pause" in Strategy needs to be correctly understood: Strategy's purchases dropped to zero in the third week of October, with funds prioritized for repurchasing STRC preferred shares with an annual dividend yield as high as 12%—just from October 19 to 25, 640.5 million was spent reducing holdings to 75,446 shares, still floating a profit of about 6% at the $80,000 price level, meaning it has not exited the market.
📈 The key buffer in the underlying structure: Actual losses have decreased from the August low of 27 million, and panic selling is nearly over. The entire network has realized prices around 49,000, providing more than a 30% buffer from the current price. The foundation of the bull market has not cracked. The current tug-of-war is a chip handover between "high-level ETF buyers exiting after breaking even" and "long-term holders at low levels holding firm." $BTC $ETH $ZEC #霍尔木兹重开方案浮现，油价回落能否持续？ Regulatory side: Brazil's largest private bank Itaú Unibanco has "filed" under the central bank's new regulations, becoming the first bank to officially conduct crypto trading + custody—not a new license application, but an authorized institution following a notification procedure before the 10/30 deadline.
It has been selling coins since the end of 2023, currently about fourteen or fifteen assets (including BTC/ETH/USDC), with trading + custody aligned with the "brokerage" classification. The key point: Latin America's largest bank is incorporating existing business into a compliance framework, which ≠ instant mass account openings, ≠ immediate doubling of trading volume, and certainly not a price stance.
Filing ≠ new product launch; bank notification path ≠ independent VASP authorization application. Media/regulatory disclosure tone, confidence medium-high. What do you think about Latin America's major banks becoming compliant—does it add to the "bank gateway" narrative, or is it something that should have happened long ago? $BTC $ETH $USDC Tonight at 20:30, initial jobless claims and September PCE data will be released simultaneously.
Market expectations: initial claims around 198,000–200,000 (previous value 194,000), core PCE month-over-month 0.3%, year-over-year 3.1%.
The logic is simple: employment looks at whether layoffs are rising, inflation looks at whether stickiness is confirmed. As long as initial claims remain near 200,000, the impact is limited; the real direction is determined by whether core PCE reaches or exceeds 0.3%.
My view: the data is more likely to be strong or meet expectations, which will continue to support the December rate hike expectations. In the short term, the impact on risk assets is slightly neutral to bearish, but it won't push the rate hike probability close to 100% directly. The key is still the actual reading of core PCE.
$BTC $HYPE has an unlock scheduled for early November, and the team's data activity shows that the token economy currently has about 222 million HYPE in circulation (22.2% of the total supply), with most tokens still locked. The system rates the supply pressure as high (pressure score 75): • Next unlock: 2026-11-06, categorized under team & founders, approximately 9.917 million tokens, equivalent to 4.46% of the current circulating supply; • On-chain monitoring shows that on October 28, the team-related address (HyperLabs) applied to redeem about 180,000 HYPE from staking (approximately $14.49 million), expected to arrive on November 4. Historically, this has been handled OTC through the market maker Flowdesk — meaning there will be a continuous token release window in early November. Given the already small circulating supply and limited liquidity, such concentrated unlocking usually creates real selling pressure on the price, especially near rebound neckline levels, warranting caution.Hawkish pause, bulls failed to take over
BTC 81,340 (+0.53%), ETH 2,359 (+0.39%). After the decision, BTC surged to 81,823 but met resistance and pulled back, fear and greed index at 51.
Macro pressure remains. The Fed's 10-to-2 vote maintained rates unchanged, with two members advocating for a hike. Walsh emphasized high inflation; the hawkish pause limits the upside for risk assets.
Leverage and funding: 24h total liquidations on the network reached 259 million, shorts accounted for 156 million, the rebound was driven by short covering, lacking new capital inflows. BlackRock IBIT bought 151 million, but overall ETF inflows slowed, and some earlier inflows have partially withdrawn.
Key levels:
BTC support at 80,700-81,000, break below targets 80,000; resistance at 81,500-81,750, only a steady break signals upside.
ETH support at 2,323, resistance at 2,391, reclaiming this level would indicate escaping weakness.
In short: Hawkish pause suppresses space, capital inflows slow, and bulls fail to take over. Do not chase longs; wait for BTC to hold above 81,750 or ETH to reclaim 2,390 before lightly testing longs. ARK Invest made a major buy-in after Robinhood dropped 23%, marking the largest scale in six months. This news is circulating in the stock community, but it's truly worth a look for crypto players.
Robinhood is not an ordinary broker. In its revenue structure, crypto trading contributes a significant portion; retail trading fees for BTC, ETH, and SOL directly determine its quarterly reports. So its stock price essentially serves as a leading indicator of retail trading enthusiasm.
Now that this indicator has dropped 23%, ARK has increased its position at this level, and to the largest extent in half a year. Cathie Wood's style has always been to buy more aggressively the harder the drop, but the timing of this buy-in is worth pondering—she's not betting on the broker itself, but on retail trading volume bottoming out and rebounding.
What does this mean for the crypto market? If institutions judge that retail trading enthusiasm is returning, the first beneficiaries will be the most liquid assets. $BTC is the unavoidable first stop, with ETH and SOL usually following, having greater elasticity but also lagging behind.
Of course, ARK can also be wrong; she has a history of unrealized losses. This news should not be taken as a buy signal but rather as an observation window: in the coming weeks, if exchange trading volume and on-chain active addresses rise in sync, her judgment will be validated; if they continue to shrink, this bottom-fishing will just be another case of catching a falling knife.The market keeps testing patience! Tonight's PCE is the decisive factor ⚠️
The surge and fall was unexpected, now stuck in consolidation
$BTC currently at 80300
Liquidation pain points:
Short pain point 80759 (40.239 million U)
Long pain point 79017 (42.469 million U)
Above 80500-81000 is a dense short liquidation zone
Very close, beware of sudden upward spikes
Below 79400-78800 is a dense long zone
Temporarily safe, if the 80k level breaks, it’s dangerous
$ETH
Short pain point 2331 (25.96 million U)
Long pain point 2284 (28.695 million U)
Above 2330-2360 is a liquidation cluster
Below 2300-2270 is the long lifeline
ETH follows BTC
Focus on BTC direction tonight!
Do you think when PCE lands, it will spike up first or break below 80k directly?
Personal trading record only, not investment advice
#Strategy财报前瞻：BTC账面收益大幅反弹
#BTC财库优先股融资升温
#谷歌Q3营收增长，净利润下滑、每股收益不及预期 $HYPE
Some say this wave of HYPE is about to take off, rising 8 points in an hour. I'll pour cold water first.
The rise is real, reaching a high of 86.2. But at the same time, in the past 5 days, a huge whale sold 694,300 HYPE, cashing out $53.27 million, at an average price of over 76. Short-term it rose 8%, but someone is offloading over 50 million worth of tokens mid-term.
Putting these two facts together, I personally see this wave as a rebound, not a new round of launch. Last time I chased the high during someone else's sell-off rally, with my stop loss set below the starting point of the rise, a memory still fresh. Now I’m just watching, not taking action.
#美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 $BTC
BTC is now at 80250, with a 24-hour low touching 79709, another day defending the 80,000 mark.
Looking at the numbers: Strategy holds 848,000 BTC, with an average cost around 75440, currently showing just over 6% unrealized profit. The 334 BTC added in early October, at an average price of 85838, are still underwater.
So the talk about returning above some cost line sounds impressive, but it's actually just a 6% buffer that can disappear in a day of decline. My own position is light; I neither added nor reduced at 80,000. What really shows me the direction is whether the 79,000 support leg holds, not the small unrealized gains above.
#美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 Don't rush to define this sharp rise as a reversal; it looks more like an emotional pulse. Twenty minutes before the FOMC results were announced, market sentiment suddenly heated up, social platforms were flooded with "bullish rebounds," BTC climbed back above 80,000, and ETH was pushed from 2330 to 2336. On the surface, it looks like a bottom confirmation, but this time window itself is worth caution: if this were truly the start of a trend-level rally, why would controlling funds choose to make a big push at a moment when the entire market is holding its breath? Are they afraid latecomers won't catch the train?
Looking at the resistance above: ETH faces tens of millions in short positions around 2377 and 2400, and BTC encounters dense resistance near 81,800 and 84,000. A surge now would hit almost entirely decompression zones of trapped chips. If big money were genuinely bullish, they wouldn't choose to be "active saints" here. A more reasonable path is: a sharp rise on low volume to heat up sentiment first. Once the meeting statement lands, as long as the wording leans hawkish or hints at a slightly tighter path for December, the chasing buyers will immediately feel the pressure. Everyone can see the bullish candle, but few think carefully about who is distributing behind it.
Therefore, there is no need for shorts to rush out. The real direction will only be clear after the FOMC shoe drops.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 $ETH Just now, these few candlesticks were moving along the upper band of the 15-minute Bollinger Bands. Although the price is creeping up, the Bollinger Bands' upper and lower bands have not expanded. The 15-minute bandwidth is at a low percentile around 20%. The latest few candlesticks show reduced volume; the buying pressure hasn't pushed the upper band away.
Taking a glance at the 4-hour chart startled me. The 4-hour Bollinger Bands have contracted to the 14% percentile, and the price has been consolidating here for a long time. This pattern indicates the trend is choosing a direction. Currently, the price is still running below the 4-hour middle band; the bulls have not yet reclaimed the middle band.
Zooming out, the current price has already touched around 2328. This is a previous swing low on the daily chart, now converted into resistance. On the 4-hour chart, EMA20 and EMA50 are diverging along the downtrend. The price rebound has hit a major resistance level.
Next, I lean bearish. The daily resistance is just above, and the 4-hour EMA is pressing down. If it cannot hold above with volume, the expected trend is a pullback first, then testing support near 2290.
$BTC $SOL #美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 🔥The crucial battle for BTC tonight is here! Whether 82500 can be taken will decide if the short-term bulls can further prove themselves.📊 But remember, piercing the resistance level does not equal a valid breakout.
📈 Bullish signals: a volume breakout above 82500, a pullback that doesn't break below, and short-term periods consistently closing above.
⚠️ Risk signals: after the breakout, volume doesn't keep up, and the price quickly falls back below 82500, chasing highs easily leads to getting trapped.
🧭 My approach is to wait for confirmation, not to rush the first surge. If conditions are met, then test with a small position; if it can't hold steady for a long time, it's fine to stay out and watch.
💬 Brothers, tonight are you ready to wait for confirmation to get in, or continue patiently waiting for an opportunity? #美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 Google crashed badly. Before yesterday's earnings report was released, the whales who kept adding positions were subsequently liquidated twice, with a total liquidation scale of nearly 10 million USD and a total loss of over 500,000 USD. Continuously adding positions on floating profits made the guy's motorcycle turn back into a bicycle.
At first, I thought this guy had some insider information, but it turns out he was just a gambler betting on the direction.Before looking at Coinbase's financial report, I first verified the Deribit migration date: the perpetual contract trading previously supported by Coinbase International Exchange was migrated to Deribit starting October 1.
This date is important because Q3 ended on September 30.
Therefore, Deribit already had business that could contribute to Q3, but operational effects generated only after the migration completed in October cannot be counted in the previous quarter. Acquisition, business consolidation, and platform migration also need to be understood separately.
I have expectations for this integration. With trading platforms and liquidity more concentrated, if the experience can be improved and customers use more products, there is a long-term opportunity to enhance competitiveness.
But these effects need to be reflected through actual trading and operational data. Completing the technical migration only means a step forward; it does not automatically prove simultaneous improvement in revenue and profit.
For this financial report, I will separate Q3 actual revenue from the company's disclosed October business progress. If management talks about customer activity and product usage after the migration, that will be more helpful in judging Q4.
The market likes to combine a string of good news into one positive, and I understand this excitement. But financial reports have clear cut-off dates. Putting future possible improvements prematurely into a quarter that has already ended can easily lead to overestimation and then disappointment.
#Coinbase整合Deribit，Q3收入能否改善？ Samsung's Q3 earnings report is out, with 3 hardcore signals at the trading level👇
1️⃣ Quarterly performance structure is singular
Out of 107 trillion KRW net profit, the semiconductor division contributed 99% of pure profit
The mobile division suffered a loss of 0.8 trillion KRW. The core business of AI storage and HBM is fully tied to the future revenue and profit development of AI storage and HBM, making sensitivity extremely high.
2️⃣ Positive factors realized
Both revenue and operating Eli Lilly LLY Q3 Earnings Preview: The Game and Concerns Under High GLP-1 Growth
$LLY will release its Q3 earnings report and hold a conference call at 22:00 Beijing time on October 29.
Market consensus expectations: revenue of $22.61 billion, adjusted EPS of $6.26. The core anchor of this earnings report remains the GLP-1 pipeline, which is also the market's pricing focus.
Mounjaro and Zepbound prescription volumes are expected to continue rising, with capacity release driving strong overall revenue growth; however, ongoing US healthcare cost controls continue to suppress individual product prices, combined with increased expenses from capacity expansion, R&D investment, and external acquisitions, profit growth is very likely to lag behind revenue growth, limiting earnings leverage.
Subsequent market scenarios are divided into three:
1. Revenue and dual-drug sales exceed expectations, with an upward revision of full-year guidance → stock price strengthens;
2. Data just meets expectations, likely leading to a positive realization followed by a pullback;
3. Weight loss drug prescription growth falls short of expectations, or guidance is lowered → valuation pressure causes a decline.
Long-term risks come from new competing products from Novo Nordisk and others, and continued price reductions on the payer side. Unlike AI giants with high capital expenditures and cash burn, Eli Lilly is a pharmaceutical growth stock with solid cash flow, better suited for waiting for a pullback before investing.
Key tracking points: sales of the two core drugs, clinical progress of retatrutide, and full-year revenue guidance.
#ModernaQ3财报将揭示疫苗销售趋势 #医药#美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 I am the Mid-term Intelligence Brother.
The Federal Reserve maintains the interest rate at 3.75%-4.00%, as expected but not truly positive news. The vote was 10 to 2, with two members supporting a rate hike, indicating increased hawkish divergence. The economic assessment was upgraded to "strong expansion" but inflation concerns remain.
Market reactions are mixed. U.S. stocks rose slightly, the dollar retreated, but the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 5.02%. High oil prices increase inflation risks, the Bank of Canada raised rates, and global currencies have not shifted toward easing.
Tonight at 20:30, focus on the U.S. Q3 GDP and September PCE, which is the second round of tests and will trigger the next wave of volatility.
For $BTC and $ETH, the pause in rate hikes has been priced in. If data is hotter, BTC may test 80,000, and ETH could see a larger decline; only if PCE cools down and U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar retreat will the rebound be sustainable.
$ZEC
#美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 It's almost 7 PM, brothers, have you eaten and drunk enough? The market is dragging without direction, but I just glanced at the data of several popular altcoins. This is not a lack of market activity; it's clearly a massacre orchestrated by the main players. Let me quickly review it for you all.
First, look at $HYPE, current price 85.6, it directly pulled up a big bullish candle. The 4-hour long-short ratio shot up to 2.19, and open interest surged sharply. This shows the main players are aggressively buying with real money, and retail investors are frantically following. Although the position is heavy, the momentum is very strong. Don't lightly try to top pick in this kind of short squeeze market.
Next, look at $NEAR, current price 4.41, it plunged nearly 6%. The most ridiculous thing is the long-short ratio, which was forcibly raised from a bottom of 1.59 to 2.25. This means the more it falls, the more retail investors buy, all crazily bottom fishing! With so many long leverages, the main players won't pump unless they wash out the bottom fish.
Finally, look at $ZEC, current price 1270, it is drifting down 3.3%. The long-short ratio is stuck at an extremely low 0.79, and open interest is still decreasing. Retail investors are crazily shorting at the top; the shorts are extremely crowded. This kind of extreme inverse data means that once the market gains some strength, it will most likely trigger a short squeeze.
Summary: The main players are causing localized moves now. HYPE is violently pumping, NEAR is baiting longs to kill them, and ZEC is brewing a short squeeze. Don't chase the highs or sell the lows now; if you don't understand, just hold your hands.
What are you holding tonight? What do you think about these popular altcoins? Are you bullish or bearish?
#美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 The evening market feels chilling. After the FOMC announcement, the market didn't celebrate; instead, it just laid flat ahead of the GDP and PCE data releases. BTC barely held around 80,200, ETH directly dropped to 2,310, and SOL was the worst at 100.19, on the verge of breaking below 100. In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $259 million, with shorts liquidated at $156 million and longs only $103 million. Those who chased shorts a few days ago have now become fuel, but that doesn't mean the bulls have won; the price hasn't rallied at all.
The ETF side is even stranger. BTC spot ETFs have had net inflows for three consecutive days, with BlackRock's IBIT buying $136 million in one day; institutions are quietly accumulating, but ETH saw net outflows, showing a bias in funds. BTC dominance surged to 60.1%, and altcoin liquidity is being drained.
Data will be released tonight at 20:30. If the data is strong, rate hike expectations will heat up, and BTC may dip to 79,500; if the data is moderate, there might be a chance to test 81,500.
Based on my current positions, the strategy is clear: longs on ETH at 2308 and SOL at 104.31 are holding firm. ETH's bottom line is 2280; if it breaks, cut losses. SOL's critical point is 100; if it closes below 100, reduce positions. BTC is watching the 79,500 support; don't move before the data release. Keep leverage within 5x; tonight, don't bet on direction but on who gives up first after the data is out. Preserving capital is more important than anything. #美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 🔥No rate hike does not equal a full bull market! Today's performance of the three major coins already shows that capital attitudes toward different assets are diverging.
📊 BTC bounced above 81,000 but then fell below 80,000; short-term support still needs confirmation. ETF inflows are a positive signal, but continuity is more important than single-day data.
⚠️ ETH is currently one to watch patiently; before reclaiming 2400, rashly treating the rebound as a reversal carries significant risk. Institutional capital outflows are worth noting, but price and subsequent flow must also be considered.
🌱 SOL is relatively strong; the Alpenglow upgrade provides an independent catalyst for the market, but "strong narrative" does not mean "price only rises without falling."
🛡️ Don’t chase highs or blindly bottom-fish; wait for signals to appear first. Brothers, if you could only pick one key focus, would you watch BTC’s critical levels, ETH’s 2400, or SOL’s sustained strength? #美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 #GoogleQ3MixedResults Perpetual contracts are coming to the US. Intercontinental Exchange, the parent company of the NYSE, is partnering with Trade.xyz to bring perpetual contracts into the regulated US market.
This news hasn't caused much of a stir, but it could be the most important change in the derivatives space in the past two years. Perpetuals are the flagship product of offshore exchanges, with no expiration date, allowing indefinite leveraged positions, supporting the entire contract market's trading volume. They've always operated in a gray area: US retail investors wanting to trade have to go through offshore platforms, keeping funds in unregulated places, and if something goes wrong, they have no recourse. Now, a domestic exchange group is proactively incorporating this product category, effectively giving it a legal status.
The price is that leverage is being put under control. Low leverage, mandatory margin, and clearinghouse endorsement mean that 100x contracts won't appear in this product. In the short term, this will blunt $BTC's intraday spikes. Offshore platforms rely on high leverage to create chain liquidations, but this won't work in a compliant market, so the market-moving spikes wiping out tens of millions will become less frequent.
However, reduced volatility does not mean reduced risk; the risk is shifting from the order book to the system. Clearing is backed by centralized institutions, and under extreme market conditions, issues like shutdowns, margin call failures, and forced liquidation queues—old problems in traditional futures markets—may arise, which the crypto space hasn't encountered before.
$ETH and SOL will be affected later, as their contract liquidity originally depended more on offshore platforms.
When reading this news, don't just focus on the partnership itself; pay attention to who is setting the rules for perpetual contracts.$XAU gold current price is $4023, the whole network is cutting losses, but the whales' trump cards have already been revealed.
Brothers, gold prices fell again today, spot gold intraday decline expanded to 1%, quoted at $4023.82
The screen is full of "gold has peaked" and "bull market is over," the panic can be felt through the screen.
But if you zoom out a bit and see what has happened in the past few months.
Since September, COMEX gold has fallen more than 9%, once breaking below the $4000 integer mark, domestic gold ETFs have shrunk by more than 18 billion yuan in total scale, and gold stock ETFs have fallen more than 24%.
The whole network is shouting "the safe-haven logic has failed," but no one tells you that this round of gold decline is not about "credit," but about "liquidity."
Guotai Fund's analysis puts it bluntly: the transmission chain of this round of gold decline is not the traditional safe-haven logic at all
But rather "oil price surge → inflation rekindling → interest rate hike expectations heating up → real interest rates rising → suppressing non-yielding assets," gold has instead become the "loser" in the energy inflation trade.
Even worse, the AI sector correction triggered localized deleveraging, forcing investors to sell the most liquid gold to replenish margin.
In plain language: it's not that gold is failing, it's that the market is short on cash, so gold is the first to be cut. This is a liquidity shock, not a credit crisis. $ZEC The feeling of this wave of shakeout forcing shorts to cover is very strong.
A huge whale opened a 10x short position at 786, and has been holding a floating loss of $1.49 million so far, stubbornly pushing the liquidation price to 2432. On the other side, retail traders are still desperately shorting on rallies, with the long-short ratio dropping to 0.846, and all retail traders across the network think this level is too high and should be smashed.
But the big players are not giving any chance for a pullback, secretly buying up all the chips that retail traders are handing over by dumping the price. The shorts are paying interest daily and holding on hard; this trend clearly aims to needle and explode this group of shorts all the way up.
#ZEC
$ZEC
👇In the evening, the three major mainstream cryptocurrencies all slipped down together, with declines around 2%. The Federal Reserve did not move, and the market is calculating a rate hike in December. Under this market condition, whether BTC, ETH, and SOL can hold depends on whether there is real money behind them.
$BTC near 80115, money is coming in but the price doesn't rise 💰
Down 1.62% in 24 hours. Spot ETFs have had net inflows for three consecutive days, totaling $424 million, turning October into a net inflow of $111 million. But the 50-day moving average at 81831 is pressing down, and Glassnode says buy orders around 80,000 only have $3.4 million left, with large orders moved to 78000-79000.
$ETH near 2318, ETFs bleeding every day 🩸
Down 2.16% in 24 hours. Ethereum ETFs saw another $21 million outflow on Wednesday, totaling $1.35 billion outflow in October. Glamsterdam says the mainnet launch is in Q4, but the date is not set.
$SOL near 100, tug-of-war at the round number 🪚
Down 2.51% in 24 hours, at 100.1, just 0.1 away from breaking 100. The future asset securities Hong Kong subsidiary just issued tokenized notes on Solana, but institutional note issuance is a different matter from coin price.
BTC is supported by ETF money. Ethereum looks the worst among the three, with $1.35 billion running out in a month, and without a fixed upgrade date, it's hard for anyone to come back. SOL has news but no buying pressure; if 100 cannot be reclaimed, it is the most vulnerable to a spike down. In a volatile downtrend, control your hands and don't chase highly volatile coins. #美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 #Samsung's Q3 profit increased nearly 8 times, full financial report to be released soon 🔥 🔥 7:30 PM TONIGHT 10/29 – US ANNOUNCES GDP AND CORE PCE 🇺🇸$BTC $XAU
📊 Quarterly GDP – initial estimate
• Forecast: 3.2%
• Previous: 2.2%
📊 Monthly core PCE
• Forecast: 0.3%
• Previous: 0.2%
🔎 IMPACT ON CRYPTO
🔴 Core PCE higher than forecast: May reduce expectations for Fed rate cuts, putting pressure on BTC and altcoins.
🟢 Core PCE lower than forecast: May support expectations for policy easing, creating positive sentiment 🔥BTC current price is 80200, bulls and bears are both struggling! 💣 Smart money statistics show 868 bulls and 1278 bears, with a nominal long-short ratio of 28.99%. However, the number of participants and position structure do not directly determine the next price movement.
📉 The average cost for bulls is 85567, with an unrealized loss of about 60.56 million USDT, and a profit ratio of only 13.01%. Bulls who entered at high levels are clearly under pressure.
📊 The average cost for bears is 76927, with a profit ratio of 70.42%, but an unrealized loss of about 104 million USDT. Bears overall still hold a profit advantage but may face profit-taking during a rebound.
🛡️ My strategy is to observe first, not impulsively open positions just because data favors one side. If BTC cannot choose a direction for a long time, frequent trading may lead to repeated stop losses. Remember, cash is also a position. Do you currently favor a rebound, or do you think the downtrend is not over yet? #美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 The focus is on growth rate, not revenue. Pushing cloud business growth to 48%, even exceeding market expectations, indicates that enterprise orders for computing power have not been retracted; this account is not settled yet. First, let's calculate where the money comes from: computing power is a front-loaded expense, depreciation is spread over several years, but cash flow decreases in the current period. The long-term US Treasury yield remains above 4.9%, with such a high risk-free rate, the discount denominator for risk assets is capped—this explains why the basket has fallen recently while momentum has turned positive; prices are waiting for interest rates to provide answers. Politically, no detours: the rhetoric is to restrict competitors and keep computing power domestic; some money is squeezed from export controls, some from subsidies, but the result is the same—funds are being absorbed into data centers. Not neutral here, this is a short-term drain on crypto. Historically, someone has paid this bill before. The British railway mania of the 1840s saw tracks laid faster than passenger traffic, shareholders lost everything, but the railway network remained. Computing power is on the same path: infrastructure succeeds, speculators fail. My stance this round remains unchanged: BTC at 80,202, stop loss at 79,648, take profit at 81,126, risk-reward ratio 1.67 to 1. The ones truly killed are those who take the computing power story as the coin price story directly. Many may disagree with me, but I definitely have more organized and analyzed data than you, and I have my own strategy.🔥BTC current price 80200, check how the smart money is positioned before placing orders! 📊 2358 traders participated in the statistics, nominal long-short ratio 28.99%, the position battle between longs and shorts is more worth attention than the surface rise and fall.
🐂 868 bulls, holding about 838 million USDT, average cost 85567, floating loss about 60.56 million, profit ratio only 13.01%. High-level long positions face considerable pressure, whether the rebound can continue remains questionable.
🐻 1278 bears, holding about 2.89 billion USDT, average cost 76927, floating loss about 104 million, profit ratio 70.42%. Bears overall are still profitable, but not without pressure.
⚠️ Don’t rush to bet on direction today! Bull costs are above, bear costs are below, BTC is between both costs, short-term is prone to repeated tug-of-war. Do you think it will sweep the bulls first or squeeze the bears first? #美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 #三星Q3营业利润创新高，净利润不及预期
Samsung Q3 Earnings Report: The Most Profitable Ever, Yet Still Disappointing the Market
On October 29, Samsung Electronics delivered a "split" Q3 report: operating profit set the highest single-quarter record ever for a tech company, but net profit dragged the stock price down.
Key data at a glance:
📊 Revenue 195.25 trillion KRW, +127% YoY, record-breaking for the fourth consecutive quarter
💰 Operating profit 107.44 trillion KRW, +783% YoY, +20% QoQ, first global tech company to surpass 100 trillion KRW in a single quarter
📉 Net profit 75.21 trillion KRW, market expectation 89.06 trillion, nearly 14 trillion short
📈 Operating margin 55%, but net margin fell from 41.8% in Q2 to 38.5%
Semiconductors are the sole engine and the only "problem." The DS division posted 106.5 trillion KRW in operating profit for the quarter, contributing over 99% of the group's profit, with a margin as high as 72%. HBM4 ramp-up, server SSDs in short supply, and price hikes across all storage categories drove storage revenue to 140.7 trillion KRW, a staggering 427% YoY increase. Yet even this "money printer" fell short of analysts' optimistic forecast of 108.5 trillion KRW by about 2 trillion. The market isn't upset that it earned less, but that it didn't squeeze even higher margins amid the peak AI storage demand and tight supply.
On the other hand, smartphones are "repaying debt" to semiconductors. The MX division's revenue grew to 37.7 trillion KRW YoY, but operating profit was -600 billion KRW, compared to +3.6 trillion KRW last year. The irony: smartphones need memory, and memory price hikes are the source of Samsung Semiconductor's profit surge. Within the same group, the more upstream earns, the tougher it is for downstream terminals.
The net profit gap lies outside operations. Financial expenses of 9.5 trillion KRW reduced pre-tax profit from operating profit of 107.4 trillion to 98.5 trillion KRW, and after deducting 23.4 trillion KRW in income tax, net profit fell to 75.21 trillion KRW. This is a non-operating impact, not a slowdown in the core business, but the market showed no patience for explanations amid record profits.
After the earnings release, Samsung's stock price dropped over 6% intraday. Capital expenditure was simultaneously raised to 84.4 trillion KRW (52.7 trillion in 2025), with 76.8 trillion related to chips. This was interpreted short-term as cash flow consumption and mid-to-long term as raising concerns about whether expansion might prematurely end the storage boom.
However, industry signals have not weakened. Samsung itself warned that chip supply shortages will be more severe next year than in 2026, and plans to mass-produce HBM4E in the first half of 2027 are progressing. The drop reflects the gap of over ten trillion between single-quarter net profit and optimistic expectations, not the underlying AI storage narrative.
In summary: Semiconductors have pushed Samsung to unprecedented profit heights, while smartphones and non-operating items have brought it back under market scrutiny. Record-breaking is true, and falling short of expectations is also true. "A 1.99% buffer against the volatility of $DOGE with 50x leverage—this is the most dangerous aspect of this position."
$DOGE 50x long, 0.07659→0.07812, +99.88%. Conversely: if it falls about 2.00%, that 99% gain disappears entirely.
What does 2.00% mean for $DOGE? A normal downward spike, or even a large sell order hitting the order book. In other words, this position doesn't require any fading of bullish momentum, no trend reversal, nor anyone deliberately shorting—it only takes a technical pullback to wipe it out.
50x leverage magnifies 1.99% into 99%, and likewise magnifies 2.00% into zero. It offers huge profits but is always ready to take them back.
The market itself is holding up: price is running high. But key support below is not far away.
So I never decide to close based on "how much profit" I have, only on how far it is from the cost line. 1.99% looks like a buffer, but market volatility never makes sense.
The only move: push to break even, at worst lock in zero, and avoid expanding exposure. $BTC $ETH #美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 My judgment on what will happen: 1. The probability of exceeding expectations is high, but it's not the main focus. Understanding EPS adjusted from $46.11 one month ago to $46.67, and $43.94 three months ago — the expectation is a monthly upward revision, indicating the industry chain's prosperity is being realized (SK Hynix, Micron, Seagate, Western Digital all reported strong results). Along with a history of four consecutive beats, an EPS of $48-52 is the baseline argument. But the stock price reaction depends not on what has already happened, but on the Q2 guidance. 2. The three numbers that truly determine the stock price: What to watch and why the passing line matters. Q2 revenue > $12.87 billion (consensus). If below this figure, the market will start to believe the "cycle has peaked." Whether gross margin can rise again quarter-over-quarter is the top signal of the storage cycle's peak; gross margin always levels off first, not revenue. Whether NAND contract prices have another round of increases is the only evidence of pricing power. 3. A fact you must know: the market is already betting on your "peak." Stock price $1,404.77, TTM EPS $46.07 → static PE 30.5x. But based on FY2027 EPS $208.94 → forward PE only 6.7x. A company that has risen 641% in 52 weeks, with a forward PE of only 6.7x — this shows the market fundamentally does not believe the $208 figure can be sustained. The rule for storage stocks is: the lowest PE is the most dangerous because that is when profits are hottest. 4. Results and corresponding price levels: Exceeding expectations + strong guidance (Q2 > $14 billion) probability 35% +12% ~ +2 Who exactly is making money from crypto trading? The people who profit and the people who "trade crypto" are often not the same group.
On the retail side, about 70% of trading addresses incur losses, while the top 0.0385% of addresses take more than 70% of the profits; over 60% of frequent traders lose money, and among a sample of 450,000, only 254 made over $10,000.
So who is taking the money? Exchanges and market makers first take fees, profiting regardless of market conditions; insiders and manipulators exploit information asymmetry and structural advantages to harvest profits, coordinated wallets simultaneously dump assets; KOLs show public wallet losses while their related wallets profit.
The so-called "nearly 60% profitability" mostly comes from veteran players who have survived three years, while those who lost money and exited are not counted. Survivor bias is the biggest filter in the crypto world.
In short: the money made from crypto trading is not from "trading" itself, but from fees, information asymmetry, structural advantages, and harvesting rights. Retail investors are not investors—they are liquidity itself.
Therefore, both those who have lost and those temporarily profiting are just liquidity. People are inherently self-righteous, deceiving themselves and being deceived by others. They believe they are smarter than others, so we all remain in the market to prove our uniqueness, to prove we are the one-in-a-million dragon or phoenix, unaware that such cases are extremely rare.This morning I said the 14.49 million redemption by HyperLabs was nothing, but then at noon another transaction came: a certain whale transferred 387,000 HYPE to Coinbase, which at the current price I pulled is just over 30 million.
Today's HYPE news basically all goes in one direction. But the market here, current price 79.4, 24-hour low 78.14, after the morning dump it pulled back, and the fee rate is still slightly positive.
The volume comparison is even more interesting: OKX's HYPE 24-hour trading volume is 1.81 million, and this one transfer accounts for one-fifth of that, while the open interest remains steady near 100 million USD without moving. Money is moving towards exchanges, and the price still holds above 78.
78 has held twice today. When the third time will come, and whether it will hold again, I won't guess. No position changes, just watching.
#美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 As soon as the no-rate-hike hammer dropped, the sprinting postures of BTC, ETH, and $SOL were completely different:
BTC indeed acted as the leader of the relief rebound, once climbing back above 81,000. After an early morning dip to 79,919, it quickly recovered. The spot ETF's net inflow for three consecutive days confirms institutional pricing of "bad news fully priced in." However, Powell emphasized that inflation remains too high, combined with December rate hike disagreements and high US Treasury yields, making a unilateral surge before the midterm elections on the 3rd unlikely. The 80,000 level remains the core battleground between bulls and bears.
ETH is arguably the weakest among the mainstreams, with a weak rebound of less than 0.5% after the decision, completely missing the dividend. The root cause lies in continued institutional selling: last week, the ETH spot ETF saw a net outflow of $576.9 million over five days, the largest five-day outflow this year, indicating structural liquidation. Without reclaiming 2,400, a reversal is hard to say, and its high Beta characteristic is temporarily abandoned by institutions.
SOL is the L1 standout, with the Alpenglow upgrade providing an independent narrative combined with ecosystem support, rebounding over 1.2% after the decision, showing clear on-chain capital preference. In the short term, SOL's ecosystem resilience is sufficient, but under macro pressure, overall caution against pullbacks is advised, with light positions for defense.
The Federal Reserve maintained rates unchanged, with December rate hike disagreements heating up $BTC $ETH $ZEC 20261029
3. Large holders hold onto BTC without selling, while retail investors frantically move coins into exchanges; it hasn't been this intense in half a year
1. First, look at retail investors
In April, $5.5 billion worth of BTC was transferred to exchanges in one month; now it's $10.75 billion, doubling
Transferring coins doesn't equal selling, but coins entering exchanges means they can be sold anytime. Retail investors are scared; with the price stuck at 80,000, they want to rebound and recover losses quickly by selling
2. Then, look at the whales
Since the end of August, transfers have decreased by 36%. The volume transferred by retail investors is 2.8 times that of whales
They accumulated at low prices; selling at 80,000 isn't profitable. October's inflation data dropped by 3.3%, yet they remain inactive—not fleeing but waiting for better prices
3. Next, see who will sell
If the price rises further, large holders still won't move; all sellers will be retail investors, who will collectively flee halfway through the rise
If large holders move, sellers will double, and the crash will be faster
4. From Wednesday to Friday this week, BTC must pass through three hurdles; the first hurdle has been cleared
1. First hurdle
The Fed meeting on Wednesday has concluded, maintaining interest rates unchanged, but that doesn't mean December rates won't change
Reuters asked 100 economists: all 100 raised their hands for a rate hike in December
Some institutions also said: it's too close to the November 3 midterm elections; even if a hike is due this week, it can't happen
2. Second hurdle
Thursday's inflation data release is expected at 3.7%, while the Fed's target is 2%. The last rate cut fizzled out late, causing Bitcoin to drop from 82,000 to just over 60,000
3. Third hurdle
On Friday, $11 billion worth of Bitcoin bets expire, the largest in history