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Who exactly profits from crypto trading? The people who make money and those who "trade crypto" are often not the same group.
On the retail side, about 70% of trading addresses incur losses, while 0.0385% of top addresses take over 70% of the profits; among frequent traders, over 60% lose money, and out of a sample of 450,000, only 254 made more than $10,000.
So who is taking the money? Exchanges and market makers first take fees, profiting regardless of market conditions; insiders and manipulators exploit information asymmetry and structural advantages to harvest profits, coordinated wallets simultaneously dump assets; KOLs show public wallet losses, while related wallets profit.
The so-called "nearly 60% profitability" mostly comes from veteran players who have survived three years, while those who lost money and exited are not counted. Survivor bias is the biggest filter in the crypto world.
In short: the money made from crypto trading is not from "trading" itself, but from fees, information asymmetry, structural advantages, and harvesting rights. Retail investors are not investors—they are liquidity itself.
So both those who have lost and those temporarily profiting are just liquidity. People are naturally self-righteous, thinking they are smarter than others, so we all remain in the market proving our uniqueness 😄 After watching today's early morning FOMC, my feeling is: the decision itself (10 to 2 to maintain 3.75%—4.00%) is actually the least important part of the whole event. What is truly worth remembering is what Waller publicly announced — that the Fed will no longer provide forward guidance in the future. 1. What exactly is forward guidance? It is a product of the 2008 financial crisis. When interest rates dropped to zero that year and conventional ammunition was exhausted, the central bank only had "talking" as a tool: telling you in advance that "interest rates will remain low for the next two years," so the market would automatically price down forward rates, achieving easing without spending a penny. Over the next decade-plus, the "dot plot, statement wording, press conference hints" system became the global traders' survival manual — you are not trading today, but the tomorrow the central bank previews. 2. Why did Waller tear it up? Today, his exact words were "Do not pre-judge meeting outcomes," adding "unless a crisis occurs, the market should not overly rely on forward guidance." The logic is actually consistent: forward guidance is a tool from the zero interest rate era, using certainty to guide expectations; but now the Fed is in a rate hike cycle, the economy is "strongly expanding," inflation at 3.7% has been above the 2% target for more than five consecutive years, and any promise can be contradicted by the next data point, which damages credibility. He even refused to describe current financial conditions as "tightening," saying "neither willing nor able" — giving you no words to bet on. The history of guidance failures is not far off. The 2021 "inflation is just temporary" episode... [Federal Reserve Early Morning Decision] 10:2 Hold Steady, But Market Interpretation Is Far From "Positive"
At 2 a.m., the FOMC voted 10:2 to keep the interest rate unchanged at 3.75%—4.00%. The dissenting votes came from Governor Cook and Cleveland Fed President Mester, who advocated for a direct 25 basis point hike; this is Cook's first dissenting vote since becoming a governor, indicating rising internal inflation concerns.
The statement upgraded the economy from "solid" to "strong expansion," with inflation at 3.7%, exceeding the 2% target for over five consecutive years—hotter economy + higher inflation reads as "more hikes possible."
Waller explicitly rejected forward guidance, saying, "Don't preset meeting outcomes"—meaning the Fed will no longer give advance hints about its intentions; everything will depend on the data.
Market pricing is straightforward: a 78.4% probability of a 25 basis point hike in December, and over 50% probability of a cumulative 50 basis point hike by January next year.
The crypto market reacted realistically: BTC surged to 81,768 immediately after the decision, then volume sold off breaking below 80,000 in the afternoon before recovering to 80,150, down 1.6% over 24 hours; ETH was weaker, down 2.1%.
Why didn’t "no rate hike" lead to a rally? This time it’s not a dovish turn but a wait-and-see on data. In an environment without guidance, every key data point (Q3 GDP, September PCE) becomes a volatility amplifier. Don’t read "no hike today" as "no hikes in the future." #美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 $BTC $ETH $SOL $NEAR, can the AI theme heat up and convert into on-chain demand? AI capital expenditure is driving up expectations for storage and computing power, but the infrastructure narrative must be validated through paid tasks, call volume, and developer retention. Cross-market tech volatility also reminds us that investment themes are not one-directional. If network usage and revenue rise simultaneously, the AI premium is justified; if there is only conceptual exposure and actual calls stagnate, I will lower valuation expectations.#Hormuz reopening plan emerges, can the oil price decline continue? $GOOGL Google earnings report bombed, I continue to short on the rebound! No matter how hot AI is, it can't stop the market from settling accounts!
The most interesting part of Google's earnings report is: cloud business grew 103%, looking very impressive, but the stock price fell about 10% in after-hours trading.
Why? Because the market not only looks at how much you earn, but also how much you spend and how much profit you finally keep.
Q3 revenue was $127.6 billion, below expectations; adjusted EPS was $2.67, lower than the market expectation of $3.02; free cash flow turned negative to about $9.1 billion. No matter how imaginative the AI business is, with continued expanding investment and advertising revenue missing expectations, the market naturally recalculates the valuation.
My direction is very clear: continue to be bearish on GOOGL in the short term, prioritize shorting opportunities on rebounds! For operations, refer to rebound resistance around $298-302, consider shorting in batches when under pressure, with a target initially at $286.
This time, I'm not focused on how beautifully the AI story is told, but whether the market is willing to keep paying for high investment. No matter how good the news is, if the stock price doesn't agree, you have to respect the market.
#谷歌Q3营收增长，净利润下滑、每股收益不及预期 Tonight at 8:30 PM, the final battle deciding the fate of the Federal Reserve is coming, with the probability of a rate hike reaching 85%!
Q3 GDP preliminary, September PCE, and initial jobless claims will all be released simultaneously: 1. Core PCE is expected to be 0.3% month-over-month (last month 0.2%), 3.1% year-over-year (last month 3.0%)
2. GDP is expected to be 3.2% annualized quarter-over-quarter (Q2 was 2.2%). Additionally, September CPI has already been somewhat hot (0.6% month-over-month, 3.7% year-over-year), so there is mental preparation.
3. Initial jobless claims are expected to be 198,000-199,000, with the previous value at 194,000. If the data comes out below 190,000, pressure increases; above 210,000, pressure eases.
No bad news is good news!$DOOD This dealer is so blatant that they don't even bother to pretend anymore.
Over 10 million dollars net inflow in 30-day contracts, equivalent to forcibly buying 46% of the total market value. On the surface, the market looks calm, but underwater, they're quietly scooping up.
Controlling the market with such density, the resistance above is basically cleared. Anyone still stubbornly shorting at the top is purely leaving fuel for the main force to squeeze the shorts.
It's just a matter of when the dealer feels like it and hits the gas pedal to explode the price.Y Combinator's latest Requests for Startups clearly positions crypto directions: stablecoins, asset tokenization, institutional products, trading, privacy-enabled scalable chains, and AI Agents using crypto networks for financial rails.
The key is that it doesn't treat crypto as a new asset class but places it back into payments, financing, trading, and software infrastructure. YC is not betting on which Token will rise, but on which financial activities will be reorganized.
The driving force has shifted over the past year. Consumer speculation has given way to institutional demand: risk hedging, corporate cross-border fund transfers, and more efficient settlement. If this shift holds, the 2027 RWA competition won't be about who puts assets on-chain first, but who controls issuance standards, who has compliance interfaces, and who has liquidity.
Data also confirms this. The top ten categories of on-chain RWA assets total about $38 billion, with U.S. Treasuries at $14.6 billion accounting for 38.4%, commodities at $5.15 billion, and stocks at $3.61 billion. The most mature demand remains cash management and low-volatility yields, with USDT and USDC having the largest individual scales.
So, "RWA getting busier" does not mean "all RWA will rise." Those with real underlying assets and compliant custody will attract institutional money; those with issuance but no application will gradually lose attention. $ONDO is worth following for issuance standards and channels, not sentiment.比特币今天短线偏震荡，反弹别急着看高，先别把反抽当反转。以太坊更弱，卖盘占上风，反弹后还有回落压力。觉得分析有帮助，记得点个关注、点个赞，你的支持就是我持续更新的最大动力。 比特币近12小时低点在79,709.50，高点在81,434.40。比特币公开表态里看多的人明显更多，可公开成交里卖出金额更重，这就是眼下的矛盾。看多声音能托住情绪，却未必托住价格。近期价格从区间上沿滑到下沿附近，又被买回，说明低位有人接，但买盘没有连续占优。个别大额成交还在加空，同时也有减空买回，方向并不齐。接下来就看下沿附近能不能接住，以及反弹能不能带量站上区间中部。人多未必能托价，成交更诚实。 以太坊近12小时低点在2,293.93，高点在2,368.31。以太坊的卖压更直接。反弹更容易被卖单压回去。公开成交里卖出金额明显压过买入，买盘没有形成连续承接。价格从近期区间上沿回落后，只在下沿上方反抽，力度不算强。那条看多观点只是转述大账户的多单，不能当成现货买盘，也覆盖不了眼前的卖出成交。短线若下沿附近接不住，回落会更顺；反过来，只有买入成交转强并站回区间中部，反弹才像样。现在说它转强，证据不够。 先看下沿能否接#美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温
On October 29 Beijing time, the Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds target rate range at 3.75% to 4.00% with 10 votes in favor and 2 against. This is the first pause since the rate hikes resumed in September, but it does not indicate a policy shift.
The dissenting votes came from Governor Cook and Cleveland Fed President Mester, both advocating an immediate 25 basis point hike. Cook cast his first dissenting vote in office, signaling that internal FOMC disagreements over the pace of tightening have entered the voting record.
Inflation still does not support the Fed stopping. September CPI rose 3.7% year-on-year, core CPI rose 2.6%, both higher than previous values; PPI rose 6.3% year-on-year. Chair Powell reiterated that inflation still faces a "sixth year of overshoot" and clearly stated no forward guidance would be provided, refusing to predict the future path. On the employment side, cooling appeared: September nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, providing the Fed a window to wait and see.
Market consensus still expects a 25 basis point hike in December. FedWatch shows the probability of a December hike after the meeting is 83.1%, only slightly down from before the meeting. Institutions like CICC and Goldman Sachs also expect action in December, then continued observation.
However, "high probability" does not mean "set in stone." Rising US Treasury yields and mortgage rates, refinancing pressure on commercial real estate, and other financial stability constraints may limit further tightening space. The core signal conveyed by the October decision is: the tightening bias has not reversed, but policy certainty has decreased, and data dependence has been pushed to the extreme.BTC's net ETF inflow this year is almost zero, yet the price has only dropped about 7%! Is the selling pressure on Bitcoin really easing?
On October 29, CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju pointed out a noteworthy phenomenon: since the beginning of this year, Bitcoin ETF net inflows have been close to zero, but BTC's cumulative price decline is only about 7%.
What makes this data interesting is that the ETF, an important incremental buyer, has not shown significant activity for now, yet Bitcoin has not experienced the sharp decline some investors expected. In other words, the market has lost an important buyer, but the price remains relatively resilient.
Ki Young Ju believes this may indicate limited large-scale selling pressure from early holders and miners, or it could mean some investors who originally intended to sell have already reduced their holdings. If this assessment is correct, the market might be going through a phase where new buying is weak, but the active selling force is not as large as imagined.
However, caution is necessary here. **Price resistance to decline does not equal confirmation that no one is selling coins.** Net ETF inflow close to zero only indicates limited net fund changes through this channel; it does not mean there are no other buyers in the entire market, nor can the true scale of selling by early holders or miners be inferred solely from the price drop.
Next, there is a key variable: the policy and market uncertainty brought by the U.S. midterm elections.The PCE data will be released at 8:30 PM. From an intuitive perspective, this data doesn't look optimistic. For specifics, you can refer to the CPI and PPI data from two weeks ago, both leaning hawkish and hot narratives. After all, high oil prices have persisted for so long, especially diesel prices which affect the US logistics industry and eventually pass through to consumer goods, making it really hard to suppress.
However, thanks to the previous high CPI and PPI data that have already caused two waves of market shocks, as long as today's third wave isn't too extreme, the market can actually withstand it. It might even turn a disaster into a blessing if it's not ridiculously bad.
Currently, the market expects September core PCE to be 0.3% month-over-month and 3.1% year-over-year; overall PCE to be 0.5% month-over-month and 3.6% year-over-year. Against the backdrop of high oil prices, as long as the final published value is less than or equal to expectations, it's a victory (provided they aren't playing decimal rounding games).
If the PCE data is unexpectedly mild and dovish, the possible breakthrough point might occur in the handling of the airline ticket weighting coefficient conversion. In any case, when the data is released, you can quickly check whether the core monthly rate is 0.2% or 0.3% to judge the heat level. #美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 📉 After Google's (GOOGL) earnings report was released, it faced a significant sell-off, with the stock price dropping from $328.04 to $288.22. Market sentiment quickly weakened, and retail investors' panic intensified. But what truly deserves attention is the different choices made by capital during the decline. 🐋 According to raw data, there are 19 accounts on Hyperliquid increasing their long positions in GOOGL, with a total scale of about $20.56 million. While the market is still digesting the impact of the earnings report, some large funds seem to have already started looking for potential rebound opportunities. Does this mean a bottom is forming? It's too early to conclude. 🔎 Next, focus on three signals: - Earnings impact: Is the market digesting short-term performance pressure, or reassessing Google's future growth expectations? - Capital movement: The increase in long positions is noteworthy, but it must be judged in conjunction with position changes, liquidation risks, and subsequent price trends. - BTC correlation: If the overall risk appetite in the crypto market declines, BTC's trend may also affect capital sentiment; if BTC remains strong, observe whether this divergence can continue. ⚠️ Remember: Large funds opening longs does not mean the price will immediately reverse, and an increase in positions does not mean these accounts are already profitable. Real opportunities require price confirmation, not just betting based on whale movements. Do not blindly bottom-fish, nor be driven by panic. Pay attention to capital flows and wait for the market to provide answers. #GOOGL #BTC #HyperliSisters!
The most dangerous thing about this $ETH drama is not that it has fallen, but that after it falls, it tries to lure the bulls back with a few rebound candlesticks!
It surged to 2391 earlier, then dropped back to 2292. In such a short market move, whether chasing the rise or bottom fishing, anyone can get confused and lose direction!
Now ETH is back around 2319, the 15-minute MACD histogram has turned positive again, indicating short-term repair, but the price has not yet reclaimed the previous high near 2390.
Regarding the October Federal Reserve meeting, the result is out: interest rates remain at 3.75%–4%, but two voting members advocated for a rate hike, and the statement emphasized that inflation remains high.
A pause in rate hikes does not mean a shift to easing; future policy still carries uncertainty. Whether December will see further tightening depends on inflation and economic data.
This is what I am cautious about now: the market may treat "no rate hike for now" as good news but overlook that the hawkish signals have not disappeared.
If optimistic expectations are prematurely priced in, once subsequent data disappoints, risk assets may come under pressure again.
Next, focus on the rebound resistance between 2330–2340 and whether the previous low at 2292 will be tested again.
If the rebound is blocked, watch for shorting opportunities.
Sisters, don’t treat the pause in rate hikes as risk being cleared!
I maintain a bearish bias but do not blindly short.
$BTC
$ZEC
#美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 $AXIS
AXIS dropped from 0.2235 to a low of 0.1312 within 24 hours, now at 0.1366, down nearly 39%. Okx perpetual contracts traded over 36 million USD in one day.
The numbers are even more interesting: total supply is 1 billion tokens, but only 165 million are circulating, with a market cap under 30 million USD, yet the fully diluted valuation is listed at 180 million. The trading volume is more than three times the market cap; this isn’t just turnover, it’s a queue to exit. The funding rate has turned negative, open interest is only 2 million USD, the liquidity is pitifully thin, and a few sell orders can push the price down by ten percent.
The peak of 0.37 was just a short while ago, with many profit-taking positions on board. 84% of the tokens are still locked up in warehouses, and every rebound is a selling window for them. I don’t touch this kind of token; I’ll consider it again when the circulating supply doubles after a crash.
#美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 #Google Q3 revenue growth, net profit decline, and earnings per share below expectations
My view is: the core contradiction in Google's earnings report is not insufficient revenue growth, but whether profits can keep pace after continuous AI investment.
Revenue growth shows that Google's core business remains resilient, but the decline in net profit and earnings per share below expectations also reflect the market's increasing demands for profit quality and cost control.
Especially in the context of intensifying AI competition, Google needs to find a balance between search advertising, cloud business, and AI infrastructure. AI may indeed open new growth opportunities, but computing power, data centers, and R&D investments will also bring huge cost pressures.
Going forward, I am more focused on three aspects:
1. Advertising business: Whether search ads can maintain growth determines the stability of Google's foundation.
2. Cloud business and AI commercialization: Whether AI investments can be converted into actual revenue, not just increased capital expenditure.
3. Profit margin and cash flow: Whether revenue growth can ultimately translate into profit is the key to judging long-term value.
My conclusion is: we cannot be bullish just because of revenue growth, nor bearish simply because earnings per share fall short of expectations.
In the short term, disappointing earnings may pressure the stock price; in the long term, what truly determines Google's valuation is whether AI can continuously generate revenue and whether profitability can keep up with investment.
In the AI era, the market is not short of growth stories, but lacks profits that can be realized. $BTC Ethereum ETFs are approaching an unpleasant historical record: a net outflow of about $1.32 billion since October, just about $100 million short of the $1.42 billion record set in November 2025, with only a few trading days left. Meanwhile, Bitcoin ETFs have quietly been attracting funds, with a net inflow of $137.3 million just yesterday, of which IBIT contributed $136 million.
1. What has changed?
Funds are choosing BTC over ETH. ETH ETFs have seen net outflows for three consecutive days, with ETHA alone seeing a single-day outflow of $44.8 million; Bitcoin ETFs have accumulated about $424 million in inflows over the past three trading days.
2. Why is this noteworthy?
BlackRock is simultaneously using IBIT to capture BTC buying demand while transferring nearly $200 million in ETH to Coinbase within two days. The same issuer is making distinctly different moves on these two major assets. This is not retail sentiment; it is institutional money making a choice.
3. Which market observation is currently more supported?
The data supports the view that ETH is temporarily weaker than BTC at the institutional allocation level, rather than a full bearish outlook. Whether the tokens transferred on-chain to exchanges are actually being sold as real selling pressure, and whether the October outflow record will ultimately be broken, are the key confirmation signals to watch in the next two days.
If the record is indeed broken in the last three days, the story will become hard to ignore. Feel free to discuss in the comments whether you think ETH is being unfairly punished or if this is justified. $ETH $UNI The current ledger of UNI simply can't withstand detailed scrutiny.
The official issuance budget is 20 million tokens, and even if all the burned tokens are included, there is still a net inflation of 8 million tokens for the whole year.
Additionally, the recent protocol fee output is also declining.
The buying pressure was weak to begin with, and now it can't absorb the daily new tokens being released.
Buyback and burn is just for show, the issuance budget is the real deal. Without new external money coming in, the excess tokens can only be forcibly dumped onto the market, and the continuous downward drift is not without reason.
#UNI
$UNI
👇#Google Q3 revenue growth, net profit decline, earnings per share below expectations Data as of 17:40 on the 29th: Bitcoin 80,094, down 1.7% in 24 hours, intraday low 79,883; Ethereum 2,318 down 2.3%; among the top ten by market cap, only TRX remains unchanged. In the past 24 hours, about $356 million worth of long positions in crypto contracts were liquidated—not retail small orders, but those leveraged positions hanging in the air waiting for a rebound. First, why I consider this earnings report relevant to crypto. Q3 revenue grew, but profit dropped and earnings per share missed expectations; these two facts together have only one explanation: computing power procurement and depreciation are eating into the profit statement. This is the common ledger for the entire AI trading sector. Another large-scale company pushed cloud business growth to 48% in the same period, which also means capital expenditures will continue to increase. The market used to buy into revenue growth, but now it’s starting to ask who is paying this money and when it will return. In the same week, tech stocks led by Samsung plunged, triggering this round of risk aversion; silver fell about 56% from its January high, hitting the lowest point of the year. Even safe-haven assets are being sold, indicating that what is lacking now is not a story, but liquidity. The question of where the money comes from has played out historically. Before the Nasdaq peaked in March 2000, telecom operators borrowed to lay fiber optics, equipment vendors had orders booked two years ahead, Cisco’s market value peaked that month, then dropped 80% over the next year. Orders followed capital expenditures, and capital expenditures followed financing, financingIt's been a day since the resolution was implemented, no clear direction yet, but the K-line is starting to tell a new story
First, look at $BTC lows: 79220, 79377, 79505, today 79709. Over the past week, each pullback bottom has been moving higher. Now look at the highs, from 84899 down to 81820, each time lower than the last
The support below is moving up, the resistance above is moving down, the two plates are slowly tightening. This is not calm, it's compression. The tighter the spring is squeezed, the stronger the rebound will be
There might be some movement tonight. Amazon's earnings report after market close, previously Google’s profit declined, Microsoft Azure exceeded expectations. The sentiment of tech stocks is all hanging on this AWS shot. If it’s good, risk appetite could push BTC to test the upper boundary. If it fails, this squeeze might break downward directly
So don’t be fooled by the boring market now, tonight is not the time to watch a show, it’s the time to watch the lines
The positions remain the same: above 81800 to 82000, below 79200 to 79700. Whichever side breaks out with volume first means the squeeze is broken. Follow that move, don’t bet heavily within the range
If you think the direction will come out tonight, press 1; if you think it will grind longer, press 2
#美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 $AMZN $ETH #Pratinjau Laporan Keuangan Palantir: Apakah Pertumbuhan Tinggi Bisa Mendukung Penilaian Tinggi Palantir will announce its Q3 financial report after the US stock market closes on November 2, with the exact date pending official confirmation. Previously, Q2 revenue grew 93% year-over-year, US commercial business increased 149%, and the company subsequently raised its annual revenue guidance. In the context of high valuation, can Q3 orders and revenue continue strong growth? yuumi report: Microsoft's earnings report caused the after-hours price to briefly approach +6%, now hovering around 550. Azure's quarterly revenue is about $33.2 billion, up 48% year-over-year, and next quarter they still dare to forecast growth of 49%–50%. Revenue of about 92.3 billion also exceeded expectations. However, free cash flow dropped about 30% year-over-year, commercial bookings fell 12%, so strong revenue realization doesn't necessarily mean orders can catch up. Google's next door just took a hit, so don't treat this as a victory declaration and rush in here.
$MSFT #微软Q1营收增长，Azure增速至48%超预期 $AXIS top 10 holdings changed from 97.28 three hours ago to 96.6, with one top 10 holder address selling nearly 10 million tokensTonight at 20:30, the US September PCE data will be released 👀
Core PCE monthly rate is expected at 0.3%, previous value 0.2%, annual rate expected to rise from 3.0% to 3.1%
Last night, the Federal Reserve just announced it will keep interest rates unchanged, and among the 10 voting members, 2 supported a rate hike, showing a clearly hawkish stance
If the core PCE exceeds expectations, it indicates that inflation stickiness may be stronger than the market imagines, giving the Federal Reserve more reason to turn more hawkish, which is not good news for $BTC, gold $XAU, and US stocks
Conversely, if the PCE is below expectations, market concerns about monetary policy may ease, and risk assets could see a rebound
If economic growth remains strong and inflation does not come down, the Federal Reserve may really have little room for easing in the short term
After tonight's data release, I will first observe the reaction of US Treasury yields and the dollar, then see how BTC and gold move
After all, what the market fears most now may no longer be an economic recession, but inflation that won't come down
#美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 I think in the short term, attracting buying interest, memes are often easier than technical narratives. Once you get the meme, you can spread it; technical projects still need to explain what problems they solve and who will actually use them, which sounds mentally taxing.
But I also don't think that just because a dog coin is popular, it will easily rise. A screen full of memes might just be the same group of people hyping each other up, with not many new buyers. Even good technology doesn't necessarily get immediate recognition, which is quite frustrating. If developers spend a long time explaining but a dog picture works better, then who should actually present at the roadshow?10年期美债收益率5.02%，美元指数102.1，12月加息概率85%——这是FOMC留给风险资产的三道紧箍咒。今晚20:30，美国9月核心PCE物价指数公布。市场等的不是方向，是“够不够疼”。 BTC：钱回来了，杠杆没回来。 现价约81,260美元，美国现货比特币ETF 10月27日净流入1.76亿美元，连续第二日流入。但价格涨2.3%时，未平仓合约反降0.1%；资金费率0.0090%，贴着基准线，不拥挤。过去24小时清算中空头占75.3%。抬上去的是空头回补，不是新钱。📈 条件句：若PCE核心同比高于预期，81,000—80,000区间被快速回踩的概率不低；ETF流入只能托底，不能单独发动趋势。 ETH：机构在撤，远古在卖。 现价约2,331美元，10月至今跌13.6%，指向2018年以来最差10月。美国现货ETH ETF本月净流出约13.5亿美元，为历史第二大月度流出；20个交易日中17天失血。同期，休眠多年的早期钱包向Coinbase、Kraken累计转入约5.6万枚ETH，基金会关联地址也有移动。资金费率仅0.0022%，冷到几乎没人愿意为多头付费。📉 条件句：2,250Conclusion first: OKX officially announced a new round of XDP trading rewards this afternoon, with a prize pool of 15 million tokens. The rules have changed: only perpetual contracts count, and an additional ANTHROPIC pair is included.
Let's look at the money. XDP's current price is 0.0193, and 15 million tokens equate to about 290,000 USD, accounting for 1.5% of the circulating supply. Within a month, OKX has already launched three rounds on XDP: 20 million spot tokens on 9/28, 20 million Wallet phase 2 tokens on 10/12, and today 15 million perpetual tokens, totaling 55 million tokens, roughly 5.5% of the circulating supply, with rewards credited before 11/6.
The threshold is not low: a single account must have a trading volume starting at 5000 USDT, with a cap of 50,000 tokens, distributed proportionally based on effective trading volume. XDPUSDT has a 1.2x token multiplier, ANTHROPICUSDT only 1.0x, and the first two days also stack a 1.3x early bird multiplier.
But depth is worth noting. The combined top 20 buy and sell orders for XDP perpetual contracts total less than 400 USD; ANTHROPIC is Anthropic's pre-IPO equity perpetual contract without spot backing, with about 5000 USD depth across 20 levels. Setting the threshold at this depth means slippage will be a factor.
Will you be trading XDP or ANTHROPIC, or wait until the rewards arrive on 11/6 to see the selling pressure? $XDPThe Federal Reserve will reduce the number of interest rate decisions starting in 2027. I think this is somewhat neutral, even slightly positive. $BTC $ETH $SNDK
Wash said this time that there will still be 8 meetings per year, but in 2027 there will be 1 meeting dedicated to discussing long-term strategy, with no voting or statements issued; by 2028, these strategic meetings are expected to increase to 2, and the number of interest rate decisions will drop to 6.
In other words, it means cutting down on "meetings just for the sake of meetings" formalities and leaving time for thinking about the long-term framework, which is a sound direction.
In the short term, the impact on the market is limited, but as the intervals between meetings lengthen, each decision will carry more weight. If data suddenly changes in between, volatility might actually increase.
The core logic for trading remains unchanged: keep a close eye on the actual path of interest rates and don’t get hung up on the fact that there are fewer meetings. #美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 #谷歌Q3营收增长，净利润下滑、每股收益不及预期 #微软Q1营收增长，Azure增速至48%超预期 $BTC Big bro Maji's three short positions in BTC, ETH, and SOL are all currently at a floating loss. As the market moves up, the funding fees can only recover a bit. Looking at the positions alone is quite painful, but when viewed in the overall account ledger, it's a different story.$GOOGL $BTC
Google plummeted after releasing its earnings report, retail investors panicked, but big players started bottom-fishing
After the earnings release, GOOGL plunged, with the price dropping from 328.04 to 288.22 USD
Interestingly, while the price was crashing, big players on Hyperliquid began to go long, with 19 accounts adding long positions totaling about 20.56 million USD
This is intriguing! On one side, the stock price is crashing and market sentiment is weakening Google, which doesn't like to make empty promises, and the rising "full-stack AI," have collided with a "bad time" that only recognizes numbers and ignores the future. Written by: Frank, MSX Maitong After-hours trading in the U.S. stock market overnight saw the release of Alphabet's earnings report, Google's parent company, with its stock price plunging more than 10% at one point, nearly erasing most of the gains from the past six months. Just looking at a few glaring numbers in the news flash, it really seems like Google's sky is falling—the search and advertising businesses all fell short of expectations, free cash flow recorded a shocking "negative $9.1 billion" (market expectation was about negative $3.5 billion), and the pressure from huge AI capital expenditures seems to be gnawing away at the cash cow. But if you read through the entire earnings call transcript and compare it with the long-term logic dissected recently in "Gemini 4.0 is so strong it’s going viral, is Google's AI counterattack here?", you will most likely find that this earnings report is far less pessimistic than the stock price suggests: Google's old business has indeed slowed down, but the progress of new businesses is also more vigorous than many imagine. This sharp drop is less a fundamental collapse and more a typical "transitional period miskill." This reminds me of the moments when Microsoft’s market repeatedly repriced around short-term performance, capital expenditures, and long-term returns during its cloud and AI transformation. Google just happened to hit such a "bad time" that only recognizes current numbers and is unwilling to pay for the future. 1. Breaking down the "explosive" earnings report: Is it a fundamental slowdown? Let's first lay out the market's most panic-inducing "thunder points".Headline: The Fed "didn't raise rates," but why can't Bitcoin rally?
FOMC maintained the interest rate at 3.75%–4.00% with a 10:2 vote, while Governor Cook and Cleveland Fed President Hammack advocated for a 25BP hike;
The statement upgraded the economic wording from "solid" to "strong," Chair Waller said price stability has not yet been achieved, and clearly stated that no further forward guidance will be given unless a crisis occurs.
Three suppressing factors:
The no-rate-hike was already priced in (about 90% market expectation before the meeting), so the news brought no incremental positive impact;
The probability of a rate hike in December jumped from 75% to 81%–86%, with the market already betting on another 25BP hike on 12/9;
The 10-year US Treasury yield rose above 5%, the 2-year yield once hit 4.78%, and the dollar approached its yearly high—holding US Treasuries yields 5% interest, while non-yielding BTC is being neglected.
On the funding side, the US BTC spot ETF saw net inflows of about $286 million combined on 10/26 and 10/27, but $774 million just flowed out on the 22nd–23rd, and the gap has yet to be filled.CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju's latest analysis reads a positive signal from ETF capital flows 📊
He points out:
Since the beginning of this year, net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs have been close to zero, yet BTC price has only dropped about 7%
What does this "price resilience" indicate?
He believes: With limited ETF demand, the price remaining relatively stable means the likelihood of large-scale sell-offs by early holders or miners is low — some investors who intended to sell may have already completed their reductions
Expectations going forward:
He anticipates that once uncertainties related to the U.S. midterm elections subside and ETF funds flow back in, Bitcoin's upward momentum may resume
Ki Young Ju focuses on the outcome indicator of "whether the price has sharply dropped due to selling pressure," rather than simply looking at the absolute numbers of capital flow. If ETF inflows are nearly zero this year but the price decline is relatively limited, it can indeed be inferred that selling pressure is not as large as imagined. However, this judgment is more of an optimistic speculation that the "clearing of existing holdings is nearing completion." Whether this will materialize depends on whether ETF funds truly flow back in as expected.The whole Hormuz drama is just a scheme, don't be fooled
The Hormuz 7-day plan looks lively, but it's actually an extreme tug-of-war; $BZ oil prices simply can't fall deeply. The core issue is not whether the strait is open or not; the pricing logic of crude oil has completely changed. Don't be fooled by the fact that the strait's flow is almost back to pre-conflict levels; oil prices stubbornly hold above 110. Why? Because the market fears not a shortage of oil, but the surge in freight and insurance costs. There aren't enough oil tankers, and delivery costs have been forcibly pushed up. Global inventories have bottomed out, strategic reserves are empty, so crude oil can't fall in the short term, and this inflation fire won't be extinguished. UBS raising its forecast is a slap in the face to the pessimists.
Look at $XAUT gold's crazy shakeout around the 4000 mark; this is textbook liquidity stampede. After gold prices surged, programmatic stop-losses were triggered by data fluctuations, and leveraged funds were instantly liquidated, breaking through the level within half an hour. But after the drop, market makers and physical buyers immediately stepped in, pulling it back within minutes. This is not a trend reversal; it's old bulls closing positions and new bulls opening positions calling each other fools, clearing floating profit chips. As long as inflation stickiness remains, the December rate hike sword will always hang overhead.
Look at $BTC, macro high interest rates are tightly suppressing it, and there's no fresh liquidity off-exchange. Don't chase highs now; long-term bullish but short-term must guard against pullbacks. Shorting for the short term means shorting, stop-loss must be firmly set; don't stubbornly hold and turn it into a loss, no stop-loss is just giving money away.
Don't be dazzled by negotiation news and gold's deep V-shape; the trump card for oil prices has shifted from production to freight costs. #霍尔木兹重开方案浮现，油价回落能否持续？ Don't be fooled by headlines like "VanEck and Franklin both launch BTC ETFs" — these old money players aren't here to pump the market; they're quietly "covering their tracks."
WBMO targets a 2% position, fluctuating between 1%-5%; Franklin is even sneakier, backing 95% in US stocks and automatically buying BTC when dividends arrive. In plain language: this is slow money on a monthly dollar-cost averaging level, not the kind of fast money sweeping billions daily like the 2024 spot ETF.
Looking at the market makes it clear: BTC is just above $80,000, having steadily declined from $84,000 on the 19th; ETH is weaker around 2310, dropping over two points today, while the BTC/ETH ratio quietly strengthens. Funds are shrinking into BTC, altcoins are being abandoned — this is institutional portfolio adjustment sentiment, not a bull market kickoff.
That 2%-5% position from old money corresponds to bottom-support buying over the next six months to a year, not a bullish candle tomorrow. In the short term, don’t expect WBMO’s launch to immediately free you from losses; watch two numbers: whether BTC holds $78,000 and whether ETH breaks 2200.
The bottom support is real, but don’t expect a pump just yet. $BTC $ETH #VanEck与富兰克林推出含BTC配置的新型ETF Xiaomi's “Valuation Anchor”: When the Electric Vehicle Halo Meets a Capital Cold Wave
Xiaomi's stock price in today's Hong Kong market is undoubtedly the most "conspicuous" casualty.
As the Hang Seng Tech Index retreated by -1.5% overall, Xiaomi led the tech stocks with a decline of -4.61%, closing at HKD 25.66. Intraday, it once dipped to a low of HKD 25.52; although it slightly recovered near the close, the closing price still hovered near the day's low. This "bare-footed bearish candle" pattern often leaves investors more unsettled than a simple plunge—because it means that until the very last second of trading, sellers maintained absolute dominance, leaving bulls powerless to fight back.
Tokens related on OKX also faced pressure, dropping to 3.245, running close to the lower bound of the 24-hour range. This cross-market synchronized decline indicates that market sentiment is not just panic but a kind of confusion about the future.
This is not a "Black Swan"; this is a "Gray Rhino."
First, it must be clarified that today's heavy blow was not caused by any sudden shocking negative news from Xiaomi itself.
It is more like a long-planned "valuation correction." We must note that as early as October 22, Xiaomi had already recorded a bearish candle of -3.73%. Today marks the second consecutive large bearish candle with an expanded decline. This shows that capital is withdrawing in an orderly manner, or rather, the market is conducting a brutal "stress test" on Xiaomi's pricing logic.
Victory and defeat both lie with Xiao He: The two sides of the electric vehicle story Before BTC confirms a rise, altcoin rallies basically rely on strong sentiment support, and most eventually fall back; $NEAR and $BCH are examples. PEPE is still at a high level, not because it's stronger, but because Justin Sun hoarded about $51.25 million in 10 days, and the 2.27 trillion tokens transferred out by a whale were also bought up by buyers. Large holders control 94.66% of the supply, so someone is buying at the high.
But the quality of support is deteriorating: the resistance is at 0.00000510-0.00000520 above, and the RSI at 66.79 is close to overbought. PEPE supply on exchanges first decreased then increased; some took advantage of the rebound to move coins back, indicating potential selling pressure is accumulating.
Therefore, in the short term, it is more resilient than NEAR and BCH, but holding up does not mean no further drop. If BTC continues to consolidate or decline, the drop is just a matter of time. Only if it can break and hold above 0.00000520 with volume, will it be a true breakthrough, depending on whether those buyers are willing to keep buying. $PEPE This crappy toy company is really disgusting, damn disgusting to the core!
Shorting other coins is for profit, but shorting this thing is basically donating blood to the dog whales!
The funding rates have numbed me; every day they take our short sellers' money to give benefits to the bulls. I'm almost drained dry by this extreme positive funding rate!
Bro, I totally understand how you feel right now.
Seeing my account not only not making money but also being charged 5.7U in funding fees, plus a -118% floating loss, it really makes me want to kill.
These dog whales rely on controlling the market tightly, using funding rates to wear us down.
$UNITREE was pulled up to 104.24 last night, did you see that long upper shadow?
That's the limit it could reach! And today?
It’s been steadily dropping, now down to 95.45, nearly a 2% drop for the whole day.
What does this mean?
It means it simply can’t be pushed up anymore!
The dog whales distributed all their chips above 104, now they’re slowly grinding it down.
The so-called "Embodied Intelligence Pilot Base injected 20 million yuan" news is purely a smokescreen to facilitate selling.
This thing has completely weakened; the moving averages are like high-pressure lines suppressing it, and each rebound is weaker than the last.
It’s like a grasshopper after autumn, it won’t jump for many more days. If you chase longs now, you’re just a pure bag holder.
Don’t be scared off by the small funding rate, hold your short positions tight.
The dog whales are in their last frenzy; once this wave of sentiment is exhausted, breaking below 90 is just a matter of time.
Let’s fight to the end and see who outlasts whom!
$BTC
$ETH
#美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 Where is the biggest bet on $SPCX? What impact would a Democratic victory in the upcoming midterm elections have on SPCX?
If the Democrats win the midterms, the first to be liquidated would be Marx's enterprises. Tech stocks would collectively come under pressure, and the market values of SPCX and Tesla would rapidly decline.
Also, regarding how SPCX secures government contracts and other reasons, Marx heavily supports the Republican Party, having donated a total of $446 million.
In the short term, Chaige leans bearish after the midterms because the subsequent Anthropic IPO on Nasdaq could drag down the storage and AI sectors.
Based on Chaige's extensive experience, stocks with high hype usually fall right after going public.
#美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 #谷歌Q3营收增长，净利润下滑、每股收益不及预期 #微软Q1营收增长，Azure增速至48%超预期 Losing $0.15 is still good news: Coinbase reports Q3 after market close tonight, last year at the same time it earned $1.44.
Market expects revenue of $1.2 billion, down 36% from $1.87 billion last year.
Last quarter it already shocked: expected to earn $0.14, actually lost $0.39, stock dropped 10.6% the next day.
Interestingly, the earnings expectations themselves conflict: consensus is a loss of $0.15, but the most accurate forecasts predict a gain of $0.07.
The stock price has already fallen: closed at $162.32 on October 28, down about 27% year-to-date.
I think tonight's focus is not on profit or loss, but whether trading volume has stopped bleeding and if subscription revenue can hold up; observing, not chasing.
The failure point is revenue falling below $1.2 billion and subscription revenue also declining, then the "platform transformation" narrative is invalid.
Do you think tonight will be an earnings surprise correction or confirmation of three consecutive losses?
$COIN $BTC
#Coinbase #EarningsReport做合约的人几乎都知道"资金费率"这个词，但真把它算明白的不多。今晚 BTC 资金费率 0.0035%，多空账户比 2.2，这两个数字放在一起其实藏着不少信息，正好借实时数据把这套机制讲透。 一、资金费率为什么存在 永续合约没有交割日，理论上合约价可以和现货价彻底脱钩。为了让两者贴着走，交易所设计了资金费率：合约价高于现货价（溢价）时费率为正，多头按仓位付钱给空头；合约价折价时费率为负，反过来空头付给多头。注意方向：是"付给对方"，交易所一分不赚，它只是个过账通道。 二、账要怎么算 费用 = 名义仓位 × 费率，多数所每 8 小时收一次（部分热门合约改为 4 小时甚至 1 小时）。举例：10 万 U 的名义仓位，费率 0.01%，一次就是 10U，一天三次 30U，一个月下来约 900U——相当于本金的 0.9%。这就是为什么横盘行情里有人拿着对冲仓位专门"薅费率"：费率高的时候，躺着收钱的收益不比冒险做方向差。 三、今晚的数据怎么读 BTC 费率只有 0.0035%，远低于常见的 0.01% 基准线，接近中性。也就是说合约价格和现货价格几乎没溢价，市场没有明显的单边拥挤。 更有意思的是Strategy Earnings Preview: When Paper Wealth Meets Cash is King
The curtain is about to rise on Strategy's earnings season, and the rebound in Bitcoin (BTC) paper gains will undoubtedly dominate all financial news headlines. In this market narrative dominated by Bitcoin prices, any company holding a large amount of BTC will see its profit and loss statement exhibit remarkable elasticity in response to price fluctuations.
However, before cheering for a string of astronomical numbers, there is a key date every investor should remember: as early as October 5, the company disclosed that it expected digital asset revenue of approximately $20.91 billion for the third quarter. This means that this seemingly astonishing "big number" is not a surprise on the earnings release day but an expectation already priced in by the market.
When paper wealth becomes an open card, the market's focus will no longer be satisfied with the floating profits on the income statement but will instead fixate like a hawk on the underlying logic of the balance sheet.
The Battle Between Paper Wealth and Cash Thirst
If the final earnings results do not differ much from the previous estimates, the market's next questions will become sharp and specific:
- Financing arrangements: To maintain this massive position or further expand, does the company have new financing plans? Will it issue new shares to dilute equity, or issue convertible bonds to increase leverage?
- Dollar reserves: Is the dollar cash on the books sufficient? Can it cover short-term operating expenses and debt repayments?
#美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 ETF net inflow of $110 million, but only IBIT is buying, all other institutions are zero. This figure is more worth watching than the price itself. Is the hype fake? BTC is now at 80389, with a daily amplitude of less than 1300, both bulls and bears are waiting for the Federal Reserve. On the surface, it looks like a low-volume consolidation, but a closer look at the capital structure reveals the problem: only BlackRock is absorbing in the ETF channel. This is not a broad-based risk appetite rebound, but more like a single institution's allocation action in a specific window. In other words, there is no exponential buying, and the price "stability" is supported by a few buyers. The liquidation data also confirms this fragility. $125 million was liquidated, 54% of which were long positions, indicating that leveraged longs were trimmed around 80K. This is not panic deleveraging, but enough to make short-term positions cautious. ETH holds at 2336, the 2300 bottom is still intact, XRP at 1.29 is close to the 1.27 triangle support. Altcoins have no independent narrative, all eyes are on whether BTC can hold this range. The real trade is not "whether the Fed will cut or not," but "how much of the rate cut expectation has already been priced in." A 90% probability of no change means the decision itself is not the variable; Powell's speech wording is. If the dot plot is hawkish, the psychological level of 80K is likely to be retested, with 79500 as the short-term defense line below; if the wording is dovish, 81800 is the first resistance above. Bullish path: a single institution continues to buy + short covering, breaking through 81800 after the decision, altcoins follow the rise. Potential risk: ETF buying ⚠️ Divergent market! The trends of four tokens are split, each hiding some tricks
$HYPE｜80.3 📶
Slight rebound in 24 hours, price bounced from 78 to above 80. The platform market makers continue to add liquidity, improving the depth of derivatives order books. But be clear: this wave is driven by dividend expectations, not by a large influx of new off-exchange funds, so sustainability is questionable.
$BICO｜0.0156 🔧
Short-term turned positive and recovered, closing up for the day, but the weekly chart still shows a downtrend. The narrative of paying Gas fees is ongoing; currently, it can only be seen as a partial oversold rebound, with recovery just starting. The resistance above hasn't been fully digested, so don't rush to see it as a reversal.
$ENA｜0.1983 🌾
Dropped 6.81% in one day, giving back all gains made in the past two days on rate cut expectations. The underlying logic of interest-bearing tokens holds in a high-interest environment, but tokens pumped purely on expectations carry high risk of being harvested repeatedly. Be cautious.
$ASTER｜0.705 🛰️
A multi-chain contract DEX, currently basically idle capital. Although deployed on multiple public chains, trading is quiet, with funds held tight awaiting decisions. Without new catalyst projects, it’s hard to attract attention for now.
#10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 📊Hidden signals in the market! Key data of three cryptocurrencies quietly turning
The market looks flat, but the underlying data has quietly changed. Here's a breakdown for you 👇
$BTC｜80680 📉
Coinbase premium continues to narrow. This premium is a barometer of US retail sentiment; the premium's decline means that although US retail investors are still entering the market, their eagerness to chase highs has clearly cooled, and buying pressure has slowed.
$ETH｜2338 ⛽
Median gas fees continue to fall, but this does not indicate a decline in on-chain activity. A large number of ordinary transactions have migrated to Layer 2. Now, the main chain mostly handles high-value operations like cross-bridge interactions and large transfers. The role of Ethereum as a settlement layer is becoming increasingly clear.
$SOL｜101.5 🔒
The staking ratio of SOL is steadily rising, with long-term funds choosing to lock up tokens to earn staking rewards. Circulating supply decreases accordingly, indirectly tightening selling pressure. This is a very typical signal of long-term capital positioning.
#10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 #谷歌Q3营收增长，净利润下滑、每股收益不及预期 Google's Q3 earnings report is very representative: revenue continues to grow, but profit and EPS fall short of expectations, leading to a sharp drop after hours. The core issue is the huge investment in AI computing power, with capital expenditures soaring, while search ad monetization can't keep up with AI traffic growth. Although the cloud business is impressive, it currently can't withstand the massive computing power costs.⚠️Crude oil plummets, why doesn't the crypto market rise? ZEC faces a life-or-death test tonight!
Many ask: Crude oil has dropped, inflation is cooling down, shouldn't the crypto market take off? The logic isn't wrong, but distant water won't quench immediate thirst! Tonight ZEC is currently at 1251, hiding deadly risks.
📊Why is oil falling seen as bearish?
1. Inflation remains stubborn: Although crude oil has dropped, WTI is still high at $101, so inflation hasn't truly cooled.
2. US bonds are bleeding heavily: The 10-year US Treasury yield has surged to 5.02%, offering very high risk-free returns, causing large funds to withdraw from crypto and other risky assets.
3. Recession fears: If oil falls due to demand slowdown (recession expectations), it deals a fatal blow to the high-risk crypto market.
📉Market reality:
After 16:15, ZEC's open interest strangely surged (from 141 million to 145 million), but the price stubbornly clings to 1251 without breaking through. This indicates large funds are heavily betting here, and bulls lack confidence. Bitcoin is barely holding at the 80,000 level and could break down at any time.
⏰Big test at 20:30 tonight:
US PCE inflation and GDP data will be released. If the data is hotter than expected, Bitcoin will break below 80,000, and ZEC will follow, smashing through 1240 straight down to 1230.
⚠️Data releases are extremely volatile with sharp spikes before and after; strictly reduce leverage and set stop losses. Control your trades and wait for clear direction before entering!$BTW dealer, you can keep pumping, wait for the unlock, see if anyone will take over your $18 billion market.🔥Storage's Three Musketeers rise in sync! The core logic is surprisingly different
Today the storage sector moved collectively, but the underlying logic for the three rising companies is completely different. Don't mix them up 👇
$SKHYNIX Hynix｜1119 💾
Q3 earnings released, Nvidia's HBM4 orders exceeded expectations, soaring 7.81% in one day. It is the core main supplier of HBM4, with orders locked by major manufacturers. Next, focus on the HBM4 mass production schedule, which is the next big catalyst.
$xMU Micron｜963 🧠
Micron's main business is DRAM; HBM is a new track. Hynix's orders exploded, indirectly confirming the HBM demand surge. Funds have also driven the pursuer up, closing up 3.38%. But be clear: its HBM4 progress is slower than Hynix's, so this is speculation on catching up expectations.
$SNDK SanDisk｜1361 💿
Key point! SanDisk focuses on NAND flash memory and does not do HBM at all. Although AI servers require large-capacity storage, it is unrelated to the HBM track. This rise is purely sector sentiment spillover without its own HBM benefits. Be sure to distinguish its position.
By the way $BTC｜80647 📊
The storage sector is booming, but BTC remains flat and sideways. Funds are crowded to bet on the AI hardware cycle, with no flow into the crypto market. Before the FOMC decision early tomorrow, BTC will most likely continue to maintain a wait-and-see stance.