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$BTC Brothers, the market is showing very obvious divergence signals again. The overall market is slightly moving down, and both Bitcoin and Ethereum are not falling sharply, but the sentiment between longs and shorts in the contracts has already diverged.
Currently, BTC's funding rate is stuck in the middle, neither leaning bullish nor bearish; everyone is still watching and not betting decisively on one side. In contrast, Ethereum is different; its funding rate has dropped below the bearish line, indicating that more people in the contracts are bearish and more willing to short ETH. $ETH
Simply put, whenever the market stirs a bit, Ethereum tends to fall harder than Bitcoin. We've discussed before that whales have been cashing out, ETF funds are weak, and now contract sentiment is following suit, meaning negative factors are piling up.
But remember, the funding rate only reflects current sentiment; it doesn't mean a big drop is guaranteed once this signal appears. Sometimes, when shorts pile up too much, a sharp rally can occur to squeeze the shorts.
In this kind of divergent market, don't just blindly short ETH because it looks weak. If Bitcoin holds and doesn't crash, Ethereum is unlikely to experience a large drop on its own; but if Bitcoin breaks down, Ethereum's decline will likely be amplified. Contract traders must distinguish this clearly: right now, Ethereum is the more fragile one in the market, carrying higher risk than BTC.
$SOL
#美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 $UNI As of the end of August 2026, approximately 110 million UNI tokens have been burned in total, including a one-time treasury burn of 100 million tokens, and about 10 million tokens burned continuously through protocol fee switches.
Therefore: the one-time burn has already offset the "annual 20 million token inflation budget"; however, the continuous burn currently only partially covers it and has not yet been proven stable enough to cover it long-term.
Actual burn progress
Category Data Meaning
One-time burn 100 million UNI Executed on-chain on December 28, 2025, as retrospective compensation, not continuous revenue burn
Cumulative burn About 110 million tokens As of August 31, 2026, total burn value is approximately $630 million
Continuous burn About 10 million tokens From v2/v3 protocol fees, Unichain sequencer fees, etc., not part of the 100 million tokens
Recent peak Single-day high of about 186,000 tokens Record set in June 2026; multiple days exceeding 100,000 tokens burned after August
Recent average Daily burn value exceeding $400,000 since August Estimated at tens of thousands of tokens daily at current prices, annualized still below 20 million tokens
How does this compare to the "annual 20 million tokens"?
To be continuedDon't be brainwashed by the news of Sun Yuchen's $PEPE holdings to chase the price high! This is just an emotional play!
Recently, the whole community has been flooding this news: Arkham tagged addresses associated with Sun Yuchen that have been accumulating large amounts of PEPE within ten days, holding nearly 3% of the total supply at a cost of 0.000004115. Once the news broke, it immediately sparked a wave of hype and price surge. But everyone must be clear on the key point: the address is only an on-chain tag, and Sun himself has not publicly commented yet. Plus, everyone knows Sun's meme tactics—hype is always created to facilitate cashing out.
Combined with the unexpectedly hawkish Fed overnight, BTC and ETH are under collective pressure, and the entire crypto market's risk appetite has cooled down. Meme coins have no fundamental support; they rely on capital and stories. In a weakening market environment, this kind of hype-driven rally has very poor sustainability. Once big holders start selling off in batches, the dumping speed will be beyond imagination.
Direction is clear: absolutely do not chase the high! Short in the rebound range of 0.0000051-0.0000052, with the first target at 0.0000046.
Remember, Sun's chips were bought at low prices, so there is ample profit margin to dump. The news is just to find bag holders inside the market; don't expect the main force to carry everyone for free. With macro headwinds pressing down, meme hype comes fast and goes even faster. Don't catch the last high baton! The most important observation point for $QNT in the near term is the Q3 earnings report on November 5th—whether revenue growth can continue at a high pace, whether there are signs of marginal narrowing of losses, and the management's statements on the release schedule of Sol will be the first substantial test to determine if the current price level has fundamental support. Before that, the weak technical pattern and the upcoming earnings uncertainty mean that QNT is a high-risk, high-volatility, strongly narrative-driven asset. Its price behavior mainly reflects market sentiment pricing on the long-term prospects of quantum computing rather than current financial performance. #谷歌Q3营收增长，净利润下滑、每股收益不及预期 #GoogleQ3MixedResults
This quarter, $GOOGL was in a fierce tug-of-war. On one hand, driven by AI demand, Google Cloud soared an astonishing 103% to $30.7 billion. On the other hand, aggressive AI infrastructure spending pushed capital expenditures to $51.4 billion, resulting in its first negative free cash flow growth in decades. Wall Street is clearly highly focused on the short-term costs of the AI race right now.Ripple expects its product revenue to reach $900 million on an annualized basis by the end of the year. At first, I thought the business was doing well, but then I got stuck: is this expectation already priced into XRP? The company's revenue growth and the additional demand for the token seem to need separate consideration. Just looking at this news, I really can't judge whether the buying is waiting for the performance to be realized or if this expectation has already been traded long ago.$HYPE
First, I admit a mistake. Two hours ago, I wrote about HYPE, saying 78 held twice and the support looked okay. Just now I checked the on-chain data again; a certain address transferred 694,300 HYPE to Coinbase Prime and FalconX. At the current price, that's over $53 million, even bigger than the $38 million transfer earlier today. Both are outlets for selling.
Current price is 79.1, down 3% in 24 hours, touching 82.4 on the upside and dipping to 78.1 on the downside. Contract open interest is still nearly $100 million, with slightly positive funding rates, so the bulls haven't given up.
Nearly 5% of supply has been burned, platform revenue hit a new high, and all the news is positive. The price now only recognizes one thing: who's selling.
I change my stance. The two legs at 78 looked solid, but it seems more like someone is playing both sides—buying at the bottom and selling at the top. I wouldn't be surprised if it breaks again; chasing longs or shorts at this level isn't worth it, just let it play out.
#美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 Today (October 29), the A-share market broadly showed a pattern of index-wide declines, highly defensive capital, and thematic battles. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.82% to close at 3651.43 points, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 2.92%, the ChiNext Index plunged 4.45%, and the STAR 50 Index declined 4.27%. Over 4,700 stocks across the market fell, with turnover shrinking to 1.57 trillion yuan. Capital massively withdrew from growth sectors like electronics and semiconductors, instead clustering around defensive sectors such as banking, coal, and food & beverage, while engaging in localized thematic battles in policy-driven areas like commercial aerospace and robotics.
🛡️ Main Theme One: Safe Haven and Dividend Clustering — Banking, Coal, and Consumer Staples
This is the "safety cushion" direction where capital concentrated most today, characterized by high dividends, low valuations, and stable cash flow.
Banks were the strongest ballast throughout the day. Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and China Construction Bank hit new historical highs, with the total market value of the Big Four banks surpassing 10 trillion yuan for the first time. Qingdao Bank rose over 7%. The Shenwan Banking Industry Index saw a net inflow of over 2.6 billion yuan from main funds, standing out amid widespread market outflows.
Coal also strengthened in tandem. Kailuan Co. hit the daily limit, Haohua Energy, Shanxi Coking Coal, and Dayou Energy followed suit, and China Shenhua’s intraday stock price reached a new high. China Petroleum also hit an 18.5-year high since March 2008. High-dividend sectors like oil and power all rose against the market trend.
Consumer staples made localized breakthroughs centered on food and beverages. Qingdao Food advanced to a fourth consecutive daily limit, Babi Food and Huifa Food both hit daily limits, with Yiming Food and Tianwei Food following. Food and beverage sectors saw a net inflow of over 2.2 billion yuan from main funds, and the liquor sector also attracted more than 1 billion yuan net inflow.
🚀 Main Theme Two: Thematic Battles Under Policy Catalysts — Commercial Aerospace, Robotics, and Ice & Snow Economy
In a weak index environment, themes with clear policy catalysts became targets for short-term capital concentration.
Commercial aerospace was the most recognizable theme today. The catalyst was Shanghai’s six departments publicly releasing the Satellite Internet Industry Development Action Plan (2027–2030), proposing that by 2030, Shanghai’s satellite internet industry will have over 3,000 satellites in orbit and a core industry scale exceeding 80 billion yuan. Within the sector, multiple stocks including China Satellite, Aerospace Morning Light, Shanghai Hugong, Shunhao Co., Shanghai Harbor, and Western Materials hit daily limits. The aerospace equipment sector index surged nearly 8% intraday with turnover more than doubling compared to yesterday. The military-civil fusion sector saw a net inflow of over 4 billion yuan from main funds, with low-altitude economy, commercial aerospace, and large aircraft sectors each attracting over 3 billion yuan net inflow.
The robotics concept continued its strength but with increasing internal divergence. Guangyang Co. achieved a fourth consecutive daily limit, Dongbei Group a third, and Shandong Mining Machinery, Lianming Co., and Yujing Co. each had two consecutive daily limits. The driving force comes from the "Shanghai Action Plan to Accelerate the Development of a New Generation of Intelligent Manufacturing," which proposes promoting 8,000 humanoid robots into factories and an AI-enabled new intelligent manufacturing equipment industry scale exceeding 200 billion yuan. However, the sector showed clear high-level divergence, with earlier popular stocks hitting limit-downs, and capital shifting from pure chasing to a "high-low cut" strategy.
The ice and snow economy was catalyzed by the season. Ice Mountain Cold and Longjiang Transportation hit daily limits, with the ice and snow tourism concept gaining capital attention as winter approaches.
Additionally, the short drama concept saw Wentu Holdings record 4 daily limits in 7 days, and film theater direction stocks like Hengdian Film and Xiangyuan Cultural Tourism hit daily limits, representing localized rotation within media.
📉 Outflow Direction: Semiconductors and Computing Hardware Face Systematic Sell-off
The harshest direction today was precisely the tech growth mainline that was recovering the previous day. The semiconductor sector saw a net outflow of 13.64 billion yuan from main funds throughout the day, with communication equipment and components also experiencing large outflows. The electronics sector overall had a net outflow exceeding 25.3 billion yuan, and communications net outflow exceeded 8.9 billion yuan.
Individual stock declines were extremely severe: Tianfu Communication intraday nearly hit a 20% limit down, closing down nearly 19%; New Ease dropped over 10%, Zhongji Xuchuang fell over 8%, Dongshan Precision hit limit down, and multiple stocks including Guangku Technology, Liante Technology, Changyingtong, and Baiwei Storage fell over 10%. The trigger was Google and Samsung’s earnings missing market expectations, shaking confidence in the AI camp, compounded by the previous day’s violent rebound in computing hardware driven by SK Hynix’s earnings report, leading profit-taking after external negative news.
💎 Summary
The core contradiction in today’s A-share market is "the external validation of the AI narrative has cracked, forcing capital to shrink from growth narratives toward certainty and policy narratives." The earnings flaws of Google and Samsung abruptly ended the computing hardware recovery ignited by SK Hynix the day before, with the semiconductor sector’s single-day net outflow of over 13.6 billion yuan as the most direct evidence. Meanwhile, banking, coal, and food & beverage sectors absorbed safe-haven capital due to high dividends and low valuations, with the Big Four banks’ total market value surpassing 10 trillion yuan marking a milestone. Commercial aerospace and robotics, driven by clear local policy catalysts in Shanghai, became among the few sustainable thematic battle directions amid weakness. This "dividend defense + policy theme" combination is likely to remain the main capital refuge until macro uncertainties (Fed hawkish pause, AI earnings divergence) are resolved.$GOOGL
A friend messaged me late at night saying AI trading was over and Google's earnings report dragged the market down. I replied that it’s not AI that’s falling, but AI’s bill.
Google’s Q3 revenue was $127.6 billion, up 25% year-over-year, but the problem lies elsewhere: diluted EPS was $2.12, 30% below analysts’ expectation of $3.02. This is the first time in nearly four years that it missed both revenue and profit. Even worse, free cash flow turned negative $9.1 billion, compared to positive $24.4 billion in the same period last year. Capital expenditures were $51.4 billion, doubling year-over-year, and the company said it will continue to increase significantly through 2027.
The market wants you to spend money and get profits in return. Now profits haven’t come, but the bill has arrived first. The stock price dropped over 10% to 290 in after-hours trading.
On OKX, Google tokens are now at 292, with $130 million traded in 24 hours and an open interest of 37 million. Some are really betting on contracts that it will continue to fall.
I don’t think this is a collapse of AI faith; it’s just that the payers are feeling the pain first. The big model business is still early, and cash flow will filter out those who can’t afford to play.
Tonight, PCE and GDP will collide again with earnings season. A takeaway: going forward, what to watch is not how much Google falls, but whose free cash flow turns positive first.
#美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 Binance Contracts are launching six US stock perpetuals tonight; it's not the variety that's fierce, but the timing.
Starting at 18:05, six USDT-margined perpetuals for Brazilian small-cap ETF, NuScale, Occidental Petroleum, Amgen, Pfizer, and MercadoLibre will open in six batches, one every five minutes, with the last batch at 18:30. All offer 20x leverage, run 24/7 nonstop, settle funding fees every 8 hours, with funding fee caps at ±2%, and a minimum order size of 5 USDT.
The key is the timing. After the Nasdaq closes and New York goes dark, these stock contracts keep moving. Earnings reports come after hours, news arrives at midnight; previously, you had to wait for the next day’s open, but now prices move immediately in one direction. The US stock market’s opening price mechanism is brought into a market that never closes.
For those trading $BTC and $ETH, this is not just about more instruments. With the same margin and account, you can hedge stock risk over the weekend and use US stock crashes at midnight to leverage crypto positions. Volatility in the two markets is starting to infect each other.
Behind the excitement, two points must be clear. Stock perpetuals have no real stock delivery; prices rely on indices and funding fees to revert, so extreme discounts or premiums can be exaggerated. With 20x leverage combined with 24/7 trading and no closing to cool off, a single spike can liquidate a batch of traders.
Tools have become stronger, but tolerance for error has shrunk. The candlestick before Monday’s open will be crazier than before.After watching Google's report, I looked at Microsoft's earnings report. Why can Microsoft rise pre-market after the earnings report as well? Microsoft's earnings report continues the analysis model used for Google, looking at five key factors: revenue + AI capital expenditure + free cash flow + future guidance + Azure or AI monetization. Revenue: excellent, growth is accelerating again, with revenue, operating profit, earnings per share (EPS), and cloud business performance all exceeding expectations. AI capital expenditure: very high, and under capital expansion, there is guaranteed growth in Azure and AI revenue, representing effective and healthy expansionary capital spending, which gives the market more confidence compared to Google's capital expenditure. Free cash flow: still growing, maintaining positive FCF despite over a hundred billion in AI infrastructure investment in one year. Although free cash flow is still suppressed by capital expenditure, there is performance assurance, at least maintaining a breakeven. #微软Q1营收增长，Azure增速至48%超预期 Azure: the core business remains the strongest data in the earnings report, with a year-over-year growth of 48%. Looking back over the past few quarters, it has risen from 39% to 48%. Azure continues to accelerate on such a large revenue base, further confirming that Microsoft's AI commercialization is becoming more complete. Future guidance: expected next quarter Azure constant currency growth to rise to 49%-50%. Once next quarter's data is achieved, it will continue to prove that Azure's growth is still in an acceleration phase. AI Monetization: Microsoft's AI monetization is not yetThe $BTC Glassnode weekly report clearly points out that BTC faces significant resistance at the $85,000 mark, with recent rebounds repeatedly blocked in the $84,000–$85,000 range. This price level is critical due to the cost distribution of long-term holders—approximately 4 million BTC were purchased in the $85,000–$118,000 range, with more than half of the purchase prices above the current price, creating substantial potential selling pressure to break even. Once the price rises near this area, long-term holders tend to sell to realize breakeven, thereby suppressing upward momentum. Since the rebound in September, BTC's daily closing price has only exceeded $85,000 on 5 days, with the longest consecutive period above this level being just 3 days. Burn rate surged 42,886%, so why can't SHIB still rise? — A breakdown of the "deflation illusion"
SHIB's 24-hour burn rate soared 42,886%, with two large transactions burning about 1.42 million tokens, and a historical cumulative burn reaching 410.85 trillion tokens. However, during the same period, net spot fund inflows into exchanges, selling volume dominance, funding rates dropping to 0.0036%, and RSI and MFI remaining below the neutral line were observed. The core judgment of this article is: burning is a "stock subtraction," while selling pressure is a flow issue; the former changes the narrative, the latter determines the price. The key watershed is at $0.00000483 — holding it allows for recovery, losing it opens the downside.
The most easily misunderstood aspect of SHIB is that its community culture and asset attributes are two different things. The community enthusiasm is real, and the sincerity of burning is real, but none of these directly translate into buying pressure. The crypto market ultimately recognizes only one thing: whether new money is coming in.
The current data answers: no. Chips in exchanges are increasing, leveraged longs are decreasing, indicators are recovering but have not crossed the midline. This is a typical market with excess heat but insufficient funds.
Therefore, before $0.00000483 is effectively held with volume expansion, I prefer to define this round of market action as a technical breather within a downtrend continuation. Burn data is worth recording but not chasing the rise.
#谷歌Q3营收增长，净利润下滑、每股收益不及预期 $SHIB
A decade ago, card settlement hardly involved on-chain assets; in Visa's latest fiscal quarter report, the annualized run rate for stablecoin settlements reached about $25 billion—approximately a 10-fold year-over-year increase.
What happened: The CEO revealed during the earnings call that the number of supported blockchains doubled from last year to about 10, with settlements launched across five regions; asset types include USDC, USDG, EURC, PYUSD, and others. Another line of business is the stablecoin co-branded card project, which has over 225 cards—this is a separate metric from settlement volume, so don't confuse the two.
Why it matters: Traditional payment giants are laying the groundwork by treating stablecoins as "settlement fiat," showing impressive growth; however, compared to Visa Direct's roughly $1.5 trillion volume, this is still just a fraction, and the 10-fold increase mostly comes from a very low base. The annualized pace does not equal the total amount settled in the year, nor does it mean stablecoins are replacing card payments.
Confidence level: Company financial disclosures. Are you more focused on the continued rise in settlement run rate, or on whether real spending on co-branded cards is keeping pace?
$USDC $ETH $PYUSDSanDisk is about to announce its new quarterly earnings report. What I most want to remind myself is not to replace today's judgment criteria with past low baselines.
The company's previous guidance for this quarter already indicated revenue between $10.3 billion and $10.8 billion, with non-GAAP diluted EPS of $44 to $46. In other words, the market was already expecting a very strong performance.
Year-over-year growth is particularly high, which is certainly commendable, but it may not be enough to constitute a new surprise. Where the final results land within the original guidance, and how management describes the next quarter, will influence investors' subsequent judgments.
If this quarter's results are impressive but next quarter's outlook becomes cautious, the stock price may come under pressure; if growth continues to be supported by orders and deliveries, the market has more reason to extend this optimism.
I am not pessimistic about storage demand, but after several rounds of earnings reports, I am increasingly reluctant to directly link "strong performance growth" with "post-earnings stock price increase."
When the company announces the previous quarter's results, investors have already started pricing in the next quarter. When the numbers truly materialize, everyone naturally looks further ahead.
So tonight, I will first compare the actual results with the company's original guidance, then listen to the subsequent arrangements. High growth is already the baseline requirement for this test; what really tests SanDisk is whether it can continue to deliver content that exceeds expectations.
#闪迪存储业务高增长能否延续？ Samsung just made history, but not everywhere. 🎯
Q3 operating profit hit KRW 107.4T on AI memory demand. Net profit missed forecasts, and Device eXperience slipped into a KRW 0.8T loss.
Multi-year contracts and KRW 29T in capex show a huge bet on AI.
Will it still pay off in 2027? Share your take 👇
#SamsungQ3RecordProfit #微软Q1营收增长，Azure增速至48%超预期 Money is still being burned, but it's being spent with a plan. This quarter, capital expenditures plus finance leases reached $45.2 billion, 30% more year-over-year, yet less than the expected $50.7 billion. CFO Hood said this was due to delays in third-party computing power delivery. Free cash flow was $18.63 billion, down 27%, but still positive, whereas Google's was negative over $9 billion this quarter.
Hood also stated that cash flow will be positive for the entire fiscal year 2027. Currently, about 75% of the money is spent on short-lived assets like chips and graphics cards, up from only half a year ago. They first buy computing power that can be immediately monetized, and postpone building infrastructure. The cost is that total spending in 2027 will reach $170 billion.BTC tug-of-war near 80,000: overhead selling pressure from unlocking positions, support battle below
$BTC
BTC continues to fluctuate around $80,000, with the chip structure revealing long and short logic.
Glassnode's holding cost heatmap shows that long-term holders with positions over 155 days hold about 4 million BTC concentrated at costs between $85,000 and $118,000. When the market rebounds near $85,000, there will be a willingness to unlock and realize profits, creating selling pressure above. But note, concentrated costs ≠ concentrated dumping, and on-chain transfers do not equate to real secondary market transactions.
#美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温
Short-term holders' chip concentration zones are at $77,000 and $64,000. The spot order book also shows clear differences: there are about $42 million in support orders in the $78,000–$79,000 range, but only $3.4 million in buy orders at the $80,000 level.
This is the root of the early bull market's repeated fluctuations: upward moves must digest unlocking sell pressure, downward moves test buy-side support.
I maintain the view that BTC is in the early stage of a bull market. However, the core driver of the next major rise is not unlocking sentiment but continuous new capital inflows. Some want to exit at highs, others wait to build positions at lows; the early bull phase is a stage of chip exchange.Only assets not recognized by banks get passed on to the chain 📦
LME wants to tokenize metals with "unissued warehouse receipts." Legitimate warehouse receipts have long been used to secure low-interest loans from traditional banks. This batch of physical goods, which can't be loaned against while stored in warehouses, is trying to use the name of RWA to find on-chain funds as a temporary financial boost 🧐
If bad debts really occur, smart contracts can't go into warehouses to move copper blocks. Tokens can be issued in minutes, but who will guarantee offline confirmation and disposal?
$BTC
$ETH Today (October 29), the Hong Kong stock market overall showed characteristics of index adjustment and sharp structural divergence. The Hang Seng Index closed down 0.59% at 22,958 points, falling below the 23,000 mark; the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped significantly by 2.84%. Funds generally shifted from highly volatile tech growth stocks to high-dividend value stocks with defensive attributes.
Today's capital in the Hong Kong stock market mainly focused on the following directions:
· AI Hardware and Semiconductors: Rallied in the morning session but funds cashed out by close: Driven by better-than-expected earnings from South Korea's leading memory companies and AI giants pushing for US stock listings, the chip and AI hardware sectors rose broadly in the morning. Huahong Hongli surged over 9% at one point, while SMIC, Lenovo Group, Zhipu, and MiniMax also attracted capital. However, in the afternoon, due to lower-than-expected capital expenditure expansion by overseas tech giants and the rebalancing pressure from the Hong Kong stock index futures settlement day, AI hardware stocks faced heavy selling pressure. Robotech closed down 18.97%, Jingwang Electronics fell 13.02%, Guanghe Technology dropped 12.93%, and Huahong Hongli and Lenovo Group turned from gains to losses, with the Hang Seng Tech Index's decline widening near the close.
· High Dividend and Energy: Continued safe-haven destination for funds: As tech stocks retreated, funds clearly flowed into sectors with high cash flow and dividend certainty such as oil, coal, and domestic banks. Supported by sustained high international oil prices and expectations for winter energy reserves, PetroChina saw net inflows in the morning and closed up over 3%. CNOOC and coal stocks stabilized against the trend. Banking stocks also received support from defensive funds, with ICBC closing up 2.30% and China Construction Bank up 2.12%.
· Chinese Financial Stocks: Post-earnings certainty attracted funds to cluster: The financial sector was the core force supporting the Hang Seng Index today. Ping An Insurance showed strong performance after earnings release, closing up 2.56%; China Life also recorded a 2.45% gain, with funds favoring low-valuation blue chips with realized earnings on the futures settlement day.
· Extreme Individual Stock Speculation and IPO Underperformance: Theme stocks saw intense speculation. Brain Dynamics Aurora surged nearly 22% in the morning but then plunged sharply, closing down over 16%. New IPO Dongshan Precision had a weak debut, falling over 6% intraday and closing down 0.7% at HKD 86.15.
Overall, today's Hong Kong stock trading was relatively restrained. At the intersection of futures settlement and external policy uncertainties, funds prioritized reducing holdings risk in the tech sector, shifting to heavy positions in Chinese financials and energy high-dividend defensive stocks. Market sentiment was generally defensive.The interest rate remains at 3.75% to 4.00%, with a vote of 10 to 2; members Cook and Harker advocate for an additional 25 basis points. $BTC $ETH $SNDK The key change is in the wording: the economic assessment was upgraded from "solid" to "strong," while inflation remains high. Translated, this means the economy is overheating, inflation can't be suppressed, and don't expect rate cuts in the short term. Don't be fooled by the phrase "no rate hike." For high-beta assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum, what matters is not whether rates move, but whether the dollar is strong, US Treasury yields are high, and whether capital dares to enter the market and take risks. If inflation continues to hold up and doesn't fall, the market will price in higher rates for longer, even betting on further hikes in December. Only if the economy truly cools down will the market have a chance to breathe. Currently, the negative factors are greater. #美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 #谷歌Q3营收增长，净利润下滑、每股收益不及预期 #微软Q1营收增长，Azure增速至48%超预期 The results are in, and each of the four coins has its own agenda
$BTC 80,647, staying put as expected 📊 At 2 AM, the Federal Reserve kept rates steady at 3.75%-4%, with 10 votes in favor and 2 against. Waller downplayed forward guidance, leaving the December rate hike uncertain. At the 80,647 level, the market waited a week just for this moment, but there were no surprises and the price didn’t move. Support below 80,000 remains.
$ENA Interest-bearing coin is waiting for high rates 🌾 Ethena’s USDe collateralized short-term U.S. Treasury interest-bearing, with yields linked to U.S. dollar rates. With the FOMC holding steady, the duration of high rates extends, increasing the appeal of interest-bearing stablecoins. At 0.198, the 8% gain from two days ago was fully given back; now it’s waiting for the next direction.
$ASTER Multi-chain contract DEX is still idle 🛰️ Aster has deployed perpetual contracts across several chains, at 0.705, with only a few hundred thousand USD in volume. The FOMC result is out, but funds are cautious; new chains without catalysts are being ignored.
$HYPE Hyperliquid is waiting for quarterly dividends 📊 Holding HYPE earns on-chain fee shares, and quarterly dividends are underway. At 80.2, it bounced slightly from lows, but contract positions didn’t follow, indicating dividend expectations rather than new capital inflows. Risk appetite remains unchanged after the FOMC.
#美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温
This article is for market analysis only and does not constitute investment advice$UNI, can the rebound in DEX trading volume translate into token value capture? Macro risk aversion may suppress speculative trading, but high volume could also stem from short-term volatility, not necessarily stable user demand. For governance tokens, protocol fees, retention, and value recirculation are more critical than nominal trading volume. If multi-chain volume expands and fees are sustainable, I would raise my confidence; if activity is concentrated in short-term speculation without changes in governance value, trading heat alone is insufficient to support valuation.ETF just bought 176 million, but BTC dropped below 80,000 - it's not that institutions stopped buying, but because the hawkish Fed has restrained buying power. $BTC: 80,049 USD. Net inflow from spot ETFs on the 28th reached 176 million USD, with BlackRock IBIT accounting for 151 million USD. However, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged, two members voted to support a rate hike, the probability of a rate hike in December remains at 78.4%, the 10-year Treasury yield once exceeded 5%, and risk assets are under pressure. The 80,000 mark is continuously tested #美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温
For BTC and ETH, the pause in rate hikes has already been priced in, data is on the hot side, and U.S. Treasuries and the dollar are strengthening again.
Currently, BTC may test $80,000 again, ETH's decline could be larger, and only if PCE cools down and the dollar and Treasury yields fall together will the rebound have sustainability.
Moreover, the U.S. will release the preliminary Q3 GDP and September PCE inflation data, which are the key to the next round of volatility and will affect whether Bitcoin has the strength to surge upward.
#谷歌Q3营收增长，净利润下滑、每股收益不及预期 #微软Q1营收增长，Azure增速至48%超预期 $BTC $ETH $ZEC #美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温
The Federal Reserve's October interest rate decision is out, maintaining rates unchanged as expected by the market.
When the market's betting probability exceeds 90%, it basically aligns with market forecasts.
Currently, the market mostly expects a rate hike in December. More importantly, it can be observed that in the October Fed rate decision, Walsh changed his 2027 voting count to 7 times with one instance as a policy discussion, and no longer relies on "forward guidance."
It is more likely that "real-time data" will be used, so the market may be more "sensitive" to data than before.
But relatively more important is that $BTC and $ETH remain at 80000 and 2300 respectively, with a relatively weak rebound.
What should be more concerning next is whether the Middle East situation will escalate further. After the midterm elections, an escalation could lead to rising crude oil prices, and risk assets like ETH will come under pressure 🤔
Be aware of the risks! Is the biggest buy order for HYPE coming from itself?
Hyperliquid has cumulatively repurchased and burned 49.87 million HYPE tokens, accounting for 4.99% of the maximum supply, valued at approximately $3.89 billion at the current price. In the past 24 hours alone, it burned another 19,700 tokens, worth about $1.59 million. Its protocol revenue over the past month ranks first among all protocols, about $63.94 million, with income continuously turning into buy orders.
But today there was also selling on-chain: a whale unlocked 387,000 HYPE tokens from staking, transferring them to Coinbase in three transactions totaling about $31.93 million; another whale bought about $10 million from Wintermute. Kraken's parent company Payward also plans to launch a regulated US perpetual product on Hyperliquid, pending approval. Both bulls and bears are increasing their stakes.
The contrast between hot and cold is obvious: the spot HYPE ETF has had no net inflows since October 6, and two days ago saw an outflow of $4.3 million. The protocol is aggressively repurchasing on-chain, but institutional funds remain cautious off-chain.
My judgment: HYPE's price depends half on revenue and burning, and half on expectations for ETFs and compliant products. Burning is a slow variable; selling pressure is a fast variable. The $31.93 million selling pressure doesn't shake the nearly 5% cumulative burn, but in the short term, watch if HYPE can reclaim $81.
$HYPE #HyperliquidThis quarter's earnings report "slightly exceeding expectations" is the baseline scenario, but the market won't just buy in because of a beat; what truly determines the rise or fall is whether the "price increase cycle can continue to be passed down and whether next quarter's guidance is strong enough.
The current stock price is around $1400 (closing at 1404.77 on 10/28), implying very high expectations and a low margin for error. Tonight's 8:30 PCE may determine how BTC will move over the next month or so. I've written the complete roadmap in a long article; here I'll just share the key points.
The Fed did not raise rates last night, but the vote was 10 to 2, with two members calling for a hike. The probability of a rate hike in December has risen from 36% to 78% in the past month. The PPI year-on-year has already reached 6.35%, and the expected PCE tonight is 3.6%. I believe there's a 60-70% chance it will be on the hot side.
If it's hot, my timeline is as follows: BTC will first return to around 78,000, with one last rally before the election, but it will be difficult to break above 83,000. The real drop will come after the November 3 election, initially targeting 67,000 to 70,000. November 16 to 20 is Anthropic's IPO week; BTC bottomed around the time of SpaceX's IPO this year, so this week is the first low point window.
If it's cold, with two consecutive weekly closes above 83,000, this scenario is invalidated, and the target shifts to 87,300 and 90,000.
I will watch three signals: tonight's PCE, the weekly close on November 2, and whether the 10-year US Treasury yield will surge to 5.3%.
The timing, price points, and conditions for each step are all detailed in today's long article. Friends who want to prepare in advance can take a look.
This is my personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. The London Metal Exchange is doing something no one has done before: turning the metals sitting in warehouses into on-chain collateral assets.
The approach is not tokenizing warehouse receipts, but tokenizing non-warehouse receipt metal inventories for corporate collateral financing, with an industry roundtable planned for early November. It aims to leverage Hong Kong's position—Hong Kong is a recognized delivery point in LME's global warehousing network, so the goods are here, and the on-chain certificates have physical backing. Meanwhile, the Hong Kong Exchange is also testing tokenized carbon credit settlements.
The key is not the technology, but the quality of the collateral. Previously, only coins could be used as on-chain collateral, which can fluctuate by double digits daily, making traditional banks reluctant to accept them. Metal inventories are different—they have spot prices, warehouses, and delivery rules, all recognized by banks for decades. Once this works, it will be the first time on-chain collateral is something traditional finance understands, forcing a recalculation of financing costs and cross-border flows.
This is the most direct incremental benefit for settlement layers like $ETH: more collateral means more on-chain capital demand. For oracles, it means a surge in price feed demand; for RWA, it signals an extension from government bonds to industrial goods.
Risks must also be clarified: this is still early exploration. Whether the November roundtable will produce results, how regulators will recognize the property rights corresponding to tokens, and who between warehouses and traders bears redemption responsibility—all remain unanswered. Tokenization does not equal liquidity; metals won’t necessarily become easier to sell just because they are on-chain.
But the direction is clear—it’s not just the crypto community playing around; exchanges are pushing real-world inventories onto the chain.Tonight at 20:30, Data Analyst Yue's subjective speculation
Tonight's data is highly likely to be lower than expected (i.e., very few unemployment claims, strong employment), expected to fall within the range of 188,000 to 191,000. The reason is that the actual layoff rate in US companies is extremely low, and labor demand remains stubborn, so the data may continue to decline.
If this speculation comes true, it will be a short-term negative for the crypto market. Overheated employment will dispel rate cut fantasies, and if combined with a hawkish signal from the FOMC at midnight, BTC is very likely to break below the 80,000 integer support level, triggering a cascade of long liquidations.
Absolutely do not bet on the data direction; this is merely a logical speculation, not a certainty. If there is a sharp drop after the data release, do not blindly catch the falling knife to buy the dip; if there is a false rally due to sentiment, it is actually a good opportunity to reduce positions and hedge. Wait for the information to settle before taking action; the more chaotic the market, the more you need to control your position size $BTC $ETH $ZEC #美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 In the early bull market phase, after BTC stands above the STH-RP and before reaching the stage high point in this cycle: the 2019 round almost did not see a pullback to the STH-MVRV mean line, 2023 only had one pullback, while this round has already completed two pullbacks.
Compared to the previous two rounds, the upward momentum in this bull market's initial phase is clearly weaker. It is worth considering: as the upward strength slows, will the subsequent correction depth also converge?
Still maintaining the previous core judgments:
1. The underlying structure in the early bull market has not changed. Whether from the on-chain indicator dimension or the K-line pattern on the chart, the current market positioning still belongs to the early bull phase.
2. The current 365D SMA is about 77.4K. Reviewing history, after bear markets turn to bull markets, except for the extreme black swan event caused by the 2020 pandemic, prices rarely sustain effective drops below this moving average during the early bull phase.
3. The STH-RP value is about 75.7K. To put it another way, even if the market weakens extremely and prices fall back to the 77.4K–75.7K range, this is more of a rare opportunity to position rather than a reason to panic. Personally, I judge the probability of touching this range as not high.
4. Today, the 128DMA just crossed above the 200DMA forming a golden cross. The key focus going forward is whether this golden cross pattern can be maintained. $BTC $ETH #美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 Xinhua Finance
Also announced an underestimated reform: in 2027, there will be one meeting without an interest rate vote or policy statement, increasing to two meetings in 2028. The regular adjustable interest rate meeting window is reduced from 8 to 6 times.
Bitcoin's reaction is restrained: $81,172, up 0.46%, weekly still -3.72%. US 10-year Treasury yield at 5.0175%, US Dollar Index at 102.12, gold slightly pulled back.
So this is not "all bad news priced in," but a standard hawkish pause: no rate hike, but all rate hike options remain, and the number of times they must make a statement is reduced.
The real test is in four hours—tonight at 20:30, the US Q3 GDP preliminary and September PCE will be released simultaneously. September CPI has hit a five-month high, PPI a four-year high; if PCE is also hot, the December rate hike pricing will immediately shift from "possible" to "highly likely."
Key levels: resistance at 81,911–82,000 moving average wall, support at 80,000 and 79,500.
Discussion: reducing the number of rate meetings from 8 to 6—is it improving efficiency or reducing transparency?
I lean toward the latter. Reducing the number of "must answer" occasions means fewer windows for the market to force a stance—freedom for policymakers, less information for price setters. Volatility won't disappear, it will just concentrate more intensely into the remaining meetings.
Poll: For tonight's 20:30 PCE, what do you think—A. Hot, confirming December rate hike; B. Moderate, BTC surges to 82,000; C. As expected, continues sideways; D. Data doesn't matter, market no longer cares.
I choose A. Two dissenting votes already hint at internal direction; as long as data isn't cool, hawks have reason.
Not investment advice, risk on you. #MarketAnalysis $BTCMore likely to exceed expectations (relative to Wall Street consensus, especially revenue / Non-GAAP EPS)
This quarter corresponds to Sandisk (Nasdaq: **SNDK**) **FY2027 Q1** (approximately calendar July–September 2026), which has **not yet been released** as of now; expected after the US market close on **10/29**, with the conference call around **16:30 ET / Beijing 10/30 04:30**.
The company guidance is roughly revenue of **$10.3–10.8 billion**, Non-GAAP EPS of **$44–46**; street consensus is already close to or slightly above the upper end of the guidance. On the bullish side is the NAND/enterprise price increase cycle and the recent quarters' history of beating guidance; on the constraining side, "meeting guidance" may not easily surpass Street expectations, and the market will also focus on whether next quarter's guidance is strong enough.$BTC ETF inflows reached $424 million in three days, with net inflows in October returning to $111 million, but the market is not buying it, and the price still dropped 1.60% in 24 hours.
I'm watching the $79,775 level: it has been tested 6 times, held 5 times, broken 0 times, and once had no reaction. The price is falling while open interest rises by 2.2%, indicating shorts are adding positions; a break below $79,775 would increase downside risk.
The Fed rate decision and US PCE inflation data often cause market volatility around their release, so I only take this level as a reference and won't bet heavily.
Do you think $79,775 can still hold? #Председатель Федеральной резервной системы Уош заявил, что политика не повлияла на решение по ставкам Microsoft's performance exceeded expectations, but I'm more focused on SanDisk!
Microsoft's quarterly revenue was about $92.28 billion, with Azure cloud business growing 48% year-over-year, and next quarter's growth guidance reaching 49%–50%. This indicates that demand for AI and cloud computing remains strong.
Why is this good news for SanDisk?
AI data center expansion relies heavily on storage. If NAND demand and prices continue to improve, SanDisk stands to benefit.
But don't rush to chase the rally! **Good Microsoft results don't necessarily mean SanDisk will rise.** Tonight, the focus is on SanDisk's own revenue, gross margin, and next quarter's guidance.
If both results and guidance exceed expectations, the storage sector may continue to attract capital; if the good news has already been priced in, be cautious of a pullback after a spike.
My view: AI storage is worth watching, but ultimately, what determines the stock price is whether the performance can surpass market expectations and whether capital truly supports it.
#微软Q1营收增长，Azure增速至48%超预期 How to build a "risk-resistant asset supported by interest" with 50,000 yuan?
It is widely said online that the "CMB dividend supports critical illness insurance" idea is good, but there are practical shortcomings.
Original plan: Invest 50,000 yuan in CMB, use dividends to buy 100,000 yuan critical illness insurance.
Problem: Single stock risk concentration, 100,000 coverage cannot fully protect against major illness.
💡 Reconstruction:
1️⃣ Switch to index
Buy 50,000 yuan of CSI Dividend Low Volatility ETF, traded on the market,
commission 0.05% with a minimum of 5 yuan per transaction.
Current index dividend yield is about 4.6%, not 5%.
2️⃣ First recognize a pitfall
Most dividend ETFs do not distribute dividends.
The largest one, 512890,
has never paid a cash dividend historically.
To get cash, you must choose varieties that pay quarterly/annual dividends,
or sell about 4.5% of shares annually yourself.
3️⃣ How to allocate protection
2,300 yuan for one million medical insurance + term critical illness insurance.
One million medical insurance is reimbursement-based, actual reimbursement, with 10,000 yuan deductible;
critical illness insurance is payout-based, pays upon diagnosis.
At age 30, you can get one million medical insurance + 300,000 to 400,000 critical illness coverage,
not "one million critical illness".
4️⃣ Building position rhythm
50% base position + staggered over 3 to 5 months, this step is fine.
A truth: Dividend low volatility does not mean no decline.
In 2015, drawdown was -43.8%, in 2018, -30.5%.
When a 50,000 yuan investment is floating a 20,000 yuan loss, only if you are still willing to use dividends to buy insurance,
then this plan passes.
What do you think about the combination of dividend low volatility + consumer insurance?👇
#Finance #DividendLowVolatility #AssetAllocation #PassiveIncomeAt this stage, I would define it as quietly accumulating during a hesitation period—not chasing the rally, nor panic selling. Guess what the quietest type of buyers have been doing recently? When I was reviewing on-chain data yesterday, I was a bit struck: over at BitMine, Tom Lee's team quietly added 10,452 ETH last week, bringing their holdings to 6,051,933 ETH as of October 25. Valued at $2,356 each, the ETH alone is worth about $14.3 billion, and combined with other assets, the total is close to $15 billion. This scale is not the work of short-term traders; it looks more like exchanging time for space. But the interesting part is not the numbers themselves, but the split in market sentiment. ETH is currently being pulled by two forces: on one side, a small FOMO flame wondering "Has it already reversed?" and on the other, hesitation saying "The macro environment hasn't settled yet, let's wait a bit longer." Large addresses keep buying during the downtrend, essentially voting for the bottom area, but this voting is slow and quiet, and won't immediately show on the candlestick charts. So, in the short term, the price is very likely to continue oscillating rather than surging all at once. My own understanding is that capital preference is quietly shifting toward "certainty chips"—willing to make medium- to long-term layouts on mainstream assets like ETH, rather than chasing altcoins whose narratives have already grown tired. This indirectly supports BTC, reinforces the bottom for ETH, but for high-beta small coins, it actually means a withdrawal: when smart money chooses to holdThe FOMC results early this morning have settled. It looks like no rate hike, but there are hawkish signals hidden inside, which isn't good news for our crypto circle.
The interest rate remains unchanged at 3.75%-4.00%, with a 10 to 2 vote; two members advocated for another 25 basis points hike.
Another key point is that they changed the economic assessment from solid to strong, while also saying inflation is still high.
In plain terms, the economy is very hot, inflation can't be suppressed, so don't expect a rate cut anytime soon.
Don't think that no rate hike means easing. For coins like Bitcoin and Ethereum, it's not just about interest rates, but also about the dollar, US Treasury yields, and whether funds dare to take risks.
If inflation remains stubbornly high, the market will start to expect high rates to last a long time, even betting on a rate hike in December; only if the economy cools down will the market have a chance to ease, and right now the probability of bad news is higher.
The decline isn't over yet. Chen Cheng has been signaling short positions all along: Bitcoin at 79,000, Ethereum at 2,280, and has said many times if those levels don't hold. So far, the view remains the same.
Any rebound later is our opportunity to short.
Brothers, are you ready?
$BTC $ETH This market looks a lot like summer 2023.
In 2023, $BTC first big move off the bottom ran into a meme and altcoin frenzy. Volatility then sank. This year has followed the same order, with volatility now at the lows.
More on these parallels in this week's Week On-chain.Thursday, October 29, 2026, Q4, Issue 111
Aspirin Data Scientist's Perspective on Cycle Analysis
The September PCE, to be released tonight at 8:30, is a critical turning point for the market over the next month or so. My judgment is that the data is more likely to be hot; if so, BTC will first drop for a while, then bounce once before the election, and after the election, face the last drop of Q4, with the low point roughly between mid-November and December 10. If the data is cold, this bearish scenario might be invalid.
01 Where the scenario stands
On October 26, BTC's second weekly candle closed below 83,000, confirming that this breakout was basically a false breakout. Last night, the Federal Reserve held steady, but its stance was more hawkish than the market expected. The vote was 10 to 2, with two members directly advocating a rate hike. The probability of a rate hike in December rose from 36% to about 78% within a month.
Next, all eyes are on tonight's PCE. The market expects 3.6%, last month was 3.4%. The PPI year-on-year has already jumped to 6.35%, so I believe the probability of hot data is about 60-70%.
On the market, BTC surged to 81,700 after the rate decision but was pushed back, now hovering around 79,800. ETH is weaker, having already broken the 2,328 support.
02 If PCE is hot
Once the data is out, long-term interest rates will likely rise first. BTC will probably return to around 78,000, which is the 100-day moving average. ETH may break below 2,283 and see levels around 2,200.
On the afternoon of October 30, there is a large-scale options expiration, whichThe strong performance of $SKHYNIX and the pullback in the crypto market essentially represent the same money choosing between two types of assets.
1. AI hardware is siphoning incremental venture capital
SK Hynix's earnings call conveyed a clear signal: AI storage demand is structural and long-term, with a supply shortage expected to continue until 2030. This certainty attracts a large amount of capital to stay in or flow into the AI hardware sector. Some analyses directly point out that the capacity expansion of Korean AI chips is competing with the crypto market for the same pool of venture capital. The AI capital cycle continuously absorbs incremental funds, causing the crypto market to lack the fuel for a rally. Even miners are shifting computing power to AI hosting because contract returns are more stable.
2. The correlation between SK Hynix and the crypto market has "broken"
A key data point is that the 20-week rolling correlation coefficient between BTC and the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) has turned negative (-0.41). This means that the movement of chip stocks no longer drives the crypto market; when SK Hynix rises, funds do not necessarily flow back into crypto. However, the capital occupied by SK Hynix and other AI assets may marginally drain the already limited liquidity in the crypto market. Market participants like Tom Lee have also observed de-risking in the US, South Korea, and Taiwan regions The FOMC has concluded, but today's most noteworthy point isn't the "status quo."
The Federal Reserve voted 10 to 2 to maintain the interest rate at 3.75%-4.00%, as expected. However, the two dissenting votes both advocated for a 25 basis point hike. On the surface, it looks like the doves held steady, but the details reveal a growing rift among the hawks—after the meeting, Chair Powell only said "it depends on the data," without giving any directional commitment.
The market reaction is quite interesting: BTC hovered around 81,000, with a 24-hour high-low range of only about $1,400, indicating a contraction in volatility. On the ETF front, support is holding; BTC spot ETFs saw inflows of approximately $424 million over three days, and net inflows in October have turned positive again. However, SOL spot ETFs have experienced outflows for two consecutive weeks, about $50 million, with SOL's year-to-date decline nearing 20%.
There is a narrative and price divergence worth noting here: Solana is shifting from a Meme narrative to stablecoins and tokenized assets, with JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, and Visa already conducting on-chain business. Yet, SOL's price and ETF capital have not kept pace, and the share of perpetual contracts on-chain has dropped from 17% to 6%.
My assessment: The FOMC gave no clear direction, but the hawkish rift, ETF divergence, and narrative-price disconnect all point to the same thing—the market is not waiting for direction but is repricing risk premiums. Positioning matters more than views; BTC's 80,000 level and SOL's narrative realization pace are the two anchors to watch going forward. $BTC's support on this chart is very weak; even the old OG holders who don't move are quietly offloading their coins.
Recently, long-term holders have sold over 50,000 coins, and the selling pressure is nearly 13 times that of the ETF buying volume. Even the largest institution that was blindly buying before has only added a few hundred this week; their focus has now shifted to managing their preferred stock debt.
Once the big buyers pause, the derivatives market immediately reveals its true nature.
The 5-minute perpetual contract sell orders have completely overwhelmed the buy orders, pushing the basis into deep negative territory. Large holders are frantically cashing out for USDT, and shorts are smelling the opportunity to dump the price. At this level, the bulls are stubbornly holding on with their heads down.
#BTC
$BTC
👇$ZIL: A 2.6% Bounce Despite Major Security Concerns?
$ZIL trades near $0.001995 after bridge and proxy contracts were reportedly compromised and the CEO resigned. Surprisingly, it still rose 2.6%.
But volume is only around 40% of normal, suggesting weak liquidity. This bounce may reflect limited selling rather than strong buying demand. With thin trading, even small orders can move prices sharply.
A green candle doesn't always mean confidence. $ZIL remains a high-risk?
#FedKeepsRatesUnchangedPalantir's Q2 revenue growth of 93% year on year, alongside 149% growth in US commercial revenue, explains why expectations have risen so sharply. The Q3 test is whether orders validate that momentum beyond a single strong quarter. Raised guidance helps the case, but elevated valuation leaves little room for uneven execution.
#PalantirQ3Valuation $AAVE, does an unchanged policy rate mean easing for on-chain lending? The Fed keeps the target range at 3.75%–4%, but inflation remains high, and market funding costs have not significantly decreased. Lending protocol revenue depends on borrowing demand, utilization, and bad debt risk; an unchanged interest rate does not automatically lead to expansion. If deposits and loans grow simultaneously and liquidations remain orderly, revenue quality is more stable; if volatility increases bad debt, I will downgrade the resilience assessment.On October 28, the FOMC maintained the interest rate at 3.75%–4.0%, as expected, but the vote was 10:2, with two voters (Cook and Harker) explicitly opposing and advocating a 25 basis point hike. The statement described the economy as "expanding at a strong pace" and inflation as "still elevated." The overall tone of the Fed Chair's press conference was hawkish, stating "we have clearly indicated we are ready to act." The Federal Reserve has not closed the door on further tightening, and the macro pressure on risk assets remains.
Around 2,310 is an "observable zone" supported by on-chain costs, but not a "safe buy zone." Prices show resilience here, but among the three suppressing factors—ETF outflows, relatively low active selling ratio, and hawkish FOMC—at least one (ETF flows) needs a substantial reversal to confirm adding positions. The more reasonable approach currently is: if participating, only lightly probe at 2,250–2,310 when the decline stops, with a strict stop loss below 2,239; if waiting for the right side, watch the recovery around 2,370–2,400 and the shift in ETHA capital flows. While institutions are still net reducing holdings, the risk-reward ratio for heavy bottom-fishing is not favorable.#$BTC dropped to 80,000 at 09:49, and the Hyperliquid 40x position I wrote about yesterday was liquidated again. This time it was a long position: 33.71 BTC were liquidated exactly at 80,000, resulting in a loss of about 47,000 USD. Yesterday at 16:35, its short position of 77.69 BTC was liquidated at 81,700. In less than 18 hours, both long and short sides took a hit. In between, it actually made a profit once: at 2 AM, it flipped long with 303.57 BTC at 80,789, and closed at 81,287 around 4 AM,Results settled, none of the three coins rushed to move
$BTC 80,647, staying put as expected, 80000 not broken 📊
At 2 AM, the Federal Reserve maintained the rate at 3.75%-4%, with 10 votes in favor and 2 against. Waller downplayed forward guidance, leaving the December rate hike uncertain. At the 80647 level, the market waited a week just for this moment, but there were no surprises and the price didn’t move. Support below 80000 remains, but no one is willing to chase upwards.
$ENA 0.19824, interest-bearing coins are waiting for high rates 🌾
Ethena’s USDe collateralized short-term U.S. Treasury yields are linked to the dollar interest rate. With the FOMC holding steady, the duration of high rates extends, increasing the appeal of interest-bearing stablecoins. At 0.198, the 8% gain from two days ago has been fully given back, now just waiting for the next direction.
$SOL 101.27, holding the 100 mark but no on-chain volume 🚀
Solana dropped from 105 and has been sideways at 100 for a week. The new consensus is truly up, but on-chain transactions haven’t exploded. If 100 doesn’t break, it’s consolidation; a real rise requires on-chain activity to return, which is still early. Risk appetite hasn’t changed significantly after the FOMC.
#美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温
This article is for market analysis only and does not constitute investment advice.