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$AMZN While consensus revenue of $202.2 billion implies a strong 12.2% YoY growth, the estimated EPS of $1.96 represents an increase of just 0.5% compared to Q3 2025 ($1.95), leaving a huge window for an unexpected margin beat or compression.
#AmazonQ3AWSOutlook The heavy bombshell hanging over the US stock market this week: the Federal Reserve interest rate decision + Powell's press conference, GDP, and core PCE inflation data.
The market is now most looking forward to a rate cut #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议
The 2:00 AM rate decision + 2:30 AM press conference:
The rate itself is unlikely to change much this time; the focus is on what Powell says. If he signals that inflation is easing and there is room for rate cuts later, growth stocks like the Nasdaq and storage will be directly lifted by capital; if he continues to speak tough, saying inflation is still volatile and rate cuts will be delayed, high-valuation stocks like $SOXL and $SNDK will immediately come under pressure and sell off.
The 8:30 PM GDP and core PCE:
GDP reflects the economy's heat; if GDP is too strong, the market will interpret it as the economy holding up well, so there is no rush to cut rates;
Core PCE is the Fed's most important inflation indicator! If PCE rises, rate cut expectations cool down immediately, and the US tech sector is prone to plunge; if PCE is 0.2% lower than the previous value, rate cut expectations heat up, giving growth stocks upward momentum.
SK Hynix's earnings report just came out; storage was originally in a tug-of-war for reversal, but whether it can have a big rally depends on the Federal Reserve.
Earnings are the sector's own fundamentals, while the rate decision and inflation data are the macro gatekeepers for the entire market.
Even if SK Hynix's earnings are good, as long as Powell's speech is hawkish, the rebound can easily be interrupted; conversely, as long as this round of inflation data weakens and the Fed signals dovishness, US stocks, semiconductors, and risk assets like BTC will see a resonant rally.In the futures market, even if it's called copper, different grades and delivery locations cannot be mixed for accounting. When I look at computing power contracts, I usually first check the "Delivery Specification" before discussing how large the market can be.
Arthur Hayes proposed in "The Trifecta" to establish a computing power trading market for AI agents through the Flop Network, paid with $FLOP, and to develop forward, futures, and perpetual contracts based on the spot price of computing power. This is a concept and should not be considered as already implemented.
I think this matter is more important for hedging value between computing power supply and demand than for stimulating speculative sentiment. But computing power is not a standard commodity; hardware and task compatibility affect actual output. If the contract does not match the actual rental cost, hedging could instead leave exposure. This is my speculation; the key lies in the contract details. Are there any friends who have also transitioned from traditional markets? What specifications do you think should be clearly written for computing power delivery?Is Dogecoin $DOGE worth holding long-term in this bull market???
I've always thought that the cryptocurrencies truly worth holding long-term should include both BTC and DOGE.
BTC is more like digital gold, with its core value being scarcity and store of value. But from the perspective of Satoshi Nakamoto's original concept of peer-to-peer electronic cash, DOGE aligns more closely with that direction.
Many people attack DOGE for its unlimited issuance, but they overlook a key point: a fixed issuance of about 5 billion coins per year does not mean the inflation rate remains constant forever. As the total circulating supply grows, the same amount of new issuance represents a decreasing proportion. Currently, the annual inflation rate is about 3%, and it will continue to decrease in the future.
Currency doesn't necessarily have to be absolutely deflationary. DOGE's design leans more towards circulation and payment, rather than having everyone lock up coins as scarce assets for hoarding.
DOGE itself is an independent PoW public chain, requiring miners to invest computing power and electricity to maintain the network. Its underlying mechanism is different from tokens issued directly on existing public chains. As BTC becomes increasingly financialized and more focused on value storage, it has indeed drifted from the original electronic cash vision. Coupled with the long-standing community disputes over its direction, it makes one wonder: is BTC's development path today still what Satoshi Nakamoto originally envisioned? #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 October FOMC in one sentence: The baseline scenario is a “hawkish pause” — no rate hike, but absolutely no rate cut, with focus on whether to leave the door open for a December hike
This ties in with your earlier look at SK Hynix HBM memory chips: AI high-growth sectors (HBM, computing chips) are very sensitive to long-term US Treasury yields, and this FOMC is a major macro variable before SKHY earnings
Time: Beijing time, October 29 at 2:00 AM decision, 2:30 AM Powell press conference; ⚠️ This meeting will not update the dot plot or SEP economic forecasts, so information is concentrated in the statement wording + press conference Q&A
1. Current market consensus (CME FedWatch)
- Probability of holding rates steady in October (3.75%-4.00%) is about 90%, with only about 10% chance of a 25bp hike, and almost no pricing for a rate cut
- The real market game is whether there will be another 25bp hike in December; futures price the probability of a December hike close to 70%
- Background: a hike was just made in September; inflation stickiness + rising oil prices are hawkish reasons; weaker nonfarm payrolls and tech credit disruptions are reasons to pause consecutive hikes
2. Three scenario simulations (corresponding to the market, including storage stocks like SK Hynix)
✅ Scenario 1: Neutral baseline (highest probability) — pause rate hikes, keep wording that “further tightening may still be possible”
Powell’s stance: no commitment to a December hike, nor closing the door on hikes, continuing data dependence. ETH is currently priced at about $2305, down 1.37% in 24 hours. 2300 is the last integer support line for now, with the intraday low already touching near that level. More importantly, the Ethereum ETF saw a net outflow of 6960 ETH in a single day, with a cumulative outflow of 85,801 ETH over seven days, valued at nearly $200 million. On-chain, there are still ancient whales moving; addresses from the 2015 ICO batch transferred another 3000 ETH to exchanges in the past 24 hours. The price is holding above 2300, but selling pressure is coming simultaneously from both the ETF and the whales. SOL is currently priced at about $100.35, down 1.22% in 24 hours. The 100 level has previously been briefly breached intraday but recovered; this time is different: on-chain data shows three wallets suspected to belong to the same whale moved 482,228 SOL in the past three days, worth about $49.17 million, of which 171,430 SOL have already been deposited to exchanges. These are not just orders placed—they are already on the shelf. SOL's liquidation data is also interesting: of the $6.55 million liquidated in 24 hours, 79% were long positions. The bulls are being pushed out, not entering actively. XRP is currently priced around $1.29 to $1.30, showing a slight increase in 24 hours. But looking at the liquidation data separately: 87% of XRP's 24-hour liquidations are long positions. This means those betting on a rise are being liquidated, and the price is barely holding, relying not on new$UNI Arthur Hayes just sold off all his UNI holdings, but the market barely reacted.
With such a huge institutional sell pressure, the price only dipped less than 1% in a single day. The 6.8 support level was tested several times but never broke; the market is very resilient. Honest signals lie in the pairing of the drop and volume; even with this scale of negative news, the price didn't break down, clearly showing big money is quietly and steadily buying at the bottom.
The chips have been cleaned so thoroughly that even a blatant dump can't break it. Next, just a little emotional spark could send it soaring.
#UNI$ONE is tightly controlled, continuously hitting new lows.#Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ Inflows look good, trading is coolTrump's approval rating is 32%, and the Democrats lead by 11 percentage points in the generic congressional ballot.
The numbers themselves are not fatal. What is fatal is that the Democrats have already sharpened their knives in advance.
Crypto companies associated with the Trump family—WLFI, 1789 Capital, Polymarket, Kalshi, plus Zhao Changpeng—are all preemptively hiring lawyers and lobbyists, some specifically connected to the Democratic Party.
When have you ever seen a "legal and compliant" industry collectively hire lawyers before an election?
Let's start with the $500 million for WLFI.
On January 17, 2025, four days before Trump's inauguration, Aryam Investment, owned by Sheikh Tahnoon of the Abu Dhabi royal family, signed an agreement to acquire 49% of WLFI for $500 million. Of the initial payment, $187 million went directly to Trump family entities.
Who is Tahnoon? The UAE National Security Advisor, managing assets over $1.3 trillion, nicknamed the "Spy Prince"—he has been pushing the U.S. to approve the export of tightly controlled AI chips.
A person who needs U.S. government approval to export chips gave nearly $200 million to the president's family project four days before the inauguration. The Democrats have singled out this deal as the core of their investigation.
Now about CZ's pardon.
Seven Democratic senators have already sent a letter to the Department of Justice demanding an explanation for why Trump pardoned CZ. The letter states: this pardon sends a signal to the crypto industry that "you can commit crimes with impunity."
CZ has admitted to violating the U.S. Bank Secrecy Act. Binance also helped develop stablecoins for a company partially owned by the president.
The Democrats' logic is straightforward: you pardoned a person who pleaded guilty, and his company has business dealings with your family.
But what the market really overlooks is WLFI's own data.
The governance token WLFI fell from $0.45 in August 2025 to $0.05 in June 2026, a drop of 88%. On October 20, WLFI dropped nearly 6% again, closing at $0.0538.
On the same day, WLFI's issued stablecoin USD1 saw $401 million redeemed within two weeks, including $200 million from an unidentified wallet, transferred out in batches of $300,000 to $500,000.
The stock price drop can be explained as "market volatility." But an unidentified large holder withdrawing $200 million in two weeks cannot be explained.
Bloomberg itself admits there are obstacles to the investigation: foreign evidence is inaccessible, and the DOJ may not cooperate.
But the impact of the investigation never requires a "conviction."
A subpoena, a hearing, a media leak—these are enough to overturn the valuation models of WLFI and BNB. The market fears not the "outcome" but the "process"—and this process will last for months, with every tug-of-war amplifying emotions.
The Democrats do not need a new law to crack down on crypto.
A subpoena and a hearing are enough to rewrite the valuation models of WLFI and BNB.
$BTC $WLFI $BNB Arthur Hayes proposed in "The Trifecta" to establish a computing power trading market for AI agents through the Flop Network, using FLOP tokens for payment, and to develop forwards, futures, and perpetual contracts based on spot computing power prices. He also pointed out that there is currently no unified global benchmark for computing power pricing.
I think this is an important infrastructure concept, but the short-term bullish sentiment may be overestimated. Without a unified benchmark, spot prices are hard to stabilize; when spot liquidity is insufficient, derivatives will amplify both volatility and pricing deviations, which affects ordinary users the most.
📌 Here's a leverage tip for newcomers: assuming the computing power price is 100 and you go 10x long, ignoring maintenance margin, a price drop of about 10% approaches liquidation. If the quoted price itself is not transparent, the liquidation point becomes even harder to determine. Next, I will focus on whether spot computing power can form a reliable price, then look at derivatives.How much has the prediction market actually grown this year? Someone dug up a set of data: from January 1 to October 25, the cumulative number of transactions on a certain prediction platform surged from 241,600 to 80,584,900, a 334-fold increase. It multiplied more than three hundred times.
This growth rate is not driven by a single coin pump, but by the repeated emergence of demand itself. After the 5-minute BTC price fluctuations end, there are still 15-minute US stock market ups and downs; after a Dota match, there’s LOL, and after LOL, there’s the next World Championship; football happens every week, and beyond football, there’s NBA, football, weather, interest rate cuts, earnings reports, gold, and crude oil. There are 365 days in a year, and almost every day there are new topics to bet on.
What’s more crucial is the threshold. Opening a contract requires understanding margin, liquidation, and funding rates; the prediction market only requires judging right or wrong, a binary outcome—if you win, you win. If you talk to someone who has played LOL for ten years about chains, wallets, and airdrops, they’ll lose focus in three sentences; but if you ask them who will win the championship this year, they can talk with you all night.
This might be the real entry point for the prediction market: not educating traders better, but directly turning ordinary people’s interests into liquidity.
The risks are also obvious. Odds are determined by the pool; unpopular markets have very thin depth, and a single large order can cause price slippage; settlement rules, oracle disputes, and regulatory standards are all variables. Good-looking data doesn’t mean every market can make money.
But the track direction has already emerged. From 241,000 transactions to 80 million, this is not a prediction, it’s something that has already happened.A trader's lament over a 10x leveraged $DOOD short and a $2,500 loss captures something more useful than a single bad trade: the mechanics of a crowded short into a market that refuses to cooperate. Negative funding rates, the detail buried in the complaint, are the tell. When shorts outnumber longs heavily enough that they pay to hold positions, the market is leaning one way, and the cost of staying there compounds daily. The $ETH position tells the same story in slower motion. Two short entrieA banking license can't buy a single price surge: What to really watch after Ripple gets final OCC approval
On October 26, 2026, the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) gave final approval to Ripple National Trust Bank, allowing it to manage RLUSD reserve assets and serve as collateral custodian. This marks the first time a crypto company has truly obtained federal-level banking entity status, with industry significance outweighing price impact. This article breaks down the four layers of transmission and three points of attenuation from "license" to "token price" in this news, combined with the current BTC oscillation between $80,000 and $87,000 and the market environment where "Uptober" has failed for the second consecutive year. It provides a verifiable observation checklist for the next 1–4 quarters and three scenario simulations to help turn a "positive" into a trackable and falsifiable basis for judgment. #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ $XRP #Meta启动350亿美元融资，支持AI基建
Meta officially launches a $35 billion equity financing round, with all funds directed towards AI computing power, data centers, and other infrastructure. Chip manufacturers like Nvidia and AMD also plan to participate in the subscription. On the surface, this signals continued investment in the AI sector, but the market has two completely different interpretations.
Positive perspective: The AI arms race shows no signs of stopping. Massive capital expenditures will continue to drive demand for HBM and GPUs, sustaining the semiconductor industry's prosperity, boosting overall risk appetite, and indirectly benefiting crypto assets.
However, the risks are more concerning: Choosing equity issuance for financing indicates that AI's cash burn far exceeds its own cash flow capacity. Large-scale equity issuance will cause dilution, and the enormous financing volume will siphon funds from the market. If AI monetization falls short of expectations later, high-tech stocks at elevated levels are prone to concentrated corrections.
My view: Short-term sentiment is bullish, but avoid blindly chasing highs. High AI capital expenditure growth does not equal performance realization; the biggest risk in this cycle is that returns on computing power investments may fall short of expectations.
Contract strategy: The news is positive but should only be used as a sentiment reference; do not heavily chase the upside. Focus on observing the sustainability of the Nasdaq and chip sectors; if rallies weaken, consider light short positions. Only if funds continue flowing into the AI sector should you consider trend-following long positions, with strict stop-losses throughout.📉 Downward: First test 79,377.7, 79,000 will hold before the meeting.
79,220 is short by 158, 81,070 short by 220, 79,377.7 short by 344, the invalidation line hasn't been touched once.
No one got liquidated: trading volume up 56.37%, liquidations only up 6.29%, open interest 1.17%.
Money is rotating. After showing off 7346% profit, Xuan reduced position to a few thousand dollars, short positions also ready to close.
Veterans are reducing, retail long-short ratio is 69% long (Dr. Bi Kevin's post). Price is stuck.
Perpetual premium -0.0349% discount, but the rate is stuck at 0.01000% benchmark, for two periods.
Discount still at the top, indicating the rate is supported by the benchmark interest rate, not by longs competing.
Today's range is 832 dollars, narrowest in four days, upper bound 80,849.9 is the ceiling.
If 1H close stands above 81,200 or falls below 79,000, consider me wrong, until 10-29 02:00.
Contrary evidence: 10-26 21:00 that 718.5 contracts, previous six bars averaged 130.
It hit 79,455.8 and was bought back, someone is defending the lower bound, not trying to push up.
Before the meeting no one cares about rise or fall, only who pays the rent. Personal review, not advice.
Do you think it will break the lower bound first, or start the meeting directly?
$BTC #OctoberFOMCRateDecisionToBeAnnouncedThisWeekBTC near 80,300, ETH near 2,310. Over the weekend, BTC dipped to 79,278 before rebounding but encountered resistance above 80,500.
Spot buying is weak. Stablecoin reserves dropped to $60.6 billion, a one-year low; Coinbase premium turned negative, indicating a lack of incremental funds. Buy orders near 79,000 are mostly futures orders rather than spot support.
Liquidations continue to favor the bulls. In 24 hours, total network liquidations reached 175 million, with long positions accounting for 106 million. BTC long liquidations were 30.04 million, ETH long liquidations 23.31 million, bulls are still bleeding.
ETF divergence. BTC ETF weekly net inflow was 301 million, but a single-day outflow of 169 million; ETH had a single-day outflow of 16.07 million and a seven-day outflow of 198 million, funds still favor BTC.
Macro: Probability of FOMC holding rates steady is 90.6%, with a 67.5% chance of a rate hike in December. Daily RSI is about 40, approaching oversold, but the weekly trend remains bearish.
Key levels:
BTC support at 79,000-79,500 below, resistance at 80,500-81,000 above.
ETH defense at 2,290-2,300 below, pressure at 2,330-2,345 above.
In short: Spot buying is insufficient, bulls continue to take hits, and breakthroughs are unlikely before the FOMC. Do not chase shorts or bottom-fish; wait for BTC to stabilize at 79,000-79,500 or to break above 80,500 with volume before considering light long positions. Position control is paramount. $BTC and gold both dropped 7%! The so-called safe-haven myth was slapped down by the market this time?
The most counterintuitive scene of 2026 has appeared: Bitcoin and gold have surprisingly become among the worst-performing major assets!
According to the current data, $BTC has fallen 7.3% year-to-date, and gold has dropped 7.5%.
One is called digital gold, the other is regarded as a traditional safe-haven asset, yet both got hit together.
This at least sounds a warning bell for the market: don’t treat asset labels as a price guarantee.
Looking further at $BTC’s own capital flow.
On October 22 and 23, US spot BTC ETFs saw net outflows for two consecutive days, totaling about $773.5 million. The supply from long-term holders decreased by 50,017 coins, while ETF purchases were only about 3,700 coins.
Meanwhile, Strategy holds 848,517 BTC but paused additional purchases after two consecutive weeks of buying.
Putting these signals together, what the market really needs to be wary of is not how much it fell on a certain day, but whether new buying can keep up when selling pressure emerges.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ #中东原油运输恢复，油价为何仍居高位？ #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议
This week, the FOMC (October 27–28) is about 90% likely to hold rates steady, so the decision itself is basically a known factor.
The real variable is not whether to raise rates, but the wording of the statement and the press conference by Waller: inflation remains high, and the Federal Reserve must convince the market that the “pause in October” does not mean “tightening is over,” while maintaining the credibility of a rate hike window in December.
For risk assets, the decision is already priced in, but the tail risk of communication missteps is not fully priced.
If the market interprets the statement as “December might not move either,” the repricing of rate expectations will first impact U.S. Treasuries and the dollar, then transmit to tech stocks and crypto assets;
Conversely, if the December expectations are successfully maintained, the short term might actually see a “boot dropping” window.
The focus is on Waller’s words, not the rate numbers. The decision is a known factor; communication is the source of volatility. @OKX星球 @OKX 产品精选 $BTC #Can SanDisk's storage business sustain its high growth?
Old Mo straightforwardly says: The volume certainty is very strong, but the price elasticity is locked by long-term contracts.
Supporting the growth is the NBM long-term contract. Eight agreements lock in a guaranteed minimum revenue of $93.9 billion, covering more than half of the shipments through 2027, with an 80% gross margin guaranteed by a floor price. As long as AI inference demand for flash memory doesn't collapse, this base is basically stable.
But the cracks are here too. The long-term contracts lock both volume and price, so if the spot price continues to surge, SanDisk won't benefit from excess profits. Coupled with market concerns about the cycle peaking and sentiment pressure from players like Changxin, the stock price is unlikely to break out of a pure cyclical steep rise in the short term.
Old Mo summarizes: SanDisk is shifting from a "pure cyclical game" to "cash flow pricing." There is a solid safety cushion on the downside, but don't expect another crazy surge in the short term. At this position, patiently waiting for a pullback and stabilization is much safer than chasing highs.
What do you think about SanDisk's long-term contract model? Let's discuss in the comments. $BTC $ETH $SNDK #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ SK海力士Q3财报前瞻简析（配图话题：HBM4能不能提振盈利）
In short: The main profit driver in Q3 is still HBM3E; HBM4's contribution this quarter is limited, serving more as a growth engine for Q4 and next year; Q3 performance flexibility comes from general DRAM/NAND price increases plus fulfillment of existing HBM long-term contracts.
Market poll in the chart shows 83% betting Yes (earnings beat expectations), 18% betting No, reflecting a generally optimistic consensus among investors.
✅ Positive factors (supporting profits, likely to exceed expectations):
1. Traditional storage price increase benefits realized
TrendForce estimates Q3 DRAM contract prices up 13%~18% QoQ, NAND up 10%~15% QoQ; AI inference drives stronger eSSD demand, with ordinary server and PC storage prices rising simultaneously, representing confirmed revenue growth in Q3 without waiting for HBM4 volume ramp-up.
2. HBM3E remains a cash cow
HBM long-term contracts lock prices and volumes, with high unit prices and very high gross margins; SK Hynix still leads in HBM market share, and HBM3E continues stable shipments in Q3, forming the profit base.
3. HBM4 yield has met standards but is in early ramp-up
HBM4 began small-batch sample deliveries in Q2, with yields approaching the mature HBM3E level; Exchange wallet $BTC has recently surged by 70,000 coins. Are the spot whales about to dump?
Many people were scared by this chart showing a large inflow of BTC into exchanges recently.
In less than a month, over 70,000 BTC spot coins flowed in, coinciding with BTC fluctuating and declining above 80,000. Could a major correction really be starting?
Today, I saw more detailed data from other bloggers (Chart 2).
The light-colored area represents the cumulative inflow of BTC by retail investors into exchanges over the past 30 days.
The dark blue area shows the data of whale inflows of BTC into exchanges.
It’s clear that retail investors have been continuously depositing coins into exchanges this past month.
However, the amount of whale inflows is shrinking and decreasing.
In other words, this wave of large inflows into exchanges is mostly driven by retail investors, not whales.
Whales have not been transferring BTC from cold wallets to exchanges in bulk, preparing for spot selling.
Therefore, the main selling pressure causing the recent decline likely comes from retail investors transferring spot coins to sell + contract leverage stop-loss orders, not whales selling spot.
As long as this situation continues, it’s unlikely to see a spot crash with no support and a cliff-like plunge.
Thus, this ongoing BTC decline looks more like a new round of chip swapping, with retail investors taking profits and whales remaining restrained and accumulating.
But this only indicates that the risk of whales chain-selling spot coins is currently low, temporarily ruling out the worst-case scenario of a panic spot sell-off.
For the market to rebound, signals of reduced retail selling pressure and whales withdrawing coins to accumulate are still needed. On October 27, the $BTC 80,000 level was repeatedly contested. What's truly interesting is the position divergence:
The long position ratio across all market accounts is 69.5%, the long position ratio among large accounts is 70.5%, and the long position ratio held by large accounts is 66.0%!
But the smart money's long position ratio is only 21.7%, with a buy ratio of 49.3%!
To put it plainly: retail investors have a high long position ratio, but smart money is not following.
For long entry recommendations, place orders around 78,700. The liquidation intensity is nearly 900 million dollars. If you get a chance to catch it in the short term, there will be a rebound. #Anthropic officially files for IPO, potentially setting a new valuation record
"Anthropic IPO Valuation Breaks Records"
Anthropic has officially submitted its IPO application, aiming to break valuation records.
On the surface, the Claude model's usage is surging, with Amazon and Google each investing over ten billion dollars. However, behind closed doors, the costs of computing power, cutting-edge chips, and cloud cluster rentals are consuming huge amounts of cash every quarter. Subscription revenue alone at this stage is far from sufficient.
The management has chosen to rush to the public market primarily to replenish R&D resources. The most critical upcoming focus will be the quarterly gross profit and computing power expenses disclosed in the first public prospectus. $ANTHROPIC officially files for IPOBTC holds at 80,000, better not chase before the FOMC night.
OKX current price is about 80,006, 24h high 80,850, low 79,378, with a fluctuation of less than a thousand points.
This morning, the liquidation zone reported about $174 million liquidated across the network in 24h, with long positions accounting for about 60.7%.
Farside: US spot BTC ETF had a net outflow of about $636 million on 10/22, and another outflow of about $138 million on 10/23; the FOMC meeting is today and tomorrow.
I think this is a typical pre-meeting low-volume stalemate, not a breakout signal.
Institutions just had outflows, the price is grinding near 80,000, chasing hard has an average success rate.
What I will do: observe and not chase. Wait for a firm hold and recovery above 80,850; if it breaks below 79,300, this 80,000 defense is considered failed.
Are you more worried about a dump after the meeting, or will you wait for the low volume to end before making a move?
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#OctoberFOMCRateDecisionToBeAnnouncedThisWeek #MiddleEastOilTransportResumesWhyAreOilPricesStillHigh?Today's assessment: There are two developments worth noting today: tokenized US stocks now support X Layer deposits and withdrawals, and the prediction market has also secured more cooperation with traditional institutions. My judgment on the practical application of X Layer has become more optimistic, but currently, no new OKB staking demand has been confirmed. ETF data is also incomplete, so it's too early to conclude whether institutional buying has resumed. 1. ETF: Data is incomplete, so no judgment on capital inflow yet. As of October 26, spot ETF (Exchange-Traded Fund) data has not been fully collected; major funds like IBIT, FBTC, and ETHA are still missing data. Previously on the 23rd, BTC had a net outflow of $137.9 million, ETH saw a slight inflow; SOL data for that day was also incomplete. It is still insufficient to determine whether institutional buying of these three asset types has strengthened. 2. Tokenized US stocks are being opened in batches, with X Layer handling asset transfers. Starting October 26, the first batch of tokenized stocks such as xMARA, xMCD, and xMRK are entering the OKX spot market as planned, supporting deposits and withdrawals via X Layer. This brings concrete asset usage scenarios to X Layer. Spot matching is completed on OKX, while X Layer handles deposit, withdrawal, and on-chain transfer demands. This business progress is noteworthy, but it has not yet been confirmed that these spot trades must stake OKB or that trading fees will flow back to OKB. Exchange OS is still in public beta; no new announcements on external deployment or specific staking rules have been made, and the originally planned third-quarter deployment is still marked as "coming soon". The hottest coin today is $Q (Quack AI), ranked first in CoinGecko's hot search. As of 10:02 Beijing time, Q is priced at $0.1975, up 254% in 24h, with a trading volume of about $270 million and a market cap reaching approximately $930 million. It just hit a new all-time high of 0.2184 at 08:36 this morning.
This round of Q has been very volatile: after a surge in mid-October, it dropped 57% over six days until the 25th, then yesterday it quickly bounced back from around 0.057. So far, no new official positive news from the project team has been found; the narrative remains AI Agent payments (x402 gas-free signature payments).
My view: this kind of movement looks more like a battle between capital and contracts rather than a fundamental change. The trading volume is nearly 30% of the market cap, indicating very high turnover; about 241 million tokens will unlock on November 2. Rather than chasing the rally, it's better to understand the rhythm. I will focus on the support after pullbacks and the changes in holdings before and after the unlock.This week's tech stock earnings reports are a major test; the market is no longer focused on profits but mainly on future expenditures. ANT will be listed in 2 weeks. $BTC strong demand + strong absorption, the only drawback is not during the US market hours, but I think it's very, very good. I added to my position at 79600 📅 October 27, 2026 · On the eve of the Federal Reserve decision
🚨 The FOMC meeting opens today,
BTC is currently at $80,033, down 0.74% in 24 hours, ETH down 1.49%, SOL down 1.38%. In the past 24 hours, the total network liquidation reached $135 million, with long positions accounting for $91.74 million — leveraged longs are rushing to exit ahead of the Fed decision. Market expectations for a rate cut have been slashed to less than 10%, making a "no change" almost a sure bet; the real variable is every word from Waller at the press conference.
Strategy has paused BTC purchases for the first time in five weeks, with $772 million flowing out of US spot ETFs in two days. The two most stable marginal buyers have both stopped.
The 80,000 level was lost before the decision; the real direction will have to wait for the press conference early Thursday Beijing time. #Strategy财报前瞻：BTC账面收益大幅反弹 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ Order Book Strength Ranking
5-minute median slippage, estimated by order book
$IRYS large buy cost decreases, sell cost increases. Simulated slippage for 100k scale buy/sell changes from 1.70%/1.38% to 1.35%/1.55%. The rising side shows reduced volume, the falling side remains stable.
$DOOD large buy cost increases, small buy cost almost unchanged. Simulated 100k scale buy slippage rises from 1.12% to 1.33%. 10k buy remains about 0.16%. When cost worsens, adjust order size, not directional view.
$CAP slippage is higher for the same buy amount. Simulated 10k scale buy/sell slippage is 0.23%/0.16%, 100k is 1.28%/0.56%. Large orders on the expensive side need to be split.Last night, the OCC issued the final license to Ripple's National Trust Bank. This is not a commercial bank that can accept deposits and make loans, but a federally regulated trust bank: managing RLUSD reserves, acting as collateral trustee, and providing institutional digital asset custody. The official press release states that RLUSD has a market value of about $2.5 billion, and the issuance side is still managed by Standard Custody, regulated by the State of New York. CoinGecko spot XRP is about $1.30 (snapshot around 09:58 Beijing time).
It is more likely a compliance foundation being completed, not an immediate doubling of payment volume. The opposing view will focus on the trust bank not accepting deposits or making loans, and the license itself does not bring transaction fees. But once the federal custody shell is established, institutions will have one less regulatory identity question when purchasing.
Let's first observe the three weeks after opening: whether the custody client list publicly shows a few verifiable names. If the list is blank, or RLUSD's market value remains almost unchanged compared to before opening, then this is just a regulatory progress update, not a sign that funds have already entered on a large scale.
$XRP
#Ripple #TrustBank Bitcoin is currently stuck at 79,000, just one step away from 80,000, but that step just can't be crossed. Every time the price tries to push up, the trading volume doesn't keep up; the momentum to break through is clearly insufficient.
There's a detail on-chain: whales have been accumulating coins offline recently, not dumping them on exchanges, so selling pressure is indeed low. But the problem is that the existing chips are just being exchanged back and forth among insiders. No matter how much turnover there is, it can't push a breakthrough because no new money is coming in. An integer barrier like 80,000 can't be sustained by old money just passing coins around.
ETFs saw a net outflow of $630 million on Thursday alone, and during this week only BlackRock is still supporting net inflows—one player can't carry the whole load. This is the most direct signal from the demand side, indicating that incremental funds are on the sidelines.
Adding to that, the Federal Reserve is very likely to hold steady on interest rates, and no one wants to add positions before the decision is announced. With both macro and capital flows weak, I don't see 80,000 being reached in the short term.
If a real bullish turn is to happen, it's better to wait until the interest rate decision is out and ETFs resume net inflows. Chasing longs at this level isn't cost-effective.
The range between 79,000 and 80,000 will likely keep grinding back and forth for a while; this kind of low-volume sideways movement is very frustrating. If it breaks below 77,000 afterward, the downward momentum will accelerate—don't rush to bottom-fish.Bitcoin is repeatedly grinding around 79,000, unable to break through 80,000, and the volume for the breakout is thinning day by day.
On-chain whales are hoarding coins offline, not dumping them on exchanges, so selling pressure isn't significant. However, the existing turnover can't push out a breakthrough; what's missing is actual buying from new money entering the market.
ETFs saw a net outflow of 630 million USD on Thursday alone, with BlackRock being the only one supporting net inflows throughout the week.
Before the Fed's interest rate decision is finalized, 80,000 won't hold. If a real bullish reversal is to happen, wait until both of these signals change.After $BTC fell below $80,000, its rebound has struggled to hold — the real suspense is not about where the bottom is, but whether the market can still absorb the shock amid the triple macro variables converging this Wednesday. The Federal Reserve rate decision, US GDP, and PCE data will all be released intensively in the same week. This "policy + growth + inflation" triple-front window is rare, and the longer volatility is suppressed, the more intense its release will be. First, looking at $BTC itself: the current price is about $80,368, with short-term key support at $78,670, and a clear short liquidation zone near $85,000 above. This means that for the price to break upward, it must first clear this liquidity; but if the $80,000 integer level fails to hold, the path to retest $78,670 will become smoother. I tend to be cautious: not bearish, but acknowledging that neither bulls nor bears currently have enough chips to set the tone, and the gain or loss of $80,000 carries more information than any prediction. The weakness of $ETH is even more worrisome. The current price is about $2,337, with key resistance at $2,420 and notable support at $2,169 below. As a high-beta asset, $ETH did not rebound first when $BTC stabilized, indicating that funds have not truly returned to the front end of the risk curve, so bottom-fishing now is not cost-effective. $SOL is currently about $102, with $100 as a psychological defense line. Its logic is straightforward: if $BTC continuesSouth Korea is once again at a critical point regarding the taxation of crypto asset gains.
The current trend is that the Blue House is inclined to postpone the 22% crypto income tax for the fourth time. In other words, this tax, which was originally set to be implemented, will most likely be delayed further. At the same time, discussions are ongoing about whether exchanges should bear an additional educational tax burden.
There are two key points. First, the tax rate is not low—22% applies to individual gains from transferring crypto assets; once implemented, it will change local investors' holding and reporting habits. Second, this is already the fourth postponement, and the repeated delays themselves indicate significant resistance to implementation: regulators want to collect the tax but fear withdrawing liquidity during sensitive market periods.
For $BTC, the significance lies mainly in two aspects. South Korea is one of the most active retail trading markets globally, and the timing of the tax system will directly affect the flow of local funds. Delaying implementation removes a short-term forced selling reason; however, the policy's repeated wavering creates uncertainty, causing some funds to adopt a wait-and-see approach. Conversely, if the tax is eventually confirmed, concentrated liquidation before reporting must be guarded against.
The next things to watch are: when the final decision will be announced, whether the 22% tax rate will be adjusted, and whether the new burden on trading platforms will be passed on to user fees. Also, whether the local price premium in South Korea is abnormally amplified, as that usually signals the most direct sentiment of local funds. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ When I look at this message, the key point is not the "sell-off wave," but that unrealized gains might be treated differently. The Netherlands plans to vote in November: according to the current proposal, capital gains tax will be levied on stocks and other assets when sold starting in 2028, while cryptocurrencies, gold, and foreign exchange may still be taxed annually on unrealized gains at least until 2030. Industry organizations warn this could trigger sell-offs.
📌 Here's a concept breakdown for newcomers: unrealized gains are the paper profits from assets not yet sold. Taking 2028 as an example, if the proposal passes, stocks can be taxed upon sale, but crypto assets might be taxed even if not sold. Having profits on paper does not mean having cash on hand to pay taxes.
I think this is a potential negative: tax differences may affect asset choices, and annual tax payments also increase cash flow pressure. But beginners tend to interpret "possible sell-off" as "inevitable price drop." I will watch the voting results closely and not take industry warnings as direct market conclusions.Volatility may increase before the FOMC on October 28, and high leverage is very susceptible to being liquidated in the two-way squeeze. Currently, BTC shorts dominate but are not extreme, ETH longs have not been cleared but the order flow is turning short, a structural combination more likely to lead to consolidation before the FOMC rather than a one-sided breakout. This makes BTC's downside vulnerability relatively higher. Coupled with the approaching Federal Reserve FOMC on October 28, the risk-reward ratio for directional one-sided bets is not favorable. The crypto market is under transmission pressure from cross-asset sell-offs. The US September CPI rose to 3.7%, Brent crude oil broke through $115, fueling reflation concerns, combined with a pullback in the US stock AI sector, overall risk appetite is contracting. Uncertainty in the interest rate path will continue to suppress the valuation recovery space for risk assets.
BTC: 80000 has shifted from support to a "meat grinder" of repeated battles between bulls and bears. Against the backdrop of four consecutive daily declines and three consecutive weekly declines, the gain or loss of this level will determine the short-term direction. The seven-stage adjustment on the 4-hour level has been completed, with clear divergence between the exit and entry phases, indicating that the technical conditions for the end of the adjustment are accumulating but not yet confirmed—the confirmation signal is a structural reversal after a retest without breaking the previous low. On the daily level, BTC has been in a descending channel since the high of 87385 on September 21. It is still locked in a tug-of-war around 80000. Bulls have not been squeezed to an extreme, and the fuel for shorts to continue forcing down is also limited. This "shorts dominate but not extreme" structure supports the judgment of oscillating bottoming rather than a one-sided continued decline.
Support: 79500-80000, 78600-79300
Resistance: 80500-81000, 81350, 82000
ETH: RSI is near oversold, the risk-reward ratio for chasing shorts at the current position is not ideal, but oversold itself is not a reason to go long; structural signals need to be awaited. Since the early October high around 2800, ETH has been in a descending channel with both highs and lows continuously moving down. The daily chart has broken below the lower boundary of the ascending channel formed since the June low, meaning the previously supportive rebound structure has been substantially damaged. On the 4-hour level, after being blocked in the 2470–2500 supply zone, ETH fell again, with the short structure resonating across multiple time frames. The MACD histogram is negative, short momentum continues without signs of a reversal crossover; the 12-hour chart has maintained five candles with upper and lower shadows, unable to rebound or break down to accelerate. This balance may be broken around the meeting on the 28th. Compared to BTC, ETH still has many longs that have not surrendered internally; against the backdrop of continued price weakness, these positions constitute potential "downside catalysts"—each rebound may become an opportunity for longs to reduce positions and exit.
Support: 2280-2300, 2250-2270
Resistance: 2340-2360, 2374, 2400$UNI This trade was mentioned before, Target 1 reached 😎
Yesterday (10-26) at 18:00 I wrote the plan: The 7.00 line was tested five or six times before breaking through with volume, turning resistance into support, so wait for a pullback to 6.99–7.02 to go long, stop loss at 6.88, Target 1 at 7.20, Target 2 at 7.30.
Actual movement:
Around 18:15 it pulled back into the entry zone, then consolidated all night. After 21:00 the lowest dropped to 6.928, still 0.05 above stop loss. Honestly, it was a bit uncomfortable then, but the structure held, it didn’t fall back below the breakout candle.
At 08:30 this morning it directly surged up, reaching a high of 7.208, Target 1 at 7.20 achieved.
Based on the entry midpoint 7.005, reaching Target 1 is +2.8%. Target 2 at 7.30 hasn’t been reached yet, currently around 7.12, half of the position’s stop loss has been raised to cost as planned, holding without worry.
The key to this trade is one sentence: after the breakout, the pullback not breaking support confirms it. Those few hours in between really tested patience.
What do you think about UNI possibly reaching 7.30 next?
Past performance does not indicate future results, DYOR
#UNI #ContractReview #DeFiI'm pretty sure that Google will beat its quarterly earnings, it projects toward that based on the data.In the futures market, it's not uncommon to be forced to reduce positions due to insufficient margin despite being profitable on paper. When I see this news from the Netherlands, my first thought is about cash flow rather than market direction.
The Netherlands plans to vote in November: under the current proposal, stocks, bonds, and options would be subject to capital gains tax upon sale starting in 2028, while cryptocurrencies, gold, and foreign exchange might still be taxed annually on unrealized gains at least until 2030. Industry groups warn this could trigger sell-offs.
I judge this to be somewhat negative for local holders, but it's too early to push this into a global sell-off wave. If implemented, paper gains could bring cash tax payment pressure. Compared to stocks, crypto assets would have less room for deferred taxation; however, gold and foreign exchange are also affected, so it's not targeting only the crypto sector. Are there friends who have transitioned from traditional markets? Do you think this difference will prompt local investors to switch assets, or will it mainly increase cash management difficulties? ETH最脆弱的一环，其实不是价格，是买盘信心在变薄。 - 618这道线，这次还能兜住吗？ 周末那根放量阴线我看着有点闷，ETH连ma10都站不回去，2300-2400原本像是有承接的地方，现在感觉人走茶凉。多头像扶着栏杆下楼梯，一步比一步虚。这不是单纯跌，是愿意在下跌里接的人变少了✨ 我盯的不是某个点位本身，是节奏。价格站不上短期均线、放量又收不回去，说明反弹的力气被消耗得很快。这种结构更接近趋势里的分歧段，还没到彻底派发，但已经不像启动。往上要修复，得先看到缩量止跌再放量收回关键位；往下如果2227附近也守不住，情绪容易从观望滑向被动减仓。 美股那天更有意思，早盘冲高、开盘后全吐回去。表面是弱，我读到的却是下跌还没走完，缺一根放量长下影的收尾。它和crypto的风险偏好是连着的：股市没出清，BTC和ETH的反弹就容易被卖盘压回去，山寨更不用说了，资金只敢短打不敢久留。 偏多的路径也有：2227一带若出现放量长下影、随后收回ma10，说明恐慌盘被吸走，ETH有机会带BTC一起修复情绪。但风险在于，2300-2400的承接已经变薄，一旦跌破2227，下一段可能是加速找支撑，而不是温柔磨底After $1.3 billion liquidations, BTC did not reclaim 80,000, but the real withdrawn funds are not in the contracts
On the eve of the FOMC, BTC touched 80,000 twice intraday but failed to hold, closing at $79,841, with about $1.3 billion worth of positions liquidated across the network in 24 hours. Leverage was cleared in one round, but spot buying did not follow.
$BTC around 79,800—80,200. Weekly ETF net inflow is $301 million, but October cumulative is still a net outflow of $314 million; about $770 million flowed out from the 22nd to 23rd, with 2,123 BTC (about $169 million) withdrawn in a single day. 80,000 is a psychological anchor; reclaiming 81,000 is needed to stop the bleeding.
$ETH around 2,305—2,312. October ETF net outflow is about $1.08 billion, with BlackRock ETHA accounting for 93%. But staking volume hit a record 43.8 million tokens, accounting for 33% of supply; ETFs are withdrawing while on-chain is locking, two groups pricing on different time scales.
$SOL around 100.3. SOL ETF weekly outflow is $17.3 million, negative for three consecutive weeks, ending the previous 14 weeks of inflows. The $100 level is repeatedly tested, but buyers are temporarily absent.
In short: liquidations clear leverage, ETFs withdraw positions, but ETH staking is locked and BTC weekly remains positive. For these three coins, the money hasn’t disappeared; it’s just waiting in different places, waiting for the FOMC to give a reason.
For record-keeping only, not investment advice.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 The Federal Reserve hasn't finished its October meeting yet, but Wall Street has already started betting on a rate hike in December. $BTC trying to rebound this time might not be that simple.
① First, look at market expectations
Reuters surveyed 100 economists; 94 believe there won't be a rate hike in October, but all 100 expect a hike in December.
In other words, the market's real concern isn't this week, but what's coming later.
② Why might BTC not necessarily rise?
Everyone basically expected no rate hike in October.
How much surprise can there be when a message that's already priced in by the market is announced?
BTC is still fluctuating around $80,000, and funds are clearly not that enthusiastic.
③ The real trouble is inflation
US September CPI rose 3.7% year-over-year, and with recent high oil prices, it's not easy for the Fed to ease up.
If on the 28th they continue to send hawkish signals, US Treasury yields and the dollar will strengthen again, and BTC will likely face pressure.
④ What to watch next?
Mainly focus on three things:
▪ Whether the Fed changes its December policy expectations
▪ How US Treasury yields and the dollar react
▪ Whether BTC can firmly hold above $82,000 again
If the December rate hike expectations cool down significantly and BTC sees sustained buying, the outlook will turn optimistic.
Conversely, if policy remains hawkish and $80,000 can't hold, then be prepared for further downside testing.
What might truly influence the market going forward could be the Fed's upcoming statements. #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？
SNDK has dropped sharply this round, and the upcoming earnings report might be the key to deciding the direction.
At the beginning of October, it was still above $1600, but now it has fallen back to around $1255, dropping more than 20% in just a few weeks.
However, I think this adjustment is not entirely due to fundamental problems; it's more because the previous rise was too steep, and the market is starting to worry about how long the high growth in AI storage can continue.
For the earnings report on October 29, I mainly focus on two things:
First, whether NAND flash prices and data center SSD demand can continue to support profits.
Second, whether the guidance for the next quarter can once again exceed expectations.
In terms of price movement, I pay close attention to the support around $1230, with $1300 as the first resistance, and only a breakthrough above $1380 can reverse the recent weakness.
Personally, I lean towards the earnings having a chance to beat expectations, but the stock price may not immediately take off.
If the earnings are good but the stock price continues to fall, then be cautious that the market is still digesting the previous high valuation.
Conversely, if the positive news leads to volume backing and the price returns above $1300, I would be more inclined to believe this adjustment is coming to an end.
SNDK now does not lack growth stories; what it lacks is an earnings report that gives investors a reason to buy back in.$xUSAR 🔥 USAR latest short interest: approximately 51.5M shares
Nasdaq officially released the semi-monthly short-interest report as of the October 15 settlement date today, October 26 at 4:05 PM ET. The updated USAR data now shows about 51.5 million shares short, roughly 3.5 days to cover.
Previous periods were:
9/15: 39.05M
9/30: 45.168M
10/15: ≈51.5M
This means the short position increased by about 6.33 million shares over two weeks, roughly +14%; starting from 30.78M at the end of August, it has increased about 67% in one and a half months. This is a clear and sustained increase in shorting.
In other words, during the first half of October, as the stock price dropped steadily from around 14 to near $11, shorts were not covering to take profits but were continuing to add positions.
Stock price hits new lows + short interest hits new highs.
This creates a dual effect:
On one hand, it indicates that institutional/professional shorts remained very bearish as of October 15 and have not "fully covered" yet.
On the other hand, if a strong enough catalyst emerges later, the 51.5M shares of short covering demand could amplify the upward momentum #ENSv2 activation proposal passed, I am willing to wait for user data before drawing conclusions
The ENSv2 activation proposal was voted through on October 25 and is still pending execution. The management flexibility brought by the upgrade interests me, but the version number itself makes it difficult for me to form a valuation judgment. What I want to know more is whether the user migration is smooth, whether registration and renewal have improved, and whether developers are willing to integrate. Domain name services ultimately rely on sustained usage to establish value. If after the upgrade the community discussion is just livelier but income and usage do not keep up, my judgment of it will not improve much either. 📉 After the midterm elections, will BTC experience a deep pullback again?
Reviewing the price movements after the last two midterm elections:
▪️ In the post-2018 election phase, BTC's maximum drawdown was about -50%
▪️ In the post-2022 election phase, BTC's maximum drawdown was about -25%
The next event is on November 3rd. History won't repeat exactly, but deep corrections occurred after both elections, which is a pattern worth noting. Is it a coincidence, or a regular shift in risk appetite of funds after elections? Will a similar scenario play out again this time?
❗This is only a compilation of publicly available historical data and does not constitute any trading advice. To pour some cold water first, profiting from a short position cannot directly prove that the price will continue to fall afterward. Core Trader 57 has this time closed about 10% of his 7x leveraged BTC short position, realizing a profit of $12,528.83. I am bearish, but this operation makes me more concerned about why he took partial profits first instead of fully endorsing the remaining position's direction.
I have two reasons. The average entry price was $83,032.1, and the closing price was $80,221.047, a price difference of about 3.39%, indicating the profit came from a segment of the decline that has already occurred; betting on this direction only now does not give you his cost advantage. Looking at the action, closing only about 10% shows he realized some profit but is insufficient to prove he is judging a market reversal. Based on this closing ratio, most of the short position remains; if the price rebounds, the remaining position will still give back unrealized gains. I speculate that the most uncomfortable people might be those who chased shorts after seeing the profit screenshot and are reluctant to admit they were wrong.
Of course, he might have taken profits too early; if the price continues to fall later, keeping most of the short position makes sense. I am currently unwilling to treat this partial profit-taking as evidence of increased bearishness; if the price continues to decline and he continues to take profits in batches, I will raise my evaluation of this exit rhythm. I will next watch the coordination between position reductions and price, first distinguishing between "having made money" and "being able to make money next."$BTC
Checked this morning, 80138, still hanging above 80,000. Last week when it was stuck at 85,000, a bunch of people were shouting new highs, and it's only been a few days.
Two things came together. MARA apparently sold about 1,000 BTC last night, over 80 million USD, miners selling coins at the 80,000 level, this smell is familiar to me. Santiment said recently 30,000 Bitcoin wallets have exited, retail investors are also pulling out.
Miners dumping, retail running, this combination usually means the phase bottom is not far away. But how "not far" is, I dare not say for sure. Anyway, at this level I won't chase shorts, miners have started unloading, chasing shorts is easy to get buried the night before the bottom.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议