Orbit Post Sitemap
Last year at the same time, the loss per share was $7.47, today it's only a loss of $0.21
Boeing is releasing Q3 results before the market opens this morning
Expected revenue is about $24.5 billion, up 5.4% year-over-year
The biggest focus is not how much loss is reduced, but whether free cash flow can turn positive
The market expects Q3 free cash flow to be $1–2 billion, while last year it was still a net outflow
Q2 already turned positive with $631 million, delivering 171 aircraft, up 14% year-over-year
Backlog is a record $715 billion, with over 6,200 aircraft waiting for delivery
But don't get carried away by the "97% narrowing"
Only exceeded expectations once in the past four quarters, and Q2 was still $0.42 below expectations
Stock price is $187.78, below the 50-day moving average of $200.75 and the 200-day moving average of $215.14
Underperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 27 percentage points over 52 weeks
My view: Orders are the real foundation, cash flow is the real test, the earnings report is about whether the positive turnaround can be realized
Failure points: free cash flow does not turn positive, or management lowers delivery guidance, then this recovery narrative is invalid
Which side are you on?
Turn positive on cash flow and move on, or take another loss and admit defeat?
$BA $RTX $XLI
#Boeing #EarningsReport#微软Azure增长43%，AI商业化能否提速？
Microsoft will release its FY2027 Q1 earnings report after the U.S. market closes on October 28. The market expects revenue of about $90.6 billion and EPS around $4.71.
My prediction is: both revenue and EPS have a chance to slightly exceed expectations, with revenue roughly between $90.8 billion and $91.5 billion, and EPS about $4.75 to $4.90. Here's why:
First, Azure is the key to revenue beating expectations.
Last quarter, Microsoft Cloud revenue was $59.3 billion, up 27% year-over-year, with Azure and other cloud services growing 43%. The company’s Q1 guidance expects Azure to grow about 45% at constant currency.
If Azure can achieve 46% or even higher growth, surpassing the company’s revenue guidance ceiling of $90.95 billion won’t be difficult. Commercial remaining performance obligations have reached $678 billion, up 84% year-over-year, indicating strong orders and future revenue backlog.
Second, Copilot and Microsoft 365 will improve revenue quality.
Microsoft 365 commercial cloud grew about 16% last quarter, and Copilot paid users have already exceeded 30 million.
Even if AI hasn’t yet fully converted into high profits, subscription contracts and enterprise customer stickiness already support growth. Microsoft is not solely reliant on advertising or consumer electronics.
This is my personal analysis and not investment advice.🫣 $MSFT After dropping 36% in three weeks, a $40 billion 2027 guidance led Celestica to bounce back 16% in after-hours trading, but I won't chase this gap up.
Here's what I see: $CLS Q3 revenue was $5.83 billion, up 83% year-over-year, with adjusted EPS of 3.30, beating the expected 2.99.
The 2027 initial guidance shows revenue of $40 billion and EPS of 21.50, both above the expected $36.07 billion and 19.70; however, the full-year free cash flow guidance was lowered from $600 million to $460 million.
Regular session closed at 246.65, down 5.14%, with volume about 2.7 times the 50-day average, just $2 above the 52-week low of 244.51.
After-hours price is around 287, still well below the 50-day moving average of 327.
The earnings aren't bad; what's bad is the market's confidence in mega-cap AI spending; the customers are just a few, and no matter how good the guidance looks, the spending is still from others' budgets.
The 16% after-hours move is on thin volume; the real test will be the conference call at 8 PM Shanghai time tonight and the analyst day.
I'm watching but not chasing; won't touch it until it holds above 273 (the high on 10/26); if it falls below 244.51, this rebound logic fails.
Is $40 billion ironclad proof of the AI supercycle, or the last beautiful order before mega-cap budgets peak?
$CLS $NVDA $META
#AI降速争议未退，算力投入继续加码 "76% Betting on Exceeding Expectations, But It's Hard to Play an Open Hand"
SanDisk reported after the U.S. market close on October 29. In the prediction market, 76% of the funds bet on its earnings exceeding expectations. The surface logic is straightforward: AI data center demand is still expanding, NAND prices are rising, and the company guided revenue between $10.3 billion and $10.8 billion.
But this 76% ratio indicates that expectations are already maxed out, and the cards are almost an open hand. The market not only looks at how much was sold last quarter but also whether the guidance for the next quarter can continue to explode. The tech earnings season has many examples: Western Digital beat expectations and had decent guidance, yet its stock price still fell. As long as SanDisk's guidance hints at a peak in profit margins or a slowdown in NAND price increases, this 76% of funds could quickly turn into the main force selling off, and a stampede could happen at any time.
Semiconductors are the global tech stock barometer, and this earnings report has a very direct impact. If it beats expectations and the market withstands selling pressure, tech sentiment can stabilize, and BTC can breathe easier; if earnings are outstanding but the stock price is crushed, it means Wall Street has changed its valuation logic for AI hardware, BTC liquidity will be drained, and selling pressure above will be heavier. $SNDK $xSNDK The $80,000 mark has become the fortress for the bulls and bears battle. This week, the Federal Reserve decision, PCE data, and tech giant earnings reports bombard the market intensively, sending the fear index soaring to 42. With extremely low volume, the market has reached a critical turning point.
Following the macro deleveraging trend, although the real positions have gained huge profits, the position structure hides risks on the eve of the storm:
· $ETH short: average price 2383, current price 2312. Floating profit 1430U (+90%), 30x full position.
· $BTC short: average price 81662, current price 79956. Floating profit 273U (+41%), 20x isolated margin.
· $BNB long: average price 731, break-even, 20x isolated margin.
Survival rules on the eve of the storm:
1. Realize profits to prevent double-sided liquidation.
30x full position is hard to withstand macro shocks. Immediately close half of ETH positions to lock in 700U profit, set trailing stop for the rest; reduce BTC positions at the 80,000 level, move stop loss below the entry price to stay undefeated.
2. Remove counter-trend positions to prevent altcoin catch-up drops.
Macro deleveraging dominates, BNB longs are prone to catch-up declines. It is recommended to close positions immediately or set a strict stop loss near 715.
3. Lower leverage to prevent extreme volatility.
During earnings week, macro will overwhelm technicals. Before data release, overall leverage must be reduced below 10x.
On the eve of the storm, securing profits and reducing dimensional risk is the top trading rule. #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ Putting on-chain actions back into the macro framework, I am more concerned whether the buying is due to a rise in risk appetite or short sellers taking profits. Core Trader 57 closed about 10% of their $BTC short position this time, using 7x leverage. The amount closed was approximately $357,500, realizing a profit of $12,528.83.
My inclination is: this is a profit-taking move and cannot yet be considered a major shift to bullish sentiment. Closing shorts requires buying back, but this buying reduces old risk rather than actively increasing long exposure. Although both involve buying, their implications for subsequent demand are different, and I do not mix them.
Pushing further, here is my hypothesis: if macro liquidity improves, then after short sellers take profits, new longs willing to step in are more likely to appear, making the risk appetite recovery sustainable; if funding constraints remain tight, then after the buyback ends, whether demand continues is questionable. Also, this time only about 10% was exited, which is insufficient to prove that traders have overturned their original bearish view.
I tend to give this signal less weight initially: profit-taking means this part of the trade was successful, but it does not mean it can vote for the macro direction. To judge whether this short covering has greater directional significance, what are you most concerned about now: US dollar liquidity, real US Treasury yields, or rate cut expectations? Which change best helps you assess risk appetite?Last night's strategy provided a precise southbound range of 4018-4030, multiple entry opportunities, each entry with a 10-point space!【Market Snapshot】Dogecoin Shorts Squeezed Together
$DOGE shorts are definitely having a wild ride in this market. There are 499 short whale contracts holding $84 million in positions, while longs only have a bit over $10 million, making the long-short ratio drop to 12%. The entire network is overwhelmingly bearish on Dogecoin.
But the more crowded the positions, the harsher the backlash. With $80 million in shorts concentrated on one side, even a slight price uptick will trigger stop-losses and liquidations in a chain reaction, turning short covering into fuel for a price rally. Being bearish doesn’t mean it’s safe; crowded shorts themselves are a risk.
Of course, this doesn’t mean a rally will happen immediately. The key is whether the price can hold and test higher levels; if it just consolidates sideways, shorts can still slowly wear down longs. But blindly chasing shorts now is no longer cost-effective.
Don’t get swept up by the "whole network is bearish" sentiment—first watch which side the positions start to loosen.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #中东原油运输恢复，油价为何仍居高位？
$DOGE
👇Still slowly on the road to breaking even, I now look at the news and no longer dare to focus solely on “positive or negative” factors. After losses in the past two years, I realized that the numbers on paper and the actual money you can keep are really not the same.
According to Bloomberg, the Netherlands plans to vote on related tax reforms in November: stocks, bonds, and options are planned to be subject to capital gains tax upon sale starting in 2028, while cryptocurrencies, gold, and foreign exchange may still be taxed annually on unrealized gains at least until 2030. The local crypto industry organization warns that this arrangement could trigger a sell-off of crypto assets.
I think this is potential pressure for local holders, but to directly interpret it as an inevitable market-wide sell-off is too hasty. The proposal has not yet been implemented, and the industry’s warning is not a result that has already occurred.
What touched me most is that unrealized gains do not equal cash in hand. If you need to pay taxes on unrealized gains, then people lacking sufficient cash might have to sell part of their assets to raise tax funds, which is my speculation. Another layer of pressure is that, although both are investments, the timing of taxation differs, which may affect local investors’ willingness to allocate assets, not just short-term sentiment.
One lesson I’ve learned is: when calculating risk, you can’t just consider price volatility; you also have to consider rules and cash needs. For friends still breaking even, stay steady, don’t rush to race with every piece of news 💪 How has everyone’s mindset been lately? If you have to pay annual taxes on unrealized gains in your holdings, would you reserve cash or adjust your portfolio ratio?Looking at this type of treasury increase, I'll first calculate the risk and reward: an additional demand doesn't mean chasing the news will yield good odds. Solana treasury company DeFi Development increased its holdings by 5,346 SOL, bringing the total holdings to about 2.595 million SOL. My judgment leans positive, but it's not enough to change my overall view on SOL alone.
The reason is simple: the new position relative to the existing scale is not large. This news slightly raises the likelihood that "this company is still willing to increase its SOL exposure," but it doesn't directly increase the probability that "the market will continue to rise." One company adding to its position is different from the entire market showing new demand.
I want to see where the funds come from and the holding costs; since the material doesn't say, I'll leave it blank for now. My guess is, if the funds are stable and the holding period is long enough, then the continuity of treasury demand is more worth attention; if it relies on high-cost financing, then besides price volatility, there is an additional layer of financial pressure, making the odds not necessarily favorable.
For ordinary participants, I think the easiest pitfall is to treat the 2.595 million SOL stock as the new buying volume this time. If the news is amplified by sentiment, even if the directional judgment is correct, the participation expectation may worsen. I will continue to watch if the increase can be sustained and won't use a single position increase to back my winning rate.The ancient giant whale who subscribed to 100,000 $ETH in the 2015 ICO continues to sell, transferring 3,000 ETH to exchanges in nearly 24 hours, worth 6.94 million USD 🙌
Since its cost was as low as 0.31 USD, the return rate for this sale will reach 746,324%. There are still 47,000 ETH left on-chain, worth 109 million USD; additionally, it is worth noting that last night he transferred over 100 million USD in stablecoins to major exchanges / MM / OTC institutions, purpose unknown
Wallet address 0x0980B34aDE9476Dba81BCDB0F865a333793Ad1c2❗️ ❗️Strong selling pressure has appeared in the US market
Bitcoin's trading price on Coinbase is $140 lower than on Binance and OKX.
Over the past 6 months, weak OTC demand has become the norm.
Don't rush to bottom-fish; it may not be the bottom yet
⚠️The above is only a market observation and does not constitute investment advice848,000 Bitcoin tokens are in cold storage; that's not just a position, it's like a whole bluefin tuna hanging over an open flame—$20.9 billion in quarterly unrealized gains, like oil dripping and sizzling on the charcoal, the sound so pleasant it makes you forget there are other pots cooking in the kitchen.
But a true chef never applauds the dripping oil. The oil is the result; the heat control is the skill. The Q3 earnings report won't be served until after the U.S. market closes on October 29, and what I have in front of me now is the ingredient list and seasoning chart: the main dish piled up to nearly 850,000 BTC, so heavy it almost bends the whole stove; at the same time reaching for a $176 million preferred stock buyback—that's a carefully measured thickening, not an addition, but a reduction. When you have unrealized gains in hand, you don't rush to pour more oil into the pot; instead, you skim the foam off the surface and simmer the broth to concentrate the cost—this is the old-school method and the safest way to avoid disaster.
What truly decides whether this dish can earn a star is never how much main dish there is, but the ratio. The mainstream coins are the main dish, taking up 70% of the plate; missing even a piece of meat ruins the presentation; altcoins are the seasoning, a pinch to enhance aroma, but too much makes the whole pot bitter; leveraged contracts are the super spicy chili—just a fingernail-sized amount can lift the soul of the dish, but a shaky hand dumping half the jar will burn the intestines and scare all the guests away the next day. Now the main dish is already exaggeratedly thick, and the heat keeps increasing; the problem isn't the flavor, but the kitchen size: the stove is only so big, and if you want to keep adding ingredients to the pot of 850,000 BTC, you have to rely on external financing to get a bigger stove or portion the existing broth into smaller servings to feed new products.
And I can hear the commotion from the neighboring stove. The tech stocks in the U.S. market are secretly competing with this side; one side is running on oil, the other on sugar, but the base flavor is becoming more alike—capital is choosing the more fuel-efficient pot. Stored yields suddenly turn sweet, and sugar color easily overshoots, and when it overshoots, it turns bitter.
So the next focus isn't how much unrealized gain there is, but whether this pot needs a new stove, which stove to add fuel to, and whether that jar of chili has been opened. Positions can be heavy, but ratios can't be messed with; having a big enough pot doesn't mean you dare to turn up the heat. True masters always use the overflow oil to season the next dish, not pour all the oil back into the fire. #strategyq3btcgains#BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ $BTC around 80,150, the third test of the 80,000 mark, 80,000 has become a “meat grinder.” ETF weekly inflow is 301 million but lost 774 million in the last two days, with a net outflow of 314 million in October, showing structural fragility. 81,500-82,000 has turned from support to resistance, with dense buy orders below 79,300. Before the FOMC, no position taking, no short chasing, no bottom fishing, wait for volume confirmation.Last night presented a rather divided picture: U.S. stocks rose, with the Nasdaq up 0.82%, Microsoft up 1.54%, but Bitcoin remained flat at 80070, not moving at all.
More notably, MSTR fell 4.24% even before its earnings report was released, as funds exited early. As one of the biggest buyers in the crypto space, it was sold off prematurely.
Looking at Bitcoin's own 4-hour chart, during the U.S. stock market session last night, it saw the largest volume in nearly a week, yet the price barely moved—a classic case of high volume with stagnant price. Some are desperately buying at this level, while others are desperately selling, resulting in a stalemate at 80,000.
So it's not that no one is entering the market; rather, buyers and sellers collided head-on.
This balance won't last long. The Federal Reserve meets today and tomorrow, with results announced at 2 a.m. on the 29th. MSTR is also releasing its earnings this week. These two events coinciding are specifically meant to break this balance.
My view is that the high volume with stagnant price above 80,000 is neither a top nor a bottom, but a divergence. The end of this divergence will determine the direction. Breaking above the double top at 80,850 means buyers win; breaking below 79,200 means sellers win. Until then, no one can claim stability.
What do you think—who will blink first this time, the bulls or the bears?
#Strategy财报前瞻：BTC账面收益大幅反弹 $MSTR $BTC $ETH A brief analysis of BTC short-term trend from Dow Theory, Chan Theory, Wave Theory, volume-price relationship, order flow, and price action (strategy suggestions)
Comprehensive judgment
Dow Theory confirms the panic bottom at 79,275 breaking the downtrend structure
Chan Theory first buy confirmation + bottom break reversal structure
Wave Theory Y' wave ends, new round of impulse wave ① in progress
Volume-price relationship: 20.3 billion daily volume + 1.245 billion Delta = sellers completely cleared out
Order flow +1.245 billion is the strongest accumulation signal of the year
Price action panic bottom + long lower shadow + holding above 80k = complete bottom structure.
Six-dimensional comprehensive: 79,275 is the ultimate bottom of the six-week grinder, currently at the starting point of a new 4,000+ point rally. But note: only 400 million low volume in the early session on 10-27, true direction confirmation requires waiting for the US session (after 20:00) volume breakout at 80,500-81,000.
$BTC #星球日报 Crypto markets are attempting a rebound, but the money trail suggests relief rather than reversal. The four-hour window tells one story; the 24-hour and 30-day windows tell another, and the gap between them is where the real signal sits. On the latest four-hour reading, $BTC drew $39.36 million in net spot inflows and $127 million in net contract inflows. $ETH followed with $24.24 million spot and $56.19 million in contracts. That looks like buyers stepping back in. Zoom out, though, and the samThe $SUI market hasn't really moved much, but the funds on the $SUI chain have completely withdrawn.
Stablecoins ran off by 14% in a week, and DEX trading volume was directly halved by 46%.
No matter how loud the off-chain hype is, money simply can't be retained on-chain. With liquidity drying up like this, there's not even a decent buy order; don't even think about the $1 mark bouncing back in the short term.
#SUI
$SUI
👇$BTC barely holds above 80,000 but still gasps on the edge of a cliff: I don't believe this small rebound can reverse the bearish pressure
As of October 27, BTC is quoted at $80,237.52, with a 24-hour range of $79,368.67—$80,844.70. Although the price has slightly recovered compared to the 24-hour opening, it has still retreated from the $84,898 high over the past 7 days, and the overall weakness remains unchanged.
I believe the previous sharp rise and fall were not caused by a single bearish factor: after the surge, profit-taking was concentrated, combined with the chain liquidation of leveraged funds after key support was lost, which amplified the volatility. On the news front, cautious sentiment before the Federal Reserve meeting and concerns about AI trading pressured risk assets, confirming the pullback at that time; stablecoin payments and the delay of South Korea's crypto tax are more medium to long-term factors and have not yet reversed the short-term risk-off atmosphere.
Technically, the MACD death cross remains, with DIFF at -491.63 and the histogram at -351.38; BTC is below MA7 $81,161 and MA25 $82,574. RSI(6) has risen to 32.79, indicating some support at low levels but no reversal signal yet. As a bear, my clear observation target is $79,221: if it falls below this level again effectively, the weakness may spread; only by regaining and holding above $81,161 should we be wary of a bear-covering style recovery.
The above is only market analysis and does not constitute investment advice.$DOOD (Doodles, an NFT concept token) is currently a typical small-cap coin driven by Korean capital speculation, with cautious market sentiment and highly volatile short-term trends. Current market price: 0.002301 USDT • 24h: +64.23%, trading volume approximately 6.99 million USDT Market mainstream view • The rise is not project-driven but pushed by exchange funds: recently (October 21), there was a concentrated buy-in on the Upbit KRW market causing a sharp surge; at that time, Upbit accounted for about 46% of global trading volume (approximately 124.8 million USD), then quickly fell back more than half from the day's high, a typical "Upbit short-term overheating" pattern [X analysis ↗]. • Disconnected from fundamentals: during the same period, the floor price of Doodles NFTs only rose about 6%, seriously diverging from the token's multiple-fold increase; analysis points out almost no secondary catalysts from the project, mostly FOMO and circulating capital entering. • High leverage risk: derivatives trading volume once reached about 60 times that of spot, indicating prices are mainly determined by leveraged traders, which easily amplifies price swings. • This round of rebound has not yet returned to previous highs: current price is about -86% compared to the historical high (0.01753 USDT), and about +112% premium compared to the historical low of 0.001109 USDT, overall still in a violently fluctuating range near the lows 🚨 Overnight US stocks rebounded over 1%, but Bitcoin did not follow — this might be the most worrisome divergence this month.
US stock risk appetite is back, but BTC didn’t catch the wave and is still tugging around the 80,000 mark (OKX currently around 80,200, with a 24-hour low touching 79,370); even more striking is the other side: spot gold continues to rise at $4,017, silver stands above 53.9. Funds are not oscillating between risk-off and risk-on, but moving into precious metals — the US stock rise is driven by earnings expectations, and crypto didn’t get a share of this.
The hottest topic is this week’s FOMC decision, with results coming tomorrow night. My stance: wait and see. Reason: the market’s mainstream pricing expects no change, all suspense is in December, and front-running before the event has very low cost-effectiveness; hold 80,000 then watch for a rebound, if lost, admit the mistake.
Do you think the funds moving to gold is a temporary diversion or the start of a trend?
$BTC $ETH #欧意星球 #BTC行情 #Cryptocurrency #FOMCDecision
The above is my personal market observation, data as of today, not investment advice; crypto assets are highly volatile, please judge independently and bear your own risk (DYOR).The biggest mistake on October 29 is to watch the Federal Reserve announcement at midnight and then assume the direction for the entire day.
The interest rate decision is announced at 2:00 AM, followed by a press conference at 2:30 AM. The market first trades on the policy wording, with BTC leading the initial wave of volatility.
The real verification comes at 8:30 PM.
The preliminary US Q3 GDP, initial jobless claims, and September core PCE are released simultaneously. GDP is expected to grow at an annualized rate of 3.1%, and core PCE is expected to rise from 3.0% to 3.1%.
This combination is critical:
Strong GDP and rising core PCE mean the market re-trades the expectation of higher interest rates lasting longer.
Weak GDP and rising core PCE lead directly to stagflation trading.
Only when both growth and inflation cool down simultaneously do risk assets have a foundation for sustained rebound.
Therefore, the price moves at midnight are just the first round of pricing; the evening data is responsible for confirming or overturning it. BTC leads the direction first, ETH and SOL amplify the volatility, and ZEC’s independent trend must also pass liquidity tests.
I do not chase trades based on the first big bullish or bearish candle at midnight. October 29 is not a one-sided market day but a day when the direction is continuously rewritten. Yesterday I was still down 58%, today I recovered and am only down 12%! It turns out what saved me wasn’t good news, but short sellers covering their positions
Family, last night I was still emo in the pit, but when I woke up this morning, the unrealized loss on $ETH shrank from 58% to 12%, and I immediately sat up.
Why did it rise? You might not believe it, but it wasn’t because of any major positive news; it was because short sellers were covering. Earlier, they smashed the price down, trapping a bunch of leveraged short positions. After the price stopped falling, bottom-fishing funds entered, and with short sellers taking profits and covering their shorts, the shorts buying back actually pushed the price up a bit. ETH technically rebounded 1% today, and my long position benefited from that recovery.
The market sentiment is also awkward now; the Fear and Greed Index is at 48, stuck at "neutral" for two consecutive days—neither panicking nor greedy. Volume is low on both rises and falls, a typical scenario before the FOMC meeting where everyone is cautious and just watching.
Honestly, this kind of rebound caused by short covering is the most fragile—it’s like "trampling and then bouncing back on their own," not a real buying surge. My position recovering from 58% loss to 12% gave me a slight relief, but I don’t dare feel secure—after all, the decision won’t come out until the early morning of the 29th, and today’s move is just a brief pause before the storm.
At times like this, the worst thing is to add to your position confidently after a rebound. My position is still trapped, so I’ll just patiently wait for the FOMC. Whether the rebound window created by short covering can turn into a real reversal depends on what the Fed says.October 27 Q Observation: Handing Voting Over to AI, Does That Mean Giving Up Control Too?
Q experienced significant volatility today, with Quack AI once again becoming the focus of discussion. This morning, Gate's spot rolling 24-hour trading volume was about 28.25 million USDT, and KuCoin's was about 8.8 million USDT. The sharp price surge easily makes people focus only on the next price point, but what’s more worth questioning about this project is how much authority AI actually obtains when participating in governance on behalf of users.
The project officially positions Q as a governance and utility token, usable for on-chain governance, delegating decision-making to AI agents, and accessing tools. The official FAQ also states that users can revoke delegated authority and reclaim direct voting rights. This means "letting AI act on your behalf" is not the same as "permanently giving up control"; the specifics depend on the contracts and scope of authorization used.
Its Q402 document also lists policy constraints such as permissions, limits, and expiration times. Automated execution can reduce repetitive operations but cannot judge whether a proposal is reasonable for the user; keeping execution records does not guarantee that the execution results will meet expectations. The document describes the project design; this article does not include actual contract permission testing.
The usage of governance tools and short-term token price are separated by actual demand, circulating supply, and market liquidity. Today's trading volume does not represent new user numbers, nor net inflow. The reverse volatility after the surge, misconfigured authorizations, and contract execution risks need to be considered separately.
$Q #Q
For informational purposes only, not investment advice. Robinhood's trading revenue is growing fast, relying on volatility. Breaking down the sources of this round of trading revenue, the elasticity basically depends on retail turnover, and turnover is supported by volatility. Putting several numbers of $ETH together here, you can see how this round of turnover has been built up.
The US spot BTC ETF saw a net outflow of about $229 million from October 12 to 16, with a cumulative weekly outflow of nearly $700 million, and the spot ETH ETF also experienced net outflows during the same period. Incremental funds have not pushed it up.
On the high-leverage side, the 25x ETH long position of that trader was completely liquidated, leaving only $5,357 in the account, with a cumulative loss of $35.37 million. The 25x positions are still being liquidated, indicating that a significant portion of the turnover is contributed by forced liquidations.
This week also includes the October FOMC interest rate decision, so the source of volatility is there, but the direction is undecided.
Turnover and revenue are two different things: trading volume driven by forced liquidations and stop losses may not continue next quarter. For Robinhood's trading business to continue growing, incremental funds need to support it, but these numbers are not visible yet.
#Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ #AWS算力需求旺盛，亚马逊Q3财报有哪些看点？
AMZN, Nasdaq, and BTC liquidity resonance
The current macro liquidity environment is extremely fragile: if Amazon is slaughtered due to "revenue exceeding expectations + terrifying Capex + FCF turning negative,"
BTC is very likely to dive along with it. And at this critical moment, the string holding BTC at the 80,000 mark is easily snapped.
The tech giant's capital expenditure might be seen as "ineffective internal competition," which would directly trigger a liquidity squeeze across the entire market. BTC has been hovering around 80,000 for several days. Yesterday, I even prepared for a short squeeze, but as of today, a decent daily rebound still hasn't come! Is everyone really just waiting for the Fed? I think it's more like the bears can't break through for now, and the bulls are unwilling to chase higher! I just saw some on-chain data: retail investors' BTC inflows to exchanges in the past 30 days surged from $5.5 billion to $10.75 billion, hitting a six-month high, while large holders' inflows dropped from $5.9 billion to $3.8 billion. Retail investors are busy sending coins to exchanges, but large holders are reducing their transfers. Isn't this market situation quite awkward? There's support below 80,000, but no sustained buying pressure above! ETH is also weak; Hayes has cleared directional positions, and foundation-related addresses exchanged 2,785 coins. The 4-hour moving averages haven't truly stabilized, which to me looks even weaker than BTC. I still maintain a short-term bearish bias with oscillation, but I don't want to chase pumps or dumps near 80,000! Before the rate decision, treat 79,300 to 80,400 as a consolidation box; intraday spikes don't count as valid breakouts. No rate hike in October is already priced in; more important than the decision is whether BTC can hold above 80,000 after Wash's speech and reclaim 80,800 to 81,100. If it can't hold, I still see any rebound as a correction; if 79,220 breaks again, don't expect support at 80,000 to hold forever! #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议
US Stock Market Analysis: Behind the AI Frenzy, Someone Is Quietly Paying the Bill
Overnight, the three major US stock indices all closed higher: the S&P 500 rose 0.70%, the Nasdaq rose 0.82%, but don’t be fooled by the indices—Goldman Sachs AI Index surged 2.49%, while the S&P components excluding AI only rose 0.02%.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index led with a 2.82% gain, Nvidia rose 2.40%, Micron rose 2.98%, and Lumentum surged over 8%. All the gains are in AI; other assets are just tagging along.
Impact of macro news on various assets:
Anthropic officially filed for an IPO, reporting $16.286 billion in revenue for the first half of the year, with adjusted operating profit turning positive for the first time, but a GAAP net loss of 80.7 billion mainly due to paper losses from convertible bond fair value changes.
Meta simultaneously launched up to $95 billion in equity financing, with Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom interested in subscribing up to $5 billion.
These two events together answer the question of "Who foots the bill for AI capital expenditure?"—the answer is a siphoning from the stock market. On the US Treasury side, the 10-year yield slightly fell to 4.98%, with the market awaiting the Federal Reserve decision; current pricing shows over 90% probability of no change in October, but December rate hike expectations remain.
Oil prices retreated slightly, WTI down about 1.5% to $101.76, with Middle East risk premium still intact.
The AI narrative is indeed reignited, but Meta’s own 1.88% decline is the real signal. The S&P remains stuck below the 50-day moving average $BTC: Go long!
Strategy:
· Wait for the price to pull back and stabilize in the 79,500-80,000 range (above the previous spike low and the round number) before entering a long position.
· The initial target is 80,800 (24-hour high) and the EMA resistance zone; a valid breakout would target 82,000. Set stop loss below 79,000.
Core rationale:
1. Extreme short positions: Chart 2 shows a nominal long-short ratio of only 27.83%, with short positions reaching 2.81 billion U, nearly 4 times the longs! The average short cost is 76,643, currently floating a loss of over 126 million U. Once a rebound occurs, it can easily trigger an epic short squeeze.
2. Long-short double liquidation shakeout: The average long price of 86,645 is also deeply underwater (floating loss of 62 million U). Around 80k is a typical shakeout meat grinder, with a violent spike down to 79,168 confirming support; short selling momentum is temporarily exhausted.
3. Technical convergence: The 1-hour EMA5/10/20 are tightly clustered near 80,100, signaling an imminent breakout. Given the extreme crowding and losses among shorts, the probability of an upward breakout triggering a short squeeze is much higher than a continued one-sided decline.
#October FOMC rate decision will be announced this week $FIL fil is basically in a do-or-die state for the next year. Currently, the crypto space is all about achieving real-world adoption; relying solely on narratives to pump the price is becoming increasingly difficult. The recent series of strategic moves will determine whether commercialization takes off. If it succeeds, the flywheel spins, resulting in multiples, even tens of times growth. If it fails, it might slowly die out:
Solstice says: Bring paying customers, and I'll give you more rewards;
If you don't, the rewards will be burned, and no one gets anything for free.
↓
Integral Spacetime says: Then I'll just buy companies with customers,
and bring thousands of paying users onboard at once.
↓
Filecoin Pay USD settlement surges
↓
Solstice service reward shares are activated by real demand (no longer burned)
↓
SP/service providers earn real money → attracting more SPs to enter
↓
Larger capacity → attracting more acquisition targets
↓
The flywheel starts spinningYesterday the AI sector finally caught a breather, with NVIDIA rising 2.4% in one day, closing at $216.
Anthropic publicly filed an S-1 on Monday, aiming to list on NASDAQ under the ticker ANT.
The filing shows revenue of $16.3 billion in the first half of the year, compared to only $1.16 billion in the same period last year, a 14-fold increase.
However, the net loss was $80.7 billion, of which $72.4 billion was non-cash accounting entries, not actual cash burned.
The entire semiconductor sector followed suit, with Micron up 3%, AMD up 2.8%, NASDAQ up 0.82%, and the S&P up 0.7%.
Honestly, one filing has reversed half of last week's panic; this market sentiment is running much faster than the fundamentals.
My view is straightforward: this is an emotional recovery, not a trend reversal. The semiconductor ETF is still about 25% below its peak.
It will only be considered strong again if it breaks above 217.75 (yesterday's high); if it falls below 212.61 (yesterday's low), this judgment is void. I'll be watching from the sidelines for now.
What do you think? Will Anthropic bring the AI rally back this week, or will the Fed's statement on Wednesday knock it back down? $NVDA $MU $AMD
#Anthropic拟11月启动IPO，目标于感恩节前上市 #BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？
$BTC $ETH Everyone is watching interest rates, oil prices, and decisions, but what often determines account profits and losses is the easily overlooked market structure: the crypto market has clearly entered an era of liquidity stratification.
Simply put, there are now two separate capital systems.
BTC and ETH belong to the macro institutional segment, supported by ETFs, spot base holdings, and long-term allocation funds. Even if market sentiment is weak, there is still support below, mostly resulting in a choppy bottoming process, making a collapse without resistance unlikely.
This is why many feel "there seems to be opportunity, but every trade loses." We are still using the mindset of past broad bull markets to deal with a capital environment that prefers quality and clusters for risk aversion.
First, abandon the simple idea of "staking on low-level altcoins." Currently, it is better to keep the strong and discard the weak, rather than betting on underdogs to make a comeback. Targets continuously abandoned by capital will become increasingly marginalized.
Second, concentrate your positions as much as possible. Instead of spreading bets across many low-volume small coins, focus on leaders with good liquidity and real support.
Third, reduce frequent coin switching and chasing rotations. At this stage, there are very few sustained trends; many so-called opportunities are just brief one-day pulses, and frequent participation only wears down accounts.
The market hasn't completely turned bad, but the profit logic has changed. Stop chasing illusions in weak targets, embrace the leaders, control your trading frequency, and patiently wait for macro and capital to resonate.
Brothers, how do you see the market moving forward? Let's discuss in the comments.4小时里44万美元的仓位被双向扫掉，这种针脚行情最会骗人。 你看到的是洗盘，还是波动阶段悄悄换了主角？ 这两天盯盘有个很直观的感受：BTC 掉到83000下方三次，每次都被快速捞回，现在在78000到82000之间来回磨，78000这道支撑还没破，但短线重心已经偏下，方向像被Fed按了暂停键。真正值得记的不是跌了多少，而是反弹的力度一次比一次软，说明追多的手在犹豫。 - BTC：三次探底三次收回，78000未失守，属于守得住但攻不动的状态，波动率在收敛，等的是宏观发令枪。 - BNB：700到770横了一个月，739是均线中枢，MACD动能归零，方向感模糊；但中长线仍站在200日线上方，抬升结构没坏。今晚纳斯达克敲钟的财库叙事是短期变量，故事能撑住溢价，也可能变成兑现窗口。 - ZEC：9月那波拉升后在高位1050到1370横盘，贴着50日线，RSI在48附近，多空都不占优。11月5日NU7升级是明确的时间锚，突破区间或等催化，二选一。 我更在意的是这三者之间的强弱排序。大盘走弱时它们没跟着塌，说明筹码被握着，不是被抛着；但握着不等于要拉，波动收缩到这个程度，往往是在把预期提前计价，真First, to pour some cold water, nearly doubling the minting volume does not mean SOL's benefits have doubled. According to Onchain Lens monitoring, Circle has minted a total of 112.01 billion USDC on Solana so far in 2026, across 448 transactions, an increase of about 99.1% compared to the full year 2025's 56.25 billion USD; among them, on October 26, two transactions each minted 250 million USD, totaling 500 million USD.
I think the easiest thing to misinterpret is "new purchasing power." First, cumulative minting does not equal net inflow; without looking at redemptions and outflows during the same period, we don't know how much capital actually remains, so it cannot be directly treated as an equivalent amount of funds ready to buy tokens. Second, the turnover of USD on-chain is a different matter from capital chasing SOL. If these USDC are mainly used for payments and settlements, then the scale of stablecoin usage can expand without necessarily bringing an equivalent intensity of token demand. This is my speculation and the minting figures cannot be taken as proof of it.
Of course, bulls may have a broader perspective than I do. If we later see USDC net circulation continuously increasing, with real trading activity and fee demand strengthening simultaneously, I will admit this is not just supply-side excitement and adjust my cautious judgment. I do not deny Solana's absorption capacity, but right now I want to focus more on what the money that stays is actually doing, rather than getting excited by the total minting volume."Buyback Threshold" of Derivatives DEX: Trading Volume Booming, Where Did the Buying Pressure Go?
In the derivatives DEX sector, trading volume is the face, but actual buybacks are the substance. No matter how good the mechanism is, if it is not executed promptly, it is just empty talk.
$DYDX: Although it promises to use 75% of net revenue for buybacks, constrained by shrinking market share and sluggish trading volume, the actual cash spent monthly has significantly decreased. The mechanism remains on paper but has lost sufficient self-sustaining capability, making buybacks merely a drop in the bucket.
$GMX: Appears to allocate 27% of fees for buybacks, but in reality, it feels more like a "blank check." Buyback tokens are tightly locked in the treasury and only released when the token price reaches $90. Using such an almost illusory long-term condition to cover up the current inability to support the price floor.
$HYPE: No gimmicks. Directly uses 97%-99% of core fees to buy back from the market and permanently burn tokens, with over 49.69 million tokens burned (approximately $4.05 billion). Daily mandatory buying pressure at the million-dollar level is the real price moat.
Summary:
The value of a mechanism lies in immediate execution. Buybacks with harsh preconditions are ineffective in a weak market; rules that cannot convert into real buying pressure are just self-indulgence by the project team. $HYPE
Kraken's parent company plans to move the US perpetual contracts onto the Hyperliquid chain. Do you see this as a positive development, or as a hole poked in decentralization?
I've thought about this, and it's not that simple. Hyperliquid itself announced on October 26: Bitnomial (a CFTC-regulated exchange and clearinghouse under Payward) will be the first regulated HIP-3 deployer, with NinjaTrader Clearing managing customer accounts, pending regulatory approval.
Matching happens on-chain, compliance at the door. To get through this door, you first need to be on the whitelist. This is a completely different approach from their usual permissionless model.
HYPE is currently at 78.6, up 2.7% in 24 hours; the market is rising first as a sign of respect. My view is that this is a grab for TradFi's landing channel, neutral to slightly positive, but don't expect US retail investors to rush in without barriers.
The real value is that the on-chain order book has been approved by regulators. I support this direction.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 一家SaaS公司宣布ARR达到10亿美元，不等于它今年确认了10亿美元收入，更不等于赚到了10亿美元利润——这个区别，恰恰是当下AI与云计算叙事里最容易被模糊的边界。当市场为云厂商的“年度经常性收入”欢呼时，真正该问的是：这笔钱是已经落袋的营收，还是把当前订阅规模按年折算出来的一个观察值？ ARR的本质是“把当前定期业务规模年化”，而非已实现收入或利润。举个直观例子：一家软件公司若有10万名付费客户、每人每年支付1000元，ARR约为1亿元。它衡量的是订阅业务的“体量刻度”，不是财报上的确认收入。这个定义差异，在AI驱动的云服务扩张周期里被放大了——市场情绪容易把ARR当成业绩本身，从而高估增长的确定性。 真正值得盯的是四个维度。❶增速：ARR同比涨了多少？定期业务是在加速还是减速？❷来源：增长来自新客户，还是老客户加购？前者考验获客效率，后者考验产品黏性，含金量完全不同。❸质量：续约率和流失率如何？定期业务能否持续？这决定了ARR是“一次性冲量”还是“可复利资产”。❹口径：不同公司对ARR的定义和计算方式可能不同，跨公司比较前必须确认具体算法，否则容易拿苹果比橘子。 这套框架放到加密Long-Term Holders Sold Into the ETF Bid
Long-term holder supply fell 50,017 BTC, about 13x the 3,700 BTC the ETFs bought.
The buying stopped Thursday. BTC ETFs lost $780.0M over two sessions, and spot sellers beat buyers by $208.7M over three.
Traders kept paying for leverage. Funding rose about a quarter on the week, into the top fifth of its 90-day range.#SKhynixQ3HBM4Earnings $BTC #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议
US Stock Market News Analysis: AI Faith Rebounds Overnight, but Smart Money Is Quietly Switching Tables
Overnight, the three major US stock indices all closed higher. The S&P 500 rose 0.70% to close at 7676.77 points, the Nasdaq rose 0.82%, and the Dow Jones rose 0.28%. On the surface, it looks like AI sentiment is warming up, but underneath it is a low-volume rebound with extreme structural divergence — the Goldman Sachs AI index surged 2.49%, while the S&P components excluding AI only rose 0.02%. All the gains are in AI, and no one cares about the losers.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index led with a 2.82% increase, Nvidia rose 2.40%, Micron rose 2.98%, Lumentum surged over 8%, and SK Hynix rose over 4%.
CoreWeave dipped to $51 at the open but closed with a strong pullback, up 1.76%. Bulls and bears are fiercely battling over AI cloud service providers.
News:
The core catalyst is Anthropic officially submitting its S-1 prospectus, planning to list on Nasdaq under the ticker "ANT." Revenue in the first half of the year was $16.286 billion, with adjusted operating profit turning positive for the first time, but GAAP net loss was 80.7 billion — mainly due to changes in the fair value of convertible bonds, non-cash.
The market selectively focused only on the five words "first operating profit." On the same day, Meta launched up to $95 billion in equity financing, with Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom expressing intentions to subscribe up to $5 billion, partially answering the question of "who will pay for AI capital expenditures." $SOL
Among the seventh batch of key enterprises introduced by the Hong Kong Key Enterprises Office, there is a Nasdaq-listed company called Solana Company, which handles the SOL treasury and validator nodes, with about 2.2 million SOL on its books. It is the only blockchain infrastructure company invited in by them this year, and they also said the Asia-Pacific headquarters is set in Hong Kong.
The cards are good. But SOL is now fluctuating around 100.9, with a 24-hour low touching 99.83, still not standing up. Everyone saw the drop below 100 a couple of days ago, and I was puzzled—after so many positive factors, why is the price still lying down?
Looking at perpetual contracts, it's even clearer: open interest is $3.2 billion, the fee rate is 0.01%, lukewarm. Real money buying hasn't kept up.
What SOL lacks this round is not a story, but someone willing to put up three months' worth of money in one go. Stories can be hyped, but the money isn't there.
Of course, it's quite funny for me, an empty position holder, to be worrying about this here.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Anthropic just filed its IPO documents yesterday, and early this morning it secured a massive $63 billion financing round.
This time the investors are Bank of America, Citibank, Morgan Stanley, and Blackstone, with the funds earmarked for purchasing Broadcom's AI chips and networking equipment.
What's interesting is the financing structure.
Financial institutions purchase the equipment through special purpose vehicles, then lease the computing equipment to $ANTHROPIC, with Broadcom providing residual value guarantees for part of the debt.
This is quite worth studying 🧐
Previously, when discussing the AI arms race, everyone focused on who bought how many GPUs and built how many data centers.
Now even Wall Street banks, private credit institutions, and chip suppliers are deeply involved.
Of course, a large financing scale doesn't necessarily mean the project will be profitable; future equipment utilization, depreciation rates, and leasing cash flows all need to be tested.
I think the AI competition has entered a new phase:
Besides model capabilities, who can secure computing power long-term at a lower cost is becoming another tough battle.
@OKX星球 I have a long position in $BTC with an average price of $83,030. I won't add to the position in the short term; I'm waiting for the right level. Currently, the market is oscillating between $80,133 and $80,849.
A) If the 4H candle closes below $79,775 → below is the ascending trendline at $79,452, which is still rising. In the past 48 hours, there was $3.22 million liquidated near $80,133. Breaking above $80,849 would invalidate this.
B) If the 4H candle closes above $80,849 → first target is $81,000. Breaking below $79,775 would invalidate this.
The $80,133 level has been tested 8 times: held 4 times, broken 2 times, and no reaction 2 times.
Open interest in 24 hours is +4.6%, price +0.85%, indicating new money is entering longs.
If opening a new position, take profit on half first and move stop loss to breakeven.
Which side do you lean towards? #OKXTraderVoices $DOOD These shorts are simply paying interest to the longs.
A nearly 0.7% fee loss over 4 hours, yet the open interest still surged by almost half.
The price just won't break down, and the shorts are stubbornly holding on. The big holders are firmly holding their long positions, completely waiting for the shorts to max out their leverage themselves.
This market setup is clearly a classic short squeeze formation; it's just a matter of when the whales will lift the price and explode it.
#DOOD
$DOOD
👇Good morning brothers! Last night BTC fell below 80,000, and the group chat was full of people crying and panicking. I guess many were scared into hitting the sell button. Early this morning, after checking ETF fund flows, I found it interesting that the Wall Street big shots collectively played a disappearing act in this scenario!
$BTC ETF funds were actually zero yesterday, you read that right—zero inflow and outflow. A few days ago, BlackRock and Fidelity were still aggressively dumping (on the 23rd, 16.94 million ran out), but now at the 80,000 mark, these big players are holding steady, indicating institutions are also waiting and watching, neither bulls nor bears daring to shoot first, all waiting for direction.
Looking at $ETH, it was the only one with inflows. While everyone else was hesitant, Fidelity quietly bought 69.14 million worth, forcibly turning the total pot into a net inflow. A couple of days ago, they were dumping, but now at the 2,300 level, institutions clearly think "the price has dropped enough to be worth it," starting to build positions on the left side. This might be the most positive signal in today's market.
Finally, $SOL looks a bit grim, still seeing outflows. Yesterday's net outflow was 80,900, with Bitwise and Grayscale both exiting. Compared to $ETH's institutional bottom-fishing, $SOL's funding situation remains under pressure, and the selling pressure in the spot market hasn't fully ended.
In summary: big money is extremely picky right now. BTC is stagnant, $SOL is being abandoned, and only $ETH got a sweet treat. Stop guessing blindly by staring at candlesticks; where the money goes is where we should look. Until BTC makes a move, I still insist on staying out and watching the show.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $BTC
In the last bull market, there were a total of 6 major corrections
Each correction ranged between
20%-30%
The last bear market corrected by
77%
This bear market corrected by
53%
Each cycle of bear and bull market fluctuations is getting smaller. With smaller fluctuations, larger leverage is required to achieve previous returns, which is why normal fluctuations now cause long liquidations equal to previous major downturns
According to the pattern of decreasing volatility, the correction range for this bull market is
10%-15%
We are now already at the tail end of this correction BTC just dropped below 80,000, and at the end of the month, over ten billion dollars in options will expire. Looks like this week won't be quiet.
First, looking at the price, BTC briefly fell to 79,321 USD today, then pulled back above 80,000.
The 80,000 level has been contested repeatedly recently, with no one really gaining an advantage.
But I checked the options data for the end of the month and found something else worth noting.
On October 30th, about 11.1 billion USD worth of BTC options will expire, nearly 35% of the open interest in the related options market.
More interestingly, a large number of call options are concentrated around the 95,000 USD strike price, while some statistics show the maximum pain point is near 78,000 USD.
Many people see the maximum pain point at 78,000 and think BTC will definitely be pushed down there.
The maximum pain point is just a theoretical settlement price calculated based on current options positions; it’s not a script pre-written by the main players. Options expiration doesn’t mean 11.1 billion USD will be dumped on the market.
What’s really worth paying attention to is that as expiration approaches, market makers adjusting hedge positions may cause volatility to become more sensitive around certain price levels.
Don’t forget, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision is also this week.
One is a macro expectation, the other is concentrated options expiration; with these two events coinciding, the market may not follow technical chart patterns. #BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ #The October FOMC Rate Decision Will Be Announced This Week
$BTC $XAU The focus this week is the October FOMC. The market has basically priced in no change in rates; the core of the game is how Powell responds to energy inflation and "how long high rates will be maintained."
The Middle East conflict has pushed up oil prices, leaving inflation stickiness unresolved. This is also the root cause why gold and BTC find it difficult to mount a smooth rebound. Geopolitics no longer directly benefit safe-haven assets but suppress risk appetite through crude oil and U.S. Treasury yields.
The decision can be viewed in three stages:
There can be sudden spikes or false breakouts at the moment of the decision, so don’t rush to chase trades; the real tone will be set at the press conference; after sentiment digests, verify whether funds and the market resonate.
Two key levels for BTC:
Support at 80,000 — holding this means consolidation and bottoming; if it breaks down effectively, sentiment will quickly weaken. Resistance lies between 82,000–84,000; only by holding above this, combined with ETF and Treasury yield cooperation, can the recovery have sustainability. For gold, focus on defending the 3,900–3,970 range.
Three simple scenarios to remember:
If the tone is hawkish, the market continues to consolidate, and the rebound is a deleveraging window; if signals of easing inflation are released and yields fall, there is a chance for recovery; if energy inflation risks are emphasized, risk assets will come under pressure again, prioritizing capital preservation.
In terms of operations, reduce exposure, lower leverage, and cut altcoin holdings before the decision. Take profits in batches at resistance levels; no need to preemptively bet when out of position, wait for the decision to land, confirm signals, then buy in batches…#Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ Robinhood's trading business growth is highly likely to continue, but it will shift from "single-engine rapid growth" to "multi-product portfolio growth" (options + stock shares + prediction markets). The company is actively reducing its reliance on pure trading cycles and transforming into a more comprehensive financial services platform.
The biggest variables are: 1) market volatility and retail investor sentiment; 2) regulatory direction of prediction markets. If these two factors align, growth remains considerable; if regulation tightens significantly or the market enters a low volatility period, trading growth will slow noticeably, but the overall company still has buffers like net interest income and subscriptions.Retail investor deposits doubled to 10.7 billion, but the whales quietly stopped! Who is catching the FOMC's flying knife?
According to CryptoQuant data, Binance retail investor deposits doubled from 5.5 billion in April to 10.75 billion, hitting a six-month high; meanwhile, the BTC volume transferred into Binance by whales dropped from 5.9 billion at the end of August to 3.8 billion, a 36% decrease.
Retail investors are desperately moving money to exchanges to bottom-fish, while whales are quietly pulling back. At the same time, Strategy paused BTC purchases for the first time in five weeks, and the spot ETF saw an outflow of 772 million USD over two days. The two most stable marginal buyers have both stopped.
My ETH long position is down -985%, ZEC short -425%, CL short -282%, barely surviving with 1.21U. I'm not holding the position; I'm using this 1.21U to vote for the FOMC—betting that Powell's (Warsh's) words tomorrow night will be tougher than the whales' money.
Do you think retail investors are catching the flying knife this time, or are the whales shaking out the market?
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 The first thing after the US stock market closed, the moods of the two orders were completely different.
$TSLA is right on the line. Loss of 106.59 (−21.43%), mark at 394.19, forced liquidation at 416.23665, with 22.05 in between. The margin ratio rose from 58.61% yesterday to 61.91%, the higher this number, the more dangerous. Last night I only wrote the distance, not the action. After today's opening, this order must have a resolution: close it, I accept this 106 loss; keep it, then I have to clarify the new account for holding it and give an answer within today.
$UNI has been retreating for the fourth day: +83.92% → +75.62% → +54.60% → +38.38%, the amount dropped from 71.92 to 37.94. Yesterday I said I would write a calculable line for it, now I write: the mark returned to 7.35, the remaining half position is fully closed. Less than two points from the current price, this line is tight, and the tightness is intentional—after four consecutive days of retreat, I will no longer give it any leniency.
$DOGE is motionless: +141.02 (+14.53%), mark at 0.0778092, almost the same as yesterday, ignore it.
Three orders: one is the most worry-free, one is retreating, and one is right on the line.
A few words: the biggest fear for a short position is not losing, but giving back a little bit of profit while still thinking you did nothing wrong.
No new positions today, first handle these two clearly.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议