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Google already conducted some financing during the Q2 report and hinted that capital expenditures will "significantly" increase next year, so the shock of "sudden big spending + sudden fundraising" may have already been priced in. Additionally, Brin and Page moved out of California before the January 1, 2026 deadline, so they might not be forced to sell shares to pay California taxes. This allows the market to focus on Google Cloud growth driven by Anthropic. What Meta spent last week: first negative free cash flow since 2012, heavy AI spending, and hints that it will get even heavier. They set up new Class C common stock with no voting rights, effectively a 1-for-2 split, planned to start trading in January 2027. This is to raise external financing for AI development without diluting Zuckerberg's voting control. The market is still worried: under California's Prop 40 billionaire tax, Zuckerberg might be forced to sell shares to pay taxes. Why is Google different? Page bought two properties totaling about $173.4 million in Miami this year; Brin moved to the Nevada side of Lake Tahoe and also bought a house in Miami. Analysts believe investors don't need to worry about "founders selling off to pay taxes" like with Meta. Luria also expects Google to discuss how to regain AI leadership: currently, it ranks second or third in various tracks—chat lags behind ChatGPT, enterprise market lags behind Anthropic and OpenAI, and personal assistants even lag behind Me.$ETH 现报2,327.15 USDT，24小时在2,291.72至2,343.96之间窄幅震荡。1小时MACD在零轴下方金叉、红柱微扩，价格暂守布林带中轨（2,320）上方，但SUPERTREND阻力2,359.78仍压制反弹空间。技术面是典型的“弱修复”，真正决定方向的变量在宏观。 美联储是当前最大的压制源。 10月FOMC按兵不动的概率高达90.6%，但12月加息25bp的概率仍有68.6%。高盛认为本轮加息可能在12月结束，但市场定价明显更鹰——峰值利率隐含约四次加息，远超高盛基准的两次。对ETH这类高久期风险资产而言，只要12月加息的靴子没落地，估值端就持续承压。 但资金面出现了值得细看的背离。 10月至今ETH现货ETF累计净流出已达10.8亿美元，创年内最大单月流出，9月流入几乎全部回吐。然而同一窗口内，链上巨鲸在72小时内增持超16.6万枚ETH（约4.15亿美元），部分地址将ETH从交易所提出转入冷存储，持有意图明确。ETF在卖，巨鲸在买，两者交易场所和持有期限不在同一维度，但至少说明下跌过程中存在真实承接盘，而非单边溃败。 基本面： ETH的“储备资产”属性仍在强$BTC at 2 AM the day after tomorrow (Beijing/Taipei time), the Federal Reserve will announce the October interest rate decision.
I reviewed the last 14 rate decisions on the OKX hourly chart:
⏱ 2 hours after the decision, the average volatility is 2.0%, which is 2.2 times the usual 0.9% for the same period
📏 24 hours after the decision, the average volatility is 4.2%, usually 3.3%
🎲 Direction: 7 times up, 7 times down
Based on the current price of about 80,200, 4.2% means roughly a $3,400 range; last Saturday's low was 79,220, only about $1,000 away from the current price.
Guessing the direction is gambling; leaving room for volatility in advance is the real skill.
Not investment advice | Data: OKX BTC-USDT 1-hour chart, 14 rate decisions from 2025/1 to 2026/9 #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ To put it simply, SK Hynix's Q3 profit hitting a new high is basically a sure bet. The market expects revenue of about 98.2 trillion KRW and operating profit around 77 trillion KRW, with a profit margin close to 78%, significantly higher than Q2's 60.54 trillion. DRAM and NAND prices are rising, HBM is in short supply, making profits easy.
But the real market concern isn't "how much will be earned this time," but "whether such earnings can continue next year." The stock price has pulled back about 52% from the June high, and the P/E ratio is compressed to around 3 times, indicating that investors are doubting sustainability.
The biggest crack is in HBM4: mass production has started, but shipments haven't met initial expectations, and Nvidia's Rubin platform has been delayed; meanwhile, Samsung's HBM revenue has surpassed SK Hynix's, with SK's share sliding from 58% to 50%. Therefore, the earnings call is more important than the profit figures, focusing on three things: HBM4 shipment pace and Q4 pricing, whether long-term contract orders have increased, and whether shareholder returns will be further enhanced (40 trillion KRW has already been repurchased, with possible additional buybacks).
In short: the new profit high is very likely to be realized, but the trading value of this earnings report lies not in the 77 trillion figure, but in management's guidance on HBM4 ramp-up, long-term contract locking, and shareholder returns. The numbers are the rearview mirror; the guidance is the steering wheel.ASTS is taking on a tough challenge!
What attracts me to ASTS is the direct connection of ordinary phones to satellites. In remote areas, at sea, and other places with weak ground networks, there is a very real need for connectivity.
With partners like AT&T, Verizon, and Vodafone, it has channels to enter the existing mobile user market. Next, the most anticipated developments are the continuous launch of satellites, longer coverage times, and increased real paid revenue.
The company's current goal is to provide initial intermittent coverage in five markets by the end of 2026. How far the service can go afterward depends on more satellite deployments, network integration, and licensing progress.
This year, ASTS has undergone a brutal adjustment; from its peak until now, the stock price has dropped to one-third. So the risks must also be considered: the biggest competitive pressure comes from Starlink's entry, with Musk's ambitions exerting crushing pressure on ASTS's market share. Additionally, launch delays and ongoing financing causing share dilution pose certain risks. If progress falls significantly short of expectations, a downside scenario of $20–30 must also be considered.
By the end of 2027, the first target is $50–60; if launches go smoothly and paid services scale faster, then $60–80.
The direction of direct phone connection is indeed promising, but the key going forward is how much ASTS can turn cooperation and technological progress into sustained revenue. The range in the chart is a personal estimate and will be adjusted with actual progress.
$ASTS SolvBTC.CORE enters Saudi Arabia? Unveiling the real players behind Islamic finance compliance
There are market rumors that SolvBTC.CORE is entering Saudi Arabia, with many interpretations directly assuming Saudi capital is entering CORE. Let's break down the real players behind this. This product is jointly launched by Solv Protocol + Nawa Finance, deployed on the Core blockchain, and the product name is SolvBTC.CORE. The Islamic finance compliance certificate is issued by the Malaysian institution Amanie Advisors, which has an office in Dubai and is not a Saudi local regulatory or official body. The product design follows Islamic finance rules, removing the traditional lending interest model, adapting to the funding needs of Muslims in the Gulf region, with target markets including Saudi Arabia and the UAE. 1. Solv Protocol: Developer of the underlying BTCFi protocol 2. Nawa Finance: Core ecosystem project responsible for Middle East market operations 3. Core Ventures: Provides only ecosystem-level support, no direct capital investment 4. Amanie Advisors: Third-party religious compliance audit service provider, not a Saudi government department. Important clarification: The product is open for use by Saudi users, which does not mean the Saudi sovereign fund PIF invests in CORE tokens, nor does it mean the Core blockchain has obtained a Saudi regulatory license. It only means the product has obtained third-party Islamic compliance certification, gaining the admission condition to sell to Gulf users. Boss, it seems I haven't seen your view on aave. I want to go all in on this -- the three dragons on-chain: $HYPE contract leader, $UNI spot leader, $AAVE lending leader. These correspond to three huge financial application scenarios. AAVE is in the lending business, earning interest spreads/service fees. Lending is a very traditional business, just on-chain now. You could say it earns hard-earned money, doing the dirty and tiring work, but the risk is extremely high, risking dealing with white powder while earning money from selling cabbages. I have done lending business myself and designed lending products. Crypto loans and mining machine loans started in 2019; I have done this at Anyin. Now we still provide electricity fee loans to miners, which is essentially crypto loans. Lending essentially expands scale under controllable risk management to bring profit. Simply put, you need to pile up the scale of funds, but once the scale grows large, risk rises exponentially, easy to earn small profits but suffer huge losses. Fortunately, we have faith in BTC and are not afraid of coins crashing in hand, so this business can still be done. Traditional finance has bad debt risk, usually when liabilities exceed assets. In AAVE, this is reflected in liquidation shortfalls, and this risk always exists. Besides the business risk of lending itself, there is also operational risk on-chain, such as the $300 million theft incident this year. How to cover this hole remains a problem. Therefore, lending is not a particularly sexy thing. Among the three, AAVE also has the lowest market cap, just over 2 billion. However, AAVE also has new opportunities, such as US stocks on-chain. These high-quality assets will increase pledged inventory but will not change the business model.#AWS算力需求旺盛，亚马逊Q3财报有哪些看点？
Amazon disclosed its Q3 earnings on October 29, with the biggest highlight coming from Jassy's latest statement: AWS compute capacity is sold out for 2026, most of the capacity for 2027 is already booked, and a large number of orders are locked in through 2028, confirming the explosive demand for AI compute power. AWS revenue growth logic remains solid, with institutions forecasting AWS's Q3 growth rate to potentially rise to 41%.
However, the contradiction lies in the company's full-year capital expenditure reaching as high as $220 billion, with large-scale data center construction already causing free cash flow to turn negative. The market's core focus is whether AWS's operating margin can maintain resilience under high investment and management's guidance on next year's capital expenditure. AWS's long-term orders provide a revenue safety cushion, while short-term pressure concentrates on profit and cash flow consumption caused by capital investment.The Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting this week does not have a direct impact on Bitcoin; the real focus is on how the post-meeting statement sets the tone for December. According to CME FedWatch data as of yesterday, the market prices in about a 91% probability of no change in October, but the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in December has climbed above 68%, with some estimates nearing 80%. Therefore, this is not pricing in the end of tightening, but rather a pause now with a possible hike again in December. The Fed is more likely to take a hawkish pause this time, buying time for an observation window while keeping the option to tighten further in December, allowing flexibility. The main point is that inflation data does not provide a reason to ease; the University of Michigan's October survey shows long-term inflation expectations at 3.5%, higher than comparable readings in 2019 and 2024, while the one-year expectation is 4.7%, also not low. The survey lists 2025 tariffs and 2026 energy shocks as core drivers of inflation. Before the Fed meeting, the statistical basis supporting inflation judgments is incomplete, and no one dares to trade on inflation falling as a fact. Therefore, the interest rate environment Bitcoin faces remains tight. Prices have already reflected this in advance; recently, Bitcoin repeatedly fell below $80,000 and even seems unable to hold that level. ETF funds are also wavering, with a net outflow of about $773 million on October 22 and 23 combined, barely maintaining a net inflow for the week thanks to inflows in the early days. $BTC At this point, the actions of treasury companies are also worth watching. Strategy last week temporarilyHynix's earnings report is out today, and the three storage coins are actually talking about three different things
$SNDK 1237, SanDisk makes NAND flash 💾
AI servers require large flash storage, driving demand for NAND and enterprise SSDs. SanDisk's products focus on this area, and 1237 follows the sector sentiment. After Hynix's earnings report, the storage market outlook will become clear. NAND and HBM are two different segments, so don't mix them up.
$xMU 890, Micron makes DRAM and HBM 🧠
Micron's main business is memory, and HBM high-bandwidth memory is targeting AI server customers. 890 is directly tied to the spot cycle, with price fluctuations following memory prices. After Hynix's HBM4 orders and inventory are released, Micron's position should be compared accordingly.
$SLX 0.052, the rental income logic is opposite to spot 🏭
Solstice splits long-term wafer fab usage rights into on-chain shares and collects rent quarterly. The rent is contractually fixed and does not fluctuate daily with chip spot prices. When the earnings report causes sector volatility today, it bounces a bit, but buyers are aiming for long-term rental income.
This article is for market analysis only and does not constitute investment advice.
#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ I finished reviewing Strategy's 8-K from yesterday; last week it didn't buy a single Bitcoin.
But the money wasn't idle. It used over 200 million USD from its cash on hand to buy back its own STRC preferred shares, roughly at 99 USD per share. After this spending, the freely available cash left is 240 million, while the large remaining sum is specifically reserved for paying dividends and interest, not for other uses.
At first, I thought it stopped buying because it was bearish. Then I checked Strive's announcement from the same day; they added over six thousand coins at an average price of 83,000 USD roughly the same week, and they still hold 500,000 shares of Strategy's STRC, which at the reported fair value also comes to a bit over 99 USD per share.
Here's what I concluded: no common shares were sold this week, no new money came in, Strategy first used idle cash to keep STRC around 99, and buying coins will have to wait for the next financing round. At this morning's price just over 80,000, their coin holdings still show an unrealized gain of about 4 billion USD, so there's no rush.
Next Monday they will issue another announcement as usual; if they still haven't bought a single coin and continue repurchasing STRC, this judgment stands; if they start buying directly, I'll come back and admit I was wrong. #Strategy财报前瞻：BTC账面收益大幅反弹 This news, in my view, aligns with the trend of stablecoin applications and leans towards positive sentiment, but it is not yet regulatory approval. The French Ministry of Finance, AMF, the Bank of France, and ACPR, in their MiCA revision opinions, advocate conditionally allowing platforms and other third parties to reward stablecoin holders, opposing the extension of the interest ban to staking and lending.
I follow three rules for trends: watch the direction, don't guess turning points — regulatory bodies proposing open space helps ease policy anxiety in the stablecoin sector; watch the boundaries, not just the headlines — conditional allowance does not equal full liberalization, and it cannot be directly inferred that reward services will become widespread; watch for confirmation, don't rush expectations — currently, these are just revision opinions, and I focus more on whether subsequent rules can connect, rather than how much buzz the news generates.
Trends are the best friend; I will continue to monitor the revision texts and reward boundaries, and not take a single opinion as trend confirmation. #谷歌云业务增长82%，AI投入回报如何？ Don't rush to blame the "culprit" yet. This wave is more like several hands pushing the table at the same time; the soup spilled, and you can't blame just one person.
First, ETF buying is cooling down. On October 22 and 23, the US spot ETF saw a net outflow of about $773 million over two days, indicating that incremental funds have indeed weakened. But since the US stock market is closed on weekends, it wasn't the weekend that directly smashed the market; it just lowered the emotional baseline.
Second, macro funds are cautious. The Middle East situation, high oil prices, and concerns about AI returns are already weighing on risk assets; with the FOMC meeting this week, no one wants to heavily bet before the interest rate decision.
Third, the French bond market and high oil prices are amplifying volatility. When the French bond market moves, global risk aversion heats up, and Bitcoin gets sold off accordingly; oil prices are supported by Middle East supply risks, with both factors applying pressure together.
What does this mean for Bitcoin? Don't get hung up on which candlestick caused the drop; focus on support levels. 79,160 has already broken below the 80,000 psychological barrier, around 81,000 is short-term resistance, and 79,000 is the must-hold line for bulls; if that fails, the next stop is 78,000.
The table is being shaken by everyone together, and the orders are waiting to come out. $BTC $SOL #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ #中东原油运输恢复，油价为何仍居高位？ Target block time about 200 milliseconds, no new coin issuance; CZ dropped the phrase "Multiple chains, one coin." I'll take $BNB's "dual-chain shared" approach as a roadmap for now.
BNB Chain is pushing a chain temporarily called New L1, running parallel to BSC without replacement.
Design goals are about 200 milliseconds block time, about 20 milliseconds pre-confirmation, with sequential finality approaching sub-second.
BNB continues to serve as gas, staking, and governance token, no new coin issuance; the native bridge is still in development.
The official stance is that the internal devnet is already running, public testnet is targeted for the end of this year, and mainnet is aimed for early 2027.
On 10/25, CZ replied with "Multiple chains, one coin."
OKX is around 745.5 (24h high about 747.6 / low about 732.3), after bouncing from about 732 back to around 745 on the 4H chart.
Believing "no new coin issuance" is more realistic than just shouting about speed, and more skeptical that the millisecond figures are still on paper with no public environment delivery yet.
Not convinced that the narrative of "dual chains" has been fully priced in near 745.
First watch for support around 732–740, a rebound to about 748, and if 4H closes below about 732, then down to about 720.
Do you trust that sharing BNB can stack demand, or do you think the price is just noise before the mainnet lands?
$BNB $BTC I don't know what those who bottomed out together at 60,000 are panicking about now? First, look at the main force cost. The main force cost is around 65,000. Now at 80,000, the increase is only about 20%. Would the main force sell after making 20% profit? Second, look at the trapped positions. Those who didn't clear their positions even when it dropped to 60,000, would they clear them when it rises to 80,000? These are all long-term chips, totally unrealistic. Third, look at the catch-up drop theory. According to BTC's historical behavior, it's already good if it doesn't follow the drop, let alone catch-up drop? If it really falls, it would definitely be the first to finish falling. Fourth, look at the cycle comparison. AI has been rising for so long, BTC has been in a bear market for more than a year. This wave has only risen 20%, I really can't see where the fear point is. If you can't hold even after bottoming at 60,000 and only rising 20%, then what exactly should you do in this market? #闪迪存储业务高增长能否延续？
SanDisk's earnings report will most likely look "very good," but the stock price may not "respond well."
The $93.9 billion long-term contract locks in volume and price floors, and the KV cache demand from AI inference provides real structural growth for enterprise SSDs—high growth can continue, and this is backed by contracts, not just storytelling.
However, the market is currently pricing not the Q1 EPS of $45, but how much upside remains in this cycle after new NAND capacity is released in 2027.
Fundamentals are pressing the accelerator, the stock price is hitting the brakes, and the earnings night will reveal which side eases first.$BTC
Reviewing the historical ledger: In the last bull market, there were six notable pullbacks, each mostly retracing 20% to 30%; the deepest drop in the last bear market was 77%, while this bear market has seen a pullback of about 53%.
The volatility between bull and bear markets is narrowing step by step, which is a clear sign.
With smaller volatility, to maintain past returns, leverage naturally needs to increase, so what now seems like ordinary fluctuations can trigger the same volume of long liquidations that only occurred during past major crashes.
Following this convergence pace, the correction in this bull market will most likely fall within the 10%–15% range.
The current pullback is nearing its end, so don’t apply old volatility patterns to new market conditions. #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ 1$BTC From a morphological perspective, this shape is called a bull flag (not a bear flag 😂)
2 From a liquidity perspective, the long liquidity below has been completely cleared, and the lower the price, the smaller the liquidation volume. Even if the main force continues to sweep downward, the cost-performance ratio is not high; meanwhile, above, there is plenty of short liquidity left. After the consolidation is complete, it will all become fuel for the rise.
3 From the order flow perspective, as the downtrend continues, the short power (negative delta and volume) is clearly decreasing. When the short momentum is exhausted to less than the long momentum, the trend should reverse.
You may choose not to go long, but you shouldn’t go short anymore (except intraday), it’s really not worth it 😂#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Bitcoin is fluctuating around $80,000 with little overall change, having previously dipped to around $79,300. Ethereum is hovering above $2,300. Recently, there has been a net outflow from the US Bitcoin spot ETF, and some liquidation occurred over the weekend.
The transmission logic is quite clear:
When global geopolitical risks (related to the Middle East and Iran) push up oil prices and risk aversion rises, risk assets generally come under pressure, and cryptocurrencies, as highly volatile assets, are often the first to be reduced. When oil prices fall slightly and US tech stocks improve sentiment due to the Anthropic IPO, Bitcoin stabilizes.
The Federal Reserve's decision this week is the core variable. If interest rates remain unchanged with a hawkish tone, the US dollar and Treasury yields will strengthen, directly compressing risk appetite and liquidity for cryptocurrencies; conversely, if there is an indication of future easing, sentiment may improve.
Currently, the market is pricing in a "wait and see" approach, so trading volume in the crypto space is weak and ETF funds are hesitant.
In simple terms: geopolitical risks remain, the Fed decision is imminent, and the crypto market in the short term behaves more like a risk asset following US tech stock sentiment and dollar liquidity rather than an independent trend #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $BTC $BTC
Coinbase's co-CEO of institutional business boldly claims that the second wave of institutional funds is entering Bitcoin. My first reaction is here we go again. This has been said from last year into this year, and every time after this is said, the price dips first.
Currently BTC is at 80289, with a 24-hour low of 79377, truly breaking below 80,000. On OKX, BTC perpetual positions still hold $2.56 billion, volume hasn't decreased. The money is in the market, but the price can't be pushed up; I generally interpret this combination as someone quietly selling above 80,000.
Moody's has also listed a crypto market crash among the most likely economic shocks in the next 18 months. These two opposing pieces of news came less than two hours apart. When news conflicts, I trust neither and only look at positions and price.
At this point, I neither add longs nor open shorts; I'll wait for 80,000 to hold steady for a week before deciding.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Don't treat the unlock calendar as a price prediction chart; treat it as the starting point for risk analysis.This divergence between the “major investor subscription positive” and the “stock price decline” stems from a core reason: the market does not see this as a “positive,” but rather as a warning sign — Meta’s “cash machine” has stopped, forcing it to finance an endless AI arms race by diluting equity.
💸 Core negative: From “money printer” to “money shredder,” equity dilution is a direct pain
This is the most direct and surface-level negative. Meta plans to raise up to $95 billion through a public offering of approximately $35 billion in common and preferred stock, plus a market issuance plan of up to $60 billion. Among this, the public offering of Class A common stock alone involves $22.5 billion, causing immediate and significant dilution of existing shareholders’ equity.
A deeper change is that Meta is raising funds through new stock issuance for the first time since 2013. Over the past decade, it has been a “cash machine” that repurchased shares and reduced the number of outstanding shares. Now, it needs to sell stock to raise money, and this reversal itself strongly contradicts the narrative that “AI investment can self-sustain.”
🩸 Fundamental contradiction: Free cash flow turns negative for the first time, capital expenditures out of control
Equity dilution is just the surface; what truly unsettles the market is the financial reality behind it.
Meta’s free cash flow in Q3 recorded a negative $2.12 billion, marking the first quarterly negative free cash flow in over a decade. In the same period last year, this figure was a positive $10.63 billion.
The culprit behind this reversal is runaway capital expenditure. Meta’s Q3 capital spending hit a record approximately $35 billion, exceeding the operating cash flow of about $32.8 billion for the same period. Meanwhile, the company raised the lower bound of its 2026 full-year capital expenditure guidance from $130 billion to $135 billion, keeping the upper bound at $145 billion. The total committed future spending is as high as approximately $825 billion, mainly for data centers and AI infrastructure.
When capital expenditures start to consume operating cash flow, the model of “supporting AI dreams with own cash” can no longer be sustained, and the shift in financing methods forces the market to reassess its valuation basis.
🔄 Questioned “cross-financing”: Chip giants’ subscription — endorsement or hidden risk?
NVIDIA, AMD, and Broadcom intend to subscribe to up to $5 billion of Class A common stock, which on the surface is a strong endorsement of Meta’s AI strategy, but in the market’s eyes, it creates a troubling “capital closed loop.”
The logic chain is this: chip suppliers (like NVIDIA) invest to help their major customer (Meta) buy their own chips. This “supplier funding customer expansion” model intensifies market concerns about “cross-flow” and “circular financing” of AI industry capital. It implies a possibility: if AI end-user demand were truly strong enough, why would chip giants need to step in personally to provide capital for their customers’ expansion? Some investors interpret this as indirect evidence of insufficient confidence in real demand within the industry.
💎 Summary
Meta’s stock price decline does not mean the market rejects AI’s long-term direction, but rather refuses to pay for a model that “fills cash flow gaps by diluting equity.”
The $5 billion subscription intention, compared to the $95 billion total financing and already negative free cash flow, carries a signal significance far greater than actual support. The market is expressing a clear doubt through the decline: when a company needs to sell stock to sustain its core strategic investment, how far is it really from the day when AI investment generates sustainable positive returns? #微软Azure增长43%，AI商业化能否提速？
Microsoft released its earnings report on the 28th, and I directly bet on No, wagering it will miss expectations. Currently, 78% of the market is betting Yes, but I always feel that a one-sided frenzy is most prone to backfire.
The logic behind betting against it is simple: the margin for error is too low.
Last quarter, Azure grew 43%, and Wall Street has now pushed that estimate above 45%. This means that even if Microsoft delivers a passing grade, as long as it’s not perfect, capital will vote with its feet. Expectations are too high; once all the good news is priced in, it turns bearish.
Moreover, AI is extremely capital-intensive. This quarter’s capital expenditure is expected to exceed $50 billion, with over $200 billion for the full year. Money is being poured in, but gross margins are being dragged down. The market has no patience for long-term stories; if cash flow is swallowed by infrastructure, the stock price definitely won’t hold up.
Finally, although Copilot has sold 30 million seats, the actual incremental monetization remains questionable.
In short, my bet on No is that even a slight flaw in this earnings report will trigger a sell-off, aiming to capitalize on the expectation gap and see who gets proven wrong on the 28th.
@OKX星球 10月初还只囤了809万美元山寨币的地址，如今总投入已滚到1079万美元，账面却倒亏190.4万美元😬 更耐人寻味的是，这位玩家近10天又追加了270万美元，越亏越买，这种“逆势加仓”的姿态，恰恰是当下山寨币市场最值得拆解的一面镜子。 先看持仓结构。$ZRO 是绝对重仓：255万枚，买入均价2.08美元，单币浮亏已达97万美元，几乎占了总亏损的一半。$WLD 持有630万枚，成本0.5189美元，浮亏56.8万美元；$BAT 577万枚，成本0.1981美元，浮亏28.8万美元；$CHIP 2000万枚，成本0.04928美元，浮亏7.7万美元。四个标的全部飘绿，没有一个例外。 这组数据最有价值的地方，不是亏损本身，而是加仓节奏与价格走势的背离。如果山寨币真的在筑底，逆势加仓是勇气；但如果这只是下跌中继，追加的270万美元就是在放大同一个错误。关键在于：这位玩家买的不是单一叙事，而是$ZRO 的跨链互操作、$WLD 的身份叙事、$BAT 的老牌广告公链、$CHIP 的小市值博弈——四个方向几乎不相关，却同步亏损，说明问题不在选币，而在beta。 换句话说，这不是某个项目的基本面崩塌，#BTC现货ETF资金反复, can the market buying power stabilize? From a macro perspective, the Federal Reserve is about to hold the FOMC meeting, inflation pressure remains strong, and the high interest rate sword is still hanging overhead. The BTC market is currently struggling to hold at the 80,000 level. If BTC fails to hold and breaks down, high Beta assets like ETH will definitely fall even harder.The block capacity differences across different chains are huge, essentially caused by different design goals, consensus mechanisms, economic models, and performance trade-offs. It can be viewed from several dimensions: 1. Different design goals: "global settlement layer" or "high-frequency application chain" - Bitcoin - Positioning: decentralized electronic cash + store of value - Prioritizes security and long-term verifiability over high throughput - Block capacity is conservatively maintained long-term (around 1MB), slow block time (10 minutes) - Cost: low throughput, high latency - Benefit: low full node threshold, conducive to decentralization - Ethereum - Positioning: world computer / smart contract platform - Needs to support complex contracts while controlling state bloat - Uses Gas Limit to indirectly restrict block capacity, rather than simply limiting byte size - Scales through Layer2 (Rollup), rather than blindly increasing single block capacity - High-performance chains like Solana, Sui, etc. - Positioning: high throughput, low latency application chains - High hardware requirements, greater risk of node centralization - Both block capacity and block frequency are very high, pursuing extreme TPS 2. Consensus mechanism determines "how much data can be packed" - PoW (Bitcoin, early Ethereum) - Block time is unstable, propagation delay sensitive - Large blocks → slow propagation → increased fork rate $BTC currently shows a fairly typical pattern of price losing a key level, but with severe internal divergence in capital and leverage. As of the morning of October 27, 2026, BTC is quoted around $79,760–$79,861, down about 0.6% in 24 hours, with the $80,000 whole number level broken.
💸 Capital flow: structural divergence is prominent
1. Retail is rushing in, whales are withdrawing (the most notable signal)
Binance platform data shows that in the past 30 days, the cumulative scale of retail transferring BTC to exchanges rose from $5.5 billion to $10.75 billion, nearly doubling and hitting a 6-month high; meanwhile, whale (large holder) inflows have declined for nearly two consecutive months. Large retail inflows usually indicate potential selling pressure accumulation, while whales holding back reflects that big money is not in a hurry to add positions above 80,000.
2. ETF funds: short-term outflow vs. weekly positive
Short-term bearish: On October 27 alone, BTC ETF net outflow was 2,123 BTC (about $169 million); last week (22–23) also saw continuous net outflows (single-day peak reached $636 million).
But looking at the weekly scale, the previous week still recorded about $301 million in weekly net inflow for ETFs, and the cumulative ETF flow in 2026 once again turned positive. Daily outflows seem more like short-term profit-taking or portfolio adjustment, not yet evolving into a trend exit.
Upside target: 81,000–82,000
Downside target: 78,000–79,000
Only after holding above 80,500 can we look at 81,000 "I don't guess the direction, I just list conditions—replace emotions with three ifs."
$DOGE 50x short, entry at 0.07969, target at 0.07769, +125.48%, down 2.5097%.
If it falls back below 0.0770 → this retracement ends, but don't be happy—it is still well above the previous low of 0.07655. It's just stopping the bleeding, not a recovery.
If it stands back above 0.0785 → the tolerance drops from about 2.58% to around 1.5%. Immediately lock in the major position—DOGE's normal volatility can take you out in one move.
If it continues to grind around 0.0777 → like these 59 minutes, the rhythm resets, and tolerance is repeatedly consumed. Then lock in the major position, leaving only a watch position.
But there is one condition above all the "ifs": watch BTC, not DOGE. BTC is currently at 80120, tolerance 0.2865%—wherever it goes, DOGE will follow. Watch BTC at 80349.5, that is the death line shared by both orders. $BTC $ETH #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 "Arranging every screenshot of $SNDK along the timeline explains the situation better than any analysis."
10/25 03:30 — Short, entered at 1264.2, +186.28%, tolerance 2.55%
10/25 22:22 — Short, +127.55%, tolerance 1.73%
10/26 05:57 — Short, +68.81%, tolerance 0.93%
10/26 21:30 — US stock market opens, gap up
10/27 07:54 — Long, entered at 1264.1, +47.46%, tolerance 0.63%
It dropped from 186.28% all the way down to 68.81%, five sampling points, zero recovery. Then at the open, it completed the move.
Now you are at 1264.1—just 0.1 away from that short entry price—reversing to long.
This is the fourth time tonight reversing at the same price level (SOL 101.08/101.07, PEPE 4409/4408, ETH longs and shorts coexist, now SNDK 1264.2/1264.1).
But this time there is a new fact: the US stock market has already opened, and the spot anchor is back. Now you are going long following the real price, no longer "unanchored drift". $BTC $ETH #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 12-hour liquidation pain points update! Overview of key long and short pressure levels
📊 Long liquidation pain points
✅ BTC: Long pain point at 79546.71, corresponding liquidation volume 100 million, -0.72% from current price
✅ ETH: Long pain point at 2288.48, corresponding liquidation volume 20.0969 million, -1.55% from current price
✅ SOL: Long pain point at 99.47, corresponding liquidation volume 2.762 million, -1.42% from current price
📊 Short liquidation pain points
✅ BTC: Current price 80125.6, short pain point at 81139.44, corresponding liquidation volume 82.6136 million, +1.27% distance
✅ ETH: Current price 2324.56, short pain point at 2354.79, corresponding liquidation volume 15.2946 million, +1.30% distance
✅ SOL: Current price 100.9, short pain point at 101.44, corresponding liquidation volume 3.8381 million, +0.54% distance
Core
There is a concentration of chips both above and below. A slight downward pullback can touch the long concentrated liquidation zone; a slight upward rally will hit the short bulk stop-loss positions.
The dense chips on both sides mean that short-term price can easily spike back and forth within this range, sweeping orders in both directions. Term Structure Radar
$BTC marked positive spread with a significant shrinkage in the best bid-ask spread. Near-month annualized +21.9%, far-month annualized +5.91%, near end is more expensive; marked near-far spread +2.23%, best bid-ask spread for buy near sell far +0.96%. Marked looks good, best bid-ask spread is average.
$ETH best bid-ask positive spread corresponds to a very small scale. Buy near sell far bid-ask spread +0.72%, best bid-ask pair scale about 2 dollars; at a scale of 10,000, this only covers about 0.02%. Capacity limited, term signal is more for display.
$SOL marked spread is positive, but the best bid-ask for buy near sell far is inverted. Near-month annualized +9.84%, far-month annualized +0.48%, near end is more expensive; marked near-far spread +0.11%, best bid-ask spread for buy near sell far -1.1%. Inversion means the actual marked spread cannot be obtained.If one day, Bitcoin completely loses consensus due to quantum cryptography flaws and its trillion-dollar market value evaporates, the vast majority of funds will not directly flow into STRK; only a small portion of risk-averse capital will choose it. Ultimately, how much it can divert depends on STRK's maturity, liquidity, and competitive position in the sector at that time.
Three-tier scenario simulation (premise: BTC consensus collapse triggered by a quantum security crisis)
Assuming BTC's total market value is estimated at the 2 trillion level
1. Pessimistic scenario: STRK is merely a concept; L1 and full-chain quantum resistance are not fully implemented; unlocking pressure remains; ecosystem is thin. Institutions and long-term reserve funds dare not take heavy positions. Most fleeing funds prioritize physical gold, U.S. Treasuries, and cash; the remaining crypto funds disperse into ZEC and other post-quantum assets, stablecoins.
✅ Inflow to STRK: about 1%~3% of total BTC fleeing funds
That is roughly $20 billion to $60 billion. It can only bring pulse-like market moves with limited capacity.
2. Neutral scenario (most aligned with your long-term optimistic view): 2027 node delivery, independent L1 launch, full-chain quantum resistance audited by authoritative cryptographers, STRK20 privacy ecosystem formed, large unlocking cycles completed, sufficient liquidity.
It becomes one of the few native post-quantum base chains in the space suitable for long-term value storage; institutional funds list it as a quantum-secure alternative among crypto assets.
✅ Inflow to STRK: 5%~10% of total BTC fleeing funds
Corresponding to $100 billion to $200 billion. This scale will completely reshape STRK's valuation, upgrading it from a thematic coin to a reserve-type base public chain.
Still, a large amount of funds will go to gold and other post-quantum coins.
3. Extreme ideal scenario: There are almost no other mature native quantum-resistant base public chains in the industry; STRK is the only one with long-term practical validation, combining privacy and quantum resistance, recognized by the market as the new generation security benchmark for digital assets.
✅ Inflow to STRK: upper limit about 15%, very hard to exceed.
That is around $300 billion. It is almost impossible to absorb more than 30% of BTC outflow funds.
Why is it impossible for the majority of the trillion-dollar funds to all flood into STRK? (Key constraints)
1. Institutional funds' first priority is to exit the crypto sector, not just switch coins.
When the belief in Bitcoin as digital gold is shattered by the understanding that "elliptic curve cryptography can be broken by quantum computers," many institutions will directly judge that the entire crypto asset class has cryptographic vulnerabilities. Their first choice is to exit the crypto space and allocate to traditional safe-haven assets like gold and government bonds, rather than switch to another crypto token. This is the largest capital diversion outlet.
2. The post-quantum sector is not limited to STRK alone.
Projects like ZEC are also advancing NIST post-quantum upgrades, and new native quantum-resistant public chains will emerge. Risk-averse funds will diversify allocations and will not bet solely on a single project, naturally diluting STRK's incremental inflows.
3. Token supply, liquidity, and custody compliance have upper limits.
No matter how good the story is, if depth is insufficient, exchange custody support is incomplete, or regulatory doubts exist, large institutional funds cannot enter at scale. Trillion-dollar funds are hard to fit into a relatively small public chain ecosystem.
4. STRK itself carries independent risks and is not a risk-free safe haven.
It faces development delays, governance disputes, audit vulnerabilities, and regulatory risks. Institutions will not simply transfer all reserves previously held in BTC to another crypto project.
5. Existing leverage and liquidation losses.
During BTC consensus collapse, cascading liquidations and margin calls will occur, causing massive market value evaporation. Not all market value becomes "freely transferable active funds." Much value will be wiped out in the panic selling, leaving no funds available to buy STRK.#AWS computing power demand is strong, what are the highlights of Amazon's Q3 earnings report?
Amazon released its Q3 earnings report after market close on October 29. Deutsche Bank expects total revenue of $202.8 billion, with AWS growth accelerating from 37% in Q2 to 41%, Q3 revenue about $46.5 billion, and further rising to 44% in Q4. Jassy himself said that the main AWS capacity for 2026 is already sold out, most of 2027 is booked, and a significant portion of 2028 is also locked in by customers. On the demand side, there really is no shortage.
But what really determines the stock price are the three cost items.
First, depreciation. AWS Q2 depreciation surged 67% year-over-year, far exceeding revenue growth, and about 90 billion in new assets added in the first half of the year have just started to be depreciated. Second, the power bottleneck. A large number of GB300 racks are stuck in transit warehouses "gathering dust" due to insufficient power supply, depreciation continues, but revenue does not come in. Third, cash flow. Q2 free cash flow has already turned negative to -7.6 billion, and Deutsche Bank has raised the 2027 capital expenditure forecast to 330 billion.
Deutsche Bank has already lowered the Q3 AWS operating margin from 39.4% to 37.1%.
Old Mo says: Revenue beating expectations is a given, but whether AWS growth can hold at 42%, whether power idling can be alleviated, and when cash flow will stop falling—if these three issues are not clarified during the call, no matter how good the profit numbers look, it’s all for nothing. $BTC $ETH $ZEC 本期嘉宾：BTC、ETH、ZEC BTC 和 ETH 的散户空头已经占到 68%，ZEC 的散户偏多——但 ZEC 现价上下 3% 里空头却占 74%。 $BTC ｜阻力 80,927.4–81,940.0｜支撑 77,970.8–78,983.3 现价 80,216.1，头顶 0.9%，脚下 1.6%。今早那根砸到 79,700 又拉回来，收了根长下影加多头吞没；现在站在 1H 布林中轨上方 0.1%。 头顶 0.9% 起是 80,927.4–81,940.0 一片，81,139.44 这个空头痛点（8,261 万）落在里头；昨晚那个 80,822.6 就停在这片下面 0.13%，差一点没进去。 脚下 0.8% 是 79,546.71 这座多头痛点（1.01 亿），比头顶那座还厚 22%；昨天上午和今早的两次低点都在它下面，现在才站回来。再往下 1.6% 外才是 77,970.8–78,983.3 那片。 多空比 0.48，空头占 67.6%；现价上下 3% 里空头 58%，比 24 小时前少 1 个点。持仓量比昨天多 4.6%，三币里加得最多。 头顶 0.9% 就到，脚下 0.8%🚀Robinhood revenue surpasses ETH! Three exchanges on Chain, market reactions are polar opposites
$HYPE 76.3 📊
Hyperliquid's self-developed L1 supports the order book, with protocol fees flowing back to token holders. Robinhood Chain's Q1 revenue exceeded Ethereum's, igniting the on-chain trading sector, but HYPE has dropped from 80 to 76.3, and funds have not chosen it. 75 is a key observation point; early bottom-fishing is not recommended.
$ENA 0.208 🚀
The yield protocol surged 8% yesterday. It relies on USDe-collateralized US Treasury yields, trading ahead of rate cut expectations. Today it is consolidating without growth; buyers chasing highs have stopped. The FOMC decision is early tomorrow morning; if the tone is dovish, there is room for a rebound; if hawkish, this 8% gain could easily be given back, so do not chase highs.
$ASTER 0.7 🛰️
Multi-chain contract DEXs are still in a dormant phase. Multiple chains have launched perpetual contracts with complete fee and market-making rebate mechanisms, but trading volume is only in the hundreds of thousands of USD. Robinhood's profit foundation is existing users; these new chain DEXs need major events to attract traffic and break through.
#Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ Ripple has completed the banking license process, but the truly valuable asset is not the stablecoin.
The U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency has officially approved Ripple as a national trust bank, allowing RLUSD to operate under a federally regulated banking platform, and also enabling it to provide digital asset custody services for enterprises.
The timeline is interesting: submitted materials last July, received conditional approval in December, and it took another ten months to become fully licensed. The delays were due to capital, auditing, and operational issues—not the license itself.
And the valuable part isn’t RLUSD — that thing has a market cap just over one billion at best. The real value lies in custody: letting enterprises entrust their coins and private keys to Ripple for safekeeping. This is the traditional custody business that banks have held for years, now taken over by a cross-border payment company.
But why would enterprises trust you? That’s the debt to repay after obtaining the license 😶
$BTC
$ETH
$XRP $WLD is a true contrarian bottom-fishing warrior, the more it gets hit, the more it adds to the position.
In the past ten days, it has aggressively invested another 2.7 million USD, bringing the total position amount directly up to 10.79 million USD.
As a result, not a single altcoin bought has been spared, and the current cumulative unrealized loss has already rushed toward 2 million...Yesterday's surge, $ZEC didn't gain the most, but it brought in the most money.
$BTC and $ETH haven't even reached a single point in open interest. ZEC's open interest increased by eight points with the price rise, and trading volume expanded by 20%. Both are rising, but one just shifted slightly, while the other truly has new positions opening.
By unit price increase, each point ZEC rises brings in new positions an order of magnitude higher than the overall market. This difference isn't just sentiment; there are specific people betting on it.
The shorts are taking a hit. Shorts make up the majority of liquidations in the past 24 hours, with a well-known whale's short position already showing a floating loss of over 20 million USD. The rapid rise owes half the credit to these players.
But it's not cheap anymore. It has more than doubled in three months, up over 100% this year, still about 60% below its all-time high. The reasons for the rise are clear: privacy narrative, mainnet upgrade on November 5th, and the developer toolkit just released.
Today's low was 1,177, high 1,238, trading within this roughly 100-point range. If it breaks below the lower boundary, the money pushed in earlier will likely exit first — that batch of funds is concentrated in the hands of a few. SK Hynix (000660.KS) is currently trading at about 1.277 million KRW, having retraced nearly 60% from its peak, but brokerage target prices generally remain above 3 million KRW, showing significant divergence. Technically, it is in an "oversold but not reversed" state. The stock price plunged 24.3% in one week from 1.681 million KRW, marking the largest weekly drop since 2008. Foreign investors net sold 5.36 trillion KRW in one week, reducing their holding ratio to a four-year low of 48.85%. After completing a repurchase of about 40 trillion KRW on October 21, the support buying disappeared, leading to increased short-term volatility. 74.18% of holders are at a loss, with retail investors who entered at high levels between April and June trapped, creating continuous selling pressure. The news sentiment is sharply divided. Citi expects operating profit of 81.3 trillion KRW in Q3, exceeding market expectations by 8%, maintaining a target price of 3 million KRW and a buy rating, believing the storage upcycle will continue until 2028. However, HBM4 shipments fell short of expectations, with Samsung's HBM market share rising from 21% to 33%, narrowing the gap from 37 percentage points to 17 percentage points. Solidigm's US IPO has been terminated, seen as a signal prioritizing shareholder value, but supply-demand pressure reemerged after the buyback ended. The earnings report on October 28 will also announce shareholder return plans, which is the most critical short-term variable.Defense broken, defense broken! After accumulating points for several months, I checked the airdrop and only a single-digit amount was left 😂
That perpetual exchange which doesn't issue coins but switched to stablecoins, once the airdrop query page opened, the comment section exploded. Someone claiming to be the top rank shared their record: trading points about 396,900, fee contribution over 5,000 USD, lost about 20,000 USD overall, and finally got about 904 stablecoins. Even worse, someone with about 4,000 USD in wear showed only 13.69 received; another who pre-deposited 5,000 and had 8,200 points showed zero directly.
About ten days ago, many praised its decent shutdown, no coin issuance to dump the market. But after the quota was released, the whole network was asking for U compensation, and the official hasn't responded yet. Some have over a hundred wallets holding more than a hundred thousand USD, but the page says no allocation; others who deposited early only got 2.5 coins.
The claim started on November 1 and ends on December 31. The project is about to close, and this account is just written off. In crypto airdrops, the biggest fear is spending time only to find out you just paid a fee.
For beginners, it's recommended to watch more and trade less; when buying coins, only buy $BTC When $ETH rose to 2807, I said that if it couldn't break through 2810-2820, the uptrend would be over. Subsequently, ETH repeatedly tested upward but failed each time, then started to decline. So far, the drop has reached 18.76%. What is the outlook?
The decline starting from 2807 is temporarily seen as a correction for the rise from 1505 to 2807, both belonging to the weekly level. The 2807-2282 range is part or all of the correction.
If 2807-2282 is the entire correction, ETH should quickly break through and stabilize above 2370-2390 and not fall below the green Gann angle line 2/1 afterward.
Otherwise, the rise from 2282 is a rebound, and after the rebound ends, ETH will continue to adjust. The secondary bottom is at 2145-2156 (at the intersection of MA200 and Fibonacci 0.5).
The correction starting from 2807 may end as early as mid-November.
Currently, the secondary bottom is oscillating near 2300.
The ETH/BTC ratio continues to decline, with capital preference shifting to BTC; large on-chain staking lock-up and continuous withdrawals are long-term positives, but spot ETFs continue net outflows, and spot support is weak.
The current price is stuck in the middle of the long-short liquidation range, with long liquidations accumulating below at 2279 and short liquidations above at 2346. High-leverage long positions remain active, and market sentiment is intense.
Wednesday's FOMC decision is the core catalyst. A hawkish stance could break below 2300, easily triggering a long squeeze; if the ETF holds 2280, there is a chance to squeeze shorts and rebound to 2346. #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ It is highly likely to be close to consensus expectations; if HBM4 ramps up smoothly and storage spot prices rise strongly, there is a chance to slightly exceed expectations; if HBM4 continues to be delayed, it is likely to fall short of expectations. In the second quarter, there was already a situation of "record high absolute profit but below consensus expectations," which should be closely watched.【Revenue Soars 1200% in One Year, Anthropic Has Truly Turned AI Business into a Money Printing Machine】
One of the most explosive figures in Anthropic's IPO filing with the U.S. SEC is the approximately 1200% year-over-year revenue growth for the trailing 12 months ending September 2026, while the number of employees only increased by about 170% during the same period. Revenue per employee rose from $1.4 million to over $6.6 million. Products like Claude Code are turning AI demand into real cash, with enterprises willing to pay continuously, which is more convincing than simply boosting user numbers.
However, soaring revenue does not necessarily mean profits will take off as well. In the first half of 2026, $ANTHROPIC's revenue reached $16.3 billion, with compute and infrastructure expenses also hitting about $8.9 billion. The AI business has indeed commercialized successfully, but the more people use the models, the more staggering the compute bills become.
What remains to be seen is whether revenue can continue to grow, whether compute costs can be reduced, and whether customers will cut spending due to competition and price drops. A 1200% growth rate is impressive but cannot be sustained forever. As soon as revenue growth slows and costs cannot be lowered, this money printing machine will face valuation tests. For now, this mainly proves that AI commercial demand is exploding, but it does not directly prove that high valuations are always justified.Many people mistakenly believe that Ripple's application for a banking license is to hype the price of XRP, but in fact, its core goal is to promote its own US dollar stablecoin RLUSD.
Compliance and Trust: By placing RLUSD's reserves under the dual strict supervision of the federal (OCC) and New York State (NYDFS), it can greatly enhance institutional investors' trust in RLUSD.
Federal Reserve Account: After becoming a federally regulated bank, Ripple can even open a master account for its stablecoin reserves directly at the Federal Reserve, which is considered a very high level of security by traditional financial institutions and is its biggest competitive advantage over USDT and USDC.Some mining companies sold all the coins they mined: the narrative of holding coins is fracturing
Here's a small detail many people haven't noticed, but I think it's quite representative.
Bitdeer's weekly report: As of the week of October 16, it mined 294.2 BTC, sold them all, with a net increase of 0, currently holding zero (excluding client custody).
Throwing 294 coins into the market didn't even make a splash; the volume is completely negligible. But the signal is valuable: this company clearly positions itself as a "computing power service and AI computing power operator," not a "Bitcoin-based holder."
Looking back two years ago, the standard script for mining companies was "mine and hoard, wait for the halving to increase prices." Now it's different—computing power can be rented out to AI and HPC, and power resources can directly generate cash flow, so why bear the volatility of coin prices?
This is the opposite path from sellers: one turns the company into Bitcoin, the other turns the mining farm into a computing power sales business. Neither is wrong, but together they indicate one thing: the old consensus that "mining companies are naturally bullish" is loosening.
The impact on price is medium to long term: previously, halving plus mining companies hoarding coins was a dual contraction on the supply side; in the future, that half of hoarding coins may become increasingly unreliable. I'm not bearish writing this, just reminding myself not to take "mining companies will support the bottom" as a default assumption anymore.#SKhynixQ3HBM4Earnings
$SKHY part 2: the Kioxia math 📉
Kioxia fell 89,680 → ~54,300 yen in Q3 (−39.5%). Yen −10% vs won. SK hynix still holds Kioxia convertible bonds, marked to market → est. −15 to −29T KRW loss. Won +12% vs USD also hits its USD cash.
My bridge: net profit ~38–48T vs ~62T needed → ~$4–5 per ADS vs $6.26.
NFA #OKXOutcomes #EarningsSeasonMSCI's Hidden Threat: Someone Might Be "Passively Dumped" on November 30
This topic has low buzz, but I believe it's the most underestimated institutional risk this round.
On October 15, MSCI set a new rule: "Non-operating companies" cannot be included in its Global Investable Market Index, effective at the close on November 30, with the specific list to be released on November 11. What does non-operating mean? It means companies whose assets are mostly Bitcoin and have little main business revenue—yes, I'm pointing at Strategy.
Saylor himself publicly called this rule "discriminatory."
Why am I nervous? Because once kicked out of the index, all passive funds tracking MSCI must mechanically sell MSTR. This isn't selling because of bearish sentiment; it's forced by the ledger, so the selling pressure has nothing to do with the company's fundamentals. And MSTR's stock price, preferred shares (STRC), and even market sentiment toward the "treasury company" sector will be affected.
Saylor stopped buying crypto this week and switched to repurchasing STRC. Does this give you an extra layer of understanding? He's strengthening the capital structure, preparing in advance for the November hurdle.
I can't say for sure it will be kicked out, but I'll be especially alert on November 11. If this bomb explodes, the crypto price may not crash, but MSTR and its partners will shake first.#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ Many people previously said that the mass production of HBM4 meant all the good news was already priced in. However, SK Hynix just started small-batch deliveries in Q2, achieving a quarterly profit of over 60 trillion KRW with a profit margin of 76%. This hardly looks like the good news has been exhausted; clearly, a new profit cycle is just beginning. Now in Q3, HBM4 capacity is officially ramping up, and contract prices for regular DRAM are still rising. Both sides of the business are improving. The small shipment fluctuations from Nvidia's new cards before cannot stop the big trend of profits hitting new highs again. All the holdings are at high prices, and the performance for the next few quarters is basically clear. SK Hynix is pushing profits to historic highs thanks to HBM4, and there really is no doubt about it.$FIL How much does Bitcoin need to break through in USD to truly signal a bull market?
Simply "breaking through a certain integer level" is not enough—Bitcoin has historically spiked to new highs many times and then dropped back, which were short squeezes, not real bulls. A more reliable approach is to divide the "bull arrival" into three stages, considering price + time + capital for triple confirmation.
1. Three-stage confirmation: from "suspected" to "real bull"
🟡 Stage 1: Initial technical bull confirmation (81,000–85,000 USD)
- Key level is the 365-day moving average, currently around 81,000–84,000 USD
- Requirement: weekly close must hold above this moving average, not just daily spikes
- CryptoQuant’s view is clear: historically, BTC bull markets officially start only when price closes above the 365-day MA
- Also must hold 83,000 USD support; breaking below returns to consolidation range
🟠 Stage 2: Trend strengthening (87,000–90,000 USD)
- Break through the 20-month moving average around 87,000 USD, the "turning boundary"
- After holding above, target is 95,000–100,000 USD range
- This stage requires continuous net inflow from ETFs and spot buying to replace contract leverage
🟢 Stage 3: True bull main upward wave (above 126,000 USD)
- Historical high around 126,000 USD in October 2025
- The true "comprehensive bull market" sign: effective breakout of previous high with a retest that holds, accompanied by:
- On-chain MVRV and NUPL staying in bull market range without turning red
- Altcoins generally profitable, market breadth expanding (no longer BTC alone)
- Stablecoin total market cap continuously expanding, ETFs with consecutive weeks of net inflow
2. Why price alone is not enough
Breaking a price level is just a "ticket"; if the following signals are not synchronized, the breakout is likely a fake bull:
Dimension Real Bull Characteristics Fake Breakout Features
Buy-side structure Spot-led + ETF net inflow Mainly relying on contract short squeezes
Retest Higher highs and higher lows Quick drop back after breakout
On-chain NUPL/MVRV turn bull and stay bull Price rises but indicators diverge
Breadth ETH and major coins take over Only BTC rises alone
⚠️ In August 2026 when the price surged to 80,000, analysts warned: short squeezes explain how fast it rose but not whether capital is sustained—without seeing continuous ETF inflows, it’s not a main upward wave.
3. An actionable observation checklist for you
No need to watch the market daily, just monitor these key points:
1. Can the weekly close stay above 83,000 USD (365-day MA) — determines if technical bull is established
2. Can 87,000–90,000 USD hold sideways for more than a week — determines if strengthening is effective
3. Does the pullback hold above previous lows (currently key supports at 78,500/70,000) — determines trend structure
4. ETF net inflow for 2–3 consecutive weeks — determines if incremental capital exists
5. Break above 126,000 previous high and retest holds — determines main upward wave start
4. One-sentence conclusion
- Closing above 83,000 with weekly confirmation → bull market "restarts" signal
- Breaking 90,000 and holding on retest → trend bull credibility is high
- Effective breakout above 126,000 previous high → comprehensive main upward wave confirmed