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Snapshot: October 24-26, 2026. Metrics from different aggregators vary, so I indicate the period and source next to the figures. Uniswap ($UNI) is one of the oldest and most prominent decentralized trading protocols. It is built on an automated market maker (AMM): instead of an order book, users trade against liquidity pools. The main conflict of the project: the product is in demand, but the connection between this success and the UNI token remains indirect. The token is needed for governance, but not for regular trading $XLM
Weaker than XRP, why can't the payment sector have a unified valuation?
In this morning's spot snapshot, XLM's 24-hour price change was -2.78%, ranging from 0.16681 to 0.17248 USDT.
XRP fell 1.46% on the same basis, with XLM experiencing a larger pullback, indicating that similar use cases cannot eliminate differences in supply and liquidity. Industry enthusiasm does not guarantee that each generation of tokens will simultaneously gain demand.
If the relative gap continues to widen, the assumption of a catch-up rally should be lowered; if actual usage increases and the relative price stops falling, then the assessment of recovery should be raised again. #中东原油运输恢复，油价为何仍居高位？ Because there are still uncertainties #CerebrasQ3AIChipOutlook
Q2 BEAT: Core $210M vs $191M +103% YoY, GAAP $180M +70%. But stock -14% after — GAAP loss $450M vs $350M est, OpEx $503M vs $89M YoY (SBC $377M). Q1 also beat $193M vs $174M.
Why YES:
WSE-3 = 58x NVDA B200 wafer = fastest inference. Cloud +281% to $126M. OpenAI $20B 750MW deal + Altman "close partner". Core guide $880-890M FY (was $855M). Backlog $25.4B RPO, cash $8.6B. EPS loss est improved -$0.32→-$
Call: 75% REV BEAT but selloff risk — needs core >$220M + GM >40% The Federal Reserve will decide the day after tomorrow whether to raise interest rates.
But the inflation data they are going to look at this time,
one-third of it was not collected.
Last month, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics was supposed to collect prices for a batch of goods and services. They were supposed to collect 100 items but only got 66.
More than 30% missing.
What about the missing part? They estimate it.
They use prices of similar goods,
use prices from nearby regions to fill in.
So that year-over-year 3.7% inflation figure,
some of it is estimated.
Is it accurate?
The Bureau of Labor Statistics itself doesn’t dare to guarantee,
only said:
There is no evidence of overestimation, nor evidence of underestimation.
But the Fed can’t wait, and won’t wait.
On the 28th, they will announce as scheduled.
The market is already betting: the probability of a rate hike in December is close to 80%.
Bitcoin is now at $80,185, right above 80,000.
Why is this line critical?
Two things happen to converge here:
The average cost of ETF buyers is 81,300.
The 50-day moving average is also here.
A bunch of people’s costs are all piled up at this level.
Last time CPI was released, Bitcoin dropped from 83,800 to below 82,000 within a few hours.
My attitude:
To put it simply:
If inflation is high, you know how to hedge.
If the numbers are inaccurate, you don’t even know where to hedge.
80,000, see you on the 28th. Expected Value Hunter | Today's Expected Value October 26, 2026 80,000, touched again. On Monday during the Asian session, BTC dipped to a low of 79,330, approaching the lowest level since mid-September. Then it bounced back again to 80,320, just like it has done every time in the past nine days. If you opened the market today and saw the 80,000 figure tested countless times, you probably wouldn't feel much anymore. It's not numbness, it's fatigue. Dip down, pull back, dip down, pull back. Every time it feels like a direction is about to be chosen, but every time it isn't. But today, one thing is different from the past few days: the two groups driving this market are moving in opposite directions. First, let's look at the data on Binance. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost released a flow report today, separating retail investors and whales. Over the past 30 days, the amount of BTC transferred by retail investors to Binance rose from $5.5 billion to $10.75 billion, nearly doubling and hitting about a six-month high. Transferring coins to exchanges is usually not a buy signal. Darkfost's judgment is straightforward: retail investors are treating this round of rebound as an "exit window," closing positions at prices they find more acceptable to relieve previously accumulated psychological pressure. Meanwhile, whale deposits to Binance dropped from $5.9 billion at the end of August to $3.8 billion, a decline of about 36%, continuing a nearly two-month downward trend. Darkfost's conclusion is: no signs yet ofFinally seeing hope again! The market turnaround might really be coming! 🌈
The current market is becoming increasingly clear: the linkage between crude oil prices, global stock markets, and cryptocurrencies is strengthening.
🛢️ Oil prices falling gives risk assets a chance to breathe.
On October 26, international oil prices retreated from recent highs, and the market is also watching whether US-Iran diplomatic talks can make progress. However, shipping security in the Strait of Hormuz remains uncertain, oil prices are still high, and the subsequent trend depends on how the situation develops. Meanwhile, global stock markets have slightly rebounded, and market risk appetite has improved.
For the crypto market, if oil prices can continue to decline, easing inflationary pressure and reducing concerns about further interest rate hikes, then risk assets like BTC, ETH have a chance to perform better.
Of course, a drop in oil prices does not mean a bull market will start immediately; next, we need to watch capital flows, trading volume, and whether key price levels cooperate.
ꉂ(ˊᗜˋ*)
₿ $BTC Bitcoin
BTC has experienced a round of correction recently, and the market is currently searching for a new direction. The fall in oil prices does help ease macro pressure, but for Bitcoin to truly strengthen, continuous capital inflow and confirmation of price structure are still needed. £22 billion on-chain? Actually only £50 million
On October 26, UK asset management giant Aviva launched tokenized shares of a pound liquidity fund on XRPL.
The parent fund is about £22 billion, but the actual tokenized initial investment is only £50 million — a 44 times difference.
Aviva uses a "digital twin" structure: only share rights are recorded on-chain, while the underlying holdings, custody, risk control, and regulation all remain in the original system, with assets still at BNY.
It's like our factory didn't change equipment or processes, just added an electronic certificate channel to existing goods: production capacity and yield remain unchanged, what changes is whether the goods can be accepted by the new system.
1. The first step of tokenization is money market funds, not stocks or real estate. Shares are already cash equivalents, and after tokenization they can be settled and used as collateral.
2. "On-chain" is overused. What changes are the issuance, recording, and transfer steps, not moving the asset itself onto the chain.
For friends in finance, how do you judge if a tokenization project is "truly implemented" or just "announced"? What indicators do you look at?On October 26, the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) did something symbolic: it publicly encouraged community banks to consider applying to become payment stablecoin issuers and pointed to the licensing framework of the GENIUS Act. For an insured national bank, the path is to apply through a subsidiary rather than issuing directly from the bank itself. With less than three months remaining until the January 18, 2027 deadline of "no issuance without a license." But the dramatic scene is this: regulators are encouraging banks to enter the market, yet banks are worried about being hollowed out by stablecoins. Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan previously warned that under certain regulatory scenarios, up to $6 trillion, about 30% to 35% of U.S. commercial bank deposits, could flow into stablecoins. The Independent Community Bankers of America (ICBA) provided a more specific estimate: if payment stablecoins become widely adopted, the future loan volume of community banks could decrease by at least $850 billion. The contradictory focus is on "returns." The OCC's final rule retains the core ban on issuers directly paying interest but removes the draft clause that "presumed third-party reward arrangements illegal," replacing it with case-by-case judgments. The banking system's concern is that even if issuers do not directly pay interest, platform and third-party reward programs can still draw deposits away from community banks. The American Bankers Association has quickly criticized the rule. This is not a "positive development," but the beginning of a deposit battle. The OCC's encouraging stance essentially acknowledges that stablecoins have become the U.S."Trading volume 49.2 billion, market cap 2.68 trillion"
Today's overall market numbers are a bit strange.
Total market cap is 2.68 trillion USD, 24-hour spot trading volume is 49.27 billion USD. Calculating turnover rate: 1.84%. Bitcoin trading volume is 16.13 billion, accounting for one-third.
This ratio is relatively low. The normal spot turnover rate in the crypto market is between 3% and 5%, so 1.84% indicates almost no one was trading today.
What’s even stranger is the price reaction. With such low trading volume, the market cap still dropped just over 4%. Among the top 30, 4 rose and 25 fell; SUI fell 3.46%, XMR fell 3.2%, ADA fell 2.91%; only ENA rose 6.43%, the strongest in the market.
On one hand, extremely low trading volume; on the other, a significant drop — these two together have only one explanation: marginal funds are withdrawing, not circulating existing holdings.
The consequences of these two situations are completely different. Circulating holdings means some are selling and some are buying; prices fall but chips don’t disappear. Marginal withdrawal means both buy and sell orders thin out, so prices can be moved with very little money. Today's 4% drop may have used only one-third of the usual funds.
The most dangerous aspect of this structure can be seen in the options market on October 30. That day, 140,844 BTC expired, nominally about 10 billion USD, with the biggest pain point at 78,000. When market depth thins, market makers’ hedging positions are amplified because the same hedge volume causes greater price impact in a thin order book.
And these three days are fully packed: October 28 interest rate decision (market pricing for rate hike probability dropped from 27% to below 15%), October 29 Q3 GDP and PCE, October 30 options settlement.
In other words: the market now is like a spring compressed to the limit, not because of bullish or bearish sentiment, but because no one wants to bet before the events unfold. Low turnover means collective wait-and-see; waiting means reactions will be more concentrated and intense when events land.
Discussion: Does low turnover mean "no one wants to trade" or "no one dares to trade"?
I think it’s the latter, and this difference determines next week’s direction. The former is indifference, prices will slowly drift down; the latter is tension, prices will jump as soon as events happen. Today’s funding rate is still +0.0054%/8h, longs are still paying — someone is waiting, and paying to wait.
Poll: Among the three major events in three days, which do you think is most likely to trigger volatility — A. October 28 interest rate decision; B. October 29 PCE; C. October 30 settlement; D. None, continue grinding.
I choose B. The rate decision is basically priced in, settlement is technical, only PCE is truly unknown.
Not investment advice, risk on yourself. #MarketAnalysis $BTC#RocketLabQ3Neutron
Why YES on Rev:
13/19 beats (68%). Electron 17 contracts Q3, >20 launches yr. SpaceX Q3 +161% $14.6B lifted space. Space Systems mix.
Why NO on Neutron:
First launch slip 2026→2027 — tank redesign, carbon fiber defect. Stock -28% 1M, -33% 6M, $53 off $151 high. Iridium $5.9B deal
Valuation: $31B mcap, P/E N/A, beta 3.19, EPS -$0.37. Avg PT $122 = 130% upside. Cantor Buy.
Call: 75% REV BEAT, 50% EPS — needs >$265M + backlog >$2.5B + Neutron pad Q4 timeline to reclaim $65.#SpaceX业绩大增，与特斯拉合并能否推进？
Musk announced that SpaceX completed $40 billion off-balance-sheet debt financing to buy GPUs, but the pricing has not yet been agreed upon. More awkwardly, xAI's similar operation last year was deemed "invalid" by accountants, and about $13 billion of debt was ultimately brought back on the balance sheet.
AI revenue is indeed exploding: Q3 Super Intelligence segment revenue reached $7.56 billion, a year-over-year increase of 830%, profitable for the first time, already surpassing Starlink. But the faster the computing power expands, the more it relies on this off-balance-sheet structure to maintain its rating.
The problem is that the market is precisely watching whether this money can truly be "off the books." The revenue explosion and financing fragility are currently two sides of the same coin.Core Risk Warnings
1. A volatility compression to 6% has historically ended in explosive moves: a 9-day consolidation box, with the 30-day price spread shrinking from 13% to 6%. Once the direction is chosen, the magnitude could far exceed the $2,100 implied by the current ATR. Avoid heavy directional bets at the end of the compression.
2. 82,700 is the "invalid line" for the medium-term bearish pattern: until the daily close breaks above this area, the objective signal is bearish and range-bound, not a bull market trend. All short-term moving averages are above the price, which is a technical fact that cannot be ignored.
3. ETF "IBIT unipolar inflow" is fragile support: 566 million this week. If IBIT inflows slow or reverse, net inflows across the market will quickly turn negative. The recent 774 million outflow over the past two days has already demonstrated this fragility.
4. The FOMC (10/27–28) is the biggest variable within 48 hours: a pause in October is priced in, but the real risk lies in any hawkish hints from Waller regarding December. If December rate hike expectations strengthen, the lower boundary of the $79,200 box will face a severe test.
5. The "chaotic combination" of $117 oil prices + falling US Treasury yields: the market is pricing in an AI recession rather than oil-driven inflation. Bitcoin has no clear beneficiary path in this combination—oil price gains do not transmit, while weakness in tech stocks drags it down.
6. Divergence between taker sell volume at 0.67 and 67% net long accounts: positions are bullish but actions are selling. If price is resisted near $82,300, passive long covering may turn into selling pressure. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Order placing is exhausting! $247 rolled to $936 in 15 minutes, this bot really knows how to wait 😂
There is a bot specifically trading Bitcoin 15-minute up/down markets. Since last December, it has run about 169,700 markets and accumulated roughly $354,200 in purchases. It doesn't guess price direction; it places buy orders at every cent price point, waiting for people to panic sell recklessly.
Today there was an even crazier window. Someone smashed about $10,000 on a buy order, and the price instantly dropped from around 65 cents to 5 cents. The bot's buy orders were all filled, costing about $247, and settled in 15 minutes for about $936, nearly 3.78 times the cost. Out of 313 days, 213 were profitable, and in the last 30 days it quietly gained about $6,950.
Retail traders rush during those 15 minutes, but the bot waits for your slip-ups. The fastest in this game is often the one with programmed orders.
Newbies are advised to watch more and trade less; when buying coins, only buy $BTC $MSTR MicroStrategy has paused buying coins! Instead, it spent $205 million to repurchase preferred shares. Is the market panicking?
Brothers, MicroStrategy's recent moves are worth paying attention to. Logically, MicroStrategy should continue increasing its $BTC holdings, but this time the capital allocation has changed: it spent $205 million repurchasing its own STRC preferred shares, while only $22 million was spent buying BTC.
The money spent hasn't decreased, but the focus has shifted!
Don't rush to say BTC is too expensive to buy; the key might be the cost of capital. STRC preferred shares have an annual dividend of about 12%, and continuous financing means bearing significant dividend expenses. Repurchasing preferred shares may help control future capital costs and cash flow pressure.
This indicates that MicroStrategy's capital arrangement deserves a fresh look, but we can't conclude that Saylor has completely changed the strategy just because of buying less BTC for a week.
Looking at market performance, BTC has fallen below around $80,000, the FOMC meeting is approaching, risk-off sentiment is rising, and MSTR's stock price is also under pressure.
The real question is: if BTC continues to weaken and MicroStrategy slows its buying pace, can MSTR's valuation premium hold?
Next, focus on three signals: whether BTC can stabilize, whether MicroStrategy will continue buying coins, and the financing and repurchase arrangements of STRC.
Brothers, do you think this is MicroStrategy proactively adjusting its capital structure, or is market pressure starting to show? #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ $ETH #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？
$xMETA Here's a drama from last night. The earnings report came out, revenue blew past expectations, over 40 billion USD, profits steady like an old workhorse. But AI is a bottomless pit that burns money, so they immediately decided to raise 35 billion USD.
Investors calculated: more shares issued, dilution, pre-market sell-off, stock dropped over 4%. Almost losing their minds.
Then a divine reversal happened. Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom—three chip giants—stepped up and said they would put 5 billion USD into buying its stock. Pre-market, the drop of over 4% was pulled up to a 1.12% gain.
My takeaway: the money shortage is fake, but the ranking is real. Among this huge financing, the three hardware giants willing to pay 5 billion to buy in is basically telling you—on the AI chain, no one is helping for free. Its stock price is tied to the crypto nerve; when one side moves, the stocks and tokens on the other side also get unsettled. $xMETA #SoftBankQ2AIReturns
AI goldmine — OpenAI $2.15T gain Q2, $79.6B FV vs $34.6B cost = $45B unrealized. Nvidia exit 32.1M shares $5.83B Oct, Arm + telecom stable. Vision Fund + OpenAI $500B val (was $300B Mar). Final $10B tranche done Oct 1 → total $64.6B = 13% OpenAI.
Valuation: $15.4, $169B mcap, P/E 5.2x, 78% run Sep Q (+best since 2005), now -25% off high. ROE 26%, margin 62%. Debt ¥5T, EUR 405M note redeemed.
Call: 90% BEAT needs >¥3T profit on OpenAI markup + no impairment to hit ¥7,000.Bitcoin will either plunge or surge significantly
After the past two midterm elections, BTC experienced sharp declines:
▪️In the post-election phase of 2018, BTC's maximum drawdown reached -50%
▪️In the post-election phase of 2022, BTC's maximum drawdown reached -25%
The next midterm election is on November 3.
History does not simply repeat itself, but both post-election periods shared the commonality of deep corrections.
Do you think the market will replay this historical scenario after this election?
❗This is only a summary of public historical data and does not constitute any trading advice $ETH $ZEC $SOL Is $BTC Bitcoin saved? Oil prices have started to fall, is a rebound coming? Let's talk about the current trading opportunities.
1. Have you noticed that to trade crypto well, you have to be like a eunuch! Constantly pondering the emperor's will, guessing the next move of King Trump.
2. Over the weekend, US crude oil CL soared to 105, reaching a price Trump couldn't tolerate, so he immediately crashed the market, saying he wouldn't attack Iran today. Oil prices plummeted 5%, and both the crypto market and US stocks finally began to recover.
3. So what will Bitcoin do next? Actually, from Trump's actions above, we already have a conclusion. Trump doesn't ignore the market; if it falls too much, he will back down or soften his stance. So I believe the downside risk is relatively limited, and since there has already been a significant pullback recently, buying on dips can be considered. Those who have bottomed out can wait patiently.
4. I don't know if you've noticed, but recently there have been so many negative factors in the market—US-Iran, Saudi Arabia, Yemen—so many bad news, yet Bitcoin hasn't dropped much. It was around 82,000 before, now 80,000, only about a 2% drop, which is actually a relatively strong signal, at least compared to the US stock market.
5. So now the market is such that despite negative news, it doesn't fall much, or it falls and then rebounds. And what if there is good news later? Just think about it, something big will come! Besides the US-Iran conflict, there might also be positive inflation data. We just need to wait patiently now and pay attention to the strong support around 78,200. Buy when it reaches that level, if not, then forget it.Binance launched 4 TradeFi perpetual contracts all priced in USDT today, with liquidation handled on Binance RCH, and the launch times staggered by 5 minutes each.
EIDOUSDT at 17:00, EQTUSDT at 17:05, STMUSDT at 17:10, ABBVUSDT at 17:15. EIDO and EQT track US and European stock ETFs, STM is STMicroelectronics, ABBV is AbbVie; all four contracts are well-established traditional assets.
This pace is worth noting. Previously, launching a new product required the platform to warm up for several days, but now 4 are queued within 15 minutes, showing the variety pool is expanding faster than user education.
For contract traders, there are three practical impacts. First, liquidity is thinnest in the 15 minutes before opening, spreads and spike risks are high, so avoid rushing in immediately. Second, these assets don’t have the 7×24 sentiment of crypto markets; prices follow US and European trading hours, with possible no movement overnight and gaps at daytime open. Third, USDT pricing means no need to swap coins, but funding rates and margin rules must be reviewed carefully—don’t apply crypto parameters directly.
The platform bringing traditional finance into contracts is essentially competing for a bigger pool. The more varieties, the more stories to tell, but what really determines your profitability are the old questions: position size, leverage, and when not to enter.The biggest buyer didn't buy this week: Strategy spent $205 million elsewhere
The article at dawn said institutional buying couldn't keep up with mining, and by evening there was a ready-made footnote.
According to Monday's SEC filing, Strategy neither bought nor sold a single $BTC last week, nor did it touch the ATM issuance; it spent the entire $204.9 million on repurchasing its own preferred stock STRC, buying back 2.07 million shares in one week. This is the first time it paused after buying coins for four consecutive weeks — the amount spent on buying coins had shrunk from $140 million to below $30 million over the previous three weeks.
The accounting goes like this: since October, Strategy has spent about $664 million on STRC repurchases, only about $72.3 million on buying $BTC, acquiring 851 coins. Holdings remain at 848,517 coins, with an average price of $75,446, current price about $79,980 (Beijing time 22:13), still positive on paper.
Comparison group: in the same week, Strive made its largest coin purchase ever, over $510 million. One paused, one increased — there is significant internal disagreement among institutions about the 80,000 level.
There is a reason for the buyback: STRC once fell below $98 last Monday, under the $100 par value, only recovering above $99 on Friday. Whether to stabilize its own preferred stock first or continue to increase $BTC holdings, Saylor chose the former this week.$CORE The CORE market is still holding on hard, but the number of validator nodes has actually dropped to 16.
The network's security red line is 15; if it drops by one more, it will directly freeze and halt.
The most absurd part is that the official team leading the exit, first withdrawing validator nodes, then flooding the exchange with batches of treasury tokens.
Now mining with nodes can't even cover the data center electricity bills; who can be expected to work for free to keep the ledger?
If the chain really freezes one day, who will redeem the string of code in hand?
#CORE
$CORE
👇#Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ Robinhood will report after the market closes on October 27. Honestly, market expectations for this earnings report are quite high. After all, Q2 numbers were outstanding: revenue surged 32% to 1.31 billion, and net inflows hit a new high of 22 billion USD. But with expectations set so high, Q3 is somewhat "riding a tiger".
The analysis shows two main points of contention: first, trading activity. Q3 saw a choppy market in both US stocks and crypto, so has retail investors' "gambling nature" been suppressed? Whether trading volume and commission income can sustain the baseline is a big test. Second, the growth of new business. Relying solely on the old core business is no longer enough; it depends on whether new products like derivatives and retirement accounts can actually monetize.
My personal view is that $HOOD is currently going through a "breaking out of the circle" growing pain phase. The inflow volume shows the user base is solid, but future revenue can't just rely on luck (dependence on trading volume). If this earnings report can prove that new business contributes substantially, then the stock price will have a new story to tell. #AAOIQ3800GOutlook
Guide $255-290M / $0.11-0.26 EPS. Q2 BEAT: $191.9M vs $190.5M, EPS $0.06 vs $0.01 (+0.22 YoY). 5th record Qtr.
Why YES:
800G transceiver ramp, 1.6T orders, TX fab expansion. Datacenter AI optics = Nvidia rack boom. Rev 5Qs up. Gross margin improving.
Valuation: $102, $5.7B mcap, 52W $18.5-$233.7, -30% off high, RSI 30 oversold, below 50/200 SMA ($106/$132). P/E -87x, beta 3.85.
Call: 70% BEAT — needs >$280M + EPS >$0.20 + 1.6T guide to reclaim $135. Miss <$250M = $85.$HYPE has a real trading ecosystem as support, but the recent decline indicates that sentiment remains cautious. It cannot be assumed to have bottomed out just based on the pullback; continue to observe platform revenue and capital flow to see if the price can stabilize again at 78-80 A 9% pullback is called a "normal shakeout in a bull market," but is it really that easy on the derivatives side? Is this wave actually shaking out floating chips, or quietly building a squeeze trigger? Last night when I was watching the market, my first reaction wasn’t the price, but the two lines of funding rate and open interest: BTC pulled back about 9% from the high, and sentiment-wise everyone started waiting for a "lower low," but the perpetual side didn’t show that clean deleveraging feeling. A well-known trader said this is just a decent correction in a bull market and suggested continuing to dollar-cost average BTC in the coming weeks, the mid-term logic is intact. I agree with his point of "don’t be misled by short-term panic," but from a derivatives perspective, I care more about who is holding the positions and who is waiting for cheaper chips during this pullback. The on-site signals are roughly like this: - Price pulled back about 9%, which is a common correction range in a bull market, but the market is generally waiting for an "extreme low" to replay - The last spike-style liquidation was the result of multiple bad news exploding simultaneously, currently there is no equivalent density of negative news - Buyers in Q4 are still waiting to enter at lower levels, spot buying is hesitant - Perpetual open interest and funding rates have not been completely cleared, indicating leverage is still in the market - High beta targets like ETH and ZEC are falling along, risk appetite is short-term defensive My understanding is: what the market is actually trading now is "whether the pullback is deep enough," not whether the trend is broken. The mid-term logic still holds, the dollar-cost averaging approach itself is not wrong, but there is an easily overlooked point on the derivatives side—if leverage hasn’t been cleaned out, if the price probes lower again, it will trigger the【Crypto Circle Script】
#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？
Hynix's earnings report hasn't even come out yet
So why is the market already popping champagne?
HBM4 hasn't really delivered much profit yet
But everyone is already calculating how much can be earned next quarter
The money hasn't even been pocketed 🧧
Why does it feel like it's already been earned?
If the market believes
Hynix can still make more money with HBM4 going forward
Then funds will buy in early
By the time the profits are actually realized
The stock price may have already gone through a rally
If everyone knows AI demand is strong
And everyone knows HBM is key
Then how much of these positives
Have not yet been priced into the market?
Today's supply shortage
Doesn't mean it will always be in shortage
So I think
When looking at Hynix's earnings report this time
We shouldn't just focus on how much it earned
But also whether it can continue to earn this much in the future
What do you think?
After Hynix's earnings report is released this time
Will it continue to surge
Or will it pull back after the good news is realized?
$BTC $ETH #LumentumQ1OpticalGrowth
Why YES:
AI optical boom — 200G EML lasers 2x QoQ record, pump +90% YoY, OCS backlog $400M+ (was $10M Q1). Undershipping demand 30%, at capacity thru CY27. Q4 guide $960M-$1.01B vs $908M est. CPO + optical scale-up replacing copper H2 26.
Valuation: $780, $69B mcap, +335% 1Y, +111% YTD. P/E 346x scary — debt 6.4x. But OM 25%→32%→30-31% guide.
Call: 85% BEAT — needs >$1.30B + EPS >$4.50 + OCS >$500M backlog to break $900. $1.20B miss = $650 flush.As soon as the US stock market opened, Bitcoin immediately gave the whole network a harsh lesson. The 80,000 round number was as fragile as paper, instantly smashed down to around 79,600. By now, has someone in the group already started shouting "golden pit" and preparing to charge? Brother, hold your horses! After seeing the data, you might not want to rush in anymore.
$BTC current price is 79,980, breaking the psychological barrier. Logically, it should cause panic, right? Not at all! The 4-hour long-short ratio is still high at 2.24. Retail investors think it's a discount sale and are still buying, with open interest not decreasing, indicating all positions are being firmly held.
Looking at $ETH now at 2,311, it’s right on the edge of a cliff. This data is even more absurd than Bitcoin’s; the 4-hour long-short ratio has soared to 2.69. This is true love—falling like this and still not giving up, desperately adding positions. The main players love this kind of stubbornness; they won’t lift you up unless they completely wipe out your leveraged positions.
Finally, $SOL is currently at 101.3, with the battle to defend the 100 mark underway. The 4-hour long-short ratio has reached 2.94, practically wearing out the short button. Below are dense bullish chips; once the 100 level breaks, a chain reaction stampede will begin.
My view: Seeing the US stock market open like this, retail investors are rushing in. As for me, I’ll continue to stay empty-handed, drink tea, and watch the show. Don’t ever think a drop must mean a rebound. In such a crowded bullish market, there’s often a heavy hammer waiting behind.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 With one sentence from Musk tonight, he crushed a string of "new cloud" companies: CoreWeave down 4%, Nebius down 4.7%, IREN also falling. His exact words were that these companies will face major consolidation and closures.
What’s intriguing is that the person saying this is himself pouring money wildly into building computing power. This isn’t bearish on AI; it’s about clearing risks along the entire chain—the weakest link has never been the giants holding hundreds of billions in cash, but the middlemen who borrow money to buy GPUs and then sublease them.
Wherever leverage is added, that layer cracks first. If this round really hits trouble, it will most likely start with these names, not Nvidia. Keep an eye on them. 5600 dropped to 4000, is the gold bull market dead?
Last week it fell 4%, breaking the round number support, and the whole internet was shouting "gold is finished." But after reviewing central bank holdings data, I found a chilling truth — all the sellers are leveraged traders, while those picking up chips remain silent.
First, the surface looks terrible: really terrible.
From the January high of 5580 down to 4000, 25% is gone. Last week recorded the worst weekly drop since June, daily moving averages are all bearish, with the 20-day MA at 4155 and 50-day MA at 4340, price lying below them. RSI dropped to 27-35, oversold, but no bullish divergence.
Everyone says "the gold bull market is over" and "de-dollarization is a scam."
Do you believe it?
First thing: the reason for the drop is not that gold is weak, but that interest rates are too high.
The 10-year US Treasury yield is still near 5%.
The opportunity cost of holding gold is ridiculously high — why hold a non-yielding metal when you can put money in government bonds earning 5% risk-free interest?
Add to that a hot September CPI at 3.7%, strong PPI, and high oil prices, the market is betting a 75-80% chance of a rate hike in December. The dollar is strong, and gold is being pressed down hard.
It's not that gold is worthless, it's that "the cost of holding gold" is too high.
When rates ease, gold will be the first to take off.
Second thing: while you are cutting losses, central banks are quietly buying.
Emerging market central banks — China, India, Turkey — have been steadily increasing holdings this year by over 1000 tons.
They bought above 4000, and now below 4000, have they fled? No.
ETF holdings have not increased significantly during the pullback, what does this mean?
Short-term speculative funds are exiting, long-term allocation funds are waiting.
Third thing: technically, gold has reached the "faith test zone," but not yet the bottom-fishing starting gun.
Strong support: 3980-4000 (round number + recent low cluster), break that and look at 3960-3940 (July lows), then 3900.
Resistance: 4040-4075 (previous support turned resistance), then 4100-4120, 4150-4200 is a dense moving average zone.
Pattern: inside a descending channel, after liquidity sweep below, a rebound, but until it stands above key moving averages, this is just a bear market rally, not a reversal.
Monday's rebound 0.3-0.6%, oversold repair, don't get excited.
Before the FOMC, any rebound could be a trap.
Bull vs. bear, judge for yourself
Bears say:
Interest rates at 5%, holding cost too high
75-80% chance of December hike
Oil prices falling, inflation expectations cooling
All moving averages bearish, descending channel intact
Bulls say:
Central banks buying 1000 tons solidly
25% drop from 5600, correction deep enough
RSI oversold, technical rebound imminent
High debt + geopolitical uncertainty, mid-term logic intact
Short term I'm bearish, mid term I'm bullish.
But before the FOMC (October 28), anyone heavily positioned is foolish.
Trading strategy
Before FOMC (1-3 days):
Light positions or wait and see.
If itching to short: short on rebound 4040-4070, stop loss above 4100, targets 4000→3980→3960.
If itching to long: hold 3980-4000, wait for hammer/engulfing pattern then light long, stop loss below 3960, target 4040-4070.
Event trading (FOMC + PCE):
Dovish statement → rebound 4100-4150
Hawkish or PCE beats expectations → break 3960, look at 3900 or lower
Reduce positions or hedge before decision, don't bet your life on direction.
Mid to long term:
Build physical/ETF positions in batches within 3900-4000 range, don't go all in.
Stop loss? Mid-long term focus is on central bank gold buying and de-dollarization, not a single candlestick. But position size should not exceed 20% of total funds.
Gold now is like Bitcoin in March 2020 —
Pandemic crash, everyone said "safe haven assets failed," but it doubled in six months.
This time is the same:
You didn't lose to gold, you lost to the illusion that "everyone else is selling."
$BTC $ETH $XAU From a longer-term perspective, Bitcoin reached a historical high of approximately $126,000 in October 2025, after which it underwent a correction, with the current price down about 36% from the peak. Although there was a rebound in Q3, ETF fund flows were volatile, with significant net outflows during some periods. On-chain data shows that long-term holders remain relatively stable, but short-term costs and leveraged liquidations make the price highly sensitive to macroeconomic data. Declining trading volume and neutral sentiment indicate that the market is waiting for a clear catalyst rather than actively pricing in a new trend.
Entering November, the market is likely to continue with high volatility and consolidation rather than a one-sided strong trend. The primary variable is the Federal Reserve's subsequent path. If the statement after this week's meeting is hawkish or the dot plot strengthens the expectation of a rate hike in December, the US dollar and US Treasury yields may rise, further compressing the risk premium of crypto assets. Conversely, if data shows inflation easing or the chair's tone is more flexible, it could trigger a short-term rebound targeting the resistance zone of $82,000 to $85,000. Overall, however, financing costs remain a constraint, and Bitcoin, as a non-interest-bearing asset, is particularly sensitive to changes in real interest rates.#OkloQ3NuclearOutlook
Q2 MISS: -$0.28 vs -$0.16 est, Rev $1.21M vs $0.09M beat but loss wider. No profit till 2028 ($51M est).
Valuation pain:
$25.5, 52W $26.3-$152, -64% YTD, -81% 1Y. Citi $57.5→$33, Truist $51→$31, Piper cut too. Avg PT $75 = 170% upside but dilution — $1B ATM sold 18M shares. Inst 85%. Net -$105M, P/B $9.45.
Call: 20% EPS BEAT — earnings irrelevant. Needs licensing milestone + no new ATM + ARK buying to hold $25. Miss = $23. $14 bear case.Brothers, in the dynamic group everyone is shouting "bottom fishing, bottom fishing $BTC," I want to ask: at this point, do you dare to bottom fish? How many people have truly bottom fished?
Let's not look at anything else, just the current market trend:
From the K-line trend, BTC has completely broken down from the high level, all short-term moving averages are in a bearish alignment, with one big bearish candle after another pressing down hard. Every small rebound now can't even reach the previous high, it's a classic downward continuation pattern with no sign of stabilization or counterattack.
Looking at the order book depth, there are dense large sell orders around 79,640 above, the selling pressure is very heavy. Meanwhile, the buy orders below are sparse and can't absorb the dumped chips. Funds are flowing out, and the main force has no intention to support the price.
In such a one-sided downward trend, the bottom hasn't been confirmed at all; bottom fishing now is like catching a flying knife, no one knows if there's a basement under the floor.
So, do I dare to bottom fish? My answer is no, and I won't join that hype. Following the big trend to short is much safer than blindly guessing the bottom.
I'm holding this short position firmly, and I won't exit without a clear stabilization signal.
My short position entry price is 83436.2, now it has directly dropped to 79621.8, firmly holding +13.71% profit!
$ETH $ZEC #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Many people wonder: $BTC hasn't dropped sharply, so why does every rebound feel so fragile, collapsing at the slightest touch?
The answer isn't in the candlestick charts but in the funding rates and liquidation data. The funding rate has clearly turned positive these past two days, meaning longs are continuously paying shorts, and the market is crowded with longs trying to catch the rebound. Looking at liquidations, the big losers have consistently been longs, not shorts, getting washed out round after round.
This isn't macro forces dumping the market; it's overcrowded longs stepping on each other. Every shout of "the bottom is here" only fuels the next dip. If you want to catch this rebound, first ask yourself: what makes you think you won't be among those getting washed out?The cost of going long on SOL is not just the transaction fee; the real cost consists of three parts: transaction fees, funding rates, and opportunity cost. The third is the easiest to overlook but accounts for the largest proportion.
Transaction fees are the most direct. The taker fee for perpetual contracts is about 0.05%, charged once when opening a position and once when closing it, totaling about 0.1% for a round trip. With $SOL currently around 101, opening and closing a position of 10 SOL costs about 1 USD in fees.
Funding rates are the cost during the holding period, settled every 8 hours. On the morning of October 26 at 8 AM, the rate was 0.00008764%, which annualizes to about 3.2%. Holding a long position means paying this every 8 hours; for a 10 SOL position, one period costs about 0.09 USD. Over 10 days (30 periods), this accumulates to 2.7 USD.
Opportunity cost is the most hidden expense. If during these 10 days BTC rises by 5% but SOL only rises or stays flat at 2%, the 3% difference is the opportunity cost. For 10 SOL at 101 USD each, that's 1010 USD total, so 3% equals 30.3 USD. This amount is not deducted from the account but is a real loss.
Adding these three together, holding a 10 SOL long position for 10 days costs 1 USD in fees, 2.7 USD in funding rates, and assuming a 3% opportunity cost, 30.3 USD, totaling 34 USD. The fees and funding rates combined are less than 4 USD, with opportunity cost accounting for 90%. Before going long on $SOL, think carefully about whether you can outperform the market; if not, you are paying hidden costs. #AWS computing power demand is booming, what are the highlights of Amazon's Q3 earnings?
"Amazon's computing power orders explode: Who profits behind the earnings report?"
The entire internet is focused on Amazon's Q3 earnings this week, with rumors everywhere that AWS computing power orders are booked through next year, and Wall Street has pushed revenue expectations extremely high.
But behind the impressive numbers lies a heavy burden of massive cash burn. Tens of billions of dollars in capital expenditures are being poured into grid expansion, liquid cooling upgrades, and long-term Nvidia contracts, with cash flow stretched to the limit by depreciation cycles.
The real question is whether the payments come from genuine business deployments by enterprises or from a tech giant's arms race to avoid falling behind. This earnings call will deliver the most direct answer. $BTC #ModernaQ3VaccineSales
Why YES:
mNEXSPIKE COVID + mFLUSIVA flu (1st mRNA flu FDA 50+) approved. Cancer vax Intismeran (MRK) Phase 3 hit. FY +10% rev guide. Cash $8B+ after $950M litigation.
Valuation insane:
$200 vs $22 low 1580% YTD, +295% 6M, high $254. P/S 41x, P/B 9x, EPS -$7.25, Net -141% margin. Street PT $118 (42% down). 3 Buy/14 Hold/3 Sell. Oct 22 -25% on cancer data leak.
Call: 80% EPS BEAT (season + cost cuts) but stock - Sell the beat 1 needs >$950M + loss <-$0.90 + 2026 raise$PEPE This wave of the market killed too many people. On October 23rd, it was pulled up to a monthly high of 0.000005076, RSI soared to 94 overbought, attracting a large number of leveraged long positions rushing in. What happened? Huge whales started moving coins to exchanges, with a net inflow of 2.11 trillion coins, and the bulls were directly slaughtered. On October 15th, nearly 1 billion was liquidated across the network, and low-Utility high-Beta coins fell even worse than the overall market.
How was this trap dug out: PEPE has no unlocking selling pressure (100% circulating), but whales control 41%. Pumping up to dump is normal. It smashed down from 0.000004448 to 0.000004347, the oscillating downward line on the chart is the evidence.
This short position of mine was picked up at the bottom of the pit. 50x leverage, opened at 0.000004448, now at 0.000004347, floating profit +113.08%. But I’m not greedy.
Has it stabilized? No.
PEPE: 0.00000440-0.00000445 is the recent support zone (also the long-short contest zone), if broken, look to 0.0000040 (channel lower edge). Above, 0.000004448 is the opening price/stop loss line, if it can’t hold back above, the pit continues. Some platform funding rates have already turned negative, shorts are overcrowded, a short squeeze could happen anytime.
This is not the bottom, this is a "longs liquidated then shorts liquidated" turnover pit. The short position’s error tolerance at 50x leverage is only 2%, before FOMC, don’t rush to bottom fish, wait for the signal. $BTC $ETH #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议
Tonight in the Brazilian stock market, has the circuit breaker already triggered?
Woke up this morning and checked the market first thing; Ibovespa futures plunged 20% straight away, triggering a circuit breaker. EWZ night session once dropped over 17%, PBR pre-market hit $19.98, down more than 20%. This is not a correction, it's a stampede.
What happened? Lula reversed Flávio Bolsonaro with 51.76%, securing a fourth term. The market had fully bet on the right wing winning, so the "Bolsonaro trade" instantly failed. Concerns about the fiscal deficit have returned—the public debt is 82.9% of GDP, benchmark interest rate at 13.75%, these numbers make everyone frown.
Is this an overreaction or valuation correction? Honestly, more the latter. In the three weeks after the first round, Bovespa rose nearly 7%, the real gained 5%, all on expectations. Now that expectation is gone, it's just a pullback. But fiscal pressure is real, so it's more like a "killing of expectations + fiscal concerns" double pricing, not a pure overreaction.
PBR deserves a separate mention. It carries an extra layer of risk beyond the index—fuel pricing might be intervened. Lula did this last time, suppressing inflation but hurting companies. Now it’s near $20, resistance at 22, support at 20; breaking below 20 could trigger another wave of selling.
Is it a bottom-fishing opportunity? Opinions vary widely. Gavekal says high interest rates plus commodity exposure is an opportunity, recommending buying; another camp calculates forward PE from 9.7x down to 8.3x or even 7x, advocating downgrades. $EWZ To be honest, the most uncertain thing about ETH this week isn't whether it will rise or fall, but that both sides are talking past each other.
The portion that exchanges can sell is flowing out — roughly a net outflow of one billion USD from the US spot ETF in October. On the other hand, about 36% of the entire network is already locked in staking, with over a million more queued to enter.
The price is soft; it even dipped below 2300 in the early morning. The market seems to be sighing, but on-chain it looks like someone is packing up, preparing to stay longer.
I lean toward the latter: interest rates are scary, so ETF redemptions happen; the network is still active, so staking continues. The sideways price action might just be these two forces clashing.
If I'm wrong, it might look like this — 2300 can't hold, redemptions keep expanding, and the staking queue suddenly shortens. That would mean people aren't that confident either.
In the days after the Fed meeting, I'll watch the redemption numbers against 2300; whoever gives in first loses.
$ETH $BTC
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Calculating, S&P Global first announced the acquisition on September 17 and declared its completion on October 26, a span of 39 days. The acquisition target is OpenZeppelin, a provider of on-chain financial security standards; financial terms were not disclosed, and S&P Global expects the transaction will not have a significant impact on its own financial performance. I tend to view this as a positive development for the security standardization track, but not a major event that will immediately translate into performance.
① OpenZeppelin was founded in 2015 and was acquired in 2026, spanning 11 years. From another perspective, S&P Global is integrating a security company with a relatively long development history, rather than a newly emerging team; this makes the explanation of "enhancing security capabilities" more convincing.
② From the announcement on September 17 to completion on October 26, the transaction process took 39 days. The completion of the acquisition indicates the deal was finalized, but these 39 days should not be directly counted as progress in product integration or customer adoption; I prefer to view these matters separately.
③ The October 26 announcement still did not disclose the transaction amount, and S&P Global expects the financial impact to be minor. Without the price as a benchmark, it is difficult to value the entire on-chain security track based on the acquisition itself; if there is actual business adoption later, discussing the scope of impact will be more solid.
My judgment is that a traditional financial information company’s willingness to incorporate on-chain security capabilities into its system is significant; as for whether this significance will reach ordinary users, I will focus next on how the actual services are implemented and will not rush to calculate returns based on the announcement.#SonyQ2GamingAndMusic
*Why YES:*
Gaming G&NS ¥771B +28% YoY, MAU 219M +3%, playtime +1%, PS Plus shift to higher tier. Music ¥600B+ est — KPop Demon Hunters streaming + 25% streaming growth. Imaging sensor pricing. Tariff loss cut ¥70B→¥50B. ¥100B buyback + FY Op +¥100B raise. 7 of 8 EPS beats.
*Valuation:* ¥4,500, mcap ¥24T, -23% off ¥4,776 high. PT cut ¥5,100→¥4,700 but Buy stays. Beat rate 50% last 4Qs.
*Call: 65% BEAT — needs Gaming >¥1.1T + Music >¥600B + GM >36%. $24 → $26 if beat.*$ETH ETH is currently at 2,302: J value 13.84 extremely oversold, but the whale's "cleaver" still hangs overhead
ETH fell 1.74% intraday. The 1-hour J value is only 13.84, RSI6 dropped to 30.19, signaling extreme oversold conditions, MACD golden cross just appeared below the zero line, green bars shrinking, a short-term rebound could trigger at any time.
But oversold has never been a reason for a rise; the liquidation map is the real factor. The ETH long-short ratio remains as high as 2.46, with bullish exposure far from fully cleared. Around 2,272 below, there is about $270 million in long liquidation pressure; if broken, a chain of liquidations could instantly smash the price through 2,200. Meanwhile, spot ETFs have seen a cumulative net outflow of over $1.18 billion in October, marking the largest monthly outflow this year; Arthur Hayes publicly declared "I sold all," liquidating 6,400 ETH near 2,375. On-chain old whales are also moving, transferring 5,000 ETH, of which 1,500 have flowed into CEX. Blast has closed its withdrawal interface, some funds are returning to the mainnet, but this is far from enough to offset institutional selling pressure.
Key levels: Above, 2,320–2,336 is the moving average resistance zone; if a rebound cannot hold with volume here, it is a window for bears to add positions; below, 2,272 is the last defense line for bulls, and if lost, it opens the space to accelerate down to the whale liquidation price at 2,181. The temptation of an oversold rebound is great, but until the bullish crowding eases, every rebound may be building momentum for the next round of liquidations.$DOOD 592.52%. This is the floating profit ratio. But the real numbers managing this position are three others.
First: 29.59%. This is the actual increase. The 20x leverage magnifies it 20 times, but the risk is also magnified 20 times. If it retraces 29.59%, this position goes to zero. Compared to the previous round, the actual increase dropped from 33.76% to 29.59%, buffering reduced by nearly 4 percentage points—the cost of sideways movement.
Second: 0.000503. This is the point difference between the current price and the entry price. 0.002203 minus 0.0017. In the volatility of small coins, this distance can't withstand a decent spike.
Third: 0.000297. This is the point difference between the current price and the 0.0025 resistance. It was 0.000226 just now, now it's 0.000297—the distance is widening, bullish strength is weakening.
The operation is clear: push up to breakeven, secure the main position. Break through 0.0025 to target 0.003, fall back to cost and exit. $BTC $ETH
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 The hottest phrase in the group these past two days is, "Those who farm Predict have finally made it."
The reason is straightforward: Binance listed its pre-market contract, with the pre-market price around $1.5. At this price, the FDV is roughly $1.5 billion. A prediction market project that hasn't even issued tokens yet is starting off with a valuation comparable to a second-tier public chain.
Regarding the airdrop, the market rumor is that the share is no less than 5%. Calculated at $1.5 billion, that's a $75 million pot. Some people estimate the value of a single PP point at $0.15, and accounts with thousands of points could realize amounts in the hundreds to a thousand dollars range, which is not just empty excitement.
The project didn't just appear out of nowhere. In March this year, CZ retweeted its airdrop points tweet, and shortly after interacted again. The hype started from then. In the meantime, it acquired Probable, merging the two point systems, so early participants who farmed both sides effectively got double the rewards.
But I'm not so optimistic about the pre-market price. A $1.5 pre-market price essentially means the TGE's high opening is cashed in early, and those who enter at the actual opening will have to start at a $1.5 billion valuation.
My approach is simple: I don't chase the pre-market price. I wait for the TGE opening; if it opens low, I'll consider entering, if it opens high, I'll just watch from the sidelines. Farming profits come from patience, trading profits come from positioning—don't mix the two.#SpaceX业绩大增，与特斯拉合并能否推进？
SpaceX's recent $40 billion AI funding round has had some back-and-forth news.
Musk publicly said it has been finalized, but there are still reports that the pricing hasn't been fully agreed upon.
The credit market is very picky now; AI infrastructure companies without stable core businesses find it hard to get funding.
Even though SpaceX's performance is impressive, the interest cost on this large amount of capital is not low, so there will be considerable pressure going forward.Greatness needs no words! Pump officially integrates with X Layer!
With Pump launching on X Layer, it may seem like just another chain added to the asset list. Users don’t need to cross chains or switch wallets; the same USDC balance can be directly traded on X Layer tokens.
This is possible because the underlying settlement ecosystem is already established. In August 2026, Circle brought native USDC and CCTP to X Layer. USDC no longer relies on traditional liquidity bridges but is natively minted by Circle and flows in and out via CCTP. By early October, X Layer’s stablecoin TVS was about $133 million, with approximately $17.78 million of USDC bridged externally via CCTP. Pump is integrating with a stablecoin layer that is already aligned with Western trading habits, not a new network that requires users to learn cross-chain operations first.#BTC现货ETF大额流入后转负 Capital Flow and Leverage Liquidation
· ETF Capital Momentum Reversal: Although the entire week still recorded a net inflow of about $301 million, after cumulative inflows of approximately $1.075 billion in the first three trading days, there was a single-day net outflow of $636 million on Thursday (the largest recent single-day withdrawal), followed by another outflow of $138 million on Friday. The two-day total outflow of about $770 million directly weakened the buying support in the market.
· Long Liquidations Leading the Decline: In the past 24 hours, about 196,000 people were liquidated across the network, totaling $728 million, with longs accounting for as much as 84%. Bitcoin long liquidations were about $234 million. This decline was more a chain reaction of forced liquidations of leveraged longs rather than active selling on the spot side.
· Coinbase Premium Continues to Turn Negative, Indicating Weak Buying Power from U.S. Institutions.
Macro and Event Drivers
· Federal Reserve FOMC Meeting (October 28): The market expects rates to remain unchanged this time (over 93% probability of no rate hike), but bets on a rate hike in December remain high at 73%–77%, with hawkish expectations suppressing risk appetite.
· Inflation and Oil Price Pressure: September CPI rose to 3.7%, Brent crude oil broke through $115, and renewed inflation concerns combined with U.S. Treasury yields approaching 5.3% have pushed the 7-day correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 to as high as 83.4%, weakening Bitcoin's safe-haven attribute and amplifying its risk asset characteristics. #AMDQ3HeliosRevenue
Q2 BEAT: $11.54B vs $11.3B, DC $6.72B +107% (58% of sales), EPS $1.66 vs $1.62 — but sold -8% on GM miss.
Helios rack (EPYC + MI355X/450) shipments Q3, ramp Q4. Demand ahead of forecast. Server CPU >80% YoY H2 26, DC 2x again in 2027. OpenAI 6GW, Meta, Anthropic 2GW, Oracle. Wedbush $600 — CPU tight = upside.
Valuation: $521, 131x P/E, 38.5x 2027 $14.11. YTD +143%. Needs DC >$7.5B + Q4 $15.7B guide.
Call: 75% BEAT — numbers good, price is GM. >56.5% GM + Helios vol = $608