Orbit Post Sitemap
Term Structure Radar
The first-level positive basis for $BTC corresponds to a very small scale. The near-month buy and far-month sell quote spread is +0.96%, with the first-level pairing scale about $8; based on a 10,000 scale, this level only covers about 0.08%. With such a small capacity, shocks will quickly erode the spread.
The first-level positive basis for $ETH corresponds to a very small scale. The near-month buy and far-month sell quote spread is +0.76%, with the first-level pairing scale about $991; based on a 10,000 scale, this level only covers about 10%. Capacity sets the upper limit.
For $SOL, the marked basis is positive, but the near-month buy and far-month sell first-level quotes are inverted. Near-month annualized is +8.44%, far-month annualized is +0.48%, with the near end more expensive; the marked near-far spread is +0.11%, but the near-month buy and far-month sell first-level quote spread is -1.12%. The marked and executable directions are opposite, so trading should not be based on the mark.Azure guidance at constant currency is about 44%–45%, with this quarter's capital expenditure expected to exceed approximately 50 billion. Closed at about 524.51 on Friday. For $MSFT, I won't yet consider the "growth versus spending" as a final answer.
This Wednesday after the US Eastern market close (early Thursday Beijing time), FY27Q1 results will be released.
The company revenue guidance is about 89.85–90.95 billion, Wall Street consensus roughly 90.6–90.7 billion, adjusted EPS about 4.71.
Azure's new growth guidance is about 44%–45% (last quarter restated about 42%); the CFO said in July that this quarter's capital expenditure is expected to exceed about 50 billion, which includes lease accounting, so don't assume it's all cash outflow.
Closed at 524.51 on Friday (about +0.66%, opened about 517.75/high about 525.77/low about 515.70), and closed about 521 on Thursday, down about 2.2%.
I believe Azure demand remains strong, and I think the market will first focus on "how much growth is gained from spending 50 billion," rather than assuming the AI returns are already fully priced in around 524.
Tonight at the US Eastern market open, watch for support around 516–525; if it holds, then look for a move back to about 526–533; if the daily close breaks below about 515.7, expect a move toward about 510/500.
Do you believe more that Azure can cover the spending, or that the spending will first hit the valuation?
$MSFT #微软Azure增长43%，AI商业化能否提速？ Core Long-Short Logic
Dimension 📈 Potential Support 📉 Dominant Resistance
Macro The probability of the FOMC holding steady in October is about 90%, with no immediate risk of rate hikes in the short term. The probability of a rate hike in December is 80-90%; oil price at $111; risk of US-Iran conflict
Capital Market ETF weekly net inflow of $301 million; retail capital inflow provides short-term liquidity. Cumulative net outflow of $773.5 million in October; retail inflow may include pressure from selling to break even
Technical SMA near 365 has rebounded; low volatility convergence is usually followed by directional choice. Four consecutive daily declines, three consecutive weekly declines; moving averages in bearish alignment; rebound basis is invalid before 80,700 is recovered
Sentiment Fear index at 50, not extremely panicked. The forecast market believes the probability of falling to 87,500 by the end of the month is only 10% $BTC $ETH $ZEC #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ BTC at the 80,000 mark broke easily, hitting a low of 79,146 during the session, with four consecutive daily declines and three consecutive weekly declines, which looks quite scary. But what really makes me frown is not the price, but the liquidation structure — 728 million was liquidated across the entire network in 24 hours, with longs accounting for 84%, and BTC itself bore over 234 million in long liquidations. To put it simply, this isn’t someone actively dumping; leverage is lifting itself out. The ETF side is also worrying, with a net outflow of 770 million in two days, mostly from BlackRock and Fidelity, as institutions shrank positions ahead of the FOMC. Ethereum followed the hit, hovering around 2,320, with October ETF outflows exceeding 1 billion, but there’s an interesting contrast on-chain: exchanges saw a single-day net outflow of 170,000 ETH, the largest in four months, while staking remains at historic highs. What’s being sold is what can be sold; what’s locked is not intended to be sold. My stance: I won’t short unless BTC breaks below 79,000; I won’t go long unless it recovers above 81,000. I’m watching closely before the FOMC decision; at this level, volatility can easily hit both sides. #BTC The Ethereum Foundation sold again, and they chose the busiest moment.
On-chain data shows that an address associated with the Foundation, 0x5CB...22059, sold 2,785 ETH through Cowswap two hours ago, which was worth 6.42 million USD at the transaction price. 2,785 ETH is not a small amount; it's a position large enough to create a significant dip in the order book.
What’s more noteworthy is the timing. This address had just topped up ETH on October 12, when the coin price was still 2,534 USD. Looking at today, it has dropped nearly 9%. The calls to buy haven’t stopped, but the sell orders moved first.
The Foundation’s usual explanation is normal treasury management, which is reasonable, but treasury management has one common trait: selling only when it can be sold. When the market pulls back, liquidity remains, and retail sentiment hasn’t collapsed, that’s the best window. If they really wanted to hold long-term, why not wait for a rebound?
For ordinary holders, there’s no need to over-interpret, but two things are worth remembering. First, large addresses always act faster than announcements; on-chain data doesn’t lie. Second, don’t use the fact that institutions don’t sell as a reason not to cut your losses.
Check the current price position yourself by opening the candlestick chart. The position is yours, and so must be your judgment. The Ethereum Foundation's associated address sold 2,785 ETH two hours ago, worth 6.42 million USD, via Cowswap.
This address had just topped up on October 12, when ETH was still at 2,534 USD, and it has dropped nearly 9% since then.
The timing was quite precise—selling when the market was pulling back and there were still buyers willing to take the coins. The treasury management explanation itself is reasonable, but the selling point never lies; announcements may be delayed, but the blockchain never is.$ETH capital flow: BTC has buyers, ETH is still a cash-out machine
BTC ETF sees net inflows, ETH ETF suffers net outflows for the fourth consecutive week. No need for lengthy explanations.
The problem with ETH is not that it’s "falling," but that no one is buying while it’s falling. BTC ETFs have futures and options as buffers, with longer leverage trigger chains; ETH exposure is concentrated in perpetual contracts, so when funds withdraw, marginal selling pressure directly breaks through the price level.
Therefore, the $2,300 line is not a technical level, but an emotional one. ETF outflows are not narrowing; whether it holds or not depends not on analysis but on whether there are real buyers with actual money stepping in.
Watch: ETH ETF single-day net flow this week. If outflows don’t shrink, don’t tell me it’s "oversold."#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议
The main event is coming this week, everyone is waiting for the Fed's decision 😌.
The current mainstream market view is that the interest rate will most likely remain unchanged this time, holding steady and observing for a while, but this does not mean the hawkish stance is completely over. Previously, CPI and oil prices have shown some upward movement, and many officials are still concerned about whether inflation will be persistent; there is actually quite a bit of internal disagreement.
The key point is not whether to raise rates this time, but the tone of the post-meeting remarks, to see if they leave the door open for a rate hike in December. As long as the wording is somewhat hawkish, the dollar, gold, and the crypto market are all likely to experience volatile swings.
This kind of market environment loves to trigger stop-losses back and forth; if you’re not confident, it’s better to avoid heavy positions and wait for the outcome before deciding the direction—it will be much more comfortable that way.
$2Z #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到
$SKHYNIX Macro Direction Setting, Narrative Heat: How Did I Respond to SK Hynix's "Three Peak Attempts"?
Today I saw the official Q&A question: "What conditions do you value most when choosing trading targets? And what signals do you use to judge that the market has weakened?" Combining with my current trading of $SKHYNIX, I share my practical logic.
1. Three Core Conditions for Choosing Targets:
1. Macro Direction Setting: When trading any target (even stock tokens), you must watch the overall market sentiment. Today, the Korean stock market opened low and rose high, giving me the macro basis to go long on the semiconductor leader.
2. Narrative Heat: Behind SK Hynix is the hard demand for AI and HBM, plus the expectation of the Q3 earnings report this Wednesday, the heat is very high with ample liquidity.
3. Technical Right-Side Resonance: This morning SK Hynix broke through the early session high with volume, I went long at 971.6 following the trend, never guessing the bottom on the left side.
2. Signals to Judge Market Weakness (or False Breakout):
The official guest said: "When positive expectations are close to being realized, altcoins that remain strong against the trend need to beware of a catch-down." This is very true! Specifically on the chart, I look at these three signals first to judge weakness:
1. Multiple Failed Attempts to Break Higher: Today SK Hynix tried three times to break the 990-995 integer resistance level, all failed, indicating heavy selling pressure above (previous high resistance).
2. Volume-Price Divergence: On the 15-minute chart, price is pushing the peak but volume (VOL) is clearly shrinking, and MACD shows a high-level death cross with red bars turning green, the most typical momentum exhaustion signal.
3. Time Cycle Conversion: Short-term break below EMA9 and EMA21, and break below the early session rising support platform.
3. My Practical Response (Control Your Hands):
In the afternoon session, SK Hynix quickly plunged, my long position went from a floating profit of 200U+ to a floating loss of 100U+.
At that moment, I was extremely anxious, the thought of "can't hold" surged wildly. But I chose to trust the pre-set stop loss at 955.8. Since profit doesn't require knowing what happens next, I closed the software and left the rest to probability.
Answering today's official follow-up question: When judging altcoins/high volatility assets weakening, what signals do you look at first?
My answer: Look at the "volume" and "K-line body" when it hits key resistance levels. Low volume pushing high + long upper shadow is likely a bull trap; high volume breaking support is the real weakness.
What do you think, before the earnings report lands, should we hold or exit during this "pin bar" shakeout market? Welcome to discuss in the comments!
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 To pour some cold water first, daring to use leverage does not mean you have a precise view. Core Trader 02 just opened a long META position with 20x leverage, with a nominal position of about $99,800. I am cautiously bearish on this trade and do not take a large long position as confirmation of direction.
I have two concerns: first, leverage amplifies profits and losses, not judgment. By simple estimation, a reverse fluctuation of about 5% could wipe out the initial margin, and actual liquidation is also affected by margin mode and other factors; second, a single wallet going long only shows willingness to bet, it does not prove that subsequent buying will follow. If the price moves against them, the most painful are those with high leverage who refuse to admit mistakes.
Of course, they might have caught the right direction. If the price continues to strengthen afterward and there is support after a pullback, I will withdraw my bearish view. But these are just my observation conditions. For now, I am more interested in how this position manages risk rather than rushing to admire the courage.BTC Investment Weekly Report | Issue 16 (Exclusive for Long-term Holding · Major Cycle Analysis) Statistics Period: 2026.10.20 — 2026.10.26 Current BTC Price: 80014 USDT 200-Week Moving Average: 65836 USDT, current price is about 21.5% above the 200-week moving average I. Core Summary This Week Currently, BTC is transitioning from the early bull market phase to the mid-bull market phase. The bullish major cycle foundation is solid and has not yet entered the top bubble zone. All core monitoring indicators have not reached the preset threshold for synchronized position reduction. The short term is a consolidation shakeout during the upward trend; such volatility is normal in a bull market and does not change the long-term holding strategy. Maintain a full base position at 100% without any position reduction or adjustment, continuously tracking indicators while waiting for the cycle to further evolve. II. Key Indicator Data This Week (Weekly Level · Major Cycle Standard, CBBI uses percentage scale) 1. CBBI: 56 (percentage scale, bubble observation threshold 90) 2. MVRV Z-Score: 0.92 (top resonance threshold ≥5) 3. RHODL Ratio: 1102 (top resonance threshold ≥10000) 4. 200-Week Moving Average: 65836 USDT III. Detailed Cycle Position Analysis From the four core major cycle indicators, the potential for indicator dulling caused by continuous institutional capital inflow has been included in the personal execution plan, but currently all indicators still have a large margin before triggering the top resonance line. CBBI 56 is only at#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？
My US stock pre-market diary (October 26, 2026): What is the money afraid of, and what is it betting on?
Brothers, this bowl of noodles before the market opens feels uneasy. The index futures look red, but the funds underneath are running faster than rabbits. Don’t just stare at the index; let’s break down where the money is actually moving.
The big market is fake; sector rotation is real. The Nasdaq futures seem stable on the surface, but semiconductors and AI high-flyers are clearly getting hit.
Funds are doing two things:
First, withdrawing from the overcrowded AI computing power chain at high levels. NBIS and CRWV crashed more than 3% pre-market. Musk’s warning made leveraged funds run faster than anyone;
Second, the money hasn’t left the market, it just moved to another place to wait.
Micron, SK Hynix, and these memory chip stocks are actually seeing funds coming in. The logic is straightforward: HBM demand is solid, and after falling so much, it’s a bargain. The pre-market gains in QQQ are all propped up by heavyweights. If you want to see the direction of the attack, the money is betting on pre-earnings risk aversion plus the independent logic of memory.
The most eye-catching are NU and META. NU plunged 23% pre-market; the election results in Brazil exploded, and foreign capital sold off first as a salute.
Don’t catch a falling knife with these stocks; until political pricing is over, any rebound is an escape opportunity. META is even trickier, raising $35 billion in stock financing for AI while stubbornly holding around 657 pre-market.
What is the market betting on? Betting that Zuckerberg’s money burn can produce the next growth curve, but I don’t believe there’s value at this level #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到
When judging altcoins turning weak, which type of signal do you look at first?
Based on previous experiences participating in $RAVE and $LAB, these kinds of meme coins,
For coins like these, weakening signals actually require observing chip distribution, coin release volume, and major KOL dynamics, all of which can become signals of coin weakness, but these coins are less influenced by traditional macro factors.
For example, rave dropped continuously after ZachXBT's post, but sometimes it doesn't always work, like during the lab period when ZachXBT's post had little impact on Lab.
For coins like $HYPE, you need to pay attention to capital inflow, macro factors, and major KOL statements. For instance, at the very beginning, Hayes posted about selling hype, after which hype roughly dropped from over $70 to over $50.
Altcoins require more attention to chip distribution, coin unlocking, major KOL dynamics, and sentiment. Be cautious of risks! Before the earnings report night, I was watching closely to see if the risk appetite string had loosened. With 76% of bets, are they really buying growth, or betting on a script that can't fail? Before the market opened, I saw that SanDisk would report earnings after the US market close on the 29th. My first reaction wasn’t excitement, but a bit of nervousness for them. The forecast chart shows about 76% of funds betting on it beating expectations, and that proportion itself tells a story, like the whole class is convinced you’ll be first in the exam, and coming in second is considered losing. The surface logic does make sense: AI data center demand is still expanding, NAND prices are rising, and the company’s own revenue guidance is $10.3 billion to $10.8 billion. But I want to remind you, the market right now isn’t trading on how much was sold last quarter, but whether next quarter’s guidance can continue to explode. Expectations pushed this high mean the bottom cards are revealed early, and the margin for error is very thin. Recently, the tech earnings season has no shortage of cases where "numbers beat but stock price falls," Western Digital is a ready mirror: earnings and guidance are not bad, yet the price still goes down. So the real watershed this time isn’t whether it beats expectations, but whether the guidance reveals any cracks like profit margin peaking or NAND price increases slowing. Once that happens, that 76% position will instantly turn from buying to selling, and a stampede needs no reason. Looking at our side, semiconductors are the global tech stock risk thermometer, and this report will directly transmit to risk appetite. The bullish path is: strong numbers, and after-hours can withstand selling pressure and move up, tech sentiment stabilizes, BTC can breathe a sigh of relief, and ETH and altcoins’ beta have the conditions to take over. The bearish path is even more worth watching: if the earningsJust now, a big brother in the group asked which platform coin is good to buy now? I sincerely said, frankly, there are three platform coins now: one burns money, one collects rent, and one is being shorted by insiders.
$BNB is the only one going against the trend, up +2.2% in seven days. On October 19, the 37th burn destroyed $1.197 billion, reducing supply to 131.5 million. Q3 revenue was $54.2 million, up 54%. Real money and real supply reduction, no stories. 750 is the half-year top; only after passing it can it be called a breakthrough.
$OKB rose 1.26% today, the only one in the red across the board. But don’t rush, in this market, a little rise is still possible; most of it is driven by macro asset trends, not the exchange’s valuation. If the market doesn’t rise, it won’t move.
$HYPE is the most ironic. In 30 days, it collected over $84 million in fees, accounting for 67.6% of 38 perpetual DEXs, with 97% buyback. But the RWA share dropped from 80% in July to 26%, and surprisingly, 86% of the top 100 traders on the leaderboard are shorting it!
Therefore, I calmly told the big brother that BNB is the only one with active buying pressure; deflation is a hard logic.
OKB has no pricing power; if the market doesn’t move, it can’t move either. But once the market moves, it will definitely be the most valuable one!
HYPE is a good company but a bad stock; it’s highly profitable, but its share is being eaten away by other platforms, so just let Anan and OK pick whichever they want and that’s it.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $BTC struggled to hold near support over the weekend. This week features dense inflation data and tech earnings reports, making short-term market moves difficult.
I'm watching $80,133: this level has been tested 6 times, held 4 times, broken 2 times, and around $6.18 million in liquidations occurred near here in the past 46 hours.
The price is falling, but 24-hour open interest has increased by 3.9%, indicating shorts are adding positions. If it breaks below here, I'm bearish and won't try to catch the bottom.
Do you think this level can hold through the week? #OKXTraderVoices SK海力士$SKHYNIX will release its Q3 earnings report on October 28, with the financial figures looking like a "money printing machine": revenue approaching 98 trillion KRW, operating profit expected at 77 trillion KRW, soaring several times year-on-year, likely hitting a new historical high again. But the paradox is, despite such explosive performance, its stock price has dropped 52% from the June peak.
The reason is simple: the good news has already been fully priced in by the market. Now Wall Street doesn't care about "how much was earned," only two things matter. First, where exactly is the peak of this storage cycle. Institutions generally believe 2026 will be the peak of this price increase cycle, followed by a high-level plateau period, where pure high profits can no longer drive the stock price. Second, and most critically—the battle over HBM4 is not going well. Because NVIDIA's $NVDA next-generation Rubin chip schedule has been delayed, plus the time needed for mass production tuning, SK海力士's Q3 HBM4 shipments did not meet initial targets, and some capacity was forced to be shifted to regular memory production. On the other hand, Samsung's HBM4 yield has already reached about 80%, and the market share gap between the two has narrowed from 37 percentage points at the start of the year to 17 points, with some institutions even predicting Samsung's shipments will surpass next year. The once absolute leader's throne is starting to shake.
$BTC is much worse off. Dragged down by AI trading concerns and risk-off sentiment ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting, $BTC today directly fell below $80,000, hovering at the lower edge of a nearly one-month consolidation range. #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ This week can be called a super macro week. Here's a brief list of major events for quick reference:
1. Tuesday is the Israeli election. The importance of Israel and the US as conjugate partners needs no further explanation. After this week's election and next week's US midterms, many things can proceed once the political situation stabilizes. The short-term importance of this event is top-tier, and the long-term importance is solid.
2. Before 8 AM Wednesday, SK Hynix earnings report. Importance is top-tier.
3. At 2 AM Thursday, the Federal Reserve decision, followed by Powell's speech at 2:30 AM. It's almost certain there will be no rate hike in October, but the probability of a rate hike in December remains a key point of contention. If Powell's speech is dovish and lowers expectations for a December hike, the market will likely rebound accordingly. The importance of this event is solid.
4. At 4 AM Thursday, Microsoft and Google earnings reports and conference calls, importance is top-tier. At 9 AM, Samsung earnings report, importance is high. At 8:30 PM, Q3 GDP preliminary and September PCE data, importance is also solid.
5. At 4 AM Friday, Amazon and SanDisk earnings reports and conference calls, importance is top-tier. Intel, Strategy, and Coinbase earnings reports and conference calls, importance is high.
6. The Bank of Japan is also very likely not to raise rates on Friday. Importance is high.
Other NPC and less significant news will not be mentioned here.
From the major events listed above, it's easy to see that Thursday is the most likely turning point.
According to the most optimistic expectations, as long as Powell gives a tone like "we'll look at the data again," the narrative for a November rebound could start early.$BTC is moving sideways around 80,313, changing only -0.10% in 24 hours with a 2.0% amplitude. The market basically did not react to this interest rate hike news. Pakistan's rate decision affects the local currency and domestic prices, not touching dollar liquidity nor impacting crypto capital flows. The data aligns: the three-phase funding rate ranges between 0.0017% and 0.0080%, with leveraged longs not adding positions; DVOL is 38.1, and the options market is not paying for large volatility; 24-hour long liquidations are $9.43 million, shorts $9.24 million, nearly balanced. Options open interest put/call ratio is 0.83, and trading put/call ratio is 0.60, indicating more bullish positions. I judge $BTC will continue to consolidate between 79,321.8 and 80,920, and this news won't push a breakout. Bearish reversal condition: break below 79,321.8 with a clear rise in DVOL, indicating other forces entering, requiring a reassessment. Bullish reversal condition: volume surge above 80,920 while funding rates remain positive. $ONDO
Repeated fluctuations around 0.4, how does the underlying product yield transfer to the token?
In this morning's spot snapshot, ONDO's 24-hour price change was -1.80%, ranging from 0.3972 to 0.4127 USDT.
The snapshot is slightly above 0.4, but the integer part is not a guarantee of value. Assets under management, product income, and token holder equity are different links; without connection, the price will still be driven by risk appetite.
If business growth creates a clear holding demand, it can improve revaluation judgment; if only the scale increases but equity remains unchanged, the drawdown should not be directly interpreted as mispricing.#Franklin Templeton Applies for Dividend-to-Bitcoin ETF
【Follow Old Chives, Wealth Is Yours】Franklin Templeton launches a new move: buy US stocks, and dividends automatically convert to Bitcoin! Is traditional finance putting BTC into more people's investment portfolios?
Previously, to allocate Bitcoin, you either bought BTC directly or bought spot Bitcoin ETFs. Now, Wall Street asset management giant Franklin Templeton tries a new approach: dividends earned from holding US stocks are no longer taken as cash but automatically converted into Bitcoin-related investments.
1. What’s the difference between these two ETFs?
FBEQ: Mainly allocates to large-cap US stocks, with a strategy similar to a large-cap stock portfolio combined with Bitcoin allocation.
FIBT: Focuses on innovative companies, with a heavier emphasis on tech stocks.
Regarding fees, the latest documents list annual operating expenses of 0.09% and 0.19%, respectively. However, the exact trading start dates for both funds have not been officially confirmed; registration and listing do not mean trading has begun.
2. What does this mean for BTC?
The key is not how large the initial 5% allocation is, but that it attempts to establish a mechanism for continuously gaining BTC exposure. Traditional investors don’t have to actively buy coins with cash each time; they can indirectly access Bitcoin-related assets by holding the fund. If similar products gradually become popular, BTC has the chance to enter more traditional securities portfolios. $BTC $ETH $SOL Order Book Strength Ranking
5-minute median slippage, estimated by order book
$EWZ large sell cost decreased, buy cost increased. Simulated buy/sell slippage for 100k scale changed from 1.71%/2.08% to 1.93%/1.79%. Asymmetric change, only discussing execution, not direction.
$ORDER large sell cost increased, small sell cost almost unchanged. Simulated sell slippage for 100k scale rose from 0.70% to 0.88%. 10k sell still about 0.18%. Depth is deteriorating, same order size is more expensive.
$DOOD after enlarging orders, slippage on both buy and sell sides increased significantly. Simulated 10k scale buy/sell slippage 0.13%/0.15%, 100k is 0.71%/0.90%. Depth is discontinuous at scale, the 100k level is the real execution constraint. #Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ In short: Relying solely on the old stock and options market's pulse-like growth is hard to sustain; what can truly support its subsequent growth are new curves like event contracts (prediction markets) + Gold subscriptions + overseas expansion, while traditional crypto trading is currently a drag.
1. What is supporting growth now
In previous quarters, the rise in trading revenue mainly came from two parts:
1. The old base: US retail options and individual stock trading. When the market is lively, retail investors rush in to trade options, and volume explodes; once the US stock market fluctuates sideways and the profit effect disappears, retail activity drops sharply. This part is a typical "market-dependent" segment with no autonomous growth ability.
2. The new dark horse: event contracts (prediction markets), which exploded from last year to this year. Q2 single-quarter revenue increased tenfold year-over-year, already filling the gap left by the decline in crypto business, becoming the most elastic part of the trading segment and the new story the market values most.
3. Crypto business: Compared to the previous year's heat cooling down, crypto trading revenue has been continuously declining in recent quarters. Bitcoin market volatility no longer drives this segment as before, and US regulation remains uncertain and looming.Binance listed Predict in the pre-market contracts this afternoon, which is worth analyzing.
Based on the pre-market price and a total supply of 1 billion tokens, the FDV has reached around 1.5 billion USD, with each token roughly priced at 1.5U. This valuation isn't cheap, but it's not outrageous either.
What really catches attention is the points system. The project team allocated a total points pool of about 440 million points. Breaking it down by three common airdrop ratios:
Releasing 5% means each point is worth about 0.17U.
Releasing 10% means each point is worth about 0.34U.
Releasing 15% means each point is worth about 0.51U.
In other words, if you have accumulated 2,000 points, that corresponds to 340U to 1,020U, a threefold difference depending entirely on the final official release ratio.
Some compare it to Aster, whose post-listing performance indeed left room for market imagination. But the two projects have different token distributions and unlocking schedules, and their current liquidity levels are not comparable, so directly applying multiples can be risky.
My judgment is that the pre-market price has already anchored the valuation. Whether it can hold depends on two things: whether it gets listed on spot markets and how much selling pressure there is on the TGE day. The pre-market price has already dropped somewhat, indicating many rushed to get in early.
I personally bought a small position and am waiting for the official airdrop query to open. Despite strong Google Cloud growth in Q2, external bearish concerns remain around heavy AI CapEx, pressure on margins, and uncertainty over Gemini's ability to generate meaningful revenue. Meanwhile, any slowdown in Search could challenge Google's core business.
The key question: Can AI investments deliver enough returns, or will rising costs weigh on profitability? Could $GOOGL disappoint investors even if revenue beats expectations?#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？
Consensus operating profit is about 77 trillion KRW, with a profit margin close to 78%, very likely setting a new record again. The core support comes from AI server demand + general storage price increases, with HBM (including HBM4) contributions rising.
But don't treat HBM4 as a "certain super engine." There is industry feedback that Q3 shipments are below some expectations (Rubin progress, tuning), and Samsung is also chasing market share. The real focus is not just "whether it exceeds expectations," but the statements in the conference call about HBM4 ramp-up pace, Q4/2027 guidance, and capacity allocation.
The performance numbers are very likely to look good, but valuation and subsequent expectations will determine the stock price reaction. Personally, I pay more attention to the quality of the guidance rather than the single quarter numbers themselves. 🔥Bitcoin has always dropped after past midterm elections. But one thing most people overlook is that in the past, Bitcoin only completed its cycle bottom after the midterm elections. So the decline is just a correlation, not a causation.
This time, Bitcoin has already completed its cycle bottom, so this round of decline may not repeat. Bitcoin is very likely to have bottomed out before this year's midterm elections, and those , and it may happen again.👀
#SKhynixQ3HBM4Earnings Robinhood Chain on-chain application weekly revenue falls below $3 million for the first time, hitting a new low
Since peaking at over $37.7 million in weekly revenue from late August to early September, Robinhood Chain app income has declined for 7 consecutive weeks
The latest weekly revenue is $2.81 million, down more than 90% from the peak, with the biggest declines mainly in Meme Launchpad and Meme terminal
Currently, Robinhood Chain apps still maintaining weekly revenue of $100,000 include Lighter, Pons, Arcus, Uniswap, GMGN, and fomo 🎪 Monday night, the status of three small coins before the interest rate decision
$WLD 0.467, the identity network token hasn't moved today 🌐
Worldcoin uses iris scanning to verify that you are a real person, not an AI bot. WLD is the ecosystem governance and incentive token. At the 0.467 level, the market is waiting for two things: first, whether World App users can continue to grow; second, how much "proving you are human" is worth in the AI era. There have always been controversies over biometric privacy, and regulatory attitudes remain unclear. Before the interest rate decision the day after tomorrow, these small coins without an interest rate story just drift with the overall market, with volatility greater than mainstream coins.
$TRUMP 1.665, the political meme is waiting for external events 🎭 No company, no product, fixed issuance in advance, price depends entirely on external celebrity news and hype. It rose about 0.6% today, with trading volume active for a meme coin. But the pattern for this kind of coin is obvious: when an event happens, the buy and sell orders suddenly thicken; once the news passes, volume immediately shrinks. When you see it rising, it's often already the latter stage, so don't chase.
$BOME 0.000621, meme points small bounce 📉 It turns meme citation relationships into on-chain points, adding one more layer of retention compared to pure air coins. It rose about 1.5% today, but trading volume is only a bit over three million USD, a very light market cap; a few tens of thousands of dollars can move it. At this level, a bounce will trigger some to borrow and reduce positions; without new stories, don't chase the highs.
This article is for market analysis only and does not constitute investment advice
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $BTC's correlation with the US tech stock sector remains evident. When US stocks pull back, Bitcoin often weakens in sync; when US stocks stabilize, it experiences a slight recovery. This correlation amplifies its volatility. Without new fundamental positive catalysts, its price action largely depends on external market sentiment, lacking independent upward momentum. $ETH $ZEC Hynix earnings countdown: two days left, will the US stock market rally tonight?
Today is 10.26, only two days remain until SK Hynix announces its Q3 earnings. Last week, AI tech stocks pulled back one after another, and the market started to worry about when the huge AI investments will finally pay off.
Tonight, US stock futures have already turned positive, and oil prices have also retreated after several days of decline. Funds might take this opportunity to push the market up.
Pre-market:
Nasdaq 100 futures: +0.25%
$MU 889.66, +1.38%
$SNDK 1,254.29, +1.32%
$SKHY 140.94, +2.86%
Hynix will release its earnings on October 28, with the market estimating operating profit around 76.96 trillion KRW. Shipments of HBM4 and storage price increases are key points, but market expectations are already high. Whether the results beat expectations depends on actual performance (after all, everyone knows AI lacks storage, so it depends on who can truly turn demand into profit).
Although I bet Hynix's earnings won't exceed expectations, objectively, the chance of beating expectations is high.
If MU and SNDK continue to strengthen, they could help restore sentiment in tech stocks.
But pre-market gains don't guarantee a continuous rise after the open; the market isn't that predictable.
Tonight is Monday and an important night to observe fund sentiment.
After several days of decline, those who need to deleverage have done so, and those looking to bottom-fish are waiting for opportunities. It's too early to conclude whether all the bad news is priced in; first, let's see if the Nasdaq can hold steady, then if Hynix's earnings can take over.
#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ 📊 In the past 24 hours, the cryptocurrency contract market experienced a wave of concentrated liquidations, with a total liquidation amount of approximately $542 million, affecting over 115,000 traders. However, what truly deserves attention is not just the scale of liquidations, but how the power dynamics between bulls and bears are shifting. 🔻 1. In the past 24 hours, bulls have been the main victims Among the total liquidation amount, long positions accounted for about $460 million, approximately 85%. This means traders who previously bet on price increases have suffered a greater impact. 📉 $BTC: Liquidations reached $175 million, with long positions accounting for 88.6%. 📉 $ETH: Liquidations reached $157 million, with long positions accounting for 84.4%. 📉 $SOL: Liquidations amounted to about $23.91 million. 📉 $ZEC: Liquidations amounted to about $14.32 million. These figures indicate that leveraged longs in the market have taken a significant hit, especially those overly reliant on leverage and lacking risk buffers. 🔄 2. The real change to watch for has appeared in the last few hours If we only look at the 24-hour data, it’s easy to conclude that bulls remain in a passive position. But data from the last few hours shows a different signal. ⏱️ In the past 4 hours, total market liquidations were about $18.41 million, with short positions liquidated around $14.61 million. ⏱️ In the past 1 hour, total liquidations were about $2.61 million, with short positions liquidated close to $1.99 million. In other words #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？
HBM4 is very likely to boost Q3 profits, but "boosting profits" does not necessarily mean "stock price will definitely rise." The market already has high expectations for Q3, so the stock price reaction will depend more on: the ASP/gross margin after HBM4 volume ramp-up, Q4 guidance, and shareholder returns such as special dividends/buybacks.
I will focus on four key signals during the Q3 earnings call:
1. The proportion and ramp-up of HBM4 revenue: whether it truly shifts from "shipments" to "scale revenue";
2. Q4 guidance: if it confirms continued DRAM tightness and an improved mix of HBM4/1c DRAM, the profit baseline is more likely to be revised upward;
3. LTA and ASP elasticity: long-term contracts provide stable cash flow but may sacrifice spot price increase flexibility;
4. Shareholder returns: the market has rumored a possible special dividend of up to about 160 trillion KRW, but the company says it is still under review and not confirmed; the 400 trillion KRW buyback has been completed, and subsequent plans may be mutually constrained with Solidigm's funding arrangements.#France 10-Year Government Bond Yield Surpasses US Treasuries for the First Time Since 2013
The leader has something to say
On October 22, the yield on France's 10-year government bonds rose to 5.14%, hitting a new high since 2002 and surpassing US Treasuries of the same maturity for the first time since 2013. The spread between French and German bonds widened to 175 basis points, reaching a 15-year high. Moody's maintains an Aa3 rating but the outlook remains negative.
I believe this is not just a credit issue of a single country, but a signal of fiscal deficit repricing among core European countries. Some comments are spot on: the French bond yield surpassing US Treasuries stems from repricing of deficit and rating risks, and credit premiums will rise systemically. Although the rating hasn't been downgraded, the negative outlook means France's credit buffer space has been exhausted.
This is a warning for the global bond market. Rising financing costs for core European countries will squeeze risk asset valuations. However, US stocks and bonds were not directly impacted today, indicating that funds currently still treat this as a localized event.
On the market front, Bitcoin took a waterfall drop last night and is now fluctuating around 80,000.
Watch if the 80,000 level can hold. If it doesn't, expect a deeper pullback, with resistance above at 84,000 to 85,000. Do not chase the rise or sell in panic; set your stop losses properly.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; orders must have stop losses set. Good luck. $BTC $ETH $ZEC The US stock market has closed, but the stocks on-chain are still falling. This is the most authentic state of this track.
OKX xStocks quotes: xSNDK, which is SanDisk, at $1576.12, up 1.79%; xSPCX, which is SpaceX, at $150.87, up 0.63%; xCRCL, which is Circle, at $101.90, up 0.56%. The 24-hour trading volumes are 4.54M, 4.99M, and 5.35M respectively. This is the real popularity ceiling of on-chain stocks.
The leverage side is even hotter. Crypto.com stock perpetual fee annualized rates: $xSNDK +94.3%, $xSPCX +57.8%, $xCRCL +25.6%. Bulls are paying a high premium.
But another set of data conflicts: Hyperliquid reports SNDK at 1297.95, down 6.61%; CRCL at 82.38, down 4.89%; SPCX at 145.90, down 2.05%; SOXL down 12.25%. The price differences far exceed the normal range. This is not an arbitrage opportunity but a liquidity gap.
The falsifiable point is this: if xSNDK is still around 1300 after the US stock market opens on Monday, it means the on-chain pricing reflects an overnight semiconductor crash, not a USDT-side failure.Ethereum's price dropped 15% this month, and the leverage on the contracts side has first contracted.
The nominal open interest of ETH contracts on Binance decreased by nearly $1.3 billion in a month, now remaining around $5.7 billion. At the same time, the total ETH contract market size shrank to about $11.5 billion. Price dropped, market cap evaporated by $54 billion, and leverage retreated — these three events happened within the same period.
On October 25, ETH spot price was around $2,330.
This market movement can be broken down into three forces: price decline, liquidation, and active position reduction. The first two are passive, the third is active — holders with positions are unwilling to hold on and cut their positions first. These three forces combined made the market lighter.
But a lighter market doesn’t mean the bottom has been reached. The leverage retreat only cleared out the most vulnerable players. For the price to rise, it depends on whether anyone is willing to buy at the $2,300 level. Contract positions cut by 20% indicate that bulls lacked confidence over the past month, not that the downward trend is over.
The real focus should be on two numbers. One is whether open interest can rebound when the price stabilizes — that would mean new money is entering; the other is whether the next price dip triggers less liquidation than this round. If less, it means the vulnerable have been cleared; if still large, it means leverage has just shifted to a new group.
$2,300 is not a pretty level, but it’s a level where the chip distribution can be clearly seen.Binance ETH contracts cut positions by 20% in one month, with open interest nominally reduced by $1.3 billion, now at $5.7 billion, while the entire market is at $11.5 billion.
During the same period, ETH dropped 15%, wiping out $54 billion in market value, with spot price around $2,330 on October 25.
Price drop, liquidations, and active position reductions are happening simultaneously. The market is lighter, but lighter doesn't mean the bottom has been reached; it depends on whether new money comes in around 2300 to catch it. If no one steps in, it just means no one is holding, not that someone is buying.#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到
To judge the weakening of altcoins, I first look at the relative strength signal of "falling with BTC but not rising with it." When BTC is sideways or slightly rising, altcoins not only fail to rise but instead break key support levels first; or when BTC pulls back slightly, altcoins experience a large bearish candlestick crash (i.e., the "BTC bloodsucking" effect appears). At the same time, observe whether BTC.D (Bitcoin dominance) is rapidly rising; if so, it indicates funds are withdrawing from altcoins back to the mainstream, and at this point, one must decisively reduce positions or short.$NEAR has been quite volatile these past two days, but the volume has remained steady, with a 24h increase of about 2.7%.
From 11 PM last night to 1 AM this morning, the price jumped directly from 4.49 to 4.69, then gradually retraced. Interestingly, at 9 AM, 11 AM, and 3 PM during the day, the price was pushed down to 4.43–4.45 three times but was supported each time, with the lower shadows getting shorter, indicating buyers waiting below.
The current price is around 4.53, stuck in the middle, so I don’t want to open a position here. Above, 4.57 is the resistance level that was tested twice this afternoon but not broken, and further up, 4.66–4.69 is the high zone from early morning. The funding rate is around 0.008%, showing no overheating.
My own plan:
Direction: Buy on pullback
Entry: 4.45–4.47
Stop loss: 4.40 (if the bottom that held three times breaks, I’m out)
Target 1: 4.60
Target 2: 4.68
At Target 1, I’ll close half the position and move the stop loss to breakeven for the rest. If there’s no pullback, I won’t chase; if it breaks below 4.40 and doesn’t recover, I’ll wait to see around 4.25, near the spike from the day before yesterday.
For NEAR here, are you waiting for a pullback, or do you think 4.43 won’t hold?
Just my personal view, not investment advice, DYOR
#NEAR #ContractStrategy #AIBTC had a sharp dip in the afternoon, with the lowest point at 79,638.6 at 16:00 Beijing time on OKEx.
At 17:45, it was pulled directly up to 80,549, now around 80,373, basically flat over 24h.
This week’s calendar is full: Wednesday is the Fed meeting, with results at 2 AM Thursday Beijing time. CME FedWatch shows a 90.6% chance of no change, 9.4% chance of a rate hike, and 0% chance of a rate cut; on Friday, about $11 billion worth of Bitcoin options expire.
The liquidation distribution is quite symmetrical. According to data from pumpglass contracts, there are about $100 million long liquidations near 78,701 below, about $61 million short liquidations at 81,705 above, and $110 million more at 83,145.
ETH is currently at 2,331. CoinGlass reports the largest single liquidation in 24h was a $6.97 million ETHUSDT long, liquidated near 2,322.
My view is that the liquidation levels on both sides will likely be tested before the meeting. I won’t add positions before the meeting; I’ll watch which side of 78.7k and 81.7k gets taken out first.
Based on public information, this is my personal opinion for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market has risks. Invest cautiously $BTC $ETH $SNDK $BTC Observation: BTC and $ETH temporarily stabilize under volume contraction recovery, but a true reversal is still premature 😌
The market finally caught a breather over the weekend. BTC returned to 80760, up 1.26% intraday; ETH touched 2355, up 2.19%, showing slightly stronger resilience.📈
But don’t rush to call a reversal. BTC’s trading volume was only 4.8 billion, ETH just over 5 billion; incremental funds have not entered, it’s still existing funds switching positions within the market.🔁 This round looks more like an oversold recovery after continuous declines, not a trend-level turning point.
External disturbances remain: next week’s FOMC meeting, midterm elections approaching, tech stocks under pressure due to AI narrative doubts, large funds tend to stay on the sidelines.⏳ BTC is temporarily holding the 80,000 level, ETH’s resistance above 2400 remains. A weak rebound on low volume is unlikely to sustain a smooth one-way move; before the macro shoe drops, repeated bottom oscillations are still the main theme.🌊
$ETH $SOL
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议
#BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？
#中东原油运输恢复，油价为何仍居高位？ SanDisk's high growth cannot always be explained simply by "AI needs more storage." No matter how strong the demand is, how customers place orders and how contracts are set will also affect how long this business can remain stable.
The company previously disclosed that after announcing five new business model agreements in April, it signed another five agreements, three of which involve new customers and two are expansions of existing collaborations. It's especially important not to misinterpret this: five new agreements do not equal five new customers.
I am interested in these agreements because the most frustrating aspect of the storage industry is that when the market is good, everyone competes for goods, and when the market is bad, orders and prices both loosen. If the cooperation arrangements can improve procurement visibility and allow customers and suppliers to share investment risks more clearly, the company's operational quality could improve.
But the number of agreements alone cannot prove this. Details such as which products are covered, how long the agreements last, and how procurement commitments are executed are worth waiting for in subsequent disclosures. Signing agreements cannot be recognized as revenue in advance.
High growth looks exciting, and I am willing to watch. But I want to know more about how much profit the company can retain when the industry is not so hot. Only by managing customer relationships and contract mechanisms well can the company make the money earned this cycle rely less on market cycles and more on operational capability.
#闪迪存储业务高增长能否延续？ This breakdown captures the most essential contradiction in the current market: under simultaneous resonance, pricing logic has already stratified.
The issue with ETH is not simply a decline, but that institutional channels are systematically retreating. In October, spot ETFs saw a net outflow of about $1.08 billion, nearly wiping out all inflows from September, mainly concentrated in ETHA. More troublingly, after Bitmine approaches the 5% holding limit, its buying pace may slow, creating a vacuum in marginal buying. On-chain withdrawals seem active, but continuous selling on the ETF side indicates that chips are flowing more from institutions to on-chain deposits rather than new demand.
SOL’s awkwardness lies in the "narrative running ahead of the funds." The Alpenglow upgrade compressed final confirmation time to 150 milliseconds, and Q3 on-chain data also hit record highs, but spot ETFs have had consecutive days of net outflows, totaling over $70 million. A busier network does not mean a more expensive token; 74% of SOL is staked and locked, so the price is ultimately determined by that small portion of liquid chips.
ZEC is both the strongest and riskiest. The NU7 upgrade launches on November 5, with privacy narratives combined with ETF channels driving a big rally this year, but positive funding rates mean longs are still paying to hold positions. Small market cap plus high leverage means once the narrative is fulfilled, it’s most prone to a "buy the rumor, sell the news" stampede.
Next, watch two signals: whether ETH ETF outflows narrow, and whether ZEC funding rates fall. The former determines if ETH can stop falling; the latter decides if ZEC’s strength is sustainable. Position size matters more than direction.
$ETH #StockEarningsSeason #USStockEarnings
A question: Coinbase's expected EPS this quarter was $0.43 three months ago, now it's a loss of $0.22. With the bar cut this low, is it considered low enough or still not low enough?
Earnings report after US market close on Thursday, around 4 AM Beijing time Friday, with a conference call at 5 AM. Expected revenue about $1.2 billion, compared to $1.87 billion same period last year, and revenue has missed expectations for three consecutive quarters.
Its earnings day price movement is quite interesting: in the last 8 times, it rose 3 times and fell 5 times, the biggest drop was -20.9%, last time in July was -12.0%. Options this time only bet ±6.8%, I calculated the average actual volatility for these 8 times is 8.8%.
I will watch the trading revenue. Q2 consumer trading revenue was $452 million, down 20% year-over-year, while BTC rose nearly 27% in the past three months, not sure if trading volume kept up.
Binance perpetual is now around 162, roughly fluctuating between 160–180 in the past two weeks. If 160 breaks before earnings, sentiment won't look good; 175–180 is where previous rallies pulled back.
$COIN $BTC
Guess if the first day after earnings will be up or down? One word is enough, I'll check the answer when results come out.
Keep your own records, DYOR, this is not investment advice The green cardiac output curve on the monitor just jumped by 25%, but no one in the operating room applauded—everyone saw the still unstitched bridge vessel lying on the surface of the heart.
Intel’s heart has indeed regained its pumping function in Q2. Revenue rose by a quarter year-over-year, equivalent to the ejection fraction being lifted back from the critical threshold to the normal range; the Q3 guidance of $15.8 billion to $16.8 billion matches the expected perfusion pressure window communicated to the family before surgery. But the rule in cardiac surgery is: improved indicators don’t mean the lesion is cleared. What truly determines prognosis is the right coronary artery—the data center business—whether it can maintain blood flow under high metabolic demand, and whether the collateral circulation called foundry can stop leaking.
The demand for AI computing power objectively acts like a positive inotropic drug for this heart. The perfusion demand side is expanding; the problem lies on the supply side: the 18A and 14A process nodes are still on cardiopulmonary bypass. No matter how well the vessels are reopened, if the anastomosis lacks endothelialization and stable blood flow coverage, thrombosis will form. Foundry losses are that leaking branch—if not sutured, it will continuously consume systemic blood volume and eventually drag the whole heart into low cardiac output.
I have handled too many such cases: families holding the transferred monitoring report asking if discharge is possible, while I only care if troponin has dropped back to baseline. Revenue guidance is like a person’s blood pressure; narrowing foundry losses is their tissue perfusion. Beautiful blood pressure with cold extremities is a typical compensatory illusion, the easiest to fool non-professionals.
The neighboring bed’s ticker called $xNFLX is essentially carried along by the same hemodynamics. It doesn’t produce its own heartbeat; its rhythm fluctuates synchronously with every contraction of the main heart. Once the main heart exposed an anastomotic leak during the open-chest surgery after market close on October 29, the linked ticker’s pulse will first become irregular—not due to its own pathology, but stress-induced tachycardia following perfusion pressure collapse. What these patients fear most is never the bleeding volume, but blood pressure fluctuations during anesthesia recovery.
My judgment is simple: whether 18A can deliver effective blood flow on schedule determines if this heart goes to the recovery room or back to the ICU. Data center growth is contractility; foundry loss reduction is valve closure; no matter how good the contractility, if the valve doesn’t close tightly, blood will still reflux.
The hemostat is still in my hand. #intelq3terafabfoundry$SOL touched 295.6 during the week of 2025-01-13, which was the highest point of this cycle. The closing price on 10-26 was 101.44, a 66% drop from the peak. This decline is considered moderately large in SOL's history, but not the deepest.
From November to December 2022, SOL dropped to a low of 7.77, the lowest point after the FTX collapse. If we count from the previous high of 260 in November 2021, that was a 97% drop, almost to zero. In comparison, the current drop from 295 to 101 is 66%, which is painful but not the worst.
In the 2020 to 2022 cycle, SOL also dropped about 80% from its highest to lowest point. Each cycle's retracement varies, but SOL's retracement has always been larger than BTC's. BTC usually retraces between 60%-70% from its peak, while SOL often exceeds 70%. This time, 66% is considered moderate.
A drop from 295 to 101 is 66%, which means to rise back from 101 to 295 requires a 194% increase. Many people think "a 66% drop means a 66% rise to get back," but this is wrong. The deeper the drop, the larger the percentage increase needed to recover.
At the current 101, there are two mindsets. One is "I didn't sell at 295, so I definitely can't sell at 101, I'll wait for it to rise back." The other is "101 is 12 times higher than 7.77 in December 2022, so this level isn't low anymore." $ZEC The market situation looks awkward. The open interest surged by 24%, but the price was only pulled up by 12%, and the CVD is still trending negative. Bulls are enduring high interest rates to hold on, but the main players have actually quietly distributed their chips during this rebound. This market propped up by high interest rates will face a stampede sell-off once the funds dry up.
#ZEC
$ZEC
👇This set of positions cannot be simply interpreted as "whales collectively bearish." The simultaneous shorting of three coins, full position mode, and liquidation prices far above the current price resemble basis arbitrage or hedging positions collecting positive funding rates, rather than pure naked shorts.
BTC shorts have an unrealized loss of about $10.77 million but funding income of $3.09 million; ETH shorts have an unrealized loss of $1.75 million but funding income of $4.23 million; SOL shorts have an unrealized loss of $5.12 million but funding income of $3.8 million. This indicates price pressure, but the funding rate side still provides a buffer. As long as the funding rate remains positive, shorts can continuously "collect rent" from longs, which is a key reason institutions still dare to hold shorts during a rising market.
The risks are: first, if the funding rate turns negative, shorts switch from receiving money to paying money, breaking the position logic; second, if prices continue to rise, expanding unrealized losses may trigger margin calls or position reductions; third, if these shorts close positions en masse, it will create short-covering buying pressure, amplifying a short-term rebound.
Therefore, seeing "whales shorting" should not be directly understood as a crash signal. More worth monitoring is whether the funding rate remains positive, whether ETF capital flows recover, and whether these short positions reduce or cover margin. The above is only data interpretation and does not constitute investment advice.
$ETH For $ETH ETH today, I am more optimistic about the side with the limit orders.
There was an active sell-off of 20 million USD, but positions increased by 55 million, funding rates are hovering around zero, and the price is still near 2327.
Despite a whole day of selling, there was no new low; more people are buying at the bottom than the shorts expect. The ones who should be worried are the newly opened short positions today, with costs stuck in the 2290 to 2365 range. Any sudden sharp rise will force them to step on each other to exit. There are plenty of reasons to be bearish on ETH, but chasing shorts in this kind of market has a poor risk-reward ratio. #谷歌云业务增长82%，AI投入回报如何？
This Wednesday, the earnings reports of the three major companies (Google, Microsoft, Amazon) will be the market's focus. Besides growth, more attention will be paid to cash flow and capital expenditure, but it is expected that capital expenditure will rise. No one wants to fall behind in the new cloud competition.
Will the earnings reports and guidance from the three major companies cause a V-shaped rebound in US stocks? I think the key is to wait for the shoe to drop because the bad news is basically almost all out. "The worsening situation in the Middle East causing oil prices to rise + previous cpippi exceeding expectations + AI cloud companies' bond repayment ability being fud" have all already appeared. Today Elon Musk also started fud (risk warning). Is there anything worse?
Back to fundamentals, there is still a shortage of cards, data centers, and storage. Demand remains tight but stock volatility is huge, which is nothing more than changes in expectations. To be conservative, you can wait until this week's earnings reports are out and the FOMC ends before buying some fundamentally sound stocks. I have already started buying my first positions in nbis/nvda/meta, buying in batches.