Orbit Post Sitemap
Institutional buyers of coins first ask not about price fluctuations, but about who holds the keys. On October 5, Grayscale submitted a supplemental prospectus to the SEC, appointing Anchorage Digital Bank as the second custodian for GDOG, while Coinbase Custody remains the primary custodian. This fund currently holds 144,871,236.7167 DOGE, with assets under management of approximately $13.8 million.
The logic behind dual custody is redundancy. Single custody means a single point of failure: hacker attacks, custodian bankruptcy, regulatory shutdown—if any of these happen to the sole custodian, all holdings become vulnerable. Splitting custody between two entities means the risk is no longer concentrated on one party. The numbers in the supplemental filing are worth noting: the new custodian’s liability floor is $5 million, the insurance threshold is $100 million, and the maximum storage limit for a single cold storage address is also $100 million. These three quantitative metrics show that this custody structure is already aligning with Bitcoin ETF standards.
Scale remains a shortcoming. An AUM of $13.8 million is negligible compared to Bitcoin ETFs, and inflows are modest. But another signal has emerged simultaneously: Bitwise has shut down its own DOGE fund, making GDOG the largest Dogecoin product by size in the U.S. market, accounting for over 80% of the total assets of the three $DOGE ETFs, with a fee rate of 0.35%, placing it in the mid-range. Shares are concentrating in the surviving products. #闪迪存储业务高增长能否延续？
The boss has something to say
SanDisk released its FY2027 Q1 earnings report after the US market closed on October 29. The company expects quarterly revenue between $10.3 billion and $10.8 billion. AI data center demand and rising NAND prices are the core supports.
But the key to this earnings report is not the revenue, but the guidance and valuation. Comments in the discussion section are accurate: breakthroughs by ChangXin Technology have triggered a collective revaluation of the storage sector. SanDisk is not facing weak demand, but the supply-side competition expectations have changed. If the earnings report cannot provide better-than-expected guidance for the next quarter, or if profit margins are suppressed by ChangXin's expansion expectations, the stock price is likely to remain under pressure.
There is capital playing on the market today; SNDK rose 1.33%, xSNDK rose 1.50%, and the market is waiting for the earnings to materialize.
The impact on crypto is indirect. If semiconductor valuations continue to be re-evaluated and tech stocks remain under pressure, the risk appetite for Bitcoin will also not rise.
There was a waterfall drop last night, now watching if the 80,000 level can hold. If it doesn't hold, expect a deeper pullback, with resistance above at 84,000 to 85,000. Do not chase the rise or kill the fall; set stop losses properly on your positions.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; positions must have stop losses set. Good luck. $BTC $ETH $ZEC [Pharaoh's Market Watch]
Why did Bitcoin soften again to 79,168 over the weekend? Who exactly is dumping the market?
Pharaoh says straight up, don’t try to find a "scapegoat". It’s like several people shaking a table together; the soup spills, but you can’t just blame one person for it all. Multiple forces are at play here.
First, ETF funds did pull out. On October 22 and 23, U.S. spot ETFs collectively withdrew about $773 million. This is a real weakening of buying power. But note, U.S. stock markets are closed on weekends, so this isn’t the direct culprit for the weekend dump, just the "emotional baseline."
Second, macro risk appetite is suppressed. Middle East tensions, high oil prices, plus worries about AI investment returns are all weighing down risk assets. The FOMC meeting is coming this week, and no one is confident about rate hikes, so funds are hesitant to move.
Third, turmoil in the French bond market and high oil prices act as "amplifiers." When the French bond market is unstable, global risk aversion rises, and Bitcoin gets sold off along with it. Oil price increases stem from Middle East supply risks. Both factors are pressuring Bitcoin.
What does this mean for Bitcoin? Don’t guess which candlestick caused the dump; focus on support levels. Breaking 79,160 has breached the psychological 80,000 mark. Now, around 81,000 is short-term resistance, and 79,000 below is the must-hold line for bulls. If that fails, look for support at 78,000.
Remember, the table is being shaken by everyone together, and the orders are waiting to be filled. $BTC $SOL #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $DOOD just has a ridiculous spot trading volume of a few thousand, and a contract trading volume of hundreds of thousandsMaking big profits, making big profits! Short positions totaling about $1.29 billion, with two accounts already netting over $353 million 😂
A crypto fund called Abraxas Capital has set up two hedging accounts on-chain with perpetual contracts, exclusively holding short positions. On the books, the combined nominal short positions exceed $1.29 billion, with cumulative profits surpassing $353 million. Approximately $416 million is shorted on Bitcoin, about $405 million on Ethereum, and the peak short position once reached around $1.57 billion. Some dug up old records showing that a year ago these two accounts once had unrealized losses exceeding $200 million, but they held on and have now fully turned profitable.
Some say this looks more like hedging spot inventory positions rather than purely betting on a price drop. But with such scale, whenever the shorts move, the market shakes accordingly. In crypto, big money like this seems to be on a roll when winning and also tough as nails when holding losses—just watching makes your palms sweat.
For beginners, it's recommended to watch more and trade less; when buying coins, only buy $BTC The most eye-catching gainer on tonight's leaderboard is $QNT. According to CoinGecko data (Beijing time 10/26 20:15): QNT is priced at $217, up about 19% in 24h, daily range 181.9–221.5, 24h trading volume around $150 million, still trending on hot search lists. BTC is hovering near 80,000, most altcoins are weak, QNT is one of the few large-cap coins bucking the trend with strength.
There is no new announcement from Quant today; the market is still speculating on the September news that The Clearing House selected Quant for tokenized deposit clearing technology, which is expected to open to banks in the first half of 2027; there was also a short squeeze during the session that pushed the price up.
My view: The institutional tokenization narrative is real, but implementation is measured in years. Today’s move is more driven by sentiment and positioning. The current price is still half below the all-time high of 427, the key is whether it can hold above 200; if it fails, this rally is likely to give back gains. #BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？
MicroStrategy stops buying coins, panic or not?
Brothers, I glanced at MSTR before the market opened. Its market cap just surpassed Nasdaq, entering the global top 400. Logically, Seller should be banging the drum to keep buying. But what happened? Last week, only 267 coins were bought at an average price of 82,000. That number used to be just crumbs stuck between Seller's teeth. This week, no purchases at all.
Don't rush to say "BTC is too expensive to buy." The truth lies in the capital flow: in the same week, MSTR spent $193 million to repurchase its own STRC preferred shares, while only $22 million was spent on buying coins. The money wasn't less, but the direction changed.
It's not that coins are expensive; it's that the preferred stock dividends are eating through the cash flow. That STR C thing pays a 12% annual dividend, and the more they pay, the more the dollar interest suffocates them. What Seller is doing now is buying back high-interest debt to reduce future fixed expenses, rather than continuing to pour money into coins.
Looking at the pre-market situation: BTC has already dropped below 80,000 today, hovering around 80,200, with risk-off sentiment maxed out before the FOMC. MSTR is pre-market around 141.6, having closed down just over 3% yesterday.
This trend shows the market is also doing the math: your market cap is propped up by coins, coins are falling, you’re not adding positions, so what supports the premium?Elon Musk said something on Sunday, and CoreWeave got pushed down again in pre-market today — down 38% in a month, I don't even dare to touch this stock now.
On Sunday, Musk posted on X that the bond market basically no longer lends money to companies without AI data center revenue, and over 200 new cloud providers (neocloud) are facing "small fish-style death and consolidation." SpaceX won't buy neocloud either.
CoreWeave closed at $54.23 last Friday, and in pre-market it once reported $52.81, even lower than the $53.5 year-to-date low.
Ridiculously, short sellers have already made nearly $1.7 billion on this stock this month, with a short ratio of 23.7% of the float.
Honestly, demand hasn't collapsed; Nvidia's Huang said last week that computing power demand remains high, the bottleneck is financing, not orders, and Goldman Sachs gave a buy rating this month.
But the bond market doesn't buy this story; CoreWeave's unsecured bond yield is already around 15%, the cost of borrowing is clear, no matter how many orders there are, financing must be passed first.
My view is straightforward: the story is not wrong, but the numbers don't add up. Until the bond market eases, any rebound just gives shorts opportunities.
I'll wait to see a rebound above $54.23 before saying the downtrend is over; if it breaks below $52.81, this judgment is void. I'll watch from the sidelines for now.
$CRWV $NVDA
#CoreWeave减持33亿，AI融资风险升温 #SK Hynix Q3 earnings report is coming, can HBM4 boost profitability? #Middle East crude oil transport resumes, why do oil prices remain high? Impact on macroeconomic development? Impact on $BTC trend?
The resumption of Middle East crude oil transport but persistently high oil prices stem from soaring freight insurance, diesel shortages, and geopolitical risk premiums. This creates a "stagflation" squeeze on the macroeconomy: high oil prices push up inflation, forcing central banks to maintain high interest rates, suppressing investment and consumption. This channel also transmits to Bitcoin.
It will affect BTC trends, but mainly through monetary policy indirectly rather than direct causation. High oil prices exacerbate inflation concerns, making it harder for the Federal Reserve and other central banks to cut rates or possibly turning hawkish. A high interest rate environment weakens the willingness to hold risk assets like Bitcoin. Recently, Bitcoin has been under pressure near $80,000, coinciding with Brent crude oil surpassing $100 and an upcoming central bank meeting. Historical data shows that when oil prices remain above the annual average line, Bitcoin's upward momentum often slows. However, Binance Research points out that the long-term correlation between Bitcoin and oil is close to zero; the current linkage is more about macro liquidity expectations at play. If oil prices fall due to easing situations, risk appetite recovery may provide a rebound window for BTC; conversely, prolonged high oil prices will continue to suppress its upside potential.Today I came across an on-chain investigation by Bitquery, titled someone asking "Is Dogecoin dead?" The report contains two sets of data, and I stared at them for a while.
First set: In 2026, 87.5% of the $DOGE transferred on-chain were "change" — that is, the small amounts automatically returned by the system during transfers, not real people frequently buying and selling. There is also a custodial wallet with a timer set to transfer a transaction every hour on the hour, and this single wallet accounts for one-fifth of the entire chain's transaction volume.
I used to focus on "active addresses" and "number of transactions," thinking that busyness was a good sign. But this report pulled back the curtain: the chain looks busy, but most of it is machines running accounts in the background. What are the real people doing? Holding, not moving.
There is also a sentence in the report that left a deep impression on me: from 2013 until now, 72% of transactions were concentrated in 2023 and 2024. The people who rushed in have left, but the chain is still running, and miners are still mining.
$DOGE price is now 0.077, and no one in the group is talking about this report. But something that started from memes has survived the most bustling bull market and also the current quietest times, and the people at the bottom haven’t scattered.#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？
I'm Brother Ci, and I'll analyze it next.
SK Hynix is set to release its Q3 earnings report on October 28. The market data prediction in the screenshot is striking, with 81% of funds betting it will exceed expectations. The market's appetite has been completely raised to the sky.
The logic behind everyone's optimism is very straightforward. AI server demand is still booming, HBM4 mass production is underway, and as the leader in storage chips, profits hitting new highs is almost a sure bet. Look at the market; tokens related to Hynix are still slightly rising, and bullish sentiment is strong.
But I have to pour cold water on this. What does an 81% betting ratio mean? It means expectations are fully maxed out, with no room for error.
The storage sector has been a roller coaster every day, and just a few days ago, there was news about Solidigm suspending its IPO, so the bottom cards have actually been revealed. At the current high valuation, the market is starting to be cautious about pure cash-burning, expansion-heavy hardware stories, and financing pace is slowing down.
Once the earnings report is out, there are two scenarios. First, HBM4 shipments really break records, and profits far exceed expectations. But even so, if the market rallies on the good news, it could be directly hammered down by previously trapped positions, which is the common "good news fully priced in" scenario. Second, if profit growth slows even slightly, or if there is any flaw in the HBM4 mass production pace, this 81% of funds will quickly turn into the main force to sell off. $SKHYNIX $SKHY Robinhood now has 13 lines doing $100M+ annualized.
That’s impressive product velocity. But the market will only reward the multiple if those non-trading engines can carry earnings when volatility cools and rates stop helping net interest.
Q3 is the first clean look at whether the diversification thesis is actually showing up in the P&L or still mostly narrative.
Trading growth is the easy headline. The harder (and more valuable) question is how much of that growth is becoming structural. Trading crypto means guessing every day what Trump will say next, it's really damn exhausting. I was just worried that oil prices would keep rising, then he said he wouldn't attack Iran for now, and US oil briefly dropped to around 101.7, at least giving the market a breather. But I don't dare assume that just because he eased up once, someone will definitely step in to save the drop. He can change his words, but no one will refund the money lost on positions.
I'm actually willing to lean a bit bullish. After all the bad news turmoil, BTC dropped from around 82,000 to the 80,000 range, then this morning it was smashed down to over 79,300 and pulled back, so it really hasn't fallen that badly. But the 80,347 level tonight isn't strong either; the 15-minute 20 moving average is near 80,300, the price is grinding close to it, and MACD has already turned down. If I chase now, I'm afraid the US stock market opening will push it down first; if I keep waiting, I'm afraid it will just rally to 81,000 directly. The annoyance is right here.
I want to first watch 80,100–80,200; if it drops there and someone buys, then I'll try to go a bit long. The position won't be big; below 79,800 I don't want to stick around. Losing the position I barely recovered this afternoon again, there's no point in holding on. If it can bounce to around 80,700, I'll probably sell some first, leaving the remaining position to test 81,000. I'll remember your 78,200 too, but if it really falls there, I'll have to re-examine what happened at that time; I can't just shout “go all in when it hits” from 2,000 points away now. Tonight I'll focus on whether 80,000 can hold; don't let oil prices fall and then my long positions get hit again. 雨里跑单的人，最懂什么叫"钝刀割肉"。 你有没有发现，这一轮最脆弱的其实是小额定投的普通人？ 第340天，每小时自动扣0.1 USDT，累计804 USDT。今天账面-43.67元，跌幅0.81%。均价还挂在80898，最新价已经滑到80240。数字不大，但那种每小时被轻轻扣一下的感觉，比一次性大跌更磨人。 我盯着这组数看了很久。真正值得琢磨的不是这几十块浮亏，而是它背后的资金偏好信号：当散户还在用"每小时0.1U"这种机械节奏往里填，说明增量资金是碎的、慢的、犹豫的。这种买法不制造情绪，也不制造成交量，它只是在被动接住下滑的价格。市场交易的不是恐慌，是"没人急着抢"。 偏多的一面在于，这种持续小额吸筹往往出现在情绪冰点附近。账户里BTC从零攒到0.0099，筹码在慢慢变厚，一旦风险偏好回暖，这类沉默仓位会变成抛压很小的底仓。但风险也清楚：如果价格继续阴跌，定投者的心理账户会先崩，扣款变成负担，节奏一停，反而是弱势确认。 再看传导。BTC在8万附近磨，ETH和山寨缺少领涨主线，资金更愿意待在稳定币里观望，而不是扩散到高波动板块。风险偏好没有扩张，只是在收缩中寻找安全感。这种环境下，追热Today, focus on recovery, not reversal. Short-term funds are starting to flow back, but the mid-term retreat is not over yet.
BTC spot net inflow over 4 hours is $39.36 million, contract net inflow is $127 million. Over 24 hours, spot net outflow is $34.95 million, contract net outflow is $118 million. The 30-day contract net outflow has expanded to $7.82 billion. There is short-term fund replenishment, but mid-term selling pressure remains.
ETH spot net inflow over 4 hours is $24.24 million, contract net inflow is $56.19 million. Over 24 hours, spot net outflow is $45.33 million, contract net outflow is $105 million. The 30-day contract net outflow is $8.64 billion, with a retreat scale exceeding BTC, indicating an overall weaker structure.
SOL spot and contract net inflows over 24 hours are $9.86 million and $10.58 million respectively, showing clear short-term strength. The 30-day contract still has a net outflow of $2.05 billion, indicating spot buyers are present, but long-term leveraged funds have not returned yet.
BTC and ETH show short-term recovery, SOL is relatively strong. The 4-hour inflow has appeared, but the 24-hour and 30-day fund structures have not truly reversed. Currently, it is best to hold light positions and observe, avoid going long. The most worth watching 1H candle tonight is on $QUANT.
The hardest data (TokenPost): On Binance spot, during the same 4-hour period when the price surged to $221, the combined liquidations on Binance, Bybit, and OKX were only $170,000—no one got liquidated heavily.
On OKX: QUANT-USDT-SWAP at 214.5, 24h open 182.4, high 221.5, volume 98,400 tokens ≈ $21 million; the 1H candle at 19:00 had a volume of 22,216 tokens ≈ $4.7 million, which is 14 times that of the 15:00 candle, accounting for 23% of the daily volume.
Funding fees settle every 4 hours, at 08:00, 12:00, and 16:00 the floor rate was 0.00005, indicating no crowding on the long side; at 20:00 it flipped to -0.0118%. Open interest rose from 1.36 million at 15:00 to 2.03 million at 20:00, then dropped back to 1.54 million at 20:05.
CoinMarketCap, Pluang, and TokenPost all point to institutional entry and bank-level clearing. CoinGecko shows a market cap of 3.13 billion, down 49.7% from ATH.
The spot market with zero liquidations is more resilient, but I’m not daring to chase at 221.
Do you think this kind of thin order book plus institutional narrative coin is better to wait for a pullback to 205 before watching, or to exit the same day?Bitcoin's "U.S. Midterm Election Curse" has appeared four times in a row.
In 2010, BTC dropped 72%.
In 2014, BTC dropped 65%.
In 2018, BTC dropped 52%.
In 2022, BTC dropped 27%.
Four cycles, four significant declines.
But lining up these numbers reveals another detail: the drop percentage gradually shrank from 72% to 27%. The direction hasn't changed, but the magnitude of the pullback is weakening.
So, will it drop again in 2026?
These four historical performances are indeed worth studying, but they are not enough to prove a stable causal relationship between the midterm elections and BTC declines. Interest rates, liquidity, macroeconomics, capital allocation, and the crypto market's own cycles can all affect Bitcoin's price.
The narrowing drop does not necessarily mean the next drop will be smaller. The sample is limited, so past changes cannot be directly taken as future rules.
If you only look at four consecutive drops, it's easy to form panic expectations; if you only look at the narrowing drop, you might underestimate the risk.
Historical trends can help us identify risks but cannot guarantee future repetition. Rather than blindly believing in the election curse, it's better to make a solid trading plan for yourself.#Coinbase整合Deribit，Q3收入能否改善？
"Coinbase Options Can't Save the Q3 Earnings"
This time Coinbase has integrated Deribit to access options, and many people's first reaction is that the Q3 financial report can turn around.
Just a glance at the market shows Bitcoin recently hovering around eighty thousand dollars, with trading volume shrinking from over five hundred million in a single day to just over two hundred million. The sharp thinning of spot trading fees is the real pressure weighing down.
No matter how big the options ecosystem is, the revenue share is very thin, and the compliance licenses and system integration have to be calculated monthly. Expecting this distant water to immediately put out the nearby fire is simply impossible to reflect in the Q3 performance. $BTC To pour some cold water first, I don't directly take "stablecoins now have a regulatory framework" as a positive signal. On October 24, Canada published a draft regulation on stablecoins in the Canada Gazette, prohibiting issuers from paying direct or indirect returns to holders, requiring non-financial institution issuers to register with the Bank of Canada, keep reserves in banks, and maintain a 1:1 allocation of high-quality liquid assets denominated in the pricing currency, supporting redemption at face value. My judgment: this is about drawing boundaries, not handing out red envelopes to the entire sector.
I am cautious for two reasons. First, the yield restrictions even involve some platform activity rewards; if issuers originally relied on rewards to attract users, then the customer acquisition logic must be recalculated, and ordinary users cannot equate stablecoins with interest-bearing accounts. Second, reserve and registration requirements raise compliance thresholds; if the execution costs for small issuers increase, then participants with ample resources may have an advantage. Interpreting this differentiation as a benefit for the entire industry seems too crude to me.
However, those optimistic might be right: full reserves and face-value redemption requirements do help build trust. But this is still a draft, not equivalent to finalized rules. If subsequent enforcement can both constrain risks and not obviously hinder payment usage, I will put away some of my bearish filters. What I will focus on next are the implementation details and usage demands, not the four words "regulatory benefits."Microsoft after Wednesday's close, one step behind the Federal Reserve.
Microsoft will report earnings after the market closes on Wednesday, October 28, the same night as Google.
The market consensus expects earnings per share around $4.71 and revenue about $90.6 billion.
Microsoft's own revenue guidance from July was between $89.85 billion and $90.95 billion.
Azure is guided to grow about 45% at a constant currency rate, which is the real test.
The Federal Reserve just finished its meeting that same afternoon.
I think revenue will most likely fall within the guidance, with little surprise upside.
The real stock price drivers are two numbers: Azure growth rate and capital expenditures.
45% is just passing; the market wants acceleration, plus no more bottlenecks in computing power.
If spending is sharply increased but Azure doesn't accelerate, it could replay last week's Meta scenario.
So I won't chase before the earnings report; I'll wait for the numbers.
Invalidation condition: If Azure clearly exceeds 45% and next quarter's guidance is further raised, then my caution is wrong.
Do you think Microsoft this time is "Azure acceleration" or "scary spending"?
$MSFT
#MicrosoftEarnings #USStocks #FOMC[Pharaoh's Market Watch]
Robinhood's trading business has surged so fiercely, can it keep the momentum going?
Pharaoh says directly, don't just look at the revenue growth happily; the "hidden risks" behind have already started ticking.
First, let's look at how impressive the report card is. Q3 crypto trading revenue hit $467 million, a year-over-year surge of 300%. Total revenue was $1.27 billion, and net profit nearly tripled year-over-year.
First, extremely dependent on market conditions. Robinhood earns its money from trading fees. This surge relies entirely on the intense volatility of Bitcoin and Ethereum from August to October.
Second, facing encirclement from traditional brokers. Charles Schwab just opened direct transfers for BTC and ETH, and BlackRock and JPMorgan are aggressively pushing crypto products.
Third, trouble in its own backyard. Although Robinhood Chain had strong trading volume initially, recent net capital outflows have been severe. The crash of Meme coins has trapped many trend-following players, causing considerable community discontent.
Robinhood is a "thermometer" of retail investor sentiment. Its trading volume surge indicates retail FOMO is still alive; but if its growth slows, it means retail investors are starting to fear a peak and become cautious.
Pharaoh gives you a practical strategy: don't chase Bitcoin just because of one earnings report. Wait for a pullback near 78,000 to buy more Bitcoin, and be a true friend with $1,000/$2,000 $BTC $ETH $ZEC #Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ The US stock market is about to open soon, please don't pull it up only to slam it back down tonight. BTC was around 79,300 this morning, barely pulled back to 80,000 in the afternoon, now at 80,347 and starting to consolidate again. ETH at 2,331, SOL at 101.7, both have recovered compared to this morning, but still lack the momentum for a strong rally. Oil prices fell pre-market, and US stock futures aren't reacting strongly either. This week is packed with earnings reports and the Fed meeting, I really can't confidently predict where the money will flow after it returns.
Tonight I want to go long on BTC more, but I'll hold off around 80,300 for now. The 15-minute 20 moving average has risen to 80,298, price is hugging it, but MACD is starting to turn down. Entering now would be tough, even a small dip at the open would be painful. I want to see if anyone will catch it between 80,100 and 80,200. If it really drops, I'm afraid it might break below 80,000, so I'll probably only try a little. Below 79,800 I won't stick around; the afternoon rally has almost been fully given back, no point holding on. If it can reach 80,650, I want to take some profits, but I won't get greedy at 81,000—it's died near there several times before.
I'm less eager to move ETH; the 20 moving average is at 2,327, just underfoot, and 2,330 has been stuck for a while without moving up. I'd rather wait for it to reclaim 2,340, then if it pulls back it can hold, and then consider adding a bit. I'll want to sell between 2,350 and 2,365. I'll leave SOL alone for now; chasing at 101.7, and there's someone waiting to exit at 102.2. Damn, I'll open fewer trades tonight, don't want to fill my positions before the US market even opens.#OctFOMCDecisionThisWeek
#FOMC
The focus this week is not just whether the Federal Reserve will pause rate hikes, but what signals the subsequent policy will send.
If the wording leans dovish, BTC may have a chance to rebound; if it emphasizes inflation pressure and hints that high interest rates will persist longer, the market still faces downside risks.
Especially after BTC fell below $80,000, don’t rush to bet on the direction; first, watch if post-meeting capital flows and prices can stabilize.
Are you more optimistic about a rebound this time, or a continued pullback?
$BTC $ETH $IRYSSNOW current price 326.45, 24h +1.0%. Only two real prices traded in these 24 hours, with a three-dollar wick inserted above and below.
08:00 volume 26 contracts (27 times the previous 0.97) surged to 328.1 and closed at 325.1, the three-dollar upper wick fully returned = no one caught above 328.
16:00 volume 44 contracts (largest of the day) reversed to 320.83 and closed at 323.9, the 3.1-dollar lower wick = someone really caught at 320.8.
The 324~328 range between the two wicks is drawn, don’t treat it as support or resistance.
The current price was pushed up at 19:00 using 9 contracts (one-fifth of the 16:00 dumping volume), only 1.65 dollars left to 328.1. The closer to the top of the upper wick, the more you need to watch the money.
1H close above 328.10 with volume (≥15 contracts) → pull back to 327.2~327.6 to go long, stop loss 326.20, target 331.50, odds 3.1.
1H close below 324.00 with volume (≥20 contracts) → rebound to 324.5~324.9 to go short, stop loss 325.90, target 320.83, odds 2.9.
Do not trade between 324~328, the real pricing is at 21:30 when US stock market opens.
$SNOW
(Not investment advice, trade at your own risk)【市场实时行情】$BTC $79,400–$80,000区间震荡，$ETH $2,300附近，主流币仍在FOMC前低位整理。而大洋彼岸的美股盘后，一份关于“散户交易平台”的财报，给币圈的交易叙事投下了一枚值得细读的信号弹。 👇 先拆Robinhood Q3的核心数据，看清“超预期”和“不及预期”分别在哪： 📈 【整体大盘】总净营收12.74亿美元，同比增长100%，创纪录；净利润5.56亿美元，同比增长271%；稀释EPS 0.61美元，远超市场预期的0.53–0.54美元。从任何角度看，这都是一份强劲的财报。 📉 【加密板块的预期差】交易类营收7.30亿美元，同比增长129%。其中加密营收2.68亿美元，同比增长超过300%，但仍未达到市场预期。分析师此前基于加密牛市和更宽松的监管环境，预期的是超过400%的增长。2.68亿对61亿（去年同期），增速已经惊人，但市场的胃口被吊得更高。 📊 【交易量底色】Q3加密名义交易量800亿美元，涵盖Robinhood App和Bitstamp交易所。股票交易量6470亿美元（同比+126%），期权6.1亿张（+38%），加密是增速最快的Ethereum's funds have been flowing out continuously for the past four weeks. ETH ETFs have been withdrawn for four consecutive weeks, with another $220 million leaving this week.
The money hasn't disappeared; it has moved to Bitcoin. The ETH/BTC ratio has been pushed down all the way, making Ethereum a withdrawal machine for portfolio rebalancing.
Supply is still increasing on that side, with batches of staked tokens being unlocked and released, increasing the amount of sellable chips, but the reasons for buyers to step in haven't increased.
On-chain revenue hasn't kept up either; this DeFi cycle hasn't produced any breakout hits, so transaction fees aren't rising.
Therefore, I'm not buying in. Until ETF funds turn positive, even if the price looks cheap when it drops, there's actually no support below. Wait for the funds to turn positive before considering bottom-fishing. $BNB BNB is getting so heavy that it’s almost impossible to drive.
The retail investors' long-short ratio has surged to 2.4, but the big holders are all pressing down on the short side.
Retail investors are still crazily adding leverage to catch the falling knife, while the sell orders above are tightly placed, and the rebound is weak like a spasm.
The main force is clearly waiting for these retail investors to max out their leverage, ready to smash the market and stomp it down at any moment.
#BNB
$BNB
👇$HYPE HYPE This wave of good news about the US-listed company PURR's buyback actually had retail investors taking the bait.
Looking closely at the announcement, the buyback is for Nasdaq stocks, which has nothing to do with the HYPE token.
Checking on-chain, the whale 0xf02d directly placed a $54 million 5x short position, with an unrealized profit of $5 million, still paying funding fees daily, holding the position tightly without moving.
Above are all trapped positions; the market makers use the US stock buyback news to fool retail investors into taking the risk, but the outcome can only be providing liquidity to the whale.
#HYPE
$HYPE
👇#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 Over the years in the crypto space, after experiencing several cycles of bull and bear markets and witnessing countless celebrations of altcoin seasons and the harshness of altcoin bears, I no longer fixate on any single indicator. I adhere to one core principle: altcoins do not have independent market trends; their weakening is often a resonance of liquidity, sentiment, and capital structure. When judging altcoin weakness, the first and most important signals I look at are the following three categories: The first category is abnormal performance relative to the overall market. This is the earliest and most sensitive signal, and also the judgment I rely on most for shorting or topping out. 1. Breakthrough in exchange rate pairs. Core logic: The underlying pricing unit in the crypto space is BTC. If the overall market is fluctuating or slightly rising, but the exchange rate of the altcoin against BTC keeps hitting new lows, it indicates that funds are mercilessly withdrawing from that altcoin, flowing back to BTC or ETH. Exchange rate breakdown is the most ironclad signal of altcoin weakness. 2. False strength when it should be falling. Core logic: When BTC plunges sharply, the altcoin not only does not follow the drop but even rallies against the trend. Many novices may think the coin is very strong and that the whales are supporting it. Experienced traders see danger: without significant independent positive support, a rally against the trend is most likely to attract momentum followers to take the risk or to maintain appearances before an imminent large-scale unlocking. Once the market stabilizes slightly, it will crash more violently to catch up on the drop. 3. High volume at elevated levels The funding flow around Ethereum has been moving outward continuously for the past four weeks. ETH ETFs have seen net outflows for four consecutive weeks, with another $220 million withdrawn this week. Looking at just one week might not be alarming, but four consecutive weeks of outflows indicate one thing: institutions are reducing their positions at this level, not increasing them.
The withdrawn funds haven't disappeared into thin air; the price ratio makes it clear. The ETH/BTC pair has been suppressed all along, and the action of selling Ethereum to buy Bitcoin is obvious. Ethereum has become the cash machine for portfolio rebalancing. The risk-averse money is flowing into Bitcoin, which is the most straightforward signal.
On the other hand, supply is still increasing. Staked tokens are being unlocked in batches, increasing the amount of sellable chips in the market, but the reasons for buyers to take them on haven't increased. When supply rises but demand remains stagnant, the price can only look for a lower level.
On-chain revenue hasn't kept up either. This round of DeFi hasn't produced any truly competitive blockbuster applications, so transaction fees haven't increased. Ethereum has lost its most tangible valuation pillar. No matter how hot the narrative is, someone actually has to pay on-chain.
So, I’m not buying at this level now. Before ETF funds start flowing back in, the price may look cheap when it drops, but there’s no support below. Catching a falling knife nine times out of ten means catching it in your own hand. Wait until funds really flow back before talking about bottom-fishing. As for my position, I’m just observing and not adding.Regarding stablecoin news, I usually start by asking: why is money willing to stay here? Within the framework of interest rates and funding costs, Canada's draft focuses on defining the boundaries of stablecoins as payment instruments, rather than turning them into interest-bearing accounts.
According to reports, Canada released a stablecoin regulatory draft on October 24, prohibiting issuers from paying direct or indirect returns to holders, including platform activity rewards; requiring non-financial institution issuers to register with the Bank of Canada, reserve 1:1 in high-quality liquid assets, keep reserves in banks, and support redemption at face value. This is still a draft.
My speculation is: if traditional cash instruments still yield returns and holders cannot receive issuer rewards, then the motivation for users to simply park funds will weaken; if interest rates decline, this opportunity cost may shrink. Therefore, I am more focused on how it filters the use of funds rather than viewing it as a new source of funds.
On the other hand, reserves entering banks and supporting redemption at face value means bank custody and redemption chains will become more important, but this does not mean risks disappear. My inclination is that this design favors positioning as a payment settlement tool and may not favor expansion through rewards. What macro factor is everyone most concerned about now: the opportunity cost of holding coins determined by interest rates, or the liquidity status of the banking system?$ETH Today both ETH and SOL feel quite constrained, but the reasons for their constraints are different, so don't get them confused.
ETH is "someone is secretly accumulating, but the ETF is openly selling." In October, the ETF outflow was 1.18 billion, and veterans like Arthur Hayes have fully exited, pressing the price around 2320. On the other hand: staking volume hit a record high, with 35.9% of supply locked up, whales are quietly withdrawing tokens below 2300, and the RSI has already dropped to the oversold zone of 29-35. 2320 is the critical line for ETH; a daily close above it means a false sell-off, but a heavy volume break below points to 2200.
$SOL SOL is "on-chain growth is increasing, but marginal buying is retreating." The price struggles between 100-103, with a 24-hour low touching 98.6. The US spot SOL ETF had a single-day net outflow of 8.51 million, with Bitwise alone withdrawing 5.71 million. More importantly, on-chain activity shows a large holder transferred 240,000 SOL (about 25.3 million USD) to three exchanges within 24 hours, simultaneously closing longs and opening shorts. 100 dollars is the neckline; if the close breaks below it, the next supports are 98.6 and even 80.
My stance: Watch ETH for a close at 2320, and SOL for a close at 100. Do not bottom-fish either; wait for $BTC to give the signal. #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ Next week, there is only one most important thing for BTC: whether 79,220 can hold. All other data should be interpreted around this level. First, the news. Using today's data as a baseline: Price side, BTC is at $80,933.5, 24h +1.42%, past week -0.30%, 20-day range 79,220.1 to 86,693.7 — 79,220 is the new 20-day low. Capital side, ETF net inflow for the eighth consecutive day (+29.2 million), 5-day +202.3 million, 10-day +299.4 million. Sentiment side, Fear & Greed Index from 51 to 54. Macro side, Dollar 101.81 (+0.20%), Gold 4,007.9 (-1.29%), S&P 500 7,623.68 (-0.52%). Next, look at the capital impact. 79,220 is critical because it is the dividing line between capital and price: holding it means ETF buying is enough to absorb selling pressure, confirming the bottom area; breaking it means macro pressure exceeds capital support, and the correction will continue. In both cases, ETF capital data is the most important verification indicator. Implications for BTC: Simplify next week's judgment into two scenarios — Scenario A: 79,220 holds + ETF continues inflow = bottom area, can recover toward 86,694; Scenario B: 79,220 breaks + ETF turns to outflow = correction continues, next support at 77,000. The current situation is closer to the early stage of Scenario A. Franklin Templeton recently issued approximately $150 million worth of tokenized money market fund shares (sgBENJI) on the XRP Ledger, with all new shares transferred into a single wallet. This wallet currently holds nearly 193 million sgBENJI shares, valued at about $200 million based on transaction records of approximately $1.039 per share, a significant increase from the previous roughly 48 million shares. Concentrated holdings have drawn attention but highlight institutional demand. The concentration of new shares in a single wallet is noteworthy. This may reflect a consolidated account managed by a large investor or custodian, but it also underscores the growing institutional demand for tokenized cash management products. Franklin Templeton's sgBENJI fund is part of its Benji platform, offering yield-bearing on-chain exposure based on U.S. Treasury securities. The XRP Ledger's low fees and fast settlement make it an attractive venue for such large transfers. This move is part of a broader trend of asset management firms tokenizing traditional funds to leverage blockchain liquidity and 24/7 settlement. For example, BlackRock's BUIDL fund on Ethereum has also seen significant inflows. Franklin Templeton's choice of the XRP Ledger both diversifies the ecosystem and highlights the network's enterprise-grade positioning. Impact on RWA tokenization The $150 million issuance indicates that tokenized money market funds are moving from proof of concept to meaningful scale. This also brings operational considerations: large holdings in a single wallet may pose concentration risk.Nowadays, everyone should be a global landlord, especially a landlord in Tokyo, Japan. If you choose those one-bedroom essential housing units, you can get a 4% annual return, and that's the return after deducting all kinds of expenses.
However, the sad thing is, now you only need to buy U.S. Treasury bonds to achieve this skill, and you can even buy the 10-year ones 😂
The magic of the capital market lies hereCalculate it: a nominal position of $99,800 at 20x leverage corresponds to a margin of about $4,991, which is not equal to the actual invested amount. Core Trader 02 just opened a long $META position; I consider this trade as using less principal to take on larger volatility, rather than "throwing down $100,000."
① Position size is 160.256 units, with a nominal value of $99,817.08. This is the exposure due to price fluctuations, not the wallet balance.
② With 20x leverage, roughly estimated by the reciprocal, a reverse price movement of about 5% approaches the liquidation threshold. The actual liquidation point is also affected by margin mode and maintenance margin, so this cannot be taken as an exact liquidation line.
③ Reference price is $622.8602. This is not a confirmed average transaction price, so I won’t use it directly to calculate position P&L.
My judgment is that the key to this trade lies in how much drawdown the margin can withstand, rather than how large the nominal amount is; next, I want to observe whether the position size and margin are adjusted synchronously.$CL crude oil looks bearish today, 98 is the next battleground
After this round of crude oil rally, I actually want to wait for a rebound to short, with the initial target at 98, and if broken, extend further down.
Previously, the oil price rise was mainly supported by news about the Middle East situation, strait transportation, and rising freight costs. But the more the news is hyped, the harder it is for the price to continue climbing, indicating that the sentiment premium has already been digested at a high level.
Now the market looks more like a repeated tug-of-war at a high level, with increasing pressure above. As long as the rebound can't surpass the previous high, the bulls are only making short-term resistance, not genuinely pushing for a breakthrough.
Moreover, demand is not as strong as imagined; high oil prices themselves suppress consumption, and inventory and macro data do not provide confidence for a sustained surge.
So my approach is to short in batches if the rebound fails to surpass the previous high; the initial target is 98, and if it breaks, look around 97. Quick in and out for the short term, stop loss once the key resistance level is broken, no stubborn fighting.
#中东原油运输恢复，油价为何仍居高位？ Technical level calibration (Sina re-quoted technical analysis, based on the 10/22 writing benchmark; still valid when compared with real-time levels): The S&P has retreated from the historical high of 7,830, with support levels at 7,620 (October low), 7,500 (September low), 7,340 (200-period EMA), 7,300 (July low), and resistance at 7,700 and 7,830; The Nasdaq 100 (futures-based) key levels are 29,240 (currently testing), 29,000, 28,745 (mid-September pre-launch low), 28,190, and 28,000 (around the 200-day moving average). The Nasdaq futures I recorded at 15:15 was 29,087.58—already below 29,240, with the next defense line at 29,000, and below that 28,745. This is the most critical structural information for tech stocks tonight. #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ $BTC family, BTC looks like it's stabilizing around 80,000, but the data doesn't lie: 64% of net long positions are built above 81,993. After the price breaks below this level, Bitcoin longs liquidate $85.9 million, while shorts only $9.16 million. Simply put, longs are cutting losses, shorts are cashing in.
QCP gives support below at 78,000 and resistance above at 86,000. $ETH ETF holders' cost zone is between 80,000 and 81,500. This means 80,000 is not a bottom but a psychological battlefield for holders—if it doesn't hold, the ETF crowd will start to waver.
The options market is also voting with its feet: the 1-day 25 Delta Skew hit 11.3%, showing a clear rise in downside hedging demand. Smart money is buying insurance; are you still betting on a rebound?
In short: before the FOMC, BTC long positions are just an ATM for shorts. Don't be the one getting taken out.$ETH
The Glamsterdam Hoodi testnet upgrade originally scheduled to activate today was canceled by the Ethereum Foundation, with no new date given. The reason is an EIP-8037; ChainSecurity found that its gas billing changes have compatibility and security issues with deployed contracts, involving 13 contracts. This matter is more important here than it looks from the market. If the testnet can't be stabilized, the mainnet schedule will only be delayed.
The market is actually quiet. ETH current price is 2331, 24h low 2293, only down half a percent, the perpetual fee rate is 0.006% lying flat, neither bulls nor bears are pushing hard. Tonight is the FOMC, followed by Microsoft and Meta earnings reports; the whole market's attention is there, and ETH's own bad news barely makes a splash.
Upgrades like this are usually noise; only when they really get stuck do they get priced in. Anyway, I'm not in a hurry to act, I'll wait for it to find its own direction.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 First, let's pour some cold water and not rush to take "ETH's next round could reach $62,000" as a market forecast. Tom Lee Tracker relayed that Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee, when explaining why BitMine wants to maintain maximum Ethereum exposure, said that ETH has risen 50 to 200 times in previous crypto cycles; even with a more conservative estimate of 25 times, the price would be about $62,000. I see this more as an explanation of the holding logic, not a verified target price.
I tend to think the market easily overestimates this statement. One reason is that the historical multiples occurred in past cycles, and calling 25 times "more conservative" does not prove it can be replicated in the next round; changes in base, capital scale, and market environment may cause the multiple to fail. Another reason is that BitMine wants to maintain high exposure and naturally needs to clarify why it is optimistic about ETH. This reasoning stimulates sentiment, but if ordinary users only remember $62,000 and ignore the assumptions behind it, their judgment can easily go astray.
Of course, I don't take it directly as a bearish signal. If we later see Ethereum's actual usage demand continue to grow and capital willing to hold long-term, rather than just discussions driven by target prices, I will reassess this multiple projection. For now, I want to focus on whether the supporting logic can be fulfilled, rather than celebrating the price prematurely. Do you guys lean bullish or bearish on Tom Lee's $62,000 judgment this time? What are your reasons?Update on $PONS key figures:
Daily trading volume: $24M (-4% on the previous day)
Daily trading revenue: $35K
RH market share: N/A
$27K added to buyback and burn vault. 0.017% of TOTAL supply.
Over $200K ready to be deployed for buyback and burns. 0.125% of TOTAL supplyTerm Structure Radar
The first-level positive basis for $BTC corresponds to a very small scale. The near-month buy and far-month sell quote spread is +0.96%, with the first-level pairing scale about $8; based on a 10,000 scale, this level only covers about 0.08%. With such a small capacity, shocks will quickly erode the spread.
The first-level positive basis for $ETH corresponds to a very small scale. The near-month buy and far-month sell quote spread is +0.76%, with the first-level pairing scale about $991; based on a 10,000 scale, this level only covers about 10%. Capacity sets the upper limit.
For $SOL, the marked basis is positive, but the near-month buy and far-month sell first-level quotes are inverted. Near-month annualized is +8.44%, far-month annualized is +0.48%, with the near end more expensive; the marked near-far spread is +0.11%, but the near-month buy and far-month sell first-level quote spread is -1.12%. The marked and executable directions are opposite, so trading should not be based on the mark.Azure guidance at constant currency is about 44%–45%, with this quarter's capital expenditure expected to exceed approximately 50 billion. Closed at about 524.51 on Friday. For $MSFT, I won't yet consider the "growth versus spending" as a final answer.
This Wednesday after the US Eastern market close (early Thursday Beijing time), FY27Q1 results will be released.
The company revenue guidance is about 89.85–90.95 billion, Wall Street consensus roughly 90.6–90.7 billion, adjusted EPS about 4.71.
Azure's new growth guidance is about 44%–45% (last quarter restated about 42%); the CFO said in July that this quarter's capital expenditure is expected to exceed about 50 billion, which includes lease accounting, so don't assume it's all cash outflow.
Closed at 524.51 on Friday (about +0.66%, opened about 517.75/high about 525.77/low about 515.70), and closed about 521 on Thursday, down about 2.2%.
I believe Azure demand remains strong, and I think the market will first focus on "how much growth is gained from spending 50 billion," rather than assuming the AI returns are already fully priced in around 524.
Tonight at the US Eastern market open, watch for support around 516–525; if it holds, then look for a move back to about 526–533; if the daily close breaks below about 515.7, expect a move toward about 510/500.
Do you believe more that Azure can cover the spending, or that the spending will first hit the valuation?
$MSFT #微软Azure增长43%，AI商业化能否提速？ Core Long-Short Logic
Dimension 📈 Potential Support 📉 Dominant Resistance
Macro The probability of the FOMC holding steady in October is about 90%, with no immediate risk of rate hikes in the short term. The probability of a rate hike in December is 80-90%; oil price at $111; risk of US-Iran conflict
Capital Market ETF weekly net inflow of $301 million; retail capital inflow provides short-term liquidity. Cumulative net outflow of $773.5 million in October; retail inflow may include pressure from selling to break even
Technical SMA near 365 has rebounded; low volatility convergence is usually followed by directional choice. Four consecutive daily declines, three consecutive weekly declines; moving averages in bearish alignment; rebound basis is invalid before 80,700 is recovered
Sentiment Fear index at 50, not extremely panicked. The forecast market believes the probability of falling to 87,500 by the end of the month is only 10% $BTC $ETH $ZEC #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ BTC at the 80,000 mark broke easily, hitting a low of 79,146 during the session, with four consecutive daily declines and three consecutive weekly declines, which looks quite scary. But what really makes me frown is not the price, but the liquidation structure — 728 million was liquidated across the entire network in 24 hours, with longs accounting for 84%, and BTC itself bore over 234 million in long liquidations. To put it simply, this isn’t someone actively dumping; leverage is lifting itself out. The ETF side is also worrying, with a net outflow of 770 million in two days, mostly from BlackRock and Fidelity, as institutions shrank positions ahead of the FOMC. Ethereum followed the hit, hovering around 2,320, with October ETF outflows exceeding 1 billion, but there’s an interesting contrast on-chain: exchanges saw a single-day net outflow of 170,000 ETH, the largest in four months, while staking remains at historic highs. What’s being sold is what can be sold; what’s locked is not intended to be sold. My stance: I won’t short unless BTC breaks below 79,000; I won’t go long unless it recovers above 81,000. I’m watching closely before the FOMC decision; at this level, volatility can easily hit both sides. #BTC The Ethereum Foundation sold again, and they chose the busiest moment.
On-chain data shows that an address associated with the Foundation, 0x5CB...22059, sold 2,785 ETH through Cowswap two hours ago, which was worth 6.42 million USD at the transaction price. 2,785 ETH is not a small amount; it's a position large enough to create a significant dip in the order book.
What’s more noteworthy is the timing. This address had just topped up ETH on October 12, when the coin price was still 2,534 USD. Looking at today, it has dropped nearly 9%. The calls to buy haven’t stopped, but the sell orders moved first.
The Foundation’s usual explanation is normal treasury management, which is reasonable, but treasury management has one common trait: selling only when it can be sold. When the market pulls back, liquidity remains, and retail sentiment hasn’t collapsed, that’s the best window. If they really wanted to hold long-term, why not wait for a rebound?
For ordinary holders, there’s no need to over-interpret, but two things are worth remembering. First, large addresses always act faster than announcements; on-chain data doesn’t lie. Second, don’t use the fact that institutions don’t sell as a reason not to cut your losses.
Check the current price position yourself by opening the candlestick chart. The position is yours, and so must be your judgment. The Ethereum Foundation's associated address sold 2,785 ETH two hours ago, worth 6.42 million USD, via Cowswap.
This address had just topped up on October 12, when ETH was still at 2,534 USD, and it has dropped nearly 9% since then.
The timing was quite precise—selling when the market was pulling back and there were still buyers willing to take the coins. The treasury management explanation itself is reasonable, but the selling point never lies; announcements may be delayed, but the blockchain never is.$ETH capital flow: BTC has buyers, ETH is still a cash-out machine
BTC ETF sees net inflows, ETH ETF suffers net outflows for the fourth consecutive week. No need for lengthy explanations.
The problem with ETH is not that it’s "falling," but that no one is buying while it’s falling. BTC ETFs have futures and options as buffers, with longer leverage trigger chains; ETH exposure is concentrated in perpetual contracts, so when funds withdraw, marginal selling pressure directly breaks through the price level.
Therefore, the $2,300 line is not a technical level, but an emotional one. ETF outflows are not narrowing; whether it holds or not depends not on analysis but on whether there are real buyers with actual money stepping in.
Watch: ETH ETF single-day net flow this week. If outflows don’t shrink, don’t tell me it’s "oversold."