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Ethereum is currently going through its toughest phase. It has been the largest single liquidation target for three consecutive days on the liquidation leaderboard, with 6.97 million yesterday and 4.77 million the day before. Each time, the longs were wiped out, indicating that there is too much leverage betting on a rebound at this level. Technically, 2350 has already been broken; the next support is at 2250, and if that breaks, it will be 2100. On the fundamentals side, there is a piece of positive news: AI agents participated in the rescue work of the Glamsterdam fork. This detail is quite interesting, showing that Ethereum's development process has started to be assisted by AI, but technological progress cannot save the short-term price. What Ethereum lacks now is not narrative but capital. As long as ETFs continue to see outflows, it won't outperform Bitcoin.My judgment on the $BTC cycle is very clear: the bear market is over, and we have now entered a structurally complex early bull phase.
Rather than repeatedly debating "whether the bottom has been reached," I am more concerned about why the early bull phase is still experiencing fluctuations and pullbacks?
Glassnode's 45 cycle indicators provide a clue: by the end of June, 82% fell into the historical "extremely cold" zone; by the week of October 5, 56% returned to neutral, while the warm and hot zones combined still accounted for less than 20%. This indicates that the indicators as a whole are moving away from extreme lows but are far from entering full exuberance.
The realized market cap share of BTC moving in the last 3 months has risen to about 21%. The structure of younger coins has somewhat recovered, but this does not equate to net inflows of new funds, nor does it guarantee a sharp price increase.
My core view is: leaving the bear market does not mean immediately entering the main upward wave. $ETH #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 A replenishment of 9.21 million USDC at midnight pulled a long whale holding $397 million back from the edge of the cliff — but what’s really worth watching is not how much more it added, but that ETH’s liquidation price was forcibly pushed down from $2256 to $2181. $ETH once dipped to $2282, leaving only about $100 buffer to the new liquidation price; this is not an attack, it’s defense. The on-chain analyst Yu Jin tracked this address holding 115,473 $ETH (about $272 million, liquidation price $2181) and 1,539.5 $BTC (about $124 million, liquidation price $70,396). The key insight is: margin replenishment does not change direction, it only buys time. If the $272 million ETH long position is liquidated, the impact will directly transmit to spot and futures markets, and the $70,396 BTC defense line is also a dark line that must be watched. The market most easily underestimates the signal significance of this kind of “passive defensive whale.” Retail investors see the whale still adding funds and thus assume the bottom is stable; but the fact is, the longs need constant blood transfusions to maintain their positions, indicating the downside risk is not eliminated, only postponed. This is a typical leverage structure vulnerability — the closer the price is to the liquidation concentration zone, the higher the probability of amplified volatility. The linkage between $BTC and $ETH is especially sensitive at this moment; any spike could trigger a chain reaction. My judgment is: $2200 is the emotional threshold, $2181 is the structural threshold. The former determines the narrative, the latterIn the past six months, the average cost for people buying BTC has risen to 76,000, with unrealized gains grinding down from 8.7% last week to 5.9%. The price dropped about 1,000, but the cost rose about 1,100, making it obviously tougher for those who bought in later. But 76,000 is still far from this current trade, and I won’t use it as an excuse to keep adding longs around 80,000. Long-term holders have a cost basis of only 48,600; they can afford to wait, but I don’t plan to hold this short-term position that long.
Based on the current instant noodles (market conditions), I still prefer to wait for a pullback to add longs. The 15-minute 20 moving average is at 80,167; it was pushed down and then pulled back this morning. Now I want to see if the 80,150–80,200 range can hold. I’ll pause here and try a small position; if it falls below 79,800, I’ll admit I was wrong. I’ll take partial profits at 80,800, and the rest I’ll test around 81,000—don’t get greedy thinking you can reach 82,000 right after making some gains. Damn, the previous rebounds were just like this: when it rises, you think the profit is too little; when it falls back, you hesitate to sell.
Right now, the last thing I want to do is chase above 80,400 and comfort myself with the 76,000 cost line. If 80,000 is lost again, the reason to add longs here weakens, so I’ll exit first. If it really falls to 79,300–79,200, I won’t just hang on to add; it’s easy to get stuck near the previous low, so I’ll see if it can pull back. Conversely, if it can’t break through 80,800–81,000 again, I’ll consider switching to shorting for a short-term trade, exiting above 81,300 and covering near 80,200. The Federal Reserve meeting is on the 27th–28th this week, so I don’t want to hold positions too long for now.Will Bitcoin's "digital gold" consensus shatter? Don't be quick to shake your head; what you really need to watch is where the money is shifting. The "faith wavering" you see—could it actually be that capital preferences are quietly changing seats? Over the past couple of days, looking through the order books of BTC, ETH, and several altcoins, I haven't been so concerned about "when quantum computing will arrive." That narrative is too distant, more like a risk poster hanging on the wall. What really made me pause is this: the market is currently trading not on whether Bitcoin will go to zero, but on whether risk appetite is still willing to pay a premium for the "old story."✨ The original text lists seven points: technology, governance, lack of intrinsic value, halving budget, regulation, cycles, and a dialectical conclusion. It sounds comprehensive but can easily mislead people into thinking "BTC is doomed." My own understanding is that it speaks to the long-term fragility of consensus, not a short-term price script. These two things are very different. Let's look at the facts first: BTC's signatures rely on ECDSA over secp256k1. Once quantum algorithms mature, old addresses with exposed public keys indeed face the risk of being reverse-engineered, involving millions of coins. The difficulty isn't "whether there is a quantum-resistant solution," but coordination: developers, miners, exchanges, whales, wallets—there is no unified entity to make a final decision. A hard fork freezing old addresses would touch on "private keys as property rights"; not doing so might mean watching assets being unlocked. This contradiction is real. But from the perspective of capital preference, I would ask one more question: has the market priced in this risk in advance? So far, it hasn't. ETF channels, corporate balance sheets, and institutional custody are still pushing BTC toward "allocatable" In the same market conditions, BTC, ETH, and CORE have diverged, indicating that the current crypto market is no longer "rising and falling together," but rather that capital quality, narrative strength, and leverage structure are being repriced.
BTC remains a safe-haven anchor. Despite pressure from macro headwinds, ETF outflows, and leverage liquidations, its market cap dominance has risen to 60%, showing that capital is still concentrating in the safest liquidity center. ETH, on the other hand, reveals high beta and capital weaknesses: continuous ETF net outflows, with rebounds driven more by short covering than new buying; the weakening ETH/BTC ratio indicates institutional capital prefers BTC's "digital gold" narrative. CORE, as a BTCFi asset, is more elastic but its pricing depends more on ecosystem buybacks, staking flywheels, and BTCFi hype, making it more susceptible to amplified volatility from large holders' positions and sentiment when capital depth is insufficient.
In practice, it is currently unwise to simply interpret this divergence as "who is stronger," but rather to watch three signals: whether BTC can hold key support, whether ETH ETFs resume net inflows, and whether CORE ecosystem revenue buybacks materialize. BTC determines direction, ETH determines risk appetite, and CORE determines elasticity. Positioning is better suited to using BTC as a benchmark, confirming ETH ETF inflows, and CORE only for small positions tracking the narrative, avoiding excessive leverage in low liquidity.
$BTC $ETH BTC short-term holders' unrealized profits are declining; will the $76,000 cost line be breached?
Currently, BTC short-term holders with holding periods under 6 months have an average cost of about $76,000. If the price continues to fall, they may turn from profit to loss.
I judge that the likelihood of the short-term $76,000 cost line being effectively broken is low; BTC is more likely to fluctuate around $80,000.
My basis:
1. The current price is about 79.8k, still about 5% above 76k, with multiple supports above including ETF/Treasury cost (81–81.5k) and True Market Mean (about 77.5–78k). Breaking below would require continuous volume expansion.
2. Although unrealized profits have narrowed to 5.9%, the overall profitable state has not been broken since mid-August. History shows that after a brief pullback, prices often recover rather than immediately turning into widespread unrealized losses.
3. The continuous buying pushing up costs itself indicates demand; the Fed is very likely to maintain rates this week, and the macro environment lacks strong downward catalysts, so the market tends to digest and then move sideways.
4. Around 80k has been tested multiple times forming short-term equilibrium; after volatility compression, it is easier to first fluctuate rather than break unilaterally.
Trading advice: sell high and buy low near $80,000.
Lightly buy on a pullback to 79.5k, reduce positions on a rebound to 81–81.5k; if it breaks through 81.5k, target 82k; if it falls below 79k, wait and see.
Keep position control within 30%, and wait for clear signals after this week's Fed and PCE before increasing exposure. #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $BCH
Smaller pullback, are established assets beginning to gain safe-haven preference?
In this morning's spot snapshot, BCH's 24-hour price change was -0.50%, ranging between 270.5—282.9 USDT.
The decline is less than BTC's, indicating relatively stable performance this time, but payment tokens still belong to risk assets. Business use cases and short-term capital choices should not be conflated.
If the market continues to test lows while maintaining an advantage, evidence of resilience increases; if the rebound lags and is followed by a catch-up drop, it is not appropriate to label a single resistance to decline as a safe-haven attribute.The crash is straightforward. One cut clears the leverage, and the market becomes cleaner. What you really need to guard against is another kind of movement: the price rubbing back and forth at key levels, slowly draining your position through funding rates. Look at the current structure. BTC is around 80,400, down 4.37% over 30 days; ETH is at 2,331, down 13.35% over 30 days; SOL is at 101.6, down 16.59% over 30 days📉. The candlesticks are 30-minute intervals, with rebound bullish candles one after another, looking like a recovery. But if you extend the timeframe, the monthly declines for BTC and ETH have not been reversed by these few bullish candles. What’s more worth noting is the small print below: the bulls are paying. In the past 24 hours, crypto market liquidation volume ranged between $117 million and $133 million, with long positions accounting for 70%–80%, about $80 million to $106 million of bullish bets forcibly liquidated. Ethereum leads in liquidations, with ETH position liquidations between $39 million and $54 million, the largest single liquidation being an ETH long position of about $7 million. And ETH’s funding rate, despite the price dropping more than 8%, remains positive (+0.0008%). What does this mean? The bulls are not scared off and continue to pay to hold their positions. SOL is the same. Open interest is about $4.5 billion, with long accounts once reaching as high as 76.1%, but The "Leverage Hidden Risk" in PT Cycles: Behind High Yields, Why Is the Buffer Space Reduced to Just a Thin Layer?
Pendle's PT is often regarded as "fixed income," but once leverage is cycled in the lending market, even minor fluctuations can trigger massive liquidations.
Take $PENDLE's PT-reUSD as an example. In August 2026, the PT price dropped by only about 3%, yet it triggered approximately $36.39 million in liquidations on $MORPHO. This is not a protocol flaw but the result of some borrowers maxing out their cyclical leverage, compressing the liquidation buffer to less than 3%. When the safety cushion becomes paper-thin, even slight fluctuations can break through directly.
In response, $AAVE has advanced a proposal to extend the maturity of PT positions to February 2027 (by repaying old loans and opening new ones through flash loans). This alleviates the hard liquidation pressure but does not eliminate the high leverage risk.
As the main platform, MORPHO employs a conservative oracle design (taking the lower value between the "15-minute average price and the maturity convergence curve"), but it still cannot save positions with actively maxed-out leverage.
💡 Conclusion:
Holding PT spot until maturity is safe, but "repeated collateralization" with cyclical leverage is by no means a safety cushion. The more cycles, the thinner the buffer. When reviewing Pendle strategies, don't just focus on APY; first check the leverage multiple and liquidation buffer. When the buffer is exhausted, the principal will be liquidated as well.The official website still has the withdrawal portal up, but people are already running out.
Blast reached the regular withdrawal deadline today, with about 40.41 million USD left on the official cross-chain bridge, which is over 30% less than in early October.
The reason for shutting down the network was stated politely: operating costs exceed revenue, and no self-sustaining path could be found.
But the money didn’t follow the polite explanation. After this, if you want to withdraw, you have to interact with the bridge contract on Ethereum yourself—initiate withdrawal, submit a state proof, wait for a one-day challenge period, then add a final confirmation transaction. Ordinary people probably won’t click that OptimismPortal 👀
$BTC
$ETH Capital aspect: The quality of the ETF's "weekly positive turnaround" needs to be discounted
Last week (October 19-23), the Bitcoin spot ETF recorded a net inflow of about $301 million, ending the previous two consecutive weeks of outflows. However, the internal structure of this "positive turnaround" is unhealthy:
· On October 22 alone, there was an outflow of $137.9 million, accounting for the majority of the $1.07 billion inflow over two days.
· The cumulative net outflow for October is still about $314 million; the weekly positive turnaround is merely a repair of the previous severe outflows, not a trend of capital returning.
Another divergence worth noting: Over the past 30 days, retail investors' net BTC inflow to major exchanges doubled from $5.5 billion to $10.75 billion, hitting a six-month high; meanwhile, whales' net inflow dropped from $5.9 billion to $3.8 billion. KuCoin interprets this as— the surge in retail funds provides short-term support, but if its nature is to reduce positions during the rebound, selling pressure above will gradually emerge as prices rebound. In other words, the current "support" may contain a large amount of chips waiting to be freed, rather than firmly bullish funds.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ The latest Glassnode spot CVD data is worth a close study. CVD measures the strength of active buying and selling: a positive value indicates buyers are more eager, while a negative value indicates sellers are more eager. In 2025, the 30-day average CVD across all exchanges was about negative $4.2 billion, and it never turned positive for a single day throughout the year! This indicates that active selling dominated for a long time, especially Binance, which contributed a large amount of selling pressure. But changes have already appeared! In the last 90 days, the average negative pressure has narrowed to less than one-tenth of the 2025 level. Note! A weakening selling pressure does not mean that buying has taken over the market. The latest data shows that Coinbase, Binance, and all exchanges' CVD have simultaneously fallen back below the zero line. This means that although the market has improved somewhat, active buying still lacks sustainability. My cycle judgment remains unchanged: BTC has entered the early bull phase, but the early bull phase does not mean the main upward wave has started immediately. Consolidation, pullbacks, and chip reshuffling are all processes that a complex early bull phase may experience. The key question around $80,000 now is not whether sellers still have chips, but whether buyers can continue to absorb them. Sellers are no longer in such a hurry, but buyers also seem reluctant to open their wallets. This long and short game in the early bull phase has just entered a critical stage! $BTC $ETH $ZEC #BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？ #BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ #BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 Retail investors sent 10.75 billion to Binance in 30 days, while whales only have 3.8 billion left
◆BTC | Sell pressure is from retail investors
BTC is now 80,408, up 0.07% in 24 hours, high 80,952, low 79,369, touched 80,575 in the evening, holding above 80,400. CryptoQuant's Darkfost data today: retail investors' BTC sent to Binance in 30 days rose from 5.5 billion to 10.75 billion, a six-month high; whales dropped from 5.9 billion to 3.8 billion in the same period. Retrace to 80,300–80,400 hourly line to stabilize and connect, close above 80,575 aiming for 80,952; close below 80,000 withdraw, close below 79,368 invalidates.
◆ETH | Old whales only sent 1,500 coins
ETH is now 2,330, up 0.06% in 24 hours, high 2,365, low 2,293. Today, 2015 ICO old whales moved 5,000 coins within 2 hours, only 1,500 coins entered exchanges, about 3.45 million USD, compared to 169,770 coins net outflow in a single day a few days ago, not even the same scale. Reclaim 2,340 to look at 2,365, retrace to 2,310–2,330 to stabilize and connect; close below 2,293 exit.
Sell pressure is in retail investors' hands, whales have not let go yet.$BTC
BTC is now hovering around 80400, climbing back above 80,000 after four consecutive weekly declines. The 24-hour low was 79377; honestly, it hasn't fully stabilized yet.
What concerns me more is that Galaxy's figure: 11.1 million BTC addresses are of unknown ownership. With a 21 million cap, more than half are unaccounted for. I was stunned for a few seconds when I first saw this number.
The Federal Reserve meeting is early Wednesday morning; before the 80,000 level settles, there will likely be back-and-forth fluctuations. Whether to take a side or not, I'll wait for it to move first.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $ETH is now at 2330, down more than half from the high of 4946 last August. The monthly chart is down 13%, the weekly chart down 4%, and the daily chart is being suppressed by the MA20, which looks really tough. But what I want to say is the other side: whales are withdrawing tokens below 2300, exchange withdrawals are at a high level, Lido staking volume is hitting new highs, with 35.9% of supply locked in staking — although the yield has dropped to only 2.6%. ETFs had a net outflow of 1.18 billion in October, leveraged longs were liquidated by tens of millions, these are facts. Arthur Hayes has liquidated his position, but he is a trader, not a believer, so his actions do not indicate a problem with ETH fundamentals. Money has rotated into AI, U.S. Treasuries, and other FOMC-related assets; this is rotation, not exit. JPM Coin has expanded to the Ethereum mainnet, BlackRock and JPMorgan use it as a settlement layer, and the stablecoin battlefield of 143 billion is also here. The daily RSI at 29-35 is close to oversold, MACD shows a bearish alignment but there is a nascent bullish divergence. Declines with volume and rebounds with shrinking volume is a typical weak pattern. Resistance is at 2360-2400, only above that can we look at 2450-2500; breaking below 2290 targets 2200-2280. A low-volume rebound near 2330 to 2360-2380 can be lightly shorted with a stop loss at 2400; break below 2290 with volume to chase shorts. Bulls wait for a volume-increasing bullish candle at 2300 to try again, stop loss at 2280. Glamsterdam's Hoodi testnet was delayed due to EIP security issues, which is also weighing on sentiment. Stagflation signals rising, December rate cut path becomes subtle】
To judge the next step of the ECB, besides watching CPI and meeting minutes, there is an underestimated input—the monthly Consumer Expectations Survey (CES). It covers about 19,000 households in 11 Eurozone countries and is a direct source cited in ECB policy assessments, but the market rarely focuses on it.
The data released on October 23 for September shows: the median 12-month inflation expectation of households rose to 3.1% (previous 3.0%), perceived inflation over the past 12 months rose to 3.6%; 3-year and 5-year inflation expectations remained steady at 2.9% and 2.5%, respectively. The problem lies in the combined pattern: the growth expectation for the same period dropped from -1.2% to -1.5%, the 12-month unemployment rate expectation rose from 11.0% to 11.3%, and the proportion of households expecting net tightening of credit conditions continues to increase.
Rising prices, a cooling economy, and tight credit appearing simultaneously is a typical policy dilemma. It is not enough to make the ECB turn hawkish, but enough to turn the December meeting’s rate cut from "routine" to "debated." If the swap market’s pricing of the Eurozone is too dovish, there is room for correction, primarily affecting Eurozone bond yields and EUR, followed by impacting Eurozone growth stock valuations through the denominator side.
What to watch next: the October CES will be released on November 27; whether ECB officials cite "rising inflation expectations" as an argument to pause rate cuts in speeches this week is the first verification point.#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ 1. HBM high value-added product volume increase: HBM4 is gradually shipping, AI server demand is strong, HBM, server DRAM, and eSSD drive up overall product average selling price and profit margin, which is the largest source of profit elasticity. In Q2, management mentioned that some high value-added HBM orders were postponed to be delivered in the second half of the year, and this revenue is expected to be realized in Q3. This is exactly what I have been emphasizing: the early bull phase does not equal the main upward wave! Glassnode data shows that the cross-asset return champion in 2026 has rotated three times: ① Q1: Gold and silver led. ② Spring to July: U.S. stocks took over. ③ The last approximately 10 weeks: BTC leads in the rolling 60-day return rankings. Meanwhile, the spot trading volume of tokenized gold on crypto exchanges has fallen from the February peak to about 20%. But don't misunderstand! Leading relative returns do not mean prices only rise without falling, nor do they prove that gold funds flow directly into BTC. What really deserves attention now is the $80,300 level! Glassnode data shows that around $80,000–$81,500 is the average cost concentration of U.S. spot ETFs and some corporate treasuries. This means BTC is testing a cost zone of some important holders. My judgment remains clear: the bear market has left, the early bull phase is unfolding, but the structure is still complex, with volatility, pullbacks, and rotation inevitable. Holding $80,000 and forming effective support is beneficial for subsequently challenging the $85,000–$87,500 supply zone; if the daily chart breaks below, be wary of further testing near $77,600. The early bull phase does not mean no pullbacks, but whether demand can retake the market after pullbacks! This time, what do you think about the test near $80,000? $BTC $ETH $ZEC #BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？ #BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重$BTC profit retracement, increased holding cost, should you continue holding????
CryptoQuant analyst: The average cost for BTC short-term holders holding less than 6 months is about $76,000, with a current unrealized profit of about 5.9%.
In the past week, unrealized profit narrowed from 8.7% to 5.9%, BTC dropped about $1,000, but the average cost of short-term chips actually rose about $1,100.
The cost for short-term holders is 1.56 times that of long-term holders ($76,000 vs $48,600), the ratio rose from 1.54 to 1.56, mainly due to the rise in short-term cost while long-term holders' cost remained basically flat.
💥💥💥 If BTC falls below $76,000, chips bought in the past 6 months will overall turn unrealized loss; the last time this happened was in mid-August this year.
One thing to note here: the average cost is only a group mean, some investors who entered at high levels are still at a loss.
$ETH is the same, ETH profit retracement + increased holding cost, for traders holding for 6 months, the holding price is getting closer to the cost line, about to break below the cost line!
#BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ "Multi-chain, one coin" is not just a slogan; it is a commitment to leaving risk on the bridge.
BNB Chain confirmed in its technical documentation update on October 22 that a brand new Layer 1 (officially codenamed New L1) will run in parallel with the existing BSC, compatible with EVM, targeting a block interval of 200 milliseconds and transaction pre-confirmation around 20 milliseconds. It will not issue new tokens; BNB will continue to serve the three functions of Gas, staking, and governance. The testnet is targeted for the end of 2026, and the mainnet for early 2027. On October 25, Zhao Changpeng set the tone with the phrase "Multiple chains, one coins." My judgment is that this is not a narrative upgrade aimed at retail investors but a defensive architectural restructuring—it aims to capture the territory of high-frequency trading and AI agents, rather than telling another "new public chain" story. For this reason, it will not change BNB's price trajectory in the short term but will shift the ecosystem's largest single point of risk from the consensus layer to the cross-chain bridge. #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ $BNB $BTC $ETH #中东原油运输恢复，油价为何仍居高位？
Many people think that once the shipping lanes reopen, oil prices will quickly fall, but the reality is not so. Transport recovery ≠ elimination of geopolitical risks; this is the core logic of the current crude oil market.
Although tanker traffic has warmed up, the deep-rooted conflicts among Middle Eastern parties remain unresolved. The market continuously prices in the potential disruption risk of the Strait of Hormuz, so the geopolitical premium still exists. Additionally, global crude inventories remain generally low, and refined product supply is tight. If a sudden disturbance occurs, it is difficult to quickly fill the gap. Coupled with rising shipping insurance and freight costs, the overall crude oil trade cost is pushed higher.
My view: In the short term, supply and demand fundamentals ease, but risk premiums are unlikely to clear all at once. High oil prices will continue to support inflation expectations, indirectly suppressing risk assets, and the crypto market will also continue to be disturbed by macroeconomic expectations.
Contract strategy: Do not blindly short crude oil just based on the news of shipping lane reopening. The high-level oscillation pattern means chasing longs is risky; wait for geopolitical sentiment to cool down and inventories to continue rising before considering short opportunities, strictly use stop-losses, and control position size. There are only three days left until the interest rate meeting, and right now I feel that neither the bulls nor the bears dare to hold positions until the meeting ends. The main issue is that I don't really know what the narrative around $BTC is right now.
The previous logic was anti-inflation, digital gold; in the past, when interest rates rose, $BTC actually surged strongly. Later, it became no different from other financial instruments—whenever rates went up, liquidity was immediately drained!
This year is even stranger. When rates rose in September, $BTC once again rose against the trend. But when the market started expecting further rate hikes, Bitcoin began a sharp decline plus a slow downtrend these past few days.
So when some brothers asked me whether to hold their positions until the interest rate meeting day, I can only say that if it were me, I probably wouldn’t. The market is just too chaotic; both long and short positions can be reasonably justified here.
It’s even possible that near the end of the year, with the midterm elections coming, there could be a big shakeout hitting both bulls and bears, making it tough for us to even get through the year.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #Apple's New CEO Faces the First Performance Report for iPhone 18 After the U.S. market closes on November 2, Apple will release its FY2026 Q4 earnings report. This earnings report is packed with key points: first is the initial sales of the iPhone 18 Pro series, which is the first major "test" performance report since the new CEO John Ternus took office. The market is watching closely; on one hand, there is concern that rising storage costs will eat into profits, and on the other, fear that Apple might fall behind in the AI race. Looking at the market, tokenized Apple stocks AAPL and xAAPL both dipped about 1%, showing clear risk aversion ahead of the earnings report. My personal view is that Apple is currently in a very awkward "transition" period. The supply chain and hardware foundation left from the Cook era are still intact, so the phones will definitely still sell, but the market's biggest fear is that there will be "no surprises." With the world aggressively pushing AI large models, if Apple's AI progress remains limited to patching up Siri, Wall Street will definitely not buy it. The new CEO John Ternus comes from a hardware background; whether he can present a convincing AI strategy at the earnings call will directly determine Apple's upcoming valuation logic. Investors are very pragmatic now—no rabbit, no hawk release—and the slight dip in the market is the best proof. What impact will this have? In the short term, it is more about the transmission of macro sentiment. As a global tech stock bellwether, if Apple's earnings report bombs or the outlook for new products is pessimistic, it will directly suppress risk appetite in the U.S. tech sector. Once this cold wind blowsMy judgment on the BTC cycle is very clear: the bear market is over, and now we have entered a structurally complex early bull phase.
Rather than repeatedly debating "whether the bottom has been reached," I am more concerned about why the early bull phase is still experiencing fluctuations and pullbacks?
Glassnode's 45 cycle indicators provide a clue: by the end of June, 82% fell into the historical "extreme cold" zone; by the week of October 5, 56% returned to neutral, while the warm and hot zones combined still accounted for less than 20%. This indicates that the indicators as a whole are moving away from extreme lows but are far from entering full exuberance.
Looking at the previous chart: the realized market cap share of BTC moving in the last 3 months has risen to about 21%. The structure of younger coins has somewhat recovered, but this does not equal net inflow of new funds, nor does it guarantee a sharp price increase.
My core view is: leaving the bear market does not mean immediately entering the main upward wave.
The early bull phase is often accompanied by repeated turnover, digestion of selling pressure, and multiple pullbacks. Short-term declines will not automatically overturn the cycle judgment; what really needs caution is if the support after pullbacks continues to weaken and capital demand cannot recover.
Going forward, I am more focused on whether the pullback can hold key structures and whether cycle indicators can continue to expand from neutral to the warm zone. The bull has already entered, but it is just not yet ready to sprint 100 meters.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？
#BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿
#BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 PREDICT was listed pre-market by two exchanges within a week: On October 21, Aster listed the perpetual contract pre-market, and on October 25, Binance listed the PREDICTUSDT pre-market contract with 5x leverage and a total supply of 1 billion tokens.
The pre-market reference price is 1.63U, equivalent to a 1.63 billion FDV. I think 2 to 3 billion is the most realistic, while 5 billion depends on the market conditions.
More importantly is the allocation ratio. With the same 3B valuation, holding 5% in S1 versus 15% can make each PP's value differ by six times.
The League of Legends finals end on November 15; I guess the TGE will be in late November. PREDICT's pre-market contracts have been listed on two exchanges within a week.
On October 21, Aster launched PREDICT pre-market perpetual contracts, and on October 25, Binance also announced the launch of PREDICTUSDT pre-market contracts with up to 5x leverage. The total supply stated in the announcement is 1 billion tokens. The two exchanges listing pre-market contracts back-to-back basically means the project team is paving the way for the TGE.
The third-party pre-market reference price is currently 1.63U; multiplying by 1 billion tokens equals a $1.63 billion FDV. If the opening price reaches 2 billion, the token price would be 2U; 3 billion corresponds to 3U; 5 billion corresponds to 5U. I think 2 to 3 billion is the most realistic, while 5 billion would require strong market conditions and capital support.
But what really determines the actual returns is not the FDV, but how the tokens are distributed. Assuming S1 accumulates close to 500 million PP points, if S1 holds 5%, each PP would be about 0.16U; with 15%, it could reach 0.9U. For the same 3B valuation, that's a sixfold difference. So the allocation ratio is much more important than guessing the FDV.
In terms of timing, the League of Legends World Championship ends on November 15, with a $250,000 treasure chest event prize redemption after the match. I lean towards a TGE in late November, no later than before Christmas.
All of the above are scenario estimates; the actual outcome depends on the final Tokenomics, unlock ratio, and spot opening price.$MKR
Maker’s evolution into the Sky ecosystem raises an important question about token identity and economic value. A rebrand or governance transition can change how investors assess a protocol, but it does not automatically create stronger demand. The real test is whether the ecosystem’s lending activity, stablecoin adoption, and governance mechanisms translate into sustainable value for its token holders.The average cost of BTC held for less than 6 months is approximately $76,000, with the current price about 5.9% higher than this cost. Over the past week, the unrealized profit margin for this group narrowed from 8.7% to 5.9%, while BTC's price dropped by about $1,000 and their average holding cost rose by about $1,100. Data shows that the average cost of BTC held for less than 6 months is about 1.56 times that of BTC held for more than 6 months, at $76,000 and $48,600 respectively. This ratio increased from 1.54 to 1.56, mainly driven by the rise in average cost among short-term holders, while the average cost for long-term holders remained basically unchanged. If BTC falls below $76,000, the BTC bought in the past 6 months will overall turn to unrealized losses. The last time this happened was in mid-August this year. It should be noted that the average cost does not mean all recent buyers are in profit; some investors who bought at higher prices may still face losses. #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $BTC ZEC, you're jumping around here again, are you holding back some earth-shattering news?
The group is spreading rumors about Grayscale ETF inflows and some NU7 upgrade.
I just stared at the order book for a long time and almost laughed out loud. It surged to 1238, and then?
It softened without a single fart, sliding back down to 1216 like a weak shrimp.
Take a close look at the recent candlesticks' orders, it's disgusting.
As soon as the price dares to poke its head up, thousands of sell orders immediately crash down, forcibly pushing it back.
This is not a bullish takeoff; it's clearly the main players hanging a bullish front while selling the dog meat they hold!Global Macro Guidance from October 26 to November 1 — Fed + PCE Data Pricing in December Rate Hike, AI Giants Face Profitability Test, Super Pricing Week Arrives! If last week’s market discussion was about the probability of an October rate hike being postponed to December, this week’s core argument becomes more complex, focusing on three key directions: a, how the Fed defines no rate hike in October — is it a pause? Or a dovish shift? b, which macro data among oil prices, GDP, and PCE will become the key driver deciding whether to hike rates in December! c, AI giants’ earnings reports vs. macro pressure entering the second week — can this week’s earnings reports from the giants reverse the situation? #ThisWeekWillReleaseOctoberFOMCRateDecision In short, this week is a super week where policy + inflation + growth + AI profitability + global central banks + geopolitical energy all converge, and I believe the focus should be on three main themes. First main theme — no rate hike in October becomes the default, is the expectation of a December rate hike locked in, and will there be further hikes in the future? 1. As of now, the probability of a December rate hike has risen to around 72.4%, entering the preliminary pricing stage. 2. In the early hours of October 28 — October FOMC meeting + Wash’s speech, the focus is not on no rate hike in October, but on what policies are being laid out to pave the way for a December hike: a, will inflation risks and continued inflation rise be emphasized? Will inflation expectations be raised? b, how to evaluate the energy shock? If Wash explicitly acknowledges concerns about oil prices affecting commodities, transportation, corporate costs, and inflation expectations, then December rate hikeZEC, you're jumping up and down here again, are you hiding some earth-shattering news?
The group is spreading rumors about Grayscale ETF inflows and some NU7 upgrade.
I just stared at the order book for a long time and almost laughed out loud. It surged to 1238, and then?
It softened without a single fart, sliding back down to 1216 like a weak shrimp.
Take a close look at the recent candlesticks' orders, it's disgusting.
Whenever the price dares to poke its head up, thousands of sell orders immediately smash down from above, forcibly pushing it back.
This is not a bullish takeoff; this is clearly the main players hanging a bullish front while selling the dog meat they hold!
The funniest thing is the current retail investor sentiment. The long-short ratio is 61% to 39%, a big crowd stubbornly holding long positions. I even see people in the group shouting "Going straight to 1300 soon." Bro,
Wake up.
Do you think the dog whales put so much effort into spreading news because they care about you losing money and want to give you a New Year's red envelope?
No way. Unless they wash out and blow out this batch of longs who rushed in on the news, this rally won't move at all.
The overall trend is down. You're jumping up and down halfway up the mountain, how can you jump to the sky?
Don't get itchy to catch longs just because it can't fall now.
Every rebound now is just supplying ammo to the shorts.
As long as it can't break through the fatal 1238, it's all a show.
$BTC
$ETH
$ZEC
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 The messages you listed are generally positive in the long term, but tonight (October 26) the US stock and crypto markets are under short-term pressure, with price movements more influenced by macro sentiment. These fundamental news items are hard to outweigh the risk-off sentiment ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting. News assessment: Mainly positive in the long term. Most of the information you provided belongs to structural positives rather than immediate selling pressure: · ETH staking hits a record (about 36%): In the long run, this signals holder confidence and reduces circulating supply; however, staked ETH is not gone and may be unlocked and sold in the future, so it should not be simply regarded as a "locked-up bullish factor." · Ethereum monthly submissions, RWA leadership, JPM Coin expansion, quantum resistance plans: All represent positive progress in ecosystem fundamentals and institutional adoption, impacting the medium to long term. · Franklin Templeton 5% Bitcoin allocation ETF: Provides a channel for traditional dividend funds to indirectly allocate BTC, representing incremental capital inflow, but the product is expected to start trading only after October 27. · BlackRock IBIT inflows and Strategy holdings: Reflect ongoing institutional allocation, but the single-week IBIT inflow is not a strong stimulus compared to previous outflows. · Hashrate recovery and Tether mining toolkit: Have limited direct short-term impact on coin prices. Tonight's US stock market: Futures slightly up but cautious tone. As of the Asia-Pacific session on October 26, US stock futures rose slightly: Dow futures up 0.34%, S&P 500 futures up 0.48%, Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.66%. Other data shows🧧🧧【Afternoon of 10·26｜ETH/SOL/ZEC: Three Pricing Logics】 Under the same market conditions, the three tokens show completely divergent pricing, with different choices in capital, narratives, and leverage. ETH｜Weak consensus, narrative unable to resist continuous outflows Current price 2318, slightly down, 24h liquidation volume 41.86 million ranks first among the three. Exchange net outflow of 169,000 coins, hitting a nearly four-month high; ETF cumulative outflow in October exceeds $1.2 billion, with capital withdrawing for four consecutive weeks. The launch of Hoodi testnet did not bring capital inflow, unable to hold above the 2330 level, and the so-called "bottoming expectation" in the market remains only at the narrative level. Currently, the consensus is extremely bearish; in market rotations, the weakest assets often are the last to recover. SOL｜Consolidation and accumulation, narrative present but lacking incremental buying Current price 100.97, slightly down 0.34%, liquidation 4.98 million, the lowest among the three. Spot recorded a net inflow of 5.84 million; Firedancer and Alpenglow technical narratives provide underlying support, but ETF funds have outflowed for three consecutive weeks, with nearly 72 million lost in recent months. The range holds at 100.50–100.80, market support is acceptable, but lacking marginal new funds, the trend is steady but lacks explosive power. ZEC｜The only gainer, strong narrative accompanied by high leverage risk Current price 1209.76, up 1.6%, the only rising token among the three; liquidation 5.07 million. Market cap is only one-third of SOL, leverage competition is the fiercest, current fee rate means longs continue to payThe probability of a Fed rate hike has dropped to about 10%, and the market currently leans more towards keeping rates unchanged. However, looking at it now, a lower chance of a rate hike does not necessarily mean Bitcoin will rise.
The current situation often is: excluding further rate hikes, but interest rates remain stuck at a high level.
If the Fed continues to signal a tight stance, the US dollar and US Treasury yields will still suppress risk assets. The focus next will be on guidance, spot flows, and price reactions. $BTC ETH just recorded the largest single-day net outflow in 4 months, with 169,770 tokens withdrawn from exchanges, but on the same day, a whale that hadn't moved in 11 years sent coins back.
What happened? Santiment data shows a net outflow of 169,770 ETH from exchanges, about $407 million, which on the surface is a classic bullish signal of supply contraction. However, an ancient address that bought 100,000 ETH at $0.311 during the 2015 ICO, after being dormant for 11 years, suddenly transferred out 5,000 tokens, of which 1,500 went directly to centralized exchanges.
Why is this noteworthy? Exchange net outflows are generally interpreted as "selling pressure easing," but the entry path of this ancient chip is exactly the opposite. More importantly, from October 1 to 22, ETH spot ETFs had a cumulative net outflow exceeding $1 billion, bleeding for 14 out of 16 trading days. On-chain supply is contracting, yet ETFs and the ancient whale are moving in the same direction.
Which observation does this support? It supports more the idea that "chip structure is rotating rather than a clean supply contraction." The ETH flowing out of exchanges may have gone to cold wallets or staking, but the ancient whale's deposits to exchanges represent real potential sellable supply.
Next thing to watch: Will the remaining 3,500 ETH also enter exchanges? If so, the bullish narrative built on the 169,770 net outflow will be discounted. Do you think this ancient whale is just "reallocating positions," or is it really preparing to sell? Let's discuss in the comments. $ETH $DOOD Core Drivers of the Surge
· "Fence Effect" at Korean Exchanges Boosts Buying: Recently, major Korean exchanges have been undergoing network upgrades and maintenance, causing deposits and withdrawals of multiple tokens including DOOD to be suspended. External chips cannot be transferred in to dump, and cross-exchange arbitrage channels are restricted, leading to a concentrated inflow of local Korean funds, resulting in significant premiums and one-way price surges in the local market.
· Social Buzz Ignites Retail FOMO: Social data has exploded in volume over a short period, with 24-hour global discussions sharply soaring to over a hundred thousand posts, quickly attracting short-term speculative funds to follow the trend, creating emotional resonance.
· High-Leverage Long Squeeze in Derivatives: The open interest (OI) of DOODUSDT perpetual contracts has surged 16.63% in a short time, with new funds dominated by newly opened leveraged long positions. The capital push combined with some shorts being forced to close has amplified the rally.
· Rotation Triggered by Low Market Cap and Thin Order Book: DOOD itself is a relatively small market cap Meme/NFT concept coin, with a high concentration of holdings (top ten addresses hold over 70%). During market rotation, even a small amount of funds can create significant price elasticity on a shallow order book.One is waiting to be unlocked, one is being dumped by a big player, and one is neither mentioned nor sold.
The top student with a time bomb, $HYPE at $76.54, down 16.96% in 30 days but up 38.97% in 90 days. There is an unlock for core contributors on November 6th. Currently, only 22.24% is circulating, with an FDV of 76.09 billion. 73 is the near-term support; breaking it means the unlock expectation is being priced in early. Only reclaiming 79.13 counts as fully digested.
$UNI, abandoned by the former leader, at $6.92, up 0.74%, with a volume of 215.84M. Hayes cleared out over the weekend, specifically selling UNI, and the market responded with a green candle. But the protocol focuses on fee income, not who is shouting. Falling back below 6.8 indicates selling pressure is not yet exhausted.
The most boring yet most resilient is $DOGE at $0.0769, with a market cap of 12.03B. Its decline is smaller than most major coins, indicating stable holdings but also no new money coming in. 0.075 is the bottom of the range; breaking it triggers programmed selling pressure. Any rise depends on external events; technicals alone can't push it.ETH almost couldn't hold 2300 this morning, then pulled back to 2333 in the afternoon, really frustrating. This time I'm leaning towards waiting for a pullback to go long, taking profits on the rebound first, not rushing to bet on a big move. According to this chart setup, the 15-minute 20 moving average is at 2322, the price just reclaimed it, and MACD has turned up, so continuing to short around 2300 feels a bit late to me.
The whale-to-retail difference narrowed from -1.2 earlier this month to -0.35. Based on your provided criteria, big players have been reducing shorts all along and only slowed down temporarily over the weekend. I'm willing to have some hope for this rebound, but reducing shorts is still one step away from aggressively going long; we can't just rely on indicators turning positive to assume a definite rise ahead.
I want to wait for a pullback to 2318–2323, and if it holds, lightly add some positions. If it drops below 2305, I'll exit to avoid holding through a test of 2292 or even 2281. I'll take partial profits near 2350 first, then watch 2365; previous attempts there were pushed down, so if it really reaches that, I don't have a big appetite for it yet. Chasing directly at 2333 feels awkward since it's close to 2350, and a 20-point drop from there is quite easy.
What I most want to see from this long position is that after the pullback, it doesn't grind back down to 2300. If it just reclaimed the moving average and then falls again, that rebound confidence is gone. I'd rather add less now than hold a short-term long position hoping every day for a whale to save it. I'll wait to see if there's an opportunity around 2320 first.$ETH 2,335 closed long positions, originally targeting 2370, but didn't want to wait.
Today the highest touched 2,371, but it didn't hold, falling back above 2,300. The daily high-low difference is less than ninety dollars, the rebound is weak.
The position side is clearer: open interest of ETH across all exchanges has decreased by about nine billion this month, leverage keeps moving out, and those remaining are also reducing positions.
The staking exit queue dropped from 280,000 tokens to just over 3,000 — those who wanted to leave have already done so. Sellers have no inventory, buyers still don't come, so the price is stuck around 2,300.
To go up, it needs to pass 2,370, then 2,440; downwards, the strong liquidation zone at 2,286 is just one step away. Before the early Thursday decision, this odds is not worth it.
The position is closed. If it really breaks above 2,440 with volume, then recalculate. #中东原油运输恢复，油价为何仍居高位？ The Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index has been negative for 33 consecutive days, with the latest reading at -0.1259%. This number alone isn't large, but the fact that it hasn't turned positive for over thirty days indicates that buying pressure in the US has been relatively weak.
Let's clarify the indicator first. The premium index measures the difference between BTC prices on Coinbase relative to the global average price. When US funds are willing to pay more to buy, the index is positive; conversely, as it is now, US buyers are unwilling to pay a premium. It reflects market sentiment, not price direction.
Therefore, a negative premium does not necessarily mean Bitcoin will definitely decline. It's more like a thermometer, telling you that it's a bit cold on the US side. The real determinants of what happens next are the net inflows of spot ETFs, whether trading volume can expand, and when this index returns to positive.
My own judgment is that when the price is moving sideways, who is continuously buying is more important than the price itself. If ETFs have net outflows for several consecutive days and the premium remains suppressed, this correction likely isn't over. Conversely, if ETFs start to see inflows again and the premium moves back above zero, then we can talk about building momentum for a rebound.
At this point, I am only watching two numbers: whether the ETF's daily net inflow has turned positive, and whether the premium index can return above 0. Without resolving these two, calling a bull or bear market is just guessing. Coinbase Bitcoin premium index has been negative for 33 consecutive days, latest at -0.1259%. The buying pressure in the US market is indeed weak, with buyers unwilling to pay a high price.
But a negative premium is just a thermometer, not a verdict. It indicates that funds in the US are relatively cold, but it does not directly mean the price will fall.
Next, watch two things: whether there is capital inflow back into the spot ETF, and whether the premium can return above the zero line. During sideways trading, who is buying is more worth watching than the price itself.$XAU Surprisingly, gold rebounded before Bitcoin. Gold was really weak last week, continuously falling, causing panic in the market. The Middle East situation talks about peace but then fighting breaks out again, happening every time. Their words are as meaningless as farting. Analysts are now bearish. Now, retail investors buy gold like shopping at a vegetable market, looking everywhere for bargains. Previously, when oil prices rose, people bought gold to hedge inflation. Now, with oil prices rising, it forces interest rate hikes, and gold takes the hit. The rate hike in September hasn't been fully priced in, and there's a 75% chance of another in December. It's estimated there won't be a hike at the end of the month, but 25 basis points will be added in December. The Chinese central bank is still buying, having done so for 23 consecutive months, increasing holdings by 23 tons in September. The view: retail investors buy cheap gold, central banks buy as a backup plan; both are right, just on different cycles. If 4000 holds, there's still hope by year-end; if not, it's another story. Support at 3978/3942, resistance at 4030/4070.🌙 On Monday night, ENA alone rose 8 points, while the other three coins didn't follow at all
$ENA had been hovering around 0.187 before, but today it directly jumped to 0.204, up 8.8%, with a clear increase in trading volume. ENA is a USD interest-bearing stablecoin USDe, backed by a basket of short-term US Treasury bonds. When you hold USDe, you earn yields based on the Treasury rates. If interest rates go down, the appeal of interest-bearing stablecoins changes, and funds move early in that direction. But be clear: the elasticity of interest-bearing coins is completely tied to interest rate expectations. If the decision is hawkish, this 8-point gain could be wiped out.
$BTC is at 80,300, moving sideways all day 📊 After breaking 81,000, it didn't continue to drop, hovering around 80,300 all day with shrinking volume. On-chain, two opposite trends: long-term holders are withdrawing 770 million BTC from market makers for themselves, while early investors are depositing coins to exchanges preparing to sell. The rate decision is the day after tomorrow, with an 84.5% chance of no change. Whether 80,000 holds is key; avoid heavy positions at this level.
$ASTER has launched perpetual contracts on several chains, with fees and market-making rebate rules set, but trading volume is only a few hundred thousand USD. Funds are chasing coins like ENA with interest rate stories. New chain DEXs without catalysts are ignored; an event is needed to attract users.
$HYPE was 80 a few days ago, now 75.8. It didn't follow ENA's 8-point rise. This shows funds chose the interest-bearing direction today, not on-chain exchanges. 75 is the next level to watch; without a market reversal, it’s hard for it to move up on its ownThe entire network saw liquidations of 119 million in 24 hours, with long positions accounting for 82.01 million; however, $ETH long positions liquidated 22.41 million, while $BTC long positions only liquidated 13.24 million — the leverage long liquidation intensity for ETH is 1.7 times that of BTC, making the short-term "forced sell-off" cleaner.
But ETH has not yet earned the qualification for recovery. BTC has pulled away from around 79,373, repeatedly contesting above 80,000; ETH is still grinding near 2,300–2,320, failing to reclaim 2,349. One is half-exposed, the other still crouching at the edge of the pit — this is "relative strength," not a reversal.
Both sides have their own weaknesses. BTC's rebound includes short covering; on October 22, spot ETF net outflows reached 636 million in a single day, with IBIT and FBTC accounting for 74%. ETH's ETF cumulative outflows in October exceeded 1 billion, and Glamsterdam's Hoodi testnet was delayed again due to EIP-8037 security concerns; however, the staked amount is 43.7–43.8 million ETH, accounting for 35–36% of supply, and exchange reserves are at a historic low of only 3.49% — "ETFs that can sell are selling, staked ETH that can't sell is locked."
Conditions: If BTC effectively breaks below 79,373 and fails to reclaim 80,000, the bullish judgment is invalid; if ETH fails to hold 2,293, "recovery" is out of the question. Conversely, if BTC hovers near 80,000 and ETH quietly forms higher lows and holds 2,349, the leader should be re-evaluated. Whoever first turns resistance into support is the true recovery $ZEC 📉 从表面来看，$ETH 正面临不小的压力。价格持续徘徊在2300美元附近，10月份现货ETF净赎回规模已超过10亿美元，原定于26日进行的 Glamsterdam 测试网升级也再次推迟。随着市场质疑声不断增加，看空情绪逐渐占据主导。 🧩 但如果只盯着价格和资金流出，可能会忽略市场正在发生的另一面。 🐋 链上数据显示，单日约有170,000枚 ETH 从交易所流出，这是过去四个月以来最大的单日流出规模。与此同时，ETH质押总量仍处于历史高位，超过43.8百万枚。 ⚖️ 这正是当前市场最值得关注的矛盾：一边是ETF资金持续流出、技术升级延期以及投资者信心承压；另一边则是大量ETH离开交易所，质押总量继续维持在历史高位。 💡 这是否意味着大户正在为下一轮上涨做准备？答案并没有那么简单。 📊 ETH流出交易所，可能意味着投资者将资产转入长期持有或质押，但这并不能直接证明市场正在大规模吸筹。同样，质押数量处于高位，也不代表这些ETH未来永远不会进入市场流通。 🎯 当前真正的较量，不只是多空双方的价格博弈，而是短期流动性压力与长期网络信心之间的对抗。 📈 如果ETH能够在2300美Don't rush to bottom-fish BTC pullbacks; first check the contract structure before deciding your position size. BTC dropped from 84800 to 79000, and I reviewed this pullback.
The small rebound hovering around 80000 now looks more like a breather for the bears, not a reversal.
79000 is the key support this week; if it breaks, stop-loss orders will flood out; on the upside, 80500 is the level bulls need to hold. If it can't hold above, the rebound is just a correction.
Pay attention to contract signals here: funding rates are dropping fast, bulls are being passively liquidated, not actively bottom-fishing. Total open interest hasn't dropped significantly, and bears haven't fled; both sides are waiting for direction.
Only a strong volume close above 80500 is a real takeover; low-volume rallies are mostly bull traps, likely to retest 79000 later.
I've already cleared my chasing longs, keeping only a base position to observe, with stop-loss at structural levels, no holding through losses. Until BTC's direction is clear, I won't touch altcoins—they're more volatile and have sharper pullbacks.
Simply put, don't be fooled by small rebounds. Before the structure is repaired, managing position size is more important than guessing price moves.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC $BTC will hit a new ATH between May and Nov 2027 📅
Cycles are speeding up. The ATH-to-ATH duration is compressing: 1079 days -> 845 days -> 662 days (projected).
This leads to a "zero-fluctuation paradox" BTC is maturing into a persistent uptrend like the SPX or NASDAQ, where corrections get shorter and expansions get longer
Do you think BTC is becoming a traditional equity market? 👇
#OctFOMCDecisionThisWeek
$BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto #Macro📉 Five consecutive days of lower highs, three times the lows did not break, I am betting on an upward correction.
In the morning, I mentioned testing 79,220, the lowest was 79,377.7, a difference of 157.
The break was only 216.7 contracts, just 23.6% of 10-24. A low-volume false break, already returned to 80,460.
The price is fake, look at the position: open interest 3.118 million contracts, yesterday at the same point 2.993 million, +4.2%; price +0.15%. Positions increased but price did not move, new money is betting but not winning.
The fee rate sticks to the 0.01% benchmark, premium −0.0389% still negative. Discount plus benchmark fee, the ones paying are the shorts. The position price does not fall, it is trapped.
Contrary evidence: daily high points have fallen for five consecutive days, from 84,899.6 to 80,955.6, −4.6%.
10-22 has already fallen completely, the following three days only dropped 211, 779, 114, amplitude 3.32% received 1.99%. No one is willing to raise the price, this is not the first phase of a new trend.
Judgment: upward correction. First watch 81,070, if it stands above, open 81,600.
If the 1H close breaks 79,000, I admit I am wrong, look down to 78,400. Window until 10-27 20:00.
Lows not breaking means shorts dare not raise the price, consecutive lower highs means bulls are conceding price.
Personal review, not investment advice.
Will 81,000 come first, or 79,200 first?
$BTC #OctoberFOMC approaching, what uncertainties remain with the Fed pausing rate hikes?