Orbit Post Sitemap
$ETH
The Ethereum ICO old address that has been dormant for 11 years moved today. 5000 ETH were transferred out, of which 1500 ETH went directly to exchanges, worth about 3.45 million USD at the current price. The 3.45 million mentioned in the breaking news is these 1500 ETH; I checked the price, around 2315, which matches.
My first reaction was not panic. ETH is now at 2315, fluctuating between 2293 and 2365 in 24 hours, down a bit over 1%. If a whale really had a negative outlook, why wait 11 years of dormancy and choose a lukewarm sideways day to act?
But on the other hand, the ICO cost back then was almost zero, so selling at any price was a windfall, completely different from our mindset entering at over 2300, so don’t overinterpret this as a dump signal.
It does remind me: when such old addresses move, short-term sentiment is somewhat affected. I’m holding my small base position, and my contract was just liquidated once last week, so I’m not in a hurry to buy back.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #中东原油运输恢复，油价为何仍居高位？ Bro, the magical realism in the Middle East right now is crystal clear.
Look at the data: oil transport through Hormuz is gradually recovering, but what about oil prices? Brent stubbornly closed at $116.72, and WTI also broke above $103.
Why can ships sail, yet oil remains so expensive? Because freight and insurance costs simply won't come down! The Houthi militants are still launching missiles at Saudi energy facilities, and even if intercepted, this "security cost" all gets added into the oil price. Trump says the conflict might end soon, but neither side has signed any agreement; this is pure "expectation management" talk.
As long as oil prices stubbornly stay above $110, this big game can't be solved. High oil prices firmly choke inflation, so the Fed absolutely won't dare to cut rates and might even continue tightening. US Treasury yields keep sucking liquidity at high levels, and global funds are all flocking to risk-free interest — that's the fundamental reason why Bitcoin is now below the 80,000 mark and still struggling to find a bottom. $BTC $CL 表面风平浪静，底下全是绷紧的弦🎐 - 5%的不变概率，真的等于风险清零了吗？ 周一扫了一眼盘面，BTC挂在80550附近，稳稳踩着80K这条线，气氛安静得像什么都没发生。但衍生品那边给我的感觉完全不同——越是这种"大家都知道利率不会动"的共识时刻，越容易堆出单边仓位。利率决议本身可能早被吃进价格了，真正没被定价的，是决议之后那一下情绪释放。 跨市场看，美元利率预期压着整个风险曲线。BTC守住整数关口，说明大资金还没撤，但也谈不上进攻，更像在等一个借口。这种姿态传导到山寨上就很明显：ENA在0.1888附近磨，它的USDe收益率天生跟美元利率绑在一起，利率路径一模糊，资金流入就迟疑；HYPE在76.5，离80还有段距离，想真正翻身得等大盘先给出方向；WLD在0.467，讲的是AI身份叙事，属于情绪弹性大、但也最容易被大盘拖住的那一类。 偏多的路径其实不复杂：只要利率落地后没有鹰派意外，被压制的风险偏好会先回到BTC和ETH，再顺着叙事溢到ENA、HYPE这些高beta标的，挤压一波空头。但脆弱点也在这里——共识太满时，任何一点措辞偏差都可能触发反向平仓，高杠杆仓位会先被清洗，山寨的回撤Before Wednesday, big money is doing a very boring thing: reducing positions.
BTC has dropped back below 80,000, now around 79,900. During the Asian morning session, it once nearly fell 2%. Many people's first reaction is that it crashed again, but to me, it looks more like waiting for Wednesday.
The Federal Reserve will announce its decision on the 28th. The market gives about a 90% probability of "maintaining the interest rate." What really makes people nervous is not whether there will be a rate hike this week, but whether Waller will firmly confirm a December rate hike during the press conference.
Money in government bonds can reliably earn high returns, so risk assets naturally need to shrink first. Oil prices have pulled back a bit from the highs; Brent is around 114, but still expensive, meaning the inflation thorn hasn't been fully removed.
I don't really believe there will be any big moves in the few days before the meeting. Next, we watch the night after the decision: if BTC steadily closes back above 82,500, then this is a typical pre-meeting liquidation; if Waller turns hawkish and prices continue to drop, the "just de-risking" narrative will have to be revised.
$BTC $ETH
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Elon Musk warns of a major shakeup in AI cloud providers: GPU rental prices keep rising, but financing is tightening
GPUs have even become a resale business. A founder of an AI lab revealed that they locked in a large amount of GPU computing power in advance, and now the rental prices for H100, B200, and B300 have increased 2 to 3 times. Even if they ultimately fail to train top-tier models, they can still make money just by subleasing computing power.
But buying GPUs doesn’t guarantee they can be used. Many data centers are still under construction, with delays piling up. Investor Chamath worries that by 2027, a batch of GPUs will just sit idle because the data centers aren’t built or powered yet. Even if they are put into use smoothly, the rental income might not cover financing costs.
It’s also getting harder to borrow money. CoreWeave’s batch of bonds once dropped to 78% of face value this month. That means bonds originally promising to repay $100 principal at maturity are now selling for $78, corresponding to an annualized yield over 16%. Gartner even predicts that by 2030, over 80% of emerging AI cloud providers will no longer operate independently due to bankruptcy, acquisitions, or other reasons.
Musk believes the bond market has recently started shutting the door on AI computing power companies lacking other revenue sources. He mentioned SpaceX has Starlink…
#StorageChipStocksFallAgain, AIInvestmentReturnConcernsGrowVolume retreats first, price still holding
The most striking thing in today's market is not the rise or fall, but the "divergence" between price and capital. The total open interest across the network dropped by 1.15% in one day, remaining at 139.466 billion; contract turnover plummeted by 39.82%, down to only 87.708 billion. BTC is still hovering above 80,500, ETH is holding at 2,350, and SOL is circling around 101, with all three major assets showing volatility under 0.25%.
However, positions have simultaneously withdrawn: BTC open interest down 1.65%, ETH down 2.63%, SOL down 1.83%. Prices have not broken down, but chips are being collected first, which looks more like large funds reducing exposure rather than panic selling. With no hard data on Monday, a 40% volume shrinkage is not surprising; what’s odd is that open interest also retreated, indicating it’s not just "Monday sluggishness."
ZEC is the only contrarian: open interest increased 3.80% to 2.43 billion, price touched near 1,216; but liquidations reached 3.76 million, surpassing SOL’s 3.31 million. The more hot money squeezes in, the more people get caught out—this strength is not pure.
If BTC loses 80,500, we can only watch if volume can flow back to fill the gap; for ZEC’s chasing method, don’t catch the last leg. The people haven’t left the seat, but half the chairs are already empty.
Therefore, for now, only do one thing: don’t add positions to the three major mainstream coins, don’t chase ZEC at highs, reduce overall positions one more notch, and wait for volume to return before discussing direction.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Reviewing the rise of BNB, it is essentially a classic case of a centralized exchange platform token deeply integrated with its ecosystem.
Through gas fees, token launches, staking, and burn mechanisms, Binance has successfully converted its massive traffic and wealth effect into the intrinsic value of the token.
The upcoming new L1 plan indeed represents a clear demand expectation.
However, investment cannot rely solely on hindsight; the $743 price means the market has already fully priced in the current ecosystem dividends.
Its future growth potential depends not only on whether the new L1 can truly develop an independent ecosystem but also on facing the risks of centralized regulatory scrutiny.
Understanding it is meant for rationally assessing the current odds, not for blind regret.#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Currently, CME FedWatch pricing shows that the market consensus is to keep rates unchanged in October, with a very high probability of a pause in rate hikes. The market's focus is not on whether to raise rates, but on the post-meeting statement and what policy space will be left for December.
This meeting is not a quarterly meeting and will not update the dot plot. The core highlights are concentrated on the policy statement wording + the Chair's press conference remarks.
⚠️ Three major variables
1. Inflation resilience
Oil prices remain high, and geopolitical conflicts continue to raise inflation risks. If Fed officials believe inflation is not falling as expected, they may deliver a hawkish signal in their remarks, implying the option to raise rates remains in December. This could cause the US dollar index and US Treasury yields to rebound, putting pressure on risk assets.
2. US economy and employment
US economic and employment data remain strong, giving the Fed confidence to maintain high rates. An overheating economy will prevent the Fed from turning to easing too early, prolonging the duration of high rates, which continues to pressure long-duration assets, crypto, and tech stocks.
3. Internal committee divisions
Views within the Fed are not unified; some officials worry about inflation rebounding, while others fear that high rates will gradually harm the economy. These differing voices may cause ambiguous statements, leading to market volatility and whipsawing between bulls and bears.
$BTC $ZEC $ETH #微软Azure增长43%，AI商业化能否提速？
Will Microsoft's (MSTF) Q3 earnings beat expectations?
Q2 results: revenue, GAAP EPS, and Azure all exceeded expectations
✅ Market revenue forecast $87.6 billion, actual revenue $90 billion
Looking at this quarter:
Market revenue forecast $90.64 billion
Market GAAP EPS forecast $4.73
Market Azure growth forecast 45%
Market capital expenditure forecast over $50 billion (the biggest cost pressure this quarter)
✅ Azure demand still exceeds supply, customer AI demand still surpasses available computing power, order backlog and RPO remain high,
✅ Copilot commercialization accelerating, M365 Copilot paid seats increased to over 30 million
✅ PC business recovering, Bing search ads strengthened with AI traffic, multiple businesses providing support, cloud order fulfillment capability improving
✅ CapEx guidance alleviates concerns, company lowered multi-year capital expenditure guidance from $190 billion to $175 billion, easing market worries about excessive AI investment
High probability of slight beats across the board, low chance of significant beats
So this time, I chose Yes
@OKX中文 @OKX星球
#OKX美股财报季 #OKX达人 #交易TradFi就来OKX### 5. Latest Market Summary
Short-term Risk: ETF Capital Outflow
From October 22 to 23, the net outflow of US spot BTC ETFs totaled approximately $773.5 million, weakening the previous three consecutive days of capital inflows.
Support to Watch: $80,000
If BTC holds this level and climbs back above $82,000, the short-term rebound will have more confirmation significance; if it breaks down effectively, further pullbacks need to be guarded against.
This Week's Focus: Federal Reserve Meeting
The policy decision and future interest rate guidance on October 27-28 may affect the US dollar, US stock market, and risk appetite in the crypto market.
In a nutshell: BTC is currently more like being in a tug-of-war near a key support level, and the trend reversal cannot be confirmed solely by whale buying or short-term rebounds. Pay attention to whether $80,000 can hold, whether $82,000 can be effectively broken through, and whether ETF capital inflows resume sustainably.
Market data referenced is as of reports available on October 26, 2026; prices change in real time, and the above does not constitute investment advice. Why does a hacker theft, accounting for only a few ten-thousandths of SOL's market cap, cause the price to repeatedly test the $100 level? 📉 The answer may not lie with the hacker. First, let's look at the event itself. According to Onchain Lens monitoring, the hacker stole 9,408 SOL from 49 victims via a compromised wallet, involving about $954,000, with a single largest theft of 1,636 SOL (about $166,000). Viewed in isolation, this amount is almost negligible compared to SOL's daily trading volume of several billion dollars. The issue is not "how much was lost," but "how it was lost." The attack targeted Bloomtrading user wallets, not the Solana underlying protocol. This means it impacts the trust premium at the application/custodial layer, not the security narrative of the chain itself. However, the market does not make such fine distinctions in the face of negative news—when the price is already fragile, any security headline becomes an excuse to sell. The real pressure comes from the resonance of technical and capital factors. From the 30-minute chart, SOL has been declining from the stage high of 102.73, dipping as low as 100.29, with clear resistance from moving averages above, weak rebound strength, and dominant selling pressure. The $100 mark is not only a psychological integer level but also a major support indicated by multiple analytical frameworks; the secondary support below is near 95.70; the 102–103 range above has shifted from support to short-term resistance. In other words, the hacker event occurred at the level whereOil prices haven't retreated, and BTC hovering around 80,000 is making people anxious. What should we really focus on, oil or risk appetite? The most direct market observation these days: BTC is fluctuating around 80,000, as if waiting for a signal unrelated to itself. The original text mentions oil returning to 60, BTC looking at 90,000 or even 100,000. This chain sounds logical, but what the market is truly trading may not be oil itself, but the transmission of inflation expectations cooling → easing space opening → risk appetite warming. Oil is just a trigger, not the answer. The key number is here: the extent to which oil prices fall from their highs directly determines whether the market is willing to price in easing early. If oil just moves sideways, BTC hovering around 80,000 is a typical waiting-type consolidation, with weak willingness to chase prices above and support below, making the rhythm grinding. Looking at sector strength and weakness is clearer. BTC is the anchor, ETH follows passively, among altcoins ARB still faces downward pressure on the daily chart and cooling capital interest. The original text says to short on rebounds and trade quickly, essentially short-term funds are unwilling to stay long. APR is mentioned as having strong control and able to rise but not recommended to enter, which actually exposes structural problems in altcoins: they can be pumped but not held, chasing in easily leads to being stuck. At times like this, funds prefer to stay in BTC waiting for macro signals rather than spreading into altcoins; rotation is contracting, not expanding. The bullish path: oil falls → inflation expectations cool → US Treasury yields decline → BTC leads recovery, ETH and altcoins follow with catch-up gains, with BTC moving first and altcoins later. Potential risk: if oil fluctuates repeatedly, easing expectations get delayed, and the 80,000 consolidation might evolveOverlaying the Gann lines from the 2021 cycle and this cycle — the structure is strikingly similar, but there is one difference $BTC
Using the 2021 high of 69000 and the 2022 low of 15400 as anchors to draw the Gann angle lines: after Bitcoin started the first wave up from 15400, it made a same-level pullback above the 2/1 line, and as soon as the correction ended, the next same-level rise followed
Then using the same method to draw this cycle — anchored at the high of 126000 and the low of 57800. If this wave rising from 57800 is the first wave of the bull market, then the decline starting from 87395 is a pullback against this wave
Putting the two charts side by side, the framework is very similar $ETH
But one detail is worth noting: this cycle is clearly faster than the last
I pondered a bit, it might be related to the market itself — more participants and higher capital efficiency. Looking back at mature markets like the S&P, Nasdaq, and gold, the pace at different stages is never fixed; same-level rises and corrections don’t necessarily take the same amount of time
Of course, a larger scale doesn’t necessarily mean the market will accelerate; this is just a phenomenon worth keeping an eye on
So I’m not fixated on whether "this cycle can exactly match the last one in time and price" — that would be like carving a mark on a boat to find a sword. What really matters is whether the core structure still holds: $APR
If the drop from 87395 is truly a pullback, then once the pullback bottom appears, it will be followed by a same-level rise like the black segment in chart 2
History doesn’t simply repeat, but patterns often leave cluesRetail investors are charging forward, while whales are adding margin
BTC is idling around 79,800, ETH at 2,310 continues to lag behind. The most striking is the trading volume: last night, a one-hour dump hit 53.69 million, but this afternoon it shrank directly to 48 million, turning the dump into a grind. $ETH
What are the big players doing? A whale holds $396 million worth of BTC+ETH long positions, with ETH liquidation price set at 2,181. Last night it was lifted just $30 away, and at midnight urgently added 9.21 million USDC margin to survive. What are retail investors doing? The overall ETH long-short ratio is 1.82, with long accounts nearly twice the short ones; but among the largest holding accounts, 34 are long and 94 are short. To translate: retail investors are charging, big players are waiting. Even more painfully, the 30-day BTC transfer volume from retail to Binance surged from 5.5 billion to 10.75 billion, hitting a 6-month high; while whales decreased from 5.9 billion to 3.8 billion in the same period. $BTC
This rebound is driven by retail investors and is unstable. If BTC fails to break out with volume near 80,500, or ETH cannot reclaim 2,360-2,390, it’s a short opportunity. Only if volume supports a stable hold above 80,500 / 2,420 should you reconsider. Don’t compete with whales on toughness. #BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ Bitcoin has always dropped after past midterm elections. But one thing most people overlook is that in the past, Bitcoin only completed its cycle bottom after the midterm elections. So the decline is just a correlation, not a causation.
This time, Bitcoin has already completed its cycle bottom, so this round of decline may not repeat. Bitcoin is very likely to have bottomed out before this year's midterm elections, and those waiting for a crash will miss out. We've seen this situation at previous cycle bottoms, and this scene may play out again.I thought the hardware wallet's test was "keep the keys safe," but unexpectedly the email added a test: "Please identify strangers wearing official uniforms." In the crypto world, anti-scam efforts sometimes require doubling as a gatekeeper 😂
FOUNDATION announced that spam emails have been impersonating its official domain, possibly involving one or more leaked Cloudflare API keys; the team has revoked all related keys and shut down the malicious domains involved in the emails. The Passport hardware wallet was not affected.
My judgment is that this should ring the alarm about the "trustworthiness of official emails" rather than directly equating it to a wallet breach. Domain identity being impersonated lowers recipients' vigilance; however, the email channel and hardware wallet are different security boundaries, and conflating them can lead to misjudgments. I separate "looking official" from "content verified": uniforms can be borrowed, but trust cannot be exempt from inspection.I took a look at the recent ETF fund flows, liquidation data, and market trends. Currently, it feels like a short-term bearish trend, but it's still too early to say the bull market is over. There are several main reasons: 1. Recently, there are signs of capital withdrawal. On October 22 and 23, the US BTC spot ETFs had consecutive net outflows totaling about $773 million, indicating that buying has indeed weakened recently. However, based on just these two days of data, it cannot be confirmed that institutions have started a sustained exit. 2. Part of this decline was caused by long liquidations. On October 24, within just 4 hours, about $436 million worth of positions in the crypto market were forcibly liquidated, with over 90% being long positions. Simply put, many people thought the price had dropped enough and opened long positions, but the price kept falling, triggering liquidations that further pushed the price down. So, this rapid drop is not necessarily all due to active selling; leveraged liquidations also amplified the decline. 3. The key point to watch next is whether the price can hold around $80,000. If BTC falls below $80,000 but quickly rebounds, it indicates there might still be capital stepping in at the bottom. But if it fails to hold and each rebound is weaker, or it continues to break lower supports, then it can no longer be simply considered a shakeout, and caution is needed as the bull market might really be weakening. 4. I think the most critical factor is whether there is capital willing to enter the market. If ETFs start to see sustained inflows again, spot buying[Pharaoh's Market Watch]
The October FOMC rate decision is about to be announced this week. Can Bitcoin ride this tailwind to break through 84,000?
Pharaoh says straight up, don’t pop the champagne yet. This FOMC isn’t a "free pass"; it’s a "life-or-death test." The market is betting on a pause, but Powell’s tone might be harsher than a rate hike.
First, let’s see how the market is positioned. CME data shows the probability of holding rates steady in October is as high as 85% to 87%.
So where’s the uncertainty? It’s all in Powell and the dot plot.
First, inflation isn’t dead yet. September core CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month, and PPI year-over-year hit 6.3%. If Powell insists at the press conference that "inflation remains too high and a hike is needed in December," then the October pause is just a "fake move." The dollar and US Treasury yields would spike immediately, and Bitcoin would get hammered again.
Second, the balance sheet reduction is still a sharp knife. Powell has consistently advocated aggressive balance sheet cuts, aiming to reduce the Fed’s balance sheet to several trillion dollars. Liquidity could snap at any moment.
Third, the mess of the government shutdown. The US government has been shut down for over three weeks, key economic data releases are delayed, and the Fed is essentially making decisions blindfolded. This increases uncertainty, and capital is reluctant to take heavy positions.
What does this mean for Bitcoin? If October really pauses and Powell softens his tone, the negative factors will be fully priced in, and Bitcoin has a chance to break through 84,000. But if there’s a hint of a December hike, Bitcoin might bounce briefly then test 78,000! $BTC $ETH #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 When AI stocks fall, does the crypto market also cool down?📉
According to CoinDesk on October 26, there is an easily overlooked reason for this round of price weakness: the "AI rally" in Asian tech stocks took another hit, with Goldman Sachs cutting the target price of South Korea's KOSPI index by 25%, dragging risk sentiment down together.
On the same day, $BTC dropped to about $79,800, and $SOL fell 2%, barely holding near $100.
The logic I see is: many funds now hold both AI tech stocks and crypto assets, both considered "high risk, high volatility." When AI stocks get their valuations cut, these funds tend to reduce positions across the board, making it hard for crypto to stay unaffected.
So this week, besides watching the Federal Reserve, I will also keep an eye on the Nasdaq and Asian tech stocks. If AI stocks stabilize, the crypto price rebound will have more confidence.
Do you think the crypto market is currently more influenced by the Federal Reserve or by AI stocks?
This is my personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice This time, Brother 800 wants to talk about a different topic with everyone. In the future, will the storage chip market be dictated by buyers or sellers? For many years, the storage chip industry has had one characteristic: when supply exceeds demand, prices plummet and manufacturers' profits shrink; when demand exceeds supply, prices rise and profits explode. But I think this round of the market might really be different! Did you know? Hynix management previously warned that by 2027, the globalNo US license, no UK authorization: Mobilum's "global payments" currently exist only in PPT presentations
Mobilum promotes a global payment network externally, but it lacks an independent US payment license and UK FCA crypto asset authorization. Its core qualifications are concentrated in Poland and Lithuania, covering only parts of the European Economic Area, far from true globalization. Although it once cooperated with Wyre to try to enter the US market, this was a third-party temporary channel, not a license operated independently by Mobilum. After Wyre's business changes, this US channel has long lost stable support.
The underlying card issuer Quicko, which it originally relied on, had its license revoked by Polish regulators in early 2026, breaking the card issuing chain, and there is still no publicly stable alternative card issuer. Mobilum itself is a micro Fintech delisted from the Canadian CSE and traded OTC, with weak capital reserves, holding only a thin EU VASP qualification. Card issuance and fund reserves all rely on external third-party institutions.
It only has a white-label outsourcing cooperation with Core and has no capital stake in CORE. SatPay wants to penetrate mainstream consumer markets in Europe and America, with the US and UK being two unavoidable major markets. Without corresponding regional regulatory licenses, "global payments" can only remain at the promotional level. Coupled with Core lacking primary VC backing and continuous withdrawal of validation nodes, the expectation of achieving large-scale payment fee income through Mobilum is difficult to realize in the short term.The hardest hit was exactly the bottom.
At 11:00, 614,000 contracts (the largest of the day) smashed down to a 24h low of 99.83, then the next candle rebounded. From 09:00 to 11:00, three candles totaled 1.635 million contracts, hammered from 101.63 down to 99.83, a drop of 1.80.
From 12:00 to 13:00, only 628,000 contracts (38% of the sell-off) lifted the price back by 1.73, recovering 96%.
More money to sell, less money to lift — most of that 1.6 million was stop-loss orders, not real selling.
But at 14:00, a single candle with 156,000 contracts only repaired a quarter of the drop, cutting 101.41 back to 100.71 — the buyers above are also thin. The 0.70 range between 99.83 and 101.56 is thin on both ends.
Current price 100.71 / 24h -1.14% / MA20 101.27 overhead 0.56. It's only 02:00 Eastern Time, US stock market opens at 21:30, crypto is discounting risk appetite first.
If the 101.4~101.6 rebound fails + closes bearish with volume (≥250,000), short with stop loss at 102.05, target 99.83, risk-reward 3.0.
Long only if it closes above 101.60 with 1.6x leverage, otherwise no. Do not chase the first break below 99.83.
$SOL
(Not investment advice, trade at your own risk)Don't treat the service provider as a stronghold: Mobilum only opened a "fiat channel" for SatPay and does not promise any backing
Many in the community interpret Mobilum as a solid financial backbone for SatPay, but in reality, the two only have a B2B outsourcing partnership. Mobilum merely provides the technology channel for connecting crypto assets to fiat consumption, responsible for API integration and KYC process setup, earning corresponding technical service fees. It has not made any equity investment in the Core project, nor will it make any backing promises for SatPay's fund security, business scale, or CORE token price.
Mobilum itself is a micro fintech company that trades only over-the-counter after being delisted from the Canadian CSE, without a banking license. Its previous underlying card issuing partner Quicko had its license revoked, causing the card issuing chain to be directly broken. Its qualifications and capital reserves are weak, and its business stability is questionable.
Core does not have first-tier VC locked tokens as ballast; BitGo, Valour, and Mobilum are all service providers. The core goal of service providers is to earn service fees. Once regulatory risks increase or business revenue falls short of expectations, the channel can be shut down at any time.
SatPay's narrative of relying on payment fees to achieve CORE buybacks is entirely dependent on this outsourced channel. Treating the outsourced channel as a long-term stronghold overestimates the depth of their binding. Once the channel encounters problems, the buyback expectations will directly fall through. Interviewed by the official! Let's talk about my "Three Iron Rules" for shorting altcoins. Which one do you agree with the most?
Just finished exchanging recent trading insights with OKX officials, and took the chance to test everyone's trading instincts in the square. 📈📉
My overall current approach is defensive: macros show no incremental funds, mid-term elections are approaching, plus after BTC's big surge, a pullback is highly likely, and new narratives aren't catching on. So my core strategy now is: avoid spot longs and look for large-cap altcoins that are overbought to short.
My three iron rules for shorting:
1. Choose large market caps (good liquidity, easy to trigger a stampede)
2. Choose overbought ones (ample room to fall)
3. Choose marginalized ones (no strong backing, no support)
🌟 Classic battle: ZRO
The market fell but it didn't follow, then it released positive news on a big unlock day. This kind of operation seriously violates market rules and is a crazy test of retail investors' bottom line. I didn't hesitate and kept adding shorts at the highs, and the logic proved completely correct.
Do you think this "releasing positive news on unlock day" trick is deep? What conditions do you value most in trading?
Feel free to leave your "pitfall avoidance guide" or "shorting tricks" in the comments, let's copy each other's homework! 🤝#Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？
(Not investment advice, the market has risks, remember to cut losses) Institutions have continuously revised upward before the earnings report: consensus operating profit expectations rose from 74 trillion → 76.8 trillion → Citibank sees 81.3 trillion (about 8% higher than the original consensus)
Driving factors: HBM4 long-term contract price lock + DRAM/NAND price increases + AI inference KV-cache demand, profitability visibility is very strong
History: consecutive quarters of beats, Q2 already set a record, Q3 is a "cycle + AI" double hit, numerically the easiest to exceed
#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ Institutions have continuously revised upward before the earnings report: consensus operating profit expectations rose from 74 trillion → 76.8 trillion → Citigroup sees 81.3 trillion (about 8% higher than the original consensus)
Driving factors: HBM4 long-term contract price lock + DRAM/NAND price increases + AI inference KV-cache demand, profitability visibility is very strong
History: consecutive quarters of beats, Q2 already set a record, Q3 is a "cycle + AI" double hit, numerically the easiest to exceed #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ Pressed the same stone twice: the second time the money doubled, but it dropped by 0.1.
07:00 touched 11.02 using only 389,000 contracts, closed at 10.63 with a long upper shadow. 08:00 used 844,000 contracts (the largest volume of the day, nearly a quarter of the 24h volume), the highest was only 10.95, down 0.07, closed at 10.64—it's not that no one is above, someone is pressing.
09:00-10:00 699,000 contracts cut from 10.95 down to 10.33. 11:00-12:00 337,000 contracts only recovered to 10.76, didn't even reach 10.95. 13:00 a bearish candle with 209,000 contracts pushed back to 10.59, currently 10.41, only 0.08 away from 10.33.
24h -1.89% / MA20 10.68 with a resistance of 0.27. It's only 02:00 Eastern US time, market opens at 21:30, no anchor.
Rebound between 10.55~10.62 but closed bearish with volume at 10.33 only 1.5 times, longs to 11.02 only 1.8 times, neither side reaches 2, no trade.
Waiting for a breakout: short if volume closes below 10.33 (≥200,000 contracts) with a rebound between 10.36~10.40, stop loss at 10.52, target 10.10, odds 2.0.
$KORU
(Not investment advice, trade at your own risk)BTC's market situation these days is worth pondering.
From Monday to Wednesday, about $1.075 billion flowed into the US spot BTC ETFs, indicating significant institutional entry, yet the price has not risen accordingly. The turning point in the market came at the end of the week, with continuous outflows on Thursday and Friday totaling about $774 million. Preliminary data shows a net inflow for the whole week, but buying momentum has clearly cooled, and the divergence between bulls and bears is widening.
Both Cz and Fidelity have mentioned that Bitcoin's traditional four-year cycle logic has long been broken.
The foundation of the four-year cycle comes from Bitcoin's halving mechanism: a fixed total supply cap of 21 million, with the current circulating supply around 19.9678 million. However, the explosive effect brought by halving has significantly weakened by now, making it difficult to simply apply historical trends to predict bull or bear markets.
Going forward, judging BTC's market phase should no longer focus on the halving cycle but rather on the trend of US dollar depreciation and the real market enthusiasm. $BTC #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ Personally, I think the short-term benefits of crypto and options trading are still there, but in the long run, the emotional nature of retail traders determines the strong cyclicality of their performance. The key is whether trading users can be converted into wealth management users (such as Gold subscriptions). What does everyone think?”$OKB
The platform token's performance is close to the overall market; does it require an independent event explanation?
In this morning's spot snapshot, OKB's 24-hour price change was -1.34%, ranging between 106 and 109.37 USDT.
The pullback is similar to BTC's, so there is no need to create platform events to explain daily fluctuations. Research should separately verify business demand, token supply, and overall risk appetite to avoid letting price act as evidence for news.
If the market stabilizes but relative weakness continues, then look for specific supply and demand changes; if the recovery is synchronized, market factors should still be prioritized.Is BTC falling below 80,000 just the beginning? Bulls are still waiting for a reversal, while bears are eyeing below $79,800
$BTC is currently around $80,696, down -0.61% intraday, with the price close to the 7-day low of $80,513 and just one step away from the 30-day low of $79,800. The EMA structure is weak: the price is below the short-term moving averages, with EMA7 around $82,068 and EMA25 around $83,065, forming continuous resistance above; the MACD death cross has persisted for 25 daily bars, and the green histogram is still expanding. You can be bullish, but don’t mistake a small rebound for a reversal signal.
What’s more concerning is the lack of volume-price coordination. Today’s trading volume is only 0.19 times the 7-day average volume, with no incremental funds supporting the rebound; instead, high-level chips continue to be digested; net capital outflow is about 288 BTC, and large orders are also biased bearish. Many retail investors love to shout “it won’t fall further” at this kind of level, then blindly bottom-fish and hold long positions, ultimately misreading a breakdown as a “main force shakeout.”
The key now is not whether bulls can shout, but whether $80,513 can hold: if the daily candle breaks down effectively, the market may continue to test the $79,800 level; if this area is lost, the risk of a structural pullback will further increase. The short logic is not superstition about decline, but respect for the pressure given by the trend, volume, and capital flow together. Do you think this is the last drop, or the starting point of the bulls’ shattered illusions? 🟢$HYPE is around 76 USD, still panicking and selling at a loss? The most interesting market situation is that everyone is focused on the decline, but no one seriously calculates how much the protocol is actually buying every day!
Brothers, HYPE has retraced more than 20% from around 98 USD, making it painful for those chasing highs, and the bears are starting to feel confident. But as of October 26, the latest data shows that Hyperliquid generated about 83 million USD in fees over the past 30 days, and the protocol's aid fund repurchased about 749,500 HYPE, worth approximately 56 million USD during the same period! This is the core logic that bulls should pay attention to.
📢 There's another new development! On October 23, Hyperliquid Strategies increased the company's stock repurchase authorization to 100 million USD. Note, this repurchase is for company stock, not a direct buyback of HYPE, but if it reduces token selling pressure in the future, it could indirectly affect market supply and demand.
📊 Key levels highlighted!
Currently, around 75 USD is the short-term observation zone; only consider rebound opportunities if it stabilizes and shows higher lows; above that, first watch 79 USD, and after a volume-supported hold, look at 82–85 USD. If it effectively breaks below 75 USD, be cautious of further decline and avoid blindly adding positions.
Personally, I lean towards focusing on HYPE's rebound opportunities, based on protocol revenue, ongoing buybacks, and the development of the perpetual contract market. But don't overlook the planned unlocking of about 9.92 million HYPE on November 6, as supply pressure still exists.
$ETH $BTC When quantum risk truly materializes and the market confirms it as a real threat, a 50% drop is a moderate probability scenario but not inevitable; the final extent of the drop depends on whether upgrades can be implemented and how existing high-risk coins are handled. Approximately 30% of BTC across the network are high-risk coins with exposed public keys, while the rest, such as new SegWit addresses, do not expose public keys unless actively transacted. The risk is layered, not all bitcoins will be unlocked and stolen simultaneously.
1. Under what conditions is BTC likely to be halved (drop by half) directly?
1. The market confirms the practical use of quantum machines, but the Bitcoin community fails to reach consensus on upgrades.
Bitcoin has no centralized management; post-quantum signature upgrades (like BIP-360) require broad coordination among miners, exchanges, wallets, and whales. If debates drag on and hard fork proposals fail, the market will apply a huge "security discount." Institutions and ETF funds, being risk-averse, will reduce holdings en masse to hedge, causing capital flight combined with cascading liquidations in derivatives, easily triggering a deep 50% level crash. This is what many experts fear most: not quantum theft happening immediately, but confidence collapse caused by governance and coordination failure.
2. The "store first, break later" risk narrative is repriced by institutions.
On-chain historical transactions are permanently stored; attackers could have already collected all exposed public keys in advance, waiting for quantum devices to mature to crack them in bulk. Even if no theft has occurred yet, if the market deems this risk unsolvable, it will refuse to assign the original valuation. With 30% of assets in high-risk status, valuations could be halved, a pricing reaction the market can easily give.
3. Structural capital shifts occur, with some funds moving to native post-quantum resistant assets.
The market will compare: BTC’s underlying algorithm has a long-term security time bomb, while coins like STRK designed as post-quantum L1s from the ground up, and privacy coins like ZEC undergoing post-quantum upgrades, will absorb some of the safe-haven capital. Capital outflows from BTC to quantum-safe narrative coins will further amplify BTC selling pressure, driving the halving scenario.
4. Amplified downside due to macro and regulatory resonance.
If quantum negative news coincides with high interest rates, continuous ETF redemptions, and tightening regulations, multiple negative factors will resonate, causing confidence to collapse and potentially triggering a halving or even deeper drop.
2. Under what conditions will there be no halving, only a mild correction (20%-30% drop)?
1. The Bitcoin community reaches consensus early and successfully completes a soft fork upgrade, launching standard post-quantum resistant addresses.
Holders have ample time to migrate coins from high-risk addresses to new post-quantum addresses. The risk becomes a solvable engineering problem with a timeline, not a deadlock. The market will only apply a small risk discount, not a 50% haircut.
2. Most high-risk coins are dormant (e.g., early Satoshi coins, lost private key coins) and won’t be stolen in bulk in the short term.
Even if theoretically crackable, these coins are not actively traded and won’t cause concentrated sell-offs. The market will rationally differentiate: only early reused addresses and P2PK addresses are high-risk; modern SegWit addresses have limited risk and won’t be uniformly discounted by 50%.
3. The two most extreme scenarios:
- Optimistic: orderly upgrade completed, risks gradually resolved, only short-term volatility with shallow declines;
- Pessimistic: upgrade stuck in long-term splits, fork failure, first large quantum theft confirmed, consensus severely damaged, drop far exceeding 50%.
4. Key distinction: is the drop expected first, or does it happen after actual theft?
Most likely, the drop won’t wait for hackers to steal coins but will be a market risk anticipation and pre-pricing. Once authoritative institutions confirm practical quantum computers can break ECDSA, institutions will rush to sell first, causing prices to react ahead of the risk, i.e., the so-called "risk hasn’t arrived, price falls first." The most striking current data is that 64% of net long positions are built above $81,993. For every hour BTC hovers around $80,000, the unrealized loss pressure on these positions accumulates another layer.
$BTC is around $80,000. This week, ETF net inflows reached 301 million, ending two consecutive weeks of decline, but on Thursday and Friday combined, outflows totaled 773.5 million, with October still showing a net outflow of 314 million. The weekly figure is positive, but the monthly gap remains unfilled. $80,000 is the anchor point for the bull-bear battle, with $79,200 and the $78,000–$78,600 range coming into view below.
$ETH is around $2,300, having broken below the 100-day moving average. ETH ETFs saw outflows of 221 million this week, with a cumulative October loss of 1.18 billion. ETFs are withdrawing, but on-chain, 170,000 ETH were withdrawn from exchanges in a single day, and staking volume hit a record high. The sellable and non-sellable are diverging.
$SOL is around $101. SOL ETFs have seen cumulative outflows of 68 million this month, with zero net inflow on the 24th. The $100 level is repeatedly tested, but buying pressure is temporarily absent.
In short: The FOMC meeting will conclude on the 27th–28th, followed closely by the PCE data. The cost lines for long positions in these three coins are simultaneously being held down. ETFs turned positive weekly but have not recovered monthly. Money is waiting for data to provide a reason.
For record-keeping of market conditions only, not investment advice.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 The Fed takes no action in October—has the rate hike really peaked?
The 10-year US Treasury yield is around 4.97%, the S&P 500 is about 7623 points, and the market is clearly still digesting tightening expectations. Goldman Sachs' FCI has only tightened by 30 basis points, mainly because the market has priced in rate hikes in advance; the Fed won't see this as a reason to stop directly.
Skipping a rate hike is a strategic pause.
Skipping October is just to observe data for two more months; the probability of a final 25 basis point hike this round in December is very high.
The source of inflation is on the supply side.
Middle East tensions push up oil prices, AI computing power drives hardware price increases—these cost pressures are hard to solve by aggressive rate hikes alone; aggressively crushing demand would instead hurt employment.
The real risk is next year.
More than staying put this month, we need to guard against a secondary inflation rebound triggered by concentrated corporate price adjustments early next year.
October's pause is an illusion; December is the finale. Don't misinterpret a short-term pause as a shift.
DYOR ENA +8% to $0.208, but I'm not chasing this breakout yet.
USDe just went native on X Layer and OKX Wallet via Aave v3.
ENA is up ~13% from the $0.185 low and pressing $0.21.
The catch: the buyback is still off.
USDe sits near $4.8B vs the $7.5B trigger.
275M ENA unlock on Nov 1, and a big whale dumped 14M ENA last week.
I think the catalyst is real, but supply is heavy.
Holding $0.21 opens room; losing $0.20 kills the move.
Breakout or bull trap before the unlock?
$ENA $ETH
#EthenaLast week, the US spot BTC ETF finally had a net inflow of about $301 million, but on Thursday alone, $636 million flowed out, and on Friday another $138 million left. The first three days saw an inflow of over $1 billion, but the last two days gave back most of it. The funds fluctuated repeatedly.
$BTC is now hovering around 80,300, with a 24-hour high of 81,070 and a low of 79,840. The volatility is very narrow, funding rates are roughly neutral, and contract leverage hasn't noticeably increased, indicating that no one wants to recklessly add positions at this time.
I feel the ETF buying is still there but very fragile. A large portion came in from Monday to Wednesday, then IBIT and FBTC led the way out in the last two days. It looks more like probing positions rather than continuous buying. The price has held above 80,000, but the volume around 81,000 is insufficient to push higher.
In the short term, I consider 79,800 to 80,000 as the support zone. If it breaks 79,800, reduce positions and wait. The resistance above is between 81,000 and 81,300; if it can't break through, don't chase. Focus on light swing trading with a stop loss below 79,600. Don't stubbornly fight the sentiment.
#Strategy财报前瞻：BTC账面收益大幅反弹 Bitcoin chips are concentrated in the hands of a few big players. Even if these big players choose to stick to consensus, it cannot stop the reasons for a deep market correction summary
1. The "holding firm" by big players mostly means locking their positions without moving, not continuously injecting new funds to support the market
Whales and institutions hoard coins, many just hold without selling, but they won't keep injecting new funds to continuously buy. Holding chips ≠ unlimited buying pressure.
Stopping a price drop requires continuous new buying power; big players just don't sell, but they won't keep spending heavily to absorb all floating sell orders in the market. Locked positions can only reduce some supply but cannot actively prop up the price, which is the core difference.
2. There is no unified consensus among big players; some hold firm, others take profits in batches when prices rise
Don't assume all major holders share the same stance. Early whales, ETF institutions, and strategic enterprises have vastly different holding costs. Some long-term believers choose to hold; others face asset rebalancing, risk control, repayments, and fund redemption pressures, and will reduce positions when the market weakens.
As long as some big players choose to sell, it offsets the support from those holding firm, causing internal division and preventing a unified defense force.
3. Tradable floating chips mean pricing power is not in the hands of locked big players
A large amount of Bitcoin is dormant long-term, but short-term price movements are determined by circulating supply, ETF subscription/redemption, leveraged positions, and retail trading. Even if 90% of chips are locked by whales, if floating selling pressure exceeds buying, prices will still fall.
Locked chips are just stock and do not participate in market bidding, so they don't directly support real-time prices. The thinner the liquidity, the easier it is for small sell orders to cause large price drops.
4. Macro liquidity is the top-level trend; no matter how strong the belief, it cannot resist the US dollar cycle
Bitcoin is a high-risk asset, with pricing fundamentally influenced by Federal Reserve rates, US Treasury yields, inflation, and geopolitical situations. In high interest rate cycles, capital naturally prefers fixed income assets and avoids cash-flow-less crypto assets.
This is a systemic macro environment that cannot be reversed by the consensus of a few big holders. When liquidity tightens, institutional risk control will passively reduce positions, which is a passive rule unaffected by personal beliefs.
5. Derivatives leverage is an independent amplifier of declines, unrelated to whether big players hold firm
There are many contract long positions and margin holdings in the market. Once key price levels are broken, it triggers cascading liquidations and automatic market sell orders, forming a downward spiral.
This is a programmed forced liquidation process; regardless of whether whales want to defend the market, liquidation orders will automatically flood out. Even if big players don't sell coins, the leverage liquidation wave can keep pushing prices down deeply.
6. Regulatory risks and long-term cryptographic risks are systemic negatives; consensus cannot withstand regulatory and technological pressures
National regulatory policies, anti-money laundering audits, and quantum computing long-term security risks are underlying narrative risks.
Once these risks ferment, institutional risk budgets will shrink directly. Institutions have compliance boundaries and won't rely solely on belief to heavily buy against the trend. The personal belief of big players cannot change global capital's risk pricing.
7. Incremental funds are exhausted; in a stock game environment, belief has no new capital relay
Bull market rises rely on continuous influx of new off-exchange participants and funds to take over. When market heat fades and incremental off-exchange funds stop, the market becomes a zero-sum game.
No matter how many coins big players hold, they cannot conjure off-exchange funds out of thin air. Without new participants to take over, relying only on old players exchanging among themselves, the downtrend is hard to reverse.
8. Big players' holdings also face passive pressure; they don't hold forever unconditionally
Many institutions and enterprises buy coins with borrowed money, facing interest and repayment pressures; ETFs face client redemptions, which require selling BTC to pay out.
When the market keeps falling and margin is insufficient, even firmly bullish institutions will passively reduce holdings. The so-called "holding firm" has limits and is not unconditional permanent holding. The volatility this week will still be intense. Although oil has pulled back a bit, it is still around 100. Right now, too much capital is choosing to seek safety in U.S. Treasuries rather than gold. The liquidity in the pool is somewhat insufficient.
Coupled with the uncertainty of the interest rate meeting in the early hours of the 29th, most people are currently watching and seeking safety.
If the rebound starts early this week, it means expectations are being prepaid; after the rebound, there will be a retreat. If there is no rebound and the market remains volatile, it means waiting for negative news to surface. We still need to probe the short-term bottom.
It’s uncertain whether this level can fully stabilize, so one can only slowly operate on the left side; for ultra-short-term trades, buy a little when it’s oversold and exit the same day.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 This morning's short position was in the right direction, gaining 4.7 points, but no profit was made — the stop loss was placed incorrectly.
At 08:00, a volume of 367,000 contracts (4.5 times the previous 81,000) opened at 85.27, surged to 86.69, then dropped to 83.05. The 86.69 high was only 0.14 below the 24h high of 86.83, yet it was 0.29 above the stop loss at 86.40 — a spike that triggered the stop loss on the short position before the price dropped.
All targets were hit: 83.91 reached before noon, 83.40 by 9 AM, with a low of 82.08. Placing the stop loss outside 86.83 yielded 2.6 times the profit; placing it at 86.40 resulted in a -1R loss.
Current price is 83.42 / 24h change -1.02% / MA20 at 84.80. The new resistance is at 85.02 at 13:00 (82,000 contracts, closed bearish); the support at 82.08 has not been broken. It's only 02:00 Eastern Time, and the 21:30 market open is what really counts.
If the price rebounds between 84.0~84.3 but fails to break through and closes bearish with volume (≥50,000), short with a stop loss at 84.90 and a target of 82.08, offering a risk-reward ratio of 2.8.
If it closes above 85.02 with volume (≥80,000) and then pulls back to 84.7~84.9, go long with a stop loss at 84.10 and a target of 86.83, risk-reward ratio 2.9. Avoid trading around 83.4.
$SOXL
(Not investment advice, trade at your own risk)$MON is bearish. On November 24, there will be a cliff unlock, approximately 33% of the already unlocked circulating supply, and there are 29 days left until that day. The real focus should be on the week from November 17 to 23. Our backtesting of similar large unlocks shows that underperformance against the market almost always concentrates in the 7 days before the unlock; two sample periods align in direction, with three out of four closing negative. There is no stable direction after the unlock day, so there's no need to bet on the 24th itself. Currently, the contract market is very small; liquidations are mostly scattered long positions, leverage is not stacked, and the price is mainly determined by spot. The chart shows lower highs and bearish moving averages, consistent with supply logic, indicating this weakness will likely drag through the window period. Starting from the 17th, watch two things: whether $MON starts to lag the market and whether the rebound has volume. The condition to turn bullish is to reclaim and hold 0.02193 before the 17th, while remaining relatively strong against the market during the window period. If both conditions are met, then withdraw the bearish view. Turnaround, turnaround! As soon as the votes opened, the Brazil ETF perpetual futures plunged over 23% in one day 😂
The weekend Brazilian presidential runoff results came out: Lula, in his 80s, got about 51.8%, his opponent about 48.2%, becoming president for the fourth time. The market had been betting on the other side all week; at Friday's close, the ETF tracking the Brazilian stock market was still around $42. After the vote turnaround, before the US market officially opened, the after-hours quote was smashed down to around $35, dropping nearly 20% overnight.
The EWZUSDT perpetual on European exchanges was even more brutal, down about 23.4% in 24 hours, crashing from around $45 at open to about $34, with a trading volume of approximately $65.5 million and nearly 400,000 trades. Watching the first three hours after the vote count came out, trading volume already exceeded $50 million, about 16 times the previous day's full-day volume, and open interest surged from about $2.9 million to $7.5 million. The Brazilian real futures once dropped over 10%, and related oil stocks were also hammered.
Those holding election-related positions over the weekend basically let the votes decide for them. This kind of overnight pricing makes you sweat for your positions just watching.
For beginners, it's recommended to watch more and trade less; when buying coins, only buy $BTC When the whole world is waiting for the same door to open, the real danger is often hidden behind another window.
This week, the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting is about to take place.
The market has almost reached a consensus! It is highly likely that there will be no rate change in October, with the probability of maintaining the current rate exceeding 90%.
Retail investors breathe a sigh of relief at this number, thinking "the bad news is all out, it's time to rise."
But this is precisely the biggest trap.
The real fatal issue is never whether there will be a rate hike in October, but that after the meeting, the market will suddenly realize that a rate hike in December is still looming overhead.
Goldman Sachs has clearly predicted that the Federal Reserve will adopt a "skip one hike" pace, skipping October and implementing the second rate hike of this cycle in December.
ING's judgment is the same: October is just to buy observation time, and December will be the real restart.
What does this mean?
It means that even if the October meeting maintains the current rate, as long as the statement and press conference reveal any hint of a hawkish tone "paving the way for a December hike," the market logic will instantly switch from "bad news is all out" to "the next one will hurt more."
DWS's chief economist bluntly states that the most likely scenario in October is "hawkish pause."
Maintain rates, but with a sharp edge in the words.
And Federal Reserve Chair Powell is precisely someone who almost never provides forward guidance.
He won't give you a clear anchor, and the market will fall into greater uncertainty after the meeting.
Uncertainty means volatility, the roar before the meat grinder starts.
My short position is still in hand, with an average price of 2583, and the floating profit has already exceeded 10 times.
If the market temporarily rebounds because of "no rate hike in October," that will be my window to add to my short position.
If after the meeting, the market starts to price in the December hike early, the decline will come even faster.
Don't bet on the meeting's result. Bet on how the market will interpret the next result after that outcome is announced.
$BTC $ETH
$SOL
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $PEPE This market situation is a bit absurd.
The coin price keeps climbing, but the funding rate has been crushed to an extreme negative value, with shorts paying interest every day to hold on stubbornly.
Coincidentally, Sun directly withdrew 7.2 trillion spot tokens from the exchange. Big players don’t care about technical indicators; they openly move the tokens into their own wallets.
A large portion of the spot circulating supply has been pulled out, while the contracts are still full of stubborn shorts.
As soon as there’s any bullish candle, all these shorts will be forced to liquidate and become fuel for the rally.
#PEPE
$PEPE
👇Night session anomaly observation: Three targets strengthen simultaneously, but the driving factors behind them differ and cannot be simply categorized as the same type of market. **$SLX｜Rental income logic combined with sector sentiment** Currently at 0.05104, up 2.22% intraday. SLX splits the long-term equity of wafer fabs into on-chain shares, with the income logic mainly derived from quarterly rent rather than solely relying on spot price fluctuations. Recently, the price has slowly risen from around 0.048, but the trading volume is only $4.52 million, indicating relatively limited liquidity; large trades may trigger significant volatility. The warming sentiment in the storage sector may provide some support, but whether it can sustain requires observation of subsequent transactions and capital flows. **$UNITREE｜Up nearly 25% in a week, clearly news-driven** Currently at 94.95, continuously rising from around 76 over the past week, with a cumulative increase close to 25%. On-chain shares related to Unitree Robotics are easily influenced by news such as product delivery and financing progress. Due to the relatively small market size, news stimuli may further amplify price volatility. Going forward, it is important to distinguish between genuine business progress and short-term speculative hype. After continuous gains, the risk of chasing highs is also worth caution. **$RE｜Slight rebound, but liquidity remains a key issue** Currently at 0.37724, rebounding 1.7%. As a target related to on-chain risk compensation funds, its trading volume is only $310,000, showing clearly weak liquidity. Such targets may rapidly surge in the short term but can also quickly give back gains. To form an independent market, it still requiresFranklin Templeton has submitted the registration for two dividend-reinvesting Bitcoin index ETF shares to Nasdaq: FBEQ and FIBT. Form 8-A was filed on October 22, with the prospectus effective date set for October 27, and trading has not yet started. The index initially consists of about 95% U.S. stocks and 5% Bitcoin, with dividends reinvested into BTC on the next trading day after the ex-dividend date. Quarterly rebalancing: if BTC weight exceeds 5%, it is cut back to 4.5%; if the closing price rises over 20% between two reviews, it is also reset to 4.5%. Fees are 0.09% for FBEQ and 0.19% for FIBT. CoinGecko spot BTC is about $80,131 (snapshot around 14:05 Beijing time), down about 0.43% in the last 24 hours.
The key point is not just that there are two more Bitcoin ETFs, but the rule that dividends are mandatorily reinvested into BTC. Opponents might say the 5% starting allocation is too small and that since trading hasn't started, it doesn't represent new inflows. However, the prospectus clearly states the reinvestment mechanism and circuit breaker reset; once effective, dividends will continuously buy BTC as they are paid.
The observation window is set for one week after the prospectus becomes effective on October 27: first, check if there are tradable tickers. If no listing or trading occurs within a week, treat this as registration news rather than actual capital inflow.
$BTC
#Bitcoin #ETF$ATOM
On October 28th, at 8 PM Korea time, Upbit suspended deposits and withdrawals of ATOM from that moment.
The previous message just mentioned Upbit putting INIT on the warning list, now it's Upbit again, but these are two different matters. The announcement clearly states it is to cooperate with the Cosmos Hub network upgrade; trading continues as usual during this period, and the resumption time will be notified separately. Those who think a suspension of deposits and withdrawals means a run are mostly scared by rumors.
I checked the price. Upbit spot is 2,190 KRW, which converts to 1.654 USD at an exchange rate of 1,324, while OKX is at 1.64 USD, a premium of less than 1%. If anyone is rushing to exit, this price difference is too small to matter.
The market is still thin; OKX perpetual positions total 4.16 million USD, with daily volume over 2 million. Spot rose 1.3% in a day, but the contract funding rate is negative, so few are willing to pay to chase longs.
I also glanced at Upbit's 52-week range: it reached 4,750 KRW last November, now at 2,190. I don't touch these old coins. But for announcements like this, I spend a couple more minutes reading the reason fully, to avoid mistaking technical maintenance for a run.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 At 7:50 this morning, Bitcoin fell below 80,000, with Coinbase's one-minute chart hitting 79,732 and closing at 79,777, showing a long lower shadow before recovering. This is the first real breach in over a month.
But the more important event today is that gold also dropped. Spot gold is at 3,991, down from 4,140 six days ago. Brent crude is at 110.46.
In a week of real war and oil prices at 110, two "safe-haven assets" are being sold together, with only crude oil rising. This is not a failure of safe havens but a liquidity squeeze—when institutions need cash, they sell the most liquid assets, not the least trusted.
On October 30, options expire on 140,844 BTC, with a notional value of about 10 billion. The biggest pain point is at 78,000. This figure has three caveats: it changes with every contract opened, academic conclusions differ, and three platforms calculate it as 76,000/79,000/80,000.
The real informative aspect is the distribution shape: bullish positions above 95,000 account for 13% of open interest, with a notional value of 1.6 billion, requiring a 23% rise in four days to have any intrinsic value. Put options are densely clustered at 70,000, 72,000, and 80,000. Hedgers buy insurance down below, speculators buy lottery tickets above.
Funding rates remain positive: +0.0054% per 8 hours, annualized at 6%. Volume is 32.7 billion, down 26% from the previous day. Open interest is 53.3 billion.
These three numbers together indicate: the price has dropped 36%, but there is no surrender. A real crash would show negative funding rates plus a collapse in open interest; neither is present today. This is fatigue, not a crash.
Key levels: 84,000–85,000 rebound zone, 82,000 resistance, 80,000 lost, 79,000 short-term support, 78,000 magnet, 77,500 lower boundary.
My probabilities: grinding between 78,000–80,000 until delivery 45%, breaking 78,000 to 75,000–77,000 35%, returning above 82,000 20%.
The asymmetry is: 5% down, 5% up, but the conditions to trigger a drop are easier to meet.
Are you worried about breaking 78,000, or are you adding positions at this level again?
Not investment advice, risk at your own discretion.
#MarketAnalysis $BTC$BTC
I never follow long positions with 30x leverage that keep adding as the price drops. Today I ran into a perfect example again.
The BTC long position ranked fourth on Hyperliquid opened on October 23 at an entry price of 81168. When the price dropped to 79322 today, he didn’t exit; instead, he added another 302.5 coins and added $2.15 million in margin. Now holding 795 coins worth over $63 million, with an unrealized loss of $878,000.
I calculated that from 81168 to the lowest 79322, the price difference is 2.3%. With 30x leverage, that means 70% of equity is wiped out. Only 30% remains to add margin, which suggests this person either made substantial profits before or has more funds in the wallet.
The same address also holds a ZEC long position of 4717 coins, entry price 1195, now at 1212, so this side is profitable. BTC is now around 80200, down only half a percent in 24 hours, and the perpetual funding rate is slightly positive. The market isn’t as scary as the breaking news suggests.
I used to follow whales adding positions, thinking someone was supporting the price. After being taught a few times, I realized it’s not about being right, it’s about being able to hold on. I can’t hold on, so I just watch the show.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Conclusion first: $ENA rose 9% today, but the buyback funds haven't arrived yet; what came first is the unlocking.
After Ethena's August proposal "All net income to buy back ENA" fee switch (The Block 8-27), the new proposal on 10-21 changed the trigger conditions and unlocking schedule: USDe supply must reach 7.5 billion to start buybacks (Pluang, CryptoTicker). According to DefiLlama on 10-26, USDe is only at 4.583 billion, priced at 0.99952, still 63.6% short.
What landed first is the unlocking of 275 million ENA on November 1, about 56.9 million USD, accounting for 2.05% of the 1.34 billion circulating supply. At the same time, Arthur Hayes transferred 14 million ENA to Cumberland, with a cumulative transfer out of 28.81 million USD (TokenPost 10-25).
Market: ENA-USDT-SWAP at 0.2084, 24h high 0.2115 low 0.18868, volume 69.67 million USD, open interest 17.92 million USD; funding rate settles every 8 hours, multiple periods at 0.0001, annualized 10.95%.
Market cap 2.81 billion, 86% below ATH 1.52. Can this wave of expectations hold until November 1?