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Can PONS still be saved?
Today, PONS's data is basically flat compared to yesterday, with a daily trading volume of about $24M. Compared to the previous all-time high of $923M, it has shrunk by 97.4%.
Previously, I predicted that PONS's daily trading volume might stabilize between $30M and $40M. Now it seems that was too optimistic; I wonder if $20M can be maintained?
Looking at Robinhood Chain, the on-chain trading volumes for the past two days were $542M and $484M respectively. Compared to the all-time high of $3.5B, it has shrunk by about 86%, and its ranking in total chain trading volume has dropped to fifth.
PONS's slump is no longer just a problem of the project itself; the overall trading activity on Robinhood Chain is continuously declining.
For PONS to turn things around, it probably has to wait for Robinhood Chain to heat up again. The Federal Reserve holding steady in October is almost a foregone conclusion, with CME data showing only about a 10% chance of a rate hike.
Economists aren't really concerned about whether there will be a hike this time; 94% expect a pause.
The real key point is that the dot plot still shows 12 members believe there should be another hike this year, and several hawkish officials are likely to directly vote against the pause at this meeting.
At that time, attention should be paid to Waller's speech to see if he signals hawkishness 🦅.
The market is betting everything on December; currently, the probability priced in for a 25 basis point hike in December has surged to nearly 68%.
$BTC is currently struggling painfully around the 80,000 level.
In the past 24 hours, the entire market liquidated $670 million, with $457 million in long positions liquidated, triggering another wave of long liquidations—basically, if you dare to chase at 80,000, you'll keep getting cut.
However, contract open interest is rising, with both longs and shorts betting.
The likely script for this week is: no rate hike in October, possibly a short-term "bad news is priced in" pulse, but as long as Waller doesn't back down in the press conference, or even hints at action in December, the little space $BTC has ground out above 80,000 will soon be squeezed back down.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 BTC｜Liquidity Watch💧 10 / 26
1. Upper magnet: 81,000 – 81,350 has accumulated over $200 million in short liquidations and stop-loss orders (highlighted on the heatmap), exactly corresponding to the BSL above the weekend's high.
2. Lower magnet: Around 78,850 has gathered $188 million in long liquidations, exactly corresponding to the SSL below the weekend's low.
3. Next is last Friday's equal-height liquidity at 82,100, gathering $200 million in liquidations.The crypto market over the weekend sent a rather glaring signal: $BTC directly broke through $80,000, hitting a low of 79,700, marking the lowest point in over a month; $ETH weakened in sync, once dropping below 2,300. The real question is not the extent of the drop itself, but who ran first and who ran the hardest this time. First, let's look at the geopolitical trigger. In recent days, the U.S. has significantly reduced personnel deployments in the Middle East, with embassies in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Lebanon, Qatar, and Jordan all shifting to limited operations. Intelligence shows that Iran's actions targeting Americans have entered an advanced stage, and Trump has publicly stated that action against Iran could be taken at any time. When risk rises, the first reaction of capital is always to withdraw, and Bitcoin, as a risk asset, is the first to be sold off. But the more critical detail lies in the capital flow: ETFs moved ahead of the price. On October 22, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of $635 million in a single day, followed by another $227 million outflow on October 24. $ETH's ETF performance was even worse—a $320 million withdrawal over a week, with outflow intensity ten times that of $BTC. This is not ordinary profit-taking but institutions proactively reducing positions before the event materializes. Here is an easily overlooked mismatch: while prices were still consolidating at high levels, the ETF channel was already bleeding continuously. Retail investors see the candlesticks, but institutions vote with their feet through liquidity. When the two directions diverge, it often means smart money is pricing in risk in advance rather than waiting for news confirmation. The outflow intensity of $ETH far exceeds that of $BTC, indicating that institutions are more#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？
HBM4 itself is a super high gross margin product
1. Product Positioning
HBM is a high-end, high-bandwidth memory paired with AI server GPUs. HBM4 offers higher bandwidth, faster speed, and a higher unit price than HBM3E, with gross margins far exceeding those of ordinary DRAM/NAND. It is one of SK Hynix's most profitable products.
2. Customer Binding
Mainly supplied to leading AI chip manufacturers like NVIDIA. The continuous capital support for AI computing power keeps driving HBM orders. Long-term supply agreements have been signed with core major customers, ensuring strong demand certainty.
3. Technological Leadership
SK Hynix is a first-tier HBM manufacturer, having delivered HBM4 samples early and steadily improved yield rates. The 12-High version has entered customer validation and supply stages, while the 16-High version is progressing continuously, maintaining technological competitiveness.
✅ Mid-to-long term: HBM4 is SK Hynix's most important profit growth engine
⚠️ Short term Q3: HBM4 is more of an "expectation story" with limited incremental profit impact this quarter. This quarter's performance mainly relies on price increases of HBM3E and regular storage.#SK Hynix Q3 earnings report is coming, can HBM4 boost profitability? Just after closing the chest under the surgical light, the monitor is still ticking. What I see is not a price curve, but an enlarged heart supplied by a single coronary artery—this is the current lesion of intelligent computing expansion. Musk said Space Exploration Technologies Corp secured $40 billion in GPU debt financing for compute chips to be delivered in the first half of 2027; meanwhile, he warned that the debt market has basically stopped funding intelligent computing data centers without other income sources and predicted that over 200 emerging intelligent computing cloud providers will fail or consolidate. Don't mistake the crash for the cause; that's just the monitor alarm. The real hemodynamic change is on the credit side: perfusion pressure drops, vascular resistance rises, duration mismatch occurs, yet myocardial oxygen consumption remains high.
Starlink and launch revenue act like collateral circulation, allowing Space Exploration Technologies Corp to maintain coronary perfusion; companies relying solely on compute leasing are like single-vessel disease, with concentrated customers, thin margins, and short debt maturities. Any credit spread widening is like donor vessel spasm, causing thrombosis at the anastomosis and myocardial stunning distally. The debt market refusing to continue funding data centers without other income is not emotional treatment but stopping ineffective perfusion; the merger phase of over 200 cloud providers is the necrotic zone after extensive myocardial stunning. The first to fall are not the smallest but those with the poorest collateral circulation. The linked tokens follow this hemodynamic pattern: price volatility is arrhythmia, credit spread is perfusion pressure; looking only at price curves is like watching heart rate without stroke volume—before ventricular fibrillation, the monitor can be very quiet. The real risk is not chip delivery delays but mismatch between financing terms and cash flow recovery, like the heart unable to eject autonomously when weaning from extracorporeal circulation; the real opportunity is not in emotional rebounds but in building income structures with multiple collateral flows. Mergers are not recovery but redrawing necrotic boundaries; debt is not a cardiotonic but a volume load—too much causes pulmonary edema. Compute expansion without collateral circulation is not growth but myocardial ischemia; the first sign of ventricular fibrillation never appears on the price chart. #spacex40bgpufinancingThree round numbers came under pressure on the same Sunday, and the resulting price action was less a clean selloff than a slow grind that punished both sides. The macro backdrop explains the mood: October rate-hold odds have climbed above 87%, with Polymarket briefly touching 94%. That should read as a tailwind, yet bulls are not pressing. The market has already moved on to pricing a December hike, and Goldman Sachs has begun flagging March of next year. When easing expectations are this fully Pouring 848,000 bitcoins directly into the raft foundation, a single quarter's unrealized gain of $2.09 billion is just rooftop neon, not a load-bearing wall. When I review such projects, I don't look at the renderings first; I check the structural calculation book first: fair value gains are book revaluations, equivalent to revaluing the floor price after land appreciation, which can raise net assets but do not automatically generate cash flow, nor do they change the load path.
What this company truly deserves attention for is the reinforcement ratio of its capital structure. Holding over 800,000 bitcoins is like making a super-large core tube a single-point main load-bearing system, with astonishing lateral stiffness, but redundancy, liquidity nodes, and dampers under extreme market conditions must be verified simultaneously. Repurchasing $176 million in preferred shares is like replacing old shear walls: if replaced with lower-cost capital for rigid repayment, it strengthens the capital structure; if done by consuming cash or continuing to leverage, it's like increasing foundation depth without dewatering—when the rainy season comes, settlement will be tested first.
Financing strategy is not about slogans; it's about duration matching and payment order. Preferred shares, convertible bonds, and common stock issuance are different grades of concrete, with completely different strength, shrinkage rates, and construction windows. Accelerating expansion at the peak of unrealized gains is like adding a floor on an uninspected slab; repairing the balance sheet through revaluation, extending debt duration, and reducing interest rigidity—that's structural reinforcement. The linkage of related token targets is more like a glass curtain wall: it reflects the outline of the main structure and amplifies light and shadow, but the curtain wall never bears the core tube's load. The underlying net assets thicken due to coin price revaluation, and token prices will be revalued; premium discounts, liquidity, and redemption paths are the node welds that must be inspected.
I only recognize one construction bottom line: treating unrealized gains as cash flow is like treating renderings as as-built drawings; if the next capital allocation chart does not clearly mark the reinforcement ratio of cash flow, the taller the building, the sooner you hear hollow sounds when the wind blows. #strategyq3btcgains$ONDO
Tokenized real-world assets connect blockchain infrastructure with financial products linked to traditional markets. Ondo operates in this space, where regulatory clarity, asset transparency, and access restrictions are just as important as technical execution. Growth in tokenized assets does not automatically translate into equal demand for the associated token. The distinction between product adoption and token value remains essential when evaluating this sector. Reviewing the weekend market, how should we operate today?
From the market perspective, BTC previously attempted to break through $85,000 but failed to hold above it, with obvious selling pressure above. On the last trading day last Friday, the spot ETF saw a net outflow of funds, with BlackRock-related outflows of about $110 million and a total market net outflow of about $138 million.
The most critical level right now is $79,000!
If this level can hold, there is still a chance for a technical rebound; but if $79,000 is effectively broken down, the focus should shift to support around $77,000 below.
Currently, the price is near $80,000. Should we buy the dip or short? My bias remains bearish, but I do not recommend blindly shorting at low levels. First, after the recent CPI release, the market has generally weakened and sentiment has not clearly improved; second, uncertainty remains around the US midterm elections, and macro risks may continue to affect risk assets; plus, with the Fed's FOMC meeting approaching, policy signals are still unclear, so short-term market fluctuations are possible.
$BTC: Watch for a rebound in the $81,000–$85,000 range and look for shorting opportunities based on actual price action; if $79,000 is effectively broken, then focus on support near $77,000.
$ETH: Watch for a rebound in the $2,350–$2,370 range and wait for signs of resistance before considering shorting.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ BTC narrowly defends the 80,000 mark, is there a turnaround after leverage liquidation?
Bitcoin experienced intense volatility over the weekend, briefly dipping to $79,200 before barely reclaiming the psychological $80,000 level. In the past 24 hours, approximately $547 million in leveraged positions across the network were liquidated, with over 110,000 traders facing liquidation, causing market sentiment to hit a freezing point.
However, on-chain data reveals a glimmer of hope. CryptoQuant shows that the one-year change in whale holdings has narrowed significantly from a previous reduction of about 282,000 BTC to just a 39,000 BTC decrease. Although it has not yet turned into a net increase, the selling pace of large holders has clearly slowed, easing supply-side pressure.
From a technical perspective, if a solid bottom can be established near $80,000, combined with the concentrated clearing of high-leverage positions, the market's fragility may actually decrease. Once selling pressure exhaustion is confirmed, BTC has the potential to recover toward the $84,000 range. The current bleakness may well be an expression of extreme sentiment rather than the end of the trend.
$BTC $ETH
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 On the eve of the FOMC: Don't bet two days as one direction
The real challenge this week is two days, not choosing one direction:
1) Wednesday, October 28, 14:00 Eastern Time, FOMC decision. The probability of "no change" on Polymarket has reached 94%, up from 52% on October 14. $HYPE spent 67 million dollars on buybacks in one month, yet HYPE still dropped 22%.
The positive news didn't even make a splash.
The market clearly can't hold it; the official buy orders are hanging below, and big players are just conveniently dumping spot assets into it.
If buybacks worked, the market would have already topped out. This current pattern clearly shows that whoever is supporting the bottom up front is just being used as a stepping stone by big funds looking to exit.
Bulls hoping buybacks will save them are just fooling themselves this time.80,000 was smashed three times, but the group on-chain never stopped
Watching $BTC hover around 80,000 back and forth, honestly, it's a bit frustrating.
Four consecutive daily red candles, three consecutive weekly red candles, 80,000 has turned from "support" into a meat grinder of bulls and bears stabbing each other. The forums are full of voices saying "80,000 will break," ETFs have seen a net outflow of $67.41 million since October, and the sentiment is indeed bleak. But if you only look at this side, you will most likely miss what’s happening underneath.
$BTC: Under obvious bearish news, there’s a very strong hidden line
First, admit that the short-term structure is bearish. The price is running below the mid-to-long-term moving averages, rebound highs keep dropping, 68% of derivatives longs have been liquidated, and the long-short ratio is "artificially high," indicating more people are holding positions than actively attacking. None of this is false.
But what’s really worth pausing to look at is another set of data.
The 365-day simple moving average lies between 79,200 and 80,500. Over the past 9 days, the price has been tightly pressed between 80,000 and 86,000, and the 30-day volatility has compressed from 13% to 6%. When volatility converges to this extent, it usually means not "the market is over," but "the direction is about to burst out."
More importantly: ETFs are selling, whales are buying. CryptoQuant data shows Bitcoin whales have net accumulated about 243,000 $BTC in less than three months, worth over $20 billion at current prices. The one-year whale holding change indicator narrowed from -282k $BTC to -39k $BTC, and selling pressure has been exhausting since July. What you see on the chart is 80,000 being repeatedly smashed; on-chain, you see wallets holding 10 to 10,000 coins accumulating at the fastest pace since February this year.
This is not a "call to bottom-fish," but an objective divergence: marginal sellers are decreasing, large holders are increasing, and the price is pressed near the moving averages. This structure won’t last forever. Glassnode frames corporate treasuries and ETFs’ cost basis between 80,000–81,500, meaning this level is not just a psychological barrier but a real cost line of substantial holdings. If it breaks, they hurt; if it holds, they have reason to defend.
$ETH: The supply story is real, but it lacks a "spark"
On the $ETH side, the chip structure is indeed solid.
Staking volume hit a record, about 43.7 to 43.8 million $ETH locked in validators, accounting for 35% to 36% of supply. Exchange balances have been squeezed to a historic low of 3.49%. To translate: the chips that can be dumped anytime are visibly decreasing.
But I don’t intend to overstate this story. Supply tightening is a "condition," not a "trigger." October spot $ETH ETFs saw a net outflow of about $955 million, and BlackRock’s products also had large outflows; short-term marginal buyers are indeed weak. The price halved from the August high to around 2,300, not because staking isn’t enough, but because fewer people are willing to bid at the margin.
So the significance of 2,300 is not that it’s an "iron bottom," but that it’s the psychological referee line for bulls and bears this round. Closing above it on the daily chart means the supply squeeze logic is still on the table; closing below means short-term trend strength must be acknowledged. Repeated bottom tests and rebounds in the past indicate funds are absorbing in this area, but absorption doesn’t mean immediate rally. What’s being ground down is never the price, but people’s patience.
The macro card: don’t wait for rate cuts, wait for "expectations to be fully priced in"
The original post said "just missing a macro catalyst," which is half right, but the direction needs correction.
On October 28 FOMC, CME and Polymarket show a hold rate probability between 87% and 94%. The market has long stopped pricing in a rate cut in October. The real suppressing variable is that the probability of a rate hike in December remains above 80%. In other words, the macro "bad news" has been mostly priced in but not fully realized.
If the FOMC holds steady as expected and the wording isn’t more hawkish than the market has digested, it’s not a "positive" for risk assets but rather "the hanging sword being lowered." What $BTC and $ETH need now is precisely a window of "uncertainty removal," not a rate cut.
My position discipline, clearly stated
No all-in on the left side, no chasing highs on the right side—this is my own rule, and I suggest you consider it.
$BTC: 79,200 is the key zone where the 365-day moving average overlaps recent lows. If it can’t close below on volume, scaling in on the left side is logical, but stop loss must be set below 79,000; if broken, accept it and don’t hold on. The confirmation signal upward is a volume-backed close above 80,700, which would indicate the short-term bearish structure is broken.
$ETH: 2,300 is the referee line. Holding it means the supply squeeze story continues; closing below means looking down to 2,280 or even 2,200–2,250. Don’t rush to catch falling knives with "faith." The first decent confirmation upward is a volume-backed close back above 2,400; before that, grinding is more likely than flying.
Finally, a frank word.
The hardest thing about this position is not the unclear direction, but that both sides make sense. ETFs are running, whales are buying; macro is hawkish, volatility is compressed to the extreme; $ETH supply is tight, but marginal demand hasn’t returned. The market deliberately makes the chart a "left and right slap" to make most people hand over chips before the direction emerges.
I don’t advise you to go full long or full short. I just say: if you believe around 80,000 is a long-term cost zone, don’t handle long-term positions with short-term anxiety; if you’re trading short-term, then honestly watch 79,200 and 2,300—exit if broken, hold and wait for confirmation if it holds. What’s being ground down is people, not coins.
$BTC $ETH #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ #中东原油运输恢复，油价为何仍居高位？ Institutional funds have already started to split. Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $442.67 million this week, ending a streak of outflows, but Ethereum ETFs experienced net outflows of $224.9 million for four consecutive weeks, indicating that institutions have inconsistent pricing for risk assets. In the past 24 hours, the total network liquidation reached $523.58 million, with longs facing concentrated forced liquidations, showing that high-leverage positions remain very fragile. Justin Sun called for a return to real demand at TOKEN2049; the slogan is correct, but the market only recognizes liquidity.
While waiting at a red light, I tightened the strap on the delivery box and casually glanced at the liquidation chart. The BTC hourly-level bearish structure remains unchanged, moving averages are diverging downward, and MACD continues to weaken. There is a large accumulation of short liquidation pressure in the 82,000 to 83,000 range, and the long liquidation intensity is also relatively high in the 79,000 to 80,000 area. In the short term, there is liquidity condition for a false breakout to the upside to test resistance again, but no trend reversal signal has appeared yet.
At the current price near 80,090, it is not advisable to directly chase shorts. Light short positions can be tested on a rebound to the 81,500 to 82,000 range, with a stop loss placed above 83,300. Take profit should first target near 79,000, and if broken, then look at the 78,000 level. If volume increases and price stabilizes above 83,000, the bearish logic is invalidated.
$BTC
#Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？
@OKX星球 Brazil election surprise? Brazilian stock market falls!
$EWZ drops over 20%
The core trigger for this sharp drop in the Brazilian stock market is the reversal of the election result.
Previously, the market widely bet on the right-wing candidate Flávio Bolsonaro winning, known in the circle as the "Bolsonaro trade."
Funds were optimistic that his administration would implement fiscal austerity, privatization reforms, and strictly control government debt, and this expectation had already pushed the stock index up in advance.
But in the end, Lula reversed the outcome and won re-election, directly breaking the market's previous optimistic pricing, causing funds to collectively close positions and flee, triggering a plunge in the index.
The market fears that Lula will continue the left-wing big government approach, maintain high welfare spending, and that fiscal deficits and public debt pressures will be difficult to contain.
Brazil's public debt-to-GDP ratio has already risen, and ongoing fiscal pressure will push up long-term interest rates, suppress corporate profits and stock valuations. The market also worries about possible future tax increases and interventions in resource companies, which will significantly impact heavyweight resource stocks like Vale and Petrobras.
Coupled with external headwinds, the Fed's high interest rate expectations persist, U.S. Treasury yields remain high, emerging market foreign capital is prone to outflows, and the real exchange rate is simultaneously under pressure and depreciating, further amplifying panic.
Commodity price volatility also adds extra pressure to the Brazil stock index, which is heavily weighted in resources.
In the short term, the market will continue to trade on fiscal risks. Going forward, the focus will be on Lula's fiscal plan statements for the new term and the situation of foreign capital inflows.
Will the U.S. midterm elections also see such large fluctuations?💻Breaking down by code review: The input is detected by Onchain Lens, reporting that multiple users of Bloom Trading have had their wallet assets stolen. The suspected thief address received 9,408 $SOL, approximately $954,000, involving 49 victims, with actual losses possibly higher.
My judgment: For ordinary users, this is primarily a permission security alert and cannot be directly attributed to the chain itself. Logically, multiple victims require investigation of common interaction points, but the material does not provide the root cause, so we cannot directly "convict" the platform or a specific vulnerability. A potential bug is treating disconnection as revoking authorization, which are not the same.
If I were to revise the security process, I would separate the investigation of connection, authorization, and key risks, then handle the remaining assets according to risk to avoid fixing the wrong part. Everyone, please help review: When encountering such an event with an unclear root cause, would you first check the authorization records or migrate the assets first, and what is your reasoning?Plunged 13%, what happened?
Wall Street bet wrong!
This morning Beijing time, heavy news came from Brazil: Bolsonaro Jr., supported by Trump, lost in the second round of the presidential election, and the incumbent president Lula successfully won re-election.
European and American stock markets were closed, and the first to react was the Japanese stock market, where the Brazilian ETF plunged 13%.
Why is Lula's re-election understood as negative news by the mainstream financial circles in Europe and America?
The main reason is that Trump strongly supported Bolsonaro and his son and did not want to see Lula re-elected.
Jair Bolsonaro (Bolsonaro Jr.'s father), born in 1955, served as Brazil's president from 2018 to 2022, known as the "Brazilian Trump," with a political style, populist mobilization methods, and conservative stance similar to Trump.
Lula, who successfully won re-election, was born in 1945 and was elected president of Brazil for the fourth time. His opponent in this year's election was Bolsonaro Jr., born in 1981. Therefore, Lula's election is a major setback for Trump's Latin America strategy.
The market fears that the U.S. will impose the previously threatened 50% tariffs and initiate a Section 301 investigation, including more Brazilian exports (steel, pulp, aircraft parts, processed agricultural products) on the high tariff list.
There are important meetings in the first four days of this week, and the main forces will continue to stabilize the market. Whether there will be significant favorable policies remains to be seen. The policy bottom has appeared, but the market bottom still needs verification. The Federal Reserve has a rate meeting this week and is likely to keep interest rates unchanged.
Note: This article is for sharing opinions and information and does not constitute any investment advice. 80,000 is not a solid bottom; it's a cover-up for this round of bulls.
$BTC softened again in the Asian morning session, at 79,800, grinding at this level for the third time. $ETH directly kicked below 2300, and $SOL can't even hold above 100. Altcoins are falling harder than Bitcoin; this isn't rotation, it's bloodletting.
Most people are focused on Wednesday's Fed meeting, but what's really weighing on the market is something else: the market suddenly doesn't want to pay for the "story" anymore.
Alphabet's cloud growth of 82% is explosive, but capital expenditures soared to 205 billion, free cash flow turned negative, and the stock was still hammered after hours. The AI narrative shifted from "growth competition" to "cash flow competition," and as tech stocks' risk appetite shrinks, crypto, as a high-beta asset, is the first to be dragged down. $BTC's volume increased during earnings week—not because someone is bottom-fishing, but because someone is rotating out to escape.
Back to the Fed. October's pause is almost a sure bet, but the probability of a rate hike in December has already topped 75%. As Lao Zhang said sharply: the real knife is hidden in the wording; interest rate expectations are the Damocles sword hanging over $BTC's head.
There's a detail on the chart more painful than the price: the long-short ratio rose from 1.55 a week ago to 2.2, retail investors are adding longs, but 670 million was liquidated in 24 hours, of which 457 million were longs. The more bullish you are, the harder you get hit. The ETF side isn't peaceful either; BlackRock's IBIT saw a single-day outflow of 254 million, institutions chose to reduce rather than hold above 80,000.
Now everyone is waiting for the 79,000 level to give an answer. If it holds, it's a recovery; if not, panic selling will act before you do.
Before Wednesday, I choose to watch the show. What about you, act or wait?
$BTC $ETH $SOL #谷歌云业务增长82%，AI投入回报如何？ #本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 #现货黄金跌破4000美元关口 Google Cloud +82% YoY to $24.8B last quarter (Q2). Margin 35.6%, backlog $514B. They added more incremental revenue than Search.
CapEx $45B, FCF negative, 2026 guide still massive. Demand is real.
Q3 reports Oct 28. Another strong Cloud print keeps the AI bid alive for risk assets. CapEx scare = dip.
Positioning before or fading the print?
#AlphabetQ3CloudAndAI On the eve of the FOMC, the blood inside the market was almost drained.
Gold just broke below 4000 last Friday, hitting a low of 3975, but after a weekend, it stubbornly climbed back above 4000. Crude oil is even more interesting—Middle East export volumes have recovered to over 80% of pre-war levels, transportation is resuming, yet Brent remains stuck between $110 and $117, unable to drop. Freight rates have soared from $4 per barrel a year ago to $30 now, with Middle East routes at $35. What is this? This is called geopolitical premium not going away, just changing the way they charge you.
Both gold and crude oil pools are simultaneously being drained. Safe-haven money flows to gold, inflation money flows to crude oil, and liquidity in risk assets in the middle is being squeezed. The crypto market now faces a pool that is either stagnant or shrinking.
$BTC at 80,000 is holding up poorly.
Early session dipped and pulled back, with 15-minute level rebound volume pitifully thin. The real sting is the on-chain trump card: retail $BTC deposits on Binance doubled in 30 days from 5.5 billion to 10.75 billion, the fastest in nearly six months; meanwhile, whale inflows to exchanges dropped 36%, shrinking from 5.9 billion at the end of August to 3.8 billion. In plain terms—retail investors are queuing above 80,000 to send chips to exchanges, whales are quietly accumulating below, but their pace has clearly slowed. At the start of the month, ETFs still saw a single-day net outflow of 600 million, keeping sentiment tightly suppressed. Above 82,000, trapped positions pile up layer upon layer, without volume, pushing up is just providing liquidity for others to exit. A second dip is not a scare tactic, it’s the most common script in a zero-sum game.
$ETH at 2320 is even more exposed than BTC.
ETFs have continuously bled over 1 billion, Glamsterdam’s promised upgrade on October 26 was delayed again, and the whole network is shouting $ETH is done. Daily charts show bearish alignment, RSI stuck in the oversold zone between 34 and 40, the problem of falling without rising hasn’t changed at all. But one data point most people missed: 170,000 $ETH were withdrawn from exchanges in a single day on-chain, staking volume has reached over 43.7 million, accounting for 35% to 36% of circulating supply. More importantly, $ETH’s on-chain realized price is about $2311, and the current price of 2320 is right on this cost line. 2300 is not a technical support, it’s the bulls’ last shred of dignity. Holding it means a false sell-off; breaking below leads to 2180, and further down is a psychological vacuum zone.
The practical takeaway: before the FOMC decision lands, don’t be cannon fodder in low-volume moves.
The decision in the early hours of October 29 has an 84% to 90% probability of no change; the market consensus expects a hold, but every word in Powell’s press conference could overturn the table. The fear and greed index has dropped from greed at the start of the month to around 50, neutral to slightly cold, but far from the extreme panic “golden pit” zone. This means truly bloodied chips have not yet flooded out.
Before volume confirmation on the right side, every "bottom fishing" in low-volume oscillation is a gamble on luck, not trading. Whales are hoarding for the long term; retail is cutting losses for short pain. The tug-of-war in between is about who cracks first.
$BTC $ETH $XAU
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ #中东原油运输恢复，油价为何仍居高位？ $BTC $ETH is temporarily stable, but don't take it as a "bottom" signal: BTC holding 80,000, ETH holding 2300 is bleeding control, not a takeoff
Why call it "temporarily stable":
BTC 79.8K–80K long lower shadow support, hasn't broken the 79.2K previous low, bulls firmly defending the 80,000 level
ETH 2300 hasn't closed below daily, 2310–2330 reclaimed, short-term selling pressure exhausted but not turned bullish
Volume hasn't expanded, RSI weak (BTC ~40 / ETH ~36), this is a "bear trap rebound," not a spot market attack
ETF withdrew a total of 774 million last Thursday to Saturday, buying hasn't continuously returned, institutions dare not bet before FOMC (10.27–28)
Key levels:
BTC: support 79,800–80,000 / 79,200; resistance 81,200 → 82,400 → 85K+
ETH: support 2,315–2,330 / 2,275; resistance 2,365–2,400 / 2,425
True stabilization signal: BTC daily close above 81.2K with volume + ETH back to 2,400 + ETF net inflow
Stability means "caught after falling down stairs to catch a breath."
It's not a bull market return, it's the 80,000 defense line holding + liquidation clearing + waiting before FOMC.
A rebound reaching 81.2K is acceptable; failing to surpass 82.4K is just a fake smile. $BTC Stayed up all night watching this lousy market, the ashtray is full, and my heart is completely cold.
Rode the roller coaster until now, the fattest chunk of meat not only wasn't eaten, but even the last bit of base position in my pocket was taken out and washed clean. What's most frustrating for the mindset? Even the most resilient ETH turned from profit to loss. The defense line that was broken wasn't the price, but the breath holding on without cutting losses.
$ETH opened at an average price of 2314.89, now directly dropped to 2307.75. Floating loss -6.16U looks small, ROI -6.16% is just a needle prick, but the pain is that—it's ETH. This wave of ETH rolled down from 2430, now gasping around 2300, RSI hanging weakly between 33 and 36, after breaking the 200-day moving average at 2320, the previous low defense zone between 2280 and 2300 is the last face to save. The 1042% margin rate is indeed stable, so stable that even the qualification to stop loss seems redundant, can only watch it slowly decline. The stabilizing needle is leaking, more painful than altcoin crashes.
$DOGE is even more annoying. Bought at 0.0757199, current price 0.076391, floating profit +17.72U, ROI +17.72%. The numbers are in the red, but I can't smile at all. The highest profit of over 50U was forcibly squeezed down to just over 17U. $DOGE spot ETF had a net outflow of $538,000 last week, the largest single-week outflow since mid-August, institutions are clearly pulling back, if 0.0764 breaks again, below is a vacuum zone. The 834% margin rate barely keeps it alive, Dogecoin isn't weak itself, but no one in the market is willing to support it.
$SOL is also half-dead. Average price 99.7, current price 100.65, floating profit +14.28U, ROI +19.05%. $SOL slid down from 109, the 100 level is repeatedly tested, RSI 36 to 37, structurally both highs and lows are moving down. ETF funds had a cumulative net outflow of about $68 million in October, big players' shorts above 100 are very obvious. $SOL is now taking selling pressure on its face, the 14U profit above 100 is as thin as paper.
Do you understand the essence of this sell-off? It's not retail investors cutting losses, it's high-leverage longs being collectively taken out. On October 22, spot $BTC ETF had a single-day net outflow of $635 million, the largest since June; 89% of liquidations were longs. Although weekly $BTC spot ETF data turned positive with 301 million inflow, October still had a net outflow of 314 million, IBIT ran 500 million in two days. Institutions are withdrawing, leverage is blowing up, altcoin ETF money is flowing out too. This is not a simple shakeout, it's a double kill script of leverage cleansing and ETF retreat happening simultaneously. $ETH, as the last long faith, is even starting to lose money, indicating this round of clearing is not over yet.
I just want to ask: Did you cut losses, or are you holding on like me?
$ETH $DOGE $SOL
#BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ $BTC broke below 80,000, but the worst part isn’t the breakdown itself—it’s standing on the wrong side at this level.
Over the weekend, the low hit 79,226, turning 80,000 from a solid floor into a meat grinder. In 24 hours, over $800 million in liquidations occurred across the network, with longs making up the vast majority; more than 210,000 people were wiped out. Over $400 million in long positions evaporated within 4 hours, 94% of which were longs. This move isn’t just a simple technical breakdown—it’s a cascading liquidation caused by leverage.
But if the only word in your mind right now is “short,” I advise you to pause for three seconds.
Beneath the surface, there’s a very conflicting divergence.
ETFs are indeed bleeding. On October 22, there was a single-day outflow of 635.6 million, the harshest day since June. Over two days, a total of 774 million was withdrawn, giving back more than 70% of the 1.07 billion inflow from earlier in the week. BlackRock’s IBIT withdrew 254 million, Fidelity’s FBTC withdrew 217 million—clearly, institutional buying is pulling back.
What about retail? They’re stepping in. On Binance, retail inflows over 30 days rose from 5.5 billion to 10.75 billion, nearly doubling, hitting a six-month high.
Normally, retail buying while institutions exit would mean the crash continues. But whales aren’t cooperating. Since late August, the amount of BTC whales transferring into Binance dropped from 5.9 billion to 3.8 billion, a 36% decrease. More importantly, on-chain: wallets holding 10 to 10,000 $BTC have cumulatively increased their holdings by 85,000 to 89,000 coins since mid to late September, bringing pure whale holdings to the highest level since November 2025.
In plain terms: whales aren’t selling, but they’re not rushing to buy either. They’re waiting—for retail to hand over the bloodied chips, and for the FOMC to resolve uncertainty.
This is very different from “whales are retreating.” Reduced transfers to exchanges don’t equal selling; on-chain accumulation is the real trump card.
The 75,000 level isn’t just Peter Schiff shouting.
Peter Schiff has been calling for 75,000 for a long time, and many have laughed it off. But this time, the reason 75,000 deserves a serious look isn’t because of Schiff’s talk. Strategy (MSTR)’s average cost basis is around 75,000, and when the weekend low hit 79,000, it was only about $3,000 away from breakeven. Once this level is tested, it’s not a matter of “prediction,” it’s real chips speaking.
So 75,000 isn’t an empty short bet. It’s the next real level to watch whale activity—if they reach out again near there, that’s a zone worth serious consideration for support.
The FOMC is the real referee this week.
On October 28, there’s a 92.8% chance rates remain unchanged, so the result itself isn’t much of a surprise. But the real risk isn’t whether they hike or not—it’s the wording. If the Fed holds steady but tightens the tone for December, risk assets could be pressured again. Wintermute previously pointed out that 82,500 is a key watershed; if effectively broken, a move just above 70,000 isn’t impossible. Conversely, if the tone is dovish and core PCE doesn’t fuel inflation, combined with ETF capital inflows, the recovery above 80,000 will have a foundation.
The path of rates is ten times more important than the rate decision itself.
My stance is clear: below 80,000, no chasing shorts.
It’s not that you can’t be bearish, but the risk-reward of chasing shorts here is painfully bad. The bearish logic—ETF outflows, liquidation cascades, macro pressure—has already been mostly priced in. Chasing shorts near 79,000 targets a short-term range of 78,000 to 78,600 below, while above could be a quick rebound to 81,000 triggered by Fed wording or a whale buy order. The odds aren’t right.
I’m waiting for only two signals:
A decisive volume-backed break below 79,200 confirming short-term bears, then watching 78,000–78,600, with 75,000 only in extreme scenarios.
Or a volume-backed recovery above and hold at 81,000, invalidating the breakdown, easing liquidation pressure, then considering the right side.
Until either happens, the best position is patience, not direction.
The breakdown is real. But when sentiment is at its peak, that’s often when the market most wants you to stand on the wrong side.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #ETF与巨鲸资金分化，BTC能否守住8万美元？ #美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？ Term Structure Radar
The first-level positive spread for $BTC corresponds to a very small scale. The buy near sell far quote spread is +0.95%, with the first-level pair scale about $802; at a scale of 10,000, this level only covers about 8%. Capacity limit set.
The first-level positive spread for $ETH corresponds to a very small scale. The buy near sell far quote spread is +0.68%, with the first-level pair scale about $992; at a scale of 10,000, this level only covers about 10%. Small orders can probe, but large volume must look at deeper levels.
$SOL marked spread is positive, but the buy near sell far first-level quote is inverted. Near-month annualized +7.89%, far-month annualized +0.45%, near end is more expensive; marked near-far spread +0.1%, buy near sell far first-level quote spread -1.11%. Positive mark, negative first-level.India's largest telecom company is going public, but its stock is already being sold on-chain in advance.
Jio Platforms is the digital telecom business under Reliance Group, with 533 million users as of the end of June. The IPO subscription ended on October 23, oversubscribed by 22.19 times, with an issue price between 1065 and 1119 rupees, and it was listed on October 28.
On the same day, Hyperliquid launched JIO's pre-IPO perpetual contracts, deployed via HIP-3, offering 24/7 trading, up to 5x leverage, and isolated margin. The contract is pegged to the USD price of 1 share of Jio Platforms, with an initial reference price of $13.
The data after launch is solid: 24-hour trading volume is about $908,200, open interest nominal value about $2,278,200, and the mark price is $12.963.
Using the $12.963 mark price and the 94.9432 exchange rate to convert, the implied stock price is about 1231 rupees, roughly 10% higher than the upper limit of the issue price. The market has already priced in some of the expected listing gains.
Two variables to watch: the stock price and the rupee exchange rate will both affect the quote; if the rupee depreciates further, the USD price will move accordingly. The contract also has a maximum 60-day listing grace period; if there is a serious delay, it may trigger alternative settlement.
So this is not risk-free arbitrage; essentially, it is a bet on the sentiment at the opening on October 28. With 5x leverage, a 10% premium retraction is enough to wipe out half the margin.76% of the funds are betting that SanDisk will exceed expectations, and this number alone is worth pausing to take a look at. Do you think the market is trading on performance now, or on the "expectation gap"? After the market close on October 29 Eastern Time, SanDisk will release its earnings report, and over 70% of the funds in the forecast market are on the side of "exceeding expectations." The surface logic is almost flawless: AI data center demand is still expanding, NAND prices are rising, and the company’s own revenue guidance is $10.3 billion to $10.8 billion. It sounds like a strong hand, right? But I feel a bit uneasy watching this 76%. Such a high betting ratio means good news has already been priced in, leaving only one suspense—whether the guidance for the next quarter can continue to impress. The market no longer cares how much you sold last quarter; it only wants to know if the growth curve will turn here. Western Digital was a recent case study: earnings beat, guidance was not bad, yet the stock price still fell. As long as SanDisk’s guidance hints at profit margin peaking or NAND price increases slowing, this 76% will instantly turn from buying power into selling pressure. What I care more about is its cross-market transmission with crypto. Semiconductors are the global tech stock risk thermometer; this earnings report will directly affect our sentiment here. The bullish path is: earnings exceed expectations, stock price withstands selling pressure and rises, tech sector confidence stabilizes, BTC can breathe easier, risk appetite warms up, and altcoins get some breathing room. The bearish risk is more hidden—if earnings are good but the stock price is pressed down on the spot, that means HuThe ripple effect of AI credit cuts hit stock prices first: CoreWeave down over 10% in a week, Meta down over 9%
In the same week Elon Musk warned that new cloud providers couldn't get loans, the stock prices had already validated half of that for him. Last week, CoreWeave dropped over 10%, Meta fell over 9%, making AI trading a hard-hit sector. The chip index slightly rebounded, with SK Hynix US shares up over 4%, but Western Digital, despite good earnings, still fell 3%, indicating the market doesn't price based on earnings quality but rather on "how much the AI narrative is worth."
This chain of transmission is very clear: the bond market closes first, stock prices reprice next, and finally come orders and earnings. Musk's phrase "few will survive" is now understood by the market as: first, the valuation drops, then we see who can really survive.
The same applies to the crypto world: AI concept coins and computing power narratives now need to answer not "how big the story is," but "whether cash flow can cover debt." Companies that can't get loans and projects that can't issue tokens often end up the same way.
Regarding this AI stock pullback, do you think it's a shakeout or the start of a valuation system re-evaluation?
#SpaceX raises $40 billion, Musk warns of AI cloud credit cuts
$BTC📉 $BTC Capital Flow Alert: Short-term Bull Trap, Main Force Retreating?
Latest contract data shows a typical "short-term long, long-term short" divergence signal in the BTC market:
1. Short-term illusion: Slight net capital inflow at 5-minute to 1-hour levels (+10 million to 36 million), indicating quant or short-term traders are speculating on oversold rebounds.
2. Long-term reality: Significant net outflows across all periods over 2 hours! Over 2 billion outflow in 7 days, nearly 8.3 billion outflow in 30 days. This indicates that medium- to long-term main players are substantially reducing positions during the rebound.
3. Market sentiment: ETF capital inflows and outflows fluctuate sharply, contract open interest declines, indicating the market is "deleveraging." Retail investors are entering to buy the dip, while whales are contracting their battle lines #This week's announcement of the October FOMC interest rate decision? Is it the key to determining $BTC's direction?
It is an important catalyst, but not the only deciding factor. This FOMC is more likely to act as a "short-term volatility trigger" rather than the sole variable determining BTC's medium- to long-term direction.
Why is it called "key" but not "only"?
· The key lies in the expectation gap: The market has largely priced in "no change in October" (probability about 83%-90%). If the result meets expectations, BTC's reaction may be muted; the real risk lies in an unexpected rate hike or an extremely hawkish statement, which could instantly tighten liquidity expectations and suppress BTC.
· The real anchor lies elsewhere: Some analyses point out that compared to the Fed's overnight rate, the 30-year US Treasury yield may have a more direct suppressive effect on BTC. Currently, this yield hovers around a high of 5.6%, raising the risk-free return requirement, which is the "return hurdle" BTC finds harder to overcome.
· Internal factors are equally critical: BTC has recently been pressured due to concerns over the AI bubble, Middle East geopolitical risks, and ETF fund outflows, once falling below $80,000. Even if the FOMC dovetails, if these internal negatives are not digested, the rebound will be limited.
Conclusion: The FOMC is the biggest source of uncertainty this week (especially a hawkish surprise), but whether BTC can truly strengthen depends more on whether long-term US Treasury yields fall back and whether the internal capital situation in the crypto market stabilizes.After $HYPE recovered losses over the weekend, today it seems more like it's consolidating around 75–77, with a bullish bias seeing it as digestion before the rate decision, not a bearish reversal.
24h change is about −0.85%, with a high/low around 77.6/75.0, showing slightly more resilience compared to ETH. On-chain: HYPE perpetual daily nominal is about 280 million U, OI about 1.58 billion U; protocol perpetuals total about 3.84 billion, TVL about 8.19 billion. Buybacks have not stopped—Aid Fund bought about 13,000 tokens/~996,000 U on 10/25, holding about 48.27 million tokens; October revenue so far is about 53.49 million, with daily pace still aiming for the 60 million threshold.
Before the FOMC, will you wait for it to break above 80, or continue consolidating between 75–78? Feel free to share your thoughts.
$HYPE
Just personal observation, not investment advice. #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $HYPE The Ethereum Foundation still chooses the most trafficked selling method: openly selling during market pullbacks 🫠
Its associated address 0x5CB…22059 sold 2,785 ETH via Cowswap two hours ago, worth 6.42 million USD; this is another sell-off by the foundation's associated entity following the $ETH deposit on 10.12, when the coin price was still $2534, now down nearly 9%
Wallet address 0x5CBC6299faB3320E7758ac97fd4CA45E5B722059"Floating loss of 22.78 million but still calm? The big short's trump card is 'holding on' (￣▽￣)"
This whale has cumulatively earned over $180 million, with another $25.22 million gained in the last 24 hours; currently, the combined floating loss on BTC, ETH, and SOL short positions is 22.78 million USD, approximately 12.06 million, 4.76 million, and 5.95 million respectively. Despite facing headwinds, the real focus is on position size.
He is short 2,637 BTC, nominal $210 million, 5x leverage, average price 76,327; short 106,400 ETH, nominal $250 million, 5x leverage, average price 2,322; short 720,000 SOL, nominal $73.87 million, 7x leverage, average price 94.3. Total nominal value is $530 million, a top-tier short hasn't fled (・ω・)ノ
The key lies in the liquidation price: BTC around 140,000, ETH 3,838, SOL 316, still far from current prices, making it hard for short-term volatility to force him out. Low leverage buys room, floating loss buys time; he is betting on 'time for price,' not immediate profit or loss (๑•̀ㅂ•́)و✧
So although there are whale short positions pressuring from above, the real risk isn't the current floating loss but whether prices will continue pushing toward liquidation zones. Whether to follow or not, don't just focus on profit and loss numbers, first look at position management. Copying trades is fine, but first copy risk control (￣▽￣)
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 When I show newcomers this kind of news, I first ask: Did you buy fund shares, or a “coin” that has an independent price? The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission has approved the world’s first tokenized funds offered to the public to be traded on licensed virtual asset trading platforms in the secondary market. Two existing recognized tokenized money market funds have started 24/7 trading today.
My judgment is that this is a substantial progress in the trading method for compliant funds, but it should not be directly interpreted as a positive for the entire token market. What changes is how shares are transferred, not that the underlying assets suddenly generate more returns.
📌 Using these two funds to explain a basic concept: subscription and redemption are entering or exiting according to fund rules; secondary market trading is the transfer of shares between investors. If the buyer’s price is higher than the fund’s net asset value, the extra amount paid is a premium. This is a mechanism example and does not mean these two funds have already shown a premium.
A common misconception among newcomers is equating “money market funds” with “transaction prices that do not fluctuate.” The underlying returns and purchase price are two different things; 24/7 trading increases operation time but does not change the fund’s asset nature. Also, the SFC said it monitors trading and will consider expanding the scope in due course, not that all products have been approved.
What else don’t you understand: why might the on-exchange trading price of these tokenized funds differ from the fund’s net asset value? Leave a comment, and I’ll continue to explain.#France's 10-year government bond yield surpasses US bonds for the first time since 2013 What does this mean? It means lending money to France now yields higher interest than lending to the US, which is the first time since 2013. On October 22, France's 10-year government bond yield surged directly to 5.14%, hitting a new high since 2002. The key point is not just that it rose, but that it actually surpassed the US Treasury bonds of the same maturity for the first time! The yield spread between French and German government bonds also widened to 175 basis points, a 15-year high. Although Moody's maintained its rating, the outlook remains "negative." Let me translate the plain meaning behind this: Previously, everyone thought France was a solid developed country, so lending to it was very safe. Now? The market thinks France's fiscal deficit is too severe, budget negotiations have become a mess, and politics are unstable. People fear France might not be able to repay or that the money might lose value, so they demand higher interest to lend to it. Think about it, even the credit of core European countries is being questioned like this, which is definitely a huge landmine for traditional financial markets. My personal view: This is a typical sign of a "sovereign credit crisis." The big money from Wall Street and Europe is the most timid; at the slightest sign of trouble, they immediately run away. They sell off French government bonds and switch to buying US and German bonds for safety. What is this called? This is a renewed tightening of global liquidity. Now, with the macro environment already hanging on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, if the European bond market stirs up more trouble, the high interest rates will bring financingFrom 1950 to 2022, within one year after midterm elections, the S&P 500 has always risen. According to the analogy of carving a mark on a boat to find a sword, after the election on November 3rd this time, the US stock market index is still very likely to rise.
But this doesn't mean it will keep rising continuously; there will be declines in between, and it will eventually rise back, so overall it counts as an increase. If the US stock market continues to rise, Bitcoin will also follow. Could the 57,800 this year really be the historical bottom?
I can't agree with that. At least for Bitcoin at 80,000, I can't pull the trigger. Doubling to 160,000 would be the top, and halving to 40,000 is also possible. With this kind of risk-reward ratio and odds, I'll stay calm and take it step by step, no rush.To be honest, I used to easily mishear "regulatory approval" as "market is coming," with only the fear of missing out in my mind. Later, I realized that a step forward in regulation doesn't mean my position should rush forward.
The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission has approved the world's first tokenized funds offered to the public to conduct secondary trading on licensed virtual asset trading platforms. Two existing recognized tokenized money market funds are now available for 24/7 trading starting today.
I see this as a positive for product channels, not a reason to add leverage on contracts. The first batch mainly consists of money market funds, which cannot be directly pushed as overall demand growth for the entire crypto space; 24/7 trading extends trading hours, which can easily make office workers mistake "always tradable" for "always an opportunity." This atmosphere feels somewhat familiar.
I now stick to two rules: don't use regulatory news as a switch to add leverage; first understand the underlying assets and trading rules before considering participation. Have you ever misread "approval" as a market signal? Would you be willing to share a rule to avoid chasing news?* Confirmed: SK Hynix will hold its Q3 earnings conference call on October 28 (Wednesday) at 9 AM Korea time. The press release will be issued before 9 AM, along with the announcement of expanded shareholder return measures.
* Not confirmed: Korean media reports suggest the company may distribute a special dividend of about 16 trillion KRW, possibly funded by proceeds from the sale/disposal of its Kioxia investment. The company has only confirmed that it is "evaluating multiple shareholder return options" without confirming any amount or form.
* Existing plan: SK Hynix previously announced a buyback and cancellation of about 40 trillion KRW in treasury shares and plans to allocate over 50% of cumulative free cash flow from 2025 to 2027 for dividends, buybacks, or cancellations.
Market impact interpretation:
* If the official plan approaches "16 trillion KRW special dividend + existing buyback and cancellation," it would be clearly bullish for SK Hynix in the short term and help stabilize Korean semiconductor valuations.
* If it only reiterates the existing 40 trillion KRW plan without additional cash returns, since the market has already anticipated this, it may result in a "buy the rumor, sell the news" scenario.
* For NVDA, TSMC, and SOXL, what really matters are HBM shipments, pricing, HBM4 progress, 2027 order visibility, and capital expenditures in the earnings report; shareholder returns mainly support SK Hynix’s stock price and cannot alone prove a renewed acceleration in AI demand. Therefore, SK Hynix’s strength against the trend today partly reflects bets on the October 28 shareholder return announcement $ZEC liquidity has shown marginal improvement, but signals are mixed and do not yet indicate a trend reversal.
ETF stop the bleeding: Last week saw a net inflow of $41.1 million, ending three consecutive weeks of outflows, but only recovering about 29% of the previous $143 million loss. ETFs currently hold about 3.4% of ZEC's supply.
On-chain divergence: A whale withdrew coins to accumulate (814.7 ZEC withdrawn on October 20, approximately $1.03 million), but longs on the derivatives side are clearly under pressure, with about $10.03 million in long liquidations over 24 hours compared to only $3.99 million in shorts.
Key levels: Currently around $1,190, with support between $1,175–$1,100 and resistance at $1,214 (20-day moving average). The next catalyst is the NU7 upgrade around November 5.
Summary: Institutional funds are replenishing, leveraged longs are being liquidated, and ZEC is in a "stop-the-bleeding observation period," not a confirmed reversal phase.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #三星Q3利润预增近8倍，完整财报即将揭晓 Samsung's preliminary Q3 results are quite explosive: operating profit of 107.4 trillion KRW (about $80.2 billion), a year-on-year surge of 782.5%, breaking the 100 trillion KRW mark in a single quarter for the first time; revenue of 195 trillion KRW, up 126.6% year-on-year. However, revenue was slightly below expectations, and within this 107 trillion profit, the semiconductor division is expected to contribute 107 trillion, while the mobile and consumer electronics divisions each lost about 0.6 trillion KRW.
The core driver is memory: HBM4 shipments in the quarter increased nearly 50% quarter-on-quarter, with HBM4 sales expected to account for over 50% of total HBM sales starting Q3; DRAM and NAND prices continued to rise quarter-on-quarter, with HBM4's average price expected to increase 100%–150% year-on-year next year. Samsung has also completed HBM4 deliveries to Nvidia's Vera Rubin platform, gaining a technological lead during the window period.
But note two divergences: while the earnings report is explosive, Samsung's stock price has fallen 36% from its June peak, as the market believes the high profits have already been priced in, and what investors are really waiting for is evidence of how long the favorable conditions can last. Additionally, losses in the mobile business and exchange losses caused by the won's appreciation partially offset the quality of the profits.
The key points of the full earnings report on October 29 are not the profit figures themselves, but rather: the supply and demand outlook for 2027, how much new LTA long-term agreements have been added, and whether shareholder return plans will be increased. These three factors will determine whether the stock price can climb out of the "good news fully priced in" pit.$BTC has broken 80,000, short-term bearish, but don't chase shorts.
The market has changed
BTC fell below 80,000 over the weekend, hitting a low of 79,226 USD, with a rebound blocked at 80,900-81,000. 80,000 has turned from support into resistance.
Suppressing factors
· ETF outflows: On October 22, a single-day outflow of 635.6 million, totaling 774 million over two days, offsetting over 70% of early-week inflows
· Retail buyers stepping in, whales retreating: Net inflow from retail to exchanges doubled from 5.5 billion to 10.75 billion, while whales dropped from 5.9 billion to 3.8 billion
Avoid being overly bearish
Whales have not concentrated their selling; exchange inflows are decreasing, not increasing. Peter Schiff's target of 75,000 is the next level to watch, which is also where whale accumulation might resume.
Key price levels
Direction Trigger Target
Continue downtrend Stay below 79,200 78,000-78,600, extreme case 75,000
Recovery rebound Reclaim and hold above 81,000 Relieve liquidation pressure, 82,000 marks reversal
Trading strategy
Do not chase shorts below 80,000. The bearish scenario is partially priced in; chasing shorts near 79,000 has poor risk-reward. Wait for a volume break below 79,200 to confirm short-term bearishness, or reclaim 81,000 to invalidate the breakdown. Around 75,000 is the level to consider scaling in.
In short: The breakdown happened, but don't take the wrong side when emotions are at their peak.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 I imagined a price interview: $100 gets you a suit, but $99.96 means you have to explain a gap in your work history. Even though it's just a few cents difference, the treatment feels like a different person 😂
Hyperliquid perpetual public market shows $SOL just dropped below $100, currently at $99.96, down 2.37% in 24 hours, with a trading volume of about $102 million and an open interest of about $551 million. What I care more about is the contrast: the price is going down, but the funding rate is still positive, at 0.0013% per hour, which annualizes to about 11%. This means longs are still paying holding costs, so "price drop" doesn't directly equal "longs have exited"; plus, this is data from a single platform and can't be used to represent the entire market.
My judgment: compared to the integer break, the subsequent changes in funding rate and open interest carry more information. Would you choose to watch the funding rate or the open interest? In this interview, do you check the payroll or the roster first? Looking at SK Hynix's latest earnings report, I want to hear more about the collaboration behind HBM4.
Hynix previously announced cooperation with TSMC to develop HBM4, involving the use of advanced logic process technology to manufacture the base wafers. This change is worth pondering: as HBM moves forward, competition increasingly depends on the coordination between memory, logic process, and customer systems.
For Hynix, this is an opportunity. If the product is more deeply involved in customer design, procurement won't just be about price comparison. Customers wanting to switch suppliers also need to consider the costs of re-verification and adaptation. This kind of business interests me more than simply waiting for storage prices to rise.
But the deeper the cooperation, the more delivery tests coordination ability. Having memory ready doesn't mean the logic wafers, packaging, and the entire system can all be ready simultaneously. If any link slows down, the final revenue recognition may also be delayed.
Therefore, the phrase "strong demand" in the earnings report is no longer enough to excite me. I want to know how customer projects are progressing, whether delivery arrangements are clear, and if the increased technical content has resulted in better profits.
HBM4 is worth looking forward to. However, the market has already paid a lot for expectations, so next, the project progress and business results should speak for themselves.
#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ The coming week could be a stress test for the global markets!
Oil prices, inflation, Federal Reserve policy, employment data, plus the Middle East situation — multiple risk factors are about to converge.
Key dates to watch:
Monday: U.S. markets reopen; the Iran situation may impact oil prices and risk appetite.
Tuesday: U.S. employment, housing, and consumer confidence data.
Wednesday: Federal Reserve interest rate decision and speech by Kevin Walsh. Even if rates don’t rise, any hint of tighter future policy could pressure the market.
Thursday: PCE inflation and GDP data. Inflation is forecast to rise to 3.6%. If oil prices push inflation higher, the market may reassess the prospects for rate cuts.
Friday: Japan’s unemployment rate and U.S. wage inflation data.
Meanwhile, with the U.S. midterm elections approaching, market sentiment may become even more sensitive.
The truly dangerous combination is: rising oil prices, rebounding inflation, and the Fed unable to ease policy.
If this scenario unfolds, stocks, gold, and crypto assets could all come under pressure, and $BTC will hardly be immune.
Of course, volatility doesn’t necessarily mean a crash. The key is to manage risk in advance, not just react after the market moves.First consider the worst-case scenario: if there is 24/7 trading but a lack of counterparties, you may only be able to exit at a discount when you urgently need cash. The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission has approved the first batch of public tokenized funds to conduct secondary trading on licensed virtual asset platforms. Two recognized money market funds have started 24/7 trading today.
I see this as progress in channels, not the disappearance of risk. ⚠️ I will monitor liquidity and the deviation of transaction prices from net asset value: being able to place orders at any time does not mean transactions can be executed at reasonable prices. Ordinary people should first factor in the loss from discounted exits within their tolerance range. This round of BTC dropped from 84,875 to around 79,000. On the surface, it looks like a technical breakdown, but the real drivers of the decline are the tightening macro environment and the absence of institutional buying. My judgment going forward is cautious: as long as macro pressure does not ease and ETF funds do not resume sustained net inflows, the sustainability of any rebound is questionable, so I am not in a hurry to call the bottom.
The core reasons for this decline:
1. High oil prices reignite inflation concerns, squeezing the space for risk assets
The repeated turmoil in the Middle East has kept crude oil prices high, with Brent crude once rising to around $102, directly disturbing market expectations for easing inflation. High oil prices mean the Federal Reserve has little room to maneuver on rate cuts, and even rate hike expectations remain in flux. For high beta risk assets like BTC, the marginal tightening of macro liquidity expectations itself is a valuation pressure.
2. U.S. Treasury yields remain high, funds flow to interest-bearing assets
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield stays above 5%, even touching 5.36% at one point. When risk-free assets can offer attractive fixed income, institutional funds have a real incentive to withdraw from more volatile assets. BTC’s "digital gold" narrative temporarily yields to liquidity considerations in a high interest rate environment, as evidenced by ETF fund flows.
In short, the root cause of this decline lies in macro factors, not crypto itself. Without easing macro pressure, a rebound is just a rebound, not a reversal. Wait for signals, don’t guess the bottom. I misjudged HYPE this time; the problem wasn't the fundamentals but the token distribution and position sizing.
When revenue hit a new high in September, I was still focused on fundamentals, overlooking another fact: the team, Multicoin, and whales had already started moving tokens out.
Good revenue doesn't necessarily mean the token price will rise. If some keep selling and the buy side can't absorb it, the price will still fall.
When it dropped below $77, my stop-loss condition had actually been triggered. I should have exited then instead of finding excuses while it kept falling, thinking the fundamentals were good and the price would eventually recover.
The mistake in this trade was setting the rules in advance but failing to follow them.
On the bright side, $HYPE's revenue hasn't returned to the low levels of April; at least from a fundamental perspective, the long-term logic isn't completely broken yet.
Moving forward, I prefer to wait for the token distribution to gradually digest and see if there's an opportunity when the price returns near the MA200.
Compared to when it was $90, it is indeed worth reassessing the risk-reward ratio now, but that doesn't mean you should buy just because it dropped to the moving average.
Fundamentals determine why you are optimistic, token distribution determines when it will rise, and position sizing determines if you can hold on until the end.
The biggest lesson this time wasn't that I was wrong about the direction, but that I refused to admit it when I was wrong. $HYPE Bitcoin Penetration Rate and Price Trend Analysis
Penetration rate is already high: The biggest impact on Bitcoin's price is that the penetration rate is already quite high.
Each bull market peak's increase is less impressive than the previous one.
Early bull market peaks rose tenfold each time: $20,000 in 2017, over $60,000 in the previous round, and over $100,000 this round.
Whether the next round can reach $200,000 is uncertain.
Bitcoin is gradually becoming like gold: The increased penetration rate makes Bitcoin similar to gold. Volatility decreases, and gains narrow.
Its positioning is digital gold, no need for flashy technology. $ETH has been hovering around 2,300 all morning
From 9 to 11 o'clock, three consecutive hourly candles tested 2,291-2,298, all were supported, now bouncing up to 2,319. But each high is lower than the last: 2,364 at midnight, 2,351 at 6 AM, 2,341 at 7 AM, now 2,320.
Honestly, the short position from last night was stopped out at midnight, this time the stop loss is set above that high.
Funding rate is slightly positive (about +0.005%), open interest at 627,000 ETH hasn't dropped much, bulls are still holding. With the Fed meetings on Tuesday and Wednesday, I don't think there's big money rushing to buy the rebound.
Key levels:
· 2,338-2,345: area where this morning's rebound failed to break through
· 2,366: above the midnight high
· 2,296: three tests of the morning bottom
· 2,282: near the three-day low
My plan:
· Direction: short on rebound
· Entry: 2,338-2,345
· Stop loss: 2,366
· Target 1: 2,296
· Target 2: 2,282
If it doesn't bounce into the entry zone, no chase; if it breaks below 2,290, no chase either. If the hourly candle closes above 2,366 with volume, admit the mistake and wait.
Do you think 2,300 can hold?
Just my personal view, not investment advice, DYOR
#ETH #ContractStrategy #FedMeeting