Orbit Post Sitemap
#苹果新CEO迎来iPhone18首份成绩单
A 3.1% growth, but the details are a bit subtle.
Ternus's first earnings report after taking over will be released early tomorrow morning. The global sales of the iPhone 18 Pro series in the first three weeks increased by only 3.1% year-over-year. Counterpoint's own assessment is "mixed feelings." Excluding the Chinese market's +29%, global growth is basically flat; both the US and Japan markets declined, and the reason is straightforward — prices went up, and consumers feel the upgrade isn't worth the price difference.
What’s more troublesome is the product rhythm: the standard iPhone 18 model is delayed until spring 2027, so this year the volume relies entirely on the high-end models, while rising memory costs are squeezing gross margins, which may drop from last quarter's 50.1% to 47%-48%. Ternus comes from a hardware engineering background, so the first report really needs to answer not "how many were sold," but "can the price increase protect profits." 
A 3.1% growth isn’t bad for Apple, but it heavily depends on a single market, and the quality of that growth doesn’t hold up under close scrutiny. At tomorrow’s conference call, how the new CEO explains this structure will be far more important than the 3.1% itself.$FIL
Filecoin faces a challenge that goes beyond building decentralized storage capacity: converting available capacity into consistent paid demand. Its 2026 network strategy explicitly prioritizes paid on-chain storage deals and customers with persistent data requirements, including AI-related workloads. This is an important transition, because unused storage capacity alone cannot establish a sustainable business model. ORDI (Audi): A Narrative Asset in Decline
Current price about $3.4, market cap $72 million, down 96% from the all-time high of $95 in 2024.
It is the first BRC-20 token on Bitcoin, with 21 million fully circulating, no unlocking, no inflation—its supply structure is one of the cleanest in the entire market. This is also its only solid advantage.
But the problems are tougher:
The sector is collapsing. Daily new inscriptions have dropped from the 2024 peak of 450,000 to 20,000 now, shrinking 92%. In 2026, Hiro will stop the BRC-20 API, Magic Eden will withdraw, Ord.io will shut down, Phantom will no longer support it—the infrastructure is collectively retreating.
No value capture. No staking, no fee sharing, no governance protocol. The only hope for holding it is that the next buyer pays a higher price. The chips are extremely concentrated. Exchanges hold 60%, Binance alone about 42%, retail investors only 6.8%.
It rebounded three times in 2026: surged to $10.7 in April, returned to $5 in September, all were pushed back. Each time lower, each time with less volume.
Its essence is a leveraged Bitcoin sentiment proxy—contract positions are 60%–74% of market cap, almost all price driving is from leveraged funds. When BTC rises, it doubles; when BTC falls, it halves. $BTC $ORDI $AVAX
Avalanche's customizable Layer-1 architecture gives developers room to build networks around specific application requirements rather than forcing every project into one shared environment. That flexibility could be valuable for gaming, financial applications and enterprise deployments. The challenge is ecosystem fragmentation: launching more individual networks does not automatically create deeper liquidity or stronger demand for AVAX. My judgment: What everyone fears about AMD's earnings report is not AMD itself, but the shock Intel just caused.
On Friday, Intel said PC weakness might drag into the first half of next year, and AMD dropped 10.9% in one day. But PCs account for more than half of Intel's revenue, while less than a quarter for AMD, so it feels like AMD got caught in the crossfire.
AMD's own guidance is revenue around 13 billion, to be released at 6 AM Beijing time on Wednesday. The perpetual price is now around 516, with Friday's low at 493.6 as the lower boundary; if it breaks below that, I won't touch it. The upper boundary is 565, the high of Tuesday's candle; I'll reconsider if it returns there.
Do you think Wednesday morning will be a "wrongful sell-off rebound" or "good news fully priced in"?
$AMD $NVDA
Personal opinion, not investment advice
#USStocks #Earnings #AMD$UNI
Uniswap's evolution is creating an interesting shift in its economic model. Protocol fees are no longer just a theoretical governance discussion: fee collection and UNI-burning mechanisms are now part of its operating framework. The bigger test is whether sustained trading activity can generate meaningful economic value without weakening liquidity-provider incentives. #AMD财报前瞻：HeliosAI系统商业化进展 In this earnings window, the deployment and realization of the Helios rack-level AI system is the core contradiction anchor point for AMD's market pricing. Helios relies on a full-stack integrated architecture, integrating the MI455X accelerator card, sixth-generation EPYC processors, high-speed interconnects, and the ROCm open-source software stack, building a standardized computing power base for large model training and Agent inference workloads. It enters the closed computing power track with an open ecosystem differentiation. The key observation indicators focus on rack delivery scale, targeted customer conversion, single rack TCO, and software ecosystem adaptation rate.
From the market pricing perspective, the stock price has already partially priced in expectations of Helios and collaborations with leading customers such as Microsoft, Anthropic, and Meta. The focus of capital competition is no longer on product launches but on the transition rhythm from POC pilots to mass delivery. There is a short-term risk of two-way competition: if the earnings report discloses rack shipments and order visibility better than guidance, it will drive an upward revision of data center business gross margin, further boosting valuation; conversely, if capacity ramp-up lags expectations and ROCm ecosystem adaptation progress is delayed, the previous premium will quickly be given back, triggering a valuation sell-off.Let's take another look at the Coinbase premium index👀
$BTC has rebounded quite a bit from the lows in the past two days, but the Coinbase premium is still all red😑
Currently, the premium rate is -0.16%, having been in negative premium for 40 consecutive days, with the annual percentile dropping to 1.1%
This data is honestly a bit ugly……
What’s more noteworthy is that in the past two days, BTC price has risen somewhat, but the premium has not shown any obvious recovery
The price can rebound, but the relative buying on the US spot market remains weak; this round of rally has yet to see clear support from US funds
Personally, I remain cautious about the current rebound:
After all, having gone through a round of decline earlier, to achieve a sustained upward trend again, there still needs to be enough capital to take over
I will continue to monitor whether the premium can sustain recovery, especially the performance after the US stock market opens
The price can rise first, but if the funds don’t follow, I always feel this rebound is somewhat lacking
#BTC持续承压，资金与市场走势出现分歧 The market has bounced back, but everyone should note, the bears still dominate!
Figure 1 shows the long and short positions across the entire market; the major coins $BTC $ETH $SOL are all dominated by bears. The big traders on hyperliquid are even more extreme, with 80% being bears (Figure 2).
BTC is grinding at the 78,000 whole number level; above, the 80,500–82,000 range is a resistance zone pressed down by the 20-day moving average, and below, 76,000 overlaps with the 200-day moving average, which is the bulls' last stand.
BTC's RSI has dropped to around 36, which is not oversold but indicates no buyers.
ETH is the strongest among the three today, climbing from 2,250 back up to 2,300, leading the rally. But the foundation is still fractured: spot ETF funds retreated 156 million the day before yesterday, while on-chain activity is strengthening but institutions are withdrawing.
This divergence of strong on-chain activity and weak ETF for ETH, if it can't close above 2,300, I consider it a bull trap.
SOL is the dullest today, oscillating around 95, RSI at 30.5 is close to oversold but no funds are coming in to catch it. SOL has strong fundamentals but was oversold mistakenly; however, it is locked down short-term by macro factors. When risk appetite returns, it should lead; for now, it can be accumulated at low levels.
The previous low at 92.3 is a strong support; as long as it holds above 90, there is not much problem. Oversold conditions could trigger a technical rebound above 100 (7-day moving average) at any time. First, let me state my conclusion: whether from the specific financial report data or the current market sentiment, now is not a good time to bottom-fish. —————————————————— Let's first look at the specifics of the financial report. This sharp drop in $INTC is not because the financial report looks bad, but because the guidance for the next quarter is far below market expectations. Simply put, the company made a lot of money this quarter, but said it might not make much next quarter. Hearing this from the company, everyone lost confidence in the future and collectively sold off, causing Intel's stock price to plummet. We won't consider why the guidance for next quarter is so low; what we need to consider is whether the current guidance is still high. Personally, I think it is somewhat high. Generally speaking, when a child says there might be some problems, it means there are definitely big problems; otherwise, the child wouldn't say that. In other words, the guidance Intel gave now is very likely already optimistic. If that's the case, it's better not to bottom-fish for the time being. This is from the perspective of the financial report. —————————————————— Now let's look from the data perspective. This is $INTC's contract data, and we can see that during the sharp drop after the financial report was released, a lot of capital flowed into going long. If I were the market maker, I definitely wouldn't push the price up under these circumstances; I would grind it out at this level to clear out some of these long positions. So I think, shortEarly access, still limited by jurisdiction. ⚡ At this point, I'll hit the brakes first. Polygon expands OMS, allowing qualified foreign enterprises to complete verification and connect Solana stablecoins to the U.S. banking system, involving a stablecoin market size of $15 billion.
My judgment is that this is more of a short-term emotional catalyst rather than a signal of immediate capital inflow. There are entry barriers, and market size does not equal new traffic. The headline easily sparks imagination, but there is still a gap between opening the service and actual enterprise usage. I care more about whether the market can sustain support after the news stimulus.
According to my short-term rhythm, if the price surges after the news but fails to hold, I won’t chase that spike; if it pulls back but support remains, then I consider entering, and if support fails, I exit. This is my conditional reasoning, not a statement that the market has already moved. When encountering such "bank access but with restrictions" news, do you watch the initial wave of volatility or wait for actual usage data?BTC has reclaimed 78,000, ETH barely holds at 2,280, while NEAR has dropped over 6%. Prices are starting to recover, but the signals from the derivatives market are far less optimistic.
Just reviewed the capital data and found a key divergence: mainstream coins are trying to stabilize, but NEAR is still experiencing leveraged fund withdrawals.
$BTC is around $78,003. Recent trading days saw a net outflow of $643 million from spot ETFs, with $234 million outflow from IBIT. The inflows from the previous four consecutive days were offset by a single day of outflow. 77,000 is the support line below, and 78,500 is the short-term level that needs to be broken.
$ETH is around $2,285. Spot ETFs have had outflows for five consecutive trading days, totaling about $431 million, yet the price remains relatively resilient. The area near 2,250 is worth watching; if it breaks, 2,200 may be tested again; the upside target remains 2,300.
$NEAR is around $4.11, down 6.61% in 24 hours. The open interest across seven exchanges is about $854 million, down 5.83% in 24 hours; liquidations in the same period are at least $2.75 million, with about $2.39 million from the bullish side. If the $4 level continues to break, short-term pressure may increase.
In short: BTC is still digesting ETF outflows, ETH maintains structure through relative strength, but NEAR is undergoing more pronounced leveraged liquidation. Before the price rebounds, watch whose selling pressure truly eases.
#苹果新CEO迎来iPhone18首份成绩单 Dage watching the market
ETH tonight's market
To put it simply: don't guess the direction, watch Wash's mood
The current price is around 2285, pulled up from 2247 during the day, looks lively, but see where it's stuck—just a bit above the intraday pivot at 2284, with the 7-day moving average at 2289 and the 12-day moving average at 2319 overhead, then the 20-day moving average at 2362 further up, pressing down layer by layer. It's like someone climbing stairs, reaching the third step and finding the way blocked by people above, unable to go up but not falling down either. Weak recovery, not a reversal, this point must be established first
The biggest variable tonight is Fed Chair Wash's speech at the IMF at 11:30, his last public appearance before the FOMC blackout period. CPI and PPI just blew past expectations consecutively, and the market is waiting for his words. The probability leans hawkish because Wash himself is tough, and the data leaves him no room to back down. But the trouble is he probably won't be definitive, so the market won't know if there will be a rate hike in October—this kind of "uncertainty itself is bearish" situation is the hardest for ETH.
Looking at the market structure, there's a very split situation here. Funding rates were negative a couple of days ago, today flipped back to +0.0034%, long-short account ratio at 2.71, superficially the bulls look active. But on the other side, the US ETH spot ETF has had 23 consecutive days of net outflows, with whales distributing hundreds of thousands of coins around 2400. This rebound looks more like shorts covering, not new money entering. Above 2,319 there are still about 26 million shorts pressing down, making it hard to break through and wearing people down
$BTC Is the memory chip market starting to cool down? SanDisk targets 1050, Hynix targets 950! $SNDK
Recently, SanDisk and Hynix have shown a clear weakening trend. I believe this round of the memory market may be entering an adjustment phase.
First, looking at the news: Kioxia's latest earnings guidance fell short of market expectations, and the NAND price increase has also significantly slowed. Although SanDisk's earnings are good, its stock price still plunged At the $ETH 2264 level, some capital silently swallowed over 9,000 ETH.
A quick glance upward shows nearly a billion dollars worth of short liquidation orders hanging above 2346.
Interestingly, the funding rate is still slightly negative, with shorts paying interest daily to hold on.
This is not a resistance level; it's clearly a fuel depot in the eyes of the main players. Just brushing the liquidation line triggers a liquidation stampede that can directly push the market up.
#ETH
$ETH
👇Apple $AAPL will report its quarterly earnings after the U.S. Eastern market closes today. The U.S. has just switched to standard time, so results will only be seen after 5 a.m. Beijing time tomorrow. The consensus expects earnings per share around $1.99 and revenue around $113.4 billion, with the company’s own growth guidance between 9% and 11%.
The stock price pressure comes from the gross margin. Apple guided 47% to 48%, while the June quarter was still at 50.1%, which included about 1 point of tariff refunds. Cook previously called the memory price hike a "once-in-a-century flood." TrendForce expects DRAM contract prices to rise another 20% in Q4, after increases of about 80% and 40% in the first two quarters respectively. Apple cannot avoid this cost pressure.
Sales news is mixed. According to Counterpoint, in the first three weeks of iPhone 18 Pro series sales, global sales increased only 3.1% year-over-year, with the U.S. down 4%, Japan down 27%, and only China’s 29% increase holding it up. The U.S. starting price was just raised by $100, with the Pro at $1199 and Pro Max at $1299, passing some costs to consumers but also deterring some U.S. buyers. Jeffries’ Edison Lee has already downgraded Apple to "underperform."
Maintaining a 47% gross margin is considered passing, indicating that the price increase offset the memory cost. More importantly, the guidance for the December quarter is key. The market expects revenue around $153.4 billion. If China’s 29% increase is just a launch bonus, the guidance won’t reach this number, and Apple won’t be able to support the Nasdaq $QQQ, which has already fallen for several weeks. At the moment when blood pressure drops, don't rush to push vasopressors—first feel the carotid artery to check perfusion.
I've performed many such surgeries: the monitor numbers look bad, and the young doctor's hand is already reaching for vasoactive drugs. I hold him back. Numbers are symptoms; perfusion is life. Today's restlessness before the quarterly earnings announcement of this high-speed optical interconnect manufacturer is exactly the same clinical scenario—the price fluctuation is just a curve on the screen; what really needs diagnosis is whether the myocardium of this supply chain can still be perfused.
What the computing cluster needs is never narrative, but oxygen. High-speed optical interconnect is that microcirculation: the large vessels are capital expenditures, whether they flow depends on the budget; the microcirculation is the delivery of optical devices and optical modules, whether it's blocked depends on production scheduling. No matter how large the vessels, once the microcirculation spasms, the myocardium still suffers ischemia, and ischemia first occurs in the subendocardium—that is, the layer closest to cash flow. Orders and shipments are the contrast agent injection's first-second imaging, more reliable than any beautiful surface ECG.
I focus on the pressure gradient. Whether the perfusion pressure on the demand side is sufficient determines if this segment is functionally stenotic or already calcified. If the guidance is just to reschedule old orders earlier, that's vascular spasm, treatable with medication; if delivery cycles lengthen, customer concentration rises, and stocking rhythms are disrupted, that's plaque, requiring long-term anticoagulation, not solved with a single injection.
The tokenized target codenamed XIWM is essentially bedside monitoring: convenient, continuous, non-invasive, but it has signal delay and motion artifacts. Surface perfusion always lags behind central circulation; token prices reflect peripheral capillary filling, while the real contrast agent is in the spot market and that earnings report itself. When the monitor alarms, first feel the carotid artery, then look at the screen—the few seconds of divergence between the two are precisely where artifacts are most frequent.
Check three vital signs: first, whether the stroke volume of capital expenditure is still growing or just sustained by one-time capacity load; second, whether the optical device delivery cycle has been extended to the point of pre-load overload—once the right heart swells, subsequent perfusion is all false; third, the blood volume on the financing side—each widening of the credit spread equals continuous intraoperative bleeding that fluid replacement cannot fix.
My judgment: currently, perfusion is insufficient, not myocardial necrosis. But the contrast agent hasn't finished injecting yet; whoever closes the chest at this moment is gambling on the residual collateral circulation on the table. #lumentumq1opticalgrowthA trader saw the market at 3 a.m., thought they had hit the bottom, and went all in with maximum leverage. By dawn, TRUMP ($TRUMP) had plunged 40%, BEAT ($BEAT) crashed 72%, resulting in a 133% loss on this trade, and another position lost 63%. This loss hides two fatal mistakes. First, the trader was certain the market would rebound after the drop, ignoring that meme coins have extremely poor liquidity; once leveraged buyers enter, support collapses instantly. Second, the trader blindly trusted leverage tools. TRUMP ($TRUMP) is a narrative-driven coin whose hype can fade anytime; BEAT ($BEAT) is just a copycat token with very weak liquidity. Applying 10x leverage to it is no longer trading but pure gambling. More alarming is the 344% margin ratio, which creates a false sense of security. Maintenance margin only indicates how far from liquidation, not whether the trade logic holds. With 50x leverage, even a small wick can cause huge losses. Leverage amplifies profits and losses and compresses the time for error tolerance. The trader who planned to wait for a rebound could only watch the candlesticks until dawn. Bitcoin ($BTC) and Ethereum ($ETH) determine overall liquidity and whether these niche coins can sustain a rebound. In the meme coin market, the true bottom is reserved only for buyers who can endure short-term drawdowns, not those who can't.Transferring the same 1 dollar, why do different stablecoins carry different risks?
Because having the same price target does not mean the underlying mechanisms are the same.
When evaluating stablecoins, focus on:
* Issuance mechanism: fiat reserves, crypto asset collateral, or derivatives and hedging?
* Reserve assets: Is the asset composition, custody arrangement, and public reporting clear?
* Redemption capability: Who can redeem? What conditions must be met?
* Market liquidity: Is it easy to exchange? How large is the bid-ask spread?
* On-chain risks: Are there freezing, transfer restrictions, or upgrade permissions?
* Network risks: Is the currently used version officially supported?
Being able to transfer does not mean you can redeem at 1 dollar anytime; historically close to 1 dollar does not guarantee it won’t depeg in the future.
Don’t just look at the price; look at what supports the price and what might happen in extreme situations.
#Web3Security #Stablecoin #DigitalAssets Seeing the top profit holders heavily shorting, I get that familiar feeling from the last round: the market always loves to treat the winners' positions as directional signals. The two highest-earning traders on Hyperliquid this month hold a combined short position of about $1.06 billion, involving crypto assets, precious metals, and meme coins.
This time, I don't just want to look at the total short amount, but rather the contrasts within: the top-ranked trader has an overall leverage of about 4.7x, yet both traders' $HYPE shorts are currently at a floating loss. Profit rankings reflect the past and cannot endorse the current positions; cross-asset layouts also cannot be directly interpreted as a one-sided judgment on the crypto market.
My judgment is that this looks more like a risk appetite signal within the cycle, not a confirmation of a downturn yet. Especially with leverage, if prices move in the opposite direction, the pressure to cover shorts will also be amplified. I will continue to monitor position changes and won't rush to canonize the accounts on the profit leaderboard.An easily overlooked announcement: Swellchain has ceased operations, but the assets left on that chain have not disappeared. Swell stated this week that the three assets $SWELL, swETH, and rswETH are now available for claiming, and official claim pages have been provided for each.
The sequence of this event is worth noting. On October 16, Swell first opened balance inquiries—you could see what remained on the discontinued chain, but you couldn't retrieve it. Only now has the actual claiming been opened, with a clear exit path: these assets can be claimed on Ethereum. First see, then act, with a half-month gap in between.
Why are there three separate claim pages instead of a single entry point? Because these are three completely different assets. $SWELL is a token, swETH is a liquid staking certificate, and rswETH is a re-staking certificate. Behind them are two different sets of contract logics; mixing them in one entry would be more prone to errors.
For holders, the mechanism is not complicated: the chain has stopped, but the contracts still exist. Use the official pages to claim your balance onto Ethereum. If you don't do this step, your assets will remain forever on a network that no longer produces blocks.
What’s truly worth considering is another layer: when a chain announces its shutdown, the last line of protection for token holders is not the price, but whether the project team is willing to keep the claim channels open to the end. This time they did; what about next time? When a shutdown announcement is issued, first check if there is a corresponding exit path—it’s more useful than looking at the price drop.Looking down from the acceptance platform of the ultra-high core tube, the biggest fear is not the strong wind, but the conflicting readings from three monitoring systems within the same building—today's BTC structural report is exactly this situation. The price slipped about 7.3% from the load-bearing layer, repeatedly finding support between $77,000 and $80,000; meanwhile, the spot channel withdrew $643 million in a single day, like a concrete mixer truck suddenly stopping halfway through pouring, cutting off four consecutive days of continuous inflows. Even more glaring is the premium index staying negative for 38 consecutive days, the longest structural deviation since November 2022, indicating that the stress difference between offshore and onshore has not been released.
But don't rush to declare the building unsafe. Miners' total revenue in October reached $1.215 billion, an eleven-month high, indicating an expanding bill of quantities; however, revenue per unit of computing power dropped about 17.5%, meaning the total contract amount increased, but the unit cost was squeezed. Translated into construction terms: the tower crane is working harder, but the profit per lift is shrinking. This "volume up, price down" scissors effect often forces miners to shift from holding coins to spot selling pressure, meaning shrinkage cracks start appearing on the inside of the load-bearing wall.
Looking at the linkage with tokenized US stocks, the essence is the mutual influence of dewatering in adjacent foundation pits. When there is subsidence on the tech stock side, this transmission crack climbs along the tie beam to the foundation of crypto assets. The current question is: can the main tendon of spot demand be retensioned properly, and will miners' selling pressure become a new lateral load? My judgment is straightforward—unless the premium index turns positive, any rebound is just decorative curtain walls, not structural topping. Cracks never first appear on load-bearing walls; they always start smiling from the surface layer. #btcmarketsignalsdivergeRisk Warning: The following is a conditional strategy based on the public market and capital flow data as of November 2nd and does not constitute investment advice. The next 48 hours will be influenced by two event windows: the U.S. midterm elections (November 3rd) and the Nonfarm Payrolls report (November 6th). Position management takes priority over directional judgment.
As of November 2nd, BTC was quoted around 77,800–78,100, and ETH around 2,264–2,267, both showing a slight rebound from lows. However, the quality of this rebound is questionable: BTC's 1-hour RSI already indicates overbought conditions, and intraday volume is only about 14% of the 7-day average; ETH is weaker, at about 10%. A rebound lacking volume is essentially an emotional repair under low trading activity, not a structural bullish reversal.
$BTC Trading Strategy: 78,000–78,500 is the short-seller's defense line; focus on shorting rebounds.
Core Logic: While prices rise, BTC funding rates remain at +0.01%, and long positions account for 71.62% of the market, indicating longs have not been cleared. The key divergence lies in the capital structure: spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $643 million on Friday, the largest single-day outflow since June, with no product recording net inflows that day; meanwhile, derivatives open interest is expanding. The rebound is driven by leveraged funds rather than spot buying. If ETF redemptions continue, each rebound may face renewed selling pressure. The 78,000 level is the intraday selling pressure observation point, 78,500 is the ultimate test line for the rebound's strength; below, 76,000–77,000 is the near-term long defense baseline, with 76,325 as the 7-day low liquidity support.
Strategy A: Short on Rebound (Main Strategy)
• Entry: Light short positions when BTC rebounds to 78,300–78,600 and shows signs of stalling (upper shadow, volume contraction).
• Stop Loss: Above 79,200.
• Targets: First target 77,200–77,000, second target 76,500.
Strategy B: Short on Breakdown (Conditional Trigger)
• Trigger: BTC breaks down below 76,800 with volume and fails to recover on pullback.
• Entry: Light short positions on pullback to 76,800–77,000 after breakdown.
• Stop Loss: Above 77,600.
• Target: 76,325 (lower liquidity pool).
Long Conditions: Only a volume-backed close above 79,200 would indicate the need to revise the bearish narrative, at which point right-side longs can be considered; before that, buying dips for rebounds has an unfavorable risk-reward ratio.
$ETH Trading Strategy: 2,295–2,300 is a hard resistance; shorting offers a better risk-reward than BTC.
Core Logic: ETH's weakness is structural. The 30-day moving average is near 2,295, a resistance that must be broken for the rebound to expand. Capital continues to bleed: ETH spot ETFs have had net outflows for 23 consecutive trading days, totaling about $1.607 billion in October alone, with BlackRock's ETHA fund accounting for about $1.42 billion, nearly 90%. More importantly, this rebound is mainly driven by short covering rather than spot buying—meaning the fuel is shorts closing positions, not new money entering, so sustainability is naturally limited. Key support lies at 2,213–2,200; losing this would retest the previous low at 2,171. If 2,193 breaks, cumulative long liquidations on major CEXs will reach $634 million, with about $551 million more liquidation piled below 2,153.
Strategy A: Short on Rebound (Main Strategy)
• Entry: Light short positions when ETH rebounds to 2,290–2,310 and faces resistance.
• Stop Loss: Above 2,340.
• Targets: First target 2,230–2,210, second target 2,180.
Strategy B: Short on Breakdown (Conditional Trigger)
• Trigger: ETH breaks down below 2,193 with volume and fails to recover on pullback.
• Entry: Light short positions on pullback to 2,195–2,210 after breakdown.
• Stop Loss: Above 2,250.
• Targets: 2,171, with an extreme target at 2,153.
Long Conditions: ETH only has basic conditions for right-side longs if it volume-backed holds above 2,300 and BTC simultaneously strengthens; a volume-less breakout of 2,295–2,300 is a window to reduce positions, not to build them.
Position and Risk Management Principles: The next 48 hours are event-driven, not trend-driven.
1. Keep total position size under 10%. The midterm elections on November 3rd and Nonfarm Payrolls on November 6th may reshape market expectations for December's interest rate path. Directional bets before these events are essentially gambling, not trading.
2. BTC 79,200 and ETH 2,340 are stop-loss lines for shorts; if prices rise above, exit and observe without holding positions.
3. The optimal current strategy is to "wait for rebounds to resistance before acting," not to chase shorts mid-move. BTC's 78,300–78,600 and ETH's 2,290–2,310 are levels shorts are willing to defend; if prices fall without rebounding, it's better to miss the trade than to short at lows.
4. Whether ETFs stop bleeding is the core variable for mid-term direction. If BTC ETF outflows of $643 million per day continue this week, the spot base for rebounds will remain absent; conversely, if outflows narrow or turn positive, the bearish logic must be reassessed. Until clear signals emerge from capital flows, holding cash positions is itself a form of position.
When the market panics, others are fearful while I am greedy—everyone says this, but when it comes to actually trading, hands still tremble. The phrase "unity of knowledge and action" is the hardest hurdle to overcome in trading. $SNDK $BTC $ETH However, there is one point that needs to be corrected first. Saying that the US stock market valuation is at a historical low right now is not quite accurate. The Shiller P/E ratio of the S&P 500 is close to 40 times, second only to the peak during the 2000 internet bubble, while the historical average is only 17 times. The Buffett indicator has also surged above 220%, even higher than during the bubble period. With these two data points, claiming a bottom is indeed a bit far-fetched. But you are right about the sentiment side. The fear and greed index has dropped to 26 points, and the VIX has jumped up, so there is indeed short-term selling pressure. However, this round of decline is not due to fundamental problems; it is the combined effect of AI bubble concerns, Middle East tensions, and election uncertainties that have suppressed sentiment. The historical data after midterm elections does look good. Since 1954, in the 12 months following each election, the S&P 500 has averaged gains of 14% to 15%, with all 19 occurrences closing positive. Morgan Stanley has even set a target of 8000 points by the end of the year. But historical patterns are not a talisman. In 1974 stagflation, 2002 tech bubble burst, and 2022 aggressive rate hikes, the US stock market did not rise after midterm elections either. The true determinants of the US stock market direction are always the three underlying variables: interest rates, earnings, and liquidity; elections are just an emotional disturbance factor. So, buying more as prices fall can be executed, but don’t use "valuation bottom" as the reason. What truly supports your bet is $OKB briefly warmed up in the early market, but the trend quietly shifted in the afternoon, with OKB leading the way into the red. This raises the question: Is this round of gains a genuine stabilization and rebound, or just a bull trap?
First, looking at $BTC, the current price is 77,953. It appears to hold near 78,000, but the support mainly relies on leveraged funds, while spot funds continue to withdraw. BTC ETFs saw a net outflow of $643 million in a single day, derivative exposure is rising, and without spot buying support, the rebound foundation is weak; the short-term core support is at 77,300, which is both the lower Bollinger Band and a recent key level.
Next, $ETH is currently priced at 2,279, with significant market divergence. The ETH spot ETF has experienced net outflows for 23 consecutive trading days, marking the longest outflow streak since its launch. Institutional funds are continuously exiting, yet the price has not broken below previous lows, and the RSI remains in a weak zone at 34.8. This divergence—institutions selling while price holds—if prolonged, could lead to a stronger breakout once the level is breached.
$OKB is currently at 112.87. It surged to a high in the morning with gains reaching 2.72%, leading the entire CeFi sector, but weakened and turned red in the afternoon. Although the compliance benefits from OKX's partnership with ICE continue to ferment, the market has already priced in these expectations. After the positive news is realized, funds are choosing to take profits and exit.#Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？
The boss has something to say
Circle will release its Q3 earnings before the market opens on November 4. As the USDC scale expands, the market is focusing on reserve income, distribution costs, and profit quality.
I believe the core contradiction in this earnings report is still the profit structure. The comments section hits the point: profits are tied to reserve interest rates, USDC grew by 25% but reserve income only increased by 5%. This shows that even if the stablecoin market grows larger, if the high interest rate environment changes or the distribution costs to channels like Coinbase are too high, profits simply cannot keep up with scale expansion. Circle is currently operating on thin margins but high volume.
On the market front, CRCL rose slightly by 0.20%, and xCRCL increased by 0.22%. 66% of the community is betting on an outperform, but funds have actually been very cautious before the earnings release.
For crypto, Circle is a bellwether in the stablecoin sector. If the earnings show growth in scale but no improvement in profitability, it indicates that this business model is extremely dependent on high interest rates. This is a test for the valuation logic of the entire sector.
Bitcoin fell below 77,000 last night and is still grinding below. Let's see if it can reclaim 80,000. If it can't hold, expect a deeper pullback, with resistance above at 84,000 to 85,000. Don't chase the rally or sell in panic; set your stop losses properly.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; make sure to set your stop losses. Good luck. $BTC $ETH $SOL The bulls have been pushed to the edge of a cliff, facing a major liquidation at any moment.
Focus on the pain points below for the bulls: $BTC, $ETH, $SOL, XRP, all within 1% of the liquidation zone below. Especially SOL, which is only 0.72% away; even a slight tremble could wipe out the leveraged bulls beneath.
Looking at the 24-hour touch data, the earlier values are much higher than the later ones, indicating that the price has been repeatedly testing downward over the past day but has not yet found a bottom.
Only the gold gravity is slightly higher, indicating that panic funds are fleeing to safe havens.
This dense and very close structure of bulls likely means the main force will follow the trend to push down sharply, completely liquidating the bulls before considering a rebound.
Do not blindly catch the falling knife at this time; watch more and act less. Wait until this wave of leverage is cleaned out before making moves.
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ DeFi positions need to be closed or managed separately. Pause for a moment. For now, I’m focusing on handling costs, not the hype around new tools. ⚡ Scroll has launched a position query tool, and the official bridge continues to support transfers with Ethereum; the transition date is not yet finalized.
My judgment: This feels more like a risk consolidation notice rather than a short-term bullish catalyst. Being able to check positions doesn’t mean the positions have been properly managed. Users still need to operate item by item, and attention may easily shift from participating in the ecosystem to arranging exits. My guess is that if such concerns accumulate, the short-term sentiment related to the ecosystem might face pressure first; but this doesn’t directly imply that the coin price must fall.
For short-term entry and exit, I won’t use this news alone to decide direction. If a sharp rally occurs after the news, I’ll first see if there’s sustained support before considering participation; exit conditions also need to be clearly thought out, not loosened temporarily just because a “tool is launched.” The more chaotic the rhythm, the more I remind myself: understanding the notice and understanding the market are two different things.BTC hit new lows after the last three midterm elections! But this time might be different?
In the past three U.S. midterm elections, BTC indeed showed a phenomenon worth noting: it bottomed 71 days after the 2014 vote, about 39 days after 2018, and only 13 days after 2022. The intervals have been shortening, but is this a cyclical pattern or just a coincidence?
More importantly, the 2022 low coincided with the FTX collapse, so it can't be simply attributed to the election. This year is different: BTC already hit a phase low of $57,850 on July 1, 125 days before the November 3 vote.
My view is: historical data is worth referencing but should not be taken directly as a bearish signal. After the election, close attention should still be paid to Federal Reserve policies, ETF capital flows, and market leverage. Be cautious of a potential double bottom in the coming weeks, but don't preset a bottom date. Managing position size and waiting for trend confirmation is more important than mechanically following the 71→39→13 pattern. $BTC #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ Wow, you don't realize it until you see it, and then you're shocked!
$BTC has dropped to 77,900, so why are so many people still unable to resist trying to catch the bottom? They see the price falling a lot and try to guess the bottom on the left side to go long? Look at the current market, the bulls have long been held underwater. I entered a short position at 80,719.5 during this downtrend, and now I'm comfortably enjoying a 10.31% profit.
Haven't you noticed how smooth this drop has been?
Because the funds that FOMO bought at the bottom have long been exhausted by the previous few fake rebounds. Look at the current order book depth, there are more than ten large sell orders directly pressing above 77,945.4. If the bulls dare to poke their heads out even a little, they are instantly crushed to pulp. The support below is pitifully thin, and liquidity simply can't keep up.
Bulls need to be patient, why so anxious? The big trend is down, going short with the trend is the way to go, don't always think about catching falling knives. Hold your short positions steady, let the bullets fly a little longer!
$ETH $ZEC #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ Stock tokenization is not as simple as "posting a screenshot of a stock on the blockchain"; it's a matchmaking event spanning Wall Street and public blockchains. The matchmakers include listed companies, custodians, brokers, exchanges, stablecoins, oracles, wallets, and auditing firms. The bride price includes custody fees, issuance fees, transaction fees, settlement fees, and data fees. Ultimately, whoever holds the user's hand becomes the toll station master. Suppose you have one share of Apple stock that needs to travel all the way from Nasdaq to your crypto wallet. You might think it's just "click once, Apple goes on-chain"? No, behind it is a complete industrial chain: the asset layer ensures the stock is real; the compliance layer ensures you don't step on a sewing machine; the data layer ensures Apple doesn't turn into a pear; the settlement layer ensures the money doesn't fly away; the technology layer ensures the chain doesn't break; the entry layer ensures you are finally brought in. In short: stock tokenization is not a single project, but a whole on-chain financial system. You can see the image below: 1. Asset layer: Without real stocks, the tokens in your hand are just "cyber air." Everyone wants to put stocks on the blockchain, thinking it's trendy and convenient. But ultimately, tokens on the chain are just packaging; the "filling" inside must be genuine stocks. Without legal protection and the ability to redeem for real stocks at any time, these tokens are no different from skins in a game. Currently, there are three approaches: The first: the listed company itself goes on-chain. This is the most authentic but also the slowest. Think about it, those decades-old big companies have rulebooks thicker than dictionaries. Having them convert stock registration, transfer, and dividends entirely into smart contracts is like making an elephant jump through a hoop.Coins that fall from a frenzy are the best at playing dead. They won’t rebound for you; instead, they lie at the bottom of the pit all day, occasionally twitching to make you think "it’s hit rock bottom," then a single spike kicks out the last holders.
$BLEND I've been watching it for half a year. During the April listing wave, Upbit doubled in the first minute, surging to 0.25 and beyond, with the whole network shouting it would be the next 100x. But once the airdrop unlocked, by the end of June it crashed straight down to 0.0508, losing 80% of its value, and all the hype died down. In October, it climbed back from the old bottom of 0.0468 to around 0.055 and stalled—I was waiting for this breath.
I didn’t catch it at the bottom. When it touched 0.0555 for the third time but couldn’t break through, the 1H candle had a long upper shadow and volume shrank, so I entered a 20x short, placing my stop loss just above a thin layer of trapped positions. This time I pushed leverage to the lowest level; those who got pricked before know this coin can spike 10% like it’s nothing.
Now it’s hovering at 0.04967. I’m not counting profits, just watching one thing: if the historical bottom at 0.0468 is touched, I’ll close immediately—I won’t bet on a break. The last stretch of a low-priced coin is a graveyard reserved for those stubbornly holding shorts.
This trade taught me: the closer to the bottom, the less greedy you should be. Hitting rock bottom isn’t a reason to stop falling; it’s fuel for the spike. $BTC $ETH #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ This Monday evening's situation is a bit strange. Binance had a net outflow of over $7 billion, but the coin price remained unchanged; the coins just moved to another exchange. The real withdrawal is from Wall Street. The October ledgers of the three ETFs for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and SOL are all looking worse and worse.
$BTC is hovering around 78016, grinding sideways
Up 0.05% in 24 hours. Last Friday, the US spot ETF had a single-day outflow of $643 million, with BlackRock's IBIT alone withdrawing $234 million. October's net outflow is $515 million, the first negative month since June. The dip to 77000 on Thursday hasn't recovered since.
$ETH is around 2288, institutions are pulling out 📉
Up 0.83% in 24 hours, the best among the three. The CanSino ETF had a net outflow of $1.61 billion in October, the largest since listing, with a net outflow of about $45 million for the year.
$SOL is around 94.28, lagging behind
Down 1.23% in 24 hours. The spot ETF had a net outflow of $143.7 million in October, also the worst month since listing. The 100 mark has not been reclaimed.
Among the three, Bitcoin is actually the most resilient. Even with a daily ETF outflow of over $600 million, it just moves sideways. If institutions stop the bleeding before Friday's nonfarm payrolls, the 78000 level can be considered a support. Ethereum's slight gain is driven by Binance opening the floodgates, but ETF funds are not returning, so any rise is illusory. SOL is the most worrisome, severely lacking new money. Once it drops below 95, the 90 whole number support is just ahead. #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ #OpenAI financing target lowered, Anthropic credit risk under scrutiny PLTR earnings report, is it highly likely to hold at 0.42?
Profit conversion rate is the core variable in this calculation, recorded 0.876 in Q2, estimated to fall within 0.82–0.85 in Q3, with a dilution cap of 2.6 billion shares. In a pessimistic scenario, if both indicators reach their limits, the corresponding EPS would be 0.408.
As long as net profit exceeds expectations by 5%, under the same conditions the value rises to 0.428, surpassing the 0.42 threshold and beating Wall Street's consensus expectation of 0.41. The range leans toward 0.43-0.46, indicating upside potential.
Open the position, verify the observation conditions corresponding to the PLTR position, and reserve room for adjustments after the earnings release.
Once the profit conversion rate falls below 0.82, this optimistic calculation logic immediately fails.
$BTC $ETH $SOL $BTC
Impact of Binance Hacker Incident: On October 30, Binance suffered a record-breaking hacker attack, causing Bitcoin to briefly drop below $77,000 and triggering $1.34 billion in long liquidations. Although Binance has pledged to cover all losses and freeze related assets, market sentiment remains shaken, resulting in price fluctuations around the $78,000 level.
Federal Reserve Rate Expectations: After the Fed's rate hike in September, market expectations for another hike in December have intensified, suppressing valuations of risk assets. However, with the U.S. midterm elections approaching, historical data shows Bitcoin tends to record positive returns in the 12 months following the election, which may provide some psychological support to the market.
Geopolitical Factors: New developments in U.S.-Iran negotiations indicate Iran has agreed to a "two-day plan," meaning the Strait of Hormuz will open after the U.S. takes compliance measures. This news alleviates market concerns about the Middle East situation and is positive for risk assets.
Trading Recommendations
Short-term Traders: Monitor the breakout at 78,866.5; if volume confirms the breakout, consider light position entry with a stop loss set below 77,500; if the breakout fails and price falls below 77,200, consider short positions.
Mid-term Investors: It is advised to wait for clarity on macro liquidity expectations before making directional judgments. Maintain a wait-and-see stance within the current range and avoid heavy positions ahead of major events. #苹果新CEO迎来iPhone18首份成绩单
The trickiest part of reading the earnings report is right here: the report beats expectations, yet the stock price falls; performance is average, but the stock price rises instead. Simply put, the key is not whether the performance itself is good or bad, but how much of that expectation the market has already priced in. AAPL's iPhone sales (breaking down right after launch) must be viewed with this logic, otherwise focusing only on the numbers can easily lead to misinterpretation. Using 25 tons of physical copper as token backing, I immediately felt a familiar vibe from the previous cycle: it's time again to discuss "how to bring off-chain assets onto the chain." Metals.io stores this batch of copper in Germany, with an initial reserve value of $366,000, aiming to allow investors to hold and trade physical metals on-chain.
This time, unlike before when it was just talk about "everything can be tokenized," the discussion is at least focused on specific inventory. But I won't automatically give it extra credit just because it’s "physically backed." The copper is in the warehouse, the tokens are in wallets, and what connects the rights between them is what I care about most.
My judgment is that this is more like an RWA product landing attempt, not yet a signal of explosive demand in the sector. The issuance solves the asset entry problem but doesn't solve who will keep trading continuously. My guess is, if the reserves can be continuously verified, and holders’ rights and redemption paths are clear, then ordinary users can better judge what they actually hold, rather than just buying a copper price story.
Having gone through the last cycle, I’m no longer so excited about the words "on-chain." This news is meaningful, but its weight depends on subsequent operations to prove it. I will first focus on reserve disclosure and rights arrangements, and won’t rush to read a single issuance as a cycle turning point.$SOPH just experienced an unreasonable surge a few days ago, and now this asset has stubbornly pulled off another +15.06% increase, which is quite fierce.
【Hardcore review of this “deep V shakeout”】：
Looking at the 1-hour chart, it first shot up from 0.001186 to 0.002458, then a big bearish candle slammed it back down to 0.0014 to shake out the market. Now it’s supported by the MA20 and MA60 (0.001572) double moving averages, with a high-level MACD golden cross, and the red bars are expanding again, forming an extremely violent “N-shaped reversal.”
Unique insights and macro logic:
The data in chart 2 is interesting: bullish accounts are 55.24%, with a long-short ratio of 1.23, indicating retail sentiment is still relatively normal. But combined with the negative funding rate above, it shows the main force is aggressively pushing the spot price, absorbing the shorts’ funding fees. Currently, liquidity in the broader market is tightening, so speculative funds can only huddle together in new Layer1 coins like SOPH, playing a game of hot potato. With a 90-day drop as high as 57%, this move is purely an oversold rebound combined with capital speculation.
My advice:
Use the strongest rebound to bait the greediest retail traders. Although the trend is strong, don’t stubbornly chase the price at market orders here! The trapped positions at the previous high of 0.002458 could crash the price at any time. Wait for it to pull back without breaking the moving averages (around 0.0015) before entering long on the right side, and set a proper stop loss. If you rush in now, be careful not to get stuck halfway up the mountain!There's something I've never quite understood: why can't the stocks bought in brokerage apps be transferred directly into a wallet?
Now there's some progress—the scale of tokenized stocks on Ethereum has reached $827 million, a 170% increase in one year. Sounds impressive, but my first reaction was: that number is less than the market cap of some popular new coins, is it really worth getting excited about?
Looking at it from another angle, what's increasing isn't the price, but the number of stocks moved onto the blockchain. This is totally different from me buying $ETH to bet on price fluctuations.
To be self-deprecating, the stocks and coins in my account are like two isolated islands, and the money just can't cross between them. I really hope that $827 million soon gets two more zeros behind it.$827 million, a year-on-year increase of 170%. This is the scale of tokenized stocks on Ethereum. Many people will just scroll past this because it has nothing to do with today's price. But these kinds of numbers are exactly what should be looked at: they measure how many real assets are willing to move ownership onto the chain, rather than how much capital is willing to bet on direction.
Breaking down the two numbers. $827 million is not large compared to the total crypto market cap. But a 170% year-on-year increase is close to tripling, and this growth rate is not driven by market hype. A curve that can rise year after year usually indicates not speculation, but that someone really needs it.
Mechanically, tokenized stocks solve a very specific friction: stock accounts and crypto accounts are two separate systems, and money cannot flow between them. Making stocks into on-chain tokens means $ETH gains a new demand path that does not require going through exchanges—holding or trading these assets requires having an on-chain position and Gas. This demand does not fluctuate with market ups and downs; it grows with the willingness of assets to go on-chain.
So the judgment is: the significance of this for $ETH is not in price, but in narrative foundation. ETFs are bought from outside and can be reversed; tokenized stocks turn $ETH into a venue for asset settlement, and once migrated, it is hard to move back.
What is worth considering is: $827 million is not enough to support the claim that "Ethereum becomes Wall Street's clearing layer"; it is more like a small, functioning, and growing sample. Whether the slope of this line can be maintained next year is the key.Last Friday, several Federal Reserve governors signaled a hawkish policy stance. Why did the probability of a rate hike in December drop from 84% to 73%?
Actually, I already explained this in my analysis of Waller's speech last week. This is essentially a form of "reflexivity" in the current Fed policy logic.
There are two opposing logics here:
The positive logic: the more the market believes the Fed will not raise rates, the more relaxed the market becomes, which ironically gives the Fed more room and necessity to raise rates.
The negative logic: the more the market fears a Fed rate hike, the tighter the market becomes, which ironically makes it more likely the Fed will not need to raise rates.
This brings us back to the conclusion I reached early in Waller's tenure—that in the Waller era, it is possible to shape a limited easing financial environment, directing "liquidity" to certain areas.
So, after the Fed governors' consecutive hawkish signals last Friday and the expanded decline in U.S. stocks completing a "Black Friday," the market instead believes the current financial environment has already tightened rapidly, reducing the necessity for a December rate hike.
If the Middle East situation can ease at this time, Brent crude returns to a downward trend, and gradually falls below $95 in the next month, then the financial market will gradually ease.
Of course, as long as inflation expectations persist, this chain of opposing logics will continue. If U.S. stocks quickly recover their losses before December, it will actually increase the probability of a December rate hike!#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ The DEX sector was repriced this week. Centralized platforms ran into trouble, which theoretically benefits decentralization, but the market did not act that way. Because benefits come in two types: direct beneficiaries and those revalued by association.
$AAVE is approaching the critical support at 126, whales have liquidated $109 million positions on Hyperliquid, ETH deposits on the collateral side are shrinking, and the lending protocol's revenue model is under short-term pressure. Whether this level breaks or not will determine the depth of this adjustment.
$GMX falls into the latter category: the sector story has been taken over by Hyperliquid and new compliant players, fee rates and token performance continue to lag, and there is no bottoming structure near 8 dollars.
$ENA, on the other hand, benefits on the fee side; increased volatility gives its mechanism extra income. It is holding steady around 0.18, but its vulnerability to extreme market conditions has not disappeared.
The same positive factor, applied to different business models, results in completely opposite outcomes. Lang Lang🌊 shares
Brothers, watch out for the tricks of the Blonde Coin, be cautious about shorting at highs. Every time before unlocking, there is a deliberate pump to take advantage of the high position to sell off.
After the midterm elections settle, the market will most likely continue to weaken. Once the hype fades and the term ends, if this coin can hold a market cap of 100 million, that would be considered good. Speculating on these sentiment-driven coins is extremely risky, so never blindly chase the highs.
$TRUMP $BTC BTC $ETH
#Federal Reserve officials signal rate hikes, December expectations still divided#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 In the crypto world over these years, if I had to judge whether a profit comes from skill or market dividends, I definitely wouldn't look at how many digits the account balance has increased by, but would instead conduct a ruthless soul-searching from the following four dimensions. 1. Stress Test: Stripping away the hype, can your strategy survive in a volatile or bear market? There's an old saying in crypto: in a bull market, everyone is a stock god. When the market rises from 20,000 to 60,000, you can blindly buy altcoins and still double your money. This is called a dividend, a gift from the era and the cycle. The first criterion to judge skill is anti-fragility. I extract the profit logic from this period and backtest it on historical data, or see how it performs in recent extreme volatile markets with sharp spikes. If my trading system sucks up profits crazily during a one-sided rally but suffers huge drawdowns or even loses all profits once the market turns volatile or slowly declines, then I must admit this is not my skill, I just happened to buy a rising elevator. True skill is when the trading system can still, in adverse conditions, through strict risk control and reasonable risk-reward ratio, achieve small losses and big gains, and hold the bottom line. 2. Attribution Analysis: Is this money planned or a windfall? The core of skill lies in explainability and reproducibility. If I review this trade and can clearly map it to my system's entry signals, clear stop-loss levels, and phased take-profit plans, and the subsequent market conditions fully...$BTC Daily Report #BTC财库优先股融资升温 🔥 Bull Trap or Second Bottom Test? Bloodbath at BTC 78,000 Level, The Storm Has Just Begun!
📊 1. Market Daily Report and Liquidation Data
BTC is currently consolidating narrowly around $78,100. The total 24-hour liquidation across the network reached $5.01M.
Among them, short liquidations totaled $3.64M (the largest single short liquidation occurred on Binance, valued at $1.18M);
long liquidations totaled $1.36M (the largest single long liquidation occurred on OKX, valued at $298.9K).
🎯 2. Trader's Practical Analysis
Don't be fooled by the slight rebound in the past two days! The daily RSI has dropped to 38, indicating weakness, and the total network volume has shrunk to 18% of the daily average, a typical sign of a major player pumping to lure longs. Large capital is exploiting liquidity exhaustion to drain funds; the annualized funding rate above is only 5.6%, showing extremely low willingness for bulls to follow. This volume contraction rebound is merely accumulating momentum for the next downward surge.
📍 3. Key Price Levels for Offense and Defense
* First resistance: $80,000 (daily 50 EMA and heavy options expiry pressure zone)
* Strong resistance: $82,000
* Key support: $76,000
* Strong support: $73,000 - $75,000 (dense liquidation pool below and the ultimate defense line at the 200-day moving average) First bear market bottom around January 10, 2015
Second bear market bottom around December 10, 2018
Third bear market bottom around November 10, 2022
Fourth bear market bottom around June 10, 2026
According to the carved-boat theory, Bitcoin should now be close to a 70% drop, but in reality, it is not.
In other words, where the price can go has nothing to do with historical timing or trend patterns; many things are coincidental. Each cycle has different trends, and they are unpredictable.
No matter what the trend is, the bottom state is always the same:
1. Start doubting the bull market is gone
2. Reach a consensus on an exaggerated low point
The essence of the bottom is the clearing of selling pressure, the exhaustion of sell orders. If everyone is cheerful and full of hope for the future, how can selling pressure be cleared?
Therefore, the bottom must be under extreme pressure, with bad news everywhere and no hope in sight.
It makes the bulls lose confidence in being bullish at the end,
And makes the bears confident in being bearish.
This state is just telling you that this is a good buying opportunity, a state that must be experienced before dawn arrives.
When the signal appears, no one can precisely buy at the lowest point. After you buy, the price may continue to fall, which does not mean you bought wrong.
When the market moves out, you will find that the buying position back then was very reasonable.
Just like in June and July this year, buying at 68000 or 65000 was very reasonable, even though the price continued to fall after you bought.$MUBARAK has been suppressed below EMA5/10/20 for 2 hours, with no support at 7-day -16% and 30-day -30%. About 80% of near-term liquidations are above, but the cumulative volume up and down is roughly balanced. Dense trading occurs at 0.0448-0.0449, approximately $76,000; below that, only 0.0434, less than 0.5%. Compared to the daily trading volume of 1.88 million, both levels are only enough for wicks.
If it rebounds into 0.0448-0.0452, and closes with an upper shadow then returns below 0.0443, short again with a stop loss at 0.0456. First target is 0.0435; if broken, then look at 0.039. If it first sweeps 0.0434 then recovers to 0.0436, only a short-term long is possible. This kind of coin will eventually go to zero #非农来袭，12月加息会否生变？ The 7.02 million $UNI hole on Binance still hasn't been filled.
Nearly a $40 million spot gap, sooner or later it has to be bought back from the secondary market.
They've been forced to become the biggest obvious long position on the board.
As long as the shorts dare to push down, every low they create is essentially patching the exchange's inventory and propping up the price.
For this position to drop deeply, someone would have to magically produce millions of spot tokens to return to the platform.
#UNI
$UNI
👇$BTC VS $ETH liquidation comparison, the overall trend is the same, but the short-term rhythm is different📊
Both major coins prioritize liquidating short positions within 24 hours, but there are distinctions in short-term details:
✅ BTC: 24h liquidation of 36.578 million U, with larger short position liquidations, the main force focuses on harvesting short funds
✅ ETH: 24h liquidation of 36.565 million U, short position liquidations are also predominant, long positions are first washed out in hourly phases, with more frequent back-and-forth tug-of-war
Overall, it's a short-squeeze market, with ETH experiencing more frequent short-term shakeouts.
The same major liquidation direction, with short-term interspersed long position washouts, making the volatile market hard to grasp. Today, the A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are following two different scripts.
Domestic main funds poured 11.7 billion into A-shares, with 4,681 stocks rising, and the STAR 50 index soaring 3.11%.
AI short drama concepts hit 20% daily limit in batches, liquor stocks also revived, with Moutai climbing back above 1400.
Trading volume exceeded 100 billion, turnover reached 1.78 trillion, a rare high open and strong rally.
But on the Hong Kong side, the Hang Seng Tech index rose 2.25%, Xiaomi surged over 6%, looking quite lively.
However, southbound funds net sold 4.469 billion on the same day, marking the 14th consecutive day of outflow, with Xiaomi alone being sold off by 1.8 billion.
The index is red, but money is withdrawing; this kind of divergence is more worth watching than a one-sided decline.
A-shares are driven by trading policy expectations, while Hong Kong stocks are influenced by trading liquidity realities.
Neither side is wrong; the mistake is thinking that what’s rising is safe.