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#OKX、ICE and Trade.xyz join forces to promote perpetual contracts entering the US compliant market Interest rate hike expectations rise, making it difficult for crypto assets to sustain a rebound
Officials have consecutively released hawkish statements, keeping the probability of rate hikes between 70% and 80%. This can only be considered a linkage at the expectation level and cannot directly determine that the market will continue to decline. The crypto market has fallen in sync with risk assets, with prices directly breaking below the 77,000 mark.
The core PCE in September remains high at 3.1%, and inflation resilience will continue to lock in the easing space, which has already been confirmed by data. ETH shows stronger resistance than BTC, with a slight short-term recovery, but it is currently not suitable to enter or increase positions.
Open your open orders and check the stop-loss price of each pending order carefully.
Only when non-farm payroll data weakens will the rate hike expectations ease; before that, it is difficult to see a decent rebound.
$BTC $ETH $SOL Throughout the day, several signals conflicted with each other.
ETFs are selling, whales are buying; some are rotating BTC into ETH, and addresses linked to the U.S. government are moving coins to exchanges; DeFi assets with income are rising, but the fear index remains at 37. No direction is "certain," and that is the market's norm.
If you chase every piece of news, the three to four hours in the afternoon are enough to open several trades. But the more you trade, the more mistakes you make.
My choice is to only act from my own positions. Around ETH 2,200 is the upper edge of the whales' cost zone, BTC 76,000–80,000 is a clear range, and UNI and AAVE are on the watchlist waiting for the right levels. When the price hits, place orders; if not, wait. I completed a few trades this afternoon; everyone can check the trade records on the homepage, where buy and sell prices are displayed, and the spread between them is mine. Each trade might only gain a few points, but accumulating trade by trade is how the account gradually grows.
I don't predict how the U.S. stock market will open tonight; I just prepare my own orders.
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $BTC $ETH $SOL I hadn't figured out one thing before: Arbitrum's on-chain activity is clearly increasing, so why has the token remained stagnant for years? This week I did the math clearly.
Its tokenized fund has reached 1.1 billion USD, BENJI's money market on-chain is 56 million, USDG lending on $MORPHO is 140 million, and they are still launching stablecoin plans to attract new issuers. All the ecosystem data is positive, yet the token stays stuck at 0.16. The problem lies in distribution: the growth money doesn't reach token holders, so buying the token doesn't equal buying growth.
$OP is the same principle; income and locked tokens exist, but the token's sensitivity to the ecosystem is nearly zero. $POL is even weaker; on days when the sector slightly dips, it leads in decline, so I gave up directly.
So my next move: I won't take left-side positions on these three; I'll wait for governance proposals or buyback mechanisms to evaluate. Until then, for L2, I only pay attention to voting that doesn't require spending money.
Good data doesn't mean I can make money; without changes in the distribution mechanism, any increase benefits others.$XAU gold rebounded today, driven by three important reasons!
1. The previous decline was too large, and rebound demand is gradually being released.
In October, gold cumulatively corrected by nearly 10%, with a single-day drop of about 3.6% on October 30 alone. The continuous decline forced many investors to stop losses and exit, but as selling pressure eased, some funds began to buy at lows, and shorts also needed to cover, naturally leading to a recovery rally in gold. The funds fleeing from the neighboring side in this wave can only be valuable if the user's DEX can catch them; merely catching speculative funds will eventually return them.
$HYPE has caught the most solidly, with both its share and TVL increasing, but the trouble is that a considerable portion of its past buybacks are held in escrow accounts, not truly burned, so the circulating supply hasn't actually shrunk.
HYPE is the biggest beneficiary of this round of spillover, but the excessive hype from a few days ago will suppress the price, so don't get carried away just because the share has increased.
$ASTER is taking a product iteration and volume-grabbing approach, relying on mechanisms like HIP-3 to lower fees and attract new markets, trying to carve out a piece under Hyperliquid's shadow. However, the claim window is open until 11/28, so potential selling pressure hasn't fully dissipated, and TVL has also dropped significantly from its peak.
ASTER is working hard to capture traffic, but its chip structure and the claim window make it the most difficult to catch.
$UNI has the most stable way of capturing traffic; it is the main AMM of Robinhood Chain, with v2/v3/v4 and UniswapX all online. The batch of US stock users from Binance's spillover who want to enter compliantly directly fall into Uniswap pools.
UNI is capturing the on-chain transformation of traditional entry users and is the least likely to be unlocked and dumped. If it doesn't recover the $7 mark, I'll still consider it unpriced. This drop in ZEC is not due to the collapse of the privacy narrative, but a typical "high beta retracement": the previous large gains, profit-taking + ETF net outflows + passive liquidation of leveraged long positions combined in three phases, pushing the price from a high level back to a key support zone. When macro risk aversion heats up and BTC weakens, funds prioritize withdrawing from high-volatility assets, amplifying ZEC's elastic inverse movement. Technically, moving averages show bearish divergence, RSI is oversold but not stabilized, and the $1230–1240 range is the short-term battleground between bulls and bears—if it doesn't hold, further bottom testing will continue; if it holds, recovery can be discussed. NU7 is an expectation, not a moat; the risk of "good news being priced in upon release" still exists. In this security incident, stablecoin issuers and industry partners assisted in freezing some funds. But there is one distinction that needs to be clarified: different assets have different possible handling methods.
Some stablecoins have issuers who can freeze specific addresses through contract permissions; native assets like Bitcoin do not have an issuer who can stop coins in the same way.
This is not a minor technical difference. It determines which funds can be immediately restricted from circulation after an incident, which rely more on continuous tracking, and the collaborative handling when funds pass through related platforms.
Therefore, "having found the address" and "being able to control the funds" can be far apart. On-chain records are public and can help with tracking, but they do not automatically grant anyone the right to take back the assets.
I think the most valuable industry collaboration this time is to connect these different capabilities in a timely manner. What issuers, trading platforms, and investigative agencies can each do needs to be quickly clarified in emergency situations.
At the same time, it should be acknowledged that freezing permissions involve trade-offs. They help respond to theft but mean asset users need to understand what kind of control the issuer holds.
After experiencing large losses, it is easy for everyone to hope that all assets can be recovered with one click. Reality is not that simple. Understanding the permission structure of the asset itself is part of assessing security mechanisms and can reduce unrealistic expectations about recovery progress.
#加密行业协同守护资产安全 This week’s nonfarm payrolls, I’m prepared to pay more attention to a data point that’s often overlooked: average weekly hours worked.
In September, the average weekly hours worked by U.S. private nonfarm employees was 34.4 hours, unchanged from the previous month; average hourly earnings rose by 0.1% month-over-month. Together, these two indicators help assess changes in corporate labor demand and labor income.
When companies adjust demand, layoffs aren’t necessarily the first step. Reducing overtime and shortening shifts can also lower labor input. While headcount may remain stable temporarily, actual workload might change first.
Therefore, even if new jobs increase in October, I won’t immediately conclude that employment is heating up again. If hours worked decline and wage growth remains moderate, corporate demand for labor may not be as strong as the headline suggests.
Another combination is more worrisome: few job gains, but hours and wages remain firm. In that case, the market’s expectation of easing inflationary pressure may require more evidence.
For BTC, these distinctions affect interest rate expectations and risk appetite. The more complex the employment report, the more likely it is to see a rally right after release, then a reversal after reading the details.
I don’t want to rush to label the data in the first minute. The number of new jobs determines how lively the headline is, but hours worked, wages, and revisions make the report gradually complete. Waiting a few seconds isn’t necessarily a disadvantage.
#非农来袭，12月加息会否生变？ Palantir's revenue grew 93% last quarter, and naturally, everyone wants to see even more impressive numbers this time. I will pay special attention to whether existing customers continue to increase their orders.
The company's net dollar retention rate disclosed for the second quarter reached 157%. This metric measures the change in revenue from existing customers over time, taking into account expansions, contractions, and churn. It is very high, indicating that a significant portion of the company's growth comes from customers continuing to scale up their usage.
This is more convincing than just signing up a number of trial customers. Enterprises willing to move from small-scale deployments to more business scenarios will continue to increase their budgets.
However, 157% also raises expectations very high. After customers expand to a certain extent, how many more departments and how much more usage can be added remains to be verified. Strong performance in one quarter does not mean the same expansion rate can be maintained indefinitely.
What I want to see tonight is growth contributed jointly by new customers and expansions from existing customers. This way, the revenue sources are broader, and future performance is easier to assess.
The most frustrating part of a high valuation is that the company's results may still be excellent, but the stock price finds them not surprising enough. I acknowledge Palantir's business momentum and will also pay attention to management's description of demand for the next phase.
If customers are willing to continue allocating real budgets to expand deployments, growth will have a more solid foundation. No matter how impressive the presentation at the release event is, ultimately, it depends on customer renewals and additional orders.
#Palantir财报前瞻：高增长能否支撑高估值 The first financial report of Apple's new CEO is about to be released. I will first remind myself of one thing: the 50.1% gross margin last quarter included about a 2 percentage point boost from tariff refunds.
The same refund also had a positive impact of about $0.11 per share on earnings for that quarter.
Therefore, even if the gross margin declines quarter-over-quarter this time, it cannot be immediately concluded that the iPhone 18's profitability has worsened. First, identify the special factors from last quarter, then look at the product mix, component costs, and supply situation to make a fair judgment.
Conversely, if earnings per share continue to grow, it is also necessary to see whether the growth comes from sales performance or other financial factors. The new product launch season is lively, but changes in the financial statements are not necessarily directly related to the new products.
My expectation for Apple is that it can clearly explain its profit performance: how much better the high-end products sold, how much cost increases offset, and what pressures remain for the next quarter.
After Tim Cook took over, the market will definitely amplify every number. But using the level boosted by refunds last quarter to demand the new quarter to replicate it exactly is somewhat harsh.
This financial report is worth staying up late to read, provided the right comparison baseline is used. Otherwise, as soon as the report comes out, emotions will run their course first, and the final debate may only be about an unadjusted baseline.
#苹果新CEO迎来iPhone18首份成绩单 For this US midterm election, I will separately consider the control of Congress and the support votes for crypto legislation.
The crypto industry has already invested a lot of money in this election cycle. Among the House candidates supported by Fairshake, there are members from both parties. It aims to secure a group of legislators who are willing to promote digital asset legislation and can stay in Congress long-term.
This detail is quite realistic. The president can express support, regulatory agencies can adjust enforcement methods, but when companies truly make long-term investments, they still hope the rules can be written into law to reduce the risk of policy swings after elections.
So, besides who takes the House and who controls the Senate, I will also look at whether key legislators can be re-elected and whether industry supporters can maintain enough bipartisan cooperation space.
Of course, supporting crypto does not mean all issues can reach consensus. How to regulate trading platforms and how stablecoins operate involve different interests, and specific provisions still need negotiation.
I have expectations for this election, but I don’t want to directly translate the results into the next BTC candlestick.
Elections determine who has the power to push the agenda afterward; from scheduling to passing bills, it still takes time.
The industry has spent so much money; what’s ultimately worth testing is whether the rules have become clearer and whether companies and users can get more stable expectations. Short-term cheers are easy; long-term fulfillment is hard work.
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ The entire network liquidated $60 million in shorts! Is this a reversal or a bull trap?
Just finished reviewing the latest data, the conclusion is straightforward: this is a typical "liquidity hunt," don't rush to chase the highs
Data doesn't lie
$BTC 24h liquidations $40.43 million, shorts account for as much as 83%
$ETH 24h liquidations $34.87 million, shorts nearly 70%
This indicates that the current upward momentum mainly comes from short stop-losses, not large spot buy orders. The price has returned, but the leverage hasn't; this kind of "false rally" is most easily reversed to harvest profits.
Technical risks
ETH funding rates have recently shown frequent negative spikes, which is the main players using sentiment to lure shorts. Although shorts were blasted in the short term, the heavy resistance zones remain at 82000 (BTC) and 2400 (ETH). As long as the open interest does not significantly support the rise, this is just testing the upper boundary of the consolidation range, not a breakout
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ #PalantirQ3Valuation Palantir heads into its Q3 report with one of the most debated valuations in tech.
The stock closed at a record $209.05 on October 9, and its forward P/E climbed to roughly 110, up from about 74 at the end of June. Management guided Q3 revenue to $2.160–2.164 billion, and the company has beaten earnings estimates nine times running.
Great execution is already priced in, so the real question is how much room is left for the multiple to hold. There's something I never quite understood: a company loudly announces "the debt has been repaid early," which sounds solid, but in the same announcement, the money for buying coins actually increased.
Metaplanet is exactly like this. They repaid early the 8 billion yen 20th tranche bond to EVO FUND, and at the same time changed the fundraising purpose, turning the original 8 billion yen for debt repayment into buying Bitcoin, increasing this amount from 25.422 billion yen to 33.422 billion yen.
The debt was truly repaid, but the money never left the table, it just switched pockets.
Those waiting for it to deleverage its $BTC shorts might be waiting in vain.A Japanese company did two seemingly contradictory things at the same time: it fully repaid an 8 billion yen bond early, and at the same time redirected the entire 8 billion yen to buy Bitcoin.
Metaplanet announced that the principal of the 20th bond issued to EVO FUND, amounting to 8 billion yen, was fully repaid early; meanwhile, the fundraising purpose of the 27th stock acquisition rights was adjusted, reallocating the originally debt-repayment 8 billion yen to Bitcoin purchases, increasing the planned amount from 25.422 billion to 33.422 billion yen. The revenue business remains at 3.714 billion.
Three numbers tell one story: the intensity of buying coins has not decreased, only the identity of the funds has changed. The only real new addition is 8 billion yen; the remaining 25.422 billion yen is from the existing pool.
The risk bearers have therefore changed. Bonds require principal and interest repayment; even if the coin price falls, repayment is still required. Stock acquisition rights do not require principal repayment; losses are borne by shareholders. Debt obligations have been converted into shareholder equity, making the balance sheet lighter, but the volatility of $BTC directly impacts the shareholders.
At least one effect on the market: the coins bought by such companies do not easily flow back, effectively continuously removing circulating supply. 8 billion yen alone may not seem large, but the "issuing stock to buy coins" model has been repeatedly replicated.
What really needs attention is the other side: as the balance sheet increasingly resembles a BTC ETF, the financing ability follows the coin price. If the coin price drops, no one will exercise the acquisition rights, and the cycle will stall. Right now, the wind is favorable, so it looks like a perpetual motion machine.$ETH ETH 2,280 Repeated Testing: Can Whale Bottom-Fishing and Institutional Expectations Trigger a Rebound?
ETH today repeatedly tested the $2,280–2,300 range. Although the medium-term trend remains weak, several short-term bullish signals are worth noting.
The core driving force comes from concentrated buying by on-chain whales. According to Lookonchain monitoring, in the past few hours, a whale spent $62.97 million to buy 27,553 ETH at an average price of $2,286. Another address accumulated about 18,600 ETH within two hours, valued at over $42.4 million. Large-scale accumulation by whales at the current level is usually seen as recognition of a short-term bottom, and the fast buying pace carries certain institutional behavior characteristics.
Institutional entry expectations provide additional catalysts. The Moscow Exchange plans to launch regulated ETH trading on December 1, and this expectation formed sentiment support during today's session. Meanwhile, Binance resumed withdrawal functions after a security incident, alleviating some operational concerns.
Risks: Still in a downtrend channel, funding rate is negative; resistance from moving averages at 2320–2350, without a volume breakout it is only a short-term correction.
Strategy: Light long positions at 2280, stop loss below 2200; target 2350, breakout target 2400. Exit if volume breaks below 2200.
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ #苹果新CEO迎来iPhone18首份成绩单 Apple is very likely to "exceed expectations" this time, but this earnings report may still be considered a failure.
Wall Street expects Q4 revenue of about $113.4 billion and EPS of $1.99. In the past eight quarters, Apple’s revenue and EPS have all beaten expectations, so "beating" itself is nothing new. The options market only prices in about ±4% volatility, which also indicates no one is really betting on a crash. The problem is: the market has already priced the "beat" into a 37x forward PE.
What’s more dangerous is the structure. Last quarter’s gross margin was 50.1%, including about 2 points of tariff refunds; Q4 guidance is 47%–48%, also including about 1 point of refunds. Excluding one-time benefits, the real gross margin isn’t that attractive. Storage chips have had capacity pulled away by AI data centers, and DRAM and NAND price increases are structural; service growth has slowed to about 10%, and services are the core of the high valuation narrative. Greater China’s Q3 was below expectations, with May iPhone sales in China down 19% year-over-year, and Apple Intelligence has yet to be implemented.
So the controversy isn’t about "whether it can beat," but about how much of a beat counts as a beat. If it’s just EPS 2.01 and revenue $114 billion, the stock price may not give credit—last quarter it beat both expectations, but services and Greater China were below expectations, and the stock fell more than 8% after hours. The market’s attitude toward Apple has changed: beating expectations is expected; the question is what you will beat next quarter with. The entire network liquidated $60 million in shorts! Is this a reversal or a bull trap?
Just finished reviewing the latest data, and the conclusion is straightforward: this is a typical "liquidity hunt," so don't rush to chase the highs.
📊 Data doesn't lie
BTC 24h liquidations hit $40.43 million, with shorts accounting for as much as 83%
ETH 24h liquidations hit $34.87 million, with shorts nearly 70%
This indicates that the current upward momentum mainly comes from short stop-losses rather than large spot buying. The price has returned, but the leverage hasn't; this kind of "false rally" is most easily reversed to harvest profits.
⚠️ Technical risks
ETH funding rates have recently shown frequent negative spikes, indicating that the main players are using sentiment to lure shorts. Although shorts were blasted in the short term, the heavy resistance zones remain at 82000 (BTC) and 2400 (ETH). As long as open interest does not significantly support the rise, this is merely testing the upper boundary of a consolidation range, not a breakout.
💡 Practical trading strategy
1. Do not chase the rally: Since shorts have been cleared, entering longs now has a very poor risk-reward ratio.
2. Watch key levels closely: Wait for hourly-level pullbacks. If BTC can hold 78k without breaking and ETH stabilizes above 2250, that will be a safe entry point for longs.
3. Beware of bull traps: If there is a spike followed by a long upper wick, decisively reverse to short $BTC $ETH 20261102
1. After the Federal Reserve meeting, the interest rate remained unchanged at 3.75% to 4%
1. The cost of borrowing money between banks hasn't dropped a bit this month. Your mortgage, car loan, and credit card interest rates are all tied to this number. If it doesn't move, your monthly payments won't either.
2. The vote was 10 to 2; two people wanted to change it but didn't succeed. It seems that two out of ten think the interest rate isn't high enough. Missing by two votes still counts, indicating some are already uneasy. Let's see how those two votes change next meeting.
3. Those betting are more anxious, pricing it at 87%: one more hike in December. This means about nine out of ten believe it, so Bitcoin didn't dare to rise and got stuck.
4. 80,000 is not the defense line; 81,500 is. That's the average cost of U.S. spot ETF buyers, the average price of that batch of funds buying coins. No need for anyone to shout when there's a loss; they will sell themselves. The more it falls, the more they sell, and the faster it rolls.
5. Even Fed's Waller admitted that credit is tightening, money is getting more expensive, borrowing is getting harder and pricier, and even AI investments are being suppressed.
6. Inflation and employment data are poor; look further down at 75,800.
2. Miners are starting to lose money, but machines keep increasing
1. Bitcoin mining difficulty rose again by 5.54% last night, twice in half a month. Difficulty rising means more machines are competing for the same cake.
2. The income from the same machine dropped by more than 10% in half a month. Now, an old mining machine earns $33 a day, electricity costs $36, running it results in a $3 loss.
3. But the total network hashrate is still rising, only 6% away from the historical high. To put it bluntlyNovember 2nd Crypto Market Evening Report
$BTC holds at 78,000, but it's actually a "limping rebound"
BTC slowly climbed back from the morning low of 76,400 to around 78,100, and ETH followed to about 2,270.
On the surface, it looks like a third consecutive day of gains, but if you look closely, $SOL is still stuck around 94, unable to rise. This rebound feels like BTC is carrying it alone, not a broad market recovery.
In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $102 million, with 42,900 people taken out, 67.4% of whom were long positions. The most painful is SOL, with $4.12 million liquidated, 91.7% of which were longs—those chasing the rebound on the dip got buried.
Whales dumped $62.97 million in the past 5 hours, buying over 27,000 ETH at an average price of 2,286. Including the previous two hours, whales have spent over $100 million buying $ETH today alone.
ETF funds showed divergence during the day: morning data showed BTC ETF net inflow of $75.4 million and ETH net outflow of $37.4 million, but on Friday overall BTC saw an outflow of $643 million and ETH an outflow of $156 million—a "major hemorrhage".
Institutions are pulling out short-term, whales are accumulating; both sides are completely out of sync.
Whales are quietly accumulating, ETFs are wavering, and the macro election and non-farm payrolls are just ahead. Chasing the rebound here risks buying halfway up the mountain; following whales to slowly pick up above 2,200 offers a more comfortable risk-reward.25.269 billion yen, I first take this repurchase expenditure and divide it by the authorized limit of 60 billion yen, already using more than 40%, it's real money, not just verbal statements. The announcement said Metaplanet repurchased 96,447,400 common shares from October 14 to 31, with a planned limit of 200 million shares, valid until October 13, 2027.
I think this news is more useful for those researching company stocks than for those who only look at Bitcoin trends. The money spent on repurchases does not equal new Bitcoin purchases; you can't just see the words "Bitcoin treasury company" and directly count it as a positive for the coin price. I am used to looking at these two accounts separately.
The trade-off between stability and risk depends on how cash is used. If the repurchase price is reasonable, it may improve capital efficiency, which is my speculation; but the cash spent also means less flexibility in allocation. Just knowing the repurchase amount doesn't tell you if it's cost-effective; I want to see the company's cash arrangements and how the repurchased shares are handled afterward.
My choice is to be a bit more cautious: treat it as a clue to observe capital allocation, not as a reason to chase market sentiment. If the repurchase is strong, I will pay more attention but won't automatically give it extra credit. If you were evaluating such a company, would you prefer to use cash for repurchases or keep it to handle volatility? Are you seeking stability, or are you willing to take that risk? A set of long and short combinations to see through the big players' strategy, ETH becomes the main profit driver, ZEC short positions wait for a pullback opportunity
Latest monitoring of this big player's perpetual contract positions shows a portfolio of BTC long + ETH long + ZEC short, with a total position value of 25,198,300 U. The profit and loss differentiation among the assets is very clear, with a well-defined long-short hedging layout.
📊 Complete position breakdown
✅ BTC Long｜29X full position
Holding: 4.6 BTC, position value 358,100 U
Entry price: 75,214.6 U
Unrealized profit: +12,300 U
Funding fee: -273,100 U
Margin: 12,300 U
✅ ETH Long｜25X full position
Holding: 10,000 ETH, position value 22,847,000 U
Entry price: 1,765.8 U
Unrealized profit: +5,188,900 U
Funding fee: -686,100 U
Margin: 913,900 U
Liquidation price: 1720.82
✅ ZEC Short｜10X full position
Holding: -1,600 ZEC, position value 1,993,100 U
Entry price: 660.6406 U
Unrealized loss: -936,100 U
Funding fee income: +50,700 U
Margin: 199,300 U
Liquidation price: 4535.01 If Monday's Asian session rebound is just an emotional repair, then the real test is actually in the latter half of the day. - At this position, is everyone scrambling to buy the rebound or reducing their holdings? I was a bit nervous watching the market this morning because BTC bounced from 76300 to 78145, with contracts rising 1.5%, but after Binance reopened withdrawals over the weekend, there was a net outflow of 3.64 billion USD. Looking at this combination, the market is actually trading on "not crashing" rather than "turning strong"✨. In other words, Asian funds are willing to catch a dip during Monday daytime, but whether they are willing to stay above 78000 afterward is the key to the rhythm. If it doesn't hold here, short-term bulls can easily shift from active to passive. Conversely, if volume picks up in the latter half, short sellers covering their positions could push sentiment further. The cross-market linkage is even more subtle. OKB has fallen for three consecutive days from 113.69 to 111. OKX is cooperating with ICE and Trade.xyz to promote the compliance of perpetual contracts. The narrative itself is significant, but the market hasn't responded well. My understanding is that platform tokens are now being pulled by two forces: on one side, the mid-to-long-term prospects brought by compliance; on the other, the risk discount across centralized exchanges after the Binance incident. It doesn't follow BTC but follows "exchange trust," and this distinction is very important. Looking at RE at 0.37, with only 530,000 in volume and the smallest market cap. Normally, after an exchange incident, on-chain insurance should be discussed, but it has barely reacted. This is notSevere market divergence! Institutional funds continue to flee, coin prices rebound against the trend, and the current market is all about competition for existing funds
The biggest trap in the market recently: although the overall market seems to be warming and recovering, Wall Street funds are not buying in at all, ETFs continue to flow out, and mainstream coins' rise lacks incremental support.
Even more absurd is CELO, whose on-chain ecosystem continuously generates revenue and monthly income, yet the coin price completely ignores the overall market rhythm, making it difficult to reverse the weak trend
$BTC: 78197, 24h +0.43%
The market has slightly rebounded, but the capital side is extremely weak, with a single-day ETF net outflow of 643 million, directly wiping out all inflows from the previous four days. Without institutional increments, the 78000 level is only temporary support and could change again at any time
$ETH: 2286, 24h +0.92%
More resistant to decline than BTC, short-term sentiment is relatively strong, but the capital side remains under pressure. ETFs have flowed out for five consecutive days, with a cumulative withdrawal of 431 million. Without breaking the 2300 resistance, all rebounds can only be seen as repairs
$CELO: 0.07384, 24h -1.10%
A typical divergence between fundamentals and market performance! On-chain fees generated 129,600 USD in October, with 1.22 million CELO credited to the community fund, and the ecosystem's real income continues to accumulate.
However, secondary market selling pressure is stubborn; no matter how good the fundamentals are, without capital relay, the price still cannot rise.
BTC lacks institutional inflows, ETH lacks capital support, CELO lacks sentiment fermentation.
#Palantir财报前瞻：高增长能否支撑高估值 The current market looks like a “recovery” for $BTC $ETH
But it actually feels more like a “bloody probe” 🩸
Breaking down the word “recovery,” the truth is often harsh:
1. Price recovery is a fragile “illusion”
BTC is repeatedly testing around 78,000, ETH barely holding above 2,270
The real test is overhead: BTC at 82,000 and ETH at 2,400 (exactly the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, a critical battleground for bulls and bears).
The key data: nearly $930 million in leveraged positions were liquidated in the past 24 hours.
Got it? The driving force behind this rally isn’t strong spot buying but short covering.
The conclusion is painful: prices have returned, but market confidence (leverage) has not. The structure is far from repaired.
2. ETH’s recovery is happening beyond the candlesticks
Although the market is volatile, $ETH is undergoing a “rebirth.”
The Fusaka upgrade has landed, PeerDAS cuts validator bandwidth load by 87.5%, and Layer 2 data capacity has expanded 2.3 times. This isn’t hype; it’s a substantive repair of the underlying scalability.
At this stage, “recovery” does not equal “reversal.”
The market is just using the short squeeze opportunity to reinforce the foundation before the next major trend emerges.
Short term: Beware of selling pressure at 82,000 and 2,400; don’t chase the highs blindly.
Long term: Focus on the actual data after ETH ecosystem scaling.$AKE
0.0059. AKE dropped another 35% today, sliding down from 0.035 on October 24, about 96% off its all-time high of 0.1467.
It was still at 0.0088 at 10 AM, then plunged to 0.00526 by 4 PM, losing 40% in six hours. This isn’t a gradual decline; it’s being smashed down candle by candle.
Here’s what happened: On October 21, 2.1 billion tokens were just unlocked, worth $63 million at the time, with a total circulation of 22.8 billion tokens. The AI sector has been bleeding overall these days, and this token always ranks near the top of the biggest losers.
The end of the session was interesting. Hourly volume shrank from 19 million tokens to 1.3 million, while the price climbed back from 0.00526 to 0.00591. When it was falling, it was crowded; on the rebound, no one followed.
I won’t touch this kind of token. Zero fees, thin order book, a single 5-minute candlestick can wipe out half your position stop loss. If you want to catch a bottom, first see if it can hold above 0.006 for three days.
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ #Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？
🔥 The stablecoin sector is heating up, but companies that truly make money may not necessarily take off along with market expectations!
Circle (CRCL) will release its Q3 2026 earnings report on November 4. This time, the market's main focus isn't how popular USDC is, but how much real cash it can bring to Circle.
Key points to watch:
1️⃣ USDC scale: Can the stablecoin circulation continue to grow?
2️⃣ Profitability: Will interest rate changes, reserve yields, and distribution costs squeeze profits?
3️⃣ Ecosystem expansion: Can Arc and the payment network truly create new revenue streams?
⚠️ My view:
The long-term story of stablecoins is indeed huge, but in the end, the market pays for profits.
USDC growth does not equal simultaneous profit growth for Circle. If revenue growth can't keep up with costs, or if market expectations are too high, even a good earnings report might lead to profit-taking.
For this earnings report, which side are you more optimistic about?
🚀 A: Stablecoin explosion, CRCL continues to rise
📉 B: Growth is good, but high expectations are already priced in
👀 C: Wait and see, wait for the earnings report to land
See you in the comments to see who can guess the market's next move!
#Circle #CRCL #USDC #stablecoin #cryptocurrency #OKX$BTC
I don't think this wave is the start of a dump; it looks more like someone is rotating holdings.
After Binance resumed withdrawals, there was a net outflow of $4.911 billion in 24 hours. When I saw this number, I thought it would break downwards, but BTC is now at 77883, down 0.07% in 24 hours, with a daily amplitude of 1.6%, and the lowest point at 77555 didn't even touch 77000.
On the other side, buying is happening. Metaplanet repaid 8 billion yen of debt early and changed the fundraising purpose to buying Bitcoin; Coinbase's treasury holdings increased to 18,000 coins.
One side is withdrawing, the other is receiving. The perpetual fee rate is +0.004%, basically zero, with $2.6 billion in open positions unchanged for a day, no added leverage or exits.
My interpretation: the $4.9 billion is withdrawals, not liquidation. The money is moving to self-custody, the coins are still held, just moved to a different address to rest. What to really worry about is exchange balances dropping while on-chain funds flow back to exchanges, but now it's the opposite.
The 77500 to 78800 range has been stuck for four days. Whoever moves first will speak.
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ $NEAR NEAR's fundamentals are really terrible
They can't even pay out the $250,000 AI hackathon prize in cash, relying entirely on printing their own tokens
The protocol revenue is only $760,000 per month, yet they inflate and print $13 million worth of tokens monthly
The funniest part is the so-called buyback, where tokens bought back are directly stored in the project's own account, not destroyed at all
Printing money with the left hand and stocking it with the right, where is the deflation?
Big holders on-chain are also moving their tokens to exchanges, how can this selling pressure be sustained?
Every rebound at the 4.4 level is just bulls handing money to the bears
#NEAR
$NEAR
👇$HYPE New York Stock Exchange parent company is using the $HYPE framework to do compliant perpetuals in the US, this move is definitely not a small matter.
Looking at the order book is the most intuitive: as soon as the news came out, a whale immediately stopped losses and closed a $3 million short position, then turned around and smashed in over $2.6 million long positions.
Binance whales' long-short ratio has been pulled up to 2.28, clearly showing the main force is aggressively accumulating.
The dealer's operation this time is to use old money as backing to forcibly pump the price, turning the shorts directly into nourishment.
#HYPE
$HYPE
👇Bitcoin shows a signal worth watching: spot buying is weak, but leveraged funds are still increasing!
On November 2, the latest market data shows that as of October 31, the Coinbase Bitcoin premium index has dropped to -0.2037, with a premium gap of -158 and a Z-score of -2.76. Simply put, the buying demand in the Coinbase-related spot market may be weakening, and the market's support is not very strong.
On the other hand, the BTC funding rate on exchanges has risen to 0.0100, up 123.6% compared to the past 30 days. This indicates that leveraged trading remains active, and the position battles between bulls and bears have not cooled down. Meanwhile, the open interest (OI) on exchanges has actually decreased by 1.5% compared to a month ago.
Looking at these indicators together, the market shows a notable divergence: spot buying is weak, contract funding rates are high, but the overall open interest size has not expanded significantly. This does not necessarily mean the market will drop immediately, but it suggests that the current upward momentum may not be solid. If spot demand fails to recover promptly while leveraged trading remains overheated, the market is prone to rapid fluctuations and may even trigger bidirectional liquidations.
Looking at the macro environment, the U.S. released GDP and PCE data on October 29 at 3.40% and 3.65%, respectively. Over the past 90 trading sessions, the correlation between Bitcoin and the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has#BTC continues to face pressure, with divergences between capital and market trends
"BTC oscillates around eighty thousand: spot selling pressure and miner costs"
BTC has dropped about 7.3% cumulatively in October, fluctuating between 77,000 and 80,000 USD in recent days.
The US spot ETF saw a net outflow of 643 million USD on October 30, and Coinbase premium has remained negative for 38 consecutive days.
Miners' total revenue in October was 1.215 billion USD, but revenue per unit of hash rate dropped by 17.5%, with electricity costs and depreciation tightening profits. $BTC Recovered 70% of stolen assets, a rare case of "real recovery" in this round of security incidents.
b14g reports Core network recovery progress: The network has recovered about 68.15 million CORE through a hard fork from three attacker-controlled addresses, accounting for 70.2% of the approximately 97.05 million affected CORE in the October 31 incident.
Rewriting the ledger via hard fork to recover assets indicates that block production and governance rights are sufficiently centralized to save assets, which also means decentralization must yield to security; about 28.9 million CORE remain in circulation, and until the attacker addresses and liquidation paths are resolved, selling pressure expectations and trust fractures persist.
Observation scenario one: On-chain activity rebounds after the fork, exchanges clearly recover and handle assets, and the recovery narrative continues. Observation scenario two: No progress on the whereabouts of the remaining stolen funds, and after emotional release, CORE is more likely to return to the overall market rhythm.
Are you more concerned about on-chain activity or the whereabouts of the remaining stolen funds?
Source: Wu ShuoStrength differentiation is more worth watching than price rises and falls.
On Monday morning in Asia, CoinDesk data: ZEC led the mainstream with about a 3% increase, reaching nearly $1280; ETH and BNB each rose nearly 2%; SOL was almost flat, around $95. BTC has risen for the third consecutive day, reaching about 77,600 on Sunday night, then pulled back above 78,500 within a few hours.
Why it matters: In the rebound after major events, where the money flows explains sentiment better than how much the index has risen—within the same market, some are rushing in while others are sitting back and relaxing.
One day's ranking ≠ trend, falling behind for a day ≠ being abandoned, more likely just different rotation rhythms.
Confidence level: Medium | Source: Media summary of CoinDesk market data, not on-chain.
Are you recently focusing on the leaders or the laggards? Share in the comments, come chat often.
$ZEC $SOL $BTC The A-shares surged today with a volume reaching 1.8 trillion, nearly 4,700 stocks rose, and the media sector alone absorbed 11.7 billion in main funds. The short drama and gaming index soared nearly 8%, and Guomai Culture hit the 20CM limit in 7 minutes.
Moutai also recovered, with food and beverage following, attracting over 5 billion, and the computer sector took in 10.5 billion. Money is really pouring in.
The Hong Kong stock index looks okay, with the Hang Seng Tech in the green, but southbound funds fled 4.469 billion again, marking the 14th consecutive day of net selling. Xiaomi alone was hammered by 1.8 billion.
The redder the index, the more money slips away; this is even more exhausting than a one-sided drop.
In the crypto world, Binance just resumed withdrawals after a hack, $BTC barely holds at 78,000, RSI is only 39, and the fear index is 37, still lingering in the fear zone.
$ETH is back near 2,270, but ETFs have seen net outflows for 23 consecutive days. Whales distributed 160,000 tokens around 2,400, suppressing the price heavily.
Interestingly, some whales are selling BTC to buy ETH, selling over 1,300 BTC in four days and turning around to buy 43,000 ETH, moving funds internally.
A-shares are chasing stories with volume, Hong Kong stocks are rising while retreating, and crypto is quietly rotating positions in a weak rebound. The money in these three markets is thinking about completely different things.$ETH and BTC have rebounded back to 78,000, with ETH barely holding at 2,280, while NEAR has dropped over 6%. Prices are beginning to recover, but the signals from the derivatives market are far less optimistic.
After reviewing the capital data, a key divergence was found: mainstream coins are trying to stabilize, but NEAR is still experiencing leveraged fund withdrawals.
$BTC is around $78,003. In the most recent trading day, spot ETF net outflows reached $643 million, with IBIT outflows at $234 million. The inflows from the previous four consecutive days were offset by a single day of outflows. 77,000 is the support line below, and 78,500 is the short-term breakout level to watch.
$ETH is around $2,285. Spot ETFs have seen outflows for five consecutive trading days, totaling about $431 million, yet the price remains relatively resilient. The area near 2,250 is worth monitoring; if it breaks, 2,200 may be tested again. On the upside, 2,300 remains the target.
$NEAR is around $4.11, down 6.61% in 24 hours. The open interest across seven exchanges is about $854 million, down 5.83% in 24 hours; liquidations during the same period were at least $2.75 million, with about $2.39 million from the bullish side. If the $4 level continues to break, short-term pressure may increase.
In short: BTC is still digesting ETF outflows, ETH maintains its structure through relative strength, but NEAR is undergoing a more pronounced leveraged liquidation. Before prices rebound, watch whose selling pressure truly eases first.
#Apple's new CEO receives the first performance report for iPhone 18 $BTC Bearish: Tomorrow is the US midterm election. In the past three elections, BTC had not yet bottomed out after the vote.
BTC is currently at 77,982, basically flat over 24 hours, with today's low at 77,600.
Looking back, the cycle lows in 2014, 2018, and 2022 appeared 71 days, 39 days, and 13 days after the midterm elections respectively. In 2022, just a few days after the election, the FTX crash occurred.
This time, Polymarket gives the Democrats a 72% chance of taking both the House and Senate, with over $51 million wagered. The CLARITY market structure bill is already stuck, and it will only be harder to advance after Congress changes hands.
Leverage has not cooled down yet. OKEx BTC contract long accounts account for 69.1%, with positions totaling $2.61 billion. Once expectations deviate, the clustered long positions are prone to cascading liquidations.
On the same day, Binance also has to submit delayed proof of reserves.
There are only three historical samples. BTC has averaged over 50% gains in the 12 months following the election, but the pressure in the coming weeks is more immediate.
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ I casually posted something at the time and didn't expect it to get a bit of attention.
This amount of traffic is insignificant to the big players, but looking back, it still feels quite meaningful.
Let me talk about a few leveraged targets I've been watching:
$SNXX: 2x long SanDisk
$xKORU: 3x long Korean ETH
$SOXL: 3x long semiconductors
All of these are currently in low price ranges, with logic completely different from altcoins.
In August, the Korean index was circuit-broken, and $KORU dropped to around 11 at its lowest.
I initially opened a long position around 17, adding 10 units every time it dropped 1-2 dollars during the decline, gradually lowering the cost to 15.5, accumulating a total of 45 units.
Unfortunately, I didn't hold on; I closed the position at break-even and exited. Later, it surged all the way to 25, definitely missing out, which is quite regrettable.
Comparing SNXX to SNDK's price in August, it has already corrected deeply. I am optimistic about it in the mid to long term.
The only trouble is the relatively high funding fee for long positions. I originally planned to set up a long grid, but it didn't play out as expected.
Also, SOXL, the 3x semiconductor, has seen a similarly dramatic drop, from a high near 300 down to around 80 now, leaving considerable room for imagination going forward.
All the ones I share are varieties I've personally traded with light positions, practicing good risk control and avoiding blindly heavy bets.Iran shouts: That's all my money! My money!
Iran ended the negotiations in Doha, still proposing the seven-step plan put forward in September. I feel it's basically the memorandum of understanding's demand segment, basically requiring an end to the maritime blockade on Iran, oil export sanctions, release of frozen assets, and repayment to reach a final agreement. Then the Strait of Hormuz can be reopened to ensure safe navigation.
Now Trump's pre-war intimidation has taken effect, fearing that after the midterm elections Trump will really strike the Gulf countries, so everyone is urging peace, urging hard, only Iran and Trump are rolling up their sleeves to fight.
It seems Iran's two-day plan is a bit difficult.
In the Doha talks, Qatar proposed a 7-day confidence-building plan, but no one cared. This time the talks failed, and everyone went back home to draft new agreements.
Iran wants everything: money + nuclear power + authority = status.
The US only wants to give money.
That's probably how it is.
Iran: No, no, I want it, if you don't give it to me, I'll make trouble.
US: Behave, or I'll hit you.
Iran: Stand ready.
Gulf countries: Damn, don't fight, we desperately want stability.
Crude oil won't fall much for now, the 103 crude oil short positions at 99 are all closed, waiting for a rebound to 103-105 to short again. Those who haven't traded crude can place short orders.The numbers on the liquidation map are not predictions
$BTC is around 77873, with a bunch of positions waiting to be forcibly liquidated within the next two days both up and down.
How this number is calculated:
Trading platforms count how many leveraged positions are placed at each price level.
When the price reaches that level, the system has to forcibly close a batch.
Upwards, 79266 is the concentrated area of short positions; downwards, 76165 is the concentrated area of long positions.
Common misinterpretation:
This does not mean someone is waiting at those price levels to dump or pump the market.
It’s the system itself that will act there.
The price is only 2.19% away from the lower long position zone, with a scale of 100 million.
Upwards, 1.79% away is the short position zone, with 67.89 million.
Both sides are close, so the probability of sweeping back and forth is high.
Those truly liquidated are the ones who placed stop losses at the edges of the range.
#BTC持续承压，资金与市场走势出现分歧
#$BTC The A-shares market surged today with a volume reaching 1.8 trillion, nearly 4,700 stocks rose, and the media sector alone absorbed 11.7 billion in main funds. The short drama and gaming index soared nearly 8%, and Guomai Culture hit the 20CM limit in 7 minutes.
Moutai also recovered, with food and beverage following up with over 5 billion, and the computer sector took in 10.5 billion. Money is really pouring in.
The Hong Kong stock index looks decent, with the Hang Seng Tech in the green, but southbound funds fled 4.469 billion, marking the 14th consecutive day of net selling. Xiaomi alone was hammered for 1.8 billion.
The redder the index, the more money slips away; this is even more exhausting than a one-sided drop.
In the crypto space, Binance just resumed withdrawals after a hack, $BTC barely holds at 78,000, RSI is only 39, and the fear index is 37, still lingering in the fear zone.
$ETH is back near 2,270, but ETFs have seen net outflows for 23 consecutive days. Whales distributed 160,000 tokens around 2,400, suppressing the price.
Interestingly, some whales are selling BTC to buy ETH, selling over 1,300 BTC in four days and turning around to buy 43,000 ETH, moving funds internally.
A-shares are chasing stories with volume, Hong Kong stocks are rising while retreating, and crypto is quietly rotating positions in a weak rebound. The money in these three markets is thinking about completely different things. I came across a post: A Japanese company spent 25.3 billion yen to buy back 96.45 million of its own shares. My first reaction was pretty basic—why not just buy Bitcoin directly with that money?
Then I realized, they’ve already been hoarding coins for a long time, so they’re not really short on positions. What they’re buying now is their own shares, which effectively means each remaining share gets more coins. It’s like the same pot of rice, but fewer people to eat it.
Whether $BTC goes up or not is another matter, but they’ve already tightened their chips first. We’re still calculating when we can break even, while they’re already counting how many coins each share contains. That’s the difference.Recalling the past of Gongjin, when Xiao Qiao had just married, heroic and spirited, with a feather fan and silk kerchief! People are full of vigor when they are successful. At that time, many asked me, teacher, teacher, to guide them, wondering if I could predict the future trend of $BTC.
I was also disdainful of the market, making bold comments and daring predictions that $BTC would fall below 55,000. By the end of August, I was certain that crypto would weaken, betting on a hard landing of the US economy. I even declared that a black swan would appear in October. But reality slapped me in the face, the trend went the opposite way, and I happily faced liquidation!
The fact is I overestimated myself, oversimplified the market, and underestimated $BTC. My total account return was -81.34%, assets left at $0.01, single drawdown -99.98%, the cost of full leveraged positions was too painful. If I had even a bit of respect for the market, I wouldn't have ended up like this, sigh!
Currently, $BTC is still consolidating near 78,000 with low volume, ETFs continue large outflows, non-farm payrolls are coming, December rate hikes are uncertain, and the macro shoe has not dropped. This rebound is all a trap; avoid getting carried away with leverage.
With non-farm payrolls approaching, will the December rate hike change? $BTC $ETH $ZEC From October 14 to 31, Metaplanet repurchased 96.45 million of its own common shares, spending approximately ¥25.3 billion in total. Many people glanced at this news and dismissed it as mere stock price management. But viewed within the group of Bitcoin treasury companies, the direction of the move has changed.
In the past two years, the standard approach for these companies was the opposite: issuing new shares or convertible bonds, converting the raised funds into $BTC, diluting the equity of existing shareholders while increasing the amount of coins on the books. The market priced them at a premium essentially for "being able to continuously leverage to buy coins."
A buyback is the inverse operation of this logic. The ¥25.3 billion was not used to buy coins but to repurchase and cancel or hold 96.45 million shares from the market. The number of coins remained unchanged, but the share capital was reduced, thus passively increasing the amount of Bitcoin per share. The same assets were divided into fewer shares.
This action usually signals that management believes their own stock is undervalued relative to the Bitcoin on the books. Otherwise, a more cost-effective approach would be to continue issuing shares to buy coins—exchanging expensive paper for cheaper coins rather than using cash to buy back cheap paper.
What is truly worth considering is the position in the cycle. Treasury companies switching from "selling shares to buy coins" to "buying shares" often occurs after the premium has converged. Holders of $BTC can treat this as a lagging indicator: when the most aggressive buyers stop expanding share capital, it means cheap money is no longer as readily available. This does not affect short-term prices but influences who will have ammunition in the next round.According to the author's disclosure of liquidation statistics over the past 12 hours, BTC, ETH, and HYPE experienced leveraged liquidations in different directions: the first two mainly saw short liquidations, while HYPE primarily cleared long positions. BTC's total liquidations amounted to 29,948,500, accounting for 32.69%. Among these, long liquidations were 3,402,400, and short liquidations were 26,546,100, with short-side liquidations clearly dominant. ETH's total liquidations were 26,691,700, accounting for 29.14%; long liquidations were 4,328,700, and short liquidations were 22,363,100. Its structure is similar to BTC's, which the author interprets as a large number of low-position shorts being forced out. HYPE's total liquidations were 3,970,600, accounting for 4.33%, but in the opposite direction: long liquidations were 3,551,800, and short liquidations were 418,800. According to this statistic, HYPE seems to be clearing chasing long positions, diverging from BTC and ETH. 💡 My view. The highlight of this data set is not simply comparing which has the larger liquidation amount, but that within the same statistical window, mainstream coins and HYPE cleared positions in opposite directions. The concentrated short liquidations of BTC and ETH indicate short-term bearish pressure but are insufficient alone to confirm a trend reversal; similarly, HYPE's long liquidations cannot directly imply a continued weakening afterward. The key observation points for judging whether this round of volatility will continue are the post-liquidation absorption and whether new leveraged positions will quickly accumulate. Are you more focused on price support after BTC and ETH short liquidations, or on HYPE's movement after long liquidations Seventy percent of the market has priced in a December rate hike; this non-farm payroll is a harvest for Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Once employment exceeds expectations, the rate hike expectation is confirmed, U.S. Treasuries and the dollar rise, Bitcoin faces pressure and breaks its consolidation, while Ethereum's leveraged positions concentrate, causing a crash that will leave BTC behind. Even if the data weakens, don't expect a bull run; core PCE remains high, inflation stickiness is evident, and any rally is just a bull trap.
Bitcoin is now trading sideways in a narrow range with volatility near zero, a buildup before the storm. Bitcoin and Ethereum typically experience two-way spikes, wiping out both longs and shorts, regardless of bullish or bearish news, first shaking out a batch of contracts.
Too many retail investors go all-in early, betting on direction by watching candlesticks, forgetting the Fed's data dependency and the dot plot looming overhead. When the non-farm payroll lands, the consolidation pattern shatters instantly; whether long or short, those without proper risk control can easily get trapped. $BTC $ETH #非农来袭，12月加息会否生变？ 🔷 $NEAR stakers: income may drop by 36%
Voting on HSP-029 closes today. Maximum issuance: 2.5% → 1.6% over 24 months.
Model staking yield: 5.27% → 3.37%. Less dilution for other holders.
Red flag for stakers: rewards will decrease. No result yet, and validator upgrades are still needed.
Who wins: stakers or holders? 👇
DYOR.Let me do some quick math: the number of addresses and the transaction volume should be viewed separately; you can't just conclude the business is dead because "there are fewer users."
Analyst Axel Adler Jr. said that the 30-day average of active $BTC addresses has dropped 43% from the peak in December 2024, but the daily average transactions still exceed 810,000.
I think this alone isn't enough to be bearish: circulation is still happening, but transaction volume doesn't equal the number of participants. I choose to be cautious and not interpret large transaction volumes as a sign of renewed popularity; I'll keep watching if the number of addresses can stabilize.$ETH ETF fund flows have really looked a bit ugly recently😮💨
Last week, the US spot ETH ETF saw net outflows for five consecutive trading days, totaling about $431 million, with BlackRock's ETHA alone seeing $391 million outflows.
Interestingly, Fidelity's FETH was still seeing net inflows during the same period, indicating differing attitudes within institutional channels, but overall redemption pressure is clearly greater.
Comparing with BTC, the ETF had net inflows for the first four trading days, with large outflows only appearing on Friday, while ETH experienced a solid five-day consecutive outflow.
Looking at the market, although ETH has rebounded somewhat from the lows of the past few days, it has yet to recover the previously broken consolidation range.
Personally, I remain cautious on ETH for now:
I will focus on whether ETF fund outflows can be stopped, especially the redemption situation of ETHA.
If funds continue to withdraw, even if prices rebound, I have to question the sustainability of the rebound❓
#波动雷达：币种异动观察 #苹果新CEO迎来iPhone18首份成绩单
A 3.1% growth, but the details are a bit subtle.
Ternus's first earnings report after taking over will be released early tomorrow morning. The global sales of the iPhone 18 Pro series in the first three weeks increased by only 3.1% year-over-year. Counterpoint's own assessment is "mixed feelings." Excluding the Chinese market's +29%, global growth is basically flat; both the US and Japan markets declined, and the reason is straightforward — prices went up, and consumers feel the upgrade isn't worth the price difference.
What’s more troublesome is the product rhythm: the standard iPhone 18 model is delayed until spring 2027, so this year the volume relies entirely on the high-end models, while rising memory costs are squeezing gross margins, which may drop from last quarter's 50.1% to 47%-48%. Ternus comes from a hardware engineering background, so the first report really needs to answer not "how many were sold," but "can the price increase protect profits." 
A 3.1% growth isn’t bad for Apple, but it heavily depends on a single market, and the quality of that growth doesn’t hold up under close scrutiny. At tomorrow’s conference call, how the new CEO explains this structure will be far more important than the 3.1% itself.