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I personally am optimistic about AMD's upcoming earnings report, leaning towards a slight beat of expectations, mainly for three reasons.
First, looking at revenue, the market currently expects about $13.09 billion, while AMD's previous guidance was $13 billion ± $300 million. That means the market expectation hasn't yet reached the upper end of the guidance, so as long as actual delivery is slightly better, there's a chance to exceed expectations.
Second is the data center business. AMD's revenue in this segment mainly comes from EPYC server CPUs and Instinct AI accelerator cards. Many people focus on large AI chip orders, but the growth of server CPUs is also worth noting. Last quarter, data center revenue grew 107% year-over-year, and management expects growth to accelerate further in the second half of the year. I believe this part of the business still has solid support.
Finally, profit margins. Last quarter, revenue grew 13% quarter-over-quarter, non-GAAP expenses only increased by 8%, and operating margin rose from 25% to 27%. This indicates that while revenue grew, expenses did not increase proportionally. If gross margin can remain stable this quarter, the profit side may perform better than revenue.
#AMD財報前瞻：Helios AI系統商業化進展 First, consider the worst-case scenario. Seeing the transaction volume hit a record, my initial reaction is: if transfers are delayed under high load, can those rushing to move funds hold up? This is my stress test, not a statement that the chain has already encountered problems.
According to Lookonchain monitoring, the TRON chain has surpassed 16 billion cumulative transactions, processing an average of 11.56 million transactions daily. My judgment is that this indicates the scale of usage but is still insufficient to prove lower risk, and certainly cannot be directly used as a basis for asset valuation.
⚠️ I will watch two blind spots: the number of transactions does not disclose transaction amounts or user distribution, so it’s impossible to judge whether demand is dispersed; daily average data also doesn’t reveal performance during peak times, so if business is concentrated, the average might mask congestion risks.
What ordinary people can do for risk control is to clearly define in advance the duration of fund occupation and the maximum loss they can bear. I would place these two boundaries ahead of the bustling data.$BTC is oscillating between 77,000 and 78,800. The real short-term watershed lies around 78,600 to 79,500. If it can't break above this range, the current rebound can only be considered a weak recovery.
Why can't it rally? The momentum is still heavy❗️
The funding rate hasn't turned negative yet; the bulls are still paying to hold their positions. Last week, the ETF saw a single-day outflow of $643 million, and spot buyers are on the sidelines.
On one hand, leverage hasn't been fully cleaned out; on the other, new money hasn't come in. The main players won't actively push the price up at this level.
Looking at the liquidation map, the near-term gravity is clearly downward. There's a strong long liquidation zone near 76,090 below, while from 78,056 to 79,569 there is short fuel, but for the price to really rise, it must first absorb the selling pressure around 78,600 to 79,500.
This week's macro schedule is also packed: November 3rd midterm elections, November 6th non-farm payrolls.
My personal view is that $BTC will range between 76,000 and 79,500 in the short term. If it breaks down with volume below 76,000, it will head to the lower liquidation zone.
#BTC持续承压，资金与市场走势出现分歧 $AAVE
Aave has frozen tBTC reserves worth $136 million on Ethereum. My first reaction was that this would hit hard, after all, it involves collateral in the lending pool.
Actual market situation: AAVE dropped from 138 to 132.96, closed at 134.07, down 2.9%. The hourly candle that dropped had a volume of 1,971 tokens, worth a couple hundred thousand dollars; in the following two hours, volume dropped to a fraction, and the price climbed back on its own.
Perpetual positions are only $15.75 million, with a fee rate of +0.01%. No one is panicking, no one is bottom fishing, there’s just no one.
The freeze is to stop the bleeding, not the wound. The problem with tBTC lies with the issuer, not the Aave contract, but the market’s habit of running first can’t be changed. What really needs watching is whether other pools follow by lowering LTV, that would drain liquidity. At this scale, I’m too lazy to adjust my position, maybe I’m just lazy.
#非农来袭，12月加息会否生变？ The morning session was still pushing higher, but OKB turned red directly in the afternoon—Is today's "rebound" a real recovery or just another bull trap?
📉 $BTC (77,953): On the surface, it holds above 78,000, but underneath, leverage is propping it up while spot positions are withdrawing. Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of $643 million in a single day, while derivatives exposure continued to rise. Spot buying can't keep up, so the foundation of the rebound is weak; the lower Bollinger band at 77,300 is the last short-term cover.
🔴 $ETH (2,279): The most divided asset in the market. ETH spot ETFs have had net outflows for 23 consecutive trading days, the longest streak since listing, with traditional funds continuously withdrawing every day. Yet the price stubbornly hasn't broken the previous low, while RSI is only at a weak 34.8. Institutions are selling, the market is holding on—this divergence lasting longer means the eventual breakdown will be even more severe.
🟡 $OKB (112.87): Led the CeFi sector with a 2.72% gain in the morning session but turned red and dropped over 1% in the afternoon. The compliance benefits from OKX partnering with ICE are overwhelming, but under the "front-run and cash out" rhythm, short-term funds have no patience to wait for approvals to finalize; the arrival of good news instead becomes a window for profit-taking. Good news without a price increase is the biggest bad news.
Summary: BTC is propped up by leverage, ETH is holding on through divergence, and OKB is hanging on by its story— all three are barely holding. Which one do you think will break first? Place your bets in the comments👇
#机构持续布局，BTC为何仍承压？ Nonfarm payrolls are about to be released, with the market focus directly on whether the Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates in December. The October FOMC meeting remained on hold, keeping the federal funds rate at 3.75%-4%, but there was a split with two votes in favor of a rate hike, and the statement emphasized the economy's "strong expansion" and persistently high inflation. After the meeting, the market still regarded a 25 basis point rate hike in December as the baseline scenario, with the implied probability once rising above 80%.
The current labor market is in a "low hiring, low layoff" state. The previous nonfarm payrolls (September) increased by only 29,000, significantly below expectations, with the unemployment rate holding near 4.2%. The market expects the upcoming October nonfarm payrolls to be around 60,000, with wage growth being a key observation point. If both new employment and wages are relatively strong, it will reinforce the inflation stickiness logic (especially combined with high oil prices), likely further locking in the probability of a rate hike in December; if employment continues to weaken significantly and wages cool down, it may lower rate hike expectations and provide room for a pause.
Waller has recently expressed a cautious stance, emphasizing the need for more data and has already indicated future adjustments to the frequency of FOMC meetings. In the short term, nonfarm payrolls, subsequent CPI, and oil price trends will jointly determine the December path. For assets, strong nonfarm payrolls benefit the dollar and short-term U.S. Treasury yields, suppressing risk asset resilience; weak nonfarm payrolls may bring a brief respite. It is recommended to focus on the resonance of three indicators: new employment, unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings, rather than a single figure. #非农来袭，12月加息会否生变？ $BTC
From 77600 to 78866, BTC only moved this much in one day today, with a volatility of 1.6%.
South Korea held an emergency meeting, requiring local exchanges to increase the proportion of cold wallets, add reserve funds, and inspect the hot wallet withdrawal approval and signature mechanisms one by one. The cause was Binance's hot wallet holding 6.3 billion.
I originally thought this kind of news would shake the market. But 77987 stuck there, up 0.13% in 24h, perpetual fee rate 0.0086%, open interest 2.6 billion USD, basically unchanged.
Raising the cold wallet ratio really changes the withdrawal speed—the approval for large withdrawals takes time, which can be critical during rapid market moves. I won't guess the direction. With more news like this, the on-chain balance of exchange hot wallets will gradually decrease; watching the data is more useful than watching the price.
#非农来袭，12月加息会否生变？ #Apple's new CEO receives the first report card for iPhone 18 Nonfarm payrolls are coming, will the December rate hike really change? The market roughly still treats the rate hike as the baseline, with a probability between 70% and 80%, but it’s not set in stone. The October meeting was already paused, and some voted against continuing the hike, indicating internal disagreement. Chair Wash hasn’t ruled anything out either, emphasizing that data still needs to be watched.
Last month’s nonfarm was only 29,000, clearly weak, so market expectations this time are low, around 60,000. If this number significantly beats expectations and wages don’t fall, the probability of a rate hike will likely rise again, causing the dollar and short-term US Treasuries to strengthen, and risk assets to suffer more; if there’s another big miss, or even a rise in unemployment, calls to pause in December will quickly grow louder, possibly leading to a short-term breather.
In practice, this kind of data often causes swings both ways. It’s recommended not to heavily bet on direction yet, focusing on three key points: whether new jobs exceed expectations, whether hourly wages cool down, and whether unemployment unexpectedly rises. Also keep a close eye on oil prices and subsequent inflation data, because the rate hike logic is still largely supported by energy prices. Nonfarm payrolls are just a key piece, not the final answer. After the data is released, watch how the market pricing changes—it’s more stable than betting in advance. #非农来袭，12月加息会否生变？ ETH is only $7 away from a whale liquidation! Even more dangerous is that institutional funds are also retreating.
The most concerning aspect of the current market is the simultaneous pressure on leverage risk and spot demand. According to on-chain monitoring data, a whale holding long positions in BTC, ETH, and SOL is currently at an unrealized loss of about $46 million, with an ETH liquidation price around $2253. Based on a snapshot price of $2260, the liquidation threshold is only about 0.3% away. Once triggered, it could amplify short-term selling pressure.
ETF data is also not optimistic: In October, the US spot ETH ETF saw a net outflow of approximately $1.607 billion, with ETHA outflows of $1.421 billion, accounting for about 88%; FETH bucked the trend with a net inflow of $36 million. The BTC spot ETF had a single-day net outflow of $643 million on October 30.
My assessment: For BTC, focus on the battle between $77,000 and $78,000; for ETH, be cautious of liquidation chain reactions; for SOL, wait for improved capital absorption. Whale positions do not equal market bottoms, and ETF outflows do not necessarily mean a market crash. Before the November 6 non-farm payroll release, controlling leverage and waiting for confirmation is more important than blindly bottom-fishing. $BTC #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ $ZEC The bearish side on the $ZEC market has become too lazy even to place orders.
The giant whale shorts directly dumped 186 million U, and the bulls' small amount of funds on the market are too weak even to cause a spike.
Above are all trapped positions and the main base of shorts who bought high and are stuck, while below there are hardly any decent buy orders supporting the price.
With this position structure, any weak rebound only provides liquidity to the shorts; the downward creeping trend searching for a bottom won't stop anytime soon.
#ZEC
$ZEC
👇$BTC keeps pushing faith on Twitter every day, but when there's no cash flow, they still have to dump to exchange for USD.
MicroStrategy's main business in the financial report has directly regressed, propped up by unrealized gains on the books. To pay dividends and buy back shares, they forcibly dumped $432 million in spot BTC, and even the CFO has fled.
The funniest thing is that some still think institutions only buy and never sell. This glaring spot selling pressure is already right on top. Even the largest perpetual buyers have started digging into their pockets to cut losses and cash out. What can hold this position firm?
#BTC
$BTC
👇Is there still a chance after the $XPL flash crash?
Yesterday, $XPL experienced a flash crash, dropping sharply from around 0.086 to about 0.069 in a short time.
What’s noteworthy about this event is that out of 16 related wallets, 12 withdrew approximately $2,038,600 in margin in advance, causing Hyperliquid's HLP to passively take on a large number of long positions, ultimately losing about $556,000.
However, it cannot yet be directly concluded that these wallets were the ones dumping the coin, since $XPL had already experienced some decline before the first liquidation.
Looking at the current 1-hour chart, although the price has rebounded to around 0.07, the rebound after the sharp drop is weakening, and there is no clear short-term reversal yet.
Personally, I do not recommend bottom-fishing. Since $XPL was listed, its overall trend has not been good. Although there have been several rebounds, it has never entered a sustained uptrend.
Moreover, there is a significant unlock scheduled for November 25, approximately 228 million tokens.
For this kind of asset, it’s better to miss the rebound than to easily catch a coin in a downtrend.
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ @OKX中文 November is not a bull-bear showdown, but a concentrated release of multiple risks! What BTC fears most is not negative news, but repeated shifts in expectations.
Don't treat the midterm elections, non-farm payrolls, and CPI as catalysts for a one-sided market. The real danger lies in multiple variables simultaneously changing capital expectations, causing repeated market repricing and amplified volatility. In October, the Nasdaq 100 cumulatively dropped over 5.8%, with more than $2 trillion in market value at risk of evaporation. AI capital expenditure returns are also undergoing market scrutiny.
The next few key dates are especially critical: November 3rd US midterm elections and JOLTS job openings, 6th non-farm payrolls, 10th CPI, and 17th Nvidia earnings. Strong employment and sticky inflation may push interest rate expectations higher; cooling data would favor risk appetite recovery.
My strategy is clear: Do not chase BTC on news-driven rallies; focus on key supports and ETF capital flows; be cautious of amplified volatility in ETH when the market weakens, and avoid blindly bottom-fishing due to large declines; although XAUT has gold backing, guard against gold price pullbacks and premium fluctuations. Keep light positions and strict stop-losses in the short term; do not bet on one-sided moves. In November, first preserve principal, then wait for opportunities. $BTC #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ I have fully bet 16000xp on yes
Why yes?
1. Historical habit: Apple has always preferred "conservative guidance" in its earnings reports, and the reports often easily beat consensus expectations; big tech giants generally have a tradition of managing expectations.
2. Optimistic fundamentals: The market prices in new iPhone products, service business, and incremental growth from foldable screens, believing this quarter's profits are resilient.
3. But it's not blindly bullish: It hasn't surged to 85c or 90c, indicating that capital is also wary of risks: rising storage costs, slowing iPhone growth, and possibly disappointing guidance next quarter. So nearly 30% is reserved for "explosive disappointments below expectations."
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#苹果新CEO迎来iPhone18首份成绩单 The overall ecosystem attention of $ATOM is still on fees and staking. Cosmos's tech stack is inherently agent infrastructure, but the economic narrative remains stuck at the stage where the chain equals a toll station. This mismatch between the two might be the biggest opportunity for this ecosystem.I feel that there is still quite a bit of capital on the sidelines in the market, not truly leaving the crypto market.
BTC's performance during this period has surprised me a bit. Despite the Binance hack incident and a series of negative news, the price did not experience the expected sharp decline. Instead, altcoins like $LIT, $PUMP, $ZRO, and NEAR have started to show some strength.
Concerns about the AI bubble have been suppressing the crypto market for several months. During this time, AI stocks have been rising steadily, while the crypto market has been sideways for a long time. I believe some of the pessimistic expectations have already been priced in.
If the heat around AI stocks cools down later, and the crypto market can still maintain strength, then the funds originally chasing AI assets might well turn their attention back to Crypto.
What I am more focused on is the market environment after the midterm elections. If uncertainty gradually fades, off-market funds may look for opportunities again.
The market doesn't need all news to turn positive; what really matters is that despite continuous negative news, prices never fall. When bad news becomes increasingly unable to push the market down, I am actually willing to remain somewhat optimistic about the future trend.$XAU gold rebounded today, driven by three important reasons!
1. The previous decline was too large, and rebound demand is gradually being released.
In October, gold cumulatively corrected by nearly 10%, with a single-day drop of about 3.6% on October 30 alone. The continuous decline forced many investors to stop losses and exit, but as selling pressure eased, some funds began to buy at lows, and shorts also needed to cover, naturally leading to a recovery rally in gold.
2. US real interest rates have fallen, easing pressure on gold.
Recently, the US 10-year real yield dropped to about 2.60%. The decline in real interest rates means the opportunity cost of holding gold is reduced, which is positive for gold and supports the price rebound.
3. Gold's own buying power is starting to strengthen.
Today, the US dollar index was flat or slightly stronger, yet gold still moved upward. This indicates that the driving force behind the gold price increase may not be just the dollar factor; gold itself is attracting funds, with low-level buying gradually emerging.
This gold rebound is both a recovery after overselling and driven by falling interest rates and capital inflows.
However, a rebound does not equal a reversal. Whether it can continue to strengthen depends on whether buying momentum has staying power and if key levels can truly hold. The more volatile the market, the more important it is to stay clear-headed and not be easily swayed by short-term fluctuations. $SOL $ETH #非农来袭，12月加息会否生变？ I can only make money within my understanding and lose money beyond it!
Although I have been bearish all along, Monday's small rebound still taught me a lesson!
I think being bearish is not a problem,
I just feel that my understanding is still insufficient.
Because since there was a big drop last Friday,
I didn't think about closing my short positions,
which means I wanted to see a continued drop on Monday.
But how much logic is there for Monday to continue falling?
Here, I didn't consider that the poor liquidity on Saturday and Sunday would gradually ease the fear.
In other words,
although everyone was very fearful last Friday,
and sold very decisively,
and stopped losses very decisively,
leading to a rapid plunge in the market and the entire market.
This plunge was definitely caused by emotional contagion,
and this emotion,
I was still betting it would continue on Monday,
but I didn't think about the comforting effect of the weekend on psychology.
After understanding that emotional stabilization makes the market less fearful,
I then understood today's rise.
So,
for some profitable short positions,
I could have completely placed a hedging order over the weekend,
but I didn't.
Therefore, I can only make money within my understanding.
Lose money beyond my understanding.
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ $SOXL Is it a public chain or a “zombie”? CORE ecosystem's daily trading volume is less than a thousand dollars—has the countdown to zero begun?
As of November 2, CORE is priced around $0.013–0.014, down over 99% from its all-time high, with a circulating market cap of approximately $12 million to $14 million, having fallen into the high-risk small-cap range.
It is not without narrative. CORE focuses on BTCFi and once attracted funds with the pitch of “Bitcoin PoS layer + EVM compatibility + buyback and burn.” But the problem is: the value of a public chain does not rely on whitepapers but on real users and on-chain transactions.
The crash began in March 2026 with the ecological protocol Colend’s liquidation cascade, followed by an incident in September where validators received excessive tokens, causing multiple exchanges to suspend deposits and withdrawals, further damaging trust. Currently, the ecosystem’s TVL is sluggish, there are no hit applications, tokens continue unlocking, and rebounds are repeatedly crushed by sell pressure.
The claim in the headline that "daily trading volume is less than a thousand dollars" should be treated cautiously: some data sources still show 24-hour trading volume at the million-dollar level, but certain trading pairs within the ecosystem indeed have extremely poor liquidity, where even small sell orders can push prices to new lows.
CORE may not hit zero immediately, but it is already in a “semi-zombie” state. It serves as a warning to all investors: in the public chain arena, chains without real capital and users will also slowly bleed out.Don't rush to take "big players bottom-fishing" as a reversal signal; this wave feels more like testing the waters 🌙 Do they really think the bottom has been reached? When I saw that batch of disclosed positions last night, my first reaction wasn't excitement but a bit of a laugh: Tony bought about $4 million in BTC plus $9 million in QQQ, Vida added about $1 million in CQQQ, Boss Shi placed a long-term buy order for 150 BTC at an average price of around $76,700, and Pickle Cat plans to allocate ETH within 72 hours. Spanning US tech stocks, Asian tech assets, and crypto, this portfolio itself speaks volumes—they're not betting on a single coin but on an overall shift in risk appetite. ✨ But there's a misconception too: many see the list and assume "smart money has reached consensus." Actually, it's quite the opposite. According to WhaleRadar data up to November 2, whales' BTC short positions still significantly exceed their long positions, meaning those publicly announcing buys are buying, but hidden positions are still hedging. The crowd psychology is typical now: on one hand, FOMO fearing missing the rebound; on the other, hesitating to add positions, with narrative fatigue written in every group. My own understanding is that this batch of buy orders truly signals a slight shift in capital preference—from pure risk aversion toward tentative exploration of tech growth and crypto, rather than trend confirmation. For BTC, it means the 76k to 78k range is starting to be tested as psychological support; for ETH, the key is whether it can stabilize in sync, otherwise the risk appetite for altcoins will struggle to genuinely recover. The bullish path is clear: as long as laterThe $ETH Binance hacker incident seems to have stabilized for now,
with no continuous stampede occurring,
rebounding for three consecutive days,
the market has fully digested this negative news,
but trading volume has clearly shrunk,
mainstream coins $BTC and $ETH lack sufficient volume,
additionally, there is the issue of profit-taking in the AI sector,
the earnings season has revealed a huge gap between capital expenditures and cash flow returns,
combined with high interest rates raising financing costs,
further intensifying market panic,
it is expected that the rebound will stop tomorrow and the decline will continue. $BTC $ETH $HYPE Folks, recently everyone should have felt that the market has been quite exhausting. Whether institutions or big players, most are choosing to wait and see now, not daring to act rashly. On one hand, the US election is coming soon with too many uncertainties, so funds don't want to risk betting on a direction.
On top of that, with the BiNan fund theft incident, market panic hasn't completely dissipated. Although the withdrawal issues have been resolved, it still serves as a reminder to those playing in this space that no matter how strong an exchange is, without a solid backing, there is always a risk of theft, including okx.
There are no major positive catalysts recently. BTC and ETH mainly are moving in a back-and-forth oscillating pattern. Even Buffett would lose a few million USD and leave. So absolutely avoid heavy positions or going all-in on any direction.
For intraday focus, watch Ethereum closely. The 2230 area is a key strong support, with resistance around 2320. You can try a defensive long position with a stop loss at 2245.
By the way, let's talk about HYPE. Logically, Binance's incident should be somewhat beneficial to HYPE, since its narrative is self-custody DEX, which is its advantage. But the market actually went down. Why?
The core ICE compliance narrative is stuck in this sensitive election period, plus Paradigm unstaked 2.55 million HYPE a few days ago, making market sentiment very sensitive, so it pulled back a bit. #非农来袭，12月加息会否生变？ This HYPE 50x short position entered at 88.206, target 85.705, with an unrealized profit of +141.77%.
What’s worth mentioning about $HYPE is the timeline: at 15:21, a long position on SNDK was just opened, and by 15:40 this short position was taken — less than twenty minutes apart, the direction reversed.
This isn’t "being bullish and bearish at the same time," it’s a complete lack of unified judgment. You open positions in whichever direction is moving; longs and shorts are dictated by the market, not by you.
Each trade individually profits, but having opposing bets running simultaneously in the account means the gains come from volatility, not from accurate judgment.
From the trend perspective: first, take profit. If the rebound breaks above the previous high but can’t hold, exit; if not, continue to look for new lows. $BTC $ETH $BTW continues to increase short positions. After waiting for a week, it finally broke 1 again. I have figured it out: unlike previous demon coins that dropped all at once, BTW cuts losses slowly and gradually like a dull knife, giving the bulls hope that it will rebound. Then, after the bulls are deceived, it's like boiling a frog in warm water; the price slowly declines under the doggy whale's gradual selling rhythm. Because it's a slow decline, there are many rebounds during the price drop, which makes shorting BTW more difficult than previous demon coins. One careless move and the rebound triggers stop-loss, causing you to miss the subsequent downtrend! So I only dare to use 3x leverage, allowing me to set stop-losses more boldly.🇺🇸 US midterm elections, how will the US stock market and Bitcoin perform?
A chart to understand the key points, will history repeat itself?👇 I almost misread this message as "funds are abandoning the protocol." When people see a decrease in locked value, it's easy to immediately judge it as bearish. On the other hand, thinking it through, I believe this set of data is useful for assessing the scale of funds on the books, but the evidence is not enough to determine whether users are leaving.
According to DefiLlama data, Uniswap V4 currently has a TVL of about $1.094 billion, down approximately 28.8% over the week and 5.0% in a single day. The drop is indeed significant, but I am reluctant to equate the dollar-denominated shrinkage directly with user withdrawals.
There are two reasons: first, TVL is also affected by token prices; if the main factor is price decline, then attributing the entire drop to capital flight would exaggerate the withdrawal intensity—this is my conditional reasoning; second, locked value is a stock, not usage volume, so it cannot alone determine a decline in transaction demand. Next, I want to compare net outflows and trading activity to first distinguish whether the money has just become cheaper or if people have truly left. BTC and ETH have turned positive, but CELO continues to fall! ETFs saw outflows last week, and there is sustained on-chain revenue, so why aren't they moving in the same direction as the coin prices?
First, looking at $BTC, reference price 78197, up 0.43%. On October 30, the US spot ETF had a net outflow of 643.2 million USD, offsetting inflows from the previous four days, resulting in a net outflow of about 202.4 million USD for the week. Withdrawals weren't daily, but the last day changed the whole week's result.
Next, $ETH, reference price 2286, up 0.92%. From October 26 to 30, spot ETFs had net outflows for five consecutive days, totaling 431.4 million USD. However, last week's product fund flows cannot be directly taken as the current overall market buying or selling direction.
Finally, $CELO, reference price 0.07384, down 1.10%. Celo Mondo shows that October's fees were about 129,600 USD, and the community fund's accrued amount was about 108,200 USD. The latter is an estimate, not a completed transfer, and certainly not a dividend to token holders.
My focus is: whether ETF flows can improve, and how much sustained token demand on-chain revenue can generate.
Don't mistake price turning positive as a full capital inflow, nor on-chain income as money arriving in your own account.
This is just a personal market record and does not constitute investment advice.
#非农来袭，12月加息会否生变？ In the past ten days, 1.49 million $SOL have been gradually transferred into exchanges, worth about 149 million USD at the current price. On average, nearly 150,000 tokens are moved daily from on-chain to platform wallets.
This volume is worth noting. Retail holders' tokens are scattered across tens of thousands of addresses and won't neatly flow to the same endpoint within a single week. The entity capable of executing this action continuously for ten days is an account holding millions of tokens with someone monitoring the execution pace.
However, many people interpret the word "deposit" as "sell." There are several steps in between: it could be preparing to place orders, using the tokens as collateral to borrow stablecoins, participating in subscriptions, settling OTC trades, or simply consolidating positions from multiple wallets into one. On-chain, you can only see the funds moving; where they go afterward is invisible.
What truly indicates the situation is the order book. To become selling pressure, the depth would thin first, rebounds would shorten, and key price levels would become increasingly difficult to surpass. Conversely, if tokens have been deposited for half a month without increased trading volume or price suppression, it’s highly likely these tokens are intended for other purposes.
Based on the current information, my judgment is: no need to panic, and avoid leverage. If the potential selling pressure of 149 million USD is released all at once, it could cause $SOL to drop sharply in the short term—this possibility is real, so don’t comfort yourself by saying that whales deposit tokens to pump the price. But equally real is that these tokens might just remain idle.
A question to leave you with: if these 1.49 million tokens are truly dumped, can your position withstand it, or will you be forced out at the lowest point?$ZEC has the busiest calendar this week. Decrypt reports it near 1269, up 2% in 24 hours, still 25% below the historical high of 1698 at the end of September. Several attempts to reach 1390 in October were pushed back.
Half of the hype comes from the upgrade, with NU7 scheduled for mainnet activation on November 5, reducing block time from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, while the halving remains unchanged. The other half comes from internal conflict. The community fund ZCG takes 8% per block, accumulating 91,000 coins worth $125 million, recently used to support refugees. Co-founder Sean Bowe proposed cutting this 8%, Naval said a cap of 50 million is enough, and Winklevoss called it "taxation without representation." ZCG only agreed to hand over 36,200 coins, and the big holder big z simply announced liquidation.
The money hasn't really fled. Grayscale ZCSH had a net inflow of $41.1 million in the week ending October 23, with six consecutive days of inflows by the 27th. According to Liqwall's data today, the total network holdings rose 3.7% to $1.67 billion, funding rate at 0.01%, liquidations at $5 million, evenly split between longs and shorts. On Binance, only 44.4% of accounts are long, but big holders have 56.2% of their positions on the long side.
The upgrade is a known factor; if it doesn't surpass 1390 before the 5th, most will likely take profits that day and pull back to the 50-day moving average near 1200. Looking further at the fund dispute: if the 8% cut is really implemented and moved to reserves, removing a long-term selling outlet, big holders will have reason to hold; if no conclusion is reached by year-end, it won't be just big z leaving, and the previous low at 1049 won't be far off.If I were to write this as a strategy, I would first set a rule: if BTC's 24-hour gain is positive, but a certain contract ranks among the top losers, mark it as "relatively weak, to be observed" without directly generating a trading signal. After learning quantitative methods, the habit I most want to change is imagining opportunities just by looking at the leaderboard rankings 🤖
This Hyperliquid perpetual contract public market data shows that as of 14:00 Beijing time, among contracts with a 24-hour trading volume exceeding $20 million, $ZEC led with +1.87%, NEAR lagged with -3.38%; BTC rose 0.53% in the same period.
My judgment is that this information is more suitable for filtering research targets and is not enough to confirm a trend. BTC rising while still declining at the same time at least indicates performance divergence; but based on this snapshot alone, it’s impossible to tell if it’s a brief fluctuation or sustained weakness.
The advantage of the rule is turning the "feels weak" intuition into verifiable conditions, but its flaws are obvious: continuously checking 24-hour gains and losses involves highly overlapping windows, so it can’t be treated as multiple independent validations; passing the trading volume threshold doesn’t guarantee sufficient market depth when placing orders. I would consider adding relative performance to BTC and market depth checks to further test the rule’s effectiveness.
If you were to write this observation condition, would you require it to consistently lag behind BTC, or prioritize verifying market depth? How exactly would you set it to avoid mistaking short-term fluctuations for signals? I went all in with all my XP
I bet No, and the underlying logic behind this judgment is not that the financial report is bad; on the contrary, the financial data is very strong.
First, the AI storage theme had already experienced a big rally before the financial report, so the positive news was largely priced in by the market, turning the good news into bad news upon realization.
Second, although the current revenue and orders are outstanding, storage is a cyclical sector. The market will prioritize pricing future supply and price guidance. Once the guidance does not exceed explosive expectations, it is difficult to support further gains;
Third, today the computing hardware chain (optical communication, storage) has collectively experienced a pullback sentiment, with the sector's beta being relatively weak, making it harder for SNDK to independently continue rising.
The current market pricing of No at 65 points itself indicates that most funds believe the probability of further gains is low. My bet is on the pullback after the positive news is realized.
$ZEC $SNDK $BTC
#闪迪Q1营收同比增378%，Q2营收指引强劲 It seems no one has really predicted $PLTR's earnings after the market closes tonight, so I'll organize my thoughts. I've made a table of the earnings day performance over the past three years below, and basically, the following patterns can be drawn: 1. The main business US Commercial is the core indicator; when it accelerates, the stock price soars, but when growth slows significantly (like Q1 2024, Q1 2026), even if other numbers are good, the stock gets crushed. 2. Guidance upgrades have become the norm; the market is used to "beat + raise," and if the upgrade is less than expected or growth slows, a sell news event occurs (Q3 2025, Q1 2026). 3. Large contracts are the sweet spot; when record-breaking, the sweetness is highest, and other indicators like profit margin can basically be ignored. 4. Stock price volatility is huge; the average single-day volatility over the last 12 quarters is about ±16%, so betting on options either wins big or loses big. Combining recent clues: 1. On the Q2 call, the CEO said they want to maintain or even exceed the US Commercial growth rate over the next 18 months. 2. On October 21, a series of customer case releases felt like laying the groundwork for good data. 3. The strong remaining contract value from Q2, after converting to revenue in Q3, has a floor. I tend to think this blind box will be quite explosive, maybe even a new historical best. Just look at their earnings report; no need to listen to the call because the CEO is such a big talker that the market is already immune. Currently, the options market expects volatility around ±12% Wall Street funds are still withdrawing, yet the crypto market suddenly rebounds! The most worth studying in this wave is not who is rising fast, but who truly has the funds to support it.
Just finished reviewing the latest fund data and found a contradiction: BTC and ETH prices are recovering, but institutional product funds have not yet turned positive. CELO is even more special; on-chain income continues to be generated, but the coin price remains weak.
Current market situation:
$BTC: Around $78,197, up 0.43%. In the most recent trading day, spot ETF net outflow was $643 million, with a cumulative inflow of about $441 million over the previous four days. Institutions are not continuously buying; whether $78,000 can hold remains critical.
$ETH: Around $2,286, up 0.92%. Spot ETF outflows have continued for five consecutive trading days, totaling about $431 million. The price is relatively strong, but breaking through $2,300 is still needed for confirmation.
$CELO: Around $0.07384, down 1.10%. On-chain data for Celo shows that in October, approximately $129,600 in fee income was generated, with about 1.22 million CELO counted toward the community fund's accrued amount. Real income is still being generated but is insufficient to prove that selling pressure has disappeared.
In short: BTC depends on whether institutional funds can return, ETH depends on whether the price can absorb outflow pressure, and CELO depends on whether real income can convert into sustained demand. The rebound has appeared, but fund confirmation has not yet!
Do you think CELO will first reclaim $0.075, or BTC will first hold steady at $79,000?
#非农来袭，12月加息会否生变？ [Countertrend List of the Crisis Week: Institutional-Grade On-Chain Infrastructure Attracting Capital]
Security crises at leading exchanges often serve as free advertising for alternative infrastructure. Data from the past week adds several specific names to this list.
Figure Markets Exchange's TVL rose 18.4% on November 2nd, reaching $141.7 million. Figure is a tokenized securities platform led by former SoFi co-founder Mike Cagney, built on the Provenance blockchain, focusing on institutional-grade OTC trading—it represents the "licensed institutions moving securities on-chain" approach: not pursuing permissionless revolution, but using blockchain for backend clearing and circulation of traditional securities. Its growth after the Binance incident indicates institutional funds are seeking a middle path that is "on-chain yet backed by licensed entities."
Jupiter Lend's TVL surged 47.1% in one day to $34.1 million—the lending module of Solana's leading aggregator attracted capital during the incident week, aligning with the logic of "exchange trust damaged, on-chain native finance benefits." Valantis's stHYPE re-staking vault doubled its TVL to $8.8 million within two days, representing the latest building block in the Hyperliquid ecosystem's modular development.
The rise of small and medium CEXs (such as Nexo's +64.3% in one day) should be viewed separately: it is more of an event beta—decentralized outflows from top platforms after user withdrawals. Whether this traffic can consolidate into stock depends on each platform's transparency construction and reserve proof, not on how long Binance's wound lasts.Is the memory chip market starting to cool down? SanDisk targets 1050, Hynix targets 950! $SNDK
Recently, SanDisk and Hynix have shown a clear weakening trend. I believe this round of the memory market may be entering an adjustment phase.
First, looking at the news: Kioxia's latest earnings guidance fell short of market expectations, and the NAND price increase has also significantly slowed. Although SanDisk's earnings are good, its stock price still plunged, indicating the market is starting to worry that the positive news has already been priced in. $SKHYNIX
Hynix's fundamentals remain strong, with good demand and orders for HBM, but the stock price has begun to reflect AI investment returns and valuation pressure. Good earnings do not necessarily mean the stock price will continue to rise.
From a technical perspective, SanDisk should focus on around 1115; if it breaks below, I see 1050; for Hynix, first watch the 1040–1050 support; if lost, the next focus is 1000, with a further target of 950.
My view is: demand in the memory industry still exists, but the market's expectations for future growth may be too high. What we need to watch next is not how good the earnings are, but whether the stock price can continue to absorb these positives.
Do you think this is a normal correction, or is the memory market really starting to cool down?
#非农来袭，12月加息会否生变？ $ETH $BTC $SOL Today's market shows a contrast: $BTC is rising, but the total market cap is falling.
TokenPost's midnight snapshot shows the total market cap dropped 2.92% to $2.62 trillion, with a 24-hour trading volume of $108.01 billion; $BTC is at $78,420, up 0.77%, $ETH at $2,293, up 1.17%, XRP at $1.25, and only $SOL fell 0.54% to $95.01. $BTC's market cap dominance rose to 60.1%, $ETH at 10.6%. Finnhub's latest afternoon prices: $BTC about $78,214, $SOL about $94.44.
Why is it moving this way? Because this is not a full recovery, but a contraction of capital. Over the past seven days, major coins have actually been falling; $SOL dropped 5.51% over the week. Today's rebound looks more like the leader stabilizing first, rather than capital spreading out again. The leading $ZEC rose 2.51%, while the laggard MORPHO fell 4.25%, showing rotation is very localized. Liquidations in 24 hours reached $91.2 million, with shorts accounting for $53.3 million, indicating that short positions were partially wiped out by the rebound, but this does not mean the trend has reversed.
The logic is to first see if the leader is stable, then check if breadth follows. $BTC holding near the 100-day moving average around $77,831, $ETH holding near $2,300, provides a basis for continued recovery; if total market cap continues to shrink and breadth does not expand, the rebound is likely to remain limited $BTC has been hovering around 78,200 all day, up 0.8%, looking like nothing happened
$ETH followed with a 0.7% rise, while $SOL actually dropped 1.4%, at 94, losing the 100 mark and never recovering it. The current relationship among these three is: hackers are swapping the stolen 970,000 SOL into BTC, while traders themselves are long on BTC and short on SOL. Are you still expecting SOL to have an independent rally? ETH is even more awkward, with both contract and spot outflows, its rebound entirely relying on BTC's generosity.
The capital logic is simple: after incidents, people only dare to hold the strongest leg. The combined trading volume of the three is nearly $500 million; it's not that no one is playing, but those who do play run away quickly. For SOL to turn around, it must first reclaim 100; if it can't, 94 is just a passing point.Microsoft earnings report shakes the market! Behind the impressive data lies a tough challenge 📊
$MSFT latest earnings delivered a dazzling performance: revenue of $92.28 billion, nearly +19% year-over-year, EPS exceeded expectations. Azure surged 48%, unconfirmed contract revenue RPO soared 73% to 677 billion, with solid order demand.
But the core question arises: is the current stock price around $530 still worth buying?
The forward P/E ratio is 27 times, which looks inexpensive compared to peers; however, factoring in growth, the PEG ratio is actually higher than the sector, meaning much of the positive outlook is already priced in.
The key challenge Microsoft faces next is not how big AI can scale, but how much profit AI can actually generate:
▫️ Small model Decision-1 handles repetitive tasks, reducing computing costs
▫️ Self-developed Maia 300 chip processes about 40% more tokens with the same power, large-scale deployment expected by 2027
▫️ Market rumors about Azure cutting costs have been officially denied; cost reductions mostly remain expectations and have not yet translated into profits
Wall Street is clearly divided: the average institutional target price is $594, implying over 10% upside; on the other hand, Michael Burry warns that tech giants’ AI capital expenditures are overly aggressive, with off-balance-sheet commitments for data centers across the industry possibly reaching 3 trillion. If AI revenue does not outpace investment, profit margins will remain under pressure BTC's October decline matters, but the sharper warning is the demand backdrop: US spot ETF outflows of $643M on Oct. 30 followed four days of inflows, while the Coinbase premium has remained negative for 38 days. Miner revenue is strong, yet revenue per hashrate fell. That mismatch leaves any recovery dependent on renewed spot buying.
#BTCMarketSignalsDiverge If the Democratic Party takes control of Congress, will SPCX face a "political discount"?
What is truly worth watching out for may not be the merger being rejected by a single vote, but rather the extension of the transaction timeline. SpaceX and Tesla have established independent special committees to evaluate the merger, but the transaction terms have not yet been finalized, and shareholder support is also a key threshold. The merger of the two companies may also face antitrust and cross-border regulatory reviews.
If the Democrats control the House of Representatives, hearings, conflict of interest investigations, and congressional oversight pressure may increase, but Congress cannot directly replace regulatory agencies to approve or reject the deal. The market is more likely to first trade on approval uncertainties rather than an immediate merger failure.
Particular attention should be paid to SPCX: OKX's SPCX-USDT is a perpetual contract tracking SpaceX's stock price and does not equal holding company shares. If merger expectations cool down, valuation premiums may shrink; if review risks ease, a rebound repair may also occur.
My judgment is: single-chamber control is likely to trigger emotional fluctuations, while control of both chambers may increase policy uncertainty, but neither constitutes a definite short signal. The focus should be on transaction progress, regulatory statements, and contract premiums—don't take political news directly as trading direction. $BTC #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ A position of 5200 ETH, I'm more concerned about where it will draw the onlookers' sentiment. After Big Brother Maji cleared his HYPE long positions, he continued to add 25x leverage ETH longs, and overall it's slightly profitable now. This is somewhat interesting, but I think it's more like an attention event for mainstream assets, not yet a signal for small-cap token trends. 👀
My guess is, if onlookers take the big holders' floating profits as evidence of a sector strengthening, then related small tokens might see short-term sentiment opportunities, but not necessarily sustained buying follow-through. High volatility can amplify narratives, but also amplify disappointment; leveraged positions turning profitable doesn't mean the judgment has been validated.
I will separate "what big holders are doing" from "whether funds are spreading out," observing if there are more related assets active beyond ETH, rather than getting excited over a single profit and loss screenshot. Are people recently focusing on the Ethereum ecosystem, derivatives, or other sectors? Will this position change alter your observation focus? Some people say holding for 10 years will make it 10 USD each, but starting from 2021 until now, there are already tens of millions of coins. Look for yourself if any have dropped 500 times and then recovered. Some have, but very few, just about a dozen or so, meaning only about a hundred thousand coins could have one like that. Instead of gambling on this one in a hundred thousand chance, why not play with other coins?The market has bounced back, but everyone take note: the bears still dominate!
(Figure 1) shows the overall market long-short situation; the major mainstream coins $BTC $ETH $SOL are all dominated by bears. The big traders on hyperliquid are even more extreme, with 80% being bears (Figure 2).
BTC is grinding at the 78,000 whole number level; above, the 80,500–82,000 range is a resistance zone pressed by the 20-day moving average, and below, 76,000 overlaps with the 200-day moving average, which is the bulls' last stand.
BTC's RSI has dropped to around 36, which is not oversold but indicates no buyers.
ETH is the strongest among the three today, climbing from 2,250 back to 2,300, leading the rise. But the foundation is still cracked: the spot ETF saw a capital withdrawal of 156 million the day before yesterday, while on-chain activity is strengthening but institutions are withdrawing.
This divergence of strong on-chain activity and weak ETF for ETH, if it can't close above 2,300, I consider it a bull trap.
SOL is the dullest today, oscillating around 95, RSI at 30.5 is close to oversold but no funds are coming in. SOL has strong fundamentals but was oversold mistakenly; however, it is locked down short-term by macro factors. When risk appetite returns, it should lead; for now, you can accumulate a bit at low levels.
The previous low at 92.3 is a very strong support; as long as it holds above 90, there is not much problem. Oversold conditions could trigger a technical rebound above 100 (7-day moving average) at any time.
#非农来袭，12月加息会否生变？ BTC has dropped 7.3% cumulatively in October and is now fluctuating between 77,000 and 80,000 USD. There is a serious divergence in the funding side. The US spot ETF saw a net outflow of 643 million USD on October 30, ending four consecutive days of inflows. Even more severe is the Coinbase Bitcoin premium index, which has fallen to its lowest level since November 2022, remaining negative for 38 consecutive days. This indicates that US capital buying is almost exhausted.
On the miner side, although total revenue in October hit an 11-month high, revenue per unit of computing power dropped by 17.5%. If the coin price continues to fall, miners may increase potential selling pressure at any time to cover costs.From about 9 and a half hours after withdrawal resumed with a net outflow of $3.64 billion (withdrawals $4.65 billion / deposits $1.1 billion), to now a net outflow of $6.76 billion, the withdrawal scale has stabilized, and the panic of a bank run has basically passed.
I speculate that this outflow includes panic over the midterm elections and security incidents.
The panic over the theft incident has already ended.
The midterm election panic is the early consumption of the bearish expectation that the Democrats will take the House.
After the official results are released, it is easy for the bearish news to turn into bullish.
In the midterm elections, pro-crypto PACs have over $140 million supporting the Republicans.
The election results directly determine the pace of progress for stablecoin legislation, Clarity relaunch, and strategic Bitcoin reserves.
Bitcoin has already risen to 78,150, and crude oil has fallen to 100.77.
In a flat position, none of the trades are suitable to open.
Save trading opportunities for tomorrow.
Those holding long positions around 77,800 following Sanpao and short positions on crude oil at 103 and 105 should take profits at 79,500 and 99 respectively.
Also, after the US stock market opens at 22:30, you can check the Bitcoin ETF data; a decrease in net outflow is a sign of stabilization. As long as there is no large outflow, Bitcoin is considered bullish.$ETH surged to 2,317.84 in the morning but couldn't hold, falling back steadily over three hours to around 2,284, dropping again below 2,300. The 24h gain shrank from nearly 2% to 0.8%.
$BTC is similar, retreating from a high of 78,878 to 78,150, with a 24h gain down to just +0.35%. The volume on these two hourly candles in the afternoon clearly shrank.
According to Liqwall data as of 3 PM Beijing time, there was $100 million liquidated across the network in the past 24 hours, with shorts accounting for $59.5 million or 59%. BTC liquidations were $35.9 million (shorts $29.1 million), ETH $31.7 million (shorts $22.3 million).
Binance ETH funding rate remains at -0.0012%, BTC is +0.0077%.
My view is that the morning surge was basically short covering pushing the price up; once covered, no one stepped in. ETH's funding rate never turned positive, indicating insufficient spot buying. I'll be watching closely around 2,250.US spot ETH ETFs saw a net outflow of about $431 million over the five trading days last week, marking the fifth consecutive week of withdrawals.
BlackRock's ETHA led the pack with about $391 million withdrawn in one week.
Grayscale's ETHE saw roughly $37 million outflow.
Fidelity's FETH, on the other hand, had a net inflow of about $63 million, making it a rare exception.
On October 30 alone, there was an outflow of about $155.7 million, the largest single day that week.
The total net outflow over the five trading days was about $431 million, with the total net assets of the products still around $13.2 billion, accounting for approximately 4.8% of Ethereum's market cap.
Five consecutive weeks of outflows on the weekly chart indicate institutions have not turned back; $ETH remains relatively weak compared to BTC.
The inflow to FETH is not enough to cover the sell-off volume of ETHA; capital still prefers to stay on the BTC side, with buying pressure on ETH clearly insufficient.
Current price is around 2287, 24-hour high at 2318, low at 2248, funding rate close to zero, with neither bulls nor bears fully in control.
Price slid down from around 2318 during the day; volume and capital flow do not match, so I don't consider this a trend reversal.
What’s missing is sustained buying, not just a short-term rebound.
Price grinding upwards is possible to watch, but for a real bullish turn, outflows need to stabilize first.
Short-term support is at 2250, near last night’s low; if broken, reduce positions.
Resistance at 2320 is the first barrier; if it holds, then look at 2350.
Stop loss below 2220; target first at 2380, position size remains small for $ETH #美股与金银同步大跌，避险资金流向分化 The most striking thing about the flash crash isn't the drop itself, but that someone pulled the ladder away early.
XPL today quickly fell from $0.086431 to $0.069429, triggering a cascade of long liquidations, with Hyperliquid's HLP vault suffering a loss of about $556,000. The source of the positions is even more noteworthy: 16 wallets have been continuously increasing their XPL long positions since October 29, totaling about 269 million tokens with a nominal exposure of approximately $23 million; among them, 14 wallets transferred funds from Binance about two months ago, and 12 of these withdrew about 2.02 million USDC to reduce margin before the drop.
According to PANews, the timing of these position builds and margin withdrawals is too consistent, suggesting a bearish bias on XPL. Two points to watch: first, whether XPL can hold the $0.07 level; second, whether these 12 wallets will continue withdrawing tokens and exiting. Continued outflows would indicate that selling pressure is not yet exhausted. Additionally, the drawdown of the HLP vault may shake HYPE depositors' confidence in the platform's risk control, making the short-term outlook for HYPE neutral to bearish.
Are you more concerned about the $0.07 support line or the next moves of those 12 wallets? $UNITREE Now the toy factory A-shares and tokens have formed a fixed rhythm difference
A-shares ferment positive news, tokens will not rise synchronously
After the positive sentiment heats up and absorbs off-market funds' attention, it will start to spike and shake out
Manipulating the market is not a one-time thing, but a fixed cycle used repeatedly
The key is not to go long or short immediately after the news comes out, but to wait until the positive sentiment fades and the follow-up momentum is exhausted, then seize the window
#非农来袭，12月加息会否生变？