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A global rally in technology shares ground to a halt Thursday after lackluster earnings from two industry heavyweights reignited investor skepticism over whether the billions of dollars being poured into artificial intelligence will ultimately generate sufficient returns, according to Bloomberg . Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.9%, signaling the index's three-day advance was set to end, while S&P 500 contracts slipped 0.2% . The pullback was led by sharp declines in Alphabet and Samsung Electronics, w#US September Core PCE Rises to 3.1%, Rate Hike Expectations Remain High
✅Key Points
The Fed's preferred inflation gauge, Core PCE, rose year-over-year from 3.0% to 3.1%, showing inflation stickiness beyond expectations and still far from the 2% target. This directly boosts market probability of a rate hike in December, delays rate cut expectations further, puts upward pressure on US Treasury yields and the dollar, and creates macro headwinds for risk assets like BTC.
📊Market Impact
After the data release, risk asset sentiment weakened, BTC's rebound momentum was dampened, continuing a range-bound pattern. Although long-term spot ETF buying remains, capital is increasingly cautious, and bulls hesitate to enter aggressively; contract market volatility rises, increasing shakeout risk.
📌Positive Factors
1. BTC's long-term narrative remains unchanged, and institutional spot allocation logic persists
2. If subsequent employment data weakens significantly, inflation pressure may marginally ease
⚠️Risks
1. Inflation rebound and reinforced pricing of "higher rates for longer" suppress crypto valuations
2. Rising expectations of a December rate hike; if realized, BTC likely faces correction pressure
3. Heavy overhead resistance with no strong catalyst makes breakthroughs difficult
🔮Outlook
Short term: Weak oscillation, prone to repeatedly testing support, unlikely to see strong upward momentum.
Medium term: Focus on upcoming inflation and employment data. Persistent inflation stickiness and sustained high rate hike expectations pressure BTC; if inflation eases and rate hike expectations cool, a recovery rally may emerge.
📌Key indicators to watch: CME Fed Watch, US Treasury yields, Dollar Index, ETF fund flowsFor BTC, $79,500 to $80,000 is the immediate support zone to defend. A reclaim of $81,500 would improve the short term picture, while another breakdown could invite more selling.
The takeaway for traders: a rate pause is not the same as a liquidity boost. Until price confirms stronger demand, protecting capital matters more than chasing the first green candle.Tonight's 8:30 PCE could be the roadmap for $BTC over the next month or so 🧭
The Fed held steady last night, but the vote was 10 to 2, with two members advocating a rate hike; the probability of a rate hike in December has risen from 36% to 78% within a month. PPI year-on-year has reached 6.35%, and tonight's PCE is expected at 3.6%. I believe there's about a 60-70% chance it will be on the hot side.
If it's hot, my projection is: $BTC will first pull back to around 78,000, with one more rebound before the election, but it will struggle to hold above 83,000; the real downturn will come after the November 3 election, initially targeting 67,000–70,000. November 16–20 is the week Anthropic goes public. Before SpaceX went public this year, BTC bottomed around the IPO period; this week is the first low point window.
If it's cold, with two consecutive weekly candles closing above 83,000, this scenario is invalidated, and the target shifts to 87,300 and 90,000.
I will watch three signals: tonight's PCE, the weekly close on November 2, and whether the 10-year US Treasury yield surges to 5.3%. Time, price points, and conditions are all detailed in today's long article; friends who want to prepare in advance can take a look.
This is my personal view and does not constitute investment advice. #美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高 #OKX、ICE与Trade.xyz联手，推动永续合约进入美国合规市场 The market wanted a pause from the Fed, but crypto needed more than that to sustain a rally.
The Fed held rates at 3.75% to 4.00%, yet two members voted for a 25 bps hike. That division matters because persistent inflation and a resilient economy leave little room to assume easier monetary policy is coming.
As of Oct 29, $BTC is trading near $80,000, down roughly 1.5% on the day after failing to hold above $81,500. $ETH is around $2,320, also under pressure.
#USCorePCERisesTo3.1% $SOL This 100x short position has a floating profit of 174.94%, opened short at 102.89, currently marked at 101.09, with profits continuing to expand.
The logic remains solid: 103.17 surged then fell with a long upper shadow, 15-minute chart continuously breaking below moving averages (MA5/10/20 pressed down to 101.4/101.9/101.5), MACD dead cross with expanding red bars (DIFF 0.22, DEA 0.37), KDJ's J value at -19.67 indicating extreme oversold. On the 4-hour chart, there is a wide range oscillation between 98.54-105.20, current price stuck just above the 100.14 support, MACD shows a weak golden cross below zero axis but momentum is weak, KDJ is flat at mid-level.
The 15-minute J value is already negative, the 101.0-100.38 range is prone to sharp rebound spikes. Operation: halved position above 102.5, stop loss locked at 102.0 to protect the base position, targeting a break below 100.14 to test 98.54. Taking 174% big profit without greed, mainstream coins can be decided by a single hundredfold spike, better to secure profits. $BTC $ZEC #美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高 $DOT Bullish foundation is holding firm at key support as buyers step up to fuel a swift rebound
Buy Zone: 0.980 - 0.995
Ep: 0.988
Tp: 1.080
Sl: 0.940
Let's go $DOT
#OKXOrbitTopics .#Strategy before the report: significant recovery of BTC MSCI balance profit this time is really going to act, Saylor cannot rely on faith alone
The scariest thing for Strategy has returned again. MSCI has approved new rules for non-operating companies, Strategy, Metaplanet, and other companies accumulating cryptocurrency may be excluded from the index, the final list of affected companies will be published on November 11. Note, this is a risk of exclusion, not that they have already been excluded. #StrategyQ3BTCGains
#StrategyQ3BTCGains Trading Signals 📊
Q3 $20.91B unrealized gain on 847,666 BTC reverses $8.32B Q2 loss, carry $70.82B vs $49.67B Q2. Holdings now 848k BTC avg $75,441 = 4% supply. BTC +44% Q3.
Signals: RSI 68 bullish momentum, 50MA crosses 200MA golden cross buy. Breakout $84.5k→$85,839 confirmed. Accumulation: 334 BTC @ $85,839 last week, $5.7B USD assets + STRC buyback $176M. Trend bullish, moderate risk. If BTC holds >$84k, continuation long.🚨 The real test of $HOOD's earnings report: If the crypto market cools down, can Robinhood continue to grow?
Many people think of trading volume first when they see Robinhood.
But I believe the real focus this time is not how much the crypto trading volume has rebounded, but a more critical question:
When the trading heat brought by the bull market fades, what else can Robinhood rely on to make money?
📊 Let's look at some key data:
Crypto trading volume in August surged 61% month-over-month to $17.5 billion, but it still dropped 38% year-over-year.
This data is quite interesting.
The sharp month-over-month increase indicates a clear recovery in trading activity; the year-over-year decline reminds us that the crypto business cannot yet be simply considered fully recovered.
Meanwhile, stock and options trading remain important components of the platform's business.
This means Robinhood's future growth cannot be judged solely by when the crypto market heats up again; it also depends on whether other businesses can continue to contribute revenue.
🔥 This earnings report focuses on three key areas!
1️⃣ Crypto business: Is the rebound just a start or a short-term pulse?
If crypto trading revenue continues to improve, it means the platform has a chance to benefit again from increased market activity.
But if trading volume mainly depends on short-term market trends, revenue may also face pressure once the market cools.
2️⃣ Stocks and options: Can they support more stable growth?Macro backdrop September core PCE rose to 3.1% YoY from 3.0%, and headline PCE climbed to 3.6% from 3.4%. Both matched forecasts, but the direction is the problem: inflation is still edging up, and the disinflation story keeps losing ground. The Fed held rates at 3.75%–4.00% in October, but the 10-2 vote showed a hawkish bloc, with Cook and Harker pushing for a 25 bp hike. Fed funds futures now price over 80% odds of a December hike. What it means for $BTC "In line" isn't "good news." Rising co$xCRCL Bullish structure remains intact near crucial support as smart money continues steady accumulation
Buy Zone: 79.20 - 80.15
Ep: 79.80
Tp: 86.50
Sl: 76.50
Let's go $xCRCL
#OKXOrbitTopics .#Coinbase integrates Deribit, can third-quarter revenue improve? 看到 $SNDK 巨鲸一夜认亏458万美元，我突然明白了一个道理：交易里最贵的，从来不是看错方向，而是不肯承认自己看错了。💸
一位大户重仓做多闪迪，整整扛了30天，最终还是在今天凌晨选择全部离场。
📉 这笔交易有多惨？q
入场成本：1814美元
最终离场：1247美元
账面跌幅：约31.3%
最后平掉5000份仓位，单笔亏损约283万美元
整轮交易累计亏损：458万美元！
几千万人民币，就这样从账户里蒸发。
à23日入场，到最后选择认亏离场，这30天里，股价每一次下跌，都在考验持仓者的判断和耐心。
最难受的，可能不是亏损本身，而是眼看着价格不断远离自己的成本，却始终期待下一次反弹能让自己解套。
但市场不会因为你亏得多，就专门给你一次回本的机会。
很多人总觉得，资金量足够大，就能扛过下跌；只要不卖出，亏损就不算真正发生。
可现实是，仓位越大，错误判断带来的代价可能越高。即使是资金雄厚的巨鲸，也无法保证自己每次都能等到反弹。
这笔交易真正值得反思的，不是巨鲸为什么会亏几百万，而是三个问题：
❗ 第一，入场逻辑还成立吗？
买入之后，市场发生变化，就应该重新评估判断，I've been in crypto for a long time and know how many people still avoid exchanges and wallets. For them, ETFs are simply more convenient.
INJC (the staked INJ ETF from Canary) is launching on Nasdaq. It plans to stake up to 90% of its INJ, with BitGo as the custodian. A regular brokerage account, no seed phrases.
I'm curious who will come first.
$INJ $STRK Bullish accumulation is forming at heavy discount levels as bulls gear up to spark a major rally
Buy Zone: 0.04550 - 0.04641
Ep: 0.04600
Tp: 0.05200
Sl: 0.04380
Let's go $STRK
#OKXOrbitTopics .Here are 6 new versions for you, all different:
*Version 1 - Minimalist Trading Version*
> Short
> Short at 145-145.5 on rebound, stop loss at 147.5, targets 142.5 / 140
> After a cliff drop, weak consolidation, bears are strong, short on rebound but do not chase shorts
*Version 2 - Social Circle Version*
> Bearish, short if rebound cannot break above 145-145.5
> Stop loss if breaks 147.5, targets 142.5 and 140 below
> Just finished waterfall drop, weak consolidation, MACD below zero line, wait for rebound confirmation, light position with stop loss
*Version 3 - Professional Signal Version*
>
> Entry zone: 145.00-145.50 resistance short
> Defense: stop loss above 147.50
> Targets: 142.50 → 140.00
> Analysis: Weak consolidation after high-level cliff drop, MACD running below zero line, bears dominate, mainly short on rebound
*Version 4 - Warning Version*
> ⚠️ Short opportunity
> Wait for rebound resistance at 145-145.5 before entering, admit mistake if breaks 147.5
> Take profit at previous low 142.5, if breaks then 140
> Reminder: Do not chase shorts directly, wait for resistance confirmation
*Version 5 - Commentary Version*
> Bearish idea
> Entry logic: 145-145.5 is rebound resistance zone, short on resistance
> Risk control: stop loss above 147.5
> Targets: 142.5, 140
> Background: Weak oscillation after high-level plunge, MACD below zero line, overall bearish 🔥 10.30 Crypto Circle Daily Brief
BTC barely reclaimed $81,000 today, rebounding about 2% from the weekend low of $79,000, but market sentiment has not truly eased. Tonight's Federal Reserve interest rate decision will be a key short-term directional factor, with hawkish expectations continuing to suppress risk asset performance.
Forecast market data shows the probability of BTC breaking above $100,000 this year has dropped to 17%, indicating that capital is pricing in a clearly conservative outlook for further gains. Meanwhile, a large amount of trapped positions are piled up above $87,000, and every step of the rebound may face selling pressure from position unwinding.
For bulls to reverse the current weakness, they need both sentiment recovery after policy signals are delivered and incremental capital to absorb the resistance above. Otherwise, this rebound may only be a breather rather than a trend reversal.
$BTC $ETH
#10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 The development brings together three distinct roles. Hyperliquid provides the underlying technology, Trade[XYZ] develops the markets, and ICE is expected to support the regulated exchange and clearing infrastructure.
If approved and successfully implemented, this could broaden access to onchain derivatives and introduce new competition across traditional and crypto markets.
However, regulatory clearance, product execution and trader adoption will ultimately determine the scale of its impact.Latest crypto market update! Earnings season volatility is intense🔥
Recently, the overall market has been fluctuating and consolidating, with ETH's daily trend weakening and bearish sentiment continuously suppressing the market.
Prices have fallen close to key support levels, with bulls showing clear lack of momentum, indicating a generally weak short-term outlook.
Earnings season news is extremely sensitive, and the market changes rapidly. Never chase trades blindly!
Trade lightly following the trend, strictly use stop-losses, avoid all-in bets, and don't hold losing positions.
Making money in crypto isn't about gambling on one big win; it's about stable risk management + securing profits. Staying alive is always more important than huge gains! $ETH Hyperliquid’s expansion into regulated US markets marks a significant development for the onchain derivatives sector.
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, has announced a deal with Trade[XYZ] to bring Hyperliquid based perpetual futures into the US, subject to regulatory approval.
The proposed products could cover equities, indices, commodities, forex, and crypto, with round the clock trading access.
#USCorePCERisesTo3.1% 🚨 Behind the $AXIS decline, what’s truly worth being cautious about is not the drop itself, but the large trading volume without a corresponding increase in open interest!
Many people see a volume surge during a decline and immediately think the main players are dumping and the trend is worsening. But for a token like $AXIS with a relatively thin circulating supply, there might be another explanation: trading is very active, but the amount of capital genuinely willing to hold long-term may not be large.
This is the key point this data set highlights.👇
📊 1️⃣ High trading volume does not mean a large amount of capital is staying
Trading volume reflects how many transactions occurred over a period, while open interest (OI) reflects the size of contracts not yet closed; these are not the same.
If volume expands rapidly but OI does not grow in sync, it means trading activity hasn’t translated into an equivalent scale of new positions.
However, this doesn’t necessarily mean all capital is day trading; it could also involve closing positions, position turnover, and repeated entries and exits by both longs and shorts. These two indicators alone can’t directly determine the fundamental cause of the decline.
⚠️ 2️⃣ The circulating structure of $AXIS makes volatility risk more worthy of attention
According to public information, the initial circulating ratio of $AXIS is about 16.5%. Meanwhile, Binance Wallet has announced a $200,000 total reward AXIS trading competition, with the first round running from October 26 to November 2, followed by a second round.<Cite #هل يمكن لتحالف Coinbase مع Deribit تحسين الإيرادات في الربع الثالث؟
$BTC #Поворот Intel's shift to contract manufacturing brings a new Terafab factor Intel's shift to contract manufacturing and the launch of the Terafab concept introduce a powerful change factor to the chip industry. The global restructuring of supply chains could significantly shake up the entire tech sector. Against the backdrop of these fundamental news, I continue to confidently hold my $GRAM on spot. Strong macroeconomic shifts always create great opportunities for liquidity growth in the crypto market#تقرير استراتيجية ما قبل النتائج المالية: عائدات BTC المحققة ترتفع بشكل كبير
Based on the new accounting standards for crypto assets, Bitcoin is valued at market price, and the income statement in the financial report is directly affected by the currency's price movements.
Noting that during the previous BTC downturn, the company recorded unrealized losses; in the current Bitcoin rebound, the holdings' valuation was corrected, and previous floating losses quickly turned into book profits, which will lead to a significant positive shift in performance. In the next few hours, after Bitcoin rebounds, it will still go down. I am not chasing longs, nor am I looking for new upward moves. Ethereum is slightly volatile in the short term, and the trading volume hasn't given a clear direction, so I won't bet on up or down for now. If you find the analysis helpful, remember to follow and like; your support is my greatest motivation to keep updating. Bitcoin's low in the past 12 hours was 79,829.00, and the high was 81,970.40. There are clearly more people publicly calling for Bitcoin longs, but the real money is moving toward selling. The price surged to near the upper boundary of the recent range but failed to hold, then fell back; large-scale long reductions and short additions occurred during that surge. Although there were some short reductions and long additions afterward, the volume couldn't withstand the selling pressure. More people doesn't mean more money; what I see is a pullback after the rebound, not a new rise. The current price is some distance from the upper boundary and even farther from the lower boundary, so it's not a good position to chase longs. Ethereum's low in the past 12 hours was 2,305.22, and the high was 2,379.36. Ethereum's active trades are slightly biased toward selling, but the difference between buying and selling isn't large, and neither side has a clear advantage. More troublesome is that large forced liquidations or unclear trades are mixed in the market, which can't be counted as bullish or bearish and only make short-term reading more difficult. Forcing a direction in such a market is likely to backfire. The price has also fallen back from the recent range's upper boundary and is now near the lower middle. I don't have usable popularity references here, so lacking a benchmark, I won't bet on up or down in the short term. I'll wait for trading volume to clarify direction again or for the price to stabilize at the lower boundary of the range before discussing further. Whether sell orders still dominate when Bitcoin pushes the recent range's upper boundary again; if buy orders continuously surpass sell orders, EthereumThree short positions are respectively placed on the three major coins SOL, BTC, and ETH, showing an overall pattern of "profits at both ends, floating losses in the middle," which intuitively reflects the traders' high-leverage short-selling strategy and the subtle current market game.
$SOL short position: 50x leverage full position short, currently profiting 549.99 USDT, return rate 26.94%, opening average price 102.07, current mark price 101.52. A slight price decline has already realized a good profit, representing a light-position, high-win-rate short-term short position layout.
$BTC short position: 100x leverage isolated margin short, currently floating loss of 5510.52 USDT, return rate -68.40%, opening average price 80561.9, current mark price 81112.9. A slight upward price deviation has eaten nearly 70% of the margin, making it the riskiest part of the entire position.
$ETH short position: 100x leverage full position short, currently profiting 16311.21 USDT, return rate 136.92%, opening average price 2382.44, current mark price 2349.81. This is the most profitable position among the three, achieving more than double returns by leveraging the downtrend in ETH with high leverage.
Trading idea: The short judgments on ETH and SOL are accurate, amplifying small market moves with high leverage. The maintenance margin rates of the two profitable positions both exceed 2000%, indicating a very thick safety buffer and almost no risk of forced liquidation.
Only the BTC short position shows a large floating loss. The 100x high leverage magnified a slight price rise of less than 700 points into nearly 70% loss. Although isolated margin mode prevents affecting other positions, it clearly shows a significant error in BTC price point judgment, a typical risky operation of "high leverage bearing small adverse fluctuations."
Overall, excess returns were gained on altcoin and the second-largest coin short positions, but there was a large drawdown on Bitcoin, the largest market cap and most liquid coin, indirectly reflecting BTC's strong bullish resilience in the current market, with very limited tolerance for counter-trend shorting.
This set of positions is a very representative sample of high-leverage contract trading. It demonstrates both the potential for huge profits with high leverage and fully exposes the risks of extreme leverage: if BTC price continues to rise slightly, this 100x short position could easily hit the liquidation line, potentially wiping out all the profits previously gained on ETH and SOL.
Many contract traders fall into the inertia of "using high leverage to bet on small fluctuations for quick profits," but they overlook the resilience of major coins in trending markets. Even if the overall trend direction is correct, high leverage struggles to withstand small adverse spikes along the way. This set of positions also confirms the simplest truth in contract trading: the higher the leverage, the stricter the precision required for the entry point. Once a judgment error occurs, previously accumulated profits can be completely lost in a short time.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#DTCC证券代币化服务正式上线 #StrategyQ3BTCGains Strategy's Q3 earnings report highlights how closely tied corporate equity has become to Bitcoin’s macro movements.
With preliminary figures showing an expected $20.9B Q3 fair-value gain on its digital asset portfolio, the company is set to bounce back strongly after consecutive quarters of accounting net losses.
As market estimates project an EPS of around $17.25 on roughly $128M in revenue, the primary focal point remains their "BTC Yield"Three coins, each taking its own wild path today
$ZEC 1,318, privacy coin rose 3.38% today 🥷
Zcash uses zero-knowledge proofs for on-chain privacy. At the 1318 level, large on-chain transfers are increasing. PCE rose to 3.1%, raising rate hike expectations, but privacy coins actually bounced — historically, when regulations tighten, they tend to bounce.
$BOME 0.0006648, meme coin rose 4.48% today 🐸
Book of Meme turns meme references into on-chain points. At 0.0006648, it rose slightly by 4.48% today. It has one more layer of retention than pure air coins — meme references on-chain cannot be deleted. But the market cap is light; for a rally, it needs the next viral spread.
$TRUMP 1.714, political meme rose 0.29% today 🎭
TRUMP has no financial reports; supply is fixed in the contract. At 1.714, the bid-ask spread is narrower than last week, indicating improving liquidity. But the lifeline of political memes is external events — when a figure hits the news, it jumps; when quiet for a week, volume shrinks.
#美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高
This article is for market analysis only and does not constitute investment advice. #تقرير استراتيجية ما قبل النتائج المالية: عائدات BTC المحققة ترتفع بشكل كبير
Update Bitcoin:
Another attempt to break the $81,200 resistance level failed. Breaking this level is crucial for the bullish trend to resume.
If the $79,000 support level is breached, the chances of an increase will be completely lost.$BTC $ETH The market is full of fluctuations; only by staying true to your original intention can you remain calm.
Always hovering above the support level of 2310 with three forms: wet kiss, wet kiss, lip lines, and flying kiss. The analyst says the wet kiss is a kind of entangled state, very tormenting.
First, let's talk about the volume changes I observed. The recent 4-hour candlestick showed increased volume, which differs from yesterday's 4-hour rise above 2340 into the core area. Whether this volume is effective needs further observation. If by 8 AM tomorrow two candlesticks close above 2340 with this volume cooperation, then this volume increase is deemed effective, and the price has effectively stabilized inside the core area.
Next, regarding the price movement trajectory, the key support at 2340 inside the core area has never been effectively held, but the daily level at 2300 was broken four times consecutively and immediately recovered each time. This indicates strong support at 2300, reflecting intense market divergence and risk awareness, with strong bullish and bearish conflicts.
Before entering, first examine whether the entry conditions are met, then act. Trading is not a casual game or a social gathering.$NEAR this 50x short position, floating profit 147.62%, opened short at 4.674, currently marked at 4.536.
The logic is solid: 1-hour chart shows a high spike at 4.813 followed by a pullback, 4.674 forms a double top resistance (S point), then breaks below 4.58 support. MA5/10/20 are tangled at 4.55/4.47/4.49, price is below the moving averages.
MACD shows a weak golden cross below zero line (DIFF -0.017), rebound lacks strength. 15-minute chart is weaker: continuous drop from 4.690, KDJ's J value at -14 indicates extreme oversold, MACD dead cross downward, short-term still has downward momentum.
But note the 15-minute J value is already negative, support near 4.415, with 50x leverage a 0.3% reversal can turn big profits into small ones.
Operation: reduce half position to lock profits at 4.58-4.60, move stop loss to breakeven at 4.62 for the base position, watch for a break at 4.394 to target 4.284. Don't be greedy with 147%, mainstream coins at 50x leverage are also on a knife edge, better to secure profits and hold the base position. $BTC $ZEC #美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高 $AAVE Bullish continuation remains unstoppable as persistent buying pressure pushes higher highs
Buy Zone: 134.00 - 135.30
Ep: 134.60
Tp: 146.00
Sl: 129.00
Let's go $AAVE
#OKXOrbitTopics .$SHIB Bullish energy is surging back into the chart as buyers aggressively defend the support floor
Buy Zone: 0.0000049000 - 0.0000050050
Ep: 0.0000049500
Tp: 0.0000055000
Sl: 0.0000047000
Let's go $SHIB
#OKXOrbitTopics .I emphasized this morning that the 81300 to 81800 range is a blind short zone. What happened? No rebound at all, it went straight down to around 79600. You think that's it? It bounced back to 81900 in the evening. Without hesitation, I continued to emphasize shorting near 81800, which was confirmed again!
In summary, I took 3533 points from BTC and 66 points from ETH.
First trade: Short BTC from 81183 to 79808, 1375 points
Second trade: Short ETH from 2376 to 2310, 66 points
Third trade: Long BTC from 79973 to 81314, 1341 points
Fourth trade: Short BTC from 81859 to 81042, 817 points
The resistance above remains strong. As long as it doesn't break, these are all opportunities. Just handle it with high shorts!!! $BTC $ETH SanDisk $SNDK Tonight's earnings report exceeding expectations is not difficult; the challenge is by how much.
First, let's look at its pace. FQ3 guidance was $12 to $14 per share, actual was 23.41; FQ4 guidance was 30 to 33, actual 39.25, revenue 8.97 billion, up 51% quarter-over-quarter, two-thirds driven by price increases. Gross margin rose from 78.4% to 84.6%, more than 3 points above the guidance ceiling.
This quarter's guidance is revenue of 10.3 to 10.8 billion, $44 to $46 per share, gross margin 83% to 85%, shares outstanding 155 million. Analysts average between 45.2 and 46.7, Wedbush is the most optimistic, betting on 11.45 billion revenue and $49 per share.
The trouble is price increases slowing down. TrendForce says NAND wafer prices have plateaued at a high level since September, consumer demand is weak, and Q4 contract price increases are narrowing. Gross margin is already around 85%, leaving little room to rise further; going forward, growth can only come from shipment volume. Fortunately, they said over half of shipments for fiscal 2027 are locked in with multi-year contracts, and Micron recently also beat expectations.
I calculated that for every additional $100 million in revenue, EPS increases by about $0.47; to push EPS above $47, revenue needs to reach 11 billion. Last quarter revenue exceeded guidance by 700 million, this quarter exceeding by 200 million would suffice. However, after last quarter's beat, the stock still fell 12% after hours; tonight the stock will focus more on next quarter's guidance, and if the midpoint is below this quarter's actual, the narrative that the price increase cycle has peaked will be confirmed. #闪迪存储业务高增长能否延续？ MicroStrategy's $MSTR Q3 earnings report released tonight had its answers already written in the 8-K filed three weeks ago.
On October 5, the company forecasted Q3 digital asset gains of $20.9 billion. Bitcoin rose from 58,500 at the end of June to 83,600 at the end of September, a 43% increase in one quarter, with book value rising from 49.67 billion to 70.82 billion. Last quarter, just the coin price caused an $8.3 billion loss, or $24.45 loss per share, but this quarter it completely reversed.
Taxes also helped. With the coin price back above cost, the $4.12 billion deferred tax asset from the end of June was reversed, and deferred tax expenses dropped from 6 billion to 1.88 billion. After deducting about $400 million in preferred stock dividends each quarter, diluted earnings per share are roughly $45 to $50, far exceeding the $8.67 expectation.
What should be watched more is Q4. In the first four days of October, it bought 334 coins at an average price of 85,839, holding 848,000 coins with an average cost of 75,441. But Bitcoin is now only around 79,800, nearly 5% below the quarter-end price, so the quarter started with a loss. It is also repurchasing STRC preferred stock, spending $176 million from late September to early October.
The big profit in Q3 is old news; tonight the market is more interested in what financing moves it will make next. #Strategy财报前瞻：BTC账面收益大幅反弹 #StrategyQ3BTCGains Strategy's Q3 earnings report highlights how closely tied corporate equity has become to Bitcoin’s macro movements.
With preliminary figures showing an expected $20.9B Q3 fair-value gain on its digital asset portfolio, the company is set to bounce back strongly after consecutive quarters of accounting net losses. "Today's Market Has Some Drama"
$BTC played dead at dawn, then suddenly flipped during the day: $81,511, up 1.19%. Core PCE rose to 3.1%, raising rate hike expectations louder, but the market didn't fall and instead rebounded, as if the bad news had already been priced in (￣▽￣)~*. It hovered around 80,000 for a week, and finally someone tried to push it up.
$WLD reported 0.4303, down 0.6%. World App user growth hasn't translated to the coin price; the cloud of biometric privacy regulation still lingers, so it can only sway with the broader market.
$BICO stole the spotlight: 0.01739, surged 9.72%, with volume clearly expanding to 12.08 million. The abstract story of accounts isn't new, and it lacks a breakout application. Is this big bullish candle a capital test or application warm-up? 👀
$OKB goes its own way, 113.69, up 3%. The perpetual contract cooperation between ICE and Trade.xyz continues to ferment, giving the platform token an independent rhythm.
$RE reported 0.375, the automatic compensation insurance pool is expanding, but volume is only 530,000, the market is thin, and for an independent trend, we still have to wait for large-scale chain-linked events ⚠️.
In short: the market is probing, platform tokens are stealing the show, and small coins await follow-up (๑•̀ㅂ•́)و✧
#美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高 Bulls are clearly more crowded, yet the bears got liquidated first? BTC, ETH, and HYPE are acting a bit strange!
Brothers, I just finished organizing the contract data from the morning of October 29 and found a rather unusual phenomenon.
First, look at $BTC price around $81,082, with a 5-minute long-short account ratio of 1.78, bulls accounting for 64%.
So what happened? In the past 4 hours, shorts were liquidated for $32.91 million, while longs only $3.84 million.
Looking at the liquidation heatmap, there's a bright yellow area near 82K, and a potential liquidation zone stacked near 79K below.
There is leverage both above and below; it's really hard to say who will get swept first.
Next, look at $ETH around $2,352, with a 24-hour open interest increase of 1.48%. Even more interesting, shorts were liquidated for $18.74 million in 4 hours, while longs only $4.88 million.
Finally, $HYPE is even more extreme.
Up nearly 19% in 24 hours, trading volume up 331%, open interest increased by 39.15%, shorts liquidated $16.09 million in 24 hours, while longs only $1.63 million.
Price rising, volume expanding, and open interest increasing—all three signals appear simultaneously, the market is indeed fierce.
My judgment: be more cautious chasing the rally in the short term, rather than simply betting on an immediate reversal.
BTC has dense liquidation zones both above and below, and after continuous rallies, HYPE has a large number of new positions entering; any rapid movement in either direction could be amplified.
What do you think will be swept first next, BTC above 82K, or back down to 79K? #美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高 #StrategyQ3BTCGains
Strategy Inc.’s expected $20.9B Q3 Bitcoin gain shifts the script from capital survival to elite balance sheet optimization.
Using this historic turnaround to execute massive STRC preferred stock buybacks is a masterclass in corporate finance. Management is smartly transitioning from forced crypto accumulation to a credit-first framework that aggressively retires high-cost debt and expands Net Asset Value (NAV).
$MSTR There have been some notable changes in the capital flows of Bitcoin and Ethereum.
According to the 24-hour spot inflow data, Bitcoin had a net inflow of $253 million over 24 hours, but after a surge, it started to see capital outflows, with a net outflow of $13 million in the last hour.
From the market performance perspective, Bitcoin experienced a pullback after the surge, indicating that there is still some selling pressure above. Although the inflow situation has improved, it does not necessarily mean the price will rise; it only shows that there are buyers willing to take positions at this level. Therefore, one should not rely solely on a single capital indicator but also consider price, trading volume, and spot buying and selling conditions.
As for Ethereum, the spot situation in the past 24 hours remains unfavorable, with a net outflow of $6.38 million. Initially, there was a slow re-inflow over 4 hours, but after the price surged and then pulled back, it turned back to outflows. The cumulative outflow in the last hour was $4.85 million.
Its capital situation is still not optimistic. Over the past 30 days, spot outflows have exceeded $3 billion, which has caused Ethereum's market to be relatively weak, with limited upward movement but significant declines. Going forward, it is necessary to monitor spot trading and whether the ETF subscription and redemption data can improve. The net outflow volume is gradually narrowing and may turn into a net inflow. There has been a divergence these past two days, and those watching the market closely should have felt it: The US stock market just hit a record high, tech stocks are partying one after another, even the VIX was pushed down; but on the $BTC side, it couldn't keep up at all—when risk assets rise, it doesn't; when risk assets fall back, it weakens first.
This is not an "independent market," but a sign of weakness in the crypto circle's own liquidity. When Bitcoin can't even rise riding on the US stock market's risk-on mood, it means there isn't enough new money entering; the market is just existing funds circulating among themselves.
Don't mistake the small rebound around eighty thousand these days as a bottom. The real bottom comes when volume and external funds return together, not when it’s just a handout from the US stock market's sentiment. Right now, that handout is very reluctant. $ETH is even weaker, not borrowing any strength at all.The Fed kept interest rates unchanged at 3.75%–4.00%, but two officials favored a rate hike, signaling that hawkish pressure remains. Recent BTC ETF inflows are adding another layer to the ongoing battle between buyers and sellers. 🔻 Key Resistance: $80,800–$82,000 🔹 Key Support: $79,000–$78,000 📉 My Market View Over the next 24–72 hours, BTC may remain volatile with a bearish bias. A decisive break below $79,000 could open the door to further downside toward $78,000 and lower. On the other hMany people reflexively think "hedge, buy some $BTC" when they see war in the Middle East or energy prices rising. I advise you to erase this muscle memory.
Tonight's data from Europe clearly illustrates the issue: benchmark natural gas futures have broken through 100 euros per megawatt-hour for the first time since the end of 2022; the EU itself warns that over 50 million residents cannot afford heating costs this winter. High energy prices are not a hedge signal, they are an inflation signal.
With inflation sticky, central banks dare not cut interest rates freely, real interest rates cannot come down, and zero-yield assets like BTC are the first to be drained. War pushes up oil prices, oil prices push up interest rate expectations, and interest rates are the hand pressing down on risk assets. So war has never been bullish for BTC; it’s just a disguised rate hike.All three are recovering after the recent drop, but a bounce alone doesn't confirm that the downtrend is over. The key now is whether buyers can defend support and sustain the recovery. 🔶 BTC: $80,000 is the first test. An hourly close above $80,000, followed by a successful retest, would support further recovery. Losing the previous 24-hour low at $79,710 could bring renewed selling pressure. 🔶 ETH: Watch $2,294. Holding this level would keep the recovery alive. An hourly breakdown followed bBTC and ETH are showing different short-term liquidation structures. The key is to watch the levels rather than chase the move. 🔻 BTC: Downside Risk Remains BTC is trading around $79,900, with a major long liquidation zone near $79,177. If $80,000 fails to hold, BTC could sweep liquidity around $79,200, potentially accelerating the downside. A strong reclaim of $81,000 with volume would improve the short-term outlook and bring $82,400 back into focus. 🔺 ETH: Watch for a Short Squeeze ETH is hoPCE Data Triggers a Market Bounce: $BTC , $ETH , $SOL , OKB and RE Move Higher $BTC — Bitcoin rebounds to $81,511 📊 September core PCE rose to 3.1%, keeping rate-hike concerns in focus. Despite the pressure from inflation expectations, BTC gained 1.19% today, climbing back to $81,511. After spending nearly a week hovering around $80,000, Bitcoin is finally showing renewed attempts to push higher. The key question is whether this rebound can develop into sustained upward momentum. $ETH — Ethereu$XRP XRP is lingering around 1.29, and on-chain whales have already moved 68.5% of the chips into their wallets.
The proportion of holdings in the hands of giant whales has directly hit a new cycle high.
Most of the spot holdings floating in the market have been mostly absorbed, while retail investors are still stuck on fluctuations of a few cents.
If the shorts still dare to hope for a deep squat here, they are simply asking to be squeezed even harder.
#XRP
$XRP
👇Here are 6 revised short-selling strategy versions for you:
*Version 1 - Original Professional Version*
> Direction: Short
> · Entry: Short when price rebounds and faces resistance around 145.00 - 145.50.
> · Stop Loss: Firm stop loss if price breaks above 147.50.
> · Take Profit: First target at 142.50 (near previous low), second target at 140.00.
> ⚠️ Note: After a steep drop from a high level, the market consolidates weakly; MACD runs below zero line, overall bearish strength is strong. Wait for rebound to confirm resistance, do not chase shorts directly, use light positions with stop loss.
*Version 2 - Minimalist Version*
> Direction: Short
> Entry: Short on rebound resistance at 145-145.5
> Stop Loss: Above 147.5
> Take Profit: 142.5 / 140
> Note: After cliff-like drop, weak consolidation, MACD below zero line, bears strong, short on rebound, do not chase shorts, use stop loss
*Version 3 - Trader Version*
> Direction: Short
> Entry: Short on rebound resistance at $145-145.5
> Stop Loss: Above $147.5
> Take Profit: TP1 at $142.5 previous low, TP2 at $140
> Note: After high-level waterfall drop, weak oscillation, MACD below zero line, bears dominate, wait for rebound to confirm resistance before entering
*Version 4 - Colloquial Version*
> This one looks bearish
> If it can't go above around 145 to 145.5, short it
> Run if it breaks 147.5
> First look for 142.5 below, then